THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 4:11am (0) Comments

Stealing steals

As we approach the last few days of the season, roster activity increases to a frenzy, especially in daily transaction leagues. The transactions that occur are often centered on pressure points within the standings. Most commonly, you will teams behind the innings pace begin to spot start pitchers in an attempt to make up ground in wins and strikeouts.

In the offensive categories, it’s hard to do this because production in categories day to day is not guaranteed and there is limited opportunity to create an opportunity advantage and gain extra at-bats over your opponents. The one offensive category in which you can make a last ditch, concerted effort to nab a few points is often stolen bases.

Stolen bases are a good target for several reasons, which I’ll run through quickly. First, they are a low-volume stat, so that means the category is often close and a few steals could result in a few points in the standings. Second, there are more players who are above average at stealing bases on the waiver wire than there are in any other category, since many of them don’t provide much value elsewhere. Third, base stealing is fairly context driven. While certain parks or opposing pitchers may make homers more likely, lame duck catchers drastically increase the willingness of opposing players to steal.

What I’m going to do here is to identify some full time catchers who are especially poor at preventing stolen bases and the teams those catchers are matched up against through the rest of the season. Then, based on that schedule, I will try to identify a couple of players likely available in many fantasy leagues who may swipe several bags over the last dozen or so games and maybe swing your fortunes in your league.

John Buck	18.7%	WAS	ATL	MIL	WAS
A.J. Pierzynski	20.4%	KC	CLE	KC	TOR
Brian McCann	20.7%	NYM	FLA	WAS	PHIL
Ronny Paulino/Josh Thole	21.8%/19.4%	ATL	STL	PHIL	CIN
Rod Barajas	23%	PIT	SF	SD	ARI
Jonathan Lucroy	24.5%	CIN	CHC	FLA	PIT

Obviously, any player with above average base-stealing potential has an increased likelihood of stealing a few bases when matched up against any of these teams. If we look at this a bit more institutionally, we can identify teams that have more than one series against catchers unable to shut down the running game. Washington, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh all appear multiple times. The Nationals lead the way with three of four remaining series against catchers with caught-stealing rates below 25 percent.

Here are some players who may be available in your league and might be able to take advantage of this dynamic over the final dozen games of the season. Yahoo! league ownership percentage is in parenthesis

Ian Desmond (57 percent)
Danny Espinosa (45 percent)
Jordan Schafer (2 percent)
Jose Tabata (39 percent)

Other players who don’t benefit from this context, but who are owned in fewer than 20 percent of leagues and could provide a boost of speed down the stretch include:

Dee Gordon (15 percent)
Ben Revere (3 percent)
Jason Bourgeois (6 percent) (His playing time has been spotty recently.)

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 4:50am (4) Comments

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Endgame reminders

So, this is the home stretch. There isn't much to advise at this point. Most of you who are still regularly reading fantasy baseball content are either trying to protect a slim lead or are fighting an uphill battle and embracing your puncher's chance. As we approach endgame, I want to advise you of two tactics that some may consider a bit uncouth, but are fully above board in my book.

The first tactic is for those protecting leads. One of the primary ways those nipping at your heels will try to claim key points (from you or third parties) will be by streaming starters in pursuit of Ks and Ws—a good run of luck can even yield rate-stat help. Though fantasy strategy rarely summons defensive ambition, it is perfectly acceptable to play such dominant strategies. When I've been in this situation I've been known to beat my competitors to the wire and gobble up the most attractive streamer options, only to hoard them on my bench for their starts. You do not have to intend to play a player to pick him up; removing him from the pool of options is a fully valid and ethical motivation. We pick up offensive players with the intent of using them as bench depth all the time. If you can't be the first to the wire for tomorrow, you can look a day or two out.

This strategy also gives you flexibility to respond to extreme play from your opponents. The chaser's imperative should be to play in such a way as to force you to alter your own play in a way that could prove suboptimal. A good run of spot starts by an opponent may force you to react to the chaser's moves by streaming a starter or two of your own. If you already have the best options on your roster, you're in the best position to benefit from—or at least weather—a strategic deviation, should you be forced to employ one.

For those chasing these points, remember that the inherent systematic loophole (in Yahoo! at least) is your best way to gain an opportunity advantage. Here is your yearly reminder that the innings pitched cap tracker does not update in real-time. This means that if you have a single IP remaining on the final day of the season, you can start as many pitchers as you want and get as many free innings as you are willing to take from pitchers decreasingly likely to offer redeeming performances.

This day is often a free-for-all in my home league, so at times certain owners have chosen to go all-in on the second to last day to ensure a less-contested chance at the best streamer options in the pool. That may be worth considering if the cat is out of the bag in your league as well.

I've seen crazy things happen on the last day. Last year, I was in second place and had a big cushion to third, I went all in with five or six final day starts and made up five pitching points across various categories with an improbable flurry of gems from veritable retreads, train wrecks and unknowns. I almost pulled off a miracle final-hour coup on the backs of a regimen of outcasts, finishing just one point shy of a title.

This is the day the marginal leaders fear and those at the precipice of cashing out lust—the true puncher's chance. Don't miss out on your free lotto ticket, and prepare for it by doing what you have to do to get first choice of the options. There is nothing afoul about this—it is an inherent system-based loophole that is equally available to all. If some in your league are unaware of it, too bad; asymmetry of information is not an ethical issue.

Best of luck to all those throwing the haymakers, as well as to those trying to dodge or counter them. Our tomorrows are nearly gone and desperation rules today. There's both profound beauty and ugliness in someone with nothing to fear—but the victors write history, so your ultimate standing will determine whether way your actions are remembered as genius or petty.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:24am (6) Comments

Monday, September 26, 2011

THT’s top 100 prospects, part 1

Let's get some housekeeping out of the way before proceeding to the fun part (i.e., the list).

To qualify for our top 100, a player had to meet Baseball America's definition of a prospect, which varies slightly from Major League Baseball's criteria for retaining rookie eligibility. A batter must not have exceeded 130 at bats in the majors and a pitcher must not have thrown more than 50 innings or made more than 30 relief appearances.

Remember that this is a fantasy baseball prospect list, not a list of the best prospects in baseball. In fantasy, the only relevance of a player's defense is whether it is going to remain good enough for him stick at his current defensive home, especially when that position is short on talent in fantasy baseball.

A lot of factors went into deciding who should rank where, including a player's ceiling and floor, age, organization, position, and a many others. I tended to lean in favor of players with high ceilings than those with high floors. I also weighed scouting reports more heavily than performance in most cases, though not all. Players at scarce fantasy position got bonus points and ranked higher.

Prospects with 80 grades (using the 20-to-80 scouting scale) either on their present or future power were looked on more favorably than those with 80 grades on any other tool. Prospects with high marks in speed who also show an aptitude for hitting or getting on base—or are projected to do so—also ranked highly.

When it was a close call between a hitter or a pitcher, the hitter usually got the nod. In close calls between pitching prospects, left-handed pitchers rated higher than right-hand pitchers, and younger pitchers were rated higher than older pitchers. The current level that prospects play at played a role, but less so than I would have expected going in.

I'd like to extend a special thanks to Brian Cartwright, who was kind enough to allow me to use his Minor League Equivalent information and provided me with insight that is passed along in the form of "Forecast Notes" below. MLEs can be found as part of the THT Forecasts.

Here are your top 100 fantasy baseball prospects. Check back for updates sometime after the Arizona Fall League season.

1: Bryce Harper/OF/Washington Nationals/10-16-92/ETA: 2012
Forecast Notes:35+ HR
Current Level: Double-A (7-day Disabled List with a hamstring strain)
Scouting Notes: Last year's top overall selection in the draft has lived up to his lofty billing as arguably the top prospect in baseball. He opened the year in High-A, no small feat for an 18-year-old, and promptly showed off all of his tools. His power was on display with 14 home runs in 258 at-bats in High-A and he tacked on three more in 129 Double-A at-bats.

In addition to his power tool, which is his greatest asset, he displayed tremendous strike zone awareness with a 59:87 walk-to-strikeout rate between both minor league stops. Perhaps most surprising is Harper's above-average speed, which allowed him to steal 26 bases with a passable seven times caught stealing. At just 18, Harper is built like a Mack truck at 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, but in the event he further fills out as he ages, his speed tool will almost certainly be adversely affected. On the flip side, such maturation may further enhance his power tool ,which projects to rate as an 80 on the 20-80 scale.

With power numbers down in the majors the past few seasons, Harper gets the nod over fellow blue chip prospect Mike Trout for top honors on this list.

2: Mike Trout/OF/Los Angeles Angels/ 8-7-91/ ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes:.300+ BA, 20+ HR
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: For those who like to straddle fences, Trout could easily be considered 1A. He played most of this season as a 19-year-old in Double-A before the Angels promoted him for the first time in July. He raked in the minors, but was unable to carry that over when making the leap from Double-A to the majors. He wasn't entirely overmatched, though, and his second go-round has been much kinder to him.

His greatest fantasy asset is his 80 speed tool. Unlike some speedsters, Trout isn't a one-trick pony. He possesses the skills necessary to hit for average, reach base via the walk, and even hit for above-average power down the line. Five-tool players with an advanced approach at the plate who reach the major leagues before their 20th birthday are a rare breed, and Trout is just that. Gamers who play in leagues with specific outfield designations (i.e. left field, center field, right field) have a strong case to flip-flop Trout with Harper on this list.

3: Matt Moore/SP/Tampa Bay Rays/6-18-89/ETA: 2012
Forecast Notes: Breakout 2011, greatly improved BB/9: 7.9, 5.7, 2.7; 9+ K/9
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes: Coming into the season just one facet of Moore's game needed further refining, something he already began to iron out in the second half of 2010: his command and control. Moore has done that this year. shaving a full walk off his 2010 BB/9 rate while maintaining a strikeout rate that would be elite by relief pitcher standards. He toyed with Double-A and Triple-A hitters this year and catapulted himself to top status amongst prospect pitchers.

Moore is a southpaw who comes at hitters with a plus velocity fastball that touched triple digits in the Futures Game, and routinely sits in the mid-90s, a curveball and a change-up. He is the total package, and has the goods necessary to outperform Jeremy Hellickson's impressive (though luck-aided) rookie season.

4: Jason Kipnis/2B/Cleveland Indians/4-3-87/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes:Brian and the Forecast don't like him this high and view him as a solid regular at second base.
Current Level: MLB
Notes: Originally an outfielder, Kipnis has made the transition to second base successfully over the last two seasons. He has done nothing but hit at a high level at each stop along the professional ladder, including his brief time in the majors. He doesn't have one standout tool, but offers teens to low 20s home run power with enough speed to challenge double digit stolen bases yearly. He's striking out far too often at the major league level to maintain a useful average, but it's likely he'll cut back on the whiffs; he had never posted a strikeout rate over 20 percent at any minor league stop. His overall stat line is likely to be bested in prime years by some of the players ranked behind him, but his positional eligibility, blend of skills, and high floor are why he is ranked as he is.

5: Manny Machado/SS/Baltimore Orioles/7-6-92/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Small sample with Machado, but his peak projects to come around 2016-2017 and he looks to be a player who can hit for contact and rip 25+ HR's.
Current Level: Hi-A
Scouting Notes: His stats won't jump off the page, but Machado's full season debut has been solid. Machado is an offensive-minded shortstop who is expected by most to stick there. As a toolsy high school shortstop who played his ball in Miami, he elicited comparisons to Alex Rodriguez. While it's not fair to saddle the youngster with that comparison, he does have a high ceiling in his own right. Most scouting reports project him for mid-teens to low 20s home run power with an average in the .300 range once he fully matures.

His numbers this season may not suggest at an elite level for the offensively devoid shortstop position, but it's important to remember he played most of the year as an 18-year-old and there is a lot of projection and physical maturation to come. Believe the hype, and invest in a premium talent who could find himself atop this list next year if Harper graduates to the majors.

6: Devin Mesoraco/C/Cincinnati Reds/6-19-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: Ready to be in the majors now, projects as a 25-HR type.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: If not for the strong play of Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan, the Reds likely would have summoned Mesoraco prior to September on the heels of his second strong year. It took him a few seasons, but last year Mesoraco began to show his offensive prowess, and that play carried over to this year.

He offers plus power for the catcher position along with an astute eye that has helped him draw walks in over 10 percent of his plate appearances this season. A reasonable comp for Mesoraco would be Carlos Santana, with a bit less pop and current on-base skills. That difference in home run power may not fully show itself as Mesoraco will be playing his home games in a more favorable ballpark for hitting home runs. Reviews of his defense are encouraging enough to expect him to catch for an extended period of time, even if it will be as no more than an adequate defender with a plus bat. In the fantasy game, all that matters is that he retains the "C" next to his name in the lineup.

7: Jesus Montero/C/New York Yankees/11-28-89/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes Two-year slide, but still good at catcher. Glove not Ryan Doumit bad, but bat might not play at 1B/DH until 2013/14.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: He's listed as a catcher now, but it is nearly impossible to find a scouting report that considers Montero as anything more than a designated hitter masquerading as a catcher. Only the most arduous Yankees homers seem to think he can stick behind the plate; thus, he's ranked behind players he would otherwise be ranked in front of should he remain at his current defensive home. Montero's bat was amongst the best in the minors, and at just 21 this year he was young for the Triple-A level.

He offers plus power with projection for more down the road, but not at the expense of average. If he remains a Yankee and isn't used as a trade chip, he should be the full-time designated hitter in 2012. Ideally, at least from a fantasy perspective, he'll also serve as the backup catcher logging enough time to retain eligibility there. The Yankees have a number of aging players inked to long term deals who may be best suited playing designated hitter in the near future, leaving open the possibility Montero's future lies elsewhere. Regardless of where he calls home, both city and defensively, Montero is a young hitter who should be treasured in fantasy leagues.

8: Gary Sanchez/C/New York Yankees/12-2-92/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Peak year projected in 2017 with a slash of .294/.345/.666 good for a 1.011 OPS!
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Report: His projection seems optimistic, but he's succeeding as a 19-year-old and has superb scouting reports. No questions about his ability to stay behind the plate, and the only thing that prevents him from slotting in just behind the big two is that he's still in the low minors and requires some dreaming on. He possesses plus raw power that is showing itself in games already and a plus hit tool that's still developing. Time is very much on his side, and thanks to his position his ceiling is higher than any other player on this list including Harper and Trout. The Yankees struck gold signing this young Dominican-born catcher to a $3 million bonus.

9: Jurickson Profar/SS/Texas Rangers/2-20-93/ETA: 2013
Forecast NotesGood glove, good contact, .280 BA, .200 ISO.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: Profar is an exceptional talent at the shortstop position both in the field and at the plate. Jason Parks and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus are two of his biggest advocates, but the likes of John Sickels and the stable of writers/scouts at Baseball America also yield glowing reviews. He could easily be ranked next to, or even above Machado: His results have been better, he's younger and projects to be above average as an up-the-middle infield defender. I rank him a few spots later because I think he'll be forced to move to second base. In most organizations, there would be no question he'd stick at his current position, but the Rangers have this guy Elvis Andrus already in place, and he's pretty good.

Profar's command of the strike zone is mind-boggling for an 18-yea- old. He walked more than he struck out this year, and done so as a player who hits for pop and not just a slap singles type. The Rangers have set a precedent of aggressiveness with Andrus, indicating that if Profar is up for the challenge, they'll continue to move him up.

10: Miguel Sano/3B/Minnesota Twins/5-11-93/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Elite level power, maybe 40+ HR, but few walks, 100+ K
Current Level: Rookie-Level Appalachian League
Scouting Notes: Sano requires quite a bit of dreaming on to justify this ranking. He crushed the ball in the Appalachian League, but it's his projection for plus-plus power in the future, potentially at third base, that should excite people. The biggest question is where his defensive home will be when he reaches the majors. He has seen time at shortstop and third base, but is a near certainty to be pushed off shortstop as his base fills out and he loses range. He has a strong arm, so third base is possible, but he'll have to further refine his skills there to stick. Even in the worst case scenario, where he is moved to the corner outfield, which is what Kevin Goldstein expects, his power potential puts him a cut above the rest.

11: Hak-Ju Lee/SS/Tampa Bay Rays/11-4-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Great glove (maybe top three in the majors), breakout 2011, .280 AVG with the ability to draw walks, little power.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Prior to the season the Rays dealt Matt Garza to the Cubs for a gaggle of prospects. The highest rated prospect was Chris Archer who was coming off a solid 2010 campaign. The true crown jewel appears to be Hak-Ju Lee, who had a breakout 2011 season.

The primary responsibility of any up-the-middle player is defense, and Lee's is banner. What matters more to fantasy gamers, though, is that he comes equipped with the ability to hit. His power may never show itself as more than average, and his MLEs suggest it won't, but some scouting reports suggest his plus bat speed could result in gap power with some round trippers tossed in as he matures. His speed should allow him to take advantage of his strong on-base skills and steal bases. He's one level below Tim Beckham who is in Triple-A right now, but is the better bet to play shortstop for the Rays when he gets there.

12:Travis d'Arnaud/C/Toronto Blue Jays/2-10-89/ETA 2012
Forecast Notes: MLEs and Brian suggest he rank a bit lower, but he projects to hit in the .250-.260 range with 20-25 HRs.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Behind just Mesoraco and Sanchez, d'Arnaud is an exciting offensively talented catcher. J.P. Arencibia is currently catching for the parent club, and while he's made strides defensively he's still not an asset back there. d'Arnaud is the future at catcher for the Blue Jays and should dispatch of Arencibia. perhaps as soon as next year thanks to stronger defensive skills and better hittinh skills than Arencibia, who relies on an all-or-nothing approach.

13: Trevor Bauer/SP/Arizona Diamondbacks/1/17/91/ETA: 2012
Forecast Notes: Brian suggests he may be capable of a 3.5 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9, and I'm inclined to agree based on scouting reports.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: His unorthodox workout regimen and delivery may have caused some concern for teams in the draft, but the Diamondbacks didn't hesitate to select the UCLA Bruins' best pitcher last year, better than No. 1 overall selection Gerrit Cole. Jim Callis of Baseball America had him rated as the top college pitcher, and had him behind only high school flame-thrower Dylan Bundy when rating this draft class' arms.

A right-handed pitcher, he throws his fastball with low-to-mid 90s velocity and can reach back and dial it up to 95-96 on occasion. According to Project Prospect he throws both a two-seamer and a four-seamer, and both are plus pitches. All scouting outlets seem to agree he throws a plus breaking ball, with some referring to it as a curveball and others a slider. Baseball America suggest he throws both and even has a split finger in his tool belt. It is also universally agreed that he throws a change-up. Such a mix of pitches gives him the goods necessary to toy with hitters and go through lineups multiple times. Don't be scared off by his quirky, high-torque delivery. A little guy from the University of Washington has done okay for himself in San Francisco in spite of the same concerns.

14:Julio Teheran/SP/Atlanta Braves/2-9-90/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: 8.1 K/9 MLE in 2010 dropped to 6.5 K/9 in 2010. Strong walk rates at 3.3 BB/9 in 2010 and 3.5 BB/9 in 2011. 3.50 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this year suggest he's ready.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: Just 20 years old this season and already made his major league debut. Strong MLEs are supported by scouting reports that love his stuff that includes a premium fastball and two secondary pitches, curveball and change-up, that project to be above average. Not a finished product, but ready for full time major league duty. The best of a crop of strong pitchers in the Braves system.

15: Tyler Skaggs/SP/Arizona Diamondbacks/7-13-91/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: ERA projected at just below 4.00 starting in 2014 with his WHIP settling below 1.30 that same season. His K/9 projects to be 8.0 or higher starting next year with a walk rate of 3.3 BB/9 and improving through 2017.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Skaggs was the prime get in the Dan Haren deal to the Angels. He's a southpaw with a fastball in the upper 80s to low 90s with a frame that may allow him to add a tick or two (though no in season scouting reports around the 'net suggest that has been the case yet). He also throws a curveball that Baseball America graded as the best in the Diamondbacks system coming into the season, and a change-up. His strong play has moved him up prospect rankings and allowed him to surpass teammate Jarrod Parker in most onlookers' eyes.

16: Shelby Miller/SP/St. Louis Cardinals/10-10-90/ETA:2013
Forecast Notes: Breakout season, but walk rate needs further refinement, 4.3 BB/9 in 2010 and regressed to 4.8 BB/9 this year. His strikeout rate remained elite while climbing levels at 9.3 K/9 this year.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Miller is a young pitcher with front line starter stuff that supports his projected high strikeout rate at the major league level and current production in the minors. His best pitch is his heater, but it is supported by a 12-6 curveball and a developing change-up. Positive scouting reports from multiple outlets plus solid forecast. Toss in his current organization, which calls the National League and a home run-suppressing Busch Stadium home, and it is easy to envision him leap-frogging some of the arms in front of him.

17: Anthony Rendon/3B/Washington Nationals/6-6-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Projects to hit for a useful average and power while posting a strikeout rate not typically associated with a player with pop.
Current Level: Unassigned as a 2011 draftee
Scouting Notes: A strained shoulder caused Rendon to log a great deal of time at the designated hitter position for the Rice Owls this season and likely contributed to his drop in power production. Teams appeared to be scared off by his medicals as he slid to the Nationals at pick six. I'm not privy to his medical records, but find it encouraging that the Nationals were confident enough in him to snap him up as a top-10 selection. If there were no medical red flags he'd be higher on this list, though.

With Ryan Zimmerman already at third base, Rendon may be forced to switch position,s with second base being a likely home. The Nationals may also opt to develop him as a third baseman, where his skills grade out as plus, and cross the bridge of determining what to do with him when they get there. Rendon sat atop Baseball America's pre-draft rankings, no small feat as many pundits viewed this draft as one of the more talented and deep in recent years.

18: Drew Pomeranz/SP/Colorado Rockies/11-22-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Breakout season that saw him improve his walk rate to 4.2 BB/9, but a dip in his strikeout rate put it at 7.5 K/9.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: Who better to describe his pitching arsenal than Pomeranz himself? Pomeranz's bread and butter is a spike curve that he can use to get hitters from each side of the plate. As a lefty with plus velocity and a plus breaking ball, the foundation is already in place for success. The key is his ability to use his change-up to keep hitters off balance. It's not pre-humidor Coors, but it is still a launching pad so he'll need to turn some of his flyball outs into groundball outs. Overall, a solid debut in professional baseball that points to a promising future if he continues to develop accordingly.

19: Ryan Lavarnway/C/Boston Red Sox/8-7-87/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: 25+ HR
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes: Lavarnway's bat is tremendous, and if it can stick at catcher it is elite. When he was drafted, most felt he had nearly a zero percent shot to stick there, but he has worked hard and improved by most accounts. He still has a large number of detractors, but at least he now has a shot. The Red Sox dealt Tim Federowicz, a prospect catcher with a strong defensive reputation but no bat. That may be an indicator that the Red Sox have faith in Lavarnway sticking behind the plate in the short term.

If Theo Epstein re-signs David Ortiz to serve as the team's designated hitter, Lavarnway's only immediate path to playing time, barring injury, will be as a catcher.

20: Nolan Arenado/3B/Colorado Rockies/4-16-91/ETA: 2015
Forecast Notes: Peak .284/.324/.479, bad defense in 2010 but average in 2011, great contact but few walks.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: A 20-year-old who is moving one level at a time, Arenado has plenty of time to remain on that development arc. Not a lock to stick at third base, but this projection operates under the assumption that his average defense shown this year will allow him to stay there for a bit. Most scouting reports consider his bat the best in the Rockies system. Playing home games at Coors has its perks, and Arenado could be a beneficiary.

21: Jean Segura/SS/Los Angeles Angels/3-17-90/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Expected to break in as a .277 hitter and remain there hitting 10 HRs and stealing mid-teens bases.
Current Level: Rehab assignment for hamstring injury.
Scouting Notes: A player scouts like better than the Forecaster. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus noted in April that he looked good making the transition from second base to shortstop, something that would help his value greatly. He may fill out and lose range, leading to a move back to second base, but at either middle infield position he'll hold fantasy value if his tools develop. He should hit for average power, with an above-average hitting and and above-average speed if everything falls into place.

22: Kolten Wong/2B/St. Louis Cardinals/10-10-90/ETA:2013
Forecast Notes: Good contact with a peak .290/.351/.463.
Current Level:Single-A
Scouting Notes: Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks is a Wong believer but alludes to a potential move to left field that would cripple his value in fantasy. Baseball America also cites his ability to play a super utility type role. Small in stature, but not lacking for pop, he could produce teens home run totals. He's a plus hitter and average speed but good baserunning instincts that could net him useful stolen base totals.

23: Martin Perez/SP/Texas Rangers/4-4-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Too many walks and hasn't put together a major league-quality season yet. Still young and in Triple-A, allowing for a projection of 3.4 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9.
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes: As I ranked players using good old-fashioned pen and paper, Perez made me regret not opting for pencil as he was moved on the list often. Like Brian and the Forecaster, I'd like to see more results. That said, it's hard not to get excited about a 20-year-old southpaw in Triple-A with gaudy scouting reports and plus velocity. Baseball America thinks highly enough of him to rank him sixth on its midseason top-50 prospect rankings list.

J.J. Cooper's July 8 midseason top-50 prospect chat wrap addressed a reader's question about Perez's performance citing scouts saying he's shown three plus pitches. Let that sink in for a second: not one, not two, but three plus pitches from a left-handed pitcher with plus velocity and is in Triple-A at 20 Those who have faith in him putting things together would be justified in ranking him higher, and those who wish to see him perform better in games would be equally justified in moving him down the list. This serves as a happy medium ranking.

24: Jameson Taillon/SP/Pittsburgh Pirates/11-18-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Too small a sample size to draw firm conclusions, but he's a young flame-thrower who's striking hitters out while pounding the zone.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: Apparently the Pirates said they'd have taken Taillon over Harper if they'd had the top pick. Seems like that might be a creative way for the Pirates to give their 2010 draft pick a pat on the back, but it also speaks to Taillon's talent. He has a power arsenal with a blazing heater, a hammer curveball and a wipe-out slider. He has acclimated himself to pro baseball just fine with a tremendous 94:20 strikeout-to-walk rate in 88.2 innings in Single-A. As pitc her drafted out of high school, and as part of a thrifty ballclub, it's likely the Pirates will bring him along slowly.

25: Jacob Turner/SP/Detroit Tigers/5-21-91/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: Two solid years with good control but only average strikeout rates.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: Turner was considered the top high school pitcher in the 2009 draft, and the Tigers promptly snapped him up and paid him an above-slot $5.5 million. He's a three-pitch starter with a fastball around 92-94 mph that can be bumped up a bit when he needs a little extra oomph. Most scouting reports describe his heater as having sink or boring action, which help him induce ground balls. His best secondary offering is a developing 12-to-6 curveball with plus potential and a change-up that could end up being an average big league pitch.

He has moved quickly, and in a perfect world has the package to develop into a top of the rotation starter. His control is quite good, but his strikeout rate leaves something to be desired from a fantasy perspective. The natural fear for those who have followed the Tigers' recent development of pitching arms is that Turner turns into Rick Porcello version 2.0. He hasn't been rushed as quickly, and has struck out more hitters in his brief Triple-A and major league time, so don't rush to that assumption just yet.

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 3:22am (12) Comments

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

The Verdict: 2011 fantasy baseball awards

With the baseball season about to end, the fantasy season nears its conclusion as well. This edition of The Verdict will deviate from my typical writing about fantasy baseball league issues and disputes. Instead, here are awards for 10 categories of fantasy goodness and badness (just go with it). The names of the categories are made up and should in no way be construed as an endorsement by the person(s) attached to the nomenclature.

10. Young MC Award for the Biggest Fantasy Bust: This award goes to the player who failed to reach and/or exceed expectations to the highest degree. The recipient is Boston outfielder Carl Crawford.

I am not one to say I told you so, but I told you so. For years, I have been flabbergasted at how overrated he is in terms of fantasy baseball. Yes, I get it, the guy steals bases and hits for average. But so do many others. This year, he signed a ridiculous contract with the Red Sox and was projected to put up numbers like no other. In preseason mock drafts, he was almost always a top five pick, and in some instances, the first or second overall selection. However, he got off to a horrendous start never fully recovered despite a few hot streaks. Those who wasted an early pick on him have been treated to a pedestrian season of .259, 11 home runs, 56 RBI, 64 runs scored and 18 stolen bases. While he is likely to improve on these statistics in 2012, it cannot be forgotten how awful this season has been for him.

9. Captain Jack Sparrow Award for Best Fantasy Hidden Treasure: This award goes to the player who most pleasantly surprised fantasy owners out of nowhere. While Curtis Granderson certainly exceeded expectations, his performance is not as surprising as one of his Yankee predecessors. No, not Gerald Williams or Karim Garcia. I am referring to Melky Cabrera.

I will be the first to admit that I never thought he could produce at the clip he did this year. After being released by the Braves, he signed a small deal with Kansas City in the offseason and was likely going to be a transitional player until one of the Royals' many prospects was ready to claim the position. Instead, he has put up five-category numbers all season and entrenched himself in Kansas City’s outfield for next year, when the Royals hope to finally be competitive. Cabrera has hit .304 with 18 home runs, 87 RBI, 101 runs scored and 20 stolen bases. That is astounding production from a player who might not even have been drafted in your fantasy league. The question is whether the Melk-Man can deliver again in 2012.

8. Kyra Sedgwick Award for Best Closer: You may be wondering who Kyra Sedgwick is. She is the star of TNT’s show “The Closer,” which has absolutely nothing to do with baseball. She is also known as Kevin Bacon’s wife, so she is likely less than one degree separated from him.

While Mariano Rivera is without a doubt the greatest closer in baseball history and the one guy you would want in a game during the playoffs, he did not have the best season of any closer this year. That distinction goes to Braves rookie sensation Craig Kimbrel. All he has done is save 46 games while posting a 2.00 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP to go along with 126 strikeouts and four wins. He has been dominant all season and will go into 2012 as the top-ranked closer. He is a lock for National League Rookie of the Year. His his electric stuff is one of the primary reasons for the Braves’ success this year. Now Kimbrel can be used as an answer the next time you play Six Degrees of Separation from Kevin Bacon. You’re welcome.

7. O.J. Simpson Award for Biggest Fall From Grace:– The winner of the category is Jason Bay. I must preface this explanation by stating that in no way do I suspect Jason Bay has any intentions of murdering his wife or stealing memorabilia from people at knifepoint. Instead, I elicit O.J. because of his o-ce prominent stature and his subsequent fall from the proverbial pedestal.

Bay was one of the best outfielders in baseball for six years before he signed a lucrative contract with the Mets. In 2010, he struggled mightily in his first year in New York and then had his season ended prematurely with a concussion. Coming into 2011, all expectations were that Bay just needed time to adjust and get healthy, and soon enough he would begin putting up numbers commensurate with his history. Not so much. Despite some nagging injuries, Bay has played almost every day and has put up numbers that are more in line with an aging backup outfielder. His average has hovered in the .230-.240 range most of the year and has recently edged up around .250. But he still has only 12 home runs, inexcusable for a guy expected to hit 30-35 in his prime years. After two consecutive seasons of this, Bay has reached scrap heap status for your 2012 draft.

6. Biff Tannen Award for Biggest Crash Into a Manure Truck: While this award is somewhat similar to the biggest bust and biggest fall from grace, it is distinctive because it celebrates truly the worst fantasy baseball player all season. In a unanimous decision, this award goes to Adam Dunn of the White Sox.

Dunn has had statistically one of the worst seasons in baseball history with his worse-than-Mendoza-line batting average of .163 to go along with 11 home runs and 42 RBI. After averaging almost 40 homers a year since 2004, Dunn has struggled (to say the least) in his switch to the American League and the DH spot. He was pegged as a lock for another 40 home runs, 100 RBI, and 100 runs scored before the season. To say he failed to reach those expectations may be the biggest understatement ever in the history of understatements.

5. Jesus H. Christ Award for Biggest Fantasy Career Resurrection: Without getting theological, this award is given to the player whose once prominent career was deemed almost over, but suddenly came alive once again in 2011 (but without the Easter Bunny). The winner is former fantasy first round pick Lance Berkman.

After a disastrous 2010 season which saw his power sapped and batting average dropped, Berkman revitalized his career in St. Louis, hitting in a lineup with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. He had some nagging injuries, but he stayed relatively healthy and played in the outfield practically every day. Berkman has put up Berkman-esque numbers with a .298 batting average, 31 home runs, 91 RBI, and 86 runs scored. He slowed down significantly in the second half, but his overall production was in line with his career numbers. Whether he can replicate this next season is another question, but for 2011 we cracked open a bottle of vintage Lance Berkman circa 2005.

4. Pamela Anderson’s Breasts Award for Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Many players saw their numbers increase significantly in one area or another compared to 2010. But no one saw an increase as significant as Jacoby Ellsbury of the Boston Red Sox.

Granted he was injured most of 2010 and was limited to only 18 games and 78 at bats, but he had a resume already from 2008 and 2009. After his heart and dedication were questioned by Red Sox management and fans, Ellsbury blossomed into one of the top stars in the league. He hit over .300 in 2009, but this season saw his batting average jump to .322. Most surprisingly, he developed a power stroke and smashed 31 home runs; his career total before 2011 was 20 home. As the leadoff hitter, he has driven in 103 runs while also scoring 117 runs. His stolen base totals have dipped a bit down to 38, but that is as a result of hitting more extra base hits. He has amassed 45 doubles and five triples. He also leads the league in total bases with 356 and is near the top with 208 hits.

3. Henry Rowengartner Award for Fantasy Rookie of the Year: While Craig Kimbrel does deserve serious consideration for this award as well, this award goes to Kansas City first baseman Eric Hosmer. While the Royals did have a first baseman who won the AL Rookie of the Year in 1995, I do not see the same type of sophomore slump that Bob Hamelin suffered. Hosmer was a top prospect in Kansas City’s organization and justified the hype when he received the promotion earlier in 2011. In almost a full season (500+ at bats), he has hit .297 with 19 home runs, 77 RBI, 66 runs scored and 11 stolen bases. All indications are that he will only get better and develop more power as he gets older and stronger. He is a viable keeper option and should be in your top 10 list of fantasy first baseman for 2012.

2. Randy Johnson Award for Fantasy Cy Young: In a unanimous decision, Justin Verlander wins this award with only Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee receiving any consideration.

Verlander has had one of the most dominating and awe-inspiring seasons by a pitcher in decades. He has won 24 games, unbelievable in this age of five-man rotations and an emphasis on bullpen usage. He has a 2.28 ERA and a microscopic WHIP of 0.90 to go along with his league-leading 244 strikeouts. He has four complete games, a no-hitter, and 28 quality starts out of his 33 total. He mixes a 100 mph fastball with a devastating curveball and has proven to be the true definition of an ace. In points-based leagues, he has by far the most points of any pitcher.

1. Albert Pujols Award for Fantasy MVP: In fantasy baseball, no one cares whether the team the player plays for makes the playoffs or is in contention at the end of the season. That is why this final award for best overall fantasy player goes to Matt Kemp of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

It was a close call in the end as Jacoby Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson received consideration. But Kemp is contending for a Triple Crown and emerged as one of the best overall players in baseball, both real and fantasy. Kemp is currently hitting .324, third in the National League. He also has 37 home runs (tied with Pujols) and 120 RBI (leads the National League). To go along with these numbers, he has 112 runs scored and 40 stolen bases. Put all of this together and you have the best fantasy baseball player of the year. True, Verlander could be considered for this as well, but I choose to discriminate against pitchers when giving out MVP awards. Sue me.

Posted by Michael Stein at 2:42am (3) Comments

THT’s top 100 prospects, part 2

26: Carlos Martinez (formerly Carlos Matias)/SP/St. Louis/9-21-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Control issues and poor in High-A in 2011 but has good strikeouts. Projected 3.6 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 4.49 ERA; by 2017 2 WAR
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: Martinez is another example of scouting reports straying from future projection based on current statistical performance. He throws with easy velocity, according to Keith Law, and can hit triple digits on the radar gun. Guys who throw plus-plus velocity heaters that light up the radar gun are few and far between.

Even more exciting is that the pitch is far from straight and has natural cutting action, according to Baseball America. He ranked 18th on its Top-50 Midseason Prospect list, and fourth on Law's. In addition to his exceptional fastball he features a curveball and is developing a change-up. His poor walk rate and high ERA in High-A may allow a buying window on this youngster in dynasty leagues. Once the performance catches up to the stuff, or perhaps if it catches up, he'll be a tough player to pry away from an opposing owner.

27: Dylan Bundy/SP/Baltimore Orioles/11-15-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast Notes: 2011 draftee out of high school without a current projection
Current Level: Unassigned 2011 draftee
Scouting Notes: Bundy rates 28th on this list based entirely on scouting reports, as he has no professional experience or forecast projection. He's has a power arm that throws at 94-96 mph and has touched 100 mph repeatedly. The most encouraging part of any Bundy scouting report regards his secondary offerings. His worst is a change-up that is described by most industry folks as average. His other secondary offerings are a plus power curveball and a plus cutter (Sickels describes the pitch as a slider, but Baseball America, Goldstein and Law describe it as a cutter). He's can throw all his pitches for strikes, and is advanced for a prep pitcher. It's a leap of faith tossing a guy with no pro experience this high, but his arsenal sounds like it has all the makings of fantasy ace.

28: Gerrit Cole/SP/Pittsburgh Pirates/9-8-90/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Two good college seasons but walk rate leaves a bit to be desired.
Current Level: Low-A
Scouting Notes: Cole's stuff is much better than his performance in college (which was pretty darn good). He throws a four-seam fastball in the mid-90s and can touch a hair under 100 mph, and a two-seam fastball that's a few ticks slower. He also throws a plus slider and a change-up that some describe as plus-plus. Law goes as far as to lump it at the same level as Johan Santana's and Clay Buchholz's change-ups. Quite high praise. Even more interesting is pre-draft talk from Law as well as Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus that suggested Cole might be as good as, or perhaps even better in the majors than Stephen Strasburg. If that's the case, this ranking will look foolishly low.

29: Taijuan Walker/SP/Seattle Mariners/8-13-92/ ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Projects 4.3 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, and 4.33 ERA in 2015.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: Impressive season in Single-A as an 18-year-old who was considered a raw high school pitcher when the Mariners selected him in the supplemental first round of the 2010 draft. In part, he was considered raw because he was a high school basketball player and played shortstop as well. He throws a fastball with heavy sink and premier velocity (can reach 98 mph). As one would expect, that sinking fastball has helped him rack up the groundball outs (1.54 ground out-to-fly out). He also throws a plus curveball and is developing a change-up. His control has been described as spotty by both Goldstein and Sickels, so a 2014 ETA may be a bit ambitious. When he does arrive in the majors, calling Safeco Field home will be a nice perk.

30: Anthony Rizzo/1B/San Diego Padres/8-8-89/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes:Brian is not high on him. Had a breakout 2011 despite major league struggles. Mid-20s homer run totals projected.
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes: Rizzo has had a huge season in the Pacific Coast League. Unfortunately, numbers in the PCL are inflated due to friendly hitting environments, so take the raw numbers with a spoonful of salt. Scouting reports aren't all glowing for Rizzo; there are questions about whether he can hit for both power and average. His desire to hit for pop has resulted in more strikeouts and a pull-happy approach.

Possibly a positive to take away from glancing at Rizzo's numbers is a dominance against right-handed pitching and struggles against left-handed pitchers (his same-handed counterparts). If it is simply a matter of needing more exposure and repetition against them, Rizzo could take another step forward in his development. The biggest knock against Rizzo may just be his home ballpark. PETCO is hell on left-handed batters, which is unfortunate because it will lower the ceiling on his greatest fantasy skill. Two years younger than Paul Goldschmidt, Rizzo would rank ahead of him if they played if their games in similar home ballparks. Alas, they do not.

31: Dayan Viciedo/OF/Chicago White Sox/3-10-89/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes:Peak .279/.324/.462 with 22 HR's. Has started taking walks in 2011. -20 fielder.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: Much better fantasy prospect than reality one. His glove is bad, really bad as the Forecast suggests, but most reports are that he has made a conscious effort to get in better shape and work on his craft. Also working in his favor is that Ozzie Guillen and Kenny Williams don't seem to give a hoot about defense anyway, playing Adam Dunn, Juan Pierre and Carlos Quentin in the outfield at various times.

Raw power is his calling card, and it has translated to games this year. If things click, he could surpass 30 home runs a year with a passable average in the upper .270s. Those in OBP leagues should bump him down a bit as this year is his first of showing any ability to draw a walk. While that patience is encouraging, it will need to carry over to next season for me to believe he's completely ditched his free-swinging ways.

32: Cheslor Cuthbert/3B/Kansas City Royals/11-16-92/ETA: 2016
Forecast Notes: 25+ homers with few walks.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: Cuthbert doesn't get the due he deserves as part of a loaded Royals farm system. At just 18, he's playing in a full season league and playing well. He has struggled of late, but some scouts believe it's a product of him wearing down. Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks called him a breakout candidate coming into the season. He describes Cuthbert as having "some of the best barrel awareness" he has ever seen in a teen. He uses the whole field as a hitter and has developing power. He's got enough defensive skills to stick at third base as well. He was an honorable mention on Law's midseason top-50 prospect list as well, and is a C+ high upside prospect in the eyes of Sickels.

33: Michael Choice/OF/Oakland A's/11-10-89/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Breakout 2010, but in 2011 walks and power have fallen back. Still projects 30+ HR with peak .271/.351/.520.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: The epitome of Three True Outcomes, Choice has the feel of a younger version of Chris Carter. It would be nice to see him continue to cut back on one of the true outcomes (strikeouts), while increasing another (walks), but his power isn't in question at all. Parks lauds his power potential and bat speed, but notes that he'll always strike out a lot. Goldstein also gushes about the power. In fact, whatever outlet for prospect info you choose to turn to, the story is the same: His power is elite but he'll need to continue to fine-tune his hit tool to succeed at the higher levels of the minors and the majors. His reduction in strikeouts from last year to this year, and from pre-All-Star break to post-All-Star break, is enough reason to buy into Choice.

34: Manny Banuelos/SP/New York Yankees/3-13-91/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Good 2009 at age 18 followed by an average 2010. Way too many walks (4.8 BB/9, 5.7 BB/9) but young enough to be projectable to 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 4.27 ERA in 2014.
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes:The gap between him and the higher-ranked Martin Perez probably isn't as big as this list might suggest. Both are young left-handers in Triple-A with plus stuff, according to industry experts. Banuelos' two best pitches by most accounts are his fastball and his change-up. His fastball resides in the low 90s and can touch 95 mph. He also throws a curveball with plus potential. The biggest concern surrounding Banuelos is his command, which has eroded since moving up the minor league ladder. At just 20, he has time to work that out.

The biggest difference between Banuelos and Perez is that Banuelos will pitch is home games at Yankee Stadium, which is more homer-happy than Rangers Ballpark at Arlington, and in the more treacherous American League East.

35: Jedd Gyorko/3B/San Diego Padres/9-23-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Peak .275/.334/.463 with 20-22 HRs.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Gyorko isn't a great defender, but he's a passable one who won't need to be moved off the hot corner, which immediately makes his offensive success this year more exciting. Most of his home run production came in the hitter-friendly Cal League, but he has done well moving up to Double-A nonetheless, hitting six home runs in 221 at-bats. He squeaked his way onto Baseball America's and Goldstein's MidSeason Top 50 Prospect list, but missed Keith Law's.

He was a college hitter drafted in last year's second round, so low minor league success was to be expected. His complete dominance was better than expectations, though, and his success in Double-A is most promising for future big league success.. Goldstein really likes his bat speed and projects average power. Playing in PETCO is no walk in the park, but right-handed hitters like Gyorko don't have to deal with the soul-crushing home run suppression left-handed hitters do. He has a higher floor and safer projection than most of the third basemen in front of him on this list, but lacks the high ceiling of the others.

36: Nick Franklin/SS/Seattle Mariners/3-2-91/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: A age 20, in 2011 regressed in power and defense. Peak .273/.322/.480 with 20+ HR and few walks.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Franklin is the Sudoku puzzle of prospects. Last year he ripped 23 home runs in his full season debut while swiping 25 bases. This year he opened in the hitter friendly confines of the High-A Cal league and his power took a dive, producing just five home runs in 258 at-bats. The Mariners promoted him to Double-A, and his power output and his hitting in general improved substantially (albeit in a small sample). He's playing passable defense at shortstop, but some, such as Jim Callis, suggest he'll eventually move to second base. He's set to play in the Arizona Fall League, and is the most likely player on this list to see his stock soar or plummet based on his performance there.

37: Bubba Starling/OF/Kansas City/8-3-92/ETA: 2016
Forecast Notes: 2011 Draftee out of high school. No forecast.
Current Level: Unassigned as a 2011 draftee
Scouting Notes: The toolsy Nebraska football recruit chose professional baseball at Major League Baseball's signing deadline. His two-sport prowess limited his opportunities to play in premium high school baseball showcase events, and leave him an exciting piece of clay that needs molding to become something special at the major league level. He's a high-risk/high-reward type who may never be able to translate his physical abilities into baseball skills, or he may take well to coaching and turn into a superstar capable of 30/30 seasons with batting average. Starling's ranking on this list is likely to be polarizing, but at a certain point that tantalizing upside is too hard to pass on.

38: Josh Bell/OF/Pittsburgh Pirates/8-12-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast Notes: 2011 Draftee out of high school. No forecast.
Current Level: Unassigned as a 2011 draftee
Scouting Notes: Many considered Bell unsignable because he and his family wrote to all major league teams before the draft informing them he wanted to attend college at the University of Texas. Ultimately, the Pirates threw caution to the wind when the risk became minimal at the top of the second round, and the gamble paid off as he signed at the deadline.

Bell is a switch hitter who most scouting reports describe as having been the best high school hitter in the draft. Scouts to project him to hit for both average and power. He doesn't offer the same speed upside of Starling, but his chance of failure seems less than Starling's as he has succeeded frequently against the top high school competition available. Power that doesn't require selling out average isn't easy to find in fantasy leagues, making Bell's potential something to covet.

39: Wil Myers/OF/Kansas City Royals/12-10-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Bad 2011 after great 2010 at age 18. Young enough to grow into peak .279/.368/.472
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Becoming a full-time outfielder in place of being developed as a catcher to get his bat to the big leagues faster, and then struggling at the plate in Double-A is a formula for sliding down prospect lists. It's hard to ignore his previous production, and he's young for the Double-A level, so repeating it to start next year isn't the end of the world. Most scouting gurus suggest his solid approach should lead to a high batting average and above-average power. There is some question whether his power will translate to games, but even in a down year there is a lot to like. Don't start selling his stock now.

40: Wilin Rosario/C/Colorado Rockies/2-23-89/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: 20 HR power but .240 average and scarce walks might keep him from a starting job.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: Rosario suffered a torn ACL last July that required surgery. His regression, namely in walk rate, can't be completely dismissed, but should probably be excused to a certain extent understanding he may not be 100 percent healthy and still recovering. He's a free swinger, but offers a lot of thump to offset it. His defense isn't in question, so a positional move won't be necessary. Next season should be telling in the development of Rosario.

41: Yasmani Grandal/C/Cincinnati Reds/11-8-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Two good years. Peak .249/.326/.411 with 12-15 HRs.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Grandal's surface numbers are more impressive than Rosario's, but the ceiling isn't described as being as high by most scouting outlets. He's also behind Mesoraco, further hurting his ranking. That said, he's a switch hitting catcher with the potential for plus offensive contributions. Catchers have a wide variety of skills they need to hone in the minors, so they develop at different speeds. He may not take the same leap fellow Reds prospect Mesoraco made because of lesser tools, but even a slight jump in production would be reason for excitement.

42: Brett Jackson/OF/Chicago Cubs/8-2-88/ETA: 2012
Forecast Notes: Peak .254/.324/.428.
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes: He doesn't have any jaw-dropping tools, but he's average to above average across the board. He's hit his way to Triple-A, and succeeded there in spite of a high strikeout rate that may pose problems in the majors. He can walk some, he can hit for some power and he can steal some bags. In a lot of ways, he resembles a Drew Stubbs-lite to me.

43: Trayvon Robinson/OF/Seattle Mariners/9-1-87/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: Brian is not impressed. Breakout power in 2011. Peak .254/.325/.419.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: Robinson is a similar player in fantasy appeal and upside to the player ranked directly in front of him. Jackson gets the spot above him because he's one year younger and plays in a friendlier home ballpark, but Robinson has switch hitting in his favor. He has a good eye, but struggles to make contact, striking out frequently. He wouldn't be the first player to succeed with high strikeout totals, but he also wouldn't be the first to be derailed by them.

44: Gary Brown/OF/San Francisco/9-28-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Projected 25-30 steals with good contact but few walks and a handful of homers.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: The Giants' 2010 first round pick played tremendously in his full season debut this year. The next step will be succeeding against upper minor league talent. He should be on the fast track to the majors, and if his tools fully develop could be a top-of-the-order hitter. He may not offer more than a handful of home runs (though Kevin Goldstein suggested in a recent podcast he could flirt with 20), but his speed is a clear 80 on the 20-80 scale and should allow him to be a big stolen base contributor (he stole 53 this year). He makes contact at a high rate, and punished the ball in the the offensive-friendly Cal League, hinting at being a batting average contributor in fantasy as well.

45: Christian Yelich/OF/Florida Marlins/12-5-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Peak .267/.334/.407 with 10/10 HR/SB.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: His hitting grades out as a plus, but his power is somewhat questionable. He may develop above-average game power, but that remains to be seen as he fills out and physically matures. He did hit 15 home runs in 461 at-bats in Single-A, which is promising. He also stole 32 bases, but I've yet to find a scouting report that describes his speed as better than average. He was caught only five times, so he may be able to get the most out of that tool with intelligent base running. He should be able to reach base often because in addition to his plus hit tool, he walks frequently (55 walks). If he continues to steal bases in the upper minors, or his power takes a step up, he'll shoot up this prospect list.

46: Jonathan Singleton/1B/OF/Houston Astros/9-18-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Peak projection .288/.372/.500 with good walk totals.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: Singleton has played first base since the Astros acquired him at the trade deadline, but he played some outfield in the Phillies system before the trade. He's a big guy, but athletic enough that scouts think he could man left field. His power projects to be a plus, and could be a plus-plus tool in the future. Despite his young age, he has already shown the ability to draw walks. If he's a first baseman, his ranking is about right, but if he's developed as an outfielder and sticks, he should be ranked a bit higher.

47: Oscar Taveras/OF/St. Louis Cardinals/6-19-92/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Breakout 2011: good average, ISO, contact, but low walk totals. Peak .300/.345/.497.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: He put up video game numbers in Single-A this year, but will be tested in the Arizona Fall League. He didn't appear high on most Cardinals prospect lists coming into the year, but should see his name move up this coming year. He would rank higher, but not all scouting reports are bullish on his future stock, and see his advanced approach for his age being the biggest reason he has been so successful, not outstanding developing tools. Others believe his total package gives him a reasonably high offensive ceiling. Such widely divergent scouting reports makes him tough to peg. If his hitting and power develop to 60 level, he should be higher, but if they fall flat and sit closer to 40, he probably doesn't belong on the list at all. Watch his Arizona Fall League performance, and more importantly, his larger sample of performance moving up a level next year.

48: Starling Marte/OF/Pittsburgh Pirates/10-9-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: .280s type hitter with a little bit of power and speed.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Marte is a tremendous athlete learning to play baseball. He's a plus defender who may force the Pirates to move Andrew McCutchen to a corner outfield position. His most salivating tool, especially from a fantasy perspective, is his plus-plus speed. His success rate (just 66.6 percent) indicates he's still learning, but his 24 stolen bases are solid. His power is average-ish, but he has a chance to contribute a bit in the future.

He hit for a ton of average (.332) in Double-A and projects to have a plus hit tool. The fly in the ointment with Marte is his incredibly aggressive approach at the plate, which may not allow him to fully take advantage of his plus-plus speed and his hitting skill if more advanced pitchers make him hit their pitches. His walk-to-strikeout rate was 22:100 this year; he'll need to learn to be patient if he wants to reach base at a high rate. Walking is considered an old person skill, so there is hope he's able to learn.

49: Anthony Gose/OF/Toronto Blue Jays/8-10-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Best MLE wOBA is .290 in 2011. Poor defense record. Peak .253/.317/.394.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Forecast doesn't like his defense, but most scouting grades suggest his best attributes are his range and arm in the outfield, and his speed. His hitting is what comes under the most scrutiny. Some reports suggest he'll be able to make enough contact to take advantage of his speed and post a decent average. Others see a guy who strikes out too frequently to hit for average.

He offers some pop, and is capable of drawing walks. If he's can get on base at even a moderate rate in the majors, he can be an impact stolen base threat with better than negligible power. If he isn't able to cut back on the strikeouts, he'll be a defensive-minded center fielder or fourth outfielder. Either of those scenarios would make him a fantasy non-contributor. The ceiling may not be high enough to offset the floor and justify this ranking. I'm buying in based on the leap he was able to make in stolen base success, and hoping that's evidence of him being coachable.

50: Arodys Vizcaino/SP/Atlanta Braves/11-13-90/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: Two good years. Cut BB/9 to below 3 with a 7.5 K/9.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: He's a former Yankees farmhand. The Braves are reaping the benefits of the prospect they received for Javier Vazquez. His stuff grades out well by all scouting outlets, and his performance has been tremendous. Just taking those into account, he'd rank considerably higher.

Not all is good with Vizcaino, though, which is why he lands on the list here. Last year he opted to rehab a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament (the Tommy John ligament). Thus far, that appears to have been a good choice. That said, it's possible, if not probable, that he'll tear it completely and require surgery in the future. Another knock against him is that this is his first season eclipsing 100 innings pitched, meaning he still has to prove he can stay healthy and build up his innings.

The last, and not least, knock against him is that being part of a loaded Braves pitching stable makes his future role uncertain. In most organizations he'd be a slam dunk to continue development as a starter, but the Braves have a number of young pitchers both in their major league rotation and knocking on the door. They may use him as a high-leverage late innings reliever to keep him healthy, and not test his small frame's limits. Those who trust his front-line starter three-pitch mix of a plus velocity fastball, curveball and change-up should move him up the list.

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 3:23am (13) Comments

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

THT’s top 100 prospects, part 3

51: Brad Peacock/SP/Washington Nationals/2-2-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: Breakout 2011 and two years of 8+ K/9.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: He was one of John Sickels' breakout prospects coming into the year, and boy, oh boy, was he right. Peacock put together a monster season and now is on top-50 prospect lists left and right. His fastball is a plus pitch and sometimes is described as a plus-plus pitch. He also throws a curveball that some, such as Baseball America, describe as a knuckle curve. It is a swing-and-miss pitch that is a nice pairing with his fastball.

What will determine how successful he can be in the big leagues is how good his change-up becomes. Some still question its ability to develop into an average third offering and think Peacock will end up in the bullpen. I'm willing to gamble it becomes good enough to work through lineups multiple times and pile up strikeouts.

52: Danny Hultzen/SP/Seattle Mariners/11-28-89/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: League average strikeout rate with great control.
Current Level: Unassigned 2011 draftee
Scouting Notes: Most scouting reports describe him as having a No. 2 starter's ceiling. While that's solid, some of the other pichers drafted around him are viewed as having more upside. That said, Hultzen is considered polished and has a seemingly higher floor than those same higher upside starters. He's a southpaw who throws a fastball in the 92-94 mph range, but can touch 96. He also throws a slider that Kevin Goldstein calls a plus pitch, Baseball America calls an average pitch that shows plus potential, John Sickels refers to as improved, and Lincoln Hamilton of Project Prospect says has shown plus break but occasionally flattens out. All those scouting gurus rave about his change-up and call it a plus pitch, with most declaring it his best offering.

His command and control are above average, which along with three quality offerings helps support his high floor. His fantasy value is boosted with Safeco being his home ballpark.

53: Jacob Marisnick/OF/Toronto Blue Jays/3-30-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Projected to offer a bit of power, speed and some average. No one standout fantasy asset, but a contributor in all facets of the fantasy game.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: Scouting reports loved Marisnick's tools coming into the season, but they didn't translate onto the field in 2010. This season saw him turn the corner and put them into good use on the field, and turn many of his detractors into believers. All his tools project to be average or better. If he develops a bit more home run power, he can leapfrog most of the outfielders in front of him.

54: Bryce Brentz/OF/Boston Red Sox/12-30-88/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Solid pop, low, but rosterable batting average.
Current Level: Hi-A
Scouting Notes: His power is his best fantasy asset. Not everyone is sold that it will play as he moves up the ladder, but he took a huge step forward after a poor debut, so he gets the nod over other outfield prospects with plus power potential in the future, but lesser results now. He's going to have to cut back on the strikeouts, or advanced pitchers will pick him apart.

55: Randall Delgado/SP/Atlanta Braves/2-9-90/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: 2010 only year with MLE ERA under 6 (4.21)
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: The Braves have a glut of young talented pitchers, but not everyone views Delgado as being in the same class as the rest. He throws a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s, a plus curveball and a developing change-up that is described as average with plus potential.

His command is lacking, and is his biggest problem at this point in his young career. His strikeout rates have been solid, but have slipped a bit at each level he's moved up (with the exception being 21.2 innings in Triple-A this year). His walk rate has fluctuated between passable in the mid-3s BB/9, to mildly concerning in the lower-to-mid-4s BB/9.

There is no reason to rush the youngster with all of the rotation under contract (or team control) next season, and other more polished arms like Teheran, Mike Minor and Vizcaino to turn to, so expect to see Delgado spending a significant chunk of next year in Triple-A (barring a trade).

56: Zack Wheeler/SP/New York Mets/5-30-90/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Numbers not as good as the scouting reports and he needs to lower his walk rate.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: The Mets strengthened their farm system at the trade deadline by shipping Carlos Beltran to the Giants in return for Wheeler. Since joining the Mets system his walk rate has taken a giant step forward, dropping from 4.81 BB/9 to 1.67 BB/9. His strikeout rate has remained elite, and is supported by plus fastball and developing curveball and change-up. Both of his secondary offerings lag behind his fastball, and while neither is a plus pitch at this moment, they both have flashed that type of potential.

Adam Foster of Project Prospect offered a scouting report in May on Wheeler, and while the write-up is solid, the most interesting part is the embedded video of each of his pitches. He still has to tackle the upper minors, but his first two seasons have gone well and shown promise.

57: Matt Harvey/SP/New York Mets/3-27-89/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Yet to have a major league quality season; 2011 is best with 4.2 BB/9, 8.4 K/9.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Harvey follows Wheeler on this list, but it is debatable which is the better prospect. That's good news for the Mets assuming both reach their ceiling. Harvey throws a plus fastball in the low-to-mid-90s and can touch the 95-97 mph range. He also throws a hard slider, a plus curveball that could develop into a plus-plus pitch according to Goldstein, and a developing change-up. The development of his change-up is going to determine whether he just lives up to his high floor, or reaches his front-of-the-rotation ceiling.

58: Archie Bradley/SP/Arizona Diamondbacks/8-10-92/ETA: 2016
Forecast Notes: Has thrown only two innings in Rookie Level ball, so he doesn't have a forecast yet.
Current Level: Rookie
Scouting Notes: He throws a fastball that has hit 101 mph. If that's not enough to get the juices flowing, he also throws a hammer curveball that's praised by all outlets. He also throws a change-up that gets mixed reviews. His control lacks consistency, so expect him to be brought along slowly by the Diamondbacks. His ceiling is extremely high, high enough that Sickels suggests he may have been a steal at pick seven.

59: Mike Montgomery/SP/Kansas City Royals/7-1-89/ETA: 2012
Forecast Notes: Poor 2011 after good 2009-10 with too many walks (3.9, 3.6, 5.2 BB/9).
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes: He's still left-handed, and he still has electric stuff. The results have been lackluster, though, as his control is less than I'd like to see, and his strikeout rate isn't high enough to offset it. He's just 22, so he has time to iron out his issues. The scouting industry remains high on him, but Sickels hints he may downgrade him from a B+ grade to a B and Keith Law suggesting a potential drop of 30- plus spots on his list. He doesn't look like a slam dunk to reach his high ceiling, but if he puts it together this ranking will look foolishly low.

60: Tyrell Jenkins/SP/St. Louis Cardinals/7-20-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast Notes: Too small a sample for useful MLE forecast.
Current Level: Rookie
Scouting Notes: He didn't make either Baseball America's or Kevin Goldstein's Midseason Top-50 Prospect lists, but he did crack Keith Law's. He was drafted in last year's supplemental first round out of high school. He played multiple sports in high school, and is described as a tremendous athlete. Because he didn't play baseball in high school, he's a bit of a project, but one with the upside of three plus pitches (fastball, change-up and curve). He already throws hard, and throws strikes. His strikeout-to-walk rate is better than four-to-one. He gives up a lot of hits, which suggests he'll need to work on throwing more quality strikes. He's a high risk/high reward type prospect.

61: Billy Hamilton/SS/Cincinnati Reds/9-9-90/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Great steals, good glove, no bat, lots of strikeouts.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks has described his speed as a 90 on the 20-to-80 scale—quite high praise. He's raw and developing, and he'll need to continue to improve making contact, but his plus-plus speed tool and insane stolen base upside at shortstop make him worth a gamble. He's unlikely to bring any power, but young Jose Reyes-type steal numbers would look quite nice if he's able to hit enough to reach the majors.

62: Javier Baez/SS/Chicago Cubs/12-1-91/ETA: 2015
Forecast Notes: Too small a sample as a 2011 draftee
Current Level: Short-season-A
Scouting Notes: Baez is a high offensive ceiling 2011 draftee who currently plays shortstop. Some think he'll need to move to third base, which is why he slots here instead of a dozen or more spots higher. Another knock against Baez is that his makeup has been questioned by a number of scouts. As far as positives, he has plus bat speed that should allow him to hit for power, but Steve Carter">Project Prospects' Steve Carter questions if the way he generates plus bat speed will allow him to reach his ceiling as a hitter. Whether he plays shortstop or third base, the potential for both a plus power and hitting makes him an exciting prospect.

63: Oswaldo Arcia/OF/Minnesota Twins/5-9-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Regressed in 2011 but projected for 25-30 homers with few walks.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: He's young with plus power projection and a solid average. He's a ways away, but has shown enough for Keith Law to rank him in the middle of his Midseason Top-50 Prospect List. He'll need to tighten his command of the strike zone to really flourish (9:53 walk-to-strikeout in 213 High-A at bats).

64: Michael Olt/3B/Texas Rangers/8-27-88/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Breakout 2011, but too many strikeouts and not enough pop to offset them.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: Olt suffered a broken collarbone which shortened a season that was off to a solid start. He projects to hit for power, but he'll need to cut back on his strikeout rate to hit for average. His defense is quite good at the position, but a move to the outfield may be necessitated by Adrian Beltre's long-term deal in Texas. If he moves to the outfield, he drops entirely off this list. Plus power at third base with the potential for a passable average is too much to pass up at this point on the list.

65: Nick Castellanos/3B/Detroit Tigers/3-4-92/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Peak .279/.332/.425.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: His bat gets good grades from most, and most scouting reports expect him to develop his power as he matures and eclipse 20 home runs annually. He has what some describe as a sweet swing with good bat speed that allowed him to hit over .300 in Single-A this year. He may have to sacrifice some average to generate power, but most would sign up for a .280 average if it comes with 20 plus home runs from their fantasy third baseman. Toss in his respectable 8 percent walk rate as a 19 year old in full season minor league baseball and the seeds of a middle-of-the-order hitter are in place to bloom in Detroit.

66: Robbie Erlin/SP/San Diego Padres/10-8-90/ETA: 2012
Forecast Notes: Great walk rate with above league average strikeout rate.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Erlin is a left-handed pitcher whose fastball operates in the upper-80s to low-90s. He throws an above- average curveball and change-up, but neither pitch is described as being exceptional. Most scouting reports peg his ceiling as a solid No. 3 starter.

How is a pitcher with this description ranked among the top prospects in baseball? It's a perfect storm of positives for Erlin that land him here. Every scouting report I've read lauds his control and high pitching IQ, which he uses to sequence his pitches in ways that maximize their effectiveness. His results have been great in Double-A, where he's struck out more than eight times as many hitters as he's walked (92 strikeouts to 11 walks in 92.2 innings). The final factor is his new organization. He was dealt from the unfavorable home confines in Texas to San Diego, where he can now call PETCO home.

67: Jake Odorizzi/SP/Kansas City/3-27-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: His MLE walk and strikeout rates took a step forward while his ERA and WHIP took a step back.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Odorizzi's were tremendous in High-A, but took a huge step back against advanced competition in Double-A, where his strikeout rate plummeted from 11.83 K/9 to 7.08 K/9. His walk rate remained very good, below 3.0 BB/9, but his extreme flyball profile has the potential to be crippling to his fantasy value. Goldstein noted improvement this year at the midway mark, but Law suggested otherwise at the same point. Baseball America described his fastball as his lone plus pitch coming into the season. It has good, but not elite, velocity.

I haven't read any scouting reports discussing how he's using his fastball, but given his batted ball tendency and high strikeout rate in High-A that dipped in Double-A, I'm guessing he's throwing it up in the zone. That approach would leave less advanced hitters swinging through it and more talented competition catching up to it and punishing it. Perhaps the vibe I'm getting is unwarranted, but Odorizzi has a Chris Tillman feel to me. Most prospect rankings have him higher, but his present stuff and projection don't offer a high enough ceiling to ignore his struggles in Double-A.

68: Dellin Betances/SP/New York Yankees/3-23-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: Huge slip in walk rate from 2010 to 2011. His poor walk rate this year falls in line with his career, with 2010 looking like the outlier.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: Betances offers the combination of electric stuff and a big physical build that allows scouts to dream of a workhorse fronting a major league rotation. Unfortunately, Betances has enough warts on his game that a shift to the bullpen may be necessary. One obstacle is his lack of a consistent change-up to use with his plus fastball and plus-plus curveball. (He also throws a slider which he'll use to strike hitters out.)

The other, larger, obstacle for Betances is his lack of control. In short, he walks too many hitters. One possible reason is his large frame. Often times, bigger pitchers struggle to repeat their delivery. Betances isn't overly athletic, further aiding the difficulties of repeating a delivery. Lst year showed what Betances is capable of when he can keep the walks in line, and his relatively high floor as a high leverage reliever, and potential heir to Mariano Rivera's closing job, makes this a fair rating.

69: A.J. Cole/SP/Washington Nationals/1-5-92/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Awesome strikeout rate and walk rate in the low minors this year project to translate to the majors by about 2016.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: Cole throws a plus fastball with good velocity and projection for even more as he matures. His curveball and change-up lag behind the heater, but the curveball has plus potential and his change-up is in the development stages. His control is very impressive for a tall (6-foot-4) 19-year-old who pitched in full season ball. That solid control hasn't come at the expense of strikeouts— his 10.92 K/9 is superb. He was a 2010 draft selection out of high school, but may move fast for a prep pitcher; he took well to Single-A this year. Even if he spends a full season in both Double-A and Triple-A, he'd reach the majors as a 22-year-old.

70: Jeurys Familia/SP/New York Mets/10-10-89/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: This year's 4.1 BB/9 career best. Peak projected ERA is 4.87.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Familia's money pitch is his premium fastball, which has plus-plus velocity in the mid-to-upper-90s. His command took a huge step forward this year without sacrificing a great deal in strikeouts. He also throws a power slider and is working on his change-up. It sounds as if he's made strides with both secondary offerings this year. He'll need to continue to develop both, or he'll be relegated to the bullpen. Even that wouldn't necessarily cripple his value if the Mets choose to groom him as a closer. For now, though, expect to see the Mets continue to develop him as a starter after a bounce-back 2011 campaign.

71: George Springer/OF/Houston Astros/9-19-89/ETA: 2015
Forecast Notes: Some home runs, some walks, lots of strikeouts.
Current Level: Short season-A
Scouting Notes: The words "upside," "tools" and "raw" are thrown around in just about every notable scouting report on Astros first-round pick George Springer. He has plus speed and plus power potential, but his swing mechanics have come into question and he isn't as developed as your typical high first-round college hitter. He's a high risk/high reward prospect, but because he's older than prep boom-or-bust prospects Bubba Starling and Josh Bell, he's finds himself rated lower.

72: Leonys Martin/OF/Texas Rangers/3-6-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: Peak .266/.320/.377.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: Martin is a Cuban defector the Rangers paid top dollar for in May. He flew through the system, and is expected to be the future in center field for the organization. His speed is above average, but not otherworldly. He is described by most as having gap power, but isn't a sure thing to develop into the type of hitter capable of hitting double-digit home runs.

His hitting skills get mixed reviews, ranging from plus to questionable. Such a wide variance, modest power potential, and above-average but not elite stolen base upside leave me a bit perplexed as to why he's well regarded in the fantasy prospect community. Is it a matter of folks not being able to distinguish between real life and fantasy value, or am I missing something? He doesn't strike out often, so maybe his hitting isn't quite as questionable as some reports make it out to be. That said, playing the deep position of outfield sets the bar relatively high to be an impact fantasy player.

73: Trevor May/SP/Philadelphia Phillies/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: MLE of 6.1 BB/9 in 2011 is career best, as is 10.5 K/9.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: May's stock is rising after he cut his walk rate from a ghastly 7.84 BB/9 last year to a palatable 4.05 BB/9. His strikeout rate is elite, as the Forecast MLE suggests. He repeated High-A as a 21-year-old this year, so he'll need to prove himself against Double-A hitters next year before moving up this list. He's a tall pitcher 6-foot-5 and has a body that is projectable to add on to. In addition to a fastball that is a plus pitch and can hit the mid-90s, he throws curveballs and change-ups plus potential. If he can develop his secondary stuff and refine his control, his ability to miss bats could put him on the fast track through the upper minors, making the mild age concerns due to repeating a level a moot point.

74: Zach Lee/SP/Los Angeles Dodgers/ETA: 2015
Forecast Notes: Underwhelming MLE on his pro debut.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: Lee was a two-sport prep superstar with a scholarship offer to play football for LSU. The Dodgers surprised most by selecting him last year and meeting his bonus requirement, spreading it over five years. His strikeout rate of 7.51 K/9 and walk rate of 2.64 BB/9 are impressive for a 19-year-old (he turned 20 on Sept. 13) debuting in Single-A, and even more impressive when realizing he didn't concentrate on baseball exclusively in high school. As you'd expect of a player recruited to play football at an elite college program, he's a great athlete and has a ton of projection. Scouting reports are better than his solid results.

75: Jarred Cosart/SP/Houston Astros/ETA: 2012
Forecast Notes: Strikeout rate and walk rate both took steps in the wrong direction, but had average MLEs in 2010 and better than average in 2009.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Cosart impressed on the big stage in his Futures Game performance where his stuff played up in a small dose. He throws a plus fastball and curveball and induces a ton of ground balls. To take the next step, he'll need to start missing bats. He's not striking out nearly enough batters to be fantasy relevant. Further hurting his ranking are concerns Keith Law voiced about his delivery across his body in his Midseason Top-50 Prospect list.

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 3:51am (21) Comments

Taking time to give thanks

On this final day of the 2011 fantasy baseball season, I first want to take the opportunity to thank our brilliant, devoted, and wonderfully engaging readers and social media friends and followers. I know that I, for one, am not always able to be as active in our ongoing dialogues as I wish to be, but know that your engagement is valued and appreciated.

And of course, best of luck to all of you whose pursuit of a 2011 championship has come down to the final day of the season. It is all any participant—"expert" or lay drafter—can ask to be in it to the end with a legitimate chance at glory. Make sure you pretreat any stainable items before giving yourself the Yoo-Hoo shower.

Also, please remember—there is no offseason at THT Fantasy. We'll be back at it with plenty of keeper talk, player evaluation, draft strategy, and league design advice throughout in preparation for next season. So, don't be a stranger!

Since I'm in a thankful mood today, I'd like to share an experience I had and decision I made that I hope can be an example to our readers—in spirit at least. As I've often stated here, and anybody who reads Michael Stein's "Fantasy Judgment" columns knows well, being the commissioner of your league is all too often a thankless job. Being commish confers no unique benefits or competitive advantages in a league, but it does position you as susceptible to the projection of angst from those having disappointing seasons and as the arbiter of disputes—a role, which by definition will upset some. Earlier this week, I did a nice deed for my commish, and while in no am I implying you should do something akin, sending some recognition the way of the commish, even a simple thanks for running this thing email, is a polite, sensitive, and classy gesture.

This season has not been one of my all-around most successful, but I did have a run of dominance in one league that would go down as either my best or second best season I've ever had in any league, of any format. This was in my roto-H2H hybrid league that I pioneered design-wise, but of which I did not act as commissioner. That league almost collapsed before it ever got off the ground. Being H2H based, it required an even number of teams. Just a few days before the draft, we saw one of our owners drop out, endangering the very existence of the league. Our commish scurried to find a replacement—to a medium stakes league with an experimental scoring format that also used a mix of traditional and non-traditional categories. He pulled a replacement out of his hat at the last possible moment. I went on to dominate this league mercilessly, taking the most weekly payouts, winning all but two regular season match-ups, and finishing more than 30 games ahead of the second place team—the commish's team. I am now matched up with him in the finals.

During the semis we were out together putting a few back and he offered me a proposition. We were both under the assumption that the tiebreaker this league would be one random category, so he asked me how I felt about how making an agreement that if we were to meet in the finals and tie, we’d split the money regardless of the arbitrary default criteria. We didn't exactly shake on it because we got drunk and forgot about it, but the seed was planted.

Coming into Tuesday, we were tied and the match-up was set up in a way that many of the categories weren't likely to be flipped, but pursuing the ones that were put more at risk. So, I was deciding whether to play for the draw or go for the win. At that point, I decided to look up the tiebreaker, knowing we hadn't actually made any agreement regarding a tie. I thought HR was going to be the deciding category, as that's what it had been in a few previous leagues. I was getting crushed in homers this week. But, to my surprise, Yahoo! had changed the default and the tiebreaker was head to head record during the season. This means that a tie would be a win for me. I'm sure the commish didn't know this when we originally talked about it—he would not try to pull a fantasy-related fast one on me, and since the tiebreaker was set as the default, I doubt he even paid attention to it when setting up the league.

So, we spoke again today about splitting the prize in the case of a tie. I was tempted to agree to this, despite firmly holding the tiebreaker. The one thing that gave me pause, though, was a worry about the way it would impact our incentives. The rules say that he is currently losing, and it benefits me if he plays that way. He's the one on the ropes now, and I do not want him to be able to play for a draw—I deserve that advantage, and the increased likelihood he goes belly up and loses outright (our pitching rate stats are both stellar. He'd have to pitch more to flip the one he needs, but is more likely to give up one he has if he tries). So, I told him today, simply, "play to win."

I have however, made the decision that if we do end up tied, after playing to win (well him playing to win, I may play for the draw now), then I will split the winnings from the finals with him.

This does seem a bit more generous than it actually is. Our league is built to capitalize on the excitement of H2H but minimize its randomness, so this series is only worth about 10 percent of the total point total (half was given to weekly roto winners and most of the rest to regular season champ and runner up).

One other reason I was tempted to be generous here is that the replacement he found had a year that would make him an honorary Lohan on the personal side of things. This owner stiffed our commish on dues. Normally I’d be furious, but this guy had some really bad luck, made some really bad decisions, and his team became inactive for the last weeks of the season because he checked into rehab. Yikes—tough situation.

So, after heroically saving the league, our commish was rewarded by inheriting a debt. Normally, I'm fairly stoic when commishes complain about deadbeats; collecting entry fees is part of the job, thus non-payments are dual failures. However, given the circumstances I've outlined here, and the fact that I've already won several times my entry fee, I figured why not throw the commish a bone, since nobody ever appreciates commishes properly.

The irony here is that our commish is kind of abrasive—perhaps no more of a pretentious know-it-all than I am, but perhaps a less tactful one—and I'm not sure he'd do the same for me. But, maybe that's what makes appreciation genuine. And, perhaps I'll just beat him outright and laugh as he strolls to the poor house anyway.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:10am (4) Comments

Thursday, September 29, 2011

THT’s top 100 prospects, part 4

76: Wily Peralta/SP/Milwaukee Brewers/ETA: 5-8-89/ETA: 2012
Forecast Notes: Career best 7.8 K/9 and near best BB/9. Forecast not overly promising.
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes: Peralta is a bit of an enigma. His strikeout and walk rates have been up and down throughout his minor league career, and his groundball rate has fluctuated as well. He throws three pitches with average to above-average grades, and he put it all together this season. His walk rate in Double-A could have been a smidge better (3.61 BB/9) but his strikeout rate was solid, and both have improved greatly in his promotion to Triple-A. Small sample warning applies, but his performance has been electric in the friendly hitting environment of the Pacific Coast League.

Scouting reports back up the statistical improvements, and Peralta's frame suggests he can develop into a workhorse. Most scouting reports mention his easy delivery, which is further reason to believe in him piling up innings at his peak maturity. He appears to be close to maxing out his potential, but the package looks useful in fantasy and he is knocking on the door of the bigs.

77: Kaleb Cowart/3B/Los Angeles Angels/6-2-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast Notes: Low average, little pop, poor walk to strikeout rate.
Current Level: Rookie Level
Scouting Notes: Cowart was a 2010 firs- round selection. He was a two-way prep star, with some teams preferring him as a pitcher. He spent the entire year as a fielder, and will be developed as a switch-hitting third baseman. Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus describes him as having plus-plus power potential. He needs to develop his hitting, namely from the right side, where he was much less successful than as a lefty. He got off to a good start as a full-time position player, and he has a high ceiling, so he could be a big mover on this list.

78: Will Middlebrooks/3B/Boston Red Sox/9-9-88/ETA: 2012
Forecast Notes: Breakout 2011. Peak .250/.300/.429 with some power.
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes: Projected to be more of a doubles hitter than a big bopper, but does have useful home run power potential. Middlebrooks has the defensive tools necessary to stay at the hot corner, which is big because his value won't translate well to other positions. His poor walk rate and high strikeout rate leave me questioning his batting average ceiling. He should be awarded the opportunity to further hone his strike zone command and hitting in Triple-A next year, and probably see a cup of coffee in September when rosters expand if he continues to play well. He doesn't have an elite ceiling, but as a third baseman succeeding in the upper minors, his floor is relatively high at a shallow offensive position.

79: Guillermo Pimentel/OF/Seattle Mariners/10-5-92/ETA: 2016
Forecast Notes: A few years from showing his power in the majors, embarrassingly low walk rate and lots of strikeouts.
Current Level: Rookie
Scouting Notes: Pimentel is a project, but one worth gambling on due to his 80 grade power potential. Raw power like that from a left-handed hitter is the stuff dreams are made of. His strike zone command is lacking, and he's extremely aggressive, leading some to question his future hitting. He did make modest gains in walk rate, and cut back on his strikeouts a bit this year but has a lot of work to do. He has yet to reach full season ball, so those investing in him will have to wait.

80: C.J. Cron/1B/Los Angeles Angels/1-5-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Power but few walks. Peak .270/.321/.481.
Current Level: Rookie
Scouting Notes: Cron was the first-round selection of the Angels out of Utah, where he clobbered the ball. As a college draftee, he's expected to fly through the system. He's described by some as having above-average power, by others as having massive power by others. He gets high grades for his pure hitting skills. He didn't walk a ton in college, and his walk rate in his Pioneer League exposure leaves something to be desired, but otherwise he offers the total hitting package you'd look for from a corner infielder.

He grades out terribly in the field, and the Angels already have Mark Trumbo, and a rehabbing Kendrys Morales, so it's possible he could end up at designated hitter at a young age much like Billy Butler.

81: Chad Bettis/SP/Colorado Rockies/4-26-89/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Projects as a bit of an innings-eater type with solid control but underwhelming strikeout totals.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: Bettis' fastball is his best pitch, and is above average, but it's the gains that he has reportedly made with his secondary offerings that are most promising. He was outstanding in High-A and looks to tackle Double-A next year. He induced more flyball outs than groundball outs, and works well down in the zone. He'll need to continue that trend if he hopes to succeed at Coors, and before that in the launching pad that is Colorado Springs.

Stellar performance paired with positive scouting reports allows Bettis, who wasn't highly touted coming into the season by most outlets (Sickels seemed most bullish giving him a "B" grade), to land on this list.

82: Daniel Norris/SP/Toronto Blue Jays/4-25-93/ETA: 2016
Forecast Notes: No projection as a 2011 high school draftee
Current Level: Unassigned
Scouting Notes: Like fellow second-round pick Josh Bell, Norris fell due to signability concerns. The Blue Jays took a chance, and ended up netting him for $2 million. He's a skinny southpaw who throws between 89-92 mph regularly and can touch 96. He also throws a change-up that has plus potential and is his curveball also has plus potential. As he fills out, he should be able to show premium velocity on his fastball more regularly. Tantalizing blend of stuff, and most scouting reports say he has a feel for pitching and isn't simply a thrower.

83: Jarrod Parker/SP/Arizona Diamondbacks/11-24-88/ETA: 2012
Forecast Notes: Projects to post ugly major league numbers with no positive fantasy contributions.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: John Sickels wrote an outstanding Prospect of the Day piece recently about Parker. In short, his stuff is still there, but he's still working to regain control after Tommy John surgery shelved him last season. He isn't throwing his slider as much, but it remains a plus offering. Before his injury he'd have ranked much higher. If he goes back to using the slider more frequently as a punch-out pitch and his strikeout rate climbs, he'll shoot up the list.

84: Yonder Alonso/OF/Cincinnati Reds/4-8-87/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: Modest power and average but no exceptional quality.
Current Level: Majors
Scouting Notes: Alonso is a finished product for the most part, and thus, his floor is about what you see. His home run rate in the majors won't last, as he is more of a high teens home run hitter than one pacing for 30 plus. His hitting is good enough that he may be capable of flirting with .300 annually. He's playing outfield now because he's blocked at first base by Joey Votto, but make no mistake about it, he's a first baseman in the outfield.

If he isn't traded in the offseason to a team in need of a first baseman, he'll find himself battling Chris Heisey for playing time in Cincinnati and will almost certainly be lifted regularly for a defensive replacement late in games he does start. If he is dealt, his value will take a huge hit as soon as he sheds outfield eligibility.

Potentially further hurting his future value would be a change in home ballparks. Few parks enhance home run hitting as much as Great American Ballpark, so any move likely will hurt his already modest power potential. Think Gaby Sanchez type value with a touch more average. In the outfield, that gets him on this list. As a first baseman, he'd just miss.

85: Francisco Lindor/SS/Cleveland Indians/11-14-93/ETA: 2016
Forecast Notes: No projection as a 2011 high school draftee
Current Level: Unassigned
Scouting Notes: Lindor is a pure shortstop who is a wizard with the glove and won't require a position change. His defense gets better grades than his offense, but he's expected to hit for average. His power potential gets mixed reviews that range from gap at best to better than that. His speed isn't a plus, but it is above average and should allow him to steal some bases. The offensive ceiling isn't overwhelming, but a shortstop capable of hitting for a bit of pop, stealing a pinch of bases and hitting for average plays well in fantasy formats.

86: Addison Reed/RP/Chicago White Sox/12-27-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: Gaudy strikeout rate as a top-flight reliever.
Current Level: Majors
Scouting Notes: Reed was an equal opportunist in embarrassing hitters at four minor league stops before reaching the majors (where he hasn't stopped striking batters out). He throws a plus-plus fastball and a plus-plus slider. He also throws a change-up, but it isn't as consistent as his other two pitches. He started and closed games at San Diego State, but it appears the White Sox are content with him dominating in a late-inning role. Sergio Santos did a fantastic job closing games for the White Sox, so Reed may not pick up saves anytime soon, but he should still be a fantasy asset.

87: Jesse Biddle/SP/Philadelphia Phillies/10-22-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Ugly walk rates lead to a high WHIP projection and bloated ERAs.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: Biddle got off to a rough start, but has been much after April. He's a big southpaw with plus, but inconsistent, velocity on his fastball. He also throws a developing change-up and curveball that flash swing and miss potential. The biggest hurdle for him to reach his ceiling is commanding his fastball. That's certainly not a small hurdle. He'll also have to continue to develop his secondary offerings, but the ceiling is high if everything comes together, and at just 19, he has plenty of time to hone his craft.

88: Taylor Guerrieri/SP/Tampa Bay Rays/12-1-92/ETA: 2016
Forecast Notes: No projection as a 2011 high school draftee
Current Level: Unassigned
Scouting Notes: Few scouting reports questioned his stuff coming into this year's draft, but he slid a bit as there are concerns about his makeup. Guerrieri throws a four-pitch mix that includes a fastball that sits in the 93-96 range and maxes out at 98, a plus curveball, a change-up and a cutter. He hasn't used the change-up or cutter often in games, and both lag behind his fastball and curveball but offer him further options to retire hitters as he develops them. As long as his makeup issues don't get in the way, there is a lot to get excited about.

89: Tommy Joseph/C/San Francisco Giants/7-16-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Mid-20s home run pop by 2014.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: Joseph is a work in progress behind the plate, but one who by most accounts has made strides this year.

His standout tool is his power, which showed well in games already as he played as a 19-year-old most of the season. His walk rate is low, but being that it's often referred to as an "old man skill," there is reason for optimism that he'll improve it in time. His strikeout rate was a bit high last year, but he made huge strides this season even while stepping up a level. He finished the season on a high note, hitting 16 of his 22 home runs post All-Star break, and seeing an increase in his average from .240 to .301. If he fully develops, his power will play in fantasy from any position, but would be much more tantalizing from his current position.

90: Joe Panik/SS/San Francisco/10-30-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Jack of all trades, master of none. Modest contributions across the board, which play well from the shortstop position.
Current Level: Low-A
Scouting Notes: Most observers viewed the Giants' selection of Panik as a reach, and a selection based on signability. Not everyone is sold that he'll stick at shortstop due to his lack of top-end athleticism, but most say he has a chance to stick there. Most scouting reports describe him as fundamentally sound and like his bat.

His hitting is a plus, but it's also his only plus tool. He is a disciplined hitter who should draw his share of walks. John Sickels had the most favorable things to say about Panik and expects him to turn out better than some players picked before him. As a polished college draftee who ripped the cover off the ball in Low-A, expect him to advance rapidly through the Giants system.

91: Chad James/SP/Florida Marlins/1-23-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Ugly walk rate and nothing that resembles a useful fantasy season.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: James' win-loss record may have been ugly, but in this day and age most baseball observers realize wins are a poor way of judging a pitcher's performance. Not all was rosy, though, even after dismissing his record as being unlucky. His walk rate improved from 2010 to 2011, but his strikeout rate took a step back with the improvement of his control.

Still, as a southpaw with plus velocity (for a left-handed pitcher) on his fastball that sits in the low 90s, and a change-up that's developing as a put-away pitch, there is promise for strikeouts in the future. He also throws a curveball and slider. Coming into the season, Baseball America described one breaking ball that had slider velocity and curveball break, and considered it a plus pitch. Newer reports from in-season discuss two distinct pitches, but neither is discussed as glowingly as his change-up. He's a work in progress, but one that is making strides.

92: Casey Kelly/SP/San Diego Padres/10-4-89/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Two-to-one strikeout-to-walk rate, but that's a product of a decent walk rate, and an underwhelming strikeout rate.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Kelly's star is rapidly losing its luster. He's not missing many bats, and there is a possibility he develops into nothing more than an innings eater who pounds the strike zone. Most scouting reports still like the stuff, and love his pitching acumen, but the song remains the same with all; strike out more batters or fail to reach the lofty ceiling previously projected.

93: Josh Sale/OF/Tampa Bay Rays/7-5-91/ETA: 2016
Forecast Notes: Train wreck projections that include the Triple Crown of yuck: low average, little power and almost no stolen bases.
Current Level: Rookie
Scouting Notes: The numbers are ugly in Sale's pro debut, but he was drafted out of high school and burying him after a tough start would be premature. He was considered the top prep hitter in last year's draft and has hit and power tools that grade out as potential plus assets in the future. He'll need to start turning those tools into production at some point, but for now, one positive is that he showed the ability to walk at a reasonable clip and didn't flail helplessly: He struck out in less than 20 percent of his at-bats.

94: Yorman Rodriguez/OF/Cincinnati Reds/8-15-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast Notes: Peak .250/.292/.400.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: Rodriguez's stats in his first year of full season ball are a bit disappointing, but he is toolsy and raw so it was to be expected. His walk rate went up as he moved up from Rookie Level ball, which is a positive to glean from a free swinger. The tools haven't disappeared: He's a plus hitter with plus power and above-average speed. All his tools need to be refined, but considering the Reds spent $2.5 million on him, it's likely they'll do everything in their power to get the most out of him. He may still flame out, but he's likely a cheap gamble with immense upside in dynasty leagues.

95: Anthony Ranaudo/SP/Boston Red Sox/9-9-89/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Peak 3.9 BB/9 and 7,2 K/9 but an ERA above five.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: Scouting reports are mixed on Ranaudo. Some see a player with a high floor but a less than elite ceiling, and others see a big pitcher with a good delivery that doesn't generate much excitement for them at all. He was lights out in Single-A, but was a disappointment in High-A. His fastball velocity draws mixed reports, ranging from average to plus, and he has a curveball and a change-up. There are a lot of questions here, but there are enough reports that suggest he can be very good that he warrants a spot at the back of this list.

96: Zack Cox/3B/St. Louis Cardinals/5-9-89/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Peak .265/.314/.392.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Cox hit for average this year, and was considered a pure hitter coming out of last year's draft. That's essentially where the positives end. Jim Callis likes him to stick at third base and succeed, but most other reports question his ability to stay there. Even optimistic scouting reports expect him to develop only average power. I nearly didn't rank him, but if his hitting remains a plus, his power turns out to be average, and he sticks at third, that would play in fantasy.

97: Tim Beckham/SS/Tampa Bay Rays/1-27-90/ETA: 2012
Forecast Notes: Batting average peaks at .251 in the next six years.
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes: Just to be on this list is a huge accomplishment for Beckham, who had done little before this year to justify the Rays using the top pick on him in the 2008 draft. He still doesn't possess superstar potential, but scouting reports no longer suggest it is imminent that he'll move from shortstop. His defense is much improved, and he put together the best hitting season of his young career.

He reached Triple-A at the age of 21, and has potential to hit double-digit home runs, steal double-digit bases and not embarrass himself in the batting average category. The Rays promoted him aggressively this year, which may be because they believed he was ready for it, but may also be because Hak-Ju Lee forced their hand a bit. Regardless, there is a window that he can be a useful fantasy player at shortstop position for the Rays.

Whether he sticks at the position is probably going to be determined by whether the Rays use him as a trade chip when Lee is ready. Lee is the far superior defender, so if both are on the parent club, it is Beckham who will need to find a new defensive home.

98: John Lamb/SP/Kansas City Royals/7-10-90/ETA: 2015
Forecast Notes: Modest strikeout rates with okay, but less than sparkling, walk rates.
Current Level: Double-A (Disabled List)
Scouting Notes: Lamb blew out his elbow early in the season and required Tommy John surgery in June. As a lefty with the potential for three plus pitches—fastball, curveball and change-up—who threw with plus velocity before the injury and reached Double-A as a 20-year-old, he is worth gambling on. Everyone's recovery timetable is different, so keep tabs on his progress.

99: Alex Meyer/SP/Washington Nationals/1-3-90/ETA: 2015
Forecast Notes: Ugly walk rates with a poor strikeout rate that won't offset the free passes.
Current Level: Unassigned
Scouting Notes: Meyer has a live arm with plus to plus-plus velocity on his fastball. He's a large human being who stands 6-foot-9. Unfortunately, being tall has its downsides, one of which Meyer feels in trying to repeat his delivery. That means his control suffers at times. He made huge strides last year, cutting back on the walks significantly. He throws a slider that flashes plus-plus potential and even threw a change-up last year that shows promise. Guys with this type of repertoire are a worthwhile gamble—even if his command is never better than average to slightly below average, he can offset it by overpowering batters.

100: Taylor Jungmann/SP/Milwaukee Brewers/12-18-89/ETA: 2015
Forecast Notes: Solid ERA and WHIP contributions but lackluster strikeout rates.
Current Level: Unassigned
Scouting Notes: Jungmann's ceiling is lower than a lot of the 2011 draftees. He should reach the big leagues quickly, but his present arsenal includes just a low-to-mid 90s fastball, usable slider that isn't described as a plus pitch, and a change-up that is a work in progress. His ERA was absolutely lights out at the University of Texas this season, and he should have no problem gobbling up innings. He's described as a pitcher with a feel for the craft, but his lack of elite level strikeout production in college doesn't bode well for future major league production.

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 3:35am (15) Comments

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Friday, September 16, 2011

AL Waiver Wire: Week 24