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May 19, 2013
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 Wednesday, September 01, 2010Endgame aggressionDepending on how liberally one may choose to define the term, it can be said that we are either approaching or have already entered the “endgame” stage of the fantasy baseball season. This changes the value proposition of short term versus long term strategies, most notably for those chasing points. For those in daily transaction leagues trying to close points and category gaps, it’s time to get aggressive with your roster management. There are two ways to overcome statistical deficits, generally speaking—quality and quantity. Our players have to either play better than others’ players, or we have to increase the amount of opportunities our teams have to produce so that even if we succeed at the same rate, such success translates into greater overall production. For most of the season, we concentrate on maximizing quality. We may spot start here and there, strategically, but we are generally trying to assemble the highest quality roster we can. We look at our benches primarily as insurance against injury that outclasses the options on the waiver wire and as a stockpile of talent for purposes of trade, and not as starter fill-ins on travel days. This is prudent during the first three quarters of the season, as it would be unwise to dump a player who is 15 percent better than replacement just to get a day’s worth of PAs from a player who is scheduled to play when yours is off. As you reach the final lap, however, your strategy should shift, especially if you’re in shallow leagues. Your goal should be to maximize the number of chances your team has to earn stats. What I normally do is turn all my non-starter or closer pitcher slots and my bench bat slots to rotational. Depending on the disparity of quality between your weakest starting pitchers and bats and what’s available on the wire, you may choose to put those names on the block as well. On Mondays and Thursdays, all those roster spots are held by hitters so I can field as full a line-up as possible on the travel days. It’s also worth considering holding an extra bat or two on Sundays if you’re dedicated enough to check line-ups before game time, as it seems players are most commonly rested on Sundays (probably because Sundays are most common for day games that follow night games). Of course, this works best when players have multi-position eligibility, as it’s hard to know for sure which players will be given any given Sunday off. Throughout the rest of the week, I fill those roster spots with middle relievers. Middle relievers can be golden when implementing endgame strategies. Many accrue decisions at a much higher rate per-inning pitched than starters and the good ones are a great source of low ERA and WHIP, as well as above average strikeouts per inning pitched. The idea here is to maximize the number of pitchers on your daily roster who enter a game and therefore get a chance to vulture a win. There’s certainly skill to be leveraged when picking opportunities—when you look at how the Mariners are constructed, it’s not exactly surprising that Brandon League has accrued 14 decisions and four saves—but above all, you are playing a numbers game. The beautiful thing about this strategy is that it unlikely to hurt your rate stats. In fact, you are more likely to improve them than harm them as long as there are plenty of quality middle relievers on the wire. Depending on the relative strength of your rate stats, counting stats and your innings pace, you may also choose to spot start more aggressively. In one of my leagues, one of the contending managers is somehow doing so while taking 1s in both ERA and WHIP, so he’s spot starting as much as the innings cap will allow him to, trying to rocket to the top of Ks and Ws because he feels he has nothing to lose. In that same league, another contending manager has massive leads in ERA, and a very strong WHIP, largely because of a considerable core of elite closers, but is lagging in Ws and Ks. Luckily for the rest of us, he isn’t particularly savvy when it comes to more advanced strategy because he too should be spot starting aggressively, but he’s not doing so. (His is the only team with significant and sustainable low hanging fruit to gain from a mere strategic shift; the other owner spot starting aggressively can only do so much because he doesn’t have enough innings banked to make the strategy sustainable for long.) In short and sweet summary, at this point in the season it's worth releasing a bit of value over replacement for added opportunities to produce. By managing aggressively and intently over the last month or so of the season, you could amass a few dozen more at bats than your competitors and added opportunities for pitcher wins. It just takes a bit more discipline on your part to commit the time to dropping and adding regularly. Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 4:53am (1) Comments Thursday, September 02, 2010Average and prime year projections, part 2Jaime Garcia / SP / St. Louis Average Year Projection: 199 IP / 3.53 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / 14 W / 10 L / 154 SO / 191 H / 70 BB Prime Year Projection: 214 IP / 3.15 ERA / 1.21 WHIP / 15 W / 9 L / 177 SO / 196 H / 63 BB Christian Friedrich / SP / Colorado Average Year Projection: 203 IP / 3.78 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 13 W / 10 L / 168 SO / 194 H / 68 BB Prime Year Projection: 212 IP / 3.30 ERA / 1.21 WHIP / 15 W / 10 L / 183 SO / 194 H / 62 BB Justin Smoak / 1B / Seattle Average Year Projection: .301 / .391 / 24 HR / 35 2B / 1 3B / 94 RBI / 84 R / 80 BB / 118 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS Prime Year Projection: .316 / .412 / 29 HR / 36 2B / 1 3B / 105 RBI / 96 R / 88 BB / 109 SO / 3 SB / 1 CS Jhoulys Chacin / SP/RP / Colorado Average Year Projection: 198 IP / 3.84 ERA / 1.32 WHIP / 13 W / 10 L / 175 SO / 190 H / 72 BB Prime Year Projection: 209 IP / 3.42 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 15 W / 10 L / 194 SO / 192 H / 65 BB Domonic Brown / OF / Philadelphia Average Year Projection: .274 / .332 / 17 HR / 38 2B / 4 3B / 87 RBI / 85 R / 47 BB / 123 SO / 16 SB / 6 CS Prime Year Projection: .288 / .352 / 22 HR / 38 2B / 4 3B / 97 RBI / 97 R / 53 BB / 115 SO / 18 SB / 5 CS Kyle Gibson / SP / Minnesota Average Year Projection: 196 IP / 3.94 ERA / 1.33 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 167 SO / 193 H / 68 BB Prime Year Projection: 209 IP / 3.52 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 15 W / 11 L / 186 SO / 196 H / 62 BB Wade Davis / SP / Tampa Bay Average Year Projection: 196 IP / 3.90 ERA / 1.36 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 160 SO / 193 H / 73 BB Prime Year Projection: 207 IP / 3.51 ERA / 1.28 WHIP / 15 W / 10 L / 176 SO / 196 H / 69 BB Jordan Lyles / SP / Houston Average Year Projection: 202 IP / 4.04 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 13 W / 12 L / 173 SO / 197 H / 65 BB Prime Year Projection: 210 IP / 3.60 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 188 SO / 198 H / 60 BB Mike Minor / SP / Atlanta Average Year Projection: 201 IP / 4.11 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 179 SO / 199 H / 64 BB Prime Year Projection: 210 IP / 3.63 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 14 W / 10 L / 192 SO / 201 H / 60 BB Logan Morrison / OF/1B / Florida Average Year Projection: .307 / .391 / 21 HR / 40 2B / 2 3B / 90 RBI / 83 R / 87 BB / 108 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS Prime Year Projection: .320 / .412 / 27 HR / 41 2B / 3 3B / 101 RBI / 95 R / 93 BB / 99 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS Jenrry Mejia / SP/RP / NY Mets Average Year Projection: 195 IP / 4.21 ERA / 1.35 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 170 SO / 193 H / 71 BB Prime Year Projection: 207 IP / 3.76 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 185 SO / 197 H / 65 BB Aroldis Chapman / SP / Cincinnati Average Year Projection: 199 IP / 4.24 ERA / 1.37 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 186 SO / 195 H / 77 BB Prime Year Projection: 209 IP / 3.77 ERA / 1.28 WHIP / 14 W / 12 L / 200 SO / 197 H / 70 BB Casey Kelly / SP / Boston Average Year Projection: 198 IP / 4.25 ERA / 1.34 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 176 SO / 196 H / 70 BB Prime Year Projection: 209 IP / 3.79 ERA / 1.26 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 188 SO / 199 H / 65 BB Mike Leake / SP / Cincinnati Average Year Projection: 207 IP / 4.20 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 154 SO / 204 H / 64 BB Prime Year Projection: 216 IP / 3.78 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 14 W / 12 L / 166 SO / 206 H / 59 BB Alex White / SP / Cleveland Average Year Projection: 206 IP / 4.18 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 148 SO / 204 H / 66 BB Prime Year Projection: 217 IP / 3.74 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 14 W / 12 L / 162 SO / 206 H / 60 BB Posted by Matt Hagen at 1:18am (10) Comments Friday, September 03, 2010Waiver Wire: AL, Week 22Thank you to everyone for the well wishes this and last week. A special thank you to both Derek Carty, for completing my incomplete Week 21 article, and Taylor Twarowski, for accompanying me to the hospital and making sure I survived to write about baseball another day. September in fantasy is like finals week in law school. Everyone is cramming down the stretch, seeking that elusive advantage in a tight race to the top. If you can't hack it in the final weeks, six months of work goes down the drain. My rest of season mission is to give you that edge. I will try to focus more on functional suggestions rather than player ability. With about 30 games remaining, I will put less emphasis on long term regression and highlight trends and riding the lightning. All stats through at least Aug. 29. Manny Ramirez | Chicago (AL) | OF | 80 percent Yahoo ownership TYD: .311/.405/.510 Oliver ROS: .290/.392/.503 Attention AL-only fantasy owners who have been (foolishly) sitting on their FAAB money all season: Manny Ramirez is coming to Chicago and will be, without question, the final FAAB-buster of the season. All passengers must depart the train. If you have the cash and miss out here, you might as well concede your chances at the fantasy baseball title (if you have not already). He did not play Monday or Tuesday, so he should should not clear waivers in Yahoo leagues using default waiver settings until Saturday morning. The move from Mannywood to the Windy City should benefit Ramirez's rest of season production. Oliver pegs him as capable of a .290/.392/.503 line down the stretch, while ZiPS sees a more optimistic .303./405/.545 line of production. I am not sure if either system is considering the change of venue in those projections, but whereas Manny was capable of a .311/.405/.510 (149 wRC+, a "down year" by his lofty standards) in a park with 1.25 percent HR/FB inflation index, he should be capable of bigger and better things over at The Cell, where flyball pitchers go to die (21.29 percent HR/FB inflation index). Dodger Stadium has a three-year park factor of 95 for batters, meaning that L.A. is suppressing offensive production for hitters by about 5 percent (B-R uses a half-step index to account for the fact that over the course of a full season, only about half a hitter's games are at his home park). On the other hand, U.S. Cellular Field has a a three-year park factor of 104 for batters. Given his ISO of .200 on the season (.276 career), +.310 AVG (.313 career), and +.400 OBP (.411 career), it goes without saying that you will want Manny's production for your fantasy team if you have the requisite waivers priority or residual FAAB budget. Few outfielders can rival his stats, even in a down year at age 38. Recommendation: Place an immediate waiver claim or 100 percent FAAB bid on Ramirez in AL-only formats. Ryan Raburn | Detroit | 1B,2B,OF | 41 percent Yahoo ownership YTD: .249/.314.438 Oliver ROS: .326/.326/.453 What do you get when you infuse a part-time player with Matt Kemp power into the core of a lineup featuring Miguel Cabrera? That is what the Tigers have been trying to answer with the Ryan Raburn experiment, necessitated by the end of Carlos Guillen's 2010 season, and so far the results have been quite positive. In fact, Raburn is making a strong push for a 2010 AL Wiggy Award based on his second half performance. Since getting a full time job on July 25, Raburn has hit .299/.386/.559 with eight homers, 21 runs and 26 RBI over 34 games. Those numbers make him the 13th most valuable player in fantasy over the past 30 days and he's shown no sign of slowing down. Over the past 14 days, Raburn's hit .333/.378/.643. Some might be concerned about the .349 BABIP in the second half, but Raburn has a career BABIP of .318 (963 PA) and an xBABIP of around .300 on the season. Even if you slash about 50 points off the batting average, Raburn's numbers are still useful given his solid runs/RBI output (which should be sustainable batting around Cabrera). Raburn has been batting in front of Cabrera lately, so perhaps he will keep seeing pitches he can launch—or at least keep scoring runs—though lineup protection has more or less been proven to be a myth by now. Raburn's hot bat should be seriously considered for position flexibility, middle infield help (Dustin Pedroia owners, I'm looking at you), power needs, R/RBI boost. It would be silly to rely on Raburn (career .264 hitter) to contribute in the batting average department, but he is a rare available late- season three-category producer with super position eligibility. Recommendation: Raburn is a must-own commodity in AL-only formats and a solid bench player in mixed leagues with 12-plus teams or MI requirements. Hideki Matsui | Los Angeles (AL) | OF | 38 percent Yahoo ownership YTD: .260/.346/.436 Oliver ROS: .259/.345/.420 Matsui started the season red hot, batting .291 with four homer, seven runs and 12 RBI over his first 20 games. The-hitter-formerly-known-as-Godzilla cooled off quickly, however, batting .177 over his next 28 games. By the end of May, Angels fans were lamenting the loss of Vladimir Guerrero and Matsui's early hot streak (and fantasy potential) was quickly ignored and forgotten by fantasy owners. However, since the calendar flipped to June, Matsui has hit .283/.380/.470 with 10 HR, 31 runs and 44 RBI over 236 AB. Over this same time frame, Vlad has hit .276 with 13 HR, 45 runs and 55 RBI over 294 AB. If you pro-rate the numbers, the production quality is about even. Yet, Matsui is owned in less than half as many leagues as Vlad. That does not compute. Though Matsui's power is down from his career average (well, not so much since June) and from last year, his overall season line of .260/.346/.436 has been nonetheless productive. Batting in the center of any lineup, even a Kendry Morales-less Angels, provides a hitter with plenty of R/RBI opportunities and Matsui has capitalized on them (+0.45 clutch rating). Don't let the full season numbers or ownership rates fool you, Matsui's been a very productive fantasy player. Over his past 30 games, Matsui has produced a .310 average, four homers, 15 runs and 18 RBI. Matsui will contribute plenty in runs/RBI with solid HR totals and a good enough average (career .288 mark) to do more good than bad, despite lingering health concerns and a lack of stolen base ability. If Matsui's available in your league and you have bench space, snatch him up. Recommendation: Matsui is a must-own commodity in AL-only formats and leagues that employ more than three outfielders. Matsui is also a solid outfield/utility option in 12-plus team mixed leagues. Jayson Nix | Cleveland | 2B, SS, 3B | 4 Percent Yahoo Ownership YTD: .243/.300/.439 ZiPS ROS: .250/.318/.400 If you google "David MVP Eckstein" and "Jayson Nix" you will find plenty of places throughout the Internet where I've defended the honor of Jayson Nix. On White Sox radio, I have an infamous (and ongoing) rivalry with Chris Rongey over Nix and the important of statistics. On THT, I have written about/praised Nix in two AL Waiver Wire columns. Yet people continue to ignore just how good he is. Since being shipped to Cleveland and given a full time job, Nix has hit .263/.309/.489. While his on-base percentage is not very pretty (4.9 percent walk rate in Cleveland, 8.4 percent for his career), his power (.226 ISO) has been something to write home about— especially if you consider "home" Chicago, where Pale Hose third basemen have combined for a .102 ISO. Nix's .346 wOBA in Cleveland has been quite productive for the bottom feeding Indians, and equally productive for fantasy owners. In 206 PA for the mostly Carlos Santana-less Indians, Nix has produced 11 homers with 21 runs and 23 RBI. He's even swiped a few bags. In a standard 650 PA season, his numbers for Cleveland pro-rate into a .263/.309/.489 triple-slash line with 35 HR, 67 runs and 73 RBI. Not too shabby for someone with 2B/SS/3B eligibility. Deep keeper leagues and early preparers for future drafts should also take note of Nix's numbers considering that 1) his flexible eligibility should extend into the 2011 season and 2) Santana's presence in the Indians' lineup should only bolster Nix's numbers in 2011 (assuming, of course, that he continues to get premium lineup placement). There's nothing particularly sexy about Nix—his batting average is about average, as have been his R/RBI totals on the season. However, the premium power and three premium position eligibility makes Nix a palatable option, especially considering that he contributes a little bit everywhere else without hurting your team's bottom line in any of the five standard Roto categories. Recommendation: Nix is a top 10 option at shortstop, which is a premium in AL-only leagues where shortstop production has been thin. Nix should be owned in all but the shallowest of mixed leagues (10 or fewer teams, no MI/CI requirements). Scott Sizemore | Detroit | 2B | 3 percent Yahoo ownership YTD: .205/.282/.282 Oliver ROS: .251/.318/.383 Despite a less than inspiring turn in the majors earlier this season (135 PA, .205/.282/.282), Sizemore found his stride in the pitcher-friendly International League (320 PA, .297/.379/.462). Major League Splits pegs this performance as worth a .263/.331/.396 (.727 OPS) major league equivalent line, but he's flashed enough middle infield pop (.165 ISO) and speed (16-for-19 in stolen bases over 650 PA) in Triple-A that I'd peg him for the over on MLS' projections. With rosters expanding this week and the Tigers out of contention for 2010, Detroit will likely give Sizemore a second chance (and a decent leash) to find his major league legs. As someone capable of a 15/15 line up the middle with quality average upside to boot (22.3 percnet LD rate in Triple-A this season), Sizemore presents an intriguing option for AL-only owners in (desperate) need of middle infield/second base production. Where the getting is thin and guys like Raburn are unavailable, Sizemore may present the most upside of likely available options. Of course, I highly recommend exploring Nix (also 2B eligible) first, but where his services are unavailable, consider giving Sizemore a shot (so long as the Tigers play him). Recommendation: Sizemore is an ownable 2B/MI option for AL-only and deeper mixed leagues (14-plus teams, MI-requirements) if given a steady diet of at bats. Sizemore's playing time and lineup positioning should be monitored closely. Koji Uehara | Baltimore | RP, SP | 27 percent Yahoo ownership YTD: 1.80 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.60 K/9, 1.50 BB/9 Oliver ROS: 3.89 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 Closer carousel in Baltimore continues. I've lamented plenty in the past about how you do not want a part of the Baltimore and Arizona bullpen situations if you have the luxury to avoid the fiascos. However, with seemingly stable Alfredo Simon out of a job due to second-half turbulence (5.87 ERA, 17:9 K/BB over 23 innings), the Orioles seem to have turned to Koji Uehara ((1.80 ERA/1.47 FIP/3.38 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP) and his 87.9 mph fastball) over the rekindled fastball of Mike Gonzalez (1.97 ERA, 13:5 K/BB over 13.2 IP since returning from the DL, 92.3 mph fastball for the rest of the season. Uehara, who has a games-finished clause in his contract, is no stranger to the relief role and had been a solid starter in 2009 (4.00 K/BB, 3.56 FIP, 1.25 WHIP) before durability concerns pushed him to the pen in 2010. Though I think Gonzalez, if healthy, has the better stuff for closing, Uehara is nonetheless a solid relief option with plenty of potential to nail the job down. So far this season, Uehara has produced 32 strikeouts to only five walks over 30 innings of work. He's five-for-five in save opportunities and shut down the Boston offense earlier this week. In terms of late-season closers, Uehara is a rare confidence-inspiring option. In contrast to Arizona, where the Juan Gutierrez/Aaron Heilman project always has its roller-coaster highs and lows, I think Uehara will end up providing owners with solid production without the need for Alka Seltzer tablets. Whereas wild guys like Brandon Lyon and Juan Gutierrez present the risk of the part-inning explosion with their saves package, Uehara's plus-control (career 1.58 BB/9, 4.71 K/BB) should mitigate any damage. I view Uehara as a stable enough pitcher that owners in need of saves (or in need of preventing others from getting saves) should acquire his services where available. I'd prefer to own him over anyone in the Pirates, Angels, Brewers (sorry John Axford, but the Brew Crew wants to get TrevorHoffman No. 600 this season), Astros, injured White Sox or Diamondback bullpens. Adjust your rosters accordingly. Recommendation: Uehara is a must-own commodity in all formats. Fernando Rodney | Los Angeles (AL) | RP | 36 percent Yahoo ownership YTD: 3.79 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.59 K/9, 4.61 BB/9 Oliver ROS: 4.56 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 4.7 BB/9 You take your saves where you can find them and in Anaheim, that source is currently Fernando Rodney in the wake of Brian Fuentes being traded to Minnesota, "where closers go to die" (Jon Rauch lost his closing gig earlier in the season and his replacement, Matt Capps, will likely lose his job in 2011). Most depressing to me is that at my league's trade deadline, I had a choice of Fuentes or David Aardsma and I chose the former. Rodney is by no means a reliable or sexy option for saves. His transition to the West Coast from Detroit has come with a decline in strikeouts (6.59 K/9 this season, 8.28 career mark) without a corollary decline in walk propensity (4.61 BB/9 this season, 4.63 career mark). The results have been a 4.62 xFIP (4.42 mark in 2009) and a should-be-worse ERA masked by good luck (74.9 percent LOB rate, .283 BABIP) for the second straight season. Rodney's lack of control (1.43 K/BB) and volatility may lead to Kevin Jepsen (3.02 FIP/3.40 xFIP, 2.32 K/BB, 56.3 percent GB rate) getting the ninth inning duties sooner rather than later, but for now manager Mike Scioscia has made it clear that Rodney is his man. I'd personally deploy Rodney based on match-ups (not using him against the Yankees, Red Sox or Twins), but those in need of making up saves this late in the season will probably need to stomach the combustible risk that is Fernando Rodney as a daily player. Recommendation: Rodney should be owned in all formats, but monitored closely. If you have the luxury, play the series match-ups. Danny Valencia | Minnesota | 3B | 5 percent Yahoo ownership YTD: .332/.375/.447 ZiPS ROS: .314/.359/.360 The Twins are the A's St. Louis equivalent: They have no legitimate third basemen who can hit (or field) particularly well. For the present, Minnesota has turned to Danny Valencia to fill that vacancy. I would not recommend you do likewise if you are need of a hot corner stopgap in even the shallowest of AL only leagues (especially given that Nix is available in more leagues). To sum of my portrait of Valencia: no speed, minimum power, bating seventh, minimum power. Though the Twins lineup (third best in the majors in team wOBA) is quite productive all around, batting in the bottom third of the order does not inspire much confidence in Valencia's runs/RBI potential. That, paired with a speed score that has only once (Double-A, 2008) eclipsed the 5.0 mark and a minor league ISO of .170, inspires little confidence in Valencia's Roto value. Per Minor League Splits, Valencia's .292/.347/.373 line (0 HR) in the International League is worth only a .255/.302/.324 MLE. MLS's career MLE for Valencia is even more depressing (.243/.284/.362). All considered, there is little like about Valencia, whose .332 average on the season is the prototypical definition of an "empty batting average." Recommendation: Unless Valencia gets slotted somewhere in the No. 2-5 hole for the Twins (which is highly unlikely), I cannot recommend Valencia as an option even for AL-only leagues. Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 6:04am (1) Comments Waiver Wire: NL, Week 22Aroldis Chapman | Cincinnati | SP/RP | 35 percent Yahoo! ownership YTD: 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, 100.0 GB (2 innings pitched) Oliver ROS: 5.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 2.00 K/BB Armed with a blazing triple-digit heater, southpaw Aroldis Chapman has been all the buzz since his promotion to the Reds. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, buzz doesn't win fantasy championships, and coming out of the pen in a non-closer capacity means his 2010 impact will be mitigated from what it would be as either a starter or a closer. That said, Chapman does have a chance to help owners nearing their innings pitched limits in roto leagues, those using holds, and those in extremely deep leagues that value high strikeout relievers. Since moving to the bullpen in Triple-A, Chapman has been electric. As a reliever he posted a 14.07 K/9 with a 51.6 groundball rate while limiting the walks to a respectable 3.45 BB/9. If Chapman is able to post a K/9 north of 10 and a BB/9 south of 3.8 or so, he has a chance to be useful in strikeouts and ratios with a chance at some cheap wins, all in a limited innings role. Those in shallow leagues should ignore the hype surrounding Chapman in the short term, but those owners in deep leagues or nearing their innings limit and in need of strikeouts should give Chapman a test run. Recommendation: Should be owned in some deep mixed leagues as a cheap source of strikeouts, should be owned in most NL-only leagues. Hisanori Takahashi | New York (NL) | SP/RP | 25 percent Yahoo! ownership YTD: 3.95 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.41 K/9, 2.56 K/BB, 38.0 GB Oliver ROS: 3.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 2.4 K/BB The premature end to Francisco Rodriguez's 2010 campaign has left an open closer role, which Hisanori Takahashi has seemingly stepped up and taken for the remainder of the year. At this point, those in tight saves races, or those in need of saves in head-to-head leagues, are likely to turn over any stone in the hopes of finding saves underneath. Takahashi's pitch mix isn't that of your typical close—his best offerings are his slider and his changeup. Regardless of how he gets the job done, saves are the end game here, and he's even been able to post a decent strikeout-rate. Inducing just 38.0 percent GB means that there may be some bumps in the road, but that price is minor in relation to the potential gains of saves, and, given his solid K/BB rate, isn't likely to be too damning to one's ERA. Recommendation: Should be owned by all save-starved owners regardless of league size. Jordan Zimmermann | Washington | SP | 5 percent Yahoo! ownership YTD: 4.50 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 11.70 K/9, 13.00 K/BB, 39.1 GB Oliver ROS: 4.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 4.00 K/BB A frequent visitor to this weekly column, Jordan Zimmermann returns thanks in large part to a six-inning gem against the Marlins in which he allowed only one hit and zero walks and struck out nine. Somewhat lost among the devastating news to the Nationals of uber-prospect turned succeeding major league hurler Stephen Strasburg needing Tommy John surgery is the return of Tommy John surgery victim Zimmermann. Velocity readings on all four of Zimmermann's pitches suggest he's fully back and recovered. While it's almost certain the Nationals will be cautious with Zimmermann, as they should be, he's likely to get at least a turn or two more in the rotation to get his innings pitched up this year so they can build on that total next year. Zimmermann is vastly underowned—he's available in in 95 percent of Yahoo! leagues. He has the pedigree and the goods to be a true difference maker down the stretch. Those in need of quality innings in roto and head-to-head league formats should take a gamble on Zimmermann. Recommendation: Should be owned in some 12-team mixed leagues and almost all larger mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Cameron Maybin | Florida | OF | 5 percent Yahoo! ownership YTD: .236/.294/.366 Oliver ROS: .257/.329/.390 The toolsy Cameron Maybin has done little but flash his potential and tease in his previous major league stints, but given his skills, his everyday spot in the outfield since Cody Ross' departure to San Francisco bears mention. In 236 plate appearances this season Maybin has smacked seven home runs while stealing six bases. Not staggering numbers, but useful. Unfortunately, they've been tied to a .236/.294/.366 slash, limiting his value. In 147 Triple-A plate appearances, Maybin was able to slash .338/.407/.508, hitting four home runs and stealing five bases while posting a 8.8 percent walk rate and an 18.5 percent strikeout rate. It remains to be seen if his strikeout rate gain will translate to the majors, Early returns aren't terribly promising: He's struck out in 10 of 34 at-bats since his most recent promotion in August. Those in need of some contributions in home runs and stolen bases may want to give Maybin a look and hope he can put his tools to use for you down the stretch. Recommendation: Should be owned in some 12-team mixed leagues using five outfielders and most larger mixed leagues using five-outfielders. Should be owned in most NL-only leagues. Brandon Allen | Arizona |1B/OF | 1 percent Yahoo! ownership YTD: .667/.667/.1.667 (3 AB) Oliver ROS: No projection Mentioned in last week's article, Brandon Allen has received the September call-up I expected. He paid immediate dividends for those who had him in their lineups for his first major league start this year at the major league level by slugging a grand slam and a single. Posting a .261/.405/.528 slash means that, as I have previously mentioned, he may be a drag on owners' batting average. While he may have his batting average struggles, Allen offers an opportunity for some home runs and even stolen bases as his 25 HR and 14 stolen bases in Triple-A point to. Those with some wiggle room in batting average in need of some pop and possibly some speed need to make room for Allen. Recommendation: Should be owned in some 12-team mixed leagues using five-outfielders and most larger mixed leagues using five-outfielders, should be owned in most NL-only leagues. Lucas Duda | New York (NL) | OF | 0 percent Yahoo! ownership YTD: .000/.000/.000 (3 AB) Oliver ROS: No projection Lucas Duda opened the season ranked outside the Mets' top-30 prospects according to the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, making him a surprising potential contributor to fantasy owners at season's end. In 425 at-bats split between Double-A and Triple-A (161 AB in Double-A and 264 in Triple-A) Duda slashed .304/.398/.569 with 23 home runs and a 60:84 walk-to-strikeout rate, and his MLE for his 264 Triple-A at bats was .262/.324/.487. Duda's OPS, north of .900 in both high minors stops, makes him an intriguing gamble for owners in need of some pop. His solid walk-to-strikeout rate illustrates he has nothing left to prove in the minors; his next and last test is succeeding against major league pitching. A September audition will not be a large enough sample size to draw any solid conclusions, but given his low prospect status, Duda has a lot on the line. Maybe Duda will play with a chip on his shoulder for those looking to take a gamble on him for his pop down the stretch. Recommendation: Should be owned in some 14-team mixed leagues using five-outfielders. Should be owned in some NL-only leagues. Posted by Josh Shepardson at 7:00am (4) Comments Tuesday, September 07, 2010Auction magic: Let others do your biddingI lack the talent, eyesight and courage to land a jet on an aircraft carrier. For that matter, I would rather ride a ferris wheel than a roller coaster. So when it comes to high-risk landings with little margin for error, this season in my auction league may be as close I get. I've lamented enough about the mounting injuries to my American League squad, so I won't break out the violins. Suffice it to say my left engine is shot, my fuel tank needle is on the wrong side of empty and my goggles have fogged up so much I can barely make out the money spots on the flight deck as we enter the last four weeks of the season. In our league there is not the saving grace of waiver wire pickups, We are stuck with our 40-man rosters except for trades and once-a-month free agent auctions. The trade option is remote as we can only swap with teams contiguous in the standings after our August trade deadline. So that leaves our final free agent auction. We start each season with $100 each for monthly auctions plus any money left unspent in our annual auction, money we can use to bid on anyone who doesn't play for a National League organization—I've used my budget in years past to get bullpen guns who might someday assume the closer mantel, prospects I hope may land a gig the following year and the odd National League player who gets traded to the junior circuit. The latter isn't all that common a phenomenon since our league has a bizarre rule I've tried without success to get sacked: Any owner who loses a player to a trade to the NL can get in return a player who gets swapped back at the same salary and contract status as the player he lost. If multiple players are traded and more than one owner loses players in that deal, the owner that loses the highest salaried player gets dibs on which player he wants in return. The rule has meant huge windfalls for owners who lose a prospect in a trade of prospects for an establish star—they get the star for the salary of a prospect. But this year has been different. The White Sox gave up no one to get Manny Ramirez, so he becomes the prize catch in a free agent auction that includes: —New and successful closer Koji Uehara, whom I had picked up early this season, dropped after his injury woes and almost bid for in our August free agent auction. He is easily the best of the closer candidates the Orioles have cycled through and is a great September pickup for those needing saves. His only downside is his injury history. —Ivan Nova is a solid and I think under-rated prospect who should get wins pitching for the Yankees. —Brad Hawpe, like Manny, came to the AL in a player-free transaction. —Jeff Francoeur will only hit against lefties for Texas but might be a nice fit for a team that needs a little power without sacrificing average as he has historically hit much better against left-handers and will now face some of them in a hitter-friendly park. By the standards of our deep league of 12 teams, the free agent buffet is rather plentiful. My problem is this: I don't have enough left in my free agent budget to even get to the sneeze guard. In May I started with a free agent budget of $105 and facing a future without Kelly Shoppach (which doesn't seem so bad in hindsight) I plugged what I thought was my only hole with John Jaso, spending $37. Now Jaso has been pretty good, walking more than he strikes out, hitting for a good average (.281) with a sustainable BABIP (.301) and showing a little power and speed: He's hit five homers and stole four bases in fewer than 300 at-bats. I just wish I bid a bit less—the next-highest bid was $25. That month I also picked up Darren Oliver for $3 and Uehara for $9 before letting him go when injuries sidelined him. In June I was chasing Oriole closers again, a perilous task, and blew $11 on Will Ohman and $2 on Jim Johnson. The next month I landed Kevin Frandsen for $15 to replace an injured Asdrubal Cabrera and $24 for Connor Jackson to replace Mike Cameron. My only bid that might succeed was my cheapest: $1 for Mark Trumbo, who I expect will be called up now that the Triple-A regular season has ended. That left me with all of $3 for free agent auctions in August in September. And that would seemingly put me out of the race to get Manny and anyone but under-the-radar prospects at this point. To make matters worse, while I cling tenuously to second place, the team in third place has the biggest war chest among the contenders—$44. If he were to get Manny, Uehara and Nova, my chances of staying second would evaporate entirely. But rather than despair, I tried something new. While I couldn't out-bid my rival, perhaps I could find other owners who could and persuade them to do so. I turned my focus to an owner who has no chance of finishing in the money—he's so far behind in offensive categories he can't make up enough ground to pass others and get much beyond his ninth-place standing. He hadn't placed a bid all year, so he had $100 to his name. What he hadn't noticed was that just above him in the standings were three owners still trying to move up to the money, which in our league are the top four slots. So I called him and pointed out just that: He could out bid anyone and flip the winnings to an owner above him who would surely give up something useful for next year. Spending $45 each on Manny and Uehara would give him the most marketable talent. He'd benefit next year and I would be a happy bystander because I rather see those two flipped to an eighth-place team than to the third-place team. He agreed to place the bids. Then I phoned our first-place owner, who is 30 points ahead, in first in five categories and second in the other three. He too had no reason on the surface to bid for a player this year because he is a lock to win. I reminded him I was in a tight battle for wins and might be interested in trading next-year talent for Ivan Nova should he get him. He saw the wisdom of that and has $16 in his free agent budget, almost certainly enough to reel him in. I made no guarantee if a trade: I said I hoped to have enough wins with the starters I have to not need Nova. But the possibility I met held enough value to him to make a play. My hard work done, I set out to spend my final $3. I decided to make a $2 play for Francoeur. While others available will get more playing time, I am in the delicate position of trying to pick up a few more RBIs while also improving or at least maintaining my batting average, and players such as Daniel Nava risk damaging the latter. Also, I think Hawpe will go for well above $2. I also made a $1 bid for a prospect I think has flown under the radar, Leslie Anderson, a 28-year-old Cuban defector who is a dark horse to grab a starting spot next year with the Rays, who will be without free agents Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford and weren't entirely pleased with production in right field. Anderson lacks the power bat of a corner infielder or outfielder but had been ripping line drives the past two months and his performance is impressive considering how much he has had to adjust—36% of his batted balls in Triple-A have been line drives. I'm awaiting the results of the auction—we usually have them by Sunday, but I suspect our commissioner may be enjoying the Labor Day weekend, not aware of just how hard I have labored not with my own hand but trying to persuade others to make a play at the pot. I'll let you know how it goes. In the meantime, I'd love to hear some of the more creative and innovative things you've done to compete in your league. Posted by Jonathan Sher at 1:39am (1) Comments Wednesday, September 08, 2010Making a run for—or from—the moneyA few columns ago, I touched on the idea that some categories are valued more highly than others. On offense, I theorize that the stat that gets the shaft is runs. In fact, perhaps this theory is an outgrowth of my own bias. I’m having a rough fantasy season this year and may not earn a single league title for the first time in at least four years. This weekend, I spent a bit of time looking into whether there were trends across my teams that could provide insight into strategic flaws in my preseason approach. Besides my penchant for drafting injured players, the other trend that became rather clear was that I didn’t draft enough top-of-the-order hitters and thus have experienced an omnipresent lack of runs scored. I can peg two reasons why I dug this hole for myself. First and foremost, I am guilty of not paying too much attention to runs, for their own sake, during my drafts. I’m a sabermetrically inclined guy, as I’m sure many of you are as well, so I have a preference for higher OBP-type players, even in non-OBP leagues. I think there’s value to be had in these types of players because their walks bump their ability to score runs and keep the AB total a bit lower, helping to ease the impact of subpar batting averages. So, my way of addressing the need for runs scored has largely been to draft heavy on offense with my top picks and lean toward high OBP players, under the assumption rest will take care of itself. Maybe this autopilot method isn’t sufficient on its own. The second contributing factor to my dearth of runs scored may have to do with my strategy regarding middle infielders. I’m known to employ something of a stars and scrubs approach to my middle-infield slots. I have no problem spending for a Chase Utley or Troy Tulowitzki, but I often feel that the second- and third-tier middle infielders are poor values. Many of the higher-caliber middle infielders lean more toward being run scorers as opposed to RBI-men, so perhaps that’s been skewing the skillset balance on my rosters. But the question at hand here is really, how I do rectify this strategic blind spot? How much attention is it advisable to pay toward run scoring as a “skill” when drafting, and in what sort of metrics should I use as a proxy when drafting to ensure I’m getting enough of what I need? Intuitively, it still feels like folly, or at least not the greatest value proposition, to spend all that much effort tracking my runs. It’s hard for me to get past how much of a team stat runs scored really is. I also feel like once you get past the stars, runs scored totals are difficult to predict. And then there’s the question of volume. Runs scored are the most plentiful stat out there, which leads me to consider small differences in expectation all but meaningless at draft time. Perhaps, filling this void would best be accomplished by proxy. One strategic modification that might help could be to scale back my willingness to take on players with poor batting averages. This might lead me to draft fewer lumbering slugger types and more top-of-the-order hitters. Perhaps, I’ve been all too willing to draft the Carlos Penas, and all too hesitant to draft the Michael Youngs. Another way to address this might be just to track the projected line-up slot of my players as I’m assembling my team. You can never have too many third- and fourth-place hitters, but a quick overview of my rosters reveals that on most of my teams, I have more fifth- and sixth-place hitters than first and second. As a columnist here, I don’t have all the answers. But sometimes it’s a good start to just come up with the questions. What are your thoughts about drafting runs scored?; do you pay that category equal attention to every other one or do you just use sort of proxy? I presume the full-on quants will say that one should pay each category equal attention. So, to them, I will ask whether their models have shown to be equally accurate in predicting performance in each category. And, if not, which categories are the most volatile, and do you attempt to address that volatility when drafting or just use the model and hope it’s having a good year in terms of accuracy? Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 4:58am (7) Comments Thursday, September 09, 2010(Over-) Rating pitchers for next yearThis has been a year for pitchers. The list of the top pitchers who have totally imploded (e.g. Jake Peavy and Josh Beckett) is relatively short, while the list of up-and-coming pitchers who fully arrived seems rather long (Ubaldo Jimenez, Mat Latos, Clay Buchholz, Brandon Morrow, to name a few). I thought I’d categorize the “top 25” starting pitchers for next year and use the categories to make a few points about keepers. Aces of Spades: Roy Halladay Adam Wainwright Felix Hernandez Josh Johnson Chris Carpenter CC Sabathia Cliff Lee Jon Lester Justin Verlander Borderline Aces: Johan Santana Cole Hamels Ubaldo Jimenez Tim Lincecum Zack Greinke I want to see them do it again (and they probably will): David Price Jered Weaver Clayton Kershaw Francisco Liriano Mat Latos I want to see them do it again (and maybe they will) Tommy Hanson Clay Buchholz Shaun Marcum Brett Anderson Want to see a lot more: Trevor Cahill Ricky Romero Dallas Braden Max Scherzer Jonathan Sanchez Gio Gonzalez Solid number twos: Matt Cain Roy Oswalt Yovani Gallardo Comeback kids (Not-as-solid number twos): Carl Pavano Brett Myers Solid number threes: Ryan Dempster Ted Lilly Hiroki Kuroda Tim Hudson Wandy Rodriguez Down on them: John Danks C.J. Wilson Jamie Garcia Matt Garza Oddballs: R.A. Dickey Bronson Arroyo This year’s disappointments and crashes: Dan Haren Josh Beckett Javier Vasquez John Lackey OK that was fun. Obviously there are more than 25 pitchers here (I just took the top 45 or so pitchers according to CBS Sportsline’s rating plus a few others who fell off the list). But apart from a few of these guys, most of them could appear on many top-25 lists. Many of the pitchers who are fringe candidates for these lists have one or more eye-popping stats: Gio Gonzalez has a 3.121 ERA; Dickey has a 2.907 ERA and a 1.184 WHIP; Tim Hudson has a 2.409 ERA and a 1.101 WHIP. It’d be pretty easy to convince yourself that someone like Hudson is worth keeping for next year. Of course, whether he is depends on the costs of keeping him. But there are a few things to keep in mind: - The supply of really-good-but-not-top-notch pitchers is fairly large. Even if you’re in a 12-team league where each team can keep two pitchers, you’d still have plenty of worthwhile candidates to choose from if you didn’t keep any (and, say, kept the draft picks instead). - Variance in pitching is huge. This is fairly well known—pitching performance, even at the top level, fluctuates a lot from year to year, never mind health concerns. - There are a bunch of pitchers just off this list who could be on it next September: Chad Billingsley, Johnny Cueto, Brandon Webb, Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Edinson Volquez. Some of these guys had skills and lost them. Some of them had injuries. Some just haven’t had a large enough track record yet (though I bet Daniel Hudson is on a few top-25s anyway). And then there’s Strasburg. He is unkeepable in any league that imposes any kind of opportunity cost on keepers. Even if it is just a roster spot on your DL for next year, he’s still not worth keeping. (Well, you can, but I’d just cut him as soon as you had someone more immediate for your DL spot next season. And since everyone uses their DL spots throughout the season, you will end up cutting him anyway sooner or later.) Maybe I’d keep him in a dynasty league with permanently low keeper costs. Chances are Strasburg will return in 2012 in fine fettle. But even then, it will likely be a few months into the season before he returns to some kind of peak form. And of course, he may not fully return ever, or at least for a while after he starts pitching again. This kind of uncertainty both on your bench and perhaps on your starting roster eventually has large costs. These are costs that you don’t need to pay when there are so many good pitchers each year who come out of the woodwork. Posted by Jonathan Halket at 1:05am (13) Comments Average and prime year projections part 3Brett Lawrie / 2B/3B/OF / Milwaukee Average Year Projection: .288 / .351 / 14 HR / 37 2B / 6 3B / 80 RBI / 84 R / 53 BB / 125 SO / 12 SB / 4 CS Prime Year Projection: .301 / .370 / 19 HR / 38 2B / 7 3B / 91 RBI / 97 R / 59 BB / 117 SO / 16 SB / 4 CS Michael Pineda / SP / Seattle Average Year Projection: 195 IP / 4.37 ERA / 1.34 WHIP / 12 W / 11 L / 170 SO / 195 H / 67 BB Prime Year Projection: 208 IP / 3.77 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 189 SO / 197 H / 60 BB Freddie Freeman / 1B / Atlanta Average Year Projection: .300 / .365 / 18 HR / 38 2B / 2 3B / 87 RBI / 79 R / 57 BB / 119 SO / 3 SB / 1 CS Prime Year Projection: .311 / .383 / 21 HR / 39 2B / 2 3B / 95 RBI / 85 R / 65 BB / 111 SO / 4 SB / 1 CS Dan Hudson / SP / Arizona Average Year Projection: 202 IP / 4.40 ERA / 1.32 WHIP / 13 W / 12 L / 168 SO / 199 H / 67 BB Prime Year Projection: 211 IP / 3.91 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / 14 W / 12 L / 181 SO / 202 H / 62 BB Simon Castro / SP/RP / San Diego Average Year Projection: 200 IP / 4.38 ERA / 1.36 WHIP / 13 W / 12 L / 169 SO / 200 H / 71 BB Prime Year Projection: 210 IP / 3.86 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 184 SO / 203 H / 63 BB Jake McGee / SP/RP / Tampa Bay Average Year Projection: 193 IP / 4.49 ERA / 1.34 WHIP / 12 W / 11 L / 165 SO / 191 H / 68 BB Prime Year Projection: 204 IP / 3.94 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 182 SO / 195 H / 61 BB Michael Saunders / OF / Seattle Average Year Projection: .266 / .336 / 14 HR / 33 2B / 2 3B / 75 RBI / 77 R / 58 BB / 126 SO / 11 SB / 4 CS Prime Year Projection: .277 / .353 / 18 HR / 34 2B / 2 3B / 82 RBI / 85 R / 64 BB / 119 SO / 15 SB / 5 CS Brett Wallace / 1B/3B / Houston Average Year Projection: .271 / .342 / 20 HR / 33 2B / 1 3B / 85 RBI / 80 R / 60 BB / 126 SO / 1 SB / 1 CS Prime Year Projection: .281 / .359 / 24 HR / 34 2B / 1 3B / 93 RBI / 86 R / 69 BB / 117 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS Alcides Escobar / SS / Milwaukee Average Year Projection: .279 / .332 / 7 HR / 25 2B / 7 3B / 57 RBI / 87 R / 44 BB / 78 SO / 24 SB / 6 CS Prime Year Projection: .291 / .351 / 9 HR / 26 2B / 8 3B / 64 RBI / 96 R / 51 BB / 70 SO / 31 SB / 7 CS Ike Davis / 1B / NY Mets Average Year Projection: .267 / .349 / 20 HR / 32 2B / 1 3B / 78 RBI / 72 R / 70 BB / 133 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS Prime Year Projection: .276 / .362 / 25 HR / 33 2B / 2 3B / 87 RBI / 80 R / 75 BB / 123 SO / 3 SB / 1 CS Kyle Drabek / SP / Toronto Average Year Projection: 207 IP / 4.56 ERA / 1.37 WHIP / 12 W / 12 L / 160 SO / 208 H / 76 BB Prime Year Projection: 216 IP / 4.09 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / 13 W / 12 L / 174 SO / 212 H / 71 BB J.P. Arencibia / C / Toronto Average Year Projection: .259 / .321 / 16 HR / 30 2B / 1 3B / 72 RBI / 62 R / 43 BB / 113 SO / 1 SB / 1 CS Prime Year Projection: .268 / .335 / 19 HR / 31 2B / 1 3B / 78 RBI / 66 R / 48 BB / 107 SO / 1 SB / 1 CS Dustin Ackley / 2B/OF/1B / Seattle Average Year Projection: .270 / .353 / 12 HR / 38 2B / 6 3B / 73 RBI / 76 R / 72 BB / 102 SO / 10 SB / 3 CS Prime Year Projection: .280 / .369 / 16 HR / 39 2B / 7 3B / 83 RBI / 85 R / 78 BB / 96 SO / 13 SB / 3 CS Lonnie Chisenhall / 3B / Cleveland Average Year Projection: .267 / .331 / 13 HR / 32 2B / 3 3B / 74 RBI / 74 R / 53 BB / 104 SO / 4 SB / 2 CS Prime Year Projection: .278 / .347 / 18 HR / 33 2B / 3 3B / 85 RBI / 83 R / 59 BB / 97 SO / 6 SB / 2 CS Devin Mesoraco / C / Cincinnati Average Year Projection: .260 / .317 / 14 HR / 26 2B / 2 3B / 69 RBI / 58 R / 40 BB / 106 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS Prime Year Projection: .271 / .333 / 18 HR / 27 2B / 2 3B / 76 RBI / 65 R / 44 BB / 100 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS Posted by Matt Hagen at 1:04am (2) Comments Friday, September 10, 2010Waiver Wire: NL, Week 23Ryan Madson | Philadelphia | RP | 27 percent Yahoo! ownership YTD: 2.74 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 11.60 K/9, 7.86 K/BB, 50.5 GB Oliver ROS: 4.00 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 4.00 K/BB With news of Brad Lidge having elbow soreness because of a hyperextended elbow, Ryan Madson becomes a player of interest for those in need of saves. While reports are that Lidge should be good to go by Friday, it is worth speculating that he may not be, or that he simply may not be effective in the short term, if you are an owner in need of saves. Madson has been electric this year, which his 2.44 xFIP and his other underlying skills-based stats support. Even if Madson can't pick up any saves, he should have worth to owners nearing their innings-pitched caps who are looking to squeeze out every last strikeout and help their ratios. Recommendation: Should be owned by save-desperate owners in the short term as well as owners looking for strikeouts and ratio help while approaching their seasonal innings-pitched caps. Clay Hensley | Florida | RP | 9 percent Yahoo! ownership YTD: 2.54 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 9.47 K/9, 2.00 K/BB 51.9 GB Oliver ROS: 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 2.00 K/BB Clay Hensley has put together quite the season in the Florida bullpen and with news that Leo Nunez has been removed from the closers role until, "he regains his confidence," according to Marlins manager Edwin Rodriguez, Hensley may be able to add some saves to his stellar line as the Marlins' interim closer. There haven't been any save opportunities for the Marlins since Hensley has taken on the r role, so it is anyone's guess as to whether he'll actually be trotted out for the next save opportunity. Regardless, if you need saves, now is the time to gamble that Hensley holds the role for at least a couple of save opportunities. Hensley's ability to strike out more than a batter per inning this season has been supported by his 11.9 percent swinging strike rate (8.5 is league average) and his 71.6 percent contact rate (80.9 is league average), and his worm-burning ways also make him a solid choice to turn to in save situations. Like Madson, Hensley should be helpful in ratios and strikeouts for those approaching their innings-pitched caps. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues while he's the interim closer. Jhoulys Chacin | Colorado | SP | 15 percent Yahoo! ownership YTD: 3.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.29 K/9, 2.29 K/BB, 46.3 GB Oliver ROS: 3.86 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 2.0 K/BB In looking ahead at the Rockies schedule, it appears that Jhoulys Chacin's next start will come against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday. This is good news for his current owners, and good news for those looking to pluck him off the waiver wire in the 85 percent of Yahoo! leagues he's available. In his last start against them on Aug. 22 he threw 7.2 scoreless innings of three-hit, one walk, nine strikeout baseball. On the season against them he's thrown 20.1 innings of five earned run baseball walking six and striking out 25 batters. With a solid strikeout rate on the season against the Diamondbacks, and on the season as a whole, Chacin is a good addition for strikeouts alone. However, strikeouts may not be the only category Chacin is helpful in, since the Rockies are surging, and the Diamondbacks have been bad all season, making him a reasonable gamble to pick up the win on Sunday. Walks have been an issue for Chacin, so he certainly isn't a risk-free stream, but his groundball-inducing ways and solid strikeout rate should help offset any possible bouts of wildness. Recommendation: Should be owned in most 14-team or larger mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Kosuke Fukudome | Chicago (NL) | OF | 14 percent Yahoo! ownership YTD: .279/.382/.462 Oliver ROS: .255/.362/.400 Not a standout contributor in any one category, Kosuke Fukudome is a solid glue guy who is worth owning while he's hot, which he currently is. In 90 at-bats since the All-Star break Fukudome's slash sits at .344/.464/.578 with a 20:15 BB:K rate and four home runs. There has been very little difference in his splits against left handers and right handers, so he's worth starting against both, but it is important to note he's only received 32 at-bats against southpaws on the year. Owners looking for a little help across the board, perhaps a couple of home runs, maybe a steal or two, and some solid counting stats with a useful batting average should give Fukudome a look down the stretch run. Recommendation: Should be owned in most 12-team or larger mixed leagues using five outfielders. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Eric Young Jr. | Colorado | 2B/OF | 5 percent Yahoo! ownership YTD: .254/.323/.314 Oliver ROS: .253/.320/.343 Eric Young Jr. likely seems like a permanent resident of the NL Waiver Wire column, yet he continues to be unowned in 95 percent of Yahoo! leagues in spite of his awesome stolen base skills. Young continues to display little to no pop, but for those looking for stolen bases, that's a good thing. Of the 42 times Young has gotten on base (not by error), 36 of them have been by single or walk, leaving him the opportunity to swipe second base. In just 118 at-bats he has been able to steal 14 bases while being caught only three times. With a .323 OBP, runs may not come in bunches, but they do remain a possible second category Young can boost. While he isn't a must-own for all owners, he is for those in need of steals. Recommendation: Should be owned by all owners in need of stolen bases Ryan Doumit | Pittsburgh | C/OF | 41 percent Yahoo! ownership YTD: .258/.338/.424 Oliver ROS: .259/.317/.418 Since the Pirates' acquisition of Chris Snyder, Ryan Doumit has seen some playing time in the outfield in addition to catching duty. Owned in just 41 percent of Yahoo! leagues, Doumit possesses some pop, and has a chance to help owners in need of help behind the dish. On the season he has 12 home runs in 356 at-bats, not a monster total, but certainly helpful considering his position eligibility. Over the last 30 days Doumit has been especially useful posting a 10:18 BB:K with four home runs and a .354 OBP, albeit just a .264 batting average. In two-catcher leagues Doumit has likely been owned all year, but in one catcher formats it's possible he's lurking on the waiver wire. Those in daily change formats with deep benches should consider owning two catchers and sitting Doumit against lefties, against whom his slash is just .182/.261/.273, and taking advantage of his impressive .298/.376/.502 slash against righties. Recommendation: Should be owned in some 12-team mixed leagues or larger starting one catcher, and most larger mixed leagues using a single catcher. Should be owned in all two catcher formats and NL-only leagues. Posted by Josh Shepardson at 6:39am (0) Comments Monday, September 13, 2010CarGo is the MVPWhile the race for Most Valuable Player in the National League will go down to the wire with Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto and Albert Pujols, when it comes to fanatsy baseball, Carlos is in a league of his own. Pujols entered the year as the consensus top player in fantasy ball, Votto could lay claim to it best young superstar, but Gonzalez was more of a wild card, a player with power and speed but also poor plate discipline, a short track record of major league success and not even an iron-clad hold on a starting job. That he's matched them in triple crown stats while stealing bases at a harder-to-fill position has made him far more valuable—in fact he's far more valuable this season than any other player in baseball My draft team, the NorthExposures, was among the beneficiaries in our 14-owner mixed league, one of the countless public leagues at Yahoo. The chart below shows the list of 50 players who appear most often on Yahoo's top 500 Public League teams (rotisserie scoring): Player %500 Fantasy Team Draft position Carlos González 51.6 NorthExposures 110 Buster Posey 32.6 Honkers -- Mat Latos 31.8 NorthExposures 222 Adam Wainwright 31.6 The_Superhoo 49 Billy Wagner 30.2 Snipas 91 Francisco Liriano 27.8 The Little Ninjas 234 Juan Pierre 26.6 Honkers 236 John Axford 25.6 fHoogazi -- Álex Ríos 24.2 Vegas Breasts 158 Josh Hamilton 23.4 MR Hoos 93 Rafael Soriano 21.4 NorthExposures 143 David Price 21.4 The Little Ninjas 182 Carl Crawford 20.8 fHoogazi 17 Jon Lester 20.8 The Little Ninjas 47 Josh Johnson 20.4 fHoogazi 73 Martín Prado 20.4 Bealestreet Bluesmen 142 Hanley Ramírez 20.2 Bealestreet Bluesmen 2 Tim Hudson 20.2 Bealestreet Bluesmen 167 Chris Pérez 19.8 NorthExposures 274w Robinson Canó 19.6 Uni Va Cavs 41 Matt Capps 18.8 Snipas 218 Vladimir Guerrero 18.4 NorthExposures 194 Omar Infante 18.2 The_Superhoo 288 Jason Heyward 17.8 Snipas 106 José Bautista 17.8 fHoogazi -- Miguel Cabrera 17.6 Gus Burgher 14 José Reyes 17.2 NorthExposures 56 Ryan Franklin 17.0 WahooWasp 173 Max Scherzer 16.4 Vegas Breasts 213 Clay Buchholz 16.2 fHoogazi 292 Hong-Chih Kuo 16.2 Tiki -- Hunter Pence 16.0 Tiki 112 Joakim Soria 15.8 The_Superhoo 105 Joey Votto 15.8 Bealestreet Bluesmen 27 Brian Wilson 15.6 Bealestreet Bluesmen 139 Roy Halladay 15.6 The_Superhoo 21 Brandon Lyon 15.4 fHoogazi -- Ryan Zimmerman 15.4 MR Hoos 20 Heath Bell 15.2 Snipas 119 Andrés Torres 15.2 NorthExposures -- Ryan Raburn 15.0 Vegas Breasts -- Clayton Kershaw 14.6 NorthExposures 82 Tommy Hanson 14.6 The Little Ninjas 66 Brad Lidge 14.6 WahooWasp 224 Albert Pujols 14.4 Tiki 1 Brett Gardner 14.2 Uni Va Cavs -- Kevin Gregg 14.0 Honkers -- Trevor Cahill 14.0 Honkers -- Justin Verlander 13.8 WahooWasp 61 Nelson Cruz 13.8 NorthExposures 59 My thoughts and observations: (1) This reinforces my belief that while leagues can be lost in the early rounds, they are won in the middle and late rounds. You have to go down to the 17th most valuable player to find a first-round pick in Hanley Ramirez and only two other first-rounders cracked the top 50. (2) It sucked this year if you had the third pick of the first round, as I did. Pujols and Ramirez were vastly superior to anyone else heading into the season and proved why. (3) Miguel Cabrera is the type of player to take in the first couple of rounds: Safe, consistent, not prone to injury and young enough that he shouldn't regress. (4) Sixteen of the top 50 were selected after round 10 and 10 weren't selected at all. It really pays to research deeply enough to make strong picks later in the draft. (5) Toss out the pre-draft rankings and don't be afraid to over-draft a player you think is underrated. That's how I got Cargo, Cruz. Of course it's also how I ended up with Julio Borbon, so there is risk involved. (6) Here's an attempt to group the players, noting that some players fit in to several: - Budding stars: Gonzales, Cano, Zimmerman, Kershaw, Hanson, - top prospects: Posey, Latos, Axford, Heyward - Prospects a year or two later: Price, Perez, Scherzer, Buchholz, Rayburn, Gardner, Cahill - best of the best: Wainwright, Crawford, Lester, Johnson, Ramirez, Cabrera, Soria, Votto, Wilson, Halladay, Bell, Pujols, Verlander - injury risks: Wagner, Reyes, Hudson, Cruz - comeback kids: Liriano, Rios, Hamilton, Guerrero - one-dimensional wonders: Pierre, Franklin - underrated: Prado, Pence - change of scenery helped: Soriano - luck at a shallow position: Infante - out of left field: Bautista, Torres - Emerging closers: Kuo, Lyon, Lidge, Gregg (7) There is a deeper pool of prospects a year or two past their buzz than there are of current prospects. (8) Most of the "best of the best" are on the right side of 30. (9) Picking injury risks can be a viable strategy, but don't go overboard. (10) It surprised me Bautista was so low in the top-50, but perhaps our league was slow to pick him up as a waiver claim and missed out on some of his production. Or maybe there is a weaker correlation between good free agent acquisitions and a good overall finish than there is between good drafts and finishes since arguably the draft is more a product of skill where as free agent signing can simply be a matter of who is quickest. (11) I was able to build what looks to be the league winner with strong picks in the middle and late rounds. My NorthExposures ended up with two of the top three, three of the top 11, four of the top 19, five of the top 22, six of the top 27, seven of the top 40 and nine of the top 50, including one I picked up as a free agent (Torres). In the lower rounds, especially, go for players with high ceilings who are ranked low because they haven't fulfilled their potential, are injury risks or who struggled the previous year. | ||||