THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Paul Singman at 4:07am (10) Comments

Worst Monday: Balloting open

A broad slate of games yesterday, including five teams that scored 10 runs or more. Will the hitting outweigh the pitching? How low will this week's winning score be? Will it even be negative? Let's find out.

Entering's a snap:

1. Send an email to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

2. Put Worst Monday in the subject line along with your Monday point total.

3. Attach a screen shot of your roster and their points scored for Monday. (You can paste the screen shot in a Word document and attach that.) We need the screen shot—don't spell out the tallies in the email.

4. Add brief biographical material.

We'll sift through the entries & give the lowest score on Wednesday. Each weekly winner gets a year of Heater Magazine. The winner with the lowest score for the season gets a free copy of the 2010 Graphical Player, coming out in December.

Also, we wanted to recognize the winners from Week 5, John Kral and Ricardo Elorza. Only one of the two owned Johnny Cueto, but both were undone by starting pitching.

Posted by John Burnson at 7:59am (0) Comments

Thursday, July 23, 2009

What to Make of Brett Anderson and Other Prospect Notes

This week, I have broken down five new additions to the Top 50 and got caught up on my statistic projections. Visit our Top 100 List to see the latest version, complete with all of the latest advanced prospect projections.

Brett Anderson / SP / Oakland / MLB / 2/1/88 / ETA: 2009 / High: #27 / Low: #53 / This Week: +26
2009 Thoughts:
After a slow start, Anderson is beginning to figure out big league hitters. His raw talent is taking over. He is a strong back of the rotation starter for the rest of the fantasy season, with an even brighter future ahead of him.
Average Year Projection:
201 IP / 3.62 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 172 SO / 190 H / 58 BB
Prime Year Projection:
215 IP / 3.20 ERA / 1.12 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 209 SO / 191 H / 50 BB
Notes:
7/22/09 - I should have known better. I've been sleeping on Anderson all year after his mildly poor start. He is starting to figure out the major leagues, and it shows in his attacking approach and confidence on the mound. If you're in a keeper league and you bought low on Anderson, I praise you.

Martin Perez / SP / Texas / Single-A / 4/4/91 / ETA: 2012 / High: #42 / Low: #57 / This Week: +13
2009 Thoughts:
Perez represents another great find for Texas' organization. The 18-year-old should remain in the South Atlantic League to close out the season, but stardom awaits if he continues to put in the work.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
7/22/09 - Perez is inducing ground balls, striking out more than a hitter per inning, keeping his walks in check, and essentially dominating a league full of hitters that an 18-year-old shouldn't be facing.

Jordan Lyles / SP / Houston / Single-A / 10/19/90 / ETA: 2012 / High: #46 / Low: UR / This Week: +6
2009 Thoughts:
Lyles' breakout season is showing the world why Houston made him a sandwich pick in the 2008 draft. He may finish up the season battling High-A hitters if everything stays on track.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
7/22/09 - He's allowed a few more hits than one would like, but, besides Martin Perez, it's hard to find a better pitcher in the Sally League. His strikeouts are through the roof and his walks are at a manageable rate for a kid his age. I'm hoping to see more video of him in order to get a better feel for his pure stuff, but it's impossible to ignore his season. His success has been paramount in bringing respect back to Houston's scouting department and farm system.

Lonnie Chisenhall / 3B/SS / Cleveland / Advanced-A / 10/4/88 / ETA: 2011 / High: #47 / Low: UR / This Week: +12
2009 Thoughts:
Chisenhall has put his critics in their place with his strong full-season debut in the Carolina League. A Double-A promotion to close out the season could be in the cards.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
7/22/09 - From a fantasy perspective, the only Chisenhall criticism that I can place on Cleveland is the fact that they moved the young man to third base. I would have loved to see Chisenhall get a legit shot to stay at shortstop. Oh well. Lonnie's bat will play just fine at third base too. Cleveland sports one of the more loaded farm systems in baseball.

Freddie Freeman / 1B / Atlanta / Double-A / 9/12/89 / ETA: 2011 / High: #49 / Low: #78 / This Week: +14
2009 Thoughts:
Freeman's 2009 hasn't been as in-your-face as his 2008, but he has shown that his debut was no fluke. He calls Double-A Mississippi home, and for good reason
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
7/22/09 - The kid should hit for a good average no matter where he plays, but his power has been hit or miss thus far in his career. It's the only aspect of his game that is holding him back, as he displays good plate discipline and excellent contact skills for a wannabe power hitter. Give us the good stuff, Freeman. Dudes dig the long ball too.

Posted by Matt Hagen at 1:07am (4) Comments

Roster Doctor

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

Don't dive in head first, we're going shallow today...

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 10
Categories: AVG, HR, R, 2B, RBI, SB, OPS // W, ERA, K, WHIP, SV, K/BB, HR Allowed
Scoring: Head-to-Head
Other notes: Weekly updates, Non-keeper
Roster:

C - Jorge Posada
1B - Mark Teixeira
2B - Dan Uggla
3B - Mark Reynolds
SS - Alexei Ramirez
CI - Adam Dunn
MI - Chone Figgins
OF - Josh Hamilton
OF - Matt Kemp
OF- Vernon Wells
OF - Nelson Cruz
UT - Kendry Morales
BN - Rafael Furcal
BN - Aubrey Huff
DL - Carlos Beltran

SP - Javier Vazquez
SP - John Danks
SP - Clayton Kershaw
RP - Jose Valverde
RP - Scott Downs
P - Chad Qualls
P - Mike Gonzalez
P - Wandy Rodriguez
BN - Scott Baker
BN - Francisco Liriano
BN - Kerry Wood
DL- Tim Hudson

Here is the classic 10 team roster, one full of All Stars and near All Stars. It is hard to suggest improvements for a team like this, but I will throw out my opinion on the players I find interesting.

Uggla, the one player who could be called "struggling" in your infield, is still hitting for power (good in a league with OPS) but his batting average has taken a big hit this year.

+----------------------------------------------------------------+
| Dan Uggla Plate Discipline                                     |
+--------+---------+-------------+------+-------------+----------+
| Season | Team    | Judgment X  | A/P  | Bat Control | Bad Ball |
+--------+---------+-------------+------+-------------+----------+
|  2006  | Marlins |          91 | 0.34 |          84 |       44 |
|  2007	 | Marlins |          95 | 0.39	|          82 |       41 |
|  2008	 | Marlins |          92 | 0.33	|          80 |       44 |
|  2009	 | Marlins |         100 | 0.23	|          85 |       54 |
+--------+---------+-------------+------+-------------+----------+

However looking at his plate discipline stats, Uggla has actually showed surprising improvement in this area this year, making his .230 batting average all the more suspicious. As his undeserved .257 BABIP climbs so will his batting average, making this a poor time to try to upgrade Uggla. He will upgrade himself naturally, if that makes sense.

I own Clippard in one league because of his SP eligibility. And because he is pitching well. (Icon/SMI)

As for the outfield, I like all of your hitters going forward. Do not sweat Kemp's .396 BABIP too much—sure he might hit closer to .300 than .320 the rest of the season but his power/speed combo allows him to maintain a very high BABIP rate. I also would not worry about selling Nelson Cruz because of his surprsing power display this season. It is mostly for real and if anything, his batting average could stand to rise some.

I am also impressed with your pitching, headed by the impressive combination of Vazquez and Kershaw. Baker, Wandy, and Danks are solid pitchers as well so I understand if you want to keep your rotation intact. If you are willing to take a risk, though, allow me to suggest somewhat of a radical strategy for your pitching staff.

Even in Head-to-Head leagues with standard categories I sometimes am a fan of the pitch-only-aces-and-strong-middle-relievers/closers strategy. Well, in this league with both K/BB and home runs allowed—both categories favoring relievers—the incentive is even greater to put that strategy to use.

It would work by trading most of your starters to bolster your bullpen and hitting lineup. A trade like Kershaw for a very good hitter is an example; I'd imagine Kershaw could command a near-elite hitter if Morales or Wandy were also added to the mix.

Once you have done that, you should start only the one or two starting pitchers you have remaining, and the five relief arms you own. You can start even more relievers if you acquire a reliever with SP-eligibility like Dan Meyer, Tyler Clippard, Alfredo Aceves, Franklin Morales, or Chris Sampson and start them in an SP spot.

With a pitching staff looking like that, Wins and Strikeouts will probably be tossed every week. ERA, WHIP, Saves, K/BB, and HR Allowed, however, should all be won most weeks. That means you will go 5-2 in the pitching categories and your hitting will be upgraded from the starting pitcher trades, so on paper it seems this strategy would work well, especially in this league.

I do understand though, if you do not want to overhaul a good-looking roster this late in the season. I'll leave the decision up to you.

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:11am (0) Comments

Friday, July 24, 2009

Waiver Wire: AL

Chris Getz | Chicago | 2B
YTD: ..262/.319/.361
True Talent: .254/.317/.349
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 3 Runs, 2 RBI, .252 BA, 0.6 SB
With Beckham's emergence, Contreras' Fountain of Youth, and now Buehrle's perfect game, it's easy to overlook that Chris Getz went almost a month (June 28 to July 21) hitting .400 (.400/.446/.620, 3-for-3 on SB attempts to boot). TT thinks he's already a bit over his head, and his advanced fielding stats are pretty lame (28th in BIS +/-), but his fielding reputation is good and his stats look a lot like Adam Kennedy's at the same age. His 87% Ct% should sustain his batting average. Good for AL Leagues.

Tommy Hunter | Texas | SP
YTD: 4.7 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 2.17 ERA
True Talent: 5.2 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 5.73 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 10.2 IP, 0.6 W, 6 K, 5.45 ERA
Two-time Junior Olympic judo champion Tommy Hunter would be a lot more interesting on another team, in a couple more years. As a pitcher, he resembles Joe Blanton, and not just in physique. His minor-league GB% (career) is almost 50%, but he's at 33% in the bigs. It wouldn't be surprising to see him settle in around Blanton's marks of 44% GB%, 5.5 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9. And his martial arts background suggests good durability, though he's been a six-inning starter so far. He wasn't very good in the minors this year before the promotion, so expect very little this year, especially in that ballpark.

Adam LaRoche | Boston | 1B
YTD: .292/.333/.407
True Talent: .262/.340/.470
Next Week Forecast: 0.7 HR, 2 Runs, 3 RBI, .263 BA, 0.1 SB
He's the big news in the AL this week, and it's sort of perplexing just how much dissing he gets around the web. He has a career 113 OPS+, and has hit a robust .296/.357/.544 in second halves of his career (1184 PA). Of course, the big question for fantasy players is how much PT he will get. Will Carroll cites a source saying work with Lowell is "going to be worth a lot of ink in journals,” by way of being optimistic. But we're thinking that teams with Lowell better handcuff themselves with LaRoche, too.

Sergio Mitre | New York | SP
YTD: 6.4 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 4.76 ERA
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
You may wonder how it is that a team like the Blue Jays can still be bringing up good pitching prospects, even after they've lost five rotation members to injury, while the Yankees—with boundless payroll—are stuck with … Sergio Mitre. Like the guy he's replacing (Wang), he gets tons of grounders (60% for career), and throws over 90 mph. The Yankee infielders have a good .793 RZR with 103 OOZ plays, so expect something like a 5.00 ERA/1.50 WHIP, good enough for wins with this killer offense and a place in AL leagues where the rate stats won't hurt you.

Ryan Rowland-Smith | Seattle | SP
YTD: 2.7 K/9, 0.3 K/BB, 0.00 ERA
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Rowland-Smith is a thoroughly unremarkable lefty “contact” pitcher with a career K:BB ratio of 1.79, FB% of 43.5%, and a fastball which averages under 90 MPH. And he's a must-play in AL Leagues! Why? The Mariners were built for this guy. Even last year, he had a fine 3.42 ERA in 118.1 IP. This year, the outfield defense is even better, with a staggering .955 team RZR and 181 OOZ plays, both tops in the AL.

Taylor Teagarden | Texas | C
YTD: .217/.267/.325
True Talent: .230/.314/.408
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 1 Runs 1 RBI, .226 BA, 0.1 SB
Teagarden is enigmatic. He's posted some otherworldly minor-league stats, but several peripherals have indicated they were more fluke than substance. The Rangers supposedly wouldn't consider trading him, yet he's been buried behind “Salty” this season, getting just 91 PA so far. Ron Washington has said he'll play more, supposedly to help avoid overheating in the hot Texas summer. In the minors, he hit lefties a lot harder, and would probably make a natural “strict” platoon situation with Salty, who hits RHP better. One of the league's best backup catchers for now.

Chris Tillman | Baltimore | SP
YTD: 9.2 K/9, 4.3 K/BB, 2.42 ERA (AAA)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Let's go outside the box a little bit here, since the O's pitchers are doing everything they can to stress the need for Chris Tillman's promotion. Some comments on last week's NL side about him can be summed up by noting: a) He's really good, and b) so are the AL East offenses. He has a reverse-split tendency (1.05 WHIP vsL, 1.32 vsR this year), much like the last great starter the O's had.

Michael Wuertz | Oakland | RP
YTD: 11.9 K/9, 4.7 K/BB, 2.72 ERA
True Talent: 9.2 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 3.68 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 Saves, 3.89 ERA
Wuertz always had good peripherals to go with his great slider. In 2009, he has ramped those up to the “great” range, with a robust 11.9 K/9 against just 2.5 BB/9. He's always used his slider to bore in on LHB, and this year it's giving them fits, as indicated by his 111/83 tOPS+ splits (R/L). He's scavenged up five wins, and while Bailey seems healthy, if anything should happen to him, there's little doubt now that Wuertz would close instead of Ziegler.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Rob McQuown at 2:00am (8) Comments

Waiver Wire: NL

Edwin Encarnacion | Cincinnati | 3B
YTD: .209/.341/.365
True Talent: .271/.355/.466
Next Week Forecast: 1.3 HR, 4 Runs, 5 RBI, .276 BA, 0.3 SB
You didn’t think Encarnacion would slug .365 the entire season, did you? Neither does True Talent. He was slowed by a wrist injury that held him to a .127/.286/.190 in April, but he's hit .308/.410/.577 since returning. Much of that was due to a recent hot streak against the Brewers when he hit .583/.688/1.083 in a four-game series. He’s always hurt the Brewers (.273/.355/.521 career); in the five games since that explosion, he’s hit .071/.316/.071. Still, his OBP shows he’s not falling apart, and he should continue to improve. That home run projection is awfully juicy, making Encarnacion a sweet pickup in many leagues. He’s likely off the table in NL-only leagues, but grab him if he’s not, along with mixed leagues deeper than 14 teams.

Seth Smith | Colorado | OF
YTD: .292/.395 /.489
True Talent: .284/.364/.470
Next Week Forecast: 0.7 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .286 BA, 0.3 SB
Colorado fans have been screaming for Tracy to give Smith the starting gig in left, but he wanted to give once-top prospect Carlos Gonzalez a shot first. Tracy finally agreed with the fans on Wednesday, naming Smith his starter after he’d hit .333/.353/.515 in eight straight starts. Smith has hit very well in the minors (.313/.379/.506) and has worked on refining his batting eye (.58 BB/K career in the minors, .65 in the majors in 2008, and .94 in 2009). His .80 contact rate in the majors (.82 in the minors) shows that his BA is strong, too. With a starting role, Smith becomes an instant add in all NL leagues and mixed leagues, as his True Talent OPS projects him in the top 30 of all OFs, with peripherals to match.

Ryan Hanigan | Cincinnati | C
YTD: .313/.406 /.375
True Talent: .268/.350/.367
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .273 BA, 0.1 SB
Ramon Hernandez is undergoing surgery to clean out his knee and will miss at least a month, making Hanigan the starter. True Talent shows how little power he offers, but that OBP tells you how strong his batting eye is, supported by his BB/K rate in the majors (1.24) and minors (.99). He spent six years in the minors, in part because of that light-hitting batting average, and his BA won’t hold up under full-time action. But he’s still going to hit well enough to make him a good option in 12-team NL-only leagues and for mixed leagues 24 teams and deeper, unless you're desperate for BA.

Troy Glaus | St. Louis | 3B/OF
YTD: N/A
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Glaus is already overdue from rehab on his January shoulder surgery, and a recent bout of back spasms suggests he’s not completely healthy just yet. Despite his fragility, Glaus has put up excellent numbers at the hot corner, like the .270/.372/.483 line he put up in 2008. The Cards have been trying him in the outfield at AAA, giving him position versatility and perhaps preventing further injury. If he comes back at the end of the month as planned, he could produce decent stats at a corner infield spot, as 3B has become a scarce position once again. Definitely stash him in your DL spot if you need the help and have the room, and pay close attention to how he stands up under everyday use; he may end up in a part-time role, at least at first. He’s not worth a pickup onto your active roster, but consider this a flag on him for you to watch him, especially if you’re in an NL-only league.

Jason Schmidt | Los Angeles | SP
YTD: 3.6 K/9, 0.7 K/BB, 5.40 ERA
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Another guy who gets attention because of his All-Star name, Schmidt hasn’t pitched since mid-2007, and even then, he didn’t do so well (1.4 HR/9, 4.9 BB/9, 6.31 ERA). The skills are there for him to continue to strike guys out—even in that poor 2007 showing, he managed 7.7 K/9—and he's shown some good signs he's regained some of his skills. In seven starts at two minor-league levels this year, his ratios (7.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 2.6 K/BB and 0.6 HR/9) are all strong, but not dominant. You’d like to see a guy ready to excel in the bigs dominate the minors, but he's ready for at least above-average performance. Deeper NL leagues can take a flyer on him right now, since pitching for the Dodgers will net even an average pitcher a few wins, and he’ll bring the Ks. The rest of us need to watch him for a start or two more, to see if his struggles in his 2009 debut were an adjustment to big-league talent, or an indication of diminished skills.

Tim Stauffer | San Diego | SP
YTD: 7.6 K/9, 3.7 K/BB, 2.08 ERA
True Talent: 5.5 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 6.28 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.0 IP, 0.3 Wins, 3 K, 5.87 ERA
It’s the time of the year for teams to gamble on prospects or guys returning from injury, and Stauffer is a little bit of both. The first-round pick of the Pads in 2003, Stauffer fessed up to some shoulder weakness after he was drafted, ultimately leading to the labrum surgery that's kept him out since 2007. He finally worked his way back this season and has started twice, putting up two quality starts without collecting a win. That’s the problem with the Padres, of course—the best pitchers still need an offense behind them to win. True Talent sees him slipping back, but don’t be surprised if Stauffer beats that projection, even if he’s not going to do it by the margins he’s got right now. All but the deepest of mixed leagues should take a pass on Stauffer for now, but NL-only leagues deeper than 12 teams can gamble on Stauffer to see if he can bring them moderate Ks and a handful of wins.

Jonathon Niese | New York | SP
YTD: 8.4 K/9, 5.0 K/BB, 5.91 ERA
True Talent: 6.4 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 5.12 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.1 IP, 0.3 Wins, 4 K, 5.55 ERA
It doesn’t take much to make the Mets rotation these days, not with names like Livan Hernandez (4.93 ERA, 4.7 K/9) and Oliver Perez (7.68 ERA, 8.8 BB/9) still taking regular turns on the bump. But Niese has the distinction of being the Mets' top pitching prospect, so he got the call when Fernando Nieve tore a leg muscle. The label got Niese promoted last season a little ahead of schedule, and he struggled in his first and third starts, while holding the Braves scoreless in between. This year in the minors, he's done a good job of cutting back his walks (2.5 BB/9) while still putting up some good strikeout numbers (7.8 K/9). His major-league success will depend on smart pitching, however, not strikeouts, as his stuff isn't overpowering. Being the Mets' best pitching prospect isn't that amazing an honor—his ceiling is as a mid-rotation starter—but he's still talented. So keeper leagues shouldn't overbid, but NL leagues deeper than 14 teams can do a lot worse on the waiver wire. All other leagues should give him another start or two before acting, but he should be on everyone's radar to see what he does.

Rick Vandenhurk | Florida | SP
YTD: 6.0 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 3.00 ERA
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Vandenhurk will be the Marlins’ fourth starter now that Andrew Miller has been demoted, and with good reason. In nine starts with Triple-A New Orleans, Vandenhurk had a 4-1 record, with a 2.77 ERA, 0.925 WHIP and extremely strong peripherals (7.6 K/9, 3.42 K/BB, 0.6 HR/9). He’s been in the majors twice before in the past two years, with good strikeout numbers (9.6 K/9) but poor control (1.76 K/BB) and a subpar 1.5 HR/9; these all dragged his ERA and WHIP down to 6.96 and 1.80. He did very well in his first start in 2009, and his breaking ball—a problem in the past—appears sharper and more accurate. He's nobody's prospect, but has enough ability for the Marlins to keep giving him chances, so they see something good in his stuff. Keep your expectations low in any league, but NL-only owners in 12-team leagues should find some good value in his Ks if he can maintain his control, while he's not worth much for mixed-league owners just yet.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am (6) Comments

End of days

Betting on the emergence of prospects can be frustrating—apart from such matters as the caliber of the guy above the prospect on the organizational chart, and the will of the parent club to avoid contractual triggers, there’s the question of whether the prospect’s approach in the minors will even translate to the majors. However, once a player reaches the majors and gets an extended audition, predicting when he’ll leave should be more straightforward.

We decided to explore this question. We wanted to find the level of performance at which fielders post their final season of consequence.

We gathered all seasons from 1990-2008 that may have been fantasy-relevant. We chose 300 AB as the minimum load for a potentially valuable season; that’s probably low, but we wanted to err on the side of too many seasons. In each season, we assigned players to the position where they played the most games. (If a player played two positions equally often, we qualified him at both.)

We then asked: What is the OPS for these players in the year before they disappear—i.e., in their final 300-AB season? We could have used a more sophisticated metric than OPS, such as wOBA or Predicted OPS, but we went with OPS for its simplicity and familiarity. (In truth, the question is not by what measure players should be deemed done but by what measure players are deemed done by major-league GM’s. For all we know, GM’s steer by BA....)

We expect that the onset of obscurity varies by the offensive demands put upon the player, so we grouped the results by position. Note that the only position that mattered was the batter’s position in his final 300-AB season; we did not track whether players were shifted from more defensively stringent positions.

Because 2009 is not in the books, we did not treat 2008 as anyone’s final season (there may be a few players who last played in 2007 but whose careers are not over, but they should not soil the analysis). We did include players who had just one 300-AB season (by definition, their last one).

Here are the results:

End of the Road
Position	OBP	SLG	OPS
1B	.350	.440	.790
3B	.325	.397	.722

2B	.326	.370	.696
SS	.311	.358	.669

LF	.339	.416	.755
CF	.326	.380	.706
RF	.336	.428	.764

C	.322	.390	.712
DH	.338	.439	.777

Note that these are aggregate levels; some batters had better numbers when they checked out and some had worse. And obviously, there are team-level considerations that we are missing, notably who (if anyone) is ready to take over. Still, the trends are as we would expect: The bar for further paychecks is high for first base and the corner outfield positions and lower for 2B, SS, CF, and C.

This is a sound starting point—when a player slips to this level, he (and you) should be scouting other opportunities. However, even better would be to say “For an OPS of X, a player’s chance of losing his job is Y.”

So let’s try that. For players who qualified at first base, we arranged all the player-seasons from highest to lowest OPS. We would expect to find many more “final destinations” at the bottom of the list than at the top, and indeed there are: Only one of the 25 top-rated seasons (4%) was a cul-de-sac, whereas 9 of the 25 bottom-rated seasons (36%) were.

Here is the graph for first base. The blue line is OPS, for non-overlapping buckets of 25 batters. The purple columns are the observed fade rate for each group; the thick black line is a trend line. (We say “fade rate,” not “extinction rate,” because the players might still putter around baseball; however, never again do they log 300 AB in a season.)

The trend line lolls around 5% for a while (even the best players are vulnerable to a career-ending injury). And then, starting around .850 OPS, fade rate rockets up, eventually surpassing 30% for the dregs of MLB first basemen. (The miracle might be that that rate is not higher; it may speak to the slow pipeline of talent within an organization.)

Armed with this chart, and knowing the OPS of a first baseman, we can now guess his chance of not attaining 300 AB next season. Here are the projected fade rates for the first basemen who are on pace for 300 AB this season:

Bailout Neediness, 1B
Player	YTD OPS	Fade Rate
Pujols	1.161	3.3%
Fielder	1.047	4.1%
Votto	1.034	4.2%
Morneau	.996	4.4%
Youkilis	.979	4.6%
Cabrera Mi	.947	4.9%
Branyan	.941	5.0%
Helton	.934	5.1%
Berkman	.932	5.1%
Teixeira	.916	5.3%
Gonzalez Ad	.910	5.4%
Morales K	.896	5.7%
Howard	.878	6.2%
Prado	.871	6.5%
Pena C	.866	6.7%
Lee D	.864	6.9%
Konerko	.858	7.2%
Overbay	.849	7.9%
Johnson N	.835	9.1%
Garko	.807	13.4%
Butler	.804	14.0%
Cantu	.775	19.4%
LaRoche Ad	.770	20.2%
Loney	.758	22.1%
Kotchman	.747	24.0%
Huff A	.732	26.0%
Ishikawa	.727	26.7%
Giambi	.697	29.3%
Davis C	.671	30.5%
Murphy Dan	.662	30.9%

There’s roughly a 50% chance that at least two of the bottom five players won’t be entertaining fans in 2010.

There is a lot of room to extend this study. The natural next variable would be age—it is possible that MLB owners are pokier with the pink slip for younger players than for older ones. We could also focus on base skills, such as contact rate and walk rate, rather than on surface stats. Still, this approach is fresh ground for figuring long-term worth, for fantasy and major-league GM’s alike.

Posted by John Burnson at 2:20am (3) Comments

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Trade deadline: A few bullpen situations to watch

MLB’s trading deadline is around the bend. How many times will obsessive fantasy junkies be checking Twitter for trade scoops this week?

Some leagues may be won and lost this week on the basis of the quickest waiver wire trigger finger. Will there be any major sources of saves to come into fantasy leagues over the next few days? Time to review some bullpen situations just in case…

Arizona: Chad Qualls has the job at the moment and he’s been absolutely solid. Unfortunately, the team is nearly out of contention, and reportedly at least a dozen teams have inquired about the Diamondbacks’ ace reliever. Earlier in the month, the team traded reliever Tony Pena to the White Sox. Pena probably figured to be Qualls’ replacement, but now that he’s gone, where would the team turn? The most logical candidate is Jon Rauch, who has closer experience and currently serves as the team’s eighth inning setup guy. However, Rauch has been positively dreadful this year with a slipping K/9 rate and borderline command. He’s been much more lucky of late than good, and it’s hard to figure he’d keep the job very long—if he gets it at all. Instead, deeper leagues may wish to roster Juan Guttierez (more impressive than his stats show) or Clay Zavada.

San Diego: The Padres have told teams they are open to hearing offers on Heath Bell, although supposedly, they have also told teams the price will be high to attain Bell. Many people have speculated that Edward Mujica would be Bell’s replacement, but Mujica has been inconsistent this year. A few too many fly balls and walks limits his ability to lock down the closer role. Meanwhile, the Padres bullpen is stuffed with more candidates, including Luke Gregerson (50 strikeouts in under 44 innings), Mike Adams (a 1.06 ERA and 0.76 WHIP since returning from DL), and Greg Burke (one of those closer-of-the-future guys). This has all the earmarks of a closer-by-committee.

Cincinnati: There have been mixed reports about whether the Reds are buyers or sellers at the deadline. If the team decided to sell its closer, Francisco Cordero, a number of teams would be interested. The team doesn’t have a clear-cut heir apparent. David Weathers is pitching eighth innings at the moment and has been very solid this season. However, Weathers will be 40 years old in September, and if the team wishes to think about next season and give a kid a shot, they could turn to Nick Masset, sporting an impressive 2.55 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.

Pittsburgh: The trade-aggressive Pirates seem inclined to trade Matt Capps. The closer has been terrible this year, so maybe the question should be why anybody would want him. Regardless, if Capps goes, the team would need to find a replacement. The most logical candidate is current setup guy John Grabow, but his 25 walks in 44 innings is hardly impressive. Our bet is that Joel Hanrahan might eventually end the season as he started the season—a closer. Hanrahan has good stuff but had underperformed his peripherals in Washington. As a Pirate, though, he’s got a 3.38 ERA. So far, so good.

Toronto: Last week, Scott Downs let up five earned runs in three innings, perhaps tamping down trade interest from other teams. However, he’s been solid most of the year and if the price is right, Toronto might very well dish him for a prospect. Jason Frasor would presumably pick up the job again, although he was shaky in the role when given the opportunity to fill in for an injured Downs earlier this season. Keep an eye on Brandon League, who has combined impressive strikeout ability with a great groundball rate. The team could always pick up a reliever in trade too, especially if Downs is part of a Roy Halladay deal.

Who else might go? Will there be deals that nobody anticipates?

I'll be posting fantasy analysis on breaking trades this week on Twitter @fantasyfix

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 1:03am (3) Comments

Fantasy Fallout: Garko heads to San Francisco

Garko is best described as solid, yet unspectacular. (Icon/SMI)

Last night the Indians and completed a deal, sending first baseman/outfielder Ryan Garko to the Giants for minor league pitcher Scott Barnes and a player to be named later. Let's look at the implications of this deal from a fantasy perspective, one concerned mostly about new playing time situations.

Fallout: Ryan Garko

This trade has a slightly positive effect on Garko. He played in almost all of Cleveland's games either at first or in the outfield, and should still receive most of the playing time at first base for the Giants. Garko will receive all of the playing time against left-handed starters, but may split some time with Giants current primary first baseman Travis Ishikawa when facing a righty. Overall though, at bats should come aplenty for Garko with his new team.

Leaving the AL and heading to the relatively easier NL West will help pad Garko's stats as he will be facing, in general, less skilled pitchers. This will only help him to a strong finish in what has been a bounce-back season for him after a forgettable 2008.

With his ability to hit for both average and power, Garko is a more than serviceable first baseman even in somewhat shallow leagues. In any league deeper than 12 teams mixed he should be owned, and I would consider adding him in a 12 team league if unowned. Not necessarily so much because this trade boosts his value, but because he was a fairly underappreciated fantasy commodity to begin with.

Fallout: Travis Ishikawa

The big loser in this trade is Giants first baseman Travis Ishikawa, who now will see most of his playing time taken away and given to Garko. Ishikawa was having a mediocre year, batting .269 with seven home runs and two steals in his first full major league season so his fantasy value was limited before the trade. Now he can effectively be dropped in almost all leagues and even his long-term value is ruined by the deal since Garko will be under team control through 2012.

At almost 26 years old, time is running out for Ishikawa to establish himself as a big league regular and this trade is no vote of confidence from the Giants front office.

Fallout: John Bowker

John Bowker, a player some were expecting to overtake Ishikawa and become a solid fantasy regular, is maybe hurt the most from the deal.

A couple of weeks ago Bowker was mashing in Triple-A to a .347 average with 17 home runs tune, and recently called up to the majors looking like he would win the first base job. Now fast forwarded to the present, after an 11 game major league audition in which he barely touched the ball, Bowker is back in the minors to continue working on his game. He is no youngster at 26, so time is running out for him to establish himself as well.

Fallout: The Indians infield

Space is now clearing up in the Indians infield and Andy Marte may now see some long-awaited at bats as he was called up from Triple-A where he was having his renaissance season. Struggling third baseman Jhonny Peralta is trying his hardest to prevent that from happening—going 10 for his last 17—but the Indians want to give Marte a shot.

Kelly Shoppach will receive more playing time at catcher since Victor Martinez figures to spend more time at first base, at least as long he does not get traded. You know my opinion of Shoppach. I have not heard the word on how Matt LaPorta will be handled through all of this, though overall the trade is positive news.

Stay patient, LaPorta owners.

Posted by Paul Singman at 2:02pm (2) Comments

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

The control hitters have over everything

A couple weeks ago, I wrote an article titled "The control hitters have over LD%," examining why it's a bad idea to use single-year line drive rates in any discussion of a hitter's underlying skills. Afterward, I received an e-mail from a reader who wanted me to go a step further:

Hi Derek,
I really enjoyed your post on the stability of LD% over time. It was very helpful to have the GB% correlation (.65) as a comparison. I want to encourage you to do a post at some point on the stability of a variety of common conventional and sabermetric stats; I fully understand the concept of looking for stable, repeatable skills but I have little idea what is stable and repeatable! For example, how stable is a player's walk rate? Strikeout rate? HR/FB rate?

Just a table of 20 of these stats would be really cool for perspective.

With that, here we go...

The results

As I said last time, this is far, far from a comprehensive study. For comparative purposes, though, it can be quite useful. Anyway, I looked at all hitters from 2004 through 2008 who amassed at least 350 at-bats in adjacent seasons (and played on the same team both years, to eliminate some park-to-park biases). What you're seeing is the R-squared results for each stat, which essentially tells us how much of the variation in Year 2 can be explained by the Year 1 figure.

+---------------------------+------+
| STAT                      | R2   |
+---------------------------+------+
| Batting Average           | 0.18 |
| On-Base Percentage        | 0.36 |
| Slugging Percentage       | 0.37 |
| OPS                       | 0.35 |
| ISO Power                 | 0.52 |
| ISO Discipline            | 0.60 |
| Batting Average with RISP | 0.06 |
+---------------------------+------+
| Contact (K) Rate          | 0.76 |
| Walk Rate                 | 0.61 |
| HBP Rate                  | 0.37 |
| Pitches per PA            | 0.61 |
+---------------------------+------+
| BABIP                     | 0.15 |
| 1B per BIP                | 0.21 |
| 2B per BIP                | 0.16 |
| 3B per BIP                | 0.26 |
| AB/HR                     | 0.42 |
| HR/FB                     | 0.59 |
| GIDP Rate                 | 0.13 |
+---------------------------+------+
| LD%                       | 0.09 |
| GB%                       | 0.60 |
| OF FB%                    | 0.52 |
| IF FB%                    | 0.43 |
+---------------------------+------+
| SBO%                      | 0.33 |
| SBA%                      | 0.80 |
| SB%                       | 0.10 |
+---------------------------+------+

Quick takeaways

As we always stress here at THT Fantasy, stats like batting average and BABIP are poor indicators of a player's actual skill. It's much better to focus on component skills like contact rate, which is one of the most stable stats around. Home runs are relatively stable, which might surprise some but really shouldn't—after all, Juan Pierre isn't going to start posting 30-home run seasons, nor is Ryan Howard going to hit only five home runs.

As we saw last time, line drive rate is very unstable, while the other batted ball stats are much more stable. And for those who like to blame hitters for being "unclutch" with runners in scoring position (I hear far too much of this from fellow Mets fans), check out no. 7 on the list.

Quick glossary

EDIT: I'm adding this late per request. Sorry for some things being a little unclear to begin with.

ISO Power: SLG-AVG
ISO Discipline: OBP-AVG
Contact (K) Rate: Contact rate on a per AB basis (not a per pitch basis). Calculated as (AB-K)/AB
HR/FB: Home runs per outfield fly ball
GIDP Rate: GIDP/BIP
LD%: Line drives as a percentage of all non-bunt balls in play
GB%: Groundballs as a percentage of all non-bunt balls in play
OF FB%: Outfield flies as a percentage of all non-bunt balls in play
IF FB%: Infield flies as a percentage of all non-bunt balls in play
SBO%: Stolen base opportunity rate. The percentage of times a hitter reaches first and thus is in position to attempt a steal. Calculated as (1B+BB+HBP-IBB)/TPA.
SBA%: Stolen base attempt rate. The percentage of times a hitter attempts a steal given that he is on first base. Calculated as (SB+CS)/(1B+BB+HBP-IBB).
SB%: Stolen base success rate. The percentage of times a hitter is successful on a steal attempt. Calculated as SB/(SB+CS).

Concluding thoughts

That's all for today. Any questions, feel free to comment or e-mail me!

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:08am (16) Comments

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Tuesday, July 21, 2009

The closer one night stand

He has pitched in how many consecutive games?

Potential problems

Concluding thoughts

Worst Monday: Balloting open

Thursday, July 23, 2009

What to Make of Brett Anderson and Other Prospect Notes

Roster Doctor

Friday, July 24, 2009

Waiver Wire: AL

Waiver Wire: NL

End of days

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Trade deadline: A few bullpen situations to watch

Fantasy Fallout: Garko heads to San Francisco

Fallout: Ryan Garko

Fallout: Travis Ishikawa

Fallout: John Bowker

Fallout: The Indians infield

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

The control hitters have over everything

The results

Quick takeaways

Quick glossary

Concluding thoughts