THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Dave Shovein at 12:49am (9) Comments

Staff rankings: Starting pitchers, part one

Phew. Position players are taken care of. What's next? Logically, starting pitchers, so below, we present the top 35 (more to come tomorrow).

The following writers have ranked their top 70: Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett, Brad Johnson and yours truly. We used FantasyPros.com to create our composite rankings, and if you follow the link provided in our rankings, you can see how ours compared with a slew of other experts'. Assume a 12-team, mixed league with standard 5x5 settings. Click on the links with our names to get to our Twitter accounts, where we'll happily answer your baseball and fantasy questions year-round.

2012 Starting Pitchers Rankings
Player Name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Roy Halladay	2	3	1	1	1	view
Clayton Kershaw	1	2	2	2	2	view
Justin Verlander	3	1	7	3	3	view
Cliff Lee	4	4	3	4	4	view
Tim Lincecum	6	5	5	7	5	view
CC Sabathia	10	7	6	5	6	view
Felix Hernandez	7	6	8	8	7	view
Cole Hamels	8	9	9	6	8	view
Jered Weaver	5	8	14	11	9	view
Zack Greinke	15	12	4	9	10	view
David Price	13	10	12	10	11	view
Dan Haren	9	11	17	14	12	view
Madison Bumgarner	14	18	11	13	13	view
Jon Lester	16	13	15	12	14	view
Stephen Strasburg	12	17	13	18	15	view
Matt Cain	11	14	26	15	16	view
Yovani Gallardo	24	16	10	22	17	view
Matt Moore	18	21	16	17	18	view
Adam Wainwright	19	15	23	20	19	view
James Shields	23	19	20	16	20	view
Ian Kennedy	17	25	25	21	21	view
C.J. Wilson	20	23	22	26	22	view
Yu Darvish	21	24	30	19	23	view
Mat Latos	27	28	18	28	24	view
Michael Pineda	25	27	19	30	25	view
Josh Johnson	32	20	28	23	26	view
Daniel Hudson	22	26	34	27	27	view
Brandon Beachy	28	29	21	34	28	view
Tommy Hanson	26	33	29	31	29	view
Gio Gonzalez	34	30	31	25	30	view
Matt Garza	29	35	24	33	31	view
Josh Beckett	30	32	27	32	32	view
Jordan Zimmermann	35	31	33	24	33	view
Cory Luebke	31	22	39	47	34	view
Anibal Sanchez	33	42	35	29	35	view

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Tomorrow... Starting pitchers, part two

Posted by Nick Fleder at 2:07am (44) Comments

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Staff rankings: Starting pitchers, part two

We promised more starting pitchers, and below we follow through with our rankings of starting pitchers, 35-70. The following writers have ranked their top 70: Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett, Brad Johnson, and yours truly.

We used FantasyPros.com to create our composite rankings, and if you follow the link provided in our rankings, you can see how ours compared with a slew of other experts'. I speak for at least Josh Shepardson and myself when I say that we will continue to update our rankings on FantasyPros and Twitter, perhaps, throughout Spring Training and the coming month (and change). Keep on the lookout for updates, and, as always, assume a 12-team, mixed league with standard 5x5 settings. Click on the links with our names to get to our Twitter accounts, where we'll happily answer your baseball and fantasy questions year-round.

2012 Starting Pitchers Rankings
Player Name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Ricky Romero	39	34	40	35	36	view
Chris Carpenter	38	37	38	36	37	view
Brandon Morrow	40	39	36	37	38	view
Ubaldo Jimenez	42	40	32	41	39	view
Max Scherzer	36	41	37	42	40	view
Shaun Marcum	37	38	49	38	41	view
Jaime Garcia	41	54	41	39	42	view
Jeremy Hellickson	45	45	43	40	43	view
Johnny Cueto	44	36	55	54	44	view
Tim Hudson	43	47	47	55	45	view
Hiroki Kuroda	49	43	48	48	46	view
Jhoulys Chacin	50	44	59	45	47	view
Derek Holland	48	58	42	51	48	view
Wandy Rodriguez	52	48	51	43	49	view
Clay Buchholz	59	61	46	46	50	view
Bud Norris	68	77	52	44	51	view
Luke Hochevar	54	73	44	–	52	view
Chad Billingsley	63	81	45	64	53	view
Ted Lilly	46	66	–	67	54	view
John Danks	56	46	64	–	55	view
Ervin Santana	47	63	54	50	56	view
Ryan Dempster	–	85	63	49	57	view
Brandon McCarthy	51	49	53	57	58	view
Erik Bedard	66	75	50	59	59	view
Colby Lewis	62	50	61	65	60	view
Roy Oswalt	57	51	57	52	61	view
Vance Worley	70	52	–	–	62	view
Jair Jurrjens	61	53	–	61	63	view
Doug Fister	53	55	60	–	64	view
Edwin Jackson	60	59	–	53	65	view
Scott Baker	55	57	68	58	66	view
Mike Minor	67	72	56	60	67	view
Justin Masterson	58	60	69	56	68	view
Trevor Cahill	64	56	67	62	69	view
Johan Santana	72	67	58	70	70	view

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Tomorrow... Relievers

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:09am (28) Comments

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Staff rankings: Relief pitchers

The staff rankings by position end with our top 35 relief pitchers for the 2012 season. Don't fret, though! A top 200 will come soon (hint, starting tomorrow). The following writers have ranked their top 35 relievers: Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett, Brad Johnson, and yours truly.

We used FantasyPros.com to create our composite rankings, and if you follow the link provided in our rankings, you can see how ours compared with a slew of other experts'. Assume a 12-team, mixed league with standard 5x5 settings.

Click on the links with our names to get to our Twitter accounts, where we'll happily answer your baseball and fantasy questions year-round.

2012 Relief Pitchers Rankings
Player Name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Craig Kimbrel	2	3	1	2	1	view
John Axford	3	5	3	5	2	view
Jonathan Papelbon	5	8	2	3	3	view
Mariano Rivera	4	6	4	4	4	view
Brian Wilson	8	7	9	6	5	view
Matt Moore	1	1	–	1	6	view
Drew Storen	10	9	5	11	7	view
Heath Bell	13	4	13	10	8	view
Joel Hanrahan	9	18	7	7	9	view
Ryan Madson	11	12	11	8	10	view
J.J. Putz	6	16	8	15	11	view
Cory Luebke	7	2	23	20	12	view
Jose Valverde	12	11	15	18	13	view
Andrew Bailey	17	13	14	14	14	view
Kenley Jansen	16	19	6	19	15	view
Rafael Betancourt	15	17	20	9	16	view
Sergio Santos	14	26	10	12	17	view
Joakim Soria	19	21	12	23	18	view
Jason Motte	18	22	18	17	19	view
Huston Street	21	24	16	16	20	view
Carlos Marmol	20	14	21	24	21	view
Chris Sale	24	15	24	22	22	view
Jordan Walden	26	25	22	13	23	view
Joe Nathan	22	20	19	35	24	view
Neftali Feliz	28	10	26	36	25	view
Brandon League	27	23	25	21	26	view
Kyle Farnsworth	23	27	17	37	27	view
Frank Francisco	25	32	28	–	28	view
Matt Thornton	33	38	27	26	29	view
Addison Reed	35	43	29	25	30	view
Jim Johnson	37	28	32	27	31	view
Jonny Venters	30	41	–	28	32	view
Matt Capps	29	31	30	–	33	view
David Robertson	36	–	–	29	34	view
Daniel Bard	–	29	–	34	35	view

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Tomorrow... Top 200

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:15am (24) Comments

Friday, February 24, 2012

Staff rankings: Top 1-100

The following writers have ranked their top 200: Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett, Brad Johnson, and yours truly.

We used FantasyPros.com to create our composite rankings, and if you follow the link provided in our rankings, you can see how ours compared with a slew of other experts'. I speak for at least Josh Shepardson and me when I say that we will continue to update our rankings on FantasyPros and Twitter, perhaps, throughout spring training and the coming month (and change).

Keep on the lookout for updates, and, as always, assume a 12-team, mixed league with standard 5x5 settings. Click on the links with our names to get to our Twitter accounts, where we'll happily answer your baseball and fantasy questions year-round. Our apologies for having to split up the top 200 into two articles.

2012 Overall Rankings
Player Name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Miguel Cabrera	1	1	1	1	1	view
Albert Pujols	4	2	2	2	2	view
Jose Bautista	3	6	3	3	3	view
Matt Kemp	2	3	4	7	4	view
Joey Votto	7	4	6	5	5	view
Troy Tulowitzki	9	5	5	4	6	view
Jacoby Ellsbury	6	10	11	8	7	view
Evan Longoria	14	8	7	11	8	view
Robinson Cano	8	11	13	10	9	view
Justin Upton	10	9	10	15	10	view
Adrian Gonzalez	15	13	9	9	11	view
Prince Fielder	13	14	8	12	12	view
Carlos Gonzalez	11	7	17	17	13	view
Dustin Pedroia	18	17	12	13	14	view
Ian Kinsler	12	19	15	19	15	view
Curtis Granderson	21	18	16	16	16	view
Clayton Kershaw	17	15	22	22	17	view
Mike Stanton	16	24	23	14	18	view
Roy Halladay	19	16	21	21	19	view
Hanley Ramirez	24	20	14	20	20	view
Justin Verlander	20	12	38	23	21	view
Mark Teixeira	26	22	20	26	22	view
Cliff Lee	22	21	25	27	23	view
Andrew McCutchen	23	23	24	25	24	view
Ryan Braun	5	45	45	6	25	view
Adrian Beltre	29	28	18	29	26	view
Jose Reyes	45	25	19	18	27	view
Tim Lincecum	27	27	26	40	28	view
David Wright	30	26	33	38	29	view
Mike Napoli	34	37	30	35	30	view
CC Sabathia	37	31	37	34	31	view
Josh Hamilton	46	39	31	24	32	view
Felix Hernandez	28	29	39	44	33	view
Ryan Zimmerman	41	41	32	28	34	view
Matt Holliday	38	44	35	30	35	view
Cole Hamels	31	35	46	36	36	view
Brett Lawrie	35	48	27	46	37	view
Nelson Cruz	32	38	44	43	38	view
Carlos Santana	40	49	29	45	39	view
Desmond Jennings	33	65	28	41	40	view
Hunter Pence	39	33	68	31	41	view
Jered Weaver	25	32	55	60	42	view
Starlin Castro	44	52	40	39	43	view
Pablo Sandoval	49	61	34	32	44	view
Dan Uggla	60	30	42	56	45	view
Zack Greinke	58	46	36	49	46	view
Paul Konerko	54	36	58	42	47	view
Eric Hosmer	48	34	53	58	48	view
David Price	50	42	51	53	49	view
Ben Zobrist	51	57	41	48	50	view
Jay Bruce	68	40	43	51	51	view
Brandon Phillips	55	58	64	33	52	view
Alex Rodriguez	59	59	57	37	53	view
Dan Haren	36	43	79	63	54	view
Jon Lester	64	47	56	61	55	view
Brian McCann	56	55	66	54	56	view
Michael Young	52	51	84	50	57	view
Madison Bumgarner	53	78	47	62	58	view
Stephen Strasburg	47	74	52	68	59	view
Kevin Youkilis	72	60	60	52	60	view
Asdrubal Cabrera	43	66	62	74	61	view
Elvis Andrus	61	53	82	55	62	view
Michael Morse	69	56	70	59	63	view
Rickie Weeks	70	62	65	57	64	view
Matt Cain	42	50	100	65	65	view
Shane Victorino	57	68	74	64	66	view
Alex Gordon	75	63	50	76	67	view
B.J. Upton	62	76	49	79	68	view
Yovani Gallardo	87	73	48	78	69	view
Michael Bourn	66	54	91	75	70	view
Lance Berkman	74	79	69	70	71	view
Craig Kimbrel	65	87	61	82	72	view
Matt Moore	73	83	77	67	73	view
Jimmy Rollins	79	70	63	93	74	view
Adam Wainwright	77	71	95	71	75	view
James Shields	85	80	88	66	76	view
Matt Wieters	88	94	54	84	77	view
Buster Posey	95	69	71	86	78	view
Ian Kennedy	67	89	99	72	79	view
Yu Darvish	80	86	104	69	80	view
Corey Hart	81	77	73	112	81	view
Jason Heyward	76	92	89	90	82	view
Joe Mauer	91	64	107	88	83	view
C.J. Wilson	78	85	94	97	84	view
Adam Jones	63	81	113	98	85	view
Carl Crawford	86	93	85	94	86	view
Aramis Ramirez	71	91	59	143	87	view
Howard Kendrick	94	75	124	73	88	view
Shin-Soo Choo	83	121	75	89	89	view
Jason Kipnis	98	101	86	83	90	view
Chase Utley	140	67	115	47	91	view
John Axford	84	100	78	118	92	view
Jesus Montero	101	112	72	96	93	view
Josh Johnson	117	82	102	80	94	view
Jonathan Papelbon	92	113	76	106	95	view
Michael Pineda	97	98	87	105	96	view
Mat Latos	104	103	80	103	97	view
Drew Stubbs	99	99	67	126	98	view
Brett Gardner	90	88	126	99	99	view
Mariano Rivera	89	110	96	109	100	view

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 2:01am (17) Comments

Staff rankings: Top 100-200

See part one, published earlier today, for 100-200.

2012 Overall Rankings
Player Name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Daniel Hudson	82	97	130	102	101	view
Billy Butler	110	107	125	77	102	view
Alexei Ramirez	118	108	105	92	103	view
Freddie Freeman	108	72	121	125	104	view
Brandon Beachy	106	104	93	123	105	view
David Ortiz	100	115	81	132	106	view
Tommy Hanson	102	120	103	108	107	view
Miguel Montero	115	116	108	95	108	view
Carlos Beltran	127	90	111	107	109	view
Gio Gonzalez	124	106	119	91	110	view
Matt Garza	107	124	98	117	111	view
Josh Beckett	114	119	101	115	112	view
Jordan Zimmermann	126	118	129	81	113	view
Ryan Howard	112	96	136	114	114	view
Andre Ethier	119	117	123	100	115	view
Logan Morrison	103	135	122	101	116	view
Derek Jeter	120	151	83	110	117	view
Ike Davis	121	142	120	85	118	view
Michael Cuddyer	93	170	92	113	119	view
Dee Gordon	109	111	134	129	120	view
Brian Wilson	122	109	133	121	121	view
Drew Storen	128	125	97	137	122	view
Chris B. Young	111	147	110	119	123	view
Jayson Werth	136	105	137	111	124	view
Dustin Ackley	139	114	114	124	125	view
Cameron Maybin	96	122	112	175	126	view
Nick Markakis	143	95	139	138	127	view
Cory Luebke	116	84	144	173	128	view
Anibal Sanchez	123	152	140	104	129	view
Ichiro Suzuki	130	148	90	162	130	view
Paul Goldschmidt	105	143	135	148	131	view
Mark Reynolds	149	134	117	133	132	view
Alex Avila	150	164	109	116	133	view
Ryan Madson	132	131	150	128	134	view
Heath Bell	155	102	152	136	135	view
Chris Carpenter	138	127	143	146	136	view
Joel Hanrahan	125	174	131	127	137	view
J.J. Putz	113	171	132	144	138	view
J.J. Hardy	184	140	116	120	139	view
Ricky Romero	141	123	166	135	140	view
Ubaldo Jimenez	146	136	128	156	141	view
Max Scherzer	129	137	142	158	142	view
Brandon Morrow	142	133	141	150	143	view
Danny Espinosa	153	141	191	87	144	view
Mike Moustakas	154	130	153	151	145	view
Jose Valverde	152	129	157	166	146	view
Andrew Bailey	169	138	156	142	147	view
Jhonny Peralta	185	228	106	122	148	view
Neil Walker	131	149	148	187	149	view
Shaun Marcum	133	132	197	153	150	view
Erick Aybar	168	155	146	147	151	view
Jemile Weeks	144	144	–	134	152	view
Kenley Jansen	167	176	118	168	153	view
Nick Swisher	137	169	155	172	154	view
David Freese	151	150	147	185	155	view
Rafael Betancourt	163	173	171	131	156	view
Sergio Santos	159	201	149	139	157	view
Jeff Francoeur	164	153	138	209	158	view
Jeremy Hellickson	172	160	170	155	159	view
Coco Crisp	179	139	162	184	160	view
Jaime Garcia	145	202	168	154	161	view
Jason Motte	173	185	164	149	162	view
Wilson Ramos	147	161	–	169	163	view
Kendrys Morales	187	146	145	239	164	view
Peter Bourjos	162	175	182	163	165	view
Huston Street	189	191	158	145	166	view
Torii Hunter	165	247	127	208	167	view
Adam Lind	191	145	159	250	168	view
Emilio Bonifacio	134	188	174	210	169	view
Johnny Cueto	176	126	–	213	170	view
Tim Hudson	148	163	193	214	171	view
Matt Joyce	192	220	161	152	172	view
Joakim Soria	177	178	151	201	173	view
Yadier Molina	190	157	–	159	174	view
Neftali Feliz	–	128	179	245	175	view
Jordan Walden	–	195	173	140	176	view
Geovany Soto	–	267	178	130	177	view
Carlos Marmol	182	158	172	203	178	view
Chris Sale	199	159	167	189	179	view
Kelly Johnson	161	172	190	192	180	view
J.P. Arencibia	156	199	–	160	181	view
Mark Trumbo	170	193	154	238	182	view
Dexter Fowler	196	166	184	174	183	view
Ervin Santana	135	244	–	186	184	view
Jhoulys Chacin	203	156	–	167	185	view
Hiroki Kuroda	201	154	194	177	186	view
Wandy Rodriguez	–	167	–	161	187	view
Russell Martin	166	284	–	165	188	view
Stephen Drew	198	194	–	141	189	view
Joe Nathan	195	177	165	–	190	view
Derek Holland	180	223	169	188	191	view
Edwin Encarnacion	157	215	–	182	192	view
Colby Rasmus	160	210	–	180	193	view
Gaby Sanchez	194	165	–	194	194	view
Brandon McCarthy	186	168	–	223	195	view
Clay Buchholz	–	229	186	171	196	view
James Loney	–	212	–	157	197	view
Brandon League	–	189	187	183	198	view
Angel Pagan	158	208	–	–	199	view
Jose Tabata	202	257	183	176	200	view

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:24am (2) Comments

Monday, February 27, 2012

Random rankings thoughts

Since we started the THT rankings process, I’ve learned two things. Rankings don’t mean anything because they don’t take into context roster formation, inflation/deflation, or any other variables that render themselves during the draft process. You should only use rankings as a frame of reference. I wouldn’t even recommend using them as a base for drafting because everything changes at the draft table, even down to a silly list.

For example, I wouldn’t draft Johan Santana based on my rankings, but if my team conditions favor an ERA upside play, then there may not be a better, cheaper option than Santana. I obviously would pull the trigger no matter my previous feelings or, more importantly, my rankings.

The other thing I learned is that I am fascinated by standard deviation in “expert” rankings. I will spend the most time on this topic because I think it has a real use for you as well as my mindless musings.

Basically, for all you non-mathletes out there, standard deviation is the movement from the mean (average). Thanks to Fantasy Pros , we can actually look at how the greatest minds in the industry feel about a player, even if it’s in an arbitrary ranking. I firmly believe the standard deviation table may be of more use than the overall rankings list itself.

One of the biggest question marks I have when I go into a draft is how other managers truly value players. Obviously, I feel pretty confident about the players I want and how I’m going to go about getting them. The unknown is how the other managers feel about those same players.

By looking at the standard deviation, we are able to understand draft volatility a little bit better than we may have ever before. If a player has an extreme movement from the "expert" consensus thought, then there’s a chance that somebody in your league may share the positive/negative feelings surrounding the player.

Understanding a player with extreme volatility could be a huge bonus for a manager that knows how to use this information properly. I like using a volatile player early in the nomination process of an auction draft. The idea is that the draft room will either overspend or underspend. Either way, that benefits you. People, this is good stuff. I hope you are paying attention.

Here is what I’m going to call the “Kipnis Effect”. Another benefit of using standard deviation as a draft tool may be the way it can enhance your strategy towards certain players that you feel favorably about. For example, take a look at Jason Kipnis. He ranges from 62 overall all the way to 250 with a deviation from the mean of 50.4.

Looking a little further into who has him ranked where, Kipnis becomes an even more interesting case. His ranking amongst individual experts is down at 163 at its lowest. The 174 and 250 rankings are that of CBS Sports and ESPN’s site rankings, respectively. I take this to mean that Kipnis will inherently be cheaper on these sites.

There have been studies, I believe performed by Rotoauthority or Baseball HQ, that confirm draft prices are dictated by site rankings. So if you like Kipnis at 62 overall, you won’t have to spend nearly that much to get him. This is all assuming you aren’t drafting with Kipnis himself or someone related to Kipnis or someone that’s crushing on Kipnis. Here are some other players I found experiencing the Kipnis Effect: Alejandro De Aza, Seth Smith, and J.P. Arencibia.

Just like extreme deviation is important, I think no deviation at all has equal value. Assuming multiple sources provide the same rating, you can have a better idea of what the room is willing to pay for that particular player. I don’t think there would be a more valuable tool than to know nearly every move my opponents are going to make before they make it.

It’s not as easy to garner useful information off non-deviating rankings since most of the pertaining players are the earlier-round selections where consensus thought tends to reign supreme, or they are found in the last three hundred where the expert rankings become fewer. If you focus on the guys in the forty-and-beyond range, you might find a little more useful consistency.

For example, David Price has the lowest deviation of 8.5 with a consensus ranking of 47. I think that you can expect Price to stay in this general area of drafts. For me, a guy that likes Price as a fantasy ace this year, this information is priceless. I can safely assume I will be able to draft him as the 40th player and still find value without much risk of losing him to other owners.

Now, this practice may be reserved more towards snake drafts, but the principle can be used in auction, as well, if you focus your attention on the positional rankings.

Put a pen to paper and map out the players you want on your fantasy team. Winning fantasy baseball isn’t necessarily how much you know, it’s how much work you are willing to put into winning. I believe there’s less pre-work that needs to be done in a snake draft than an auction draft. So, using standard deviation in these postional rankings should help with designing tiers more efficiently in auction leagues. Effective use of tiers is all up to a particular manager’s roster-building strategy.

I actually learned through this exercise with rankings deviation that there is a strong chance I will draft Carlos Gonzalez. Upon looking at where I have him ranked in contrast with my colleagues, I apparently like him more, and he will baseline a tier I fully expect to draft early in all leagues, including my snake and auction leagues.

I must close with my final thoughts about the whole THT rankings process. I always loved my own personal rankings as a basis for thought and have never had to be held accountable for their accuracy. So this whole exercise was new and different. However, I didn’t realize how difficult it would be.

I spend an average of two hours a day totally dedicated to reading, analyzing, and researching fantasy baseball. For these rankings I spent at least six to eight hours of concentrated thinking. Even with that effort, I don’t think they are anywhere near where they should be. I pride myself on the knowledge base I’ve built, which is why I began writing for THT in the first place.

The ranking of players made me realize that any one person’s personal rankings are fatally flawed. We are influenced by the baseline rankings provided by Fantasy Pros. We are slaves to our own bias. I found myself driven to the point of frustration over whether Colby Rasmus should be higher than Brandon Belt when it really doesn’t matter.

Furthermore, I know that my fellow writers would agree that rankings do not and will never account for shifts in draft momentum, nor do they adapt themselves to the fluidity of your lineup. Rankings are cold and dead. Tiers are better, but I don’t think that being constrained by making sure a specific tier is targeted is that much better, though I like the idea of building talent tiers. I figure the name of the game in fantasy baseball is all about accruing stats in the most efficient manner.

Obviously, the most efficient manner to accrue stats is to draft the perfect team and never have to manage or do anything. Now, that wouldn’t be fun, but I started thinking about all the talent monikers we bestow on different types of fantasy players. Now, this is just in the early stages of my thought process, but shouldn’t it be smarter, especially in deeper leagues, to draft based on a specific type of talent rather than a blank name ranking?

Take the famed “five-tool” fantasy player. You could easily tier that out with Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Justin Upton, and Jacoby Ellsbury in the first tier. Follow that up with an Ian Kinsler, Hanley Ramirez, Curtis Granderson, David Wright, and Andrew McCutchen tier. Then you have the likes of Brett Lawrie, Hunter Pence, and such. You get the idea.

This exercise can be repeated with power, speed, average/contact, RBI (batting order placement), prospects, wins (good teams), strikeouts, ERA/WHIP, and even five-tool pitchers (do-everything talents). I believe that I have always done this type of rationalization in drafts before now, but it was always done in my head as I was making quick decisions. All this list-making made me really feel like some lists are more beneficial than others.

Do these kinds of rankings rather than the ones we did. The Baseball Forecaster by Ron Shandler does a decent job of presenting data in previous stats-based tables that mimic the kind of tiers I’m talking about. However, you have to build these talent tiers yourself.

No one can account for the future, and no one can account for the daily changes in fantasy. Nailing down where to put which player in which talent tier can only come with research. I hope over the month of March to focus on building some of these talent tiers for you guys. Until then, happy spring training to all.

Posted by Ben Pritchett at 5:10am (7) Comments

This week in (fantasy) baseball 2/20-2/26

It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a regular basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.

Ryan Braun is back

Who knew that a late delivery to the FedEx man could have such significant fantasy implications? As red-faced major league officials scramble to revisit the sport’s methods of policing performance enhancing drug usage, fantasy owners celebrate the exoneration of Ryan Braun, who instantly returns to the first round of every mixed-league draft this season.

Braun last year was a five-category demon, as he compiled career highs in steals (33), RBIs (111) and batting average (.332) while slugging 33 home runs and 111 RBIs. He’ll likely miss Prince Fielder’s protection, but hopefully Aramis Ramirez can provide some semblance of continuity out of the Milwaukee cleanup spot.

Baseball might be a sport where even the best hitters bat only once every nine times, and yet, a presence like Braun is felt throughout an entire game. For guys like Ramirez, Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart and Mat Gamel, Braun’s gravitational pull at the center of the order will keep their stats inflated and help bring run support to the starting rotation.

Braun will, of course, have to deal with a summer of people calling him a cheater, so we’ll see how thick his skin is. But assuming the 28-year-old has stayed in shape during the offseason, it doesn’t appear he’ll miss any spring training time and will be in his MVP form to start the 2012 season.

Less thrilled about Braun’s return are probably Norichika Aoki, a three-time Japanese league batting champ acquired by Milwaukee over the offseason, and Carlos Gomez, both of whom stood to benefit from the extra playing time offered by Braun’s absence. Neither necessarily promised much in the way of fantasy aside from one-category production, but they’re definitely going to be relegated for use in only deeper leagues now, assuming Nyjer Morgan holds down the center field starting gig.

Chris Perez likely to miss start of season

The Indians’ closer hurt his left oblique last week and now will miss four to six weeks. There’s an outside chance he could return by Opening Day, but it’s probably safe to go ahead and start looking for backup options.

Perez’s most likely replacement is Vinnie Pestano, who put together a 2.32 ERA, 1.048 WHIP and an eye-popping 12.2 K/9 in 62 innings last year, his first full season. Pestano, 27, closed games throughout his minor-league career, so he should be a dependable option in deeper mixed leagues.

The better question is whether Pestano can acclimate himself to the role well enough to steal the job from Perez. Despite making the All-Star team and saving 90 percent of his opportunities last year, Perez compiled a mediocre 5.9 K/9, and both his FIP (4.27) and xFIP (5.01) were well above his 3.32 ERA. When healthy, Perez is a decent option, but Pestano certainly offers more upside if he can earn the full-time gig.

Raul Ibanez to round out Yankees' DH platoon

At 39, Raul Ibanez might not be getting any younger, but he was still fit enough last year to crush 20 home runs and collect 84 RBIs. His .245 average, the lowest full-season mark of his career, is a reasonable cause for concern, but it was also diminished by a .268 BABIP, more than 30 points below his career average.

Ibanez’s impact will be blunted by the amount of playing time he receives, as he’ll join Andruw Jones in a DH platoon in New York. But he’s coming to a place that, according to Stat Corner, boosts left-handed home runs by nearly 30 percent more than Citizens Bank Park. For a guy who’s a dead pull-hitter, he could be someone worth using in deeper leagues as a platoon man. Let’s just hope he stays healthy.

Manny Ramirez, A's agree to minor-league deal

Manny might not be the fantasy stud he was in his heyday, but he could have an impact in deeper leagues once he returns from his 50-game suspension. But he’s 39 years old, and would likely have to siphon off at-bats from Seth Smith or Chris Carter at the DH spot for playing time. Still, it’s hard to turn your back on one of the best hitters of the past 20 years, and plenty of faded stars, from Frank Thomas to Mike Piazza, have found playing time and ways to make a fantasy impact in Oakland.

Other odds and ends from around MLB

• Joel Zumuya's faulty right elbow is acting up again, as an MRI revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament. That means he'll be gone for the rest of this season, which is too bad, since had he been healthy, he might have been a dark-horse candidate to pick up saves for the Twins.

• Speaking of injury-prone players, Grady Sizemore strained his lower back earlier this month, and we learned this week he'll miss Opening Day and does not have a firm return date. Of course, you have only yourself to blame if this comes as a surprise, as Sizemore has appeared in only 210 games from 2009-11. He's still only 29, so there's hope he'll return sooner rather than later as he works to find the magic that once made him one of fantasy's best players.

• Trying to rehab from a shoulder injury, Jon Garland did not take his physical examination last week, thus voiding his minor-league deal with Cleveland.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:11am (0) Comments

Roundtable: why rank?

There was some discussion among the four staffers who compiled, over the last two weeks, the THT consensus rankings that top-200 lists and similar endeavors are pretty much dumb. Besides being wickedly tedious to put together, they don't do much by way of providing context or personal preference in draft strategy, and—we're guilty of this too—are thrown at readers among a mess of other top 200 lists.

So I set the THT staff out to discuss such rankings and share our opinions on the matter. For better transparency, and for better drafting, we do discuss.

Nick Fleder: I admit this may come across as slightly hypocritical, but during the compilation of our staff rankings, I recognized that there wasn't a lot of love for top-200 lists, or even top-250 and top-300 lists, for that matter. Point being: the number is mostly arbitrary and requires a great deal of context that isn't provided.

For example, my top 200 list may cater to how I play as a fantasy baller (never heard that one before, have you?): I may go pitching-heavy in my ranks, have shortstops top-heavy, and have relievers all in the 150-plus range because I simply don't pay for saves.

Whatever my mindset may be, it's certainly not supported by seemingly random rankings. It requires an in-depth, comprehensive write-up that would be not only tiresome to this author, but worthless to many readers who may then have to struggle with 15 different write-ups from 15 different sources that actually provide no consensus whatsoever but rather a vast jumbling of data to sift through.

Josh Shepardson: My biggest problem with the top-200 is the lack of context it comes with. A top-200 list is going to look much different for a two-catcher, corner-infielder, middle-infielder, five-outfielder league than one that starts one catcher, no backup infielders and only three outfielders (Yahoo! default).

It is also inherently silly. If I take my 12th-best player, and he's a starting pitcher, and I come up on the clock again, and hey look, another starting pitcher tops my list, am I really going to go SP/SP in the first two rounds? Maybe, if it is some kind of strategy I've already planned on, but likely no.

Jeff Gross: Oh, boy. I could never rank my top 200. I have issues ranking 60 outfielders, and 100 starters is pushing it, too. THT Forecasts has a "more perfect" system that has billions of iterations and positional value adjustment, but here's the quick and dirty Z-Score weighting system known as EYES.

Brad Johnson: I don't really do snake drafts anymore, so rankings have very little impact on my approach to fantasy. I consider position rankings to be a basic sorting feature and will occasionally draft a guy who is two or more spots from the top at a specific position based on my team needs.

Given that I put little stock in positional rankings, it follows that I think big boards are nonsense. Your first couple of picks should come from the big board and your personal preferences. After that, you really ought to be building by team-specific needs such as position and category rather than whether or not Player X is 43rd-ranked and Player Y is 68th-ranked. If Player Y is better for your team, and you're not very confident he'll be available for your next pick, then select Player Y.

Mark Himmelstein: In previous years, have you noticed you have a penchant for finding anything in particular on the waiver wire? Saves, perhaps? Or maybe outfielders who steal bases? Or pitchers with a good ERA but modest strikeout rate? Then focus on other areas in the draft, even if you think Brian Wilson, Brett Gardner, or Doug Fister is the best player left on the board.

The converse of this is true, as well. If you've found yourself repeatedly struggling to patch a particular type of hole using the waiver wire, that may be an area you should give extra priority on draft day, even in spite of your own rankings.

Jeff Gross: I think the problem with rankings if they don't indicate tiers. I internalize my valuations of players by tiers. There are "guys" who in my head are essentially fungible. That's how I view them. I like the rankings simply because it requires you to organize your thoughts some. Being a rankings slave, however, is silly.

Nick Fleder: I would urge readers to ask their trusted experts—if you want to call us that—to explain their mindsets in their specific rankings rather than blindly trusting. If my style fits yours, then you may want to take my top 200 to heart and use it as a cheat-sheet of sorts, but don't, by any means, trust any list over your gut.

This extends to a whole other side of drafting, one that Brad explained with the Player X and Player Y analogy: Do you feel comfortable taking someone way ahead of his Average Draft Position or rankings (the former often a byproduct of the latter, to a certain extent) if you really love 'em? Would you dare make Dee Gordon a seventh-round pick if he goes, on average, in the 10th?

There's a lot of strategy involved, and sometimes it takes a gutsy call—and don't forget that if everyone is playing from the same field, you may actually use that fallacy to your advantage by saying, "Hell, if everyone's gonna wait on a seventh-round player till the 10th, I can get some value in rounds seven to nine"—but as a general rule, cater to your gut rather than these rankings. Whew.

Brad Johnson: Then again, rankings were never meant for me. I have values for more than 500 players internalized. I can look at a sorted short list of names and pick the best one for my team without pause (okay, sometimes I need the full minute and a half to introspect). Rankings are for those who know the top 100 players and the guys on their favorite team but don't pay attention to an entire league.

So your choice to put stock in any rankings comes down to this: How many player values have you internalized? Is it 100? 200? 500? The more players you can analyze in detail without consulting a stats page, the less you should worry about rankings.

Mark Himmelstein: While these lists can be enlightening to discuss, we are not simply betting on which players are going to perform the best in a vacuum. We are playing a dynamic game based on the outcomes of another dynamic game. We are making decisions that are based on previous decisions and which in turn will influence future decisions, all of which are mixing and mingling with 11 other people's decisions.

That means strategy, tactics, creativity, self evaluation, evaluation of opponents and all that other fun stuff that's really what makes fantasy baseball such a fascinating game. It also means too much precision can be a sin. Adaptivity and good judgment will trump precision nine times out of 10.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:12am (8) Comments

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

The Verdict: Offseason keeper league trade dispute

There truly is no offseason in baseball - both real and fantasy. Many keeper leagues allow trades after the conclusion of the previous season and prior to the start of the next one. Given the nature of keeper leagues, trades do not always involve packages of absolute equivalent value. But when analyzing whether a trade should be permitted, it is necessary to evaluate other factors such as the salary cap implications, length of contracts, and the long-term effect on both teams. This is why there is a distinction between trades in keeper and non-keeper leagues.

The general standard is that trades should be allowed so long as there is no evidence of collusive conduct between teams, both teams agree to the terms, and a discernible benefit can be derived on both sides. Sometimes that benefit may not manifest itself in present-day statistics or performance. But in a keeper league, there is inherent value in acquiring young prospects who cost very little while gaining salary cap flexibility. Below is a recent case submitted to the Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment involving a disputed trade in a very large keeper league.

SUPREME COURT OF FANTASY JUDGMENT

Grave Diggers v. Chilidogs

ON PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI FROM THE WESTERN NY ROTISSERIE BASEBALL LEAGUE

Decided January 26, 2012
Cite as 4 F.J. 5 (January 2012)

Factual Background

A fantasy baseball league called the Western NY Rotisserie Baseball League (hereinafter referred to as “Roto league” or “WNYRBL”) is comprised of 22 teams and has been in existence since 1987. The WNYRBL, hosted on CBSSports.com, utilizes an auction format for its annual draft and bidding on free agents when making transactions. Each team has a draft budget of $260 and an after-auction salary cap of $325. It is a mixed AL/NL keeper league where each team may keep a minimum of five (5) players and a maximum of fifteen (15) players from one season to the next within its 23-man roster.

As with many rotisserie leagues, the WNYRBL uses the standard 5×5 scoring categories to determine the standings and prize money. For offensive players, the five categories are: (1) batting average; (2) homeruns; (3) runs batted in; (4) runs scored; and (5) stolen bases. For pitchers, the five categories are: (1) wins; (2) earned run average; (3) WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched); (4) strikeouts; and (5) saves. Statistics are cumulative throughout the course of the season and there are no head to head games contained within the Roto league.

Because this is a keeper league, players may be signed to contracts as part of their retention from year to year. The rules regarding players’ contracts is as follows:

XV. LONG TERM CONTRACTS

A player whose been under contract for two consecutive seasons at the same salary must, prior to the freezing of the rosters in his 3rd or option season, be:

1. Released;
2. Signed at the same salary for his option year; or
3. Signed to a guaranteed long term contract.

If released, the player returns to the free agent pool and becomes available to the highest bidder at the next auction.

If signed at the same salary for the option year, the player must be released back into the free agent pool at the end of the season.

If signed to a guaranteed long term contract, the player's salary in each year covered by the new contract (which commences with the option year) shall be the sum of his current salary plus $5.00 for each addition year beyond the option year. In addition, a signing bonus, equal to one half the total value of the contract, but no less than $5.00 shall be paid.

Trades are permitted during the offseason. According to Section XI of the WNYRBL’s rules, trades are permissible after the last day of the season until rosters are frozen, which is two weeks prior to the draft.

Procedural History

The Grave Diggers have made a trade with the Chilidogs. The Grave Diggers traded Mitch Moreland (1B-TEX, $3.00 with one year of eligibility at this salary remaining) and Brent Morel (3B-CHW, $3.00 with one year of eligibility at this salary remaining) to the Chilidogs in exchange for Jose Reyes (SS-MIA, $38.00 with one year of eligibility at this salary remaining) and Javy Guerra (RP-LAD, $14.00 and in the first year of his short-term contract).

Issue Presented

(1) Should the trade between the Grave Diggers and the Chilidogs be upheld and approved?

Decision

The Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment typically favors individual fantasy sports participants and teams’ ability to make moves, transactions, and trades. People pay money participate in fantasy leagues, and generally they should be afforded the freedom to manage their team accordingly. Whether success is bred from that individual’s decision-making is purely left to skill, luck, dedication, and savviness. See 4 Ponies v. Carson City Cocks, 3 F.J. 13 (May 2011).

The Court also acknowledges that the analysis for evaluating trades is much different in a keeper league than a non-keeper league. A trade that may look uneven or lopsided on its face may receive a different opinion when it is involved in a keeper league. The reasons for this are obvious, but must be restated.

In a keeper league, teams that are having unsuccessful seasons are more likely to continue to pay attention and make moves that will set themselves up for better success in the following season. They can do this by acquiring young talent that is not under contract within the league, or by dumping salary (assuming it is an auction league) and allowing greater financial flexibility to sign key players in the next season’s draft. In non-keeper leagues, there is no rationale for thinking ahead, nor is there any need to stockpile young, inexpensive talent. See Smittydogs v. Moneyball, 1 F.J. 32, 33 (June 2010).

Another factor that the Court must always consider is whether there is any collusion or illicit dealings going on between teams. The Court has not been presented with any evidence of such malfeasance, so no analysis of potential collusive activity will be conducted.

At first glance, the trade of Mitch Moreland and Brent Morel in exchange for Jose Reyes and Javy Guerra looks imbalanced. Reyes is clearly the best player involved in this trade and has exponentially more fantasy value than both Moreland and Morel. The fact that he is being traded for players with far less value precipitates the need to analyze the merits of the trade beyond mere statistics.

The scope of the Court’s authority is to govern and advise when there is a dispute as to the validity of trades, rulings, decisions or other issues that arise within the league. See Silveramo v. Nation, 2 F.J. 38, 41 (October 2010) (holding that making a judgment on whether an individual did something stupid falls outside of the Court’s jurisdiction). It is not up to the Court to make a determination on what is considered intelligent.

Unwise decisions should not be scrutinized or vetoed merely because they are unwise. See Road Runners v. Urban Achievers, 3 F.J. 47, 50 (June 2011) (holding that the main criteria for evaluating a trade is its inherent fairness, not whether it was an intelligent decision by a league member to make the deal). Rather, the Court’s role in this jurisdiction is to evaluate the objective merits of a deal and ensure that the integrity of the league is maintained. See Victoria’s Secret v. C-Train, 2 F.J. 32, 35 (October 2010).

A player’s value is not necessarily equivalent to the accumulation of several other less valuable players’ statistics. See Team Sabo v. Nub Vader, 3 F.J. 55, 56 (July 2011). The Court has no issues with the idea of trading superstar players, such as Reyes, so long as the package in return is equitable and makes sense given the needs of both teams. See 4 Ponies v. Beaver Hunters, 3 F.J. 26, 29 (June 2011). Here, it is empirically evident that Reyes and Guerra have better statistics and value than Moreland and Morel. As such, there is no need to break down each player’s individual statistics for comparison. Rather, the Court must look at other intangible factors to determine whether this trade should be upheld.

The approval or rejection of a trade should be based on whether the deal is fair, free from collusion, and in the best interests of the league. Whether a trade is intelligent or popular will not be part of the analysis. See 4 Ponies v. Beaver Hunters, 3 F.J. 26, 27 (June 2011). The virtue of a trade is measured in both quantifiable criteria and subjective needs of the teams involved. See Carson City Cocks v. Stud Muffins, 3 F.J. 23, 24 (May 2011).

The Court will consider each team’s individual needs to assess whether the trade subjectively made sense from both perspectives. See Cajon Crawdads vs. Carson City Cocks, 1 F.J. 41, 42 (June 2010) (upholding a trade for Jason Bay because of the Carson City Cocks’ desperate need for a starting outfielder due to the demotion of Cameron Maybin). A trade will be rejected when the Court cannot objectively ascertain any benefit to one of the teams and the net result in no way makes a team better now or in the future. See Los Pollos Hermanos v. Little Stumps, 3 F.J. 192, 195 (October 2011).

The record is devoid of the current rosters for both the Grave Diggers and Chilidogs. However, we can still determine certain needs and priorities of both teams based on the information provided. The Grave Diggers finished in last place in 2011 and clearly want to improve this season.

By acquiring Reyes and Guerra, the Grave Diggers will unquestionably improve their rankings in several rotisserie categories based on the players’ past performances and projected statistics. On the other hand, the Chilidogs finished in 4th place in 2011 and appear to desire younger players with upside, and to have more salary cap flexibility for the auction draft. For the 2012 season, the Chilidogs will save $46 by making this trade. This is a significant amount considering it represents approximately 17% of the draft budget allotted.

This trade, as with any other, is not free from risk for the team acquiring the established talent. Reyes, 28, is anything but a lock to stay healthy and produce for the entire season. He will be playing for a new team with a lot of pressure on him to justify his six year/$106 million contract. He is coming off a season where he went on the disabled list twice with hamstring injuries. His stolen base totals have not come anywhere near his totals from 2005-2008, which is due to many factors including age and injuries. Additionally, Guerra may not be the closer again for the Dodgers as Kenley Jansen may get an opportunity to seize the job.

The dichotomy between the Grave Diggers and the Chilidogs motivations is precisely why the Court must look at trades in keeper leagues differently than non-keeper leagues. See Smittydogs v. Moneyball, 1 F.J. 32, 34 (June 2010). Team owners in keeper leagues must make critical roster management decisions with respect to trading off established talent in exchange for unknown and less expensive commodities to help build for the future. See Winners v. Seven Shades of Shite, 3 F.J. 97, 102 (July 2011). Had this trade been made in a non-keeper league, the Court would ardently reject it.

Based on the foregoing, the Court approves the subject trade between the Grave Diggers and the Chilidogs. It is understandable why a trade such as this would receive opposition because there is a dramatic difference in the present day value of both respective packages. See Cowboys vs. Knights, 3 F.J. 147, 150 (August 2011).

However, there are other factors to consider when determining whether a trade should be approved besides the actual statistics on the back of a baseball card. Here, a trade was proposed and agreed to between two teams with differing priorities. While the trade is comprised of two packages that cannot be considered completely equivalent, it is free from collusion and has discernible benefits for both parties. See Specialists vs. Knights, 3 F.J. 151, 154 (August 2011). As such, the trade should be approved as it comports with the best interests of the league.

IT IS SO ORDERED.

Posted by Michael Stein at 12:33am (7) Comments

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Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Players being over-drafted