THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Matt Hagen at 4:01am (3) Comments

Friday, January 28, 2011

Matt Cain sacrifices goats

Earlier this winter, The Hardball Times offered prospective fantasy baseball writers the opportunity to compete in a Hardball Times fantasy league. Entrants wrote fantasy baseball articles, the best of which would be chosen as our winner. While we could only choose one winner to play in the league (congratulations, Dave Chenok), we had so many great articles that we have decided to publish some of the best. This is one of those submissions.

What? You got a better idea? Just how would you describe a pitcher for whom “lucky” doesn’t even begin to capture his defiance of all laws of probability. Think I’m being hyperbolic* here? Well consider that of the 85 starting pitchers with at least 1,000 career innings pitched and who played since line drive and home run/fly ball percentages were recorded, Matt Cain's career ranking for liners is eighth lowest, while he is lower than everyone homers per fly ball.

That’s just the half of it, though: He is also the holder of the very lowest figure when it comes to batting average on balls in play and has the fifth highest left on base percentage of all of those same pitchers. In other words, the combined paucity of line drives allowed, balls in play that turned into hits, fly balls that became home runs, and baserunners who made it all the way home stands in open mockery of what we believed to be the unassailable truth that extremes will, sooner or later, regress to the mean. Hence the goat thing….

* (When I taught "hyperbole" in English class, I'd slam my fist and scream "I've told you a hundred thousand times what hyperbole means." Sadly, they didn't share my estimation of my cleverness.)

But I’m not saying that there is no such thing as unsustainable pitching luck … far from it. I’d be willing to bet that, since you’re spending your time reading saberist sites such as this one, we could look at the draft summaries from the leagues you just finished playing in and see strong pitchers you picked up for chump change because they just couldn’t catch a break on balls in play the year before; or, conversely, that you didn’t bite on the guy that everyone else thought had a real breakthrough last year because you knew he couldn’t possibly keep so many fly balls in the park again.

I, for one, must admit to the occasional look back at my auctioneering brilliance, though I should probably share with you three words that kind of put a damper on my celebrations of self: 1) ESPN. 2) 10-team. 3) Mixed. That is, if I sat down to draft against you all, instead, do you really think I alone would adjust my rankings to account for last year’s luck? Of course not … veering from the crowd’s ADP isn’t just something that the LABR guys do.

So what do you do when the low hanging fruit is no longer there? I suggest, in the great tradition of sabermetric thought, that you go against the crowd; that is, now that everyone knows to adjust for luck, don’t do it! Yep, my solution to everyone else getting smart is, er, to engage your inner Tim McCarver, say “xFIP who?” and look forward with anticipation to Felix Hernandez leading you to ERA nirvana.

That’s right, I’m betting Felix’s ’10 suggests a similar ’11 despite the fact that he wouldn’t have bagged a 2.27 ERA without such feats as limiting hitters to an absurdly low 16.3 line drive percentage, .273 BABIP and 8.5 HR/FB, as well as stranding an astounding 77.4 percent of his baserunners. And on what grounds? Nothing short of having good ol' great “stuff.”

I’m serious, actually, but it’s a little more complex than I just made it sound. I believe I have found a small, but very real, instance in which we can explain luck, paradoxical as that may sound. Specifically, we have in Felix’s statistical record the sabermetric evidence that Hernandez wields what a scout would call “plus” pitches, by which I mean that in the Pitch Value section of his Fangraphs player page he has thrown, in each of the last two years, both a fastball and a change-up that saved at least a full win of runs more than average (e.g. in '10 his wFB was 25.5, or worth 2.5 wins above average, while his wCH was 18.7). And it is with that specific arsenal that I believe (and have the numbers to back it up) a pitcher can control all those things we have come to believe he can’t.

His xFIP (which I’m using both because players are starting to rely on it when projecting next year’s performance, and because it is the one ERA variant that counts all four metrics discussed here as measures of luck) is, in its full point difference, very clear that we should expect a significant regression. Now, regressing from 2.27 can only be so bad, so I’m not saying that my hypothetical league rivals are going to rate him below a slew of others, but rather that you may be able to take him a good five or 10 bucks lower than those who downgrade his projections on the basis of his apparent luck, in turn making him the rare ace to justify his cost and maybe even then some.

(Just a quick look at the last couple of NL LABR drafts suggests that more "expert" players do indeed diverge from the crowd when there is strong evidence of luck at play. Those starting pitchers whom xFIP predicted would regress the most almost universally went cheaper in the following year’s LABR draft than would have been the equivalent cost of where they ended up on the general public's ADP).

Okay, I’ll finally get to the goods:

The odds that any given pitcher will end up among the top 10 “luckiest” according to BABIP (or one of the other three metrics) in any one year is about 12 percent. Of the nearly 700 qualifying starting pitcher seasons since the onset of batted ball data in 2002, there were 14 pitchers (before Felix in ’10) who had a dominant fastball/change-up combo. Sample size, I know, but just look at how extreme their numbers compare: 29 percent of the time such a pitcher is on the BABIP list, more than double average, and the same 29 percent goes for HR/FB. Impressive, but then there’s LD percentage, where they have a 43 percent chance. In left on base rate, the odds rise all the way to 50 percent.

Even when you compare those odds to pitcher seasons with any other combination of two “plus” pitches (of which there were 33), it’s not even close: Their odds, like the overall average, remain in the teens for all but LOB percentage, which occurred an impressive one-third of the time. (That in turn suggests that we should really be wary when using FIP and the like to project pitching studs, insofar as it appears elite pitchers do have an actual ability to strand more runners than others).

But that still means fastball/change-up pitchers are half-again as likely to rank at the top of the LOB list. As for commanding a single dominant pitch of any type, there is zero evidence of any significant impact on these metrics (too bad for my hopes to eventually explain Cain via his sick fastball).

Probably the starkest difference was the huge influence the FB/CH group had on line drive percentager, while even those with other plus-pitch combos didn’t shift the odds an inch. (You might think, then, that tERA would be the way to go, but remember, we’re talking about just a tiny fraction of all starting pitchers, so in most cases you actually wouldn’t want to consider batted balls a skill as that metric does.)

Why should this matter to you? To put it in the clearest fantasy baseball terms,line driveLD percentage influences your ratio categories in a significant way. Felix, for example, with a LD percentage three full points below average, lowered his ERA by .2 through that form of control alone. (I’ve gone on way too long to add in all the calculations here, but you can replicate them easily using standard linear weights).

Of course, none of this would matter were it not for the fact that these players' performances the next year continued to defy advanced RA metrics' predictions: A majority of the "lucky" FB/CHers had, on average, a following year ERA lower than xFIP predicted by an average of a half-point.

Ultimately, this is just one small way to get an edge on your opposition, but in an age when so much advanced data is freely available to all, knowing any way to play this knowledge against your league mates can only help. And there are surely other occasions in which to employ this angle; Clay Buchholz, for example, is the 32nd starter drafted at Mock Draft Central— going that late largely because of the appearance of massive luck last year—but if this 26-year-old can improve his change-up only slightly (2010 wCH: 7.7) and maintain anything near the quality of last year's fastball (20.8 wFB), he just may reward his owners by delivering crazy low ratios for a second year in a row at a very, very nice price.

In the end, it's just classic saberist thinking, no? When others zig, you zag, and then when they learn that they should have been zagging, you gotta find a way to zig to your advantage.

Posted by Will Hatheway at 3:26am (11) Comments

Breaking down the mock draft: rounds 4-6

On Sunday, Jan. 16, 12 baseball analysts from around the web mock snake-drafted fantasy baseball team for 2011.

They assumed 25-player rosters, using the standard 5x5 categories and a 1,500 innings-pitched limit. Using Mock Draft Central, teams were constructed with three starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, four "generic" pitchers (starter or reliever), three bench players, five outfielders and one of each of catcher, first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, middle infielder and corner infielder.

We have broken this draft into four parts—rounds 1-6, 7-12, 13-19 and 20-25—and over the next four weeks, each of the participants to the draft will provide insight into each of their picks. All preseason projections below are courtesy of the Bill James projections available on Fangraphs.com. Please post comments below.

Other round analysis: Rounds 1-3

Round 4

Pick No. 1 (37 overall): Felix Hernandez
Preseason projection: 13 W, 3.31 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 204 K, 223 IP
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys

I got the AL MVP with my first pick, and now I have the AL Cy Young winner as well. Hernandez had a ridiculous season, posting a 2.27 ERA and an 8.36 K/9 ratio over 249.2 innings despite a higher HR/FB percentage. His improvement over the years couldn’t be more regular if you dumped a bottle of Metamucil on it, with his K-rate, BB-rate, fastball velocity, and ERA all plummeting over the past three to four years and his FIP and xFIP following suit. If the Mariners could field anything better than a Little League-quality offense he would have fared much better than the 13-12 record he managed despite the lowest run support of any pitcher in the majors.

It would be insane to expect him to continue on this trend and a small regression is probably coming, but King Felix is still one of the elite pitching talents in the league and a safe bet for 200 strikeouts, making him an ideal ace for your staff.

Pick No. 2 (38 overall) Ichiro Suzuki
Preseason projection: .316 AVG, 7 HR, 30 SB, 87 R, 47 RBI, 708 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

In the early fourth round, Ichiro was placed onto my team, and overall it is a solid pick. Since he is 37, it is scary to own Ichiro, but so far he has proven himself the "freak-of-nature" type that defy normal aging rules. I tend to reserve outfield for sleepers so I probably would not want to fill my second outfield slot this early in the draft and instead take Dan Uggla or maybe Adrian Beltre (who I got two rounds later).

But in terms of outfielders,if you look at the two taken before him (Matt Kemp and Nelson Cruz) and after (Andre Ethier and Justin Upton), all have more question marks than Ichiro. So if nothing else, it's a safe pick.

Pick No. 3 (39 overall): Dan Uggla
Preseason projection: .263 AVG, 31 HR, 3 SB, 96 R, 94 RBI, 666 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

Come on, I know he won't have that batting average again. Though second base is deeper than many believe, I didn't mind simultaneously adding to my power base and filling my infield. Uggla has performed well in his small Turner Field sample size, and the Bravos should have a positive impact on his already growing BB/K‐the Marlins hacked and hacked and hacked.

Pick No. 4 (40 overall): Derek Jeter
Preseason projection: .295 AVG, 13 HR, 17 SB, 101 R, 68 RBI, 703 PA
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

In the three years I have been publicly writing about baseball, it is rare I do not mention how shallow shortstop is. Especially in the post-steroid era, where teams are refocusing on athleticism and defense is in vogue, the offensively capable shortstop is a dying breed. To illustrate this point, check out my top 20 fantasy shortstop rankings for 2011. My sixth highest ranked shortstop, Jimmy Rollins, is projected by Oliver to hit only .239 by Oliver, and Mike Aviles, the last shortstop likely to not hurt you in the batting average category (ranked No. 12), is expected to barely crack the 10/10 plateau.

Accordingly, it was either take Jeter or Alexei Ramirez (who I correctly expected would not make it back around to me) now or be miserable with my draft and hope I nab Elvis Andrus or Starlin Castro as my primary shortstop.

Unwilling to live with the latter, I nabbed Jeter, who I think will rebound some in 2011. Although he’s old and overpaid at this point in his career, Jeter is still a somewhat fleet-footed (5.5 speed score last season), .290/10/20 capable shortstop. Oliver expects a batting average around .280, but Jeter’s 2010 xBABIP pegs him capable of a .299 batting average. Though Jeter likely won’t repeat 2009, something akin to what he did in 1997 (.291 batting average, 10 home runs, 23 stolen bases, 116 runs, 79 RBI) is not implausible because Jeter just doesn’t hit pop-ups and still plays atop one of baseball’s most potent offensive lineups.

Pick No. 5 (41 overall): Buster Posey
Preseason projection: .308 AVG, 21 HR, 1 SB, 74 R, 83 RBI, 557 PA
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

I debated between him and Justin Upton, who slipped into the fourth round. Posey may have a year like Upton did last year, but the difference is in the position scarcity. I’m not a scarcity freak, but when comparing two players you have interest in, scarcity can usually end an argument. Posey struck out only 55 times in his first major league season, so an average around .300 is certainly attainable again. He’s comparable to Brian McCann, but at this point in his career has upside in his favor. The ballpark he plays in and the lineup surrounding him will always hinder his counting numbers. At a weak position, he was worth taking when I wasn’t in love with anyone else at this juncture.

Pick No. 66 (42 overall): Andre Ethier
Preseason projection: .288 AVG, 24 HR, 3 SB, 86 R, 90 RBI, 644 PA
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times

This was my favorite pick of the first four rounds. I am an Ethier fan for this year. His 2010 season could have played out so much different if he wasn’t playing the majority of it injured. Prior to that injury he was hitting .392 with 11 homers. He’s a legit value in the fourth round. I will guarantee that a .300/30/100 season is here (health permitting).

Pick No. 7 (43 overall): Jon Lester
Preseason projection: 204 IP, 14 W, 3.53 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 193 K
Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

If you are a big believer in the Bill James projection listed above, then this pick was silly. If you're a sane, rational human being, then this pick was gold (gold, Jerry!). Lester has racked up at least 200 innings in each of the past three seasons, never winning fewer than 15 games. The Red Sox are stacked this year, so a 20-win season isn't completely out of the question. Lester also strikes out more than a batter an inning while posting above-average ground ball rates. It's hard not to like Lester this year, and he's the No. 2 two pitcher on my board.

Pick No. 8 (44 overall): Justin Upton
Preseason projection: .288 AVG, 26 HR, 23 SB, 92 R, 96 RBI, 632 PA
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, winner of The Hardball Times "Compete Against the Experts" fantasy league competition

So much for Justin Morneau falling to me this round. I was a little sad to see Uggla go, as I need a second baseman and I could have used some more homers. I still need that bopper first baseman, and I am beginning to realize that unless I make a play for Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko or Kendry Morales I may end up with Adam LaRoche.

But I’m also noticing that in this league I am going to be drafting ive outfielders, and the better ones are going off the board quickly, so I need to lay a claim—there will be a serviceable first baseman, I’m sure, even if it is Gaby Sanchez, and I can make up for one position with strength at all the others. I’m torn between Upton and Andrew McCutchen. I like them both. I think McCutchen is actually safer, but Upton has more upside and the potential for a more balanced line. (I just took Jose Reyes; do I need another leadoff type guy this early?) So I go with Upton, knowing that if he and his brother spent time over the winter studying and working out with one another they may both strike out 200 times next year.

Pick No. 9 (45 overall) Alex Rios
Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 18 HR, 25 SB, 81 R, 77 RBI, 607 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game Of Inches

I had Rios in a net stolen bases league least year, and he killed me with inefficient baserunning. Luckily, I was not mock drafting in a net stolen bases league. The guy steals, hits home runs, is on my favorite team, and should be rock solid again. I looked around for some great power/speed combo guys with high batting averages and Rios fit the bill. While it does scare me that he could have a down "Alex Rios" year like he did his last year in Toronto, I don't think he will.

Now, after drafting Justin Upton in the second round last year, I should be averse to the power/speed outfielders ranked in the top 10. It seems to me that those guys tend to fluctuate between being studs and being just above average (as 2010 Upton and Matt Kemp owners can tell you). But Rios still plays for a stolen base-happy Ozzie Guillen, he still has a wonderfully homer-friendly home ball park, and he still looks good.

Pick No. 10 (46 overall): Ubaldo Jimenez
Preseason projection: 14 W, 3.63 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 194 K, 216 IP
Drafted by: Ray Flores Fantasy Baseball Cafe

I'll admit to drafting this pick based off Mock Draft Central's rankings. Jimenez was the highest ranked player on the board and, as is my tendency, I give at most five seconds to make a pick. In hindsight, Adam Wainwright would have been the better pick, but I would attribute this to offseason rust instead of my personal scrolling issues with the Mock Draft Central player interface.

Regardless, I was intent on taking an ace pitcher, as I felt that at that point of the draft, the quality of starting pitchers outweighed that of the batters (aside from McCutchen and Jason Heyward). Although Jimenez was a tad lucky in the first half of the year, he's still a bona fide stud. And although Jimenez's groundball rate decreased and his walk rate increased a touch, his K/9 took a step in the right direction and he was averaging a fastball velocity of 96 mph. With room for improvement, the Rockies ace should have a banner year in 2011.

Pick No. 11 (47 overall): Carlos Santana
Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 22 HR, 7 SB, 83 R, 91 RBI, 616 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

Santana was a slam dunk selection for me at the end of the fourth round. Since he was coming cheaper than more proven commodities (and rightfully so) Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez and Brian McCann, I was happy to pick up a catcher capable of putting up numbers that may rival the elite established stars, while not paying the premium price for a position that is noteworthy for the risk of injury.

Unfortunately, Santana provides evidence of that risk of injury, missing the end of last season with a knee injury suffered in a collision at home plate. Fortunately for Santana, he suffered no structural damage, just a nasty sprain, that according to reports is healed sufficiently enough to allow him to resume baseball activities. Being that Santana is already one of the most talented Cleveland hitters, he'll likely that he'll see ample playing time at DH and/or first base on days he's not behind the plate. Those who look at Santana's 2010 stats and assume he's a typical low average slugger are mistaken. With 500 or more plate appearances, I expect, Santana will top 20 home runs and 170 runs plus RBI and hit for an average greater than .275, making for truly spectacular contributions from a position that's not noted for production.

Pick No. 12 (48 overall): Yovani Gallardo
Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 207 K, 190 IP
Drafted by: Vince Caramela -- The Hardball Times

During this phase of the draft I will admit to being on my third glass of wine and already bragging (via standard draft chat) to my colleagues about my incredible sense of evaluating pitchers last season, when I targeted both Felix Hernandez and Ubaldo Jimenez on all my teams. (No one seemed too impressed). This season I decided to unveil my latest find: Yovani Gallardo! (What? You've all heard of him? Never mind.)

At this moment I feared that a healthy run of very good starting pitchers would be taken and I felt it was a good time to grab one. I gambled in this spot taking Gallardo and his high-ish walk rate over the likes of Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, Zack Greinke, Josh Johnson and Mat Latos.

In my defense, something about Latos' 2010 usage has me worried, I am expecting him to be elite but I do expect him to struggle a bit since his innings rose from 123 in '09 to over 184 last season. Chances are good for a hangover effect and I didn't want to chance that with my No. 1 starter. Greinke is solid and the move to the NL will help but I like to think that the Royals may be messing with Zack's fragile mind by shipping their slow-footed shortstop, Yuniesky Betancourt along to Milwaukee to further frustrate him. Regarding Lee, Johnson and Wainwright, taking Gallardo over them is tough to defend. I'm sure many of my comrades had them ranked ahead of Gallardo and it was possible I could have gotten him on the bounce-back but I do love the high K rate that Yovani offers and I do expect him to make a significant jump this season. Stubborn pick.

Round 5

Pick No. 1 (49 overall): Geovany Soto
Preseason projection: .276 AVG, 20 HR, 0 SB, 56 R, 72 RBI, 500 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times

This was a panic pick, pure and simple. Before my turn, Carlos Santana (the object of my affections) was selected and suddenly the catcher position looked very bare. I understand Soto had some problems when Lou Piniella was the Cubs manager last season and I'm sure new manager Mike Quade will come to his senses and give the man the proper amount of playing time. It's funny, immediately after I drafted Soto I asked everyone if I pulled too early and it was pretty unanimous that I did; but I figured that Soto was the last of solid-tier catchers available and I didn't want to get stuck gambling on Matt Wieters or Russell Martin as my main backstop.

Pick No. 2 (50 overall) Alexei Ramirez
Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 18 HR, 12 SB, 80 R, 78 RBI, 614 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

At the time of the pick, I wasn't a huge fan of it, and in retrospect, I'm still not thrilled with it. While I like Ramirez, and felt it necessary to get both of my middle infield positions locked up early so I'd have flexibility drafting one late to fill the actual MI spot, guys like Stephen Drew, Rafael Furcal and Starlin Castro were available a little later than I expected them to be. Still, looking at the positives, Ramirez has a solid track record that includes a career .283 average, upper teen to low 20s home run power, and low teens stolen base speed while compiling useful run and RBI totals. If I had to do it over again, I probably would have gone a different direction, but Ramirez' across the board contributions helped me avoid drafting the dreaded one trick pony speedsters and others of that ilk later.

Pick No. 3 (51 overall): Cliff Lee
Preseason Projection: 14 W, 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, p169 K, 216 IP
Drafted by: Ray Flors Fantasy Baseball Cafe

Once again, I let MDC's rankings have an effect on my drafting and took Cliff Lee (who was top of the rankings) with no hesitation. While one shouldn't be totally reliant on WHIP as a factor for drafting pitchers, Lee was extremely stingy in allowing baserunners last year with an ultra-svelte 1.00 WHIP (which includes a 1.05 WHHP while with the Rangers) The move back to the Phillies is an exciting one for fantasy owners too, as the former AL Cy Young winner posted a solid 3.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 74 strikeouts in 79 innings in his first short regular season stint with Philly.

To some degree, Lee is like getting a bargain Roy Halladay: an ace capable of throwing 220+ innings, 190-200 strikeouts by volume of throwing more innings, and excellent ratios. Again, on a normal day, Wainwright would have edged Lee here as my pick, but getting Lee is no terrible oversight, especially as late as the early fifth round. Alternatively, I was tempted to take Jason Heyward or Andrew McCutchen, but as is my custom with my first draft, I let the players I'd like to target in drafts go, just to see how long they'll last on the board.

Pick #4 (52 Overall) Jason Heyward
Preseason projection: .295 AVG, 22 HR, 13 SB, 101 R, 88 RBI, 677 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game Of Inches

While I think Heyward is over-hyped and he probably won't end up on any of my real teams, I think I have a disdain toward him because EVERYONE seems to love him. For those of you who play fantasy football, Heyward seems like Ryan Mathews—a guy who is young but seems to be a consensus top guy. These guys scare me. If Heyward has done this for years then I'd be more then delighted with this pick. But something seems off about this and I feel he's poised for a sophomore slump.

I'd rather have my "feeling" be proved wrong and be told "I told you so" than believe the hype (something Public Enemy told me not to do) and have a crappy player on my team.

I promise you I'm a "stats guy," but all I had to go off of was Mr. Gross' rankings and my gut feeling
—which is terrible whether it's coming from me or Joe Morgan. But as much as you should rely on statistics, don't overlook "your guys" or your gut feelings. You could have looked at Austin Jackson's BABIP all of last year and sold high, and yet he still ended up with a batting average over .300. I know I might be burned at the stake for saying this on THT, but god forbid you don't rely 100 percent on statistics.

Pick No. 5 (53 overall): Adam Wainwright
Preseason projection: 18 W, 2.81 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K, 229 IP
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, winner of The Hardball Times "Compete Against the Experts" fantasy league competition

I almost always draft a starting pitcher in Round five—I want at least one ace to anchor my staff. I watch some of the people drafted earlier in the round—Tier 2 position players—and feel good about my “position scarcity” strategy in the first four rounds; other people are worried about winding up with Yunel Escobar, and I can play for the best pitcher on the board.

And I am shocked that Wainwright is available. He is arguably the second or third best starter in all of baseball. Look at his peripherals from last year—a 1.05 WHIP—-and he pitches for a good-hitting team. He’s a lock to win 16+ games, and he’s never had serious arm trouble. I can’t quite believe that Gallardo (an enigma), Jiminez (inconsistent second half), Cliff Lee (great, but his numbers will take a hit in Philly), and Jon Lester (a very nice pitcher, but no Wainwright) have all been taken before Wainwright. I grab him, feeling like I just found a $20 bill lying on the street.

Pick No. 6 (54 overall): Mat Latos
Preseason projection: 193 IP, 14 W, 3.26 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 185 K
Drafted by: Zach Sanders,- Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

After perusing the board and realizing I still wasn't excited about any of the players remaining, I decided to take a second starting pitcher. Unless someone's projections are entirely too optimistic, it's rare to see an owner get two of his top six starters in the fourth and fifth rounds. But that's just what I did. Latos has great stuff, plays in a great park, and will still be only 23 years old when the season begins. Plus, Latos should be allowed to pitch more innings this year after the Padres hampered his total last season.

Pick No. 7 (55 overall): Jose Bautista
Preseason projection: .251 AVG, 34 HR, 7 SB, 88 R, 90 RBI, 614 PA
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times

Bautista is getting no love from anyone. I’ll stand alone on the shoulders of this guy. Read my post “Who’s your Jose?.” Then take a look at his stats and sabermetrics. Now tell me why I shouldn’t draft him to be my third baseman. If your reasoning is that he’s never done it before or he doesn’t spray the ball around, you are only trying to justify some reason to not believe. I’ll spend a fifth round pick to show I believe.

Pick No. 8 (56 overall): Kendry Morales
Preseason projection: .296 AVG, 27 HR, 1 SB, 75 R, 95 RBI, 580 PA
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

The decision was whether to take one of the few remaining reliable power sources in Morales and Dunn or to take McCutchen. In the end, I felt that power is harder to come by and that Morales’ batting average puts him ahead of Dunn’s extra few homers. I love McCutchen, and who doesn’t, but with Carl Crawford and David Wright already on board, it was more important to get the power while I could. Morales smacked 34 homers two years ago and drove in over 100 runs while batting over .300. He was on pace to produce similar numbers last year until his walk-off grand slam celebration went awry. I foresee more round-trippers from the Angels’ cleanup hitter this year and unlike many other first baseman, his .300 average is a big plus.

Pick No. 9 (57 overall): Josh Johnson
Preseason projection: 11 W, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 174 K, 189 IP
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

Although most analysts like to point out that quality starting pitching is deep in fantasy baseball—I myself am enamored with most of the top 50 ranked pitchers on my top 100 starting pitchers list—I do not like to gamble half of my 5x5 production. Rather than pick up starters last and patch together a starting staff or work the stream strategy, I prefer to draft two or three stud pitchers with good ratios and strikeout production early. Doing this gives me piece of mind because not only do I have an elite player, but such players enable me to take late-draft starting pitcher risks without having to worry about completely decimating my ratios or having to waste roster space on elite relievers. More importantly, elite starting pitchers get lots of innings, and lots of innings of good ratios allows you to draft an army of bottom-tier closers who pitch fewer innings of poor ratio baseball while racking up saves totals without hurting your bottom line.

I have Josh Johnson ranked as the fifth best fantasy starting pitcher for 2011. I was targeting Jason Heyward, who I expect to hit .300/30/15/100/100 in 2011, in this round, but those plans fell apart early in round five. With Adam Wainwright drafted and my fellow drafters already pulling lower ranked starters on my list, like Ubaldo Jimenez, Cliff Lee and Yovanni Gallardo, I felt it essential to pounce on Johnson to ace my staff. I expect Johnson to outperform Bill James’ K/9 and innings pitched totals in 2011.

Pick No. 10 (58 overall): Andrew McCutchen
Preseason Projection: .287 AVG, 16 HR, 33 SB, 99 R, 63 RBI, 662 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

Pleasantly surprised. I wait on outfielders in these formats, and I don't mind having this five-category stud with an impact stolen base contribution as a complement to my pop. His batting average is on its way up to .300, thanks to boosts in BB/K and contact rate. The Bucs' lineup will probably limit his runs total, but his legs can make up for the difference there.

Pick No. 11 (59 Overall) CC Sabathia
Preseason projection: 18 W, 3.32 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 202 K, 236 IP
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

I am embarrassed to admit this is the first pick I actually made in this draft since he is not a pitcher I am particularly fond of. I was hoping McCutchen would fall to me, and in the wake of him being snatched up one pick before mine, I picked Sabathia in disgust. He is, admittedly, a true workhorse and despite his non-elite strikeout rate, he does post near-elite strikeout totals given the sheer number of innings he pitches.

However his strikeout and walk rates have been trending the wrong way for the last three years and it will take handful of luck for Sabathia to post a low threes ERA again. Clayton Kershaw and Mat Latos are likely to post better numbers, though Sabathia's durability does make him not a bad pick in this spot.

Pick No. 12 (60 overall): Clayton Kershaw
Preseason projection: 14 W, 3.13 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 221 K, 213 IP
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys

I don’t like to take two pitchers in a row this early, but there’s an odd bubble of pitchers in the ADP rankings around this area and I couldn’t pass on one of my favorite young guns in Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers ace collected 212 strikeouts over 204.1 innings while his walk rate plummeted from 4.8 to 3.6 per nine innings. This vast improvement in his K/BB ratio along with a drop in WHIP for the third year in a row led to a second consecutive sub-3 ERA season despite a rise in BABIP and HR/FB percentage. Oh, and did I mention he was only 22 last year? Any concerns of a falloff from the young arm as the season progressed were proven ridiculous Not only did he lower his ERA and K/BB ratio in the second half, he threw his first career complete game shutout in his third-to-last start against the eventual World Champion San Francisco Giants. Considering his age, there’s a chance we haven’t even seen this electric fireballer’s ceiling yet.

Round 6

Pick No. 1 (61 overall): Elvis Andrus
Preseason projection: .274 AVG, 2 HR, 34 SB, 82 R, 43 RBI, 586 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini -- Bruno Boys

I’m not sure I like taking Andrus this early, but considering my draft slot, the scarcity of the position and my severe lack of stolen bases up to this point I snagged him. The Texas Rangers shortstop had a disappointing sophomore season, batting .265 with zero home runs (though he’s not exactly a power threat anyway) and a poor 68 percent success rate on the base paths. The only real sign of hope was a much improved walk-rate of 9.5 percent and he showed a level of patience at the plate that is uncommon for a 22-year-old. Considering his age there’s no doubt he’ll show some improvement this season. It’s just a matter of how much and whether he’ll justify his top-six ADP rank among shortstops. More success on the base paths and trust from the coaching staff will be the key.

Pick No. 2 (62 Overall) Adrian Beltre
Preseason projection: .283 AVG, 24 HR, 5 SB
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

I was very happy to land Beltre at this point in the draft; after the elite third baseman are off the board, Beltre provides great value in the fifth or sixth round. In Arlington, Beltre should post good power numbers and he's shown he is capable of monster seasons. The third basemen taken after him are Michael Young, Pedro Alvarez, Aramis Ramirez and Casey McGehee. In my opinion Beltre is a definite tier above these guys, and Beltre in round six is much less a reach than one of them in rounds seven or eight.

Pick No. 3 (63 overall): Justin Verlander
Preseason projection: 15 W, 3.46 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 209 K, 226 IP
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

As planned, there were plenty of stable, K-happy aces available after I built up my offense. The innings are piling up, but he manages his game well in conserving velocity, both during games and throughout the season. He's a little streaky, but he eats frames and provides dominant starts.

Pick No. 4 (64 overall): Dan Haren
Preseason Projection: 15 W, 3.52 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 209 K, 238 IP
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

Though it was a close decision between Haren and Zack Greinke with my sixth round pick, I sided with the former because of his record of success in the AL, history of heath, and all-around career success. Though Greinke could be better than Haren in 2011, Haren has less “down” years to his name and the indisputably better numbers over the past three seasons. Not convinced? In the history of baseball, only four pitchers who pitched 1,000 or more innings in their career have posted a higher K/BB ratio than Dan Haren's 3.86 career mark: Tommy Bond (4.44), Curt Schilling (4.38), Pedro Martinez (4.15), and Mariano Rivera (4.15).

Haren is an indisputable WHIP machine with clear strikeout and ERA upside which make him an elite No. 1 starting pitcher, let alone a superior No. 2 for my team. I expect Haren, like Josh Johnson, to outperform what Bill James expects. Then again, maybe I am just trying to justify my frustration in not getting Beltre.

Pick No. 5 (65 overall): Jacoby Ellsbury
Preseason projection: 300 AVG, 8 HR, 59 SB, 102 R, 58 RBI
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

Not only will it be fun (in my imaginary mock team) to have both Ellsbury and Crawford, but why he slips so far is something I don’t understand. Sure, he was injured for most of 2010, like Morales and Morneau (I think we’re onto something here), but he’s expected back healthy this year. Plucking the value is something hard for me not to do in drafts. A healthy Ellsbury can put up Crawford-like numbers and if they bat 1-2 in that Red Sox lineup, both could score over 100 runs. I believe at this point in the draft, with Ellsbury, Crawford and Wright, I may have locked up the stolen base category. I expect Ellsbury to hit .300, score 100 runs, hit about 15 homers and drive in about 70 runs. Anything above 40 steals will suffice.

Pick No. 6 (66 overall): Zack Greinke
Preseason projection: 14 W, 3.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 193 K, 222 IP
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times

To this point I haven’t really thrown my laptop. Well, until this pick. Jacoby Ellsbury was in my pre-pick queue when Brett Greenfield stole him from me. Disheveled and reeling, I decided to grab a pitcher out of the amazing talent that still remained available. I was enticed only by Greinke, Tommy Hanson and David Price. I choose Greinke because I think he could have great success pitching in the National League for a team I really like to be successful as well. He’s 27 and he’s still a great groundball pitcher. My only concern is the dominance regression. This pick is more of a gut call than anything I can back with statistics.

Pick No. 7 (67 overall): Hunter Pence
Preseason projection: .285 AVG, 26 HR, 16 SB, 87 R, 90 RBI, 660 PA
Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

Like my Holliday pick earlier in the draft, Pence was just too good a value to pass up at this point. The Astros outfielder fills up the stat sheet, and has been a virtual model of consistency over the past few seasons. You can count on Pence to deliver 25 home runs, a batting average over .280, and good counting stats to go with double-digit steals. While he may not be in a great lineup at the moment, he should still put up enough numbers to be a solid No. 2 outfielder.

Pick No. 8 (68 overall): Adam Dunn
Preseason projection: .257 AVG, 42 HR, 1 SB, 100 R, 120 RBI, 667 PA
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, winner of The Hardball Times "Compete Against the Experts" fantasy league competition

I like to say that the real draft starts with Round 6. In the first five rounds, the players who get picked are pretty predictable, and it’s just a matter of how they fall out—someone can get injured, but in good leagues you don’t see dumb picks. Round 6 is where it starts to get interesting; the positions you (and everyone else) ended up with in Rounds 1-5 dictate your Rounds 6-10 picks, and it starts to be possible to make a mistake because ADP becomes influenced by reputation rather than ability (e.g., how old IS Torii Hunter?).

I’m running out of opportunities for that bopper first baseman I had wanted, and notice the projected power stats in my lineup thus far could be a problem downstream—there are few real home run types left. I had hoped to grab Kendry Morales—not a guaranteed bopper, but some upside and not a category killer—but he was taken the prior round. I don’t believe in Carlos Pena, especially not in a new league where he doesn’t know the pitchers well. I figure my choices are down to Paul Konerko—whose career year last year was preceded by a real stinker of a year in 2009, and who is about to turn 35—and Adam Dunn.

I have never taken Dunn in a fantasy draft (real or mock), and I may never do it again. I think the .257 projected average is probably optimistic—Dunn could just as easily hit .230. But I figure I am guaranteed power production with Dunn, and that he’s likely to hit even better in the strong White Sox lineup than in the Nationals’. Besides, he’s now going to be hitting in the AL Central, a weaker (as I see it) pitching division, especially with Greinke now in Milwaukee. And Dunn will no longer lose homers playing a bunch of games at CitiField. I sure wish I could have had Ryan Zimmerman and Prince Fielder, but that’s not how the world works (at least not in a snake draft). So I hold my nose and take Dunn.

By the way, the Dunn pick, I believe, shows the importance of drafting balance in the first few rounds. By taking Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Zimmerman, I establish a hitting base that allows me to draft a specialist like Dunn without getting killed in one category. If I take Mark Teixeira or Ryan Howard early, I don’t have that luxury.

Pick No. 9 (69 Overall) Chris Carpenter
Preseason projection: 18 W, 3.06 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 183 K, 235 IP
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game Of Inches

At this point, I drafted another pitcher for two reasons. (1) At the key positions I needed at this point in the draft (i.e., middle infield) I was not impressed with who I could draft so I figured I could wait a few more rounds and not reach here and (2) I'm a big believer in having two elite pitchers by the time the sixth round is over. Carpenter (who was the best pitcher left and one of the last of the elites) along with Roy Halladay could anchor my pitching staff.

Pick No. 10 (70 overall): B.J. Upton
Preseason projection: .255 AVG, 16 HR, 40 SB, 87 R, 63 RBI, 606 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores Fantasy Baseball Cafe

After passing on McCutchen, I was hoping for a stolen base threat and was aiming for Ellsbury, but alas was thwarted. I'm one of those eternal optimists with B.J. Upton, who is just coming to realize he won't likely rekindle his 2007 form with 40+ steals on the side. Pick 70 seemed like an opportune time to gamble on Upton raising his average along with his usual steals and middling 15-20 homer power. Given that I had Miguel Cabrera and a few average boosters in the later rounds, it seemed like I had the team to stomach Upton's batting average liability.

Pick No. 11 (71 overall): Cole Hamels
Preseason projection: 15 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 219 IP
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

After spending my first five picks on hitters, it was time to finally nab the de facto ace of my staff. The pick came down to Hamels or Francisco Liriano, and was really a coin flip for me. If I were to do it again, I may go Liriano, but there was a lot I liked about Hamels, and the first difference was league. As is well documented, it is favorable to pitch in the National League as opposed to the American League. Also working in his favor was the fact he didn't post a 4.55 xFIP and 5.80 ERA in 2009 like Liriano had.

Looking at Hamels' stats, I was surprised to see both a significant jump in K/9 (9.10 in 2010 as opposed to 7.81 in 2009) and a spike in groundball percentage (45.4 rate in 2010 compared to a 40.4 mark in 2009), an unusual, but favorable combination. Just a quick and dirty projection for Hamels would suggest a safe bet of a mid-3.00s ERA with 185-plus strikeouts and a WHIP under 1.20 and the upside of him duplicating his 2010 stat line. Those numbers put me lagging behind owners who spent higher picks on their aces, but at a certain point I had to pluck a staff anchor, and I came into the draft with the intentions of drafting multiple high strikeout pitchers in the mid-rounds to minimize the risk of spending a higher pick on an elite ace and backing him with some lesser starters.

Pick No. 12 (72 overall): David Price
Preseason projection: 14 W, 3.57 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 191 K, 217 IP
Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times

I know a few picks ago I talked about avoiding Mat Latos due to Pitcher Abuse Points, and then I select David Price, who seems to be a popular candidate for regression in '11. Last season, Price saw an innings jump of nearly 50 innings, but I figured I would take the risk for my second staring pitcher. (If Latos had been available here, obviously I would have selected him as my second starter, but that's life in mock draft city). Maybe I'm reading too much in his last season's ERA (another fantasy no-no) but I believe in Price and find him improving with each start. It is curious that he has seemed to have abandoned his slider but his two-seamer has been quite successful in inducing more ground balls and keeping his previously high home run rates down a smidge.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:36am (24) Comments

Breaking down the mock draft: rounds 1-3

Round 1

Pick No. 1 (1 overall): Hanley Ramirez
Preseason projection: .312 AVG, 25 HR, 33 SB, 108 R, 80 RBI, 658 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times

I came into this draft really wanting to shore up my middle infield (especially with the shortage of quality shortstops) and figured since I wouldn't be picking again until No. 24, I should grab an elite player at a scarce position. I'm confident that Hanley should post an excellent BA and swipe 30+ bags but I am a little worried about his decrease in power. His isolated power score has been dropping for three straight seasons (.239 in '08; .201 in '09; .175 last season). This season I don't see him hitting quite as many ground balls (51 percent last season); his previous flyball and line drive numbers should return as he enters his age 27 season.

Pick No. 2 (2 overall): Albert Pujols
Preseason projection: .327 AVG, 43 HR, 11 SB, 120 R, 126 RBI, 694 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

As the owner of the second pick, I was going to select whomever wasn't taken between Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols. As it turned out, Vincent Carmela selected Ramirez, leaving me the player I'd have selected first overall if I had the pick. An argument can be made for position scarcity making Hanley more valuable, but it's not one I'm going to buy. Lately, those leading the position scarcity argument will say something like, “Ramirez, paired with the 12th best first baseman will outproduce Pujols and the 12th best shortstop.” To which I'd reply, when did selecting Pujols prevent an owner from selecting a player at a scarce position in the upcoming rounds? What's wrong with a pairing of Pujols and Jose Reyes, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Ryan Zimmerman, Kevin Youkilis, or another upper-echelon talent at a scarce position?

Assuming Pujols stays healthy, he is going to demolish Ramirez from a strictly statistical standpoint at season's end, and to me, that's the important thing with your first round pick. Quietly under-appreciated is the fact that in the last two years Pujols has swiped a combined 30 bases, 14 last year, and 16 in 2009, adding to what is already an explosive line likely to include gaudy runs and RBI totals along with 40+ home runs and an average well north of .300. Sign me up for those totals as my team anchor.

Pick No. (3 overall): Miguel Cabrera
Preseason projection: .322 AVG, 37 HR, 4 SB, 105 R, 126 RBI, 685 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

This was a very straightforward pick for me. Pujols, Ramirez, and Cabrera are top three locks as far as I'm concerned. I would have preferred Hanley to solidify my shortstop spot with the head of the class at that position, but was more than content with settling for Cabrera instead. Like Pujols, Cabrera has been a hallmark for first round consistency and he posted his best season in his age 27 year in 2010 (111 R, 38 HR, 126 RBI, .328 AVG, .294 ISO). A year older, there's no reason to believe Cabrera won't produce first round worthy numbers, at the very least.

Pick No. 4 (4 overall) Evan Longoria
Preseason projection: .295 AVG, 31 HR, 13 SB, 102 R, 115 RBI, 570 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game Of Inches

I was torn between Longoria and my boy Troy Tulowitzki (who ended up going the pick later). I "accidentally" drafted Tulo in my snake league first last year over Chase Utley (because I thought Utley would have been picked before I got to him and I was trigger happy on Tulo) but it was a blessing in disguise. I sort of regret this Longoria pick (mainly because of who I ended up with at shortstop and my other third baseman) but throughout this draft I just thought, "Who will end up higher in that Player Rater?"

As much as I love the Rockies shortstop and as deep as I think third base is at this year, I just think Tulo is too much of a risk (especially because of his health) and Longoria is just rock solid and started stealing bases last year as well. Along with the fact that he excels at the other four categories), that makes him my top pick.

Pick No. 5 (5 overall): Troy Tulowitzki
Preseason projection: .300 AVG, 31 HR, 15 SB, 98 R, 102 RBI, 631 PA
 Drafted by: Dave Chenok, winner of The Hardball Times "Compete Against the Experts" fantasy league competition

I was happily surprised that Tulo was available at the five pick—I figured I’d end up with Longoria, which would have been fine, but I was delighted to get Tulo; I might have even taken him at No. 3. I think shortstop is by far the weakest position in this year’s draft—after Hanley, Tulo and Reyes, you drop down to Rollins and Drew, which is a huge statistical (and risk) dropoff in my book. So position scarcity ruled the day.

I like to make sure my first round pick will do something for me in all scoring categories, and Tulo will give me solid across-the-board numbers, with about 100 runs and RBI, 30 HRs, a .300 average, and 10-15 steals. I am a little concerned that he will get pitched around to some extent—the Rockies lineup didn’t improve much over the winter, and I expect CarGo to regress a bit statistically this year. And Tulo may not have one insane month like September last year (which elevated his overall stats), but he is so solid overall it was an easy choice. At the tender age of 26, Tulo actually has upside from his outstanding line of 2010. And who can argue with your top pick playing half his games at Coors?

Pick No. 6 (6 overall): Robinson Cano
Preseason projection: .308 AVG, 24 HR, 3 SB, 95 R, 99 RBI, 669 PA
Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

Once I found out I had the sixth pick in the draft, I immediately targeted Cano. I locked in my selection, but that came at a price: Joey Votto. Soon after clicking the "draft" button, I wished I'd been paying more attention and taken Votto, whom I had a couple spots higher on my draft board. No matter, because Cano is still a top-level talent. Cano's in his peak seasons, and has a great lineup spot while playing for a great Yankees'squad.

Pick No. 7 (7 overall): Joey Votto.
Preseason pProjection: .319 AVG, 33 HR, 13 SB, 96 R, 105 RBI, 640 PA
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times

My selection of Votto was simply a personal preference. I only considered Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, and Votto at this selection. CarGo had an amazing season in 2010, but those strikeouts scare me. He’s still 30/30 capable. I think Braun is going to progress in 2011 to new heights. He’s my preseason NL MVP. So why did I choose Votto? He's is safe and consistent and just what I like with a first round pick. He will hit for average and home runs, and even showed a slight ability to steal even though he’s not extremely fast.

Pick No. (8 overall): David Wright
Preseason projection: .295 AVG, 27 HR, 20 SB, 99 R, 104 RBI, 683 PA
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

I believe that your first round pick needs to be reliable. David Wright is just that. You may not know exactly what you’ll get, considering how injury- prone his teammates have been, but he’s a five-category player. I was targeting either Wright or Longoria, depending on which one fell. Third base is a very weak position this year, so locking up one of the top four (which include Zimmerman and Alex Rodriguez) was my goal once I was given the eighth overall pick. Wright struck out a career high 160 times last year, but he was also asked to “do it all” without Jason Bay, Reyes and Carlos Beltran around for different portions of the season. He was probably pressing too much. A return to a .300 average could occur with a reduction in strikeouts. A 30-100-100-25 line is certain attainable as well.

Pick No. 9 (9 overall): Chase Utley
Preseason projection: .288 AVG, 26 HR, 13 SB, 99 R, 95 RBI, 625 PA
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

I was hoping to get Wright. Unfortunately, I was not so lucky, so I took Utley, my highest ranked second baseman for 2011. Despite his having a down seven months since the start of September of 2009, I expect big things from him this season. Even last year, when injuries limited him to 115 games and his worst ISO showing since his first season in the majors, Utley still hit 16 bombs and stole 13 bases while getting caught only twice. That amounts to a rate of 21.5 home runs and 17.5 stolen bases per 155 games. Utley has played 147, 160, 132, 159, 156, and 115 games over the past six years, and I do not expect him to play less than 145-150 games in 2011.

Some might call Cano the best second basemen for 2011, but given Utley's comparable power, comparable R/RBI expectations and superior stolen base abilities (Utley stole more bases in 2009 than Cano has in his career), the difference in batting average between the two (Utley has a career .293 mark, Cano .309) seems less important than most tend to emphasize. Sure, Cano is on the better side of 30 (Utley's 33), but that does not mean Utley does not return to his 2007-2009 form this season. Call me crazy for taking Utley here, given the availability of superior "totals" guys like Ryan Braun and Matt Holliday. I draft based on scarcity and the difference between Utley and the next tier of second basemen warranted the "reach."

Pick No. 10 (10 overall): Adrian Gonzalez
Preseason projection: .285 AVG, 33 HR, 0 SB, 92 R, 102 RBI, 687 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

Best available infielder. Unfortunately, the likes of Wright, Cano and Utley weren't available, which wasn't a surprise. I considered Mark Teixeira, but I'm more confident in the batting average A-Gon will provide. I acknowledge that I'm picking a first baseman in a deep class and taking on the risk involved given his shoulder surgery, but in his setting and lineup‐and with another selection in five picks to back myself up‐I took the chance on someone who approached or reached 40 homers even when he played home games at PETCO Park. I'm not saying he'll approach 60, but opponents will find it hard to pitch around him now. Plus, first base isn't cavernous. It has its limits. Power early. Power early.

Pick No. 11 (11 Overall) Carlos Gonzalez
Preseason projection: .308 AVG, 28 HR, 22 SB, 101 R, 101 RBI, 626 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

I was not here for the first four rounds of the draft because the Jets surprising victory over the Pats just before the draft caused unexpected celebrations, so these first five picks were MDC's and not mine. Nevertheless I'll add my thoughts on the players handed to me. CarGo is certainly a controversial player this year with a lot of attention drawn his way due to his gaudy 2010 and the expectation of regression. I already covered Gonzalez in this article early in the offseason and I stand by my conclusion that you are probably overpicking him in round 1, with Wright or Braun as better options.

Pick No. 12 (12 overall): Josh Hamilton
Preseason projection: .324 AVG, 26 HR, 7 SB, 80 R, 91 RBI, 525 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys

I couldn’t believe Gonzalez fell as far as he did, but my hopes were squashed when he was taken right before me. Coming so close to getting the five-category stud hurt, but picking the 2010 AL MVP in Hamilton wasn’t a bad consolation prize. Injury is the obvious concern here, but when he plays there’s no doubt he is one of the elite hitters in baseball. He batted an absurd .380 and rocked 28 home runs over 424 at-bats from May 1 until he went down with fractures in his rib cage in September. The .390 BABIP likely means his average will drop some, but considering his career average in the “luck” category is .344, it won’t be much of a falloff. Factor in a much improved ISO, a high-powered lineup and a homer-friendly ballpark and you have a guy who I think will exceed these projections and post closer to 30 bombs and 100 RBIs while maintaining a high batting average.

Round 2

Pick No. 1 (13 overall): Ryan Howard
Preseason projection: .276 AVG, 43 HR, 2 SB, 98 R, 133 RBI, 682 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini -- Bruno Boys

While I would have liked to have locked down some talent at thinner positions, I decided to stick with power and took Howard at the turn. The Philadelphia Phillies' first baseman’s average line was 102/50/143 over his first four full seasons but an ankle injury sustained at the beginning of August marred what could have been a fifth big year with an even better batting average‐he was at .292 before going down. He wasn’t the same after that, hitting just .231 in the last 38 games after his return, but he still managed to contribute eight homers to reach the 30-plus plateau. Now that he and the rest of the Phillies lineup is healthy again, you can expect a return to the 40 home run, 130 RBI range and perhaps even a .280 average to go with it.

Pick No. 2 (14 Overall) Mark Teixeira
Preseason projection: .282 AVG, 36 HR, 1 SB, 106 R, 120 RBI, 698 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

The next player assigned to my team by MDC's rankings was Teixeira, who is someone I certainly would not take at this point. 2010 was an uninspiring year for Teixeira, undergoing his typical early-season slump that he never fully came out of. Certainly I would expect his batting average to climb back into the .290s this year as his BABIP regresses, but his mid-30s power doesn't make up for his lack of contribution in steals. He is a fairly safe pick, but I would rather take the more impactful Carl Crawford in this spot.

Pick No. 3 (15 overall): Alex Rodriguez
Preseason projection: .284, 35 HR, 10 SB, 95 R, 116 RBI, 621 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

I considered Zimmerman here, but I chose the player in the better lineup and with a more stable power history. A-Rod needed a surge to get to 30 last year, and yes, he's slowing down, but he still takes advantage of his home park.

Rodriguez's lineup placement will keep his RBI potential high, but his power is less certain. Despite the groundball increase and shaky BB/K, he clubbed 19 homers after June. He doesn't rely on Yankee Stadium. Groin and calf injuries earned most of his 2010 slump blame. He still mashes right-handed pitchers. Reaching double-digit steals would be a bonus, but with his clean bill of hip health, it's more possible than it was recently. In this risky positional class, A-Rod, even in decline, remains a top hot corner option.

Pick No. 4 (16 overall): Ryan Braun
Preseason projection: .304 AVG, 33 HR, 15 SB, 108 R, 114 RBI, 689 PA
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

In my opinion, outfield is the best source of five-category studs. While the top tier of outfielders always seems deep, the availability of five-category guys is less than 12 players deep and in a five outfield, 12-team league, outfielder scarcity is deceptive. Unless you are comfortable sitting on multiple two or three category only guys like Juan Pierre who hurt you in the categories they do not help, it is essential to grab one or two elite outfielders early in the draft.

I have Braun ranked as my No. 1 fantasy outfielder for 2011, so you must understand my surprise when he was available with the fourth pick of round two. CarGo and Hamilton were drafted ahead of Braun, which I disagree with in light of the inevitable batting average regression due to CarGo (he’s a .285-type hitter, which is still strong, but not first round material) and the health concerns with Hamilton (don't forget what happened the last time Hamilton was a first round fantasy pick). The early rounds of a baseball draft are about consistency, where Braun reigns supreme. You can’t win in the first few rounds, but you surely can lose if you stomach too much risk.

Pick No. 5 (17 overall): Carl Crawford
Preseason Projection: .300 AVG, 14 HR, 42 SB, 93 R, 71 RBI, 610 PA
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

If Wright and Longoria were gone, I may have considered Crawford in the first round. He’s been a first rounder for nearly his entire career and is now moving to Boston, a team that scored the most runs in the AL last year. They’ve also added Adrian Gonzalez and should have a healthy Jacoby Ellsbury as well. I would have had a hard time not taking Braun instead. He slipped pretty far but was taken a pick before I took Crawford.

Crawford had career highs in runs, RBI and homers last year while playing for a contract. I don’t think anybody is expecting that again this year, but he’s always a reliable source for 45+ steals, which he’s done seven times in his career. A .300 average with 110 runs scored is almost certain while leading off for Boston. The short porch in right field could allow Crawford to come close to 20 home runs again and his RBI should be somewhere between 80 and 90.

Pick No. 6 (18 overall): Joe Mauer
Preseason Projection: .338 AVG, 15 HR, 3 SB, 93 R, 87 RBI, 615 PA
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times

Going catcher this early is not normally the strategy I like to use, but I was heartbroken when Braun and Crawford fell off the board the two prior picks. So I used the best player available route and pulled the trigger on Mauer. I believe the power gains in 2009 were real. I’m not saying he’ll hit 28 home runs, but I like Bill James' stat projection for Mauer and would be pleased if he put those kind of numbers up.

Pick No. 7 (19 overall): Matt Holliday
Preseason projection: .313 AVG, 28 HR, 11 SB, 103 R, 109 RBI, 670 PA
Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

Holliday has always been a favorite of mine, and he seems to be undervalued on draft day. He may not hit the most home runs, steal the most bases or have the highest average, but Holliday is an all-around fantasy force who contributes to every category. I actually had Holliday as high as seventh on my board entering the draft, so locking down your seventh rated player in the middle of the second round is fantastic. Also, seeing that we were drafting (the ungodly number of) five outfielders, I thought it was important to get one early. Looking back, I regret not going with one of the mashers at first base, but I couldn't pass on getting a top-10 player in the second round.

Pick No. 8 (20 overall): Ryan Zimmerman
Preseason projection: .297 AVG, 29 HR, 5 SB, 96 R, 102 RBI, 663 PA  
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, winner of The Hardball Times "Compete Against the Experts" fantasy league competition

Substitute Zimmerman for Tulo in my first round pick analysis. Solid player; you know what you’re going to get from him. A year more mature‐almost exactly the same age as Tulo (they are actually born 12 days apart). Similar numbers both in terms of last year’s actual and this year’s projections. I believe Zimm has not yet hit his peak, and that there is actually upside to the projections, without tremendous downside risk.

I see third base as weak this year‐I think there are for really solid “sure thing” third basemen, and with Longoria, Wright and A-Rod all gone, I wanted to get one before the dropoff. By the way, I’m now looking at my lineup after two rounds and thinking (a) Ipassed on Prince Fielder‐the last real first base bopper‐to get Zimm, so I’d better get a good one before they’re all gone; and (b) I’m a little light in the stolen base category already, and going need to make that up somewhere. I’m already thinking about what round I can get Pierre or Michael Bourn.

Pick No. 9 (21 Overall) Roy Halladay
Preseason projection: 18 W, 3.16 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 190 K, 245 IP
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game Of Inches

As deep as pitcher is (and I think it is the deepest position this year sans AL-only leagues) I couldn't pass up the best pitcher out there. Even if he doesn't end up being No. 1 on the Player Rater, he'll be top five and absolutely worth a high draft pick. Essentially every single time (excluding injuries) the No. 1 player at every position in every fantasy sport will be worth the pick. Because even if that player isn't the best , he's still not risky because he'll always put up good fantasy numbers and not bust.

Pick No. 10 (22 overall): Prince Fielder
Preseason projection: .276 AVG, 41 HR, 1 SB, 100 R, 112 RBI, 706 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores Fantasy Baseball Cafe

I was a couple of picks away from snagging Zimmerman to fill in the scarcer corner, but landing Fielder was a nice consolation prize. If small size patterns are to be believed, Fielder has his best seasons in odd years, which makes 2011 a good omen for Fielder to post superb numbers and for good measure, this is Prince's contract year. Weight issues and annual inconsistency aside, Fielder still managed to slug 32 round trippers and his low RBI total seems to be on the wrong side of fluky, given that Braun had a bit of an off year while the likes of Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, and Casey McGehee blossomed.

It might seem like overkill to be drafting two elite power-hitting first basemen with the first two picks, but I felt like Fielder was the best remaining player on the board and had to be drafted. On the low end, I see Fielder hitting .270, 30-35 HR, 100 RBI and while I believe he won't replicate his 50-homer season, I can also see him having a similar season to 2009.

Pick No. 11 (23 overall): Kevin Youkilis
Bill James Preseason Projection: .294 AVG, 25 HR, 5 SB, 103 R, 93 RBI, 649 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

After selecting Pujols with my first pick, the plan was to fill the hot corner with an upper echelon player. My hope was that Zimmerman would still be on the board. Unfortunately for me Dave Chenok scooped him up at pick eight, leaving me moving on to plan B, which in this case was selecting Youkilis. To open the year, Youk will not have third base eligibility, but given that he is the starting third baseman for the Boston Red Sox this year, it won't take long for him to gain that eligibility. He was the last player in my upper tier of third baseman, meaning it was select him, or take a gamble on a riskier option later in the draft.

While it remains to be seen where Youk will be penciled into the heart of the Red Sox order, one thing is for certain: His tremendous average (over .300 each of the last three seasons) and superb on-base skills will lead to hearty run and RBI totals in a loaded lineup. A safe bet for 20 or more homeruns if he 's able to accumulate 550 plate appearances, Youkilis' final stat line will almost certainly place him in the top five at his position. The biggest knock on him is that it isn't certain he will reach that many plate appearances—he tallied only 435 last season, and in 2009 reached 588 in a season that saw him miss significant time as well. But the possibility of getting elite numbers at a top- heavy position was too much to pass up over durability concerns.

Pick No. 2 (24 overall): Shin-Soo Choo
Preseason projection: .299 AVG, 20 HR, 19 SB, 88 R, 85 RBI, 625 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times

From this position, I wanted Fielder, but when that didn't happen it came down to either Choo or Matt Kemp. Usually in the second round I like to grab a high power/decent batting average guy or one of the few remaining high batting average, decent power with speed guys. I like Kemp and thought he got a bad rap last season from the Dodgers front office, but I'm not sure if he is a .250 or a .290 hitter. I feel much more confident with Choo in terms of acquiring a 20-20 outfielder with a decent batting average. I just wish he had a better supporting cast around him.

Round 3

Pick No. 1 (25 overall): Rickie Weeks
Preseason projection: .257 AVG, 21 HR, 11 SB, 94 R, 61 RBI, 589 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times

After taking the conservative route in my Choo over Kemp pick, one would think I would, again, play it safe and grab Dustin Pedroia over Weeks, since I was determined to get my middle infield in place. However, my unconscious disappointment in not choosing to gamble on Kemp made me reach for Weeks as the third overall second basemen taken. Don't get me wrong: Pedroia is a fine pick and should be healthy in '11. His .300+ batting average and double-digit home run/steals will make a fine addition on any fantasy team but (and this is probably No. 2 among all fantasy no-no's, so take note!) I FEEL AS THOUGH RICKIE WEEKS OWES ME!

Since 2006, I have aggressively targeted Weeks for my teams. Last season was the first time I ignored his services and you can imagine my disappointment when he started raking over the summer while staying healthy. I know Weeks does have a slight strikeout problem, but I am worried about his decreasing speed—something I suspect occurred when he sustained a major knee injury in '08. Weeks is still young (entering his age 28 season) but for him to stay healthy he may have to conserve his legs while hoping to avoid the occasional freak hand injury. I'll admit to being closer to selecting Ian Kinsler here than Pedroia but I am (like many) excited about the upcoming Brewers season and, in retrospect, my decision-making may have not been optimal.

Pick No. 2 (26 overall) Ian Kinsler
Preseason projection: .275 AVG, 20 HR, 21 SB, 98 R, 74 RBI, 609 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

This pick was one of the most difficult of the draft for me. I was torn among three players: Kinsler, Reyes and Pedroia. Each player presents his own set of risks, so I opted for the player I felt had the highest ceiling and the best blend of power and speed. It should also be noted that Kinsler's floor is fairly high as well, considering he's put up upper-echelon numbers for his position even in seasons where he has missed significant time. While drafting Kinsler means one should anticipate on him missing some time, the thought of a fully healthy season, much like Weeks had last season after years of missing time frequently, is reason to salivate.

Like my pick before him, Youkilis, Kinsler's lineup slot remains a bit of a mystery going into the season. Regardless of where he hits, he'll have an opportunity to pile up solid counting stats while being a near lock, assuming 120 or more games played (a feet he's accomplished every year except last year) to total 40 plus home runs and stolen bases combined (he compiled an eye-popping 31 homers and 31 steals in 2009) in a loaded Rangers lineup that plays half its games in one of the more favorable hitters parks. Assuming Kinsler's 2009 batted ball profile is an outlier (54.0 fly ball percentage), I'd expect him to hit over .280 (at the expense of his career high 31 HR's).

Pick No. 3 (27 overall): Matt Kemp
Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 27 HR, 24 SB, 98 R, 95 RBI, 671 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

I was in a bit of a quandary with this pick. Had this been an actual league draft, I would have taken either Tim Lincecum or Felix Hernandez, but as an experiment, I decided to forgo both and see what kind of pitching staff I could come up with in later rounds. This left me mulling over three players: Kemp, Pedroia and Reyes. I felt that while Reyes is an above-average shortstop, his upside is tempered if his baserunning attempts are limited (I see him going 40 steals tops). While Pedroia should pick up where he left off before his injury last season, my inner Dodgers fan provoked me into taking Kemp instead.

Kemp underwhelmed in 2010, namely in his sub-par batting average (.249) and a relatively low stolen base count (19), but that belies the fact that Kemp had posted a career-high 28 home runs and a .201 ISO. Historically, Kemp had generally been a high average, but in 2010, he hit a sub-standard .295 BABIP. To a Dodgers fan, it seemed like Kemp was a bit unlucky in some well-hit fly balls not falling as extra base hits. In addition, it seemed like he was caught stealing on a number of borderline calls. I can't say for certain if his speed score declined, but I would expect Kemp's stolen base total to take a bounce up (25, reasonably). Couple this with a positive correction to his batting average and a rebound seems in order for the 26-year-old Kemp.

Pick #4 (28 Overall) Dustin Pedroia
Preseason projection: .297 AVG, 17 HR, 16 SB, 108 R, 77 RBI, 702 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game Of Inches

In fantasy, guys who steal bases, hit home runs, have a high average and play on a great offense are a great commodity. Pedroia's health doesn't worry me at all and he's my No. 2 second baseman (behind Robinson Cano). Sure, nothing he does is flashy and he's not really "great" at any one thing, but he's above average in all categories (except maybe RBIs). At a position that's decently scarce, Pedroia poses little to no risk and can help you in all five categories- two things that make me happy with my third-round selection.

 Pick No. 5 (29 overall): Jose Reyes
Preseason projection: .286 AVG, 11 HR, 36 SB, 85 R, 52 RBI, 572 PA
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, winner of The Hardball Times "Compete Against the Experts" fantasy league competition

  This was an opportunistic pick. I was sitting on Pedroia—both because I think he’s in store for a monster year, and because I like to fill up on middle infielders early because of position scarcity. Wouldn’t you know it: Adam Kaplan grabbed him with the pick before mine. My heart sank. I’m still needing that bopper first baseman, and I thought about Justin Morneau, but he’s kind of a wild card coming back from a concussion, and I don’t want to lose with a high upside/high risk pick in an early round. I also considered Nelson Cruz, but there are so many outfielders to be had, and I worry about Cruz’s ability to stay healthy.

It suddenly occurred to me that with Reyes, I could potentially have a lot of what I’d have with Pedroia—at best similar production overall, and at worst I’ve kept up on runs and steals. I feel that last year it took a while for Reyes to ease his way back into things—his second half splits were better than his first half—and he still has a lot of potential upside at age 27. He has shown power in the past, and could have upside in the power categories (though I’ll probably take the under on his stolen base projection just because of hamstring health). But I figure his hamstring and other health issues are mostly behind him. I figure the Mets are embarrassed by how last year went, and they are a talented team that will get serious under new management. Reyes is an emotional guy, and I think he got caught up in the lethargy that characterized last year’s team. Again, I feel that shortstop is the weakest position this year, and with Reyes I’ve now locked up two of the best three, which means most everyone else is going to be weak at that position.

Pick No. 6 (30 overall): Brian McCann
Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 24 HR, 4 SB, 68 R, 94 RBI, 579 PA
Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

When I made this pick, I felt like one of those guys in the movies who's asking out a women at first glance: "I never do this, but..."

I rarely take a catcher early, usually waiting until most of my roster is filled. However, looking at the available talent pool, I didn't see anything else that caught my fancy. I decided to just go with McCann so I wouldn't have to worry about finding a catcher later. Plus, McCann is still just 27 when the season begins and is as consistent as they come. Adding Dan Uggla to their lineup should help McCann's RBI or run opportunities, depending on what the Braves do with their batting order.

Pick No. 7 (31 overall): Tim Lincecum
Preseason projection: 15 W, 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 233 K, 207 IP
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times

Again, this is not a typical move I would have made in a draft. I usually will wait on pitching. Seeing as this is an expert draft and most experts like to wait on pitchers, I adapted. Getting Lincecum in the middle of the third round felt like grand larceny to me. After struggling at the beginning of the season, he showed control gains, still struck out 200+ batters and looked amazing in the playoffs. I’m a little worried about the innings load, but he is the “Freaky Franchise” or is it “Big Time Timmy Jim”?

Pick No. 8 (32 overall): Justin Morneau
Preseason projection: .294 AVG, 27 HR, 0 SB, 81 R, 101 RBI, 573 PA
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

I was hoping to get Weeks, Reyes, Pedroia or Kinsler. None of those four made it to me. Morneau, assuming he returns healthy from his concussion, is a safe bet for 30 HR and 100 RBI. He’s a career .285 hitter, which I will take in 2011. He normally scores between 85 and 95 runs and had driven in 100+ in four consecutive seasons before getting injured last year. Morneau was batting .345 with 18 homers in half of a season in 2010. I’m expecting a return to normalcy.

Pick No. 9 (33 overall): Nelson Cruz
Preseason projection: .297 AVG, 28 HR, 18 SB, 74 R, 88 RBI, 523 PA
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

With Reyes and Kinsler off the board, I did not want to have to reach too much for a starting shortstop or quality middle infielder. I also had no shot at a legitimate top tier third basemen with Zimmerman and A-Rod off the board. I suppose an argument could be made for newly minted Ranger Adrian Beltre (though, as I have said, third base is not a particularly shallow fantasy position). Had incecum come my way, I would have likely drafted him. However, the best all-around player just happened, again, to be an outfielder, Nelson Cruz. While Cruz is certainly a health risk, he produces enough counting stats when on the field, like Kinsler, to warrant an early round pick despite the risks he poses.

Though Cruz has played only a combined 236 games over the past two seasons, he has also hit 55 home runs and stolen 37 bases. Even last season, playing 108 games, Cruz was one of fantasy’s most valuable outfielders. I view him as capable of a .280-.285 batting average with 25 home runs and 15 stolen bases next season, even if perpetually injured like last year. Just imagine what he might do if healthy. Yeah, he’s just that good.

Pick No. 10 (34 overall): Jimmy Rollins
Preseason projection: .266 AVG, 15 HR, 25 SB, 87 R, 61 RBI, 605 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

The positional scarcity continued to kick in. Would I rather take my chances that Stephen Drew finally gives us a little extra ... or that a 30-steal player can recapture the rest of his offensive game? Is Rollins that much of a drop-off from Jose Reyes? Reyes' value is almost solely based on steals. We've seen Rollins consistently contribute in three other categoriess (batting average is not among my safe bets for him, admittedly.)

But Rollins' physical ability hasn't diminished much, and his offseason workouts focused on health and flexibility. With this year's positional class, why not grab above-average counting stats from a shortstop?

Pick No. 11 (35 overall) Victor Martinez
Preseason projection: .298 AVG, 19 HR, 1 SB, 69 R, 88 RBI, 572 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

In the third round I got another player I likely would have passed up in favor of Felix Hernandez or Dan Uggla. Martinez has been an incredibly consistent catcher over the last six seasons and has shown little signs of slowing down (other than doing less and less catching). Still I feel there is little upside to this pick and tons of potential downside, and in a 12-team mixed league with one catching spot it almost always is wise to wait for a catcher late.

Pick No. 12 (36 overall): Brandon Phillips
Preseason projection: .270 AVG, 20 HR, 17 SB, 88 R, 76 RBI, 658 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys

At this point I felt I needed to fill one of the scarcer middle infield positions and went with an established veteran. It seems like he has been around forever, but he actually will turn just 30 years old this year, and since he isn’t an NFL running back this is far from a declining stage from an age standpoint.

Some will point to his falling ISO percentage and batting average as indications that he is on the downturn, but a closer look at his 2010 game log shows he was doing just fine hitting at a .290 clip until a pitched ball injured his wrist in late August. He was never the same after that, batting .198 over the last month of the season with only two home runs and admitted in late September that “It still hurts real bad.” People shouldn’t overlook that he posted a career-high contact percentage last season, and now that he is healthy he should regain one of the top two spots in the order and a top-five rank among his position.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:41am (19) Comments

Monday, January 31, 2011

2011 aversion all stars: part I

Since I started writing about fantasy baseball for The Hardball Times, I’ve tried to stay within the friendly confines that have been set before me. I have avoided the feather ruffling, if you will. Well, it's time to shake things up a bit. Be forewarned, two of the four players on this list are no doubt hall-of-famers. Some of these guys I have rostered over the years, and they played pivotal roles in my championships.

Without further ado, it’s time for Part I in “Ben’s Aversion All-Stars” (aka The Hate List).

Mariano Rivera RP NYY- Rivera stands alone atop the list of the greatest closers in the history of Major League Baseball. His cut fastball can be argued as the most spectacular pitch ever. With his unwavering intensity and impeccable control, Rivera set the bar for all the future relievers that would follow him.

With all that said, Rivera is dead to me. Upon his headstone will be many great accomplishments, but a member of my fantasy team will not be one of them. Something tells me that Brian Cashman knows the end is nearer than people think. With the Rafael Soriano bailout plan in place, Cashman is revealing that Rivera’s swan song is upon us.

At 41, Rivera is finally wearing down. I must say he pitched well through injuries in 2010, but there are still kinks in the metal of the “Hammer of God.” His second-half splits show a rise in ERA to 2.60. It’s also time to talk about that famed cutter that has been on a downward decline since 2005 (93 MPH) to 2010 (91.1). This decline in velocity could explain the striekouts per nine innings (6.8 K/9) regression that was his worst in four years. I’m not a Rivera hater or detractor, but if there was ever a time that I would pass on Mo, that time is now.

Adrian Beltre 3B TEX- In 2004, Beltre made us all believers. From 2005 to 2009, he made us forget. In 2010, he made us believers again. Now that it’s 2011, it’s time to forget Beltre.

I know that sounds a little harsh, and it probably is. But I remember what happened in Seattle. Nagging injuries and general frustration haunted Beltre. The arrival in Boston offered him a fresh start, and you can’t blame the guy for taking advantage of it.

Beltre, now a Texas Ranger, is traditionally a pull-hitting right-hander. Upon further review, all his home runs in 2010 were in ballparks that favored a right-handed hitter better than Arlington (with the exception of the one he hit in Texas). The home run Beltre hit at AT&T was to left-center field, which again favors him better than his new home in Texas.

His .339 BABIP suggests that his .321 BA is destined to correct itself. His speed is gone; so you can take that out of his bag of tricks. After you adjust for home runs, batting average, lack of speed, and his full wallet, expect a regression to 2008 levels with a slightly better BA, something like .279 BA/24 HR/80 RBI/3 SB/75 R.

Again, this is all assuming he stays on the field and gets healthy, pain-free at-bats. All I am saying is that losing out on one of the big-five third basemen should not make you rush into Beltre (50 ADP). I would roster him if he was cheap enough, but I sincerely doubt that he will be undervalued.

Focus on Aramis Ramirez (102.98 ADP) or Pablo Sandoval (160.51 ADP), whom you can get in later rounds. Pedro Alvarez (85.56 ADP) could also be an interesting play if you are willing to live with the batting average uncertainty.

Derek Jeter SS NYY- You know there are people in certain circles that proclaim Derek Jeter as the greatest player in the storied history of the Yankees. So Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, move along because Jeter is king of the Bronx (insert tongue in cheek).

I will give Jeter his fair credit. He is one of the top five shortstops in MLB history that stayed at shortstop throughout their careers. He is also a great Yankee, and can be considered the starting SS on their all-time team.

We here at The Hardball Times recently held our first mock draft of 2011. In it, we found that middle infielders are going to be at a premium. Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins...then we saw Derek Jeter roll off the board to Jeffrey Gross with the 40th overall selection.

I’m not saying that Jeter doesn’t offer a decent line for a shortstop. Taking into account his 2nd half demise, I’m projecting an optimistic line of .285 BA/11 HR/75 RBI/14 SB/103 R. That’s decent, right? But is it that much different than what Alexei Ramirez offers you at a cheaper price?

For that matter, is it that much different from Starlin Castro, Stephen Drew, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, or even Ian Desmond?

These are valid questions because Jeter isn’t getting any younger, and to grab him as the 40th overall selection means you are bypassing ace-level pitchers and gobs of talented players that will give substantially more fantasy value (Kendry Morales, Andre Ethier, Jason Heyward, etc…).

As for me, I’ll wait, because fantasy championships are won by balancing statistics over all your players. If Jeter’s perceived value is too high (which it normally is), then you pass, grab Kendry Morales, and wait for Stephen Drew to fall to you in the eighth. Adapt to succeed.

Grady Sizemore OF CLE- Oh, Grady, oh, Grady, wherefore art thou, Grady? His five tools draw us in like the smell of bacon on the stove in the morning, but Grady’s sizzle has, for lack of a better word, fizzled.

Forgive his lack of home runs in 140 plate appearances of an injury-riddled 2010 season. He supposedly had successful microfracture surgery on his knee. For those of you who are unfamiliar with microfracture surgery, you should read up on how it affects our friends in the NBA. It lingers.

So let’s assume that Sizemore sees his stolen bases fall by 30 percent or so. How about a round number of 20 steals? Picture a return in power from zero home runs in 2010 and 18 in 2009 to another round number of 20 home runs. So Sizemore is a 20/20 guy again.

What did we forget? Yes, we forget that pesky batting average. Sizemore has struggled with his BA for his entire career. To believe that he will be any better than his career averages is wishful thinking. If anything, I’d project a .250 BA at best.

So the greatest Grady Sizemore that you can allow yourself to project is .250 BA/20 HR/20 SB. He was the 83rd selection in our mock and 97.8 ADP on Mock Draft Central. I can’t live with a ceiling that low on any of my top 15 picks. I’d be interested to see how many of those five tools he’ll be able to show in 2011.

Leave him alone. Let one of his Grady’s Ladies gobble him up. If you want this skill set, wait a hundred picks (ten rounds) and grab Drew Stubbs. He’ll be better anyways.

Stay tuned next Monday for the next four in my fantasy doghouse. Hopefully this list will show you that it’s not all roses in the draft. You have to be smart. You must not only know the guys you like, but you must also know the guys you don't like. Knowing the guys you don't like will allow you to strategize better and make those impulse picks count. Adapting to succeed requires a thorough knowledge and idea of all the players available to you whether you love ‘em or hate ‘em.

Posted by Ben Pritchett at 4:10am (25) Comments

Fluke watch (potential closer edition): Evan Meek and Brandon League

The closer is a hard role to predict for fantasy, and it's not helped by the fact that certain pitchers, whom you pick up to get saves, are kicked out of the closer role mid-season, leaving a fantasy player in a bit of a bind. So today we're going to look at two guys who may be closers for their teams this year: Seattle's Brandon League and Pittsburgh's Evan Meek.

League is a fascinating pitcher because he has one pitch that should be a plus pitch, his fastball, and a splitter that is actually a plus pitch (he might also have a slider, but it's hard to separate from the splitter and it's used infrequently, so I'm not going to mention it here). As a result, he's likely to get some save opportunities next year. Unfortunately, he's probably not a good bet for fantasy.

League's fastball has amazing movement and velocity: the pitch averages 95.4 mph with a great amount of tail (horizontal spin deflection of -10.7 inches) and a ton of sink (as much as a Brandon Webb fastball). Naturally, we'd expect it to have amazing groundball numbers, as well as a pretty good strikeout rate.

Well, this is only half right: against right-handed batters, League averages a 7% swinging strike rate (slightly above average for a fastball) and an amazing 66.4% ground ball rate. However, against left-handed batters he has a poor swinging strike rate (3.2%), and his groundball rate is only 44.8%. Thus, the pitch is actually a bad pitch against left-handed batters. And of course, this pitch is the most frequently used pitch (around 75% of the time) against these batters, resulting in League having bad splits.

League's splitter is great vs. both types of batters, but it's not enough to compensate for the fastball's poor performance against lefties. And, historically, the groundball splits have been the same for League, though the swinging strike splits have not always been there. Thus, as a closer, you have the problem of being pretty weak against lineups filled with lefties (hello, Yankees!), and unlike a starter, it's hard for a fantasy owner to manage a player around that problem.

Thus, even if he's made the full-time closer of Seattle, I'd avoid League as your source for saves.

Meek is also a fascinating pitcher with odd pitching splits, but in such a way that make him a much better bet to be a successful closer, if given the opportunity, than League. Like League, Meek has two pitches that look like they could be plus pitches, a fastball with a good amount of cutting action and velocity, and a slider with solid horizontal movement.

Meek's fastball is thrown around 75% of the time against both types of batters and averages a velocity of 94.5 mph. As mentioned, unlike League's pitch, which tails in on same-handed batters, Meek's fastball cuts in the other direction, away from those batters. The pitch does not have a great amount of sink.

Despite the lack of sink, the pitch is amazing at getting ground balls against left-handed batters (70.3% of the time). The pitch doesn't get a good amount of swinging strikes (only an average rate of 5.8%) against these batters, but the ground balls make the pitch amazingly effective. Against right-handed batters, the pitch is amazing at getting swinging strikes (12.2%!), but is an extreme flyball pitch (30.3%). Thus, the pitch is once again pretty effective.

Meek, using this pitch in addition to a very good slider, is able to a very good pitcher. Now the groundball splits are not surprising, as they appear to have been there for Meek in 2009 as well. In 2009, the swinging strike splits (better vs. RHBs than LHBs by a lot) were not, so this could regress. Regardless, it's a good sign that Meek is able, unlike League, to get out left- and right-handed batters, even if he does so via different ways.

It's not clear how much either of these guys will close next year, if at all. Meek however, is the better option to keep track of just in case—though, keep in mind that Meek has a potential rival for the closer spot in Joel Hanrahan. Still, just remember, while League's stuff looks electric, he has issues getting out left-handed batters. Meek has no such trouble.

Posted by Josh Smolow at 4:11am (6) Comments

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Thursday, January 27, 2011

2011 top 10 prospects: Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres