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 Wednesday, June 10, 2009What’s wrong with Jimmy Rollins?
As I noted on Buy on the Rumor last night, I filled in last minute on the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio Show. One of the questions posed was "What is wrong with Jimmy Rollins?," which spurred an interesting discussion when I mentioned Rollins's claim that he found a mechanical glitch in his swing over the weekend. I didn't get to articulate my point as well as I would have liked, or say as much about it as I would have liked, so I thought I'd talk a little more today. Mechanical adjustments and regression to the meanWhen I mentioned the mechanical adjustments Rollins claimed to have made, our good friend Mike Podhorzer immediately jumped in, wondering if it was just the typical BS we often hear from struggling players. He noted Rollins's "unlucky" .239 BABIP, saying that a number that low is bound to come back up. Analysts often call this "regression to the mean" or "regression to a player's true talent level," but I posed a different view of what this actually means. Sure, Rollins's BABIP is very low and is almost certain to rise, but the reason that it's so low to begin with may not be sheer bad luck. While we try to be as objective as possible and focus mostly on the numbers, we have to remember that we are dealing with human beings who are most certainly not focused only on the numbers. These are professional baseball players who have access to scores of video footage and are likely constantly evaluating themselves on a micro-level and making adjustments accordingly. What we call "regression to the mean" may not simply be a matter of luck and sample size, but is likely also caused, in part, by players making adjustments (at least for some players). After all, while Rollins's true talent may have been something like a .350 wOBA coming into the season, if his swing is different now, how can we expect him to perform to his previous "true talent level"? If it's a different swing, it's a different player, at least to some degree. Maybe Rollins's BABIP was low because there was a problem with his swing, but because he's a professional baseball player he was bound to fix it, causing the BABIP to rise to it's normal level. This, in turn, would cause analysts to classify Rollins's initially poor BABIP as "bad luck" in hindsight, but perhaps there was actually more to it than that. The specific case of Rollins -- BABIPNow, of course, the possibility also exists that this was just BS coming from a struggling and/or unlucky player. So let's examine Rollins's claim and see if the numbers back it up. Scrutinizing footage of recent games, Rollins discovered a mechanical issue occurring at the moment his bat made contact with the ball: His swing was flat, meaning that his bat dropped less than an inch at contact, causing him to get under the ball and lift it in the air. So, is Rollins hitting more pop-ups and fewer line drives? You bet: +------+---------+--------+-----+--------+ | YEAR | LAST | IF FB% | LD% | OF FB% | +------+---------+--------+-----+--------+ | 2009 | Rollins | 6.0 | 18 | 34 | | 2008 | Rollins | 3.6 | 24 | 27 | | 2007 | Rollins | 3.5 | 20 | 41 | | 2006 | Rollins | 3.9 | 19 | 33 | | 2005 | Rollins | 3.7 | 24 | 28 | | 2004 | Rollins | 3.7 | 21 | 32 | +------+---------+--------+-----+--------+ Waaaay more pop-ups, actually, and the fewest line drives of his career (or at least as far back as 2002, the earliest we have batted ball data for). And while it's obviously a very small sample, Rollins hit two line drives in last night's game (50 percent). Since pop-ups become outs 98 percent of the time, this definitely has something to do with Rollins's BABIP. Also worth noting is that, according to our early look at HITf/x data, posted by Mike Fast at THT Live yesterday, Rollins was among the worst hitters in the majors in terms of Speed Off Bat during the month of April (280th out of 303). As HITf/x is brand new and we don't have anything from 2008 to compare that to, we can't say for sure that this isn't the norm for Rollins, but there's a very good chance that it is not. Speed Off Bat very likely has a high correlation with BABIP, and given Rollins's .300+ career mark coming into the year, I very much doubt he's among the worst in the league at hitting the ball hard. As a side-note, I'm getting super excited for HITf/x. If we had it right now, we'd not only be able to check how Rollins was doing during his early season slump, but we'd also be able to check his Speed Off Bat numbers over the next week or two and see if this mechanical change does appear to be legit. Even if his BABIP is only .200 over the next couple weeks, having the HITf/x data would let us look below the surface and potentially say that "Yes, Jimmy Rollins has made changes and has simply been unlucky since then. Buy!" The specific case of Rollins -- PowerFinally, during the show, another good friend of ours, Patrick DiCaprio, conceded that perhaps a mechanical problem was to blame for Rollins's BABIP, but he couldn't see how it might be to blame for his power loss. While I'm no mechanics expert, I suggested that perhaps it was a matter of the batter shifting his weight improperly or something similar. Now, having a chance to read Rollins's exact explanation of the mechanical change, I think I have a better explanation. Rollins's HR/FB is way down this season at 4.7 percent. To compare, it was 7.2 percent last season and above 10 percent in 2006 and 2007 (and tHR believed it should have been above 10 percent last year as well). If you look at the batted ball table above, however, you'll also notice that Rollins's outfield fly rate is very high, the second highest of his career. This is usually a good thing for a power hitter (more flies equals more opportunities for home runs), but for Rollins, in this specific instance, it may not be. Rollins was never a guy who blasted the ball over the fence to begin with, so if he really is getting under the ball too much, altering the trajectory of his fly balls could have a significant impact on his home runs. If his fly balls are being hit too high up instead of being hit on a straighter line out, logically, fewer of them are going to be clearing the fences. They're going to be landing in the middle of the outfield instead of on the warning track or in the stands. This could also further explain the BABIP. The more time the ball is in the air (as would be happening if Rollins is hitting the ball higher up), the more time the fielders have to get under it and catch it. Fly balls are the easiest batted balls to field to begin with (aside from pop-ups), and Rollins may have been making things even easier for fielders. Concluding thoughtsSo what do you guys think? Am I trying to hard to find a reason to be optimistic about Rollins (full disclosure: he was my most expensive hitter in LABR NL)? Am I simply engaging in a form of logical fallacy? Or does all this make enough sense to believe Rollins might be on the rebound? Posted by Derek Carty at 1:47pm (6) Comments Thursday, June 11, 2009Top 50 Fantasy Prospects in the 2009 MLB Draft with CommentsHere's my big board, fellas. Now that we know where the top players were drafted, we get an idea about the seriousness of each player's signing bonus demands, which is the biggest x-factor in the draft. I will be using this sacred artifact to conduct all of my fantasy drafts. Never draft for need, stick to your board, and enjoy long-term success. Enjoy, and feel free to share your big board in the comments section. Send any minor league questions to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). 1. SP Steven Strasburg - Washington would not draft him at No. 1 if they didn't plan on breaking signing bonus records in the process. They are serious about signing the best college pitching prospect ever. He is that good, but there are of course no guarantees. The human mind can be the worst enemy to a pitcher, which has been proving by countless phenoms fading away into obscurity. If you have the top pick in your league's draft, don't think twice. Strasburg is as good as they come. 2. OF Donovan Tate - San Diego took him No. 3 overall, and they will have to offer a signing bonus beyond what they paid former No. 1 overall pick Matt Bush. It will come down to the wire, but everything is pointing toward the Padres getting a deal done with the top position player in the draft. 3. SP Zack Wheeler - Recently, San Francisco has proven that they know their stuff when it comes to scouting pitching talent. While Wheeler is only my third favorite high school pitcher in the draft, his draft position and organizational situation have me excited. 4. SP Tyler Matzek - Having Matzek, my favorite high school pitching prospect, fall to Colorado breaks my heart. No pitcher has ever been able to consistently put up elite numbers playing half their games at Coors Field. His slide has me thinking that his commitment to Oregon is very strong. I'm cautiously optimistic that the Rockies will make sure he turns pro. 5. SP Matthew Purke - While it's not Coors Field, the Ballpark at Arlington is almost just as bad. Plus he will have to face designated hitters. Matzek fell into a disappointing situation, and now my second favorite high school pitcher is facing a similar calamity. At least Texas has a superb recent history of producing strong pitching prospects. 6. SP Aaron Crow - I can not see Crow failing to sign for a second year in a row. Kansas City believes in investing through the draft. They will get a deal done with the potential ace. 7. SP Jacob Turner - Another top flight high school arm. Detroit knows what they like in a high school arm, and Turner has it. 8. SP Shelby Miller - St. Louis had Miller high on their board, and he fell right into their lap. I have no concerns about the Cardinals not getting a deal done with Miller. 9. SS Jiovanni Mier - I have been critical of Houston's drafting habits, but I like their selection of Mier. In my opinion he is the best pure shortstop in the draft. 10. SP Matt Hobgood - Baltimore surprised many with their early selection of Hobgood, but Baltimore has had a great recent history with pitching prospects. Hobgood fits the mold. 11. OF Dustin Ackley 12. SP Alex White 13. SP Chad James 14. OF Slade Heathcott 15. SP Mike Leake 16. SP Kyle Gibson 17. 3B Bobby Borchering 18. SP Chad Jenkins 19. OF Michael Trout 20. SP Eric Arnett 21. SS Nick Franklin 22. SS Grant Green 23. SP Rex Brothers 24. SP Tanner Scheppers 25. C Wil Myers 26. SP James Paxton 27. C Max Stassi 28. 1B Rich Poythress 29. OF Everett Williams 30. SP Garrett Gould 31. 3B Matt Davidson 32. SP Andy Oliver 33. SP Tyler Skaggs 34. 3B David Renfroe 35. C Tommy Joseph 36. SS Mychal Givens 37. SP Sam Dyson 38. C Tony Sanchez 39. OF Kentrail Davis 40. RP Joe Kelly 41. SP Aaron Miller 42. SP Madison Younginer 43. SP Brody Colvin 44. OF Brett Jackson 45. OF Randal Grichuk 46. SP Kendal Volz 47. SP Kyle Heckathorn 48. SP Mike Minor 49. OF A.J. Pollock 50. SP Brooks Pounders Posted by Matt Hagen at 2:42am (14) Comments Roster Doctor - 6/11/09Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column. Player Pool: Mixed No. of Teams: 12 Categories: Traditional 5x5 Scoring Type: Roto Other Notes: Daily updates Roster: C - Matt Wieters 1B - Mark Teixeira 2B - Ian Kinsler 3B - Alex Rodriguez SS - J.J. Hardy OF - B.J. Upton OF - Curtis Granderson OF - Adam Jones Util - Hank Blalock BN - Ben Francisco Bn - Elvis Andrus BN - Nick Swisher BN - Jarrod Saltalamacchia DL - Grady Sizemore P - Dan Haren P - Josh Johnson P - Chris Carpenter P - Ryan Franklin P - Andrew Bailey P - J.P. Howell P - C.J. Wilson B - Derek Lowe B - Ricky Nolasco DL - Justin Duchscherer It is a shame this is not a keeper league because otherwise your catching tandem of Salty and Wieters would be incredible. Instead, both are mediocre catchers for this season but who knows how good Wieters will be when he settles into the majors. Your infield is flawless besides Hardy but as I've said to previous Hardy owners in this column, you are better off holding onto him than expecting to get anytihng back in a trade. I do still expect him to have a significantly better second 3/5ths of the season than his first 2/5ths. And Andrus is a worthy replacement if I am wrong about Hardy. As it should be in a three-OF league, your outfield is very good and will only get better when Sizemore returns, which is looking like it will happen sooner rather than later. Swisher is a great backup who should be plugged in during his periodic hot streaks. Considering the depth of your outfield, Francisco should be cut because I do not see him fulfilling any role or purpose for your team. He does provide some steals but your team is solid enough with steals with Kinsler, Upton, Granderson, Sizemore (when he returns), and Andrus (who I would consider starting over Hardy while he continues to slump). This certainly is a top half stolen base team—you would have to trade for another speedster to rise to the elite level—but I feel you will place well enough in steals that it is unnecessary to make a trade that would possibly sacrifice your other hitting categories for the sake of gaining two or three points in stolen bases. Moving to your pitching, it is clearly dominant. You lucked out so far with Carpenter and Johnson but in general I would say it is not the best of ideas to select pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery (advice for next year). Lowe is also solid and Nolasco is worth holding onto for his potential. With the roster spot freed up from cutting Francisco, I would take an early stab at one of the potential closers Derek mentioned in this Buy on the Rumor post. Therefore if one of them pans out, you can continue your process of trading closers to bolster your team elsewhere. A strategy that requires some dedication; I think it beneficial for the other readers to see how you put it: I am always chasing saves because I constantly trade away my closers in packaged deals to acquire other players. It has helped me put together trades that have netted most of the big names on my roster. Being first to jump on newly anointed closers has its place in fantasy baseball. For all of you too proud owners (a category I fall into sometimes) there is no shame in joining the digging through the rummage of free agency to find the next closer, especially when it leads to you winning hardware in September. Posted by Paul Singman at 2:45am (14) Comments Friday, June 12, 2009Waiver WireAmerican League by Rob McQuown Brad Bergesen | Baltimore | SP YTD: 4.3 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 4.04 ERA True Talent: 3.3 K/9, 1.2 K/BB, 5.74 ERA Next Week Forecast: 4.2 IP, 0.2 wins, 2 K, 6.34 ERA Bergesen is very difficult to rate; to scope things, though, we'll note up front that he's potentially valuable only in AL-only leagues, and then only certain weeks (i.e., when he's not up against the high-octane offenses). His “True Talent” isn't hot, but he did have a 3.5 K:BB ratio in his minor-league career despite low K numbers. Also, he keeps the ball down (53% GB%, 0.7 HR/9 career minors). The O's slick fielding will continue to bring him “sometimes” success. Yuniesky Betancourt | Seattle | SS YTD: .243/.271/.322 True Talent: .272/.299/.383 Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .272 BA, 0.3 SB Normally, we like to highlight guys to pick up, but in this case, “YuBet” is causing panic. Some players respond to “conversations about work ethic," but we're not holding our breath. Betancourt's fielding this year is his worst ever (.695 RZR/11 OOZ, +/- is already at -12 runs), and both measures are worst among full-time shortstops. Cedeno has stunk even worse, but expect some change soon—maybe slick-fielding Osvaldo Navarro, who is back in the organization and has a .386 OBP at Double-A. Jose Contreras | Chicago | SP YTD: 4.8 K/9, 4.1 K/BB, 6.45 ERA True Talent: 5.3 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 5.25 ERA Next Week Forecast: N/A Contreras was originally expected to miss half the season after injuring his Achilles last year; instead, he went on an offseason workout binge and entered camp in such great shape that many spoke of his physique with awe. He continued to surprise by showing his old nasty stuff, with Ozzie commenting that his stuff looks the best that he has seen from him. Expect more hiccups, but we're going to bypass that True Talent line and suggest that, come August/September, Contreras could be a top-tier starter. Vin Mazzaro | Oakland | SP YTD: 3.3 K/9, 1.3 K/BB, 0.00 ERA True Talent: 4.5 K/9, 1.1 K/BB, 5.40 ERA Next Week Forecast: 4.1 IP, 0.3 wins, 3 K, 5.72 ERA Another week, another young A's pitcher who's all the craze. Winner of Texas League (Double-A) Pitcher of the Year in 2008, Mazzaro hit the ground running this year in Triple-A as well (2.40 ERA, great peripherals). Mazzaro throws hard, but like Fausto Carmona, he probably won't ever have the Ks to show for it, as he strives for groundouts. Expect the A's great defense to make Mazzaro a viable option against Chicago, KC, and Seattle, even in shallow mixed leagues. Lyle Overbay | Toronto | 1B YTD: .301/.406/.568 True Talent: .272/.355/.453 Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, .275 BA, 0.1 SB The Toronto Blue Jays this year are collectively telling True Talent to “Take a hike, eh!” Cito's magic has transformed the 4.0-RPG team that he inherited up to well over 5 RPG. Overbay has always hit RHP better, and his rate stats this year are helped by having only 23 PA against LHP. He's a .286/.381/.468 career hitter versus RHP, and we're sold on the “Cito bump,” thinking that Overbay will exceed even that line. He should be better than a “filler” in most formats. Scott Podsednik | Chicago | OF YTD: .296/.353/.387 True Talent: .266/.328/.358 Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 2 R, 1 RBI, .261 BA, 0.8 SB 2005 postseason hero “Scotty Pods” is back on the South Side! How thoughtful of the team to leave the lead-off spot “vacant” until he returned. Ozzie will have tough decisions when Quentin is back, since even when Pods regresses, they need him leading off (never thought we'd say that...). Expect a 25-SB pace and batting stats better than his “True Talent,” since Podsednik will be rested (and also get to avoid the toughest LHP). Aaron Poreda | Chicago | RP/SP YTD: 9.7 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 2.39 ERA (Double-A) True Talent: N/A Next Week Forecast: N/A We are tripling up on White Sox this week, as the team has so many changes with significant players lately. We're guessing that this trip to the majors is just “intermission” for Poreda, helping to keep his IP down before a deserved promotion to Triple-A. Poresa can touch 100 MPH, and he had 50% GB% in Double-A. For keeper leagues, Poreda is an elite SP prospect and worth bidding as such. It would take a big break for him to be useful this year, though. Jason Vargas | Seattle | SP YTD: 5.4 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 2.35 ERA True Talent: 6.6 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 4.43 ERA Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 wins, 4 K, 4.43 ERA Once a highly regarded prospect, Vargas has always allowed far too many homers, a tendency that's discounted by most projection systems. Still, his tendency is in the right park, with an exceptional trio of outfielders (.948 RZR, 126 OOZ catches). And YuBet's awful defense hurts him less. With no offensive support, plus the home runs, Vargas is only a “some weeks” guy in AL-only leagues. National League by Michael Street Mike MacDougal | Washington | RP YTD: 7.4 K/9, 1.0 K/BB, 4.91 ERA True Talent: 7.9 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4.18 ERA Next Week Forecast: 0.9 Saves, 4.31 ERA In the Nationals’ "Flavor of the Week" bullpen, MacDougal is not an appetizing selection. His career numbers, True Talent rates, and YTD stats all show that he can throw strikes; he just doesn’t know when they’re coming. Manny Acta has hinted that MacDougal won’t be closing for long, so he is a short-term pickup for NL-only leagues, and any team that needs saves without strong ratios. Carlos Gonzalez | Colorado | OF YTD: .222/.333/.333 True Talent: .262/.307/.411 Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .260 BA, 0.2 SB Time is running out on this former top prospect who's now in his third organization. After torching the minors (.339/.418/.630), Gonzalez will get the chance to stick in LF. He doesn’t hit lefties well (.764 versus .901 against RHP), and he still needs to prove that he can hit major-league pitching, so he could platoon. Only NL leagues deeper than 14 teams should think about Gonzalez, but every owner should watch to see if this talent finally arrives. Matt Maloney | Cincinnati | SP YTD: 6.0 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 3.00 ERA True Talent: N/A Next Week Forecast: N/A When Edinson Volquez hit the DL, the Reds brought up Maloney, who has been lighting up the minors (7.8 K/9, 6.4 K/BB, 2.01 ERA). Don’t let the strikeout numbers fool you—Maloney is more finesse than power, so he has to control his three pitches well to succeed. He’ll have to fight to stick in the rotation when Volquez returns, but owners needing pitching in 12-team NL leagues or 15-team mixed leagues can ride him until then. Leo Nunez | Florida | RP YTD: 8.1 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 3.10 ERA True Talent: 7.3 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.68 ERA Next Week Forecast: 0.4 saves, 4.02 ERA Nunez collected two saves when Lindstrom couldn’t shut the door for the Fish. And even though Fredi Gonzalez insists that there has been no changing of the guard, that vote of confidence will disappear if Lindstrom maintains his 7.0 BB/9 rate. Until then, Nunez will help your ratios and K, making him a mandatory insurance policy for Lindstrom owners, and a strong roster addition for NL-only teams and any deep league where you’re speculating on saves. Laynce Nix | Cincinnati | OF YTD: .268/.324/.553 True Talent: .254/.310/.478 Next Week Forecast: 0.8 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, .257 BA, 0.1 SB Nix’s potential has always been hampered by his inability to take a pitch (0.18 BB/K career). He has boosted that figure this year to .27 BB/K, but that rate (and his True Talent) shows what he’ll do to your BA. Still, he’ll give you dingers and a handful of RBI from the Reds’ 5- or 6-hole. Being the heavy half of the platoon makes him a good play only in weekly or 14-team leagues. Aaron Rowand | San Francisco | OF YTD: .307/.373/.485 True Talent: .284/.347/.452 Next Week Forecast: 0.8 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .293 BA, 0.3 SB Rowand followed his injury-shortened .745 OPS in 2006 with a .889 OPS in 2007. Last year he regressed to a .749 OPS, but his performance in 2009 looks a lot like that 2007 rebound, right down to an identical 123 OPS+. True Talent and a .357 BABIP say that he won’t sustain that level, so don’t expect a .300 BA or steals, but 12-team NL leagues and 14-team mixed leagues can ride his hot bat as an extra outfielder. Carlos Ruiz | Philadelphia | CA YTD: .287/.410/.475 True Talent: .262/.352/.395 Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .261 BA, 0.3 SB Ruiz this year has added power to patience, already nearly reaching last year’s 2B and HR totals. He’s hitting more fly balls (34.4 GB% after 54.3% in 2008 and 46.2% in 2007) and increased his HR rate (6.9% HR/F after 4.5% in 2008 and 4.7% in 2007). Those numbers will regress as his legs wear down, but owners in 8+ team NL leagues and all 14+ team mixed leagues can ride him while he’s hot. Sean West | Florida | SP YTD: 5.5 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 2.22 ERA True Talent: 7.1 K/9, 1.0 K/BB, 6.11 ERA Next Week Forecast: 4.2 IP, 0.2 wins, 4 K, 6.66 ERA Nobody noticed West’s two decent May starts, but everyone grabbed him after his seven no-hit innings against the Giants. The tall lefty, a 2005 first-round pick, deserves the attention even if True Talent and his .167 BABIP say a correction is looming. Like Maloney, West may not stick when the regular pitcher (Anibal Sanchez) returns, and West's numbers are a bit fringe-y, but he’s worth a long look in 10-team NL or 14-team mixed leagues. Posted by THT Staff at 2:00am (13) Comments Monday, June 15, 2009Using FIP to evaluate pitchers? I wouldn’t
What is FIP?FIP is a statistic that attempts to estimate what a pitcher's ERA would be based on his peripheral statistics—or rather, the peripheral statistics originally suggested by Voros McCracken when he introduced DIPS Theory. This includes strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. While we know that strikeouts and walks are extremely important, eight years after Voros's work was originally published, we can definitively say that home runs aren't entirely under a pitcher's control. Here's how things work: a pitcher can influence the rate of fly balls he gives up. By this logic, the more fly balls allowed, the more total balls will clear the fences for home runs (all else being equal). However, while a starting pitcher can control the rate of fly balls allowed, he cannot do a very good job of controlling the rate at which those fly balls become home runs (with very few exceptions). To put it more simply, starting pitchers don't have any underlying ability to prevent home runs—the best they can do is prevent fly balls. If those fly balls are clearing the fence at too high a rate (or too low), we say that the pitcher has been unlucky (or lucky). And therein lies the problem with FIP. Pitchers undervalued by FIPHere is a list of pitchers that have been undervalued by FIP so far in 2009. If you were to look at the FIP of these pitchers, you would believe that they have pitched worse than they actually have. To explain the table below, we're seeing the pitcher's LIPS ERA (which also estimates ERA but normalizes HR/FB, in addition to some other things), his FIP, and the difference between the two. I've also included each pitcher's HR/FB rate so you can see just how much this stat influences FIP (for the worse). League average is around 11 percent, and you'll notice that just about every player on this list is well above that number. +-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+ | LAST | FIRST | G | GS | IP | ERA | LIPS ERA | FIP | LIPS-FIP | HR/FB | +-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+ | Geer | Joshua B | 11 | 9 | 58.7 | 6.14 | 4.48 | 5.97 | -1.49 | 18% | | Guthrie | Jeremy | 13 | 13 | 73.3 | 5.52 | 4.39 | 5.78 | -1.39 | 17% | | Colon | Bartolo | 11 | 11 | 55.3 | 4.23 | 4.21 | 5.60 | -1.39 | 19% | | Harden | Rich | 9 | 9 | 49.7 | 4.53 | 3.18 | 4.47 | -1.29 | 23% | | Bush | David T | 13 | 12 | 74.7 | 4.58 | 4.34 | 5.52 | -1.18 | 17% | | Baker | Scott S | 11 | 11 | 67.7 | 5.59 | 3.76 | 4.93 | -1.17 | 17% | | Young | Chris | 13 | 13 | 73.7 | 4.76 | 4.16 | 5.13 | -0.97 | 11% | | Johnson | Randy | 13 | 13 | 70.0 | 4.89 | 3.61 | 4.55 | -0.94 | 22% | | Galarraga | Armando | 13 | 13 | 69.7 | 5.56 | 5.08 | 6.02 | -0.94 | 17% | | Blanton | Joe M | 12 | 12 | 71.3 | 5.17 | 3.97 | 4.86 | -0.89 | 19% | | Suppan | Jeff | 13 | 13 | 70.3 | 4.48 | 4.88 | 5.72 | -0.84 | 16% | | Moyer | Jamie | 12 | 12 | 66.3 | 6.11 | 4.97 | 5.81 | -0.84 | 16% | | Parra | Manny | 13 | 13 | 64.7 | 7.52 | 4.39 | 5.12 | -0.73 | 15% | | Davies | Kyle K | 13 | 13 | 77.0 | 5.14 | 4.67 | 5.34 | -0.67 | 14% | | Eaton | Adam | 8 | 8 | 41.0 | 8.56 | 5.29 | 5.96 | -0.67 | 16% | | Looper | Braden | 12 | 12 | 68.0 | 4.50 | 4.58 | 5.23 | -0.65 | 18% | | Oswalt | Roy | 14 | 14 | 82.3 | 4.37 | 3.96 | 4.56 | -0.60 | 15% | | Slowey | Kevin | 13 | 13 | 78.7 | 4.23 | 3.57 | 4.09 | -0.52 | 11% | | Sonnanstine | Andy | 13 | 13 | 70.3 | 6.65 | 4.97 | 5.48 | -0.51 | 16% | | Carmona | Fausto C | 12 | 12 | 60.7 | 7.42 | 5.58 | 6.08 | -0.50 | 18% | +-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+ While true for nearly all players to some extent, if you see analysis done on these players using FIP, take note that the conclusions should probably be much more positive. Pitchers overvalued by FIPHere is a list of pitchers that have been overvalued by FIP so far in 2009. If you were to look at the FIP of these pitchers, you would believe that they have pitched better than they actually have. +-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+ | LAST | FIRST | G | GS | IP | ERA | LIPS ERA | FIP | LIPS-FIP | HR/FB | +-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+ | Lowe | Derek | 13 | 13 | 83.7 | 3.44 | 4.75 | 3.20 | 1.55 | 3% | | Billingsley | Chad R | 13 | 13 | 85.7 | 2.73 | 4.07 | 2.73 | 1.34 | 3% | | Stults | Eric W | 9 | 9 | 45.0 | 4.80 | 5.47 | 4.14 | 1.33 | 3% | | Jurrjens | Jair | 13 | 13 | 79.0 | 2.85 | 4.83 | 3.53 | 1.30 | 5% | | Garland | Jon | 13 | 13 | 76.0 | 5.45 | 6.42 | 5.13 | 1.29 | 9% | | Blackburn | Nick N | 13 | 13 | 84.3 | 3.31 | 5.40 | 4.22 | 1.18 | 7% | | Greinke | Zack Z | 13 | 13 | 94.3 | 1.72 | 3.01 | 1.92 | 1.09 | 2% | | Pelfrey | Mike A | 11 | 11 | 65.3 | 4.68 | 5.48 | 4.40 | 1.08 | 8% | | Lincecum | Tim | 13 | 13 | 88.0 | 2.66 | 3.24 | 2.22 | 1.02 | 4% | | Rodriguez | Wandy | 13 | 13 | 79.7 | 2.82 | 4.16 | 3.16 | 1.00 | 7% | | Hammel | Jason A | 12 | 9 | 54.0 | 4.33 | 4.94 | 3.99 | 0.95 | 11% | | Carpenter | Chris | 7 | 7 | 44.0 | 1.23 | 3.34 | 2.39 | 0.95 | 3% | | Jimenez | Ubaldo | 13 | 13 | 82.7 | 3.92 | 4.21 | 3.27 | 0.94 | 6% | | Meche | Gil | 13 | 13 | 75.3 | 3.70 | 4.00 | 3.08 | 0.92 | 3% | | Happ | J.A. | 16 | 4 | 45.3 | 2.98 | 5.34 | 4.42 | 0.92 | 9% | | Pineiro | Joel | 12 | 12 | 76.7 | 3.99 | 4.01 | 3.09 | 0.92 | 4% | | Verlander | Justin B | 13 | 13 | 86.3 | 3.02 | 3.26 | 2.36 | 0.90 | 6% | | Lee | Cliff | 13 | 13 | 88.0 | 3.17 | 4.03 | 3.15 | 0.88 | 6% | | Miller | Andrew M | 10 | 8 | 46.0 | 4.30 | 4.45 | 3.62 | 0.83 | 5% | | Johnson | Josh | 13 | 13 | 89.0 | 2.73 | 3.55 | 2.72 | 0.83 | 6% | | Washburn | Jarrod | 12 | 12 | 76.3 | 3.30 | 4.53 | 3.71 | 0.82 | 7% | | Padilla | Vicente | 11 | 11 | 65.3 | 4.82 | 5.70 | 4.89 | 0.81 | 8% | | Wakefield | Tim | 12 | 12 | 76.0 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 4.75 | 0.75 | 6% | +-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+ While true for nearly all players to some extent, if you see analysis done on these players using FIP, take note that the conclusions should probably be much more negative. Evaluating on your ownIf you're looking for an alternative to FIP for evaluating players on your own, you have a few options. LIPS ERA is my favorite, and it's now available in Heater Magazine. You could also simply go with xFIP, which appears on every THT player page and is sortable on the leaders pages. Other free options include stats like tRA and QERA. Concluding thoughtsHopefully this cleared some things up for some of you, as I know I've gotten a few questions about FIP this season. For those of you who were already aware of its shortcomings, well, hopefully you at least enjoyed chewing on the leaderboards presented. As always, if you have any questions, feel free to e-mail me or comment. Posted by Derek Carty at 2:01am (38) Comments Tuesday, June 16, 2009Roster Doctor - 6/16/09Normally we post a full roster and give advice based on what we see. But let's cut to the chase this time. One reader writes an e-mail with the subject line: "Dear Lord Do I Need Help." I question why this reader is asking for my divine help after he clearly has cut a deal with the devil. How else to explain a roster comprised of this All-Star injury list: Jose Reyes, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin, Joey Votto? The reader asks: "So, I have six bench spots and five of them are occupied by players on the DL with no set timetables on when they may return and then there is Denard Span, who seems to have wandered into the same Mystery Spot that Votto did and so one can only imagine when he will resume playing. I know that 3/5 of my starting rotation is rather mediocre at best and would like to improve it, but what I can realistically expect to get back for any of the players currently on the DL?" Personally, I wouldn't give much for any of these players—too much risk involved—but I'm betting you'll still get a decent return. At very least, you should be able to get a starting pitcher who has struggled out of the gate, but whose fortunes may rise. According to data, players like Quentin and Hamilton have recently netted pitchers like Jon Lester, Roy Oswalt, John Lackey, Rich Harden, Francisco Liriano, and Josh Beckett. We see that Jose Reyes and Joey Votto are commanding a bit more. Maybe it's because teams expect them back sooner. Regardless, these players have been netting pitchers like Dan Haren, Cole Hamels, Carlos Zambrano, Josh Johnson, and even Johan Santana. With this many injuries, in a weekly H2H league, it's imperative to deal quickly and upgrade where you can. Put all your injured superstars on the block, announce you want to trade at least two of them for great pitchers, and take the best offers. Sit on the remaining superstars and hope you can squeak by in time for a playoff push. Posted by Eriq Gardner at 2:30am (3) Comments Worst Monday: Balloting openOnce again, we're looking for the online fantasy leaguer with the most aggravating Monday. Each weekly winner gets a year of Heater Magazine. The winner with the lowest score for the season gets a free copy of the 2010 Graphical Player, coming out in December. (Our debut winner, and current season leader, put up -4.5 points.) Entering's a snap: 1. Send an email to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). 2. Put Worst Monday in the subject line along with your Monday point total. 3. Attach a screen shot of your roster and their points scored for Monday. (You can paste the screen shot in a Word document and attach that.) We need the screen shot—don't spell out the tallies in the email. 4. Add brief biographical material. We'll sift through the entries and announce the winner on Wednesday. Let's hear from all you owners of Dave Bush, Carl Pavano, and Barry Zito! Counselors are standing by.... Posted by John Burnson at 3:00am (2) Comments How to deal with a rabble-rouser like Ron ShandlerIf you’re lucky enough to be near the top of the standings in your league, you probably haven’t spent a lot of time considering those who are unfortunate to be near the bottom. But you should. Last week, on subscription Website BaseballHQ, Ron Shandler posted a column entitled: “How to make enemies and influence pennant races.” In the piece, Shandler talked about going into the 2009 season in one of his expert keeper leagues with a strategy to punt the year in the interest of rebuilding for 2010. Heading into the draft this year, he only kept players whose contracts would be desirable the following spring. During the draft, he built a large reserve of high-ceiling prospects. And when things didn’t go exactly as planned to start this season, he e-mailed the league to let everybody know that his best players, including Carl Crawford and Ryan Howard, would soon be dealt for attractive keepers. Dump trades can be an irritating but inevitable aspect of keeper leagues, but Shandler took things a step further: After receiving some offers, he then upped the ante by sending out another e-mail that publicized in full detail all of them—inviting league members to step up to the plate and win the competition for his players with full knowledge of what everyone in the league was offering. Unfortunately, in many fantasy leagues and particularly in keeper ones, those who are out of competition can, as Shandler’s column title accurately puts it, influence pennant races. Not every hard-luck team is a rabble-rouser like Mr. Shandler either. Some can shake up the competitive balance of the league in more subtle ways. Consider the team who falls out of competition, loses interest, and fails to make basic lineup adjustments like replacing an injured player in the active lineup. That team’s neglect may amount to free points and standings gain for some teams who under normal circumstances might languish. Other teams may do things much more drastic like cutting a good player out of spite. In short, any team that loses hope becomes prone to irrational roster moves, rash trading behavior, and unbecoming conduct that dampens the competitive security of those who are in the lead. Successful teams need to take time to consider how to deal with the less fortunate. In some instances, this requires, yes, charity. If I’m doing well enough in the standings and I see a player on waivers who I can’t use, but I know this player might help one of the struggling teams, I might tactfully point it out to the team. (Besides, a good player that’s added to the last-place team’s roster doesn’t get taken by your nearest competitor.) Also, I try not to go into trade negotiations with a struggling team with the idea that I’m going to rip them off and rob them of any competitive hopes. First, being generous makes a potential deal more likely. Second, the strategy raises the bar on negotiations between the struggling team and other competitors. And lastly, I want to mitigate the risk that a struggling team’s further performance decline becomes beneficial and advantageous to other teams. Sometimes, however, being nice won’t do the trick. Some stubborn teams have given up hope and wish to have some fun and excitement at the expense of others. What to do? Challenge their pride? Organize some sort of collective action against the trouble-maker? Sink to their level and become the beneficiary of the league’s king-maker? It often depends on circumstance. In Shandler’s case, he is, no doubt, a rabble-rouser, but at least he’s got his team at heart. If I’m playing in his league, I don’t ignore him. Being non-cooperative can only result in ending up as the loser. Dealing with Shandler becomes the only choice. Playing Shandler's game by Shandler's rules, however, is a completely different story. In next week's column, I'll be delving into some classic game theory to try to figure out a strategy that counters Shandler's gambit. Posted by Eriq Gardner at 3:02am (16) Comments Explaining LIPSIt’s been almost four years since I first tried to devise a defense-independent pitching metric that incorporated batted ball data. I was inspired, then, by Voros McCracken’s articles on DIPS, both the original where he showed that pitchers appear to have little control over the results of balls put into play against them, and his follow-up, where Voros examined various improvements that could be made to DIPS, one of which was to incorporate batted ball data. For years, I’ve been tinkering with various ways to do just that. The first incarnation of this statistic I called DIPS 3.0 (since Voros had already released two versions), but since I’ve switched to LIPS, which stands for “Luck Independent Pitching Statistics.” See, in my research I have found that not only do pitchers have little control over the results of their balls in play, but they also have little control over the number of home runs they allow, outside of their flyball or groundball tendencies. I repeat: Outside of forcing ground balls, an ability by the way, which is very persistent, there is little a pitcher can do to prevent home runs. In light of this, we must re-assess Voros’ spectrum of what a pitcher can and cannot control. Rather than giving a pitcher credit for his strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitch, and home runs and ignoring everything else as Voros did, we want to give him credit for his strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitch, infield flies, outfield flies, and ground balls, while ignoring or adjusting everything else. At this point, we are not just removing defense from the equation, but luck itself, which is why I eventually changed the name of my statistic from “DIPS 3.0” to “LIPS.” So how do we calculate LIPS? It’s a complicated process, one which has undergone many revisions, so in the interest of making it clear to all, I thought I’d show you through an example, using Rich Harden as my guinea pig (note that I haven’t updated my database in about a week, so these stats are a bit dated):
That’s the basic process. OK, I understand that it’s anything but basic, but I hope my explanation was simple enough for all to follow. Every step is based on thorough research, a lot of which you can read in The Hardball Times Annual 2007 if you so desire, but otherwise you’ll have to take my word for it. LIPS takes the luck out of pitching statistics better than any other such stat I’ve ever read about, and that’s why we use it so often here at THT Fantasy. If you have any questions, fire away in the comments section and I’ll try to answer them as best I can. Posted by David Gassko at 3:30am (17) Comments Wednesday, June 17, 2009The great strikeout debate (Part II)About a month ago I introduced the idea that the common measure of strikeout ability for pitchers, strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), is flawed and suggested a better measure which I named True K percentage. True K percentage is different from K/9 in that its baseline is at-bats instead of outs. It is also different from strikeout percentage (K%) in that walks are filtered out of the equation because I believe control and strikeout ability are two unrelated skills for the most part. To get a better understanding of why some of these decisions were made the way they were, I encourage you to read over the first "Strikeout debate" article and the accompanying comments. As another refresher, here are the exact formulas I am using: K/9 = (K * 9) / IP K% = (K / TBF) * 100 True K% = (K / K + BIP) * 100 Now that were have discussed the pros and cons of all three strikeout measures—K/9, K%, True K%—in a theoretical sense, let's roll out the numbers for each pitcher and see who they disagree on. The following chart shows the top 25 starters for each measure in 2009, with a minimum of five games started (165 starting pitchers qualify). K/9 K% True K% 1 Rich Harden 11.23 Javier Vazquez 31.16% Rich Harden 34.64% 2 Javier Vazquez 11.21 Justin Verlander 30.37% Justin Verlander 33.76% 3 Justin Verlander 11.05 Rich Harden 28.97% Javier Vazquez 33.65% 4 Jon Lester 10.62 Tim Lincecum 28.14% Jon Lester 31.58% 5 Tim Lincecum 10.53 Jon Lester 27.83% Johan Santana 30.95% 6 Johan Santana 10.37 Johan Santana 27.58% Tim Lincecum 30.93% 7 Jake Peavy 10.14 Jake Peavy 27.46% Jake Peavy 30.77% 8 Jorge de la Rosa 9.62 Zack Greinke 26.43% Chad Billingsley 29.61% 9 Jordan Zimmermann 9.47 Dan Haren 25.50% Jorge de la Rosa 28.57% 10 Chad Billingsley 9.46 Chad Billingsley 25.50% Jordan Zimmermann 28.04% 11 Daisuke Matsuzaka 9.29 Jordan Zimmermann 24.90% Zack Greinke 27.87% 12 Max Scherzer 9.27 Jorge de la Rosa 24.49% Max Scherzer 27.82% 13 Zack Greinke 9.25 Erik Bedard 23.99% Yovani Gallardo 27.80% 14 David Purcey 9.12 Max Scherzer 23.96% Clayton Kershaw 27.56% 15 Josh Beckett 8.96 Yovani Gallardo 23.91% Dan Haren 27.44% 16 Erik Bedard 8.91 Josh Beckett 23.24% David Purcey 27.08% 17 Jonathan Sanchez 8.89 Felix Hernandez 23.20% Erik Bedard 27.08% 18 Yovani Gallardo 8.88 Clayton Kershaw 22.79% Edinson Volquez 26.86% 19 Felix Hernandez 8.86 Wandy Rodriguez 22.73% Josh Beckett 26.48% 20 Clayton Kershaw 8.72 Roy Halladay 21.78% Jonathan Sanchez 26.42% 21 Dan Haren 8.62 David Purcey 21.67% Joba Chamberlain 25.66% 22 Edinson Volquez 8.52 Edinson Volquez 21.56% Felix Hernandez 25.61% 23 Wandy Rodriguez 8.47 Randy Johnson 21.48% Wandy Rodriguez 25.51% 24 Oliver Perez 8.31 Josh Johnson 21.33% Randy Johnson 24.71% 25 Joba Chamberlain 8.24 Jered Weaver 21.23% A.J. Burnett 24.54% As you can tell by looking across the rows and finding different pitchers, there are significant differences for a lot of them. Even the best strikeout pitcher is questioned with K/9 and True K% saying it is Rich Harden while K% likes Javier Vazquez. Since we understand the formulas behind the three, we know why some pitchers are ranked higher in some than in others. A pitcher like Dan Haren will be ranked more highly by K% since he walks very few batters. And Oliver Perez has the greatest difference in K% and True K% because of his 8.72 BB/9 rate. But what type of pitchers are ranked most different between K/9 and True K%? It is harder to define the type of pitcher so lets look at those with the biggest gaps. The five pitchers with the greatest differential between their K/9 and True K% ranked higher by True K% are: {exp:list_maker}Mark Buehrle David Bush Chris Carpenter Johnny Cueto Kyle Davies {/exp:list_maker} The five pitchers with the greatest difference between their K/9 and True K% ranked lower by True K% are: {exp:list_maker}Chien-Ming Wang Ricky Nolasco Oliver Perez Dana Eveland Kevin Slowey {/exp:list_maker} I was not exactly sure of the relationship between these pitchers until I had finished the list of pitchers that are ranked lower, and I realized that all of those pitchers had terrible starts with the exception of Slowey. Then I began thinking what caused their poor performance and realized BABIP had a lot to do with it. Checking out their BABIPs, I found that even Slowey has an unlucky BABIP of .351 and the group as a whole has an average mark of .406. Then it was easy to realize the first group, those ranked higher, must have relatively low BABIPs. I was right; their collective average BABIP is .249, led by Carpenter's .210 mark. If you think about it this should make sense that the difference is BABIP-dependent since for True K% you are dividing by all balls in play while in K/9 you are only dividing by those balls in play that go for outs. The difference between all balls in play and balls in play that become outs is balls in play that become do not become outs—or what you would otherwise call hits. And hits are the driving force between a high or low BABIP. My next thought was that the pitchers whose rank is about the same for both measures True K% and K/9 would have BABIPs about league-average .300. That also turned out true as the 11 pitchers with no change in rank averaged a BABIP of .307. This best shows how True K% is superior to K/9 because True K% is not wrongly affected by BABIP, which as far as I am aware of, is not something that should have any effect on a pitcher's strikeout rate. You should not think of True K% as an attempt to predict K/9, you should use True K to completely replace K/9. After seeing the numbers for the first time, I began wondering how many times I must have quoted a pitcher's decreased K/9 rate as the reason for his problems when really it was poor BABIP luck showing up again in his strikeout rate. The main practical use of True K% that you can identify some pitchers whose perception of their skills is incorrect, making them good trade targets. In the next article, I will get a spreadsheet up of the True K% numbers for all pitchers over the last few seasons and point out some specific pitchers whose perception of their strikeout ability may be off because of a difference in their K/9 and True K numbers. Now I will turn over the floor to any of your thoughts... Thank you to Fangraphs for data and Derek for discussing the True K formula with me. | ||||||||
