THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Chris Ryan at 1:04am (8) Comments

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

The leadoff dropoff

Earlier this winter, The Hardball Times offered prospective fantasy baseball writers the opportunity to compete in a Hardball Times fantasy league. Entrants wrote fantasy baseball articles, the best of which would be chosen as our winner. While we could only choose one winner to play in the league (congratulations, Dave Chenok), we had so many great articles that we have decided to publish some of the best. This is one of those submissions.

Thinking of drafting Elvis Andrus next year? What about Denard Span or Austin Jackson? Hitting leadoff, particularly in the American League, may not be as valuable as you think.

In 2009, AL leadoff hitters averaged over 70 RBIs. In 2010, they averaged just over 54. Some fluctuation is expected, but a league-wide drop of over 16 RBIs is unprecedented. 54 RBIs is by far the lowest average in AL in the last ten years.

* Data reflects RBIs for whoever hit leadoff each game. For example, if Ichiro Suzuki played one game hitting in the number two position and got an RBI that game, that RBI would not be included in the data because he was not batting in the leadoff spot.

So what happened? Let’s take a look at some possible explanations.

1. “Year of the pitcher”
Given that run scoring declined from 2009 to 2010, we would naturally expect a decline in RBI totals. From 2009 to 2010, the average AL team had eight percent fewer total RBIs (decrease from 746 to 686). During the same period, the average number of RBI from AL leadoff hitters plummeted 23 percent (from 70 to 54).

The “year of the pitcher” may account for some of the missing RBIs, but there is obviously more going on here.

2. Eight/Nine hitters got on base less
I'm going to make a bold statement and say that it's easier to knock runs home when batting when the hitters in front of you reach base. Let’s examine the OBP of the eighth and ninth place hitters in the AL over the last 10 years.

From 2009 to 2010, OBP dropped across the board. AL No. 8 hitters dropped from .317 to .305 (-.012); AL No. 9 hitters dropped from .305 to .295 (-.010). However, we also observe that overall AL OBP dropped from .335 to .327 (- .008)

Given that the average AL hitter saw his OBP decline by .008, we see that AL eight and nine hitters posted an OBP only slightly lower than expected. This may account for some of the drop-off in leadoff hitter RBIs, but only a small portion at best.

3. Injuries
2010 saw significant injuries to some big name AL leadoff hitters, such as Brian Roberts and Jacoby Ellsbury. We could even throw Grady Sizemore in the mix, although none of his 128 ABs in 2010 was from the leadoff spot.

Let’s account for these injuries by estimating the RBI production of these players had they stayed healthy.

In 2010 Baltimore leadoff hitters combined for 46 RBIs. Meanwhile, Roberts has averaged about 64 RBIs over the last 3 years. Had Roberts been healthy, we can estimate he would have had 64 RBIs. Let’s add the difference (18 RBIs) to the data. In his best year (2009), Ellsbury connected for 60 RBIs in 154 games (on pace for 63). Meanwhile, Boston leadoff men knocked home 57 in 2010. Let’s add 6 RBIs to the data While we’re at it, let’s throw Grady a bone and double Cleveland’s 2010 leadoff man RBI total from 42 to 84.

What happens when we add an extra 66 RBIs (18 + 6 + 42) to the data? The average AL leadoff man RBI number increases from 54 to 59, which is still easily the lowest total in the last 10+ years.

4. Evolution of the game
So far we have seen that a variety of factors contribute slightly to the leadoff RBI drop-off. However, the most significant factor may actually be the evolution of the game. It is no secret that homerun totals are down. Managers are emphasizing speed and athleticism more, especially from the leadoff spot.

These days, we see players like Denard Span, Elvis Andrus, Ellsbury and Jackson occupying the leadoff role. Leadoff men who hit 20+ HR and 75+ RBI are becoming rare. Not long ago we had guys like Ian Kinsler and Sizemore hitting leadoff, but managers are reconstructing lineups to get these bats in the meat of the order. The NL still boasts guys like Brandon Phillips and Rickie Weeks, but would any of us be shocked to see them hit lower in the order in 2011?

So what does this mean for your fantasy team?

Leadoff batters are providing less value. Scoring 100+ runs is great, but when a player contributes just five HR and 55 RBI, he better be swiping bags left and right to make up the value. Furthermore, I was surprised to learn that of the 17 players who scored 100+ runs last season, only three were everyday leadoff hitters: Weeks, Derek Jeter, and Jackson. You don’t need leadoff hitters to be competitive in the runs scored category.

Speed has become more available. Every year there are players un-drafted in most fantasy leagues who post great SB and respectable supporting stats. The 2010 crop was no exception (Jose Tabata, Coco Crisp, Angel Pagan, Cliff Pennington, and Will Venable, to name a few). Given the growing emphasis Major League managers are placing on having speed and athleticism in the lineup, we are likely to see more of the same in 2011. You don’t need leadoff hitters to be competitive in the stolen bases category.

Leadoff hitters will certainly offer some value in 2011, but think twice before dropping $10 or a 10th round pick to grab Span or Jackson.

*All data courtesy of ESPN.com and MLB.com.

Posted by David Neumann at 5:26am (0) Comments

The Economist: Three observations about money and fantasy sports

In many ways, our identities are really nothing more than complex narratives we create about ourselves. Often those narratives are based on imperfect recollections. See, our memories don’t exactly work like the metaphorical file cabinet most believe them to be. In fact, there’s a lot more creativity and subjectivity to the memories that inform our everyday vision of self. When George Costanza uttered the jewel, “it’s not a lie if you believe it,” we all laughed it away as the apotheosis self-delusion and the very essence of his character, but many neuroscientists would concede that he was on to something. Oh, this is a fantasy baseball column, isn’t it? Well, I’ll get there in a second.

Some of the visions we have about ourselves are more empirically verifiable than others. I could create a self-convincing story that I am quite wealthy, but this can be verified by checking my bank account, and of course I’d be confronted with my own dishonesty every time I did so. Part of my personal narrative is that I’m a fantasy baseball expert, whatever that means. Now, this is not going to be another column waxing philosophic about what it actually means to be an “expert.” I think that ground has been covered, and for today at least, I’m unconcerned with semantics. Today, I’m concerned with the empirical.

Earlier this week, I spent better part of an hour performing an exercise that should have taken me five minutes were I a good record keeper. I went back through all my fantasy sports leagues since 2004 (this date marks the beginning of my current account) and dug around to find entry fees and profits. Playing fantasy sports is often likened to playing the market; to being a good investor. So, I wanted to measure my success the way an investor does, by return on investment.

I didn’t know exactly how profitable I thought the uncompromising ledger would reveal me to be, but knowing what I know about how people tend to build their personal narratives, I figured the reality would be that I’d be a little less successful than whatever I’d settle on believing I was. I fashion myself to be pretty good at fantasy basketball and fantasy football too, to the extent one can be good at something as random as fantasy football. When I ran the numbers, I was a bit surprised.

Across all fantasy sports, I profited a total 11.8 percent over the past seven seasons. This is a tad lower than I would have guessed. In baseball alone, however, I profited 36 percent over the same time period, which strikes me as rather impressive. Now, I’m not certain how to look at these numbers as analogous to an investment in a mutual fund or something because I didn’t invest a lump sum back in 2004. So, I wouldn’t consider this an ROI in that sense, but rather the aggregated performance of a series of investment decisions made over seven years. To add another baseline for comparison, professional sports gamblers are considered very successful if they can pick winners at a rate above 54 percent or so.

I didn’t perform that exercise or chose to write this column simply to tell my readers about my fantasy performance or to try to establish my credentials. I did it to see if I would learn anything worthwhile about money and fantasy sports, or about how we construct perceptions of our success at this hobby we share. I’d like to share three thoughts resulting from this exercise.

The first thing that I found unsurprising, but worthy of mentioning, is that when you play multiple leagues for stakes, your successes, just as the performances of your players, are prone to random variation as well. I assume that many of my readers are like me in the sense that they play multiple leagues for various stakes. Personally, I have leagues that I play every season with relatively fixed stakes and then ad hoc leagues that I participate in for whatever reason as opportunities are presented to me. Among friends, the stakes may or may not be commensurate with the level of competition. In football leagues, for example, I’ve had the unfortunate luck of having more of my better seasons in leagues that happened to have been for lower stakes. These circumstances can work for or against you, and may not be particularly telling about your fantasy sports skill, but still extremely influential on your bottom line.

My second thought was brought when I tried to look at my performance to see if there were any patterns about my behavior that I wasn’t particularly aware of as well. I’m a self-professed conservative player. My highest stakes league mates will tell you that I’m the owner you have to worry about running down the title in the last weeks of the season every year, and not the owner who is prone to having explosive, break away from the pack, teams some years and cellar-dwelling gaggles of busts in others. I was curious as to whether I may have approached different stakes league with different appetites for risk. It was relieving to see that it didn’t appear that I did.

Giving this issue a bit more thought, I confirmed my gut feeling that there’s not a viable justification for approaching different stakes leagues with different risk tolerances. The value propositions of each league remain largely similar on a proportionate basis, so I think that adjusting your strategy based on the absolute dollar amounts is logically flawed. Eight to one odds are the same as 80 to 10 odds. Adjusting your risk appetite based on payout structure, however, can certainly be justifiable. On a related note, whenever I’m given the opportunity to weigh in on payout structures I try to influence more balanced payouts; this is in line with both my beliefs and my self-interest. Don’t ask me which is the cart and which is horse though, for I can’t totally be sure.

My third observation became clear when looking across my three sport performance begged the question of why I thought I performed better than I actually did. I think there are two unique factors at play here. First, my conservative always-be-competitive style leads to feel more accomplished than economically compensated, given that payouts are often quite top heavy. For example, if my basketball leagues were to end today, I’d have finished second in four out of my last five leagues without winning once. Economically, I’d have done better to win twice and bottom out three times.

Perhaps, my style of play isn’t suited to maximum payout, but maximum enjoyment and stability. It’s important to note that fantasy sports is a hobby first, as opposed to actual investing, and so the opportunity cost of the low entertainment value that comes with those bad teams you get when you take too many risks that don’t pan out is a non-trivial part of one’s value proposition when playing fantasy sports. Even the seamheads among us are not actually machines.

The other factor in the perception versus reality dynamic relates to how money comes and goes in fantasy sports. In fantasy sports you make a single bet over a long period of time and when you win, you win several times your bet. The social properties relating to the economics of a fantasy sports win are great; they’re the opposite of the practical economic impotency of quitting smoking. Let me explain.

When somebody decides to quit smoking, it’s a given that somebody else will mention to that person how much money they are poised to save. Of course, realistically, that person is most likely not going to save any money at all. When you quit smoking the economic impact happens over many, small, short term gains. The quitter will most likely just find a different way to spend those five dollars every day, or 30 or so bucks a week. Practically speaking, that money gets redistributed, not saved. (Of course, if you live in New York and are just quitting now, we’re talking real money.)

In fantasy sports, you make a substantial but not overly burdensome bet at the beginning of a season. That bet is singular and it plays out over months. By the time the payout comes you are so far removed from that bet that if you lose you’re not affected. But, if you win, you win a huge ROI out of nowhere. You’re not collecting a theoretical windfall a couple of bucks per day; you get that “I won the lottery” feeling. In terms of the economic structure of fantasy sports, I think that dynamic can’t be overstated.

Economic advisors will tell you that you shouldn’t aim to get a tax refund because theoretically you could be investing that money and making a return on it as opposed to letting the government hold it while inflation creeps up. But, so may of us set ourselves up for a return anyway because we’d rather the lump sum than have to exercise the discipline of withholding from ourselves and doing the homework required to invest wisely. Playing fantasy sports over the long haul offers a similar dynamic. Even if you come a bit short of breaking even, a slightly negative ROI can actually feel like a win if it’s distributed in a certain manner that encourages you to handle it better. And, if you’re profiting modestly, it legitimately feels like you’re deriving significant economic benefit from the endeavor.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:48am (8) Comments

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Bold predictions

Pitchers and catchers have reported! For the next several weeks, we get to hear how every player in the league has reformed himself over the offseason. Some are reporting to camp after dropping 20 pounds and in the best shape of their lives. Others have given up their normal eating habits for more healthy choices. Some are fully recovered from injuries and itching to show that last year was a fluke, others had laser eye surgery to improve their vision.

So what does all of this really amount to? In my estimation, just a lot of random and senseless noise. While they may seem like bits of useful information, it’s the same stories that every team’s beat writers come out with every spring.

Of course every player is going to say he’s in the best shape of his life and ready and focused to have a monster year. Who’s really going to come into camp and say, “I was lazy, ate like garbage and didn’t work out the entire offseason?” Well, maybe Pedro Alvarez, but that’s another story altogether.

While these stories are nice and cute, you really shouldn’t let them play a major role in how you value players. Take last year, for example:

John Lannan reported to camp in the best shape of his life and primed for a tremendous year. What he actually did was make 25 starts with his highest career ERA and WHIP at 4.65/1.56, respectively.

Daisuke Matsuzaka reported to camp “in the best shape of his career,” and fans in Boston got to witness first-hand just how much of a train wreck he actually was.

Lance Berkman reported to Astros camp 20-25 pounds lighter in 2010. Maybe taking the “big” out of Big Puma was the reason for his abysmal .248/.368/.349 line.

Along with these examples, Oliver Perez, Aaron Harang and Russell Martin were looking fit and trim last spring, but didn’t seem to reap the rewards over the course of the season.

You can just as easily find players who reported the same things during spring last year then went on to have good years. Delmon Young, David Price, Corey Hart and many many others fit into this category.

That’s just it, there doesn’t seem to be any correlation to BSOML (best shape of my life) and on-field performance. If a player has been rehabbing and is attempting to come back from an injury, than good news about his health and what shape he’s in might be of some use. Take all of these stories—and trust me you’ll hear plenty of them in the coming weeks—with a huge grain of salt.

As far as things you should listen closely to and take seriously, here are some of my bold predictions for the 2011 season. Whether or not you agree with these or would fight them to the death is irrelevant. They are just a few things I anticipate happening this season that cause me to value certain players more than the general public.

Jose Bautista will hit 40 or more home runs again in 2011. I’ve heard numerous detractors calling his season a “fluke,” but after watching a good deal of Jays games last year, I’m a believer. His pull-happy ways play perfectly in the Rodgers Centre, he has job security for the first time in his career, and we all know that Toronto loves the long ball. The average could be a concern, hovering around .250, but I’ll more than gladly take a 40-HR third basemen in the third round.

Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer will combine for at least 35 wins and 400 strikeouts. These two provide Detroit with the best 1-2 duo of any team in the league, and the scary part for opposing teams is that they’re still getting better. They’re both workhorse power arms you should target to build your staff this season.

Carlos Santana will be the best catcher in fantasy baseball at the end of the year. It looks like he’s fully recovered from his injury, and will be hitting in a premium spot in the Indians order. The sky is the limit for this kid, and I think he’ll put up a ridiculous .280 ave./80 runs/25 HR/100 RBI/10 SB. You will regret it if you pass on him.

Erik Bedard will remain healthy and toss 150-plus innings. I know that he has battled numerous injuries during his tenure in Seattle, but I think this is the year he finally avoids the DL and returns to his dominating ways.

Joel Peralta will rack up the most saves in the Tampa bullpen. Kyle Farnsworth has shown no ability to perform well when handed the ball in the ninth inning. JP Howell still isn’t completely healthy, and the organization would be better off keeping Jake McGee as a starter. This will open the door for Peralta to close games early in the season, and should he prove up to the task, he will be a nice sleeper play late in drafts.

Over the next couple of weeks I’ll focus more on draft strategy and preparation. As always, your comments and questions are more than appreciated!

Posted by Dave Shovein at 5:11am (13) Comments

Ranking baseball’s farm systems

1. Kansas City Royals. Kansas City has a plethora of top-end impact talent and loads of depth throughout. The best system in baseball and a reason to follow America's pastime for long-suffering Royal fans.
1. Mike Moustakas / 3B
2. Eric Hosmer / 1B/OF
3. Mike Montgomery / SP
4. Wil Myers / C/OF/1B
5. Daniel Duffy / SP
6. John Lamb / SP
7. Jake Odorizzi / SP
8. Christian Colon / SS
9. Chris Dwyer / SP
10. Johnny Giavotella / 2B

2. Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa has the best one-two prospect punch around, high upside pitching, and stellar depth up and down the minor leagues. Alex Torres, Alex Cobb, and Enny Romero are the some of the pitching highlights beyond the top 10.
1. Desmond Jennings / OF
2. Jeremy Hellickson / SP
3. Jake McGee / SP/RP
4. Matthew Moore / SP/RP
5. Nick Barnese / SP
6. Chris Archer / SP
7. Justin O'Connor / C/3B/SS/2B
8. Alex Colome / SP/RP
9. Josh Sale / OF
10. Hak-Ju Lee / SS

3. Atlanta Braves. Atlanta has potential impact players lined up in their top six and oodles of supplemental low-level talent. Their development reputation has the baseball world wondering who their next set of hot shot prospects will be.
1. Julio Teheran / SP
2. Mike Minor / SP
3. Freddie Freeman / 1B
4. Randall Delgado / SP
5. Arodys Vizcaino / SP/RP
6. Craig Kimbrel / RP
7. J.J. Hoover / SP
8. Matt Lipka / SS
9. Christian Bethancourt / C
10. Andrelton Simmons / SS

4. Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto got good in a hurry. There isn't a can't-miss prospect in the bunch, but it's a strong top 10, with the top five likely to appear in my top 100 prospects, and there is plenty of talent throughout the system that is waiting for recognition.
1. Brett Lawrie / 3B/2B/OF
2. Kyle Drabek / SP
3. Deck McGuire / SP
4. J.P. Arencibia / C
5. Chad Jenkins / SP
6. Travis D'Arnaud / C
7. Carlos Perez / C
8. Adieny Hechavarria / SS
9. Zach Stewart / RP/SP
10. David Cooper / 1B

5. San Diego Padres. The Adrian Gonzalez trade gave San Diego a lift, but they had an underrated farm system to begin with. They have a legitimately good top 20 with James Darnell, Adys Portillo, Matt Lollis, and Keyvius Sampson headlining the back end.
1. Casey Kelly / SP
2. Simon Castro / SP
3. Donavan Tate / OF
4. Jaff Decker / OF
5. Reymond Fuentes / OF
6. Anthony Rizzo / 1B
7. Edinson Rincon / 3B/OF
8. Drew Cumberland / SS/2B
9. Cory Luebke / SP
10. John Barbato / SP/RP

6. Minnesota Twins. Minnesota has a well-balanced system with some high upsiders comprising the top three and plenty of future big leaguers up and down their top 30. Minnesota always seems to have bottomless depth.
1. Kyle Gibson / SP
2. Miguel Sano / 3B/SS
3. Aaron Hicks / OF
4. Alex Wimmers / SP
5. Ben Revere / OF
6. Liam Hendriks / SP
7. Adrian Salcedo / SP
8. Max Kepler-Rozycki / OF
9. Oswaldo Arcia / OF
10. David Bromberg / SP

7. Seattle Mariners. Seattle has a severely underrated system. They have five guys who will fit in my top 100, even though I am in the minority when it comes to Triunfel and Chavez, and it wouldn't be difficult to put together a respectable top 20 list, either.
1. Michael Pineda / SP
2. Nick Franklin / SS
3. Dustin Ackley / 2B
4. Carlos Triunfel / 3B/2B/SS
5. Johermyn Chavez / OF
6. Mauricio Robles / SP
7. Rich Poythress / 1B
8. James Jones / OF
9. Blake Beavan / SP
10. Alex Liddi / 3B/OF/1B

8. Los Angeles Angels. The Angels have a lot of high-upside arms to keep things interesting, and having Trout at the top of the list is a great asset. But the No. 1 reason they rank No. 8 is because of their overall depth, which is among Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota as the top four deepest systems in baseball.
1. Mike Trout / OF
2. Hank Conger / C
3. Garrett Richards / SP
4. Jean Segura / 2B/SS
5. Kaleb Cowart / 3B
6. Fabio Martinez / SP
7. Tyler Chatwood / SP/RP
8. Alexi Amarista / 2B
9. Mark Trumbo / 1B/OF
10. Cam Bedrosian / SP

9. Cleveland Indians. Cleveland lacks a superstar-level talent, but the team does have four guys who will slot into my top 100 and a good amount of depth, even though they aren't as deep as some are making them out to be.
1. Alex White / SP
2. Lonnie Chisenhall / 3B
3. Jason Knapp / SP/RP
4. Drew Pomeranz / SP
5. Jason Kipnis / 2B/OF
6. Nick Weglarz / OF
7. Chun-Hsiu Chen / C
8. LeVon Washington / OF
9. T.J. House / SP
10. Hector Rondon / SP/RP

10. Colorado Rockies. Colorado has a great one-two pitching punch and brought together an underrated 2010 draft. They have solid depth throughout and a number of guys poised for breakout seasons.
1. Christian Friedrich / SP
2. Tyler Matzek / SP
3. Wilin Rosario / C
4. Nolan Arenado / 3B
5. Chad Bettis / SP/RP
6. Peter Tago / SP
7. Juan Nicasio / SP
8. Kyle Parker / OF
9. Rex Brothers / RP
10. Albert Campos / SP

11. Cincinnati Reds. Cincinnati has a potential superstar at the top, but appear to have only six guys who will fit in my top 200, and the depth really seems to run out after the top 15.
1. Aroldis Chapman / SP/RP
2. Devin Mesoraco / C
3. Yasmani Grandal / C
4. Yonder Alonso / 1B/OF
5. Yorman Rodriguez / OF
6. Billy Hamilton / 2B/SS
7. Kyle Lotzkar / SP/RP
8. Cody Puckett / 2B
9. Todd Frazier / OF/3B/1B
10. Juan Francisco / 3B

12. Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia's system looks light years better than it did last year thanks to the emergence of Singleton and their top three pitchers. But the talent falls off a bit after the top five and really tails off after the top 15.
1. Domonic Brown / OF
2. Jonathan Singleton / OF/1B
3. Jarred Cosart / SP
4. Trevor May / SP
5. Brody Colvin / SP
6. Vance Worley / SP
7. Sebastian Valle / C
8. J.C. Ramirez / SP
9. Jesse Biddle / SP
10. Domingo Santana / OF

13. Texas Rangers. The Texas prospect trough has dried up considerably since last year, yet there is talent enough for a solid top 20 list and plenty of time for their young arms and Profar to shine.
1. Martin Perez / SP
2. Tanner Scheppers / RP/SP
3. Jurickson Profar / SS
4. Robert Erlin / SP
5. Robbie Ross / SP
6. Neil Ramirez / SP
7. Kellin Deglan / C
8. Jake Skole / OF
9. Michael Olt / 3B
10. Luis Sardinas / SS

14. New York Yankees. I'm not as high on Betances and Brackman as others are, but Montero is the top prospect in baseball and capable of lifting any farm system. They had a weak 2010 draft, meaning the talent really drops off after the top 15.
1. Jesus Montero / C/OF/1B
2. Manuel Banuelos / SP
3. Dellin Betances / SP/RP
4. Gary Sanchez / C
5. Andrew Brackman / SP/RP
6. Austin Romine / C
7. Cito Culver / SS
8. Brandon Laird / OF/3B
9. Adam Warren / SP
10. Slade Heathcott / OF

15. Washington Nationals. Washington's system goes downhill quickly after the top 10, and the pitching is thin and unproven, but Espinosa, Norris, and the crown jewel, Harper, make this system shine.
1. Bryce Harper / OF
2. Danny Espinosa / 2B/SS
3. Derek Norris / C
4. A.J. Cole / SP
5. Wilson Ramos / C
6. J.P. Ramirez / OF
7. Corey Brown / OF
8. Eury Perez / OF
9. Sammy Solis / SP
10. Chris Marrero / 1B

16. Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh's best asset is the amount of high-upside pitching they possess. They have a strong top eight and then drop off, and it would be difficult finding guys to slot into the final few slots of a top-20 list. They seemed to have had more overall depth last year.
1. Jameson Taillon / SP
2. Tony Sanchez / C
3. Stetson Allie / SP
4. Rudy Owens / SP
5. Luis Heredia / SP
6. Jeff Locke / SP
7. Andrew Lambo / OF
8. Robbie Grossman / OF
9. Justin Wilson / SP/RP
10. Chase D'Arnaud / SS

17. St. Louis Cardinals. Miller is a great young man to have at the top, but the talent dips after the top five and takes a bigger dip after the top 15 or so. It's a decent system, but there is a lot of work to be done.
1. Shelby Miller / SP
2. Zack Cox / 3B/2B
3. Carlos Matias / SP
4. Oscar Taveras / OF
5. Tyrell Jenkins / SP
6. Eduardo Sanchez / RP
7. Lance Lynn / SP
8. Matt Carpenter / 3B
9. Deryk Hooker / SP/RP
10. Seth Blair / SP/RP

18. Boston Red Sox. The Adrian Gonzalez trade hurts the top of Boston's system, but they have good depth. A top-20 list would be an easy task. The lack of a standout prospect hurts their ranking.
1. Kolbrin Vitek / 3B/2B/OF
2. Lars Anderson / 1B
3. Jose Iglesias / SS
4. Bryce Brentz / OF
5. Anthony Ranaudo / SP/RP
6. Oscar Tejeda / 2B
7. Stolmy Pimentel / SP
8. Chris Balcom-Miller / SP
9. Drake Britton / SP
10. Josh Reddick / OF

19. Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are more talented than this ranking suggests, but they had a disappointing 2010 from a numbers standpoint. Like Boston, they have good depth but lack a standout prospect.
1. Dee Gordon / SS
2. Rubby De La Rosa/ SP/RP
3. Zach Lee / SP
4. Aaron Miller / SP/RP
5. Chris Withrow / SP
6. Kenley Jansen / RP
7. Allen Webster / SP
8. Jerry Sands / 1B/OF
9. Scott Elbert / RP/SP
10. Garrett Gould / SP

20. Arizona Diamondbacks. If Parker picks up where he left off, this system will get a considerable boost. It looks like they will have nine guys in my top 200 list, and I could comfortably put together a respectable top 20 for this system. It's the lack of top-100 talent that hinders this group.
1. Jarrod Parker / SP
2. Tyler Skaggs / SP
3. Wade Miley / SP
4. Bobby Borchering / 3B/1B
5. Pat Corbin / SP
6. Matt Davidson / 3B/OF/1B
7. Charles Brewer / SP
8. Chris Owings / SS/2B
9. Marc Krauss / OF
10. A.J. Pollock / OF

21. Oakland Athletics. Helping Oakland's case is their top four, all top 100 prospects. Just about everything beyond that is hurting this team. They may have the weakest pitching in all of minor league baseball.
1. Michael Choice / OF
2. Grant Green / SS
3. Chris Carter / 1B/OF
4. Jemile Weeks / 2B
5. Ian Krol / SP
6. Max Stassi / C
7. Josh Donaldson / C
8. Adrian Cardenas / 2B
9. Michael Taylor / OF
10. Eric Sogard / 2B

22. Detroit Tigers. Turner is a great talent to have at the top, and their top five rounds out nicely, but the rest of this system leaves a lot to be desired.
1. Jacob Turner / SP
2. Andrew Oliver / SP
3. Nick Castellanos / 3B
4. Charles Furbush / SP
5. Casey Crosby / SP/RP
6. Daniel Schlereth / RP
7. Brayan Villarreal / SP/RP
8. Daniel Fields / OF
9. Adam Wilk / SP/RP
10. Francisco Martinez / 3B

23. Houston Astros. Lyles is a respectable No. 1 who heads up a respectable top nine. After the first nine, this system falls off a cliff. I find it hard to justify a top-15 list for this group.
1. Jordan Lyles / SP
2. Jiovanni Mier / SS
3. Delino DeShields / 2B/OF
4. Mike Foltynewicz / SP
5. Tanner Bushue / SP
6. Jonathan Villar / SS/3B/2B
7. Jimmy Paredes / 2B
8. Austin Wates / OF
9. J.D. Martinez / OF
10. Jay Austin / OF

24. New York Mets. The Mets have a good amount of high-upside talent on their side and a strong No. 1 to lean on, but I was disappointed with their 2010 draft, and they only have one player in my top 100.
1. Wilmer Flores / 3B/SS
2. Reese Havens / 2B/3B/SS
3. Aderlin Rodriguez / 3B
4. Matt Harvey / RP/SP
5. Brad Emaus / 2B/3B/OF
6. Cesar Puello / OF
7. Cory Vaughn / OF
8. Jeurys Familia / SP/RP
9. Dillon Gee / SP
10. Kirk Nieuwenhuis / OF

25. Chicago Cubs. I'm not as high on Brett Jackson and McNutt as most are. The Cubs' system is built on the reputation of those two right now. This system sees a talent dip after the top seven, but a decent top 15 could be pieced together thanks to some high-upside arms in the lower levels.
1. Brett Jackson / OF
2. Trey McNutt / SP
3. Jay Jackson / SP/RP
4. Hayden Simpson / SP
5. Josh Vitters / 3B
6. Michael Burgess / OF
7. Chris Carpenter / RP/SP
8. DJ LeMahieu / 2B
9. Reggie Golden / OF
10. Austin Reed / SP/RP

26. San Francisco Giants. It appears that only Wheeler will fit in my top 100, and, yes, that does account for Belt, who I am far from sold on. It also appears that San Francisco only has three players who will appear in my top 200, despite having some low-level depth to work with.
1. Zack Wheeler / SP
2. Brandon Belt / 1B
3. Gary Brown / OF
4. Eric Surkamp / SP
5. Jorge Bucardo / RP/SP
6. Thomas Joseph / C/1B
7. Ehire Adrianza / SS
8. Rafael Rodriguez / OF
9. Thomas Neal / OF
10. Francisco Peguero / OF

27. Baltimore Orioles. With Baltimore you have Machado, Britton, and everyone else. I could scrape together a top 15, but this team doesn't deserve much more than that at this point.
1. Manny Machado / 3B/SS
2. Zach Britton / SP
3. Matt Hobgood / SP
4. Xavier Avery / OF
5. Ryan Adams / 2B
6. Joe Mahoney / 1B
7. Mychal Givens / SS/3B/2B
8. Ryan Berry / SP/RP
9. Brandon Erbe / RP/SP
10. LJ Hoes / 2B

28. Chicago White Sox. Sale is the only player keeping this system afloat. Escobar should fit into my top 200. Flowers might. You could make a case that this is the thinnest system in baseball.
1. Chris Sale / SP/RP
2. Eduardo Escobar / SS
3. Tyler Flowers / C/1B/OF
4. Brent Morel / 3B
5. Jared Mitchell / OF
6. Andre Rienzo / SP/RP
7. Addison Reed / SP/RP
8. Josh Phegley / C
9. Brandon Short / OF
10. Jacob Petricka / RP/SP

29. Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee will have no one in my top 100 after off-season trades pillaged their finer pieces, but they still have some depth that could surprise. I could piece together a top 20 thanks to some mildly intriguing low-level talent.
1. Mark Rogers / SP/RP
2. Caleb Gindl / OF
3. Kyle Heckathorn / SP
4. Wily Peralta / SP
5. Cody Scarpetta / SP/RP
6. Kentrail Davis / OF
7. Amaury Rivas / SP
8. Cutter Dykstra / 3B/2B/OF
9. Scooter Gennett / 2B
10. Logan Schafer / OF

30. Florida Marlins. James is the only one who has a shot at my top 100 list, and there is little left beyond their top 10. Milwaukee's superior low-end talent solidifies Florida's spot as the worst system in baseball.
1. Chad James / SP
2. Brad Hand / SP
3. Matt Dominguez / 3B
4. Kyle Skipworth / C
5. Osvaldo Martinez / 2B/SS
6. Marcell Ozuna / OF
7. Rob Rasmussen / SP/RP
8. Christian Yelich / OF/1B
9. Jhan Marinez / RP
10. Tom Koehler / SP

Posted by Matt Hagen at 5:13am (10) Comments

Friday, February 18, 2011

Is CarGo really that good?

Posted by Kyle Bishop at 4:30am (6) Comments

Positional rankings redux

About three months ago, I undertook the task of ranking players by position for the 2011 season. Now that many moves have been made by many teams in the offseason since I began ranking the players, I'll update the lists and give some additional insight.

Remember, rankings are about argument, logic and belief. Projections are volatile and perceived value is subjective. Do not be a rankings slave. Rankings are less valuable for the index than they are for the reasons behind the index. As I always try to point out, if you disagree and have a good reason, then you should adjust your own rankings accordingly. My word is not gospel and I do not claim it to be. .

Here's my methodology behind the rankings:

Players are ranked based on their beginning of season player eligibility and other eligibility a player is expected to gain at the beginning of the season'; e.g., Gordon Beckham's second base eligibility last season. Eligibility is determined under Yahoo's default standards. The rules of eligibility for Yahoo fantasy leagues are as follows:

The following conditions apply to a player's position eligibility:
1. A player's position eligibility will not be adjusted prior to the beginning of the season. (If a player in spring training is playing a "new" position, that position will not appear until a player has met the criteria for a change.)
2. Players will not lose eligibility at a previously established position at any time. (For example, if a catcher-eligible player begins to play first base exclusively, he will remain eligible at catcher for the entire season.)
3. It is not possible to customize this setting within Custom Leagues. All leagues are subject to the same constraints.

Gaining eligibility at a new position:
If a position player makes five (5) starts or 10 total appearances at a new position during this season, he will become eligible to play that position in Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball. Pitchers need to make three starts to become eligible as a starter and five relief appearances to qualify as a reliever.

ESPN imposes a more rigorous default position eligibility standard; e.g., 20 games played at the position last season, 10 games played in the present season), so you may have to do additional research if you play ESPN fantasy to verify that players listed in these articles are in fact "position eligible" in your league.

The rankings below are based on 5x5 standard Roto leagues with one catcher, five outfielders, and one middle and corner infield position. These rankings are not based on real-life value, but fantasy value. Hence, guys like Juan Pierre will have value. The projections listed below are courtesy of Brian Cartwright's Oliver projection system. Brian updated the Oliver projection system, some significantly, after I had begun ranking players, but these are the original Oliver forecasts. For the most up-to-date Oliver projections, subscribe to THT Forecasts by clicking here

My rankings, however, are not exclusively based on Oliver's projections. I have also used other sources, such as my xBABIP-adjusted batting lines spreadsheet, Bill James and ZiPS projections (to the extent available), my own xWHIP and xERA calculations (sorry, xERA is not in calculator form, but you can learn the methodology by clicking here or here), to determine my own perception of a player's total expected production.

The rankings here are not exclusively based on total production by category, but determined in light of balance in production by category (the logic of which is explained in my outfielder rankings), a player's expected playing time and health (for example, I expect 100 or so IP from Jake Peavy, 220 innings from Zack Greinke, and considerably less from Rich Harden; perceived health risks have been starred), and the relative scarcity and volatility of production by category.

Top 20 fantasy catchers for 2011

Rank      Name              Team            Oliver Slash 2011
1         Joe Mauer*        Twins           .331/.411/.493
2         Brian McCann      Braves          .279/.364/.481
3         Carlos Santana*   Indians         .267/.378/.479
4         Victor Martinez   Tigers          .278/.342/.426
5         Buster Posey      Giants          .300/.376/.480
6         Geovany Soto*     Cubs            .249/.348/.443
7         Mike Napoli       Rangers         .257/.338/.507
8         Miguel Montero*   Diamondbacks    .265/.332/.431
9         Matt Wieters      Orioles         .272/.345/.419
10        Jorge Posada*     Yankees         .240/.324/.405
11        Russell Martin*   Yankees         .253/.353/.347
12        Kurt Suzuki*      Athletics       .261/.317/.392
13        J.P. Arencibia    Blue Jays       .221/.261/.407
14        Chris Iannetta    Rockies         .237/.346/.445
15        Jesus Montero     Yankees         .289/.341/.509
16        Yadier Molina     Cardinals       .270/.335/.351
17        John Jaso         Rays            .259/.351/.375
18        Ryan Doumit*      Pirates         .253/.314/.403
19        Rod Barajas       Dodgers         .246/.287/.412
20        Carlos Ruiz       Phillies        .264/.355/.390

Notes: Russell Martin's signing with the Yankees puts Jesus Montero's short-term role (and value) in question. Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira and Martin have the DH, first base and catcher spots locked up at the moment, so I have bumped Montero down from No. 11 to No. 15. Still, neither Posada or Martin is a model of health, so Montero might find himself in the Yankees lineup this year if and when either goes to the DL. Miguel Olivo, originally a deep draft power-source play, signed with the Mariners and has been bumped off this list. Long live Chooch, the new No. 20. I also moved Martin up a few spots and Kurt Suzuki has been bumped down from No. 7 to No. 12 in light of his underwhelming stolen base expectations by every projection system. The change in park for Mike Napoli to the Rogers Centre in Toronto would have been nice, but the subsequent change to the Rangers, even if it does not limit Napoli's playing time, does not do much for his fantasy value compared to Angels Stadium.

Top 20 fantasy first basemen For 2011

Rank      Name              Team         Oliver Slash (2011)
1         Albert Pujols     Cardinals    .319/.423/.616
2         Miguel Cabrera    Tigers       .311/.389/.579
3         Adrian Gonzalez   Padres       .290/.391/.536
4         Joey Votto        Reds         .301/.395/.535
5         Prince Fielder    Brewers      .278/.391/.524
6         Ryan Howard       Phillies     .263/.342/.516
7         Mark Teixeira     Yankees      .275/.370/.496
8         Kevin Youkilis    Red Sox      .289/.384/.513
9         Justin Morneau*   Twins        .293/.375/.523
10        Adam Dunn         White Sox    .251/.369/.508
11        Kendry Morales*   Angels       .289/.335/.510
12        Mark Reynolds     Orioles      .230/.328/.488
13        Carlos Pena       Cubs         .214/.336/.444
14        Billy Butler      Royals       .297/.365/.467
15        Paul Konerko      White Sox    .266/.345/.455
16        Buster Posey      Giants       .300/.376/.480
17        Freddie Freeman   Braves       .286/.345/.483
18        Luke Scott        Orioles      .252/.331/.454
19        Mike Napoli       Angels       .257/.338/.507
20        Ike Davis         Mets         .260/.335/.441

Notes: Adrian Gonzalez got a big bump, from No. 6 to No. 3 overall for the position. Gonzalez, now a Red Sox, is also a top 12 fantasy option in terms of total value for 2011. I still would not recommend drafting him, however, because first base remains the deepest position in baseball. I was able to get Carlos Pena, who moved up a spot or two on this list after signing with the Cubs, in Round 12 in a recent experts mock draft on Mock Draft Central. Derrek Lee has also been bumped for Ike Davis, who, with Freddie Freeman (new addition), moves Russell Branyan and Aubrey Huff off of the top 20 list.

I also added Mark Reynolds, who I originally forgot had first base eligibility this season. It took almost a year and a half, but enough people showing me enough stats have finally convinced me that Kendry Morales is, at the very least, a better version of Billy Butler. Accordingly, I have bumped him up a few slots. I also forgot about Luke Scott the first time around (19 games played at first) and he has been added to this list. Lance Berkman, now an outfielder, was bumped off the top 20 because I doubt his knees will hold up to warrant the rebound risk.

Top 20 fantasy second basemen for 2011

Rank      Name              Team          Oliver Slash (2011)
1         Chase Utley*      Phillies      .271/.369/.468
2         Ian Kinsler*      Rangers       .266/.343/.439
3         Robinson Cano     Yankees       .296/.340/.466
4         Dustin Pedroia*   Red Sox       .284/.355/.441
5         Brandon Phillips  Reds          .257/.311/.398
6         Dan Uggla         Braves        .261/.349/.483
7         Gordon Beckham    White Sox     .280/.351/.455
8         Rickie Weeks*     Brewers       .263/.353/.456
9         Martin Prado*     Braves        .290/.341/.437
10        Ben Zobrist       Rays          .256/.361/.418
11        Aaron Hill        Blue Jays     .241/.296/.409
12        Kelly Johnson     Diamondbacks  .257/.336/.430
13        Brian Roberts     Orioles       .274/.349/.408
14        Dustin Ackley     Mariners      .287/.378/.435
15        Neil Walker       Pirates       .251/.301/.422
16        Chone Figgins     Mariners      .263/.353/.320
17        Mike Aviles       Royals        .276/.307/.398
18        Ryan Raburn       Tigers        .270/.333/.465
19        Howie Kendrick    Angels        .280/.318/.414
20        Eric Young Jr.    Rockies       .238/.316/.313

Notes: Chase Utley remains my No. 1 second baseman and is going in the middle of the second round according to Mock Draft Central's ADP listing. If you have a late first round pick, he should be your target—even over Robinson Cano. Dustin Ackley's role at the open of the season remains unknown, but I want to remind everyone that once this kid is called up, he has top 5-10 potential for the position. I'm also falling more and more in love with Rickie Weeks. I've slotted him as No. 8 second baseman, ahead of Martin Prado, Aaron Hill, and Ben Zobrist. Even though he is now ranked a spot or two lower, I still like Aaron Hill as a sleeper for 2011. I also tinkered a bit with the bottom four.

Top 20 fantasy shortstops for 2011

Rank      Name              Team         Oliver Slash (2011)
1         Hanley Ramirez    Marlins      .307/.383/.518
2         Troy Tulowitzki   Rockies      .275/.354/.488
3         Jose Reyes*       Mets         .278/.330/.426
4         Derek Jeter       Yankees      .278/.344/.376
5         Alexei Ramirez    White Sox    .272/.311/.399
6         Jimmy Rollins*    Phillies     .239/.301/.377
7         Stephen Drew      Diamondbacks .261/.324/.427
8         Asdrubal Cabrera  Indians      .281/.339/.390
9         Starlin Castro    Cubs         .303/.342/.420
10        Rafael Furcal*    Dodgers      .275/.344/.399
11        Elvis Andrus      Rangers      .277/.344/.352
12        Mike Aviles*      Royals       .276/.307/.398
13        Danny Espinosa    Nationals    .241/.312/.403
14        Ian Desmond       Nationals    .261/.312/.399
15        Erick Aybar*      Angels       .267/.314/.358
16        Cliff Pennington  Athletics    .237/.322/.328
17        Miguel Tejada     Giants       .268/.302/.378
18        Alcides Escobar   Royals       .267/.310/.357
19        J.J. Hardy*       Orioles      .251/.313/.395
20        Jhonny Peralta    Tigers       .256/.315/.408

Notes: No change (or at least I don't think I made any changes...).

Top 20 fantasy third basemen for 2011

Rank      Name             Team          Oliver Slash (2011)
1         David Wright     Mets          .291/.371/.491
2         Evan Longoria    Rays          .286/.364/.532
3         Ryan Zimmerman   Nationals     .294/.366/.509
4         Alex Rodriguez*  Yankees       .267/.357/.479
5         Kevin Youkilis   Red Sox       .290/.383/.521
6         Adrian Beltre    Rangers       .276/.323/.449
7         Jose Bautista    Blue Jays     .239/.347/.478
8         Pablo Sandoval   Giants        .305/.357/.506
9         Aramis Ramirez*  Cubs          .259/.327/.446
10        Mark Reynolds    Orioles       .222/.323/.479
11        Martin Prado*    Braves        .290/.341/.437
12        Pedro Alvarez    Pirates       .245/.330/.460
13        Juan Francisco   Red           .273/.308/.513
14        Michael Young    Rangers       .277/.328/.419
15        Ian Stewart      Rockies       .234/.321/.441
16        Casey McGehee    Brewers       .273/.325/.426
17        David Freese     Cardinals     .262/.322/.413
18        Chase Headly     Padres        .264/.333/.403
19        Michael Cuddyer  Twins         .270/.340/.449
20        Chipper Jones*   Braves        .263/.373/.415

Notes: Because Adrian Beltre re-signed with the Rangers (+14 percent home run index for right-handed batters, +11 percent run index) after leaving the Red Sox (-7 percent home run index for right-handed batters, +8 percent run index), his index remains stable, though his value might slightly increase. Jose Bautista, an extreme right-handed pull hitter, is still slotted to bat out of the middle of the lineup for the Blue Jays, whose home park boasts a three year +16 percent home run index for right-handed hitters. Yeah, he's going to hit at least 30 this year. You might also make a good argument that Michael Young should be rated above Reynolds. Still, as I noted in my third base rankings, Reynolds is an underrated third base option. I also bumped Pablo Sandoval a up past Aramis Ramirez. Juan Francisco's ranking assumes 550+ PA. If he's not in the lineup regularly, he's not worth the pick. Also, you are going to want to avoid Francisco like the plague in OBP league -- he's essentially Mike Jacobs with third base eligibility. Mike Moustakas could get the June call up (yes, yes, I raved otherwise all offseason, but for some reason thought that Moustakas was 2 years younger than he actually is, though 23 could still be young enough for the Royals to delay his call up a full season to save service time...) and I have him paired with Chipper Jones, which may result in top 10 production combined (Chipper is so low on the list only because of health concerns, but he can stay healthy for two months...right?)

Top 20 fantasy middle infielders for 2011 (ignoring the top 12 second basemen and shortstops)

Rank      Name              Team          Oliver Slash (2011)
1         Brian Roberts*    Orioles       .274/.349/.408
2         Dustin Ackley     Mariners      .287/.378/.435
3         Neil Walker       Pirates       .251/.301/.422
4         Chone Figgins     Mariners      .263/.353/.320
5         Mike Aviles*      Royals        .276/.307/.398
6         Ryan Raburn       Tigers        .270/.333/.465
7         Danny Espinosa    Nationals     .241/.312/.403
8         Ian Desmond       Nationals     .261/.312/.399
9         Howie Kendrick    Angels        .280/.318/.414
10        Eric Young Jr.    Rockies       .238/.316/.313
11        Erick Aybar*      Angels        .267/.314/.358
12        Cliff Pennington  Athletics     .237/.322/.328
13        Miguel Tejada     Giants        .268/.302/.378
14        Alcides Escobar   Royals        .267/.310/.357
15        J.J. Hardy*       Orioles       .251/.313/.395
16        Jhonny Peralta    Tigers        .256/.315/.408
17        Yunel Escobar     Blue Jays     .273/.245/.374
18        Sean Rodriguez    Rays          .250/.324/.459
19        Juan Uribe        Dodgers       .258/.308/.432
20        Marco Scutaro     Red Sox       .256/.315/.408

Notes: Players No. 6-10 have changed order and Reid Brignac has been dropped for Sean Rodriguez.

Top 20 fantasy corner infielders for 2011 (ignoring the top 12 first and third basemen)

Rank      Name              Team         Oliver Slash (2011)
1         Billy Butler      Royals       .297/.365/.467
2         Pedro Alvarez     Pirates      .245/.330/.460
3         Paul Konerko      White Sox    .266/.345/.455
4         Michael Young     Rangers      .277/.328/.419
5         Ian Stewart       Rockies      .234/.321/.441
6         Buster Posey      Giants       .300/.376/.480
7         Freddie Freeman   Braves       .286/.345/.483
8         Luke Scott        Orioles      .252/.331/.454
9         Mike Napoli       Rangers      .257/.338/.507
10        Casey McGehee     Brewers      .273/.325/.426
11        Ike Davis         Mets         .260/.335/.441
12        Aubrey Huff       Giants       .265/.339/.448
13        Gaby Sanchez      Marlins      .271/.336/.437
14        Russell Branyan*  Diamondbacks .248/.330/.484
15        David Freese      Cardinals    .262/.322/.413
16        Derrek Lee        Cubs         .257/.339/.421
17        Lance Berkman*    Cardinals    .262/.374/.443
18        Chase Headly      Padres       .264/.333/.403
19        Michael Cuddyer   Twins        .270/.340/.449
20        Chipper Jones*    Braves       .263/.373/.415

Notes: I can't even begin to tell you how and why I shuffled this list around. Assuming he's not platooned into oblivion Russell Branyan should be a great source of cheap power. Just missing the cut here are Scott Rolen and Chris Carter.

Top 60 fantasy outfielders for 2011

Rank      Player              Team           Oliver Slash (2011)
1         Ryan Braun          Brewers        .307/.367/.533
2         Matt Holliday       Cardinals      .301/.380/.500
3         Josh Hamilton*      Rangers        .301/.360/.501
4         Carlos Gonzalez     Rockies        .288/.340/.508
5         Carl Crawford       Red Sox        .287/.341/.426
6         Matt Kemp           Dodgers        .270/.328/.454
7         Jason Heyward       Braves         .308/.393/.539
8         Justin Upton        Diamondbacks   .291/.372/.536
9         Nelson Cruz*        Rangers        .272/.341/.504
10        Shin-Soo Choo       Indians        .294/.387/.480
11        Andrew McCutchen    Pirates        .277/.357/.448
12        Alex Rios           White Sox      .265/.313/.408
13        Jayson Werth*       Nationals      .261/.361/.460
14        Ichiro Suzuki       Mariners       .309/.351/.392
15        Jay Bruce           Reds           .265/.336/.486
16        Mike Stanton        Marlins        .283/.359/.623
17        Jacoby Ellsbury*    Red Sox        .266/.324/.359
18        Hunter Pence        Astros         .270/.324/.445
19        Drew Stubbs         Reds           .232/.306/.354
20        Andre Ethier        Dodgers        .278/.356/.485
21        Torii Hunter        Angels         .273/.346/.441
22        Domonic Brown       Phillies       .271/.336/.449
23        B.J. Upton          Rays           .244/.338/.394
24        Chris Young         Diamondbacks   .238/.320/.420
25        Colby Rasmus        Cardinals      .259/.338/.467
26        Curtis Granderson*  Yankees        .246/.324/.433
27        Jose Bautista       Blue Jays      .239/.347/.478
28        Grady Sizemore*     Indians        .250/.342/.453
29        Manny Ramirez*      Rays           .272/.371/.463
30        Nick Markakis       Orioles        .280/.358/.424
31        Brett Gardner       Yankees        .256/.353/.345
32        Carlos Beltran*     Mets           .278/.362/.447
33        Shane Victorino     Phillies       .267/.332/.413
34        Vladimir Guerrero   Rangers        .284/.332/.449
35        Desmond Jennings    Rays           .261/.335/.382
36        Jason Bay           Mets           .254/.352/.457
37        Adam Jones          Orioles        .271/.318/.429
38        Bobby Abreu         Angels         .257/.348/.404
39        Vernon Wells        Angels         .272/.324/.446
40        Jose Tabata         Pirates        .298/.351/.422
41        Corey Hart          Brewers        .271/.327/.463
42        Ben Zobrist         Rays           .256/.361/.418
43        Juan Pierre         White Sox      .273/.329/.323
44        Carlos Quentin*     White Sox      .252/.339/.480
45        Angel Pagan         Mets           .278/.331/.417
46        Delmon Young        Twins          .292/.330/.464
47        Michael Bourn       Astros         .254/.325/.331
48        Travis Snider       Blue Jays      .263/.329/.470
49        Lance Berkman*      Cardinals      .262/.374/.443
50        Luke Scott          Orioles        .252/.331/.454
51        Nick Swisher        Yankees        .249/.346/.443
52        Coco Crisp          Athletics      .268/.338/.401
53        Logan Morrison      Marlins        .286/.376/.452
54        Hideki Matsui       Athletics      .253/.339/.412
55        J.D. Drew           Red Sox        .243/.350/.423
56        Aubrey Huff         Giants         .265/.339/.448
57        Michael Cuddyer     Twins          .270/.340/.449
58        Matt Joyce          Rays           .240/.340/.445
59        Rajai Davis         Blue Jays      .275/.316/.374
60        Carlos Lee          Astros         .259/.305/.412

Notes: A few changes in the upper tier: Jason Heyward has jumped from No. 12 to No. 7 on my list, leapfrogging Justin Upton. While it was hard to rank Heyward (.300/25/15/100+/100+ is my expected line) ahead of Upton (expecting .290/25-30/15-20/100+/100+ production, plus he calls Chase Field his home), Heyward's ceiling is arguably better and he's just still just 21. Did you know Heyward walked more than 90 times in his rookie season?

I also flip-flopped Andrew McCutchen and Alex Rios on this list. Their values are very close, though Rios arguably has better power upside; again, tie goes to the younger player. The most notable change to this list, as evidenced by the volume of comments on the original outfielder rankings, might be moving up Delmon Young from No. 53 to No. 46, one spot behind Angel Pagan. I still do not think that Young hits even 25 home runs this year, but if he comes close and hits .280 or higher, he will be more valuable than I initially credited him.

Oh, and I bumped both Jacoby Ellsbury and Hunter Pence up a few slots. I also had to bump Desmond Jennings' ranking down with the Rays' recent signing of Johnny Damon. (Reports indicate that Jennings will start the season at Triple-A, but I expect him to get a May call-up). Jennings should remain a prime target for keeper leagues. Vernon Wells was also bumped down several slots due to a change in park.

Top 100 fantasy starting pitchers for 2011

Rank   Name                 Team             oERA   oWHIP   oK/9 
1      Tim Lincecum         Giants           3.27   1.21    10.0
2      Roy Halladay         Phillies         3.32   1.13    7.2
3      Felix Hernandez      Mariners         3.35   1.23    7.7
4      Josh Johnson         Marlins          3.40   1.22    7.9
5      Cliff Lee            Phillies         3.34   1.15    6.9
6      C.C. Sabathia        Yankees          3.59   1.24    7.4
7      Jon Lester           Red Sox          3.74   1.25    8.6
8      Dan Haren            Angels           3.68   1.19    8.3
9      Zack Greinke         Brewers          3.49   1.21    8.3
10     Justin Verlander     Tigers           3.67   1.28    8.8
11     Chris Carpenter      Cardinals        3.49   1.20    6.5
12     Francisco Liriano    Twins            4.18   1.37    8.4
13     Cole Hamels          Phillies         3.78   1.23    8.1
14     Max Scherzer         Tigers           3.77   1.27    9.0
15     Clayton Kershaw      Dodgers          3.33   1.26    9.2
16     Mat Latos            Padres           3.37   1.18    8.4
17     Jered Weaver         Angels           3.77   1.25    8.3
18     Tommy Hanson         Braves           3.41   1.19    8.3
19     Ubaldo Jimenez       Rockies          3.35   1.25    8.5
20     Yovani Gallardo      Brewers          3.93   1.36    9.1
21     Roy Oswalt           Phillies         3.56   1.20    7.2
22     Ricky Nolasco        Marlins          4.09   1.26    7.9
23     Jeremy Hellickson    Rays             3.72   1.22    8.5
24     Shaun Marcum         Brewers          3.82   1.24    7.0
25     Chad Billingsley     Dodgers          3.94   1.35    7.9
26     David Price          Rays             3.86   1.32    7.6
27     Hiroki Kuroda        Dodgers          3.64   1.24    6.2
28     Colby Lewis          Rangers          3.33   1.16    8.4
29     Brett Anderson       Athletics        3.87   1.27    7.1
30     Madison Bumgarner    Giants           3.51   1.21    6.9          
31     Ted Lilly            Dodgers          3.67   1.18    7.4          
32     Jhoulys Chacin       Rockies          3.60   1.27    8.0          
33     Wandy Rodriguez      Astros           4.00   1.33    7.6          
34     Josh Beckett         Red Sox          4.26   1.31    7.9          
35     Phil Hughes          Yankees          3.87   1.29    7.7          
36     Daniel Hudson        Diamondbacks     3.94   1.26    8.4          
37     Matt Cain            Giants           3.78   1.27    7.4          
38     Ian Kennedy          Diamondbacks     3.92   1.29    7.7          
39     Ryan Dempster        Cubs             4.02   1.34    7.7          
40     Gavin Floyd          White Sox        4.07   1.33    6.8
41     Jaime Garcia         Cardinals        3.86   1.34    7.3
42     Michael Pineda       Mariners         3.81   1.23    7.4
43     Mike Minor           Braves           5.49   1.55    7.9
44     Brandon Webb*        Rangers          3.86   1.31    6.8
45     Ricky Romero         Blue Jays        4.59   1.49    6.7
46     Tim Hudson           Braves           3.92   1.32    5.4
47     Jordan Zimmerman     Nationals        4.20   1.32    7.7
48     Gio Gonzalez         Athletics        4.40   1.46    8.4
49     Travis Wood          Reds             3.69   1.27    7.3
50     John Danks           White Sox        3.79   1.29    6.8
51     Matt Garza           Cubs             4.15   1.33    6.9
52     Clay Buchholz        Red Sox          3.78   1.32    6.8
53     Scott Baker          Twins            4.37   1.32    7.2
54     Brian Matusz         Orioles          3.89   1.29    7.9
55     Marc Rzepczynski     Blue Jays        4.40   1.44    7.8
56     Trevor Cahill        Athletics        4.00   1.31    5.9
57     C.J. Wilson          Rangers          3.91   1.36    7.5
58     James Shields        Rays             4.62   1.37    7.1
59     Kyle Drabek          Blue Jays        4.10   1.37    6.8
60     Mike Leake           Reds             3.52   1.21    7.5
61     Jason Hammel         Rockies          4.21   1.34    6.8
62     Wade Davis           Rays             4.36   1.41    6.7
63     Dallas Braden        Athletics        4.18   1.34    5.7
64     Jonathan Sanchez     Giants           4.19   1.39    9.3
65     Jorge de la Rosa     Rockies          4.07   1.35    8.8
66     Brandon Morrow       Blue Jays        4.26   1.41    8.7
67     Javier Vazquez*      Marlins          4.16   1.31    7.7
68     Carlos Zambrano*     Cubs             4.06   1.41    7.2
69     Jake Peavy*          White Sox        3.86   1.29    8.0
70     Derek Holland        Rangers          4.12   1.33    7.3
71     Brett Myers*         Astros           4.24   1.35    7.0
72     Johan Santana*       Mets             3.82   1.27    7.0
73     Rich Harden*         Athletics        4.36   1.40    9.2
74     Kevin Slowey*        Twins            4.47   1.30    6.8
75     Johnny Cueto         Reds             4.33   1.35    6.9
76     Justin Masterson     Indians          4.43   1.44    7.0
77     Edinson Volquez      Reds             4.15   1.40    8.5
78     Ervin Santana        Angels           4.50   1.37    7.1
79     Bud Norris           Astros           4.57   1.47    8.3
80     Randy Wells          Cubs             4.12   1.36    6.2
81     Tom Gorzelanny       Nats             4.34   1.45    7.5
82     Jair Jurrjens        Braves           4.12   1.37    6.5
83     Aaron Harang         Padres           4.81   1.44    6.9
84     Bronson Arroyo       Reds             3.97   1.28    5.4
85     Edwin Jackson        White Sox        4.45   1.42    6.9
86     Chris Young*         FA               4.82   1.50    6.7
87     Homer Bailey         Reds             4.43   1.45    7.4
88     Joel Pineiro         Angels           4.10   1.29    4.9
89     Daisuke Matsuzaka    Red Sox          4.46   1.44    7.5
90     Rick Porcello        Tigers           4.19   1.34    5.1
91     Anibal Sanchez       Marlins          4.10   1.40    6.8
92     Derek Lowe           Braves           4.25   1.39    5.6
93     Carl Pavano          Twins            4.52   1.34    5.2
94     Chris Tillman        Orioles          4.28   1.39    7.1
95     Mike Pelfrey         Mets             4.62   1.46    5.1
96     R.A. Dickey          Mets             4.26   1.38    5.1
97     John Lackey          Red Sox          4.37   1.36    6.5
98     Hisanori Takahashi   Angels           4.12   1.34    7.3
99     Clayton Richard      Padres           4.37   1.43    6.3
100    Jeff Niemann         Rays             4.30   1.37    6.5

Notes: As previously noted, none of Kris Medlen, Stephen Strasburg, Justin Duchscherer, Erik Bedard, Chien-Ming Wang, Andrew Cashner, Sean Marshall, or Chris Sale are ranked on this list, due to health concerns, questionable or unclear roles with their teams, or the like. I also took an extended look at Matt Cain in light of the discussion in the comments. Using my xWHIP calculator to normalize Cain's batted ball distribution to reflect a 19 percent line drive rate for 2009-2010, I found that even assuming his true home run per outfield flyball talent was 7 percent (rather than the league average rate of 11.5 percent, his expected tERA is north of 4.2. Thus, still not a fan of Cain.

Kyle Drabek made a huge jump up the list. His velocity and hammer-curve are just to good to ignore, and his "wildness" may have just been the byproduct of missing low in a small sample rather than lack of control. I also got sold on a ticket for the Mike Leake train, choo choo! I also added two youngsters, Mike Minor and Michael Pineda, who, combined with a "fantasy league average" starting pitcher, should composite to Frankenstein into a top 50 pitcher. Wainwright's been 86'd because "I told you so" about his elbow.

Oh, and I flopped Lincecum and Halladay. The freak is just in a class of his own, according to my EYES rankings. Oliver's pricing guide seems to agree, though it also has my boy King Felix ahead of Halladay as well. I like Felix more as a pitcher, but, despite my critiques of the 2011 Phillies' offensive outlook, I still say Doc Halladay out "wins" King Felix and thus (barely) secures the No. 2 spot ahead of him. Honestly, you'll be happy getting any of these three pitchers.

Top 50 fantasy relief pitchers for 2011

Rank      Player                Team             oSV     oERA      oWHIP      oK/9   Opening Day Closer?
1         Joakim Soria          Royals           38      3.20      1.12       9.1       Y
2         Neftali Feliz         Rangers          36      3.36      1.18       8.6       Y
3         Mariano Rivera        Yankees          35      3.00      1.08       7.4       Y
4         Brian Wilson          Giants           38      3.41      1.23       9.4       Y
5         Heath Bell            Padres           36      3.48      1.24       8.5       Y
6         Carlos Marmol         Cubs             36      3.52      1.31       11.4      Y
7         Drew Storen           Nationals        32      3.47      1.20       8.9       Y
8         J.J. Putz             Diamondback      38      3.84      1.31       7.8       Y
9         Jose Valverde         Tigers           38      3.81      1.27       8.2       Y
10        Joe Nathan*           Twins            36      3.43      1.16       8.5       Y
11        Andrew Bailey*        Athletics        32      3.66      1.24       8.2       Y
12        Jonathan Papelbon     Red Sox          36      3.48      1.20       8.9       Y
13        Matt Thornton         White Sox        36      3.22      1.17       9.3       Y
14        Chris Perez           Indians          36      3.90      1.30       9.0       Y
15        Francisco Rodriguez   Mets             38      3.78      1.30       8.9       Y
16        Brad Lidge*           Phillies         32      4.21      1.38       8.5       Y
17        Huston Street*        Rockies          26      3.47      1.20       8.8       Y
18        Frank Francisco       Blue Jays        28      3.44      1.20       9.7       Y
19        Craig Kimbrel         Braves           36      3.98      1.44       11.1      Y
20        John Axford           Brewers          40      4.15      1.45       9.0       Y
21        Francisco Cordero     Reds             38      4.06      1.40       7.3       Y
22        Jonathan Broxton      Dodgers          30      3.40      1.22       10.1      Y
23        Joel Hanrahan         Pirates          30      3.70      1.27       9.8       Y
24        Leo Nunez             Marlins          36      4.04      1.29       7.3       Y
25        Koji Uehara*          Orioles           0      3.57      1.18       7.4       Y
26        Brandon League        Mariners          2      3.83      1.27       7.1       Y
27        Brandon Lyon          Astros           22      4.00      1.32       6.2       Y
28        Ryan Franklin         Cardinals        32      4.08      1.32       6.0       Y
29        Fernando Rodney*      Angels           18      4.55      1.50       6.9       Y (possible committee)
30        Jake McGee            Rays             16      4.01      1.39       8.7       (committee)
31        Takashi Saito         Brewers           0      3.65      1.25       8.1       N
32        J.P. Howell*          Rays              6      3.79      1.26       8.7       (committee; on DL)
33        Aroldis Chapman       Reds              0      3.89      1.34       10.4      N
34        Kevin Gregg           Orioles          34      4.14      1.39       7.6       N
35        Daniel Bard           Red Sox           4      3.51      1.23       9.2       N
36        Matt Capps            Twins             4      3.90      1.24       7.0       N
37        Mike Adams            Padres            2      3.33      1.19       8.6       N
38        Evan Meek             Pirates          10      3.84      1.33       7.7       N
39        Hong Chi Kuo          Dodgers           6      3.07      1.12       9.1       N
40        Ryan Madson           Phillies          6      3.63      1.21       8.2       N
41        Rafael Soriano        Yankees          36      3.37      1.20       8.5       N
42        Jason Motte           Cardinals         2      3.76      1.24       9.0       N
43        Jonny Venters         Braves            4      4.21      1.41       6.7       N
44        David Aardsma*        Mariners         38      4.09      1.38       8.2       N (starting on DL)
45        Kerry Wood*           Cubs              2      4.04      1.32       8.5       N
46        Luke Gregerson        Padres            2      3.43      1.20       8.9       N
47        Mike Gonzalez         Orioles          36      4.19      1.32       8.7       N
48        Sergio Romo           Giants            2      3.34      1.15       8.7       N
49        Sean Marshall         Cubs              2      3.54      1.23       8.3       N
50        Tyler Clippard        Nationals         4      3.87      1.31       9.0       N

Notes: A lot of names have been shuffled around. Though Rafael Soriano signed for money, not a closing gig, he should still be a very valuable reliever who can stabilize shaky ratios in 2011. I still believe Koji Uehara has the long-term edge on Kevin Gregg for the closing job in Baltimore. I think the Blue Jays' acquisition of Frank Francisco pushes Octavio Dotel out of a ninth-inning job, and Francisco should be a top 20 closer on talent alone (goodbye closer sleeper Jason Frasor). I bumped up Matt Capps (and bumped down Joe Nathan) because Nathan's velocity is three or so ticks down from pre-surgery levels. Monitor Nathan closely; Capps is the Twins' plan B.

With David Aardsma down and out for at least April, Brandon League gets a boost due to job security. Aardsma gets the corollary bump down. Finally, Jays manager Joe Maddon seems intent on opening the seasons with a closer by committee. The job will likely end up in either Jake McGee or J.P. Howell's hand long-term, but do not discount Kyle Farnsworth (managers like Maddon love "experience"). Remember, the majority of these rankings have to do with likelihood of accruing saves, not raw numbers alone (hence Soriano is ranked No. 41 behind Evan Meek and Gregg).

Now let's compare my batter rankings to Oliver's fantasy guide rankings, indexed. Positive differential values indicate that Oliver likes the player more and a negative value indicates that I liked a player more.

CATCHERS

Oliver Rank  My Rank     Difference    Player            Team
1            1           0             Joe Mauer         Twins
2            3           1             Carlos Santana    Indians
3            5           2             Buster Posey      Giants
4            4           0             Victor Martinez   Tigers
5            2           -3            Brian McCann      Braves
6            9           3             Matt Wieters      Orioles
7            6           -1            Geovany Soto      Cubs
8            N/R         N/R           A.J. Pierzynski   White Sox
9            14          5             Chris Ianetta     Rockies
10           8           -2            Miguel Montero    Diamondbacks
11           12          1             Kurt Suzuki       Athletics
12           N/R         N/R           Josh Thole        Mets
13           10          -3            Jorge Posada      Yankees
14           N/R         N/R           J. Saltalamacchia Red Sox
15           N/R         N/R           John Buck         Marlins
16           16          0             Yadier Molina     Cardinals
17           N/R         N/R           Chris Snyder      Pirates
18           20          2             Carlos Ruiz       Phillies
19           19          0             Rod Barajas       Dodgers
20           N/R         N/R           Miguel Olivo      Mariners

Missing from my list: Russell Martin (11), J.P. Arencibia (13), Jesus Montero (15), John Jaso (17)

FIRST BASE

Oliver Rank  My Rank     Difference    Player            Team
1            1           0             Albert Pujols     Cardinals
2            2           0             Miguel Cabrera    Tigers
3            11          8             Kendry Morales    Angels
4            4           0             Joey Votto        Reds
5            3           -2            Adrian Gonzalez   Padres
6            5           -1            Prince Fielder    Brewers
7            8           1             Kevin Youkilis    Red Sox
8            6           -2            Ryan Howard       Phillies
9            9           0             Justin Morneau    Twins
10           17          7             Mark Reynolds     Orioles
11           10          0             Adam Dunn         White Sox
12           7           -4            Mark Teixeira     Yankees
13           13          1             Billy Butler      Royals
14           N/R         N/R           Dan Johnson       Rays
15           N/R         N/R           Kila Ka'aihue     Royals
16           15          0             Paul Konerko      White Sox
17           20          4             Aubrey Huff       Giants
18           20          3             Ike Davis         Mets
19           22          4             Gaby Sanchez      Marlins
20           12          -7            Carlos Pena       Cubs

Missing from my list: Lance Berkman (14), Luke Scott (17)

SECOND BASE

Oliver Rank  My Rank     Difference    Player            Team
1            1           0             Chase Utley       Phillies
2            6           4             Dan Uggla         Braves
3            3           0             Robinson Cano     Yankees
4            8           4             Rickie Weeks      Brewers
5            4           -1            Dustin Pedroia    Red Sox
6            17          11            Mike Aviles       Royals
7            11          4             Aaron Hill        Blue Jays
8            2           -6            Ian Kinsler       Rangers
9            10          1             Ben Zobrist       Rays
10           13          3             Brian Roberts     Orioles
11           7           -4            Gordon Beckham    White Sox
12           12          0             Kelly Johnson     Diamondbacks        
13           15          2             Neil Walker       Pirates
14           19          5             Ryan Raburn       Tigers
15           5           -9            Brandon Phillips  Reds
16           9           -6            Martin Prado      Braves
17           22          6             Sean Rodriguez    Rays
18           23          6             Juan Uribe        Dodgers
19           19          1             Ian Desmond       Nationals
20           16          -3            Chone Figgins     Mariners

Missing from my list: Dustin Ackley (14) and Howie Kendrick (20)

SHORTSTOP

Oliver Rank  My Rank     Difference    Player            Team
1            1           0             Hanley Ramirez    Marlins
2            2           0             Troy Tulowitzki   Rockies
3            3           0             Jose Reyes        Mets
4            12          8             Mike Aviles       Royals
5            5           0             Alexei Ramirez    White Sox
6            9           3             Starlin Castro    Cubs
7            13          6             Danny Espinosa    Nationals
8            6           -2            Jimmy Rollins     Phillies
9            22          13            Juan Uribe        Dodgers
10           14          4             Ian Desmond       Nationals
11           7           -4            Stephen Drew      Diamondbacks
12           N/R         N/R           Jason Bartlett    Padres
13           4           -9            Derek Jeter       Yankees
14           11          -3            Elvis Andrus      Rangers
15           10          -5            Rafael Furcal     Dodgers
16           8           -8            Asdruba Cabrera   Indians
17           17          0             Miguel Tejada     Giants
18           21          3             Yunel Escobar     Blue Jays
19           18          -1            Alcides Escobar   Royals
20           19          -1            J.J. Hardy        Twins

Missing from my list: Erick Aybar (15), Cliff Pennington (15), Miguel Tejada (17), Jhonny Peralta (20)

THIRD BASE

Oliver Rank  My Rank     Difference    Player            Team
1            1           0             David Wright      Mets
2            3           1             Ryan Zimmerman    Nationals
3            2           -1            Evan Longoria     Rays
4            7           3             Jose Bautista     Blue Hays
5            8           3             Pablo Sandoval    Giants
6            5           -1            Kevin Youkilis    Red Sox
7            4           -3            Alex Rodriguez    Yankees
8            10          2             Mark Reynolds     Orioles
9            N/R         N/R           Dan Johnson       Rays
10           12          2             Pedro Alvarez     Pirates
11           16          5             Casey McGehee     Brewers
12           6           -6            Adrian Beltre     Rangers
13           N/R         N/R           Chris Johnson     Astros
14           11          -3            Martin Prado      Braves
15           9           -6            Aramis Ramirez    Cubs
16           20          4             Michael Cuddyer   Twins
17           19          3             Chase Headley     Padres
18           N/R         N/R           Scott Rolen       Reds
19           N/R         N/R           Casey Blake       Dodgers
20           N/R         N/R           Placido Polanco   Phillies

Missing from my list: Michael Young (13), Ian Stewart (14), David Freese (15), Chipper Jones (17)

OUTFIELDERS

Oliver Rank  My Rank     Difference    Player
1            1           0             Ryan Braun
2            4           2             Carlos Gonzalez
3            2           -1            Matt Holliday
4            10          6             Shin-Soo Choo
5            16          11            Mike Stanton
6            9           3             Nelson Cruz
7            3           -4            Josh Hamilton
8            27          19            Jose Bautista
9            13          4             Jayson Werth
10           6           -4            Matt Kemp
11           5           -6            Carl Crawford
12           7           -5            Jason Heyward
13           59          46            Rajai Davis
14           14          0             Ichiro Suzuki
15           8           -7            Justin Upton
16           45          29            Angel Pagan
17           48          31            Travis Snider
18           41          23            Corey Hart
19           N/R         N/R           Adam Lind
20           20          1             Andre Ethier
21           15          -6            Jay Bruce
22           11          -11           Andrew McCutchen
23           18          -5            Hunter Pence
24           36          12            Jason Bay
25           33          8             Shane Victorino
26           12          -14           Alex Rios
27           46          19            Delmon Young
28           21          -6            Torii Hunter
29           44          15            Carlos Quentin
30           58          28            Matt Joyce
31           30          -1            Nck Markakis
32           51          19            Nick Swisher
33           43          10            Juan Pierre
34           32          -2            Carlos Beltran
35           23          -11           B.J. Upton
36           40          4             Jose Tabata
37           47          10            Michael Bourn
38           N/R         N/R           Alex Gordon
39           42          3             Ben Zobrist
40           35          -5            Desmond Jennings
41           53          12            Logan Morrison
42           N/R         N/R           Magglio Orgonez
43           17          -26           Jacoby Ellsbury
44           N/R         N/R           Franklin Gutierrez
45           N/R         N/R           Ryan Raburn
46           26          -26           Curtis Granderson
47           N/R         N/R           Martin Prado
48           60          12            Carlos Lee
49           56          7             Aubrey Huff
50           N/R         N/R           Andres Torres
51           31          -20           Brett Gardner
52           37          -15           Adam Jones
53           24          -28           Chris Young
54           N/R         N/R           Austin Jackson
55           39          -16           Vernon Wells
56           55          -1            J.D. Drew
57           N/R         N/R           Denard Span
58           57          -1            Michael Cuddyer
59           N/R         N/R           Jason Kubel
60           N/R         N/R           Chris Coghlan

Missing from my list: Drew Stubbs (19), Domonic Brown (22), Colby Rasmus (25), Grady Sizemore (28), Manny Ramirez (29), Vladimir Guerrero (34), Bobby Abreu (38), Lance Berkman (49), Luke Scott (50), Coco Crisp (52), and Hideki Matsui (54).

And now, for something completely different: Fangraphs is hosting a new fantasy baseball service this year. The game is unique in many aspects, including the fact that it's essentially a year-round game. The service retails at $19.99, but if you sign up before March 1, 2011, it will cost only $9.99 to join or create a league.

To that end, Fangraphs was nice enough to set me up as one of the "guest commissioners" for Ottoneu (you may have noticed my league idly existing on the mainpage by now), and I am officially opening my league, on a first-come, first-served basis, to Hardball Times readers who want to participate in what I hope will be a very competitive league. Because I am a traditionalist, my league will be "Old School" format, meaning that it will use the standard 5x5 categories. The league, titled Jeffrey Gross—Hardball Times, will also include Hardball Times fantasy writer Brad Johnson. You can sign-up by clicking here, though you will need to register a login and username first. The password for my league is genius. Do not delay, as space is limited.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:21am (71) Comments

Monday, February 21, 2011

Preparation H2H: points-based

This article may turn into more like a personal aside. First of all, that is not my intention. Recently, a friend of mine approached me with a business opportunity of entering a high-stakes league as a team. Initially, my excitement was envisioning a boxer/promoter relationship. He would front the costs, I take care of the winning, and we would split the profit.

You’re thinking win-win situation, right? Well, I can’t really say that’s necessarily the case. I would have been stupid not to accept the invitation into a league where I make money without any risk of losing it.

After very little convincing, I signed on the dotted line. Then things got a little fuzzy. Now, I have competed in several leagues crossing all kinds of depth and competition levels. I consider myself an equal opportunity fantasy gamer. One of the most stringent restrictions I have placed upon myself is to compete in standard scoring leagues whether that be roto or head-to-head.

Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy categories like OBP and OPS. Bring on the doubles or quality starts. I even can enjoy a holds category every once in a while.

As you can probably gather, I opened the league’s browser this week, and my friend’s league follows a completely different set of rules than what I was accustomed to. In fact, it’s called a head-to-head, points-based system. I know some of you guys are far more familiar with this kind of format than I. Here is the scoring system those of you not as familiar.

Scoring System

Batting Categories	                  
1B – Singles                        1 point
2B – Doubles                       2 points
3B – Triples                       3 points
BB - Walks (Batters)             0.5 points
CS - Caught Stealing               -1 point
CYC – Hitting for the Cycle       20 points
HP - Hit by Pitch                0.5 points
HR - Home Runs                     4 points
KO - Strikeouts (Batter)           -1 point
R – Runs                            1 point
RBI - Runs Batted In                1 point
SB - Stolen Bases                1.5 points

Pitching Categories	                    
BBI - Walks Issued (Pitchers)    -0.5 points
BS - Blown Saves                  -3 points
CG - Complete Games                5 points
ER - Earned Runs                   -1 point
INN – Innings                    0.5 points
K - Strikeouts (Pitcher)            1 point
L – Losses                       -7.5 points
NH - No-Hitters                   20 points
PG - Perfect Games                30 points
QS - Quality Starts                3 points
RL - Relief Losses               3.75 points
RW - Relief Wins                  -5 points
S – Saves                          5 points
SO – Shutouts                     10 points
W – Wins                          10 points
WP - Wild Pitches                -0.5 points

Call me a purist, but the moment I saw wild pitches as a stat category, I threw up a little bit in my mouth. The addition of perfect games, no-hitters, and cycles only furthered that distaste.

Upon strategizing for the upcoming draft, I started to calculate by hand my own version of projections for a league of this kind. To my surprise, some names from 2010 that I liked more than ESPN’s player rater were ranked more accurately to their effect on the prior season.

Roy Halladay, for example, was the No. 1 player in this points-based league. ESPN has the ‘Doc’ ranked a disrespectful seventh as a thank you for his stellar 2010 campaign. Robinson Cano is seeded ahead of Carl Crawford, as he rightfully should have been. Guys like Ryan Braun and Matt Holliday get more love in the points-based league, and Carlos Gonzalez loses three spots from being tops in ESPN to fourth in this CBS league. On-base percentage and strikeouts caught up with him in this league, just like it will catch up with him in 2011.

My largest disagreement came in the form of the system’s Vernon Wells’ love as the 19th-best fantasy player for 2010. I don’t think anybody in their right mind would give Wells that distinction. He flourished in this points-based league due in large part to its non-inclusion of batting average, where Wells sported an unimpressive .273.

Earlier this year, I prospected on the possibility of future exploits from Vernon. His change of scenery may suit him well as an overall ballplayer, but I can’t allow myself to concede another 30+ home run season.

Here are some other interesting facets to this league that I found rather intriguing: ten dollar flat fee for trades, four dollar charge for most acquisitions, and two matchups in each period of one week. Pretty standard stuff for a high-stakes H2H league. The financial aspect just adds to my hesitation towards acceptance of the point-based way of gaming. There seems to be so many balls in the air at the same time, half the battle will be in finding a way to juggle them all.

I have decided to keep an open mind. For the past 13 years I have primarily only competed in the standard 5X5 format. Occasionally, I have ventured into other standard leagues with more numerous categories, but as a well-rounded fantasy player, it’s time for me to be more adventurous.

I say this until some guy throws a perfect game on me, and I lose the week. That week, I assuredly will curse the league and pray for my comfortable, macaroni ‘n’ cheese settings back in the 5X5.

As I put this rant to close, I want to say how encouraged I have been by the involvement of the readership at THT. When I signed up to start writing for The Hardball Times, I didn’t realize that there would be such a large number of positive but differing opinions.

I am going to go a little off the reservation here. This is my call to the readers. Teach me the ways of the point-based league. My knowledge of sabermetrics and linear weights can only go so far in this completely foreign realm of competition.

Someone once said, “The secret to teaching is to appear that you have known your whole life what you just learned this morning.” I am not going to be a fantasy writer that acts like I have all the answers to all the questions. Please pardon my unfamiliarity, and help to educate me this week.

Also, next week my piece in "The Preparation: H2H" series will be the 1-50 section of my top 300 rankings. So, if you are competing in a head-to-head format, this will be a "can’t miss" series of articles in March. Just hold on for four more days. Spring training games begin Friday. That means drafts are just around the corner.

Posted by Ben Pritchett at 5:10am (45) Comments

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Positioning statements

A good friend of mine took me to task last Saturday for not mentioning my bachelor party in last week’s column. Generally, I tend not to write about things that I don’t have clear recollections of, but I guess I’ll make an exception today. I’d like to especially thank the organizers and the Brooklyn Brewery, who have probably spent the last two weeks trying to figure out if it’s possible to write my party of ravenous beer mongers descending on their unsuspecting and cordial staff as a tax write off. Temperance has never been the strong suit of my crew, after all. By the way, let me take this opportunity to ask that same friend, who has been married for about nine years – if I come home later and drunker than my fiancé on the night of her bachelorette party, does that mean I’m not ready for marriage? Remember, you're complicit in this.

...As I prepare to make the jump and change positions from fiancé to husband, I want to take a few minutes to look at a some players who will gain positional eligibility this season that they don’t have at draft time. Roster versatility is an underrated strength in fantasy baseball, especially when you have to make deals. Additionally, players moving from more offensive-heavy positions to thinner and weaker positions always provide a bit extra value that most pre-ranks don’t consider.

Kevin Youkilis. In what is likely the biggest change in positional eligibility among bonafide stud players, the Greek God of Walks will return to the hot corner to make way for Adrian Gonzalez at first. Youkilis will gain 3B-eligibility imminently, as he projects as the full time 3B for the Sox. This move shoots Youk from the 8th highest pre-ranked 1B to the 5th highest 3B. Personally, I’m not as down on the 3B class as some, but it’s plainly obvious that 1B is much deeper, and therefore Youkilis’s projected numbers not only outshine more of the top options at 3B, but his value above replacement receives a nice bump as well.

Martin Prado. Prado is already eligible at 2B and 3B, and to make room for the arrival of Dan Uggla, this utility regular All Star is now moving to the outfield. Prado is probably still most valuable at 2B, but to be eligible as middle or corner infield and as an outfielder is quite rare and extremely valuable.

Lance Berkman. In one of the more bizarre off-season moves, the St. Louis Cardinals signed Lance Berkman with the intent of using him as a full time outfielder. Berkman’s production first tailed a bit in 2009 and then really took a dive last season. However, my biggest concern is whether Big Puma’s body will stand up to the challenge of being a full time outfielder. If Berkman is able to play 140 games, I think he can produce like a fairly good OF3. Projected to hit second in the order, Berkman should be able to take advantage of his stellar batting eye to post a good 90 runs. If he also gives you 18-22 homers and 70 RBI, along with a neutral .270-ish batting average, that’s not a bad package for somebody who doesn’t appear to be on anybody’s radar and would be borderline undraftable in a 12-team mixed league as a corner infielder.

Chone Figgins. The ping pong game knocking Figgins back and forth between 2B and 3B looks like it will continue this year. Figgins looks like he’ll be back at 3B this season. While he’s most valuable as a middle infielder, in addition to the value of versatility, this move opens up a serious speed option at a position that is traditionally lacking in SBs.

Adam Dunn. The Big Donkey loses his OF-eligibility this season, and he will be adopting what will primarily be a DH role. However, it’s possible that he does gain it back, at least in Yahoo leagues. I’d like to think that the White Sox would want to get his bat in their line-up in interleague games without relegating Paul Konerko to the bench. Therefore, it wouldn’t surprise me if he got a handful of starts at RF in interleague road games, enough to earn OF-eligibility midseason in Yahoo leagues. Looking toward next year, I’d also expect him to get enough starts at 1B to retain that eligibility going forward.

Michael Young. Young’s future is uncertain right now. His preference would be to be traded, but as yet that hasn’t happened. With the signing of Adrian Beltre, Young is no longer the starting 3B in Texas. He’s said that he’s willing to play other positions, including the outfield. However, the Texas outfield is manned by Cruz and Hamilton in the corners, and neither of them is going anywhere. Julio Borbon is holding down CF, and he’s young, inexpensive and the Rangers like him, plus I’m not sure Young would have CF range. As of now, I’d probably consider him a 3B-eligible DH, which doesn’t affect his value at all. However, there is one potential jackpot situation. Ian Kinsler hasn’t once stayed healthy for a whole season, and Young is a former 2B – a dreadful defensive one, but that doesn’t matter to us, right? Further, Texas asked their primary 2B back-up, Andres Blanco, to start developing himself as an outfielder. If Young sticks in Texas, a Kinsler injury and a return to 2B for Young would be great for his value.

Moves to DH. Along with Michael Young, Bobby Abreu and Magglio Ordonez are slated to move to full time DH roles. While the move shouldn’t mean anything for the value of a usually healthy Abreu, perhaps avoiding the field might help Ordonez avoid the DL. Ordonez was on his way to a renaissance season in 2010, until he was cut down by injury. Projected to hit third in Detroit’s order, a healthy Magglio could rack up the RBIs and the runs, with Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez there to drive him in. At 37 and bearing some injury risk, Ordonez may not be somebody you want to rely on, but he’s the type of player I love to target late. He boasts an undeniable body of work and performed in line with career norms last season. In my opinion, given his price, the only risk an Ordonez owner undertakes is health. If Ordonez plays 135 games, he will be worth double his draft day price in many leagues.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:01am (7) Comments

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Roster Doctor

The Roster Doctor is back in town after a winter’s hibernation with a keeper question about closers.

10 team AL-only keeper league, you can keep up to 10 players.

I have the following players (prices in parentheses):
Chris Perez (1); David Price (13); Jeremy Hellickson (2); Colby Lewis (5); Frank Francisco (1); Kevin Gregg (3); Koji Uehara (1); Nick Swisher (8); Mike Napoli (7); Shin-Soo Choo (23); Dustin Pedroia (25); Miguel Cabrera (41); Justin Smoak (2).

Perez, Price, Hellickson and Lewis are no-brainers, as is Francisco if he's officially closing in Toronto. Gregg or Uehara would be fantastic if either had the Baltimore job locked up. My problem is this: Do I keep Perez, Price, Hellickson, Lewis, Francisco, Uehara and Gregg? That would be seven pitchers and only three hitters. Any input would be appreciated.

Thanks,
Todd

Todd:

Unlike in mixed leagues, all closers or potential closers are precious commodities in AL/NL-only leagues. Your temptation to keep as many as possible is understandably strong, given that the same pitcher on the open auction market might cost you much more if/when he’s given the closer role. Here are some factors you should consider before making your decision:

- When do you have to declare your keepers?

- When is the auction?

Why do these dates matter? The longer you can wait to declare, the more time you have to see if one of either Gregg or Uehara locks down the job. The earlier the auction, is the less valuable Gregg is on the open market (since there’ll still be a lot of uncertainty over his role) in an auction and thus the lower his keeper value is, too.

It seems like the closer’s job is Uehara’s to lose, and baring injury or a Frank Francisco 2010-type bad spell to open the season, he should keep it. Plus, with Mike Gonzalez and others lurking deeper in the Orioles' pen, Gregg himself might lose runner-up status if he has a bad spell. Also, for $3, or not much more, you should be able to land another backup with better skills or better prospects or both. Take a look at Grant Balfour in Oakland or Jake McGee in Tampa Bay or whichever one of Brandon League or David Aardsma seems undervalued by your league-mates.

The reason to not risk keeping Gregg is I think you have at least four hitters worth keeping. Swisher, Napoli and Choo are absolute musts at their keeper prices. Pedroia isn’t super cheap and he carries some injury risk still, but it is risk probably worth bearing in an AL-only league.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 2:49am (1) Comments

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Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Twisting Oliver: sophomore studs and duds