|
May 25, 2013
THT Essentials:
Rich Barbieri
John Barten Kyle Boddy Brian Borawski James Gentile Matt Hunter Frank Jackson Chris Jaffe Brad Johnson Jason Linden Dan Lependorf Bruce Markusen Jeff Moore Greg Simons Scott Spratt Dave Studeman Shane Tourtellotte Steve Treder And here's the full roster. Now available
Or you can search by:
THT E-book    All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons License. |
 Monday, November 22, 2010Fluke watch: Ricky RomeroRicky Romero is a groundball pitcher who just had a pretty successful second season for the Toronto Blue Jays, going 14-9 with a 3.73 ERA. He provides a reasonable, but not outstanding amount of strikeouts, but mainly his fantasy value is for his win-loss record (which will be hampered by him playing in the AL East) and his ERA (powered by his ability to get ground balls). His peripherals would seem to indicate the improvement from his rookie season's 4.30 ERA was not caused by luck, but does that mean we should expect him to keep improving, or at the very least replicate his results from this last year? Let's take a look at his pitches. Romero throws five pitches: a four-seam fastball that has cutting action, a two-seam fastball, a change-up, a slider and a curveball. His main pitch is the four-seam fastball (with cutting action—more on that later) and not the two-seam sinker, as one might expect from his groundball rate. (Romero uses the four-seam fastball at least 34.8 percent of the time, compared to 25.1 percent of the time for the two-seam fastball*.) The slider is basically used only against left-handed hitters (at the cost of some curveballs), and the change-up is naturally used more often against right-handed batters (26 percent of the time). Now as a left-handed pitcher, 75 percent of the batters facing Romero are right-handed. As such, Romero's pitches and their performance against right-handed batters are of greater importance to us in the long run than those against left-handed batters. Of course, his performance against left-handed batters is still relevant when it comes to match-ups. So did anything change in Romero's pitches to make him more effective? The answer is yes: Romero's four-seam fastball has seemed to gain even greater cutting action this year. The end result is that he has seen the emergence of what seem to be typical "cutter splits:" against left-handed (same-handed) batters, the pitch is terrible at getting ground balls, while against right-handed batters, the pitch is amazing at getting ground balls. Meanwhile the pitch's ability to get swinging strikes is the reverse: the pitch is reasonable for a fastball at getting swinging strikes against lefties, but is poor at getting them against right-handed batters. This has resulted in the groundball-getting ability of the four-seam fastball increasing against right-handed batters but at the cost of it dropping against left-handed batters. (Oddly enough, while the groundball rate reverse splits have really emerged in this last year, the only change in the swinging strike rate is that it has dropped greatly against left-handed batters from 2009 to 2010.) The end result is this: against right-handed batters, Romero is more effective and is likely to remain as such. Against left-handed batters, Romero is now less effective—as mentioned above, the pitch's swinging strike rate has not stayed high enough to counteract the low groundball rate—resulting in worse performance. For our purposes: Very little has changed in any of Romero's other pitches to merit any discussions. Such changes are unlikely to be the cause of any change in performance. Conclusion: All in all, I think that Romero's performance in 2011 is likely to be similar to his performance in 2010. But if you have him on your fantasy team, just be sure to monitor the handedness of opposing batters: against a team loaded with left-handed batters, who is unlikely to switch out those batters for right-handed bench players, Romero might be worth sitting down. Otherwise, his ERA should make him a decent fantasy starter next year. *NOTE: Due to how I classified the pitches, I may have undercounted four-seam fastballs and overcounted two-seamers. So take that under advisement. The split between these two pitches is likely greater than the numbers I've given above. Posted by Josh Smolow at 1:04am (3) Comments Tuesday, November 23, 2010Mysterious CarGo
If Jose Bautista ranks first, then Carlos Gonzalez is a close second for hitters with the most surprising season in 2010. In his first full season, CarGo (as he is sometimes referred to) compiled numbers that make up a fantasy line for the ages. In 636 plate appearances, Gonzalez managed to score 111 runs, blast 34 home runs, drive in 117, swipe 26 bases and hit an NL-leading .336. If that type of production doesn't satiate you then you must be insatiable. Those numbers are even more appealing because they were so accessible, requiring, at the earliest, probably a fifth round pick, and around a ninth rounder if you were especially lucky. Fantasy baseballers are a quick bunch though, and CarGo's services won't come cheaply in 2011. In all likelihood he will be gone by the end of the first round in most drafts, and will be a 40+ dollar bid for all you auctioneers out there. If it was guaranteed that I'd be getting those same numbers again, I'd happily spend my first round pick or 40-something auction dollars for his services. However that is far from guaranteed. First off, striking out in 23 percent of your plate appearances is not the path to sustaining a .330+ batting average. Making his average possible was a .384 BABIP, which exceeds his xBABIP of .344 by 40 points. A degree of regression should be expected next year, but even with his sub-par contact ability, CarGo is capable of batting in the .310s given his speed and line drive-hitting capabilities. As with most players who experience jumps in power, common opinion is that CarGo will not continue to be a 30+ home run hitter. Still, in 953 PAs with the Rockies he has hit 47 home runs—or one in every 20 plate appearances. His HR/FB rate was an elite 20.4 percent, so if you feel inclined to regress that down to around 16 percent, he would still hit around 27 home runs. And if he sacrifices average by hitting more flyballs, that number could easily jump above 30 again. It is impossible to predict large swings in home run totals given the data available, so while it is possible CarGo drops to 15 homers for the year or explodes to mash 40, the most reasonable estimate is still somewhere around 25. For someone who doesn't impress with his power first, a mid-20s total as a conservative estimate is commendable. Last year (yup, 2010 is last year already) the number of bags CarGo swiped was 26, a number that is likely to remain unchanged in 2011. Given his place in the heart of the Rockies lineup, his run and RBI totals should approach the 100 mark again. There is no question CarGo is an across the board producer and when everything clicks like it did in 2010, he can be the most valuable fantasy asset. The question is where are you willing to take this heralded free-swinger? CarGo seems destined to be a late-first round pick, which in many cases means taking him above more established players such as Robinson Cano or Ryan Braun. The easy stance to take is to let some other daydream believer in your league take him, then laugh when he spits out a .280 batting average with 20 homers and steals. Despite his (lack of) plate discipline, I enjoy believing he can continue to be a happy-go-lucky free-swinger who hacks his way to a high average and decent home run totals. Thinking rationally though, you are better off with David Wright or Carl Crawford more times than not. Posted by Paul Singman at 5:50am (1) Comments Friday, November 26, 2010Top 20 fantasy catchers for 2011Over the next two months, this series will present a top 20 list by position for the players who will be eligible at that position under Yahoo default standards. The rules of eligibility for Yahoo fantasy leagues: The following conditions apply to a player's position eligibility: ESPN imposes a more rigorous default position eligibility standard (e.g., 20 games played at the position last season, 10 games played in the present season), so you may have to do additional research if you play ESPN fantasy to verify that players listed in these articles are in fact "position eligible" in your league. These rankings are based on 5x5 standard Roto leagues. Rankings are not based on real life value, but fantasy value. Hence, guys like Juan Pierre will have value. Projections listed below are courtesy of Brian Cartwright's Oliver projection system. I recommend that you purchase a subscription, as the pre- and in-season updates are an invaluable fantasy tool. My rankings are not exclusively based on Oliver's projections, however. Rankings are primarily determined based on total production by category, balance in production, and scarcity of production. If you have any specific questions about my rankings, please post them in the comments. Here are my top 20 fantasy catchers for 2011: Rank Name Team Oliver Slash 2011** 1 Joe Mauer* Twins .331/.411/.493 2 Brian McCann Braves .279/.364/.481 3 Carlos Santana* Indians .267/.378/.479 4 Victor Martinez Tigers .278/.342/.426 5 Buster Posey Giants .300/.376/.480 6 Geovany Soto* Cubs .249/.348/.443 7 Kurt Suzuki* Athletics .261/.317/.392 8 Mike Napoli Rangers .257/.338/.507 9 Miguel Montero* Diamondbacks .265/.332/.431 10 Matt Wieters Orioles .272/.345/.419 11 Jorge Posada* Yankees .240/.324/.405 12 J.P. Arencibia Blue Jays .221/.261/.407 13 Russell Martin* Yankees .253/.353/.347 14 Chris Iannetta Rockies .229/.430/.434 15 Jesus Montero Yankees .289/.341/.509 16 Yadier Molina Cardinals .270/.335/.351 17 John Jaso Rays .259/.351/.375 18 Ryan Doumit* Pirates .253/.314/.403 19 Rod Barajas Dodgers .246/.287/.412 20 Carlos Ruiz Phillies .264/.355/.390*Assuming health, being tender a contract. **Oliver's 2011 projections have been updated since I wrote down all of the prospective slash lines for my hitter rankings. Due to the sheer volume of time it would take to update my positional rankings for hitters, I am going to keep the Oliver 2011 category listed as is. Most of the projections are essentially similar, but for the most up to date projections, subscribe to THT Forecasts by clicking here. If you are unsure of whether to subscribe to THT Forecasts, you can read about why I love THT Forecasts by clicking here Outside the top six, catchers are almost entirely fungible. Each either has a serious flaw (generally in the AVG/SB department, e.g. Napoli, Montero), has health/playing time concerns (e.g. Posada, Iannetta, Montero) or lacks some particularized value (e.g. Yadier Molina, A.J. Pierzynski, Jaso, et. al). On my blog Game Of Inches, I have routinely evoked a maxim that a not-top five catcher is not worth overpaying for (be patient) and that top five catchers are generally overrated, so avoid them accordingly. Considering that most teams like to rest their catchers at least two days a week, few catchers play even 130 games. In fact, only Briann McCann and Joe Mauer eclipsed 130 games in 2010. This limits any AVG value that a player will provide a team (cough cough Posey/Mauer cough cough) and generally caps even the best player's rate-stat totals (e.g. Soto, Napoli). Thus, it is hard to recommending drafting a catcher in the top five rounds, when the relatively rare five/four-category players are still on the table. Last year, Victor Martinez absolutely should not have been drafted over Nelson Cruz, but that's what happened in most leagues. The same theory applies to auction leagues. Do not pay that $3 premium for Miguel Montero when Mike Napoli and Matt Wieters are still on the board. In terms of the rankings, the names seem pretty straightforward. I wish I could rank Montero higher in the top 10, where he might end up in terms of end-of-season value, but his playing time is questionable and he is not a proven major league commodity. Remember that Wieters guy? Keep that in mind when someone in your league starts a bidding war over Montero. Catcher is a physically demanding position to play, and that alone can zap a player's health/skill (see Russell Martin). Some may wonder why I ranked Martinez ahead of Posey/below Santana (who will be that much more valuable in OBP leagues, by the way). Carlos Santana has more power potential in 2011 than Martinez (though V-mart will likely get more playing time cycling through DH/1B on some of his "days off") and similar batting average potential. Likewise, I ranked Buster Posey below Victor Martinez because I am concerned that much of Posey's 2010 power was a "fluke." A look at Posey's monthly splits reveals that his power bursts were largely limited to two months (July/September). In fact, his July power output was largely relegated to a five/six day span between the fifth and 10th of the month. I think Posey's .290+ AVG potential is certainly legit, but his power leaves me with questions and thus I give the advantage to V-mart's 20-homer power and RBI-potential batting around Miguel Cabrera. As a Geovany Soto proponent, I wish I could slot him in the top five based on increased projected playing time with "I love to tinker with my lineup Lou" Piniella no longer skippering the Cubs, but I am not that much of a homer. Soto is the final catcher with marginal value over "the remainder," however. Below him, I ranked the hitters from Kurt Suzuki through Matt Wieters on a tier of their own. After that tier, I would place Jorge Posada (injury issues) and J.P. Arencibia (wild card) in their own tier. Each has a some risk and moderate reward upside. After that, Chris Iannetta is probably the most talented remaining catcher, but it's really anyone's guess once the top 12 guys are off the board. Jesus Montero could be a great catcher option if given regular playing time, but with Posada, the newly minted Russell Martin, and Mark Teixeira already in the fold, where Montero would play regularly is anyone guess. This is why he is ranked so low. Neither Posada or Martin are poster children of health, however, so Montero could easily find himself in the Yankees lineup this year if, or should I say when, either goes to the DL. As always, leave your love/hate in the comments. Next week, we'll look at first base eligible players. Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 7:10am (33) Comments Monday, November 29, 2010Top 20 fantasy first basemen for 2011Other 2011 fantasy rankings by position: Catcher Welcome back everyone. I hope you enjoyed last week's fantasy rankings article. Before I present/justify this week's rankings (first basemen), I just want to remind everyone that these rankings are based on position eligibility. Hence, a Top Five catcher (e.g. Posey) with first base eligibility gets ranked based on his numbers in comparison to other first basemen. Accordingly, being low on one list and high on another just goes towards a player's economic value by position. Thus, as you might see below, it would be silly to pay high for Buster Posey to play 1B when you can spend less (or draft later) on a comparable/better hitter (e.g. Billy Butler). Position eligibility and evaluation criterion for the purposes of these rankings is explained here. And without further ado, 2011's top class of first basemen: Rank Name Team Oliver Slash (2011)** 1 Albert Pujols Cardinals .319/.423/.616 2 Miguel Cabrera Tigers .311/.389/.579 3 Adrian Gonzalez Padres .290/.391/.536 4 Joey Votto Reds .301/.395/.535 5 Prince Fielder Brewers .278/.391/.524 6 Ryan Howard Phillies .263/.342/.516 7 Mark Teixeira Yankees .275/.370/.496 8 Kevin Youkilis Red Sox .289/.384/.513 9 Justin Morneau* Twins .293/.375/.523 10 Adam Dunn White Sox .251/.369/.508 11 Kendry Morales* Angels .289/.335/.510 12 Carlos Pena Cubs .214/.336/.444 13 Billy Butler Royals .297/.365/.467 14 Lance Berkman* Cardinals .262/.374/.443 15 Paul Konerko White Sox .266/.345/.455 16 Buster Posey Giants .300/.376/.480 17 Luke Scott Orioles .252/.331/.454 18 Mike Napoli Angels .257/.338/.507 19 Ike Davis Mets .260/.335/.441 20 Aubrey Huff Giants .265/.339/.448*Assuming health (which means assuming the amount of health I expect from them), being tendered a contract. **Oliver's 2011 projections have been updated since I wrote down all of the prospective slash lines for my hitter rankings. Due to the sheer volume of time it would take to update my positional rankings for hitters, I am going to keep the Oliver 2011 category listed as is. Most of the projections are essentially similar, but for the most up to date projections, subscribe to THT Forecasts by clicking here. If you are unsure of whether to subscribe to THT Forecasts, you can read about why I love THT Forecasts by clicking here Before I go off and explain why each player is ranked where they are, I want to make a point about first basemen unequivocally clear. First base, as a position, is as deep as it gets in fantasy baseball. As I noted last year (click the link in the previous sentence), first base is the absolute worst expenditure of one's limited resources on draft day. Be it auction or snake draft, patience is a virtue. For example, before 2010 started, I noted that Paul Konerko was a strong top-20 value pick. I am not saying that I predicted Paul Konerko would have a career year. What I am saying is that first base has so many fungible/productive options, that paying a premium of $20+ for 10 extra home runs is better spent shoring up a scarce position like 2B or SS (especially in AL only formats). Now granted, I am a huge hypocrite. I paid $26 for Joey Votto last season in one money league and drafted Ryan Howard with my #2 pick (#13 overall) in another. Regardless, I would do what I say, not what I do. I only paid for Votto because I had a lot of faith in his production and because I could later flip him for a pitcher (granted, I did so by shorting myself for an underperforming Dan Haren). I got home run drunk with Ryan Howard and have no excuse for him in my other league other than I learned my lesson. In 2011, unless Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder come my way for $25 or less, I am waiting until people fill their first base holes before buying up a first base guy (though there is a theory that you can pounce early/cheap on first basemen in expert leagues, where such players often become so overvalued that they become undervalued). Let me drive home the point with a quote from my Game Of Inches article. "According to Roto Authority's [2010] estimates, you can win a 14-hitter, 12-team league by averaging a .282 BA, ~12 SB, ~83 R, ~80 RBO and ~21 HR output per hitter." In 2010, the average first baseman hit .263/.349/.451 with 25 HR, 85 R, 91 RBI and 3.5 SB. Get the point? 'Nuff said. Let's move on to the rankings themselves. The "big controversies" of my rankings here, at least in my mind, are Justin Morneau, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez and Kendry Morales. As anyone who knows me knows, I have "an irrational hatred" of both Morales and Morneau. The former has to do with my non-belief in his AVG or power production (I see him as a .280 hitting, 25 HR first baseman, not a reliable 30+/.300 kind of guy) and my distaste for the quality of the hitters who surround Morales in the Angels lineup (limited RBI upside). With respect to Morneau, I have never liked him. I think he is an overrated, overdrafted first basemen whose most notable accomplishments involve stealing an MVP award and Home Run derby from infinitely more deserving parties (e.g., Derek Jeter and specifically Josh Hamilton, respectively). Before an injury-stiffled 2010 (concussion, which is always quite worrisome), Morneau's career AVG sat at .277. That's decent, but it's hardly the .300+ AVG everyone seemingly expects from him year-in, year-out. Though I realize that Morneau is an annual "lock" for 30/100/100 when healthy, I just despise the fact that most of Morneau's value comes from Joe Mauer. He's the mooch of fantasy baseball, in my mind. Sure, he is probably better than I give him credit for, but again, this goes toward my "irrational hatred." I know that if I ever draft Morneau, like the only time I drafted a catcher (Joe Mauer) early (2008), he'll only do what I always say he will do: disappoint heavily. My ranking here can be justified by the type of injury (concussion) Morneau sustained, as such are lingering and teams are increasingly "taking it easy" with concust players. If you are a Morneau fan, I highly recommend you follow his health closely this offseason. With respect to Howard, I have a few lingering worries about his age and future production. Howard has been playing like the left-handed half of a platoon for several seasons now and he's only getting older. After hitting 45+ HR/136+ RBI for four straight seasons (with a 22 HR, 63 RBI half season in 2006), Howard barely eclipsed the 30 HR mark in 2010. Howard's 2010 ISO of .229, while still quality, was a career low. His ISO had been .292+ each of the past four seasons and had never been below .279 before 2010. Howard's walk rate (career low 9.5% in 2010) has also been on the decline for four or five years now. Granted, Howard was injured in 2010, but he still played 143 of his team's games. These are all worrisome signs (injuries, declining power/walk rates) for a 32 year old signed to a negligently large contract extension. Like the Dodgers with Manny Ramirez in 2008, the Phillies are likely to regret the contract they handed Howard last year. Still, in 2011, Howard should rebound some and be quite productive. I am expecting a .270 AVG, 38 HR and 120 RBI if healthy. You might also ask why Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder are so high on my list. With respect to A-Gon, I think he gets traded to the Red Sox by July, at which point he'll hit that many more home runs*. In rudimentary form a year ago, I analyzed at how Adrian Gonzalez's bat would play at Fenway over Petco Park. In hindsight, I realize the analysis is quite flawed, but the overarching point remains salient nonetheless. Whereas Petco Park suppressed home run production by almost 12 percent in 2010, Fenway bolstered such by a little over 8 percent. That huge swing in power numbers would easily launch Gonzalez into the top five by season's end, even if he plays half a season for the Padres. *UPDATE: Adrian Gonzalez has been traded to the Red Sox and his positional ranking has been adjusted accordingly. Fielder is also quite high on my list, despite a down 2010, for two reasons. First, this is Fielder's final season before he hits the open market. At age 26, Fielder is still quite young and though he'll only be 27, he has the physique of Bartolo Colon, even as a vegetarian (those black bean burgers really hate home runs, don't they?). If Scott Boras is going to convince a team to give Fielder Texeira/Howard/A-Gon money, he is going to need to prove he is still capable of big things to offset the worries that by the time he is 30, like his father, he will barely be able to trout around the bases on home run swings, let alone non-home run hits. Second, Prince Fielder seems to alternate power seasons. He hit 28 HR and .271 in his first major league season, but smacked 50 while hitting .288 in his sophomore year. Fielder followed 2007 up with a slightly disappointing 2008 (34 HR, .276 AVG), but returned to form in 2009 (.299 AVG, 46 HR). 2010 was likewise "poor" by comparison (32 HR, .261 AVG), but the gambler's fallacy compels me to hope for a rebound in 2011. In all seriousness, however, Fielder still hit 32 home runs in "the year of the pitcher," a mark only bettered by nine other players (Bautista, Pujols, Konerko, Cabrera, Dunn, Votto, Cargo, Uggla, and Teixeira). That's elite production and if you are going to pay big for a first baseman, Fielder may be the "value player" of the big boppers. As always, leave your love/hate in the comments. If you have any questions, I will be happy to answer them. Just keep in mind that even if you do not get a "top 20" first baseman, guys like Russell Branyan, Gaby Sanchez and Adam LaRoche (at least in the second half) could always prove to be useful options. First base is not a hard position to fill in fantasy (or real life, probably, though I am no General Manager) and one should economize accordingly. Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 3:17am (40) Comments Tuesday, November 30, 2010Deep sleepers, round 2This time around, we're getting fringier with the $1 options, profiling a pair of flame throwing pitchers who may or may not get an early call up in 2011, and a recently traded center fielder. Let's start with that latter character. Cameron Maybin: The Padres recently acquired Maybin for a pair of nice relievers, Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb. As Dave Cameron pointed out in response to the trade, the former Top 10 prospect's game has one serious hole, a career Major League strike out rate of 31.4%. For a gap power center fielder, that kind of strike out rate caps his potential at league average while limiting his fantasy potential to waiver wire spot starter. Dave Cameron also pointed out the reason why we're thinking about spending our last dollar on him—strike out rates below 20 percent in 490 AAA plate appearances over the past two seasons. Even with an improved strike out rate, Maybin doesn't figure to be terribly valuable in a 12-team fantasy setting. He should be assisted by playing about 99 games in Petco, Coors Field and Chavez Ravine. Spacious settings like those can be kind to players with Maybin's gap-power skill set. In leagues with a center field slot, Maybin is a useful back up option. Leagues without the center fielder designation will find less use for Maybin, but he can provide decent value if you play the match-ups. Average, home runs and RBI will be problem categories—but so long as he's only spot starting. He'll make up for his shortcomings by scoring runs and stealing bases. Jarrod Parker: The Diamondbacks' top prospect spent the majority of 2010 on the shelf, recovering from Tommy John surgery. What little time he did spend on the mound came in the instructional league, where scouts were impressed with his recovery and work ethic. Reports indicate that his stuff is close to pre-surgery form, making a call up in 2011 likely. The Diamondbacks are short on depth in the starting rotation behind Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy, and Joe Saunders making Parker's recovery from injury the only barrier to earning a regular turn. Scouting reports indicate that Parker has the potential to provide an ace-quality presence in Diamondbacks' rotation. He features a fastball that has reached as high as 98, a sharp slider and a developing change-up. As a fantasy asset, Parker could provide the full package. He has the ability to get plenty of strikeouts thanks to stuff that can overpower opposing hitters. He should also make fair contributions in ERA, WHIP and wins. He might prove prone to the occasional stinker. As Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein recently said, "Parker throws strikes, but at times too many, as he'll often groove pitches down the middle instead of working both sides of the plate." The other risk with Parker concerns the timing of his call-up. As long as he remains healthy and effective, an early June nod seems likely, though it's also quite possible Parker's debut gets pushed back to 2012. Even as a $1 investment, he could prove to be a bit of a reach in non-keeper formats. He's probably most useful in a roto league with a tight innings cap. The chance that he could break into the league and provide impact-level statistics makes him a more attractive investment than most other $1 pitchers. Michael Pineda: Seattle's top prospect is in line for plenty of Major League action in 2011. Like Parker, Pineda has spent his fair share of time on the trainer's table, although an entirely healthy 2010 leaves hope that the injury bug is in the rear-view mirror. Pineda flashed brilliant stuff last season in AA and AAA, striking out 154 over 139.1 innings while walking only 42. His fastball is his best pitch, occasionally reaching triple digits, while he also has a good slider and a developing change-up. He will compete for a rotation spot in spring training. Seattle lacks the depth to block Pineda, but they may find an excuse to start him in AAA—if only to push back his service clock. He should find his way onto the roster by mid-April. From a fantasy perspective, Pineda could wind up as a huge late-round selection. He's a guy who can rack up tons of strikeouts while limiting walks—and by extension—ERA and WHIP. Safeco and Seattle's focus on defense should prove helpful, too. Considering that Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez only managed 13 wins last season and the Seattle offense isn't expected to improve, there's a good chance Pineda won't be helpful in the win column. Right now Pineda is looking like a $1-5 investment. A few factors could change between now and draft day. First, it would not be surprising if Pineda starts catching some serious hype from prospect analysts and fantasy mavens. Thus far, the obscurity of Seattle and an injury shortened 2009 have conspired to keep him out of the limelight, but a dominant spring training outing or two could change that. The other factor is that low walk rate. Sometimes pitching prospects of Pineda's ilk spend too much time over the plate. This type of issue typically takes a few turns to adjust, so it's not a major concern—it's just something to keep in mind when setting your lineup in April. | ||||||
