THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am (22) Comments

Waiver Wire Offseason: AL

J.P. Howell | Tampa Bay | RP
2009 Final Stats: 10.7 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 2.84 ERA

When fans and batters alike seen Howell throw his weak stuff up there, images turn more toward John Tudor or Jamie Moyer than toward Billy Wagner or Scott Thornton, but that's not a typo in his strikeout rate. And, changing speeds and locations like a featherweight boxer, he's able to KO batters with guile and deception. Right-handers were particularly vulnerable to his bag of tricks in 2009, as his changeup seems to befuddle them with regularity.

Howell is a good candidate to introduce “Sentiment” from the Graphical Player 2010. Sentiment is a calculated stat, not some sort of poll of fantasy owners. As noted in GP, it's “founded on the notion that people's perceptions are driven largely by the most recent performance.” So, a guy like Howell has one of the higher “Sentiment” ratings in the book, at +43, as his 2009 saves pushed his value much higher than it had been in previous years.

The primary knock on Howell was that when he was “promoted” (mainly due to attrition) to the closer role in 2009, he blew 8 saves while only recording 17, an awful rate. Since as long as Soriano remains healthy, it will be a moot point, it's not crucial to figure out whether he's one of those rare pitchers who suddenly turns into a pumpkin when the inning strikes 9, or whether he's just a victim of bad luck and small sample sizes. For the purposes of 2010 value, rest assured that his blown saves weren't due to hitters figuring out his stuff. In save situations, he held batters to a line of .167/.310/.292 against. How they managed to spoil 8 of his 25 save chances is a matter of bad luck, and the fact that he wasn't really used as a “closer” all that often, despite the high number of save chances. A good example is his “blown save” on June 7, when he entered the game up 3-1 with the bases full of Yankees in the bottom of the 8th/1 out, and walked Cano, allowed Posada to reach on an error, gets a groundout allowing a run to fall behind before the Rays tied the game in the 9th, preventing him from taking an “L”.

Some guys just “know how to pitch”, and Howell fits that mold. He's not a fantastic WHIP asset as some setup relievers are, since he chooses to use his pinpoint control to “nibble”, rather than to avoid walks. The result, however, is that he racks up some amazing strikeout rates for his pedestrian velocity, and in general should keep runs scored down, so he should continue to have nice ERAs. His likely usage pattern won't help his fantasy value much since he won't get many opportunities to “vulture” wins, though he's likely still the first option if Soriano gets injures.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay | RP
2009 Final Stats: 12.1 K/9, 3.8 K/BB, 2.97 ERA

Everything Mariners fans feared when this talented pitcher was traded for Horacio Ramirez came to pass in Atlanta. The often-brittle Soriano amassed over 160 inning in his 3 years in the National League, and posted a WHIP under 1.0 while showing now problems handling the 9th-inning role. While in Seattle, he'd shown a large home-field bias toward friendly Safeco Field, but he has been so good that even his road stats aren't bad at all. At first blush, the Rays are getting a pitcher whose K/9 as a reliever is over 10.0 in his career, while his BB/9 is under 3.0. Before 2009, he was moderately HR-prone, but with a career WHIP of 1.0, who cares? And why was everyone thinking that the Braves should be worried they might get “stuck” with such a late-inning monster after arbitration?

We're not going to advise against Soriano, though his injury history makes him a better pick for a team which needs a few breaks to compete than or one which is a heavy favorite and needs more “solid” players. He's failed to reach 15 innings in 3 of the past 6 years, though it's easy to forget that after seeing him in 2009. And the AL East is a far worse pitching environment than any he's ever had to deal with, so expect more of the homers and more WHIP and ERA, too. Remember how rudely Josh Beckett was treated in his first year of exposure to the AL East, posting an ERA over 5. If Soriano tries to challenge hitters as much as he did in the past, he could have a similar learning curve.

Curtis Granderson | New York | CF
2009 Final Stats: .249/.327/.453

Before the trade to New York (see: “hype”), Curtis Granderson could have been the poster boy for undervalued players in the 2010 draft/auction season. GP sums that up with a -50 Sentiment, which is about as bad as things can get for a guy who doesn't lose his job (for perspective, Andy Sonnanstine was -58). With the trade, instead, all his flaws seem to be whitewashed, and people are predicting things like a 40-homer season for him, thanks to the new park. For a fantasy player, there's certainly a lot to be excited about for a guy coming to a great hitter's park and likely batting 2nd (against RHP) in the game's best lineup.

Through the 2006 season, most people were commenting on how much faster Granderson was than his stats showed. Well, his 2007 season showed how right people were, as he racked up an amazing 23 triples to go with his highly-efficient 26-1 SB-CS record. Since 2007, though, his various speed indices have dropped. His triples went down to 8 in 2009, his SB-CS have averaged 16-5 the past two seasons, and his range in CF has declined. And don't expect his SB totals to rise in NY. In both Florida and New York, Girardi has highly favored his leadoff hitters for steal opportunities (and his primary PR - Gardner or Amezaga), while the #2 hitters don't steal nearly as much (a stark illustration of this is Damon going from 29 SB to 12, while Jeter went from 11 to 30 as they flip-flopped roles between 2008-2009).

As far as hitting goes, the new park should really help Granderson. Expecting him to keep up his .818 slugging there is far-fetched, but while most players experience about 4% better performance at home, Granderson's career line at Comerica was just .261/.334/.451, as opposed to .284/.353/.516 on the road. Aside from a minor injury in 2008, Granderson has been remarkably durable, playing 158+ games in 3 of his 4 full seasons. He should be expected to be able to play 155+ plus games in 2010. But “able to play” may not mesh up with “play”, as Granderson also has a well-publicized problem hitting LHP, compiling a career line of just .210/.270/.344 against southpaws. Of course, that means his vsR stats are that much sicker, so maybe fantasy owners would prefer that he not start against LHP, rather coming in as a PH against righty relievers instead. All-in-all, he's a fine fantasy player, though his dwindling steals and vulnerability to LHP keep him from being a bona fide superstar.

Nick Johnson | New York | 1B
2009 Final Stats: .291/.426/.405

Stated bluntly, almost all the other 29 teams should be ashamed of themselves for allowing the Yankees to sign this guy for the relatively modest sum of $5.5 million (with a mutual option for 2011 at the same price). Even if one assumes – reasonably - that his defense has deteriorated with the injuries, and his 2009 UZR (-5.6 runs) is more accurate than using a larger sample size (+3.7 UZR/150 career, for example), he was still worth over $15 million in “free agent dollars”, per fangraphs.com. Unless a fantasy team is in such solid shape as to want to avoid injury risk at all cost, ignoring him on draft day may be almost as shameful to a fantasy team.

Yes, we know that his walks (and HBP) don't help your fantasy team. But even with a BASH (Bases per hit) of under 1.4 in 2009 (from Graphical Player 2010), Johnson was valuable for his batting average, runs, and RBI. Consider that his career BASH is 1.64, and that he'll be in the midst of the great Yankees hitters, and he could end up with 100 runs and 100 RBI with just 20 HR in 140 games played. And when he's healthy, he has one of the best batting eyes around, which he's able to use to be an asset in batting average as well. There's clearly a lot of risk here, and he plays the deepest position in the game, but this is a player who has the possibility to provide a lot of “swing” in the standings, when considering his performance-to-price potential.

Ervin Santana | Los Angeles | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.9 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 5.03 ERA

Ervin was written up already this post-season, but I wanted to do share the GP graphic from him, since he was on my mind. I was invited to participate in a 24-team Scoresheet league with other “media” folks from various outlets around the country. It is quite an honor, and I'm indebted to the opportunities granted me by Baseball Daily Digest and The Hardball Times which made it possible. I mention this because my “initiation” to the league was being called an idiot (in somewhat more polite terms) by another league member after I traded Gallardo to King Kaufman for Aramis Ramirez and Ervin Santana (and 2 other players I probably won't keep). We have to cut to 10 keepers, so superstars are at a premium. So that really puts the pressure on the determination of whether a player is in the 240 best (minor leaguers don't count against the 10-keeper quota). Scoresheet also has a slight AL/NL modification for pitchers, to account for the 8- vs. 9-man lineups. To me, the only real question with Santana is health, and I'm a sucker for recent performances when it comes to health. The Angels expert for GP (David Saltzer) notes that his elbow appeared healed, his velocity was up, and he should be expected to throw 200 innings in 2010, with 15+ wins a possibility. These are all consistent with the Waiver Wire observations I had on 10/23, and I think he's a player who is very likely to be a draft-day bargain in many leagues.

Here is a 16-page preview of Graphical Player 2010. You can order the book from Acta Sports here..

Posted by Rob McQuown at 4:00am (5) Comments

Monday, January 04, 2010

Clone Wars: Yunel Escobar and Marco Scutaro

While 2009 was a career year for Marco Scutaro we won't know until next season what he can really be. His season made him and the younger Yunel Escobar two of the top 10 shortstops in fantasy baseball last year. With Escobar being only 27 this season, he will be much more trusted to put up another season like this if not better in 2010. So far they have been drafted at replacement level in 12-team leagues according to MockDraftCentral going, on average, as the 11th and 15th picked shortstops, respectively. Let's see if one or both might be getting undervalued for next year.

          G   PA   AB    R    HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA     OBP    SLG    OPS    BB%     K%
Scutaro  144  680  574  100   12  60 14  5 90 75  0.282  0.379  0.409  0.789  13.60%  13.10%
Escobar  141  604  528   89   14  76  5  4 57 62  0.299  0.377  0.436  0.812   9.70%  11.70%

Plate Discipline

MLB: JUL 03 Braves at Nationals
3 July 2009: Atlanta Braves shortstop Yunel Escobar in action against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. The Braves defeated the Nationals 9-8 to take the first game of the three-game weekend series. (Icon/SMI)

Scutaro has never topped 600 PA before 2009 (came close in 2008 at 592) and his numbers include a lot of time as a pinch hitter. This is a more difficult approach and his numbers before have shown this. His walk rate has varied but even at his worst it was around 9 percent. Last year though he dropped his swing rate to 34.5 percent as he saw the lowest number of strikes per pitches seen. Even if pitchers attack the zone against him in 2010 you know he can still get on base by taking a walk.

Looking at Escobar, he hasn't quite shown an ability to have the elite walk rate similar to Scutaro even with a similar number of strikes seen. This isn't a terrible thing though as his 9.7 percent is one of the best among shortstops. He does make up for this by swinging more than Scutaro and making good contact. This has resulted in a better strikeout rate and the two players posted the best BB/K rates among shortstops.

Power

For the first time in his career Scutaro hit double-digit homers, but his overall power numbers look fairly consistent. His career ISO is .119 and only rose to .127 in 2010. There was a rise in his fly ball rate to 43.6 percent, which could help explain his slight power increase. As a right-handed hitter moving to Fenway, he should continue to post SLG numbers near .400.

If we move on to Escobar, we can see he also has a bit more potential for power. His ISO dropped in 2008, but he has a career rate of .125. Since he is only going to be 27, you can see him adding even a bit more power next year. This again gives Escobar a slight edge as he can out slug Scutaro in 2010.

Speed and Baserunning

Overall, looking at their speed score of 4.2 for Scutaro and 3.8 for Escobar they get around the bases fairly well, but Scutaro found some extra steals last season. He topped double-digit steals last year and was caught five times. That isn't a great rate, but his move to Boston shouldn't concern you as they didn't seem to hold their players back in 2009. The Red Sox as a team stole 53 more bases than the Blue Jays.

This is one place Escobar still has some work to do. His success rate was only 55 percent and very similar to his career rate of 50 percent. It looks like Escobar should be held back on the basepaths, but it's unlikely the Braves will do that.

Roster and Lineup

Sometimes it's not always the player you draft, but what team they play on. So far we can see that these two are close, but even batting at the bottom of the Red Sox lineup, Scutaro should see similar chances to Escobar in counting stats. If Escobar sees more time in the No. 2 spot he'll have the lead in runs and fall in RBIs. On the other hand, in the fifth or sixth spot he would probably get more RBIs. Either way, Scutaro is expected to bat somewhere behind J.D. Drew, Mike Lowell and David Ortiz. It's highly unlikely he sees only 227 plate appearances with runners on next season the way he did this year.

Conclusion

In the end it's an edge to Escobar for sure and with youth on his side that makes sense. Still, you shouldn't be afraid to take Scutaro just a few rounds later and have adequately filled your shortstop position. He has earned his time as a starter in the majors as well as a fantasy starter for your team.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 4:33am (0) Comments

New year’s resolutions

As this is my first column of 2010, it seems fitting to offer some resolutions for the upcoming fantasy baseball season. I'll omit a long preamble for a change and get right into them.

I will play in fewer leagues this year than last year. Last year, I participated in five leagues and it was a little much. One of the five is a co-ownership scenario and frankly I let my attention slip a little bit knowing my buddy was there to keep an eye out. My partner is extremely capable, but this whole dynamic was folly for a different reason. The co-ownership league is pretty high stakes and I actually prioritized other leagues over that one because the other four were under my account while the last one was under my buddy’s. So, every time I wanted to toggle into that league, I’d have to sign out of my account and into the other. I know this is really only the most minor of impediments but, in practice, I often resented having to jump back and forth between accounts to manage the other team. While you may be tempted to decide that I am the laziest person alive for actually voicing this gripe, I’d assert that this dynamic is not all that different from the dieting rule that dictates one should never bring the bag of chips to your seat; if you actually have to get up and refill the bowl, you often won’t bother.

The lesson here for all is that in a co-ownership scenario, the owner whose account the league is under should take primary responsibility for running the team. (This was actually the case in my scenario as I’m the “secondary owner” anyway.)

You may be tempted to outsmart this phenomenon and register a separate, third, account for a team with a co-ownership set-up. I’d advise strongly against that, as that would create a situation in which neither owner has “home field advantage.” It’s a lovely, equitable thought on paper, but would be counterproductive in practice.

I will shorten my leash on underperforming veterans. This is a tricky one for me, because as I’ve said many times I like boring older players as value picks and I think I display admirable restraint with the “drop” button. However, sometimes I do hold on to a player too long because I am seduced by his past.

I can’t stress enough that I think it is better to err on the side of caution in the higher end versions of this situation, such as a 2009 David Ortiz. But the real downside of holding a player too long is that it minimizes your chance of acquiring one of those waiver-wire gems that come out of nowhere every year.

Last year I held onto Garrett Atkins and Aubrey Huff long past their expiration dates. I’d like to continue to more finely calibrate my senses when it comes to such situations. To do this, I have to do a better job of realizing when I am beginning to repeat bad habits.

I will not be scared off of last year’s first-round busts. Provided no red flags emerge over the next few months, Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Grady Sizemore are all totally legitimate and sensible first-round picks. One or more of them may slip outside the top 10 or 12. I hope they do in my drafts.

It seems like the top four are pretty set going into next year: Albert Pujols; Hanley Ramirez; Alex Rodriguez; and Ryan Braun. After that, things look pretty open, with players like Chase Utley, Matt Kemp, Tim Lincecum, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, and Prince Fielder all having plausible claim to a first-round selection. Reyes, Wright, and Sizemore still have arguments over any of the players outside that top four.

I will re-evaluate second-tier middle infielders. Last year, I was rather skeptical about the draft positions of many of the second-tier middle infielders and this led me to something of a stars and scrubs approach to filling out my middle infield. I wasn’t sure players like Dustin Pedroia, Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips, Stephen Drew, and Chone Figgins were worth their pre-ranks or ADPs. I tried to nab Brian Roberts in a few leagues as I was pretty certain what he would produce and what I was willing to pay for it, but he went a tad early for my taste a few times and I was forced to wait and hope I could grab a slipping Derek Jeter or an overlooked Jose Lopez. Thankfully, I only got stuck with Jhonny Peralta in one league, though I had targeted him several times. In some leagues I simply spent my first pick on Jose Reyes or Chase Utley. I was right on more of those players than I was wrong. Drew was a total bust and Phillips and Pedroia were not top 25 players. Cano outperformed though and Figgins provided solid value and more than 40 steals, which is important as it seems fewer middle infielders are contributing strongly in the speed department these days. Of course, Figgins will not be middle-infield eligible this year.

This year I think we’ll see Pedroia and Phillips fall to a point at which I’d be much more willing to buy. Jeter’s price will be through the roof though, so I’ll stay away from him. Lopez and Dan Uggla look like they will still be bargains though and Reyes and Jimmy Rollins might be as well. Further, depending on the price, I don’t think I’ll be all too afraid to hitch my cart to the horse named Aaron Hill.

As has been mentioned by some of the readers, it looks as if the complexion of the entire infield is changing from a fantasy perspective. The once stacked third base position is now rather thin, while the middle infield positions are becoming deeper. However, a waning supply of middle infield speed is leading managers who miss out on the elite middle infielder speedsters to look to the outfield to supply more of their speed needs. This seems to drive up the value of corner outfielders capable of tossing in some swipes. Value middle infielders like Lopez and Uggla don’t provide any steals, meaning that those 15 or 20 steals from a Braun or Matt Holliday are that much more important to the balance of your team.

What are your resolutions for the upcoming fantasy baseball season?

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 4:47am (5) Comments

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Thinking outside the strikeout

As fantasy players we have a tendency to adore the strikeout and generally speaking, I agree with that adoration. After all, strikeouts are one of the four categories starters on your fantasy team can contribute to, and strikeout ability is a fundamental aspect of any good pitcher's skill set. If a pitcher is going to get lit up, I'd rather he get rocked a Rich Harden-style four runs in five innings with eight strikeouts than a Fausto Carmona-style blockbuster of five runs in six innings with just one punchout.

Having said that, there are certain pitchers who are able to use guile, command, their defenses—everything except overpowering stuff—to get batters out and be successful at the major league level. Tom Glavine is the poster child for that type of pitcher I suppose.

Because of our fascination with the strikeout pitcher, sometimes pitchers who can still help our fantasy teams with solid ratios and win totals get overlooked. Below I will highlight three pitchers I feel will fit that description in 2010, and despite their mediocre strikeout numbers may be worth a spot in your fantasy rotation.

Rowland-Smith throwing his patented curveball in a game against the Angels. (Icon/SMI)

Ryan Rowland-Smith

Rowland-Smith is a 26-year-old (will be 27 for the 2010 season) pitcher for the Mariners and was born in Australia. He came up through the Mariners system primarily as a reliever and was converted to a starting pitcher in the middle of the 2008 season. In 253 career innings pitched from 2007 to 2009 he has a 3.62 ERA despite a 4.28 FIP and even uglier 4.78 xFIP.

Rowland-Smith is the type of pitcher who I can see consistently beating out his FIP numbers because he is currently situated in the perfect environment for him. He is primarily a flyball pitcher in Safeco, a home run-depressing park, and in front of one of the best defensive teams in the major leagues with Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro in the outfield, and Jack Wilson and Chone Figgins in the infield.

Despite having the skill set of a pitcher with an ERA in the mid-4.00s, Rowland-Smith can instead be expected to have an ERA around the 4.00 mark. Couple that with something around 10 wins and 100 strikeouts and you have yourself a pitcher I would not mind drafting in the last round of a draft, a place you can reasonably expect to find him.

Justin Duchscherer

Duchscherer is not a guy with blowaway stuff and as the joke goes, he throws "slow and slowerer." In the same article former A's catcher Jason Kendall said:

I remember when I was a kid, hearing my Dad (former big-league catcher Fred Kendall) saying some guy had such good control you could catch him in a rocking chair. I wasn't sure what it meant then, but I do now. That's what it's like catching Duke.

Rocking chair or not, Duchscherer is someone who has proven himself a successful major league pitcher both as an elite reliever from 2003-06 and as an All-Star starter in 2008 when he posted a 2.54 ERA in 140 innings of work. Granted that season was buoyed by an unsustainable .240 BABIP, but even with normal regression most agree he would have finished the season with a still-great ERA in the mid-3.00s.

Duchscherer is playing in a similar situation to Rowland-Smith, with a defense that projects to be very good-to-elite behind him and in a definite pitcher's park. The one thing holding him back is his health, both mental and physical. In 2007 his season was cut short by hip surgery, in 2008 he spent two stints on the DL due to biceps tendinitis and more hip problems, and he missed all of 2009 due to elbow surgery, back problems, and clinical depression.

Although he is well-rested and appears primed for a strong return to the majors, once a player is a large injury risk, he remains always an injury risk. I am confident in Duchscherer's abilities when on the field, the trick though, is keeping him there every fifth day. Therefore I would not draft Duchscherer earlier than the last few rounds of a draft, and conveniently he should be available there in most drafts.

Scott Feldman

The third and final pitcher, Feldman is another converted starter who can provide fantasy value despite low strikeout numbers. As a 26-year-old, Feldman experience a breakout season in 2009, racking up 17 wins with a 4.08 ERA in 190 innings of work. A change in arm slot from a side-arm delivery to a three-fourths slot allowed for more sink on his fastball and the development of a

Feldman showcasing his three-quarters delivery and, well, lazy gloveside mechanics. (Icon/SMI)

devastating cutter that ranks as one of the best in the majors are seen as the reasons for his 2009 success.

Feldman was the recipient of some luck in the form of a .275 BABIP and a 9 percent HR/FB rate in home run-happy Arlington, so his 2010 ERA might rise a few points to around the 4.25 mark. However, the groundball tendencies of Feldman should help reduce the ill effects the Arlington ballpark has on its pitchers, and also the up-the-middle tandem of Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler is beneficial to any groundballer.

Overall with the strong Ranger offense providing him with good run support and subsequently a high win total, Feldman should provide fantasy owners with enough value to make a lat- round selection of him in a draft worth the minimal investment.

Final thoughts

Strikeout pitchers may look especially appealing to fantasy owners, but that should not mean that pitchers who find other means of getting batters out should be ignored entirely since there are the few who succeed without generating tons of Ks. Strikeout pitchers, though, will always remain the most valuable and desirable to fantasy owners.

Posted by Paul Singman at 3:16am (4) Comments

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Player Profile: Chris Davis

Coming into 2009, Chris Davis seemed to be on the up and up. With a blazing rookie season that included 17 home runs in 80 games, Davis was expected to lead his owners to fantasy glory. Instead, his game collapsed, as soaring strikeout rates brought down his overall line. Finally spared the embarrassment, Davis was sent down to Triple-A to work on his swing. After being called up in late August, Davis recovered somewhat but still struggled to find his form.

Still, while Davis' slump seemed to come out of nowhere, it was something that all of us could have seen coming. In reality, he's been this kind of player throughout his professional career—a powerful hacker who struggles with strikeouts, showing little to no plate discipline.

Drafted in the fifth round in 2006 by the Texas Rangers, Davis began his career for Spokane at Low-A later that season. The hulking 20-year-old had a good showing there, blasting 15 home runs in 253 at-bats, on his way to a .277/.343/.534 line. His plate discipline was less than optimal, with just 23 walks against 65 strikeouts (25.69 K percentage). Still, his power and projectability meant plenty of room for optimism, as Davis was promoted up the ladder for 2007.

The 2007 season was a big one for Davis. Starting out at High-A Bakersfield, he registered 386 at-bats, slugging 24 home runs. However, he struggled mightily at controlling the strike zone, walking just 22 times to go along with 123 punchouts (31.86 K percentage). Despite his struggles with plate discipline, Texas promoted Davis to Double-A Frisco to finish the season. Here, he displayed exactly the type of raw power that scouts were so excited about, mashing 12 long balls in just 109 at-bats. His poor plate discipline improved somewhat, as Davis worked 13 walks against 27 strikeouts (24.77 K percentage). With the type of raw power and tools displayed by Davis, he shot up the prospect hierarchy, registering second in the Texas organization and 65th in MLB. The sky officially the limit, Davis looked toward 2008 with an eye on improving his plate discipline while maintaining his power stroke.

Davis started the 2008 season at Frisco in a repeat of Double-A. He looked like much the same player as he had been since 2006: tons of power with a poor approach. Logging 186 at-bats, he mashed 13 home runs with just 13 walks and 44 strikeouts (23.65 K percentage) before his promotion to Triple-A Oklahoma. There, he continued his power-hitting ways, with 10 bombs in 111 at-bats, with lots of strikeouts (26.13 K percentage) and few walks. Still, Texas needed help at the dish and the organization promoted Davis, hoping he was ready for Prime Time.

The results were mixed. His overall line was much more than could be expected from a rookie (.285/.331/.549) and his power was superb (17 home runs in 295 at-bats). However, he was very much the same batter he had been in the minors, walking just 20 times but logging a whopping 88 strikeouts (29.8 K percentage). In addition, his triple slash line was aided significantly by a huge .353 BABIP that seemed destined to come back to earth. In 2009, his season came crashing down.

Last year was an unmitigated disaster for Davis. Things started off very poorly and never really got on track. A poor .200/.273/.429 April was followed up by an even worse .189/.238/.442 June. His .202/.256/.415 line before the break caused him to be sent down to Triple-A on July 6. After the dust settled on the year, Davis finished with a .238/.284/.442 line including 21 home runs in 391 at-bats. Not what owners expected.

While there were reasons to be down on his production, there are some reasons to be optimistic. First, it is encouraging that his problems this past season can be very easily isolated—at least statistically—meaning that, if next year is a rebound year, it should be easy to recognize.

There were really two problems that hurt Davis’ production in 2009 as compared to 2008. The first was his relative drop in BABIP, which declined from .353 to .327. Though still high, it isn’t unreasonably so for a player who posted a .361 BABIP in his minor league career consisting of 1,210 at-bats. Still, a drop in BABIP of 25 points would have lowered his 2008 batting average to .268.

Likewise, an increase in BABIP to .353 in 2009 would have brought his lowly .238 batting average to a poor—but at least tolerable—.252. That’s Step One.

Step Two, and the far more troublesome development, is the precipitous decline in his contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone. Other than his BABIP, this was nearly the only facet of Davis’ game that did not improve from 2008. Every other measure of his game took a step forward last season—even if that is not saying much for a player with such poor plate discipline.

Still, Davis was able to improve his selectivity at the plate, improving his O-Swing percentage by 3.2 percent (37.3 percent O-Swing in 2008 versus 34.1 percent in 2009) and increasing his Z-Swing percentage by another 3 percent (72.5 percent in ’08 to 75.5 percent in ’09). This corresponded with a drop in his overall swing percentage by about a full percentage point (54.3 percent in ’08 versus 53.4 percent in ’09). In addition, though his contact percentage dropped by almost five whole points (68.1 percent contact rate in 2008 versus 63.2 percent in 2009), his O-Contact rate was virtually stable, increasing by just 0.1 percent.

Meaning that his drop in contact rate was caused, primarily, by two factors. The lesser of the two factors was the drop in his Zone percentage by 1.6 percent (48.2 percent in ’08 versus 46.6 percent in ’09). This, when taking into account his free-swinging ways, was actually a negative development, as most batters who see fewer pitches in the zone can turn this into more walks. Davis, unfortunately, could not. The second factor—and the one that is far more troubling—was his enormous drop in his zone contact rate of more than 8 percentage points (79.1 percent in ’08 versus 70.8 percent in ’09). This absolutely obliterated his contact percentage, with some gruesome results, which were seen in his 38.4 strikeout percentage—second in the league only to the incomparable Mark Reynolds. Ouch.

But that does not close the book on Davis. The fact that he was still able to put up the power numbers that he did is quite impressive—given his prodigious strikeout rates. Many players, when struggling with such strikeout totals, significantly alter their plate approach and lose much of their power. That Davis did not is encouraging for his power output.

The key for Davis in 2010 will be to recapture at least some of his ability to make contact with pitches inside the zone. He has one of the worst combinations of poor plate discipline and poor contact skills in the league. Until he rectifies these problems, he will struggle to put up any sort of tolerable batting average. For next season, watch his Z-Contact rate and his O-Swing Percentage. If he is able to raise his Z-Contact rate to his ’08 levels and continue to drop his O-Swing Percentage, he could be able to again crack the 30 percent strikeout barrier. This would be a great benefit to his batting average and could bring it back up to the .260s—given that the power is still there, which it should be.

For the 2010 season, don’t expect too much from Davis. A 30-35 home run season with a batting average in the .255-.265 range seems likely, though his OPS may not reach far above .800 due to his lack of walks. In the end, it all rests on that contact rate. If it can get up near the 70 percent range, then he is a good player to target in a midseason trade. If it can somehow get higher than that number, it could be a very good year. Still, temper your enthusiasm, as Davis proved last season that he has serious difficulties hitting major league pitching. He’s worth drafting as an upside play, but don’t be shocked if he annihilates your batting average as he did in 2009. Feel free to draft him, but do it late and with caution—he's a well below-average option at first base. And please, don't pin your home run hopes to his lumber. He'll hurt you in nearly every other category.

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Posted by Mike Silver at 4:55am (5) Comments

Thursday, January 07, 2010

Top 10 prospects for 2010: Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers

Washington Nationals

1. Stephen Strasburg: Perhaps the best college pitcher of all time, Strasburg brings unheard of hype and ability to a Washington organization desperate for a shot in the arm. He is the best pitching prospect in baseball and will challenge Atlanta's Jason Heyward as my preseason No. 1 prospect in baseball.
2. Derek Norris: Despite his high strikeout rate, Norris has the bat of a future All-Star. The most unheralded aspect of his season was the 90 walks he drew in 437 at-bats. His defense is on track for the majors, but needs some work. If he repeats his performance in 2010, we may be looking at a top-10 prospect in all of baseball. But he does need to do it again if he is going to win me over.
3. Danny Espinosa: Despite some holes in his swing, Espinosa has a bit of everything you look for in a shortstop, including above-average power and the glove to match.
4. Christopher Marrero: Marrero has a nice bat, but nothing about it sticks out, especially as a first baseman. He is still young, and with further progression Washington could have a major league asset at first base.
5. Drew Storen: I was surprised to see Storen go as high as he did in the 2009 draft, but his first 37 minor league innings opened my eyes. There is even talk that Washington may turn him into a starter, which would raise his value immensely, but his change-up needs refinement if that is going to happen. There is a lot to like. More than I initially thought.
6. Ian Desmond: Desmond has some workable power and base-stealing ability, but neither skill be will anything more than average in the majors. His defense is his best strength, and his average bat will make sure he has a long, solid career as a major league shortstop.
7. Eury Perez: Perez has flashed his potential at every stop he has made. His bat seems very advanced for his age, his speed will be a weapon, and he has even shown some unexpected power.
8. Destin Hood: With his raw tools, Hood was one of my favorite players selected in the second round of the 2008 draft. Not much has materialized as of yet, which is concerning for me, but he is very young.
9. Michael Burgess: Burgess has plus power, but not much else to go with it. His strikeout rate is troublesome and may be his downfall. Future refinement could be in the works, so it's not time to give up on him yet.
10. Marcos Frias: Scouting reports are tough to come by on Frias, but his numbers are hard to ignore, forcing my bullish outlook. Based off of the brief video and scouting reports I have on him, I am going to take a shot in the dark on a young man with a live arm.

Milwaukee Brewers

1. Alcides Escobar: Escobar will have a long career in the major leagues based on his Gold Glove potential at shortstop alone. His bat continues to make progress every year, but his limited power will put a cap on his bat potential. He could become a .300 hitter, however, and his speed will be an asset. If defense carries any weight in today's game, Milwaukee may even have an All-Star on its hands.
2. Brett Lawrie: While he hasn't found a permanent position yet, Lawrie's bat will play anywhere. He has plus bat speed and a consistent, powerful swing. He will turn 20 by the time the new season hits, but his bat is refined beyond his years. He could be a top-10 prospect in all of baseball by this time next year.
3. Caleb Gindl: I have a hard time finding people who agree with me on Gindl. The scouting reports and his body type are strikes against him, but he has some sneaky speed, thunder in his bat, and a great work ethic. His 2010 Double-A season could be his mainstream breakout.
4. Jonathan Lucroy: Lucroy is another under-the-radar Brewers prospect, but he brings a strong combination of skills to the ballpark. His defense is adequate behind the plate, leaving his bat—namely his superb plate discipline and average power—as his calling card. He could be a future above-average catcher.
5. Eric Arnett: The scouting reports aren't off the charts, but Arnett has great sinking action in his repertoire and has a history of missing bats. His command needs some work, but he has a great shot to be a middle-of-the-rotation starter.
6. Zach Braddock: Braddock posted a quietly dominating 2009 out of the pen, and his slider is a plus offering. It will be interesting to see whether he is destined to work out of the back end of the bullpen or whether his durability concerns are behind him and the rotation in his future.
7. Angel Salome: Salome is an odd prospect in that if he can't play catcher, his size and skill set will not lend themselves to any other position. Yet, he works hard at his defense, and if catcher remains in his future, and everything works out right, his bat, which is inconsistent right now, could be exceptional.
8. Mark Rogers: It remains to be seen whether Rogers' injury history is truly behind him, but 2009 was a promising stepping stone. What keeps me coming back is his electric fastball that, despite the injuries, still sits comfortably in the mid-90s.
9. Wily Peralta: Peralta has a great fastball but little else to work with. His command and delivery are also works in progress, but his strong 2009 stats are a great jumping-off point.
10. Jake Odorizzi: Cody Scarpetta was a tough cut, but Odorizzi has a vast repertoire that I can't turn down. Milwaukee has been cautious with him thus far, but I can't wait to see his full-season debut.

Posted by Matt Hagen at 6:20am (15) Comments

Friday, January 08, 2010

Waiver Wire Offseason: NL

Shane Victorino | Philadelphia | OF
2009 Final Stats: .292/.358/.445

The Flyin' Hawaiian has spent the past three years slowly getting better in every area but SBs, so much better that you might not miss them as much. It's hard to see exactly where those swipes went in 2009, as he set career highs in doubles and triples (his 13 three-baggers led all of baseball). He was dealing with a few lower-body injuries (hip, knee) during the season, and it's possible those held him back, particularly since he never went on the DL and played through them.

The good news is that the rest of his skills remain as good as, or better than, they have been, as you can see from his GP mini-browser. His contact rate is edging ever closer to 90%, extremely valuable for a guy with his wheels, and the rising walk rate is a testament to his improving patience. Though his home run total is his lowest since 2006, those other extra-base hits have kept his SLG and Bash steady; they also indicate that there's nothing wrong with his speed, at least once he's in motion.

Depending on your league and roster, those missing SBs might not be so important, in which case Victorino can help you in plenty of other ways. The contact rate and plate discipline should keep his BA strong, if a bit shy of .300, and hitting in front of guys like Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez and Jayson Werth should keep his run total high.

His rising power and the potent Phillies lineup allowed him to also set a career high in RBI, something GP says should continue in 2010. With his SB total likely to remain in the mid-20s, Victorino will remain one of those players who will help you in nearly every offensive category, without putting you over the top in any of them (unless your league counts triples).

That all-category assistance puts Victorino in some solid comp territory, something else that's evident from the mini-browser: Guys like Andre Ethier, Nick Markakis, and Adam Lind are fine company to keep. He's sure to go early in leagues that tally steals, but Victorino shouldn't be ignored in any league. He ranked 28th in 2009's NL roto rankings, and his solid skill set and good injury history make him a safe bet to reach that same level in 2010.

Matt Holliday | St. Louis | OF
2009 Final Stats: .313/.394/.515

Almost as big a story as last year's Colorado post-Hurdle turnaround was the post-Oakland turnaround of Colorado's former left fielder. After 93 games of .286/.378/.454 baseball with the A's, Holliday was traded to St. Louis, where he nearly outhit Albert Pujols, notching a .353/.419/.604 batting line the rest of the way.

This week, St. Louis inked Holliday to a seven-year, $120 million deal that will lock him up for most of the new decade, and through the rest of his peak years. The question is, of course, how productive will he be? And were the Cards suckers to pay Holliday so much on the basis of 235 ABs?

His core skills in Oakland were still solid, as he put up a .83 contact rate and a .79 BB/K, a level of patience a tad better than he'd shown in the NL. You can't say that Oakland's home field gave him fits, either, since he hit .286/.383/.494 there. His adjustment probably came from two other causes: AL pitchers and a weaker lineup around him. Studies have shown that batting order doesn't make as much of a difference as most people think (though I wonder if any of those studies included someone hitting behind Albert Pujols).

The argument in favor of AL pitchers seems more likely—looking at his splits on Fangraphs, his plate approach was fairly consistent across leagues, though he swung at all pitches about 5% more often with St. Louis, and made contact on pitches outside the zone about 8% more often in the AL.

More significant might be the fact that he saw 10% more cheese in an A's uniform than he did with St. Louis, which isn't surprising, since he clobbered NL fastballs (2.45 RAA per 100 fastballs in the NL, vs. 0.18 on the same metric in the AL). Of course, he hit every kind of NL pitch, with the exception of changeups, better than in the AL, something that's obvious from the league split.

AL pitchers worked him differently, probably because he hadn't seen them as much; as a result, Holliday hit them quite differently. In Oakland, his 15.9 LD% was the lowest in his career, as was his 39.0 FB%. That resulted in another career high, a 13.3 infield fly percentage, as well as a career-low 9.7% HR/FB. He just wasn't making good contact, a clear sign that AL pitchers were keeping him off balance.

Those trends reversed themselves for the most part when he came to St. Louis—his HR/FB% shot back up to 16.7%, his LD rose to 17.3% (still below his career average of 19.7%), and that ugly IFF% sank back to a more reasonable (but still elevated) 9.0. The only trend that remained steady was the elevated FB%, which rose 0.6 percentage points in the NL.

That's not such a bad thing for a guy who converts 16% or more of those to HRs, and it may be consistent with him hitting fourth in the lineup, after mostly hitting third for the past several seasons in Colorado. You might argue that a guy with a consistent contact percentage in the upper 70s and a BB/K rate in the .60-.70 range already had a more slugger-like mentality. His .353 BA with St. Louis wouldn't seem to indicate this, but we're still dealing with a 235-AB sample space.

It's certainly a trend to watch, but for now, rest assured that Holliday's 2010 value should remain very solid. St. Louis is betting that he'll retain that value for quite a long time; I'm not quite so optimistic, but I do like this signing for the short-term. He's going to have plenty of men on base, and if a few of those longballs fall short of the wall for a sac fly or two, he should still collect the RBI.

Matt Klaasen makes an excellent point at Fangraphs that the deal is just an average one for St. Louis, and may hurt them in the long haul, but for now, fantasy owners have to love where Holliday landed in 2010 and beyond. His half-season in St. Louis ranked him merely ninth among 2009 NL hitters in roto production—he's sure to be higher than that over a full season in 2010.

Chad Qualls | Arizona | RP
2009 Final Stats: 7.8 K/9, 6.4 K/BB, 3.63 ERA

People said that Qualls wasn't suited to be a closer, since he relies on a sinker-slider combo to get groundballs, which isn't a typical endgame repertoire. When you want an out in the ninth, you'd much prefer a strikeout to the uncertainty of a ball hit into play (or over the fence if that sinker hangs). Qualls responded to that criticism by putting up those numbers you see up above, including that awesome K/BB percentage.

The only reason he ranked so low in 2009 roto value (31st among pitchers) comes from the 24 measly saves he collected. Nobody thought the D-backs would be so utterly hopeless, and Qualls did well with what he was given, blowing just five saves on the year. The capper (quite literally) to Arizona's lousy 2009 came when Qualls went down with a dislocated kneecap that tore a ligament on the final out of a game on Aug. 30.

Interestingly, the D-backs had dangled Qualls on waivers a few days before, hoping to work out a deal to get some prospects for the rebuilding mode they suddenly found themselves in. Qualls' knee didn't hurt Arizona's season, but it might have kept him with the club. He went under the knife to repair the tendon, but he's expected to be at full strength for spring training.

Arizona offered him a contract rather than non-tendering him, so he'll remain with the team. Will he still be the closer when he does? And will he still be the same kind of closer?

There were some rumors about the D-backs bringing free agent Jose Valverde back to the club and shifting Qualls back to a setup role, but it's unlikely they will be able to do so for Valverde's asking price, and he's the only potential threat to Qualls' job. Nobody stepped up in Qualls' absence, and new signee Bob Howry will slide into the setup role, perhaps in conjunction with lefty Clay Zavada, but neither are serious closer contenders.

Assuming he is healthy in time for 2010, and that the knee has no lingering effects on his mechanics, Qualls should bring the same 2009 skills to the table. That low walk rate may not continue, but the rest of his toolbox looks solid. The only mildly disconcerting part of his 2009 performance was a pronounced platoon split. After dominating lefties over his career (their OPS is almost 100 points lower against him than RHB), their OPS was suddenly 90 points better. This is probably a blip more than a trend, but if it continues, you might see Zavada come in and face some of those tough lefties.

In general, however, most projections (GP included) see him with very similar numbers. The team around him is going to be better than the 2009 model—Arizona's been bolstering the bullpen in the offseason, and their starting pitching should be even better with the return of Brandon Webb. That improvement should increase his 2010 save totals, which will increase his roto value, too.

About the only thing Qualls won't bring you is strikeouts, and the penalty for a hanging sinker is often a longball (particularly in Chase Field), so his ERA is never going to be in the awesome range. But he's a very good closer, someone who can be overlooked by bigger names and faster fastballs, as indicated by the 27 drop in GP's Sentiment. You might sneak Qualls in under the radar for owners frightened of Arizona's 2009 performance, his relatively low ranking, or his knee injury.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York | RP
2009 Final Stats: 9.7 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 3.71 ERA

A lot of things went wrong with the Mets' season, and K-Rod's dropoff seemed like the least of their worries. Given the serious cabbage ($37M) they shelled out to him in that three-year deal, however, perhaps they ought to be a bit more worried. K-Rod still averaged a strikeout an inning in 2009, but that K/9 was his lowest level since 2003. And his walk rate, which had been elevated three of the past four seasons, cracked the 5.0 BB/9 plateau for the first time. That's what combined to produce that awful control ratio, the lowest of his career.

You could write this off to a change in leagues, which certainly had something to do with it, as did pitching for a team that finished the season 22 games below .500. But there are other areas of concern with K-Rod—as you can see in the mini-browser, that K/9 trend continues a four-year slide, and Fangraphs shows that's happened alongside a rising trend in his xFIP.

Fangraphs also shows that he's increasingly relying on his changeup (he's using it more than twice as much as he did in 2007), coming at the expense of his breaking ball. His hard curve has been one of his key pitches, and while this might mean he's learning to use his change more effectively, it might also point toward elbow pain.

His line drive and fly ball rates were also elevated last year; in isolation, this might be a statistical blip, but in context with these other signs, it's cause for concern. One of the knocks on K-Rod has always been his violent and unorthodox delivery, which makes trainers wince and Dr. Andrews rub his hands at the prospect of another payment on his yacht. The Mets have become notorious for hiding injuries, and they might be doing the same thing with their star closer.

GP and most other predictions see his numbers settling down a bit in 2010, but it's hard to see K-Rod as elite anymore. He'll still collect strikeouts and pull down an ERA in the 3.00 range, and (unless he's nursing an injury) he'll keep saving games for the Mets. Like the D-backs, it's hard to imagine the 2010 Mets stinking up the joint the way they did in 2009, so he should increase his 35 save total, too.

As surprising as it might be to see K-Rod ranked this low in 2009 (30th among pitchers), he'll remain in this same neighborhood in 2010—note that GP projects his worth as just $1 more than Chad Qualls. His days of $20+ returns are behind him. Keep that in mind on Draft Day, and don't overpay for a guy with so many red flags, even if they seem like small ones.

Delwyn Young | PIT | 2B-OF
2009 Final Stats: .266/.326/.381

I covered Delwyn during the regular season Waiver Wire shortly after the Pirates traded away Freddy Sanchez and it seemed like Young might have a shot at 2B or as a fourth OF. As I wrote then, Young's value is centered on his moderate power, making him best as a 2B, not as an OF.

Now that Pittsburgh signed Akinori Iwamura, however, it looks like Young might be a backup 2B and OF, diminishing his fantasy value significantly. The Pirates may like his bench versatility, but his chances of getting regular PT will be slim, barring injury or blockbuster trade. He doesn't have the glove or speed to play center, pushing him to the corners in the OF, where he'll be stuck behind Garrett Jones in RF and Lastings Milledge in LF.

As I discussed last week, there's the possibility that Garrett Jones might shift to 1B if Jeff Clement tanks, which would open up RF for Young. This hardly seems like a good move, however, for either Pittsburgh or fantasy owners. Young provides a smidge of value in BA and power as an NL-only MIF for deep leagues, but he's no starting RF, not even for the pitiful Pirates.

As you can see from the GP mini-browser, Young's skills are below average in most areas, with a contact rate in the same fringey range where his 6% walk rate already resides. If you want a portrait of an adequate benchwarmer, look no further. His projected $8 value was due to the fact that the Iwamura deal didn't go down until after we went to press, which is why his comps look (relatively) gaudy. Interestingly, Aki is among those comps, but I think Iwamura has a much more promising outlook, with superior contact skills and speed.

We'll most likely see Young battle a slightly younger Brandon Moss in spring training for a roster spot, and Young's ability to play a serviceable 2B could be the difference-maker between the two. But unless he's got a starting position at the end of spring training, he doesn't belong on your fantasy roster.

We'll keep going with the countdown next week, along with any other players you might want to see. And if you like the mini-browsers you see, they're just a taste of what you'll find in the Graphical Player 2010, where Rob McQuown (of AL Waiver Wire fame) and I are associate editors.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am (7) Comments

Waiver Wire Offseason: AL

Adrian Beltre | Boston | 3B
2009 Final Stats: .265/.304/.379

Well, much has been written about Adrian Beltre across the Internet, as the M's fans seem to be very vocal in the baseball analytical community and he's been a prime example of a ballplayer who has been under-appreciated by “mainstream” sources. Over at Baseball Daily Digest, there was an article entitled, “Why Your Team Should Sign Adrian Beltre” (written before he signed), and the latest at fangraphs.com concludes with “Adrian Beltre could be your fantasy team MVP in 2010.” And, while people are clearly stating upside scenarios, there are a lot of reasons to be excited about Beltre's future in Beantown.

Mike Lowell has hit .295/.350/.479 in his four years as Boston's third baseman, so it's easy to forget that he was considered a “salary dump” in the Josh Beckett trade, as he had a big contract and was coming off a .236/.298/.360 season with major health concerns. Well, Beltre is hoping to reprise the Mike Lowell Story in Boston, coming off his own miserable season and also having major health concerns. Unlike Lowell, Beltre's hit chart is a bit more distributed, and unless he changes his approach to pull the ball more often, he can't be expected to gain quite as much from playing home games in Fenway as Lowell did, but escaping Safeco (where he has hit .252/.305/.408 in his career) should be beneficial. And the Red Sox are clearly banking on the fact that his awful .179/.299/.232 career line in Fenway Park has to do with the small sample size (just 16 games) and good pitching of the Red Sox.

From a fantasy perspective, it's appropriate to have some measure of caution here. It's too easy to look at the poor stats in Safeco, apply the standard “Fenway Factor” to his hitting stats, and reach conclusions such as, “He could be your fantasy team MVP.” Well, he could be, of course, but Garrett Jones was probably the MVP of some fantasy teams in 2009; planning for that to happen before the season still wouldn't have made much sense. Likewise, Beltre's contract should speak to the fact that nobody is really certain about his health at this point. A $9 million contract, with a $5 million player option for a Boras client who is a slick-fielding infielder in his prime? We're not saying he won't be healthy, but consider Boras' track record. Would he settle for that if he was sure Adrian was healthy? And third basemen with arm problems can go down the tubes pretty fast—just look at Eric Chavez and Hank Blalock. Also, projecting overall stats to explode for guys leaving bad hitting environments can be a dicey proposition. Khalil Green slugged .500 in his road games from 2005-2007, for example. Now he's looking for an invitation to spring training.

In short, we like the overall risk/reward balance with Beltre. And third base in the AL in 2010 is going to be a position filled with all sorts of question marks. Some crazy Scoresheet owner took Jhonny Peralta in the fourth round of a mock startup draft recently, for example—underscoring the positional scarcity (though with a very ill-advised reaction to it). If Beltre's health returns, so should his power, and in that lineup that should mean heaps of RBIs. His batting average should no longer be a problem, as he's always had decent contact skills for someone with his power (under 22% K% for his career). But keep in mind that 2009 did happen, and he might not be back as a force in 2010.

Phil Hughes | New York | SP?
2009 Final Stats: 10.0 K/9, 3.4 K/BB, 3.03 ERA

In a good reader suggestion from last time, the idea of reviewing relievers who qualify as SP for 2010 was mentioned, a la J.P. Howell last year. Now, Hughes faced 158 batters as a starting pitcher in 2009, allowing a batting line of .276/.361/.507. That wasn't what the Yankees and their fans were expecting from the former elite prospect. But, taken under Mariano's “wing” in the bullpen, Hughes had an Andrew Bailey-esque transformation, taking to the relief role like he'd been born to it. The talent which had been spotted in him since before he was drafted poured out as he gained a couple more ticks on his fastball, not having to pace himself for the long game.

The move to relief resulted in a staggeringly good .172/.222/.222 batting line against him in relief—in 193 PA. And, to make matters worse for batters, this wasn't even accompanied by some freakishly low BABIP. .257 is low, to be sure, but not overly so, and not for someone who is dominating at that level. He was best in “high-leverage” situations (allowing just .200/.268/.247 against), and FWIW, allowed a .059 batting average in two-out-RISP situations. In short, he was the Mariano Rivera of the eighth inning.

From afar, it seems illogical to think that the Yankees might mess with something that worked this well. Obviously, “Plan A” for a good young arm is to have him become an excellent starting pitcher, shutting down the other team for 200 innings per season. But if a guy can pitch in high-leverage situations for 1/3 of that much, and perform far better, that's almost as useful. In November, Cashman came out and said that Hughes would be transitioning back to the rotation. But then he traded for Javier Vazquez, and the expectation is that Hughes and Joba will now battle for the fifth starter spot, though it's unclear if trying to get Hughes into the rotation is an attempt to “fix something that ain't broke.” If he relieves, he can still be used as an SP in 2010, and he should be great for ratios in a “punt wins and strikeouts” strategy, but it may be a couple/few years before he has any major fantasy impact ... unless your league uses holds, of course.

Casey Kotchman | Seattle | 1B
2009 Final Stats: .268/.339/.382

Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus editorialized at the time that the trade of Kotchman for LaRoche by Atlanta was the worst deadline trade last year. That's the sort of mystique Kotchman carries still. Kotchman has a great baseball (first) name, is the son of a scout, has a swing that has always made every scout drool and plays great defense at first base. And he didn't just look like a good hitter, he mashed minor-league pitching, while striking out in less than 10% of his at bats. Expectations for him as a first-round pick were somewhere in the Mark Grace to Will Clark range for his career. Hey, everyone loved him, even performance analysts like Joe Sheehan. And why not, with a glove that should save a few runs per year and a .324/.406/.492 career minor-league batting line?

The problem we have here is that Casey hasn't been able to hold a job since “graduation” from the minors. Sure, he still has that glove, racking up 18 runs saved the past three years according to UZR, without even playing full-time. And he doesn't strike out against MLB pitchers (under 10% of his PA for his career). Kotchman will be 27 next month. And, for a while, it was easy to be optimistic about Mighty Casey. He hit well in limited action back in 2005, then missed 2006 with mono. Then, he appeared to “break out” in 2007, raking to the tune of .296/.372/.467 in his first “full-time job”. Even his 2008 was easy to write off as “one of those things,” despite a poor .272/.328/.410 batting line. After all, there's no real reason for him to have just a .273 BABIP, is there?

Well, things got even worse in 2009, and though Adam LaRoche has a history of second-half heroics, getting traded while arb-eligible for two months of LaRoche isn't a highlight on a guy's resume. Getting traded again after the season for a guy who was DFA'd in August was even worse. But Seattle's new GM has shown a consistent pattern of building the team with “defense first,” and Kotchman seems to be the starter in Seattle now. Seattle fan Dave Cameron, in discussing the fact that Safeco shouldn't hurt lefty power, notes, “[Kotchman] won’t have to hit 400+ foot shots to get them out to right in Seattle. But he’s going to have to hit 350+ foot shots more regularly than he has.”

Kotchman has a career batting line now of .269/.337/.406. His OPS+ is 95. These are obviously not acceptable numbers for a first baseman in this era, even if he could field like Keith Hernandez (in his prime, not now). He does have a “normal” platoon split, hitting a slightly better .267/.337/.414 vsRHP, so some edge could be gained by platooning him (perhaps with Lopez if/when Ackley arrives to play second base). We're going to go on a limb and presume that the high Ct% will again push his batting average into the range of helpful fantasy stats, even in a mixed league context. Expecting good runs, HR, or RBI numbers would be too much, but we think he'll hit enough to keep his job and get 600+ PA, which should help him exceed almost all projections.

Brandon Morrow | Toronto | SP?
2009 Final Stats: 8.5 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.64 ERA

We're not going to add a lot to the 11/13 summary, as Morrow hasn't changed since then, but we wanted an excuse to post the GP graphic. But the one factor that needs to be mentioned in big, bold letters, is that he's in the AL East now, and won't pitch for Seattle's great defense in their great park, either. Boston and New York have built offenses based on a philosophy of patience, and that's not good news for a man who struggles with his command. Morrow still has the core talent to be good, but his likelihood of being useful to a fantasy team has been lessened, as in Seattle he might have been able to carve out a decent career walking the tightrope between walks and strikeouts, but not likely in Toronto. Unless he's showing some huge improvement in control in the spring before you draft, he's not a very appealing fantasy prospect for 2010.

Here is a 16-page preview of Graphical Player 2010. You can order the book from Acta Sports here..

Posted by Rob McQuown at 4:00am (7) Comments

Monday, January 11, 2010

Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame pt. 1 (1995 – 2000)

When I was offered this column, I was asked whether I felt I could offer useful recommendations regarding player evaluation. I said that I felt I was adequately, but not exceedingly qualified to do that, but what I really wanted to do was talk nonsense. We settled on a mix of the two, and I think I’ve been giving too much potentially useful information recently; it’s time for something irrelevant to next season, and fun!

Less than a week ago, the Hall of Fame voters elected a player to the Hall who boasts a lower career OBP than Brad Ausmus, while denying entry to a pitcher who had an overall better, but less storied, career than Nolan Ryan. Even with this group as peers, Jay Mariotti was able to find a way to have his idiocy stand out. Hey, the uniquely gifted are often able to rise to the top no matter what!

I’ve seen a few attempts at putting together a fantasy baseball Hall of Fame, but they seemed pretty half-assed, which is fortunate because if the bar was set any higher, this column probably wouldn’t meet it. I’d like to simulate fantasy Hall of Fame voting, year-by-year. We’ll be evaluating players only in terms of their fantasy numbers, you know doing what people like Murray Chass think us round-earthers do all the time anyway.

Here’s how I’m going to approach this. If we consider Danny Okrent’s 1980 league as the generally accepted inception of fantasy baseball and adhere to the rule of the real Hall of Fame that stipulates players must play 10 seasons to be eligible, that means we can begin considering players for the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame when they appear on the 1995 Hall of Fame ballot. This means they’ve played 10 seasons, starting from 1980.

Like the real HOF, the bar for inclusion will be somewhat subjective. I am not going to determine some formula and then elect the top 2 percentile of scorers. I’m simply going to go down the ballot year by year, list the candidates and mention who I would vote for. Hopefully, the subjectivity element helps to get our readers involved in the discussion. I really do hope this – for your sake too, since I’ve decided I can milk a couple of weeks of columns out of this idea by chronicling this thought experiment in installments.

Players will be listed in order of their support for the actual Hall of Fame. Let’s take a look at the inaugural class.

Class of 1995:

Mike Schmidt
Jim Rice
Tommy John
Buddy Bell
Darrell Evans
Kent Tekulve
Bob Forsch
Willie Hernandez
Mike Krukow
Chris Speier
Jim Sundberg
Doyle Alexander
Greg Gross
Rick Rhoden
Manny Trillo

So, Cobb, Ruth, Wagner, Matthewson, and Johnson this was not.

The only player in the inaugural class who would earn my vote is Mike Schmidt. (It is logical that the first few classes will be small because I can only count seasons beginning from 1980, which means that for the first few years I will be discounting chunks of players’ primes while considering their decline years.) Even though Schmidt’s prime began long before 1980, and 1988 and 1989 were not fantasy relevant seasons, Schmidt is an easy choice. He won three MVPs in the '80s. He led his league in homers six times in the decade, RBIs four times, and even paced the league in runs once. He also only hit below .277 once from 1980 – 1987 and contributed double-digit stolen bases three times. Simply, Mike Schmidt was a first round draft pick for the vast majority of the '80s.

I did not vote for Jim Rice and find that kind of funny. I was ardently anti-Rice for the Hall of Fame. But, as a fantasy player all the arguments against Rice as an actual player are moot. He would have regularly been an elite fantasy contributor. Alas, too many of his best seasons were before 1980. Were his 1977-1979 seasons eligible for consideration, I would have voted for him. They aren’t so I didn’t.

Allow me a quick rant here. Ironically, traditionalists often castigate us numbers geeks for looking at players’ Hall of Fame candidacies, and legacies in general, as if they were fantasy players. Rice is one of many examples for which the exact opposite of the charge is true. The inability to see past the surface stats and evaluate the context is what eventually led to his election. Traditionalists like to project their own inadequacies on us heliocentric believers.

Class of 1996

Bob Boone
Fred Lynn
Keith Hernandez
Dan Quisenberry
Frank White
Bill Buckner
Jerry Reuss
John Tudor
Chet Lemon
Bob Knepper
Jeffrey Leonard
Johnny Ray
Claudell Washington

This class looks particularly weak. In fact, the actual Hall of Fame did not induct a single player this year. I voted for Quiz, though not without giving it a fair amount of deliberation. The massive knock against Quiz’s value is that he barely struck out anybody. He also only has about six really solid seasons as a closer. But, that run was pretty damn good. He led the AL in saves five times out of those six seasons and consistently posted extremely valuable ERAs. He racked up 12 wins in 1980 and came close to double-digit wins two other times over those six years. What really buoyed his value to me, though, was that he routinely tossed 130 or so innings, making those rate stats incredibly heavy.

I may live to regret this vote, but that’s one thing that is really fun about doing this exercise this way. I have little hindsight; I’m setting the standards without precedent. Early in this exercise though, I am thinking that the fantasy Hall of Fame will value peak performance more than the actual Hall does. A six-year peak with very little else surrounding it is not good enough for the actual Hall of Fame, but especially when it comes to low-volume stats like saves and steals, short but very high peaks will likely be rewarded handsomely here.

I will avow right here to not compound my mistakes. If I subsequently rue my vote for Quiz, I won’t allow myself to vote for other similarly (un)deserving candidates because I mistakenly voted for Quiz.

Shout out to John Tudor’s 1985 season, by the way. He was nowhere near earning my vote, but Tudor made his owners extremely happy in 1985. He put up one of those seasons that are so stark in terms of value expected to value produced that owners are able to win leagues on the strength of it.

Class of 1997

Dave Parker
Dwight Evans
Ken Griffey, Sr.
Rick Reuschel
Mike Scott
Garry Templeton
Terry Kennedy
Terry Puhl

Nobody earns my vote in another seemingly weak class. Dave Parker was a true five-category contributor in his prime, but he had most of his best seasons before 1980 and never stole more than 12 bases in his fantasy Hall of Fame eligible seasons. He made appearances on fantasy category leader boards, but I don’t think he separated himself enough from his peers to earn my vote.

I am a big fan of the Cobra though, and as a Mets fan thank him for playing a key role in prompting some incredibly bizarre events in a Cincinnati, New York game on July 22, 1986. In the ninth inning, Parker dropped a routine Keith Hernandez fly ball, which allowed the trailing Mets to tie the game and force extra innings. A Darryl Strawberry ejection in the sixth and a brawl in the 10th left the Mets shorthanded on players. This was one of the two brawls, Golden Glove Boxing Association member, Ray Knight was involved in that year (the other was with the Dodgers’ Tom Niedenfuer). In this one, Knight landed one of the best punches you’ll ever see in a baseball brawl square to the jaw of Eric Davis. As a result of this, from the 10th inning on both Jesse Orosco and Roger McDowell were on the field simultaneously, alternating between pitching (based on match-up) and playing right field. Howard Johnson hit a three-run homer in the 14th to ice a Mets win in a game that should get regular airplay on ESPN Classic. Parker also homered in this game. By the way, Todd Worrell pitched and played another position in the same game four times in his career. Not surprisingly, as I remember Davey Johnson, when asked about his Orosco-McDowell platoon, remarked that Whitey Herzog was the inspiration behind the idea. (OK, so ends my audition for writing on the other side of the site too.)

I also struggled with Dwight Evans. Many think Dewey is a true Hall of Famer, and some may think he should have earned my vote here too. In the end, I didn’t pull the trigger though. He had some very good seasons in the '80s and made very valuable contributions in runs, homers, and RBI several times. But, his best seasons were somewhat spread out (which is a frustrating trait for players in the eyes of fantasy owners) and he had a number of solid, but unspectacular seasons in that run as well. Dewey’s impressive defensive resume and superior on-base skills don’t help him here, and I’d be more inclined to vote for him for the actual Hall of Fame. Dewey is another example of the backward charges of the traditionalist electorate. Converse to Rice, the electorate relying too heavily on his counting stats (evaluating him like a fantasy player) obfuscate his noteworthy defensive value and superior on-base skills.

Class of 1998

Gary Carter
Bert Blyleven
Jack Clark
Pedro Guerrero
Willie Randolph
Carney Lansford
Brian Downing
Mike Flanagan
Rick Dempsey

Gary Carter’s career as a fantasy worthy catcher was probably over after 1987. And, his prime began three seasons before 1980. This unfortunate timing precluded him from being a lock. Additionally, we all know his defense doesn’t count.

However, he did make six appearances on the NL leaderboards for RBIs and home runs from 1980 on. He was also extremely durable and reliable during that run. Carter was a known, elite quantity at the catcher position. He earns my vote.

Blyleven, the better-than-Nolan pitcher I made reference to earlier, is unfortunately a victim of timing. Too many of his best season came pre-1980 and he was rather inconsistent through the first part of the decade. As much as it pains me to leave him off the ballot, I must.

Jack Clark was a much better player than he was given credit for and a better candidate than Andre Dawson for the 1987 MVP award. He’s also one of five players who hit 25 homers in a season for five or more different teams – the satisfaction of fellow dork-dom for anybody who can name the other four in the comments section….But, he doesn’t earn my vote.

Willie Randolph also has a fair amount of supporters for the actual Hall, but he was a far better real player than a fantasy player, so he gets no consideration here.

Pedro Guerrero did have some really valuable seasons, but doesn’t pass muster. He was also hurt too often to be a reliable yearly stud.

Brian Downing had a very interesting career and made some owners incredibly happy in 1982, as he would have retained catcher-eligibility from the previous season. If he would have caught just often enough to retain eligibility throughout the mid-'80s, he would have had a shot.

Class of 1999

Nolan Ryan
George Brett
Robin Yount
Carlton Fisk
Dale Murphy
George Bell
John Candelaria
Mike Boddicker
Charlie Leibrandt
Frank Tanana
Mike Witt

Here we have our first very strong class.

I will somewhat begrudgingly vote for Nolan Ryan. He led his league in strikeouts four times post-1979 and finished in the top 3 five more times. However, he only made two appearances on the leaderboard for wins in that time period, seventh in his league both times. He only appeared four times on the ERA board, though he did lead the league twice. He did remarkably well in showing up on the WHIP leaders though, showing up eight times as his wildness had been worked out by this stage of his career. He wasn’t the workhorse he once was in this era though; he only made four post-1979 appearances in the top 10 for innings pitched in his league. The strikeouts and the WHIP are enough to sell me though.

George Brett is a historically great player, but he was kind of Chipper Jones-ish when you look at only his post-1979 seasons. He had great rate stats, and contributed substantially in four categories. (Pre-1982, he stole bases too!) But, by 1983 you could really only expect 125 games per season. Still, the combo of Brett and a replacement would have been elite (like A-Rod this past season). Brett was just too damn good not to be included.

Robin Yount did it all, a true five-category stud who would have been shortstop-eligible through 1985. Subsequent, he became an outfielder, which would have hurt his value a bit (unless you were playing in a league that differentiated between outfield positions, because he was a very good center fielder). Yount was also rather durable, though his overall production did fluctuate a bit year-to-year. The trivia tidbit for Yount is that he has the uncommon distinction of having won two MVPs playing different positions, one as a shortstop and one as a center fielder. …Kind of like Derek Jeter. Oh wait, he hasn’t been moved from short yet AND he hasn’t won an MVP. Sportsman of the Year doesn’t count? Actually, I love Jeter, I kid only to break of the monotony of this Bill Simmons length column.

I did not vote for Carlton Fisk because he had some gaping holes in his fantasy resume. He was fairly unreliable and inconsistent from 1980 on. He missed large chunks of seasons, often posted very damaging batting averages, did not put up the run totals we should expect from an elite catcher, and had few great seasons. I have no problem with him in the actual Hall of Fame, but things like the remarkable physical achievement and value being able to catch more than 2,200 games while posting a career 117 OPS+ just isn’t really relevant for this Hall.

Dale Murphy earns my vote on peak value. From 1982 through 1987 he was probably a first-round value four or five times. He played no fewer than 159 games and could be counted on for 35-plus homers, 100 runs and RBIs or more and .285-plus batting average and anywhere from a helpful to truly impactful stolen base total. I’d also likely vote for Murphy for the real Hall of Fame based on peak value.

George Bell is worth an honorable mention, but was more of what mouth-breathers like to call, “Hall of Very Good.” He did have a few seasons that were, in their context, probably similar to some of Juan Gonzalez’s better campaigns. But, I don’t think he had enough of them. He’s a strong AL-only Fantasy Hall of Fame candidates. (Notice how my entirely fictional institution is now developing offshoots?)

Nobody else is really worthy of consideration here. Though it’s worth mentioning that young Frank Tanana was a damn good pitcher, and people often seem to be unaware of that.

Class of 2000

Rich Gossage
Jack Morris
Willie Wilson
Rick Sutcliffe
Kent Hrbek
Charlie Hough
Dave Henderson
Steve Sax
Bill Gullickson
Bruce Hurst
Lonnie Smith
Bob Welch
Hubie Brooks

We end the first group of classes with another blank ballot.

Goose Gossage didn’t have enough great seasons to earn my vote.

Jack Morris was a well-above average pitcher with nice strikeout totals and win totals. He was extremely reliable and very valuable as a fantasy asset throughout his post-1979 career. But, right now I am protecting the standard with this vote. Morris was rarely elite and as I mentioned earlier, I think we’re going to see a greater emphasis on shorter, higher peaks, and less reverence for longer runs of being a tier-2 player when this exercise is said and done. Maybe his candidacy will be re-evaluated by the Veteran’s Committee in time. (This institution has made-up bodies too, not just made-up offshoots.)

I am very glad Willie Wilson’s 82-steal season missed the cut off. Wilson had only two seasons of more than 50 stolen bases and very paltry appearances on the leaderboards for runs and batting average. I have successfully avoided having to give serious thought to speed monsters who have no place in the regular Hall of Fame until next column, in which I’ll have to deal with Vince Coleman in the class of 2003.

Recap:

So, let’s see where we stand right now, through six classes.

Number of players elected : 7
Number of players elected who have been eliminated for real HOF consideration: 2
Members by position:

C: 1
1B: 0
2B: 0
SS: .5 (Yount is really split)
3B: 2
OF 1.5
SP: 1
RP: 1

Thoughts:

This is harder than I expected. And, I can see how the writers make mistakes without the benefit of hindsight. I tried to really simulate voting as if I was looking at each ballot year by year, so six seasons in the canvas is still pretty blank. Good-but-truly great starters, relievers, and speed guys will continue to give me problems, I predict. Not surprisingly, these are the types of players who we regularly seem to have problems projecting value and draft position for.

Subconsciously, I know that my perceptions of these players as actual Hall of Fame candidates affect the way I view them too. Rice, Bell, Evans… they may be better candidates than I think they are. It’s hard to be objective without running detailed analyses of standard deviations from positional average performances year-by-year. But, I actually wanted to do this exercise without having done that work to more accurately simulate what early Hall of Fame voters were experiencing.

Finally, I am not old enough to have played fantasy baseball in the era of Bell’s prime. So, I don’t have the benefit of being able to say, “Oh yeah, Bell was a top-15 pick every year” just as a useful anecdote.

Still, this has been fun and I look forward to part two and I hope you do too because there will be two more future columns of this. Oh, and by all means, flame away!

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 4:20am (8) Comments

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Friday, January 01, 2010

Waiver Wire Offseason: NL

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Clone Wars: Yunel Escobar and Marco Scutaro

Plate Discipline

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Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Thinking outside the strikeout

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Player Profile: Chris Davis

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Top 10 prospects for 2010: Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers

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Waiver Wire Offseason: NL

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Monday, January 11, 2010

Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame pt. 1 (1995 – 2000)