May 21, 2013
THT Essentials:
And here's the full roster.
Now available
You can now purchase the Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2013, with 300 pages of great content. It's also available on Amazon and Kindle. Read more about it here.
Or you can search by:
THT E-book
Third Base: The Crossroads is THT's e-book, available for $3.99 from the Kindle store. The good news is that anyone can read a Kindle book, even on a PC. So enjoy the best from THT in a new format.
Get your very own THT merchandise from our CafePress store. We've got baseball caps, t-shirts, coffee mugs and even wall clocks with the classy THT logo prominently displayed. Also, check out the THT Bookstore. Please support your favorite baseball site by purchasing something today.
All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a
Creative Commons
License.
|
Tuesday, June 01, 2010
Memo to Ebbets Fielders: Do Not Celebrate Walk-Off Home Runs
The following activities are no longer permitted and will be subject to fines:
(1) Dog-piling hitters of walk-off home runs. The proper etiquette will henceforth be to compose thank you notes in the clubhouse. You are not to write the notes yourself—the risk of puncture wounds and lead poisoning is too great. A stenographer will be made available for your use. You are not to handle the notes in any way lest you be felled by a paper cut.
(2) Do not, under any circumstances, play in the vicinity of Jhonny Peralta. Should the need arise for Peralta to play third base, our infield configuration shall be as follows: Stand behind the concrete barrier we have erected in the far rightfield corner behind the armed guards. You may notice our outfielders there already. You can't be too careful.
(3) These foods will be avoided because of their high quantity of oxalate: Rhubarb, spinach, beets, swiss chard and wheat germ. All have been known to hang out with unscrupulous metal ions, in particular, calcium. The following expression will no longer be tolerated in the dugout: He's got stones.
The Ebbets Fielders Management reminds our players we have an obligation to our fans and more importantly our shareholders to minimize the risk of injury. Only less-risky behavior will be tolerated on the field. You are still permitted to run into walls, hang out with Canadian doctors and eat from the concession stand behind third base where the hot dogs have been under a heat lamp since 1934. You may even block a baserunner in anticipation of a collision at home plate. Unless your name is Kelly Shoppach.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You know your fantasy baseball team is in trouble when you must point to J.D. Drew as the model for good health. Among my Ebbets Fielders in my American League-only roto league, Drew has the sixth-most at-bats.
But it's not the injuries themselves that have been so aggravating, so I tell myself. It's the nature of the injuries. My team, two years in the making in a keeper league, has endured a series of mishaps I simply couldn't anticipate:
(1) Mike Cameron had played at least 140 games in 10 of the past 12 seasons. While I knew he had a string tendency to strikeouts and low batting averages, his health, even at age 37, was not a big concern. Then again, I never consulted a urologist. Damn those kidney stones.
(2) Asdrubal Cabrera normally plays shortstop but was on the first-base side of second base in a defensive shift when Hank Blalock hit a ball up the middle. Cabrera made a diving stop, no doubt the picture of grace, when Peralta, all 210 pounds of him, decided he couldn't stop his own momentum any other way than to find a gentle landing spot for his considerable girth, namely Cabrera's left arm.
(3) I really thought Cabrera was the low point when it came to unforeseen injuries. Then Kendry Morales' teammates did to him what Cuba could not: Disable the slugger. It may have only taken Peralta to take out Cabrera, but Morales is a bigger man so it took his entire team celebrating at home plate. Morales leaped through the mob and landed awkwardly on the one hard surface between him and the dugout. No, not Mike Scioscia's head. Home plate.
After the Morales mishap, Scioscia's issued an edict not unlike mine: "It's happened before in baseball. It's not going to happen again here. We need to do a better job than to get hurt in a dogpile scenario celebrating a win."
Asked the following day what his new guidelines were, Scioscia said, "Any other way than the way we did yesterday."
There's not much you can do as a fantasy owner to avoid the unexpected. I entered this season with a core of keepers who were all young and healthy, guys like Morales, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo, Matt Wieters and Elvis Andrus. At our auction I mostly avoided injury risks, Drew being an exception. I had such a surplus of value among my keepers I could afford to play it safe.
Two months later, the only team in my league with as many injuries is one whose starting staff was anchored by Justin Duchscherer and Brandon Morrow.
I haven't felt this unlucky since I was 16 and I bet the max in a friendly card game called acey-deucey whose object is two draw a card that falls between two cards already on the table. The best odds are when the cards on the table are an ace and a two and I got that hand twice in-a-row, something that happens once over 2,500 times or so. The odds of losing one such hand is 12%, the odds of losing both 1.4% or just slightly more than my odds at the time of me landing a date with the opposite sex rather than a night of poker with the boys. I overcame those odds, with acey-deucey that is, losing both hands. I eventually overcame the odds with the opposite sex too, though it would take another 12 years to convince one to marry me.
I don't have 12 years to wait for my luck to even out in fantasy baseball. I had what I thought was the best team in my league, and even with the injuries to Shoppach, Cameron and Cabrera, I was in first place and still the marginal favorite. Morales may be a game-changer.
I'm not hanging the cleats just yet. Cameron is back, Shoppach will be soon and Cabrera will likely return after the all-star break—I hate that word: Make that the all-star intermission. But my primary league is suddenly more challenging and complex. A week ago all I really wanted was another starting pitcher and I had some excess starters and prospects to rope in someone good. Morales' loss, likely until September, hurts me in three of four categories in our old-fashioned 4x4 league. I may have to bite the bullet on pitching, hope Max Scherzer is truly rejuvenated, and go after a hitter instead.
This alone I know: If me teams manages to win, come October, I will keep celebrations to a minimum.
Posted by Jonathan Sher at 5:31am
(5) Comments
Mr. and Mrs. Smith
Last year I tooted Seth Smith's horn often and while he finished with solid numbers—15 homers and a .293 average in just 387 PAs—his inconsistent performance and playing time made him somewhat of a pain to own.
This preseason I avoided Smith in drafts, despite believing in his abilities, because I did not see much of a chance for him in a Rockies outfield comprised of Brad Hawpe, Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler already. However, cue up an injury to Hawpe earlier in the season and make Fowler look like Miss Teen South Carolina at the plate, putting him back in Triple-A, and voila, Seth Smith gets some playing time.
 | | Smith doing an interpretive dance with the baseball during a game. (Icon/SMI) |
A lefty, Smith still is not playing much against fellow left-handers but is currently getting about 70 percent to 80 percent of the starts in left field and doing enough with those starts to warrant being owned in most leagues. After a slow start to the season, Smith played well in May, batting .306 with four home runs and impressively walked twice as much as he struck out.
I own Smith in most of my leagues, so this is not a case where the broker is telling you to buy something he wouldn't touch. As someone who has been there, I'll warn you that Smith has a way of endearing himself to you and then falling apart just when you have the utmost confidence in him. Right now the winds seem to be blowing perfectly for Smith to continue building off his recent success and if he is unowned in your league I would certainly add him, but just beware that good things tend not to last too long with him.
This recent hot streak does seem different though.
The wrong approach
Coming into the season, THT's projection system Oliver prognosticated big things from Cody Ross and I took a late-round flier on him in a couple of leagues. To me, Ross was someone who could blast about 25 home runs while still maintaining a decent .270s average and racking up the RBIs.
A few weeks into the season I made the tough decision to cut Mr. Ross from my team with little production coming from his bat. To my dismay he was immediately scooped up by another team, making me think perhaps I was premature in cutting him. A month later, however, I am not regretting my decision because Ross boasts a surprisingly high .300 average but is not offering much else.
Now, after reading articles like this one, it just makes me more upset that Ross actually thinks he is progressing as a hitter. He says: "Maybe a couple years ago, I’m trying to hit a home run instead of hitting the ball the other way."
Ross was not batting in the .240s when he was hitting closer to 25 home runs; he was batting a respectable .270. In terms of batting value to his actual baseball team, Ross' production is nearly identical with a wOBA in the .340s. From a fantasy perspective his average for power swap has cost him a lot of his fantasy relevance though.
In most mixed leagues I would not consider him worthy of a starting job, though for NL-only leagues he does provide consistent production with the chance of power binge every so often. In other words, Ross does just enough to keep you interested but won't keep your attention for very long.
Torres emerges
I admittedly missed the boat on Andres Torres a few weeks ago when he was probably available in your league. After the preseason, I thought John Bowker would establish himself at the major league level, but that clearly did not happen. Nate Schierholtz was the second recipient of my endorsement as the player to own in the Giants outfield. And up until mid-May he looked spectacular but since then has been on a nosedive back to a pinch-hitting role.
Amidst those failures emerged Torres as the most advanced and talented of the bunch, currently batting .301 with plenty of doubles and eight steals. His underlying skillset and past production suggest his current production level is for the most part maintainable.
Unfortunately he is probably not available in most leagues anymore, but Torres is the type of player who if he gets unlucky for a short stretch would make a good trade target and might even be dropped in some leagues.
Posted by Paul Singman at 5:35am
(6) Comments
With the season not quite a third of the way through, you should have a pretty good idea of where your team is lacking. Assuming you're not playing in a points-based league, finding players who can significantly help you in a specific area is sometimes just as important as finding players who are capable of helping you a little in multiple areas. More relevant to our discussion here, one-category dynamos are far easier to acquire than their five-tool brethren.
What I'll be doing today is going through the five batting categories in a standard 5x5 setup and giving you a few players who are projected to provide significant help in those categories. Many of these players will likely come at the cost of hurting you somewhere else, but ... we do what we can, right?
Home runs
Carlos Pena: The Rays first baseman is absolutely killing you in batting average right now (batting .177), but he's still hitting a decent number of long balls (eight) and driving in some runs (31). Oliver definitely doesn't see any Triple Crown contention in his future (.232 batting average the rest of the season). It does, however, see him slightly increasing his homer pace, projecting 26 homers the rest of the way. That's the fourth-best projection in all of baseball, and he's probably available for a reasonable price.
Jay Bruce: The Reds outfielder hasn't exactly been having the sophomore breakout some had predicted (.273 batting average, seven homers, 24 RBIs). No, Oliver is not predicting a breakout. It does like him for 22 homers the rest of the way, which is 14th most.
RBIs
Adam Lind: The Blue Jays outfielder has been a pretty big disappointment this year (.224 batting average, seven homers and 26 RBIs). Oliver projects him to right the ship, somewhat, and hit .271 the rest of the way. More importantly, it likes him for 66 RBIs, which would be the 19th-best total in baseball.
Aaron Hill: Lind's teammate is having an even worse start to his season, hitting .163. The power is there, though (eight homers), even if the RBIs aren't (17 RBIs). Oliver sees him considerably ramping up his run production, projecting 63 RBIs. That would be the fourth-best total for second basemen.
Runs
I'll be entirely honest, Oliver's "Rest of Season" runs leaders basically reads like a who's who of fantasy baseball. Not a lot of surprises anywhere in there that are particularly useful. You don't need Oliver to tell you that Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun are going to score a lot of runs this year.
Stolen bases
Nyjer Morgan: If you drafted the Nationals outfielder assuming your SBs were taken care of, you're probably a bit disappointed (nine so far). That .242 batting average isn't exactly endearing him to anyone, either. Well, Oliver projects a much more useful finish. Not only does it project him to hit a downright respectable .279, but it also likes him for 22 steals.
Brett Gardner: So far, the Yankees outfielder has been a pleasant surprise. He's stolen 18 bases (fourth best in baseball) and has scored 38 runs. Oliver doesn't foresee him keeping up the run-scoring pace, but it does like him for 28 more steals, which is the fifth-highest projected total.
Batting average
Vladimir Guerrero: A couple years ago, I wouldn't have bothered listing the Rangers designated hitter on this list. He's currently hitting .328 and has looked like a rejuvenated man. I put him here mainly as a way of saying that Oliver believes that at least the average is real. We're only projecting 334 plate appearances, which speaks to his perceived fragility, but he'll make the most out of them. Oliver projects a .306 batting average, which is the ninth highest.
Martin Prado: The Braves second baseman is another player who's off to a surprising start (.325 batting average and 37 runs). He's also another player Oliver is showing some faith in, making him one of the 14 players it projects to finish the season batting at least .300. Oliver foresees a .302 batting average the rest of the way.
Posted by Jeremiah Oshan at 5:46pm
(1) Comments
Wednesday, June 02, 2010
I've been working on a few things that are taking longer than anticipated, so I figured I'd try a fun little exercise this week. As you know, I'm a big believer in the combination of stats and scouting, having attended the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program last fall. Scouting can provide insight into things that numbers alone can't.
Today, I thought I'd use more subjective means to try and evaluate pitchers who are performing well in 2010 but who have no previous track record of such performance. Essentially, I'll look at 10 pitchers and try to decide if their 2010 strikeout rate success is sustainable using PITCHf/x and other relevant data. At the end of the year, I think it'll be very interesting to go back and see how accurate these end up being.
Projection systems take a very formulaic approach to predicting the future, taking many years worth of data into account and regressing everyone to the league mean. This works very well on the whole, but some guys will get missed in the shuffle, and I don't believe that everyone should be regressed to league average. Some players change in significant ways, and projection systems aren't particularly adept at identifying these guys. The point of this exercise is to try and do just that.
For purposes of comparison, I'll use Oliver's rest-of-season projections and come up with my own rest-of-season predictions so that we have some way of testing this at year's end. Please take my predictions with a grain of salt, though. I'm putting a precise number to it for the purposes of end-of-season testing, but they're mostly just coming off the top of my head, a rough estimation of how I feel about a player. The general point is more important than the precise number.
Now, onto the players.
*Credit to TexasLeaguers.com for the PITCHf/x graphs.
Clay Hensley
IP: 27.2
K/9: 11.39
Previous career high K/9: 6.00
| 2008 | 2010 |
|
|
Hensley was a starter for most of his career and has never posted a K/9 above 6.00. This year, though, he's dominating out of the Marlins pen and could be next in line for saves behind Leo Nunez. I'm definitely buying into Hensley based on a few factors, the biggest being his improved stuff. His breaking ball (which may or may not be two different pitches) is getting terrific movement with a wide range to keep hitters guessing. He's also reversed the usage of his curveball-like breaking balls and slider-like breaking balls, using the curve more, which generates more swings-and-misses. His changeup is being used more often and is getting more sink.
Combine this with Hensley's full-time move to the bullpen and pitching in Florida (which inflates Ks by 10.1 percent), I wouldn't have a problem predicting Hensley to strike out at least a batter per inning the rest of the way.
Verdict: Largely sustain
Oliver ROS K/9 Projection: 6.3
Carty ROS K/9 Projection: 10
Sergio Santos
IP: 18.2
K/9: 11.09
Previous career high K/9: N/A
Santos is a converted pitcher, having been a prospect at shortstop up until this year. While we're dealing with a very small sample (much smaller than Hensley), it does look promising. He's throwing his fastball an average of over 95 MPH, getting pretty good rise and horizontal movement. He's only thrown 45 or so sliders, but so far it appears like a perfectly suitable secondary offering as he keeps it down and gets a good amount of "slide" on it (3.4 inches). He's thrown even fewer changeups, but it looks pretty good as well. I'm not as confident in Santos as I am on Hensley, but I'd have no problem owning Santos and expecting him to continue performing well in an AL-only league. A K/9 over 8.00 seems fine to me.
Verdict: Partially sustain
Oliver ROS K/9 Projection: 7.8
Carty ROS K/9 Projection: 8.5
Vicente Padilla
IP: 21.2
K/9: 9.55
Previous career high K/9: 7.02
| 2009 | 2010 |
|
|
Padilla is currently on the DL (he figures to return in mid-June), but before going down, his strikeout rate was among the league's best. If it looks sustainable, Padilla could be a great bargain right now considering his DL-stint and 6.65 ERA (compared to a 3.92 xFIP). Unfortunately, however, it doesn't look like Padilla will sustain it. His stuff is almost identical to what it was in 2009 (ignore the pitch classifications, regroup them with your eyes and see how everything is moving). Considering that we have nearly 1,500 innings prior to 2010 saying Padilla is a 6.25 K/9 pitcher and no evidence to support a change in skills, I'm not buying into him at all.
Verdict: Full regression
Oliver ROS K/9 Projection: 6.3
Carty ROS K/9 Projection: 6.2
Carlos Silva
IP: 60.2
K/9: 6.23
Previous career high K/9: 4.05
| 2009 | 2010 |
|
|
Carlos Silva is having a career revival in Chicago, and it doesn't look completely unsustainable (yay me! I own him in LABR). The move to the NL helps, and Wrigley boosts Ks about 0.5 percent over the Metrodome (not much, but I figured I'd point it out). His stuff also looks a bit different. His changeup has gained separation from his fastball, thrown 1 MPH slower and getting great tumbling action. His slider has also been slowed down over 3 MPH and is showing more downward bite. Don't expect anymore games like his 11 K outing this past week, but Silva could definitely be a serviceable pitcher the rest of the way (especially in NL-only leagues) if he can keep his walk rate down (which is pretty likely considering it's right in line with his career average).
Verdict: Partially sustain
Oliver ROS K/9 Projection: 4.4
Carty ROS K/9 Projection: 5.6
Hisanori Takahashi
IP: 38
K/9: 10.42
Previous career high K/9: 7.2 (Oliver MLE)
Takahashi is having a terrific first year in America at 35 years old. Unfortunately, we don't have any PITCHf/x data from Japan to compare his 2010 to, so projecting what he'll do is difficult. Still, he has a full repertoire (five different pitches) and pretty good stuff. None of his pitches stick out as being tremendous, but they all appear to be at least league average (except for maybe the fastball, which is only thrown at 88.5 MPH) and two or three are probably plus. I probably won't differ much from Oliver here, as we don't really have a point of comparison and nothing is eye-popping. Plus, most of Takahashi's innings thus far have been in relief, which boosts Ks by around 15 percent on average. He's in the rotation now, and if he sticks there, a K/9 in the mid-to-high-7's seems about right.
Verdict: Partially regress
Oliver ROS K/9 Projection: 7.1
Carty ROS K/9 Projection (SP): 7.8
Carty ROS K/9 Projection (RP): 9.0
Matt Belisle
IP: 32.1
K/9: 9.46
Previous career high K/9: 6.39
| 2009 | 2010 |
|
|
Belisle spent most of his career as a starter, and I always thought he was underrated by the Reds, never really got a fair shake. He was moved to the bullpen in Colorado last year, but still only managed a 6.4 K/9. This year it's above 9.0, although he doesn't appear to be doing anything differently. His pitches are all moving the same and coming in at the same speed (his fastball is actually about a half MPH slower). I think his K/9 might have been a little low last year (it was only 31 innings), but I wouldn't expect his 2010 production to continue.
Verdict: Regress
Oliver ROS K/9 Projection: 5.9
Carty ROS K/9 Projection: 6.8
Sean Marshall
IP: 24.2
K/9: 11.31
Previous career high K/9: 7.99
| 2009 | 2010 |
|
|
Like Belisle, Marshall was a one-time starter, but he never seemed as promising to me as Belisle. His K-rate is absurd this year, but also like Belisle, it doesn't appear to be for real. If anything, his curveball (his most-used and nastiest pitch) looks a bit worse. The rest of the pitches all look similar, and he doesn't appear to have the repertoire of a K-per-inning guy. In all honesty, it would be hard to do that with a fastball as mediocre as Marshall's, even in the bullpen. Most of his secondary offerings are pretty good, but I'm expecting regression here.
Verdict: Regress
Oliver ROS K/9 Projection: 7.4
Carty ROS K/9 Projection: 7.7
Jesse Chavez
IP: 21
K/9: 9.00
Previous career high K/9: 9.60 (small sample)
| 2009 | 2010 |
|
|
Chavez has only been in the majors for three years, and he came into the 2010 season with a career 6.9 K/9 in 82.1 innings. He flashed this kind of dominance just once before (excluding the lower levels of the minors), over 15 innings in 2008 when he posted a 9.6 K/9. Still, there is some reason to be optimistic about Chavez. First, he's now pitching with the Braves, and Turner Field inflates Ks 12 percent over PNC Park.
Second, his stuff has improved a bit. His changeup is running and tumbling more, and he's getting a lot more swings-and-misses on it. He also seems to have added a very nice curveball a mere two weeks ago. If he increases his usage of it, hitters could be in serious trouble. His slider is a solid pitch, and he throws his fastball hard with good rise, so a lot of strikeouts wouldn't look out of place with Chavez.
Verdict: Largely sustain
Oliver ROS K/9 Projection: 7.3
Carty ROS K/9 Projection: 8.6
Roy Oswalt
IP: 69
K/9: 9.00
Previous career high K/9: 8.03
| 2009 | 2010 |
|
|
Oswalt has always been considered an "ace," but he's always achieved it with merely above-average K rates combined with excellent control and very good ground ball rates. This year, he's pushed the K rate into elite territory, but it doesn't look like it will continue. His pitches are moving the same and have the same velocity, so after seven years of sub-8.0 K/9 rates and at age 32, it seems unlikely that Oswalt has suddenly figured out a way to strike out a batter per inning with the same stuff.
Verdict: Full regression
Oliver ROS K/9 Projection: 7.1
Carty ROS K/9 Projection: 6.8
Mike Leake
IP: 66
K/9: 6.14
Previous career high K/9: N/A
I've talked about Leake at length here, and he's continued to pitch well. I like him a lot, so here's my prediction for him.
Verdict: Improve
Oliver ROS K/9 Projection: 6.1
Carty ROS K/9 Projection: 6.7
Concluding thoughts
Feel free to let me know if you have any questions. As I said in the beginning, this is mostly just a fun exercise, but it will be interesting to see how things turn out at the end of the season. And, of course, all the usual PITCHf/x caveats apply.
Posted by Derek Carty at 4:16am
(9) Comments
Last week, we witnessed one of the more bizarre potentially season-ending injuries ever when Kendry Morales broke his leg in the process of an innocuous jump onto homeplate while engaging in a completely routine celebration of a walk-off homer. This instance reminded me to share with you, what I think is a helpful rule that was instituted a few years ago in my main keeper league.
Before revealing the rule, I would like to talk briefly about the Morales injury. This is not related to fantasy baseball, but please indulge me for a paragraph here.
There’s been a fair amount of chatter about whether Morales’ injury will, or more appropriately should change the way teams celebrate walk-off wins, especially walk-off homers. I can only attribute this to the existence of this debate to the 24-hour news cycle, which compels media to grasp for inane content and manufacture controversy. What happened to Morales was a freak accident. His team mobbing him at the plate wasn’t even responsible for the injury. It looked like he landed awkwardly on his leg. This was a celebration-related injury only to the extent that jumping on to the plate is part of the walk-off homer celebration, yet it seems like many of the commentators are gravitating to the team mobbing a player as the dangerous part of the celebration. This makes no sense. Again, this was a freak accident, period! This should not change anything!
Oh, and I suppose some may oppose the walk-offcelebrations on the grounds that they are tasteless or overly exuberant. That’s a totally different argument, and I am not addressing the proponents of that argument. …Chillax, grandpa – did you know that you don’t have to wear a hat and tie to the ballpark anymore either? OK, now I’ve addressed those people.
To the rule. A couple of years ago, my league instituted what we call a conditional, “keeper DL spot.” We had a couple of instances in which a player an owner was planning to keep got hurt for the remainder of a season, thereby forcing the owner to either occupy one of his two DL slots with a player who would never return, ostensibly cutting in half the number of DL spots he had, or in the case of an owner with already full DL, burn a roster spot to retain a player who has no chance of returning or drop the player outright and basically forfeit a keeper. This didn’t seem fair. It’s bad enough to lose one of your core players for an extended period of time, but for the injury to also manifest as an albatross on your roster management is just cruel and unusual. So, we instituted a very simple rule. This rule as written below is my idealized version of the rule, the actual rule in place in my league is a bit different, as it lacks the more stricter clauses of item No. 3 below.
If one of your players goes on the DL, you can, at that point, label him as one of your keepers for the following year and enact the keeper DL clause.
1. Upon enacting this designation, this player must be kept the following season. Surgery goes wrong and six months later you find out he won’t be ready for the following season’s Opening Day, too bad.
2. The player’s owner can then drop the player outright and nobody else in the league is allowed to pick him up. Despite sitting in the free-agent pool, his keeper owner retains his rights.
3. If the player returns from the DL prior to the end of the season, the original owner is not allowed to play him, though he must, at that point, roster the player again within three days of his activation, or the player becomes an actual free agent. The keeper DL rule is set up specifically to apply to players on the DL, and mainly for those who are out for the season. Therefore the player/owner is only protected as long as the player is actually on the DL. The preclusion on using that player in the starting line-up along with the penalty of him then becoming an actual dead roster spot is to ensure owners don’t use this feature as a free, additional DL-spot for any keeper with only a moderate injury – i.e. it’s really only worth it to use this option if your keeper is really out for the season and your DL is already full.
4. The player is still eligible to be traded in the offseason; he does not have to be kept by his previous season’s owner, so long as that owner is able to find another owner who is willing to keep him. Ostensibly, my designating the player as a keeper at the time of injury does not imply that he must be my keeper.
5. Once the keeper designation is made, it is not reversible. For example, Morales’ owner in this league also owns Beckett and Rollins, who occupy his DL spots. This owner can’t enact this option for Morales and subsequently pick him back up when he has room on his DL (say, Rollins returns) in order to revert Morales from keeper-DL to normal DL.
That’s pretty much the extent of it. In principle it is very simple and it doesn’t really have all that many technicalities. Like any good amendment to a league contract, we’ve written it out intending to cover all possible scenarios, but intuitively it is very simple and the “fine print” rarely comes into play.
I’ll sign off this week with two questions to the readers.
1. Have any of you heard of or used a rule like this before, or do you have you own measures to protect against DL-ed keepers handcuffing a team’s ability to make roster moves?
2. Generally speaking, how do you handle your DLs. How many spots do you think is optimal, relative to roster and/or league size?
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 4:27am
(8) Comments
Thursday, June 03, 2010
Ask yourself to think of a random number—any number. Now think of 1,000 more and write them down (no, don't really do this). We can put it through some statistical tests for randomness and I promise you it will fail, probably massively. Not surprising, really—once the number two is on your brain, it can show up in many ways.
You can ask your computer to do the thinking for you and the numbers will be a lot more random-like. But, barring perhaps a quantum computer, these numbers will be, at best, "pseudo-random." There'll be patterns there somewhere. No problem for you as far as fantasy baseball goes, but it does illustrate one thing: Computers and humans can suffer from the same problems, though perhaps not in equal magnitude.
I've been following some little bit of the discussion on the Cardrunners fantasy baseball site—part Socratic dialog, part Crossfire parlay—on the benefits and pitfalls of constructing a model to use to value players. I call it Quants versus Quaints. Here's why.
The Quants want to formally value a player. There are two steps in this process.
Step One: Come up with forecasts for each player based on past performance, present team, league averages, hair color, whatever you want. These forecasts should include (ideally) not only, say, one number for expected home runs, but rather the entire distribution. What's the chance he hits 10, 20, 30 home runs?
Step Two: Come up with a weighting system. This system inputs the forecasts and outputs a value for the player. What you're doing here is putting relative weights on stats. How much is an RBI worth versus a home run? How costly is risk?
Off the cuff, I think mostly the heat in the discussion is over doing the second part. The Quaints believe in forecasts—though some may also believe in mixing in a healthy dose of gut-feeling here ("so and so is gonna breakout this season"). They don't believe (strongly) in value systems for a variety of reasons. For one, forecasts are forecasts and you can get good ones from other places (like using our Oliver!). But value systems are strongly context-dependent, varying from league to league, and varying within leagues over time depending on standing. They often can vary over the course of a draft or auction, too.
The Quaints want to turn the strength of a value system on its head: its constancy.
All a method is doing is asking you to formalize your reasoning. A Quant prefers to ignore anything he can't formalize, and by formalize I mean computerize (or pencil and paper, if you're old-school). If he's deciding between two players with equal numbers, he wants to give them equal value. If he feels in his gut that one is better than another, he wants to know why and then apply that reasoning to all players similarly.
The reason to have a systematic method of valuing players is that your spreadsheet has no bias—or at least it has only the bias you give it. Anything you can do, it can do. Do you think grittiness is an important stat? Then rate all the players on a 1-10 scale (0-1 scale, whatever you want), use "insert column" on your spreadsheet and put in the numbers. Value it as you like.
The Quaints worry about the constancy. What if, after your do your weights, your system spits out David Eckstein as the 20th most valuable player? Clearly even the most steadfast Quant would go by feel and downgrade Eckstein? "If you stick slavishly to your model," they say, "you might make ridiculous mistakes. If you do not, then you might as well just admit you're a Quaint."
"Ah," reply the Quants, "What's to say that your heuristic value system isn't prone to similarly bad mistakes? Don't owners often overvalue rookies and stolen base threats?" It is common sense versus consistency.
What do I think?
A bad value system is no help. It is no shame to admit that you don't have the time or effort or desire or brainpower to come up with the formula and crunch the numbers to come up with your league and time-specific value system. If the best you can do formally is rank batters by home runs, then you're better off sticking with the eyeball and gut method. But be warned—the human gut is notoriously prone to suggestion. Just like all those number twos, you may not notice that your bias is for players who are also good fielders, but there's probably something like that dwelling in your subconscious.
Even the best value systems are going to be necessarily imperfect. A model is, mathematically speaking, a projection—it cannot capture the infinite of life with its finiteness. But if you really are up to it, you can turn any value system—even a Quaint's ranking—into a more formal Quant system. The value of formalizing a Quaint system is that you can try to improve on it for next time—you can formalize and ameliorate your mistakes.
(Here's a rule of thumb for how you would start formalizing a Quaint system. Getting geekily mathematical for a second—you can rank your players however you like. Then take all the forecasted stats you like for all these players, include grittiness or whatever you like. Project (i.e. regress) this ordered list onto the players' stats. (Easier said then done, but if you're a quant-minded Quaint, it is doable. I'm not going to get into details here, though.). Bammo! You have your weighting system.
It'd be harsh to say that a Quaint is just a lazy or inept Quant. Fantasy is supposed to be fun, and for some the Quant methodology is akin to doing your taxes. Quantism versus Quaintism isn't dogma, and you don't have to adhere to one or the other slavishly.
Posted by Jonathan Halket at 6:30am
(8) Comments
Over the past week I have done some tweaking to my top 100 list. I felt like the update from a couple of weeks ago centered more on the scouting reports and videos that I was poring over, not to mention my gut reaction to the goings on of the first third of the season. I tried to focus more on raw stats for this update in hopes of having a more well-rounded list. I hope you enjoy and continue to come back throughout the year, as plenty more updates are coming.
I also took on another batch of prospect notes for this week. Enjoy.
Brian Matusz / SP / Baltimore
I don't see anything necessarily wrong with Matusz from a mechanics, stuff or command standpoint. He's just taking his lumps right now. Most good, young pitchers go through it. Baltimore may move him down to Triple-A Norfolk for a short period of time, just so he can catch his breath, but he will eventually figure out the big league hitters who are giving him fits right now. Pitching in the American League East is not easy, but Matusz is still a great long-term investment.
Starlin Castro / SS / Chicago Cubs
In many ways, Castro is the talk of baseball right now. He has made a seamless transition to the big leagues for a high-profile team that is in search of a long-term face of the franchise. But, ultimately, he may be one of those players who have a bigger impact on their real-life team than a fantasy team. His early offensive numbers appear promising, yet I feel his bat potential is only so high.
Pedro Alvarez / 3B/1B / Pittsburgh
Alvarez hasn't exactly set the International League on fire, which is a bit worrisome. Yet, no matter his struggles, he always seems to have power and plate discipline in his back pocket. But the holes in his swings are turning into a bigger problem than most thought when he was first drafted. He is still a massive work in progress.
Michael Montgomery / SP / Kansas City
Montgomery is displaying a natural mound presence and is attacking the strike zone. He has confidence in all three of his pitches and is keeping hitters off balance by throwing any pitch in any count. He is firing on all cylinders this year, but he has more adjustments to make and better hitters to figure out. Also, he really hasn't faced adversity yet, and he's been able to intimidate opposing hitters everywhere he has been. As he moves higher, and hitters have longer to study him, the intimidation factor will fade.
Julio Teheran / SP / Atlanta
The velocity that Teheran generates from his lean frame amazes me. Perhaps even more amazing, at this early stage of his development, is his change-up. Teheran may be the real deal, but, judging by the tape, he seems to have a high-leverage delivery. I've seen many flame-throwing teenagers burn out before.
Tyler Matzek / SP / Colorado
Matzek made his minor league debut on May 24, and his velocity was on display as he reportedly hit the mid-90s consistently throughout his 81-pitch performance. Also on display was his shaky command, issuing four walks and leaving the ball up in the zone far too often. It's great to see him pitching at the same level as his fellow 2009 first-round high school hurlers.
Eric Hosmer / 1B / Kansas City
The world is finally getting a glimpse of Hosmer's natural hitting ability and plate presence. His athletic ability has been eye-opening as well, something I didn't account for when he was drafted. Yet his continued lack of home run power is mystifying, as his swing should lend itself naturally to the long ball. Maybe the home runs will come as his body fills out more.
Mike Leake / SP / Cincinnati
Leake has been one of the more impressive rookies in the major leagues over the first two months of the season, which is downright shocking to me. Don't get me wrong, I like him and I like his future, but he hadn't pitched a single minor league inning coming into the season. I thought that would create inconsistency in his performances and ultimately a Triple-A demotion. Leake isn't showing any signs of that scenario.
Chris Carter / 1B / Oakland
A lot of people put a lot of faith in Carter after his true breakout last year in the Texas League, and it may be time to back off a bit on the praise. His strikeout numbers are not improving, and at this point in his development we all have to wonder if he will ever cut down on the K's. He has home run power and draws walks, but he doesn't separate himself in any way from the other top first base prospects in baseball.
Mike Trout / OF / LA Angels
Trout has arguably been the minor league player of the year almost two months into the season. For an 18-year-old, he is proving to be an excellent overall hitter in the Midwest League. His plate discipline is beyond anything I was expecting at this point. His speed is a weapon and he is using it to great effect, once again, much sooner than I was expecting. And he is showing a bit of pop in his bat, although that may be the last skill he fully develops. He is shooting up prospect charts.
Freddie Freeman / 1B / Atlanta
I like that Freeman is treading water against very advanced competition for his age in the International League. But, I've said it before and it still rings true, his future is reliant on his power numbers, and those numbers are coming up short right now.
Mike Minor / SP / Atlanta
Where are all of these strikeouts coming from? The command of his entire repertoire is what's sitting down hitters at a tremendous clip. The strikeout numbers may fade as he advances, but he has established himself as a guy who could enjoy major league success right out of the gate, which should come sometime in 2011.
Posted by Matt Hagen at 6:40am
(2) Comments
Friday, June 04, 2010
Hopefully you were able to get Max Scherzer in time for his gem last week. Scherzer's 14-strikeout start more than makes up for Masterson's second to last outing. Also, go get Carlos Santana. As I mentioned last week and as Brad Johnson points out this week, he's not long for the minors. You will regret not having him.
All stats current through at least June 1, 2010.
Jose Bautista watch (5/25-5/31): .353 BA, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 6 R. His ownership is up 1.1 percentage points in ESPN leagues this week and now sits at 100 percent.
Mike Napoli | Los Angeles (AL) | C, DH (and soon to be 1B eligible in Yahoo (followed by ESPN) standard leagues) | 60.8% ESPN Ownership
YTD: .271/.256/.550
True Talent: .265/.350/.515
In the [pretentious] world of Mike Scioscia's Angels of Anaheim, where luck and defense reign supreme over talent and runs differentials, Mike Napoli is an unwanted child. Or at least he was until Jeff Mathis got injured. Despite a cold start to the season (.167 BA, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R in 50 PA), perhaps because high-K guys don't belong in pinch-hitting roles (cough cough * see Jonny Gomes* cough cough), Napoli has been red hot in May (.322 BA, 8 HR, 17 RBI, 15 R in 96 PA). While there were some concerns about Napoli losing playing time with Mathis returning to the team, Kendry Morales did all Mike Napoli owners a big favor and broke his leg. Now, rather than hitting off the bench with occasional starts for the rest of the season, Napoli is probably going to gain 1B eligibility to go with his C label. Napoli, like Geovany Soto and Ryan Doumit, was a potential bargain this offseason and is so far paying big dividends to those who were patient with him. In shallower leagues with impatient owners, Napoli, who has 28 homers over his past 156 games, may have been cut loose. Overall, Napoli's batting average is sitting around .270, which is about as high as it will get this season. Perhaps he is still sitting on the wire or perhaps you can steal him from a guy who thinks he is "selling high" on a catcher with a low average. His ESPN ownership is under 65 percent, which is way too low for what will likely be a top 10 catcher. Simply put, Napoli is a guy you want to acquire. It is worth noting, for those who are concerned about Napoli's average and strikeout percentage, that a player who is bad in a fantasy rate category like batting average only hurts you in quantity, and it's unlikely that Napoli will exceed 400 at-bats for the rest of the season. However, in Napoli land, that means 20-plus home runs ... plus, Adam Dunn is a perennially top 100 draft pick in fantasy, right? Besides, how many other catchers not named Mauer/Vmart/McCann are going to even hit .285 this season? Yeah, go get him.
Recommendation: Napoli is a must-own player in all fantasy formats.
John Lackey | Los Angeles (AL) | SP | 93.5% ESPN Ownership
YTD: 4.84 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 5.14 K/9
True Talent: 4.30 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 6.50 K/9
After a less-than-outstanding (but still fantasy-useful) season with health issues, Lackey was bumped past the 120 overall draft mark (10th round) in most providers' rankings. Given the Red Sox "super defensive upgrade" this season (signing Scutaro/Cameron), Lackey seemed like a good buy-low guy with some modest upside. How wrong I was, though how much of it has to do with the absence of Cameron/Ellsbury is questionable. Lackey was drafted for his valuable consistency (especially in head-to-head leagues)—low 7's K/9, good control, neutral flyball tendencies—but he's only been consistently bad. Ten starts (61.1 innings pitched) into the season, Lackey's groundball tendencies have stayed constant, but the K's have plummeted (career-low 5.14 per nine) and the walks are plentiful (career-high 4.40 per nine). The ugly ERA (4.84) isn't nearly as ugly as the peripherals seem to suggest they could be (5.03 FIP/5.28xFIP). With 68 hits to boot, Lackey's WHIP currently sits at an ugly 1.60 on the season. Lackey has not been unlucky (.307 BABIP, 73.2% LOB%) and the defense behind him is not to blame—he has been just plain awful this season. Perhaps you might be able to convince some (sabermetrically ignorant) owner that Lackey is just struggling and worth a 60-cent-on-the-dollar buy-low move because when Cameron and Ellsbury come back, he will rebound. I just wouldn't use that logic as a basis to buy. Better options than Lackey, who is pitching worse than the league-average pitcher right now, exist aplenty—even for AL-only formats. He's not worth the cost, risk or roster space.
Recommendation: Sell him in all formats if you can, cut him if you can't. Forty cents on the dollar seems fair.
Jayson Nix | Chicago (AL) | 2B, 3B | 0.0% ESPN Ownership
YTD: .243/.242/.486
True Talent: .225/.296/.383
With the talentless Mark Teahen on the mend with a fractured right finger (he gave plenty of owners a fractured middle finger this season), Nix may finally get a shot to play full time. Even though I've been highly critical in the past of the only baseball player I know who struck out swinging at a pitch that hit him in the face, Jayson Nix is a useful option in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues with middle infield positions. Nix is a guy with good walking skills, decent (if not above-average) power and below average contact skills. Nix will not light the world on fire while Tehean is out, and it looks like Chicago is going to, for the foreseeable future, stick with a Vizquel/Nix platoon at third, which obviously kills most of Teahen's prospective value. However, given Vizquel's advanced age and poor bat, it's not unlikely that Nix runs away with the job. If he does, a decent/useful .260/.335/.440 is in the cards. That, and his penchant for running, might make him a borderline top 15 second baseman the rest of season (again, only if he breaks out of the platoon).
Recommendation: Watch in AL-only/deep mixed-league formats, ignore in the rest.
Javier Vazquez | New York (AL) | SP | 63.7% ESPN Ownership
YTD: 6.06 ERA, 7.90 K/9, 1.49 WHIP
True Talent: 4.00 ERA, 8.30 K/9, 1.30 WHIP (not his upside, but his realistic outlook for the rest of season)
Javier Vazquez is one of baseball's most underrated and underperforming talents of all time. Even last year, when he posted a 2.87 ERA, Javi was the owner of a 2.77 FIP/2.82 xFIP. After playing some extremely unlucky seasons in Chicago and Arizona, Vazquez's career 4.23 ERA is significantly higher than his career 3.86 FIP and 3.67 xFIP. Whereas Vazquez is usually a pinpoint (career 2.38 BB/9), low-90s heater, swinging-strike machine (11.5% career), he's been nothing of his old self as of late. In 49 innings this season, Vazquez's fastball has barely averaged 89 mph on the gun, and he's sporting the worst walk rate (4.22 BB/9) of his carer. His usually electric offspeed stuff is all-around down in effectiveness this year, with his career bread and butter pitches, the curveball and change-up, being "worth" a respective -3.70 and -2.91 runs per 100 times thrown. If you compare Vazquez's release point from this season (4/20/10 start)to around the same time last season (4/24/09 start), you will notice (as you would if you look at more game logs) that Vazquez is executing a more consistent release point, which makes his ineffectiveness all that more baffling. Since (and including) his May 12 start, Vazquez has pitched pretty well: three wins (though one came in one-third of an inning of relief), 2.88 ERA, 23 K (7.13 K/9) and only 8 BB (2.88 BB/9) in 25 innings. He's back in form, right? Maybe, but there are some concerning red flags.
(1) Since May 12, Vazquez's batted ball profile reads 36.8% GB%, 39.7% FB% and 23.5% LD%. An increase in line drives (which have the highest SLG and BABIP rate) is never a good sign, though Vazquez has a career 20.7% LD% rate and posted a successful season last year with a 23.6% LD% (highest of his career). Still, Vazquez's season LD% is 20.8%, meaning he's been hit better as of late.
(2) Despite the successful peripherals, there is the looming specter of lost velocity, which makes me question the sustainability of Vazquez's success at the moment. A glance at Vazquez's velocity charts (courtesy of Fangraphs) shows that he is still struggling with his velocity. In fact, Vazquez's average fastball speed during his last outing was his lowest mark of this season. Given the high correlation between fastball velocity and success, the prospects for Vazquez's rest-of-season production will probably hinge upon control and whether or not he finds some mustard for his relish (sorry for the food metaphor, but I am starving for a hot dog right now). Further, if Vazquez continues to throw all of his pitches in the 80s, his lack of speed differential will likely be the death of him.
If you have the opportunity to shop him and can convince someone to buy, I would pull the trigger. Vazquez is an elite talent, but he's either injured (and hiding it) or there is something about New York that does not agree with him. Vazquez's upside is not so far outmatched by his downside and inherent risk that he's worth holding on to if you can make a "lateral" or slightly sub-lateral move based on his last 25 innings of production. If you can get something akin to Chad Billingsley+ Manny Corpas for him, take it.
Recommendation: Must-own in all AL-only leagues, should be owned in most mixed leagues. All owners (including Steinbrenner) should monitor him closely.
Jason Frasor | Toronto | RP | 19.5% ESPN Ownership
YTD: 5.06 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 1.73 WHIP
True Talent: 3.90 ERA, 8.80 K/9, 1.35 WHIP
After posting an 8.38 ERA April, a month in which he lost the closing job to Kevin Gregg (0.82 ERA in April), Jason Frasor pitched quite well in May (0.82 ERA). Meanwhile, in May, Kevin Gregg pitched like ... well, Kevin Gregg (5.11 ERA). While Gregg managed to get a death grip over the job in April, Cito Gaston's confidence in him may have waned recently, and Gregg's four-run, two-thirds-of-an-inning fiasco the other night did not do too much to solidify his position in the bullpen. Granted, Frasor hasn't started the month off strong either (two appearances, 0.2 IP, 2 ER) and Scott Downs (3.24 1.12 WHIP on the season) is looming around, but two things make me lean toward Frasor as the next guy in line. First, Downs is a lefty, and most managers do not like southpaws closing out their games ( Billy Wagner excepted). Second, Downs came out earlier this year and said that he does not want to close and feels most comfortable in the setup position (can't find a link at the moment, but I swear it happened). While Downs may have been trying to be diplomatic, it's unlikely that Gaston will force Downs into a role he does not particularly want to play unless his hand is forced (i.e., Frasor and Gregg keep pitching like Kevin Gregg). Before you point out Gregg's xFIP in Chicago last year, I am well aware of the splits. My response is twofold: (1) Gregg's struggles gave me an irrational hatred of him, and (2) xFIP is not the best measure of a reliever's true ability given the limited sample size, variable leverage index and matchup-based usage of relievers. In short, if you're speculating for saves and have an open spot, Frasor is likely to be the most likely soon-to-be closer option on waivers (just don't start him in an active spot unless he's actually closing).
Recommendation: Must-own in all AL-only leagues, should be owned in most mixed leagues.
Corey Patterson | Baltimore | OF | 1.2% ESPN Ownership
YTD: .247/.326/.403
True Talent: .250/.300/.410
At the blasphemous behest of a fellow blogmate and Cubs fan, I begrudgingly look at Patterson. Let me start by saying that it doesn't take a Cubs fan to dislike Patterson. Thanks to his free-swinging ( Shawon Dunston-like) ways, Patterson's career walk rate is putrid (4.6 percent, almost half the 9.0 percent MLB average) and to make matters worse, he does not compensate with solid contact rates (75 percent career contact rate, 81 percent MLB average this season). Patterson surely has a some pop (.153 ISO) and some speed (7.0 career speed score, 5.5 this season), but he was never able to put it all together and deliver as a five-category fantasy (or even an MLB average) player. Although Elder Patterson is only 30 years old right now, there is not much upside to hope for, and you can't teach an old dog new tricks. Outside of the league-average walk rate through 87 plate appearances this season (9.2%), the rest of Patterson's numbers look oddly like his career production. If you need steals, Patterson will provide whenever he gets on base (he's already swiped five this year, a rate of one steal per ~5.5 times on base), but the question is, how much will he get on base (.291 career OBP) and how much will he hurt your batting average (career .251 hitter)? Patterson is essentially a one-category player and not worth anything more than a spot start. Patterson will never be anything more for fantasy players at this point in his career, and he'll be worth even less for Baltimore in real life. In the words of a storm trooper I once knew, "move along."
Recommendation: Spot start for steal-desperate teams in AL-only and very deep (14-team, five-outfielder) mixed leagues only. Otherwise, avoid like the plague.
Carl Pavano | Minnesota | OF | 36.4% ESPN Ownership
YTD: 3.99 ERA, 5.79 K/9, 1.16 WHIP
True Talent: 3.80 ERA, 6.00 K/9, 1.25 WHIP
After dating super-tweeter Alyssa Milano and pitching less than 150 [ineffective] innings for the Yankees between 2005 and 2008 (100 of those coming in 2005...), Carl Pavano seemed washed up, though he has never really achieved enough to even be called washed up. Prior to this season and 2004 aside, Pavano has never pitched 100+ innings of sub-4.20 ERA baseball. Despite pinpoint control (career 2.33 BB/9, very fitting for the Twinkies), Pavano has never had much success in the majors because his strikeout rates are low (career 5.88 K/9) even for the AL, and because his groundball rate is merely average (~45% for his career). Last season, however, Pavano seemed to have secretly turned things around. Though his ERA wasn't very pretty at 5.10, his xFIP sat at an even 4.00 thanks to improved strikeouts (6.88 K/9) and decreased walks (1.76 BB/9). Though he's still not striking anyone out this season (5.79 K/9), Pavano is sporting his highest GB% since 2005 and has shaved the walks even further (a 2009-Pineiro-like 1.24 BB/9). So far this season, the results have been nice: 3.99 ERA, 3.76 FIP/3.72 xFIP. Though we haven't seen how Target Field plays in the heat, so far it's played like a pitcher's park, and the Twins have been top five in defensive value (+12 fielding runs above replacement). Going forward, I like the chances of Pavano maintaining his current success with room for improvement. If you have plenty of K's and are in need of some WHIP/ERA help (with the solid promise of wins (or at least opportunities thereof)), then Pavano is your man.
Recommendation: Must-own in AL-only and 12-team mixed leagues with higher innings pitched limits (1,400+).
Joel Pineiro | Los Angeles (AL) | OF | 25.8% ESPN Ownership
YTD: 5.16 ERA, 5.56 K/9, 1.40 WHIP 4.00 ERA, 4.70 K/9, 1.30 WHIP
True Talent: 3.80 ERA, 6.00 K/9, 1.25 WHIP
Dave Duncan can do magical things with pitchers. For one, he can turn a guy who's not had a sub-4.00 ERA (or sub-4.20 FIP) since 2004 and turn him into a 3.49 ERA/3.68 xFIP pitcher. Since working with Duncan on his breaking stuff and fastball last season, Pineiro has found new life as a super groundball pitcher. Last season, Pineiro posted a GB% over 60 percent, and this season he is still burning worms over 55 percent of the time. Right now, Pineiro has an ERA over 5 on the season (largely due to two shell-shocked outings), but the xFIP is still a solid 3.95 thanks to an uptick in strikeouts this season (5.56 K/9 this year compared with 4.42 last season). I view Pineiro as a cheap version of Carl Pavano—low K's, decent ERA/WHIP upside, all without the promise of wins given the anemic Angels offense. Pineiro won't help any fantasy team win a championship this season, but he very well might solidify an already solid lineup. That's at least worth a free agent claim where you have a roster spot open in my book.
Recommendation: Should be owned in AL-only and probably also deeper (12 or more teams) mixed leagues with higher innings pitched limits (1,500+)
Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 6:50am
(7) Comments
Edwin Jackson | Arizona | SP
YTD: 7.65 K/9, 2.36 K/BB, 5.33 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
True Talent: 6.5 K/9, 1.83 K/BB, 4.85 ERA, 1.46 WHIP
Coming into the 2010 season, Edwin Jackson was a starting pitcher that I both avoided myself and went out of my way to advocate others (non-league mates of course) avoiding as well. My reasons for being down on Jackson were pretty simple: the move to a hitter-friendly ballpark, the mediocre strikeout rate and the high flyball rate. While a cursory glance at his stats would seem to illustrate that I was right in saying to avoid Jackson, I will concede that I was incorrect anyway, as Jackson has been quite unlucky this season. For starters, Jackson is among the leaders in Major League Baseball in ERA and xFIP disparity, as his ERA currently stands at 5.33 and his xFIP is considerably lower at 3.95. The reason for the disparity lies largely in a 66 percent strand rate and a higher-than-league-average HR/FB rate of 13 percent. I would expect Jackson's strand rate to improve and normalize as the season progresses, and I would expect his HR/FB rate to improve slightly as well, though perhaps not as dramatically as his strand rate given his homer-friendly home ballpark.
Jackson has made strides as a pitcher this season that include improving his K/9 to 7.65 (expected given his move to the NL). His K/9 appears to be up due not only because he changed leagues but also because his contact rate against is at a career-best 75.1 percent and his swing rate at pitches outside the strike zone (O-swing) is at a career-best 29.1 percent. With a little more luck going forward, Jackson would appear to be a high-3's to low-4's ERA pitcher who can contribute in strikeouts, and given his ability to eat innings he should get a healthy number of decisions, which increases his odds of contributing in wins. Because Jackson hasn't been terribly unlucky in BABIP and his walk rate is good but not elite, his current 1.35 WHIP seems about right, so I wouldn't drastically alter that projection going forward.
Recommendation: Should be owned in most 12-team mixed leagues, all 14-team or larger mixed leagues and all NL-only leagues.
Jason Hammel | Colorado | SP
YTD: 7.92 K/9, 3.55 K/BB, 6.09 ERA, 1.47 WHIP
True Talent: 6.6 K/9, 2.37 K/BB, 4.94 ERA, 1.48 WHIP
Jason Hammel shares more in common with Edwin Jackson than the division he pitches in. Like Jackson, Hammel has seen his surface stats abused as a result of poor luck. Coming into the season, Hammel was a sleeper that was gaining some steam in certain fantasy circles, and I was someone keeping a close eye on his early-season results. Thus far Hammel has done a good job in terms of things he can control such as K/9 (7.92), BB/9 (2.23) and inducing ground balls (44.9 percent). Unfortunately for Hammel, he's been crippled by a .363 BABIP, a 60.7 percent strand rate and a slightly unlucky 11.9 percent HR/FB.
On the season, Hammel's current xFIP is 3.60, a far cry from his massive 6.09 ERA. If Hammel is able to maintain his current rate stats, I'd expect him to post a high-3's to low-4's ERA going forward, which makes him ownable in deeper leagues. Even in shallower leagues he may prove to be a useful stream/spot start option depending on the matchup. As a further caution, I will mention that much was made of Hammel's home/road splits last season, but taking a look at his xFIP, he was actually better at home using that statistical measure, in spite of the awful home ERA.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all 14-team or larger mixed leagues, and all NL-only leagues.
Jason Motte | St. Louis | RP
YTD: 10.02 K/9, 4.60 K/BB, 2.61 ERA, 0.97 WHIP
True Talent: 9.3 K/9, 2.71 K/BB, 4.15 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Unlike most relievers I've previously suggested in NL Waiver Wire columns, it doesn't appear that save opportunities are imminent for Jason Motte. Regardless of save opportunities, Motte is a reliever of interest in deeper leagues, even those not using holds. 2010 has seen him make serious strides as a pitcher. His K/9 currently stands at an awesome 10.02, and he's hardly walking anyone (2.18 BB/9). Finally, in terms of improvements anyway, Motte has pulled off the triple crown of controllable stats improvements by inducing more ground balls this season, as he's currently coaxing 42.3 percent grounders, up a full 4 percentage points from last year's mark.
Recommendation: Should be owned in some 14-team or larger mixed leagues and all NL-only leagues.
Chris Capuano | Milwaukee | SP
YTD: Hasn't pitched in the majors this season
True Talent: Not projected to throw any innings by Oliver
Chris Capuano has not thrown a pitch in Major League Baseball since 2007. In the meantime he's undergone multiple Tommy John surgeries and become a forgotten man by many. The Brewers inked Capuano to a minor league deal and called him up one day before not doing so would have allowed him to opt out of his minor league deal. Capuano has pitched tremendously in the minors thus far this season and has earned his promotion. He will be given an opportunity to stick in a Brewers rotation that sorely needs some assistance.
Even before injury, Capuano was only a decent pitcher, and certainly not a top-shelf starter, so temper expectations after multiple surgeries and a few years off. That said, those in deeper leagues may want to keep an eye on him, as at his best he is a pitcher who may be able to post a low-4's ERA and contribute roughly 7.0 K/9 and keep the free passes to a minimum if all things are clicking. Definitely not the type of pitcher to trot out immediately, but he was once a useful pitcher, so perhaps a resurgence is in order.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 14-team or larger mixed leagues and watched in NL-only leagues.
Aubrey Huff | San Francisco | 1B/OF
YTD: .298/.382/.472
True Talent: .267/.328/.430
A middle-of-the-order bat available in 84 percent of Yahoo leagues—can that be right? Yes it can, if you are talking about Aubrey Huff. Huff has spent much of the 2010 season slotted fourth in the Giants order and has done an admirable job while many others in the lineup have been rather putrid. While I won't suggest that Huff will turn back the clock to his 2008 season, he does look capable of posting a season that falls between his 2007 and his 2008 production, making him quite useful in deeper leagues. Add in the benefit of gaining OF eligibility and Huff is a player of interest.
On the season, Huff has turned many of his 2009 groundball woes around, and his batted balls in 2010 read: 17.9 percent line drives, 42.9 percent ground balls and 39.1 percent fly balls. His current HR/FB is at a reasonable 9.8 percent, meaning his home run rate is about right. Also working in Huff's favor is a reasonable and sustainable .311 BABIP and a .174 ISO. What you see early with Huff appears to be what you'll get. A final line of 20 homers with 80 RBIs and a .290 average seems about right.
Recommendation: Should be owned in most 12-team mixed leagues, all 14-team or larger mixed leagues and all NL-only leagues.
Ramon Hernandez | Cincinnati | C
YTD: .300/.398/.418
True Talent: .252/.322/.380
Due to the hot start of Ryan Hanigan it appeared that Ramon Hernandez may be spending the season in a 50/50 time share behind the plate for the Reds. Fortunately for Hernandez (and unfortunately for Hanigan), that won't be the case, at least in the immediate future, with Hanigan having broken the thumb on his receiving hand. In Hernandez's defense, he hadn't done poorly and lost playing time to Hanigan, but he lost playing time due to Hanigan's superior defense and scorching start with the stick.
Thus far Hernandez is hitting .300, a number sure to come down when his BABIP regresses from an unsustainable .341. That said, there is still much to like about Hernandez, as he's hitting the ball with authority according to his 20.7 percent line-drive rate. It is a bit troubling to see him posting a 55.4 percent groundball rate, but I'd guess that number will come down and you'll see an uptick in flyball rate going forward, which will bode well for his home run totals playing half his games in the cozy confines of Great American Ballpark. With some luck, and good play, Hernandez may be able to carve out a larger portion of the time share going forward, even when Hanigan returns from his broken thumb. Those in deeper two-catcher leagues need to pounce on him if by chance he's available.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all 10-team or larger two catcher mixed leagues, and all NL-only leagues.
Buster Posey | San Francisco | C/1B
YTD: .474/.474/.579 (19 plate appearances)
True Talent: .294/.375/.438
Much has been made of the Giants' promotion of Buster Posey, and for good reason. I am certainly not the first to suggest that Posey needs to be owned in fantasy leagues, but I may be the boldest in saying that he should be owned in all fantasy leagues. The biggest question regarding Posey, this season anyway, was playing time. Those concerns have been alleviated, as the Giants have shifted Aubrey Huff to left field to find playing time for Posey on days he's not donning the tools of ignorance. That bodes quite well for those in fantasy leagues, as any time a catcher gets regular playing time at another position, thus reducing wear and tear, there is reason to rejoice and celebrate.
Posey has made a mockery of the minors slugging his way to the parent club, and while struggles are sure to lie ahead at times, his strong minor league walk and strikeout numbers should help him right the ship in those instances. Home runs may not be a plentiful for Posey in the short term (or perhaps ever given his line-drive stroke), but doubles pop should be. Given the dearth of talent in the Giants' lineup, the opportunity to move up and hit perhaps in the second or fifth spot in appear likely. Posey is the perfect backup catcher in shallow single-catcher leagues, as he has the added benefit of being able to be slotted in not only at catcher during a regular day off for your starting catcher, but also at first base or corner infield when your regulars at those positions have days off.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all 10-team or larger leagues, including one-catcher leagues; should be owned in all NL-only leagues.
Angel Pagan | New York (NL) | OF
YTD: .293/.353/.431
True Talent: .276/.330/.415
Readers of last week's column's comment section already realize I like Angel Pagan. News that Carlos Beltran still isn't at full strength and is almost certainly over a month away from returning paints a sunny picture for Pagan's playing time. However, even when Beltran returns, I believe Pagan will retain a starting outfield job, so perhaps Beltran's health can be considered non-news for Pagan owners and future owners.
So far Pagan has offered modest power numbers (four home runs), and that shouldn't change, but he has been an asset in stolen bases (nine) and average (.293) as well as runs scored (30). Pagan's current .331 BABIP might suggest that his .293 average is a bit luck-driven, but his career BABIP of .323 and his current 24.8 percent line-drive rate lead me to believe otherwise. A final line that includes 80-90 runs scored, 20 stolen bases and a .290 average may be about right for Pagan, which would serve well as a fifth outfielder in deeper leagues for those in need of a bit of stolen base help while not sacrificing runs and average.
Recommendation: Should be owned in some 12-team five-outfielder mixed leagues, all 14-team or larger five-outfielder mixed leagues and all NL-only leagues.
Posted by Josh Shepardson at 6:40am
(7) Comments
Monday, June 07, 2010
As we all know by now, no decent pitcher is only going to be strong in one rotisserie category—well, at least no projection system is going to predict it that way very often.
The reality is that most of the guys on this list should perform strong in at least a couple categories, but stay with me. What I'll be trying to do is find players whom Oliver projects will specifically perform well in one of the five standard 5x5 pitching categories.
Saves
Leo Nunez: The Marlins' closer may not be very high on your list in terms of bankable closers despite his hot start (2.28 ERA and 9.51 K/9 despite career marks of 4.44 and 6.70, respectively). Oliver doesn't necessarily believe he'll keep up his current rate (projected finish of 3.96 ERA and 7.44 K/9), but it does see him notching 26 saves the rest of the way, which is tied for the best in baseball.
Matt Capps: One of the players Oliver projects to share the saves lead is the Nationals' current closer. Capps isn't quite performing above his career norms to the degree that Nunez is, but Oliver does see some regression in both his ERA (3.94 the rest of the season) and K/9 (7.19). It also sees him collecting 26 saves for a much-improved Nationals team.
Matt Lindstrom: The Astros' closer definitely has the look of a player who can sustain his current pace. His career ERA of 3.81 and K/9 of 7.58 are pretty on point with his current marks of 3.33 and 7.77, respectively. That said, Oliver actually sees a regression in ERA (4.39), but still sees him successfully closing out 24 games (ninth best). If you can take the ERA hit, he's probably one of the cheaper closers out there.
Wins
Colby Lewis: After a pretty impressive start, the Rangers starter has started to come back to earth a bit. Oliver remains bullish. Lewis is projected to win nine more games this year, while posting an ERA of 3.13 and striking out 8.19 batters per nine innings. The nine wins is the 11th-best total Oliver projects.
Shaun Marcum: The Blue Jays starter has been one of the season's pleasant surprises during his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. I'm a little skeptical that he can register the 134 innings we're currently projecting. If he does, though, Oliver projects nine wins to go along with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He's not going to strike a bunch of guys out, but Oliver says he'll improve upon his current rate of 6.86 (to 7.17).
Mark Buehrle: Never a sexy option, the White Sox hurler is quietly having a decent season despite a 3-6 record. Oliver projects the record to improve, joining the logjam with a projected nine wins, even if it sees him regressing in ERA (4.04 the rest of the way after a 3.63 so far this year).
ERA
Stephen Strasburg: I realize the Nationals starter's debut will likely have his price at an all-time high, but it does bear reminding that Oliver absolutely loves this guy. If there's a way to get your hands on him before he debuts, I highly recommend it. Even if he only gets the 55 innings we're currently projecting, those will be some spectacular frames. Oliver projects a 2.71 ERA. Oliver is also projecting a K/9 of 10.13, which is the third-highest rate it projects for any pitcher.
Luke Gregerson: I've talked about the Padres middle reliever on several occasions, but even if the Padres hold onto Heath Bell and Gregerson never gets to close, he'll still have some value in the rate stats. His projected rest of season ERA of 3.03 is the eighth-lowest. If your league is counting holds, he's just that much more valuable.
Mat Latos: I have to admit that my suggestions on the young Padres pitcher have been all over the place. I recommended drafting him, suggested selling high and now I'm telling you that he's a great guy to have if you need to lower your team ERA. The only thing that really keeps his value relatively low is his projected 89 innings. I don't quite know what to make of that, but his projected ERA of 3.14 is the fifth-lowest of any starter.
WHIP
Ted Lilly: The Cubs starter has been a little unlucky on the W-L front (1-5), but you could argue that he's probably gotten a little lucky on ERA (3.69 despite a xFIP of 4.86). Well, Oliver projects improvement almost across the board, including WHIP. In fact, his projected 1.11 WHIP is the 10th-lowest and fifth-lowest among pitchers projected to pitch at least 80 innings the rest of the season.
Sergio Romo: Like with ERA, there's a good argument to be made for stocking your team with solid middle relievers in an effort to win the rate categories. The Giants middle reliever probably isn't going to close, but his 1.14 WHIP will certainly help. Romo comes with the added bonus of not hurting you much in ERA (3.31) and even pitching in a little on strikeouts (8.45 K/9).
Matt Thornton: I probably could have put the White Sox setup man in the ERA category, too, but he works well here. Many think there's a decent chance that he'll end up closing before the season is out. Even if that's not the case, his 1.14 WHIP (tied for 15th-lowest in Oliver projections) will come in handy.
Strikeouts
Jonathan Sanchez: There have been glimpses of the Giants lefty's potential genius for several years. Now, we're getting a full view. His 2.63 ERA and 8.96 K/9 are spectacular. Realistically, he's probably not available in your league. Still, I'm putting him on here because there aren't a lot of great undiscovered resources for a sexy stat like Ks and his projected total of 143 is the fifth-highest. His projected 3.97 ERA and 1.35 WHIP aren't great, but not so bad to make you worried about acquiring him.
Max Scherzer: In his first game back from the minors, the Tigers starter struck out 14 in 5.2 innings. If that doesn't prove that he's at least capable of helping you as a one-category dynamo, I'm not sure what will. Oliver projects a 3.82 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, which won't hurt, but you'll want him for those 125 strikeouts that are the 16th-highest projected total.
Brett Myers: The Astros starter is still owned in just 12 percent of ESPN leagues despite a 3.04 ERA and solid strikeout numbers (59 in 74 innings). I'm sure his 1.39 WHIP has something to do with that, but if strikeouts are what you're after he's probably as good as you'll find on the waiver wire. He's projected to strike out 123 the rest of the season, which is the 20th-highest total. Do be aware that his ERA is projected to rise significantly (4.58) and his WHIP isn't going to get any better (1.38)
|
