THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Matt Hagen at 3:07am (0) Comments

Friday, October 02, 2009

Waiver Wire: AL 2009 Hits and Misses

Some “hits” and “misses” in this season of Heater-sponsored Waiver Wire columns...

First off, Heater writers really know their stuff. A site recently computed RMSEs for various pre-season prediction systems, and so I went back and looked at the Heater writers predictions from the last preseason issue, and the RMSE came out at 9.51, which was better than anything except the CAIRO system (9.30), and significantly better than any human-based prediction (though the betting Over/Under lines weren't bad at all. Those casinos know how to make money!). The usually-strong PECOTA system clocked in at 11.49, virtually the same as if you projected an 81-81 season for each team. Maybe considering the “human input” on guys like Wieters, Guzman, and Gerut would have helped some, because PECOTA is a great system usually. The THT system was excellent, as expected, at 9.86, though with Marcel at 9.77 this year, it's hard for anyone to beat their chest too much.

So, what do we have for individual player predictions made weekly here at THT? We started Waiver Wire on May 1, making for five months of predictions (though September predictions are probably too recent to evaluate at all). Most of the “hits” and “misses” will be from the earlier predictions, as there's been more time to see how accurate they were:

Hits:

8) July 17:
Magglio Ordonez | Detroit | OF
YTD: .260/.330/.343
True Talent: .294/.359/.449
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 2 Runs 2 RBI, .292 BA, 0.1 SB
Fans have collectively “forgotten” what typical aging curves look like thanks to PEDs, and Maggs is of an age when many in the past have collapsed. But ... we're guessing the manipulative Jim Leyland is tearing him down and platooning him to “inspire” him. He's an exceptional “buy-low” candidate now, though obviously high-risk. He has a career Ct% of almost 88%, giving him one of the better combinations of contact and power in the game.

This looks even better this week, as “Maggs” is killing off the Twins. As expected, he was quickly back into a significant role after this was written, and hit .356/.421/.500 in 202 PA from July 17 onward.

7) May 1:
Russ Branyan | Seattle | 1B/3B
YTD: .333/.415/.614
True Talent: .243/.339/.485
Next Week Forecast: 1.0 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, .252 BA, 0.2 SB
Seattle used to have “Big Richie” Sexson, now they have Russell “Paul Bunyan” Branyan. There has never been much difference (other than batting side) between the two. Branyan’s five-hit game against Danks should maintain him in the lineup against LHP, so it's safe to count on more than the projected stats. Just don’t panic when Branyan goes into an 0-for-25-with-12-strikeouts slump. Because he will.

It wasn't quite 0-for-25, but Branyan did in fact post a 12-for-73 (with 27 K) stretch. Worse for those of us who had him on a team, he got injured. His actual stats from May 1 onward? .238/.337/.505. Score one for True Talent!

6) June 12:
Scott Podsednik | Chicago | OF
YTD: .296/.353/.387
True Talent: .266/.328/.358
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 2 R, 1 RBI, .261 BA, 0.8 SB
2005 postseason hero “Scotty Pods” is back on the South Side! How thoughtful of the team to leave the lead-off spot “vacant” until he returned. Ozzie will have tough decisions when Quentin is back, since even when Pods regresses, they need him leading off (never thought we'd say that...). Expect a 25-SB pace and batting stats better than his “True Talent,” since Podsednik will be rested (and also get to avoid the toughest LHP).

Sort of a bold prediction, since Podsednik was out of baseball when Kenny Williams signed him to a minor-league contract. He's hit .304/.351/.415 in 412 PA since June 12, with 21 SB, exceeding even our optimism.

5) June 19:
Jason Frasor | Toronto | RP
YTD: 7.2 K/9, 6.3 K/BB, 1.90 ERA
True Talent: 8.0 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 3.39 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 1.5 Saves, 3.52 ERA
Listed at 5-9, Jason Frasor has probably earned significantly less money in his career than if the same 95-plus heater and nasty slider came in a larger package. But hitters know about him (8+ career K/9), and his righty presence in the mostly gauche Blue Jays pen is perfect in a complementary role. But Cito rewards good play, not size of pitcher or size of contract, so Frasor should get the biggest share of the saves “pie,” at least until Downs' toe is healed. And we'd call him 1-in-3 to keep getting the most saves even after that.

The Jays are calling it 50-50 now for 2010, so perhaps even 1-in-3 was pessimistic, though it seemed bold at the time. Frasor has allowed a tiny batting line of .219/.293/.304 against him since June 19.

4) July 17:
Brian Bannister | Kansas City | SP
YTD: 5.7 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 3.66 ERA
True Talent: 5.3 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.61 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.2 IP, 0.3 W, 3 K, 4.83 ERA
Bannister won lots of Internet fans a couple years ago by using BABIP in a sentence, and people were wondering if he'd figured out a way to suppress his below that of a typical pitcher with his mediocre peripherals. He's at it again in 2009, but we think that he's due for some rough times. His career second-half stats are awful (5.37 ERA, .285/.341/.491 against), he doesn't strike out many, and he has the Royals' popgun barrage “supporting” him. Consider him only for one-day pickups against A's and M's.

Not much to say here. Bannister is a dog of a pitcher, and though every dog has his day, we try to avoid them.

3) July 24:
Ryan Rowland-Smith | Seattle | SP
YTD: 2.7 K/9, 0.3 K/BB, 0.00 ERA
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Rowland-Smith is a thoroughly unremarkable lefty “contact” pitcher with a career K:BB ratio of 1.79, FB% of 43.5%, and a fastball that averages under 90 mph. And he's a must-play in AL Leagues! Why? The Mariners were built for this guy. Even last year, he had a fine 3.42 ERA in 118.1 IP. This year, the outfield defense is even better, with a staggering .955 team RZR and 181 OOZ plays, both tops in the AL.

This is the sort of pitching advice we like to provide. When a synergy of assorted factors combine to make a less-talented guy a good play, players can be had at a relative bargain. “RRS” only went 4-4 since this was published, and had a 4.04 ERA (not great), but he did have a great 1.14 WHIP, with 47 K in 86.1 IP.

2) August 7:
Adrian Beltre | Seattle | 3B
YTD: .254/.285/365
True Talent: .262/.308/.415
Next Week Forecast: 0.6 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .253 BA, 0.6 SB
As with other third basemen with “bad wings” (Chavez, Rolen, etc.), there's a huge concern about whether Beltre's power will return, limiting the team's deadline options, and a yellow flag for fantasy teams. Still, he's a career .270/.325/.455 hitter, and has actually been stealing bases. For his career, he's hit just .249/.304/.405 in Safeco, as is to be expected for a righty power bat. The everyday role makes him valuable in AL-only leagues, but not very.

We also feel good when we can warn owners off of a guy with “name” value who looks like he's going to struggle, as with Adrian Beltre upon his return. He has hit .262/.328/.361, which qualifies as “not very” in our books.

1) May 15:
Andrew Bailey | Oakland | RP
YTD: 10.5 K/9, 3.7 K/BB, 1.61 ERA
True Talent: 7.5 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 4.55 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.7 saves, 7 games, 4.59 ERA
In the California and Texas Leagues the past two years, Andrew Bailey has been used primarily as a starter, and a rigorous projection system like “True Talent” weighs his good-but-not-great numbers in those years. However, the 6-foot-3, 235-pound fireballer has lately stepped into a relief role like it’s his calling. The main reason that Bailey is not already closing for Oakland is so that the A’s can squeeze more innings out of him. Pick him up now, and even if he doesn’t help you immediately in saves, he’ll help you in ERA and WHIP. “Ziggy” owners, beware!

If the worst “miss” can be a closer, so can one of the best “hits.” Who would have guessed that the Angels would arguably have the weakest closer situation in the AL West entering 2010?

Misses:

6) June 19:
David Huff | Cleveland | SP
YTD: 5.7 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 7.09 ERA
True Talent: 6.6 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 4.97 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 11.2 IP, 0.7 Wins, 9 K, 4.73 ERA
2006 first-round pick David Huff didn't enter the Indians rotation with the fanfare of some other top prospects this year, largely because his fastball tops out around 92. And while we disapprove of throwing out data, his ERA is 4.44 if you write off his first two starts as “debut jitters.” He's not ready to make anyone forget CC Sabathia, but if he's spotted intelligently, he should be good for some across-the-board help in AL-only leagues.

Um, it sounded good at the time? Oddly, his ERA has been in line with TT (5.10 since June 19), but even that low is a fluke (and we were expecting better), as he's struck out just 44 while walking 29 and allowing nine HR in 95.1 IP. The 117 hits allowed have generated a .300/.347/.459 batting line against. He's been 9-6, so he hasn't been an “across-the-board” failure, just nearly so.

5) May 1:
Josh Anderson | Detroit | OF
YTD: .341/.386/.463
True Talent: .283/.332/.380
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .288 BA, 1.0 SB
Anderson's True Talent isn't so much different from Jacoby Ellsbury's, and Anderson has a ton of speed. Leyland wants Anderson’s glove in the lineup, so he should keep getting substantial playing time even when Thames returns, which could be two more months. Being unestablished, Anderson could play his way back to the bench, but it seems unlikely. He's no .350 hitter, but he could keep stealing two bases per week.

Well, his True Talent prediction is down to .272/.317/.360, but still far better than his actual stats since May 1 (.222/.256/.276) between his two teams. The only thing we got right here was the speed, as he's chipped in 19 SB—not two SB/wk, but he's only played 50%.

4) July 3:
Andy Sonnanstine | Tampa Bay | SP
YTD: 5.5 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 6.61 ERA
True Talent: 5.6 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 5.22 ERA
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Sonnanstine is an example of how fine the line is for pitchers ... the combination of two games started at the New Yankee Bandbox, some bad luck (BABIP up 18 points from '08, HR/FB of 15%), and slightly worse control (1.7 BB/9 up to 2.4 BB/9) ... and suddenly he's back in Triple-A. He should still be the same pitcher when he returns; about 90% as good as he showed in 2008. Hear that, Omar Minaya?

Anyone who read this back in July—and needed a starting pitcher in September when Sonnanstine was called up again—had to be cursing our column. Andy's line in six games (three starts) was an awful 0-2, 7.94, with just nine strikeouts. He even lost control of the strike zone, walking 11 in 17.0 IP.

3) August 14:
Derek Holland | Texas | SP
YTD: 7.5 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 5.04 ERA
True Talent: 6.8 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 5.90 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 4.2 IP, 0.2 W, 4 K, 6.36 ERA
Over at Baseball Daily Digest, I had some observations on the Rangers leading the league in run prevention this season. Part of the reason is that they appear to be intent on keeping their talented pitchers. Holland's fastball averages 93 mph this year. He's still a young pitcher with a crappy home park, so fatigue may wear him down, but for a guy who was expected to begin the year in Double-A to have allowed a batting line of just .190/.272/.306 in the past month is impressive, even if starts against Seattle, Oakland, and KC are in there. Expect hiccups, but this guy is for real. Don't be surprised if his ERA is almost two points under that TT projection the remainder.

With as great as Texas' pitching turnaround has been this year, and as skeptical as we've been here about it, it's surprising that the biggest clear “miss” on their staff is on the negative side. We were lukewarm on Tommy Hunter (likening him to Joe Blanton pitching in texas) and that seemed like it would be a miss, but his ERA has been 4.83 since he was reviewed. Holland, on the other hand, has been downright miserable since Aug. 14: 3-6, 8.18 ERA, 31 K, 17 BB, 12 (yes, 12) HR in 47.1 IP. Batting line against of .321/.382/.592, which could bat cleanup for almost any team.

2) July 17:
Alex Gordon | Kansas City | 3B
YTD: .095/.269/.238
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Seemingly everyone wrote a “who to get” article about players who would do well in the second half. Well, here's the guy. If he's on a roster, don't hesitate to trade for him. The ugly stat line (in just 26 PA) is friendly for a good trade price. With Inge, Rolen, Crede, and Teahen playing over their heads, 3B doesn't seem like a shallow position, but Lowell is dinged, Beltre out, and DeRosa gone. The aforementioned overperformers should decline, and Gordon could vie for fifth-best behind Longoria, A-Rod, Figgins and Young.

It's roughly three times as humbling to be dead wrong on a hitter as on a pitcher, since they are so much more predictable, usually. And it's no consolation to know that others are still fanatically high on his potential—it was a bad call; he hit .242/.327/.348 the rest of the way, getting into just 39 games. Sure, there were reasons, such as his health, but those same warning flags were there at the time of his recall, and were ignored.

1) May 8:
David Aardsma | Seattle | RP
YTD: 8.0 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 4.40 ERA
True Talent: 8.2 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 4.20 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 saves, 4.45 ERA
In the grand tradition of Don “Full Pack” Stanhouse and Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams, David Aardsma will need a nickname if he keeps closing. “BB-rdsma” doesn't quite cut it, but at least it's truth-in-advertising, as Aardsma has walked 98 men in 157 career innings. With Morrow returning this weekend, the window for Aardsma closing appears to be closing, in spite of Shawn Kelly's injury. However, Morrow's diabetes and injury concerns could easily net Aardsma another 5-10 saves this season. OK if you can stand the hit to your WHIP.

Next to the Garrett Jones quips in the “Comments” section on the NL side, this is clearly the worst miss of the season for this author. Nothing much to say here, other than sometimes guys with good stuff find the strike zone, and then LOOK OUT. Putz had a similar transformation in Seattle, and both pitchers vaulted from questionable to among the elite closers. Predicting the timing of such gold strikes is virtually impossible, which is why active roto owners pick up all such candidates ASAP.

Posted by Rob McQuown at 6:00am

Waiver Wire: NL 2009 Hits and Misses

As the 2009 season winds down, it's time to look at the NL Waiver Wire recommendations I've made this year to check out the Hits and Misses in my prognostications. I was pleased to see that most of my calls were good ones, with caution advised when appropriate, along with stronger recommendations to pick up good guys and leave the ugly ones on the wire.

I wasn't as good as True Talent, the predictive system you'll find only in Heater Magazine, which typically was spot-on in telling you who'd succeed and who wouldn't, even for guys with minimal major-league experience. To take a random example, Eugenio Velez's True Talent line of .266/.314/.398 almost exactly nailed his actual .266/.310/.408 line—and he's not alone.

John Burnson's great stat work often made me look like a genius, as you'll see in the "Hits" below, counting up from No. 5 to No. 1. Now and then, either True Talent or my own instincts steered me wrong, and you'll read about those in the "Misses," arranged from near-miss to worst miss.

Additionally, I invite the THT readers out there to share their own stories of success or failure based on the Waiver Wire columns. Did we help you win your league with that one crucial HR? Blow your lead in SB? We only get better when you let us know how we're doing, so feel free to comment, and I look forward to the offseason, 2010 season (and beyond) with THT Fantasy!

Misses

5) Mike MacDougal | Washington | CL
YTD: 5.4 K/9, 0.8 K/BB, 4.42 ERA
True Talent: 7.9 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4.18 ERA
Performance Since Column: 4.9 K/9, 0.8 K/BB, 4.29 ERA, 18 Saves
This is a little Hit, a little Miss, but it's mostly a Miss. I said in my June 12 column that MacDougal "can throw strikes—he just doesn’t know when they’re coming" and that he was suitable for "any team that needs saves without strong ratios." That much was right. But True Talent was way off on strikes and K/BB, just as I was wrong in saying "he's a short-term pickup" and that "Manny Acta has hinted he won't be closing for long." I didn't expect him to outlast his manager, and nobody saw his whacked ratios, let alone how they'd translate into a half-decent ERA.

Most importantly, I didn't advocate strongly enough to pick up a closer who's still closing games more than three months later, and that's why this is a Miss. That MacDougal did so without striking batters out doesn't matter; he got the job done, blowing just one save in 19 chances, and that can easily make the difference in the fantasy standings for your team.

4) Chris Snyder | Arizona | C
YTD: .200/.353/.332
True Talent: .250/.354/.442
Performance Since Column: .147/.272/.221 in 20 starts
On May 29, I said Snyder had grabbed the D-backs' starting backstop job and that he'd "continue to gain ground on Montero, particularly since he’s added a career-best batting eye of .84 BB/K to his power. If he can hold his plate discipline gains, he’ll beat that True Talent OPS. ... Grab this guy in 8+ team NL leagues and all 10+ team leagues." Well, he didn't come close to True Talent or my expectations, but I've got a legitimate excuse here. Snyder lost a month to back problems, a problem that would lead to season-ending back surgery in late August. Now it looks like Snyder, whose massive $17.25M contract extension through 2012 makes him untradeable until he proves himself healthy, will be Montero's hugely overpaid backup.

It's hard to predict injuries, and there were a few other guys who missed the mark because they got hurt, but I was way off here, particularly in my exuberance about the urgency of grabbing Snyder. At least I got Montero right a few weeks later, as you'll read below.

3) Joel Pineiro | St. Louis | SP
YTD: 4.3 K/9, 3.9 K/BB, 3.44 ERA
True Talent: 4.9 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.78 ERA
Performance Since Column: 4.7 K/9, 4.75 K/BB, 3.40 ERA, 14-13 record
When I reviewed Joel Pineiro on May 1, I said, "His ERA exceeds his expected ERA by almost a full run, and those peripherals (1.0 K/BB, 2.1 K/9) are awful. ... Don’t expect much more than a few extra luck-inspired wins, very few Ks and a sub-par ERA." To my credit, I didn't say he'd be awful, and a lot of forecasters got Piniero wrong. True Talent slightly undershot his expected Ks, and who would have thought Pineiro would lead all of baseball with 1.1 BB/9? That's where he got that gaudy BB/K ratio, and how he beat ERA expectations by almost a run and a half. He also tossed two shutouts (tied for the NL lead), and gave his owners 21 Quality Starts in 31 outings, for an overall record of 15-12.

This wasn't the worst Miss in the world, but I wouldn't have picked Pineiro up based on my own recommendations—as, in fact, I didn't, not in any of my leagues that count QS. And as a further hedge to my Miss here, I'll add that Pineiro has slowed down significantly in September, with a 2-3 record, 4.0 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, and 4.93 ERA in six starts. But Miss it was.

2) Garrett Jones | Pittsburgh | OF
YTD: .297/.374/.581
True Talent: .245/.303/.421
Performance Since Column: .297/.377/.569, 18 HR, 19 2B, 40 RBI in 70 games.
I don't feel as bad about this pick since reading Mike Silver's excellent column on Jones, calling him "among the most confusing players in fantasy baseball." But on July 10, I said Jones was "worth a short-term flyer in NL-only leagues, and all owners should watch to see if his hot start continues." Which sounds nice out of context, and I'll freely admit I was hedging my bets, but most of my writeup focused on his long time in the minors, his strikeouts, and his problems against LHP. And True Talent was similarly pessimistic, so we both got a Miss here.

All in all, it wasn't the worst recommendation, but I was pretty tepid about someone who went on to produce at amazing levels. And, as regular readers know, I continued to advocate against his ability to maintain his production levels in comments after future columns. I missed the boat on Jones pretty badly, and if you were following my advice, you probably did, too.

1) Milton Bradley | Chicago | OF
YTD: .257/.378/.397
True Talent: .280/.390/.479
Performance Since Column: .280/.383/.429, 6 HR, 19 RBI, 51 games, 1 suspension
What was I thinking? What was True Talent thinking? What were the Cubs thinking? Like TT and Chicago ownership, I couldn't believe that Bradley would continue to stink up the joint as much as he had. And, if you look at his performance since my July 17 column, he actually did improve over his .243/.379/.381 line at the time. But my final recommendation was pretty inflexible: "If you've got a spot, stash him; if you own him, wait if you can; if you need an OF, watch him. He's coming around."

He came around a little, and his final line came close to the OBP projections of True Talent, but it's doubtful that any reader expected his SLG to lose almost 100 points. I said "he's not a .760 OPS hitter" and I was right on there—he finished with a .775 OPS. My writeup was positive and pumped him up, and his minor improvement didn't merit that sort of enthusiasm. Though I also dabbled on predicting guys like Barry Zito and Mike Hampton, and did well there, my mistake was trying to scrutinize the inscrutable Milton Bradley. A big Miss here.

Hits

5) John Smoltz | St. Louis | SP/RP
YTD: 8.4 K/9, 4.1 K/BB, 6.35 ERA
True Talent: 7.8 K/9, 3.4 K/BB, 4.04 ERA
Performance Since Column: 9.5 K/9, 4.4 K/BB, 4.26 ERA
Very few people thought that Smoltz would do much with St. Louis after bombing in Boston, but I pointed out on Aug. 21 that "his secondary ratios were about in line with TT predictions. Now that he's back in the NL, on a competitive team with a strong defense, he's definitely going to improve in ERA and wins." I recommended him as "definitely worth a gamble for a handful of wins and Ks in any league." Not the strongest recommendation in the world, and I did note that his risky age and health meant you shouldn't "expect him to blow the doors off in ERA or IP." True Talent did a good job everywhere but his ERA, which is bloated from all that trouble he had in the AL. Smoltz proved me right with five innings of three-hit ball two days later, with nine Ks and no walks. He then reeled off three quality starts in his next six outings, though St. Louis couldn't give him any wins.

Smoltz wasn't amazing, but he was solid, and I give myself the Hit here because of my contrarian stance—few other folks wanted to stick their necks out for Smoltzie, and I did. Owners who followed my advice reaped the reward, albeit a winless one.

4) Seth Smith | Colorado | OF
YTD: .293/.380/.511
True Talent: .284/.364/.470
Performance Since Column: .296/.363/.539 7 HR, 27 RBI
Smith was hitting .292/.395/.489 when I wrote about him on July 24, noting that Tracy named him the starter, making him "an instant add in all NL leagues and mixed leagues, as his True Talent OPS projects him in the top 30 of all OFs, with peripherals to match." Tracy backtracked a bit when Gonzalez got hot, but Smith still started 36 times in 52 games since my column and continued to produce. My strong recommendation was definitely a Hit here.

Smith did better across the board than True Talent expected, which is what happens when a guy with strong contact skills keeps improving his batting eye, as I'd noted in that column. Colorado won the wild card thanks to guys like Smith—hopefully he helped your team in similar fashion.

3) Leo Nunez | Florida | RP
YTD: 7.8 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 4.12 ERA, 25 SV
True Talent: 7.3 K/9 2.1 K/BB 3.68 ERA
Performance Since Column: 7.8 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 4.23 ERA, 23 SV
Because of a goof in my record-keeping, I actually covered Nunez twice, but I'm going to look at the first recommendation on June 12, when Nunez was far from the closer candidate he became two weeks later. He'd mopped up a few times for Lindstrom, but manager Gonzalez insisted that there was no change at the back of his bullpen. I pointed out Lindstrom's 7.0 BB/9, and called Nunez "mandatory Lindstrom insurance and a strong roster addition for NL-only teams and any deep league where you’re speculating on saves."

Speculators who heeded my advice got the results above, with 23 saves that hopefully helped you in your fantasy pennant race, once Nunez became the closer and hasn't let the job go since. True Talent was right on in estimating Nunez's control, very close in strikeout rate, and close to that slippery ERA mark. Nobody who got those saves is going to quibble about the .44 ERA difference, nor in the scant three Ks that the different K/9 projection translates to.

2) Carlos Gonzalez | Colorado | OF
YTD: .285/.353/.533
True Talent: .264/.312/.421
Performance Since Column: .283/.358/.519, 8 SB, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 23 R
CarGo also got two writeups from me, but I'm focusing on the later one this time, because it was more emphatic, unlike the wishy-washy June 12 column, which noted "every owner should watch to see if this talent finally arrives." It took Gonzalez a little longer to prove himself, but on Aug. 21, I wrote him up again. In that column, I pointed out the difference in his .289/.350/.547 YTD line and True Talent's predictions, noting "the truth is somewhere in between; let's not forget that Gonzalez was once a top prospect, and he may have finally figured it out." I reminded readers of his superior numbers outside of Coors, and called him "a must-add for all NL leagues and 10-team mixed leagues in the short term, and those in keeper leagues should strongly consider holding onto him even after he cools off."

As you can see, he didn't cool off, and his numbers slipped a bit, but not as low as TT said, so those keeper owners (along with everyone else) should still have him in their lineups. True Talent shot a bit low on his final lines, an easy thing to do for a guy who'd shown so little ability in his big-league ABs up to now. Despite this, I gave him a strong thumbs-up, and I hope that THT readers followed that advice.

1) Miguel Montero | Arizona | C
YTD: .299/.357/.487
True Talent: .254/.334/.421
Performance Since Column: .308/.358/.497 7 HR, 30 RBI
On June 23, the D-backs put Chris Snyder on the DL, and my June 26 column advised, "True Talent tells you Montero will improve his power, and NL owners should certainly take notice of this opportunity to pick him up. He's worth a roster spot in 8-team NL leagues and mixed leagues deeper than 12 teams." I don't mind pointing out that Montero did even better than expected—you might call understatement a Miss, but I'm counting this as a Hit, especially since I noted that "he might hang onto the starting role" if he continues to impress, which he did; he's now the starter in AZ, undoubtedly into 2010.

Trying to get value from the catcher's spot is difficult, particularly in midseason. Getting this kind of production from a backstop who hits in the middle of the Arizona order is a difference-maker. I'm betting Montero affected the balance of power (literally) in quite a few fantasy pennant races, and I'd like to think I had a small part in that.

Thanks again to all you THT readers for reading and commenting, and I invite you again to comment below. Any other Hits or Misses you want to point out? Did the naysayers at the beginning of the year feel like we turned it around? Is there another aspect to the stats or writeups you'd like to see?

THT has the smartest, most articulate readers of any fantasy Website, and I welcome your thoughts and comments below. Thanks again for a great season, and I look forward to many more!

True Talent Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Michael Street at 6:10am

Monday, October 05, 2009

Clone Wars: Javier Vazquez and Matt Cain

Javier Vazqeuz has been one of the most interesting studies in sabermetrics throughout his career. He breaks all the ERA predictors by consistently having a higher ERA than his FIP, xFIP, tRA or DIPS expect. His ERA has been higher than his FIP in eight of 12 major league seasons, posting a career FIP of 3.83 and ERA of 4.19. On the other end is Matt Cain who consistently beats expectations by maintaining a very low HR/FB% year after year. This year was his highest at 8%, yet he had his best full season yet.

Name              W-L    ERA   K/9  BB/9  K/BB  BABIP  LOB%  GB%    HR/FB%
Javier Vazquez    15-10  2.87  9.77 1.81  5.41  .297   76.6% 41.7%  10.1%
Matt Cain         14-8   2.89  7.07 3.02  2.34  .268   81.6% 38.9%  8.4%

Javier Vazquez

MLB: AUG 4 Braves at Padres
4 AUG 2009: Javier Vazquez of the Atlanta Braves during a game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in San Diego, CA. (Icon/SMI)

I have looked into Vazquez before as his numbers always draw attention. He has continually drawn bad luck against his FIP especially once he went to the AL. The last time I looked at him was back in April and found he had a large change in K/BB while pitching from the stretch. In 2008 his K/BB went from 3.94 with the bases empty to a 2.43 with runners in scoring position. In his career it went from 4.10 with the bases empty to a 2.07 with runners in scoring position.

He also played for some poor defenses recently and had BABIP numbers of .284, .311, .321, .297, .328 while with the Yankees, Diamondbacks and White Sox from 2004-08. His career BABIP still stands at .309. This all helps explain why he has struggled against his FIP, but what has happened this year?

Well he still has a significant split in his work from the stretch. His K/BB with the bases empty is 6.21, but with runners in scoring position he has a 4.25. That is much better from the stretch than any season and surely has something to do with playing in the National League and facing the opposing pitcher. This has led his numbers to match up much better as his ERA stands only 0.1 higher than his FIP.

Matt Cain

For years Cain has been listed as a potential pitcher to fall as his xFIP was consistently higher than his ERA. His HR/FB rate has been 7.1% or lower for 3 years and has only crept up to 8.4% this year. This has to do with playing in the NL West. Pitching in San Francisco, San Diego, Los Angeles for a large number of your games will do that.

His strikeout rate has taken a hit this year with his K/9 down to 7.07. Offsetting that is his walk rate falling to a career low of 3.02, and his K/BB is a career best 2.34. This is still not that great for a pitcher with a 38.9% groundball rate. His career BABIP is .278 and down to .268 this season. This is partly due to a team defense that has ranked in the top 10 in MLB for the past four years.

While his overall numbers don't match that of a great pitcher, he has the ability to maintain solid numbers as long as he stays in the NL West. He has another year left on his contract with the Giants and a 2011 option for $6.25 million. This could be an issue next year as his value to trade will start to decrease, but the Giants could just as well keep him through the end of his deal. If he was moved, he stands to suffer an increase in homers against and an increase in BABIP.

Conclusion

Both of these pitchers are staring at the reality of regression to the mean next year, but they both have history of being solid pitchers. They will be overvalued for sure, but Javier Vazquez is definately the better and safer pitcher to choose. There has been talk he could be expendable to the Braves if they bring back Tim Hudson next year. I find it extremely unlikely that the Braves will let a pitcher with a K/BB over 5 go, but he is entering the last year of a contract that guarantees him $11.5 million. His biggest downside would be a return to the AL, but Cain would be a downgrade going to any team outside the NL West.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 2:01am

Beware he who has little to lose

When I was offered this writing job, I told myself that I would try to stay away from posting self-indulgent anecdotes about experiences in my own leagues. Ah, the best laid plans… In actuality, I had a revelation on the second-to-last day of the season in my head-to-head league that I found interesting and also touches on some of the larger debates in the fantasy baseball world. So, I’m going to share it here, for purposes of establishing the context for the larger point.

I’m in the finals of a head-to-head (non-keeper) league and facing the league's most hyperactive manager. Naturally, at season’s end there is even more motivation than normal to spot start and manipulate your roster for short-term gain. Thus his managerial style has become a caricature of itself, but strategically so.

I knew how he was going to manage the finals, and I tried to take the advice I always give. Be flexible and opportunistic; force him to commit to a paradigm before I do. So, for the first week I picked up a fair amount of attractive spot-starting match-ups, but did not overindulge. The idea was to keep myself in contention in the counting stats and control the rate stats. I accomplished that goal, and did so well enough to put me in a difficult position.

Not surprisingly, as I write this on Saturday morning, I am ahead in the rate stats and trailing in wins (and saves). However, there is one dynamic I did not expect. I actually enjoy a small lead in Ks (thank you, Ricky Nolasco) but have fallen behind in K/BB. My opponent had a full slate of starters for Saturday and Sunday. Even though I am losing the overall match-up, I’ve chosen not to protect the K lead, as I think he is goading me to risk my rate stats. Instead, I’m hoping his cadre of bottom-of-the-barrel starters causes him to give back the K/BB category. Ostensibly, I’m hoping to trade the K point for the K/BB point, which would leave the pitching match-up at 3-3 and put the overall battle in the hands of the offenses, neither of which have really shown up by the way.

The most questionable element of my strategy is that I am voluntarily relinquishing control of a category, in favor of betting on my opponent’s self destruction. He just has too many innings coming to him for me to match, so I don’t think I can win playing his game, at least not without severely risking two other categories in the process. Will it work? I guess I’ll know by the time this column runs.

The revelation I referred to earlier is really not some foreign concept. It’s simply the idea that he with less to lose is more dangerous. Whoever was losing the rate stats in this battle actually controlled the dynamic of the whole match-up because rates are the only categories you ever have to “protect.” You don’t protect leads in counting categories so much as you keep up with, or outpace your opponent. With games, innings or at-bats, counting stats will come; they can never be less than they were before, they can only grow at an insufficient rate. My opponent does not have to think as much as I do, his strategy is simple - pick up as many pitchers as he can and try to make the best choices available.

Over the long term, he can’t act this way to this degree. However, the end of the season removes the opportunity cost from dropping quality players for immediate stats. I can’t keep up with his level of activity if I am concerned about protecting the rates, which is why even though I happen to be leading in Ks, I’ve identified a category I’m currently losing as a more viable category to actually win.

This particular experience has drawn me toward the conclusion that while it is preferable to invest in quality pitching throughout the season (with an eye toward opportunism); it is wise to invest in counting stats down the stretch in head-to-head leagues. The tenets underlying this theory are manifold.

The first important point is that over weekly scoring periods quality often takes care of quantity without trying. Better pitchers will amass more wins and more Ks. It takes fewer good pitchers to amass the same number of strikeouts as several poor pitchers. The opportunity cost of committing too heavily to the revolving-door roster strategy is enough of a stick to prevent an opponent from jumping over the edge. In the playoffs, it’s win or go home, so a manager has more incentive to ramp up the hyperactivity to the point that it is hard to compete against without his opponent adopting that strategy, at least to some degree.

A second factor is that small sample size enables the possibility of a manager not being heavily penalized for running out a parade of subpar pitchers. While over the course of the season a manager who does this will suffer horribly in the rate stats, in one playoff series it’s entirely possible to get a good run of performances from inferior players. Or, conversely, it’s quite possible that a series of good pitchers perform poorly over one playoff week.

The conclusion of my not-so-novel revelation seems to be that when you eliminate long-term security from the equation, chasing counting stats is the wiser strategy, and it allows you to dictate the dynamic of a head-to-head series.

The larger question this situation brings forth is that of regulation in fantasy baseball. Namely, should moves be limited?

Normally, I’m a libertarian on these matters (highly ironic for those who know me personally). I’m against limiting moves. I’m against distinguishing pitching roster spots between starters and relievers, and so forth. But, it does appear that full deregulation of transactions skews the incentive to invest in what are otherwise equally valuable categories during the most important time of the season. Is that a problem? I’m not sure.

During the offseason, I plan to write several pieces dealing with overarching strategy and models of league construction. To limit moves or not will certainly be one issue I explore.

But, for now, I ask the readership two questions. What say you about investing in counting stats versus rate stats down the stretch in head-to-head leagues? And, if the conclusion in this piece is true, is that a viable argument for limiting moves in head-to-head leagues?

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 2:02am

THTF fantasy glory: Championships and top finishes

The 2009 fantasy baseball season officially came to a close in many formats last night, leaving a select few owners dousing themselves in coolers of Gatorade (I swear, I'm actually going to do this one of these years) and leaving many others to simply wait for next year. For THT Fantasy, there's a good deal of celebrating in our virtual office today.

LABR NL — 1st place — Derek Carty (13 teams)
Along with Tout Wars, LABR is one of the top two expert fantasy competitions in the world. In 2009, yours truly is bringing home the trophy (or ring, actually... I bought myself a championship ring to most effectively gloat each time I see one of my fellow participants). In addition to simply winning, this championship makes me the youngest person to ever win a major expert league competition.

I'm especially proud because most have called this one of the toughest LABR fields ever with the likes of Baseball HQ's Ron Shandler, ESPN's Nate Ravitz and Tristan Cockcroft, Rotoworld's Rick Wolf and Glenn Colton, Baseball Prospectus' Clay Davenport, USA Today's Steve Gardner, Yahoo!'s Brandon Funston, and several other top competitors. It truly was an All-Star field. Back in March, there were 11 LABR and Tout championships sitting in the draft room with me. They should all still be there next year, but the funny thing is, the target will now be on my back.

Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge (FSIC) — 2nd place — Derek Carty and Paul Singman (12 teams)
We were in 1st just 10 or 12 days ago, but our team fell flat in the final week. Still, a quality finish against some good competition from FantasyBaseball.com, Fanball, SportingNews, and several others. Perhaps the saying "You can't win a league in the early rounds, but you can lose it" is true. Paul and I were unlucky enough to pick Jose Reyes and Garrett Atkins 1-2. Considering, I think a finish likes ours is pretty good.

Razzball League — 2nd place — Jonathan Halket (90 teams)
This league wasn't strictly for experts but, rather, followed the NFBC style of massive amounts of teams, including representatives from ESPN, FanGraphs, Fanball, FantasyPros911, Beyond the Boxscore, MVN, and Razzball (of course), among others. Terrific showing in a huge field, Jonathan.

KFFL Expert League — 3rd place — Derek Carty and Eriq Gardner (12 teams)
Really competitive league that came down to the wire. We were in first entering the week, but this team also fell flat in the final days. No shortage of competition, though, as participants included LABR commish Steve Gardner, KFFL's own Nick Minnix and Tim Heaney, and reps from Baseball HQ, Baseball Prospectus, CREATiVESPORTS, RotoExperts, and FantasyPros911, among others. Eriq and I actually ended up making 204 transactions throughout the course of the season.

Yahoo! Friends & Family League — 4th place — Paul Singman (14 teams)
Our own Paul Singman was tied for second on Saturday, but just barely got edged out at the last minute. There are some big names here, including Yahoo!'s big four of Funston, Behrens, Evans, and Pianowski as well as Tout Wars vets Jeff Erickson (Rotowire), Chris Liss (Rotowire), Mike Salfino (SNY), and several other industry guys.

Concluding thoughts

Overall, I think it was a very good showing for THTF in expert leagues this season. As you know, we've expanded very quickly, going from just one full-time writer (me) at the end of last season to a staff of 12 terrific guys today. For me, to see our guys have the opportunity to participate against such tough competition — and what's more, to see these kind of results — in what really is the early going of the site, is something I'm very proud of.

Thanks to all of the great writers I now have the privilege of working with and even more thanks to all of the readers who have helped make THTF what it is today — and who will help it continue to grow. Hopefully we were able to help you win your own fantasy leagues this year and will be able to help you again in 2010. If you have any stories you'd like to share, I'd love to hear them. Any suggestions for what you'd like to see from us going forward, I'd love to hear those too.

Unrelated — Where have I been?

For those wondering where I've been lately, worry not, I'll be back soon. I'm currently in Arizona participating in the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program (aka Scout School). I'll be back and ready to write in another week or so.

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:59pm

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

The whole is greater than the sum of the parts

They do not stand out in any one category, but these players contribute in all categories. Who are the players that offer the most consistently adequate production across the board, yet do not display flashing skills in any one of the five fantasy categories? I've taken a look at the 2009 season numbers to find these players—these kings of above-averageness.

Methodology

I started with an arbitrary threshold of 400 plate appearances. Yeah, I hate those too, but I've got to draw the line somewhere on what constitutes playing almost a full season. That left me with 222 players who amassed 400 PAs in 2009. Then I ranked the players number 1 through 222 in the five main hitting categories, I'm sure you know what they are—runs, home runs, RBI, steals, and batting average.

Anyone in the bottom 50 percent in any category got thrown out, and anyone in the top 25 percent of any category was tossed as well.

After first eliminating players by their run totals, I was left with 60 players, ranging from a slew of players with 72 runs just inside the top 50% to Skip Schumaker, Justin Morneau and Franklin Gutierrez, whose 86 runs were just outside the top 25%. For players with 400 plate appearances, Geoff Blum and Cesar Izturis got the fewest runs, with 34 each. They get eight runs per 100 PAs, compared to Albert Pujols, who gets 18 runs per 100 of his plate appearances.

Next the players outside the 25-50 percent range in home runs were dropped, leaving 15 players remaining. Hanley Ramirez headed a group of seven players with 24 home runs who were the first outside the top 25%. At least 15 home runs were required to be in the top half of home run hitters. Only one player with 400 plate appearances did not hit a home run in 2009, and not surprisingly that player was Juan Pierre.

Everyone's favorite stat, RBI, was next. Required to be in the range was between 86 and 66 RBI. Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard continued their slugging ways in 2009, tying for the league lead with 141. Willy Taveras and his .259 wOBA accrued an astounding 15 RBI. Despite that total, he did not have the largest discrepancy between his run and RBI totals—that title belongs to Michael Bourn with his 97 runs and 35 RBI.

You guessed it, stolen bases are next. Less than 15 steals and more than five steals were the stipulations, and 60 players met them. Exactly 25 players with the required 400 PAs got zero steals in 2009, and 63 percent of players were in the single digits in steals totals.

Finally I came to batting average—a little weary at this point—but nevertheless managed to determine a .294 to .274 batting average were within the 25-50 percent range. The difference between the league-leader in batting average, Joe Mauer and his .364 average, and the league-laggard, Jason Varitek and his .209 average, is .155 points of average. Over 442 at-bats (which is the average of Mauer and Varitek's at-bats) that difference equates to 69 hits. Yes, a lot.

Results

Now for the question that should be on everyone's mind: Has any player made it through all five cuts? The answer, thankfully, is yes. In fact two players have survived, one is Adam Jones and the other is Jeff Francoeur. Here is what these two player's stat lines looked like this year:

+----------------+----+----+-----+----+-------+
| Name           | R  | HR | RBI | SB | AVG   |
+----------------+----+----+-----+----+-------+
| Adam Jones     | 83 | 19 |  70 | 10 | 0.277 |
| Jeff Francoeur | 72 | 15 |  76 |  6 | 0.280 |
+----------------+----+----+-----+----+-------+

Interestingly Jones' and Francoeur's seasons followed opposite paths. Jones kicked off the season hot and finished May as one of the best hitters in baseball. From that point on, however, he cooled off significantly until his season ended in early September because of an ankle injury.

Conversely Francoeur got off to a slow start with Atlanta, at midseason was traded to the rival Mets in the swap for Ryan Church, and then proceeded to have his best two months of the season—August and September—in New York.

It is not my intention to draw any type of conclusions about these two players, like whether they are over- or under-valued. Generalizations of the sort are usually better handled on a case-by-case basis. What probably is true about these type of players is that they have slightly lower fade rates because they have multiple skills to fall back on if one falters.

And for those interested, the next closest player was Mike Cameron, who would have made the cut were it not for his .250 batting average. Oh well.

Posted by Paul Singman at 6:00am

Thursday, October 08, 2009

Me: Postmortem roster doctor

I should have sat him, too. (Icon/SMI)

This year I got walloped in my home league—the second year out of four that I've finished further down than I'd have liked. Thankfully, I finished at the top last year, so I don't feel like a total schlum. What went wrong this year? I was desultory in RBIs and runs and mediocre in WHIP and ERA almost from the get-go. It is a 12-team league with BA, runs, RBIs, HR, SO/BB and SB on the batting side and K, WHIP, ERA, W-L, S and HD on the pitching side.

I had the 12th pick in the draft. Here were my picks, in order: Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Brandon Phillips, Vladimir Guerrero, Curtis Granderson, Chipper Jones, Jay Bruce, Joakim Soria, B.J. Ryan, Derek Lowe, Yovani Gallardo, Aaron Harang, Milton Bradley, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson, Mike Pelfrey, Jason Isringhausen, Clayton Kershaw, Jim Thome, Trevor Hoffman.

I later picked up the likes of Fernando Rodney, Jed Lowrie and Jarrod Saltalamacchia during the reserve draft.

There are some doozies in my draft. I'm happy with Kershaw in the 18th, Hoffman in the 20th and Cain in the 14th. I expected good things from Gallardo and wasn't disappointed. If Lowe and Harang had pitched anywhere close to my expectations, I should have been fine, even with the risky Johnson and Pelfrey.

Alas, Harang looks like he has become a Dusty Baker special. I followed some of his games and it always seemed like he'd have one bad inning and then pitch really well for the rest of the game. More often than not it was the other way around: He'd be pitching well, reach about 100 pitches and Baker would leave him in long enough to get worked over in the late innings.

I ended up having a fairly solid closer core with Hoffman, Rodney and Soria. I would later trade Rodney in the second half. I was hoping that Isringhausen and Ryan would get a shot at closing in Tampa and Toronto, respectively. But if they didn't, I also hoped that they would at least be decent setup men and garner some holds for me. Obviously picking Ryan that early (or really at all) was incredible folly.

As the draft was progressing, I realized that I wasn't going to get any particularly interesting shortstop or catcher, but I also saw that by the mid-teen rounds, all my competitors had drafted at those positions already. So I mentally targeted Elvis Andrus and A.J. Pierzynski for the late, late rounds. As it happened, two teams swooped in to pick them up as backups literally just a couple of picks before I was going to, leaving me in a real bind. My hope was that my consolation picks—Lowrie and Saltalamacchia—would at least give me something by virtue of being on strong offensive teams. Saltalamacchia also had a bit of upside potential. Nevertheless, I had two big holes in my offense. Thankfully, my hole at shortstop would lead me to pick up Ben Zobrist early on.

I had a lot of power in my lineup. I was second in home runs for most of the first half of the season. At the same time, I was last in runs and RBIs—a juxtaposition that is hard to achieve. Bradley's inconsistency and Guerrero's injury quickly opened more holes in my lineup. Bruce would hit 22 home runs in 345 at bats, but yield only 47 runs and 58 RBIs. Jones' 2009 season wasn't half as good as his 2008.

So, while I got reliable performances from four out of my first five picks and picked up a dynamo in Zobrist, I still lacked competitive production from my third baseman and two (out of four) outfield spots. Since I had Thome as my DH, I had no suitable backups either.

Hindsight is always better, but what lessons can I draw from this year? If I had one pick to do over, it would be the Ryan pick at the end of the ninth round. I think I might have been trying to rush to the bathroom or something at that point in the draft (he says to himself charitably). I wasn't working from a solid strategy there.

Lowe was a strategic pick. I wanted a dependable innings eater on a good team to give my rate stats some ballast. I figured 200 innings of 3.60 ERA and 1.25 WHIP would let me take some other risks. Many of those risks paid off, but the ballast sank my ship. I won't be buying ballast early again.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 6:10am

The best of the best from the Florida State League and Eastern League

Florida State League

Hitter of the Year
Kirk Nieuwenhuis / OF / New York Mets
Nieuwenhuis' power/speed combination went unrivaled, mostly due to his league-leading 35 doubles. His strikeout numbers weren't where one would like them to be, but his league-leading .467 slugging percentage and .824 OPS certainly outweigh that one blemish on his record.

Pitcher of the Year
Darin Downs / LHP / Tampa Bay Rays
Charlotte's Downs may have been old for the Florida State League, but his stellar control and attacking style was certainly too much for his Advanced-A competition and may eventually find a niche in the major leagues.

Best Hitting Prospect
Caleb Gindl / OF / Milwaukee Brewers
Don't be fooled by his 5-foot-9, 185-pound frame. Gindi is a grinder. There is a powerful bat behind the small body, along with plenty of hard work to back up his continually improving swing, plate discipline and consistency. But, while I love his bat, I'm not sure that the speed portion of his game will be anything more than average in the big leagues.

Best Pitching Prospect
D.J. Mitchell / RHP / New York Yankees
The Florida State League saw an alarming lack of pitching talent spend any significant amount of time in the league this season. Standouts such as Kyle Drabek and Jenrry Mejia came and went, leaving D.J. Mitchell to take this crown. His aggressive nature and fearlessness have won me over.

Eastern League

Hitter of the Year
Carlos Santana / C / Cleveland Indians
Akron rode Santana all the way to a first-place finish in the Eastern League. It's rare to find a catcher who can do the things that Santana does offensively, but Cleveland is just as excited over the way that he managed Akron's pitching staff. The Eastern League didn't stand a chance.

Pitcher of the Year
Zach McAllister / RHP / New York Yankees
No other pitcher who spent the entire year in the Eastern League could touch McAllister's 2.23 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Trenton would have had a hard time even being competitive without its rock-solid ace.

Best Hitting Prospect
Carlos Santana / C / Cleveland Indians
Sorry to continue the Santana love, but the young man's follow-up season to his breakout 2008 exceeded everyone's expectations. Usually it is the adjustment to Double-A that trips up a young hitter, especially a catcher, but Santana continued his upward career progression, and he isn't far away from the majors. An All-Star career could be in the works.

Best Pitching Prospect
Madison Bumgarner / LHP / San Francisco Giants
It's hard to say something about Bumgarner that hasn't been said already. Entering the Eastern League as a teenager, this young man went right after every single hitter he came across with his impeccable control and movement. With the way 2009 played out, Bumgarner may start 2010 on the Giants' 25-man roster.

Posted by Matt Hagen at 6:00am (2) Comments

Player Profile: Colby Rasmus

St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus in dugout

As the winner of the first THT Player Profile Fan Poll, Colby Rasmus gets to take home some brand-new hardware – with a side of public scrutiny and embarrassment. Hey, there’s a price for fame and stardom. Deal with it.

Ever since his electric 2007 campaign, fantasy owners have waited in earnest for Rasmus, their next five-category stud. Once expected to be a shoo-in for the top two rounds over the next eight years, Rasmus has since turned in consecutive underwhelming seasons. Though his rookie season was, for the most part, a positive experience, it was not what fantasy owners expected of him, nor was it in line with his pedigree or potential.

Rasmus was drafted in the first round of the 2005 draft, 28th overall, by the St. Louis Cardinals. Hailing from Russell County High in Seale, Ala., the 18-year-old premiered at rookie ball later that year, where he put up a nice .296/.362/.514 line in 240 plate appearances. The young lefty showed some pop (7 home runs), good speed (13 SB) and a tendency to take walks, drawing 21. He struggled with strikeouts, however, registering an alarming total of 73. Still, there was so much to like about him that this small imperfection could be overlooked, especially from an 18-year-old.

Rasmus was promoted to A-ball the following year, moving up to High-A by the end of 2006. Rasmus again showed promise with 16 homers in 558 plate appearances between the two levels. His triple-slash totals were positive, but a mixed bag. He was able to post a .310/.373/.512 share in 335 plate appearances at A-ball, but he struggled a bit in high-A, posting a .254/.351/.404 line in 223 PAs. Still, his plate discipline indicators improved, as his walk rate remained relatively stable (10.03 percent), while he simultaneously dropped his strikeout rate to 16.1 percent of his plate appearances (90 total K's). And, to impress future fantasy owners, Rasmus added 28 steals. Not too shabby.

Then came 2007.

Promoted to Double-A, Rasmus dominated the league and rocketed up the prospect charts, rising to fifth in the majors by the end of the season - and for good reason. The 20-year-old was able to post a .275/.381/.551 line, showing off his power with 29 homers while making tremendous strides in his approach, totaling 70 walks in 554 plate appearances (12.63 percent). Though his strikeout issues resurfaced to an extent, as he whiffed in 108 at-bats (19.4 percent), his swing was so good at such a young age that there was every reason to be ecstatic about his future. With 18 more steals thrown in for good measure, fantasy owners began to salivate, writing five-category star all over him. 20-20 seemed his floor; 30-30 with 100 RBIs was a legitimate possibility.

Then came 2008.

As Ted Williams liked to say, “Hitting a baseball is the most difficult thing in all of sports.” Though many sources concur with Baseball Prospectus’ TINSTAAPP theory (“There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect”), it may be more true that there is no such thing as a hitting prospect. Rasmus is a prime example.

After narrowly missing out on the major league roster, Rasmus got off to a terribly slow start in Triple-A, which dragged down his season totals to .251/.346/.396. His power disappeared, as he hit just 11 out of the park in 380 plate appearances. His strikeout rate remained relatively steady as he registered 72 punchouts (18.94 percent), as did his walk rate, with 49 free passes (12.89 percent). The steals were still there, too, as he nabbed 15 bags in 2008. However, with poor triple-slash line and missing power, Rasmus had suddenly lost his mojo, and with it, some of the shine off his prospect star.

Still, his track record, his defense and his No. 1 team prospect status were enough to get him the starting job in center for most of 2009.

In his first taste of the bigs in 2009, the 22 year-old Rasmus was able to post a respectable—but not great—line (.251/.307/.407), which looks somewhat better when taking into account his age, the small measure of power, and that he didn't embarrass himself as many other young center fielders did. However, after looking at Rasmus’ statistical indicators, two things stand out: First, there is nothing out of the ordinary about his peripherals that would suggest Rasmus played any better than his stat line. In short, he was the same below-average outfielder the numbers described. And second, he has a number of issues to work out at the plate if he is to become the hitter St. Louis expects him to be.

Translating what was said above, know this: Rasmus was not a good hitter last year. He didn't walk much, he struck out often, and didn't do much with the ball when he did make contact. However, he has a number of encouraging trends that give him a good base to work from.

The best place to start is with his batted ball data, so let's peruse these numbers. First, and perhaps most importantly, his line-drive rate was right around league average. This is a very good sign, as it means he’s driving the ball and is not overmatched by big-league pitching. His flyball data is particularly interesting, as well. Depending on whether you are a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty guy, this point might make or break your opinion of Colby Rasmus.

To begin, he had a less-than-ideal home-run-to-flyball rate of 9.4 percent. This, when coupled with his flyball tendencies, means that he will have trouble hitting for high averages with his current HR/FB ratio. As he gets older, however, he will add strength, meaning this rate should improve.

But, by how much you expect it to improve is the real question, as Rasmus possesses the second-most-important trait of a home run hitter: the ability to hit lots of fly balls (45.7 FB%). Most hitters hit slightly more ground balls than fly balls. Rasmus, on the other hand, hits far more fly balls than grounders, meaning that if he does add weight and strength, he could become quite the power threat. When a player can combine a flyball approach with a good HR/FB ratio, he will put up good home run numbers.

However, depending on how much juice you think Rasmus has in his bat, this could be a good thing or a bad thing. It’s good in that, if he adds the requisite strength, he'll club home runs at a high rate. On the other hand, it’s a bad thing if you don’t want to bet on a strength turnaround. Without the added power, his fly balls will land in the gloves of outfielders, not in the hands of fans. This will drag down his batting average and BABIP, like it did this season.

In the end, this is most likely a good trend, as you would reasonably expect a hitter to add power as he gets older. As long as no one tries to tinker with and level out his swing, Colby will continue hitting fly balls and add the power back to his game in the next few years.

Another encouraging trend among his batted ball data is the low frequency at which he hits pop-ups, 5.3 percent. Like Garrett Jones last week, a low pop-up rate means that Rasmus is not often late on fastballs, particularly inside ones. This means that pitchers will have a hard time throwing him inside, which is a big advantage. In addition, it doesn’t seem like Rasmus needs to worry about turning into the next Chris B. Young, whose career has been derailed by a rampant pop-up problem. A good hitter, Young’s batting averages were annihilated by these giveaway outs.

There is more to like about Rasmus, however, than just his batted ball data. His relative success against fastballs (-0.35 wFB/C) and change-ups (0.61 wCH/C) for a rookie show that he is able to adjust to different speeds, which will help him as his plate approach matures. He will need to refine his ability to hit curves (-1.72 wCB/C), as they eat him up. However, he still has time on his side to fix this flaw.

But there is reason for skepticism, particularly surrounding Rasmus’ plate discipline.

Though his ’07 and ’08 minor league walk and strikeout rates suggest that Rasmus was a patient hitter with a good knowledge of the strike zone, a different hitter emerged in 2009. While first exposure to the big league pitching will have a negative impact on any hitter’s strike zone judgment, Rasmus never seemed to have a grip on it from the get-go.

This is perhaps his biggest area of concern, as he seems to have left his patient approach behind in the minors, becoming somewhat of a free-swinger.

While his strikeout and walks rates are not poor (7.1 BB%, 20.0 K%), they are disappointing from the standpoint of what could have been. It would be nice to say that his underlying indicators suggest an improvement; in fact, his Swing%, Contact% and Zone% all place him right around this range.

His 50.1 Swing% is possibly the most disturbing of all, as any hitter who swings this often will never garner many free passes. In addition, his 78.6 percent Contact% shows that he is missing on pitches too often. The Contact% is fixable. However, if he can’t refine his swinging tendencies, his OBP outlook will be severely capped due to lack of walks and strikeouts.

Assuming pitchers continue to throw him in the zone at approximately the same rate as in '09 (50.9%), Rasmus would have to drop his swing percentage by a few points to see any real gains in his walk rate—and this kind of approach overhaul is not easy to do. Therefore, Rasmus’ best bet is to focus on improving his Contact%. If he can get into the low-80 percent range, we could be talking about him striking out once every six plate appearances instead of once every five. That would be a huge boost to his batting average.

But let's shift to a more exciting topic. After all, what made Rasmus so intriguing in the first place was all his steals. What happened to those?

This one is quite confusing. After Rasmus showed off his speed in the minors, the Cardinals seemingly put the breaks on his running, as he attempted just four steals on the season. This is a disturbing trend, though some batters just have down years in the speed department. His recurring heel problems probably contributed to the low totals, as it was affecting him in mid-June and cropped up again at least once more in late July. Put your money on the steals to return in 2010, as he still has the know-how and the speed to swipe bags from major league catchers. And don’t worry about his wheels. He played quite the center field last season, posting a +11.2 UZR/150. You can’t do that without speed, so don’t be too concerned. The numbers will be there next season.

Before the final conclusion arrives, it is worth noting that Rasmus displayed a very large platoon split this season, registering a useful .277/.332/.451 line against righties, against an abysmal .160/.219/.255 one versus lefties. Some hitters are able to cure their ails against lefties, but there is always the need to beware of those who don't. Imagine what kind of player Trot Nixon could have been had he not struggled so mightily against left-handers.

Overall, Rasmus is a raw player with some work to do at the plate. Still just 23 years old, the young outfielder has a lot of potential. However, it goes without saying that he could just as easily remain the hitter he is, much in the same way Jeremy Hermida has stagnated since his own Double-A breakout in 2005. It would hardly be the first time a hitter failed to live up to expectations.

In a perfect world, Colby Rasmus would become a perennial 25-25 anchor, with enough walks to post an OPS in the mid-.800s. However, this is not a perfect world, and Rasmus is far from a perfect hitter. In 2010, a .260-.270 average with 20+ home runs and 10-15 steals sounds about right. While the line is useful, it is below average for 12-team mixed leagues. His potential makes him a worthy gamble in the later rounds, but this batter just requires too much growth and has too large a platoon split to give him a sound endorsement.

Still, Rasmus remains a great prospect, one to keep a watchful eye on. And should you choose to own or track him next year, follow his contact rate and his HR/FB rate, in particular. Should either of these rates show substantial improvement, he will be an asset. After all, he’s still got all five tools.

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Posted by Mike Silver at 6:20am

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