THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Matt Hagen at 2:22am (0) Comments

Roster Doctor

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

The owner of today's team is Jeff Zimmerman (also goes by TusconRoyal) a respected writer at Beyond the Boxscore and Driveline Mechanics so I'll be more than happy to take a look at his team and see what I can make of it. The settings:

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 14
Categories: Runs, RBI, OBP, SLG%, Net SB // Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, WHIP
Scoring: Rotisserie
Other notes: Daily updates, Non-keeper, no bench (BN) spots
Roster:

C - A.J. Pierzynski
C - Yadier Molina
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - Placido Polanco
3B - Russell Branyan
SS - Rafael Furcal
CI - Maicer Izturis
MI - Edgar Renteria
LF - Matt Holliday
CF - Curtis Granderson
RF - Denard Span
OF - Scott Podsednik
OF - Grady Sizemore
Util - Adam Kennedy

SP - Joba Chamberlain
SP - Carlos Villanueva
SP - Dan Meyer
SP - Alfredo Aceves
SP - Aaron Poreda
RP - Francisco Cordero
RP - Dan Wheeler
RP - David Aardsma
RP - Jose Valverde
P - Leo Nunez
P - Mark DiFelice
DL - Hong-Chih Kuo

Jeff sent over the full standings of his league so I know he is last in OBP, Wins, and Strikeouts, and tied for second-to-last in SLG%. He is in 10th place with 66.5 points (that number may have changed in the days since his submission) and the leader currently has 106.5 points. He also recently made a trade he termed "unfair yet necessary" that was Brian Fuentes for Span with him receiving Span—one I agree was a good deal given his team's situation.

Let me start off by saying this: You have literally zero percent chance of winning this league. You can, however, give a good show for the final two months and greatly improve your position in the standings. And your hitting, despite the Span trade, needs to be further improved.

My suggestion is to trade starter Joba Chamberlain for as big a hitter as he will command. Since he is riding the coattails of two great back-to-back starts his value should be peaking, making this a great time to trade him. Having seen him live for one of those two starts and having watching part of the other on television, I know that a lot of his outs were on hot-shot ground balls and line drives that luckily were hit directly at fielders. That luck, as you know, will not continue.

Joba is still a good pitcher, but is not the type you need when pitching at his more probable 4.20 ERA self. You should be looking to get guys who can go late in games, increasing their chance of getting the win and racking up strikeouts. Considering your league is without a maximum innings pitched limit, I would stockpile some more starters and even consider streaming fringe starters when they are facing poor offenses.

Ian Snell, Luke Hochevar, Chris Tillman, and Jason Hammel all make good speculative adds if unowned, and I would be willing to drop some of your weaker pitchers like Villanueva, Poreda (now in the minors) and Dan Wheeler to add these guys. Although it may hurt your pristine ERA and WHIP to an extent, the reward of climbing the wins and strikeout categories will be greater if you make smart moves.

The hitter you receive in return for Joba can be of any position, since the new player can fill the Util spot with Kennedy moved over to MI, replacing Renteria. Even before a trade gets done I would drop Renteria for almost anyone, though Delwyn Young or Christian Guzman would be preferred additions.

The last type of move I would consider would be moving Podsednik to a team more desperate for steals. Depending on what you can get in return compared to the estimated stolen base loss, acquiring a more powerful outfielder like Jonny Gomes may increase your point total in several categories.

With at least some of the moves I suggested implemented, hopefully your team will gain some ground in the categories you are really lacking in without losing too much in the ones you are currently doing well in. For some people it is either first or nothing, but for others finishing in fifth is better than in one of the last spots. If you are in the latter group, let's see how far your team can climb.

Posted by Paul Singman at 3:14am (5) Comments

Dump trades and free markets

As an American, I take free markets as seriously as apple pie and baseball. Though some treat free markets dogmatically and think they're always better than the alternatives, most of us prefer to think of markets (free or not) as a means to some ends. What really matters to us is whether we get the health care, the cars, the television shows that we want (loosely speaking). Often times we think that a free market is the best way (or at least just as good as any other way) to ensure that people get what they want. Just as often, we recognize that at least some regulation makes society better—think of anti-trust protections against monopolies.

When it comes to fantasy baseball, there are many commentators and experts that despise the trade veto. They say (paraphrasing), "If two consenting adults think that a trade makes each of them better off, who are we to impose our judgment? Variety in tastes and in player forecasts makes fantasy baseball fun and interesting. Vive la free market." By and large, they are correct. But of course, nobody argues for a completely free market. Everyone, for instance, thinks that a trade should be blocked if two teams collude to enable one team to win.

In other words, we all believe that some regulation in fantasy baseball is good, the question is really just how much. Whereas most believe a trade should be blocked only in the case of collusion or cheating, I believe that there are other (albeit rare) trades that can be rightfully blocked. Dump trades, where a team that is not going to win this year trades its high value players for good keepers, are prime candidates for the veto.

Let's first dispel a myth: a trade between two players is not like consensual activity in the bedroom in the privacy of one's own house. A trade always affects the competitive balance of the entire league (even if only slightly). If a trade totally upsets the balance of the league, a veto may be warranted. Sometimes free markets hurt competition (an economist would say there are externalities in trading market).

Now let's go through some trade scenarios where no one is cheating but a veto could be appropriate.

An owner (let's call him Ralph Wiggum) is new to the league. The first week after the draft, Ralph decides that he doesn't have his favorite player on his team. He trades Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard to Bart's team in order to get Carlos Beltran. Why a veto is warranted: This trade is clearly one-sided and it is seems like Ralph isn't playing to win. It would make the league much less competitive if the trade were to go through.

A team decides to play for next year. Your league only allows one player with rookie eligibility to be kept. The team trades all of his best players to one of the leading teams in exchange for Chris Tillman, the player that this team thinks is the best rookie.

Why a veto is warranted: In this case, since the team is out of it, the owner is willing to pay any price to get the best keeper. If that owner wants Tillman, there is no offer from any other team (besides the one that owns Tillman) that could compete. Why not give up Pujols and Hanley Ramirez to get Tillman? But this dump trade makes the league much less competitive this year. Obviously, the problem here is the keeper rule (more on that in another article), but rather than try and change a faulty keeper rule mid-season, it may just be better to block these kinds of trades.

OK. So all trades change the competitive balance and some extreme ones clearly distort it so much that a veto is called for. But how much is too much? This is a judgment call. Like many others, I would err on the liberal side and be inclined to allow the trade unless it is grotesque. Nevertheless, these kinds of trades are proposed in leagues and they can ruin a beautiful season.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 4:07am (16) Comments

Friday, July 31, 2009

Waiver Wire: AL

Carlos Carrasco | Cleveland | SP
YTD: 8.8 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 5.18 ERA (AAA)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Pitchers who allow bad “luck” numbers (.330 BABIP and 13% HR/FB% for Carrasco '09) in the minors often do so because they are short on talent, unlike their MLB counterparts. But, as BA's Prospect Handbook puts it, “scouts rave about [his] pure stuff.” Obviously, there is a lot of uncertainty when projecting pitchers, but there is a lot of reason to be optimistic here, as he's just 22 at Triple-A, has been durable, is striking out almost nine per nine innings, and has improved his always-sharp control to an excellent 3.0 BB/9 rate. If the potent Indians offense isn't dismantled, he could be very good in AL leagues as soon as this season.

Justin Duchscherer | Oakland | SP
YTD: 6.0 K/9, 2.8 K/BB, 2.54 ERA (2008 stats)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Nothing before 2008 prepared us for Duchscherer's amazing 141.2 inning season, which was driven by a .235 BABIP. He was a very-high quality setup man for years, so it was known that he could get batters out, and perhaps the injury is the price he paid for stretching it out. He's a flyball pitcher, and so his BABIP should remain lower than .300, but expectations need to be level-set at an ERA level over 3.00. The park and defense will help him post excellent ratios, as they are helping all the kids in the A's rotation. But as with the A's other pitchers, don't expect run support or long outings. In fact, there are strong rumors circulating that he'll be back in the bullpen when he returns this season.

Tommy Everidge | Oakland | 1B
YTD: .338/.402/.552 (AA-AAA)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Who? Silently snuck into the Oakland lineup when Daric Barton went on the DL, Everidge led the Texas League in RBIs (115) in 2008, but was ancient for a Double-A prospect (25), and struck out too much for that level. Oakland was so unimpressed that he started 2009 in Double-A again. Cutting down his swing, he cut his strikeouts dramatically and earned a promotion to Triple-A, where he hit a crazy .382/.432/.636 before getting the call. Obviously, anyone who sees Triple-A for the first time at age 26 is more suspect than prospect, but our estimate is that Everidge gets two to three weeks to catch lightning in a bottle and do his best Garrett Jones impersonation before the revolving door pushes him out of the picture, perhaps forever.

Aaron Laffey | Cleveland | SP
YTD: 5.0 K/9, 1.1 K/BB, 4.40 ERA
True Talent: 4.9 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 4.51 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 11.2 IP, 0.7 W, 6 K, 4.83
Just 24, Aaron Laffey has quietly stuck around for 200.1 innings in three seasons. How his 13-12 4.36/1.423 career stats should be interpreted is open to debate. His FIP is remarkably similar to his ERA (4.32). But his xFIP has been around 5.0 since the start of 2008, due to very “lucky” HR/FB ratios. He's not a groundball pitcher, but suffocates the running game (runners are 4-of-5 on SB attempts, career). The Cleveland defense, with Asdrubal at shortstop and Crowe in left field should help him post or better the solid True Talent numbers shown. That makes him a good AL-only play and an occasional mixed-league starter—at least against the likes of Seattle.

Lou Marson | Cleveland | C
YTD: .235/.350/.294
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
This author's MLP system shows Marson being a .232/.344/.350 hitter in his prime. He reportedly has a weak throwing arm, but calls a good game and is agile. With mega-prospect Carlos Santana getting his licks at Double-A this year (.397 OBP/.536 SLG, 31% CS), it's hard to envision a scenario where Marson has much of a starting role in Cleveland.

Michael Saunders | Seattle | OF
YTD: .211/.211/.211
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Despite raves about his prospect status, Saunders didn't post particularly outstanding stats until 2009. While recent history has shown some disappointing Tacoma-to-Seattle transitions, for a 22-year-old to post a .310/.378/.544 in that not-so-great hitting environment is very impressive. In a keeper league, he's a fine power prospect despite his home park. The question for redraft leagues is always what a guy will do NOW. There's really no reason to expect him to move seemlessly into the majors, so expect mediocre 2009 stats, improving gradually.

Brett Wallace | Oakland | 1B
YTD: .235/.350/.294
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Not quite blowing away the MLP system, Wallace's typical prime years performance is still good enough to rate starting at first base. Billy Beane has apparently realized that yes, indeed, pitching and defense win games. So, don't expect the A's to stretch Wallace by playing him at third base long term. The issue here is that the A's have a crowd at first base: the epiphany that is Tommy Everidge, the previous first baseman acquired from St. Louis (Daric Barton), Sean Doolittle and Travis Buck. We think he'll rise above this crowd, but without some curve-busting growth, don't expect a premier hitter.

Jack Wilson | Seattle | SS
YTD: .267/.304/.387
True Talent: .272/.318/.382
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .273 BA, 0.2 SB
He doesn't hit for much batting average. He doesn't steal. The new ballpark will again limit his power. But still, the atmosphere in Seattle is upbeat and the things Wilson does well (defense) are highly regarded. Wilson has had only one completely heathy season (2004), and hit a respectable .308/.335/.459. It would be folly to assume another .333 BABIP season from him, as his career mark is just .294. But good health and a positive environment should allow him to meet those weekly forecast numbers (based on an optimisic 95 percent playing time expectation).

Orioles Bullpen:

Jim Johnson | Baltimore | RP
YTD: 6.5 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 3.17 ERA
True Talent: 5.8 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4.03 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 1.3 Saves, 3.92 ERA
Often not a great attribute for a sinkerballer (55 percent groundball rate career), Jim Johnson has added significantly to his fastball velocity over the past two years, and is bringing the heat at over 94 mph, on average, in 2009. That explains the 1.0 increase K/9 he's added over his 5.5 career rate. He's improved his walk rate (under 3.0 now), too. The combination has pushed his K/BB ratio over the 2.0 mark, a good benchmark for closer-worthiness. Expect him to be announced as the primary closer, or at least to become the de facto head of a committee.

Chris Ray | Baltimore | RP
YTD: 9.7 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 9.28 ERA
True Talent: 8.0 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 4.96 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 Saves, 4.70 ERA
Chris Ray throws hard, strikes out hitters (8.5 K/9 career), doesn't walk a ton of guys (4.0 BB/9 career), but gives up lots of fly balls, and a disproportionate percentage of HR's on them. His dominance in Triple-A after being demoted shows that he's probably fully healthy, though. And, as a feast-or-famine guy in a pen without an alpha dog, he has the possibility to go from a 9.00 ERA to holding the closer's bone with surprising quickness, maybe as soon as in August. Don't pay a lot for the possibility, though—as closers go, he's still a mutt.

Danys Baez (reprise) | Baltimore | RP
YTD: 5.0 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.41 ERA
True Talent: 5.4 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 4.61 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 Saves, 4.49 ERA
Since we last visited Baez, his BABIP has gone up (as predicted) from .192 to .237. Some of that's natural and some due to glove wiz Cesar Izturis missing time, as Baez is still generating grounders 60 percent of the time. There's a lot of fan discontent with Baez, but opposing hitters are still hitting an anemic .228/.296/.353 against him this year. Something has to give, because if he keeps holding hitters to that line, the ERA will come down significantly. But don't expect his 41-save season in '05 to open doors for many saves, he's still on the outside looking in.

Cla Meredith | Baltimore | RP
YTD: 5.0 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 3.89 ERA
True Talent: 6.0 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 3.55 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 Saves, 3.92 ERA
Cla Meredith is not only the most extreme groundballer on this staff (and annually in competition for most extreme in MLB), but also the favorite of “True Talent” among the O's relievers. With his delivery, he's been much more effective against right-handed batters, though the +10 IBB vsL magnify the actual difference, so it's not as bad as the .378 to .293 OBP difference suggests. As with other extreme groundball pitchers, Meredith will likely be used before the ninth inning in GDP situations as often as Trembley can arrange it. Expect an occasional save here and there.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Rob McQuown at 2:00am (7) Comments

Waiver Wire: NL

Bud Norris | Houston | SP
YTD: 12.0 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 3.00 ERA
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Baseball America called Norris the Astros' No. 2 prospect, and he's earned that label in 2009, putting up some nice ratios (8.4 K/9, 2.11 K/BB, 2.62 ERA) for Triple-A Round Rock. He needs to control his walks (4.0 BB/9), but otherwise he's been one of Houston's best minor-league arms this year. When Oswalt strained his back this week, the Astros called up Norris to start in his place. It now looks like Oswalt might not miss a start, but Houston released Russ Ortiz Thursday, so Norris could slide into that rotation spot instead.

Whatever happens, Norris should be up to stay and get regular work, but his value is obviously higher as a starter. Keeper leagues should be all over Norris, while NL-only teams deeper than 10 teams could make him a speculative pickup. With 120 innings in the minors already, he won't see heavy usage down the stretch, but should offer strikeouts and a good shot at some wins.

Julio Lugo | St. Louis | SS
YTD: .306/.365/.440
True Talent: .264/.331/.369
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .266 BA, 0.8 SB
Forgotten among the Holliday trade, Lugo may ultimately be just as important to the Cards, at least defensively. He gives them a solid glove up the middle, but what fantasy owners are interested in are his offensive skills, which aren't significant. He's been on fire since joining St. Louis, hitting .400/.423/.760 in his first five games, though that's clearly not going to continue. His days of double-digit steals and cracking a .400 SLG are past, so he's going to slip slowly into the west, but he's got a bit of value in a strong Cardinals lineup. Ride him in the short term if you dare, but he's best suited for NL leagues with 14 teams and deeper.

Ryan Garko | San Francisco | 1B
YTD: .280/.358/.455
True Talent: .274/.348/.441
Next Week Forecast: 1.0 HR, 3 Runs, 4 RBI, .278 BA, 0.0 SB
I've followed the Giants' spinning Wheel of 1B Fortune in this column, and the trade for Garko indicates he's currently The Man at first. You might think he'd be on the short end of a platoon with lefty Ishikawa, but San Francisco didn't trade prospect Scott Barnes for a player who's going to hit a third of the time. Expect Garko to see action against all left-handed pitchers and a good chunk of right-handed pitchers, boosting his value considerably. Paul Singman sees him as a good add for 12-team mixed or deeper league, but I'm not quite that optimistic. True Talent pegs him as the 17th-best NL 1B in OPS; that and a shared playing time situation makes him rosterable for 12-team NL leagues and mixed leagues deeper than 15 teams.

Jon Garland | Arizona | SP
YTD: 4.0 K/9, 1.3 K/BB, 4.42 ERA
True Talent: 4.4 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4.62 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 Wins, 3 K, 4.54 ERA
Garland's overall numbers this year haven't been stellar, but he's on a nice run, with quality starts in 7 of his last 8 starts, and a 2.92 ERA. The problem is, the anemic Arizona offense hasn't supported him enough, and he's only won twice in that stretch. True Talent shows you he's not going to offer much in the way of strikeouts, and his ERA could rise a tad. He's one of the Diamondbacks starters who's on the trading block, but any deal is likely to come after the deadline, but playing for a better team could be just the thing to boost his value. Unless and until that happens, he's best suited for NL-only leagues deeper than 10 teams, or the deepest of mixed leagues; in either league, he might help your ERA, but not much else.

Ronny Cedeno | Pittsburgh | SS
YTD: .167/.213/.290
True Talent: .253/.302/.378
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .253 BA, 0.4 SB
Looking at Pittsburgh's various acquisitions, you'd think Cedeno would be penciled in at starting shortstop, but Pittsburgh fans—and fantasy owners—hope that's not the case. Not only is it a mistake to start a relative veteran on a team in the middle of a youth movement, Cedeno's put up an unimpressive .238/.276/.339 line in his five MLB seasons. He's decent enough with the glove, but has no business wielding a bat for either the Pirates or your fantasy team. There's no reason to expect him to improve suddenly in Pittsburgh's lineup, one of the few offenses in MLB that might be weaker than Seattle's. The slight rebound that would bring him up to True Talent levels is still only good enough to make him a worthy shortstop in 18-team NL-only leagues; he's not the pickup you want in the Pittsburgh infield.

Delwyn Young | Pittsburgh | 2B/OF
YTD: .316/.381/.427
True Talent: .276/.337/.435
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .277 BA, 0.1 SB
The Pirates' roster dump opened up opportunities for both middle infielders and outfielders, and Delwyn Young would fit either spot. He could get a long look at second base, depending on how soon Pittsburgh gives up on Cedeno and shifts Vazquez over to short. With six games at second under his belt already, Young qualifies at that spot in some leagues, which is what counts for fantasy owners, whether he ends up playing there full-time or not. What's key is his overall playing time, and he should be getting a good chunk of time somewhere on the field, though his power potential makes him best for in one of your MI slots. He's performing very close to True Talent levels, a good sign that he should retain his value as a MI in 10-team NL leagues or 14-team mixed leagues.

Ramon Vazquez | Pittsburgh | SS
YTD: .237/.346/.275
True Talent: .254/.337/.371
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 1 Runs, 1 RBI, .256 BA, 0.0 SB
Ignore the OPS that Vazquez put up in Texas last year, which was almost entirely due to his red-hot first half. Instead, see him for what he is: a guy who's going to produce adequate numbers at short, while qualifying at 2B and possibly 3B, too. The Pirates are going to play him in one of those spots most of the time; that Next Week Forecast was created before the trade removed the competition in front of him. He's got value mostly as an NL-only SS, where he's a good play in 12-team or deeper leagues. Much deeper mixed-league teams can take him if they must—his OPS is only 22nd best among all MLB shortstops.

Mike Adams | San Diego | RP
YTD: 10.0 K/9, 6.7 K/BB, 1.00 ERA
True Talent: 8.5 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 3.25 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 Saves, 3.15 ERA
The big deal that everyone's waiting for is a swap for Heath Bell, which would open the Padres' closing job up, probably for Adams. Those eye-popping ratios Adams has put up so far have been over just 18 innings, so they're clearly going to drop. But he's still going to maintain some nice secondary stats, which is why he'd slide nicely into that endgame role. It's a gamble as to whether Bell gets traded, but Adams is still going to help your ratios either way. Since he's coming back from labrum surgery, the Padres have worked him carefully, gradually increasing his workload with no ill effects. If anything, he's been getting better, with 12 strikeouts in his last 6.1 innings. A trade makes him an instant pickup in all leagues, but any league that counts holds should also consider him for their roster. Those strong secondary ratios and an ERA projected to be in the top 10 among NL relievers means even a speculative pickup won't burn you.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am (6) Comments

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Thursday, July 30, 2009

Former top pitching prospects revisited