THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Mike Silver at 1:05am (4) Comments

Thursday, December 03, 2009

‘Tis the season

Who's laughing now? (Icon/SMI)

Now's the time of year for mistletoe, embarrassing incidents at Christmas parties and rule changes to your league. People naturally have opinions about the various rules that are needed to set up a league. I'm sure there have been thousands of e-mail exchanges and gigabytes of blog space devoted to everything from draft versus auction all the way down to two- versus three-day consideration periods for trades. The best leagues—the stable, friendly leagues where players enjoy playing with each other year after year—earn and maintain a consensus on the rules. The important rules are discussed and decisions are made as democratically as possible.

Rule changes are easiest when the only thing at stake are your league-mates' opinions on the matter. Once there is actually fantasy success on the line, it becomes much harder. Just try changing from a draft to an auction league after the draft order has been set. Depending on the rule change you want to make, interests can become entrenched quite soon. Keeper leagues basically have no easy window in which to change rules, but things only become harder once players start signing with new teams in the offseason, much less when injuries information starts coming in during spring training.

I've written a bit about this last offseason. So this offseason I want to throw in something more fun. In leagues where the competition is as much about fun as it is about pride, there are little things you can try to mix things up a bit. I'm just throwing out a few—this list is not exhaustive. Having just thought of them, I've never tried any of them myself and so would naturally be curious if you do try one of these (or something like it) out.

The Secret Santa, Version 1 (for draft leagues):

Pick a round after the draft randomly (say the 10th round). After the draft, every team's 10th round pick gets put into a hat (either literally or digitally) and then each team picks a new 10th-round pick blindly from the hat. Maybe you were laughing at one of your opponents who picked Oliver Perez during the draft and maybe now you are not. You may or may not want to limit which rounds can be chosen (for instance, not the first five rounds).

The Secret Santa, Version 2 (for auction leagues):

Pick a dollar value randomly after the auction (say $15). Each team must put a player that he auctioned for at least $15 into the hat. It is up to each owner to choose which player from his roster that he wants to put in. Then each team draws blindly from the hat.

Note that for each of these, it is important to pick the round or the dollar value after rather than before the draft/auction. Otherwise, for instance, each team would just pick the trashiest player it could find for the chosen round and each team would cut its Secret Santa player as soon as possible. It might be fun to see the picks for trashiest player, but basically all it would really mean is that your draft would be one round shorter (or the auction money that you had to spend would be $15 lighter).

The DL Dump:

On a random day during the season, every team has to cut any player on its DL. Those players go to waivers. This is a bit tougher since you will definitely need a random-number generator. It would help if it were publicly observable so that all your league-mates, wherever in the world they are located, could see the random number. I suggest using the last two digits of the close of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on any given day. These are numbers from 00 to 99. If the number were either, say, 00, 01 or 02, then that would be the day or week in which everyone would dump their DL. Obviously you'll have to work out the details to make sure folks don't cut lesser players and then stash their DL players safely on their bench.

The Closer Swap:

Same as the DL Dump, except that instead, on the chosen day, each team's leading closer (the one with the most saves at that point of the season) gets put into the Secret Santa hat.

Needless to say, all of these fun things are the equivalent of wild-card poker. They don't really add to the skill element of the game. Instead they just introduce lotteries—randomness that can make the luckiest man the winner. Generally speaking, I'm for rules that reduce the luck element of the game. But a little bit of luck, if structured in a fun way, can make the league more social, particularly at points of the season where there's not much talking going on.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 6:20am (0) Comments

Top 10 prospects for 2010: Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics

Los Angeles Angels

1. Hank Conger: Sporting an exceptional bat for a backstop, Conger is one of the best catching prospects in baseball. The Angels hope that his defense continues to improve with experience and that his injury history is a thing of the past. Both questions are holding him back.
2. Trevor Reckling: Reckling has an impressive repertoire that separates him from the average pitcher, which the rest of his game reminds me of. His velocity is average and probably topped out, but with increased control of his entire arsenal he could become a No. 2 starter.
3. Mike Trout: Trout has athleticism in spades, leading me to believe that his speed will be an asset going forward and his defensive abilities will shine in center field. I'm not fully buying into his bat potential, however. Right now his power projects to be above average at best for a center fielder. He has obvious room to grow, though.
4. Randal Grichuk: His bat is undisciplined and littered with holes, and his defense may be a liability when all is said and done. But Grichuk's power potential is eye-popping, and I'm buying into it.
5. Jordan Walden: Walden is a one-trick pony right now, his enviable fastball being the one trick. His overall repertoire and lack of control were exposed during his brief Texas League run in 2009. His injury history is also worrisome, but I can cautiously overlook his faults for the time being. He has ace potential, but it's drying up quickly. A breakout 2010 could be in the works, and such a campaign would catapult him to the top of many Top 100 lists.
6. Peter Bourjos: Bourjos brings plenty of speed and defense to the ballpark, and his consistent swing continues to impress. But he needs to take more walks if he is going to flourish in the majors, as his lack of power has become apparent. If everything works out right, the top of the order is in his future.
7. Garrett Richards: Richards has the stuff aces are made of, and it looks like his control and mechanics, his two biggest weaknesses, have immediately taken giant leaps forward since turning pro. I'm somewhat skeptical and want to see him duplicate his success at higher levels before investing further.
8. Chris Pettit: While he will never be a star, Pettit projects as a solid all-around corner outfielder. He has the workable power, speed and contact skills necessary to be a major league mainstay.
9. Fabio Martinez: I have not seen Martinez pitch, but everything I read about him is positive. Whether it's a short write-up about his velocity or a blurb about his tenacity on the mound, he has opened eyes. I, of course, would like to see him at a higher level before I buy in any further.
10. Tyler Skaggs: Every bit of Skaggs is based on projection. He has a lanky frame that will support more weight, meaning more velocity, and he has a few unpolished secondary offerings to work with.
Tough cut: Will Smith

Oakland Athletics

1. Brett Wallace: Wallace doesn't have huge upside, but his bat is as close to a sure thing as you will find. He could be a consistent 30-homer threat, but even if he doesn't quite reach that potential he looks to me like a guy who will flirt with a .300 batting average annually.
2. Chris Carter: Carter is on the opposite end of the spectrum from Wallace. He could become an All-Star, but the holes in his swing and, at times, lack of patience could hinder his potential in the majors. Watch to see if his approach and plate discipline take the next step. Then we can all firmly back Carter's corner.
3. Grant Green: Coming into the 2009 draft, I felt that Green was perhaps the most sure-thing shortstop I had seen in a couple of years, which I still believe. But I also felt that he didn't have as much upside in his bat as your typical first-round college shortstop.
4. Jemile Weeks: His potential for power and speed is a rare commodity from a second baseman. Every aspect of his game needs to take a major step forward before his stock matches his first-round draft status, though.
5. Michael Ynoa: Oakland played it safe with Ynoa's sore elbow, which was the smart move. Before the injury, word was getting around that the sky-high scouting reports from 2008 were largely true. While it was a lost season, it's good to know that the hype is somewhat justified.
6. Grant Desme: Desme has had a cult following among A's fans ever since he was drafted in the second round of the 2007 draft. For a center fielder he has plus power potential, but his bat is littered with holes that need to be filled if he is going to succeed next year when facing Double-A competition. His speed gets too much hype as well. I like him because there is still room to grow.
7. Adrian Cardenas: As a strong backer of Cardenas for a few years now, I have been waiting for his home run power potential to breed results. It hasn't happened. I still like him as an overall hitter, but his All-Star potential has taken a serious hit.
8. Aaron Cunningham: Cunningham is another prospect with a decent power/speed combination. But judging by both his minor league numbers and brief major league debut, he needs time to clean up his plate approach and adjust to the elite breaking stuff he is facing. His upside is still as an above-average major league outfielder, but it's time to show those flashes against the big boys.
9. Max Stassi: Despite his average arm, Stassi is a legit catcher. His bat doesn't offer anything exciting yet, but, for his age, he brings consistency and an above-average approach to the plate. Oakland does think his bat has power potential, however. We will see. He's on my radar screen.
10. Sean Doolittle: Doolittle's future is dependent on how much power he has to offer, which I am becoming more and more skeptical of. He may simply need to have a full, healthy season, but his upside, at this point, looks like nothing more than an average corner outfielder.

Posted by Matt Hagen at 6:00am (3) Comments

Friday, December 04, 2009

Waiver Wire Offseason: NL

This week at Waiver Wire, we add a great new dimension to our analysis: information from The Graphical Player 2010, or GP 2010. Rob McQuown (who writes the AL Waiver Wire) and I are both Associate Editors for GP 2010, working under editor John Burnson, who also publishes HEATER magazine and is one of the finest baseball minds you'll find anywhere. Rob and I have both written for GP in the past, but this is the first year we worked with John on determining the content for each player, from the stats used to how they would be displayed.

GP is in its seventh year and presents stats, commentary, and predictions in a graphical format that packs an amazing amount of information into a small amount of space. The sample you'll see with each player is just a taste of what GP offers, including the mini-browser that allows you to compare similar players at a glance, an incredibly important tool in the fast-paced atmosphere of a fantasy draft.

We'll show you some samples from the graphs in next week's column, or you can see them for yourself by downloading a 16-page preview of the book, or by ordering the book directly from Acta Sports here.

Let your leaguemates settle for the same-old, same-old analysis. Fantasy sports have moved into the 21st century; get the only book that proves it: the 2010 Graphical Player.

Chris Iannetta | Colorado | C
2009 Final Stats: .228/.344/.460

2009 was supposed to be the year Chris Iannetta would consolidate his skills and leap into the top rank of catchers. Instead, he scuffled, spent some time on the DL, and faded enough down the stretch that Yorvit Torrealba was the backstop of choice in September.

That injured hamstring may have contributed to his struggles, by knocking him out of his groove, but it's not the kind of injury (wrist, elbow, back) you expect to have such a dramatic effect on a player's stats.

But if you'd read GP 2009, you'd have seen this coming, since we predicted that 90-point OPS drop, and we also see a rebound in 2010. Looking at the mini-browser above, you can see that his core skills remained relatively steady from 2008-2009, with the exception of a drop in his hit rate.

He lost a bit of patience, evidenced by his .57 BB/K ratio in 2009 (down from .60 in 2008), as well as the drop in BB%. But if you look back at 2007—when he also had a hit rate of 31%—his BA was almost the same. The difference has been in his power, which shows in the rising Bash rate.

That Bash may also be part of his problems, too, as he seemed to wait for the perfect pitch, then swing out of his heels to try and knock it all the way to Montana. A further indication of this comes from Iannetta's GB/FB ratio, which has dropped steadily over the past four seasons, from 1.10 in 2006 to 0.48 in 2009. He also hits much better (and hits the ball much farther) at home, with a ridiculous slash line of .295/.389/.576 in Coors in 2009, and a .167/.302/.353 everywhere else.

He's going to have to learn to swing more and take fewer walks, and stop trying to turn every at-bat into a moon shot. The best thing Jim Tracy could do is to let him watch some tape of Jeremy Giambi, the last guy who turned too passive in the batter's box, and remind him of where Little Giambi is now. If Iannetta can do that, his power will remain and his hit rate will return—and so will those HRs and RBI.

If that happens, will he still be the starter?

Let's not forget that Torrealba didn't supplant him until September, and overall his numbers weren't as good as Iannetta's. Torrealba hit .291/.351/.380, thanks to a totally unsustainable .347 BABIP (his career average is .296).

Torrealba made his hay with RISP, when he hit a jaw-dropping .477/.544/.591. That's another anomaly from a guy who's hit .258/.355/.391 in that situation throughout his career. He was hot at the right time, but don't be fooled—he's not this kind of hitter.

But catching isn't all hitting; it's game-calling, too, and the Rockies liked the way Torrealba called the game. Opposing hitters had an OPS 30 points lower with him behind the plate than with Iannetta. That's to be expected from a catcher who's five years older than Iannetta, and that's the only thing that would keep Torrealba behind the plate more.

The Rockies need right-handed hitting, however, so Iannetta is going to get every opportunity to redeem himself next year. Another positive, and overlooked, aspect of Iannetta's season, is that he continued to mash lefties. In fact, he widened his LH/RH OPS split, from a career .929/.766 to .986/.734. Being unable to hit righties isn't such a great thing, but that split should stabilize and return to his career norms.

Check out those GP comps to see where you'd value Iannetta, but getting a Posada-like season from him wouldn't be a bad thing at all. Torrealba will be waiting if he falters, but GP likes his rebound chances, and so do I.

Geovany Soto | Chicago | C
2009 Final Stats: .218/.321/.381

Soto tested positive for marijuana during the WBC, and things went downhill from there for the 2008 Rookie of the Year. The way he was hitting, and the extra weight he'd gained, it seemed like he never put the bong back down again.

It's more likely that the WBC itself affected Soto, by splitting his attention between two different Spring Training camps and not allowing him to focus on conditioning and getting into a good groove. The positive THC test, however, might have indicated what he spent his Spring Training doing instead of working out.

He started the 2009 season slowly, finally got into a groove in June, then lost a month to an oblique injury. He recovered a bit in September after returning, but it wasn't enough to save a lost season.

Unlike Iannetta, Soto didn't have a likely replacement breathing down his neck, so Chicago was stuck with him—Koyie Hill gave it his best, but even an injured Soto could have beaten Hill's .636 OPS. Hill's game-calling led to an opposing OBP 15 points lower than Soto, but Hill's no Yorvit Torrealba, and he's no threat to do more than just caddy for Soto.

A quick glance at GP will tell you where most of Soto's 2009 season came from: That 28% hit rate sticks out as much as his 38% does from 2008. Otherwise, his skills look the same or even better than 2008—he improved his BB/K ratio from .51 to .65, helped by that 13% walk rate.

His Bash tells you his power is still there and that he's not overswinging the way Iannetta seemed to be. But his HR/FB rate still dropped from 13.7% to 9.5%—that, plus the drop in H%, tells you that he's just not hitting the ball as hard. In the absence of other indicators, I'd have to say that his conditioning is suspect.

Assuming he gets back into shape, the truth for Soto lies somewhere in between his 2008 and 2009 seasons, with the very healthy result you see predicted above. He cruised in 2009, perhaps reading too many of his own press clippings, and will hopefully use his poor performance this year as motivation to improve in 2010. Lou Piniella is certainly an excellent motivator, and he's not likely to let Soto forget how he staggered through 2009.

What's most interesting is to see the comparison between Iannetta and Soto, particularly in their comps in the mini-browser. They're fairly similar offensively, with Iannetta possessing a better batting eye and Soto having more pure hitting ability. That translates to a 5-point differential in SLG and 10 points in BA, which (along with the increased PT guaranteed Soto) is the difference between being compared to Kelly Shoppach or Joe Mauer.

The catcher market is a tight one, and seeing these two side-by-side shows you that you should go the extra buck (or four) to land Soto instead of Iannetta. Both should rebound, but the return on Soto is likely to be much better, even if neither will be the catcher you saw in 2008.

Joe Blanton | Philadelphia | SP
2009 Final Stats: 7.5 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 4.05 ERA

Joe Blanton is a bit like plain yogurt—consistent, bland, and undoubtedly good for you. Until last year, he's been smooth and predictable, with about 200 IP, a FIP in the 4 range, a K/9 rate around 5, double-digit wins, and double-digit losses, though almost always more of the former than the latter. Except for a nice 2007, he's been neither unspectacular or disastrous. GP 2010 calls him "a No. 3 starter's No. 3 starter," about as average as a guy gets.

So what's up with that ridiculous 7.5 K/9 rate in 2009? That's the one thing that really pops out at you from his 2009 line—the other noticeable difference is the 1.4 HR/9 rate, which some might write off as a product of Philly's homer-happy Citizen Bank Ballpark.

But Blanton's HR rate is almost identical at home or away. As with most of his other splits, Blanton performs the same way at home or on the road, against lefties or righties, in a boat or with a goat. It's the same Blanton eveywhere—about the only thing you can count on is that he typically does a bit better after the break.

I'd argue that the elevated HR and K rate are part of the same trend: throwing more strikes. Philadelphia is a strike-throwing team; the Phillies led the NL in K/BB ratio, despite ranking 10th in strikeouts. That's because they're second in the league in BB/9, with a measly 3.0. And, perhaps also not coincidentally, they rank second-to-last in HR/9.

When you've got a strong defense and a good offense protecting you as a pitcher—and a manager who clearly advocates it—you're going to throw more strikes. When Blanton was traded from Oakland last year, he shot up from a 4.4 K/9 rate to a 6.5 K/9, and his HR/9 rate rose from 0.9 to 1.3 HR/9.

This also comes from changing leagues; with one less batter in the lineup in the NL (with rare exceptions, I refuse to count pitchers as "batters"), the guy on the mound can be more aggressive. But it clearly starts with management, as those team stats show.

GP thinks he's going to continue with an elevated strikeout rate next year, with similar results. He's not going to amaze, but he's not going to disappoint, and he will deliver 200 IP of above-average ERA and WHIP. And if you look at his comparable pitchers in the mini-browser, that puts him in pretty decent company.

Blanton's the kind of mid-round, mid-dollar pitcher that can fill out your fantasy roster perfectly. He won't carry your season, but he won't tank it, either. And when your stomach's on fire because your other gambles aren't working out, a spoonful of cool, smooth, bland yogurt might be just the trick.

Next week, I'll take a look at Alcides Escobar, Ian Stewart and Madison Bumgarner, and we'll get a peek at the other half of the GP player writeup.

Be sure to leave your suggestions for players you want me to cover in the comments below!

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am (2) Comments

Waiver Wire Offseason: AL

Dustin Pedroia | Boston | 2B
2009 Final Stats: .296/.371/.447

The “mini-browser” is one portion of Graphical Player 2010 that is NOT “graphical,” but fantasy players love it! Looking at Pedroia's entry, the most critical info is right across the top: position, name, playing time, and projected value in roto dollars and fantasy points both. Then, below, you see comparable players at the position, very useful if you're in the midst of a draft and get sniped (having just completed an expert mock draft, the feeling is quite familiar as this is being written). And, for convenience, data lines (including some standard stats and also core skills metrics) from the player's previous 4 seasons and any minor-league stops in the current season.

Back to Pedroia, he didn't win another MVP, so maybe he should be ignored? This time last year, experts were taking him with all sorts of crazy early picks in drafts and mock drafts. This year, he didn't even win another Gold Glove, even though the guy who did is moving to third base, while Pedroia's organization was thrilled enough with his range to seriously contemplate a move to shortstop before signing Scutaro and ending those discussions.

For 2010, we like Pedroia's chances of adding on to 2009 quite a bit. The only worry point is that 700 PA in a projection doesn't leave much room for a player to miss time. That's obviously not been a worry for Pedroia, but playing second base can be hazardous and the odds may catch up with him someday. His BABIP was under .300 in 2009, which is surpisingly low for a guy who is fast and hits the ball with as much authority as Dustin does. Expect that to bounce back over .310 (career mark of .313), and his batting line to top .300/.370/.450 fairly easily. His incredible hand-eye coordination allows him to post tremendous contact percentages (just 146 strikeouts so far in his career, a total Mark Reynolds could top by August), while still allowing him to swing for power.

It seems safe to assume that Boston will provide a run-rich environment for Pedroia again, even if Bay leaves ... the park is great for hitting, and guys like Youkilis, Martinez, and Drew are good at both phases of offense (getting on base and driving runners in), so Pedroia's stat sheet should be quite full. It's not clear where all of him, Ellsbury, and Scutaro will bat, but he's almost a lock to be 1 or 2 again. His SB total should decline from 20 (slightly reduced PT and 20-8 success rate should lead to reduced attempts), but expecting 15 is still very reasonable ... he did attempt 28 last year, after all.

Josh Beckett | Boston | SP
2009 Final Stats: 8.4 K/9, 3.6 K/BB, 3.86 ERA

Remember back a few years ago, when people were calling this guy “the best pitcher in baseball”? Many experts would tick off the top starting pitchers, and his name would be among the elites. It was sort of maddening to anyone who paid attention to park effects, since he'd posted only a 118 ERA+ before coming to Boston (very good, yes, but far from overwhelming). Amazing what one great game and one good game against the Yankees in a World Series can do for a guy's reputation, eh? Well anyway, he has posted the same ERA+ since coming to Boston, and his postseason results have been more in line with his regular-season results than with previous heroic levels. So, it's easy to forget that Beckett is still plenty good. A 116 ERA+ in Boston probably understates just how good he's been, since his first season was one of “adjustments” (which any Sawx loyalist will insist was his hard-headed refusal to stop trying to force his fastball past people). He gave up a 5.01 ERA that first year in Fenway, and it wasn't a mirage, as his xFIP was 4.70. Since then, he's posted xFIP scores of 3.56, 3.35, and 3.53. And while a 3.50 ERA isn't special, xFIPS don't have as much variance, and 3.53 this year was good for fifth in the AL. And he's been pounding the strike zone, bringing his BB/9 all the way down to 2.0 over the past three seasons. Formerly a seemingly constant threat to go on the DL with some non-severe-sounding injury (usually a blister), Beckett shrugged off his injury in 2008 to log 170 innings and has been over 200 each of his other three years in Boston. Throwing strikes can help with those IP totals!

There's a slight yellow flag with Beckett and his worse second-half performance, as he allowed 15 HR en route to a .458 slugging allowed, but that seems highly likely to be part of the typical undulations of statistics. He was still throwing strikes (.305 OBP against despite a higher-than-usual .307 BABIP), and he was still averaging over 94 mph on his fastball. Instead of worrying about it, we think the positives far outweigh the slight risks. Beckett appears to be a pitching coach's poster boy, a guy who threw hard enough that he could have remained stubborn about not studying to become a more cerebral pitcher. But he didn't. Maybe the 5.01 ERA in 2006 was his wake up call, but whatever the reason, he's much more of a “pitcher” now than he was ... and he still has the heat when he needs it. With this great offense behind him, that makes him a perennial threat for 20 wins, a sub 1.2 WHIP, and as good of an ERA as you can hope for while calling Fenway “home.”

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston | RP
2009 Final Stats: 10.1 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, 1.85 ERA

Did you hear that one about how Boston is going to trade Papelbon and let someone else close? Ha! Papelbon isn't “The next Mariano Rivera,” but if Boston has learned anything from chasing New York all these years, it has to be an appreciation for a great closer (will an appreciation for Hall-of-Fame shortstops come next?) Papelbon isn't regarded as a “team unity” guy, rather more aloof and even “mercenary,” or so the reports go. But, like all great closers, the man has icewater in his veins, and—if anything—becomes even more focused in the most stressful situations. Is this hard to believe after after his four-hit/two-walk debacle against the Angels in Game 3 of the ALDS? Well, we like sample size here, and that thrashing brought his career postseason ERA up to 1.00, and his WHIP up to 0.815. Sure, these are short of Mighty Mario's marks of 0.77 and 0.773, respectively, but we're still believing in the 17 straight scoreless postseason outings as being more significant than the one “problem game.”

For standard fantasy purposes, owners don't care how many saves a guy blows, just the saves total and the other four pitching stats (to a lesser extent). Unfortunately, Boston is in a lot of higher-scoring games, so the save opportunities aren't what you'd hope for from a 100-win team's closer. But you have to win the game to have any chance at a save, and so Papelbon should be right around the 40-save total again, given all the winning Boston plans to do.

Papelbon remains arguably the best choice in closers in fantasy drafts. As can be seen from his mini-browser page, he's worth $21 in AL-only leagues, and he's worth $22 in mixed leagues, as high as any closer with 60 IP projected (Broxton is valued higher due to his 80-IP projection). We wouldn't strive to draft him a “round early” since his walk rate rose to over three per 9 IP (from 1.0 in 2008), but we also don't think there's a good argument against taking him in the first wave of closers, perhaps starting the wave by selecting him. After all, with the big walk increase in 2009, his WHIP still remained under 1.0 (.961).

NOTE: For those who like OPS, here are Papelbon's raw OPS scores by leverage situation (thanks, B-R):
High Leverage: .186/.291/.256 = .547 OPS
Medium Leverage: .262/.311/.262 = .573 OPS
Low Leverage: .229/.273/.422 = .694 OPS

BONUS: Jon Lester | Boston | SP
2009 Final Stats: 10.0 K/9, 3.5 K/BB, 3.41 ERA
Bonus Mini-Browser for John Lester, reviewed on 10/30.

Graphical Player 2010, order now! Here is a 16-page preview of the book. You can order the book from Acta Sports here..

Posted by Rob McQuown at 4:00am (6) Comments

Monday, December 07, 2009

Clone Wars: Jason Bay and Adam Dunn

This weekend I spent a lot of time looking at Jason Bay. Over at Yawkey Way Academy I took a look at Bay compared to Pat Burrell at age 31. Then when deciding who to look at here I found 2009 Bay could have been swapped with Adam Dunn. We won't look at defense here, but it's safe to say Bay was safe from a Dunn comparison out there.

        R    HR   RBI  SB   AVG    OBP    SLG   wOBA
Bay    103   36   119  13  0.267  0.384  0.537  0.397
Dunn    81   38   105   0  0.267  0.398  0.529  0.394

As with defense we just have to address that Bay has better speed than Dunn. While Dunn has previously stolen as many as 19 bases, he was unable to steal any in 2009. That isn't why you would have Dunn on your team anyway, but the few extra steals didn't hurt. Bay has posted double digits for two years straight and the two years before his dismal 2007.

MLB: OCT 10 ALDS - Game 2 - Red Sox at Angels
9 October 2009: Boston Red Sox left fielder Jason Bay (44) during a game against the Los Angeles Angels during ALDS Game Two at Angels Stadium in Anaheim, CA. (Icon/SMI)

Before 2009 Bay had a better average and would avoid comparisons to Dunn, but in 2009 his strikeout rate jumped to 30.4%. That is what mostly accounted for the .267 average this year and with continued age Bay shouldn't expect to get better at making contact. Dunn, on the other hand, has always hacked away and his strikeout rate matched his career rate at 32.4%. His average improved with a BABIP at .326, which was up from his career rate of .294. This shouldn't last since he's in a neutral park after years in a huge hitters' park.

One of the biggest changes to put these two so close was the growth in walk rate for Bay. His career rate stands at 12.9 percent, but was at 15 percent in 2009 and helped post a solid OBP. I worry about his newfound ability to walk so much even though adding walks often comes with age. His swinging rates stayed at career levels for pitches in and out of the zone while he made less contact on all pitches. He walked more, though, with his lowest number of pitches seen in the zone. He only saw 48 percent of pitches in the strike zone, which from his career rate is more than 100 pitches less in the zone.

Since Bay is possibly changing teams it may make this comparison even more interesting. If he ends up in a lineup devoid of talent like Washington he could suddenly lose a lot of value with dropping run and RBI totals. He posted third-round value in 2009, but could he suddenly fall to seventh-round value like Dunn if he can't be counted on in these categories?

I don't think Bay has too much risk of seeing a lineup as bad as the Nationals and should maintain more value next year, but it is something to keep in mind. The other thing to be aware of, especially in keeper leagues, is that Bay might someday be pushed to DH. I know I said I would pass on defensive comparisons, but the truth is both Bay and Dunn should be DHs at this point in their careers. Bay is not as egregious as Dunn in the outfield, but his trend of posting UZR/150 numbers worse than -10 is costing his team. If either player ends up in a full-time DH spot they lose some value in your league. For 2010, though, Dunn holds a slight bonus with first base eligibility and outfield.

To their teams they add similar value offensively, but fantasy wise Bay is still the better bet. You have to pay for that, though, and you should be cautious until you know what team he is playing for. A move to a weaker offense or a pitchers' park would do serious damage to his value. If you drafted today, how much would you lower your expectations for Bay not knowing where he would end up?

Posted by Troy Patterson at 5:20am (6) Comments

Does hometown bias exist in competitive fantasy leagues?

Does hometown bias exist in fantasy baseball? If it does, this is obviously something you can use to your advantage when predicting where players will be drafted and when putting together trade offers.

Among casual fantasy players, it seems self-evident that hometown bias exists. However, most of us are in leagues that are pretty competitive. So, at that level, does this bias exist? It would be wonderful if there was some huge databank of fantasy drafts to study this, or if the folks at Harvard would add something like this to their implicit association study. However, neither of these are the case, so we’re left to think about this question anecdotally. So, I’m enlisting our wonderful and knowledgeable readers to chime in on this question because our collective anecdotal evidence has to be better than any of our individual anecdotal evidence.

First, let me offer a couple of thoughts about my experiences regarding hometown players. I live in Queens, New York and root for the Mets, I play in five leagues regularly and I’d estimate that approximately 80–85 percent of the participants in these leagues root for either the Mets or Yankees. Not all of the league participants live in New York City, but most do. Some are transplanted New York residents who have taken their team allegiances on the road. Others have moved to New York, and brought their attachment to their non-New York teams with them.

I am pretty successful when it comes to playing fantasy baseball, and I’ve noticed I rarely own hometown players. I don’t think this is a coincidence. Trying to observe the phenomenon of hometown fantasy bias in New York is a bit difficult, as there just happens to be an inordinate amount of elite fantasy talent on the Mets and Yankees. (Actually, this doesn’t just “happen to be,” the geographically disproportionate skew of talent clearly relates to New York teams’ payrolls.)

It’s hard to say somebody is guilty of using hometown bias to overdraft David Wright, Jose Reyes, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Johan Santana or C.C. Sabathia. And, I’m not sure I can even recall specific draft picks that I thought were egregious examples of hometown bias in my past league experiences. Still, the two statements remain true. I do very well in my leagues, which largely consist of Mets and Yankees fans. I rarely own Mets or Yankees. Intuitively, it just feels like there has to be something to this.

I don’t specifically try to avoid New York players, by any means. I just try to be objective as possible. I consider the stadium and teammates of a player when assessing his value, but at draft time I treat players almost exclusively as data sets. So, I do my best to just ignore whether a player plays for my team or not.

Frankly, there could be advantages to owning hometown players, so it’s only fair to mention them. Three of them strike me immediately.

It is easier to follow the developments regarding hometown players and you are likely to know more nuanced information about them. I’m not sure everybody knows how drastic Lance Berkman’s switch-hitting power splits are, but I’d guess that if you root for the Astros you do. It might be shocking to suggest it wise to platoon a player against left-handed pitching , when he sports a career OPS+ of 147 over more than 1,500 games, but if you’re from Houston, you’re probably nodding. Obviously, it is also easier to follow news regarding injuries and battles for playing time on your home team.

For some, it is just simply more fun to root for players they root for in real life. No matter how seriously we all take fantasy baseball it is supposed to be fun. However, there are counterarguments to the idea that owning hometown players makes fantasy baseball more fun. For one, part of the benefit of playing fantasy baseball is that it forces you to learn more about other players and other teams, thus increasing your appreciation for the sport in general. Also, the laws of relativity apply to fantasy baseball. As great as it was to own Santana and watch him jump out to a .5-ish ERA over his first five or six starts, it was equally disheartening watching him robbed of win after win, turn in many disappointing performances mid-season, and ultimately hit the disabled list. It hurt on two levels.

Considering your leaguemates may have hometown biases, it may also be easier to trade hometown players. Owners less familiar with “foreign” studs may not trust their value, especially when it comes to breakouts. Presumably, Kendry Morales’ hometown fans were conditioned to expect big things from him and became believers in his skills earlier than others.

These points having been stated, if hometown bias is real and you have to bump up your own team’s players to draft them, I hardly think the marginal advantage of being more easily able to follow the news about such players is enough to justify making that move.

So what are your experiences with drafting hometown players? Do you make a concerted effort to draft them, or to avoid them? Do you think hometown bias infiltrates the decisions your leaguemates make on draft day? And, finally, would you posit an inverse relationship between a fantasy player’s overall proclivity for drafting hometown players and his team performances, as a trend?

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 4:59am (9) Comments

Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Player Profile: Tommy Hanson

Now that’s the kind of rookie year you want your top pitching prospect to have. Tommy Hanson exploded onto the scene in 2009, posting some incredible numbers, including a 2.89 ERA, 3.50 FIP, and 116 strikeouts in 127.2 innings. It was quite the year for the young pitcher, as he was able to move from top prospect to bona fide stud in four short months. Not a bad showing for a 23-year-old.

Drafted in the 22nd round out of Riverside Community College, 19-year-old Hanson began his professional career at Danville in the Appalachian League. In a 51.2 innings stretch spanning 13 games and eight starts, Hanson dominated the competition, striking out 56 batters while allowing just nine walks. With a great debut in professional ball, the Braves promoted their budding star to Single-A for the following season.

Hanson picked up right where he left off in 2007 at Rome in the Sally League. Through 73 innings, the hurler struck out 90 batters while walking 26—good enough for a promotion to High-A Myrtle Beach. In his final 60 innings of the season, Hanson continued to dominate hitters, with 64 strikeouts and 32 walks. With 154 strikeouts in 133 innings (10.42 K/9), Hanson made his first appearance on the prospect landscape, ranking as the ninth-best prospect in the Braves organization.

Despite the dominating stuff, however, Hanson’s form needed a little more refinement, as his good walk rates from Rookie Ball and Single-A were replaced by a poor one at High-A. The Braves thought it prudent to let him work out his issues with a repeat performance at Myrtle Beach to begin 2008.

Hanson’s second tour of High-A was short-lived, as his outstanding line of 49 strikeouts against just 11 walks in 40 innings allowed him to punch a ticket to Double-A Mississippi. The subsequent showing at Double-A was impressive as well, as Hanson struck out 114 batters in 98 innings. However, his command issues resurfaced to an extent, as he walked 41 batters (3.76 BB/9), bringing a slight dark cloud over his performance.

However, when ranking young pitchers, stuff trumps all—and Hanson had this in spades. As a result, he rocketed up the prospect charts, placing first among Atlanta prospects and fourth in MLB. Challenging for a rotation spot in spring training of 2009, Hanson was on the outside looking in due to his available options and in an effort by the Braves to delay Hanson’s arbitration eligibility. As a result, he began the season at Triple-A Gwinnett, where he absolutely stifled the competition.

Triple-A was to be a big test for Hanson, as his performance there would determine his timetable for reaching and staying in the majors. Hanson did not disappoint. In 66.1 innings, he was able to post 90 strikeouts while walking just 17 batters. Battling for a roster opening with Gwinnett rotation mate Kris Medlen, Hanson debuted just two weeks after his teammate on June 7.

Hanson fought through growing pains in June despite posting a 2.48 ERA, as he could not find the zone nor strike out batters—leading to a 17:18 walk to strikeout ratio in his first 29 innings. Hanson quickly worked out of this early summer lull, however, with elite performances the rest of the way, including 98 strikeouts against 29 walks in 98.2 innings.

Any way you slice it, Hanson had quite the performance his rookie season. Aside from his struggles in June, Hanson was quite the dominant pitcher. His dazzling 8.18 K/9 rate, including an 8.9 K/9 rate after June, was excellent for a rookie, especially considering his 3.24 BB/9 rate on the season, which included a 2.64 BB/9 line after June.

Just as good as his overall line were his secondary indicators. Hanson posted a very good contact rate at 77.2 percent, which bodes well for his strikeout totals next season. Though his Zone percentage is low at 48.7 percent, this is mitigated by a great first strike percentage (63.4 percent)—meaning that Hanson works from ahead in the count in plenty of his matchups, allowing him to induce plenty of swings and misses outside the zone when the hitters expand the zone late in the at-bat.

This approach works to Hanson’s favor as his stuff worked best last year when he forced hitters to swing outside the zone. Hanson’s O-Contact percentage is well above average at 54.3 percent, which places him in the top 20 percent in the league for the 2009 season among pitchers who pitched at least 120 innings. On the other hand, his Zone Contact percentage was 87.2 percent—right around the league average.

Despite the great success, Hanson still has a coupled points to work on for the 2010 season. With his success on pitches outside the zone, it would help his K-rate greatly if he could induce more swings outside the zone. His O-Swing percentage was right about average at 25.5 percent. While not a bad number, it doesn’t help his strength which is inducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone.

In addition, Hanson could stand to make some improvements on his change up for the upcoming year. He used it sparingly for a reason, as hitters mashed it when he did throw it, leading to a -1.85 wCH/C.

Hanson may also see a bit of regression in his home run rate. A low 6.9 HR/FB rate aided Hanson’s 3.50 FIP last season and this can be expected to equalize in the upcoming season. If Hanson could improve his 0.97 GB:FB rate, it will help mitigate some of this regression. Still, expect his home run rate to rise a bit next year. Also, his 1.18 WHIP will likely rise in 2010, as his very low .280 BABIP should also regress to the league average.

With an excellent arsenal, great pedigree, and stellar rookie season in his back pocket, Hanson seems primed for a great 2010. He shouldn’t be expected to repeat his sparkling 2.89 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. However, a 3.60-3.80 ERA is a good target, with a 1.25 WHIP. A K/9 rate in the 8-9 range seems likely, as does a walk rate right around 3.0 BB/9. Overall, Hanson represents an above-average starting pitcher in 12-team mixed leagues with a chance to outperform these projections and post some excellent strikeout rates. Draft Hanson with confidence. He will make his fantasy owners very happy this year.

VOTE ON NEXT WEEK'S PLAYER PROFILE

{exp:freeform:form form_name="player_poll_decnineonine" notify="mike_silver_thehardballtimes@yahoo.com" required="player" prevent_duplicate_on="ip_address"}

Select A Player:
Jorge delaRosa
Jason Bay
Troy Tulowitzki
Adam Jones
Phil Hughes

Other Players

{/exp:freeform:form}

*Feel free to also use the text box to nominate players for next week's poll.

Posted by Mike Silver at 4:43am (7) Comments

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Top 10 prospects for 2010: Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers

Seattle Mariners

1. Michael Saunders: I have gone on record stating that Saunders is one of the very few prospects with true 30/30 ability. He has the skills to be a .300 hitter to boot. Judging by his brief major league debut, however, I am a bit leery of his ability to fully transition, leading me to believe that he will not live up to every bit of his potential. But he has a legit chance at stardom, and therefore he is the best that Seattle has to offer.
2. Carlos Triunfel: Triunfel's 2009 was cut very short, which is a shame considering his youth compared to the level of competition he was facing. I think he can stick at shortstop, raising his value, and his overall bat is too good to ignore. His stock remains strong in my book, despite the lost season.
3. Dustin Ackley: While he has good bat speed and oodles of polish, Ackley is far too hyped for his projection. His power/speed combination faces question marks transitioning into pro ball and is simply not in the realm of fellow farmhand Michael Saunders' skill set.
4. Alex Liddi: Liddi posted a monster season in the hitter-friendly and age-appropriate California League, but he still has much to prove. Double-A is always the first true test, especially for a player transitioning out of the California League, and I am still quite skeptical of his strikeout rate and ability to hit quality breaking stuff. The Advanced-A numbers cannot be ignored, though.
5. Rich Poythress: Poythress was selected in the second round of the 2009 draft for one simple reason: his mammoth power potential. His bat has holes and is a bit on the slow side, his approach needs work, his speed is a liability, and his defense is limited. But boy does he have a powerful bat. I'm torn on his stock, so I'll just cautiously keep an eye on him.
6. Tyson Gillies: If it weren't for Alex Liddi, everyone would be singing the praises of Gillies. Both starred for the High Desert Mavericks, but Gillies took a different approach. He demonstrated every skill necessary to become a good major league leadoff hitter. As with Liddi, though, I'm hesitating a bit until I see his performance against better competition in a more balanced league.
7. Phillippe Aumont: Everyone loves the stuff that Aumont brings to the ballpark, but, when it comes right down to it, he is now strictly a relief pitcher. While he could become Seattle's closer in short order, his bullpen status hurts his stock.
8. Mike Carp: As a first baseman, Carp honestly isn't anything special, and he probably never will be. But I like him. He has a solid shot at being an average first baseman with his polished all-around bat.
9. J.C. Ramirez: Don't let his California League numbers throw you off too much. Ramirez has good upside with his strong fastball and potentially plus slider. His questionable strikeout total in 2009 does raise an eyebrow, but I'm willing to ride it out for another year.
10. Michael Pineda: For his age, Pineda's control is spot on. His low-90s fastball has plenty of deception and has registered strong strikeout numbers. His durability and secondary offerings are concerning, though, leaving his value in limbo. He is another prospect that will be seeing Double-A competition for the first time in 2010.

Texas Rangers

1. Justin Smoak: The only valid question mark on Smoak's resume is his projected home run power. Otherwise he has everything one looks for in a middle-of-the-order force. Texas could have Mark Teixeira Part 2 in its farm system.
2. Neftali Feliz: After a frustrating start to the 2009 season, Feliz turned up the heat as the weather warmed. His season culminated with a jaw-dropping 31-inning major league bullpen stint that left little doubt about his prospect status. Whether or not he has the repertoire and endurance to excel as a starter remains to be seen, but, if all else fails, he will be a prominent bullpen mainstay for years to come.
3. Martin Perez: It is virtually impossible to have a more impressive resume as an 18-year-old than what Perez can brandish. If you're forcing me to nitpick, his slight build is concerning, leaving question marks about the upside of his velocity, and you always have to be cautious about the arm of any teenage pitching phenom. But that's it. Otherwise I wouldn't change a thing.
4. Robbie Ross: He has a long way to go and much to prove, but Ross has upside in his fastball, despite his short stature, and the makings of a true out pitch with his change-up.
5. Kasey Kiker: It's tough to ignore the bulldog mentality that Kiker brings to the mound. He has to be a bulldog if he plans to survive as a 5-foot-10 starting pitcher. His repertoire is strong and varied but far from ace-like. He is one to watch as a potential mid-rotation starter, but his upside is limited.
6. Michael Main: Many were expecting a breakout 2009 performance, but Main's health had other ideas. His velocity and confidence were down, and his control took a step backward. His immense upside is still present, however. Maybe we will get his breakout in 2010.
7. Tanner Scheppers: Scheppers has a reputation for delivering a plus fastball/curveball combination, but his control and mechanics may need an overhaul before he sees success as a professional. His past shoulder problems throw up a red flag as well.
8. Max Ramirez: The main question with Ramirez still lies in his ability to be a full-time big league catcher. He doesn't project to hit for much of a batting average, but his power is noteworthy, especially from a backstop. I'm willing to overlook his injury-plagued 2009 and give his game a chance to regain its form.
9. Wilfredo Boscan: There is much to like about Boscan's right arm. He has a diverse repertoire that is suited for a starter, his movement is lively, and his control is spot-on. The only thing that leaves him near the bottom of this top-10 list is his shockingly low strikeout rate in 2009. Maybe it's a fluke, but if he doesn't pick up the pace he will have a difficult time succeeding against better competition.
10. Wilmer Font: Font is a young man whose reputation is built on upside. His frame has room to grow, leaving many to believe that a consistent mid-90s fastball could be in his future, but consistent movement from all of his pitches has been lacking. His secondary offerings and control leave much to be desired at this point as well.

Posted by Matt Hagen at 6:20am (3) Comments

This is Page 1 of 3 THT Fantasy Focus pages 1 2 3 >

Now available

Search THT:

THT E-book

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

Baby he was Bourn to run

Looking back

Looking ahead

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Player Profile: Ricky Nolasco and sticking to your guns