THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:12am (35) Comments

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Brett Gardner is running

Gardner caught in a rare moment of swinging the bat. Does this even count as swinging? I'm not sure. (Icon/SMI)

Last year I told you to hop onto the Brett Gardner bandwagon. If you listened, you were rewarded with a Top 50 fantasy performance.

As I hope everyone here knows, Gardner's most valuable asset is his speed—responsible for his stealing 47 bases last year, good for fourth in the majors. Throw in 97 runs, 47 RBIs, five homers, and a .277 average and you get the line of the 17th-ranked outfielder by ESPN's player rater. And even if you feel ESPN's player rater overrates speed guys a little (it does), adjusting them down would appropriately place Gardner around the 25th most valuable outfielder. Pretty good.

Considering how Gardner was a last-round pick in many leagues last year and in preseason rankings was ranked as the 80th-best outfielder at the earliest, he undoubtedly provided a good return on investment. Though I suppose when the cost of investing is near zero, it is easy to make the investment worthwhile. Either way, Gardner made it well worth the while with his production.

After his impressive 2010, Gardner won't come quite as cheaply, but let's see if he is still worth the somewhat larger investment you will have to make in him this year. Looking at a few websites with early rankings out we see he is ranked the 31st outfielder by Jeff Gross here at THT, recent Fangraphs hijackers Rotochamp.com have him as the No. 36 outfielder, and Grey at Razzball aggressively ranks him 22nd.

Based on the value of his performance last yea,r we know Gardner can break even with the Razzball ranking if he repeats his impressive 2010. For the sake of saving virtual ink and your reading time, I'll provide the summary conclusion: Gardner is a good candidate to replicate his breakout season. In a less ink-conscious article, Matt Klaassen at Fangraphs looked into the issue more in-depth and concluded that due to Gardner's fantastic plate discipline he is less likely to play terribly.

Don't you love summarizing?

Anyway I don't believe a lack of skill to be the weakness in Gardner's armor, but rather his potential playing time issues, so let's focus more on those. Last year Randy Winn and Marcus Thames were cast as the potential playing time thieves and did a poor job in the role. This year Andruw Jones is the villain and figures to be a bit more prominent, especially when the Yankees are facing a lefty. However I still see Gardner starting an overwhelming majority of the time; he was their second-highest WAR-ranked player let us not forget.

The bottom line is if you believe Gardner can repeat his 2010, which to me seems likely, then he can appropriately be drafted around pick 100. In most drafts he is still going later than that, making him an obvious selection if he falls deeper in the 100s. Once again, Brett Gardner appears to be a good value pick heading into the season.

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:40am (4) Comments

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

Silly little idea

I know my readers normally expect me to try to give helpful advice about playing or structuring fantasy baseball, but today I’m going to deviate from that aim to ask a simple question. Perhaps I’m in need of a sanity check and, if so, I’m confident THT’s trusted and wise readership will not disappoint.

This past holiday season, I was given the first half of the ESPN 30 for 30 box set. One of the documentaries is titled Silly Little Game covers Dan Okrent, who is the inventor of rotisserie baseball. In the film, Matthew Berry (better known as the Talented Mr. Roto) offered the opinion that Okrent should be in the Hall of Fame—the actual, real Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York. The film doesn’t stress this point except in the extremely general sense that Okrent and his inaugural league mates are widely under-appreciated and unknown with the culture they birthed.

Okrent himself is extremely humble and even embarrassed to accept public accolades. Though he did agree to participate in a film about his invention that was to air on “the worldwide leader,” there was nothing sensational about the piece, Okrent himself, or the inaugural rotisserie baseball league. Recently, The New York City Council held a ceremony to honor the founding fathers of rotisserie baseball, but Okrent did not participate; you could tell he saw it as contrived and generally weird.

But, if Cooperstown came calling, he’d have to show up, right? After the movie was over, I sat back and reflected on Berry’s proposition for a few minutes, and I have to tell you, I think I agree. Is it absurd or outlandish to think that the inventor of rotisserie baseball should be in the Hall of Fame?

I tried to talk myself out of it, but I couldn’t. In fact, the more I thought about it, the less crazy it sounded.

Okrent and his buddies debuted their game in 1980. I asked myself what the most important developments have been in fan culture over the past 30 years. I asked myself what innovations to the game, developed specifically to either enhance the game itself or the experience of interacting with the game, occurred over that time period that deserved serious consideration to be recognized in the Hall of Fame. And, finally, for any such development, is there an individual or small group of individuals who could be directly identified and honored as having been responsible for such an innovation? Judging by those criteria, two developments sprang to mind.

The internet age of baseball fandom has been dominated by the proliferation of fantasy baseball and the evolution and expansion of sabermetric analysis of the sport. Further strengthening the case for fantasy baseball’s founder as a Hall of Famer, I feel that these two movements aren’t exactly separate.

I’ve long advocated the theory that fantasy baseball has been and will continue to be the wedge by which advanced metrics will infiltrate and eventually conquer the old-guard glamor stats. Because the focus on so many of the advanced stats is to isolate that which is core and repeatable, because these stats are supposed to be more predictive of future events than traditional numbers, it is through playing fantasy sports that most lay fans are now introduced to core sabermetric principles.

I don’t need to go in-depth to rehash the value of fantasy sports to the actual sport to the THT Fantasy readership, but suffice to say that nothing transforms the causal home team fan into the sport-wide obsessive like participating in fantasy baseball. The result of such a transformation is an economic growth engine for the entire sport. Fantasy baseball is estimated to be a $2 billion industry unto itself. To today’s younger generation of fans, fantasy baseball teams are their baseball cards.

So, I support Dan Okrent for the Hall of Fame. And, for the record, I support Bill James for the Hall of Fame as well.

In a final bit of romantic serendipity, or maybe predictable mutual interest, the first piece of widespread exposure Bill James ever received was a profile in Sports Illustrated that ran on May 25, 1981, entitled, He Does it By the Numbers. The article was accompanied by the byline of a one Daniel Okrent.

Will those inside the institution of baseball’s golden palace ever come around to agree with me and the 90210 savant, Mr. Berry?

There are plenty of old guard fans and “baseball men” who hold unfounded, reactionary contempt for fantasy sports. “You’re not building a fantasy team” is still a popular ad hominem tossed around by failed managers, room temperature IQ broadcasters, and the Carl Sagans of sports talk radio. But, there will always be Luddites and those all too proud to be on the wrong side of history.

It gives me tremendous pleasure to be able to answer the question, “How many rings does Bill James have?” by saying, “twice as many as Darren Erstad!” Seeing somebody like Dan Okrent get serious consideration for baseball highest honor would not only be similarly sweet vindication for the marginalized sports geek finally gaining acceptance in the mainstream scene, it would be the most appropriate praise and honor for Mr. Okrent.

Okrent and his friends began what is today a $2B industry, and from it not a single one became rich. But, as Okrent said in the film, he’s okay with that because none of them did for the purposes of making money. They did it to have fun; they did it out of love for physical sport of baseball. And, essentially what they created was a vehicle that helps millions of others fall more deeply in love with that game.

When somebody acts out of love, that person isn’t seeking money or fame, that person is simply seeking that love be first understood, then appreciated, and finally requited. Despite the absolute explosion on fantasy sports from a cultural perspective, I think its relationship with the institution of baseball is remains stuck in that first stage of understanding, as many people seem to still see rotisserie baseball as dichotomous to real baseball instead of an ode to it.

I hope that one day, the institution of baseball becomes learns to love some of its most devoted right back. And, there would be no more dignified and fitting way to do so than to award somebody like Dan Okrent baseball’s highest honor, not just as the inventor of what is today fantasy baseball, but essentially as the embodiment of what it means to be a pure fan.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:10am (7) Comments

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Take it to the top

As the temperature hovers around single digits today, knowing that pitchers and catchers report in four days—and that spring training is just around the corner—makes it a little easier to deal with. Every baseball fan, fantasy enthusiast or otherwise, exudes optimism every spring. Every team is 0-0 and has dreams and aspirations of greatness.

Every fantasy manager LOVES his team after the draft. He can’t wait to tell everyone about all of the great values he found in the later rounds and how he executed his strategy masterfully. Then most, after a couple months of the season pass, realize that maybe it wasn’t quite as amazing as initially thought.

I’m here to pass on useful nuggets of information and draft strategies in an effort to help your team look as great at the end of the season as you thought it did on draft day.

Last week in my article on position battles, I mentioned one very important rule to follow when building your offense. This rule mainly applies to deeper 14- or 15-team mixed leagues that start 14 offensive players. If you’re playing in an 8-12 team league, you’ll probably end up with a full-time player in each roster spot. However, in those deeper leagues, the ones that separate the men from the boys, you need to take this mantra seriously:

MAXIMIZE YOUR AT-BATS!

Don’t let yourself settle for players who are in platoon situations. I don’t want to hear, “But Garrett Jones was great in 2009 and provides much-needed power to my team!” Sure, but Matt Diaz is going to steal all of the at-bats against left-handed pitching.

In addition to making sure your players are locked into full-time jobs, there is another area you should focus on as well. While there will be fluid situations during the season, try to draft players who are hitting at or near the top of the batting order.

Again, this seems very simple, yet every year I watch as people overlook this aspect. The difference between someone hitting first or second in the order compared to another player hitting eighth or ninth could be 150-plus at-bats over the course of the season. This is especially useful when trying to select between two similar players.

For example, let’s say you’re looking for a fourth outfielder around pick 270. Your team is lacking in speed, and Coco Crisp and Julio Borbon are still on the board. As of now, these two players have very similar values and ADP. However, Crisp is expected to lead off in Oakland, while Borbon is slated to hit ninth in Texas. An additional 150 at-bats makes a ridiculous difference and would make this choice a no brainer to me.

Here are a few players whose value you may need to reconsider based on their premium slot in the lineup.

Lorenzo Cain (MockDraftCentral Average Draft Position: 359): If the season started today, it appears that Cain is most likely to lead off for the Royals. Given 600-plus plate appearances and Cain’s elite speed, you could be looking at 40 or more steals at an insane bargain price.

Chris Coghlan (ADP 340): Coghlan had an extremely disappointing sophomore campaign after his 2009 ROY. Still, however, he will bat leadoff for the Marlins this coming season. Given the extra at-bats and hitting ahead of Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton, Coghlan could approach 100 runs scored. This would push his value above Cody Ross, Jonny Gomes and several other outfielders who are being selected in the same tier currently.

Daric Barton (ADP: 333): I find Barton to be a very interesting player. Sure, he doesn’t offer the power that most desire from a corner infielder, but I still believe that he can be useful in mixed leagues.

As it stands, he’s going to be hitting second in the A’s much-improved lineup. Barton has always been an on-base machine and could score 90 or more runs. In addition, he’s still going to be only 25 years old, which means we could still see a small uptick in his power potential. This year I expect Barton to approach .280/90 R/15 HR/60 RBI/6 SB, which makes him a steal at this point of the draft.

Neil Walker (ADP: 254): As it stands, it appears that Clint Hurdle will slot Walker in the three hole in his Opening Day lineup. If he can build off his very productive rookie season, Walker could be a beast of a second baseman in 2011. A potential .285/70 R/16 HR/80RBI/5 SB season could be attainable, which would provide solid numbers from a second baseman or middle infielder.

Now, I’m not saying that a player’s spot in the lineup is the be-all and end-all; it’s just another tool that you should pay close attention to as spring training progresses. When comparing similar options to draft, the added bonus of having a top-of-the-order hitter should play a pivotal role. Hopefully, if this was something you weren’t already focusing on, it helps to make your teams even stronger and more complete.

As always, questions and comments are welcomed and appreciated!

Posted by Dave Shovein at 5:02am (11) Comments

Friday, February 11, 2011

Valuing players with your E.Y.E.S.

I have come to love the auction draft fantasy format. Tired of watching my targeted sleepers and studs go a few picks before my turn, sick of being entirely helpless and at the mercy of my fantasy provider's value rankings, I opted to work the free market in recent seasons.

The glory of auction is that every owner has a chance at every player. The auction format and bidding market equalize the stress of not having a top five pick in your league's snake draft, precluding you from one of the upper echelon elite players. Auction is not without its own stresses, however. The free market operates efficiently only when its participants are informed. Like the seller of an album of baseball cards who does not understand the value of a 1963 Topps Pete Rose card, an uninformed bidder is substantially less likely to profit on the open market.

Being informed requires more than knowing raw stats and having a player projection. Believing that Jay Bruce will hit .280 next season with 30 home runs, five to 10 stolen bases, and 85 runs and RBI is nice, but unless you know the league average player output, Bruce's projection is meaningless. Player valuation requires some appreciation of relative category weights and scarcity. To deal with this issue and weight player values, I have a methodology, which I explain below. I have also included a pricing guide applying this methodology to Oliver's 2011 preseason player projections as of Feb. 1.

First, three points that will inevitably arise:

My methodology, like any pricing guide, has an inherent limitation: the quality of the projection system. My methodology weights relative stat production, but if the projections are weak, then the pricing guide will inevitably be weak. For the purpose of this article, I used Brian Cartwright's Oliver projection system from The Hardball Times to create a pricing guide. Oliver has proven to be a very reliable system, on par with ZiPS (not released in full yet) and CHONE (now defunct). You can access Oliver's statistical projections (and more) by subscribing to THT Forecasts.

Second, for the purposes of simplification, I analyze all hitters as utility players. Some people like to adjust their numbers to account for position, but I'd rather just index the top 20 players by position after I have my Z-Score totals and know how much actual value, unbiased by position, each player is going to provide.

Third, there are better and more accurate methodologies out there. One is readily available via THT Forecasts. Another system is one created by Tom Tango a few years back. I know that Zach Sanders (of Fangraphs) and some others are working on something very similar as well. What I present to you today is merely what I do on my own, which I hardly proclaim to be unique. I am certain that someone out there probably uses, and invented before me, this same methodology to value players.

In honor of Steve Phillips, who values baseball players with his eyes and heart, I have dubbed this system of dollar valuation the Expected Year's Evaluation Statistic, or E.Y.E.S. for short.

Step 1: Determining the size of the player pool

Determining the size of your expected active player pool (those players who will be on some player's team as either a starter or bench player) is essential because only a limited set of major league talent gets used in fantasy. This is true even of AL- and NL- only formats. Because not every player gets drafted, valuing players is a two-tiered process. First, you separate potential active roster talent from "the rest." Then, you evaluate the players in the pool. This will be explained in further detail below.

Before we can determine a potential player pool, we must determine an approximate depth for the pool. Let the number of teams in your league equal X. Let the total number of drafted hitters per team equal Y, and the total number of drafted pitchers per team equal Z. For the purposes of this analysis, I am going to use a 12-team league with one of each active infield position player (C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B), one corner infielder (CI), one middle infielder (MI), five outfielders (OF), and one utility player (UTIL), for a total of 13 hitters per team. I am also going to use nine generic pitching slots. There is also the matter of the bench. I usually play in leagues with five bench spots, which will be spit three to two between hitters and pitchers. This gives us a grand total of 192 batters and 132 pitchers, for a total of 324 players.

Of course, the player pool is quite subjective and often much deeper than a consensus 324 players. In step 2, I deal with this problem, but 192 hitters and 132 pitchers will be our starting point.

Step 2: Calculating preliminary Z-Scores

A Z-Score sounds much more complex than it really is. Okay, maybe not, but Excel (or Open Office) makes Z-Score calculations easy. Simply put, a Z-Score measures how many standard deviations from the mean (either positively or negatively) a given statistic is. For our purposes, players with high Z-Scores will help you in a given statistical category. Players with a Z-Score of 0 will have a neutral effect. Players with Z-Scores below 0 will hurt you in a category. The greater (or lower) a Z-Score, the more of an impact, for better or worse, a given player will have for your fantasy team in a calculated category.

To fill out a player pool, I first calculate the Z-Scores for every player for each of the hitting and pitching categories. For hitters, I use only a pool of players expected to accrue a minimum of 400 plate appearances. I am sure there are a few fantasy-valuable players out there who will come to the plate fewer than 400 times this season, but they are few, so I have ignored them for this demonstration. Per Oliver's 2011 projections, the pool of hitters who are expected to have 400-plus plate appearances is 436 players deep. Among these 436, the mean batting average is .265, the mean home run total is 14.0, the mean stolen base total is 8.1, the mean runs total is 62.6 and the mean RBI total is 61.0. The standard deviations for these respective categories are .019, 7.9, 7.8, 11.6 and 17.1.

To calculate any given category's Z-Score for a player, you simply take the difference of that player's stat against the mean for that stat and divide it by the standard deviation. For instance, Albert Pujols is projected by Oliver to hit 43 home runs. To calculate Pujols' home run Z-Score (labeled Z-HR in my charts), we take the home run mean(14) and standard deviation (7.9) and use the following formula: (43-14)/7.9. If you plug that into your calculator, you will find that Pujols' Z-HR is 3.67.

Now do this for every player for every statistic, and when you are done, sum up each player's cumulative Z-Score. Then repeat this process for pitchers, using wins, saves, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. I also like to use K/9 for the purposes of evaluating pitchers.

By now, you have probably wondered how I plan to value rate stats. A .300 hitter is not nearly as valuable as a .290 hitter if the .300 hitter is getting two-thirds the playing time of the .290 hitter. To deal with this problem, I determined the average at-bat total for all players expected to accrue 400 or more plate appearances (468.8) and I multiplied the batting average Z-Score by the player's actual at-bats total divided by the league average at-bats total. This adjusts the Z-Scores for batting average to reflect playing time. I do something similar with innings pitched for pitchers.

Step 3: Distillation

Once we have a series of player Z-Score sums for batters and pitchers, we need to select the "cream of the crop" to represent the potential player pool. If you recall above, we determined that, at least for our example, our league would use 324 active players (192 batters and 132 pitchers). Accordingly, I begin by selecting the 192 batters and 132 pitchers with the highest Z-Score sums. These players should represent our best "all-around players" for drafting.

This is not the end of step 3, however. Fantasy teams are dynamically comprised and owners often draft one or two category guys to fill holes and to stream. To account for this, I then rank the residual player pool by categorical Z-Score. I then pull out any player with a Z-Score of 1.0 or higher in any fantasy category. I also add any remaining players who I think are "interesting" to my player pool, even if their categorical Z-Score is less than 1.0, as $1 buys to keep an eye out for. Not even the best projection systems gets every player right, and this element of player selection requires personal judgment. For instance, Oliver is incredibly bearish on Aaron Hill, who I like for 2011. His Z-Score sum is not within the top 192 and he does not have a Z-Score of 1.0 or greater in any single category. Nonetheless, I added him to my player pool.

Doing this, I ended up with 235 hitters and 166 pitchers, for a grand total of 401 players. This seems reasonable.

Step 4: Calculating primary Z-Scores

Now that we have our pool of 401 players, we need to recalculate our Z-Scores to reflect the draft pool talent. If you want remotely reliable numbers for draft day, it is pointless to value player X against undrafted players. These 401 player represent the best of the fantasy crop, and accordingly, the means and standard deviations in each category between them will change. Among the 235 hitters in our example sample, for instance, the mean batting average jumps up to .272 (from .265), the mean home run total jumps to 17.2 (from 14.0), the mean stolen base total jumps to 10.6 (from 8.1), the mean runs total changes to 70.4 (from 62.6), and the RBI total bumps up to 69.1 (from 61.0). The standard deviations also change to 0.018, 8.8, 9.3, and 18.0, respectively. The average expected at-bat total also rises from 468.8 to 497.2.

Re-calculating and re-summing each player's Z-Score, we are left with the expected relative value weights of each player.

Step 5: Calculating dollar values

Once we have relatively weighted Z-Score sums for each player, we now need to determine each player's dollar value.

To calculate dollar values, we must determine the total amount of money in our fictional economy. Simply put, we need to determine how much money exists to be split among the players with positive Z-Scores (all players who are ultimately assigned Z-Scores below $1 will have their dollar values rounded up to $1). Using the standard $260/team budget, applied to our 12-team fictional league, we find an economy with $3,120 in it. In real life, you could barely buy a pimped-out MacBook pro with that money, but here you can buy CC Sabathia!. Alas, I digress.

Take this $3,120 total and divide it by the total Z-Score sum across all hitters and pitchers. The Z-Score sum from which to divide the economy value by should not include any players with negative Z-Scores; ignore these players for the sake of Z-Score valuation. Doing this will give you a rough dollar value estimate per Z-Score. Take this dollar value and then apply it to each player's Z-Score to get your estimated dollar value for that player.

Keep in mind that the minimum bid for any player is $1. Certain players in our draft pool, particularly the "one category" players (hitters or pitchers with a Z-Score of 1.0 or greater in only a single category), have Z-Scores below 1.0. Other players probably have Z-Scores that, when multiplied by our Z-Score dollar value, have Z-Scores under $1. Because these players will actually cost you at least $1, all players with dollar values under $1 are rounded to $1.

And there you have it. That is how you can calculate dollar values (EYES) for auction on your own. Use your EYES (not your heart) on draft day! Empower yourself with information. Of course, you could also do none of this analysis, save yourself some time, and purchase a subscription to the substantially more accurate THT Forecasts, which has its own built-in pricing guide for Oliver. I guarantee you those numbers are much better than mine.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 1:06am (43) Comments

Breaking down the mock draft: Rounds 17-19

On Sunday, Jan. 16, 12 baseball analysts from around the web mock snake-drafted fantasy baseball team for 2011.

They assumed 25-player rosters, using the standard 5x5 categories and a 1,500 innings-pitched limit. Using Mock Draft Central, teams were constructed with three starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, four "generic" pitchers (starter or reliever), three bench players, five outfielders and one of each of catcher, first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, middle infielder and corner infielder.

We have broken this draft into four parts—rounds 1-6, 7-12, 13-19 and 20-25—and over four weeks, each of the participants to the draft is providing insight into each of these picks. All preseason projections below are courtesy of the Bill James projections available on Fangraphs.com. Please post comments below.

Other round analysis: Rounds 1-3 || Rounds 4-6||Rounds 7-9||Rounds 10-12

Those who wish to follow the rounds in which players were selected by their respective owners should check out Mock Draft Central (a free Mock Draft Central account will be required to view this).

Round 17

Pick No. 1 (193 overall): Derek Holland
Preseason projection: 5 W, 4.08 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 73 K, 86 IP
Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times

This is a slightly ridiculous pick, plain and simple (and, yes, I did sneak in the word "slightly." Remember rule No. 3 in Fantasy Sports Competition: Never admit defeat during an auction/draft).

You know what… I blame three things: (1) the wine I was consuming before round one and talked about earlier in my mock draft analysis. For those of you scoffing, just know that alcohol consumption is one of the great mainstays and equalizers in any live draft. (2) The pre-ranking provided by Mock Draft Central. For some reason, Holland was ranked very high and since this was the first time I used MDC, I found myself relying a bit too much on its rankings. (3) I do see a lot of promise in Holland, despite some knee and shoulder issues last season. His command has been improving and coupled with his ability to miss bats, special things could be in store. Also, word is that he has been working on change-up this offseason.

Oh well, I’ll either look like an idiot or a lucky fool if this hits. On second thought, I probably should have grabbed Chris Sale since Holland will, most likely, be sitting on the waiver wire in most leagues.

Pick No. 2 (194 overall): David Ortiz
Preseason projection: .261 AVG, 33 HR, 0 SB, 91 R, 112 RBI, 655 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

Remember June 2009? That would be the time that everyone in the fantasy baseball world, namely David Ortiz owners, were going all Chicken Little claiming the sky was falling and Ortiz was done, never to be heard from again. While there was reason for concern at the time, to say that was a slight overreaction would be a gross understatement. While he's not posting the gargantuan numbers he did from 2004-2007, Ortiz was able to slug 32 home runs last season and pile up 102 RBI, all with a tolerable .270 AVG. With the additions the Red Sox made in the offseason, and the return to health of prominent players, it's safe to say their lineup is loaded from top to bottom. That means Ortiz should have opportunities to both drive in and score runs regardless of his place in the batting order. Those able to make daily changes can really properly use Ortiz by taking advantage of his gigantic split difference and starting him only against right-handed pitchers, against whom his slash was .297/.416/.643—he he slugged 30 home runs in 403 plate appearances against righties. Looking back on the draft, I feel Big Papi was my best value pick.

Pick No. 3 (195 overall): Andres Torres
Preseason projection: .271 AVG, 14 HR, 25 SB, 84 R, 53 RBI, 575 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

I came to the conclusion that, aside from Matt Kemp and B.J. Upton, my team was lacking in speed. I wasn't too enthused about this pick, but the projection seems realistic if Torres can stay healthy. That said, the persistent scrolling issues I had with MDC's user interface played some part in fooling me that the likes of Rajai Davis was on the board; Davis would have been the better pick for a boatload of stolen bases.

Pick No. 4 (196 overall) Brandon Lyon
Preseason projection: 23 SV, 3.55 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 52 K, 76 IP
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches

I love to have at least three closers on my team- no matter if I'm doing roto or head-to-head. I've seen guys in H2H blow off saves and it's worked wonders in their favor, but the problem with any scrapping strategy is that you better be darn sure that you're awesome at the categories that you try to win. So I try to win every single category, even saves. Admittedly saves are by far the most fungible fantasy statistic and the one most easily attainable in free agency. Because of this, fantasy owners tend to blow them off, but on the flip side, it's because of this that you can easily do well in that category. To make a long story long, I drafted Lyon because (1) all I care about is that he gets saves, (2) I think he will be the closer all year and (3) I needed a third closer and he was the most stable for saves opportunities.

Pick No. 5 (197 overall): C.J. Wilson
Preseason projection: 14W, 3.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 164 K, 192 IP
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner

I still need a few starting pitchers, and as usual at this stage there are plenty out there to choose from. I had Wilson in a couple of leagues last year, and I really enjoyed watching him pitch. He is generally regarded as having among the best stuff in the game. At 30, his arm is mature, but doesn’t have a lot of wear-and-tear on it because of all the years he spent as a reliever. I figure that he has upside because of his stuff, and because he is still really learning to be a starter. I think he’ll end up on the favorable side of every projection, especially the ERA projection—I have him at 16 wins, 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, the big difference being my theory that the lesson of last year was to trust his stuff a little more and nibble a little less.

Pick No. 6 (198 overall): Derrek Lee
Preseason projection: .278 AVG, 23 HR, 3 SB, 80 R, 84 RBI, 614 PA
Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

Because I absolutely needed a little more power from my corner infielder, I decided to go with what I would consider to be a safe bet. Lee may be getting older, but playing in Baltimore should be a nice treat for the first baseman and his fantasy owners. He’s not the stud he once was, but he still has something to offer.

Pick No. 7 (199 overall): John Danks
Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.92 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 173 K, 216 IP
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times

Danks marks my second White Sox pitcher. That’s not something I usually like doing. Grabbing multiple pitchers from a ballpark that favors hitters doesn’t really make a whole lot of sense, but I like Edwin Jackson to grow and even break out in 2011. Danks is proving be quite the consistent player. With the front-end talent I have with this staff, a consistent pitcher is all I need with this pick.

Pick No. 8 (200 overall): Brett Myers
Preseason projection: 10 W, 4.02 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 183 K, 215 IP
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

A career bust, Myers had managed only 70 innings pitched IP in two of his previous three seasons as a Philly. One was as a closer, but it wasn't like he was dominant. His 3.15 ERA and 1.24 WHIP last year caught us all off guard. Since he was "supposed to" do this years ago, his 2011 rank reflects our opinion that he can sustain this kind of success now that he's "figured it all out." Cliff Lee took a similar path to stardom. We aren't calling Myers the next Cliff Lee; rather, we're comparing the lack of surprise at their respective late-blooming success. Myers struck out 180 batters and made 33 starts over 223 innings. If he can repeat, he'll be worth the price tag he'll require in 2011. We think he can do it. Last year, he became just the fifth pitcher since 1920 to last six or more innings in 32 consecutive starts.

Pick No. 9 (201 overall): Manny Ramirez
Preseason projection: .290 AVG, 23 HR, 1 SB, 74 R, 84 RBI, 532 PA
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

Like the Rays, I got great value getting Manny in the 17th round. Even in an down season last year, he managed to hit .298 with nine home runs in half a season. Now that he's a DH, there should little excuse for him not playing daily. and if his downside is a 20 home run season, given Manny-being-Manny’s upside, that is a gamble worth taking. Everyone needs a utility player and Manny just might be a dirty-cheap Big Papi. I expect a batting average north of .290 with a belly full of RBI to go along with a 25-30 home run season. How often do you get good power from a late-draft pick without hurting your team batting average?

Pick No. 10 (202 overall): Dexter Fowler
Preseason projection: .285 AVG, 7 HR, 18 SB, 88 R, 46 RBI, 575 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL

Continuing Operation Fill My Outfield with Speedsters (guess I'm not one for brevity). Fowler stumbled out of the gate in 2010 but found his offensive footing later on, crossing the plate 55 times, hitting .280, posting a .357 on-base percentage and swiping seven bags dating from his from his June 29 return to the majors.

He needed the Triple-A seasoning, and alterations of his left-handed swing lit a fire under him. The last skill is what I'm banking on for an expansion, as long as platoon splits don't haunt him again. His 30-plus swipes potential called my name. I answered.

Pick No. 11 (203 overall): Sean Rodriguez
Preseason projection: .262 AVG, 16 HR, 12 SB, 66 R, 57 RBI, 419 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

S-Rod was a nice late-round middle infield flier until Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez ~~walked~~ hobbled into town. Not sure how many at-bats Rodriguez will see in 2011 now, so I'd rather target the second baseman I drafted two rounds later, import Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Danny Espinosa or even Neil Walker.

Pick No. 12 (204 overall): Ryan Ludwick.
Preseason projection: .261 AVG, 23 HR, 1 SB, 70 R, 85 RBI, 553 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys

This is a lazy pick, plain and simple. I’m shocked that James has him projected for such high numbers. His batting average fell badly as soon as he joined the Padres last August: He hit .211 with a .330 slugging percentage compared to .281 and .484 with the Cardinals. Depending on where he bats in the Padres order, he could put up those projected run and RBI totals, but I just don’t see how he could hit 23 home runs considering he has done that only once in his career, and that was in 2008 when he hit 37 on a fluke 20 percent HR/FB ratio. Since he's my fifth outfielder I guess I’m not awfully upset about it, but I would have rather gone with some young upside here instead of a mediocre 33-year old.

Round 18

Pick No.1 (205 overall): Philip Hughes.
Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.56 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 166 K, 177 IP
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys

Hughes had a much inflated win total last year due to the Yankees' offense, which will lead to him being overvalued in many drafts. Not here though, as the 18th round is a great place to grab the 24-year-old, who will have to be huge if the Yankees are to be respectable in their rotation. He had some trouble midseason with his curveball, which was awful against right-handers; if he can fix that he’ll get close to this projected 3.56 ERA. I also think he’ll pick up more than 12 wins due to that offense. I’m pretty excited to have the Yankees' second starter as my sixth pitcher.

Pick No. 2 (206 overall): Hiroki Kuroda
Preseason projection: 11 W, 3.39 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 144 K, 209 IP
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

Kuroda is a pitcher I don't fully understand; to do so, I would have to be a huge Dodgers fan and watch all the team's games. That said, I can't argue with his results. Don't be afraid to be the one to scoop him up.

Pick No. 3 (207 overall): Jorge de la Rosa
Preseason projection: 9 W, 4.45 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 209 K, 161 IP
Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL

I tapped the Rockies once again, this time for groundball skills and dominance. Mr. James doesn't see the hope here— probably blinded by DLR's homer allowance, his home park and his injury-shortened season. Luckily, I saw that in the second half, he sacrificed a little dominance for BB/9 gains—a potential solution in the long run. More early-count aggressiveness will help him put it together. He was overvalued last year; now, undervalued.

Pick No. 4 (208 overall): Danny Espinosa
Preseason projection: .255 AVG, 21 HR, 19 SB, 69 R, 60 RBI, 459 PA
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

When you get to late round draft picks, almost everyone left is a liability insome respect. You do not draft your “front end” types late, but the category fillers, trying to construct a balanced roster. In choosing what to draft for, I try to avoid batting average. BABIP luck tends to be the least predictable, so I value counting stats over empty batting average.

Alas, I digress. While Carlos Pena is likely going to be a big batting average liability and while you do not want to roster too many of those (at least not without both Albert Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki on your roster), Espinosa was just too enticing to leave undrafted in light of my middle infielder need. From a counting stats perspective, Espinosa has a strong minor league record Over the 275 games he has played over the past three seasons across various minor league levels, Espinosa has hit 40 home runs and stolen 54 bases, while walking at a good clip (11 percent). His minor league batting average is not awful (.270), but given his strikeout tendencies, Espinosa is likely to be a batting average liability in the majors. His Major League Equivalent, per Oliver, last season was a .235 batting average with 28 home runs and 21 stolen bases.

Oliver forecasts a 19 home run, 15 stolen base output this season (599 PA) to go along with a .245 batting average. Espinosa is likely a 15/15 lock with 20+/20+ upside. I view him akin to drafting a balanced Adam Dunn with shortstop eligibility. If you want batting average, which is volatile, go with Mike Aviles. If you want the counting stats, which are more a byproduct of playing time, Espinosa should be your man. How he fell to me so late is beyond explanation.

Pick No. 5 (209 overall): Homer Bailey
Preseason projection: 7 W, 4.50 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 119 K, 142 IP
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. That phrase goes out the window for the boy who cried wolf. It took him a long time, but he's arrived. Aaron Harang is no longer a member of the Reds rotation and Bailey should replace him. The ignorant will see a final line of a 4.45 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. The keen eye noticed a 9.00 K/9 ratio and a 3.55 ERA over his final 10 starts of the year, which totaled 60 innings. Bailey has the pedigree to support this kind of success and while many have soured on him, we suggest you give him one more chance.

Pick No. 6 (210 overall): Ian Kennedy
Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.66 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 176 K, 194 IP
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times

I like Ian Kennedy, but I don’t know how good the D-backs will be in 2011, and that will factor into his success. There will be days when Kennedy will need a decent amount of run support, but his peripherals point to a solid fantasy starter one day. We all love his pitching mate Dan Hudson, but Kennedy could even outperform Hudson in 2011.

Pick No. 7 (211 overall): Rajai Davis
Preseason projection: .287 AVG, 4 HR, 39 SB, 57 R, 37 RBI, 430 PA
Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

I’ll reiterate the thoughts that I’ve echoed throughout my comments: I decided to bulk up on speed due to the lack of available power. Thus, Rajai Davis.

Pick No. 8 (212 overall): Jorge Posada.
Preseason projection: 267 AVG, 18 HR, 2 SB, 69 R, 76 RBI, 502 PA
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner

I generally draft catchers late. As good as Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez and Brian McCann may be, they are not going to have the plate appearances that other position players are. Put another way, a .300 average from a catcher contributes much less to your overall stats than a .300 average from anyone else. So I usually “settle” for a Carlos Ruiz type catcher rather than a McCann. Maybe it’s wrong, but it’s what I do.

Round 18 seems late enough to take a catcher. I notice that most of the other teams have drafted their, so I could probably wait a few more rounds, but I’ve gotten killed in leagues a few times when someone decided to take a backup catcher early and I got left with Rod Barajas or something. I notice that Posada is still available. On the one hand, he is another old guy—he’ll be right at home with Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Lee and Bobby Abreu. On the other hand, he still has pop for a catcher, even at the age of almost 40. I understand the Yankees are going to DH him this year, which should save a bunch of wear and tear. There are still a bunch of catchers out there, and if Posada doesn’t work out I can probably get a decent catcher off the waiver wire at some point. So I take Posada hoping that I’ll get a few homers out of him, and that his body holds up one more year.

Pick No. 9 (213 overall) Logan Morrison
Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 9 HR, 3 SB, 80 R, 65 RBI, 588 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches

At this point, I looked at my team and realized I needed an outfielder. I purposely drafted two elite outfielders in Alex Rios and Jason Heyward and when drafting for middle infielder depth I drafted Ben Zobrist, who also has outfielder eligibility. I technically have Coco Crisp as a fourth outfielder, but not really. So I needed to get more. Because I had not done any research by mid-January and I didn't want to give away my few outfield sleepers, I went to Jeffrey Gross's top 60 outfielders and drafted the highest guy on his list. I never have any problems finding outfielders in free agency.

Pick No. 10 (214 overall) Javier Vazquez
Preseason projection: 13 W, 3.73 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 183 K, 198 IP
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

To make amends for the Johan Santana pick, I was pleased to have landed Vazquez as my No. 4 starter (not counting Santana). Now that Vazquez is back in the National League, he'll be one of my main pitching targets late. The loss of nearly 3 mph off his fastball is a turnoff, but I think a late-round throw of the dice isn't too bad a price to see if an offseason of rest will lead to a rebound in velocity and a subsequent rebound in performance. Vazquez has historically posted fine peripherals and it seems last season was a one-off. While I wouldn't expect the 35-year-old Vazquez to revert to anything close to his career-best 2009 campaign, I would have him down for a 3.80-4.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 180 K, with a chance of lowering that ERA a bit (3.50-3.60).

Pick No. 11 (215 overall) Eric Young Jr.
Preseason projection: .259 AVG, 3 HR, 46 SB, 69 R, 25 RBI, 482 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

Considering Colorado's log jam for playing time at third base and second base that features Jose Lopez, Ty Wigginton, Ian Stewart and Young,. I'm not thrilled with this pick. That said, there was little available in terms of middle infield help at this juncture, and I wanted someone with upside. Boy, does Young possess that. He had an off year plagued by injury in 2010, but is just one year removed from stealing 58 bases and posting a .387 OBP in Triple-A. While it would be foolish to just throw out his 2010 as if it didn't happen, it would be even more foolish to look past his previous 50-plus stolen base potential that was on display in the high minors before last year. If he's able to accumulate over 500 plate appearances, I'd be thrilled with this pick. If not, he's cast aside for a middle infielder out of the free agent pool (who not coincidentally is likely to perform about as well as any of the middle infielders I could have selected at this draft slot).

Pick No. 12 (216 overall): Ervin Santana
Preseason projection: 11 W, 4.14 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 169 K, 211 IP
Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times

After second-guessing myself on the previous pick, I felt I needed to hedge my bet and go after a solid starter. He isn’t an extreme fly ball pitcher, although his stats tend to suggest otherwise. I do like the trends he has been showing command-wise and if he can get a few more decimal points added to strikeouts-per-nine, he should be solid.

Santana tends to be a two-pitch pitcher, relying mostly on his four-seam fastball and slider. This exposes him to a few fly balls finding their way over the fence as well as limiting his effectiveness against left-handed batters. It’s not ideal, but at this stage of the draft I'll take anyone who can deliver close to 180 strikeouts and whose range in wins is anywhere from 11 to 18 with a decent ERA.

Round 19

Pick No. 1 (217 overall): Reid Brignac
Preseason projection: .283 AVG, 23 HR, 3 SB, 78 R, 80 RBI, 598 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times

I would love to grab another arm, but the gap between this pick and the next is too wide. I was locked on what I needed position-wise, and I didn’t want to kick myself and watch someone grab a high upside middle infield pick like Brignac.

This was also another hedge pick, since I didn’t want to be caught with a middle infielder starting the season in Triple-A (read: Dustin Ackley). Brignac’s batting average could be a bit grimacing but he should get the chance to start and his plus defense will give the organization enough reasons to be patient. He will have to be platooned against lefties and could be special if used in the right situations.

Pick No. 2 (218 overall): Aroldis Chapman
Preseason projection: 14 SV, 3.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 69 K, 60 IP (OLIVER)
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

With a number of pitchers vying for the No. 4 and 5 five spots in the Reds rotation, it appears Chapman will be helping the Reds this year by pumping up his triple-digit pitches in a relief role. While the Reds may have Chapman get some work in Triple-A as a starter, I believe that's unlikely, and that you'll see him ultimately wrestle the closer gig away from Francisco Cordero (or more likely Cordero cough the gig up all by his lonesome). Possessing a hellacious fastball/slider combination as well as the ability to induce a ton of groundballs (73.1 percent groundball rate in his 13.1 innings in the majors last year), he can be a dynamic reliever who's capable of helpful ratios and big strikeout numbers in the bullpen while he waits to pick up saves.

Pick No. 3 (219 overall): Marco Scutaro
Preseason projection: .266 AVG, 10 HR, 6 SB, 85 R, 60 RBI, 666 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

Needing a middle infield stopgap, I take Marco Scutaro off the scrap heap. Scutaro was a decent source for runs and average last year, although Jed Lowrie could wrestle some playing time away from him in 2011. This was my last pick before having to leave it on autopilot.

Pick No. 4 (219 overall): Gavin Floyd
Preseason projection: 9 W, 4.42 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 136 K, 179 IP
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches

For some reason James thinks that Floyd will have a career lows in 2011 in wins, ERA, Ks and WHIP. I do not understand why. Last year Floyd posted the best FIP of his career (3.46) and the second best xFIP (3.83—his best was in 2009 with 3.69).
Floyd was one of my sleepers last year and because I am a White Sox fan, I watched him pitch all last season last year. He struggled out of the gate, and I'm sure essentially every Floyd owner but me had dropped him by June. That would have been a shame, because then you missed his 2.58 ERA in June and his 0.80 ERA in July. Sadly Floyd did regress in August, September, and October, but for two months Floyd was the best pitcher in baseball.

Pick No. 5 (221 overall): Edinson Volquez
Preseason projection: . 11 W, 4.13 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 152 K,145 IP
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner

I still need use another starting pitcher. There’s still a bunch of good ones out there—you really can always find a good one out there on waivers. So that being the case, why settle on a “safe” pitcher at this point—some guy who will go 14-11 with a K every two innings—when that guy will always be available on the waiver wire? Why not use a pick to try to WIN.

I notice that no one has taken Volquez. That’s not surprising, given his past TJ surgery, and his suspension for PEDs. Who knows if his 2008 season was a fluke, or the result of PEDs, or what? But he has the potential on a good Reds team, assuming he is healthy, to get me a ton of strikeouts and wins. I kind of discount the projections because they incorporate 2009, when Volquez was hurt and needed the surgery; and 2010 when he was rushed back because the Reds were in the playoff race and wanted to go for broke.

My guess is that Volquez is now fully healthy. Whether his velocity is where it once was, or whether he can find the plate after his debacle in the playoffs last year is anyone’s guess. But if astute picks in Rounds 13-18 are one way to win a fantasy league, gambles that have real potential in Rounds 19-25 are another way to win. Guys like Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey, who are still available, are not going to win the league for me. Volquez, if he returns to form, might.

Pick No. 6 (222 overall): Ryan Madson
Preseason projection: 3 SV, 3.62 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 68 K, 77 IP
Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

Madson was an absolute beast last season, and I don’t believe Brad Lidge will be able to hang onto the ninth inning job for all of 2011. Even if he doesn’t get a shot at closing games, Madson should wind up providing enough strikeouts to make him a valuable reliever.

Pick No. 7 (223 overall): Kevin Gregg
Preseason projection: 28 SV, 3.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 54 K, 58 IP
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times

I hope I picked the right Oriole. At draft time, there was still doubt as to who will close, Koji Uehara or Gregg. Jeffrey Gross will tell you the job is unequivocally Uehara’s. I will debate that. Gregg has been paid a lot of money to be just a set-up man, and he has closing experience. Gregg has earned his shot in Baltimore.

Pick No. 8 (224 overall): Mike Minor
Preseason projection: 6 W, 4.94 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 140 K, 150 IP
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

Minor had an ERA close to 6.00, but struck out 43 batters in 40 innings. He also struck out 140 batters in 115 Triple-A innings in 2010. The Braves have a great organization to turn him around. He’ll have the fifth spot in the rotation and could be a nice surprise to round out your pitching staff.

Pick No. 9 (225 overall): Koji Uehara
Preseason projection: 4 W, 13 SV, 2.81 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 55 K, 64 IP
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

The way I look at it, the closing gig is wide open and Uehara has the better shot of getting the job than Gregg and keeping it long term. Uehara is the better pitcher (better career ERA, WHIP, K/BB, BB/9) and proved quite capable in the closer role last season, blowing only two of his 15 save opportunities while posting a season ERA below 3.00 and a WHIP below 1.00.

After last season, Uehara is not without his experience, though experience clearly favors Gregg. Manager Buck Showalter has not assigned anyone the closer job and plans to give it to the “better man” come spring training’s close. As I see it, Gregg was enticed by the prospect of both a two-year deal and a strong chance at closing if Uehara could not stay healthy. Uehara signed a one-year deal with a vesting second year that becomes guaranteed based on both health and performance. Essentially, this puts Uehara in a “it’s your job to lose” position, with Gregg hoping for the worst and the Orioles having a strong backup plan if Uehara’s health falters. Mike Gonzalez still looms, and, if healthy, he too would probably make the better ninth inning option in a competition with Gregg. .

Pick No. 10 (226 overall): Ryan Franklin
Preseason projection: 4 W, 28 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 42 K, 57 IP
Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL

Feel the excitement! Franklin's skills are trying to take the job from him even if Tony La Russa isn't. Saves were running thin, and at this point, I guess getting someone who has a job counts for something, but I probably could've speculated instead since I already had Joakim Soria and Huston Street. Jason Motte is near the top of my imaginary free-agent target list.

Pick No. 11 (227 overall) Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Preseason projection: .299 AVG, 7 HR, 31 SB, 66 R, 56 RBI, 623 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

James doesn't offer projections of international players, so I was gracious enough to provide you with Oliver's projected line. If he puts up those numbers you're golden. But even if he doesn't, just be happy to own a guy with a clear shot at playing time, which is not a given with the other second baseman drafted around him.

Pick No. 12 (228 overall): Adam LaRoche.
Preseason projection: .261 AVG, 24 HR, 0 SB, 71 R, 86 RBI, 592 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys

Another rather boring pick for me; it’s actually scary how similar the projections are for LaRoche and Ludwick. While he’s a rather average player overall, what I am getting with LaRoche is consistency: He’s hit a minimum of 20 home runs every year since 2005 and 25 each of the last three. I am also likely to get a minimum of 70 runs and 80 RBIs. His batting average and ISO are in decline, which is concerning, but perhaps he can rebound and put together something more respectable, in the .270 range. Overall, though, this a pick I would have rather spent on young upside.

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 4:58am (4) Comments

Breaking down the mock draft: Rounds 13-16

On Sunday, Jan. 16, 12 baseball analysts from around the web mock snake-drafted fantasy baseball team for 2011.

They assumed 25-player rosters, using the standard 5x5 categories and a 1,500 innings-pitched limit. Using Mock Draft Central, teams were constructed with three starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, four "generic" pitchers (starter or reliever), three bench players, five outfielders and one of each of catcher, first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, middle infielder and corner infielder.

We have broken this draft into four parts—rounds 1-6, 7-12, 13-19 and 20-25—and over four weeks, each of the participants to the draft is providing insight into each of their picks. All preseason projections below are courtesy of the Bill James projections available on Fangraphs.com. Please post comments below.

Other round analysis: Rounds 1-3 || Rounds 4-6||Rounds 7-9||Rounds 10-12

Those who wish to follow the rounds in which players were selected by their respective owners should check out Mock Draft Central (a free Mock Draft Central account will be required to view this).

Round 13

Pick No. 1 (145 overall): Matt Garza
Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.80 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 171 K, 206 IP
Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times

Garza moving to the NL Central looked attractive enough for me to grab him as my fourth starting pitcher, but could moving to windy Wrigley negatively impact his numbers? It’s very possible given Garza’s rising fly ball rate (from 39.9 percent in 2008 to 44.7 percent last season) and his home-run-to-fly-ball-ratio has been friendly (or lucky) given his skill set. I do expect Garza to move away from his high usage of his four-seam fastball and balance it out with his two-seamer.

Last season, Garza induced a healthy amount of groundballs via his two-seamer at nearly 50 percent and based on the moderate frequency of this pitch, I don’t see why he can’t use it more.

Pick No. 2 (146 overall): Carlos Beltran
Preseason projection: .274 AVG, 20 HR, 12 SB, 74 R, 74 RBI, 505 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

Not the sexiest pick at this point, and certainly one with question marks, but Beltran presented a decent upside fourth outfielder. Now that he's further removed from knee surgery, one would hope Beltran is as healthy as he possibly can be, and able to hold up for more than 500 plate appearances. If healthy, he'll slot in the heart of the Mets' order, meaning he'll be in prime position to rack up counting stats.

I'm skeptical of just how often he'll be allowed to run, but given his fantastic previous success rate, he may not need to run often to rack up 10-15 stolen bases (which is where I see his total settling in; any more would be gravy). With a healthy base, he should be able to drive the ball and rack up around 20 home runs in spite of his home run-supressing home ballpark. Overall, a healthy Beltran presents a solid across-the-board contributor, and as a fourth outfielder, a worthwhile health gamble.

Pick No. 3 (147 overall): Jose Valverde
Preseason projection: 26 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 64 K, 57 IP
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

I anticipated that I would be left without a premier closer this late in the draft. By the 11th round, I would have expected the likes of J.J. Putz, Huston Street and Jose Valverde to be off the board, but they still lingered in the 13th. I eventually chose Valverde, who I feel is the best bet to keep closing all the way through season's end. Despite Valverde's shaky second half, he managed to average a strikeout an inning and induced an all-time best 55 percent groundball rate. Granted that relievers can be volatile, Valverde has the best combination of job security and injury risk aversion of the closers left on the board at the time of this pick.

Pick No. 4 (148 overall) J.J. Putz
Preseason projection: 38 SV, 2.88 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 53 K, 50 IP
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches

While the vast majority of "experts" will tell you not to pay for saves, I prefer to pay for at least one guy. Unfortunately, when the "elite" closers run happened, I was in dire need of other positions like middle infield and first baseman, so I was no in hurry to draft an elite closer. (Seems like kind of counter intuitive advice: These experts tell me not to pay for saves so they can snatch up all the great ones...)

Well, joke's on them because I got an elite closer five or six rounds later than they did. In the past five years, Putz has either been a lights out, shut-'em-down reliever or a pretty bad one. But the one factor between The Tale of Two Putzes: health. During J.J.'s time on the Mets, he was obviously not healthy. Instead of waiting to watch him heal, New York decided to release Putz.

Putz had an average FIP of 2.31 and an average ERA of 2.17 during his year on the South Side of Chicago and his third to last season and his penultimate season as a Mariner. However, in his one season as a Met and his last season in Seattle he had an average FIP of 3.99 and an average ERA of 4.55.

Last year, when he finally got healthy again, Putz had a 10.83 K/9 along with a 4.33 K/BB ratio along with a 2.83 ERA and a 3.53 FIP. He's back.

Jeffrey Gross proposes the theory that closers on bad teams will get more save opportunities and thus more saves because these teams will still win 60-plus games and most of them will be by three runs or fewer, thereby giving the closer boatloads of save chances. But I would think Rafael Soriano, Mariano Rivera, Neftali Feliz, Jonathan Papelbon and Octavio Dotel in 2010 (and guys like Mo and Papelbon for the past few years) would seem to disprove that theory. Guys like Heath Bell and Brian Wilson showed that they will get saves independent of how well their team does.

I believe that the guys who will get saves are just the closers who will not have their jobs taken away. Trying to find these guys is easier said than done, but I believe Putz will be the Diamondbacks closer all year. Sure, he could have a freak injury and miss half the season, but so could any pitcher. Putz is back to his lights-out closer form and as Arizona showed us last year, there is NO pitcher breathing down Putz's neck itching to take his job.

Pick No. 5 (149 overall): Francisco Rodriguez
Preseason projection: 35 SV, 3.02 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 68 K, 60 IP
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner

If you recall my post from last week, you’ll remember that I was trying to take K-Rod in round 11, but I timed out and ended up with Vladimir Guerrero. Three more closers are off the board, so I decide to go now with K-Rod. Pretty much the same story as with Papelbon: an elite closer who ran into some trouble last year, but who is still a big game pitcher. I feel like something just got into the Mets’ water last year—they are a much better team than they showed, and I figure K-Rod gets a lot of save opportunities even with the weak starters. He has always been an emotional guy, and I figure he has something to prove.

I said in an earlier post that for me, the real draft starts with Round 6, because of the predictability of the first five rounds. There is another sense in which the real, real draft starts in Round 13. If you graph the distribution of draft picks, Round 13 (for a 12-team league) is the round in which the ADP begins to flatten. If you scan the ADP on most fantasy sites, ignoring the players themselves, you’ll see 1.21, 2.21, 3.74, 4.03 or some pattern like that, with an approximate increment that is a relatively straight regression line. At Round 13, the ADPs begin bunching more. There’s a couple of reasons for that, but one is that you are now in an ability range where, for the most part, players are harder to differentiate. I think drafts (in 12 team leagues) are often won between rounds 13-18 for this very reason: It is the fantasy player who makes correct decisions in those rounds who ends up in position to win the league. (I’ve actually mapped this in a couple of leagues from last year.)

Pick No. 6 (150 overall): Jose Tabata
Preseason projection: .287 AVG, 7 HR, 37 SB, 83 R, 52 RBI, 612 PA
Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

Tabata seems to be overlooked in most drafts, and as I’ve mentioned in previous selections, this felt like great value in a five-outfield league. Tabata is young and highly thought of, which is all well and good, but he also put up good numbers last season. With the draft going the way it was, I figured I’d be best off to load up on speedsters who would help my average, and Tabata does just that.

Pick No. 7 (151 overall): Howie Kendrick
Preseason projection: .295 AVG, 10 HR, 13 SB, 71 R, 73 RBI, 567 PA
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times

He’s starting to lock himself in as a double-digit home run and double-digit steal guy. He’s going to hit somewhere near .300. Bad news is that ceiling that was always rumored about might be falling. The chance to be a batting champion still remains. He was a must-grab for me.

Pick No. 8 (152 overall) Madison Bumgarner
Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.54 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 137 K, 188 IP
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

As a 21-year-old he burst onto the scene with a 3.00 ERA, but had a 1.30 WHIP. He didn't strike out many major league batters, nor at the minor league level. This is what separates him from someone like Trevor Cahill, who, despite a low K/9 ratio in the majors, struck out more than a batter per inning in the minors. Bumgarner still has upside, but without a ton of strikeouts and the high WHIP, he doesn't seem like a safe bet in 2011. This late though, I’ll take a pitcher in a pitcher’s park who has very little pressure to perform well in 2011.

Pick No. 9 (153 overall): Ricky Nolasco
Preseason projection: 11 W, 3.92 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 164 K, 179 IP
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

Nolasco, ranked No. 23 on my top 100 starting pitcher rankings, needs some explanation.

Most believe that at some point, certain pitchers are not under/over-performing their peripherals, just reflecting their true talent—that sabermetrics do not accurately measure all pitcher types. That surrounds my Matt Cain opinions and my love for Nolasco. In 2010, I predicted he would be as good as Jon Lester. I was clearly wrong, but there are still plenty of reasons to believe that if Nolasco’s health holds up, he will be a top tier pitcher in 2011.

How unlucky was Nolaso's 4.51 ERA last year? Nolasco posted a .316 BABIP-against for the second straight season (career .301 mark, .296 xBABIP-against last season) and his past season peripherals (3.86 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 4.06 tERA) universally indicate an expected ERA well below his 2009-2010 results. Even with all the BABIP-downfalls in 2010, Nolasco had a WHIP below 1.30. Plugging Nolasco’s 2010 numbers into the beta version of the xWHIP 2.1 Calculator, we find that Nolasco’s expected WHIP falls somewhere between 1.14 (using expected innings) and 1.18 (using actual innings pitched).

In addition, his normalized batted ball output represents an expected 3.69 xFIP and 4.19 tERA—slightly higher than his non-regressed 2010 rates, but still solid all around. With Dan Uggla no longer “gobbling up” groundballs in the middle of the Marlins infield, perhaps Nolasco will find better luck in 2011. I’d say it is more likely enough to warrant drafting him as the 150th or so player off the board. I would surely bank on his risk-inherency over lesser known quantities with upside like Daniel Hudson or Madison Bumgarner, and I would certainly rather have Nolasco than a middling closer (K-Rod, John Axford).

Pick No. 10 (154 overall): Huston Street
Preseason projection: 4 W, 35 SV, 2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 70 K, 69 IP
Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL
Injury history aside, Street's skills are undervalued, even with his scary fly-ball rate; closers can get away with that in dangerous ballparks. Ever since he adjusted his alignment on the rubber when he first came to the Rockies, he has been stellar with a 9.50 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9. Of course, that's when he pitches. His second-half bounce-back last year solidified his No. 1 closer-capable value—and he's my No. 2. The only threat to job security is his health.

Pick No. 11 (155 overall): Daniel Hudson
Preseason projection: 14 W, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 183 K, 201 IP
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

Hudson has impressive minor league numbers and delivered when traded to the D-backs and called to the majors. I can see him having an elite season with his control and ability to miss bats. It wouldn't surprise me to see him as a top 15-20 pitcher heading into 2012.

Pick No. 12 (156 overall): Jonathan Sanchez.
Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 215 K, 204 IP
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys

Grabbing two pitchers from the same rotation feels odd to me, but I couldn’t pass up on this young fireballer who is a near lock for another 200-strikeout campaign. Yes, he is due for a rise in ERA from the fantastic 3.07 he posted last year, as his FIP remains in the four-range due to a high 79.5 left on base percentage and BABIP in the low .250 range. I’ll take the 3.71 projection though, and with a freakish strikeout rate that’s remained consistently high throughout his major and minor league career, he makes for a fantastic fourth starter.

Round 14

Pick No. 1 (157 overall): Andrew Bailey.
Preseason projection: 58 IP, 30 SV, 2.64 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 56 K
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys

If you’ve been intently following my selections, which surely you have, you’ll notice that this is my first reliever. Clearly, saves are not something I value in drafts. In fact, I usually use them as trade bait and rely on the waiver wire for that category. With that in mind, Bailey makes for a fine top closing option for my needs. He has an ideal 3-1 K/BB rate, which includes striking out nearly a batter per inning and a sub-two ERA over 132.1 major league innings. All reports point to him being in perfect health for the beginning of spring training and ready for a great season closing for what should be a much-improved Oakland Athletics’ squad.

Pick No. 2 (158 overall) Travis Snider
Preseason projection: .273 AVG, 16 HR, 7 SB, 46 R, 48 RBI, 340 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

Snider was rushed a little to the majors two years ago as a 21-year-old and hasn't quite put it together at the majors. A now 23-year-old Snider appears primed to break out and join the Blue Jays' power display. Oliver loves Snider, projecting him for 30 bombs. He struggles to make contact and whiffs like me in Wii Baseball, but I hope he keeps the Ks under control and lives up to his lofty potential.

Pick No. 3 (159 overall): Denard Span
Preseason projection: .294, 5 HR, 24 SB, 85 R, 58 RBI, 590 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL
The Spanburger was a decent steals grab at this point. I'm not so thrilled about everything else, but a useful clip at least helped to push my shaky batting average upward a little. The Twins' leadoff batter should continue to add capable runs, too, just as long as his little dings don't add up.

Pick No. 4 (160 overall): Drew Storen
Preseason projection: 3 W, 32 SV, 3.84 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 67 K, 72 IP (Oliver)
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

Those who know me know how little I value closers in fantasy baseball. I altogether punt the category in H2H formats and draft scraps in Roto. In Storen, however, I have high hopes, seeing an undervalued commodity opportunity. In my relief pitcher rankings, I have Storen ranked No. 10 overall. He is a talented pitcher with good stuff and the Nationals, being a team unlikely to compete this year, are likely to let him take his lumps as he learns the ropes of the big leagues. Consequently, I think Storen’s job is much safer than most people give him credit for.

A glance at Storen’s walk rate by month (6.35, 3.86, 3.18, 2.92, 3.00) also indicates that his 3.46 BB/9 for last season is not indicative of his true ability. Storen should post strong K/9 numbers with solid ratios and 30 or more save. That I got him so late, after lesser and riskier pitchers like K-Rod were off the board, is ridiculous in my view. Accordingly, I broke my draft-closers-late rule.

Pick No. 5 (161 overall): Chris Perez
Preseason projection: 31 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 72 K, 64 IP
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

Perez was lights-out last year but didn’t receive many save opportunities in Cleveland. I believe he’ll become the next Joakim Soria, being a pitcher on a bad team who sports a good enough ERA and WHIP to be valuable. He will have 20-plus saves and could easily surpass 30 if the Indians play close games.

Pick No. 6 (162 overall): Adam Jones
Preseason projection: .288 AVG, 21 HR, 9 SB, 87 R, 77 RBI, 592 PA
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times

He’s got loads of skill, but the hopes of a 30/30 skill set have been successfully dashed. The possibilities of a decent average and solid runs and home run totals make the “other” Adam Jones a fun third outfielder for my team. Anything near where James has him projected would be nice for my fake team.

Pick No. 7 (163 overall): Brandon Morrow
Preseason projection: 162 IP, 9 W, 3.78 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 173 K
Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

Morrow and I have a strange love-hate relationship. I did not enjoy him when he was with my hometown Mariners, but I plan on drafting him quite often in 2011. Morrow’s ERA was really inflated last year—he was absolutely remarkable from June to August. I’m pretty excited to see if he can sustain his success over a full season, and I’m willing to take a bit of a chance and put him on my roster because of the possible reward involved here.

Pick No. 8 (164 overall): John Axford
Preseason projection: 33 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 74 K, 63 IP
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner

Now, finally, closers are starting to come off the board. Other players who are being picked are further down on my list, and there are still plenty of good starting pitchers and position players out there. Axford remains—remember, I’d considered him as early as Round 8, and here he still is. I take a quick look at the projections tab on the MDC app, and realize that one more closer will put me in good stead for saves. Hearkening back to the strategy outlined in my winning article, Axford can also help me with WHIP and ERA: He is a terrific young pitcher who made the most of his shot last year, and is closing for an improved Brewers team.

Pick No. 9 (165 overall) Coco Crisp
Preseason projection: .273 AVG, 7 HR, 27 SB, 58 R, 40 RBI, 409 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches

Someone jokingly said in the draft, "With your next pick, draft Coco Crisp". So I did. Do not take Coco Crisp in your drafts.

But I will say one quick thing: The Oakland Athletics are not the same Oakland A's you read about in Moneyball (although maybe they should be the way the team has been winning games the past four years). These players do run—Crisp swiped 32 bags last year and Rajai Davis has stolen 91 in the past two years. If you really want a speedster in the last round or a waiver wire pick up, then Crisp is your man. But otherwise, don't draft him.

Pick No. 10 (166 overall) Ian Stewart
Preseason projection: .260 AVG, 26 HR, 7 SB, 84 R, 86 RBI, 595 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

I wasn't too enthused to be picking from the scraps to fill the hot corner and took the next best third base option with some semblance of upside, Ian Stewart. The numbers for Stewart last year were a bit disappointing: He played some 25 fewer games than the year prior. The silver linings to Stewart's 2010 season were his increase in batting average to nearly a .260 clip, thanks to a vastly improved line drive rate, and a continued decline in his strikeout rate. The Bill James projection seems slightly optimistic, but at age 25, Stewart is a reasonable proposition to post 20 home runs and a .260 average, with a chance to better that to a line closer to the James projection.

Pick No. 11 (167 overall) Joel Hanrahan
Preseason projection: 24 SV, 4.56 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 73 K, 71 IP
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

The closer I wanted to take here was Axford, but he went a few picks before me, so I had to move on to “plan B,” which was Hanrahan. I got some ridicule for the pick, most of which pointed to how bad the Pirates are as a team, but it's important to remember that even bad teams provide save opportunities. Also, being that the Pirates are likely to have to scrape out most of their wins, it's likely that the games they win will provide save chances.

Those drafting Hanrahan are most likely concerned about the possibility of Evan Meek either vulturing save chances or claiming the closer role all by his lonesome. I am not as concerned; Hanrahan's great strikeout rate last year (12.92 K/9) has me believing he should be the clear favorite. His fastball/slider combo should play nicely at the end of games; his slider was a wipeout pitch last year, posting a 15.0 run value according to FanGraphs data. Toss in consecutive seasons with a K/9 above 10.0 and swinging strike rates above 13 percent, and it looks like the high strikeout totals of last season weren't an aberration.

Pick No. 12 (168 overall): Joe Nathan
Preseason projection: 6 W, 34 SV, 1.99 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 82 K, 68 IP
Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times

After a brief run of relievers coming off the board, I figured Nathan would be a steal at this point in the draft. According to the Twins front office, Nathan has been throwing quite a bit over the offseason and no setbacks have been reported. Adjusting for age, I am expecting 35-plus saves. Even with a few notches off his strikeout rate he should still be among the top 10 relievers next season.

Round 15

Pick No. 1 (169 overall): Dustin Ackley
Preseason projection: .239 AVG, 3 HR, 5 SB, 29 R, 19 RBI, 255 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times

I’ll admit that when last season ended I was pretty down on Ackley based on what I heard from a lot of prospect mavens, but then I saw enough of his Arizona Fall League games, and it all changed.

I know he isn’t guaranteed a spot, but I am gambling on Ackley performing well enough before the season begins to land a starting gig. If things go right, it wouldn’t be too unbelievable to expect a .280 batting average with 10-15 stolen bases; although he will be a bit streaky it may be best to use Ackley as a trade piece early in the season (preferably during a week where he is hitting .350 and teasing us with a boatload of doubles).

Pick No. 2 (170 overall): Craig Kimbrel
Preseason projection: 25 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 100 K, 63 IP
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

Notice a theme with the first two closers I selected? No, not that they could be in a committee (though that is a possibility for each), but that they are both strikeout monsters! More so than Hanrahan, Kimbrel racked up an impressive rate of strike threes last year, punching out 17.42 K/9. No, that's not a typo: He struck out almost two batters per inning pitched. Sure, the sample was small at the major league level, just 20.2 innings, but, he posted 13.42 K/9 in Triple-A in 55.2 innings. The potential for 100-plus strikeouts from a reliever makes up for the possibility of sacrificing saves by not selecting a better-entrenched closer.

Pick No. 3 (171 overall): Jonathan Broxton
Preseason projection: 33 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 77 K, 60 IP
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

One of the intriguing questions I had going in was how far Broxton was going to fall in the draft. Inevitably, his stock was going down by some distance, given a very poor second half and his eventual unseating as the Dodgers' closer. That said, Broxton is worth the 15th round discount of a gamble. Much has been made about Broxton losing a couple of miles per house off his fastball, but that's no reason to be so overly concerned as to take less-than-sure things such as Craig Kimbrel and Joe Nathan ahead of him.

Broxton's command was off, leading him to throw too many pitches per batter, and it didn't help that manager Joe Torre trotted him out in a few non-save situations beforfe Broxton lost the closing job. Also, keep in mind that Broxton still averaged 95 mph on the gun when throwing the heater, a similar speed to his terrific 2007 season. It's difficult to pick out the cause of Broxton's struggles in 2010 (fatigue, injury, mechanics?), but if his fastball is back up to speed, he's certainly a more than decent bet to regain his usual form.

Pick No. 4 (172 overall) Ricky Romero
Preseason projection: 14 W, 4.31 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 176 K, 213 IP
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches

Romero strikes out an average number (7.3 to 7.6 K/9) which would have been all right if he didn't walk close to four every nine innings. A Minnesota Twins pitcher can get away with a 7.5 K/9 because they don't allow walks. But something about a guy who barely has a 2.0 K/BB ratio doesn't sit right with me.

Walks already hurt a pitcher's WHIP, and if that pitcher doesn't have the strikeout potential to make sure his walked guys don't score runs, well, then there goes the ERA as well. Someone in your league probably thinks Romero will turn a corner and be awesome. Don't be that guy.

Pick No. 5 (173 overall): Brad Lidge
Preseason projection: 34 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 72 K, 63 IP
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner

It’s a mock, right?

Somehow the guys in this league aren’t valuing saves. Lidge is a Jekyll/Hyde pitcher, but he was fabulous for the latter part of the year last year, posting a 0.73 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in his final 26 appearances. Even when he stank, he never really left the mix for saves. He's going to get plenty of save opportunities with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels as the first four starters in Philly. I figure if I grab Lidge, the best that will happen is that I will dominate the saves category and get decent peripherals; the worst is that I’ll end up just dominating the saves category. If Lidge goes south, I can always bench him and I’ll still have plenty of saves. There are still good position players out there, and I am hoping I can set off one last panic (maybe), one last run of closers that will drop a good position player to me.

Pick No. 6 (174 overall): Michael Cuddyer
Preseason projection: .276 AVG, 16 HR, 5 SB, 73 R, 70 RBI, 521 PA
Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

What can I say? I needed a third baseman (even though he doesn’t qualify as such on MDC). It appears that Cuddy was hurt by Target Field, or is possibly just undergoing some serious regression. Cuddyer may not be spectacular, but he’s a solid player who isn’t going to hurt you if he plays every day.

Pick No. 7 (175 overall): Alfonso Soriano
Preseason projection: .257 AVG, 24 HR, 9 SB, 68 R, 66 RBI, 521 PA
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times

Soriano was my least favorite pick up to this point. I was starting to feel that I was losing some of the power categories so I reached for Soriano. With that said, he can still hit, and I refuse to accept the previous two seasons as the new Soriano. He’s a solid fourth outfielder. I just don’t know if I would take him if I did the draft over again.

Pick No. 8 (176 overall): Tim Hudson
Preseason projection: 15 W, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 137 K, 226 IP
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

He missed all of 2009 and came back Chris Carpenter-style in 2010. A 2.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP were spectacular and the 140 strikeouts were a bonus considering the former numbers. We're not sure he could sustain such low ERA and WHIP totals in 2011. The low strikeouts are probably more fact than fiction and a 3.50 ERA with 140 strikeouts aren't as enticing as the 2.83 ERA. He was drafted in the 15th round last year after having missed an entire season. This year, after pitching 200 innings of sub 3.00 ERA, he still goes in the 15th round.

Pick No. 9 (177 overall): Matt Thornton
Preseason projection: 4 W, 2 SV, 2.95 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 68 K, 61 IP
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

Not that I needed the strikeouts (my pitching staff thus far consists of Josh Johnson, Dan Haren, Max Scherzer, Colby Lewis, Ricky Nolasco and Drew Storen), but Thornton is another strong pitcher who I felt was being undervalued in the draft. Even if Thornton were not a closer, his numbers pitching out of relief would warrant high draft consideration. At 35, his fastball averages more than 95 mph. He struck out more than 10 batters per nine each of the past three seasons (career high 12.02 K/9 mark in 2010), kept the walks under control (posting a BB/9 under 3.00), and limited the number of runners on base (WHIP under 1.10 in each of the past three seasons). Thornton has also kept the ball in the yard, allowing a total of only 13 home runs over the past three seasons (200.1 innings, 0.58 HR/9). Having the closer job is just gravy; expect as many saves as Bobby Jenks accrued, on average, from 2006-2009.

Pick No. 10 (178 overall): Jason Bay
Preseason projection: .267 AVG, 21 HR, 10 SB, 75 R, 78 RBI, 534 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL

Just a guess: He'll hit more than six homers (his 2010 total). No symptoms of post-concussion iffiness, but a run-producing bargain in a cavernous position.

Pick No. 11 (179 overall): Domonic Brown
Preseason projection: .288 AVG, 26 HR, 28 SB, 84 R, 94 RBI, 596 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

If you close your eyes and then open them up in a couple of years, that gaudy projection for Brown might make sense. Right now, though, it looks like premature drooling. Rookies don't tend to enter the league and become Bobby Abreu near his prime. Dude doesn't even have a clear starting role at the moment. I'm not a big fan of the outfielders drafted around him (Jason Bay, Alfonso Soriano, Tyler Colvin) so maybe I just won't be drafting an outfielder at this point in a real draft.

Pick No. 12 (180 overall): Tyler Colvin.
Preseason projection: .259 AVG, 24 HR, 9 SB, 76 R, 75 RBI, 549 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys

A bit of a homer pick (literally and figuratively), as I’m a Cubs fan and like Colvin’s power potential this late in the draft. His batting average is taxing, of course, and there is the risk that he won’t even be starting when the season begins. Kosuke Fukudome currently holds down right field and the acquisition of Carlos Pena eliminates any chance of Colvin taking over at first base, which was speculated at the end of last year. Still, we know the drill with Fukudome and so do the Chicago Cubs, so a decision to go with one of their top prospects over a post-April lame duck wouldn’t surprise me, or Bill James, apparently. Another year of development should bring improvement in batting average and 25-home run potential. A handful of stolen bases doesn’t hurt either.

Round 16

Pick No. 1 (181 overall): James Shields.
Preseason projection: 11 W, 4.06 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 187 K, 204 IP
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys

Shields is in for a major regression in a lot of luck categories, such as HR/FB ratio, BABIP, and left on base-percentage. All of this is exhibited in the full 1.46 run difference between his ERA and xFIP. With these corrections, we could see something closer to the 2007-08 Shields who posted ERA numbers in the range of 3.7. Add in a career-best strikeout rate of 8.28 per nine innings and you have a major bounce-back candidate who will be wonderful for my backend rotation.

Pick No. 2 (182 overall): Alcides Escobar
Preseason projection: .272 AVG, 5 HR, 20 SB, 69 R, 46 RBI, 529 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

Shortstops this year are an ugly bunch outside of Hanley Ramireznd Troy Tulowitzki. If you don't get one of them, Escobar doesn't seem like a bad option. I don't know where his 46-steals-in-2009 speed went, but I'm willing to wager it returns somewhat this year. Escobar does make contact often and with a BABIP rebound, I see a .280/30 steal season within reach. I'll take that.

Pick No. 3 (183 overall): Gio Gonzalez
Preseason projection: 13 W, 3.99 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 212 K, 212 IP
Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL

I missed out on Brett Anderson before. Why not grab a different talented Athletics youngster? His control is spotty, but Gonzalez's second-half improvements, groundball-iness and budding dominance are worth a shot here. He'll have a better year than Trevor Cahill, who went almost four rounds earlier in this draft.

Pick No. 4 (184 overall): Angel Pagan
Preseason projection: .289 AVG, 10 HR, 28 SB, 77 R, 58 RBI, 633 PA
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

Pagan, like Matt Murton, was an outfielder I was sad to see the Cubs so eager to give up on, especially considering who replaced them (and their costs): Alfonso Soriano (eight years/$136 million) and Kosuke Fukudome (four years/$48 million). Last season, Pagan got his first shot at a full time job and he did not disappoint, stealing 37 bases and hitting 11 home runs in 151 games, while batting .290. Pagan does not walk a whole ton (career 7.2 percent rate), but he rarely strikes out (16.5 percent rate on the Mets, 1,009 plate appearances), drives the ball well (career 19.3 percent line drive rate), and has excellent foot speed (career 7.2 speed score, 6.9 mark last season). Pagan is what Asdrubal Cabrera or Mike Aviles would be if they played outfield and stole three times as many bases. He is not a flashy brand name, but he will provide strong value as a balanced commodity (four category player). I expect a repeat of last year, only with better run and RBI totals with both Beltran and Bay in the lineup every day.

Pick No. 5 (185 overall): Jhoulys Chacin
Preseason projection: 9 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 138 K, 151 IP
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

Bam. He struck out a batter per inning in his first season in the big leagues and while we gave him more than enough respect, the Rockies didn't. He's the second best pitcher on the team and the departure of Jeff Francis should open up a rotation spot for the 22-year-old. He finished with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP and sabermetrically should have been slightly better. The sky is the limit.

Pick No. 6 (186 overall): Francisco Cordero
Preseason projection: 38 SV, 3.33 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 75 K, 73 IP
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times

Another pick I wasn’t too fond of. That makes two in a row if you’re keeping track. I grabbed Carlos Marmol earlier in the draft, but all the younger relief pitching prospects I had pegged were gone. Cordero was a best available pick. He’s still good for 40 saves, but his skills are deteriorating, and Aroldis Chapman the Great is waiting. I wanted the Aroldis handcuff, but I couldn’t pull it off.

Pick No. 7 (187 overall): Ted Lilly
Preseason projection: 212 IP, 12 W, 3.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 180 K
Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

One of the advantages of drafting a staff full of strikeouts is getting to take a guy like Lilly late without feeling bad about it. Lilly isn’t a stud, but he’ll help lower your WHIP without killing you in the strikeout department. He’s homer prone, but in this case I think I’ll make an exception.

Pick No. 8 (188 overall): Bobby Abreu
Preseason projection: 278 AVG, 17 HR, 20 SB, 82 R, 88 RBI, 628 PA
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner

Well, now I’ve had my fun with closers, and I need to turn my attention to thr outfield. I’m thinking about Jason Bay, but he gets picked up before it’s my turn. I begin focusing on Abreu, hoping he’ll fall to me.

To my thinking, Abreu should have been taken a while ago. He is certainly getting up in years, and I’ll take the under on all his numbers except batting average, but he is still a solid, professional hitter who will be in the middle of a decent Angels lineup. He hit .255 last year after never hitting below .280 since becoming a regular. It’s certainly possible that Abreu has completely lost it, but that tends to happen more to power players than line drive contact guys like Abreu. I figure he’s worth a shot. Jason Kubel is still out there among others, and I can find a replacement-type outfielder if need be. I’m realizing that I’ve now got Vlad, Carlos Lee and Abreu on my team, three pretty old guys who are all injury risks—but, hey, they may enjoy each other’s company playing on my team.

Pick No. 9 (189 overall): Fernando Rodney
Preseason Projection: 18 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 67 K, 74 IP
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches

I am confident that Angels manager Mike Scioscia will name Rodney the closer at the beginning of the season and once that happens, you can be sure that Rodney will remain the closer for the rest of the year. I know the Angels traded away Brian Fuentes right before the trading deadline last year, but as a rule, I love Angels closers because Scioscia is so loyal to his bullpen guys. In 2009, Fuentes led the league with 48 saves (and with 55 saves chances).
In 2008, K-Rod led the league with 62 saves (and 69 save opportunities). In 2007, K-Rod was fifth in the league in saves. Catch my drift?

I understand Rodney isn't such a good pitcher, but you know what? Neither Punchy Rodriguez nor Fuentes was even close to the best bullpen guy on his team, but their manager was loyal to them and let them close. Now, the one caveat is to see who Scioscia does end up naming as his closer because it's not a lock that Rodney will be the guy. But for a mock draft done in mid-January, I'm happy with my closer pick.

Pick No. 10 (190 overall): Johan Santana
Preseason projection: 15 W, 3.09 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 181 K, 195 IP (James' projections were made before it was known that Santana would be missing time to begin the season.)
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

I'll say mea culpa on this one, as it is my tendency to draft impulsively and this was the case in a number of earlier draft picks. I think Santana is a worthy 16th-round pick, as he remains an efficient pitcher who can work his way around giving up a good deal of flyballs. That is, of course, if he could actually pitch 170 innings. I didn't realize until after the draft that Santana might not be able to return until the second half of the season. D'oh. The offseason rust got the best of me here.

Pick No. 11 (191 Overall) Jordan Zimmermann
Preseason projection: 8 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 120 K, 132 IP
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

I'll keep my write-up on Jordan Zimmermann brief here, but for those interested in reading more of my thoughts on him, check out the fantasybaseballcafe for a recent article on Zimm. In short, there is a lot to like about him. He induces ground balls at a healthy clip, has struck out nearly a batter an inning in his major league time (not an easy feat for a starting pitcher), and he limits the free passes. While his innings will be monitored in 2011 because he missed most of 2010 recovering from Tommy John surgery, he was able to return to the mound last year and show off near pre-surgery radar gun readings and control.

I'd be happy with 130-140 innings of Zimmermann pitching to his career xFIP of 3.57 and a WHIP in the 1.25-1.30 range with nearly a strikeout-per-inning. Keeping in mind that he'll likely be pitched on a regular schedule and shut down early, as opposed to having starts skipped so that he'll be available to pitch in a playoff chase (he is pitching for the Nationals, after all) you can add replacement level starter stats to those totals at the end of the year as well. (Then, of course, starting pitchers will be facing watered down expanded rosters in September).

Pick No. 12 (192 overall): Ike Davis
Preseason projection: .283 AVG, 23 HR, 3 SB, 78 R, 80 RBI, 598 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times

His final 30 games last season showed us that he has a lot of power and could develop into an attractive corner infielder option. I know Citi Field suppresses the number of fly balls going over its fence: Davis’ home-run-to-fly-ball ratio is much better on the road (10.7 percent at home vs. 13.3 percent on the road). As a slugger, Davis won’t hurt you in the batting average department and if he can spill over 25 home runs, I’ll be happy.

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 5:00am (2) Comments

Monday, February 14, 2011

Fluke watch - Clayton Kershaw

Clayton Kershaw is turning 23 in March. Kershaw has two full seasons under his belt with ERAs under 3.00. Over the last two years, he's No. 15 in Fangraphs' WAR. Over the last two years Kershaw has been a very, very good pitcher, with FIPs of 3.12 or better and xFIPs of 3.9 or lower. Moreover, he has been a pretty good strikeout pitcher, punching out more than a batter per inning, and last year he even improved his walk rate to a reasonable level (3.57 BB/9).

Really, the only area that Kershaw has been deficient for the fantasy player has been in the win column due to the failures of his own team. This may still be a problem in 2011, but that's not Kershaw's fault.

But how about the parts of Kershaw's own performance that he can control? Can he continue to keep up that great performance or perhaps even improve further?

Well, let's take a look at his pitches:

Kershaw's pitch repertoire

Kershaw broke into the major leagues with only three pitches: a fastball, change-up and curveball. Against same-handed batters (left-handers), Kershaw was solely a fastball-curveball pitcher. Against opposite-handed batters (righties), Kershaw was still mainly a fastball-curveball pitcher, but he mixed in a change-up every so often.

In the start of his second season (2009), Kershaw continued using these pitches in the same manner. But in June of 2009, Kershaw began to use a slider in addition to his curveball. By August, Kershaw had begun to use the slider almost as frequently as the curveball.

In 2010, the change in Kershaw's repertoire was complete: against same-handed batters, he began to basically stop using the curveball in favor of the slider. Against opposite-handed batters, Kershaw also used the slider more frequently than the curveball, using the slider twice as frequently as the curve (and, actually, he began to use the slider more frequently compared to the curveball as the year went on).

While Kershaw's fastball usage has been unaffected by the emergence of the slider, Kershaw's change-up has almost entirely disappeared. Essentially, in 2010 Kershaw was strictly a fastball-slider pitcher against left-handed batters, while he was a fastball-slider-curveball pitcher against right-handed batters.

The movement and velocity of Kershaw's fastball, curveball, and slider are shown in the tables below (for the purposes of this article, I'm going to ignore the change-up, given that Kershaw used it infrequently in 2008-2009 and basically stopped it using in 2010.):

Year	Pitch Type	Average Velocity	Average Horizontal Spin Deflection	Average Vertical Spin Deflection
2008	Fastball	94.37 MPH	+2.58	+10.6
2009	Fastball	93.99 MPH	+2.92	+12.94
2010	Fastball	92.46 MPH	+2.01	+10.98

Year	Pitch Type	Average Velocity	Average Horizontal Spin Deflection	Average Vertical Spin Deflection
2008	Curveball	73.53 MPH	-3.57	-7.94
2009	Curveball	72.27 MPH	-4.05	-7.02
2010	Curveball	73.14 MPH	-2.51	-8.93

Year	Pitch Type	Average Velocity	Average Horizontal Spin Deflection	Average Vertical Spin Deflection
2009	Slider	80.77 MPH	-4.73	+0.64
2010	Slider	81.31 MPH	-3.76	-0.16

As you can see, relatively little has changed in Kershaw's three main pitches over the last three years in terms of how these pitches moved. It should be noted that Kershaw's fastball has decreased in velocity each of the last two years, by about one mile per hour per year. Kershaw HEAVILY depends upon his fastball, so this bears watching.

If the fastball velocity continues to drop, his results could be greatly affected. This is something to keep an eye on in spring training and April of the upcoming year, though note: Kershaw's drop in velocity didn't happen in the '09-'10 off season, but mainly happened in June of 2010, which makes one wonder about the possibility of injury or something. It could, of course, just be a calibration issue, but keep an eye on this in 2011.

The results of Kershaw's pitches

Against Left-Handed Batters:

First, as should be obvious from Kershaw's splits, his pitches are a nightmare for lefties. Kershaw throws the fastball 73.5 percent of the time against left-handed batters, with the slider making up most of the rest of his pitches (24.0%). And that fastball is incredible: Kershaw has gotten a swinging strike rate on the fastball above 14 percent each of the last three years, with it hitting a career high rate of 16.95 percent in 2010.

For reference, the average fastball has a swinging strike rate around 5-6 percent....meaning Kershaw's fastball gets a swinging strike almost three times more frequently than the average fastball against these batters. That is utterly ridiculous. Kershaw's fastball has lost its ability to get ground balls against these batters a little bit each year, but the swinging strike rate is so high that it doesn't matter*.

*How does Kershaw do this? Quite simply, he's incredibly good at locating his fastball in the up-and-away part of the strike zone, an area likely to get more strikeouts with the fastball. Despite seeming to target this spot, Kershaw does not miss the strike zone very often with this pitch, and the pitch doesn't miss inside (into the power area of batters) very often either. He is VERY impressive.

Similarly, Kershaw's slider is terrific against left-handed batters, with swinging strike rates above 20 percent each of the last two years.

All in all, if you have Kershaw and he's facing a team filled with left-handed bats, you should expect some really good results. Unfortunately, 79 percent of the batters that Kershaw faces each year are right-handed batters.

Against Right-Handed Batters

Against right-handed batters, Kershaw has become a fastball-slider-curve ball pitcher, as mentioned above, with the change-up being used on rare occasions. Since the change-up has become basically irrelevant (he threw 29 total the last four months of the season), I'm going to ignore it here.

Once again, Kershaw is primarily a fastball pitcher, using the pitch over 70% of the time. His aim with this pitch doesn't seem as specific as it is against left-handed batters; the pitch is aimed on the inside part of the plate (similar to his spot against left-handed batters), though it does hit the middle of the plate a bit. As against left-handed batters, the pitch is primarily aimed high in the strike zone, but not too high...the pitch is still in the strike zone very frequently (more on this in a bit).

The end result of this aim is that the fastball's results are much closer to average against righties than against lefties. The pitch's swinging strike rate actually decreased to a career low in 2010, down from 7.6 percent in 2009 to 5.8 percent in 2010, essentially making the pitch go from above average at getting whiffs (by a little bit) to barely below average.

The pitch's groundball rate (43.7 percent) in 2010 was above average, but Kershaw's GB rate on this pitch has fluctuated each year (from 45.0 percent to 39.7 percent to 43.7 percent), so it's likely this is just a random result rather than a true change.

All in all, however, the fastball was still a pretty good pitch against these batters, even when you take into account BABIP and HR/FB oddities. It is, however, not as insane a pitch as it is against left-handed batters.

The slider was a revelation for Kershaw against right-handed batters in 2010. Traditionally, a slider is a pitch used mainly against same-handed batters, with the change-up taking its place against opposite-handed batters. Alternatively, you'll see pitchers use a curveball instead to handle opposite-handed batters.

Kershaw, on the other hand, has marginalized his change-up and begun to use the slider against opposite- (right-) handed batters, as opposed to what you'd expect. And, in fact, after a rough start with this pitch in 2009, it was tremendously successful in 2010.

In 2010, the swinging strike percentage of the pitch against right-handers increased to 17.7 percent from 11.0 percent, and the groundball rate improved from 18 percent to 33 percent (though, admittedly, the 18 percent result in 2009 was based upon only 11 batted balls and was probably just bad luck).

The end result is that the slider has given Kershaw a second deadly weapon that he uses most frequently in two-strike situations (though even in these situations, Kershaw's most frequently used pitch is his fastball).

The emergence of the slider is particularly good given that Kershaw's curveball, which looked so good when he first came up, has greatly decreased in value. When Kershaw broke into the majors in 2008, the curveball got an okay swinging strike rate of 9.9 percent and an amazing 70.6 percent GB rate, though that was only on 34 balls put into play.

In 2009, the swinging strike rate dropped a tiny bit to right-handed batters to 8.4 percent, but the GB rate dropped off a cliff to 38.5 percent, though this was on a small sample size of 39 balls in play.

In 2010, the drop-off in efficiency was seen in the swinging strike rate, plummeting to 6.6 percent as batters simply didn't swing at the pitch as frequently as they had before. The GB rate recovered somewhat, though the sample size this year was even smaller (16 balls in play). As it is, this drop in effectiveness is not particularly worrisome due to the fact that the curveball's use has decreased greatly in favor of the slider.

It should be noted that the slider was used more and more frequently compared to the curve in three of the last four months of the 2010 season. Thus, in April and spring training, we should keep an eye on what breaking ball Kershaw is using most frequently.

A good sign toward the future: Kershaw's extreme accuracy at hitting the strike zone.

One thing that needs to be noted about Kershaw is this: he became much better at hitting the strike zone in 2010. In fact, using one measure of the strike zone (a wide zone, minimum 1500 pitches thrown), he hit the strike zone with his pitches at the 10th-best rate in all of the majors. According to another measurement of the strike zone (one that measures a smaller zone, minimum 1500 pitches thrown), he was the 13th best.

Now, Kershaw's walk rate did improve from 2009 to 2010 a good bit, but still, his walk rate was actually 79th in the league out of 92 qualifying pitchers! How does that make sense?

Well it does make some sense: in reality, walk rate doesn't correlate very strongly with a pitcher's strike-zone rate (after all, pitchers do throw out of the zone on purpose on 0-2 and other counts where the odds of it causing a walk are extremely low). That said, there is some correlation (higher strike-zone rate, lower BB rate), and Kershaw actually has the highest walk rate of any pitcher with a strike-zone rate equivalent to, or higher than, his own rate.

This suggests that we would expect Kershaw, if he can keep up his improved accuracy, to improve his BB rate further. This makes sense of course: the strike-zone rate shows that Kershaw hit the strike zone at a very impressive rate, making it likely that he will use this ability to improve his walk rate in the future (as opposed to some pitchers that have an inability to hit the strike zone and, thus, are unlikely to lower their walk rate).

Conclusion

Clayton Kershaw is a REALLY good pitcher and is likely to continue to be such a good pitcher in the coming season. A PitchF/X analysis shows only one possible red flag: his fastball velocity has decreased each year. But the same analysis reveals more factors—the emergence of a strong breaking pitch in the slider and his improved accuracy—that show he could take another step toward being one of the best pitchers in the league.

For fantasy purposes, I'd consider Kershaw highly and would be willing to count on him for everything but wins (for obvious reasons). So though he might not get the press as some of the other amazing pitchers on bad teams, I'd consider him a guy who could potentially be in the same category by next year. There's real potential there, which he looks really close to realizing. And even if he doesn't, he's already a great pitcher.

Posted by Josh Smolow at 5:10am (2) Comments

Preparation H2H, part 1: ride-or-die

“The will to win is important, but the will to prepare is vital."
- Joe Paterno, Penn State Football Coach

Everybody wants to win, but few have the drive to prepare. Since I started writing for The Hardball Times, I learned there are a lot of well-educated fantasy players out there who know a lot more than I do. I like to think that what I lack in knowledge of vague sabrmetric statistical applications, I make up for it in targeted preparation.

I think most experts would agree that preparation is the key to all success. No matter if you are a head-to-head streamer or a Rotisserie auction junkie, perpetual winning is tied to your unending preparation.

I’m not sure if I actually have an area of expertise, but I grew up playing in a significant amount of head-to-head leagues. There are those in our fantasy grouping that would consider the idea of a head-to-head league as sheer blasphemy.

Derek Ambrosino would be one of the H2H detractors. His points are solid as a rock, and like a fine wine matures, my opinion of the way fantasy should be played has changed more to an agreement with Derek. Why add more luck to a game that is already entrenched with it?

The real truth is that mainstream fantasy baseball players seek to get the same enjoyment out of fantasy baseball as they would out of playing real baseball. This “feeling” is best achieved in the H2H format.

I don’t think anyone would debate the weekly battle that ensues out of a head-to-head league can be intense, especially when it involves a co-worker or buddies from high school—or better yet, both. The rivalries and trash talk born out of these leagues spills over into everyday life. A roto league that has weekly lineup changes cannot possibly generate the same kind of passion.

With all that said, the driving force behind this article is to better understand how to be competitive in a head-to-head fantasy baseball league. We will assume that the league follows the standard ESPN settings with daily lineup changes.

Streaming is, for lack of a better word, good. I’d say streaming is the equivalent to greed. Enjoying money is one thing, but when it consumes your soul it becomes unhealthy. Streaming can consume your fantasy baseball team.

A commissioner can limit moves by a number of ways like instituting a FAAB budget, but streaming at its simplest form is unavoidable in all H2H leagues. Understanding how to “stream” properly and ethically can be a stepping-stone to a championship.

Here’s an example. In 2010, you drafted Brandon Webb as your ace. You missed out on picking up Colby Lewis, and you hesitated on Shaun Marcum because of the injuries. Now your team is without a true ace. Forced to scour the waiver wire, you concentrate on two-start pitchers and favorable matchups.

Living by that strategy can be tiresome and risky. To properly incorporate what I’m going to call streaming is by using a technique we’ll call "ride-or-die". The key to finding a replacement for Webb will not be found in a constant add/drop roller coaster. The art of the waiver wire is entangled into the philosophy of ride-or-die.

Basically, I will examine the waiver wire of my league as well as the minor leagues, and I’ll find a potential stopgap. I like to focus on guys with the most talent that have for some reason or another suffered a value drop. Usually their value has dipped due to momentary ineffectiveness, lack of playing time, or injury. Rookies and injured players can be the best ride-or-die prospects.

Another thing I like to see is an extreme upswing in performance right before I add the player. For a pitcher, that may be as little as two extraordinary starts. For a hitter, we’re looking at more of a week or two of solid statistical output. I like to hear humbleness by the player and praise from the manager.

To properly evaluate a potential ride-or-die pick up, you must use the tools easily available to you. Whether you use our lovely THT Forecasts or the piles of data on Fangraphs, incorporating statistical output with a visual scouting job is essential. Understanding statistics and understanding the baseball being played on the field are great in themselves, but if used together, they can be epic in the process of furthering your baseball team.

Barring the use of a FAAB budget, a waiver wire pickup shouldn’t cost you much. Once a player makes it through the judgment process and nestles himself into my starting rotation, I will tend to be more forgiving of poor performance, though that forgiveness always has a tipping point.

Always remember the key to a successful ride-or-die mindset is knowing when the ride has died. That thin line can be a difference between having Jose Bautista for some of 2010 or all of 2010.

When the ride for your pickup has ended, you’ll just need to give him a slap on the rear and show him the door. There is no room for being a fan or having loyalty in fantasy baseball. Then, you let the process repeat itself. This cycle, if run correctly, can really bandage the wound an injury may cause.

Lastly, I must say in no way am I endorsing the strategy of all forms of streaming. The type of streaming I am mostly talking about here is where a player with an inferior team uses the free agent list like a buffet and runs pitchers and/or hitters to accumulate the most stats possible with disregard to respecting the game itself. A streamer of this sort, I despise. There is no skill involved in this form of streaming.

I know we play the game to win, and are free to dabble in all the strategic devices available to us, but like my dad always said, there comes a point in every man’s life where he has to choose if he’s going to do right no matter what the consequences. Losing money is not cool, but even in a silly game of fantasy baseball, losing my pride is unacceptable.

My advice in dealing with a negative streamer is to outsmarting them. Like they say, beat them to the punch. Normally, a H2H league follows a 5X5, 6X6, or 7X7 category format. See which categories your competitor may be trying to target and beat him to the punch.

Most of the time, a streamer will attack the bulk categories like HR, RBI, SB, W, K, SV and categories they may already be performing well in. In times past where I have had to deal with a streamer, I had to release a few players I was prospecting on and out-stream him. In a perfect world, your league should have parameters that prevent this type of play, but sometimes that just isn’t the case, especially in head-to-head leagues.

If you’re having trouble deciphering the waiver wire of your league or feel that you may be unable to “stream” effectively, we’ll have several columns throughout the year by Josh Shepardson and Jeffrey Gross that should help break down the players that will inevitably provide the most value as the season progresses. I am also available for insight and quandaries as we enter our 2011 journey to glory together.

Posted by Ben Pritchett at 5:11am (14) Comments

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

The Verdict: We need a fantasy constitution

According to the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, over 28 million Americans currently play some form of fantasy sports. That represents a significant percentage of the population, which is indicative of how popular and prevalent fantasy sports have become in our society. The demographics that comprise these 28 million Americans are extremely diverse in gender, race, ethnicity, religion, age, household income, sexual orientation, and just about any other category you can think of. So what is one of the only commonalities amongst every American that plays fantasy sports? The answer is that each and every one of us is under the jurisdiction of the United States Constitution and the laws that were promulgated from its ratification.

"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America." — United States Constitution, Preamble

You may be wondering what the Founding Fathers’ ratification of the United States Constitution has to do with fantasy baseball. Granted, the Continental Congress did not convene in Philadelphia to do a fantasy baseball draft (although that is a pretty cool concept for an improv comedy sketch). However, the Founding Fathers knew that in order to maintain and uphold justice, a document containing the laws of the land in which everyone was subjected to was the best way to operate. The same can be said for how a fantasy baseball league should be governed. If a Constitution has worked for the United States for over 220 years, then it will work for your fantasy baseball league.

"We the people of various fantasy baseball leagues, in Order to form a more perfect League, establish Justice, insure league-wide Tranquility, provide for the common trade evaluation criteria, promote the general Welfare on draft day and beyond, and secure the Blessings of Position Eligibility to ourselves and our league websites, do ordain this Constitution for a fantasy baseball league." -- .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) - Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment

In most fantasy baseball leagues, there is a commissioner who is responsible for the overall administration and function of the league. He or she organizes the league and performs various tasks such as setting a draft date, setting up the league on whichever website it is hosted on, sending out reminders and updates to league members, collecting entry fees, creating rules and guidelines, implementing and enforcing these rules, evaluating or approving trades, and just about anything else that requires a decision to be made. Because fantasy baseball is usually played for a monetary award, people generally take the activity seriously and will challenge anything deemed to be unfair or unjust. At this point, the commissioner is now responsible for deciding what action to rake in response to complaints and challenges. This responsibility is constantly viewed under the proverbial microscope because more than likely the commissioner is also one of the league members and subjected to the very rules he or she created in the first place. Hence, the need for a league Constitution.

If a league constitution is created before the season begins, then everyone in the league will have actual notice of all rules, regulations, guidelines, and deadlines well in advance of any potential issues. This shifts the burden to the other league members to be held accountable for abiding by the league’s rules. One thing I have always done in the leagues where I am the commissioner is require that each league member sign and date the document. Once they send me their signature and affirmation, I now have written acknowledgment that they have read and understood the rules, and that they agree to be bound by the terms and conditions contained therein. This also provides the other league members with a sense of inclusion in the process because they are officially signing off on the rules of the league. I have consistently argued in the past that a league commissioner should have sole authority on almost any decision in order to effectively run and maintain league. However, it is also very important to include the other league members in various aspects of the process. There is a big distinction between being a decisive leader and an overbearing dictator.

In the event someone complains or challenges something, the commissioner can hopefully fall back on a specific rule or provision in the constitution to address that concern. In a perfect world, any issue that comes up would be specifically addressed in the constitution. However, we do not live in a perfect world so it is highly likely that something will come up that is not expressly addressed. My suggestion is to have language in the constitution that deals with the process of addressing issues of first impression. The process could be: 1) the commissioner confers with two additional league members and takes a majority vote to decide the issue; 2) take a league-wide vote to resolve the issue (not recommended); 3) consult an outside independent resource; or 4) the commissioner objectively looks at the issue and has sole authority to decide it, but agrees to consider looking into it further during the offseason to amend the constitution. While none of these will ever appease everyone all of the time, they at least provide some protection for the commissioner to be able to make certain decisions that are outside the scope of the constitution.

Another bit of advice for league commissioners is to include language in the constitution which states that no rules shall be changed, amended, or added in the middle of the season. You might argue that there could be a rule or provision that is so inherently prejudicial that it absolutely must be changed. My response would still be an emphatic “no.” Once a league commissioner softens up on one thing (even if it is justifiable) and changes a rule midseason, then every other rule is open for debate. An argument could be made that any rule is so critical and crucial that it must be amended. This can only lead to disaster. The commissioner is perfectly within his or her rights to say that the rules apply equally to everyone during the entire season, and any debate or conversation about changing such rules will be held after the season is over and in consideration for the next season.

A fantasy baseball league constitution may seem like an easy document to create, but in reality it is not. There are so many different aspects to the game that require rules and guidelines. Because there are so many different styles of fantasy baseball to play, no two league constitutions are alike. You must carefully craft the language used in each provision because there could come a time when the commissioner is called upon to interpret it. When modifying the rules to my own leagues’ constitutions, or when assisting others in drafting their leagues’ constitutions, the litmus test I always apply to see the strength of the language is “If there is a question or challenge about this rule, is there any answer other than yes or no?” Vagueness and ambiguity are a league commissioner’s worst enemy.

Just like the United States’ Constitution, a fantasy baseball league constitution is a living, breathing document. It should consist of a set of fair and just laws that govern the league and apply equally to all members. But it cannot always address every possible scenario that arises. That is why it is fluid in nature and can be amended from year to year by taking into account new and changing circumstances that arise. This is not to say that you can’t enjoy a fantasy baseball league that isn’t governed by a constitution. But you will notice a drastic difference in the overall functionality and administration of a league that is. The verdict is that every fantasy baseball league needs a constitution.

Posted by Michael Stein at 1:05am (9) Comments

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Monday, February 07, 2011

A beginner’s guide to auction draft nominations

Strategy No. 1: Never nominate a player you want

Strategy No. 2: Nominate players you do want (in conjunction with strategy No. 1)

Strategy No. 3: Nominate players only you want

Strategy No. 4: Trick your rivals into joining the party (with strategy No. 3)

Strategy No. 5: Bid on everybody, win few