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 Tuesday, March 10, 2009Fantasy Baseball Roundtable: Player evaluation or strategy?This week, it's The Hardball Times Fantasy's turn to host the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable. My question to the participants: What do you think has a greater impact on one's ability to win a fantasy baseball league: player evaluation or strategy? Tim Dierkes — RotoAuthorityPlayer evaluation. If you are adept at picking players, it will easily cover up most strategy errors. You can't win with bad players but can win with questionable strategy (like drafting a bunch of pitchers early or ignoring position scarcity). If you have the right players, the only real strategy is who to start on a given day. Usually you can look at the rosters of each team at season's end and just by eyeballing tell who won the league. It's easy for a radical strategy to backfire and ruin your season. The simplest strategy, creating a balanced team, will usually be fine. Commish — Fantasy Baseball GeeksYou can make a case for both and my response will touch on each, but for the purpose of this question I will say strategy is most important. My goal entering all drafts is to load up on hitting early (or using a lot of my budget in auction) with a major focus on players that contribute to all 5 categories and do not hurt you in others. There is a 100% chance that I would pay more for Carlos Beltran than Ryan Howard as a current example. There are usually a group of arms that I target for "my ace" that will be on the board much later, but have the talent to rise into the elite. King Felix, Matt Cain, or Verlander would be an example of that for this year. I usually draft a bunch of these players and hope that collectively they can match up with someone that paid for Lincecum in the second round. Names like Yo Gallardo, Kershaw, Garza, Myers, Scherzer, and even Smoltz. Last, but not least I do not pay for saves. The 9th inning duties are the most volatile and spending early on them is a recipe for disaster. This is my personal strategy, but in the end it does come down to talent evaluation that makes it possible. I feel that I can find value in pitchers later (talent ready to rise) that allows my strategy to work. Hitters are more predicable and less injury prone, so for me it has been very successful over the years. Patrick Cain — timesunion.com Fantasy Baseball blogStrategy is more important. And with that I a mean, the ability to think on your feet, be flexible and take advantages as they come your way. Player evaluation was probably a lot more important a number of years ago, but now there are readily available, free forecasts that are really good. That basically puts everyone on the same level for predicting stats. There are also are great sites, like those hosted by many members of this league, that will help you fill in the gaps where that formulas may go astray. Brett Greenfield — Fantasy PhenomsI think player evaluation has the biggest impact when it comes to winning your league. Knowing who to target and who not to are the most important factors. I may have a certain strategy such as not drafting a catcher early, but knowing who Chris Ianetta is and when to draft him is more important. If research is done and analysis is compiled, you are able to build your team from the bottom up. Examples of players from last year that could have been drafted in rounds 20 or later include Nate McLouth, Zack Greinke, Jair Jurrjens and Edinson Volquez. No strategy can find those kinds of players, but extensive player evaluation can. Know each team's starting lineup, rotation and closing situation. Lastly, evaluate each team's "sixth man," such as an Emilio Bonifacio. Being aware of a team's depth chart can pay dividends in the longrun if an injury or poor play became a factor for a starter. Jon Williams — RotoExpertsBoth proper player evaluation and good strategy are important to long-term success in fantasy baseball. However, a good strategy usually trumps player evaluation. This is because a good strategy will shrink the player pool. This is what successful strategies such as Ron Shandler’s L.I.M.A. and Portfolio 3 plans attempt to do. After the auction, player evaluation increases in importance but the player pool continues to be smaller if the strategy is preserved. Rudy Gamble — RazzballI think for 10 and 12 team mixed leagues that player evaluation and roster management trump strategy. It pains me to say it since I love draft strategy but there are too many free agents out there. In an NL-only or AL-only league, I think draft strategy plays a bigger role but, even then, I can't say it trumps player evaluation. I'd say they feed off one another since you need player evaluation to identify the draft bargains that make a strategy successful. Perhaps the only format where strategy may trump player valuation is a head-to-head league where you can use strategy to outmaneuver your competitors. Mike Podhorzer — FantasyPros911I feel quite strongly that player evaluation is more important than strategy for winning a fantasy league. At the end of the day, winning a fantasy league boils down to accumulating the most value on your team for the entirety of the season (for the most part, total team value has a high correlation to the standings, but it's not perfect). If you had completely perfect projections, I think that it would be nearly impossible to not win your league, and certainly you'd be guaranteed to finish in the money at worst. However, there is only so far a solid strategy could take you. You still need to have as accurate projections as possible and know how to properly value them. Simply put, I see strong player evaluation skills as vital to a winning fantasy player, whereas a good strategy might be nice to have and provide some benefit, but is not truly necessary. In fact, I typically play my leagues pretty much straight up. I can't even really describe any strategy I've used because all I do is try to leave the draft with the most value on my team by never targeting anyone and acquiring as many players at as large a discount to my value as possible, while hopefully spending my entire budget. I'm not sure that should even be considered a strategy, so a successful player could go "strategyless" and still perform well. I don't think you could say the same for a fantasy player lacking player evaluation skills. Derek Carty — The Hardball TimesWell, since the majority of the guys answered "player evaluation," I'll lean the other way and say "strategy". Years ago, player evaluation was undoubtedly more important than it is today. Nowadays, everyone has access to a number of free projection systems, all of which have roughly the same level of predictive accuracy. Because of this, the marginal gains in player evaluation can be very slim in a competitive league (take note that in a weaker league, player evaluation likely trumps strategy). Therefore, the marginal gains for a superior strategist can supersede these player evaluation gains. I do think there is an exception to this, however. While projection systems have an inherent ceiling, a barrier that can never be surpassed, it is still possible to gain a competitive advantage on your opponents in the area of player evaluation. While there is no marginal value in being the same as everyone else, there is a great deal of value in being different than everyone else, even if the cumulative projective accuracy of your methods are equivalent. As an example (which is a strictly hypothetical one), if everyone thinks that Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols, and David Wright are the top four players to be drafted and you think that Stephen Drew belongs in that group, that is enormously valuable information (assuming that your system for determining this has the same level of accuracy as your opponents'). While everyone will be breaking even by taking Hanley and crew, you'll be taking an equivalent player rounds later. I'm not suggesting that Drew is actually a top four pick by any means, but if you have a system that says he is, and on the whole that system is just as accurate as the more traditional ones, you will be at a huge advantage. You will be able to derive greater fantasy value from that system since there will be a greater discrepancy between your values and market values. As regular readers know, being equally or more accurate while also being different is something I actively try to do here at THT Fantasy with things like CAPS (Context Neutral Pitching Statistics) and True Home Runs. Concluding thoughtsThat wraps up this week's roundtable. If you guys have any thoughts on this issue, please feel free to use the comment section to make them known. Unrelated note: Mock Draft Central expert mock draftAs an aside, I'll be participating in another Mock Draft Central expert mock draft tomorrow night at 8 PM EST. I didn't want to use a whole post just to announce this, but to those of you who are interested, please feel free to stop by tomorrow and watch the draft unfold, ask questions, etc. Posted by Derek Carty at 11:16am (9) Comments Wednesday, March 11, 2009Fantasy Quandary: The Alex Rodriguez Hip SurgeryWe have all heard by now that fantasy baseball’s best (or second-best, depending who you ask) third baseman—and first round lock—is going to miss somewhere between the next six to nine weeks following arthroscopic right hip surgery to repair a tear in the Acetabular Labrum and to correct impingement-causing bone changes. While a great number of authors on various sites have pretty much declared Alex Rodriguez to be undraftable (I called him a “major risk”), there are likely just as many managers out there who are strongly considering him for an early or mid-round selection (especially in head-to-head leagues with DL spots). The aim of this article is to describe the anatomy, the surgical procedure, implications for the baseball athlete, and the resulting fantasy scenarios that have arisen from the situation. The History In a physical examination during spring training, Yankees team physician Chris Ahmad advised Rodriguez to seek consultation with renowned hip specialist Dr. Marc Phillippon. As a result, it was found that he had a tear in his labrum, as well as a cyst on the labrum that needed to be drained. The cyst was the minor aspect of his condition, and was a secondary result—not the cause—of the labrum tear. Initially, the Yankees reported that Rodriguez would opt to play out the season with the stiffness in his right hip, choosing conservative rehabilitative efforts and anti-inflammatory medication over invasive surgery that could have potentially sidelined him for upwards of four months. The decision to go the conservative route did not last long, however, as it was reported shortly after he had the cyst drained that he would undergo arthroscopic surgery that would allow him to return during the season, and would, in essence, partially correct his hip problems. The Anatomy Here is a fantastic illustration of the Acetabulum and the Labrum (from the Journal of the American Physical Therapy Association Website). The labrum is a rim of fibrocartilage that lines the rim of the hip socket that reduces contact stress and provides stability (1) to an already deep and stable hip joint by increasing it’s depth by 21 percent. It is wide and thin in the front, and thick in the posterior aspect. Due to poor blood supply, the labrum often requires surgical repair to approximate the torn edges. The outer one-third of the labrum has limited blood supply, so small, focal tears to these regions may heal over time with rest (not typical). If left untreated, the rate of degeneration of the hip may increase, likely leading to the early need of hip replacement or resurfacing procedures. The labrum is usually torn with sports and activities that require repetitive twisting and rotation with the hip—especially when combined with axial loading (weight bearing) and rapid hip flexion and extension. The Effects on Rodriguez’s Game A-Rod’s tear is in the posterior labrum, which is often torn with repetitive hip extension combined with abduction and external rotation—much like when a third baseman/shortstop must push off forcefully to get to a hard hit for a backhand attempt. It may also be torn by axial loading combined with forceful rotation; such is the case with the act of swinging the bat. We may see hesitance at the plate when he returns, so you can probably expect a decline in his power numbers this season once he returns. He may also struggle to hit pitches on the inner half of the plate, which requires greater pelvic rotation (and hence, hip rotation) to get the bat through the zone. In addition, the Yankees will likely decide to run Rodriguez less frequently as well, leading to much lower stolen base numbers. Here is a nice illustration (from the New York Times) that describes the hip labrum and shows how the labrum is affected by baseball activities. The Surgery Dr. Marc Phillippon performed surgery on Rodriguez on Monday morning in Vail, Colo. The procedure was a "hybrid" surgery that would allow for him to return to the field sooner than later. Phillippon expects him to be out for six to nine weeks. Brian Cashman reported today that he expects Rodriguez to return to game action “sometime in May.” Monday’s surgery—the first in a series of two—included a labral repair (sutures are used to repair the tear), debridement (as is standard in arthroscopy), and a small "Pincer" impingement trimming. This is where there is osseous (bone) malformation on the rim of the socket that needs to be smoothed down to prevent pinching and discomfort in the hip. It also allows for the hip to extend (in this case because it was in the posterior aspect of the joint) more smoothly and without painful interruption. A-Rod will still need to have an additional surgery in the offseason to address the "Cam" impingement (Femoral head against the socket). Sometimes in a hip arthroscopy, the surgeon will find bone spurs that grow along the rim of the Acetabulum (hip socket) that create Femoroacetabular impingement, and can also lead to further labral tearing, cartilage degeneration, cyst formation, and pain. Dr. Phillippon said that Rodriguez would “absolutely” be ready for the start of spring training in 2010. The offseason surgery will be reserved for any additional repair of the labrum (if needed), and to address the "Cam” portion of the impingement, which is located on the Femoral head. Sometimes, this includes chondroplasty or microfracture procedures, depending on the extent of damage. Fantasy Implications Previously, I had written that I would not be taking A-Rod early in fantasy drafts even if he did not opt for surgery: "For what it is worth, I am not going to be drafting A-Rod in the first round. Given this news, I probably would not draft him unless he drops to the third round or later (which probably won't happen), so it looks like I will not have A-Rod on any of my teams in 2009." Well, now I won't be taking A-Rod before round five. If he fell to round six or seven, I would snag him and hope for the best, but I won't be gambling on my core of players from the first five rounds. The decision to draft A-Rod also largely depends on the format of your league (H2H vs. Roto), roster size, and DL spots. In H2H leagues with ample DL spots, you could try to wait and draft A-Rod in the third, fourth, or even fifth rounds, and stash him on your DL until he returns. In roto leagues, where cumulative stats are the name of the game, you probably would be best served to wait a couple of rounds later if you decided to draft A-Rod at all. The best-case scenario has A-Rod returning in late April or early/mid May. Even then, there is no guarantee that he will be completely pain-free, though he should be more comfortable. Remember, he will still have some structural restriction remaining from the "Cam" impingement that is to be addressed in the offseason. The fantasy impact also extends to the rest of the Yankees lineup, particularly to new addition Mark Teixeira. Tex will no longer have A-Rod’s bat in the lineup, which will take away some favorable pitches, but he is certainly no slouch at the plate either. While his RBI totals will rise over the first month-plus, it is uncertain how the lineup will play out once A-Rod returns. It is probably 50-50 as to whether Teixeira hits in front of or behind Rodriguez. In the meantime, Yankees fans will have to get used to seeing Cody Ransom over at the hot corner, unless they go out and acquire a more proven veteran. Projections for Alex Rodriguez in 2009 He will likely miss all of April and part of early May. Even when he returns, he will likely exhibit a decrease in power, batting average, and stolen bases. It is also not out of the realm of possibility that his hip acts up and sends him to the DL at some point when he returns. These hip procedures tend to be finicky at times, especially when work is done to the bone. Also, remember that he still has some areas of deficiency in the hip that will need to be addressed in the offseason. If the Yankees fall out of contention somehow, A-Rod may be shut down early so that he is more likely to be ready for spring training in 2010. My preliminary forecast for the balance of the season is .282/.378/.505, 21 HR, 70 RBI, and 5 SB. References (1) Tan V, Seldes RM, Katz MA, et al. Contribution of acetabular labrum to articulating surface area and femoral head coverage in adult hip joints: an anatomic study in cadavera. Am J Orthop 2001;30 :809 –812. Posted by Chris Neault at 12:28am (7) Comments Strategies To Handle The A-Rod InjuryThe unexpected news that Alex Rodriguez will miss April, and potentially more time this season, after undergoing arthroscopic surgery to repair a labral tear on his right hip, has thrown a proverbial monkey wrench into fantasy baseball leagues across this nation. It's not every year that those who play fantasy baseball must figure out how to evaluate, draft, and manage a player of A-Rod's caliber and injury status. In real life, the New York Yankees have already committed themselves to paying A-Rod’s salary for this season and beyond. The club’s management has seen his MRI results, undoubtedly consulted with a phalanx of doctors, and will make ongoing decisions on A-Rod’s treatment, care, and eventual return to the baseball diamond as circumstances see fit. In fantasy leagues, fate is beyond anybody’s command. Surely, many will roll the dice on A-Rod for 2009, hoping the star player lives up to the odds in Dr. Marc Philippon’s hopefully sincere proclamation that his patient has an "85 to 90 percent chance'' of playing the rest of the season after his return. The money that Alex Rodriguez commands in fantasy baseball auctions and his post-injury draft position will be determined largely by the optimists of this world, the glass-is-half-full members of leagues currently in draft mode. A couple weeks from now, A-Rod’s stock will be largely conventional wisdom as people in fantasy baseball leagues defer decision-making to draft averages, pre-set rankings, and anything they can use as a guide towards evaluating the huge X-factor known as Alex Rodriguez. But even beyond a draft or auction, A-Rod’s true value will continue to be fluid. As the superstar’s return date draws more and more near, many may see him as a target in trades, perhaps the salvation to a stumbling start out of the fantasy season’s gates. With all that in mind, and a nod to the fact that seasons may be won or lost on this dice roll, we present some strategies to handle the A-Rod situation: If you have already drafted Alex Rodriguez … Trading him at this moment doesn’t make much sense. For the past week, everyone has been inundated with bad news concerning the guy. Trade negotiations work best with the winds of leverage at one’s back. Instead, even if you’re a pessimist who recoils at Dr. Philippon’s set odds, hold steady. Realize that much of March and April will be occupied by little substantial news on the A-Rod front. Instead, expect to see press releases like “A-Rod’s Surgery A Success, Team Says.” Sure, you can trade A-Rod now. But those who wait will likely have a much better trade window to get value from A-Rod. Plus, you might just luck into an up-and-coming third baseman who breaks out in 2009. April showers make May flowers. If you are within a week or two of your draft … We’re at the high point of volatility concerning A-Rod in drafts. By our estimation, he’s so far slipped on average to a late third/early fourth round pick, but variability from draft to draft is quite high. If A-Rod plays 75-80% of the season at his previous elite level, he can certainly be worth a third-round pick, especially when factoring in some at-bats from a replacement. However, that’s a big “if”—a gamble whose upside may not outweigh the risk involved. If you’re a risk-taker and wish to bet on A-Rod, you may be wise to draft him as a utility guy. From David Wright to Adrian Beltre, third base is a position that is expected to have some pretty good producers in 2009. Drafting a second third baseman high and marking A-Rod as the utility guy will allow you to have the waiver wire at your disposal. You'll at least then have the widest possible pool of players to make up A-Rod’s missed at bats. Another tip: Pay extra attention to position scarcity by doing things like forgoing an elite closer. If you decide to draft A-Rod, you’ll be sending him to the DL and opening up a temporary roster spot. Use the extra position to test out some players at any deep position like relief pitching. If your draft is more than two weeks away … This will give you a much better idea about the consensus view on A-Rod’s fantasy value in 2009. You’ll be able to consult Average Draft Position (ADP) guides, offered by most of the major fantasy league providers, to see the wisdom of crowds concerning A-Rod. It won’t make much sense to “reach” on A-Rod considering the big risks involved. But those in fantasy baseball leagues might take a chance on A-Rod if given the opportunity to draft him at any discount below his ADP. As stated above, A-Rod’s perceived value will likely go up as his return draws more and more near, and newspapers print insubstantial, but positive, updates on A-Rod. If you manage to draft him below the March valuation of A-Rod, you may be able to flip him at the April valuation. “Buy low, sell high” is the standard motto for anybody in financial markets and real estate. If your auction is approaching … Alex Rodriguez makes the perfect player to nominate at the very start of an auction. Out of the gates, everyone’s impulse is to bid and spend at auction. One thought above all others holds the wallet in check: Hold on, maybe there’s someone better out there more worthy my bidding. Nominating an injured guy may freeze the auction room as few will wish to spend big money on a guy they can’t count upon. Doing so may open up a bargain. How can you tell if you are getting one? I recently posted a comparison between average draft position and average auction value. Use that as a guide to help determine whether A-Rod is slipping below his ADP. Lastly, If you're in an auction keeper league … remember that a cheap Alex Rodriguez will make a stellar keeper heading into 2010. In summary, Alex Rodriguez is a huge unknown this season. Dealing with intangible variables like volatile playing time presents both challenges and opportunities to smart fantasy baseball managers. Many may wish to avoid the headache altogether—certainly not an unreasonable thought—but there's also profit in having a risk threshold on your team. Just make sure you exploit it wisely. Posted by Eriq Gardner at 12:25am (2) Comments Thursday, March 12, 2009Tiering upA hot piece of advice these days is to focus on ranking and drafting players using a tiering system. The reasoning behind the system is that the best talent (in the tail of the distribution) is thinly distributed—the difference in expected value between the top two players is usually larger than the difference between the 99th and 100th players. Moreover, it is sometimes possible to see a noticeable step down in value between two consecutively ranked players; for example, there could be a larger than normal gap in value between the third and fourth ranked players at a position. The most cited example of this is at shortstop, with Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins significantly better than Alexei Ramirez, Stephen Drew and Troy Tulowitzki. A tiering system has two aspects: a ranking/forecasting part and a drafting strategy. The ranking part of the tier system recommends paying more time and attention to slotting players into tiers, both overall and by position, rather than worrying too much about rankings within tiers (i.e. getting more exact dollar values or rankings). In general, I think this is useful. I would rather have system that put all of the players into their actual, true tiers but then got the ordering within the tiers somewhat wrong, than a system that got many of the exact rankings rights but messed up on some players' tiering. In other words, many small mistakes are usually better than several big ones. This comes with an important caveat though: the exact location of tiers gets harder to find the further down you go. The deeper the position, the easier it will be to find a third and perhaps fourth tiers (like at starting pitcher or outfielder). Still, meaningful differences between merely tiering and exact slotting get harder to notice as you go deeper into the ranks. It is pretty easy to get tied up in logical knots. I fooled around with tiering the outfielders and I quickly ended up with a quandary: I don't think Nick Markakis is equal to Manny Ramirez, but it is equally hard to find a way to divide the outfielders ranked between them into two distinct tiers. The drafting in tiers strategy basically boils down to the following type of advice: it is your turn in a draft and you're trying to choose between Rollins and Chase Utley. Hanley and Reyes have already been drafted, so Rollins is the last of his tier left while Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Brandon Phillips are all still on the board, but you have Utley ranked higher than Rollins. Whom should you draft? The tiering strategy, if you're a purist, says that you should draft from the bottom of the tiers whenever possible. In this case, that would be Rollins over Utley. Of course, it is rarely this easy. A much better tiering strategy should also take other things into account. For instance, is someone from the alternate tier (like Phillips) likely going to be still available when you next draft? How much worse is the difference between Rollins and Alexei Ramirez than the difference between Utley and Phillips and between Utley and Brian Roberts (assuming he's the best of the next tier)? How far is drop to the next respective tiers? If you're drafting at the tail ends (picks one and 12 in a 12-team league) the tiers have to have rather more players in them for tiering to be useful. If you're not going to pick again for 22 picks, what's the likelihood that any players in a three-player tier are left? And if you have to start worrying about the relative differences between players, then you're going to need a ranking system that makes finer distinctions between players than mere tiering would do, which kind of obviates the whole point of tiering in the first place. Posted by Jonathan Halket at 1:28am (15) Comments Friday, March 13, 2009Using middle relievers in Yahoo fantasy baseball leaguesLast week I wrote about some of the strategies you can use to help you win standard Yahoo public leagues, and other similar daily transactions formats. The part of the article that generated the most interest was my use of middle relievers, so I thought I’d answer some of the questions that were raised and discuss how to use middle relievers in a little more detail. By not drafting starting pitchers early, I can use my picks to ensure that I’ll be among the top teams in all offensive categories. In addition, I’ll be near the top in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. I can probably hold my own in saves. So the only category where I’ll tend to be really weak is wins. Note that I’m not advocating dumping wins. Unless you’re in a particularly strong league, I think you should still be able to pick up a few points for wins with this strategy. I’ve yet to see a league (including experts' leagues) where everybody was a good judge of pitching talent. Everybody “knows about DIPS,” but there are an awful lot of people out there who don’t really BELIEVE in it. One reader commented on the fact that by allocating some of my 1250 innings to middle relievers rather than starting pitchers I’m going to limit how many wins and strikeouts I can accumulate. That’s not completely accurate though. While it will limit my wins, the top middle relievers are going to have similar strikeout rates to the top starting pitchers, and since I’ll only be using middle relievers with favorable matchups, I’m actually going to increase the number of strikeouts I can squeeze out of my 1250 innings. Several people commented on the similarity of my approach to Ron Shandler’s widely know "LIMA Plan." While that’s true, my strategy is tailored pretty specifically to daily transactions leagues with characteristics similar to Yahoo default leagues. You’re not going to do too well using 2 or more middle relievers at a time in most weekly transaction formats. And you’re also not going to have much chance against me using a straight LIMA Plan approach without rotating players on and off of your roster based on daily matchups. The last criticism was that this strategy is going to work best in leagues "full of novices." I think that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but its true that if two or three other people are employing similar strategies, it's going to be a lot tougher to pick up the middle relievers (and starters) with favorable match-ups, and you’ll be forced to lock up roster spots a number of days in advance to keep others from getting to the players you want before you do. As with any strategy, you need to be ready to adjust. If you find that too many people are doing the same thing, you’ll need to figure out how to take advantage of that. If everyone is rotating pitchers with good match-ups, then they’re going to be forced to drop some pretty decent players. That may be the time for you to go with a more stable roster. Some of the most useful players when employing a middle reliever based strategy are relief pitchers with starting pitcher eligibility. One standout who has SP eligibility in Yahoo leagues this year and is likely to pitch in relief is Hong-Chih Kuo. Get him if you can! Others who have SP eligibility but could find their way into the bullpen at some point during the season include Philip Hughes, Clay Buchholz, Carlos Villanueva, and maybe even Joba Chamberlain (although I doubt it). As Spring Training nears its end, other names are likely to emerge to add to this list. Posted by Alex Zelvin at 1:37am (10) Comments Monday, March 16, 2009Player spotlight: Hanley Ramirez
With Alex Rodriguez set to undergo surgery and miss at least a couple of months, Hanley Ramirez has now become the consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy baseball drafts, at least for most people. For me, there is no question who the No. 1 pick is, but it's not Hanley. Sure, he plays shortstop—a position that thins out quickly—and sure, he had an excellent 2008 season... +------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+ | YEAR | AB | BA | HR | RBI | R | SB | +------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+ | 2008 | 589 | 0.301 | 33 | 67 | 125 | 35 | +------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+ ... but that 2008 was inflated by quite a bit of good luck, which we simply can't expect to continue into 2009. Let's take a look at some of the underlying indicators. PowerIf you're new to THT Fantasy Focus and are unfamiliar with True Home Runs (tHR) or any of the other stats I'm using, check out our quick reference guide. These stats provide a much clearer picture of a player's talent, so it's well worth taking a couple of minutes to learn them. +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+--------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | HR | tHR | HR/FB | tHR/FB | nHR/FB | OF FB% | +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+--------+ | 2006 | 22 | Marlins | 633 | 17 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 31 | | 2007 | 23 | Marlins | 639 | 29 | 26 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 37 | | 2008 | 24 | Marlins | 589 | 33 | 21 | 21 | 14 | 13 | 33 | +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+--------+ As you can see, Hanley's home run total didn't change much from 2007 to 2008. On the surface, it's easy for us to say that he was adjusting in his 2006 rookie campaign (and played very well then), then exploded in his sophomore year and continued into his age 25 season in 2008, firmly establishing himself as the premier middle infield power threat. If we look just a bit deeper, however, we see Hanley's 2007 and 2008 power were achieved in different ways. In 2007, he hit a lot of fly balls (37 percent) while keeping a modest HR/FB (14 percent). In 2008, his fly ball rate fell (33 percent) but his HR/FB skyrocketed to 21 percent. If we look even deeper, though, we see that True Home Runs doesn't buy this 2008 power surge. His tHR/FB is on a three-year upswing, but even at 14 percent in 2008, his tHR/FB is much lower than his actual HR/FB. Put all of this together and tHR thinks Hanley should only have hit 21 home runs in 2008. Going forward, marginal gains in tHR/FB should be expected as he ages, but unless he can hit more fly balls, cracking 25 home runs won't be likely. As I believe that your first round pick needs to be consistent, that you need to have a good idea about how they are going to perform, I wouldn't put Hanley down for more than 22 home runs on my cheat sheet. Contact+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | BA | tBA | CT% | BABIP | xBABIP | LD% | BIP/HR | BIP/tHR | +------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ | 2006 | 22 | Marlins | 633 | 0.292 | 0.291 | 80 | 0.344 | 0.339 | 21 | 30 | 27 | | 2007 | 23 | Marlins | 639 | 0.332 | 0.307 | 85 | 0.355 | 0.331 | 18 | 19 | 21 | | 2008 | 24 | Marlins | 589 | 0.301 | 0.282 | 79 | 0.332 | 0.334 | 17 | 14 | 22 | +------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ Hanley has posted batting averages over .300 two years running now, further giving the illusion of dominance, but we see that his True Batting Averages (tBA) have been less than excellent. His .332 average in 2007 was driven by an inflated BABIP (.355 compared to a .331 xBABIP) and an 85 percent contact rate that looks like the outlier in this sample set. Let's look at our plate discipline stats to see the cause of this: +------+-----+---------+-----+-----+------------+------+-------------+----------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | CT% | JUDGMENT X | A/P | BAT CONTROL | BAD BALL | +------+-----+---------+-----+-----+------------+------+-------------+----------+ | 2006 | 22 | Marlins | 633 | 80 | 106 | 0.13 | 89 | 65 | | 2007 | 23 | Marlins | 639 | 85 | 99 | 0.25 | 92 | 62 | | 2008 | 24 | Marlins | 589 | 79 | 105 | 0.19 | 89 | 58 | +------+-----+---------+-----+-----+------------+------+-------------+----------+ As we can see, Hanley's 2007 contact rate was driven by an increase in Bat Control, even while his Judgment fell. Bat Control is normally a very stable stat, but Hanley wasn't able to maintain his gains into 2008. It's possible he'll get back up there, but as Bat Control is so stable, it's not entirely likely. In 2008, Hanley's BABIP regressed as expected, but his batting average was then propped up by all of those extra home runs that we discussed earlier. When they disappear, his True Batting Average falls all the way to .282. Going forward, it's pretty safe to put him down for a BABIP in the .330s—that's where his xBABIP has been his entire career. If we give him an 80 percent contact rate (maybe a little pessimistic, but again, we need to know what our first round pick will do), a .334 BABIP, a 14 percent HR/FB, and a 33 percent fly ball rate, his batting average would be .292—less than what almost every major projection system is predicting. Speed+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+-----+-----------+-------------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | SB | SBA | SBO% | SBA% | SB% | FAN SPEED | FAN BALLOTS | +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+-----+-----------+-------------+ | 2006 | 22 | Marlins | 633 | 51 | 66 | 0.244 | 39 | 77 | 85 | 9 | | 2007 | 23 | Marlins | 639 | 51 | 65 | 0.262 | 35 | 78 | 74 | 10 | | 2008 | 24 | Marlins | 589 | 35 | 47 | 0.284 | 24 | 74 | 84 | 23 | +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+-----+-----------+-------------+ While Hanley stole more than 50 bases in his first two years in the league, this past year his total fell all the way to 35. This was mostly a result of him attempting to steal less frequently (SBA% — a rate that has dropped each year he's been in the majors), despite having the opportunity to steal much more often (thanks to a big spike in his walk rate). He was also successful on his steals less frequently (SB%). His official website posed the question, "Are the days of [Hanley] swiping 50 a year over?". Hanley responded by saying, “It’s getting close to being over. Not completely over, but I won’t have as many.” This absolutely explains at least a portion of the drop in his attempt rate. So what does this portend for 2009? Well, it's entirely possible that Hanley will start stealing more again—he is, after all, just 25 years old and has done it two out of three years—but we must also take not that he'll be moving to the third spot in the batting order and that he's actually said he'll be stealing less. Given these two facts, it's entirely possible—perhaps even likely—that Hanley falls even further in 2009, into the 25 to 30 SB range. All said, Hanley's stolen base situation for 2009 is murky at best—again, something we want to avoid in our first round pick, especially for the guy taken first overall. I'd be comfortable putting him down for 30 or 35 steals on my cheat sheet. Market valueI'm not going to run through the whole exercise here. Almost everyone has Hanley as the No. 1 shortstop and as the No. 1 player overall. Concluding thoughtsAll said, I'd be comfortable expecting this line out of Hanley: 600 AB, .292 BA, 22 HR, 33 SB, 100 RBI, 90 R. While this is certainly a quality fantasy line, I don't believe it even touches what we might expect from Jose Reyes: 650 AB, .300 BA, 15 HR, 55 SB, 65 RBI, 110 R. By my calculations, this would make Reyes worth several dollars more than Ramirez, perhaps as many as $5. Ramirez would probably be my second choice, but I just can't digest these assertions that he is the undisputed No. 1 pick. He is not. Reyes is more consistent and will quite likely post better stats. Posted by Derek Carty at 1:22am (17) Comments Tuesday, March 17, 2009In Praise Of Unsexy BalanceFantasy gamers have a healthy appreciation for eye-popping statistical achievements like 40 HR or 30 SB, tempted by the allure of a batter whose contributions at the plate promise single category nirvana. These statistical achievements, however, come at a cost. A batter like Adam Dunn takes his fantasy team closer to the top of the league's HR pack. A ballplayer like Ichiro Suzuki can use his swift feet to march his fantasy team up the steals race. Both of these players, and many others, have statistical downsides to their accomplishments. With Dunn, it's poor average. Any team that rosters Dunn will need several bonafide average studs to balance his yearly flirtation with the Mendoza Line. As for Ichiro, any team that rosters him will need to have high-powered sluggers to make up for the outfielder's woeful HR and RBI totals. Maybe Dunn and Ichiro are a fantasy baseball love-match made in heaven. That's one way to look at it, and certainly, a great deal of teams this summer will try rostering both as teammates. That strategy opens up some risk, however. A team comprised of single-dimension superstars will face an upward hill toward success should any of his players suffer injury, disappointment, or any other misfortunes. Instead, some may wish to pay more attention to the ramifications of negative value, and strive towards a balanced roster that's a lot less sexy in its embrace of the average. What's average? In a 12-team league, an average player might be expected to produce something along the order of 20 HR, 77 RBI, 81 R, 12 SB, and a .285 AVG. A team comprised of players who each come close to these totals will typically go a long way towards wrapping up a fantasy title, become more resistant to injuries and disappointments, and allow teams to make changes as needed on the fly. Here's our All Star Team of Statistical Balance heading into the 2009 season: C: Russell Martin 1B: Joey Votto 2B: Brandon Phillips SS: Jimmy Rollins 3B: Adrian Beltre OF: Hunter Pence OF: Torii Hunter OF: Jay Bruce Posted by Eriq Gardner at 12:49am (7) Comments Team Singman’s Yahoo F&F League rosterAs some of you may know, I was lucky enough to be invited into Yahoo!'s Family and Friends League, which held its draft last Thursday. The league includes 14 teams, a little over half of which are managed by Yahoo experts and the rest by various other experts like myself. Overall, I am pleased with my team but what matters more is what you think. For the full results of the draft click here, and below is my team reproduced.
+-----+-------------------+-------+ | POS | PLAYER | Round | +-----+-------------------+-------+ | C | Chris Iannetta | 8 | | 1B | James Loney | 10 | | 2B | Dustin Pedroia | 2 | | 3B | Kevin Youkilis | 3 | | SS | Jimmy Rollins | 1 | | CI | Joey Votto | 6 | | MI | JJ Hardy | 5 | | OF | Alex Rios | 4 | | OF | Adam Lind | 14 | | OF | Fred Lewis | 16 | | OF | Denard Span | 17 | | UT | Adam Dunn | 7 | | UT | Skip Schumaker | 23 | +-----+-------------------+-------+ | P | Adam Wainwright | 9 | | P | Matt Garza | 11 | | P | Brandon Morrow | 12 | | P | Jesse Litsch | 19 | | P | Jason Motte | 20 | | P | Frank Francisco | 13 | | P | Chris Perez | 15 | | P | Chris Ray | 21 | | P | Justin Duchscherer| 22 | +-----+-------------------+-------+ | BN | Dallas McPherson | 18 | | BN | Gio Gonzalez | 24 | | BN | Emmanuel Burriss | 25 | +-----+-------------------+-------+ As you can see, I focused on getting hitting early and more specifically filling the scarcer hitting positions. I like the way this strategy worked, as I was still able to fill my outfield and first base positions with solid players in the middle-to-late rounds. It is not that I drafted to trade—meaning I selected a player with the intention of trading him—but I focused on my hitting on purpose because I guarantee more teams are more uncomfortable with their current hitting state than their pitching state. Many teams will be looking to bolster their lineups—especially up the middle—and with Rollins, Hardy, and Pedroia (and Burriss to back them up) I should be able to complete a favorable trade in which I give one of those players and receive pitching help or maybe an outfield upgrade. I have already started discussions with several teams interested in making a similar deal. Another way to put it: The price to acquire pitchers during the draft was higher than what I expect it will cost to trade for a pitcher after the draft. Why, then, would I spend high draft picks on pitchers? You could also look at it the other way; that hitters after the draft will be harder to acquire. As for my rotation, well, I admit it is on the weak side. But as it is, I probably would hold my own in ERA, WHIP, and Saves if I use my starters sparingly, which I can do since there is no minimum innings pitched limit. Even so, there is a good chance I improve my rotation by Opening Day through trades. A few other thoughts from the draft: {exp:list_maker}In one catcher leagues, there is no reason to take a catcher early. I took Chris Iannetta in the eighth round, which is good value based on my projection for him and his usual ADP, but when catchers like Mike Napoli and AJ Pierzynski get taken in the 20th round it becomes worth it to wait. Skip Schumaker, who I selected in the 23rd round, does not have second base eligibility yet, but the Cardinals are trying to convert him into a second baseman. If this experiment is successful, he will be a solid second baseman and therefore is worth a flier in most leagues. A lot of the players on my team are competing in the World Baseball Classic. We will see if any of them get off to unusually cold (or hot) starts and hopefully none of them get hurt between now and the end of the Classic, unlike Matt Lindstrom. {/exp:list_maker} That's it for now. Be sure to check Yahoo in the upcoming days for an article with all of the participants' thoughts on the draft. Posted by Paul Singman at 1:19am (2) Comments THT Fantasy Final Four bracket contestHey guys, While Opening Day is almost here, this time of the year also gets me excited for NCAA March Madness. For those who are interested, I thought it would be fun for some of us THT Fantasy writers to compete in a Final Four Bracket Challenge with some of you readers. No prizes, but I always find these things to be a lot of fun. I believe Yahoo! puts some sort of limit on the number of people who can join a group, so do so quickly to make sure you get in. To join, you can simply click here or if that doesn't work, you can do it the long way by going to the main page for Yahoo!'s contest, click on "Join a Group" and use the ID "162334" and the password "reyes." Good luck, and everyone enjoying the upcoming weekend! Posted by Derek Carty at 3:13pm (1) Comments Wednesday, March 18, 2009New feature: Roster DoctorEarlier this offseason, we introduced the THT Fantasy Mailbag, which has been a big success. Now that leagues have started drafting, today we'd like to introduce our newest regular feature: Roster Doctor. Here's how it works. Simply send us a copy of your fantasy team's roster along with your basic league settings (number of teams, categories used, keeper/non-keeper, and player pool—mixed, AL-only, NL-only) and, if yours is selected, a member of the THT Fantasy team will analyze it for you. To all those whose roster isn't being analyzed, this will still be valuable as it will give you a glimpse into our heads to see how we go about evaluating rosters, how we think about trades, what we think about certain players, how we think certain players stack up again one another, and things like that. We can't cover every single player in-depth throughout the offseason, but this will be a great way to hear our thoughts on some players who may have initially gone overlooked. If you'd like your roster doctored, please send all submissions to this address. To show you how this will work, I'll analyze the first roster today. Player pool: Mixed No. of teams: 12 Categories: Traditional 5x5 Roster: C - Jorge Posada 1B - Casey Kotchman 2B - Chase Utley 3B - Miguel Cabrera SS - Stephen Drew CI - Dallas McPherson MI - Robinson Cano OF - Nick Markakis OF - Alex Rios OF - Shane Victorino OF - Fred Lewis OF - Kendry Morales UTIL - Ryan Sweeney BN - Gaby Sanchez BN - Jed Lowrie SP - Josh Beckett SP - Javier Vazquez SP - Zack Greinke RP - Bobby Jenks RP - Matt Capps RP - Joel Hanrahan P - Ricky Nolasco P - Josh Johnson P - Randy Johnson BN - Jered Weaver BN - Jonathan Sanchez BN - Wandy Rodriguez My first impression is that the pitching is terrific. This is clearly a THT Fantasy kind of pitching staff, led by a couple of my favorites in Beckett and Vazquez. There are actually nine quality starters on this staff, which should allow you to lead most of the pitching categories and give you flexibility to trade later in the year. There is some risk, but it is mitigated to a large extent by the quantity of good pitchers you have. The only change I would make would be to shop Jenks a little. I think there are similarly valued closers like Jose Valverde, Brian Fuentes, and maybe Jonathan Broxton or even Heath Bell who are better choices. The offense isn't as good as the pitching, but it is solid. I like waiting on my catcher in a one-catcher league, and Posada should bounce back if he remains healthy. Twenty home runs isn't out of the question ... plus he's a Yankee. I like Mike Napoli better, and he sometimes gets taken later, so I'd talk with his owner. Having to hold Posada is far from the worst thing in the world, though. Utley and Cabrera are obviously solid, Rios and Markakis make a nice OF tandem, and Cano is another guy I'm high on. Drew could be shopped, though. I prefer Michael Young, who goes a little later, is very consistent, and will probably post better numbers besides. I'd suggest possibly offering Victorino for Nate McLouth or Corey Hart, but you are a little light on steals and might not want to. While not my favorite late-round picks, Lewis and Sweeney are certainly solid and have some upside. I might like Billy Butler a little more, but I often find myself filling my 1B or CI spot with him or Kotchman (or maybe Adam LaRoche) in the late teen rounds. Morales is a nice sleeper pick, seemingly having 1B all to himself. Expecting maybe 20 HRs with a .280 BA with quite a few RBIs hitting fifth or sixth isn't unreasonable. I like the pairing of McPherson and Sanchez. McPherson has monster power and is likely more valuable than Sanchez if starting, but Sanchez might be the frontrunner for a starting spot now. If he does win it, you could consider swapping McPherson with a similar player in Russell Branyan, whose playing time is more secure. With Julio Lugo out for a while, Lowrie should have a chance to secure the starting job for the long haul, although I'm just not sold on him providing good fantasy value. Overall, good team, especially the pitching, and I think there are some opportunities to trade a guy like Drew for Young plus an upgrade elsewhere ... pick up some value in two spots. Definite contender here, especially if you make smart pitching-for-offense trades in-season. | ||||||||
