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 Monday, March 02, 2009The double-unlucky pitching staffToday, I thought it would be interesting to look at players who were doubly unlucky in 2008. For readers who are in leagues with owners who know about some of the more advanced statistics, it might be difficult to get top value on a pitcher simply because he was unlucky with his BABIP last year. Here at THT Fantasy, though, we have access to stats (CAPS) that will tell us whether a pitcher got unlucky with his peripheral skills (K/9, BB/9, GB%), something your competitors surely don't have access to. As an example, most people know that Javier Vazquez has been unlucky for the past few years, but as we now know, he could actually be one of the top pitchers in baseball this year—not just a good one. While you won't be able to reap all of the value from his unlucky BABIPs and LOB%s, you will surely be able to reap the additional value from his unlucky peripherals. The same can be said for a number of other pitchers, a few of which I'd like to highlight today. The "Double-Unlucky Rotation"To qualify for the "Double-Unlucky Rotation," a pitcher's 2008 ERA must have been higher than his QERA, which must have been higher than his CAPS QERA. This indicates that not only was he unlucky with one or more of his luck indicators (BABIP, HR/FB, LOB%), but he was also unlucky with one or more of his peripheral stats (K/9, BB/9, GB%). Side-note If you're unfamiliar with CAPS (Context Adjusted Pitching Statistics), it's a stat I invented and then improved upon earlier this offseason. It's a stat that can't be found anywhere else and can give us a much better picture of a pitcher's true talent than unadjusted number. CAPS adjusts each of a pitcher's component stats based on the following factors:
Qualifications To qualify, a pitcher also must have thrown at least 100 innings in 2008, have a chance at a starting role in 2009, have a final CAPS QERA under 5.00 (to assure relevance to fantasy leaguers), and be selected by my subjective means (since there are more than five guys who fit this criteria). Without further ado, the "Double-Unlucky Starting Rotation": 1. Josh Beckett 2. Brett Myers 3. Pedro Martinez 4. Brian Bannister 5. Nate Robertson Note: All average draft position (ADP) data comes from Mock Draft Central and ESPN. Josh Beckett+------+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------+-------+------+-----------+-------+ | YEAR | AGE | IP | ERA | QERA | CAPS QERA | BABIP | HR/FB | LOB% | K/BB RI | xGB% | +------+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------+-------+------+-----------+-------+ | 2008 | 27 | 174.3 | 4.03 | 3.23 | 3.05 | 0.320 | 11.7 | 71 | 0.87/0.94 | 41/44 | +------+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------+-------+------+-----------+-------+ Beckett's bad luck isn't very noticeable in the underlying numbers, but as you can see, his CAPS QERA of 3.05 is a full point better than his actual ERA of 4.03. The original bad luck comes a little bit from BABIP, a little from HR/FB, and a little from LOB%. Put it all together and you get his QERA of 3.23. From there, the drop to 3.05 can mostly be attributed to his GB% being three percent lower than it should be, as well as a pinch of bad luck with his strikeouts and walks. In 2007, his CAPS QERA was 2.99, so Beckett could very well be the best pitcher in the AL in 2009. For those who bought Rotoworld's Draft Guide, you'll notice that Beckett was actually my pick for AL Cy Young. According to MDC, he's currently the 11th pitcher selected on average, the fifth from the AL, and is being taken at the beginning of the sixth round. This is later than is deserved, and he's even further down on ESPN's list as the 16th starter (although he's also going in the sixth round here). He makes a great pick if you decide to take pitchers early. A rotation topped by Beckett, Dan Haren, and Javier Vazquez would probably be the best in your league and could be acquired after round five. Brett Myers+------+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------+-----------+ | YEAR | AGE | IP | ERA | QERA | CAPS QERA | HR_FB | K_BB_RI | +------+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------+-----------+ | 2008 | 27 | 190.0 | 4.55 | 4.04 | 3.86 | 18 | 0.29/0.38 | +------+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------+-----------+ Unlike Beckett, Myers's bad luck is pretty easy to pick out. He had an 18 percent HR/FB rate, making up a large portion of the gap between his 4.55 ERA and his 4.04 QERA. The gap between that QERA and 3.86 CAPS QERA can be explained mostly by his BB/9 (3.1 to 2.8) but also a bit by his K/9 (7.7 to 7.85). Myers has a very strong history, so don't let his 2008 season deter you. From 2005 to 2008, his CAPS ERA was 3.46, 3.58, 3.16, and 3.86. 2008 was his worst, but at 27 years old and with a history like he has, I'm not worried at all. His CAPS HR/FB trend is a bit worrisome, though: 17.6, 14.2, 13.6, 16.3. Part of that is Citizens Bank Park, but part can also be attributed to Myers, and after four years I think it's safe to say he won't regress to league average. Even if he posts a 14 HR/FB, though, he should still be able to post an ERA under 4.00. He's currently the 31st starter being taken on Mock Draft Central, towards the end of Round 11, and has lasted as long as Round 15. On ESPN, he's the 51st starter taken, in Round 16. Pedro Martinez+------+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------+-------+-----------+-------+ | YEAR | AGE | IP | ERA | QERA | CAPS QERA | BABIP | HR/FB | K/BB RI | xGB% | +------+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------+-------+-----------+-------+ | 2008 | 36 | 109.0 | 5.61 | 4.69 | 4.47 | 0.329 | 16.5 | 0.03/0.13 | 41/43 | +------+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------+-------+-----------+-------+ Note: As Pedro is still a free agent, his 2008 home and road park factors are assumed to be neutral. This will change based upon the team he signs with. Pedro is getting up there in age, but he's not nearly as bad as that 5.61 ERA would indicate. He's still capable of fanning nearly 7.5 batters per game and maintaining respectable walk and groundball rates. He was extremely unlucky with his BABIP (0.329) and HR/FB (16.5 percent), making up a large portion of the ERA-CAPS QERA gap. Going from his QERA to his CAPS QERA, we see that he was aided by a combination of more strikeouts, fewer walks, and more ground balls. From 2004 to 2007, Pedro's CAPS QERAs were 3.13, 3.22, 3.49, and 3.21. While 2008 was significantly higher, there is some potential upside here because of that terrific past. Pedro doesn't make the top 71 pitchers listed on the ESPN ADP sheet, and he's the 99th pitcher on Mock Draft Central. That would put him towards the end of the 27th round, drafted only in deep mixed leagues. He's a guy who you could consider at the end of a moderate-depth mixed league and makes a solid sleeper pick in NL (or AL)-only leagues. Brian Bannister+------+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------------+-------+------+ | YEAR | AGE | IP | ERA | QERA | CAPS QERA | K/BB RI | xGB% | LOB% | +------+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------------+-------+------+ | 2008 | 27 | 182.7 | 5.76 | 5.05 | 4.85 | -0.23/-0.15 | 38/40 | 64 | +------+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------------+-------+------+ Everyone's favorite sabermetrician was thought by many to have taken a big step backwards this year after posting a 3.87 ERA in 2007. While we all knew that he was lucky and that he would regress, in 2008 he went too far the other way. His CAPS QERA is nearly a full point lower than his actual ERA as he suffered from an absurd 64 percent LOB%. CAPS also thought his strikeouts, walks, and ground balls should have been better. With a 4.85 ERA, Bannister would be plenty good enough to own in an AL-only league. Bannister's CAPS QERA has been on the rise for the past three years, moving from 6.67 to 5.09 to 4.85. If he sees anymore improvement, he could become noteworthy in deep mixed leagues. Bannister is not listed on ESPN's ADP sheet or MDC's mixed league sheet. He is being drafted as the 46th starter in MDC NL-only leagues, at the end of round 16. He could probably stand to be taken a little earlier, ahead of guys like Fausto Carmona, Glen Perkins, and Anthony Reyes. Nate Robertson+------+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------+-------+------+-------------+ | YEAR | AGE | IP | ERA | QERA | CAPS QERA | BABIP | HR_FB | LOB% | K_BB_RI | +------+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------+-------+------+-------------+ | 2008 | 30 | 168.7 | 6.35 | 4.97 | 4.70 | 0.350 | 14 | 64 | -0.27/-0.11 | +------+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------+-------+------+-------------+ Robertson was so "bad" in 2008 that he lost his rotation spot towards the end of the season, making his final four appearances out of the bullpen. He got incredibly unlucky, though, with his BABIP (0.350), LOB% (64%), and HR/FB (14%), leading to a 4.97 QERA that was much better than his 6.35 actual ERA. CAPS also sees his strikeout and walk skills to be better than they were as well, resulting in a final 4.70 CAPS QERA. Since 2005, Robertson has posted CAPS QERAs of 4.61, 4.46, and 4.67, putting his 2008 figure right in line with the rest. I'd expect some big-time improvement for Robertson's surface numbers in 2008, although he'll need to impress the Tigers in spring training to get a spot in the rotation. He has Zach Miner, Dontrelle Willis, and prospect Rick Porcello to worry about. He's currently the 66th pitcher off the board in MDC AL-only leagues, being drafted in round 21 on average. He makes a great speculative pick here and has a lot of profit potential if he manages to make the Tigers' rotation. Continue to monitor the situation throughout spring training. Posted by Derek Carty at 1:07am (5) Comments Overrated for 2009In this following article, I'm going to be looking at a few players who I think will be overrated in 2009. However, the whole concept of overrated and underrated depends a lot on your league construct. For example, if you're playing with friends from your hometown, players from your area may be valued more highly than normal. Thus, the following article will look at overrated players in general. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas: Kinsler clearly has a great skill set with strong power and speed skills while playing a premium position. However, remember that Kinsler is still a guy who has yet to put together a full season worth of at bats. Kinsler has been around a late first round pick in most drafts I've seen. I think Kinsler just has too much risk to invest a first round pick in. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay: Longoria was very good in his major league debut last season and showcased some serious power skills. However, he's a guy who has still only played in one major league season, meaning there's less reliability with his projection. Additionally, there is some batting average downside with Longoria. With the risk he brings, I would make lean towards a guy like Aramis Ramirez over Longoria, even though Longoria might provide some additional upside. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia: Hamels has a tremendous skill set, one of the best in the game. However, he will be coming off a innings increase (don't forget the postseason innings he pitched). He definitely has the skill and talent of a starter who should be picked in the top three or four rounds. But is Hamels' injury risk something you want to take on that early? Chris Davis, 1B/3B, Texas: I took a more in depth look at Davis in a past article. A lot of people will be tempted by Davis' power potential. However, like the guys mentioned before him, Davis carries quite a bit of risk. With the spots he has gone in in recent mock draft, I would try to avoid Davis. You can get power elsewhere without taking as much risk. Carlos Zambrano, SP, Chicago (NL): Zambrano showed signs of his past workload catching up with him last year, and the injury risk with him still remains. He has another big warning flag with his declining strikeout rate over the last few years. All in all, Zambrano is guy whose skill set is not that impressive. When you combine this with his injury risk, Zambrano is a player who carries a lot of downside risk. Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston: On the surface, Matsuzaka had an excellent year last year with an 18-3 record and a sparkling 2.90 ERA. However, his skills really declined as his walk rate shot up and his strikeout rate went down. Overall, the skill set he has displayed over his first two major league seasons has not been that impressive. Many people have noted that Matsuzaka's approach last year was to try and avoid hard contact, which would help explain why he had such a low BABIP. However, it's really easy to fit a story to a past event. I wouldn't want to take the risk that would be involved with finding if Matsuzaka has a unique skill to help control his BABIP. Jermaine Dye, OF, Chicago (AL): Dye has been pretty durable during his stay with the White Sox. In fact, he has been fairly durable for the last five years. However, Dye will be entering his age-35 season next year and his risk of collapse and injury only continue to climb as he gets older. You should be able to get a player with a little more upside and less risk, maybe someone like Andre Ethier, at a similar position as Dye. Posted by Victor Wang at 1:08am (8) Comments Tuesday, March 03, 2009Benching a superstar is madness. Or is it?Would you ever consider benching one of your top draft picks for 20 percent of his games? If your initial response resembles something like "Are you nuts?," consider how Adrian Gonzalez performed in 2008 against right-handed pitching and left-handed pitching: Adrian Gonzalez vs. righties: 381 AB, .320 AVG, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 76 R, 0 SB Adrian Gonzalez vs. Lefties: 235 AB, .213 AVG, 12 HR, 38 RBI, 27 R, 0 SB As seen above, "A-Go" has a horrible time hitting for anything other than a bit of power against left-handed pitchers. He's not alone: Grady Sizemore, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Pena, David Ortiz and Brad Hawpe are just a few left-handed stars who hit significantly better against righties than they do against lefties. As baseball fans, we've grown up with a simple truth: Lefties hit righties better, and vice versa. In the major leagues, managers exploit platoons all the time to deal with this phenomenon. In some cases, fantasy managers may wish to do the same. On my blog, I've explored better use of reserve spots for a fantasy bench, including the use of platoons. In most instances, this might mean shuffling left-handed players with noticeable splits in and out of the active lineup to maximize production from a single roster position. Players like Luke Scott, Skip Schumaker and Shin-Soo Choo should come relatively cheap in drafts and auctions. Rostering two, and interchanging them in a lineup depending on a given day's match-up, is a fairly effective way to not only increase production at one spot, but also save some auction money or a top draft pick to fill another hole. The sacrifice that a fantasy baseball manager gives for this luxury is a bench spot, some roster flexibility, and six months of getting up each morning to check on pitching match-ups. That leads us to an interesting and almost unthinkable question: Might we try the same thing with a superstar and improve upon his production? To do an analysis, we've had to make some basic assumptions after some research on the percentage of right-handed starting pitchers in baseball (about 70 percent) and the average number of times a left-handed batter could expect to see left-handed and right-handed relief pitchers in a single game. From that, we deduced we'd be playing a star like Adrian Gonzalez approximately 80 percent of his starts (some vs. lefties out of necessity). Given that, we'd expect to retain about 94 percent of his stats vs. right-handed pitchers and about 57 percent of his stats vs. left-handed pitchers. We'd be using a cheap platoon partner like Lyle Overbay (.291 AVG, 15 HR, 61 RBI, 61 R, and a steal vs. righties in 2008) for the rest, accumulating approximately 26 percent of his stats vs. righties and about 10 percent of his stats vs. lefties. We didn't adjust for strength of pitching, but what's the outcome? Adrian Gonzalez in 2008: 616 AB, .279 AVG, 36 HR, 119 RBI, 103 R, 0 steals Our platoon: 610 AB, .289 AVG, 34 HR, 115 RBI, 104 R, 0 steals In other words, pretty close and unfortunately, inconclusive. Still, the strategy holds promise, especially if we see Gonzalez' stats regress this season or if we could use the waiver wire for better replacement stats. Performances vary year-to-year and small sample sizes can be especially tricky to navigate, unbeholden to the law of averages. To be honest, we don't think we'd have the guts to actually try this out for real on any player rated as a fifth-round pick and above. But for players like Carlos Pena or Brad Hawpe? No hesitation whatsoever. Posted by Eriq Gardner at 1:01am (10) Comments THT’s 2009 season rankingsThe Fantasy Focus section of the Hardball Times is one of the most well-rounded fantasy sites. With a strong group of writers, we are able to produce daily content covering new statistics, player analysis and fantasy baseball theory. One thing we lacked, though, was rankings; regular old position-by-position rankings. To fill the void, I asked the Fantasy Focus writers to submit their personal rankings for the 2009 season. I then compiled all the lists and came up with the composite ranking for each player by position. Here are the results (which will be updated regularly until the start of the season): +--------------------------+--------------------+----------------------+-----------------------+ | Catcher | First Base | Second Base | Third Base | +--------------------------+--------------------+----------------------+-----------------------+ | 1 Brian McCann | 1 Albert Pujols | 1 Chase Utley | 1 David Wright | | 2 Joe Mauer | 2 Miguel Cabrera | 2 Ian Kinsler | 2 Alex Rodriguez | | 3 Russell Martin | 3 Mark Teixeira | 3 Dustin Pedroia | 3 Miguel Cabrera | | 4 Geovany Soto | 4 Ryan Howard | 4 Brian Roberts | 4 Kevin Youkilis | | 5 Victor Martinez | 5 Lance Berkman | 5 Brandon Phillips | 5 Aramis Ramirez | | 6 Ryan Domuit | 6 Prince Fielder | 6 Robinson Cano | 6 Chipper Jones | | 7 Chris Iannetta | 7 Justin Morneau | 7 Alexei Ramirez | 7 Evan Longoria | | 8 Jorge Posada | 8 Kevin Youkilis | 8 Dan Uggla | 8 Garrett Atkins | | 9 Matt Wieters | 9 Adrian Gonzalez | 9 Kelly Johnson | 9 Aubrey Huff | | 9 Bengie Molina | 10 Joey Votto | 10 Rickie Weeks | 10 Adrian Beltre | | 11 AJ Pierzynski | 11 Derrek Lee | 11 Placido Polanco | 11 Ryan Zimmerman | | 11 Ramon Hernandez | 12 Aubrey Huff | 12 Howie Kendrick | 12 Chris Davis | | 13 Mike Napoli | 13 Carlos Pena | 13 Mark DeRosa | 13 Chone Figgins | | 14 Kelly Shoppach | 14 Carlos Delgado | 14 Jose Lopez | 14 Edwin Encarnacion | | 15 Dioner Navarro | 15 James Loney | 15 Aaron Hill | 15 Jorge Cantu | | 16 Jarrod Saltalamaccia | 16 Garrett Atkins | 16 Ian Stewart | 16 Alex Gordon | | 17 Pablo Sandoval | 17 Conor Jackson | 17 Felipe lopez | 17 Carlos Guillen | | 18 Brandon Inge | 18 Adam Dunn | 17 Orlando Hudson | 18 Mark DeRosa | | 19 Ivan Rodriguez | 19 Chris Davis | 18 Freddy Sanchez | 19 Mark Reynolds | | 20 Kurt Suzuki | 20 Pablo Sandoval | | 19 Troy Glaus | | 20 Jeff Clement | | | 19 Hank Blalock | +--------------------------+--------------------+----------------------+-----------------------+ +---------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-------------------------+ | Shortstop | Outfield | Starting Pitcher | Relief Pitcher | +---------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-------------------------+ | 1 Hanley Ramirez | 1 Grady Sizemore | 1 Johan Santana | 1 Jonathan Papelbon | | 2 Jose Reyes | 2 Ryan Braun | 2 Tim Lincecum | 2 Mariano Rivera | | 3 Jimmy Rollins | 3 Carlos Beltran | 3 CC Sabathia | 2 Joe Nathan | | 4 Alexei Ramirez | 4 Matt Holliday | 4 Jake Peavy | 4 Francisco Rodriguez | | 5 Derek Jeter | 5 Alfonso Soriano | 5 Brandon Webb | 5 Joakim Soria | | 6 Troy Tulowitzki | 6 Carlos Lee | 5 Cole Hamels | 6 Brad Lidge | | 7 JJ Hardy | 7 Josh Hamilton | 7 Dan Haren | 7 Jonathan Broxton | | 8 Rafael Furcal | 8 BJ Upton | 7 Roy Halladay | 8 Carlos Marmol | | 9 Stephen Drew | 9 Carl Crawford | 9 Josh Beckett | 9 Jose Valverde | | 9 Michael Young | 10 Manny Ramirez | 10 Ervin Santana | 10 Brian Fuentes | | 11 Jhonny Peralta | 11 Nick Markakis | 11 John Lackey | 11 Bobby Jenks | | 12 Miguel Tejada | 12 Matt Kemp | 12 James Shields | 12 BJ Ryan | | 13 Orlando Cabrera | 13 Ichiro Suzuki | 13 Chad Billingsley | 13 Francisco Cordero | | 14 Yunel Escobar | 14 Vladimir Guerrero | 14 Roy Oswalt | 14 Kerry Wood | | 15 Edgar Renteria | 15 Alex Rios | 15 Joba Chaimberlan | 15 Heath Bell | | 16 Mike Aviles | 16 Jason Bay | 16 Felix Hernandez | 15 Huston Street | | 17 Ryan Theriot | 17 Curtis Granderson | 17 Cliff Lee | 17 Matt Capps | | 18 Christan Guzman | 18 Jacoby Ellsbury | 18 Javier Vazquez | 18 Chad Qualls | | 18 Kahlil Greene | 19 Bobby Abreu | 18 Scott Kazmir | 19 Brian Wilson | | | 20 Carlos Quentin | 20 Francisco Liriano | 20 Trevor Hoffman | | | 21 Magglio Ordonez | 21 Daisuke Matsuzaka | 21 Joey Devine | | | 22 Nate McLouth | 22 Matt Cain | 22 Rafael Perez | | | 23 Shane Victorino | 23 Edison Volquez | 23 Grant Balfour | | | 24 Corey Hart | 23 AJ Burnett | 24 Mike Gonzalez | | | 25 Adam Dunn | 25 Jon Lester | 25 Chris Perez | | | 26 Torii Hunter | 26 Adam Wainwright | 26 Frank Francisco | | | 26 Hunter Pence | 27 Yovani Gallardo | 27 Joel Hanrahan | | | 28 Jermain Dye | 28 Rich Harden | | | | 29 Vernon Wells | 29 Ricky Nolasco | | | | 30 Raul Ibanez | 30 Aaron Harang | | | | 31 Johnny Damon | 31 Carlos Zambrano | | | | 32 Jay Bruce | 32 Jered Weaver | | | | 33 Andre Ethier | 33 Erik Bedard | | | | 34 Brad Hawpe | 34 Zach Greinke | | | | 34 Ryan Ludwick | 35 Justin Verlander | | | | 36 Nelson Cruz | 36 Scott Baker | | | | 37 Chris Young | 37 Derek Lowe | | | | 38 Conor Jackson | 38 Chris Young | | | | 38 Justin Upton | 39 Josh Johnson | | | | 40 Delmon Young | 39 Matt Garza | | | | 41 Mlton Bradley | 39 Brett Myers | | | | 42 Fred Lewis | 42 John Danks | | | | 43 Jason Werth | 42 Ted Lilly | | | | 44 Adam Lind | 44 Kevin Slowey | | | | 45 Jeff Francoeur | 45 David Price | | | | 45 Adam Jones | 46 Chien-Ming Wang | | | | 47 Lastings Milledge | 47 Ryan Dempster | | | | 47 Carlos Gomez | 48 Max Scherzer | | | | 48 Cameron Maybin | 49 John Smoltz | | | | 49 Hideki Matsui | 49 Gil Meche | | | | 49 Shin Soo-Choo | 51 Clayton Kershaw | | | | 51 Xavier Nady | 52 Chris Volstad | | | | 51 David DeJesus | 53 Johnny Cueto | | +---------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-------------------------+ Posted by Paul Singman at 4:50am (11) Comments Wednesday, March 04, 2009Fun with Road Park FactorsI had a different plan for today's article, but as 1) my initial idea fell through and 2) I've been spending a good deal of time preparing for my LABR draft this weekend, I thought we'd make today a lighter day. A few weeks ago I introduced Road Park Factors which essentially tell us the aggregate quality of all road parks a player plays in. Today, I thought we'd play around a little bit with these park factors and see what kinds of insights we can glean. First, let's look at teams who will be seeing a more favorable road schedule in 2009 in terms of HR/FB. Teams+-----------+------+ | TEAM | DIFF | +-----------+------+ | Phillies | 2.2% | | Marlins | 1.9% | | Rays | 1.9% | | Dodgers | 1.9% | | Pirates | 1.6% | | Astros | 1.6% | | Cardinals | 1.6% | +-----------+------+ The Phillies will actually be going from seeing their road parks deflating homers in 2008 to inflating them in 2009. The jump of 2.2 percent leads all major league teams for 2009. While individual player rates may vary a bit, you can pretty safely add a tick of value to the power hitters on these teams. This might be particularly bad news for Brett Myers, though, who was one of the focal points of Monday's article. He's doesn't seem to be a guy who will regress to a league average HR/FB, and he would really need a beneficial road schedule to help keep it down. That's not going to be the case in 2009. Now let's look at the teams who will see a less favorable road schedule in terms of HR/FB. +-----------+-------+ | TEAM | DIFF | +-----------+-------+ | Athletics | -1.3% | | Rockies | -1.3% | | Royals | -1.3% | | Brewers | -1.1% | | Tigers | -1.0% | +-----------+-------+ The A's, Rockies, and Royals are in a virtual tie for first here. Again, while individual rates may vary, you should be safe taking a small tick of value away from power hitters on these teams. Pitchers on these teams, obviously, will be aided. Now let's see who has the easiest HR/FB road schedule overall: +-----------+------+ | TEAM | 2009 | +-----------+------+ | Pirates | 6.0% | | Padres | 4.7% | | Giants | 4.1% | | Marlins | 4.1% | | Astros | 3.2% | | Braves | 3.2% | | Cardinals | 3.0% | +-----------+------+ The Pirates have the easiest schedule, although they also had a somewhat easy one last year. League-mates Houston and St. Louis also are above 3 percent, so this isn't a big surprise. As far as teams with the most difficult schedule, that would be the White Sox and Rangers at -3.3 and -3.2 percent, respectively. Individual playersLooking at individual players, we see that Paul Konerko, Michael Young, and Josh Hamilton played on the teams with the worst schedules and caught the worst of the luck of any player on their respective teams (seeing nearly five percent deflation each). Each should improve by at least 1 percent despite their teams still having the worst schedules in 2009. Alex Rodriguez was the first non-Ranger or White Sox player to appear on the list, and he should improve by 2.5 percent in 2009. Teammate Robinson Cano should improve by a point-and-a-half—just one more reason why I like him this year. Shane Victorino's homers should inflate by 3.5 percent, partially due to bad luck in 2008 and partially due to the Phillies' improving schedule. Raul Ibanez should get a 2.8 percent boost as the newest member of the Phillies, plus the associated boost of moving to the National League. Chris B. Young will get a 1.7 percent boost out in the desert. As for those who stand to see some deflation, Jason Bay should see one of the biggest drop-offs at 4.8 percent. Surprisingly enough, despite playing half the year for the Pirates, his inflation rate in Pittsburg was a somewhat-normal 5.4 percent. In Boston, it was an absurd 8.8 percent. Regression's coming here. David DeJesus should see a 2.9 percent drop, Ryan Garko should see a 2.4 percent drop, and Mark Teixeira should see a 2.3 percent drop. Carlos Beltran should see deflation of 1.4 percent and Carlos Delgado 1.3 percent. Mark Ellis's road park factor should drop by 3.9 percent and Miguel Cabrera's by 1.8 percent. Concluding thoughtsWhile home run park factors are somewhat crude and don't always tell the whole story for a hitter (see HitTracker's Greg Rybarczyk's article in the 2009 Hardball Times Annual or his article at The Baseball Analysts for some great discussion on this), hopefully this was a fun little exercise. If you have any questions, feel free to let me know. Posted by Derek Carty at 2:05am (2) Comments The endowment effect and trade proposalsThe endowment effect states that people place a higher value on items they already own as opposed to items they want but do not own. Victor Wang touched upon this concept briefly in this article, and I want to elaborate on it, since I think it is a bias that occurs frequently, yet is one that is frequently overlooked. This is somewhat similar to the prospect theory concept, loss aversion, proposed by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. Allow me to present a study to help explain this phenomenon in greater detail. Ziv Carmon and Dan Ariely conducted a field survey amongst randomly picked students of Duke University. The students were asked for the highest price they would pay for a ticket to the tournament, assuming they didn't already have a ticket (buying price). A second question asked for the lowest price they would agree to sell a ticket for, assuming they owned one (selling price). In addition to these questions, two factors were manipulated across the group of students, and were incorporated into the initial scenario. The first factor was the original face value of the ticket ($10, $30 or $100) while the second factor was the importance of the game (a regular season game or the NCAA championship game). Carmon and Ariely found that the selling price of a ticket was considerably higher than the buying price. On average, the lowest price at which owners would sell a ticket was $2,411 while the highest price of those seeking to buy a ticket was $166, a difference of $2,245. The results also showed that the significance of a game had a greater impact on selling price while the original face value of a ticket had greater impact on buying price. These findings suggest that buying price corresponds more closely to variables relating to the expenditure while selling price corresponds more closely to factors relating to the attitude toward surrendering a ticket (e.g. the significance of the game). Students also gave explanations for their responses, and the most common explanations for the selling price scenario were "this is a once in a lifetime opportunity" and "I will never forgive myself if I end up missing a great game". On the other hand, the most common explanation for the buying price scenario was "there are lots of other things I could do with my money". These comments further support the idea that buyers and sellers focus on different aspects of an exchange. To reiterate, buyers tend to focus more on the money they would pay for an item whereas sellers concentrate on the act of giving up the item. In the aforementioned article linked above, Victor mentions how the endowment effect can often delay or even prevent a trade from occurring. Without a doubt this effect can help explain various situations. Realize that in sending a trade proposal, you are effectively acting as the buyer and the opposing manager is acting as the seller. And unless your trade proposal is one that your opposing manager had already been targeting, I suspect that his initial reaction would be that of reluctance. According to the findings of Carmon and Ariely, this makes perfect sense as the owner of an item values his possessions at a higher price since they concentrate more on the loss of the item. So the manager, at least at first glance, will tend to overvalue those players you ask for because he has instinctively inflated the value of those players simply because he owns them, and he doesn't really want to give them up. The flip-side of this, of course, is that your proposal might be garbage to begin with because, according to Carmon and Ariely, as a buyer, you are concentrating on the amount you would have to pay for the item. So as a result, you may be offering the absolute bare-minimum (not that there's anything horribly wrong with that). I think awareness of this concept can be very useful, not just in terms of assigning a proper value to your own players, but in possibly manipulating your opponent into making mistakes. During trade talks, you can phrase your messages in a manner that frames your proposal in terms of what your opponent will gain rather than what he will lose. Show the opposing manager what stats, categories or points he will be gaining as opposed to losing. In addition to this, focus on the notion that some of his stats will be replaced by whomever his replacement player is. Remember, as a seller, the opposing manager is already overvaluing his players. But in order to get a trade done without overpaying, you need to help release him of this instinctive attachment and awareness of the endowment effect, combined with carefully chosen words and numbers, can help immensely. Posted by Marco Fujimoto at 4:01am (13) Comments Thursday, March 05, 2009Picking one player per roundIt's an exercise I run through at least a dozen times every year. Look at the projected rankings or average draft positions of players on your fantasy site, and try to figure out how to construct a team from each of the possible draft slots. I'm going to use ESPN's rankings as a guide, and go under the yes-I-know-it's-ridiculous assumption that everyone else drafts precisely according to the given rankings. What draft slot should I assume I start in? I'll use a random number generator, assuming a 12-person league. (dramatic pause) Looks like its a four. All right, one last assumption: to keep things simple, we'll use a small roster: one of each of C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, seven pitchers, plus a bench of five. ROUND 1, PICK 4: David Wright. This is perhaps the best pick to get in a snake draft. While I like Pujols a lot this year, Wright is arguably the best-projected player for 2009. Third base is looking a little weaker than in years past due to guys like Scott Rolen, Troy Glaus, and Garrett Atkins slowing down, and Chipper Jones due for a major regression (and/or season-ending surgery), and newcomers like Evan Longoria having enough playing time last year to be seeded appropriately for his age and skill level. ROUND 2, PICK 21: Chase Utley. I swear I didn't plan this. I used a random number generator available at Random.org, and it appears I've given myself the best possible situation. There are some injury concerns here, and Utley may miss a chunk of time at the beginning of the season. But without these concerns, he's easily a first-rounder when you consider the lack of talent at 2B. Ian Kinsler has not made a believer out of me yet, and I'm not certain Dustin Pedroia has as much home run power as he displayed last year. I'll take the risk on Utley because hip injuries, in my never-took-an-anatomy-class expert opinion, are nowhere near as debilitating or recurring as a wrist or back injury, or that weird thing that Rocco Baldelli has. ROUND 3, PICK 28: Matt Holliday. While ESPN has Holliday ranked as the 32nd most expensive player, I think this is a little low. Certainly, his power and average will tail off as he no longer hits in Coors against NL pitching. But, the humidor has been used for quite some time now, and there is believed to be a Coors "hangover" effect such that Coors hitters actually perform worse on the road than you'd otherwise expect. So simply taking Holliday's road stats and projecting that as his line for 2009 is pretty unwise. If Holliday is around in the late 20s, or certainly the early 30s, he's worth picking up. My hunch, however, is that he'll go in the late teens. as fantasy managers are unwilling to believe the degree to which Coors still impacts players' line drive and home run rates, as well as a pitcher's ability to put movement on a ball. ROUND 4, PICK 45: Vladimir Guerrero. It looks like I'm simply picking names that were good a few years ago, but that's not the case. ESPN has Kevin Youkilis, Felix Hernandez, Aramis Ramirez, and Vlad all clustered around the 45th slot. I already have a 3B, so Youkilis isn't worth it here, nor is Aramis; I am a huge proponent of keeping one's Util slot open for as long as possible. Felix seems incredibly overrated this high, but some folks just see through rose-colored glasses and miss the fact that his peripherals haven't changed at all in three years and he may have topped out talent-wise. Vlad is declining, but he can still get you a few steals, a .300 BA, and solid R and RBI numbers due to his prime position in the lineup. ROUND 5, PICK 52: Russell Martin. I hate to take a catcher here, it goes against my rules for drafting to pick a catcher at this point, but I've begun to be swayed by the arguments of other fantasy writers on this site. Martin projects very well, and I don't want to take an OF here (ESPN's numbers have Alex Rios still available) and fill the position. ROUND 6, PICK 69: Derek Jeter. The karmic gods are angry, as a Boston resident just took Jeter over the also-available David Ortiz (ESPN rank: 70). Let me be clear: I think Ortiz is very underrated at pick 70. However, I have a few reasons for picking Jeter here. For one thing, the only SS left I'd be happy with is Rafael Furcal. For another, wrist injuries always scare me (*ahem*), so I'm not too confident in Ortiz' ability to bounce back this year. And finally, I'll go back to what I said above: I am a huge proponent of leaving the Util spot open for as long as possible. I've watched players fall as much as 50 spots below their rank, all because a few drafters didn't have a Util spot open, and maybe those who did got wrapped up in a run on closers. I'm always upset that I'm not That Guy who ends up with someone 50 spots later than he should have gone; this year, I want to be That Guy. ROUND 7, PICK 76: Scott Kazmir. At this point, ESPN has a run of SPs, along with Torii Hunter and Johnny Damon. I'll pick Kazmir because he's consistent and because I just realized he turned 25 a month ago. It feels like he's been around forever, but he's actually still on the upswing of his career arc. ROUND 8, PICK 93: Javier Vazquez. There's a ton of underrated talent here, including Garrett Atkins and Raul Ibanez (from Seattle's ballpark to Philly's? Yes, please). Kerry Wood may be a reasonable pick, as might Hunter Pence. But I'll take Vazquez's steady peripherals translated to the NL. ROUND 9, PICK 100: Joey Votto. I like the projected power numbers, and I'm getting a little nervous that I won't have a solid 1B if I keep waiting. I don't want to end up with Todd Helton, unless someone puts him in touch with Alex Rodriguez's cousin. ROUND 10, PICK 117: Aaron Harang. I'm not happy with my choices here at all; I've filled all of my position slots except one OF slot and my Util. At this point, my best bet is to choose a solid pitcher who's absolutely no-questions-asked better than a replacement SP. I could pick Edinson Volquez, but I don't like his walk rate and I think people have seen his stuff enough by this time; he won't be surprising anyone. I'll go with Harang, who's due for a regression back to where he used to be, and in my eyes a safer bet than Volquez. ROUND 11, PICK 124: Trevor Hoffman. I'm hurting for a closer at this point, and I believe Hoffman will have a long leash with Milwaukee; the fact that they let Eric Gagne pitch past April last year is proof of that. Hoffman's strikeout rate is hurting, but he still keeps the walks down and should rack up the saves. ROUND 12, PICK 141: Justin Upton. He's 22 this year, still on the upswing of his career, and check out what this guy did when he was 22. ROUND 13, PICK 148: Brad Ziegler. No, he's not as good as his scoreless innings streak, but he'll get the majority of the A's saves without letting the ball out of the park too much. ROUND 14, PICK 165: Carlos Delgado. This is what I want out of my Util. I've got a ton of good BA guys, and despite his age, Delgado is a good pick here. We're at the point at which guaranteed saves are no longer available, so I'll finish off my hitters while I can. ROUND 15, PICK 172: Clayton Kershaw. Rolling the dice here; he's young, and he may put it together. If not, I've got no qualms about dropping a 15th round pick in favor of a free agent replacement player who's getting more playing time than folks thought he would get at draft time. ROUND 16, PICK 189: John Danks. I'd also accept arguments for Chien-Ming Wang. ROUND 17, PICK 196: David Price. He may not fall this far due to the hype from last year. I'm happy to take a utility guy like Mark DeRosa here instead, or a steals guy like Ryan Theriot. ROUND 18, PICK 213: Grant Balfour. Will he be the closer for the Rays this year? He's got a ton of competition, but I'll take a chance on him in the 200s. His strikeout rate, ERA and WHIP may also be good enough as a setup man to be worth the pick here. With remaining picks, I'd look to fill out my bench with an April backup for Chase Utley and a few high-upside guys like Ben Sheets or John Smoltz. Here's what the team of starters looks like: C: Russell Martin 1B: Joey Votto 2B: Chase Utley SS: Derek Jeter 3B: David Wright OF: Matt Holliday OF: Vladimir Guerrero OF: Justin Upton Util: Carlos Delgado P: Scott Kazmir P: Javier Vazquez P: Aaron Harang P: Trevor Hoffman P: Brad Ziegler P: Clayton Kershaw P: John Danks Very, very solid. I think in a 12-person draft, the fourth slot might be the best place to draft from. There's a bit of a drop-off after the fifth slot, and I'd be happy to have the choice between David Wright and Jose Reyes. Some picks are of course unpredictable; I'd be far less happy with this draft if another manager broke the script and nabbed Votto or Jeter in front of me and forced me to wait longer to fill 1B and SS. Keeping my Util options open allowed a nice late pickup of Delgado. I'm also a proponent of the power of free-agent pitching. Pitcher ERAs vary wildly at the beginning of the season, and there are always a few managers who succumb to small sample size and drop guys they shouldn't. A strong-hitting team can fortify its weakness in pitching during the season by picking up the players with good peripherals who were dropped too soon. Even getting to the point at which you have average pitching, combined with the lineup of hitters above, would make for a great chance at a bye week during the playoffs. Posted by Michael Lerra at 5:24am (19) Comments Friday, March 06, 2009Winning Yahoo fantasy baseball leaguesDespite the proliferation of fantasy baseball formats, Yahoo’s free fantasy baseball leagues remain the most popular. They’re free, easy, and have enough features to satisfy most players. Although leagues can be customized, by far the most popular option is the default configuration public leagues, where 12 strangers are matched against each other. These leagues use “5X5” scoring and daily transactions. What follows are some tips that will help you win these leagues. In fact, these tips should work equally well in any daily transactions leagues with similar scoring and roster configuration rules. 1. Make heavy use of middle relieversMy entire strategy in these leagues springs from the ability to use middle relievers with favorable matchups each day to lower my team’s ERA and WHIP and add to my strikeouts and wins totals. As much as possible, I’ll fill my active roster with middle relievers. I’m looking for middle relievers with high strikeout rates, low walk rates, and facing teams with bad offenses in pitchers’ parks. I usually try to have three or four closers on my team, so any additional pitching roster slots that aren’t filled with starting pitchers are generally going to have middle relievers in them. Those with starting pitcher eligibility are especially valuable, because they can be used in the roster slots devoted to starting pitchers. 2. Draft hitters with your early picksMost good fantasy baseball players tend to pick hitters early in any case, but in these leagues that’s a particularly good idea. You’ll be able to improve your pitching statistics dramatically through your use of middle relievers, so you can be among the top teams in most pitching categories with an otherwise average staff. Or you can be in the middle of the pack in the pitching categories with an otherwise inferior pitching staff. That’s generally going to be good enough, since you can virtually guarantee that you’ll have one of the top offenses by loading up on hitters with your early picks. 3. Do not become attached to marginally valuable playersRather than keeping your 20th round draft pick on the team for the entire year, you’re almost always going to be better off if you’re willing to drop him at the appropriate time. You’ll compile much better statistics by rotating whichever undrafted or dropped players have favorable match-ups that day. For example, a hitter who will be at home in a hitters' park against a bad pitcher. Even if the hitter wouldn’t normally be roster-worthy, he may be equal to far better players for that one day. By being willing to drop marginal players, you’ll also ensure that you have bench space to put your starting pitchers… allowing you to move middle relievers into your active roster for the day. You should also be willing to drop marginal starting pitchers when you’re not using them. Like hitters, you’ll do better by rotating slightly inferior pitchers with good match-ups into your rotation on a daily basis. 4. Pay careful attention to daily match-upsI’ve mentioned this a few times already, but it’s worth emphasizing. Daily match-ups matter. Parks have a huge impact on statistics. Playing at home is a substantial advantage. Favorable lefty/righty match-ups are important (not to mention often affecting whether a hitter may sit that day or not). For pitchers, the opposing team’s offense is important. And nothing makes more of a difference for hitters than the opposing team’s starting pitcher. Ideally, you should be calculating the impact of each of these factors (and more) to determine which players on your team or available free agents should be played that day. Even if you don’t actually do any calculations, you need to consider the impact of as many of the key situational factors as possible. 5. Do not save your waiver pick for the futureIf you happen to be in a league with other good players, some of them will be combing the free agent pool for players with favorable match-ups, too. This is particularly true of starting pitchers. So you may need to pick up players a day or two early in some cases. Some of the time, that may require you to put in a waiver claim if you want to get a player. If you’re holding onto your No. 1 waiver priority in hopes of landing a star later, you’re going to be passing up lots of small opportunities to accumulate better statistics. Most of the time, that won’t be a worthwhile tradeoff for you to make. 6. Use your late-round picks on players with high fantasy upsideSince you’re probably going to be dropping most of your late-round picks at some point anyway, there’s no sense using those picks on marginal players. Take someone who has a shot at being really valuable, even if he has a high risk of ending up worthless. Instead of a player who’s going to take up bench space on your roster, take someone who has an outside shot of becoming a closer by the start of the season, or a top prospect who has a slight chance of making the major leagues out of spring training. Obviously, the earlier your draft takes place, the more chance there is that these speculative picks will be successful. 7. Do not use a strategy that will require you to complete tradesThese leagues are notoriously unpredictable when it comes to trade activity. Some of them are filled with active traders, while others have owners who never trade or become completely inactive early in the season. With all the other strategy options available in daily transactions leagues, there’s simply no reason to go into the season with a strategy that can only work if you’re able to complete trades. Posted by Alex Zelvin at 1:02am (14) Comments Monday, March 09, 2009Team Carty’s LABR NL rosterSorry guys; no full article from me today. I spent the weekend in Phoenix drafting my team for the League of Alternate Baseball Reality (LABR) National League. If you're not familiar with LABR, it is considered to be one of the 'big two' of fantasy baseball expert competitions along with Tout Wars. USA Today will be publishing the full results of the auction later in the month, but I thought you guys would appreciate a sneak preview of my roster right now. Team Carty — LABR NL+-----+------------------+-------+ | POS | PLAYER | PRICE | +-----+------------------+-------+ | C | Ramon Hernandez | $15 | | C | Carlos Ruiz | $ 2 | | 1B | James Loney | $25 | | 2B | Kelly Johnson | $23 | | 3B | Dallas McPherson | $ 3 | | SS | Jimmy Rollins | $40 | | CI | David Freese | $ 1 | | MI | Clint Barmes | $ 6 | | OF | Raul Ibanez | $23 | | OF | Cody Ross | $13 | | OF | Aaron Rowand | $ 9 | | OF | Kosuke Fukudome | $ 6 | | OF | Nyjer Morgan | $ 5 | | UT | Brandon Moss | $ 5 | +-----+------------------+-------+ | P | Javier Vazquez | $25 | | P | Rich Harden | $19 | | P | Kenshin Kawakami | $ 7 | | P | Ben Sheets | $ 1 | | P | Mike Gonzalez | $11 | | P | Huston Street | $ 9 | | P | Manny Corpas | $ 7 | | P | Mike Adams | $ 2 | | P | Jeremy Affeldt | $ 2 | | P | Joe Thatcher | $ 1 | +-----+------------------+-------+ | BN | Jorge de la Rosa | RSV-1 | | BN | Ross Ohlendorf | RSV-2 | | BN | Brian Moehler | RSV-3 | | BN | Jeff Suppan | RSV-4 | | BN | Zach Duke | RSV-5 | | BN | Jason Marquis | RSV-6 | +-----+------------------+-------+ To preemptively answer a question I'm sure to get, yes, I'm aware that Freese has been since been demoted to the minors. But I had him as a $9 value if he got 350 at-bats, so he was plenty worth the risk as a $1 pick, even if a demotion was somewhat likely. Plus, I suspected the next guy on the list would go undrafted, and he did, so no worries. Also, please keep in mind that I was using a unique strategy that makes the pitching look a little light upon first look. Given neutral luck, I estimate I could pull down nearly 55 pitching points, though. I'll let you know more about the strategy later, if you don't figure it out yourselves. For now, it's about time I get some much needed rest. Finally, thanks to Steve Gardner of USA Today for the invite and to all the other guys who made this such a great draft and who I'm sure will make this a great season. Posted by Derek Carty at 2:30am (9) Comments Tuesday, March 10, 2009Player profile: Carl Crawford
Had I written for The Hardball Times a year ago, Carl Crawford would have been an excellent candidate to be hooked up to "The Meter;" his past four seasons would have looked like this: +------+-----+------------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | BA | HR | RBI | R | SB | +------+-----+------------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+ | 2004 | 22 | Devil Rays | 626 | 0.296 | 11 | 55 | 104 | 59 | | 2005 | 23 | Devil Rays | 644 | 0.301 | 15 | 81 | 101 | 46 | | 2006 | 24 | Devil Rays | 600 | 0.305 | 18 | 77 | 89 | 58 | | 2007 | 25 | Devil Rays | 584 | 0.315 | 11 | 80 | 93 | 50 | +------+-----+------------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+ But then last year, as most of you know, Crawford was a major fantasy disappointment, posting the depressed line below: +------+-----+------------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+ | 2008 | 26 | Rays | 443 | 0.273 | 8 | 57 | 69 | 25 | +------+-----+------------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+ It was Crawford's worst full season of his career, the result of injuries and some bad luck, which we will talk about in more detail later. Much debate always seems to swirl around Crawford concerning his value based on where he is selected, but for now let's put that issue aside and see what we can expect of him in 2009. PowerCrawford's power potential is legendary. Once expected to be realized by many, only the stubborn seem to believe he still possesses the potential to hit 20 home runs in a season. Although Crawford has already played in seven MLB seasons, during the 2009 season he will only be 27 years old, an age when most hitters start to hit their peak power years. With that in mind, let's see what True Home Runs think of Crawford's power potential. If you're new to THT Fantasy Focus and are unfamiliar with True Home Runs (tHR) or any of the other stats I'm using, check out our quick reference guide. These stats provide a much clearer picture of a player's talent, so it's well worth taking a couple of minutes to learn them. +------+-----+------------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+--------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | HR | tHR | HR/FB | tHR/FB | nHR/FB | OF FB% | +------+-----+------------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+--------+ | 2006 | 24 | Devil Rays | 600 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 27 | | 2007 | 25 | Devil Rays | 584 | 11 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 31 | | 2008 | 26 | Rays | 443 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 28 | +------+-----+------------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+--------+ It appears that Crawford was the victim of some bad luck the past two years with his home run totals. Simply looking at his home run totals and home run per fly ball percentage (HR/FB), one would think that Crawford has been losing power ability the past few seasons. Interestingly enough, tHR's contradicts that claim and says Crawford should have actually been hitting home runs at a higher rate in the past two seasons. I see no reason for Crawford's HR/FB percentage continuing to stay in the single-digits, and given his age and hopefully improved health a HR/FB percentage in the 12 to 15 range seems likely. Hitting 30 percent fly balls with 12 percent going for home runs over a full season's worth of at bats results in a projected 17 home runs. Believe it or not, that is the low-end projection. If he increases his home run rate to 15 percent of his fly balls, then the projected total rises to 22 home runs. Twenty home runs from Crawford would surprise most people, but Crawford certainly has the ability to hit that many and I think he has a good chance of reaching that mark. Contact+------+-----+------------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | BA | tBA | CT% | BABIP | xBABIP | LD% | BIP/HR | BIP/tHR | +------+-----+------------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ | 2006 | 24 | Devil Rays | 600 | 0.305 | 0.300 | 86 | 0.332 | 0.334 | 18 | 29 | 37 | | 2007 | 25 | Devil Rays | 584 | 0.315 | 0.308 | 81 | 0.375 | 0.355 | 20 | 43 | 29 | | 2008 | 26 | Rays | 443 | 0.273 | 0.325 | 86 | 0.301 | 0.344 | 21 | 48 | 26 | +------+-----+------------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ Crawford had never struggled to post a .300 average before 2008, and it is pretty apparent that his anomalous .273 average was the result of some poor BABIP luck. Assuming a return to his previous BABIP level of about .330, Crawford's batting average would shoot up to .307. Also affecting his average would be the increase in HR/FB percentage projected before. Adding in the home run rate tHR predicts raises his expected batting average to .327, right about what his True Batting Average (tBA) suggests. +------+-----+------------+-----+-----+------------+------+-------------+----------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | CT% | JUDGMENT X | A/P | BAT CONTROL | BAD BALL | +------+-----+------------+-----+-----+------------+------+-------------+----------+ | 2006 | 24 | Devil Rays | 600 | 86 | 103 | 0.43 | 91 | 65 | | 2007 | 25 | Devil Rays | 584 | 81 | 108 | 0.61 | 85 | 59 | | 2008 | 26 | Rays | 443 | 86 | 106 | 0.48 | 88 | 67 | +------+-----+------------+-----+-----+------------+------+-------------+----------+ Taking a look at his plate discipline stats, we see Crawford has above average judgment and is pretty much average everywhere else. His plus batting average is more the result of his high BABIP than great plate discipline and since these stats should remain relatively stable in 2009, they should not affect his average too much from his tBA. Even though it would be a career high, expect Crawford to hit for an average in the mid to low .320s. SpeedSteals are Crawford's most dominant category, as he swiped at least 50 bags four of the five seasons prior to 2008. Last season, though, Crawford stole a measly 25 bases. As I briefly mentioned in the beginning of the article, injuries had something to do with it. Much of his August and September were lost to a finger injury, and if we extrapolate his totals to make up for the lost playing time, he now steals 10 more bases, bringing his total to 35. It should also be noted that throughout much of July, he was hampered by a nagging hamstring injury. If we take his stolen base rate for April, May, and June—the three months he was not affected by injury—and project that out for the full season, Crawford would have stolen about 40 bases in 2008. On the surface, it seems we should not be too worried about Crawford's speed totals in 2009. +------+-----+------------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+-----+-----------+-------------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | SB | SBA | SBO% | SBA% | SB% | FAN SPEED | FAN BALLOTS | +------+-----+------------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+-----+-----------+-------------+ | 2004 | 22 | Devil Rays | 626 | 59 | 74 | 0.243 | 45 | 80 | 92 | 9 | | 2005 | 23 | Devil Rays | 644 | 46 | 54 | 0.236 | 33 | 85 | 94 | 9 | | 2006 | 24 | Devil Rays | 600 | 58 | 67 | 0.256 | 40 | 87 | 91 | 13 | | 2007 | 25 | Devil Rays | 584 | 50 | 60 | 0.254 | 38 | 83 | 91 | 32 | | 2008 | 26 | Rays | 443 | 25 | 32 | 0.253 | 26 | 78 | 90 | 57 | +------+-----+------------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+-----+-----------+-------------+ His Fan Score agrees that he still possesses great foot speed, and although I have not run any tests to prove a correlation, I would consider it promising that defensive metrics (RZR, OOZ, UZR/150) rated him especially high in 2008, a sign that he will retain his quickness. Looking at the above chart, we see that Crawford attempted to steal at lower percentage than previous years (SBA%) and I would expect that number to bounce back at least partially to its previous level. With the expected increase in BABIP, Crawford should be put into more stealing opportunities (SBO%), leading to more stolen bases. As long as he remains relatively healthy in 2009, Crawford should accumulate at least 40 stolen bases with the potential to reach 50. Final thoughtsNow that we have a pretty good idea of what Crawford will do for owners in 2009, the question remains, is he worth it? Sneaking a peek over at Mock Draft Central, we see his current ADP is 29, down from 15 a year ago. Clearly people have a lack of confidence in Crawford as he has dropped from the top tier of outfielders into the second one. Ichiro Suzuki, Nick Markakis, Carlos Lee, and Alfonso Soriano are some of the outfielders in that second tier along with Crawford and looking comparatively at the stats some of the others project, Crawford emerges as the best value of the pack. If I am going to take an outfielder in the third round, Carl Crawford is going to be the guy I select. | ||||||
