THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 2:18am

Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Avoid closers at your own risk

Two full MLB seasons have now been played since Derek Carty laid out his strategy for drafting closers. At the conclusion of that article he states that "taking closers early in a mixed league or shallow AL- or NL-only league is simply a mistake" and instead suggests drafting closers later and having some reliance on the waiver wire for saves.

In general I would call that sound advice since saves are a relatively unpredictable commodity and more easily found on the wire than the other fantasy categories. Before we take a step forward let's first take a look at the saves in 2009 that could have been acquired cheaply. We will show this first in a graph of each reliever's ADP against his save total, for every reliever chosen within the first 210 picks of drafts:

As you can see toward the right side of the graph, quite a few closers drafted near the 200th pick still contributed 20-plus saves. The two dots farthest up and right are Ryan Franklin and Fernando Rodney, who had fantastic seasons that far exceeded anyone's expectations.

As a side note, this graph does a good job of showing how the elite closers do not necessarily get you more saves than closers drafted later, but almost guarantee you will get a fair amount out of them. In 2009 at least, of the 14 closers drafted in the first 150 picks, 13 earned at least 20 saves. The one outlier was the injured and ineffective B.J. Ryan.

Do not be fooled in thinking the only cheap saves came from the players represented in the graph above. Plenty of closers—or perhaps relievers-turned-closers—went undrafted in most leagues but still earned saves through some means. In 2009 those players were:


Player            Sv
David Aardsma	  38
Andrew Bailey	  26
Leo Nunez	  26
Mike MacDougal	  20
C.J. Wilson	  14
LaTroy Hawkins	  11
Jason Frasor	  11
Ryan Madson	  10
Jim Johnson	  10
Scott Downs	   9
Juan Gutierrez	   9
Franklin Morales      7
Ramon Troncoso	   6
Randy Choate	   5

Some of these closers took over for their injured peers and others simply pitched their way into the role. The common theme, though, is that in the preseason it was incredibly difficult to picture any of these players having the success they did, and all of these players made their way on fantasy teams via waivers or free agency.

With so many saves available late in drafts and for free on the waiver wire, you would think it would be easy to get saves without drafting a closer early. The truth is, however, that it is fairly easy to get squeezed out of the saves market.

There are two basic ways in which you can acquire saves and they are through drafting and through the waiver wire. Yes, trading for closers is an option, but you should not head into a season expecting to acquire saves through trades.

Focusing on just drafting and adding, ideally you would acquire all of your closers through free agency since there is no cost in doing so. Few things are ideal though, and it is important to estimate in the preseason how many saves you can expect to get from free agents. The way you make that estimation is by knowing what type of league settings lead to more competition in adding free agents and whether that competition will benefit or hurt you. This was discussed in my article a few weeks ago on the impact of 3G phones on fantasy sports, which I suggest reading.

The more you can lean on free agents, the less you have to invest on closers in the draft and vice versa.

Although this idea sounds simple enough, many fantasy owners fail to appropriately estimate how many saves they can squeeze out of free agency over the course of the season. They follow seemingly sound advice like Derek's, pick a few closers late in the draft and leave a dependency on the wire to give them an extra boost in saves. As the graph of ADP vs save totals shows though, the owner gambling on closers late is doing just that—gambling.

If the closers this owner took a chance on fail—which is fairly likely—then this owner better be aggressive in finding saves in free agency lest he be forced to either punt the category or trade away talent on his team for closers. Through simple planning, it is easy to avoid having to go down either of those two undesirable routes.

While Derek's advice from two years ago follows a good thought process, it assumes that you can have at least some dependency on waivers for saves to supplant the ones you draft. If, however, you appropriately estimate that your league-mates will simply beat you to the wire most of the time, then I suggest following the advice Derek Ambrosino gave in the comments section of my article linked to above. He said:

If you know you are traditionally slow to the wire, you may have to bump the top-tier, reliable closers up your sheet on draft day.

This is not to say that elite closers are 100 percent reliable and risk-free, but as the ADP vs Saves graph above shows, elite closers are substantially more dependable than their less-touted counterparts.

In many ways being a good fantasy baseball player is being a good estimator and it is extremely important to be able to accurately estimate how much production you can get out of free agents. Those who are disillusioned to their situation and think they can wait to draft closers on draft day will ultimately pay the price come the end of the season.

Posted by Paul Singman at 4:08am

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Player Profile: Jay Bruce

Since his entry into the major leagues, Jay Bruce has been both brilliant and frustrating—teasing owners with his potential while falling short of those expectations.

The saga of Jay Bruce begins all the way back in 2005, when he was drafted 15th overall by the Cincinnati Reds. Premiering in rookie ball that year, Bruce showed good power for an 18-year-old, hitting nine long balls in 192 at-bats. A good-but-not-great debut saw the young outfielder hit .270/.331/.500 and .257/.358/.457 between the Gulf Coast League and the Pioneer League that year. His 22 walks were a good showing for the youngster, but 53 strikeouts were somewhat troubling. Still, his projectability and positive overall line earned him a promotion to A-ball in 2006.

The next season saw Bruce premier for Dayton in the Midwest League. Bruce again produced, with a .291/.355/.516 line in 492 plate appearances, with 16 home runs. Bruce flashed a bit of speed, as well, posting 19 steals. His plate discipline was a bit underwhelming, however, as he managed just 44 walks against 106 Ks.

2007 was quite the season for Bruce, as he slugged his way through three levels, reaching Triple-A in time to post 203 plate appearances. His power numbers made some dramatic leaps, as he was able to hit 26 home runs in 521 at-bats. Still, his plate discipline lagged behind his tools, as the 20-year-old walked just 47 times against 135 strikeouts.

The 2008 season finally saw the arrival of the Reds' prized prospect, as his .364/.393/.630 showing at Triple-A Louisville finally forced the Reds to call up their outfielder. Bruce continued to hit well, raking upon promotion, though tailing off by the end of the season. Still, he performed right along with his minor league indicators: plenty of power but little plate discipline. His 21 home runs in 413 at-bats were a great sign, but 33 walks against 110 strikeouts were troubling. Still, Bruce was young, so strike zone judgment problems were acceptable.

2009 was quite the downer for Bruce. His overall line of .223/.303/.470 was very poor, and he missed 57 games between July and September with a hand fracture. Still, there was a lot to like about Bruce's year—and the poor overall line sets him up to be quite the value pick for the 2010 draft.

First off, don't take his overall line at face value. Sure, he had an awful 13.0 percent line drive rate, but a .222 BABIP is just too low for a hitter of Bruce's caliber to sustain. This, alone, is the primary factor in Bruce's poor line. We'll assume, for argument's sake, that Bruce posted a .300 BABIP. With this improvement, his batting average would rise to the high .270s. With Bruce's hitting ability, his .298 BABIP in 2008, and post-injury conclusion to the season, we have reason to believe that Bruce can turn his woes around in this department. Still, when assessing his prospects for 2010, err on the side of caution when assessing his 2010 BABIP.

There is more to like besides just his BABIP, however. Bruce made some big strides with his plate discipline this past season. He became a more patient hitter, dropping both his O-Swing percentage (30.4 percent O-Swing in 2008, versus 26.0 percent in 2009) and his swing percentage (51.2 percent in 2008, versus 48.0 percent in 2009). This means that Bruce was becoming more selective at the plate, a great indicator for any hitter, especially one with as much power potential as Bruce. In addition, his contact percentage made a nice improvement, rising from very poor in 2008 (71.6 percent) to adequate in 2009 (75.9 percent). Further, pitchers gave even more respect to Bruce's power in 2009, dropping the percent of pitches thrown to Bruce in the zone to a lowly 45.7 percent.

All told, these were very encouraging developments for Bruce. With improved selectivity, he should be able to translate the better offerings into more power, while adding walks. Even though he showed good improvements in his walk rate in 2009, at 9.9 percent, his plate discipline statistics are more indicative of a walk rate around 12 percent. However, his K-rate may take a rise as well, as his rates suggest a strikeout rate around 23 percent. The plate discipline hurdle is a major one for any hitter with a middling sense of the strike zone, so these improvements are very important to Bruce's development.

Bruce's 2009 was very much a tale of two seasons—his putrid pre-injury and excellent post-injury performances. While an injury is never a good thing for an athlete, especially a wrist fracture to a power hitter, the mishap could have actually saved Bruce's season. Hitting a paltry .207/.283/.441 line before the all-star break, he finished the season on a very positive note, hitting .326/.426/.652 in 54 plate appearances, including four homers, eight walks, and 12 strikeouts. In addition, his BABIP recovered, sitting at a cool .366 through the end of the year. Sure, the small sample size is unfortunate, but the success is a great sign for Bruce next season.

Overall, the young Bruce is quite the prospect, both for real life and fantasy. He has great power, demonstrated by his 22 home runs in 345 at-bats and career 18.3 percent HR/FB rate. He hit more fly balls in 2009, 48.5 percent, which, for a power hitter, is a huge positive. And, he is improving in almost every phase of his game. However, his lefty-righty splits still bear watching, as he hit 20 homers in 245 at-bats against righties, with just two shots in 100 at-bats against lefties. His 2010 performance will be interesting in his future outlook, though he is still young enough to find success against southpaws.

While at first glance, Jay Bruce's 2009 season seems like a step back in his development, he actually made a number of significant improvements that will progress his career. He improved quite significantly in his strike zone judgment and selectivity, while also improving his fly ball tendencies. While wrist issues are always problematic for a hitter, he seems to have put these concerns to rest with a strong September. For 2010, expect a very different Jay Bruce, one who finally lives up to his No. 1 prospect billing. A .275-.285 average with 30 home runs doesn't seem out of the question. If he is able to maintain his plate discipline gains, he could post an OPS in the .900s as well, with the high .900s a possibility and 1.000—while a reach—not out of the question. After such a poor 2009, he should go significantly lower than where his true value lies, so don't be afraid to draft him earlier than his big board listing. For next year, watch his contact rate and O-swing percentage, as well as his line drive rate—as they go, so do Bruce. In the end, he looks to be a very good outfielder in 12-team mixed leagues, with an outside chance at stardom. Especially if you're in a keeper league, don't miss out on his 2010 season.

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Posted by Mike Silver at 5:34am

Thursday, November 05, 2009

Ifs and buts

"Hmm. If I'm healthy next year, I could be your fourth-round pick." (Icon/SMI)

Warning, this is a rant—a rant with a purpose, but nevertheless one full of unnamed conspirators and false friends. I can't even say for sure that I haven't been guilty of these crimes. The point here isn't to name and blame, but rather to enjoy a bit of therapy. It is healthy for me to let it all out every now and then, and if it helps you—well then we're both smiling. Today's exorcism focuses on two ways that experts (and others) often give non-answer answers.

The ifs

How would you feel about the following hypothetical question and answer?

Desperate fantasy player:
"Dear Guru,
My league does our 2010 draft during this year's World Series. Who would you draft first: Johnny Damon or Raul Ibanez?"

Roster Quack:
"It all depends on who stays healthy. If Ibanez can stay on the field, then he'll have the greater value. If he's not 100 percent healthy, though, and if Damon re-signs with the Yankees, then Damon might be a better pick."

What's wrong with this diagnosis? Well, the Quack doesn't actually answer the question. Instead he has provided a bunch of conditional statements. Linguistically, conditional statements often look like: if event X happens, then the value is Y.

There's nothing wrong with a conditional statement. A bunch of them can often provide more information than a single unconditional statement (which would be, e.g., "Ibanez is worth more right now than Damon"). They're useful for explaining one's reasoning: "Ibanez is worth more than Damon because if Ibanez stays healthy he'll outproduce Damon AND I don't think he's a big injury risk." But just as often, gurus use them to avoid (intentionally or otherwise) giving an answer to the hard part of the question.

For instance, how helpful is a statement like: "If Curtis Granderson could hit lefties as well as he hits righties, he'd be a second-round pick"? Well, if you didn't know that Granderson had terrible splits, then it would be useful. But if you were wondering about his value for next year, you'd be left a little short.

Sometimes substituting a conditional statement in place of an unconditional one is helpful as long as it is accompanied by a little honesty. For instance: "I'm terrible at projecting injuries, so you should use your own expectations concerning injuries. But, if Ibanez is healthy, he is worth more than Damon." Here, the guru is telling you that he could give you an unconditional statement like "My projections are that Damon is worth more than Ibanez," but that it might be based on some unreliable injury forecasts. So, instead he provides you with the part of his forecast that he feels is more reliable, while at least being upfront about his unfamiliarity with the repercussions of Ibanez's current ailments.

The buts

"But for Ibanez's hot September (when he hit seven home runs), he was terrible after the All-Star break. You can't expect that kind of September again, so I think Ibanez is due for a regression."

Nearly everything about this guru's prognosis is correct. Ibanez did have a great September and had an equally desultory July and August. Let's ignore that he also hit seven or more home runs in April and May and grant that such months are rare events. Still, the logic above is almost certainly incorrect.

Suppose I tell you I have a die numbered 1 through X. It could be a 100-sided die (1-100), a standard six-sided die (1-6), etc. You don't know what X is—that is, you don't know how many sides it has. But I do tell you that the die rolls are each independent of each other—the result of one die roll does not affect the outcome of the next (just like any normal die). Ask yourself if there is any difference in the following pieces of information:

1) I tell you that I rolled the die 200 times and only the first four rolls came up with the number 1.
2) I tell you that I rolled the number 1 four times in 200 rolls.

The first outcome—rolling 1 four times in a row to start (and then never again)—is the far rarer outcome. Imagine a 100-sided die—then the probability of doing it would be one time out of 100 million! If we were strato-mating a baseball season with that die, probably we would never get that outcome again. Nevertheless, both statements are equally informative about how many sides the die has (that is, what X is). Statistically, this is due to the independence assumption—which means that the order in which events occur is uninformative.

Now replace "rolls a 1" with "hits a home run." As long as the independence assumption holds in baseball, then it makes no difference whether Ibanez hits all his home runs in September or not. Only the sheer number of home runs is informative, not when they occurred.

There are many discussions of the independence assumptions—for instance, if there is such a thing as a hot or cold player. Most research points against streaks and for independence. It doesn't really matter here actually, unless you believe that streaks can carry over through the offseason and into the next. Off the top of my head, many gurus use "buts" to remove rare events from consideration. Few of them, I would venture, believe in multi-season streaks.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 6:00am

Top 10 prospects for 2010: Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles

Tampa Bay Rays

1. Desmond Jennings: As one of the most dynamic players in minor league baseball, Jennings represents the future leadoff hitter for a Tampa Bay organization hoping to compete year after year.
2. Jeremy Hellickson: He is a control artist with the repertoire of a mid-rotation starter. However, improved movement and an uptick in his secondary offerings could lead to even greater things. If Hellickson can stay healthy, he is the most sure thing that Tampa Bay has to offer.
3. Wade Davis: His overall repertoire has ace written all over it, but Davis' control needs to improve across the board if he's going successfully transition to the big leagues.
4. Matthew Moore: Representing the third true potential No. 1 starter in Tampa Bay's farm system, Moore has fantastic stuff but needs to improve his control if he's going to succeed at higher levels. He still has a ways to go.
5. Tim Beckham: He was an overdraft at No. 1 in the 2008 draft, but there is no denying his upside. As a true work in progress, his glove needs just as much improvement as his bat.
6. Reid Brignac: You would like to see him cement his play in the major leagues, but Brignac has a little bit of everything you look for in an everyday shortstop. A very solid player is in the works.
7. Nick Barnese: His stuff doesn't turn heads, but Barnese has all the makings of a mid-rotation big-league starter. It's doubtful at this point, but if one of his secondary pitches develops into a truly dominant "out" pitch, even greater things could be on the horizon.
8. Jake McGee: Back from Tommy John surgery, McGee threw limited innings in 2009. His goal in 2010 will be to recover what he had before the surgery, namely his plus fastball. Tampa may move him to the bullpen permanently, but I'm still willing to invest.
9. Kyle Lobstein: His reputation gets a bit overblown at times, but there is no denying Lobstein's deliberate mechanics and solid repertoire. I do have to question how much projection is left in his arm, however.
10. Cody Rogers: Offering considerable upside, Rogers quietly put together a fantastic Appy League debut. He needs a lot of refinement, but he has a nice combination of power and speed to go along with his natural contact skills.

Baltimore Orioles

1. Brian Matusz: Matusz has everything you look for in a front-of-the-rotation prospect, including an arsenal full of potentially plus pitches, a feel for the type of control it takes to succeed in the big leagues, and an intimidating demeanor on the mound.
2. Jake Arrieta: He has an average four-pitch mix and a fastball that can occasionally touch the mid-90s, but it is time to question Arrieta's endurance. It's the only thing holding back his No. 2 starter upside.
3. Brandon Erbe: Erbe sports impressive stuff, but he doesn't possess an out pitch and, frankly, he is far too hittable right now. His control is not where it needs to be either. He is more raw than he should be at his point, and he looks like a mid-rotation starter.
4. Matt Hobgood: With great endurance and advanced movement for his age, Hobgood has a good amount of upside. His repertoire has a long maturation process ahead, though.
5. Zach Britton: His groundball rate and natural, sinking action are his best assets, but Britton doesn't have enough ability to miss bats, which will become more apparent as he moves through the system.
6. Josh Bell: Bell's home run power busted out in 2009, but his overall upside is not indicative of his numbers. He has the makings of an average third baseman with his strong eye, solid contact skills and above-average power.
7. Xavier Avery: Avery is an eye-catching ballplayer. His raw playmaking ability is something every team craves, but the numerous holes in his swing and lousy plate patience have forced me to be patient.
8. Mychal Givens: Givens is a tremendous athlete with a killer arm at shortstop. He needs a lot of refinement in both his offensive and defensive game. He has a long way to go in order to obtain the smoothness needed to succeed as a line-drive-hitting shortstop.
9. Brandon Snyder: If Snyder weren't a first baseman, his bat would be playable at the major league level. But his offense projects as below average as a first baseman. More development is needed, but his bat could be maxed out.
10. Ryan Adams: With some upside left, Adams has the contact skills to play at higher levels, but the question is whether or not his power, speed and patience will ever develop into usable tools at the same time.

Posted by Matt Hagen at 6:20am (7) Comments

Friday, November 06, 2009

Waiver Wire Offseason: NL

Eugenio Velez | San Francisco | 2B/OF
2009 Final Stats: .267/.308/.400

In his second full season in the majors, Velez endured a bumpy ride. A slow start that had him hitting .216/.222/.438 through the first two months of the season earned him a ticket back to Fresno, where he hit .297/.340/.451 before returning to the Giants (lest you think that minor-league line is all that fantastic, he hit .310/.372/.509 there in a nearly identical number of games and ABs in 2008).

Still, this seemed to energize him, and he finished the year with a .277/.321/.426 final two-plus months, largely due to the 14-game hitting streak he began immediately upon his return, which saw him post a .417/.444/.633 line. After that point, he hit .233/.283/.360, a lower OPS than he'd had before his demotion. Even worse for his fantasy owners, he only collected 11 measly steals, the source of much of his fantasy value.

The team as a whole had its worst SB totals in several years; the Giants' 78 swipes were their fewest since 2006 and the lowest in the Bruce Bochy Era. The 2009 Giants weren't a team built for speed, with Velez, Randy Winn and Emmanuel Burriss the nominal speedsters, and none of them cracked 20 steals, with Winn's 16 leading the way. With a team that was fourth-worst in the NL in runs per game, and had the lowest OPS+ in the league, it's likely that Bochy didn't want to risk runners when he had them.

Of course, as the Giants and Velez both know, to steal a base, you've got to get on base, and neither did so very well. As a team, the Giants had a horrific .309 OBP—also last in the NL and further evidence of their amazing pitching in '09—but even Velez, their most frequent leadoff hitter, couldn't beat that awful number. This, however, shouldn't be too surprising, as Velez hasn't shown the plate discipline in his career to be a leadoff hitter.

In the minors, he showed a .36 BB/K ratio; even though that peaked at .53 in 2008, that's still not leadoff-worthy. And in the majors, it's been as bad or worse, with last season's .35 dropping to .29 in 2009. He was a leadoff hitter in San Francisco because of his contact skills (.81 in the minors, .83 in the majors) and his speed (164 SBs in seven minor-league seasons). It should be noted, however, that those minor-league speed numbers are inflated by 113 SBs in Single-A and Double-A; he's only got 28 SBs above that level.

There's no doubt he's got speed, but it looks like it's more likely to manifest itself in doubles and triples (he has 29 doubles and 14 triples in the majors, and 24 doubles and seven triples in Triple-A). His batting average should ratchet up near .300 because of his foot speed and contact ability, but he doesn't bring significant power, dragging his value down further.

Velez's problematic future in San Francisco is compounded by the issue of where to play him. The Giants inked Freddy Sanchez to a two-year deal at the end of October, blocking Velez's best fit at the keystone. As an outfielder, he's a classic 'tweener—not enough leather for center, not enough wood for the corners.

Plus, the Giants are likely to sign a free-agent outfielder next season, and are stuck with Aaron Rowand's whopper of an unloadable deal through 2012. Randy Winn's undoubtedly gone and Fred Lewis has disappointed, but both Nate Schierholz and John Bowker have to be ahead of Velez in any outfield depth chart.

At this point, his future looks to be as a fourth outfielder and backup second baseman, who might bring you a hollow BA with the possibility of some steals. He had some nice moments in 2009 and could reel off another hot streak if he's in the lineup, but if you can predict the two-week stretch when he's going to do that, you ought to be betting on things more lucrative than fantasy baseball.

Ian Desmond | Washington | SS
2009 Final Stats: .280/.318/.561

It's taken Desmond five years to claw his way up through the minors, as the Nats have waited for his bat to catch up with his glove. The glove's significant, though his tendency at every level has been to make the highlight reels while muffing the easy ones. That's common with a young player, and he's got the defensive talent for that to settle down eventually.

But what fantasy owners want to know is whether that batting line is for real. Twenty-one games and 89 PAs is an awfully small sample space, and 13 of those games were against the Braves and Mets, teams playing out the string. It's much more instructive to look at his much lengthier minor-league record.

The closest he came to that a .561 slugging percentage was actually this year, when he slugged .494 in Double-A—his third crack at that level. His overall numbers in the minors are .259/.326/.388, although scouting reports give him decent power and good bat speed. As testament, he's got 39 doubles and 19 homers in the past two seasons, and has thrown in 127 career minor-league steals for good measure.

What he doesn't have is particularly good pitch recognition (.39 BB/K) or contact skills (.78). Some of that is dragged down by his earlier, younger years—though his contact rate has remained steady, he's recorded a .50 BB/K over the past three seasons and .44 BB/K over the past two. In the brief debut he's had, those stats have remained fairly steady, with a .36 BB/K and a .83 CT in that short time. Still, nobody expects him to keep plugging along with an OPS of .879.

Desmond, however, has the advantage that Velez doesn't: playing time. The Nats are going to shift Cristian Guzman over to second to accommodate Desmond, something that should benefit both of them, as Guzman's not the defender he used to be. And there's nobody significant lurking in the minors to breathe down Desmond's neck; their better SS prospect, Danny Espinosa, won't be in the bigs for another year or two, at least.

There are lots of question marks in the Washington offseason, from the free agents they're likely to sign to whether Jim Riggleman will return as manager. Washington probably will bring Riggleman back, and he's already said he's comfortable with Desmond as his starting shortstop. With all the other holes they have to fill, and with Guzman as a fallback plan, Desmond shouldn't face any competition from free agency, either.

So it's a good news-bad news thing for fantasy owners. Yes, he'll be Washington's shortstop, failing injury or utter collapse, for 2009 and probably 2010. And, no, he's not going to produce at the levels he attained in that month-plus of major-league PT. A guy with good bat speed could run into a few longballs and a hot streak, and an OPS in the .725-.750 range with a handful of steals makes him a decent NL-only SS option. But don't be fooled by a 21-game stretch.

Dan Runzler | San Francisco | RP
2009 Final Stats: 11.4 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 1.04 ERA

I'll be honest and say I didn't even have Runzler on my radar, but requests are requests and Evan asked for a writeup—and I'm very glad he did. A third-round draft choice, Runzler is one of those guys who doesn't make too many prospect lists but still holds some value.

Runzler is a 24-year-old lefty reliever who put up the above stats in just 8.2 IP with the Giants down the stretch. He rocketed up through the minors in just three seasons, rising all the way from Single-A to the majors in 2009. He sports a fastball in the mid-90s with late movement but had control problems early on in his career.

Clearly, he seems to have overcome those, a testament to the pitcher's factory that is the Giants' organization. In the minors in 2009, he racked up a 0.76 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 59 IP, striking out 83 while walking just 24. As impressive, his 65% ground ball rate minimized any damage, although the .119 BA and .188 BABIP had to help, too. On the other hand, his 2.61 FIP suggests he was helped by his defense.

Runzler carried those stats over to his short stint with the Giants, albeit in slightly less dramatic fashion. Opposing batters hit only .188 against him, with a BABIP of .250, while he induced ground balls at a 48% rate, to go along with those pretty ratios you see above. FIP, too, was a bit pessimistic, as it gave him a 4.19 ERA, but the Giants did feature one of the best defenses in the NL.

The question is, as always: Will he continue?

The Giants seem to think so, as he's already being mentioned as a bullpen fixture for next year. Even though he's a lefty, his major- and minor-league splits were practically even against lefties and righties, so he's not a specialist, and Bochy didn't use him that way.

Where he did use him was in late innings, and he got better the later he pitched: batters hit .250 off him in the seventh inning and .154 in the eighth. That carried over from the minors, where hitters hit .160 in the seventh, .103 in the eighth, and .115 in the ninth.

That means he's got the chance and the skills to stick in the majors, but in what capacity?

The Giants already have the back end of their bullpen nailed down, with Brian Wilson arbitration eligible until 2013 and Jeremy Affeldt signed through 2010. Runzler will be the seventh-inning guy ahead of them, ready to step in should either falter, and could occupy a more prominent role if the Giants move Wilson.

What that means to fantasy owners, unfortunately, is that Runzler's unlikely to provide more than ratio help and holds, barring anything unpredictable. That, combined with the possibility he could regress after just one season of dominance, makes him a marginal pick at best, but still someone to keep your eye on. Thanks to Evan for putting him on our radar!

Next week, we'll take a look at Jeff Francoeur, Kyle Blanks and Scott Elbert. The weeks following will feature Jake Fox, Matt Latos, Joe Blanton and Ben Sheets. Please offer other suggestions in the comments below.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Waiver Wire Offseason: AL

Derek Jeter | New York | SS
2009 Final Stats: .334/.406/.465

Congratulations to the New York Yankees on their World Championship! Has anyone heard how many this is for them? ... It's not as though every single article mentions it today. But, love them or hate them, the New York Yankees are a monumentally large part of baseball history. And this team was worthy of taking its place alongside some of their other awesome squads. “The Captain” was “Mr. November” again this year, and there's no doubt that he was a huge part of their 103-win season (even though Pythagorean suggests they were only a 95-win team). Jeter responded to the move to the leadoff role with his second-best season since age 26, even stealing 30 bases—a total he's only exceeded twice. The combination of stamina (716 PA) and excellence is rare in older players in general, and almost unheard of amongst middle infielders. Ripken and Larkin each had a great rate-stat season in their later 30s, but both were with many fewer plate appearances. We wouldn't bet a lot against the future Hall of Famer, but a serious decline seems highly likely for age-36 Jeter in 2010.

Mark Teixeira | New York | 1B
2009 Final Stats: .292/.383/.565

Did we mention that the Yankees won? (cue John Sterling) Well, they had a lot of high roto value players helping them. Gun-for-hire Mark Teixeira fit into the New York scene like he'd been there all his life, and his lousy postseason won't be held against him as winning is the “great deodorant.” We'd like to add something clever or insightful here about Teixeira, but what can you say? He's about as consistent as you'll find—expect .290/.380/.550 with 110-plus RBIs in that lineup, and it's unlikely he'll disappoint. If he has a big postseason in 2010, he will take his place in the hearts of Yankees fans. He's been in the hearts of fantasy baseball fans for years already, though.
[ed - As a side note, I was reading the comments about Derek Carty's great results in expert leagues this season, and in the comments was the quip that "you can't win a league early, but you can lose it." I've happily drafted Teixeira with late first-round picks in numerous leagues over his career, and don't think I've ever been disappointed. Probably now that he's a Yankee, the days of him being a "draft bargain" are gone, but there is a lot to be said for "banking" a high-consistency guy like this, even if it's a slight over-draft. - Rob]

Paul Konerko | Chicago | 1B
2009 Final Stats: .277/.353/.489

Paul Konerko put up stats that were so close to his career line you'd think it was a misprint. Even the BABIP was just two points different, and hitters' BABIPs tend to regress to their own norm (yeah, we know, that's a very nebulous concept, but so far the predictors of BABIP haven't done a great job), unlike a regression to norm of the entire MLB sample as pitchers' BABIPs tend to do. Still, the three-year totals for Konerko aren't that great, and he'll be 34 in March. Better players have had careers without much success after age 33, including Steve Garvey, whom Konerko highly resembles as a hitter (both are RH, don't walk much, and have very similar career OPS+ scores). Garvey had a “last hoorah” at age 34, so anything is possible, but with Thome and Dye departing, the RBI chances and runs scored may not improve as White Sox fans would hope after the team's awful offensive season. The present void at DH might keep Konerko in the lineup when he'd otherwise need an off day, but then again, Tyler Flowers will be pressing for playing time soon. We don't think the push for free agency money will drive Konerko any more than he already is, so expect across-the-board declines, and while they should be gradual, don't be shocked by a big downturn. From age 32 on, Garvey hit just .277/.309/.411 (which was good for a 101 OPS+ back then, thanks to baseball-reference.com), so a 100 OPS+ type season from Konerko wouldn't be shocking.

Chad Gaudin | New York? | SP
2009 Final Stats: 8.5 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.64 ERA

Having gotten his first taste of the majors at age 20, Gaudin is still just 26 years old (27 in March). Cut by the Cubs in the same offseason where they gave him a $2 million contract, he bounced around before making the World Champion Yankees playoff roster. In many ways, Gaudin looks very much like a league-average starting pitcher. His career ERA is 4.50, good for a 93 ERA+ (which adjusts for the numerous parks and leagues in which he's played). The splits for starter/reliever don't show much of a preference for either, though he relieved more when he was younger (and presumably less ready). His xFIP was about 4.5 each of the past three seasons (including his almost-200 IP 2007 season for Oakland). Room for improvement may even exist, as he's added some K/9 (8.5 in 2009 after 6.5 previously). There have, however, been rumors that he's worn out welcomes for reasons other than his performance, and that fits, since at $2 million, he's a bargain, even if it's not the sort of pitcher a team wants starting playoff games. To the public, he's always expressed a preference for starting but a willingness to relieve, as needed. This should make him an ideal “Swingman” for a good team, such as, say, the Yankees?

Tommy Hunter | Texas | SP
2009 Final Stats: 5.1 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 4.10 ERA

They finally found the name that works in Texas: “Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.” Well, at least it works to provide a neutral “park factor,” using a multi-year measure of run scoring. That's good news for the pitchers who are expected to throw extra innings on “The Ryan Plan” (no, not something from a Tom Clancy novel). One such hurler is Tommy Hunter, and he needs the help—he's going to let some balls get hit (low 5.1 K/9), and hit in the air (42% FB%). He's young and improving, which should be almost enough to counterbalance the somewhat lucky BABIP (.284) and HR/FB% (8.3%) from 2009. He has a lot of counterbalancing to do, though, as his xFIP (4.99) was much higher than his ERA (4.10). As a Judo expert with a huge body, he should know about balance, though. And he definitely looks durable, as his pitching style and results suggest another big-bodied pitcher—Joe Blanton. With the worries about the luck factors reversing and the park turning back into the hitters' paradise it used to be, we wouldn't go too crazy over Hunter, but he should be good for a lot of IP without causing too much damage to ratios in an AL league.

Matt Garza | Tampa Bay | SP
2009 Final Stats: 8.4 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 3.95 ERA

The smart readers here at THT don't lob up “cookies” for us to smack out of the park, and Garza isn't an easy outlook to decipher. The first thought, of course, is that at age 25 last year, he added more than two K/9 to his power, while adding just 0.62 BB/9, which is a tradeoff usually associated with a step toward true ace-level dominance. His HR/FB% went over 10% after being under 9% for his career before 2009, but he still allowed just a .384 slugging percentage on the season (1.11 HR/9). As for the future, it appears that Garza has some similarities to Carlos Zambrano. They are two of the best RH pitchers at shutting down the running game, which keeps their actual ERAs under their FIP/xFIP estimates, partly due to the fact that they don't rely heavily on big, looping breaking balls—but rather the natural movement on their fastballs—most of the time. Unlike Zambrano, Garza has to face some of the strongest lineups in MLB, loaded with nine hitters instead of eight. Will he fail to take more steps forward, as Zambrano has so far, or will he parlay the extra strikeouts into frequent Cy Young contention? We'd stick with the conservative position for now, as too many things have to go right for him to take that next step. But he's still plenty good as is.

Koji Uehara | Baltimore | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.5 K/9, 4.00 K/BB, 4.05 ERA

It's difficult to post a 4.00 K:BB ratio in the major leagues and not be highly successful, but Uehara is used to being even better, with an 8.1 to 1.1 career ratio pitching for Yomiuri in the Japanese Central League. However, the one thing that can temper success in such cases is injury. And he's also familiar with those, having missed all or parts of several of his 10 years in Japan, while being a frequent Sawamura Award (best pitcher) contender while healthy. As happens in the U.S., his team tried all sorts of things to keep their star pitcher healthy, including a full season of relief work in 2007. Unfortunately for Baltimore, he brought his seemingly balsa wood fragility with his nasty stuff over from Japan. With a swarming hoard of top-tier pitching prospects invading Baltimore, and their closer role wide open, it wouldn't be inconceivable to see Koji the Closer in 2010, though the team will likely try free agency and trade routes first. If he remains in the rotation, expect something akin to the maddening Rich Harden Experience (without as many strikeouts), where he's highly effective for spurts, and then breaks down, and then perhaps returns.

Billy Wagner | Boston? | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.5 K/9, 4.00 K/BB, 4.05 ERA

Normally, we'd say to take a 15-IP sample size with a salt mine full of the stuff. But Billy Wagner isn't normal, and he made a great career move accepting the shift to Boston and the AL, despite not closing games. He showed that he could be a dominant reliever, even in the rugged AL East (1.1 WHIP in Boston). He struck out 26 batters overall in those 15.2 IP. And, if it becomes important, he's shown that he can excel in a non-closer capacity. His average fastball velocity returned to his pre-injury level, and he's apparently ready to become The Man in some town. Expect some team to get a fairly good price on a top-tier closer in 2010, due to concerns over his injury history and—to a lesser extent—his age. Some fantasy owner could similarly reap the rewards of reduced interest, and our position is that pitchers get hurt all the time ... nothing makes Wagner significantly more risky than any other pitcher who was healthy at the end of 2009.

Thanks for the great suggestions ... please keep them coming! Don't worry if they've been written up recently, we'll either get the latest dish (maybe a shorter blurb), or postpone it for a couple weeks if there's pending news, such as with free agents).

I'll try to post the ledger of who was reviewed when, and keep it on the bottom weekly, starting next week. For now, you can access the history of THT Fantasy articles at the URL with the date in it, as such:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/archives_art/2009/10/30

Friday dates with Waiver Wires:
May 1, 8, 15, 22, 29
June 5, 12, 19, 26
July 3, 10, 17, 24, 31
Aug. 7, 14, 21, 28
Sept. 4, 11, 18, 25
Oct. 2, 16, 23, 30

Posted by Rob McQuown at 4:00am

Monday, November 09, 2009

Clone Wars: Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria

While Evan Longoria was only drafted one year after Ryan Zimmerman he has spent a few extra years in the minors. Zimmerman has three extra seasons in the majors and 1,447 more plate appearances. That makes it so much more interesting that the two posted such similar lines in 2009. Then when we look even deeper they match in plenty of their underlying numbers. They might be the ultimate version of 2009 Clones.

Name                      R    HR   RBI   SB   AVG     OBP    SLG    BB%      K%
Ryan Zimmerman            110  33   106    2   .292   .364   .525    10.6%   19.5%
Evan Longoria             100  33   113    9   .281   .364   .526    11.0%   24.0%

Ryan Zimmerman

MLB: SEP 30 Mets at Nationals
30 September 2009: Washington Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman in action against the New York Mets at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. The Nationals rallied in the bottom of the ninth inning on a Justin Maxwell walk-off Grand Slam to win 7-4 and sweep the Mets in the three-game series capping the Nationals' 2009 home season.(Icon/SMI)

There were some doubts about Zimmerman after the torn labrum last season, but he came back even better than before. His SLG jumped more than 50 points from his best full season and his eye had improved with his best ever walk rate. He did have Adam Dunn behind him this year, which had to help him get some better pitches, but that doesn't really explain the better walk rate.

This year Zimmerman has cut down on his swing percentage going from a 43+% swing rate in his career to only 39% this year. This was beneficial in his swings out of the zone dropping to 21 percent. It will be interesting to see what he does with this going forward as the drop in swings has not improved his contact. His contact rate on pitches in the zone dropped to a career low of 87.1 percent.

He still has time to grow in his power, but a word of caution for his 33 homers this year is his 14 "just enough" homers according to HitTrackeronline. That is a 42 percent rate, which is far above the league average and a sign he could regress in 2010, but don't rule out his power growing as he ages toward his prime years.

Evan Longoria

Did the Tampa Bay Rays make the right or wrong choice by holding Longoria back longer then Washington did with Zimmerman? Probably not since he was a big contributor in their World Series appearance of 2008, but even if he had not signed such a team-friendly deal he would have had more of his prime years covered by arbitration.

Longoria had a few extra homers from last year, but that was with 35 extra games this season. Most of his numbers are very similar to last year, but with the added games played to increase the totals. The one number that took a step forward was his walk rate going from 9.3 percent last year to 11 percent. His OBP responded by going from .343 to a much improved .364.

His speed has continued to surprise as he only totaled eight steals in 205 minor league games. Now he has totaled more steals in 2009 then all his time in the minors. This would lead me to expect him to stay at or below this number, but with him yet to get caught stealing, either, I see no reason to slow him down.

Conclusion

You could call these players even in 2009 as they matched most stats, but Longoria had a few more steals and Zimmerman had a better batting average. They still have plenty of years before they even hit their prime, but I think Longoria has the track record to support the power numbers going forward. If these two are of similar value in your league then go with Longoria first with Zimmerman being a solid second choice. I don't think you can go wrong with either one, but would go with the one who has done this before.

This is not related to fantasy, but the elite defense of these two players has been amazing as well. They both totaled UZR/150 over 19 and that helped them match each other in WAR at 7.1 and 7.2. They really are clones this season. Perhaps only their contracts split them as Longoria has an extremely team-friendly deal with options out till 2015.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 3:04am

When a cigar is not just a cigar

Jonathan Halket’s recent column has emboldened me. I have something of a rant to let loose as well, also aimed at “fantasy gurus.” Actually, this isn’t so much of a rant as it is a piece of advice to those who may read the results of all-“expert” drafts. So, heed the following sentence.

Internal politics and self-interest are involved in making picks in drafts whose results will be published on well-trafficked fantasy baseball sites.

Now, I want to make it very clear that I am not accusing any of these people of colluding, deliberately misleading their readerships, or any overtly conspiratorial behavior. What I am saying is simply that correctly identifying breakouts is seen as the type of accomplishment on which fantasy guru reputations are staked and grown in the mainstream fantasy community. Sensibly drafting a team of boring, but solidly matched and reliable veterans is not seen as sexy. Nobody exhibits a palpable aura of excitement when landing Bobby Abreu in their fantasy draft (except me, I love owning Abreu). For this reason, you will see many young, burgeoning stars, or stars-to-be get over-drafted in these all-expert leagues. Yet, this is something that people don’t seem to acknowledge in any meaningful way.

I remember watching a preview of the 2005 season in which a roundtable of pundits were making their MVP predictions. When it came to the AL, the usual suspects were thrown out there, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez and so forth. Then, one guy nominated, in seeming sincerity, Bobby Crosby. Crosby was coming off of a Rookie of the Year season and appeared to have a bright future ahead. But, nobody could have truly thought of him as a viable MVP candidate.

Most astute observers don’t think anything of these instances. Personally, I figured the show’s producers had stipulated that one of the non-sacred pundits had to throw out a highly controversial, and somewhat unrealistic nomination just to drive discussion and for the purposes of saying something that everybody watching at home didn’t already know. That’s par for the course after all.

When a fantasy guru publishes the results of a draft in which he drafts Alexei Ramirez with something like the 35th pick in the draft, he’s not doing quite the same thing as the Crosby nominator, and it’s certainly not as choreographed and premeditated, but he is, to some degree, “making a statement.” In fact, he’s likely doing two things.

The first thing he’s likely doing is putting his money where his mouth is. He’s likely talked up this player in the run up to draft time, and he’s showing his readership that he truly believes. That’s laudable in theory, but often the guru has stretched to get the player in question, which gives a false impression of that player’s value (and maybe even that guru’s level of expectation for that player).

The second thing he may be doing—and this is the dangerous one—is falling victim to the experts’ echo chamber. Every year there are a few darlings of the “expert” community. For some reason that maybe Malcolm Gladwell can explain, but I can’t, these players start out as potential breakout stars and throughout the preseason ascend experts’ pre-draft ranks at a remarkable pace only to end up in a ridiculous position. Two good examples of this last year were Chris Iannetta and Chris Davis and they both busted.

It is the young possible-but-not-definite studs the experts are in fiercest competition for. And, in pursuit of these players and the potential glory associated with being able to lay claim to landing them, the gurus often outsmart themselves.

As a tangential point to this whole discussion I want to address one more thing you commonly see when these gurus post round-by-round recaps of their all-expert league drafts. Frequently, you will read the author of such columns make a comment along the lines of, “I thought I might be reaching a little here, but I really wanted this player and knew he wouldn’t be available at my next pick.” I don’t understand how that is a viable defense of the pick being discussed. Either you reached, or you didn’t. As I read them, these types of comments reinforce my point about gurus feeling they have to draft guys they talk up for purposes of accountability, even if that player doesn’t represent the best pick.

The way I see it is very simple. Generally speaking, I don’t like or dislike players themselves; the question is the price I’m willing to pay for a player. So, to say that I wanted player X, and I had to take him here makes no sense to me. At every price point or numbered pick in a draft, there are multiple players that are perfectly defensible choices on their own merits. Did you pick one of those players or not? In your mind, does the player you selected have as good a chance as anybody else out there at proving to be the most valuable player (at least to your team) among those currently available? If you want player X, but he’s not one of those players, it makes no difference if that was your last chance to draft that player, no? Am I missing something?

This whole semi-rant comes back to two main points.

One, it’s unwise to pay premium prices for potential. In the early stages of the draft you are investing in production, but you are also paying for reliability. That’s what a blue-chip stock is; a relatively non-volatile investment that history dictates will be a sound long-term asset.

Two, a player’s projected production or ADP doesn’t really mean anything in terms of determining whether you got value by acquiring that player. The only value you accrue is the difference between the overall production the player gives you and the price you actually paid for him. A “sleeper” is only a “sleeper” if he’s drafted as such. If you think player X is undervalued at 60, and you draft him at 30, he now has to produce at that level to be a sound investment for you. If he gives you 45th pick value, you were right about your initial read, but you still made a bad pick.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 3:28am

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

The re-emergence of Troy Tulowitzki

Tulo flashing his defensive skills at shortstop. (Icon/SMI)

Some players cause me a great deal of frustration as a fantasy owner; not necessarily because they are on my team and not playing up to expectations, but in this case because they played poorly while on my team and later had their career season while off of it. An example of one of these players is Cliff Lee, who I owned in most leagues for his terrible 2007 season and then, when I had given up on him, he comes back in 2008 to win the Cy Young Award. Similarly, I owned Aaron Hill in 2008 when he batted .264 with two home runs; in 2009, when off of my team, he bats .286 with a whopping 36 home runs.

I have never owned Troy Tulowitzki on a team yet, but I would imagine the people that drafted him on average with the 45th overall pick in 2008 drafts hold similar feelings.

+--------+-----+-----+----+-----+----+-------+
| Season | AB  | R   | HR | RBI | SB | AVG   |
+--------+-----+-----+----+-----+----+-------+
| 2007   | 609 | 104 | 24 |  99 |  7 | 0.291 |
| 2008   | 377 |  48 |  8 |  46 |  1 | 0.263 |
| 2009   | 543 | 101 | 32 |  92 | 20 | 0.297 |
+--------+-----+-----+----+-----+----+-------+

After a tremendous rookie campaign in 2007 that would have earned him a Rookie of the Year Award in almost any other year had it not been for an equally impressive Brewers third baseman named Ryan Braun, Tulowitzki flopped hard in 2008.

He struggled throughout April, until on the 29th he tore a quadriceps muscle and was out until June. After returning from his injury, Tulowitzki played almost at his 2007 level, steadily raising his OPS from .448 to his season-ending number of .732 throughout the second half. Because he played well in the second half, I said that he was "not necessarily someone to avoid in 2009."

In 2009 people were not as high on him as last year, but Tulo certainly was not avoided being drafted around pick 80 in drafts as the sixth shortstop selected. For the people who owned him in 2009, Tulowitzki rewarded them nicely by not only matching his 2007 numbers but by raising them by six points of batting average, eight home runs, and 13 steals.

Tulowitzki had a great 2009 season—no one can deny that—but whether or not he can have a similar 2010 remains a question. In his three years in the majors, Tulowitzki has had his fair share of injuries but has at least avoided any major injuries. Although he probably will not play 150-plus games in a season, he is not too high an injury risk to justify not picking him due to concern for his health.

Power

In the power department, Tulowitzki experienced a major surge, bringing his home run total and HR/FB percentage into new territory.

+------+-----+-----+----+-------+--------+
| YEAR | AGE | AB  | HR | HR/FB | OF/FB% |
+------+-----+-----+----+-------+--------+
| 2007 |  22 | 521 | 24 |    15 |     34 |
| 2008 |  23 | 406 |  8 |     8 |     33 |
| 2009 |  24 | 536 | 32 |    21 |     35 |
+------+-----+-----+----+-------+--------+

Tulo achieved his power numbers not by hitting a ton of fly balls, but by making sure that the ones he did hit left the park. His 21 percent HR/FB rate ranks around such slugger-type players as Jayson Werth, Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun.

Tulo could post similar power numbers next year, but the more likely path is for him to regress slightly and hit a more reasonable 26 home runs. He clearly possess power potential but is not quite at the level where he can be expected to hit 30-plus home runs perennially. Overall I would expect him to hit somewhere in the range of 20-30 home runs next year, and that range can be made more specific once the True Home Run numbers are calculated for 2009.

Speed

Surprisingly Tulo stole 20 bases this year despite getting caught 11 times. That equals a 65 percent success rate, and most players with rates that low steal less bases next year since their base stealing is actually hurting their team's chance to win. For Troy this was not even a fluke running year; his career success rate is 57 percent and in the minors it was even lower, so Tulo should definitely be getting the green light less and less in the future.

At most, he should barely reach 10 steals, but the high single-digits are where I see his 2010 steals totals hanging around.

Plate discipline

Since joining the majors, Tulowitzki has been able to maintain a decently low strikeout rate while adding a few points to his walk rate.

+------+-----+----+----------+------+-------------+-----------+
| Year | BB% | K% | Judgment | A/P  | Bat Control | Bad Ball  |
+------+-----+----+----------+------+-------------+-----------+
| 2007 |   9 | 21 |     105  | 0.21 |        87   |       67  |
| 2008 |   9 | 15 |     104  | 0.15 |        89   |       72  |
| 2009 |  12 | 21 |     109  | 0.12 |        88   |       73  |
+------+-----+----+----------+------+-------------+-----------+

As the other stats show (for a refresher on them click here), Tulo has increased his pitch judgment slightly over the past few years while also getting better at making contact with the pitches outside of the zone. His A/P shows that he has become progressively a more passive hitter in his three years in the majors, explaining the increase in BB percentage. He has, overall, above-average plate discipline that should allow him to continue to post solid batting averages in the .290s to low .300s.

Final thoughts

In 2009, Troy Tulowitzki emerged again as a premier shortstop, and he should be drafted in 2010 leagues accordingly. The last time he was coming off a good season he did disappoint in the next one; however, no logical reasoning points to why that would happen again.

An injury is much more likely to ruin his upcoming season than anything else, and Tulowitzki is only a marginal injury risk compared to other shortstops like Jose Reyes and Rafael Furcal. My feeling, however, is that Tulowitzki will be taken too high for my liking in most drafts since people may expect another 30/20 season from him when really 25/7 is a more likely line. Tulowitzki is a great ballplayer, but the home run/steals combination he flashed in 2009 was likely a one-hit wonder.

Posted by Paul Singman at 5:18am

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Monday, November 02, 2009

Approaching unconscious competence