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June 20, 2013
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 Wednesday, May 06, 2009Keys to winning daily fantasy baseball contestsWhat follows are some of the keys to winning daily fantasy baseball contests, such as those offered at Draftbug, Snapdraft, and Fantasysportslive. Look for bargains — This is kind of obvious, but the salary cap limitations in these contests mean that you’re not usually going to be able to use an all-star type lineup. You’re going to need to search out some undervalued players and use them. One common source of these is players who will have an expanded role today due to an injury to another player. However, there are players who provide good value for more extended periods of time. Sometimes this is because player prices aren’t updated based upon superior performance. Other times, these values are available because the player’s value in a particular scoring format surpasses their reputation, so nobody notices that they’re underpriced. Check the news — Check the news to make sure that you’re not using anybody in your lineup who won’t be playing today. Lineups in these contests typically lock in after starting lineups for the early games are announced, so ideally you should make sure that your players are actually in the lineup. This also means that if you are going to be able to check lineups prior to your roster locking, then players with early games are going to be worth a few percentage points more to you on average than those with later games. Understand the rules — This goes for any format of fantasy baseball—you should always know the rules thoroughly. In particularly, the scoring systems vary in different daily contest formats, and you should make sure you’re selecting players who fare well in the scoring system your contest uses. A player like Jason Giambi is a pretty valuable if your system uses walks, but not so much otherwise. Also make sure that you know how the rules treat special cases like doubleheaders and rainouts. Larger contests require more risks — In a two-person contest, you should just go with the best possible lineup. In a larger contest (say 100 people), where the prize payouts are typically very top-heavy, you’re going to need to take some chances to have a shot at the top spot. Play for first place, not 10th. In the larger contests, you want to increase variance in your scoring. One way to do this is to pick players whose performance is likely to show a high correlation. For example, pick the starting pitcher and closer on one team. Another way is to increase variance is to take players whose scores tend to be more "feast or famine," such as home run hitters who strike out a lot. You also should be a little more willing to pick a clearly superior player who has a small to moderate chance of being rained out, if you’re playing in a larger contest. But in a heads-up contest, just play it safe and make sure that all your players will be playing today. Take opponents into account — When you evaluate players for your team, consider who their opponent is today. For pitchers, how strong is the opposing lineup? How strong is the opposing starting pitcher? For hitters, how strong are the opposing starting pitcher and bullpen? I’ve built a fairly complex statistical model to do this, and I suspect that other top players have as well. Take park factors into account — Where is the game being played? Ideally you want pitchers to be in favorable pitchers’ parks and hitters in favorable hitters’ parks, although there are plenty of cases when other factors may override this. This too, is part of my statistical model. However, like evaluating opponent quality, you can do it somewhat effectively simply by eyeballing the schedule and pitching match-ups each day before you make your picks. Posted by Alex Zelvin at 1:23am (3) Comments Thursday, May 07, 2009Paying for saves redux oneIn the pre-season, I wrote an article questioning the wisdom of the "don't pay for saves" mantra. Of course, rather than merely questioning, we'd like to come up with some answers. So I've started collecting data from this season on closers that we can use to test the don't pay for saves theory as the season goes along. Below is some data on closers: their names, their average auction values for a 5x5 mixed league (from CBS Sportsline) and their saves for this year as of Wednesday morning. Using the eyeball method, I've split the closers up into several categories, based on their auction values. The first group of five are the "elite" closers. These are the ones you're not supposed to pay for, perhaps. The second group of five are top closers. I put all closers that had values between $15 and $5 in the third group. The fourth group are the "value" closers and the fifth group is the "penny ante" group. I just included the top five penny ante closers, but the results are robust to including all the closers that were auctioned for $1. For each group, I've listed the average price, the average number of saves and the standard deviation of the saves. Elite Closers
average cost = $25.375, average saves = 5.2, standard deviation = 1.79 Top closers:
avg $ = $17.8, avg saves = 4.6 , stdev = 1.67
avg = $9.64, avg saves = 4.86, stdev = 1.99 $5 and under
avg = $3.5, avg saves = 3.625, stdev = 3.02 Penny Ante
avg = $1, avg saves = 1.6, stdev = 3.05 Some extremely preliminary conclusions: The elite group yielded the highest average number of saves, though you paid a pretty penny for just a fraction extra, so far. The middle group really benefits from having Broxton, Fuentes and Cordero. That group is going to suffer from Devine's injury but is hedged by having Ziegler. The bottom groups have a few all-stars (Bell, Francisco and Franklin), but also more than few duds too (Motte, Ray, Marmol). The bottom three groups have the highest standard deviations. For instance, the middle group has a fairly good average for the price, but is slightly riskier than the top two groups. The bottom groups are much riskier. It is worth pointing out again that the dollar values aren't these players' only costs. It is tempting to think that for $5 you could roster all five of the penny ante guys, getting more saves for much cheaper than, say, Papelbon's $27. Of course, you'd have to have started all of these players (if you couldn't predict their closing opportunities) or at the very least have them on a very deep bench (if you could perfectly predict their closing opportunities). Posted by Jonathan Halket at 1:10am (4) Comments Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospects - 5/7/09Send any and all minor league questions or comments to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). I will get to as many of them as I can in an upcoming Q&A. This week I got a lot of appreciated feedback, and I took some of it to heart. Keep the feedback coming. If you feel strongly about a player, share your thoughts. The Tim Beckham fan club was out in full force this week. Don't worry guys, if he keeps raking he'll keep moving. 1. Matt Wieters / C / Baltimore / Triple-A / 5/21/86 / ETA: 2009 Average Year Projection: .298 / .395 / 31 HR / 30 2B / 3 3B / 106 RBI / 89 R / 89 BB / 93 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS Prime Year Projection: .338 / .445 / 41 HR / 35 2B / 4 3B / 124 RBI / 102 R / 103 BB / 78 SO / 4 SB / 2 CS 2. Tommy Hanson / SP / Atlanta / Triple-A / 8/28/86 / ETA: 2009 Average Year Projection: 207 IP / 3.31 ERA / 1.21 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 202 SO / 187 H / 64 BB Prime Year Projection: 224 IP / 2.53 ERA / 1.13 WHIP / 20 W / 7 L / 244 SO / 190 H / 63 BB Notes: Dominated an overmatched Pawtucket lineup two starts ago with just average control. Took care of Syracuse in his latest outing, which featured 10 strikeouts in six innings. Needless to say, Hanson has me feeling giddy. 3. Matt LaPorta / OF/1B / Cleveland / Triple-A / 1/8/85 / ETA: 2009 Average Year Projection: .282 / .368 / 31 HR / 28 2B / 1 3B / 105 RBI / 86 R / 80 BB / 124 SO / 2 SB / 2 CS Prime Year Projection: .306 / .397 / 42 HR / 31 2B / 2 3B / 129 RBI / 103 R / 91 BB / 113 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS Notes: I’m not thrilled with Cleveland calling up LaPorta at this time. It puts him in limbo. All signs point to LaPorta simply getting sent back down as soon as Travis Hafner comes off the DL. I was hoping for a permanent call up later this year. On the bright side, LaPorta crushed his first big league dinger. There will be plenty more to come. 4. David Price/ SP / Tampa Bay / Triple-A / 8/26/85 / ETA: 2009 Average Year Projection: 198 IP / 3.67 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 14 W / 9 L / 182 SO / 189 H / 69 BB Prime Year Projection: 212 IP / 2.85 ERA / 1.19 WHIP / 18 W / 8 L / 223 SO / 194 H / 58 BB Notes: Price’s latest performance stood out, but for all the wrong reasons. The control issues are real, and his poor start to the season could send him on a slippery slope. His mechanics look consistent. Are his Triple-A problems all in his head? I will be monitoring his progress carefully. 5. Madison Bumgarner / SP / San Francisco / A+ / 8/1/89 / ETA: 2011 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. 6. Mat Gamel / 3B/OF / Milwaukee / Triple-A / 7/26/85 / ETA: 2009 Average Year Projection: .291 / .354 / 26 HR / 43 2B / 6 3B / 101 RBI / 95 R / 62 BB / 113 SO / 6 SB / 3 CS Prime Year Projection: .313 / .392 / 31 HR / 47 2B / 7 3B / 114 RBI / 101 R / 69 BB / 102 SO / 9 SB / 4 CS 7. Travis Snider / OF / Toronto / MLB / 2/2/88 Average Year Projection: .270 / .354 / 25 HR / 34 2B / 2 3B / 95 RBI / 83 R / 74 BB / 138 SO / 4 SB / 3 CS Prime Year Projection: .289 / .375 / 32 HR / 37 2B / 3 3B / 116 RBI / 96 R / 82 BB / 126 SO / 5 SB / 3 CS 8. Chris Tillman / SP / Baltimore / Triple-A / 4/15/88 / ETA: 2010 Average Year Projection: 195 IP / 3.76 ERA / 1.33 WHIP / 14 W / 9 L / 175 SO / 192 H / 67 BB Prime Year Projection: 208 IP / 3.03 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 16 W / 8 L / 204 SO / 197 H / 59 BB 9. Jesus Montero / C/1B / NY Yankees / A+ / 11/28/89 / ETA: 2012 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. 10. Mike Moustakas / 3B / Kansas City / A+ / 9/11/88 / ETA: 2011 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. 11. Justin Smoak / 1B / Texas / Double-A / 12/5/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: +3 Average Year Projection: .293 / .377 / 22 HR / 36 2B / 1 3B / 92 RBI / 82 R / 79 BB / 114 SO / 2 SB / 2 CS Prime Year Projection: .309 / .402 / 27 HR / 38 2B / 2 3B / 104 RBI / 95 R / 88 BB / 105 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS Notes: My love for Chris Davis during his 2007 season paid off, as his true breakout into elite territory came in 2008. Another blue chip hitter is climbing up the boards, but Justin Smoak certainly didn’t come out of nowhere. How this guy fell as far as he did in the 2008 draft is anyone’s guess. He reminds me a lot of Mark Teixeira, but I’m still waiting on bigger signs of Smoak’s power potential. If his power upticks (he has the potential) his stock will skyrocket even further. The thing that really blows me away with Smoak is his patience and approach at the plate. He will be a good all-around major league hitter. 12. Jarrod Parker / SP / Arizona / Double-A / 11/24/88 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -1 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: He was too good for High-A ball, so his promotion to Double-A Mobile was warranted. Everyone will now be able to get a real sense for how good this kid really is, and he could be great. His first Double-A outing was subpar. Will he show up next time out? I don’t know, but I can’t wait. The kid has ace potential. 13. Buster Posey / C / San Francisco / A+ / 3/27/87 / ETA: 2011 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: I want to see Posey promoted. Right now. I believe he will have no problem adjusting, but I have to know for sure. He projects to be an plus hitter, especially when comparing him to other catchers. I like to compare him to current Giants catcher Bengie Molina. Ultimately it may be Molina who is responsible for keeping Posey in the minor leagues. 14. Jason Heyward / OF / Atlanta / A+ / 8/9/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +2 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: Five tool prospect with the stats to back it up. If he brings his current production up to the Double-A level he will shoot up my list, but, like everyone below the Double-A level, I have to temper my expectations. Very good prospect, though. He has that “perennial all-star” feel about him. 15. Lars Anderson / 1B / Boston / Double-A / 9/25/87 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -3 Average Year Projection: .274 / .358 / 22 HR / 37 2B / 1 3B / 91 RBI / 78 R / 74 BB / 135 SO / 2 SB / 2 CS Prime Year Projection: .287 / .380 / 28 HR / 39 2B / 2 3B / 103 RBI / 87 R / 80 BB / 121 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS Notes: I can’t go overboard with Anderson yet because his power just has not shown up yet. He is very projectable, which is why I like him. He has a big frame and a good swing. Right now, I liken him to Adam LaRoche at the dish. In other words, an above average player. He has the ability to be a great player, though, and he certainly has the ability to be better than LaRoche. I’m expecting a June call up in 2010, if everything goes well. 16. Dexter Fowler / OF / Colorado / MLB / 3/22/86 / Movement: -1 2009 Thoughts: He is a solid No. 3 outfielder, providing good stolen base and runs production. Average Year Projection: .284 / .358 / 11 HR / 39 2B / 7 3B / 63 RBI / 99 R / 70 BB / 106 SO / 27 SB / 9 CS Prime Year Projection: .292 / .376 / 14 HR / 41 2B / 9 3B / 74 RBI / 109 R / 80 BB / 99 SO / 34 SB / 9 CS Notes: He is a good lead-off prospect for a Colorado team that needs one. An exciting player. I am not a believer in his home run power, but the thin air of Coors Field will aid him. If you can live without the home run and RBI production, Fowler looks like a strong No. 2 outfielder. 17. Angel Villalona / 1B / San Francisco / A+ / 8/13/90 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +4 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: The Frank Thomas of the California League. At just 18 years old Villalona has everything you look for in a power hitting prospect. He sports a sweet, level, powerful swing. I’m not sure that he’s in love with the game of baseball, though. I would love to see more commitment out of him. It’s the only thing holding him back. 18. Rick Porcello / SP / Detroit / MLB / 12/27/88 / Movement: -1 Average Year Projection: 191 IP / 3.83 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 13 W / 10 L / 161 SO / 180 H / 66 BB Prime Year Projection: 204 IP / 3.22 ERA / 1.19 WHIP / 16 W / 8 L / 202 SO / 188 H / 55 BB Notes: I like his groundball rate, and having a good defense behind him will do wonders. There are concerns about his strikeout ability and makeup. I’m a cautious believer, as the concerns are legit and have knocked him down a bit on my list. As he grows I expect his rangy repertoire of pitches to garner him strong strikeout numbers. But if he falls flat on his face in his first couple of years in the big leagues, I don't know if he will recover. Detroit rushed him, and I’m concerned. Be a cautious investor when it comes to Porcello. 19. Jordan Zimmermann / SP / Washington / MLB / 5/23/86 Average Year Projection: 199 IP / 3.77 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 175 SO / 189 H / 70 BB Prime Year Projection: 210 IP / 3.16 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 15 W / 10 L / 217 SO / 194 H / 66 BB Notes: I love Zimmerman’s poise and makeup. His fastball has really come on since he was drafted in 2007, as he now sits comfortably in the mid-90s. He could surprise everyone, including me, and blow past my projected numbers. He has a bulldog mentality that any team would love at the top of their rotation. Ultimately, playing for Washington could hurt his numbers; although it is hard predict how good the team will be in five years. His first two major league starts came against Atlanta and the New York Mets, and he looked very impressive in both outings. 20. Carlos Triunfel / SS / Seattle / Double-A / 2/27/90 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: I caught some criticism for aggressively putting an “injured shortstop that won’t stay at shortstop” very high up on my list. But that’s how much I love this kid. I wanted to give him his due. I’m sure he will slide down this list as the year progresses, but I am very high on this kid’s ability to be an elite fantasy shortstop in the major leagues. That’s right, I do think he will stay at shortstop. He won’t be anything more than average defensively at the position, but that’s of little concern to us. All we care about is his bat and his speed, and he lots of both. 21. Michael Stanton / OF / Florida / A+ / 11/8/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -1 22. Logan Morrison / 1B / Florida / Double-A / 8/25/87 / ETA: 2010 23. Gordon Beckham / SS / Chicago White Sox / Double-A / 9/16/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: +2 24. Neftali Feliz / SP/RP / Texas / Triple-A / 5/2/88 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -1 25. Kyle Blanks / 1B / San Diego / Triple-A / 9/11/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -1 26. Colby Rasmus / OF / St. Louis / MLB / 8/11/86 27. Derek Holland / SP / Texas / MLB / 10/9/86 28. Pedro Alvarez / 3B / Pittsburgh / A+ / 2/6/87 / ETA: 2010 29. Brett Anderson / SP / Oakland / MLB / 2/1/88 30. Hector Rondon / SP / Cleveland / Double-A / 2/26/88 / ETA: 2011 31. Brett Lawrie / 2B/3B/OF / Milwaukee / A / 1/18/90 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +7 32. Carlos Santana / C / Cleveland / Double-A / 4/8/86 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +7 33. Andrew Lambo / OF / LA Dodgers / Double-A / 8/11/88 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -1 34. Jeremy Hellickson / SP / Tampa Bay / Double-A / 4/8/87 / ETA: 2011 35. Jhoulys Chacin / SP / Colorado / Double-A / 1/7/88 / ETA: 2011 36. Cameron Maybin / OF / Florida / MLB / 4/4/87 / Movement: -5 37. Trevor Cahill / SP / Oakland / MLB / 3/1/88 / Movement: -4 38. Tim Alderson / SP / San Francisco / A+ / 11/3/88 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -1 39. Brian Matusz / SP / Baltimore / A+ / 2/11/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2 40. Michael Bowden / SP / Boston / Triple-A / 9/9/86 / ETA: 2010 41. Austin Jackson / OF / NY Yankees / Triple-A / 2/1/87 / ETA: 2010 42. Brett Wallace / 3B / St. Louis / Double-A / 8/26/86 / ETA: 2010 43. Tyler Flowers / C / Chicago White Sox / Double-A / 1/24/86 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +5 44. Elvis Andrus / SS / Texas / MLB / 8/26/88 / Movement: -1 45. Aaron Hicks / OF / Minnesota / EST / 10/2/89 / ETA: 2012 46. Daryl Jones / OF / St. Louis / Double-A / 6/25/87 / ETA: 2011 47. Jake Arrieta / SP / Baltimore / Double-A / 3/6/86 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -3 48. Aaron Cunningham / OF / Oakland / Triple-A / 4/24/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -1 49. Michael Saunders / OF / Seattle / Triple-A / 11/19/86 / ETA: 2010 50. Fernando Martinez / OF / NY Mets / Triple-A / 10/10/88 / ETA: 2010 51. Ethan Martin / SP / LA Dodgers / A / 6/6/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +4 52. Desmond Jennings / OF / Tampa Bay / Double-A / 10/30/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: +6 53. Michael Inoa / SP / Oakland / EST / 9/24/91 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: -2 54. Christian Friedrich / SP / Colorado / A / 7/8/87 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: +6 55. Eric Hosmer / 1B / Kansas City / A / 10/24/89 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: -3 56. Jordan Schafer / OF / Atlanta / MLB / 9/4/86 / Movement: -3 57. Martin Perez / SP / Texas / A / 4/4/91 / ETA: 2013 / Movement: -1 58. Gerardo Parra / OF / Arizona / Double-A / 5/6/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +4 59. Brandon Erbe / SP / Baltimore / Double-A / 12/25/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -5 60. Andrew McCutchen / OF / Pittsburgh / Triple-A / 10/10/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -3 61. Freddie Freeman / 1B / Atlanta / A+ / 9/12/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2 62. Jordan Walden / SP / LA Angels / Double-A / 11/16/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +2 63. Jeremy Jeffress / SP / Milwaukee / Double-A / 9/21/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2 64. Wilfredo Boscan / SP / Texas / A / 10/26/89 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: -1 65. Alcides Escobar / SS / Milwaukee / Triple-A / 12/16/86 / ETA: 2010 66. Jairo Heredia / SP / NY Yankees / EST / 10/8/89 / ETA: 2011 67. Caleb Gindl / OF / Milwaukee / A+ / 8/31/88 / ETA: 2011 68. Carlos Carrasco / SP / Philadelphia / Triple-A / 3/21/87 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: +4 69. Wade Davis / SP / Tampa Bay / Triple-A / 9/7/85 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -1 70. Daniel Bard / RP / Boston / Triple-A / 6/25/85 / ETA: 2010 71. Casey Kelly / SP / Boston / A / 10/4/89 / ETA: 2013 / Movement: +3 72. Lance Lynn / SP / St. Louis / Double-A / 5/12/87 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: +11 73. Wilmer Flores / SS / NY Mets / A / 8/6/91 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: -4 74. Max Ramirez / C / Texas / Triple-A / 10/11/84 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -3 75. Nolan Reimold / OF / Baltimore / Triple-A / 10/12/83 / ETA: 2009 76. Jose Tabata / OF / Pittsburgh / Double-A / 8/12/88 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2 77. Ben Revere / OF / Minnesota / A+ / 5/3/88 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -1 78. Jason Knapp / SP / Philadelphia / A / 8/31/90 / ETA: 2013 / Movement: -1 79. Zeke Spruill / SP / Atlanta / A / 9/11/89 / ETA: 2013 / Movement: -1 80. Trevor Reckling / SP / LA Angels / Double-A / 5/22/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +7 81. Yonder Alonso / 1B / Cincinnati / A+ / 4/8/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +7 82. Michael Pineda / SP / Seattle / A+ / 1/18/89 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: -3 83. Matt Dominguez / 3B / Florida / A+ / 8/28/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -3 84. James McDonald / SP / LA Dodgers / MLB / 10/19/84 / Movement: -3 85. Kris Medlen / SP/RP / Atlanta / Triple-A / 10/7/85 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: +7 86. Adrian Cardenas / 2B/SS / Oakland / Triple-A / 10/10/87 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -4 87. Bud Norris / SP / Houston / Triple-A / 3/2/85 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -3 88. Brandon Crawford / SS / San Francisco / A+ / 1/21/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +3 89. Dominic Brown / OF / Philadelphia / A+ / 9/3/87 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: +5 90. Tim Beckham / SS / Tampa Bay / A / 1/27/90 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: +10 91. David Hernandez / SP / Baltimore / Triple-A / 5/13/85 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -1 92. Josh Vitters / 3B / Chicago Cubs / A / 8/27/89 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: +4 93. Dayan Viciedo / 3B/OF / Chicago White Sox / Double-A / 3/10/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -8 94. Aaron Poreda / SP / Chicago White Sox / Double-A / 10/1/86 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -5 95. Jason Castro / C / Houston / A+ / 6/18/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -9 96. Phillippe Aumont / RP / Seattle / A+ / 1/7/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -3 97. Gio Gonzalez / SP / Oakland / Triple-A / 9/19/85 / ETA: 2009 / Movement: -2 98. Josh Lindblom / SP / LA Dodgers / Double-A / 6/15/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +1 99. Sean West / SP / Florida / Double-A / 6/15/86 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2 100. Vance Worley / SP / Philadelphia / Double-A / 9/25/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: New Other players that I'm watching closely: J.P. Arencibia / C / Toronto / Triple-A / 1/5/86 / ETA: 2011 Gorkys Hernandez Kyle Skipworth Dellin Betances Todd Frazier Jonathon Niese Lou Marson Trevor Harden Cody Johnson Daniel Duffy John Jaso D.J. Mitchell Reese Havens Wilson Ramos Ross Seaton Mike Carp Dexter Carter Brad Holt Mauricio Robles Matt Maloney Brandon Snyder Brett Cecil Yohermyn Chavez Chris Carter Kevin Mulvey Jason Donald David Huff Michael Taylor Reid Brignac Brett Lorin Josh Reddick Kelvin De La Cruz Peter Bourjos Chris Coghlan Posted by Matt Hagen at 10:25pm (2) Comments Friday, May 08, 2009Roster Doctor - 5/8/09Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column. A standard roster for today... Player Pool: Mixed No. of Teams: 12 Categories: Traditional 5x5 Scoring Type: Rotisserie Roster: C - John Buck 1B - Adrian Gonzalez 2B - Kelly Johnson 3B - Mike Lowell SS - Hanley Ramirez OF - Carlos Quentin OF - Jay Bruce OF - Andre Ethier Util - Garrett Atkins BN - Kosuke Fukudome BN - Milton Bradley DL - Brian McCann SP - Matt Garza SP - Clayton Kershaw SP - Derek Lowe SP - Jon Lester SP - Ricky Nolasco RP - Matt Capps RP - Mike González RP - Kevin Gregg RP - Todd Coffey RP - LaTroy Hawkins Right off the bat (literally) I noticed your strong hitting. You've got some boppers in Gonzalez, Quentin, and Bruce and some nice average guys in Hanley, Ethier, and Lowell to complement them. When McCann comes off the DL in the very near future, your lineup will only look more intimidating and hopefully his numbers follow the reputation. Hanley is your only real source of steals, so you could use some help there in a trade. I would look to trade either Lowell or Atkins—Lowell especially because he might look enticing to some owners because of his hot start—and in return receive a speedy character. Your options are pretty much wide open as to who you get in return since he will be filling your utility position. In the meantime I would drop Bradley for a speed guy like Emmanuel Burriss; he should pick up his production going forward and should offer some stolen bases. Burriss also makes for a nice backup to Hanley and Kelly with his second base and shortstop eligibility. (Another player I would consider adding is Juan Pierre in light of the Manny news.) Speaking of Kelly Johnson, he and Atkins are the two hitters struggling for your team right now. Johnson is simply the victim of bad luck as I mentioned in my last article, due mostly to a .222 BABIP. He should pick up the slack and put up similar numbers to the solid ones of past seasons. Atkins is someone I am less fond of, although I do believe he will start playing better than he has so far this season. My expectations are about a .275-.280 average with about 15 home runs and a high-80s to low-90s RBI total. For now, I think you are stuck with that production unfortunately, but if he gets hot in the future, I would to include him as a piece in a trade, especially because there is a good chance he spends the second half of the season away from Coors. Moving over to your pitching, it lacks an ace but does appear to have good depth. Garza, Kershaw, and Lowe are all solid pitchers who have performed well for you so far and should continue to do so. Lester and Nolasco have not done as well, Nolasco especially, but nevertheless I like both of them going forward. A simple check of their peripherals shows they are still striking out plenty of batters (Lester is currently striking out over a batter an innning!) and walking relatively few. They are both the victims of poor BABIP luck with inflated .363 and .381 BABIPs. I'll take a rotation of five solid starters over a staff consisting of an ace or two and three inconsistent starters, particularly in rotisserie a league. You probably did not make a large investment in closers during your draft—Capps is your sole brand-name closer—but regardless you have managed to assemble a mass of relievers in position to get saves. Capps, Gonzalez, Gregg (barely), and Hawkins (for the next two to three weeks) will be doing closing duties for their teams. Coffey—the lone man out—is now droppable with the return of Travor Hoffman and I would take a stab at a potential closer like Jim Johnson, Tony Sipp, or Andrew Bailey to take his place. Overall I feel your hitting is solid but needs to be improved by a smart addition or one of the trades I mentioned to become championship caliber. Your mix of starters is great—no need to alter that—and as long as you stay active on the waiver wire for closers as you already have, your pitchers will continue to impress. Good luck! Posted by Paul Singman at 12:33am (1) Comments Waiver WireAmerican League by Rob McQuown David Aardsma | Seattle | RP YTD: 8.0 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 4.40 ERA True Talent: 8.2 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 4.20 ERA Next Week Forecast: 0.3 saves, 4.45 ERA In the grand tradition of Don “Full Pack” Stanhouse and Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams, David Aardsma will need a nickname if he keeps closing. “BB-rdsma” doesn't quite cut it, but at least it's truth-in-advertising, as Aardsma has walked 98 men in 157 career innings. With Morrow returning this weekend, the window for Aardsma closing appears to be closing, in spite of Shawn Kelley's injury. However, Morrow's diabetes and injury concerns could easily net Aardsma another 5-10 saves this season. OK if you can stand the hit to your WHIP. Rod Barajas | Toronto | C YTD: .333/.370/.512 True Talent: .255/.309/.416 Next Week Forecast: 0.6 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .254, 0.0 SB Barajas' season is a BABIP fluke—it's more than 100 points over his career mark, and that's despite his turning 34 in September. Barajas is a great example of the value of knowing the True Talent of a player. Sure, getting anything out of a catcher is useful, but if you have this guy in a league, it's time to trade him to someone who believes in “hot streaks” and “momentum.” Dallas Braden | Oakland | SP YTD: 6.0 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 2.50 ERA True Talent: 6.2 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 4.06 ERA Next Week Forecast: 6.1 IP, 0.4 wins, 4 K, 4.06 ERA Braden's ERA is artificially low due to his 3.6% HR/FB. However, he has the supporting stuff that may help him to out-pitch his xERA. For one thing, his flyball ways (36.9% career GB%) won't hurt him so much since the A's have a big ballpark and good defenders, especially in the outfield. For another thing, he puts the clamps on the running game (just three SB allowed in 180 career innings), which helps to keep the double plays in order. Melky Cabrera | New York | OF YTD: .328/.400/.537 True Talent: .279/.341/.403 Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .279, 0.6 SB Grab some bench, Brett! This past week's switch-hitting hero in New York is ... Melky! Melky's HR/FB is 36.4%, which is astonishing especially since he has put 56.1% of his hit balls on the ground. Not only are his balls “out of play” doing better than expected, but his BABIP is also high, at .340 (versus a career mark of .297). Don't expect him to surpass his True Talent by much. Alberto Callaspo | Kansas City | 2B YTD: .359/.417/.565 True Talent: .295/.354/.405 Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, .296, 0.2 SB Callaspo has struck out just 5 times in 92 AB this year, and he has a .365 BABIP. Being a ground-ball hitter with a phenomenal 92% Ct% for his career, his hits come inside the park, not out of it, so his BA is heavily dependent on his BABIP... and that BABIP will come down. In fact, he could hit .300 the rest of the way and still not help a Roto team, as he doesn't homer or steal, and he could lose PT down the road due to his shaky defense. Brett Cecil | Toronto | SP YTD: 9.00 K/9, 0 BB, 1.50 ERA True Talent: 7.8 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 4.01 ERA Next Week Forecast: n/a Young pitchers are inherently risky for present-season performance. But Toronto has been fantastic about developing and nurturing pitching talent of all ages in recent years, and an investment in Cecil is, in many ways, an investment in his teammates: Cito Gaston has turned around the Jays' offense (up from 4.00 R/G in 2007 to 4.75 R/G last year, and 6.30 R/G so far this year), and the defense remains splendid. Combine those with a bullpen that's very likely to leave runners stranded, and Cecil is a great long-term pick and a good 2009 pick-up. Brendan Harris | Minnesota | SS/2B/3B YTD: .308/.339/.404 True Talent: .273/.332/.406 Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .270, 0.1 SB The word from Ron Gardenhire is that Tolbert and Harris will platoon, now that Alexi Casilla is gone. But, see, Tolbert can't hit (though he might steal a base for you in an AL-only league). And Crede's back acts up frequently. And Punto is Punto. You get the idea... So Brendan Harris should get a lot of playing time. Full-time in 2007, he hit .286 with 12 HR. Nothing special here, but useful. Kendry Morales | Los Angeles | 1B/OF YTD: .266/.310/.500 True Talent: .272/.317/.437 Next Week Forecast: 0.9 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, .274, 0.1 SB We've seen over the years that it's hard for hitters to translate success in the Angels' minor-league parks into major-league success. Exhibit K: Kendry Morales, who has hit over .330 the past three years combined in Triple-A and slugged over .500. Still, we look for a little more slugging this season than his True Talent indicates, as nothing seems fluky about his current stats. Expect his decent run production to continue, as Vlad's return should improve the team's scoring overall. National League by Michael Street Doug Davis | Arizona | SP YTD: 6.8 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.52 ERA True Talent: 6.7 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 4.49 ERA Next Week’s Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 wins, 4 K, 4.54 ERA Davis has tossed two shut-outs layered between two starts in which he gave up nine ER in 10.1 IP. That’s typical of Davis, an unspectacular inning-muncher. His walk rate may be improving; then again, he has allowed three or more walks in half his starts. As his True Talent shows, Davis is fairly marginal, except for slightly above-average strikeout numbers. If you need those K's, be prepared to occasionally get shelled. Barry Zito | San Francisco | SP YTD: 5.8 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 3.99 ERA True Talent: 6.2 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 4.74 ERA Next Week’s Forecast: 5.2 IP, 0.3 wins, 4 K, 4.78 ERA San Francisco’s big contract bust has been good lately, surrendering just three ER over his last three starts (two of them shutouts) and putting up an 11:4 K/BB ratio. Since Zito is no longer striking out guys, those walks are key. His K/BB ratio so far is his best in four years, but that's only 1.9 K/BB, and True Talent can't help but see a correction coming. Zito looks better than he has in a while, but even granting him all the benefit of the doubt, that still makes him only a bit above average. LaTroy Hawkins | Houston | RP YTD: 8.5 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 2.84 ERA True Talent: 6.4 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.78 ERA Next Week’s Forecast: 1.0 Saves, 4.02 ERA Hawkins has filled in for Jose Valverde with some of his best numbers in years. Typically, Hawk has been good everywhere in relief EXCEPT at the end of the game, wilting when pressed into the closer position—in 249 career save situations, he has closed the door only 79 times. We think that Hawk will hold his own until Valverde returns in mid-May, but the risk of regression is very real, so listen to offers if you own him. Carlos Marmol | Chicago | RP YTD: 9.7 K/9, 1.2 K/BB, 4.85 ERA True Talent: 10.5 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 3.69 ERA Next Week’s Forecast: 0.4 Saves, 3.40 ERA Everyone expected Marmol to take over for Kevin Gregg, but Marmol has faltered this year when called upon to close, whereas Gregg has nailed down four straight saves. Marmol’s control this season has clearly slipped, with uncharacteristic 19.7 BB% and 23.0 K%. But True Talent looks for Marmol to take the lead (Gregg has a True ERA of only 4.26), and as long as Lou Piniella is willing to swap roles when Marmol passes Gregg, you’ll want Marmol stashed away while he's cheap. Pedro Feliz | Philadelphia | 3B YTD: .314/.371/.442 True Talent: .265/.314/.428 Next Week’s Forecast: 0.9 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, .268, 0.0 SB After coming to Philly last season, Feliz’s BB% shot up from 4.9% to 7.1%, and his K% continued dropping to 11.7% from its 21.3% 2003 peak. This year, those trends are continuing, as he has a 9.3 BB% and 10.3 K%. But his 2009 success stems even moreso from a .329 BABIP, well above his career .267 average. True Talent also tells you that he’s coming down to earth; note that he’s hitting .261/.292/.304 over his past six games. Khalil Greene | St. Louis | SS YTD: .217/.317/.348 True Talent: .243/.305/.411 Next Week’s Forecast: 0.7 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .244, 0.2 SB Greene’s Spring Training line of .406/.434/.536 got a lot of fantasy owners excited. And then he started the season batting .246/.358/.386, a performance more in line with his True Talent. A strained forearm on April 27 took him off the diamond (and many fantasy rosters). But an improved batting eye (0.9 BB/K) means that he could improve on that BA and OBP prediction, and possibly also boost his power numbers. Keep your expectations low, but there is upside here. Emilio Bonifacio | Florida | 3B YTD: .250/.297/.308 True Talent: .259/.310/.342 Next Week’s Forecast: 0.1 HR, 3 R, 1 RBI, .254, 0.9 SB Bonifacio started 2009 on Opening Day with an inside-the-park homer and three SB, and he had multi-hit games in six of his first seven games. Fantasy owners snatched him up—and when he hit .161/.223/.172 with two SB since then, owners dropped him just as quickly. The steals are tempting, but he doesn’t have the power for a corner spot, and until he develops patience (0.3 BB/K), he’s liable to kill your BA. Don’t look for a rebound anytime soon. Jeremy Hermida | Florida | OF YTD: .250/.395/.402 True Talent: .264/.357/.437 Next Week’s Forecast: 0.8 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .259, 0.3 SB The perennial prospect has suffered from injuries (40-plus games in ’06 and ’07) and impatience (0.35 BB/K in 2008). This year, he has been healthy, and an impressive 0.8 BB/K ratio has led to that gaudy OBP. However, since a 2-HR, 5-RBI performance on April 18, he has hit only .204/.368/.241, and so he’s back on the waiver wire. Pick him up if you have room—he’s going to get better, and he could even beat that True Talent projection if that batting eye holds. True Talent and Next Week Forecast are taken from Heater Magazine. Posted by THT Staff at 12:55am (0) Comments Hit Rate ObserverAll this talk of the swine flu got me thinking: Every successful strategy is a mutant. The strategy invades a pool of creatures who are blind to its advantages, and it exploits some central feature of the creatures’ day-to-day operation. This continues until the creatures recognize that the strategy is a winner and unleash defenses (usually in the form of mimicry), at which point the strategy has no edge to exploit and becomes harmless. Suppose that we wanted to introduced a mutant to fantasy baseball. To be most effective, we want to attack the bias that has the widest spread—something that every league, and nearly every player, is vulnerable to. Does such an opportunity exist? Yes. The most dominant strategy in fantasy today is the LIMA Plan. Devised by The Master, Ron Shandler, the LIMA Plan provides guidance on how to build one’s roster. To be precise, “LIMA” is both a plan (on how to allocate dollars) and a filter (on how to identify pitchers who are worth a bid—i.e., who are “LIMA-caliber”). In this piece, we’ll be focusing on the filter, which is generally expressed as 6.0 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, and 1.0 HR/9. To a good approximation, the LIMA Plan has universal exposure. Every fantasy player worth his or her salt has antibodies against LIMA—you can’t name a pitcher with good base rates and expect him to slide past your leaguemates. This reflex among fantasy GM’s is nearly instinctive— —Which is good; laziness is what we wish to attack. Rule LIMA, and you’ll rule the world. But is there a mutant that can beat LIMA? That’s unclear. If there is, though, the secret may be staring us in the face: LIMA Technically, “LIMA” stands for “Low-Investment Mound Aces.” However, the name was chosen in a contest because it evoked Jose Lima, the multiple Cy Young winner and first-ballot Hall-of-Famer whose finesse in the diplomatic arena brought lasting peace to— Oh, you mean the Jose Lima from this reality. The one with a career 5.26 ERA in 1,567 innings. In his 11 seasons of consequential work, Lima had an ERA under 4.00 only twice. Yes, he posted a 3.70 ERA in 33 starts for Houston in 1998, and then a 3.58 ERA in 35 starts the following year; excellent seasons, no doubt. Remove those years, though, and Lima has an ERA of 5.98 and a record of 52-84. It’s true that Lima’s skills went downhill after 1999, but even in his three seasons before 1998, he had ERAs of 5.28, 5.70, and 6.11. In other words, Jose Lima is not a pitcher whom you wanted to own more than twice in 13 years. And yet, our premier pitching plan is named after him. What a country! This mismatch elicits a suspicion: How did Jose Lima come to be enshrined? Perhaps there is a flaw here. For his career, Jose Lima had base rates of 5.6 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, and 1.5 HR/9. From 1994-1999 (when he acquired his allure), his rates were 6.6 K/9, 3.9 K/BB, and 1.2 HR/9. Now, technically, Lima’s HR rate keeps him from passing his own filter. In fact, in his pre-collapse period, he achieved a homer rate below 1.1 HR/9 only twice—he had a 1.08 HR/9 in 1997, and a 1.096 HR/9 in 1999. So that we may include the man himself, we’ll expand the definition of LIMA here to parameters of 6.0 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, and 1.1 HR/9. We looked at all pitchers since the year 2000 who have had at least one LIMA-caliber season of at least 100 IP. There were 131 such pitchers. We then asked, How many LIMA-caliber seasons did these pitchers have for their careers (possibly extending before the year 2000)? Here are the results, grouped by the number of LIMA-caliber seasons:  Fifty of our 131 pitchers (38%) exhibited LIMA-caliber skills for one season only. (Scanning just the As, the list comprises Terry Adams, Jeremy Affeldt, Wilson Alvarez, Rick Ankiel, and Bronson Arroyo. Dare we tally the draft dollars spent chasing this fivesome?) Only 40% of our pitchers have passed the LIMA filter for three or more seasons. That’s a mere 52 pitchers, spread across nine seasons! Granted, some of the pitchers are still pitching today, and some of those can be expected to lift their LIMA counts. Still, it’s fair to say that fantasy fortunes rose and fell on whether you got in early on these 52 names. (Only one pitcher has a 100% rate of LIMA seasons in a career of four or more seasons. Hint: He pitches for Houston. And he has some work to do to run the streak to nine seasons.) How about this: After these 131 pitchers put up their first LIMA-caliber season, what fraction of subsequent seasons were LIMA-caliber (and in at least 100 IP)? A: So far, these pitchers have produced 481 subsequent seasons (of any length). Of those seasons, only 35% were LIMA-caliber in 100 IP. Nineteen pitchers were responsible for half of those seasons; collectively, they had a repeat rate of 73%. If you banked on one of the other 112 pitchers, though, your hit rate was just 23%. If this be skill, I want nothing of it. A replay of LIMA skills is 1-in-3 overall, and 1-in-4 for the unestablished? Why bother? Admittedly, we’re using LIMA eligibility as a proxy for good results. But a homer rate over 1.1 HR/9, or a strikeout-to-walk rate below 2.0 K/BB, virtually ensures a troubled season. These findings suggest that the LIMA Plan is vulnerable to a mutant. Far from possessing repeatable skills, most of these pitchers were merely in the right place at the right time—much like Jose Lima, when the LIMA Plan was looking for a name. That may be the real lesson of the LIMA Plan. Still, the longevity of the LIMA Plan should count for something. And we haven’t done the hard work of showing that a superior strain exists. We have a notion that an answer may lie with the low-K, high-command pitchers whom we identified last week. But we welcome your suggestions. Posted by John Burnson at 2:12am (9) Comments Monday, May 11, 2009Confessions of a fantasy baseball addict: Panic timeAs most hitters have accumulated over 100 plate appearances, many fantasy leaguers are beginning to see their players’ good and/or bad starts to the 2009 season as indicative of the 2009 full season performances. This is normally the point where all the patience exercised in the first 20 percent of the season will be spent, and it is the worst time to panic, no matter how bad Jhonny Peralta, David Ortiz, Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins or Kevin Kouzmanoff look right now. Of course, if you play in a mixed league, there is a lot less to worry about as you are likely (should be) sitting most of these players. Or have the option to do so thanks to a relatively deep pool of full-time players. Boo hoo, you have to start Christian Guzman until Jimmy Rollins begins to heat-up. In AL- and NL-only leagues, want to sit Peralta? Assuming you even have the option to reserve an active player, who you sending in? Ronny Cedeno? Luis Hernandez? Good luck with that! This is why the option to sit any struggling player is close to nil, and the temptation to sell low is nearly impossible to resist. Once a single league fantasy player capitulates on a Peralta, an even more detrimental situation persists. No matter how frequently the fantasy baseball punditry says you should “buy low,” no one wants to do it. As a matter of fact, those same people who won’t buy low and also won’t “selling high”. Are you dealing Michael Young for Jhonny Peralta? Five weeks ago, you wouldn’t touch it thanks to the dearth of power amongst the American League shortstops. Now that Michael Young has hit eight home runs to Peralta’s one long ball, you’re terrified of acquiring Peralta despite his being younger and demonstrating 20 home run power more frequently over the past couple seasons than Young has. So what happens? The panicking owner of Jhonny Peralta is compelled to settle for a sell-high player like Endy Chavez because Endy is likely to play every day, hit around .300, steal 30-plus bases and hit a handful of home runs, because that is what the 31-year-old career defensive replacement has done on a pro-rated basis this season and Peralta has caused too much agita for too long already. Once the deal is consummated, it is quickly followed by Peralta hitting four homers in the next 10 games while Chavez justifies his career part-timer status with a 2-25 bender that ends in a couple days off from his manager “to clear his head.” How can you avoid committing this too common mistake in an AL- or NL-only league? Look at the team willing to deal Endy Chavez (or any player who's been hot for 100 at-bats) and ask yourself, "If Peralta had four home runs right now, who would I accept for him in a trade?" If the team doesn’t have enough to make you consider an offer, then hold Peralta and wait for the player the other team offered to cool. By then, you will have likely seen a flip in the standings. Selling low in an AL/NL-only league means death especially if the player you acquired was sold high to you in the deal as you have locked in one players worst spell of the season while missing out on the other's best. Last Week Follow-up: I argued last week that mixed leaguers shouldn't be rushing out and picking-up the hot prospect. While this is general advice, the Cleveland Indians' recalled one of the top power prospects in the minor leagues in OF Matt LaPorta. He certainly fits the bill and went 2-for-13 with a home run. Double follow-up: Two weeks ago, I identified RHP Jamey Wright as a speculative pick in AL-only leagues for saves . On Saturday, Royals manager Trey Hillman said Juan Cruz and Wright would lead a committee of closers while Joakim Soria deals with his recurrence of shoulder discomfort. Posted by Eric Hinz at 1:59am (9) Comments Tuesday, May 12, 2009The great strikeout debateToward the end of last season at the beginning of September, I wrote an article (at my former site) advocating the use of strikeout percentage (K%) over the more commonly used strikeout per nine innings (K/9). Derek and I continued to have a good discussion on the topic following the article, which kept me thinking about the issue. Is K% an improvement to K/9? Is there another stat, not yet created, that would better show a pitcher's ability to get strikeouts? I did not reach a definite answer to these questions, but after playing devil's advocate in my mind a few times (as I will in this article by the way) I feel I have at least made progress on the answer, which lies in understanding K% and K/9, and their similarities, differences, and flaws. The biggest difference between K% and K/9 is their baseline. K% is strikeout per batter faced while K/9 is strikeout per inning, which is essentially per out. A baseline of per out is good because every inning, a pitcher must get three outs. How many hits or walks he allows in that time serves only to inflate the number of batters he faces. He must, however, face three batters that get out. Must. K/9 isolates this, ignoring hits and walks, and shows us how many batters he gets out via strikeouts, holding everything else constant (more or less). A baseline of per batter faced can also be argued as good because it shows, quite clearly, how often a pitcher can strike a batter out and how often he cannot. It does not matter what the non-strikeout outcome was—be it walk, hit, or ball in play out—if the pitcher could not strike the batter out, they are not as good as someone who could. Proponents of K/9 could argue that including walks in the K/9 equation is detrimental because control is a different skill that should not be taken into account when trying to determine a pitcher's strikeout ability. Proponents of K% could counter that walks should be included because they represent a batter that the pitcher could not strike out. Both stats do have a major flaw, most notably their dependency on BABIP. Consider the following two innings of work: Pitcher A Ground out Ground out Strikeout Pitcher B Ground out Ground ball (hit) Walk Strikeout Fly out Here Pitcher A would have a K/9 of 9.00, as would Pitcher B. Pitcher A's K%, however, is 33.33 percent while Pitcher B's is 20 percent. This certainly leads one to believe that K% wrongly takes into account ball in play outcomes and K/9 is better because it does not. This argument can be flipped onto itself to prove K/9's dependency on BABIP too, though. Notice how in Pitcher B's inning of work, one ground ball went for an out and another went for a hit. Oddly, even though both are ground balls, the outcome of the ground ball—hit or out—determines whether that batter affect's the pitchers K/9 rate. When the ground ball goes for a hit, the K/9 remains unchanged. But when the ground ball is converted into an out, the K/9 rate will go down because an out was made that was not a strikeout. That does not seem right. Taking a step back, it seems we have done a good job of pointing out the strengths of weaknesses of both stats. With the flaws both have, I think it is possible to create a new, better stat. To do this, I will take what consider the best of both K/9 and K%. The per out baseline of K/9 is too illogical, only counting balls in play when they go for outs, and therefore I like the batters faced baseline of K% better. I do like the way K/9 ignores walks, which should be kept separate from the ability to strike batters out. From these two preferences arise the new stat whose equation is K/(K + BIP) and I will call it True K for now, or TK. Do I think TrueK is perfect? No. But I do believe it is better at showing who the best strikeout pitchers are. Agree? Disagree? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below Posted by Paul Singman at 2:36am (10) Comments What’s fair value for Manny?The hopes of many fantasy teams this season took a deep blow when Major League Baseball suspended Manny Ramirez for 50 games late last week for testing positive for the female fertility drug hCG. Many owners of Manny may have contemplated filing a class action lawsuit against the guy. (Sorry, that probably won't work.) Maybe the second thought involved trade. But what's Manny worth these days? First, let's take a look at the real market. Here's a network diagram of recent one-for-one trades involving Manny in the aftermath of the latest PED suspension. Obviously, some owners have been able to get good players such as Tim Lincecum, Matt Holliday, and Dan Haren in return. The vast majority of trades, though, almost look like frustrated Manny dumps: Eric Stults? Nyjer Morgan? Brian Bannister??? What's really fair value for Manny? Coming into the season, according to our roundup of projections from respected organizations like Baseball Prospectus, BaseballHQ, ESPN, etc., Manny was expected to produce a line like 30 HR, 99 RBI, 86 runs, 2 steals, and a .299 AVG. Manny is eligible to return in early July. Nobody knows for sure how the mental stress of being publicly humiliated will sit with Manny upon his return, but given his history of being able to shrug off pressure, we might expect Manny's remaining production in 2009 to be roughly half of those counting stats. The question then becomes what player will produce 19 weeks of stats in equivalence to Manny's expected 12? We took consensus preseason projections for all major league players, translated these projections into a player rater similar to the one we covered in this column last week, and compared the resulting values to each other. So who are the players we can expect Manny to equal from now until the end of the season? According to our data, here's a few names of equivalent value: Milton Bradley, Jayson Werth, Jhonny Peralta, JJ Hardy, Conor Jackson, Robinson Cano. Of course, not all things are created equal. Anybody accepting Manny in a deal will have to sacrifice a roster position for 50 days since Manny isn't eligible to be put on the disabled list. Every roster spot has value and should certainly be a consideration in Manny's fantasy value. But here's another idea for everybody dying to get rid of Manny and anybody with a deep bench looking for some long-term upside by acquiring Manny. Before the season started, we talked about toxic assets, those things that haunt your portfolio but can't reasonably drop. How might you get rid of a toxic asset? One good idea is to exchange one toxic asset for another. Assets are toxic for different reasons, opening the possibility of trade. Certainly, there are fantasy teams out there who regret drafting Alexei Ramirez or the above-mentioned Milton Bradley. Perhaps these teams are so sick of these players they'll gladly accept the stability of having a guy like Manny, who they can sit on the bench with some assurance of getting at least some good value down the line. As for Manny, well, he's a toxic asset unto himself. Perhaps a Manny owner will agree to forfeit their high investment in a dud like Manny for the upside of having another highly drafted guy who thus far hasn't worked out, but who might soon turn the tide. Can we make a deal, everyone? Posted by Eriq Gardner at 5:32am (8) Comments Wednesday, May 13, 2009Daily fantasy baseball contest picks for Wednesday, May 13thI’m going to try something a little different this week, and discuss my daily contest strategy for Wednesday’s games in detail. I think that should give those who haven’t tried the games yet a better feel for what’s involved in them, and prove useful for those who are trying to plan their Wednesday contest lineups. If feedback is positive, this is something I could do on a regular basis. At each position, I’ll list the top five healthy players according to my ratings, along with their prices in Draftbug. Snapdraft’s scoring is VERY similar, so the same ratings should apply, although the pricing varies enough that you could end up with a very different lineup using the same ratings. In any case, the thought process for making selections would be the same regardless of what daily contest format you're playing. A few people have asked whether I’d be willing to share the "guts" of my ratings spreadsheet here. This is probably about as close as I’m willing to get right now. However, if people email me at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) I’m happy to discuss specific issues in statistical modeling for daily contests. For each position, I’ll list my ratings for the top five players, as well as any others that I seriously considered putting in my lineup for the day. Depending on the size of the contest and the buy-in, the salary cap varies between contests at Draftbug (unlike Snapdraft, which always uses the same salary cap), so I’m going to use a cap of 1500 points, which is more or less in the middle of the range. Keep in mind that the ratings listed are specifically for Wednesday’s games, based on factors such as park, opponents, platoon advantage, and home field advantage. Starting Pitchers: 1 Lee 13.8 279 2 Nolasco 13.1 209 3 Pettitte 12.3 100 4 Lilly 12.2 189 5 Outman 10.8 10 For pitchers, the points projection listed is for the game as a whole. In general, starting pitchers have the widest spread in projected points, so I often spend the salary on my top-rated pitcher. I can find other places to save salary that won’t have as much impact. This is an unusually weak day for starting pitchers, and Cliff Lee (at home) against Buehrle and the White Sox is my top-rated pitcher. He may actually be even better than my rating suggests, because good control pitchers aren’t currently given the favorable innings pitched projections they deserve in my statistical model. Despite the high price, and the unlucky start he had to his season, he’s a pretty easy choice for me. Relief pitchers: 1 Rivera 3.9 186 2 Wood 3.6 126 3 Papelbon 3.5 210 4 Broxton 3.5 138 5 Hanrahan 3.3 78 I’m going to go with Wood for my relief pitcher. An argument could also be made for Rivera (who has the highest rating) or Hanrahan (who is substantially cheaper). One thing to note here is that Broxton’s price will probably need revising (upwards) the next time prices are adjusted, which happens every few weeks. At his current price, he’s a pretty big bargain, since he’s often my top-rated reliever. He’s one of the few players who tends to get picked by a high percentage of players at his current price level. Catchers 1 Mauer .78 174 2 Soto .71 162 3 McCann .68 186 4 Iannetta .67 120 5 Martin .67 174 For hitters, my ratings are listed per at-bat. Ideally, my model would incorporate average batting order position, and the team's on-base percentage. For now, I'm simply assuming about five plate appearances per game for all players, and keeping in mind that players who bat higher in the order are likely to outperform those who don't. The two reasonable choices at catcher today look like Mauer and Iannetta. I’ll go with Mauer, but if I was in a contest with a cap lower than 1500, I’d probably save some of my salary room by using Iannetta. At catcher, there’s always a risk that your players will take a day off, so the real key is figuring out who isn’t going to skip the game and score no points at all. First Base 1 Pujols .93 324 2 Morneau .81 240 3 Hoffpauir .78 28 4 Helton .72 78 5 Pena .72 174 Today is a fairly typical day for first basemen, with Pujols rated the highest by a lot. However, his high price makes him an impractical choice on many days. Hoffpauir is treated very favorably by the ZIPS projections that I’m basing my daily calculations on. However, he’s the type of player (young and without much major league experience) where the various ratings systems tend to disagree, and where ZIPS may not be as good as some of the others. More importantly, he’s not usually in the starting lineup, so he’s not a good option unless you can check the lineup before your picks "lock" for the day. Helton, on the other hand, is often a great cheap value, as his strengths are a good fit for the points scoring system, and he benefits from playing in Colorado half of the time. Second Base 1 Kinsler .81 246 2 Pedroia .78 234 3 Utley .77 252 4 Roberts .72 210 5 Matsui .71 96 Many days, one of the top three second basemen has such an edge that it’s not worth looking for cheaper alternatives. That’s because they’re not only good, but each plays in an extremely favorable home park. However, today Kaz Matsui is a good, cheap alternative. He benefits from playing at Coors field against a bad pitcher (Jason Marquis). Marquis is a particularly good opponent for players with some speed, because he’s very easy to steal bases against. Third Base 1 Wright .81 306 2 Jones .80 210 3 Figgins .79 156 4 Atkins .76 168 5 Rodriguez .75 300 With a number of relatively evenly matched choices at third base today, Figgins looks like the best value. One caveat here is that I’m still using the park factors for Shea Stadium and the old Yankee Stadium. I know that the early results seem to indicate that Yankee Stadium is now a much better hitters’ park, but I’m going to wait until there’s a little larger sample size before I make the changes in my model. So I may be cheating Wright, and especially Rodriguez. Shortstop 1 Reyes .82 318 2 Ramirez .74 324 3 Theriot .73 126 4 Rollins .72 288 5 Tejada .71 144 M. Izturis .71 16 Theriot is a great value at shortstop today. He’s at home in a hitters park, which helps his rating. But the real kicker is that he’s up against Chris Young, who has been one of the very worst pitchers at preventing steals for years. This is one of the cases where using analysis of component statistics really helps. Instead of rating Young as a "good pitcher" across the board, the ratings reflect the fact that he’s a "good pitcher" against many hitters, but an "awful" one against good base stealers. I listed Izturis as an interesting bargain, but like Hoffpauir at first base, you should only use him if you'll be able to confirm that he’s in the lineup for the day. Outfield 1 Soriano .88 234 2 Lee .84 228 3 Crawford .80 222 4 Cruz .80 155 5 Beltran .79 234 Bradley .76 126 Hunter .75 150 Abreu .73 150 Spilborghs .71 36 With three outfield slots in the standard roster configuration, I find choosing outfielders to be more of an art than a science. Spilborghs is probably due for a price increase, as his low price reflects the lack of playing time he received last year. Cruz was one of the players adjusted upward in the last round of price changes, but he remains a good bargain when he’s home against weak pitchers. Bradley is also worth considering, as long as he’s not nursing a new injury or facing a suspension for anything. I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts either via email or in the comments section, both about the specific picks for today's games, and about whether this type of article is useful or interesting. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||