THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Michael Stein at 5:11am (35) Comments

Diamonds in the graph

Earlier this winter, The Hardball Times offered prospective fantasy baseball writers the opportunity to compete in a Hardball Times fantasy league. Entrants wrote fantasy baseball articles, the best of which would be chosen as our winner. While we could only choose one winner to play in the league (congratulations, Dave Chenok), we had so many great articles that we have decided to publish some of the best. This is one of those submissions.

If you're like me, you probably:

use spreadsheets to rank players for your fantasy draft
include some form of projections in those spreadsheets
have players you'll target and guys you won't draft unless they happen to fall far enough
identify those in part by their projected value relative to Average Draft Position (ADP)
expect your leaguemates will be doing similar things
look for strategies to give you an edge

One strategy I've been exploring was inspired by observations from THT's Paul Singman in this article. This strategy concentrates on using one's own (chuckle if your name is Newman) projections along with current ADP for the upcoming season rather than actual stats and ADP from previous seasons.

The concept is to help visualize where value picks might be available in each category during your draft and where you might want to consider reaching. If you just want look at the pretty graphs, scroll down until you see them. If you have a hunger for some nuts and bolts, read on, my robot friend.

To build such rankings, it's best to convert rate stats (AVG, ERA, WHIP) to counting stats (xH [expected hits], xWH, xER) and generate standard scores for every player in each category to determine their projected values. This article was thorough and relatively easy to interpret for this purpose.

It helps to have at least one set of ADP values, and for this example I'll be using those from Mock Draft Central. Once we have these, we'll simply chart them against one another and watch the plot thicken. Since it's a little early to use 2011 projections and ADP, we'll look at what 2010's numbers might have told us if I had thought of this earlier.

I have the numbers from last year's sheets that catered to a specific league. Therefore, this example will plot the values of a pool of 108 drafted players for both hitting and pitching (a 12-team league starting nine hitters and nine pitchers) in the standard 5x5 scoring categories. For reference, here are the average projected stats and standard deviation (SD) for each.

HR: 22, 8.07
RBI: 84, 16.25
R: 84, 10.37
SB: 13, 12.01
AVG: .284, 9.17 (SD is for xH, rather than AVG; equates to roughly .016 AVG)
K: 103, 54.89
WHIP: 1.24, 7.77 (SD is for xWH, rather than WHIP; equates to roughly .04 WHIP)
ERA: 3.57, 4.42 (SD is for xER, rather than ERA; equates to roughly .19 ERA)
W: 7, 4.54
SV: 9, 13.42

Note: Starters and relievers were grouped together; to generate accurate values I believe they must be. Players with ADPs off the chart appear on the 0 ADP line.

As one might expect, most of the projected elite home run hitters reside in the earliest rounds at bottom right, with a number of moderate contributors clustered shortly thereafter.

What one shouldn't have expected last year was to find many guys projected to launch more than 22 homers—and almost none projected for more than 26—available after about the ninth round. With only about a dozen guys cresting 30 home runs, power was at a premium.

There seems to be a somewhat noticeable slope, with a fairly even distribution on the left side of the graph. Some speedsters who could hurt you in the HR category were still clear early targets, while a projection of 14 home runs or fewer appears to be the cutoff for many players to have gone undrafted.

Not surprisingly, RBI appear to follow a pattern similar to homers, though with a more defined slope. After about the eighth round, 100 RBI-potential players were likely nowhere to be found, and value picks were probably scarcer. On top of this, a cutoff of around 50 RBI at -2 SD means there was more opportunity to be hurt here late in drafts.

Our R chart (what, not pirate-like enough?) reflects a cutlass-like slope, with very few potentially runs-damaging players being taken early. Despite this, 95-run booty probably could have been had in the fifth round and 90 runs plundered as late as the 12th.

After that, however, one should not have counted on much opportunity for parley. Like RBI, the cutoff looks to be around 50, but at -3 SD this would be an even more severe shot below the waterline to your team (aargh, much better).

And now, for something completely different...Some significant stolen base contributors could have been ripe for the picking through round 14, with helpful options available throughout the draft. One also could have aimed for the ultra-elite early picks at the risk of putting all one's eggs in the same bucket...or basket...container of your choice.

Even some modest contributors could have gone undrafted due to a cutoff above 0 SD; there was less risk to be hurt by late picks here. What risk there was probably related to accumulating enough stolen base producers to safely distance your team from your league mates' without sacrificing too much in other categories.

Interesting. The 14 players projected to hit over .300 create a distinct shelf above the first four rounds. Meanwhile, a number of players who could come close to .300 exist through the 20th. It's possible this was one of those instances where one could have gotten better value from knockoffs than spending big on brand names.

While there is a bit of a slope to be seen here, there doesn't appear to have been a ton to worry about since our cutoff is right around 0 SD. Similar to steals, I'm guessing any risk was about making sure not to rely too heavily on empty batting average.

Because using combined standard scores for starters and relievers via xER weights the value of ERA by innings pitched, this should illustrate a more "true" value. As is often preached among fantasy circles, not many pitchers were expected to go very early, and this graph seems to support this strategy.

Projected ERA value varied quite a bit. Some positive contributors should have been free late, and the cutoff was above 0 SD. As we know, there is also greater risk mitigation inherent in better flexibility/more necessity to play match-ups with pitchers.

This graph is almost identical to that of ERA. However, projected WHIP value varied even more wildly (pun intended) and the cutoff was just about 0 SD. There was seemingly a hint of more opportunity to do harm with this stat.

Here we'll notice a separation between starters and relievers. The cluster at the bottom left is presumably closers, likely to be drafted beginning at the tail end of round six. Most of the remaining dots form a well-defined slope, with a good number suggesting late positive potential. The cutoff here pushes toward the negative again, though, so there probably should have been some urgency to stock up on strikeouts.

Again, we have a visible starting pitcher/relief pitcher separation and noticeable slope. Because of this, one may have been tempted to observe a strategy similar to the strikeout category above. This is where it's handy to know that wins are one of the least predictable stats and to avoid putting undue emphasis here.

Last, and possibly least depending on one's preference, are saves. Obviously, only closers and "closers in waiting" are going to have any real positive value here. More than likely we would have fallen either in the camp that drafted them between the sixth and 18th rounds or the camp that waited to take fliers in the last rounds and/or scour the wire.

I believe these graphs, customized with your projections and league settings along with current ADP, could be a useful visual aid for 2011 draft prep. If we go so far as to pick out individual dots to identify potential value picks and overrated players, they could be even moreso, but that is a discussion for another time.

Posted by Jacob Muskopf at 5:10am (3) Comments

Wednesday, February 02, 2011

Risk doesn’t really matter

Risk is one of the most overused words in fantasy baseball advice. Sometimes we’re told to seek out players with more risk so that we can harness their upsides. Other times, we’re told to play it safe and stay away from risk, particularly in the early rounds of draft (or for the high dollar players in auctions). There are indeed several minor strategies where it is best to minimize or maximize your risk exposure but only if risk-adjusting is low cost. But the truth is, properly understood, risk matters comparatively little.

Unfortunately, risk is often misunderstood. A player’s upsides and his downsides should all figure into his forecast performance. A mediocre player with a small chance of an all-star, breakout season will have (or should have) higher expectations than an identical mediocre player with no chance to breakout. This difference in forecast, average performance is important and valuable. That is, these players should have different dollar values.

But if a player has a higher upside but the same forecasts as another player, then the first player must also have a higher downside (to balance things out, note that, by “forecasts,” I mean their expected average results—the number you’d get if you looked at, say, their Oliver projections). So when an expert says that one player is more valuable than another because he has a higher upside, he must mean that this player is more valuable because he’s riskier. Otherwise it’d hardly be news that a particular player is more valuable simply because he has higher projected stats.

I would much rather have a player that is correctly valued using only three sets numbers: his forecasts given health (e.g. how well the pitcher pitches when he does actually pitch), how much time he’s expected to miss, and the forecasts for the replacement level player at his position. Forget about upside or downside.

Experts who do care about risk usually do so for one of three reasons:

—They are misunderstanding risk and they haven’t adjusted their forecasts for both upside and downside. For instance, forecast home runs should be adjusted for injury concerns. Once done, there is much less reason to double emphasize the injury concerns (or the upside).

—They are double emphasizing the risk of injury, for example, because of strategic concerns. Here’s where you need to be extra careful, since these strategies can only apply in narrow cases. There are only a few if any roster spots that are truly available to players with high upsides (a topic of mine in a past article). That is, there’s a cost to holding on to high upside players, waiting for them to break out—you have to forgo the opportunity to hold on to steadier reserves, a Jason Kubel type rather than a Michael Brantley.

—They are risk averse or risk seeking, excessively so. The risk from any one player contributes very little to the overall risk of your lineup. While it is true that the cost of risk for a first-round player is higher than for a fifth-round player, the difference in cost is or should be small.

Likewise, while you’ll need to make profits on your players in order to win your league, it really isn’t more effective to try to find large dollops of profit from a few players than it is to get small contributions from most of your players. You don’t need to start buying lottery tickets.

Making the case for ignoring risk is tough because the experts’ arguments are literally true without being practically useful. By all means, once you’ve got good, injury-adjusted forecasts, go ahead and contemplate risk-based strategies. But there is a risk worth considering first: the risk that you’ll overemphasize risk concerns on your draft day as much as the experts overemphasize them before.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 3:20am (7) Comments

Read and react pt.2

This week, I return with the second part of my read and react column. As I mentioned in the first half of this column, the opinions presented here are generally not based on much advanced analysis. Rather, my goal is to gauge the market for certain players by analyzing their ADP and identify positions to take on those players based on fairly simple market principles. Last week, I focused on players who, at first glance, struck me as undervalued. This week, I’m pegging players who strike me as overvalued.

Honestly, this type of work represents a lot of my research on a yearly basis. On individual cases, I will dive more deeply into advanced numbers, but I think the bang for your buck in research is in adhering to core market principles, keeping up to date with the going rate for players, and having positions on enough players to enable you to act on your positions no matter how your draft or auction progresses. While I do hold some general principles, such as not paying top dollar for a catcher in mixed league with fewer than 14 teams, I normally build my teams by moving on the positions that evolve to represent what I feel to be the most value from draft to draft. As one who follows baseball rather closely and consumes a lot of analysis as a function of my brand of fandom, I’d rather invest in learning how others behave than spend that time marginally refining predictions or developing tight ordinal rankings.

With that out of the way, let’s get into some of the players whose ADP (courtesy of Mock Draft Central) raises red flags. Some of these players may have also been discussed by my colleagues in recent columns. With THT’s growing fantasy staff, I think we do our readers a service by exposing them to different opinions on the same players. We generally don’t confer on these matters, formally at least, so I think there’s value in seeing dissent as well as consensus.

7. Carlos Gonzalez. Yes, CarGo is young, and should still be improving. And, yes, he plays in a hitters’ haven. But, the fact is we don’t even really need to get into his individual situation for me to have an opinion. We all know about the seemingly unsustainable BABIP, but that too plays second fiddle to simple market principles. Here we have a player who made a quantum leap last season and who is now commanding the top price at his position. His price tag is asking you to pay for something that happened only once, and unexpectedly so at that. I think I’d prefer the peace of mind of Joey Votto or Adrian Gonzalez here, or the positional advantage of a Robinson Cano. Moving back a few slots, I think I might even prefer David Wright if I have to make this choice at 10 or so. Essentially, you’d be happy enough with CarGo if he gave you .305/ 103/27/107/22—those are David Wright’s career per-162s, by the way.

12. Josh Hamilton. First things first, Hamilton is not going to hit .359 again. It’s also important remember that he’s coming off his second straight injury-plagued season. Hamilton’s ADP is half a slot ahead of Ryan Braun, and I couldn’t even imagine leaving Braun on the board for Hamilton. I’d also rather invest in Mark Teixeira’s stability or see what Carl Crawford does in Boston, both of who are going around three picks behind Hamilton.

21. Joe Mauer. If you are in an AL-only league, or deep, or two-catcher mixed league, I can see emptying the bank account for Mauer, but in the standard 12-team mixed format, you just can burn a top 20 pick on a player whose second-highest single season home run total is 13, and who does not steal any bases. I don’t care what position he plays, Mauer is only going to make good on this pick if he goes deep more than 20 times and history tells us that is unlikely. This seems like a better time to take the consistency of Matt Holliday, or to make a modest gamble on a rebound from Matt Kemp.

27. Jose Reyes. I don’t exactly hate this pick, but coming off an injury and entering 2010, Reyes was coming in at about spot 20. I would think that now, coming off that same injured season with a disappointing season sprinkled with injury stacked on top of it, his price would dip even further. Two things help save this ADP in my eyes. The first is that as unlikely as I think the proposition is, there is theoretical room to make profit here, given what Reyes has done before. The second is that the shortstops who follow him, Jimmy Rollins (41) and Derek Jeter (45), are also coming off poor seasons and haven’t seen their prices fall far enough either.

28. Shin-Soo Choo. I think Choo is a fantastic player, both in fantasy and on the actual diamond, but he essentially had the same season twice in a row. I’m just not sure there’s much room to profit on him at this price.

31. Brian McCann. The same league type disclaimers apply here as did for Mauer. But seriously, McCann has never topped 68 runs or 24 HRs. These premium catchers simply don’t earn their ADP unless your league set up offers extremely deep positional value.

33. Ichiro Suzuki. Simply, when was the last time Ichiro was worth his preseason ADP? He hasn’t really gotten it all together from a fantasy standpoint since 2007. Either his steals are up over 40, but his batting average is just very good but not amazing, or he posts his .350, but doesn’t run enough. He’s also averaged a mere 81 runs and 45 RBI over the past two seasons. I’d rather scoop Kevin Youkilis for around the same price, or gamble on Nelson Cruz’s health or Justin Upton doing what he was supposed to do last season, and then come back for Andrew McCutchen a round or two later.

42. Rickie Weeks. Weeks made a lot of us feel proud last season—some of us have been preaching for years that he had valuable fantasy seasons in him. However, we must keep our composure—this ADP surely doesn’t look like the keeping of our composure. Weeks achieved great value last season by finding the power stroke many of us thought he had (although maybe not to a 29 HR clip) and by staying on the field for a full season. Keep in mind that Weeks had never stayed healthy for a full season prior to 2010. Additionally, he only swiped 11 bases last year. While that number could pick back up, I wouldn’t count of 29-11 as being the way Weeks consistently reaches the 40 combined steals and home run plateau. Weeks is the type of player for whose potential you should never pay 95 cents on the dollar.

43. Jimmy Rollins. I mentioned Rollins a few items above, but the simple fact is that he hasn’t been an elite fantasy shortstop since 2007. The ugly batting averages and injuries have been piling up, and I just don’t think that at age 32 there’s enough upside to be had here. I’d rather take Jeter (yeah, I know, he’s even older) who is going three picks later. Actually, I think Jeter has the less risk than Rollins and Reyes, and is most accurately priced of the three.

45. Buster Posey. This strikes me as having all the problems of Mauer and McCann with less track record. I’d pass here and look to Geovany Soto, Mike Napoli, Carlos Santana or Miguel Montero several rounds later, where there’s greater profit potential. Posey may indeed deliver, but I’m not eager to find out first hand.

50. Adrian Beltre. I want to dislike this ADP more than I can completely rationalize. So, I will simply say that Beltre’s 2010 and Aramis Ramirez’s 2010 are likely to meet somewhere in the middle, and Ramirez is going more than 50 picks later. Casey McGehee is also a player who is just coming off a season similar to what Beltre has typically done from year to year, and he’s 60 slots cheaper.

70. Paul Konerko. It’s unlikely Konerko will find the fountain of youth for the second straight season. ADP-wise, he’s in something of a no-man’s land. Kendry Morales is going ten picks earlier, and Billy Butler going 15 picks later; I prefer either of these value propositions.

101. Alfonso Soriano. Why is Soriano hovering around the top 100? He’s 35 and doesn’t do anything particularly well anymore. He no longer steals bases. He doesn’t hit for average or score runs. He’s good for 20 or so home runs, a mediocre RBI total, and 30 or so missed games.

107. John Danks. I don’t mean to pick on Danks, because there are plenty of pitchers around this price range who don’t thrill me. The short story on Danks is that his strikeout potential is too low for me at this spot. I’d prefer each of the three pitchers following Danks in ADP ranking, Matt Garza (109), Colby Lewis (113), and Wandy Rodriguez (119). Plus, there’s even more value to be had even deeper into the draft.

111. Kelly Johnson. Once again, I doubt this pick would break a team, but are you really investing any less risk for any more reward in Johnson here than you would be in Ben Zobrist at 131 or Aaron Hill at 171? You can still grab a high quality closer, strong starter or solid outfielder here. I’d consider going aggressively after a top second baseman and then hoping to grab Zobrist or Hill to fill out my middle infield, which would give me great MI trade bait if either of those picks hit.

156. Alex Gonzalez. Perhaps, this is more of a commentary on the 2011 shortstop crop than on Gonzalez himself. It’s not as if the player pool is glimmering with tempting SS options at this point in the draft, but prior to 2010, Alex Gonzalez has been some combination of injured and replacement to below-replacement level since 2005. Unless you’re desperate for some pop at this spot, it’d most likely behoove you to target Ian Desmond or Starlin Castro and hope you stumble onto a breakout. Or, you could play it safer and take Marco Scutaro at 240. Finally, if you’re really just looking for the best shot at 20 HR and 80 RBI, why not roll the dice on Jhonny Peralta who isn’t even being drafted in most conventional 12-team mixed leagues. Meanwhile, at 156 there are still solid starting pitchers to be had.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:04am (4) Comments

Thursday, February 03, 2011

Position battles to watch

Here’s one basic rule that seems self explanatory: The more time you put into preparation for the upcoming season, the greater chance you have for success. I believe that the most critical aspect of this is knowledge of the player pool. Having the most complete and updated depth charts, both major and minor leagues, is one area where you can gain a competitive advantage in your league.

Quick quiz: Who’s the starting first baseman for the Diamondbacks? How about the starting right fielder for the Phillies? Know the second or third baseman for the Indians?

If you can’t answer these questions immediately, or at least formulate some educated guess on how the playing time will be split, then you are at a disadvantage. There are people in your league who will dedicate more time to familiarize themselves with these types of questions and will be able to uncover impact players in the later and reserve rounds of drafts, while others draft purely on name recognition. In national competitions, where you’re drafting in 14- or 15-team leagues with 30-32 man rosters, if you’re not an expert on the inventory of players, it’s as if you’re taking a baseball bat to a shotgun fight.

For those of you paying attention, here’s another insanely useful nugget of information: One of the most important things that you can do in these national formats is to get the maximum number of at-bats each week. Again, this may seem like common sense, but settling for a platoon player in your lineup, or not having proper injury replacements can have a huge negative impact on the final numbers that you end up with.

For example, last season’s NFBC main event champion Stephen Jupinka finished with 7,660 at-bats across 14 offensive positions. That averages out to around 550 at-bats per player in your lineup. When you factor in that this is a league that starts two catchers, and catchers typically average fewer at-bats, you can see the need for a full-time player at each position. Losing at-bats means losing counting stats. Losing counting stats drops you down in four out of the five offensive categories. Simply put, maximize your total at bats and maximize your chances of succeeding.

Here’s a look at a few of the position battles that will go on around spring training this season. Knowing these players and having a good idea on who will win the most playing time will help you identify very valuable players who can be had in the later rounds of your draft.

Who’s the starting first baseman for the Diamondbacks?

Candidates: Juan Miranda, Brandon Allen, Xavier Nady

This is one question that I tackled in my article on offensive sleepers. When general manager Kevin Towers acquired Miranda in November, he said Miranda would get a shot at regular playing time. Showing his faith in Miranda as the offseason went on, Towers passed on the opportunity to sign any of the veteran first basemen on the market. It appears that, as of now, Allen and Nady will compete for the starting job in left field, with the loser becoming the fourth outfielder/backup first baseman. As long as Miranda doesn’t completely fall on his face in the spring, I think the job is his. The upside here would be 500-plus at-bats, .280 average and 20=plus homers. For a guy who can be had after the 20th round, he makes a very intriguing corner infielder or bench option.

Who will start in right field for the Phillies?

Candidates: Domonic Brown, Ben Francisco, Ross Gload

Fantasy baseball enthusiasts are already singing the praises of highly touted prospect Domonic Brown. Bill James has him basically stepping right in and replacing Jayson Werth, hitting .288 with 84 runs, 26 homers, 94 RBI and 28 steals. I think those numbers are absurd—that would make him a top 45 pick in most leagues. I do recognize that Brown has talent, but he didn’t do a whole lot in his 35-game audition in 2010. I think that Brown will spend at least the first couple of weeks of the season continuing his development in Triple-A. This would open the door for Ben Francisco to become a decent fourth or fifth outfield option for the first month of the season. The moral of this story is that if you’re drafting Brown counting on a full season’s worth of at-bats, pick up Francisco later to hedge your bets.

Who will be the starting second/third baseman for the Cleveland Indians?

Candidates: Jayson Nix, Jason Donald, Luis Valbuena, Jason Kipnis

There are really two battles here. It looks like the Indians need to fill both third and second base. Now, it appears that Nix is the front-runner to start at the hot corner. While he’s not overly impressive, he could hit 15-plus homers if given an entire season’s worth of at-bats, and for fantasy purposes he also qualifies at second. The guy to really look for here is Kipnis. If he has a good spring and forces his way onto the roster, he has the ability to be a very cheap 15/15 option, which definitely holds value as an end-game pick and backup middle infielder.

As always, questions and comments are welcomed and appreciated.

Posted by Dave Shovein at 1:59am (7) Comments

2011 top 10 prospects update

With my team-by-team top 10 prospect rundown now complete, it seems like a good time to go back and account for trades.

This year's big offseason winner was Milwaukee, if you're into the whole win-now thing. But the moves severely thinned the Brewers' farm system, which has been accounted for already in my write-up of the Brewers. The first top prospect to be traded was Brett Lawrie, going to Toronto. Toronto also took a hit of its own when the New York Mets plucked Brad Emaus in the Rule 5 draft. But Toronto's Top 10 list looks stout with the addition of Lawrie:

1. Brett Lawrie / 3B/2B/OF
2. Kyle Drabek / SP
3. Deck McGuire / SP
4. J.P. Arencibia / C
5. Chad Jenkins / SP
6. Travis D'Arnaud / C
7. Carlos Perez / C
8. Adieny Hechavarria / SS
9. Zach Stewart / RP/SP
10. David Cooper / 1B

Milwaukee then traded for Zack Greinke, bolstering the game's best farm system even more. Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain give Kansas City two major league-ready talents with upside, while Jake Odorizzi finds his way into the Top 10, at the expense of Aaron Crow, and Jeremy Jeffress is left on the outskirts:

1. Mike Moustakas / 3B
2. Eric Hosmer / 1B/OF
3. Mike Montgomery / SP
4. Wil Myers / C/OF/1B
5. Daniel Duffy / SP
6. John Lamb / SP
7. Jake Odorizzi / SP
8. Christian Colon / SS
9. Chris Dwyer / SP
10. Johnny Giavotella / 2B

Another major trade this offseason sent Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego to Boston, and three of Boston's top 10 prospects, Casey Kelly, Reymond Fuentes and Anthony Rizzo, to San Diego in return. San Diego's new-found riches have been accounted for in my write-up. Boston's system has certainly lost some luster, but the Red Sox have good depth to fill in the cracks:

1. Kolbrin Vitek / 3B/2B/OF
2. Lars Anderson / 1B
3. Jose Iglesias / SS
4. Bryce Brentz / OF
5. Anthony Ranaudo / SP/RP
6. Oscar Tejeda / 2B
7. Stolmy Pimentel / SP
8. Chris Balcom-Miller / SP
9. Drake Britton / SP
10. Josh Reddick / OF

The third big trade this offseason sent Matt Garza to Chicago in exchange for the Cubs' No. 2, 4 and 6 prospects, Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, and Brandon Guyer. Tampa Bay owns the second-best farm system in baseball and it just got better. Guyer couldn't make the Top 10 cut. Alex Torres and Kyle Lobstein were removed to make room for Archer and Lee:

1. Desmond Jennings / OF
2. Jeremy Hellickson / SP
3. Jake McGee / SP/RP
4. Matthew Moore / SP/RP
5. Nick Barnese / SP
6. Chris Archer / SP
7. Justin O'Connor / C/3B/SS/2B
8. Alex Colome / SP/RP
9. Josh Sale / OF
10. Hak-Ju Lee / SS

The Cubs got a little something to add back to their system when they acquired Michael Burgess in the Tom Gorzelanny trade. Even so, Chicago's system took a beating but is certainly not without talent:

1. Brett Jackson / OF
2. Trey McNutt / SP
3. Jay Jackson / SP/RP
4. Hayden Simpson / SP
5. Josh Vitters / 3B
6. Michael Burgess / OF
7. Chris Carpenter / RP/SP
8. DJ LeMahieu / 2B
9. Reggie Golden / OF
10. Austin Reed / SP/RP

Washington wasn't done retooling with that move. The Nats acquired Corey Brown from Oakland in the Josh Willingham trade. That leaves their system looking like this:

1. Bryce Harper / OF
2. Danny Espinosa / 2B/SS
3. Derek Norris / C
4. A.J. Cole / SP
5. Wilson Ramos / C
6. J.P. Ramirez / OF
7. Corey Brown / OF
8. Eury Perez / OF
9. Sammy Solis / SP
10. Chris Marrero / 1B

And that leaves Oakland's system:

1. Michael Choice / OF
2. Grant Green / SS
3. Chris Carter / 1B/OF
4. Jemile Weeks / 2B
5. Ian Krol / SP
6. Max Stassi / C
7. Josh Donaldson / C
8. Adrian Cardenas / 2B
9. Michael Taylor / OF
10. Eric Sogard / 2B

Did I forget anything?

Posted by Matt Hagen at 2:07am (9) Comments

Friday, February 04, 2011

Evaluating xWHIP

The writer is xWHIP 2.0 Calculator co-collaborator and creator of Simple/Quick xWHIP. You can download the xWHIP 2.0 Calculator (requires Excel or Open Office) by clicking here.

About six months ago, I began tinkering with the concept of predicting WHIP. After all, WHIP is one of the most widely used indicators of pitcher skill, and in most fantasy leagues, it's a category. Additionally, the components should, in theory, be relatively easy to predict. Walk rate tends to remain consistent from year to year, and the number of hits a pitcher allow should regress, much like a pitcher's BABIP.

I set about predicting WHIP by regressing hits against various standards. While I was looking at the numbers, I noticed an interesting trend: WHIP correlated extremely strongly with K/BB ratio. I was interested in turning correlation into something useful for predicting WHIP, but I wasn't sure how to. So, I took the extremely scientific (sarcasm) path of using Excel to generate the trend line equation and then worked backwards from that.

I was left with the following equation: 1.54 - .512K = xH/IP . I rounded out the numbers, threw bases on balls into the mix, and was left with the following: 1.5 + (BB - .5K)/IP = xWHIP

This correlated extremely strongly with career WHIP, with an R-squared and R value of .6758 and .822 , respectively. However, it consistently estimated WHIP far higher than the actual results. So despite the strong correlation, the accuracy wasn't quite there. I tinkered with the variables involved and tried to standardize it based on factors such as league hits/out, and was left with the following formula, which worked well and was quite accurate. But I didn't have any explanation for why it worked. "It just works" was my motto:

1.375 + (BB - .5K)/IP = xWHIP

I sat on this formula for awhile until I met another stat-head, Jeff Gross, who had independently come up with the idea of xWHIP. However, he was using a far more scientific means of generating xWHIP, regressing against real game data averages for various events: ground balls, fly balls, pop-ups, line drives, etc. All of these tend to produce outs at a specific rate that remains constant from year to year. So if you have the number of batted ball types a pitcher allows, you should be able to predict the number of hits he will allow and thus predict his WHIP.

We worked together with the formula for expected hits, and came up with an additional statistic: expected outs, which would be used in place of innings pitched. While Jeff worked on further refining the formula, I reexamined the "Simple xWHIP" formula.

Using Jeff's formula, I plugged in the statistics of an "average" pitcher, one who throws an average number of ground balls, fly balls, line drives, and pop-ups. The only two variables I left unknown were strikeouts and walks. After simplifying the equation, I was left with the following: 1.3747 + (BB - .496*K)/IP. Since the goal is simplicity, and these numbers are close enough, we can round up and get exactly what I got before:

1.375 + (BB - .5K)/IP = xWHIP

Finally there was a valid basis for my formula that "just worked." After discovering that, I went to work at checking the statistical validity of both xWHIP (using the expected innings formula, not actual innings pitcher) and "Simple xWHIP." I did two calculations for each year: predictive and evaluative. Evaluative is simply comparing 2010 xWHIP vs. 2010 WHIP. Predictive is taking a pitcher's career xWHIP until a given year and using that to predict that year's WHIP.

The results were as follows:

As you can see, xWHIP does a pretty good job as both a predictive and evaluative stat. Stat-heads can look at the R^2 value. For the lay person, just look at "Accuracy." What that says is, if you picked a pitcher at random, his xWHIP would be, on average, that much higher or lower than his real WHIP.

As you can also see, xWHIP and "Simple xWHIP" are remarkably similar in their predictive and evaluative power. Full xWHIP is clearly the better choice when you have all the data in front of you, and it will more accurately reflect the abilities of extreme groundball and flyball pitchers. But, when it comes to simplicity, you can't beat Simple xWHIP. In many cases, you don't even need a calculator to figure it out.

So, using Simple xWHIP, let's examine pitchers in 2010. First, we'll look at the 10 pitchers whose xWHIP was significantly higher or significantly lower than their WHIP.

This gives a pretty good indication of people to steer clear of. Most of these are pretty obvious, but Matt Cain and Ubaldo Jiminez both strike me as pitchers a lot of people would overpay for.

On the flip side, some interesting names top the list of people poised for a bounce-back year. Of course, some of these you still want to avoid like the plague—a .13 dropoff from a 1.56 WHIP is still pretty bad. I'm looking at you, Paul Maholm.

Now, let's look at the people with the best WHIP, and what you can expect from them next year:

Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver, Roy Halladay, Mat Latos, Josh Johnson, Shaun Marcum and Justin Verlander are all poised to remain at or below a 1.2 WHIP, and you should pay face value for them. A few guys, like Adam Wainwright, Ted Lilly and Roy Oswalt should still be high-end WHIP pitchers, but be aware that they pitched far beyond their abilities last season.

Finally, let's take a look at the pitchers with the best xWHIP and see if we can find any high value pickups.

Most of the pitchers with very low xWHIP also had very low WHIP, so you will have a hard time getting them for a good value. James Shields, Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano seem to represent the best values here. Dan Haren and Tim Lincecum are good values in theory, but more than likely you will see people pick them up simply because they have the marquee name, so you may still have to overpay to grab them.

So there you have it. xWHIP and Simple xWHIP. Simple xWHIP, like FIP, is easy to calculate, yet still very powerful. xWHIP is a bit more complex, but accounts for much more and will give you a more accurate view of any specific pitcher, especially an extreme groundball or flyball pitcher.

Posted by Martin Alex Hambrick at 3:02am (12) Comments

Breaking down the mock draft: rounds 10-12

On Sunday, Jan. 16, 12 baseball analysts from around the web mock snake-drafted fantasy baseball team for 2011.

They assumed 25-player rosters, using the standard 5x5 categories and a 1,500 innings-pitched limit. Using Mock Draft Central, teams were constructed with three starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, four "generic" pitchers (starter or reliever), three bench players, five outfielders and one of each of catcher, first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, middle infielder and corner infielder.

We have broken this draft into four parts—rounds 1-6, 7-12, 13-19 and 20-25—and over the next four weeks, each of the participants to the draft will provide insight into each of their picks. All preseason projections below are courtesy of the Bill James projections available on Fangraphs.com. Please post comments below.

Other round analysis: Rounds 1-3 || Rounds 4-6

Those who wish to follow the rounds in which players were selected by their respective owners should check out Mock Draft Central (a free Mock Draft Central account will be required to view this).

Round 10

Pick No. 1 (109 overall): Torii Hunter.
Preseason projection: .272 AVG, 23 HR, 11 SB, 81 R, 92 RBI, 622 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys

This is a pick most mock drafters hate; the 36-year old Hunter doesn’t exactly scream “upside,” to the point where you can pretty much guarantee a dip in average and stolen bases. We saw this in the second half of last season, when he batted .261 compared to .298 over the first half. He also had trouble against lefties, batting just .236 against them. Most troubling is that he was caught stealing 12 times compared to only nine successes, which all but eliminates him as a decent stolen base option anymore. Still, the counting stats and home runs have remained strong, which is why I took him as my third outfielder. If we were to actually play this league out, I would let Hunter get off to a strong start and try to sell him to an owner who, well, didn’t read his own mock draft’s analysis.

Pick No. 2 (110 overall) Aaron Hill
Preseason projection: .260 AVG, 22 HR, 3 SB, 76 R, 73 RBI, 572 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

Finally, a pick I can be proud of. Hill had a disappointing last season but it seems likely his batting average will regress most of the way back to the .260s as his BABIP rises from BABIP Hell (yes, it exists). Like all Blue Jays these days, Hill excels at hitting bombs and easily projects for mid-20s homers. He might not be Dan Uggla, but in 2011 I think Hill can be Uggla Lite and I'll take that at pick 110.

Pick No. 3 (111 overall): Chris Young
Preseason projection: .246 AVG, 25 HR, 22 SB, 86 R, 78 RBI, 637 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

In the middle rounds of a mixed snake, few things beat a 30-30 upside combo with a terrific home park and a blossoming batting eye. Okay, maybe all that with a useful batting average would be better. I'm not counting on Young repeating his clip, but as counting category filler, you can't go wrong with him.

It's hard to doubt an established skill set. Sometimes you must overlook batting average poison for the other gems a commodity offers. I'll admit, my clip is looking weak, but at this point and with this value of a power-speed profile, I'll take my chances that a frequently fluctuating offensive category moves in my favor. Even if he sustains last year's average—bully.

Pick No. 4 (112 overall) Desmond Jennings
Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 6 HR, 54 SB, 92 R, 50 RBI, 581 PA
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

This pick was somewhat of a reach when I made it, and now that the Rays have signed Johnny Damon, which may shift Jennings’ role with the Rays to their Triple-A affiliate (Durham) to begin the season, it's even more so. On the positive, I strongly like Jennings as a young Carl Crawford-type with less power and more health, though scouts claim that Jennings has power upside. If given a full season, I believe he would be .290 capable with 10 home runs and 50+ stolen base potential. That would make him an elite Juan Pierre type, a stolen base machine who will not hurt you in the power department (though I think Jennings’ prospective RBI totals would be limited).

On the negative, however, I was planning to draft Gordon Beckham or Aaron Hill to fill out my middle infield slot, but both were drafted by other teams in the six picks following my Sandoval selection. Perhaps I panicked slightly and should have drafted Mike Napoli (which I would do if given a second chance, in light of his trade to the Blue Jays), but Jennings was the best overall hitter left on the board and with three elite pitchers already on my roster, I did not particularly need a fourth. Jennings may not have been the best pick, but I was not overwhelmed by anyone else available and reached for upside rather than settle with a lower-tiered player (e.g., Shane Victorino or Vernon Wells).

Pick No. 5 (113 overall) Shane Victorino
Preseason projection: .279 AVG, 16 HR, 30 SB, 97 R, 66 RBI, 664 PA
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

Okay, he batted .259 last year and scored only 85 runs after having scored 102 in each of the last two seasons. His strikeout rate was up a bit last year, but not enough to explain his .259 average when compared to an average above .290 in each of the last two seasons either. The average should improve in 2011 and hover around .280 at least. Many people overlook the career high in homers and RBI coupled with nine more steals than a year ago. Victorino will accumulate stats one way or another in an aging, yet still powerful Phillies lineup and is a great value in the 10th round.

Pick No. 6 (114 overall): Carlos Marmol.
Preseason projection: 6 W, 42 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 105 K, 83 IP
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times

I think his stuff is so nasty that it will always lend itself to be called a ball. His K/9 ability is stellar and can almost act like another starting pitcher's strikeout contribution. I can deal with the WHIP issues as long as he continues to strand runners, strike out batters, and save ball games. He is my ace closer, and I’m pretty comfortable with that.

Pick No. 7 (115 overall): Ian Desmond
Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 13 HR, 21 SB, 69 R, 66 RBI, 599 PA
Drafted by: Zach Sanders ,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

I have Desmond projected for a worse line than James does (big surprise), so this pick wasn’t a great value. However, I was worried that I could run out of good shortstop options before my next pick, a fear that may have realized since Starlin Castro was taken just two picks after Desmond. Desmond may not play for a great team, but he’s an up-and-comer who has good potential in non-OBP leagues. I’m not the biggest fan in the world, but Desmond felt like he had enough upside for this selection.

Pick No. 8 (116 overall): Nick Markakis
Preseason projection: .299 AVG, 19 HR, 7 SB, 95 R, 96 RBI, 687 PA
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner

While the system is listing Carlos Lee at outfield, I’m thinking of him more as a corner infielder, which means I still have a few outfield picks to make. Two guys I really like, Chris Young and Shane Victorino, were taken just ahead of my pick. I’m looking for a reliable pick with some upside. There are a few speed guys still out there, notably Michael Bourn, and I don’t have any big stolen base guys yet other than possibly Jose Reyes—but I prefer to use middle infielders rather than outfielders for speed, since I’m not going to get other category contributions from a middle infielder at this point in the draft.

I am looking at Markakis, Corey Hart,Delmon Young, Nick Swisher and Adam Jones as possible picks. My first instinct is Hart, who was a monster last year, but a quick check reminds me that he dropped off badly in the second half and he strikes out a lot. His BABIP was about 30 points higher than it had ever been in the past. Swisher is inconsistent. Young has upside, but no plate discipline. Jones hasn’t actually done it yet, and I have a rule about not extrapolating potential beyond what a player has ever actually done.

That leaves Markakis. He had a very disappointing season last year, but is a disciplined, professional hitter. The Orioles have upgraded their lineup this year, so he should have more RBI opportunities. I think manager Buck Showalter gets a lot out of him. Markakis is a good example of a guy who has done it before, and there’s no reason to think he can’t do it again. I think people tend to overweight the prior season’s performance; every player has variation in his career. Who knows, maybe Markakis ate too many hot dogs and drank too much soda pop, and that explains his bad last year. Markakis is quietly effective, and I figure he gets back to the 90/100 level in runs and RBIs, with around a .300 batting average. If he hits 25+ homers, it’s a bonus

Pick No. 9 (117 overall): Kelly Johnson
Preseason prediction: .286 AVG, 19 HR, 10 SB, 83 R, 65 RBI, 589 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches

There's a certain point in every baseball draft where you look at your team and who's available and you think, "Wow, I can wait a round or two and still get the players I want." I hit that point in the draft right about now. I probably should have drafted a closer but the elite closers run had gone a round or two earlier and at that point in the draft (when the closer run occurred) I needed to fill positions more than get the most fungible position in the game. Plus I ended up getting a closer whom I think is elite and two others guys who will get me saves and don't seem likely to lose their jobs. I could have gotten a starting pitcher, but this league didn't seem to value starting pitching and because of the way Mock Draft Central's poor rankings were set up, there seemed to be great, solid and consistent guys available even if a starting pitcher run came.

So in the end I drafted for depth. While at this point I didn't have a catcher (and yet still got the catcher I wanted two rounds later), I had a full infielder, a corner infielder two outfielders and two elite starting pitchers. So I went after my middle infield spot and picked the best guy on the board. After taking Asdrubal Cabrera I went only after second basemen, so I picked Kelly Johnson.

Pick No. 10 (118 overall): Starlin Castro
Preseason projection: .310 AVG, 4 HR, 15 SB, 68 R, 60 RBI, 604 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

Much to my surprise, I was able to snag one of my fallback shortstop options in Castro. I would have preferred Ian Desmond, who has better raw overall upside this season than Castro, but couldn't complain with how far I had to go to get some cover at shortstop. Castro is a more polished product than Desmond, at least in terms of his plate discipline, which makes him a decent bet for a .280-290 average. His stolen base upside is a bit limited, given that his success rate for steals is far from impressive. Nonetheless, a 10th-round pick to take a punt on Castro exceeding a .280-290 BA, 20 steals line isn't too bad a price to pay.

Pick No. 11 (119): Delmon Young
Preseason projection: .306 AVG, 19 HR, 8 SB, 77 R, 93 RBI, 566 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

After I neglected the outfield with my first six picks, Delmon Young became my third outfielder selected with my top-10 picks. It's not hard to see why fantasy owners glance at Young's 2010, “breakout” with a questioning eye after years of watching him underachieve on his vast raw talent. A great deal of his 2010 value lay in his large RBI total, which is largely a product of a player's lineup, not his own skill. That said, much of the Twins lineup is back for the 2011 season. The return of Justin Morneau likely means Young will be lower in the order, but also means many of the same high on-base faces will be out on the bases for him to drive in this season.

As is the case with most of my last few selections, Young is a player I view as having untapped upside. Historically a worm burner, he has seen his flyball rate rise each of the last two seasons from an embarrassingly low 27.8 percent rate in 2008 to a much more acceptable 39.8 percent rate in 2010. As one would expect, as his flyball rate has increased, his ISO has trended upward as well. With a plus power tool, and one year closer to his peak power years, Young's new-found loft should yield more home runs. Projecting anything more than 25 would be foolish, but 20-25 homers is a more than reasonable expectation in 2011, along with a .290-plus batting average and solid run and RBI totals, making him a fantastic third outfielder. And he's another option to help prop up my batting average if a low average solid contributor becomes a value later in the draft.

Pick No. 12 (120 overall): Corey Hart
Preseason projection: .272 AVG, 24 HR, 11 SB, 86 R, 88 RBI, 603 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times

Now my focus is on shoring up my outfield. With many solid options already picked up, I figured Hart is still good for some decent numbers among the relevant categories. I understand that he comes with some considerable risk since 43 percent of his home runs last season qualified as “just enough,” according to HitTracker. But I’m expecting some special things to happen in Milwaukee this season, and last season he showed above-average skills in isolated power (.242) so I’m hoping some of those “just enoughs” could be dismissed as small sample noise. Putting it another way, if Hart can hit numbers close to his preseason projection, I’ll be happy.

Round 11

Pick No. 1 (121 overall): Vernon Wells
Preseason projection: .269 AVG, 25 HR, 7 SB, 81 R, 85 RBI, 635 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times

Be warned, when I made this pick Vernon Wells was still a member of the Blue Jays and any thoughts about some other team trading for him and his gargantuan contract just seemed ridiculous. I understand that Wells does have some heavy home/road splits, .844 OPS in Toronto vs. .767 on the road. I know I’m picking Wells after a bounce back-season and at the age of 32, there will be some degree of risk. But at this point I think he should have enough in the tank to post numbers similar to his projection.

Pick No. 2 (122 overall): Ryan Dempster
Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.83 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 192 K, 214 IP
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

Twenty-five 25 picks after selecting Chad Billingsley, I selected a player I view as his near clone. Dempster is an innings horse, having thrown in excess of 200 each season since returning to starting in 2008. For a guy with a 8.69 K/9 rate in 2010 and a mark above 8.00 K/9 in two of his three seasons since his return from the bullpen, that means quite the haul in strikeouts when coupled with his high inning pitched totals at pick 122. What he lacks for in upside, he makes up for in consistency (3.74 xFIP in 2008, 3.81 xFIP in 2009 and 3.84 xFIP in 2010) making him an ideal third starter for my squad. With a 1-2-3 of Cole Hamels-Billingsley-Dempster in place, my team had a solid foundation in strikeouts, which allowed me some freedom later on in the draft should a pitcher with a less than ideal strikeout rate, but otherwise solid peripherals, become a steal.

Pick No. 3 (123 overall): Roy Oswalt
Preseason projection: 16 W, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 176 K, 221 IP
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

After taking Cliff Lee and Ubaldo Jimenez as my first two pitchers, I might have concentrated one pick too many on plugging holes in my offense. Oswalt would have been my ideal No. 4 starter, but I was delighted to scoop him up for a more than reasonable value. While Oswalt is bound for some correction, a season removed from his best statistical campaign (2.76 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .253 BABIP), I could live with Bill James' preseason projection at an 11th-round discount. The former Astros ace can be relied on for 200+ efficient innings and is still a top-20 caliber starter.

Pick No. 4 (124 overall): Ben Zobrist
Preseason prediction: .269 AVG, 13 HR, 16 SB, 66 R, 61 RBI, 503 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches

As I said for the round earlier, I was at a point where I was looking for depth and I still had my screen set on second basemen, so I again picked the best one available.

However, the main reason I selected Zorilla was because of his multiple position eligibility. Now, just because Zobrist is available to play multiple positions means nothing. Heck, John McDonald has multiple position eligibility and no one should ever draft him. But the fact that I think Zobrist will win what Mr. Gross calls "The Wiggy Award" (named after the Swiss Army Knife himself,Ty Wigginton) made me want to draft Zobrist.

Pick No. 5 (125 overall): Vladamir Guerrero
Preseason projection: 294 AVG, 22 HR, 4 SB, 73 R, 75 RBI, 555 PA
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner

I blew it.

Carlos Marmol has been selected, and there are still a few strong closers left. I am thinking big, thinking about taking Francisco Rodriguez. If not K-Rod, I can still take John Axford or Neftali Feliz, who I love, but who, like Axford, lacks a multi-year track record.

K-Rod is a little like Jonathan Papelbon, huge upside with some risk. He’s been tainted by his personal behavior, but hey, if he can still pitch, that’s Fred Wilpon’s problem, not mine. So I start doing some real-time research on K-Rod. And on Feliz. And on K-Rod again. I check back and see I have 23 seconds to pick, time to do one more look at Axford. I think I’ve left myself time, but when I go to click K-Rod, it’s too late—the system has defaulted Vlad to me.

Yuck. Glad it’s a mock.

Unlike Carlos Lee, I think Vlad is pretty much done. He had a great first half of the year in Texas, but he really slowed down in the second half (slugging .426 vs. .554), and when I watched him he struggled. Playoffs too. He’s listed as a DH, and I’m not even sure he’s position eligible, so I’ve glommed up my roster flexibility with a guy who has very little upside. Well, I figure, it could be worse. Vlad at least has a pedigree. I think the projections will end up being right on, although I think the batting average may dip down into the .280s or even high .270s. I can even envision him ending the year on the bench. Well, there’s a lesson—I should have just taken K-Rod and not worried about the research.

Pick No. 6 (126 overall): Shaun Marcum
Preseason projection: 203 IP, 12 W, 3.77 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 168 K
Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

Moving out of the AL East and into the NL Central is dandy, but getting to move into a better ballpark is just as nice. Marcum has great stuff, and with a move to a World Series competitor in the NL, he should be able to win at least 15 games in 2011. It may be pushing it, but Marcum may even be able to strike out a batter an inning. The Brewers' defense won’t help him any, but neither his ERA or WHIP should be killed because of it.

Pick No. 7 (127 overall): Adam Lind.
Preseason projection: .281 AVG, 26 HR, 1 SB, 72 R, 92 RBI, 595 PA
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times

Hitters were becoming scarce in Round 11. I became a little frustrated that I didn’t do a better job of securing categories earlier. Lind’s 2009 season seems like it could be an outlier. An increase in batting average will be tied to his adjustments to lefthanders. Bill James is quite optimistic with the batting average, but the home runs and RBIs are legit.

Pick No. 8 (128 overall): Rafael Furcal
Preseason projection: .278 AVG, 10 HR, 20 SB, 83 R, 46 RBI, 564 PA
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

There’s nothing sexy about this pick, but Furcal was on pace for one of his better seasons last year before getting hurt. A career .286 hitter, he was hitting .303 and had already stolen 22 bases in only 383 at-bats. I’d take those numbers this year in a full season of health while he plays for a contract. He could approach 100 runs scored as well if he were to lead off for the Dodgers. With shortstop such a weak position, I couldn’t pass him up here.

Pick No. 9 (129 overall) Carlos Pena
Preseason projection: .228 AVG, 30 HR, 3 SB, 73 R, 86 RBI, 553 PA
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

It has been two seasons since Pena mustered a batting average north of .230, but I have a lot of faith that Wrigley Field and the NL Central will be kind to Pena. Though his heavy flyball tendencies and ever-advancing age (33 this year) preclude his prospects of sustaining an elite BABIP (career .279 mark), there is no logical way that Pena continues to post a BABIP south of Adam Dunn’s career batting average for the third straight season. In fact, Pena’s 2010 xBABIP was a robust .322, which would peg his expected batting average for last season at .258.

No one doubts Pena’s power, and the move from Tropicana Field (92 home run index for LHB) to Wrigley Field (120 home run index for left-handed batters) should at least offset the effects of aging and guarantee a return to 30+ home run form for Pena, assuming health. In light of my batting average-heavy team already drafted, I felt that I could roster a bit of batting average risk to boost my team’s home run bottom line. Oh, and Pena is also known to steal a base here and there. Paul Konerko, like most first basemen, can’t say that.

Pick No. 10 (130 overall): Wandy Rodriguez
Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 184 K, 206 IP
Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL

Not going to lie: Probably should've taken Brett Anderson here. The whispers of "more Ks from your No. 2 starter" got to me. Rodriguez probably had the better chance of making it past the short turn than the exciting Anderson.

Oh well. I'm stuck with a pitcher who many left for dead in the first half last year but wound up waving his magic Wandy—there it is—for a terrific post-break performance, thanks to a groundball boost and a change-up rediscovery. Even if his curveball doesn't come back as fast, he's one of the few soft-tossing arms I trust to keep up his K/9 at this draft segment.

Pick No. 11 (131 overall) Brett Anderson
Preseason projection: 10 W, 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 140 K, 171 IP
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

In a real draft I will have a very difficult time taking Anderson. In terms of skill, I believe he is superior to the pitchers taken after him. However, he represents a high injury risk and likely won't surpass 175 innings even if he stays relatively healthy. He won't rack up wins or strikeouts at an elite rate, so there is little upside to this pick. There are plenty of pitchers; you'll be more comfortable with someone else.

Pick No. 12 (132 overall): Mike Aviles.
Preseason projection: .287 AVG, 11 HR, 12 SB, 74 R, 58 RBI, 584 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys

This could be a bit of a reach, but I have middle and corner infield spots to take care of and Aviles fills that need nicely; he's someone I am high on this season. After a breakout 2008 campaign, he lost his 2009 to Tommy John surgery but came back strong last year, batting .304 and swiping 14 bags over 448 plate appearances. He will enter the year as the Kansas City Royals' every day second baseman and bat in the top two spots in the order. His uniform doesn’t exactly give him tons of upside in runs and RBIs, but you can be assured of double-digit home runs and stolen bases, and at least close to a .300 batting average. Also worth noting are improvements in strikeout and walk rates, coming from a six-point improvement in contact percentage and fewer swinging strikes. That indicates he’s seeing the ball better as he grows accustomed to major league pitching entering what should be his first season of 550+ plate appearances.

Round 12

Pick No. 1 (133 overall): Miguel Montero.
Preseason Projection: .273 AVG, 14 HR, 0 SB, 51 R, 58 RBI, 444 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys

I always try to target middle-tier catchers, trying to not overpay for a position with such limited playing time and upside. My two major targets this year are Montero and Matt Wieters. If I could do it again, I might take Wieters as more of a post-hype sleeper, but both provide similar power and average potential, so I am happy with the pick.

Much of Montero’s follow up to a 16-homer, .294 average 2009 was marred by an injury in just the fifth game of the season, which cost him basically the first two months of 2010. He never really put it together after that, batting just .256 but did smack nine dingers anyway. It’s possible things would have been different if he could get those two months back, but whether because of the injury or not, he did struggle with his swing. He whiffed too often and got under the ball too much when he did make contact, indicated by a nearly seven percent increase in his fly ball percentage. I hope that now that he is fully healed he can turn more of those pop-ups into home runs, as he did in 2009. The more I analyze my offense, the more the theme seems to be “rebound from injury.”

Pick No. 2 (134 overall) Neftali Feliz
Preseason projection: 39 SV, 2.66 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 75 K, 71 IP
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

The fact that I nabbed Feliz as the seventh closer off the board is quite amazing to me in hindsight. He is easily a top-five closer and probably belongs in the top three. I was able to get him in round 12. You won't.

Pick No. 3 (135 overall): Josh Beckett
Preseason projection: 10 W, 3.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 155 K, 168 IP
Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL

A risk, but not a costly one. Beckett's FIP (4.54) and xFIP (4.01) help show he should've had a better year. Yeah, yeah, another injury surfaced: more back problems, naturally. His velocity and location have been off, but his K/9 and BB/9 haven't faltered. That newfangled cutter he tried wasn't working; good chance he either ditches it or refines it.

His offseason workouts? Motivated. His command? Still worthy of an investment. Strand rate and BABIP corrections? Possible with full health and rejuvenated stuff. Mr. James is selling Beckett short some Ws and Ks. Remember his 2007 rebound year? He's a No. 3 on my squad with a hint of No. 1 potential via a return to a top-notch 2009. It's not '07, but it's enough profit potential to roll the dice.

Pick No. 4 (136 overall) Colby Lewis
Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.85 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 178 K, 208 IP
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

With pitchers flying off the board since I drafted Max Scherzer in the eighth round, I was shocked to see Colby Lewis’ name still on the board. I understand how and why Lewis was undervalued heading into 2010, but there is little reason he should be equally undervalued for 2011. Last season, Lewis touted a 3.72 ERA, a sub-1.20 WHIP, a strikeout rate greater than 23 percent (8.78 K/9), a strong swinging strike rate (9.5 percent), and a 2.91 BB/9.

If there is one knock on Lewis, it is that he is a flyball pitcher who pitches in an offense-inflating environment. (The Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has a three-year, +18 percent home run index and league-leading +11 percent run scored index). However, Lewis induces a healthy rate of infield fly balls (13.7 percent compared to a 9.5 percent major league average) in place of ground balls and his peripherals (3.52 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, 3.52 tERA) all support the claim of sustainable success. Lewis is an elite pitcher worth having. I debated taking Jeremy Hellickson with my pick, but Lewis is likely to garner more innings, which should mean better strikeout and win totals.

Pick No. 5 (137 overall) Trevor Cahill
Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 129 K, 218 IP
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

I believe Cahill was sitting atop the queue since the eighth round. I felt it was a longer tenure than he deserved. The 22-year-old mowed down the competition after a 2009 to forget. It appears as if the A's were intelligent enough (and had the luxury) to let Cahill work through his problems as a rookie. He came on strong as a sophomore. His 2.97 ERA and 1.10 WHIP didn't go unnoticed and a 2.94 first half and 3.04 second half show that this wasn't a fluke. Because he doesn't strike many batters out (only 118), it's natural to think his ERA will rise in 2011. That may be the case, as two consecutive years of a sub 3.00 ERA is a pretty tough task. Cahill struck out more than a batter per inning in the minors, which leaves us hoping he can improve his K/9 ratio in 2011. Based on his drastic improvement from 2009 to 2010, we consider him a safe pick heading into 2011.

Pick No. 6 (138 overall): Michael Bourn.
Preseason projection: .267 AVG, 4 HR, 51 SB, 89 R, 38 RBI, 632 PA
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times

At this point you know what to expect from Bourn. He’s as predictable as a car chase scene in a "Bourne Identity" movie. I’d like to believe he’ll offer more batting average than he did in 2010, but let’s be real: This pick was to chip at steals and runs. If he gains batting average, that would just be icing on the cake.

Pick No. 7 (139 overall): Aubrey Huff
Preseason projection: .269 AVG, 19 HR, 3 SB, 68 R, 75 RBI, 548 PA
Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

Sure, Huff is old (35 this year). And yeah, he’s coming off something of a career year. But I desperately needed a first baseman, and because of the way my roster was shaping up, I decided that his record was worth taking a chance on. I’d like to think that 2009 was a complete fluke, and not 2010, but I’m having a hard time convincing myself of that. I’m just hoping Huff can hit 20 homers with an average around .280; otherwise, this pick was a waste.

Pick No. 8 (140 overall): Chone Figgins
Preseason projection: .281 AVG, 2 HR, 41 SB, 87 R, 70 RBI, 680 PA
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner

This pick was pretty much dictated by my roster at this point. I needed a second baseman, and I needed stolen bases, and I get both with Figgins. I think the projections on him are crazy—if Figgins hits over .270 and ends up with 60 RBIs I would be ecstatic. I’ve drafted him exclusively for steals. My hope is that Seattle moves him back to third base (where he is more comfortable), both to give me position flexibility, and because I think his offensive numbers will improve. I can also hope that whatever the mess was in Seattle last season has now been cleaned up, and that the players really play for Eric Wedge

One interesting thing about Figgins is that while he steals a lot of bases, he is actually not a very good base stealer. He is successful about two-thirds of the time, and that probably means his baserunning hurts his club more than he helps it. On the other hand, a glance at Seattle’s lineup suggests the Mariners are going to have to send Figgins a lot to manufacture runs, assuming he can get himself on base. I’ve watched him pretty closely through the years, and I also don’t think he is a particularly adept batter. Let’s say this: His career average is .287. That means in games I was not watching, he must have hit about .380.

Pick No. 9 (141 overall): Mike Napoli
Preseason projection: .246 AVG, 24 HR, 4 SB, 62 R, 66 RBI, 460 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches

Four catchers have been top wight on ESPN's player rater for the past two years. Three of them are Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, and Brian McCann. Can you guess the fourth? Right! It's Mike Napoli. Catcher is like the tight end in football: They (overall) produce the least amount of fantasy points for their position and they're a dime a dozen in the waiver wire. At this point in the draft, why not take consistency? I know Napoli's going to have power and really nothing else, but he's a freaking catcher, so who cares?

Pick No. 10 (142 overall): Matt Wieters
Preseason projection: .288 AVG, 16 HR, 0 SB, 55 R, 74 RBI, 536 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

In single catcher leagues, I tend to address my catcher position in the middle rounds at earliest. Last season, I targeted Napoli in all of my drafts at this stage; this time I happened to be one pick short of nabbing him. He provides Brian McCann type power (sans the average) for a discount. This season, I'm probably all in on Matt Wieters this late in drafts, as his disappointing second year has led him to be a bit undervalued. Generally, a high BABIP hitter, Wieters hit for just a .287 BABIP while his plate discipline improved some (higher walk rate, lower strikeout rate). Generating better contact will be key for Wieters to take the next step.

Pick No. 11 (143 overall): Jeremy Hellickson
Preseason projection: 11 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 170 K, 161
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

I'll concede that this may be a reach for the man they call Hellboy. Hellickson's extreme flyball nature is almost certainly going to result in some gopher balls in the ever-challenging American League East, and that's not even taking into account the normal bumps in the road a pitcher with just 36.1 major league innings pitched should be expected to suffer through. All that said, the upside and talent of the Tampa Bay Rays' top prospect according to The 2011 Baseball America Prospect Handbook proved too much to pass up as my No. 4 starter.

In Triple-A last year, Hellickson had a 2.45 ERA (2.73 FIP) with a 9.41 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, and 3.51 K/BB in 117.2 innings. As a starter in the majors last year he threw another 26.1 innings in which he more than held his own, posting a 8.54 K/9, 1.37 BB/9 and an astounding 6.25 K/BB while compiling a 3.41 xFIP. With the ability to limit free passes and rack up strikeouts, Hellickson should be spared a great deal of damage when he gives up the inevitable home runs his high flyball approach will cede. Expecting much more than the 161 innings James projects for Hellickson will lead to disappointment, but 160 innings of Hellickson and a few spot starts from freely available talent on the waiver wire should produce a better final line then selecting one of the other pitchers available at this point.

Pick No. 12 (144 overall): Nick Swisher
Preseason projection: .257 AVG, 27 HR, 1 SB, 87 R, 83 RBI, 614 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times

For my fourth outfield spot, I wanted to grab someone with guaranteed playing time (I can gamble on Peter Bourjos, Dexter Fowler and Domonic Brown later). I know I’m grabbing someone who is bound to experience some regression in his batting average, but power and run-producing skills like this probably won’t be available if I don’t grab it now.

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 4:50am (6) Comments

Breaking down the mock draft: Rounds 7-9

On Sunday, Jan. 16, 12 baseball analysts from around the web mock snake-drafted fantasy baseball team for 2011.

They assumed 25-player rosters, using the standard 5x5 categories and a 1,500 innings-pitched limit. Using Mock Draft Central, teams were constructed with three starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, four "generic" pitchers (starter or reliever), three bench players, five outfielders and one of each of catcher, first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, middle infielder and corner infielder.

We have broken this draft into four parts—rounds 1-6, 7-12, 13-19 and 20-25—and over the coming weeks, each of the participants to the draft will provide insight into each of their picks. All preseason projections below are courtesy of the Bill James projections available on Fangraphs.com. Please post comments below.

Other round analysis: Rounds 1-3 || Rounds 4-6

Those who wish to follow the rounds in which players were selected by their respective owners should check out Mock Draft Central (a free Mock Draft Central account will be required to view this).

Round 7

Pick No. 1 (73 overall): Paul Konerko
Preseason projection: .273 AVG, 32 HR, 0 SB, 78 R, 96 RBI, 626 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times

Seeing there was a shortage of first basemen (and not wanting to get stuck having to depend on Billy Butler or Carlos Pena as my starter), I grabbed what I figured to be the best available. Last season, Konerko was awesome, fantasy-wise, hitting .312/39/111 with 89 runs. Outside a lousy May, he was very consistent in 2010 but he will be 35 next month and coming off a near career season does scream regression. His isolated power score has remained fairly high through his 30s, not counting 2008 when he battled thumb and knee injuries, so I’m not too worried about the HR/RBI categories but I’d be a fool to expect a batting average anywhere near his ’10 season.

Pick No. 2 (74 overall): Jay Bruce
Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 31 HR, 7 SB, 87 R, 83 RBI, 598 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

With my seventh-round pick it was time to nab my first outfielder, in fact maybe overdue time, considering the league format calls for five. Jay Bruce was the clear selection for me at this pick. Perhaps I'm a bit optimistic in my ranking of him, but I could see him producing like a top 10-15 outfielder thanks to his plus-power and ability to hit for a useful average and even chip in a handful of stolen bases.

It would be easy to look at Bruce's 2010 season and think I'm delusional for such lofty expectations in 2011, but don't forget he suffered a broken wrist during the summer of 2009. It's often suggested that players who suffer wrist injuries take a full year to regain power, and while sometimes it can be detrimental to blindly follow general thinking, the power flurry Bruce displayed to end his 2010 campaign would lend some credence to the year recovery time in his case. From August through the end of the season, he ripped 15 home runs in just 153 plate appearances, a staggering display of pop, though one he almost certainly couldn't keep up for the duration of a season. The 31 home runs Bill James projects Bruce to hit seem to be a safe estimation, but I think that is far from the ceiling—it wouldn't shock me to see him rip 40 long balls if he's able to stay healthy.

What will determine Bruce's value is his batting average. The .223 average he posted in 2009 is clearly the product of an insanely low .221 BABIP, but his .281 average is also likely due in large part to a .334 BABIP: He struck out 26.7 percent of the time. I do believe Bruce is capable of posting an average north of .280 thanks to a solid line drive rate (20.1 percent in 2010) and the muscle to send a healthy percentage of his fly balls into the seats. It is also possible that if Bruce will reduce his strikeout rate, which was just 21.7 percent in 2009. Sign me up for owning a 23-year-old outfielder with a fairly high floor and an exceptionally high ceiling.

Pick No. 3 (75 overall): Martin Prado
Preseason projection: .305 AVG, 12 HR, 4 SB, 87 R, 65 RBI, 625 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

Not exactly a sexy pick, but I felt that Prado was a good fit for my team at this stage. Aside from Miguel Cabrera, I had a couple of batting average insecurities in Prince Fielder and Matt Kemp and I took a certain average liability in B.J. Upton with my last pick. Also, I needed cover in one of my scarce positions, seeing how I had filled up on two first basemen, two outfielders and two aces.

Prado gives me some flexibility, being second base and third base eligible. That's a luxury, but what I sought most here was a batting average buffer, someone who can get on base often to score 90-100 runs, and can add a little bit of punch (15-20 homers). Prado ticks all the boxes here. Besides, with a couple of drafters' reaches on Rickie Weeks and Alexei Ramirez already, I was better off snagging a second or third baseman now than nearly waiting 20 picks later for scraps.

Pick No. 4 (76 overall) Michael Young
Preseason projection: .293 AVG, 17 HR, 5 SB, 89 R, 82 RBI, 677 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches

I said in my last post that I have my eye on several players I purposely didn't draft here so as not give away my secrets. Michael Young is not one of them: I have made public my love of him, so trying to deny it now would be futile. ESPN's Matthew Berry talks about the "Wow Factor" in drafts: sleepers and "undervalued" guys who, when taken, draw "Wow, great chaoice!" from everyone in the league. (It got a little ridiculous in this draft when Russell Martin was a "Wow factor" guy.)

But really, it's the solid steady guys like Young who win you leagues. You look at his numbers and they just seem, well, pedestrian. Bill James predicts a decently high batting average but neither the projections nor anything Young has done in the past makes you say "I need that guy on my team immediately!" Yet you look at the player rater and he's among the best third basemen out there. Last year, Young was the seventh best 3B and was top 10 the year before. Now especially considering Young is in my corner infield slot and not even my starting third baseman, I love this pick.

(No one said "Wow, great pick" when you drafted Vladimir Guerrero or Paul Konerko last year. But they did say that about Adam Lind and Gordon Beckham. Just sayin'.)

Pick No. 5 (77 overall): Francisco Liriano
Preseason projection: 15 W, 3.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 207 K, 200 IP
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner

I’m noticing that since my Wainwright pick, a lot of the other Tier One pitchers have been selected. I often wait until after round 10 to take a second starting pitchers on the theory that there is always decent one available, but looking at my lineup I see that I’ve got pretty good balance, and can probably afford to bypass a position player in favor of another ace. I considered Liriano, Jered Weaver and Matt Cain, ruling out pitchers with high upsides but less of a track record like Mat Latos and Tommy Hanson, and guys who could be on the downslope like Roy Oswalt.

Liriano is a bit of a gamble because of his past arm trouble, but when he is right there is no better pitcher in baseball, and I figure even two-thirds of a season of his stats (plus one-third of a season of a good, late-round pitcher pick) will generate a good overall outcome. I like Weaver and Cain a lot, but wemt with Liriano because (a) I see him as having the highest upside, (b) I like the Twins’ pen behind Liriano, (c) I don’t like the situation around Weaver: The team is getting old and the bullpen is bound to cost him a few games, and (d) Cain has thrown a LOT of innings the last three years, and he’s still pretty young—easy to see him wearing down as the year goes on. So Liriano it is.

Pick No. 6 (78 overall): Brian Wilson
Preseason projection: 80 IP, 48 SV, 3.04 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 87 K
Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

Whoever told you “Don’t pay for saves” was peddling something other than the truth. Saves are a rare and valuable commodity, and while overpaying for a cruddy reliever just because he will pick up some saves is a bad way to go, elite closers are more valuable than most give them credit for. Wilson is as steady as they come, and with a beard like that, it’s hard not to draft him. I’m surprised to see his Bill James projection is so pessimistic, as I have him having a much better season.

Pick No. 7 (79 overall): Jayson Werth.
Preseason projection: .275 AVG, 28 HR, 14 SB, 98 R, 91 RBI, 644 PA
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times

I’m not a Jayson Werth fan entirely. He has a lot of question marks surrounding him in the Capital. Can he build on his previous three years of success in Philly? He saw 4.37 pitches per plate appearance, tops in the National League. He struck out a decent amount, but I like that he waits for his pitches and he’s more than capable of punishing righthanders (.937 OPS) which is second behind Albert Pujols in the NL. He steals a few bases, and the Washington line-up is improved over previous years. I make myself a believer just writing about him.

Pick No. 8 (80 overall): Tommy Hanson
Preseason projection: 15 W, 3.41 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 207 K, 219 IP
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

Similar to Ubaldo Jimenez a year ago, Hanson's strong finish is what caught our eye. Hanson sported a 2.51 ERA and a 2.06 ERC, which shows not only how legit his performance was, but that it could have been slightly better. His only "negative" trait was the 6.19 second half K/9 ratio, but it's something that can certainly improve given his past. Hanson walked only 56 batters last year in 203 innings, and only 22 over his final 100 innings. Opponents batted only .205 against Hanson from the All-Star break on.

Hanson struck out more than a batter per inning in the first half. If he can combine that aspect of his game with his second half ERA and WHIP, he'll contend for this year's Cy Young award. I’d rather stack up on hitters early in the draft, and grab a pitcher here who may produce similar numbers to someone drafted much earlier.

Pick No. 9 (81 overall) Mike Stanton
Preseason projection: .268 AVG, 38 HR, 5 SB, 85 R, 104 RBI, 591 PA
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

With two elite pitchers locked up, I turned back to my offense. Though I already had two outfielders, I still had three more to draft. Though some perceive outfielder as a deep position, I disagree in light of the number of positions there are to fill. Even in a three-outfielder, 12-team league, adding outfield, utility and multi-flex positions, between 45 and 50 outfield-eligible players tend to be drafted. Here, a minimum of 60 outfielders were to be drafted and with few top-tier names left in the position on the board, I squared my sights on Stanton, who I also perceive as the best overall player left.

Passing up Pedro Alvarez's third base eligibility, I still was getting elite power. Stanton, who jacked a combined 43 home runs split between Double-A and the majors last season (153 games played). His .248 ISO in just under 400 plate appearances in the majors last season seems to square well with his minor league numbers (.296 ISO), and Oliver, which gives heavy weight to excellent performances by players under 25, sees much room to grow (.330 expected ISO for 2011) for this soon-to-be 22-year-old power-hitting phenom.

Though Stanton strikes out quite a bit (31 percent in the majors last season), his average foot speed, low groundball rate and plus-power profile should keep his batting average relatively high compared to his power-hitting contemporaries. Oliver expects a .281 batting average and 45 home runs, which would be insanely awesome profit on my end, but my expectations settle around a more tempered .270 average and 35 home runs; Bill James seems to largely agree. Stanton also stole five bases in 100 games? If he cuts back on strikeouts and infield fly balls, look out!

Pick No. 10 (82 overall): Pedro Alvarez
Preseason projection: .277 AVG, 27 HR, 4 SB, 78 R, 103 RBI, 599 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

My guess: When this draft took place, Alvarez was on his third go-round at the buffet line. His potential for 30 homers outweighed (yup, went there) his strikeout and batting average issues, along with the lack of help in the runs column he'll receive from his teammates.

His struggles versus lefties won't keep him out of the lineup, though; if he's up, he's playing. Things clicked in August (.306-6-27). With the middle rounds swinging in, I was willing to take the chance of him extending that success. Sure, I could've waited on a corner infielder, but why not go big? He's the Mike Stanton of corner infielderss.

Pick No. 11 (83 overall) Grady Sizemore
Preseason projection: .265 AVG, 23 HR, 23 SB, 105 R, 81 RBI, 708 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

I'll admit right off the bat this was not a smart selection. Sizemore was covered this past week by Ben Pritchett in his Aversion all stars article, and I agree that he is someone to be averse to in 2011. Whether I take Curtis Granderson with the next pick or Drew Stubbs a couple of rounds later, either choice is better in this spot.

Pick No. 12 (84 overall): Curtis Granderson.
Preseason projection: .264 AVG, 25 HR, 14 SB, 95 R, 73 RBI, 646 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys

The outfielder I really wanted here was Jay Bruce, as I think he’s poised for a breakout year, but I’m clearly not the only one so I looked to Granderson for my home run desires. He didn’t exactly blow up the world in Yankee Stadium, as many expected, and posted an extremely disappointing .247 batting average. There is plenty to be hopeful for, though, as his ISO rose from .204 to .221 and he still managed 24 bombs despite missing nearly all of May with a hamstring injury. Seven homers came in the final 16 games of the regular season after hitting coach Kevin Long worked through the second half of the year to compact his swing. He is also due for an upswing in BABIP, which was 37 points off his career average. If he can finally gain some respectability against lefties (.215 for his career), he could get back to the .280 batting average that made him a stud in 2007-08.

Round 8

Pick No. 1 (85 overall): Aramis Ramirez.
Preseason projection: .275 AVG, 25 HR, 1 SB, 68 R, 89 RBI, 514 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys

Third base was getting pretty shallow at this point, so I went with one of the last remaining legitimate options. His last two seasons have been marred by injury, most recently a thumb injury that cost him almost all of June. Of course, that’s the month where he sports the highest career batting average and when he begins to get hot after his usual two-month warm-up period in April and May. Despite the injury, he performed exactly as expected, batting .287 with 20 home runs and a .556 slugging percentage from June 25 on. A .245 BABIP in 2010 also bodes well for a return to batting average respectability, so I’m treating the Bill James projection as a minimum for the Cubs third baseman in his contract year.

Pick No. 2 (86 overall) Mariano Rivera
Preseason projection: 33 SV, 1.89 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 58 K, 62 IP
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

Wow, I'm thankful this was only a mock draft because I'm making a mockery of myself here, literally. In my latest article on the current closers market I discuss how there is a lack of elite closers this year and you are better off waiting a few rounds compared to jumping on the "elite" closers. Follow the article, not the pick.

Pick No. 3 (87 overall): Joakim Soria
Preseason projection: 46 SV, 2.42 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 74 K, 67 IP
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

With the falling stock of closers overall in fantasy drafts, I figured I'd grab a top option before the turn so I didn't have to think about the position for a while. Soria kept up his elite BB/K and added more ground balls to his game. Few stoppers are as stable … of course, that is, unless he's traded to be a setup man for another team. At this price, I was willing to dismiss that continued but irrational fear; such worries produce discounts, after all.

Pick No. 4 (88 overall) Max Scherzer
Preseason projection: 13 W, 3.56 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 209 K, 205 IP
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

As I admitted with regard to Josh Johnson and Dan Haren, I have a penchant for pitching. Yes, the field is deep with potential value, but the volatility of arms limits reliability, thereby offsetting the deep pool. Of course, even the most reliable pitcher might succumb to injury, ineffectiveness, back luck, or some medley of all these unfortunate things, as did the Cubs' entire roster in 2009.

Of my top 100 starting pitchers, I truly only like the top 50 or so names, and even then, there are a handful of pitchers like Matt Cain, Tim Hudson and David Price who are overpriced. My list of reliable “value” pitchers is thin. Hence, when I saw Scherzer, my No. 15 overall pitcher, still available in the seventh round, I decided to add to my team’s pitching depth rather than spring for offensive help.

Seeing as how most of the next 16 picks that sandwiched my seventh- and eighth-round selections were outfielders (I already had three), middle infielders (already had a second basemen and shortstop), pitchers (I feel I got the best one remaining) and closers (I never draft closers in the first 10-12 rounds), I feel I sacrificed very little to acquire “The Dirty Scherz,” who was filthy in the second half (2.47 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 96:35 K/BB ratio over 102 innings). Let his September numbers (3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .289 BABIP-against, 42:11 K/BB ratio over 43 innings) be a fair warning to all who overlook him in 2011.

Pick No. 5 (89 overall) Colby Rasmus
Preseason projection: .261 AVG, 19 HR, 10 SB, 73 R, 54 RBI, 468 PA
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

Rasmus should bat second in front of Albert Pujols in a contract year and Matt Holliday. That’s a pretty good spot to be in. He could score 100 runs if he improves his on-base percentage this year. A 30/15 season can’t be ruled out and there may still be some growing pains. The power/speed combination was a worthy gamble at this point in the draft.

Pick No. 6 (90 overall): Stephen Drew
Preseason projection: .270 AVG, 16 HR, 8 SB, 82 R, 67 RBI, 655 PA
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times

Middle infielders proved to be in demand in this “expert” draft. I had Drew as my back-up plan had I not been able to nab Alexei Ramirez. I might have pulled the trigger a little too early, but the uncertainty at the position in this draft was forcing my hand. I like the way Drew finished 2010. He flashed the same potential that he exhibited in 2008 down the stretch (he had 11 homers and a .300 BA over the final two months). I’m buying on Drew as a cheaper shortstop.

Pick No. 7 (91 overall): Heath Bell
Preseason projection: 74 IP, 40 SV, 2.55 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 80 K
Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

I’ll see you one Brian Wilson, and raise you a Heath Bell. The same reasoning for taking Wilson rings true, and Bell’s home ballpark makes him a very safe selection. Unlike James’ projection for Wilson, I really like what he has in store for Bell, and could certainly live with that line.

Pick No. 8 (92 overall): Jonathan Papelbon
Preseason projection: 38 SV, 3.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 74 K, 65 IP
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner

Well, my winning article in the fantasy competition related to a draft strategy involving relief pitchers, and here it is round eight and I haven’t taken one yet. I really do believe that strong relievers are key to a successful fantasy season. The three best closers in my estimation (Wilson, Rivera and Bell) have been selected earlier this round, and I am concerned that if I don’t take a closer now, I may miss a run. And if you’ve looked carefully, this is one of the most unstable closer seasons (at this point anyway) that I can remember—there are several teams on which the presumptive closer wasn’t the closer at the end of last year. Even a few good teams (like Tampa Bay) don’t know who the closer will be.

Let me interject a thought here about how draft position is critical in a snake draft. I don’t believe that a good fantasy player gains or loses significant advantage based on draft position, but draft position does matter. Example: if I’m picking from an early or late position and I’m going to get round-the-corner picks, I may be able to influence a little bit what happens in middle rounds. Say three or four top closers have been taken, and I take closers with both my round-the-corner picks. That’s bound to get people nervous. “The closers are going,” they think. “Here’s the run.” Closers start flying off the board. Since I started this, I have better closers than the ones being picked after me, and I also have two of them.

By the time it comes back to me, a lot of closers are gone, but some strong position players who might otherwise have been selected that round are still available, and they may fall to me. So maybe I get two outfielders the next round that I wouldn’t have otherwise gotten. I’m using this example with relievers, but it can be done with other scarce positions as well. Unfortunately, I can’t execute this strategy picking from the five spot. Oh well…

So back to my selection: I’m considering Soria, John Axford, and Papelbon, having concluded that most of the other closers available are new, injured, or crap. I know what people are saying about Papelbon—he’s lost velocity, he isn’t the same pitcher he was, Daniel Bard is about to take over the closer role—but I don’t believe it. I think Papelbon just flat out had a bad year last year. It happens. At 30, he isn’t so old that that age should be an issue. He’s big as a horse so I doubt he’s worn down, and I haven’t heard anything about his being injured.

With the addition of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, I think the Sox may win 100 games this year, giving Pap a lot of save chances. As bad as the closer situation is in baseball in general, if he does get traded, it will likely be as a closer, not a setup guy. Soria? I love him, and he’ll likely end up with better peripherals than Papelbon but man, the Royals are soooo bad. Look at their starting lineup and starting pitching, it is pretty ugly—if he saves half of the Royals wins, he’ll only have 30. Axford I like, but he’s been the closer for only a year, and as good as he was, closers can sometimes be flashes in the pan. So I go with Papelbon, who happens to pitch for the Red Sox, who are my favorite team, so I have the added bonus of having a guy on my team who I can root for enthusiastically. (I just don’t think I can work up much enthusiasm for the Milwaukee Brewers.)

Pick No. 9 (93 overall): Asdrubal Cabrera
Preseason prediction: .292 AVG, 8 HR, 13 SB, 78 R, 59 RBI, 571 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches

As I mentioned in my last post I sort of regretted taking Evan Longoria instead of Troy Tulowitzki. This selection is the reason why. Shortstop is so so so shallow that I think you need to, at least, grab one of the top six guys (Hanley Ramirez, Tulo, Derek Jeter, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Alexei Ramirez) and A-Ram is barely on that list. I just really like him. He's my go-to guy when the other five are taken off of the board.

Unfortunately, he went really early, in the fifth round. Even with hindsight being 20/20, I still would not have taken him over his teammate (the player I did take in the fourth, Alex Rios. So with those six off the board, I was left with Rafael Furcal and Cabrera. Both missed significant playing time last year, but Furcal is so old (for baseball players, 33) that I trust Carera (25) much more. While I think Furcal will put up better numbers when healthy, you still have to take health into account (you hear me Ian Kinsler?). So I went with Cabrera. In a 12-team league in which one team took both Tulo and Reyes, I guess I'm begrudgingly fine with Asdrubal.

Pick No. 10 (94 overall): Billy Butler
Preseason projection: .307 AVG, 18 HR, 0 SB, 78 R, 89 RBI, 653 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

Although I locked in my first baseman, corner infielder and utility spots within the first eight rounds with this pick, I thought Butler was a decent value here. There's plenty to like about Butler: He's a disciplined high-average hitter who doesn't strike out too much and is a high-volume doubles hitter. Of course, the most disappointing aspect with Butler last year was a step back in his ISO and his home run production. Given his skill set, Butler can reasonably return to the 20-homer level, even though his runs/RBI totals will likely be tempered some by the lineup protection in Kansas City.

Pick No. 11 (95 overall): Chad Billingsley
Preseason projection: 11 W, 3.63 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 189 K, 201 IP
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

Billingsley has essentially everything I'm looking for in a solid No. 2 fantasy starter. Solid strikeout rate (8.03 K/9 in 2010), high groundball rate (49.6 percent) and the ability to pile up innings (no fewer than 190 since he split time between the bullpen and starting in 2007). While Billingsley no longer looks like a guy who could develop into a fantasy ace, as some may have believed after his 2008 season, he does look like a safe bet to strike out around 200 batters while posting an ERA in the mid-threes with a tolerable WHIP, while possessing upside as well. Small sample size alert is obviously in order, but Billingsley saved his best for last in 2010 by finishing the season posting a 10.89 K/9, a 3.18 BB/9 (good for a 3.43 K/BB) and a 55.0 groundball rate in 39.2 innings in September and October.

Pick No. 12 (96 overall): Casey McGehee
Preseason projection: .282 AVG, 20 HR, 1 SB, 72 R, 94 RBI, 628 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times

At this point I wanted to get my starting infield locked in, but third base had now boiled down to McGehee, Mark Reynolds,Pablo Sandoval and Ian Stewart. Since I have only one player who is a safe lock to bat over .300, I figured I would steer clear of Reynolds and his BA anchor. Sandoval is a popular gamble based on the reports of him getting in shape and Stewart is another BA black hole.

But I drafted McGehee and now I must ask the question: Is his power for real? Looking over his career isolated power, his high was .197 in 2009 and last season it dropped almost 20 points to .179. Also, in Triple-A from 2006-2008 he didn’t fare much better, averaging an ISO of .119. He did hit 38 doubles last season, which suggests he may have some gap power, but at the age of 28 how much more development can we expect? I do respect the batting average he brings; of course he’s not going to win a batting title, but he won’t be an anchor either. I am excited about the Brewers' season, but I am a little concerned about the other batters projected to follow him in 2011. Count this as a wishy-washy pick but his decent average and possibility for 20 homers and 80 RBIs won me over.

Uhm, any chance Jonathan Lucroy breaks out and protects McGehee in the lineup?

Round 9

Pick No. 1 (97 overall): Clay Buchholz
Preseason projection: 13 W, 3.54 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 168 K, 193 IP
Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times

Buchholz is your classic crossroads pitcher. Looking at his innings progression, I think the Red Sox are handling him well; the team will be depending on more in 2011. Will he make a jump like Jon Lester did after his first full season? In terms of K/9, probably not, but Buchholz does have the repertoire and mentality necessary for a power pitcher. I am expecting a slight raise in his strikeout rate, but his command will be key. When you break down his last season stats month by month, you see some fluctuation in his walk rate, so that could bring out complications as he tries to establish himself more on the power side. This is a gamble pick; I probably should have picked someone else like Jered Weaver or rolled the dice on Brett Anderson (for the record, I love Anderson’s skill set but that elbow flat-out scares me).

Pick No. 2 (98 overall): Drew Stubbs
Preseason projection: .262 AVG, 20 HR, 35 SB, 90 R, 71 RBI, 604 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

While contact issues could be the undoing of Stubbs, I'm willing to gamble on him as my No. 2 outfielder thanks to his gaudy combination of power and speed. Stubbs was never able to show off his power tool in the minors, but has delivered in the majors by hitting 30 home runs in 779 plate appearances (a home run in every 25.97 plate appearances). His speed has never come into question even coming up through the farm system, and last year he was able to swipe 30 bags while getting caught just six times. With a 9.4 walk percent last year, Stubbs doesn't necessarily have to post a high average to get on base and award himself both stolen base opportunities and chances to score runs.

Stubbs' biggest pitfall is his potential to post a poor average as a result of a poor contact rate (just 72.3 percent) and a monstrous 32.7 percent strikeout rate. Bill James projects Stubbs' strikeout rate to drop to 28.1 percent, which while still high, would be just a smidge above his strikeout rates in Triple-A and a fairly large improvement (4.6 percent) over last year's mark. That should help him post a more palatable average. With batting average stalwarts Albert Pujols and Kevin Youkilis in place, Stubbs seemed like the type of batting average risk I could take for the reward of solid power and speed contributions as well as useful run and RBI totals.

Pick No. 3 (99 overall): Carlos Quentin
Preseason projection: .261 AVG, 28 HR, 3 SB, 84 R, 92 RBI, 562 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores Fantasy Baseball Cafe

I mentioned a while back that I'm an eternal optimist on B.J. Upton and am more so when it comes to Quentin, especially when recalling his sensational 2008 campaign. In 131 games last year, Quentin still managed 26 homers in 453 at-bats, with the sub-par batting average souring his production some.

Quentin is still just 28 and in a prime situation (US Cellular Field, potent lineup) to post better than the reasonable projection of 30 homers and 100 RBI. If he can generate better contact on balls in play, Quentin's average should rise. This might seem like a massive reach on my part, given that his ADP is probably 50-plus spots lower. However, at this stage of the draft, I didn't mind reaching especially when the outfield is relatively thin on players who have upside.

Pick No. 4 (100 overall): Mark Reynolds
Preseason projection: .233 AVG, 35 HR, 9 SB, 89 R, 94 RBI, 606 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches

Ideally you want one of the top first basemen (Pujols, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, A-Gon, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard , Prince Fielder) but my draft position didn't allow me to take any of those players. By the time my first pick came around, Pujols and Miggy were off the board and I wasn't going to take any of the others that high. When my second pick (17 spots later) came around, all but Fielder were gone and I chose the best pitcher instead).

Now of course there were still some quality guys out there (Konerko, Justin Morneau, Youkilis) but I just didn't like them. As a White Sox fan I love Konerko, but he'll never have a year like he did in 2010 again. I love the talent of Morneau, but after having him for a few years now (and last year) he's kind of burned me and it seemed Youkilis was a reach in the third for the owner who did draft him. I wanted to then go after Billy Butler but I chose stupid Asdrubal Cabrera instead. Now I'm left with guys with huge power upside but extremely low batting average downside like Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena, and Reynolds. Dunn actually went before Butler, so now it was between Pena and Reynolds. So I chose the guy with the low average and high power who and also steals bases. I think he'll have a batting average closer to .250 than .200. Maybe I have to reach a little for a first baseman. But then again, there will always be "Aubrey Huffs" in the free agent pool.

Pick No. 5 (101 overall): Carlos Lee
Preseason projection: .275 AVG, 22 HR, 4 SB, 69 R, 81 RBI, 614 PA
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner

So after I took Papelbon right after Heath Bell, I expected a closer run, but it didn’t happen. That’s actually good news because now I don’t have to rush to take another closer. My biggest needs at this point are second base, corner infield and outfield. I gave thought to Ben Zobrist, because I can play him at second or outfield, but I’m really not sure about him after last year, and I remember Harold Reynolds saying on MLB network that Zobrist wasn’t as good as his 2009 numbers. Besides, there are several acceptable second basemen still available who can give me steals without killing me in other categories, and I figure one of them will still be there in a few rounds given how the other teams have drafted (many already have a second baseman).

There aren’t many third basemen available to place at corner infield—Pablo Sandoval would be an intriguing CI choice, but as I live in the Bay Area I know he continues to struggle with his weight, and who knows if he is really a guy who can sustain a .330 BABIP? I’m looking at the remaining first basemen and outfielders, and all of a sudden I think of Lee. He will end up with eligibility and both positions, so he’ll give me flexibility. Yes he is about to turn 35, but he is a solid player; in my experience great players (and I think Lee was a great hitter in his time) don’t like to end their career on a down note. I think Lee projects almost exactly as Paul Konerko and Big Papi did at the start of last year: “His bat speed has slowed; he can’t catch up to the fast one anymore; he’s on the downslope.”

If I’m going to gamble, why not do it on a guy who will hit in the middle of a pretty good Astros lineup, and who we know has the potential to hit 30 home runs? His second half split was much better than his first—I think he just got off badly last year. And I’ve followed his career—he is a proud guy. I say he gives one more solid year before ending up as the DH in Kansas City (or possibly in a slow-pitch league with Jermaine Dye).

Pick No. 6 (102 overall): Juan Pierre
Preseason projection: .283 AVG, 1 HR, 52 SB, 87 R, 42 RBI, 677 PA
Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

I didn’t love this pick at the time, and I still don’t. However, my rankings suggested Pierre was one of the best players remaining, and the market demanded that I take him. There weren’t many hitters left on the board who could provide me with good power numbers, so I decided to go the other direction and load up on a steals machine who I can count on hitting at the top of the order. I considered Brett Gardner in this spot, but I worry that he’ll be stuck at the back-end of the Yankees’ lineup on most days.

Pick No. 7 (103 overall): Jered Weaver
Preseason projection: 14 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 199 K, 222 IP
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times

He’s my No. 3 starting pitcher in nine rounds. I like Weaver’s strikeout improvement in 2010. At this point I feel I have locked up three 200-K pitchers and have put myself ahead of the rest of these guys in pitching. I have sacrificed some hitting and have work to do later in the draft.

Pick No. 8 (104 overall): Brian Roberts
Preseason projection: .279 AVG, 9 HR, 24 SB, 80 R, 49 RBI, 575 PA
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

Brian Roberts isn’t a player I was targeting, but it’s a nice value on a middle infielder who is leading off. The Orioles lineup is rather underrated. After Roberts the likely followers include Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee, Luke Scott. Roberts may not swipe 40 bags anymore, but 25 would suffice and 30 would be great. He had scored over 100 runs three seasons in a row until last year’s injury-prone debacle.

Pick No. 9 (105 overall) Pablo Sandoval
Preseason projection: .308 AVG, 18 HR, 3 SB, 71 R, 78 RBI, 574 PA
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

I expect my Kung Fu Panda selection to garner the greatest criticism of my drafted roster. That’s okay; that just indicates to me that I am almost certain to get Pablo Sandoval on draft day. Sure, at some level he has the body type of Prince Fielder, the walk rate of Juan Pierre and the power of Juan Uribe. These are clearly concerns, as manifested in an extremely disappointing 2010 campaign: .268/.323/.409 with 15 home runs, three stolen bases, and fewer than 125 combined runs scored and batted in.

Nonetheless, Sandoval is still under 25, had an impressive minor league career (.303/.342/.445), was able to sustain major league success over 2008-2009 despite never playing in Triple-A, has improved his walk rate each season in the majors, and strikes out very little while making superior out-of-the-zone contact (career 76.7 percent compared to a 62 percdent major league average mark). I do not expect Sandoval to set the world on fire in 2011 (my chart has him pegged for a line akin to .295/20/5/90/90), but I expect him to rebound plenty, especially in the batting average department. Sandoval probably won’t hit 30 homers any time soon, but 20 seems quite reasonable considering his slightly above average power and the fact that most of AT&T Ballpark’s ill effects on offense regard left-handed hitters.

Third base, as I have previously explained, is not a particularly shallow position. I could have not drafted Sandoval and, considering that Josh Shepardson would have drafted him, picked up Ian Stewart, David Freese, Chipper Jones or Michael Cuddyer toward the end of the draft. In my eyes, however, Sandoval was the last third basemen on the board who would not hurt you in the categories in which he did not contribute. Sandoval is a younger and higher-upside NL-version of Michael Young, whom Kaplan drafted two rounds earlier. If Sandoval does not pan out, I can always nab Chase Headley from the theoretical waiver wire.

Pick No. 10 (106 overall): Gordon Beckham
Preseason projection: .273 AVG, 15 HR, 6 SB, 81 R, 77 RBI, 605 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

One of my favorite bounce-back candidates, Beckham makes second base look deep. Before being hit by a pitch, he was charging back in the second half last season, thanks to a mechanical adjustment in his swing. There's 20-homer, 90-RBI, .290 bating average potential here in a dangerous lineup.

Funny how fickle fantasy drafters can be. Beckham was a hot property in 2010 drafts. Were you surprised by his slow start? He barely had any farm time! Now, after the light finally goes on with a little more experience while he still at second base, everyone ignores him. He's buried in most early ADP rankings (Hint: ADP isn't gospel). I wasn't taking the chance of him falling in this group.

Pick No. 11 (107 overall) Brett Gardner
Preseason projection: .275 AVG, 5 HR, 50 SB, 97 R, 47 RBI, 589 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

Coming into last season I was a big Gardner supporter and he followed through with a top-50 season as rated by ESPN's player rater. Overall his line was not super-spectacular and I could see him repeating his 2010 performance and even beating it. At this point in a draft, after pick 100, I think Gardner is a fail-safe option that I will take advantage of in most drafts.

Pick No. 12 (108 overall): Matt Cain
Preseason projection: 14 W, 3.36 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 183 K, 217 IP
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys

Rounding out my top three pitchers is Matt Cain, World Series Champion and a great value in Round 9 to the point where I almost regret taking two pitchers in the first six rounds. Almost. There’s not much to hate on here other than a low win count as he showed improvements in strikeout rate, WHIP and xFIP, and posted a fantastic 2.46 BB/9 ratio that has shown steady improvement from the 3.76 he registered in 2008. What’s more amazing is that he seemed to save his best stuff for the playoffs, allowing zero, yes, zero earned runs against the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers over 21.1 innings of work. At 27 years old with five full seasons under his belt, he is entering the prime of his career and gives me the best top three staff I could have hoped for.

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 6:44am (9) Comments

Monday, February 07, 2011

2011 Aversion all stars: part II

Searching for guys to like is so easy to do. Finding the heels can be a tedious task. Keeping my personal bias out of this list was quite difficult. I failed in accomplishing that particular feat. The four guys from last week all had much larger question marks surrounding them than the four I have for you today. This week's aversion all stars list has a top 10 pick from 2010, a one-time Cy Young winner, and two former top-15 Baseball America prospects. Please enjoy my cornucopia of resentment.

Matt Kemp OF LAD - Something puts me off about a guy that can flash such raw ability so early on in his career and then let that get threatened by a desire to lead a “playboy” lifestyle. Seemingly, Kemp has traded his glove and cleats for fast cars and popstar girlfriends.

I know that most fantasy baseball doesn’t take into account fielding, as well it shouldn’t, but Kemp’s UZR rating of –24.0 roughly categorizes him as the worst fielder in baseball. Now, we know that’s not the case, but it doesn’t help me like him any more.

Of his 34 stolen base attempts, Kemp was able to convert just 19 of them. That’s the most caught stealings of anybody with 34 or fewer attempts. Also, Kemp saw his strikeout percentage jump to 28.2 percent. For frame of reference, Ryan Howard’s strikeout percentage was 28.5 percent.

I don’t think it was a matter of skill regression for Kemp, but he is definitely having some focus problems. I’d rather see a skill regression or injury because you can still gauge value. When focus or love of the game comes into question, you have to throw projections out the window. Kemp is still a stud in his talent, but to be a top-30 pick, he has way too much baggage.

He and Rihanna have since split, but break-up baggage can be tough, too. Observe Pablo Sandoval’s 2010 season.

Trevor Cahill SP OAK - What is there to like about Cahill? Well, he has a solid Baseball America pedigree. His 56.1 percent groundball rate is elite. He won 18 games in 2010 without coming near the dominance he had shown in previous minor league seasons. So there could be growth in that department.

What is there to hate about Cahill? He hasn’t shown the dominance that he had shown in his minor league career. Cahill’s swing percentages all point to future problems. His BABIP was .236, which was the lowest amongst all starting pitchers. His FIP of 4.10 is a far cry from his actual 2.97 ERA. The offense of Oakland will never be good enough to propel this guy near 20 wins again. There’s no justification of a selection within the first 100 picks for Cahill, much less over the likes of Max Scherzer, Daniel Hudson and Wandy Rodriguez.

Additionally, Cahill represents the kind of fantasy pitcher that can certainly fill gaps for your fantasy team, but he’ll never be able to lead a fantasy staff. His style leads some to compare him to Tim Hudson. I see that as a reach because Huddy outperformed Cahill in most peripheral stats in 2010 and has had a much longer track record of success.

Roy Oswalt SP PHI - Unless the Phillies are going to go 162-0, one of their starters is going to have to show some vulnerability. Hamels has really come into his own of late. Doc Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. Cliff Lee is the best-pitching pitcher in baseball. So that leaves us with Joe Blanton and Oswalt. Blanton’s limitations are obvious, but he’ll be a serviceable fifth starter.

I must first say that my “hate” for Oswalt is not going to be a statistical dislike as much as a gut feeling. So feel free to reject the following analysis, but remember—a gut feeling can be just as solid as a statistical prediction in this game of chance.

Which Oswalt will find his way onto the mound in 2011? The one that limped through a 2009 with a K/9 of 6.9, an ERA of 4.12, and a 1.24 WHIP, or the one that catapulted the Phillies into the playoffs? His cool, calm reaction to a change of scenery was inspiring. Finding an effective way to use the change-up could resurrect his dominance, which was his highest since 2001.

My irrational “hate” hovers around little things like his hit percent (Ron Shandler Fantasy Forecaster), which was 26 percent, by far the lowest of his last five years. Hit percent helps to mitigate through lucky and unlucky hits. Anything sub-30 percent is considered on the lucky side, and vice versa, anything over 30 percent tends to show some misfortune for the pitcher. I’m also not sold on the strikeouts. A reversion to his career average would not be surprising.

I’m definitely not saying that Oswalt shouldn’t be drafted. Furthermore, I’m not debating his stable skill set. He might fit in with a safer fantasy player. For me, I’m projecting a line of 13 W/3.51 ERA/1.20 WHIP/140 K. A line like that is very comfortable, and a manager could feel content to get that from his 100th pick.

I just see so many “riskier” guys that present a much more interesting statistical offering. All the guys I mentioned that should be taken over Cahill should be taken over Oswalt as well.

Elvis Andrus SS TEX - When the Atlanta Braves handed the Rangers their farm system for a year of Mark Teixeira, I couldn’t eat for days. Gone was Neftali Feliz. Out went Salty. Goodbye, Matt Harrison. Arguably the best prospect in that deal was a little shortstop named Elvis. He was fast and displayed an excellent glove. Andrus has matured in the Ranger system, and his promise manifested itself in 2009. His six HR and 33 SB at age 20 had us all salivating as to what he could one day become.

2010 painted a different Andrus than what we saw in 2009. His power literally disappeared. He had no home runs, only 15 doubles, and a measly three triples in 670 plate appearances. Even with the increase in plate appearances, Andrus’ stolen base total dropped from 33 to 32 in 2010. This was mainly due to a lack of efficiency on the basepaths, as he was caught stealing 15 times.

To say that’s unacceptable is being nice. A speed guy who doesn’t steal a ridiculous amount of bases, doesn’t hit for a decent average, and has absolutely no power is still being drafted at spot No. 71.8, ahead of a host of other players that will out-accumulate him in 2011. Maybe the Braves knew something that I didn’t. Stay away for 2011 at least.

Last on my hate list is the month of February. Now that the Super Bowl is over, we will all be force fed ice hockey, the Miami Heat and Dick Vitale for the next 28 days. Only a glimmer of pitchers and catchers reporting remains. The blah days of February must be approached like the guys on this list. Just close your eyes and let them pass by.

Here’s to March.

Posted by Ben Pritchett at 5:11am (7) Comments

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Tuesday, February 01, 2011

The Verdict: Yahoo is endangering fantasy sports