THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:00am (2) Comments

Waiver Wire

American League by Rob McQuown

Josh Anderson | Detroit | OF
YTD: .341/.386/.463
True Talent: .283/.332/.380
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .288 BA, 1.0 SB
Anderson's True Talent isn't so much different from Jacoby Ellsbury's, and Anderson has a ton of speed. Leyland wants Anderson’s glove in the lineup, so he should keep getting substantial playing time even when Thames returns, which could be two more months. Being unestablished, Anderson could play his way back to the bench, but it seems unlikely. He's no .350 hitter, but he could keep stealing 2 bases per week.

Russ Branyan | Seattle | 1B/3B
YTD: .333/.415/.614
True Talent: .243/.339/.485
Next Week Forecast: 1.0 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, .252 BA, 0.2 SB
Seattle used to have “Big Richie” Sexson, now they have Russell “Paul Bunyan” Branyan. There has never been much difference (other than batting side) between the two. Branyan’s five-hit game against Danks should maintain him in the lineup against LHP, so it's safe to count on more than the projected stats. Just don’t panic when Branyan goes into an 0-for-25-with-12-strikeouts slump. Because he will.

Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland | 2B/SS
YTD: .329/.434/.443
True Talent: .268/.343/.388
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 4 R, 3 RBI, .265 BA, 0.5 SB
A personal fave, Cabrera is no longer a secret, but be careful about assuming that he'll steal bases! Of his 4 SB thus far, one was the back of a double-steal, another was against ailing Mike Redmond, and one was a sneaky steal of third base. Cabrera now has a total of 8 SB in 688 PA. His rate stats should end up somewhat better than his projection, and he has “filler” value as a tolerable middle infielder.

Scott Downs | Toronto | RP
YTD: 11.8 K/9, 14:0 K/BB, 0.84 ERA
True Talent: 8.3 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 3.03 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 1.4 Saves, 3.01 ERA
Since 2007, Scott Downs has been an outstanding reliever, and one of the scarce “2-way lefties” (.243/.321/.364 vs. RHB). His True Talent suggests not only that he can handle the closer job but also that he should be very good. Expect Downs to push Frasor out of the picture if he continues handling the pressure of closing well. And Downs is better than even odds to keep the role after Ryan returns.

Jose Morales | Minnesota | C
YTD: .349/.391/.419
True Talent: .253/.302/.353
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, .252 BA, 0.0 SB
Although he’s worth considering only in AL-only leagues, Morales has hit every year in the minors in which he was healthy, and he batted over .310 the past two years in Triple-A. Between Redmond's shoulder and Mauer's back, expect Morales to keep his spot and keep getting AB. He won't homer or steal, but his very low K rate (5 K in 49 career PA, with a similar rate in the minors) augurs a decent BA.

Scott Richmond | Toronto | SP
YTD: 7.7 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 2.70 ERA
True Talent: 6.7 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 4.56 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 wins, 4 K, 4.51 ERA
Although the Jays seem to have found a Magic Pitching Formula, don't follow the lemmings who are chasing Scott Richmond! Okay, it's not quite that bad. The big Canadian is a great story, escaping the Indy leagues and striking out more than 7 batters per 9 IP. His fly-ball tendencies (39%+) will be okay in some parks, especially with Wells and Rios tracking balls. Unfortunately, the big offenses in the East are going to treat him rudely.

Kurt Suzuki | Oakland | C
YTD: .328/.377/.438
True Talent: .267/.335/.377
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .270 BA, 0.1 SB
Kurt Suzuki is the mad rage in fantasy leagues lately, though it's hard to see why. For AL-only leagues, he is already long gone, and will probably maintain about the same value. The A's offense will heat up some, and he'll add more R/RBI, but his AVG will drop from .328. For mixed leagues, he's just “filler”—nice to have for a weekend in Texas or the like. He does earn props for being durable.

Joel Zumaya | Detroit | RP
YTD: 3.0 K/9, 1:0 K/BB, 0.00 ERA
True Talent: 8.3 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 3.94 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 Saves, 3.91 ERA
When healthy, Zumaya is an exceptional pitcher. He is throwing 100 MPH still (again), and there's no doubt in anyone's mind that he's the best closer candidate on the Tigers. Current closer Fernando Rodney's True Talent (8.6 K/9, 2.0 K/BB) is good, but an ERA over 5.00 may point to a lack of focus. Especially if you own Rodney—but even if not—now is the time to pick up Zumaya.

National League by Michael Street

Joe Beimel | Washington | RP
YTD: 3.7 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 1.23 ERA
True Talent: 5.3 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 3.66 ERA
Next Week Forecast: n/a
When Beimel returns from the DL, he’ll be the Nats’ closer, but the stuff’s just not there. He doesn’t strike out guys (career 5.0 K/9) or display great control (3.8 BB/9), and on top of that, he’s a lefty. In Beimel’s favor, he tends not to give up home runs (career 0.7 HR/9, only 1 HR since 2007), and he’s in a scrambled bullpen situation. For those, he’s worth a gamble, but don’t be surprised if you get burned.

Jesus Flores | Washington | C
YTD: .267/.348/.400
True Talent: .248/.306/.397
Next Week Forecast: 0.7 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, .249 BA, 0.1 SB
The ceiling for Flores is high, but it’s not stratospheric, and for good reason: He has some pop, but he struggles against RHP (.639 OPS) and strikes out a ton (career 4.0 PA/K). Even with a .267 BA, his BABIP is an unsustainable .359. So either sell him high or ride his hot start, but don’t be fooled. Flores will be pretty good someday, but not just yet.

Dexter Fowler | Colorado | OF
YTD: .290/.366/.452
True Talent: .275/.350/.419
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .275 BA, 0.5 SB
Fowler’s numbers look strong, but his OPS away from Coors (.682) is 250 points lower than at home (.936), and he’s splitting time with Ryan Spilborghs. Eventually, Fowler will be the guy to own, but expect streaky part-time performance for now, providing steals, BA, and decent power. A clear must-own in keeper leagues or for those with roster room; everyone else can wait until he’s a full-timer.

Braden Looper | Milwaukee | SP
YTD: 6.5 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 2.45 ERA
True Talent: 4.8 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.32 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.1 IP, 0.4 Wins, 3 K, 4.19 ERA
The Brewers score runs behind Looper—he’s averaging 7 runs of support. But a sharp correction in ERA is in order, particularly with a 4.5 BB/9. Looper has benefited from pitching at the back end of the rotation, but he’ll eventually return to the #3 spot. He would benefit only the back end of a fantasy rotation, too, giving slightly above-average innings with few K and some extra Wins from MIL’s bats.

Joel Piniero | St. Louis | SP
YTD: 2.1 K/9, 1.0 K/BB, 3.76 ERA
True Talent: 4.9 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.78 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 Wins, 3 K, 4.44 ERA
4-0 Piniero demonstrates the arbitrariness of Wins. His expected ERA exceeds his real ERA by almost a full run, and those peripherals are awful. He’s a moderate ground-ball pitcher (1.65 GB/FB in 2008), so he’ll succeed if he keeps the ball down and the Cards play 'D' and hit behind him. Just don’t expect much more than a few extra luck-inspired wins, very few K, and a sub-par ERA.

Edgar Renteria | San Francisco | SS
YTD: .275/.351/.435
True Talent: .277/.335/.395
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, .277 BA, 0.4 SB
With the way Renteria started this year (.138/.194/.172 through his first seven games), he had nowhere to go but up. Since then, he has hit .375/.457/.625. True Talent says the reality is in between. At age 33, Renteria will still show a bit of power, but he’s not going to steal bases, and if he exceeds his True Talent, it won’t be by much. Not a bad SS option, particularly in NL-only leagues, but not a great option, either.

David Ross | Atlanta | C
YTD: .321/.457/.643
True Talent: .240/.334/.427
Next Week Forecast: 1.1 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, .238 BA, 0.1 SB
Brian McCann goes down, and opportunity knocks—will Ross answer? Ross has always flashed power, but he just recently started taking walks (5.7 PA/BB in 2008, vs. 10.9 PA/BB in the prior five years). That trend has continued in the small sample of 2009, making him a decent bet to beat his True Talent. However, when McCann returns from the DL, Ross returns to backup duties, so he's suitable only as a short-term pickup.

Rafael Soriano | Atlanta | RP
YTD: 12.6 K/9, 2.8 K/BB, 0.90 ERA
True Talent: 9.2 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 3.22 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 Saves, 3.37 ERA
Either Soriano or Mike Gonzalez could close for Atlanta, if either could stay healthy and consistent. If both could do it at the same time, Atlanta would have an awesome end game. Until then, Soriano will pick up the pieces for Gonzalez, as he has done twice already this season. With his strong peripherals, Soriano will be offered—and will earn—the occasional Save, but keep a DL spot free if you grab him.

True Talent and Next Week Forecast are taken from Heater Magazine.

Posted by THT Staff at 1:01am (0) Comments

Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospects - 5/1/09

My #1 goal as your fantasy minor league expert is to create the ultimate minor league resource for all of you keeper league players out there. What better way to do that than create a Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospects list? It's not just your typical Top 100; I am solely concentrating on cold, hard stats. Defense does not factor in, although superior defensive ability could certainly push a player up the minor league ladder and into the majors faster.

I have only gone in depth on my Top 10, as of now. This project is a major undertaking, but I hope to have many more players fully broken down along with an updated ranking for next week. After that I will be updating the rankings and projections every month so you can stay on top of the most promising players in the minor leagues.

I also plan on starting a monthly Q&A section. Send any and all minor league questions to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). I will get to as many of them as I can.

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1. Matt Wieters / C / Baltimore / AAA / 5/21/86 / ETA: 2009
2009 Thoughts:
I’m not worried about his AAA numbers at this point. They will pick up. If you are in need of catcher help, save your waiver wire position for a June call up. Expect Wieters to immediately join the top tier of catchers.
Average Year Projection:
.296 / .393 / 28 HR / 30 2B / 3 3B / 102 RBI / 86 R / 89 BB / 93 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.338 / .445 / 40 HR / 35 2B / 4 3B / 122 RBI / 101 R / 103 BB / 78 SO / 4 SB / 2 CS
Notes:
4/30/09 - There’s not much more that needs to be said about Wieters. He’s a superstar. I fully expect the Orioles to use him in a DH role during his “off” days. The main comparisons I keep hearing are Joe Mauer and Mark Teixeira. I look at him more as Mike Piazza with plus defense and the advantage of being a switch hitter. People forget about how much of a complete hitter Piazza was. Wieters has the same makeup, and should have a longer career. Fifteen years from now baseball historians will be arguing over who the best catcher of all time is: Johnny Bench, Yoggi Berra, or Matt Wieters.

2. Tommy Hanson / SP / Atlanta / AAA / 8/28/86 / ETA: 2009
2009 Thoughts:
Look for him to supplant the rotation spot of either Jo-Jo Reyes or Kenshin Kawakami in June, if the Braves can hold out that long. He will be a very useful starter in fantasy leagues. Don’t bank on ace-like numbers this year, but it’s possible.
Average Year Projection:
207 IP / 3.44 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 199 SO / 191 H / 66 BB
Prime Year Projection:
224 IP / 2.62 ERA / 1.17 WHIP / 20 W / 7 L / 241 SO / 198 H / 65 BB
Notes:
4/30/09 - I may be overly optimistic, but this kid just seems to have the “it” factor. He’s 6 feet, 6 inches, 220 pounds with three big league pitches, including a mid-90s fastball and a devastating curveball. The Braves strike again. He will run into some control issues early in his career (most do), but I am fully expecting an ace career out of Tommy Hanson.

3. Matt LaPorta / OF/1B / Cleveland / AAA / 1/8/85 / ETA: 2009
2009 Thoughts:
The man is mashing at AAA. Expect him to be a full-time player after a June call up. He will give your team a great boost, a la Jay Bruce in 2008 and Ryan Braun in 2007.
Average Year Projection:
.282 / .368 / 31 HR / 28 2B / 1 3B / 105 RBI / 86 R / 80 BB / 124 SO / 2 SB / 2 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.308 / .399 / 42 HR / 31 2B / 3 3B / 129 RBI / 103 R / 91 BB / 112 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS
Notes:
4/30/09 - He’s not only the best power hitter in minor league baseball, but he has good contact skills and a strong eye at the plate. A true middle of the order hitter. He will be a passable defender at either left field or first base. He’s durable and a good clubhouse guy. Analysts are sleeping on LaPorta. He’s 24 already, but I’m not concerned. His prime is near.

4. David Price / SP / Tampa Bay / AAA / 8/26/85 / ETA: 2009
2009 Thoughts:
They will keep him down at AAA for as long as they can, but I’m expecting a June or July call up. He may go to the bullpen, as the big league rotation looks strong. I’m not counting on a big fantasy season due to the unpredictable situation.
Average Year Projection:
198 IP / 3.67 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 14 W / 9 L / 182 SO / 189 H / 69 BB
Prime Year Projection:
212 IP / 2.85 ERA / 1.19 WHIP / 18 W / 8 L / 223 SO / 194 H / 58 BB
Notes:
4/30/09 - I'm slightly concerned about Price’s stamina. Control issues could keep him from truly succeeding at the major league level for a couple of years, but by the time he’s 26 or 27 I’m expecting a No. 1 pitcher to emerge. Some are concerned about a sore elbow he had in 2008. I’m not; his mechanics are solid. He’s a strong competitor with ideal size and a nasty fastball/slider combo. Playing in the AL East will ultimately hurt his fantasy appeal.

5. Madison Bumgarner / SP / San Francisco / A+ / 8/1/89 / ETA: 2011
2009 Thoughts:
If he continues to dominate, which I believe he will, a ticket up to AA is all his. And I can’t wait.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
4/30/09 - I’m not afraid to admit it; I have a man crush on Madison Bumgarner. I love his work ethic. His secondary pitches will get better. They will have to if he wants to continue this level of dominance at the AA level. He possesses an easy arm action and strong mechanics. His plus fastball has great movement. His command is off the charts for a kid his age. He not only has ace potential, he has “best pitcher in all of baseball” potential. But because he’s so young and hasn’t seen competition beyond A-ball, I have to rank him below Hanson and Price at this time.

6. Mat Gamel / 3B/OF / Milwaukee / AAA / 7/26/85 / ETA: 2009
2009 Thoughts:
The man is off to a torrid start. Last year was no fluke. It’s hard projecting a call-up date for Gamel due to his defensive inadequacies, but he will be called up at some point as long as Milwaukee stays in the race. When that happens, expect a platoon situation at 3B where Gamel receives the bulk of the starts against right handers.
Average Year Projection:
.288 / .349 / 24 HR / 43 2B / 7 3B / 98 RBI / 92 R / 59 BB / 113 SO / 6 SB / 3 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.311 / .385 / 30 HR / 47 2B / 9 3B / 110 RBI / 100 R / 66 BB / 102 SO / 9 SB / 4 CS
Notes:
4/30/09 - Gamel sports an impressive, pure swing. He has progressed and gotten better at every stop he has made on his way up the minor league chain. I just feel like this guy can’t miss; his bat is too good. I view him as a poor man’s Chipper Jones, although I have serious doubts about his ability to stick at third base. A corner outfield position is in his future. But his bat and ability to spray the ball all over the field have me impressed.

7. Travis Snider / OF / Toronto / MLB / 2/2/88
2009 Thoughts:
Although he is having some success at the major league level, don’t expect anything more than a No. 4 outfielder provides in your average fantasy setup.
Average Year Projection:
.270 / .354 / 25 HR / 34 2B / 3 3B / 95 RBI / 83 R / 74 BB / 138 SO / 4 SB / 3 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.289 / .375 / 32 HR / 37 2B / 4 3B / 116 RBI / 96 R / 82 BB / 126 SO / 5 SB / 3 CS
Notes:
4/30/09 - I like the minor success he is having in the majors this year. It gives me confidence in his ranking. It will take a few years to reach his potential. He whiffs a lot more than I like, but he is a true professional hitter. His defense will play in left field, and that is a sigh of relief for many fantasy owners. I don’t see as much pure power as some are predicting, but I like him and feel safe with his major league prospects.

8. Chris Tillman / SP / Baltimore / AAA / 4/15/88 / ETA: 2010
2009 Thoughts:
Expect him to stay at AAA all season, to great results. But I’ll be watching to see how AAA hitters adjust to his stuff.
Average Year Projection:
195 IP / 3.76 ERA / 1.34 WHIP / 14 W / 9 L / 175 SO / 194 H / 67 BB
Prime Year Projection:
208 IP / 3.03 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 204 SO / 199 H / 59 BB
Notes:
4/30/09 - He's really showing his potential with his move to AAA this year, and I’m impressed. He has a strong repertoire, even though it may not be elite. He has the history of good results that I love. He’s a big, strong kid with good mechanics. His intangibles and confidence really make me believe.

9. Jesus Montero / C/1B / NY Yankees / A+ / 11/28/89 / ETA: 2011
2009 Thoughts:
Expect him to stay at A+ Tampa throughout 2009, where he will continue to display his raw power potential and work on his catching skills.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
4/30/09 - His hitting prowess is starting to come into full bloom. The Yanks want to keep him behind the plate, which will take time. Hopefully his bat won’t stagnate while it waits for his glove to catch up. But it could turn out to be time well spent, obviously. A year or two from now he could be sitting where Matt LaPorta is right now as the best power hitter in the minor leagues. Ultimately, his best asset is his youth, which could be a gift or a curse.

10. Mike Moustakas / 3B / Kansas City / A+ / 9/11/88 / ETA: 2011
2009 Thoughts:
I fully anticipate a call up to AA at some point, after a few months of mashing in Wilmington. Will KC try to get him some work at SS? I doubt it. 3B seems to be his fit.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
4/30/09 - The No. 1 skill that stands out to me, Moustakas has the quickest wrists in the minors. He makes good contact too, even though he has yet to see AA pitching. I’m watching and waiting for his eye and plate discipline to catch up to his physical bat skills, but he has lots of time to get things figured out. I wish the Royals would keep him at shortstop. I think he can play the position at a major league level. Fantasy owners share my sentiments.

11. Jarrod Parker / SP / Arizona / A+ / 11/24/88 / ETA: 2011
12. Lars Anderson / 1B / Boston / AA / 9/25/87 / ETA: 2010
13. Buster Posey / C / San Francisco / A+ / 3/27/87 / ETA: 2010
14. Justin Smoak / 1B / Texas / AA / 12/5/86 / ETA: 2010
15. Dexter Fowler / OF / Colorado / MLB / 3/22/86
16. Jason Heyward / OF / Atlanta / A+ / 8/9/89 / ETA: 2011
17. Rick Porcello / SP / Detroit / MLB / 12/27/88
18. Carlos Triunfel / SS / Seattle / AA / 2/27/90 / ETA: 2011
19. Jordan Zimmermann / SP / Washington / MLB / 5/23/86
20. Michael Stanton / OF / Florida / A+ / 11/8/89 / ETA: 2011
21. Angel Villalona / 1B / San Francisco / A+ / 8/13/90 / ETA: 2011
22. Logan Morrison / 1B / Florida / AA / 8/25/87 / ETA: 2010
23. Neftali Feliz / SP/RP / Texas / AAA / 5/2/88 / ETA: 2010
24. Kyle Blanks / 1B / San Diego / AAA / 9/11/86 / ETA: 2010
25. Gordon Beckham / SS / Chicago White Sox / AA / 9/16/86 / ETA: 2010
26. Colby Rasmus / OF / St. Louis / MLB / 8/11/86
27. Derek Holland / SP / Texas / MLB / 10/9/86
28. Pedro Alvarez / 3B / Pittsburgh / A+ / 2/6/87 / ETA: 2010
29. Brett Anderson / SP / Oakland / MLB / 2/1/88
30. Hector Rondon / SP / Cleveland / AA / 2/26/88 / ETA: 2011
31. Cameron Maybin / OF / Florida / MLB / 4/4/87
32. Andrew Lambo / OF / LA Dodgers / AA / 8/11/88 / ETA: 2011
33. Trevor Cahill / SP / Oakland / MLB / 3/1/88
34. Jeremy Hellickson / SP / Tampa Bay / AA / 4/8/87 / ETA: 2011
35. Jhoulys Chacin / SP / Colorado / AA / 1/7/88 / ETA: 2011
36. Tim Alderson / SP / San Francisco / A+ / 11/3/88 / ETA: 2011
37. Brian Matusz / SP / Baltimore / A+ / 2/11/87 / ETA: 2011
38. Brett Lawrie / 2B/3B/OF / Milwaukee / A / 1/18/90 / ETA: 2011
39. Carlos Santana / C / Cleveland / AA / 4/8/86 / ETA: 2011
40. Michael Bowden / SP / Boston / AAA / 9/9/86 / ETA: 2010
41. Austin Jackson / OF / NY Yankees / AAA / 2/1/87 / ETA: 2010
42. Brett Wallace / 3B / St. Louis / AA / 8/26/86 / ETA: 2010
43. Elvis Andrus / SS / Texas / MLB / 8/26/88
44. Jake Arrieta / SP / Baltimore / AA / 3/6/86 / ETA: 2011
45. Aaron Hicks / OF / Minnesota / EST / 10/2/89 / ETA: 2012
46. Daryl Jones / OF / St. Louis / AA / 6/25/87 / ETA: 2011
47. Aaron Cunningham / OF / Oakland / AAA / 4/24/86 / ETA: 2010
48. Tyler Flowers / C / Chicago White Sox / AA / 1/24/86 / ETA: 2011
49. Michael Saunders / OF / Seattle / AAA / 11/19/86 / ETA: 2010
50. Fernando Martinez / OF / NY Mets / AAA / 10/10/88 / ETA: 2010
51. Michael Inoa / SP / Oakland / EST / 9/24/91 / ETA: 2012
52. Eric Hosmer / 1B / Kansas City / A / 10/24/89 / ETA: 2012
53. Jordan Schafer / OF / Atlanta / MLB / 9/4/86
54. Brandon Erbe / SP / Baltimore / AA / 12/25/87 / ETA: 2011
55. Ethan Martin / SP / LA Dodgers / A / 6/6/89 / ETA: 2011
56. Martin Perez / SP / Texas / A / 4/4/91 / ETA: 2013
57. Andrew McCutchen / OF / Pittsburgh / AAA / 10/10/86 / ETA: 2010
58. Desmond Jennings / OF / Tampa Bay / AA / 10/30/86 / ETA: 2010
59. Freddie Freeman / 1B / Atlanta / A+ / 9/12/89 / ETA: 2011
60. Christian Friedrich / SP / Colorado / A / 7/8/87 / ETA: 2012
61. Jeremy Jeffress / SP / Milwaukee / AA / 9/21/87 / ETA: 2011
62. Gerardo Parra / OF / Arizona / AA / 5/6/87 / ETA: 2011
63. Wilfredo Boscan / SP / Texas / A / 10/26/89 / ETA: 2012
64. Jordan Walden / SP / LA Angels / AA / 11/16/87 / ETA: 2011
65. Alcides Escobar / SS / Milwaukee / AAA / 12/16/86 / ETA: 2010
66. Jairo Heredia / SP / NY Yankees / EST / 10/8/89 / ETA: 2011
67. Caleb Gindl / OF / Milwaukee / A+ / 8/31/88 / ETA: 2011
68. Wade Davis / SP / Tampa Bay / AAA / 9/7/85 / ETA: 2010
69. Wilmer Flores / SS / NY Mets / A / 8/6/91 / ETA: 2012
70. Daniel Bard / RP / Boston / AAA / 6/25/85 / ETA: 2010
71. Max Ramirez / C / Texas / AAA / 10/11/84 / ETA: 2010
72. Carlos Carrasco / SP / Philadelphia / AAA / 3/21/87 / ETA: 2010
73. Jose Tabata / OF / Pittsburgh / AA / 8/12/88 / ETA: 2011
74. Casey Kelly / SP / Boston / A / 10/4/89 / ETA: 2013
75. Nolan Reimold / OF / Baltimore / AAA / 10/12/83 / ETA: 2009
76. Ben Revere / OF / Minnesota / A+ / 5/3/88 / ETA: 2011
77. Jason Knapp / SP / Philadelphia / A / 8/31/90 / ETA: 2013
78. Zeke Spruill / SP / Atlanta / A / 9/11/89 / ETA: 2013
79. Michael Pineda / SP / Seattle / A+ / 1/18/89 / ETA: 2012
80. Matt Dominguez / 3B / Florida / A+ / 8/28/89 / ETA: 2011
81. James McDonald / SP / LA Dodgers / MLB / 10/19/84
82. Adrian Cardenas / 2B/SS / Oakland / AA / 10/10/87 / ETA: 2010
83. Lance Lynn / SP / St. Louis / A+ / 5/12/87 / ETA: 2012
84. Bud Norris / SP / Houston / AAA / 3/2/85 / ETA: 2010
85. Dayan Viciedo / OF / Chicago White Sox / AA / 3/10/89 / ETA: 2011
86. Jason Castro / C / Houston / A+ / 6/18/87 / ETA: 2011
87. Trevor Reckling / SP / LA Angels / AA / 5/22/89 / ETA: 2011
88. Yonder Alonso / 1B / Cincinnati / A+ / 4/8/87 / ETA: 2011
89. Aaron Poreda / SP / Chicago White Sox / AA / 10/1/86 / ETA: 2011
90. David Hernandez / SP / Baltimore / AAA / 5/13/85 / ETA: 2010
91. Brandon Crawford / SS / San Francisco / A+ / 1/21/87 / ETA: 2011
92. Kris Medlen / SP/RP / Atlanta / AAA / 10/7/85 / ETA: 2010
93. Phillippe Aumont / RP / Seattle / A+ / 1/7/89 / ETA: 2011
94. Dominic Brown / OF / Philadelphia / A+ / 9/3/87 / ETA: 2012
95. Gio Gonzalez / SP / Oakland / AAA / 9/19/85 / ETA: 2009
96. Josh Vitters / 3B / Chicago Cubs / A / 8/27/89 / ETA: 2012
97. Sean West / SP / Florida / AA / 6/15/86 / ETA: 2011
98. J.P. Arencibia / C / Toronto / AAA / 1/5/86 / ETA: 2011
99. Josh Lindblom / SP / LA Dodgers / AA / 6/15/87 / ETA: 2011
100. Tim Beckham / SS / Tampa Bay / A / 1/27/90 / ETA: 2012

Other players that I'm watching closely:
Gorkys Hernandez
Kyle Skipworth
Vance Worley
Dellin Betances
Todd Frazier
Jonathon Niese
Lou Marson
Trevor Harden
Cody Johnson
Daniel Duffy
John Jaso
D.J. Mitchell
Reese Havens
Wilson Ramos
Ross Seaton
Mike Carp
Dexter Carter
Brad Holt
Mauricio Robles
Matt Maloney
Brandon Snyder
Brett Cecil
Yohermyn Chavez
Chris Carter
Kevin Mulvey
Jason Donald
David Huff
Michael Taylor
Reid Brignac
Brett Lorin

Posted by Matt Hagen at 1:02am (6) Comments

Hit Rate Observer

So you want a starting pitcher who’ll get you a win. Which do you choose?

“A good one.” Yes—but pitchers who are good at getting wins might be less good at other things…

Let’s start here: Suppose you have a 4.50 ERA pitcher. How many wins can he be expected to get? I am sure we could run a calculation based on overall runs allowed and runs scored and get an approximate total for the season. However, since wins are accumulated by game, it may be fruitful to stick to that level. (For the discussion that follows, I will use ERA as our guide, though certainly RA would be a touch better.)

Now, a “W” is a matter of bookkeeping; it goes to the pitcher who was in the game when a team took its final lead. As such, the critical component for a starter to get the “W” is how long he lasts. Obviously, skill plays a role in that. And events don’t always correlate perfectly—in a blow-out win, a thriving pitcher might be pulled early to rest his arm, while in a losing but low-scoring affair, a manager may ride his ace. In general, though, the deeper into a game that a starter pitches, the better his chances for the Win.

So our scheme is two-step:

1. How deep into a game is our 4.50 ERA pitcher expected to go?
2. What is the win likelihood for a pitcher who goes that distance?

We can get an idea of the answer to the first question by looking at the aggregate ERAs of starters who pitched games of different lengths. We collected data from 2006-2009. The answer turns out to be neat:

Outs = 27 - (2*ERA)

That is, the expected number of outs is equal to 27 minus twice the starter's ERA. That’s a close re-statement of the trend line from this graph:

(Note: In this graph, the dependent variable is actually Outs Lasted; I’ve rotated the graph for our purposes.) By this rule of thumb, a 6.00 ERA starter would give us 15 outs (5 innings), a 0.00 ERA starter would go nine innings, and our 4.50-ERA guy can be expected to last six innings.

That answers the first part of our question. Now: All things equal, what’s the win likelihood for a six-inning start? Here are the numbers from 2006-09:

Win likelihood goes from roughly 1-in-4 in a five-inning start to greater than 9-in-10 (but well less than 100%) for a nine-inning start. (We removed the data points for 25 and 26 outs because there are so few examples.)

The graph is actually slightly better fit by an exponential curve than by a straight line:

A non-linear curve is reasonable: Holding a lead deeper into a game not only deprives the opponent of more chances to recover but also lets the starter hand off the game to his better relievers.

If we read a six-inning start from the trend line, we find that our 4.50 ERA starter has a 35.5% chance of getting the win. (This is not considering the efficiency of the two offenses or of the bullpen.)

That’s informative, but the exponential curve of our second graph has a deeper implication, which is that you really want a starter who can go deep into games, even if he also sometimes flames out. Consider two starts of a combined 14 innings: A starter who goes seven innings in each start has an expected total in the two games of 0.98 Wins, whereas a starter who goes five innings in one start but nine innings in the other has an expected total of 1.18 Wins—a fifth of a Win more. In fantasy, erratic genius pays.

Does this genius have an identifiable quality? What skill or skills are good for the long haul? To find out, we calculated the aggregate K/9 and BB/9 of all starters who reached X or more outs in a game:

The above is not a typical line graph; instead, the line here tracks the shifting skills exhibited in starts of increasing length. The path consists of 28 points—from 0 outs (shown by the orange dot) to 27 outs (shown by the green dot). Each point gives the strikeout and walk rates posted by starters who recorded that many outs or more. (The blue dot marks 21 outs—the end of the seventh inning.)

The graph has two sets of arcs. The main arc sweeps from the upper right to the lower left, from the first out to the last. There are a number of fascinating aspects. For one thing, there’s little distinction in strikeout rate from basically the start of the game to the seventh inning; at each step, we’re looking at 6.3-6.4 K/9.

In starts that last more than seven innings, strikeout rate does takes a turn—but lower, not higher. Starts that go into the eighth inning are characterized by an overall strikeout rate of just 6.2 K/9. And the rate in nine-inning starts is well below 6.0 K/9.

A higher strikeout rate is no help to going deeper into games. In fact, to reach a start longer than seven innings, it’s a downright hindrance. One reason is certain: Strikeouts cost pitches, generally more than the number required to post an equivalent number of non-K outs. We also wonder if, even apart from the ballooning pitch count, power pitchers lose control earlier in the game than do finesse pitchers.

What is important—far more important—for pitching deep into a game is a low walk rate. We can show this more clearly in a second graph, this one a straightforward plot of K/9 and K/BB versus Outs Reached:

In nine-inning starts, K/BB nearly eclipses K/9!

Now, there is some backwardness here: The data show that long starts are characterized by high K/BB, not that pitchers with high K/BB are fated to pitch long. Still, I think the point holds.

Fantasy leaguers love strikeouts. And it’s a fair point that a high strikeout rate can contribute to a high K/BB. However, these graphs say that a low walk rate deserves allegiance on its own. A walk rate under 2.0 BB/9 is a sign of not only control but also good health and, within a game, an absence of fatigue. And it’s the pitcher’s walk rate, not his strikeout rate, that determines whether he will stay in a game in which he is pitching well.

If you’re scouting for wins, you should leap at the chance to roster a starter with a 2.5 K/BB, even if he has a sub-6.0 K/9. What he costs in Ks, he could recoup in Ws.

(What about the second set of arcs? Those are the epicycles, the curious switchbacks in which strikeout rate creeps up and then suddenly drops. The drops mark the start of new innings. The decision to send a starter who has completed N innings back into the (N+1)th inning relies on factors other than his arm—whether the game is close, whether the bullpen is fresh. However, once a starter has been put in for another inning, then whether he survives to the end of that inning does depend, marginally, on his K rate.)

Posted by John Burnson at 1:52am (7) Comments

Monday, May 04, 2009

Roster Doctor 05/04/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

Let's see what we have for today.

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 10
Categories: 5x5
Scoring Type: Head-to-Head
Other Notes: Keeper League
Roster:

C: Chris Iannetta
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: Jimmy Rollins
3B: Chipper Jones
OF: Josh Hamilton
OF: Ryan Ludwick
OF: Adam Jones
Util: Aubrey Huff
BN: Corey Hart
BN: Adam Lind
BN: Kelly Johnson
BN: Marco Scutaro

SP: Cole Hamels
SP: Francisco Liriano
SP: Derek Lowe
SP: Javier Vazquez
SP: John Danks
SP: Kyle Davies
RP: Brandon Morrow
RP: Frank Francisco

Today’s roster is provided by Eric, who questions why his team has been having trouble this season. Obviously, every manager who owns Chris Iannetta and (especially) Jimmy Rollins has been frustrated by their performances thus far this season. While it wasn’t specified in the email, any troubles in the stolen base category can be explained by Jimmy Rollins’ struggles at the plate. Its awfully difficult to steal bases when you have an on-base percentage of less than .300. But, I think both Rollins and Iannetta will be just fine and, in fact, both have hit over .300 this past week. So with Rollins heading in the right direction, this team should be a little more competitive in the stolen bases category.

I think its fairly clear that this team could use some help in the power categories, especially since Josh Hamilton was recently placed on the disabled list. The good news is that this team has some depth, and I would plug either Lind or Hart into the lineup, depending on the match-up. Lind has hit in the fifth spot all year for the Blue Jays and should provide more home runs and RBIs while Hart should net more runs and stolen bases.

I would actually consider trading Ludwick and try to deal for more power. I don’t see Ludwick maintaining his performance for the entire year, and I would trade him while his value is essentially at its highest. I would consider dealing him in a two-for-one package deal, along with someone like Scutaro, who is on fire but very unlikely to maintain the rates he has been posting thus far. I would target someone like Ryan Braun who is more valuable all-around but who hasn't been playing up to par yet this season.

I’m not sure what the position eligibility is like in this league, but in many leagues, Brandon Morrow qualifies as both a starter and reliever. If he qualifies as a starting pitcher, I would definitely look to start three closers, especially since this is only a 10-team league. And considering this league depth, I’m not sure its worth holding onto Kyle Davies. If there isn’t a serviceable starter on the waiver wire, I’d recommend picking up a reliever who qualifies as a starter, and plug him in to help keep the ERA and WHIP numbers down. It just seems like Davies would do more damage than good to your team at this depth.

Also, since second base is a fairly deep position this year relative to previous years, I might drop Kelly Johnson to pick up more power. Again, this league is not that deep so Johnson loses some value especially since similar players like Mike Aviles can most likely still be found on the free agent list. The added player may not get much playing time, but that addition could help in the future, whether to help compensate for injuries or as a toss-in player in trade proposals. I just don’t think Kelly Johnson is worth a roster spot in this league.

Posted by Marco Fujimoto at 2:04am (0) Comments

Closer carousel

This past week was surely an active one for owners scrounging for saves, with changes coming in five bullpens. Manny Corpas was overtaken by Huston Street in Colorado, Jose Valverde and Brandon Morrow were placed on the disabled list, Trevor Hoffman returned from the DL, and Joel Hanrahan was removed in Washington.

While most of the replacements were obvious, the situation in Washington is still unsettled. We've yet to see a save opportunity come, so we're still mostly just speculating who will be the favorite for the role. Manager Manny Acta said that he'll go with a committee of Julian Tavarez, Kip Wells, and Joe Beimel (once he comes off the DL, probably on Wednesday), but one of those guys will likely get the majority of the saves. Today, I'd like to speculate a bit on who it will be.

Leverage Index

To do this, I'd like to reintroduce an old friend: Leverage Index (gmLI). I first talked about its uses for fantasy owners in this article last year. If you haven't read it, I highly recommend it. For those too lazy too, here's a quick excerpt:

What I believe this will tell us is how much a manager trusts a particular reliever in important situations. This could be a conscious thing the manager is doing or an unconscious one; either way, it can give us valuable insights into how he views the various members of his bullpen...

Keep in mind that this is not absolute. Just because a player is used in more critical situations doesn't mean he is automatically going to be the favorite for saves. We need to immerse ourselves in as much information as possible and try to make out what's really going on. Remember that this is simply one such piece of information, albeit a potentially important one.

Let's take a look at how gmLI would have predicted a couple of the other changes that occurred this week:

Seattle Mariners Closer

David Aardsma - 2.02
Shawn Andrew Kelley - 1.88
Chris Jakubauskas - 1.49
Miguel Batista - 1.34
Roy Corcoran - 1.27
Mark Lowe - 0.62
Sean White - 0.52

With Morrow hitting the DL, everyone pretty much knew that David Aardsma was next in line. gmLI nailed this one. Note for AL-only leaguers: Shawn Andrew Kelley is having a great year with terrific peripherals. He has a pretty good minor league track record as well, so he might be a nice ratio helper. Definitely worth a flier in deep leagues.

Houston Astros closer

Tim Byrdak - 1.51
LaTroy Hawkins - 1.43
Chris Sampson - 1.12
Geoff Geary - 1.11
Doug Brocail - 0.99
Felipe Paulino - 0.99
Wesley Wright - 0.46
Russ Ortiz - 0.36
Jeff Fulchino - 0.38

As we know, with Valverde on the DL, LaTroy Hawkins will be closing games in Houston. He was second in Leverage Index to Tim Byrdak, whose number may be inflated as a lefty or who may have been passed over because he is a lefty. Doug Brocail was drafted in many leagues as Valverde's backup, but he's given up a lot of runs and clearly isn't trusted as much as he was last year. Manager Cecil Cooper said that Chris Sampson (third in gmLI) and Brocail (fifth but probably with some residual trust) might also see some occasional saves.

Overall, gmLI was pretty solid.

Washington Nationals closer

Now for the Nats.

Mike Hinckley - 1.42
Julian Tavarez - 1.28
Kip Wells - 1.25
Garrett Mock - 1.23
Joe Beimel - 1.16
Saul Rivera - 1.09

What we know so far is that Tavarez, Wells, and Beimel are the three candidates. Hinckley comes in No. 1 in gmLI, but as a lefty, perhaps he can be discounted.

Mock comes in above Beimel, but his number is influenced by early season trust. If you remember a couple of weeks ago, when Hanrahan's job was first in jeopardy, he and Beimel were the two candidates discussed. He's since been removed from contention.

Logan Kensing is the only other reliever on the 25-man roster, but he was recently acquired (and thus doesn't have a gmLI yet) and his name hasn't been discussed as a potential closer.

So that leaves us with an order of Tavarez, Wells, and Beimel (pre-injury number, naturally). Does that mean Tavarez is the best bet? Well, he and Wells are very close, yet Beimel was the only one being talked about two weeks ago. Overall, this is still a very murky situation.

So what else do we know? Wells has a 1.42 ERA, but his skills are the worst with an xFIP of 5.79 and a 2008 figure of 6.46. Even if he gets the first few save opportunities and wins the job, I just can't see him keeping it for very long. It's hard to imagine him posting an ERA under 5.00, and that just won't fly.

Tavarez has solid skills but a 4.50 ERA. He's an extreme ground ball pitcher and has done well enough when restricted to a relief role (see: 2004, 2005, 2008). His 2004 and 2006 (a few starts mixed in) were pretty bad, however. Still, he posted an 8.4 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, and 53 percent GB% last year and is off to an even better start in 2009.

Beimel had a 1.23 ERA before his injury and hasn't posted an ERA north of 4.00 since 2004 (with two years under 3.00). His xFIP's have all been in the mid-to-high 4.00s, but there is a chance that he can control his HR/FB. It's just 7.1 percent for his career (league average is 11 percent-ish), and he's allowed just one homer since 2006 (123.2 IP).

So that leaves us with two legitimate candidates: Tavarez and Beimel. It's close, but I'm putting my money on Tavarez. There is one big warning flag with Beimel that leads me to believe he just couldn't last long as closer. He is awful against right-handed batters. Almost every year he walks more batters than he strikes out against RHB. That's just not going to cut it for a closer.

If he comes back healthy (or, rather, appears healthy to Manny Acta), I imagine he'll get the first couple save chances. It's fine to pick him up and then try to deal him, but long-term, Tavarez is the only one of the three who I think has any chance of lasting.

Please caution, however: don't sleep on Hanrahan. He's mostly just been unlucky and is by far the best option of the bunch.

One final note: don't discount the Nationals' save situation because they're a poor team. Poor teams close plenty of games.

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:13am (1) Comments

Confessions of a fantasy baseball addict: Picking up the hyped prospect

Saturday saw one of the most anticipated call-ups of the 2009 season. The Cleveland Indians recalled one of the games top right-handed power prospects, OF Matt LaPorta. And promptly sat him on the bench so lefty hitting Dave Dellucci could DH against right-hander Zach Miner.

A week and a half earlier, the Los Angeles Angels saw their top power threat, OF Vladimir Guerrero, go on the disabled list with a torn pectoral muscle. With the team’s top power prospect Brandon Wood ripping up Triple-A, many in the baseball and fantasy industry saw his recall inevitably leading to the full-time at-bats we richly believed he deserved. Instead, manager Mike Scioscia batted the likes of Macier Izturis and Robb Quinlan in the three-hole and/or at DH and has used Wood in just three games over that period.

Other than the excitement of rostering the next hyped rookie, playing time enigmas like Wood and LaPorta mean close to nothing to the typical mixed league player. With an abundance of free agent hitters in the player pool, there is nothing to compel the mixed leaguer to add a player whose professional production consists entirely of rosy projections rather than one whose production has been demonstrated at the major league level.

In single league formats, though, rostering the next hyped rookie is imperative. With a player pool consisting of little used back-up catchers, fifth outfielders and obligatory back-ups in the middle infield, there exists only the potential of rosy projections. Even when those projections prove to be more thorn than rose, fantasy players in AL- and NL-only leagues still get more production than otherwise was freely available.

Addtionally, the AL/NL-only player cannot allow a potential full-time player to go to a competitor's team because the free agent pool already reflects the number of these players at any one time: zero. Very rarely are there more than a team or two in an AL/NL Only league who doesn't have a dead spot on their active roster. A typical mixed league free agent pool is filled with multiple starting players at each available positions, and every team has everyday players on their active rosters

Because the opportunity cost for hyped rookies is so low in AL- and NL-only leagues (losing nothing relative to the freely available players nor by cutting productive active players), getting excited about the chance to add a Brandon Wood or Matt LaPorta becomes an event in fantasy baseball. The question that remains unanswered at this point is why an industry currently dominated by mixed league formats generates any excitement at all about a prospect.

Others call-ups to watch who can still help AL- and NL-Only leaguers without a marquee role:

3B Mat Gamel, Milwaukee Brewers: The lefty masher is toying with Triple-A the way Matt LaPorta did. The Brewers currently play Craig Counsell at 3B against left-handed starters. Gamels’ bat would seem to be quite an improvement over that. Left sides of platoons make for quality options in single format leagues.

RP Daniel Bard, Boston Red Sox: The converted starter does nothing but strike out hitters or keep the ball on the ground (23 strikeouts in 13.2 innings with a 2.20 GO/FO ratio at Triple-A). He has no chance at closing in Boston but has the type of arm that makes LIMA adherents drool. Mixed leaguers need not apply.

OF Will Venable, San Diego Padres: The Padres have outfield at-bats for the taking. First baseman Kyle Blanks would be a no-brainer NL-only grab if the Padres played him in the outfield. That doesn’t seem likely as he only plays there before Triple-A games and not during them. Venable, however, is the starting center fielder and could help NL-only teams if recalled.

OF Justin Maxwell, Washington Nationals: In a week long stint with the Nats, Maxwell stole three bases to remind fantasy leaguers of the 27 home run, 35 steal season he had between Low- and High-A in 2007. There doesn’t appear to be anywhere for Maxwell to play with Lastings Milledge awaiting the end of his Triple-A banishment and Elijah Dukes currently in center field for the Nats. This would prevent any mixed leaguer from adding him, but NL-only ones can benefit from 10 at-bats per week if they come with a steal and a home run every other week.

Last Week Follow-Up: Kansas City Royals middle reliever Jamey Wright pitched in the ninth inning of a 9-1 loss and the eighth inning of a couple games but did not pitch in the ninth of any of the four games the Royals won while closer Joakim Soria was recovering. Juan Cruz received the only save opportunity and converted it successfully.

Posted by Eric Hinz at 2:23am (6) Comments

Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Fingers pointed

To kick off part two of this series, we are gong to start with a mini lesson in small sample sizes. The stats in the first article were through last Tuesday's games and the stats in this part of today's article will be through Saturday's. That's four games more in the second set.

Below is a table showing the batting averages and BABIPs of all the players named in the first article.

                      Average                     BABIP
Player           Tues.  Sat.   [Diff]        Tues.  Sat.   [Diff]
Albert Pujols     0.320  0.356  0.036        0.279  0.314  0.035
Torii Hunter      0.319  0.314  0.005        0.300  0.292  0.008
Andre Ethier      0.312  0.308  0.004        0.317  0.329  0.012
Adam Dunn         0.328  0.299  0.029        0.333  0.320  0.013
Nelson Cruz       0.278  0.262  0.016        0.280  0.276  0.004

David Wright      0.282  0.284  0.002        0.404  0.400  0.004
Carl Crawford     0.274  0.290  0.016        0.354  0.367  0.013
Kevin Kouzmanoff  0.269  0.237  0.032        0.339  0.309  0.030
Jhonny Peralta    0.225  0.209  0.016        0.327  0.298  0.029
Russell Martin    0.225  0.224  0.001        0.308  0.297  0.011

J.J. Hardy        0.174  0.156  0.018        0.188  0.164  0.024

           Average Difference = 0.016    Average Difference = 0.017

The thing to focus on is the average difference in change in batting average and BABIP over the four days. Both are about .015 or in layman's terms, 15 points. Considering the small period of time over which this change happened, that is surprisingly large. Well, only surprising to those who beforehand did not have a good concept of how much rate stats fluctuate in the early going.

In case you are worried that the average difference in batting average and BABIP of these eleven batters does not reflect all batters, for those interested, the average change in batting average from Tuesday to Saturday for every batter was 0.017 and for BABIP it was .015. Close enough.

Despite the volatility of these rate stats, there is still validity in a higher or lower than expected batting average, or higher or lower BABIP. In today's article I will detail several players whose BABIPs lead me to believe that soon enough they should start playing closer to what preseason expectations were.

A note before we begin: Players performing better than expected should not start playing worse than expected in the future; they should be expected to play at the level we expect them to play at. It sounds obvious enough when I say it like that, but it remains a concept many fail to grasp. For example, let's say we expected Nick Swisher to hit .250 this year. Because he is batting over .300 now does not mean that the baseball gods are going to exact retribution on him and make him hit below .250 for the remainder of the season so he finishes with a .250 average.

Karma does not exist in baseball in terms of luck. A streak of good luck does not necessarily follow a streak of bad luck. For another (and probably clearer) example of this, read Dave Cameron's explanation over at USS Mariner.

With that fallacy out of the way, here is the first set of players:

Low production, lower BABIP (greater chance level of production increases)

Note: Stats from here to the end of the article are through Sunday's games

1) Lance Berkman — Owners of Berkman this year have to be disappointed with his current .172 batting average. So far he has gotten unlucky with balls in play as his BABIP sits at .153, so unless something is physically wrong with Berkman, he should start performing like himself sooner rather than later.

2) Jimmy Rollins — Similar to Berkman, Rollins is someone who has just been down on his luck so far this year with a .221 BABIP. Nothing you can do but wait.

3) Cody Ross — Ross is a player you know I like this year, and what I am about to say will only make you like him more. Like Berkman and Rollins, Ross has been unlucky; he is currently sporting a .254 BABIP. But unlike the other two, (whose Line Drive rates (LD%) are both 14 percent) Ross' LD percentage is at league-average 19 percent.

This means that while Rollins' and Berkman's lack of luck on balls in play is somewhat deserved because of their low LD rates, (and we only expect them to do better because we expect their LD percentages to return to their career norms) Ross still has a low BABIP despite hitting a normal amount of line drives. Therefore there is even a greater chance that Ross rebounds.

Instead of repeating the same explanation for more players, I am going to list a few more batters who fit the same mold as Ross, meaning they are especially likely to rebound. One thing to kind in mind, however, is that LD%—like other rate stats—is volatile right now, so any high LD percentage today could become low in less than a week. Keep an eye out for dramatic shifts.

Player                   OPS       BABIP       LD%
Jason Kendall           0.510      0.206       23
Kelly Johnson           0.724      0.224       17
Chris Young             0.594      0.237       20
Mike Aviles             0.539      0.262       24
Randy Winn              0.673      0.262       22
Grady Sizemore          0.804      0.268       21
Emmanuel Burriss        0.544      0.271       25

A wide range of players in this list, all of whom I expect to pick up the pace in the near future.

Now it is time to talk about the overachievers:

High production, high BABIP (greater chance level of production is reduced)

The hitters that fall into this category tend to be obvious (of course Youkilis won't bat over .400 the whole season) and over-discussed, so I scoured the player universe for less obvious and lesser-discussed players.

1) Christian Guzman — Guzman's sole fantasy value this year has come from his .373 batting average, the result of a .442 BABIP. The most impressive part: He's doing it all with a 10 percent LD rate. Eventually something's gotta give—either the BABIP will fall or that line drive rate will catch up. Most likely they both will make the shift towards each other, resulting in a lowered batting average for Guzman.

2) Jordan Schafer — This Braves outfielder has caught the eye of some in deep mixed and NL-only leagues, and I'll warn those people to be careful. Schafer is hanging onto a .260 average, which is precariously supported by a .400 BABIP. He is not going to hit leadoff again for a while, so it may be time to cut or bench the young outfielder.

After those two, I would have to resort to naming obvious players like Matt Kemp and Miguel Cabrera, so I will end this list here.

As a final disclaimer, I know I used line drive percentage many times in this article as a predictor of BABIP. While LD percentage is a significant determiner of BABIP, we know from the work of Bendix and Dutton that many other factors are in play. For my purposes, however, a simple check of the line drive percentage sufficed.

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:58am (3) Comments

What you need to know about player raters

Two weeks ago, we covered the innings pace projection as something that fantasy league providers like Yahoo, CBS Sports, and ESPN give to customers, often with the result of creating a psychological imperative towards a goal and shaping the way that those in leagues manage their pitching staffs.

Another tool that fantasy league providers give out is a “player rater”—a mathematical algorithm that takes accumulated statistics to date and spits out how players measure up to each other in overall fantasy value for the current season.

The psychological impact of seeing how one player compares to the next should not be underestimated. Raise your hand if you’ve ever offered or considered a trade in consult with your league provider’s player rater.

We believe there are a few basic things that everybody needs to know about player raters:

First, not all player raters are the same.

For example, Yahoo’s player rater is a pretty dominant feature in its service. You can’t make a trade without seeing it. And if you are using it, you’ll see the top current five batters so far in the 2009 season listed this way:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Ian Kinsler
3. Evan Longoria
4. Raul Ibanez
5. Adam Jones (yes, almost unbelievably, he’s No. 5)

You’ll have to search a bit harder for CBS Sports’ player rater. But once you find it, you’ll see a different order:

1. Ian Kinsler
2. Albert Pujols
3. Carl Crawford
4. Raul Ibanez
5. Kevin Youkilis

Part of the reason for the difference is that the gurus behind CBS Sports, for whatever reason, favor the Head-to-Head points scoring format, and in the past few seasons, has juggled its point calculation formula on “standard leagues.” They’ve constructed their player rater to place more weight on metrics like walks and negative value on metrics like losses and blown saves.

Second, highly scarce statistics like stolen bases and saves tend to make a big impact on player raters.

Obviously, categorical scarcity should play a role in determining value, but at the start of a season, things like a single save or stolen base can be a little deceiving. Take these two players and figure out who is rated as more valuable:

Felix Hernandez: 34 innings, 4 wins, 36 strikeouts, 2.38 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 0 saves
Jason Frasor: 10.1 innings, 4 wins, 6 strikeouts, 0.0 ERA, 0.48 WHIP, 1 saves

For those who guessed Frasor, congratulations.

It almost goes without saying that player raters measure retrospective value much better than prospective value. A pitcher with a poor strikeout rate may luck his way into a few wins and a good position on the player rater. That’s not to say that luck will continue.

Consider Ramon Ramirez, reliever for the Boston Red Sox, who currently has 2 wins and a 0.0 ERA despite having a strikeout rate of 4.8 per 9 innings pitched and a FIP (a measure of adjusted ERA based on peripherals and minus defense) of 3.1.

Right now, Yahoo’s player rater judges Ramon Ramirez to be the 15th most valuable pitcher in baseball, ahead of Josh Johnson, among others. Strip away the vulture wins and adjust the ERA and Mr. Ramirez wouldn’t crack the top 200 pitchers.

On the other hand, don’t totally discount the value of a good middle reliever with solid ratios. Year after year, those in fantasy baseball leagues express some disbelief that middle relievers are indeed valuable in leagues that don’t count holds. But in this case, statistics don’t lie.

Yes, in 2008, Grant Balfour computed as a Top 100 fantasy player, ahead of Michael Young, Corey Hart, and Scott Kazmir. Considering the season that Balfour is having now, it may be tough to figure out those rock-solid middle relievers, but they appear high up on player raters for a good reason: A sub-2.0 ERA in 80 innings is indeed quite valuable. That's a topic for another day, however.

Finally, the longer the season goes on, as sample sizes become larger and larger, player raters gain more credence, but also less worth.

At the start of the season, we all want players who are going to contribute to overall categorical success. As the season moves on, our position in some categories becomes fixed while the opportunity to move ahead in other categories offers promise. Making a player move becomes more dependent on the context of a particular league's standings.

If there's a conclusion to be drawn from all of this, it's that going for the player who is rated as having the highest overall value is not always the smartest move.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 3:28am (5) Comments

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Roster Doctor - 5/5/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

Today, I'm picking back up my important-looking lab coat, plastic stethoscope, and monocle (not at all doctor-related, but it makes me look both authoritative and awesome) to play Roster Doctor.

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 12
Categories: Traditional 5x5
Scoring Type: Roto
Roster:

C - John Baker
1B - Carlos Pena
2B - Chase Utley
3B - Aubrey Huff
SS - Jhonny Peralta
OF - Matt Kemp
OF - Jason Bay
OF - Shane Victorino
UT - Mark Teixeira
BN - Nelson Cruz
BN - Derrek Lee

SP - Dan Haren
SP - Josh Beckett
SP - Erik Bedard
SP - John Danks
SP - Jair Jurrjens
SP - Scott Richmond
RP - Heath Bell
RP - Scott Downs
RP - Jim Johnson

DL - Kelvim Escobar

The first thing I notice is that you have a couple of excellent bench hitters and a few weak spots in the starting lineup. Cruz should be starting on your team, and right away I'd bench either Pena, slide Teixeira over to first, and put Cruz into the UT spot, or simply bench Victorino. After that, I'd start shopping an outfielder or Pena. If you can get a guy with some speed in return, I probably like Victorino least, but who I trade would depend upon the return. Pena would probably provide the most value in a trade right now.

I think SS is your weakest offensive spot, and I might make a play for Michael Young. I mentioned before the season how he was often my SS target if I missed out on Reyes, Hanley, or Rollins, and he is tearing it up this year. He is hitting the ball a long way, and his power thus far is not looking fluky. If his owner thinks it is, he might be looking to sell high. We're still looking at a small sample size, and I'll talk more about him at a later date, but he makes a good target. A Victorino(or Pena)/Peralta for Young/Pitcher deal would probably benefit you.

Baker really doesn't cut it at catcher, though having an elite catcher in this format isn't necessary either. If Matt Wieters is on the wire, I would try to make bench room for him until he gets called up. In the mean time, I'd drop Baker for someone like Mike Napoli (probably not available), Kenji Johjima (most likely available), or a guy like Yadier Molina.

Lee's not having a great year so far, but that's at least partially bad luck and he doesn't belong on your bench. Neither does Pena, though he and Lee are your two bench hitters now (unless you trade an OF or bench Victorino). I'd begin seeing what Pena could fetch in a trade, and once Lee puts together a good couple weeks, I'd try to trade him as well. They'd have more value to you upgrading another spot (third base! third base!) than they would on the bench.

As to your pitching, Haren is having a great year—just as CAPS thought he would. This owner expressed concern over Beckett, but I wouldn't be too concerned. He's walking too many batters, but we're looking at a small sample and he's been excellent over the past few years. His ERA is mostly bad luck (absurd .398 BABIP and 59 percent LOB%), so I'd keep trotting him out there.

Bedard is pitching excellently, rewarding you handsomely for your investment, but he remains an injury concern. Depending on your penchant for risk, I might consider trading him. Ricky Nolasco is probably the best buy-low pitcher in all of baseball right now, so trading Bedard for Nolasco and a sizeable upgrade elsewhere would be a profitable move.

Danks is very solid, and Richmond has been pitching well so far. His MLEs have never been this good, though, so I might see what he would fetch on the trade market. Bell is great—hang onto him—and Downs is terrific if he can hold onto the job once Ryan returns. Johnson was likely a recent pickup, and I think it's a good one. He's been Baltimore's best reliever (ERA wise) of the three in contention for the closer role, and his gmLI is much higher than Ray's. His skills haven't been great in the past, but he's fine to hang onto over the next week to see if he lands the closer's job. If he does, look to trade for any other established closer.

Overall, a good team, but there is a good deal of waste and also some risk on the pitching side. I'd spread your talent out some more by making some trades, trying to make two-for-one deals where you get to upgrade a spot, particularly shortstop, third base, catcher, or a pitcher spot.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:00am (7) Comments

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Friday, May 01, 2009

Roster Doctor - 5/1/09