|
May 25, 2013
THT Essentials:
Rich Barbieri
John Barten Kyle Boddy Brian Borawski James Gentile Matt Hunter Frank Jackson Chris Jaffe Brad Johnson Jason Linden Dan Lependorf Bruce Markusen Jeff Moore Greg Simons Scott Spratt Dave Studeman Shane Tourtellotte Steve Treder And here's the full roster. Now available
Or you can search by:
THT E-book    All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons License. |
 Friday, March 09, 2012Top-100 Fantasy Baseball Prospects Part 1: 1-251: Bryce Harper/OF/Washington Nationals/10-16-92/ETA: 2012 Forecast notes: Projects for 20+ home runs as soon as next season, and 25+ starting in 2014. Not just a power hitter, he'll help across the board. Scouting notes: March 2012: Harper remains the top fantasy baseball prospect in the game. He did everything that could reasonably be expected of him in his pro debut, and then some probably. He followed up his minor league season by demolishing pitching in the Arizona Fall League (AFL). He received 105 plate appearances and hit .333/.400/.634 with six home runs, four stolen bases, and a solid 11:22 walk-to-strikeout (BB:K). Harper's outstanding play has led many to speculate he'll break camp with the Nationals. Manager Davey Johnson is lobbying for his inclusion on the Opening Day roster, but the club may choose to send him to Triple-A Syracuse to avoid losing a year of control. Regardless of where he starts the year, he'll finish it in the majors, barring injury. October 2011: Last year's top overall selection in the draft has lived up to his lofty billing as arguably the top prospect in baseball. He opened the year in High-A, no small feat for an 18-year-old, and promptly showed off all of his tools. His power was on display with 14 home runs in 258 at-bats in High-A and he tacked on three more in 129 Double-A at-bats. In addition to his power tool, which is his greatest asset, he displayed tremendous strike zone awareness with a 59:87 walk-to-strikeout rate between both minor league stops. Perhaps most surprising is Harper's above-average speed, which allowed him to steal 26 bases with a passable seven times caught stealing. At just 18, Harper is built like a Mack truck at 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, but in the event he further fills out as he ages, his speed tool will almost certainly be adversely affected. On the flip side, such maturation may further enhance his power tool, which projects to rate as an 80 on the 20-80 scale. With power numbers down in the majors the past few seasons, Harper gets the nod over fellow blue chip prospect Mike Trout for top honors on this list. 2: Mike Trout/OF/Los Angeles Angels/ 8-7-91/ ETA: Arrived Forecast notes: Projects to be a .300+ hitter with mid-to-high teens home run power and plus stolen base contributions before his 25th birthday. Scouting notes: March 2012: An offseason of activity has created some hurdles for Trout to clear for playing time. The trickle-down effect of Albert Pujols signing with the Angels is that Kendrys Morales will primarily play designated hitter, taking away a position to unclog the outfield log jam. The likely starting arrangement features Vernon Wells, Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter (that's not to mention Bobby Abreu, who is buried on the bench). Trout bypassed Triple-A entirely, so it wouldn't be the end of the world if he were to start the year there and get further seasoning. It's hard to see him not forcing the Angels' hand at some point. He's simply too talented. October 2011: For those who like to straddle fences, Trout could easily be considered 1A. He played most of this season as a 19-year-old in Double-A before the Angels promoted him for the first time in July. He raked in the minors, but was unable to carry that over when making the leap from Double-A to the majors. He wasn't entirely overmatched, though, and his second go-round has been much kinder to him. His greatest fantasy asset is his 80 speed tool. Unlike some speedsters, Trout isn't a one-trick pony. He possesses the skills necessary to hit for average, reach base via the walk, and even hit for above-average power down the line. Five-tool players with an advanced approach at the plate who reach the major leagues before their 20th birthday are a rare breed, and Trout is just that. Gamers who play in leagues with specific outfield designations (i.e. left field, center field, right field) have a strong case to flip-flop Trout with Harper on this list. 3: Matt Moore/SP/Tampa Bay Rays/6-18-89/ETA: Arrived Forecast notes: Oliver indicates that ERA and WHIP expectations should be tempered, but the strikeouts, they'll be there in bunches. Just under 10 K/9 in 2012-2013, over the 10 K/9 mark by 2014. Scouting notes: March 2012: All Matt Moore did after this list came out last year was spin a seven-inning, two-hit gem against the Rangers in the American League Division Series. He wouldn't make another start in the series, but he did make a three-inning relief appearance in which he gave up just one earned run on a solo home run. In total, he threw 10 innings, allowing one earned run, three hits and three walks and fanning eight. The Rays have seven starters vying for five spots. Alex Cobb seems like an easy cut from the mix, but since the Rays failed to trade Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis, it is unclear how the team plans to open up a rotation spot for Moore. He's proven all he needs to in the minors, and one way or another, should net over 150 innings in the major league rotation. This time next year, the talk of what starting pitcher should go first in fantasy drafts could include Moore. October 2011: Coming into the season just one facet of Moore's game needed further refining, something he already began to iron out in the second half of 2010: his command and control. Moore has done that this year. shaving a full walk off his 2010 BB/9 rate while maintaining a strikeout rate that would be elite by relief pitcher standards. He toyed with Double-A and Triple-A hitters this year and catapulted himself to top status among prospect pitchers. Moore is a southpaw who comes at hitters with a plus velocity fastball that touched triple digits in the Futures Game, and routinely sits in the mid-90s, a curveball and a change-up. He is the total package, and has the goods necessary to outperform Jeremy Hellickson's impressive (though luck-aided) rookie season. 4: Jurickson Profar/SS/Texas Rangers/2-20-93/ETA: 2013 Forecast notes: Plenty of glove to stick at shortstop, but the bat will lag behind for a bit. Strong minor league walk rates project well with Oliver, and Profar should get a bump in value in OBP leagues. Scouting notes: March 2012: Profar has passed Manny Machado for top prospect shortstop honors. My speculation about a possible position change because of the presence of Elvis Andrus was premature. Andrus has yet to sign an extension with the Rangers, and as a Scott Boras client, is likely to test the free agent waters. He is under Rangers team control until 2014, so it's likely the situation will work itself out. Looking at the keystone position, Ian Kinsler's Rangers contract will be up after 2013 (assuming they pick up his 2013 option). Wherever Profar plays up the middle, his bat will be special. He can be a five-category contributor. Those are great to own at any position, and special when it is at a middle infield position. October 2011: Profar is an exceptional talent at shortstop both in the field and at the plate. Jason Parks and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus are two of his biggest advocates, but John Sickels and the stable of writers/scouts at Baseball America also yield glowing reviews. He could easily be ranked next to, or even above Machado: His results have been better, he's younger and projects to be above average as an up-the-middle infield defender. I rank him a few spots later because I think he'll be forced to move to second base. In most organizations, there would be no question he'd stick at his current position, but the Rangers have this guy Elvis Andrus already in place, and he's pretty good. Profar's command of the strike zone is mind-boggling for an 18-year-old. He walked more than he struck out this year, and done so as a player who hits for pop and not just a slap singles type. The Rangers have set a precedent of aggressiveness with Andrus, indicating that if Profar is up for the challenge, they'll continue to move him up. 5: Jesus Montero/C/New York Yankees/11-28-89/ETA: Arrived Forecast notes: Offensive minded catcher who should hit for power as soon as this year, and not at the expense of batting average. Oliver likes him to post his first OPS north of .800 in 2013, but he won't be far off that mark this season. Scouting notes: March 2012: Bye, bye New York, hello Seattle. The Mariners shipped Michael Pineda and Jose Campos to the Yankees in return for Montero and Hector Noesi. Montero will no longer benefit from calling Yankee Stadium his home ballpark, but could benefit from no longer being pressed by better defensive catching options in the prospect ranks (the Yankees had both Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez climbing the ladder). Designated hitter is still probably his best defensive home, but it appears the Mariners are going to be willing to allow him to fake it behind the plate a little longer. The added value he'd get from retaining catcher eligibility for a few more seasons far outweighs park effects and lineup effects. The Mariners lineup won't need to be as a potent one-through-nine as the Yankees for Montero to be a counting stats beast hitting third or fourth in the lineup. Montero made good on his hype in a 61 at-bat cup of coffee at the end of 2011, hitting .328/.406/.590 with four home runs. He won't post peak years numbers in his rookie season in 2012, but expectations of a .280 average and 20 home runs aren't wildly optimistic at all. October 2011: He's listed as a catcher now, but it is nearly impossible to find a scouting report that considers Montero as anything more than a designated hitter masquerading as a catcher. Only the most arduous Yankees homers seem to think he can stick behind the plate; thus, he's ranked behind players he would otherwise be ranked in front of should he remain at his current defensive home. Montero's bat was among the best in the minors, and at just 21 this year he was young for the Triple-A level. He offers plus power with projection for more down the road, but not at the expense of average. If he remains a Yankee and isn't used as a trade chip, he should be the full-time designated hitter in 2012. Ideally, at least from a fantasy perspective, he'll also serve as the backup catcher logging enough time to retain eligibility there. The Yankees have a number of aging players on long term deals who may be best suited playing designated hitter in the near future, leaving open the possibility Montero's future lies elsewhere. Regardless of where he calls home, both city and defensively, Montero is a young hitter who should be treasured in fantasy leagues. 6: Nolan Arenado/3B/Colorado Rockies/4-16-91/ETA: 2012 Forecast notes: Doesn't project to walk much, but makes up for it by rarely striking out. Should hit for a plus average and plus power right out of the chute. Scouting notes: March 2012: A superb showing in the AFL prompted crazy talk from the Rockies brass. They suggested that Arenado will be given a shot to win the third base job in spring training. I liken the odds of that happening to that of me winning Powerball. It's not a non-zero chance, but it is pretty darn close. That said, a summertime promotion isn't out of the question if he tears the cover off the ball in Double-A. Making the jump from Double-A to the majors is beginning to feel like the norm these days, and Arenado may add his name to the list of blue chip prospects to do so. He made strides to his walk rate in 2011, all the while reducing his strikeout rate to under 10 percent. Scouting reports of his defense are more favorable going into this season than they were going into last season, but he remains a hit-first, field-second, hot corner man. That's fine; Arenado has the hitting part under control. As he further physically matures, he should continue to see his home run output increase. Add that to his plus contribution to batting average, and that makes Arenado the best third base prospect in fantasy games. October 2011: A 20-year-old who is moving one level at a time, Arenado has plenty of time to remain on that development arc. Not a lock to stick at third base, but this projection operates under the assumption that his average defense shown this year will allow him to stay there for a bit. Most scouting reports consider his bat the best in the Rockies system. Playing home games at Coors has its perks, and Arenado could be a beneficiary. 7: Manny Machado/SS/Baltimore Orioles/7-6-92/ETA: 2013 Forecast notes: His power and average trend in the right direction, but he doesn't project to hit the 20 home run plateau in the six year forecast. Scouting notes: March 2012: Not noted in last year's write-up is that Machado missed time due to a knee injury in May. Prior to the injury, he was tormenting Low-A pitching. Shortly after his return, he was promoted to High-A. He flashed some power and patience in his time there, and I expect the average to go up significantly if he begins the year back at Frederick. The stay could be short there, and a promotion to Double-A during the season seems about right. October 2011: His stats won't jump off the page, but Machado's full season debut has been solid. Machado is an offensive-minded shortstop who is expected by most to stick there. As a toolsy high school shortstop who played his ball in Miami, he elicited comparisons to Alex Rodriguez. While it's not fair to saddle the youngster with that comparison, he does have a high ceiling in his own right. Most scouting reports project him for mid-teens to low 20s home run power with an average in the .300 range once he fully matures. His numbers this season may not suggest at an elite level for the offensively devoid shortstop position, but it's important to remember he played most of the year as an 18-year-old and there is a lot of projection and physical maturation to come. Believe the hype, and invest in a premium talent who could find himself atop this list next year if Harper graduates to the majors. 8: Devin Mesoraco/C/Cincinnati Reds/6-19-88/ETA: Arrived Forecast notes: Low-to-mid 20s home run output with a palatable average in the foreseeable future. Scouting notes: March 2012: Mesoraco's 2011 season confirmed his 2010 breakout was the real deal. He blends patience with power, and his low strikeout rate, 16.6 percent in Triple-A, should allow him to hit for a decent average. Ramon Hernandez is no longer with the Reds, but Ryan Hanigan still is. Eventually he'll wrestle the job away from Hanigan and relegate him to a backup gig. In the short term, Hanigan's excellent receiving and defensive skills, and manager Dusty Baker's preference for playing veterans, has the makings of split duties behind the dish. October 2011: If not for the strong play of Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan, the Reds likely would have summoned Mesoraco prior to September on the heels of his second strong year. It took him a few seasons, but last year Mesoraco began to show his offensive prowess, and that play carried over to this year. He offers plus power for the catcher position along with an astute eye that has helped him draw walks in over 10 percent of his plate appearances this season. A reasonable comp for Mesoraco would be Carlos Santana, with a bit less pop and current on-base skills. That difference in home run power may not fully show itself as Mesoraco will be playing his home games in a more favorable ballpark for hitting home runs. Reviews of his defense are encouraging enough to expect him to catch for an extended period of time, even if it will be as no more than an adequate defender with a plus bat. In the fantasy game, all that matters is that he retains the "C" next to his name in the lineup. 9:Travis d'Arnaud/C/Toronto Blue Jays/2-10-89/ETA 2012 Forecast notes: Decent pop, but a low OBP and .250-ish average with it. A follow-up of last year's breakout would go a long way in future projection. Scouting notes: March 2012: D'Arnaud had a career year in 2011 and began turning some of his promise into performance on the diamond. He hit for power and average, earning Double-A Eastern League MVP hardware. The next step in his offensive development will be working more walks. His 7.1 percent walk rate is on the low side, but his 21.5 percent strikeout rate is acceptable for a player that displays the type of power d'Arnaud does. I'm more bullish on d'Arnaud's batting average potential than the Forecast, but I agree with the low-to-mid-20s home run projection. D'Arnaud will be among the first catchers to have their name called in fantasy drafts in the coming years. He should put up jaw-dropping numbers in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League before a summer promotion. October 2011: Behind just Mesoraco and Sanchez, d'Arnaud is an exciting offensively talented catcher. J.P. Arencibia is currently catching for the parent club, and while he's made strides defensively he's still not an asset back there. d'Arnaud is the future at catcher for the Blue Jays and should dispatch of Arencibia. perhaps as soon as next year thanks to stronger defensive skills and better hitting skills than Arencibia, who relies on an all-or-nothing approach. 10: Wil Myers/OF/Kansas City Royals/12-10-90/ETA: 2012 Forecast notes: Oliver isn't particularly bullish on his fantasy stock. Modest power and modest average, but strong OBPs Scouting notes: March 2012: As fast as Myers dropped on prospect lists after a disappointing year at Double-A, he's working on making an equally quick ascent back up after a big AFL showing. In 106 plate appearances, he walked more than he struck out, and hit .360/.481/.674. The AFL is a hitters' haven, so the numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. More important than the specific line is that he got back to playing well and displayed he was over the ailments that dogged him during the minor league season. Scouting reports don't uniformly expect him to hit for plus power, but the overriding feeling I get from reading them is that most believe he will. A few question his ability to hit for a high average. He already shows the plate discipline of a player much older, and should eventually slot in the heart of the Royals order. He may need to repeat Double-A and put his poor play there behind him before the Royals deem him ready for Triple-A. He could hit his way to the Show as soon as this season. October 2011: Becoming a full-time outfielder in place of being developed as a catcher to get his bat to the big leagues faster, and then struggling at the plate in Double-A is a formula for sliding down prospect lists. It's hard to ignore his previous production, and he's young for the Double-A level, so repeating it to start next year isn't the end of the world. Most scouting gurus suggest his solid approach should lead to a high batting average and above-average power. There is some question whether his power will translate to games, but even in a down year there is a lot to like. Don't start selling his stock now. 11: Gary Sanchez/C/New York Yankees/12-2-92/ETA: 2014 Forecast notes: Sanchez's youth and current power appeal to Oliver. He projects to be a monster in the power categories. Scouting notes: March 2012: Sanchez's fall in the rankings is exclusively a product of me making a conscious effort to rank players closer to big league-ready higher. That said, his ceiling is too high to drop any lower. His defense still needs work, but the seeds of becoming a decent defender are there. His power was silly for an 18-year-old. Hitting more than 30 home runs in the big leagues is not only not out of the question, but is reasonably probable. He currently strikes out too much to hit for a high average, but he's expected to be an above-average hitter as he matures. Look for him to cut back on his whiffs as he ages. Sanchez has a chance to be a middle of the order bat in a lineup that is always loaded, in a ballpark that is a band box, at a scarce position. That's what fantasy dreams are made of. October 2011: His projection seems optimistic, but he's succeeding as a 19-year-old and has superb scouting reports. No questions about his ability to stay behind the plate, and the only thing that prevents him from slotting in just behind the big two is that he's still in the low minors and requires some dreaming on. He possesses plus raw power that is showing itself in games already and a plus hit tool that's still developing. Time is very much on his side, and thanks to his position his ceiling is higher than any other player on this list including Harper and Trout. The Yankees struck gold signing this young Dominican-born catcher to a $3 million bonus. 12: Miguel Sano/3B/Minnesota Twins/5-11-93/ETA: 2014 Forecast notes: Elite level power, but it comes at a cost. High strikeout rates will hamper batting average. Scouting notes: March 2012: There are big questions about his future defensive home. Some suggest he can stick at third base, others expect him to fill out to the point he'll need to move to first base or right field. No one is questioning his power, though. He hits the ball with authority to all fields, and his power potential may trail only that of Harper. It is expected he'll tone down the strikeouts some as he becomes better at recognizing pitch types. That would help his average in the upper minors and majors tremendously. With power down the last few years, Sano is a welcome sight off in the horizon. October 2011: Sano requires quite a bit of dreaming on to justify this ranking. He crushed the ball in the Appalachian League, but it's his projection for plus-plus power at third base, that should excite people. The biggest question is where his defensive home will be when he reaches the majors. He has seen time at shortstop and third base, but is a near certainty to be pushed off shortstop as his base fills out and he loses range. He has a strong arm, so third base is possible, but he'll have to further refine his skills there to stick. Even in the worst case scenario, where he is moved to the corner outfield, which is what Kevin Goldstein expects, his power potential puts him a cut above the rest. 13: Trevor Bauer/SP/Arizona Diamondbacks/1/17/91/ETA: 2012 Forecast notes: Oliver suggests he may be capable of a 3.5 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9, and I'm inclined to agree based on scouting reports. Scouting notes: March 2012: Bauer is an unconventional work horse who won't be long for the minors. He already saw time in Double-A in 2011, and should open the year as part of a stacked rotation at Triple-A Reno. The Diamondbacks rotation is full, but the back end has the potential for some turnover during the season. Joe Saunders and Josh Collmenter may have short leashes if Bauer and Tyler Skaggs toy with Triple-A hitters as I expect them to. Bauer has a chance to be an impact player in strikeouts right out of the gate. The rest of his fantasy contributions may be inconsistent as a rookie, but he has the deep repertoire and pitching acumen to keep his rookie clunkers to a minimum. October 2011: His unorthodox workout regimen and delivery may have caused some concern for teams in the draft, but the Diamondbacks didn't hesitate to select the UCLA Bruins' best pitcher last year, better than No. 1 overall selection Gerrit Cole. Jim Callis of Baseball America had him rated as the top college pitcher, and had him behind only high school flame-thrower Dylan Bundy when rating this draft class' arms. A right-handed pitcher, he throws his fastball with low-to-mid 90s velocity and can reach back and dial it up to 95-96 on occasion. According to Project Prospect, he throws both a two-seamer and a four-seamer, and both are plus pitches. All scouting outlets seem to agree he throws a plus breaking ball, with some referring to it as a curveball and others a slider. Baseball America suggests he throws both and even has a split finger in his tool belt. It is also universally agreed that he throws a change-up. Such a mix of pitches gives him the goods necessary to toy with hitters and go through lineups multiple times. Don't be scared off by his quirky, high-torque delivery. A little guy from the University of Washington has done okay for himself in San Francisco in spite of the same concerns. 14: Julio Teheran/SP/Atlanta Braves/2-9-90/ETA: Arrived Forecast notes: Strong walk rates should help him contribute in WHIP. ERA looks solid, but strikeout rate is nothing to write home about. Scouting notes: March 2012: Those who were “disappointed,” in Teheran's 2011 season need to look no further than his date of birth and level on the minor league ladder to realize he's just fine. A repeat of Triple-A could help him develop consistency in his breaking ball, and with it, help him increase his strikeout rate. He may not be awarded that opportunity as there is talk of him being in the mix with a host of others for a big league rotation spot. Don't be dissuaded by a rough start if that's the case. His plus to plus-plus fastball and change-up are already big league ready, and when he refines one of his breaking balls, either slider or curveball, he'll really take off. This is a very good prospect, and a very young one at that. Patience, young grasshopper, patience. October 2011: Just 20 years old this season and already made his major league debut. Strong Minor League Equivalents are supported by scouting reports that love his stuff, which includes a premium fastball and two secondary pitches, curveball and change-up, that project to be above average. Not a finished product, but ready for full time major league duty. The best of a crop of strong pitchers in the Braves system. 15: Tyler Skaggs/SP/Arizona Diamondbacks/7-13-91/ETA: 2012 Forecast notes: Breakout with his “stuff” in 2011 fully supported by his MLEs. Excellent control with better than average strikeout potential. Scouting notes: March 2012: Skaggs is an example of projectable velocity coming to fruition. Now that he throws his fastball in the low-90s regularly, some scouts suggest he has No. 1 starter potential. He hides the baseball well and that makes the velocity play up further. His curveball is a devastating knockout offering, and his change-up is average or better. Skaggs' control and command are top flight. Could someone explain to me why the Diamondbacks felt compelled to re-sign Joe Saunders? Skaggs will open in Triple-A, and he should get his first taste of the majors this season. October 2011: Skaggs was the prime get in the Dan Haren deal with the Angels. He's a southpaw with a fastball in the upper 80s to low 90s with a frame that may allow him to add a tick or two (though no in-season scouting reports around the 'net suggest that has been the case yet). He also throws a curveball that Baseball America graded as the best in the Diamondbacks system coming into the season, and a change-up. His strong play has moved him up prospect rankings and allowed him to surpass teammate Jarrod Parker in most onlookers' eyes. 16: Shelby Miller/SP/St. Louis Cardinals/10-10-90/ETA:2012 Forecast notes:: Breakout season, but walk rate needs further refinement. MLE of 4.3 BB/9 in 2010 regressed to 4.5 BB/9 this year. His strikeout rate remained elite while climbing levels at 8.4 K/9 this year. Scouting notes: March 2012: Part of the Thrice-P (Post Pujols Plan) in St. Louis, Miller will eventually help ease the pain of the loss of arguably the best hitter in baseball. Miller is a flame-throwing Texan who has breezed through the Cardinals system since making his pro debut in 2010. He struck out better than a batter an inning in 86.2 innings in Double-A, and is knocking on the door of the majors. Triple-A is next on tap, and a major league call-up in the summer or September is looming. October 2011: Miller is a young pitcher with front line starter stuff that supports his projected high strikeout rate at the major league level and current production in the minors. His best pitch is his heater, but it is supported by a 12-6 curveball and a developing change-up. Positive scouting reports from multiple outlets plus solid forecast. Toss in his current organization, which calls the National League and a home run-suppressing Busch Stadium home, and it is easy to envision him leap-frogging some of the pitchers in front of him. 17: Anthony Rendon/3B/Washington Nationals/6-6-90/ETA: 2013 Forecast notes:Projects to hit for a useful average and power while posting a strikeout rate not typically associated with a player with pop. Scouting notes: March 2012: If you're looking for a dark horse to top this list next year, Rendon fits the bill. Shoulder problems sapped him of much of his power his junior season, but when he's healthy, he stings the ball. He displays big league-ready plate discipline and strike zone recognition. Instead of playing in the AFL, the Nationals opted to have him continue rehab and strengthening exercises on his shoulder while receiving instruction. All signs appear good for a healthy 2012. The Nationals signed Ryan Zimmerman to an extension late in February, so Rendon will need to be developed away from the hot corner if he's going to be anything more than a blue chip trade prospect for the organization. It will be interesting to see how the Nationals brass handles the situation, but these things have a tendency to sort themselves out. Rendon is a talented player whom Jim Callis of Baseball America called the top amateur draft prospect in 2011. Thus far, he has taken ground balls at second base, shortstop and third base. Reports from the Nationals are that he looks good at each position, but it is hard for me to believe he'll be able to cut it at shortstop. If he can hack it, then his star will shine even brighter in fantasy baseball circles. October 2011: A strained shoulder caused Rendon to log a great deal of time at the designated hitter position for the Rice Owls this season and likely contributed to his drop in power production. Teams appeared to be scared off by his medicals as he slid to the Nationals at pick six. I'm not privy to his medical records, but find it encouraging that the Nationals were confident enough in him to snap him up as a top-10 selection. If there were no medical red flags he'd be higher on this list, though. With Ryan Zimmerman already at third base, Rendon may be forced to switch positions, with second base being a likely home. The Nationals may also opt to develop him as a third baseman, where his skills grade out as plus, and cross the bridge of determining what to do with him when they get there. Rendon sat atop Baseball America's pre-draft rankings, no small feat as many pundits viewed this draft as one of the more talented and deep in recent years. 18: Dylan Bundy/SP/Baltimore Orioles/11-15-92/ETA: 2013 Forecast notes: 2011 draftee out of high school without a current projection Scouting notes:March 2012: Bundy is widely considered the best prep pitcher drafted since Josh Beckett. He has a high ceiling, present- day plus stuff, and polish beyond his years. Keith Law has gone as far as to suggest he wouldn't be surprised to see Bundy reach Double-A this season. That would be one heck of an accomplishment for a 19-year-old in his first year of professional baseball. As you'd expect reading that ringing endorsement, Bundy is expected to zoom through the system. With some professional experience, and the graduation of Matt Moore forthcoming, the perfect storm could be brewing for Bundy to move into the top prospect pitcher spot the next time this list is updated. October 2011: Bundy rates 28th on this list based entirely on scouting reports, as he has no professional experience or forecast projection. He's has a power arm that throws at 94-96 mph and has touched 100 mph repeatedly. The most encouraging part of any Bundy scouting report regards his secondary offerings. His worst is a change-up that is described by most industry folks as average. His other secondary offerings are a plus power curveball and a plus cutter (Sickels describes the pitch as a slider, but Baseball America, Goldstein and Law describe it as a cutter). He can throw all his pitches for strikes, and is advanced for a prep pitcher. It's a leap of faith tossing a guy with no pro experience this high, but his arsenal sounds like it has all the makings of fantasy ace. 19: Ryan Lavarnway/C/Boston Red Sox/8-7-87/ETA: Arrived Forecast notes: While he won't derail fantasy team batting averages, he'll leave a bit to be desired. His power is excellent, and his MLEs have gotten better every year while moving up the minor league ladder. Scouting notes: March 2012: This it the point in the list where I'm obligated to remind readers this is a top 100 prospect list for fantasy baseball purposes. That means, his defense only has to be passable enough for him to stick at catcher, not win a Fielding Bible Award. Lavarnway would be able to get away with being a below average defender at a position often noted for defense because he can rake. He hits for power, and understands the value of taking a walk. His strikeout rates have been fairly good for a slugger, but he still isn't going to find himself in the running for any batting titles. The bat is big league ready, but the Red Sox are expected to open him in Triple-A, and carry Jarrod Saltalamacchia as the starting catcher with Kelly Shoppach serving as the backup. Shoppach has hit below .200 the last two seasons, and should serve as nothing more than a place holder until Lavarnway forces his way onto the Red Sox active roster. David Ortiz is under contract only through this season. That could leave the door open to Lavarnway splitting his time between designated hitter and catcher next year, after serving in a part time role the second half of this year. October 2011: Lavarnway's bat is tremendous, and if it can stick at catcher it is elite. When he was drafted, most felt he had nearly a zero percent shot to stick there, but he has worked hard and improved by most accounts. He still has a large number of detractors, but at least he now has a shot. The Red Sox dealt Tim Federowicz, a prospect catcher with a strong defensive reputation but no bat. That may be an indicator that the Red Sox have faith in Lavarnway sticking behind the plate in the short term. If Theo Epstein re-signs David Ortiz to serve as the team's designated hitter, Lavarnway's only immediate path to playing time, barring injury, will be as a catcher. 20: Xander Bogaerts/SS/Boston Red Sox/10-1-92/ETA: 2015 Forecast notes: He's a few years from being a big leaguer, but Oliver believes he should provide fantasy relevant power by 2015. Scouting notes: March 2012: First things first: Bogaerts is almost certain to outgrow the shortstop position. He has the arm for third base; the only question is whether he'll also outgrow the hot corner. His bat will play anywhere, though, and his full season debut was impressive. Bogaerts assaulted baseballs in Low-A, ripping 16 home runs, two triples, and 14 doubles in 296 plate appearances. That power production resulted in a robust .249 ISO. After sporting an outstanding walk and strikeout rates in Rookie Level ball in 2010, both were merely acceptable in 2011. He has plenty of time to improve both rates. He'll open next year as a 19 year old in High-A. If he continues denting bleacher seats, the Red Sox will be forced to decide how aggressively to challenge the youngster. I'm sure that's a decision they'd love to be in the position to have to make. 21: Jean Segura/SS/Los Angeles Angels/3-17-90/ETA: 2013 Forecast notes: MLEs regressed for a second consecutive year. Oliver doesn't like Segura as much as the scouting reports do. Scouting notes: March 2012: A torn hamstring derailed much of Segura's 2011 campaign. The most promising part of his abbreviated season is that he took to transitioning from second base to shortstop quite well—well enough that he'll continue to be developed there. He was healthy enough to play in the AFL, and is on target to open the year in Double-A. A healthy Segura hits ropes from pole to pole, and efficiently swipes bases in bunches (102 stolen bases with 25 caught stealing in his professional career). He'll occasionally flash a bit of home run power, but is more of a doubles hitter. The Angels' incumbent shortstop, Erick Aybar, is due to hit free agency at season's end. After a big offseason of spending, the club may not be able to afford to re-sign him to a long term deal. The decision could be a made a whole lot easier if Segura plays well, and perhaps most importantly, stays healthy in Double-A this year. October 2011: A player scouts like better than the Forecaster. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus noted in April that he looked good making the transition from second base to shortstop, something that would help his value greatly. He may fill out and lose range, leading to a move back to second base, but at either middle infield position he'll hold fantasy value if his tools develop. He should hit for average power, with an above-average hitting and and above-average speed if everything falls into place. 22: Jameson Taillon/SP/Pittsburgh Pirates/11-18-91/ETA: 2013 Forecast notes: Too small a sample size to draw firm conclusions, but he's a young flame-thrower who's striking hitters out while pounding the zone. Scouting notes: March 2012: The Pirates handled Taillon with kid gloves all year, keeping him on a strict innings and pitch count limit, and restricting his use of secondary pitches. His focus on fastball control and command could pay huge dividends going forward. Taillon already struck out a healthy number of batters without the benefit of leaning on his full repertoire often. We could be in store for an increase to his 9.42 K/9 this year when the Pirates loosen the reins on this thoroughbred. Armed with a mid-90s fastball that lights up radar guns even higher than that when he needs it, and two plus breaking balls, Taillon has an ace ceiling. His change-up lags behind his other pitches, but he's working on that. The rate at which his change-up develops could coincide directly with the rate at which he ascends the minor league ladder. If he proves as quick a study of his change-up as he did of commanding his fastball, he could move quickly. October 2011: Apparently the Pirates said they'd have taken Taillon over Harper if they'd had the top pick. Seems like that might be a creative way for the Pirates to give their 2010 draft pick a pat on the back, but it also speaks to Taillon's talent. He has a power arsenal with a blazing heater, a hammer curveball and a wipe-out slider. He has acclimated himself to pro baseball just fine with a tremendous 94:20 strikeout-to-walk rate in 88.2 innings in Single-A. As a pitcher drafted out of high school, and as part of a thrifty ballclub, it's likely the Pirates will bring him along slowly. 23: Gerrit Cole/SP/Pittsburgh Pirates/9-8-90/ETA: 2012 Forecast notes: Two good college seasons but walk rate leaves a bit to be desired. Scouting notes: March 2012: How can anyone not love Cole's stuff? He throws a heater that routinely lights up three digits on the radar gun, a plus-plus slider, and an average change-up that shows promise of developing into yet another dominating plus offering. The stuff has never been the problem. The problem is that Cole has been merely good, and not utterly dominant. In many ways, his play in the AFL is a microcosm of a college career that often left scouts scratching their heads. He pitched 15 innings, allowing five earned runs, walking four, and striking out 16. He was lights out in four of his five games pitched, but was taken deep by Nick Franklin in the Rising Stars game. He allowed three of his five earned runs, and four of his 14 base runners in that forgettable 2.1 inning start. Cole has the ceiling of an ace, and should he stay healthy, a reasonably high floor with his present pitch repertoire. A good professional debut in the minors should result in a September call-up. October 2011: Cole's stuff is much better than his performance in college (which was pretty darn good). He throws a four-seam fastball in the mid-90s and can touch a hair under 100 mph, and a two-seam fastball that's a few ticks slower. He also throws a plus slider and a change-up that some describe as plus-plus. Law goes as far as to lump it at the same level as Johan Santana's and Clay Buchholz's change-ups. Quite high praise. Even more interesting is pre-draft talk from Law as well as Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus that suggested Cole might be as good as, or perhaps even better in the majors than Stephen Strasburg. If that's the case, this ranking will look foolishly low. 24: Michael Choice/OF/Oakland A's/11-10-89/ETA: 2013 Forecast notes: Breakout 2010, but in 2011 walks and power have fallen back. He did reduce his strikeout rate, and is expected to hit for power. Scouting notes: March 2012: Many folks are nonplussed by the A's offseason. The rebuilding A's added to a position, outfield, that they seemed to have depth at in the upper minors. The true blue chip outfield prospect will begin the year at Double-A, though, and things will sort themselves out by the time he's ready for his major league debut. Choice is a slugging outfielder who is currently playing center field, but is expected to shift to a corner. He'll draw walks, and visit the seats often, but he'll also strike out regularly. He cut his strikeouts down from his sky high 35.5 percent rate in 2010 to 24.7 percent in 2011. Choice has a long swing, not unlike most power hitters, and with long swings come strikeouts. Promising for the future, though, in a small sample, was his stellar play in the AFL. He pared down his strikeout rate to 15.2 percent in 79 plate appearances. That reduced strikeout rate did not come at the expense of power or his walk rate, either. Even if the gains there don't carry over fully, Choice's power will make him a big time fantasy baseball prospect. He'll be challenged by Double-A pitching to begin his 2012 campaign. How he responds to facing advanced pitching and better breaking balls (something he has at times struggled with) will go a long way in determining his time table for advancement. October 2011: The epitome of Three True Outcomes, Choice has the feel of a younger version of Chris Carter. It would be nice to see him continue to cut back on one of the true outcomes (strikeouts), while increasing another (walks), but his power isn't in question at all. Parks lauds his power potential and bat speed, but notes that he'll always strike out a lot. Goldstein also gushes about the power. In fact, whatever outlet for prospect info you choose to turn to, the story is the same: His power is elite but he'll need to continue to fine-tune his hit tool to succeed at the higher levels of the minors and the majors. His reduction in strikeouts from last year to this year, and from pre-All-Star break to post-All-Star break, is enough reason to buy into Choice. 25: Rymer Liriano/OF/San Diego Padres/6-20-91/ETA: 2014 Forecast notes: MLEs aren't pretty, but they took a quantum leap in 2011 from his sub-Mendoza line 2010 MLE. He's a few seasons away, and would be aided greatly by cutting down on his strikeouts. Scouting notes: March 2012: Liriano is the top prospect in a very deep and revamped Padres farm sysem. Unlike some of the upper echelon Padres prospects, he is home grown and developed. He was a 2007 signee out of the Dominican Republic. The toolsy outfielder has been a slow study, but that shouldn't be concerning given his youth. In consecutive years he opened at a minor league level too advanced for his present skill set, and he struggled. That resulted in a demotions both years, and consequently, better play from Liriano at the lower level. Last season marked a big leap in the transition of tools to skills for him. He did a bit of everything in Low-A, hitting a juicy .319/.383/.499 with 12 home runs, eight triples, 30 doubles and a respectable 47:95 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Most impressive from a fantasy perspective, he stole 65 bases in 85 chances (76.5 percent success rate). Liriano epitomizes what it means to be a five tool player. He's a well built six-foot and 230 pound athlete who has a chance to be an impact player in all five standard fantasy hitting categories. The ETA above takes into consideration his struggles when moved too quickly, but if the light bulb that went on last year remains lit, he could press for a late 2013 big league debut. Posted by Josh Shepardson at 3:45am (3) Comments Dollar a day: Jose AltuveFive foot seven. 170 pounds. 21 years of age. Jose Altuve can barely drink legally—and can probably barely drink physically, too—yet has a chance to shine brightest on the Astros this summer. Altuve is a speedster with a knack for doing what speedsters do, which is speeding towards second after making it to first. In other words, he has the potential to steal 25 or more bases as soon as this year. Well said, I know. He ended 2010 with a below-league average showing in High-A, putting up a .276/.333/.457 triple-slash that had no one in the right mind even speculating about a September cup of tea, let alone a mid-season call-up. But then a well-rounded season split between High-A and Double-A produced video-game numbers: A .389 batting average. 24 steals and 40 strikeouts. A 1.017 OPS*. 10 home runs in 87 games*. I starred the last two numbers because—and I repeat—Jose Altuve is 5-foot-7 and 170 pounds. In other words, he is supposed to be a slap hitter, pure and simple. A look at his 50 percent groundball rate will tell you he is, but his minor league power is ignorable. Just look at the projections for his power this year. Bill James has him pinned for 10 homers. Steamer has him at nine. ZiPS projections have him at 10. Oliver—the best of all, I may add—has him at eight. So, let me synthesize. I am telling you the very small kid man at second base, who will likely steal 25 bases and challenge for a .300 batting average, will actually clear the fences more than a few times. And yes, I am telling you he’s available for a dollar. Theft! Posted by Nick Fleder at 4:39am (10) Comments Roto Chat this Sunday, March 11Posted by Nick Fleder at 7:17am (0) Comments Monday, March 12, 2012Second look: Top 20 fantasy catchers for 2012Over the next week or so, in an attempt to catch up on fantasy season, I am going to do a top 20 or so list by position for the players who will either be eligible at that position under Yahoo! default standards to start the season or who are projected to gain eligibility within the first month of the season (e.g., Miguel Cabrera and Jesus Montero). The rules of eligibility for Yahoo fantasy leagues: The following conditions apply to a player's position eligibility: ESPN imposes a more rigorous default position eligibility standard (e.g., 20 games played at the position last season, 10 games played in the present season), so you may have to do additional research if you play ESPN fantasy to verify that players listed in these articles are in fact "position eligible" in your league. These rankings are based on 5x5 standard Yahoo! Roto leagues. Rankings are not based on real-life value but fantasy value. Hence, players like Juan Pierre tend to have value for you closer to what Kenny Williams is willing to pay him in real life. Projections listed below are courtesy of Brian Cartwright's Oliver projection system. I recommend that you purchase a subscription, as the pre- and in-season updates are an invaluable fantasy tool. My rankings are not exclusively based on Oliver's projections, however. Rankings are primarily determined based on total production by category, balance in production, and scarcity of production level. Because I am ranking players by position, positional flexibility is not taken into account in my rankings (though you should absolutely consider positional flexibility at the draft board). Tiers represent groups of relatively fungible players, guys who if you traded me the guy at the bottom of that tier for the top guy would not require you to add "too much" value to pull off a trade. In other words, guys within a tier are relatively easy to trade for one another. If you have any specific questions about my rankings, please post them in the comments. Here are my top 20 fantasy catchers for 2012. TIER 1 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 1 Mike Napoli TEX .268/.349/.509 2 Brian McCann ATL .274/.354/.473 3 Carlos Santana CLE .252/.364/.468 TIER 2 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 4 Buster Posey SFG .286/.354/.449 5 Joe Mauer MIN .318/.391/.467 TIER 3 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 6 Miguel Montero ARI .275/.339/.441 7 Jesus Montero* SEA .282/.338/.491 8 Matt Wieters BAL .258/.323/.407 9 Alex Avila DET .258/.346/.429 10 Geovany Soto CHC .236/.327/.408 TIER 4 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 11 J.P. Arencibia TOR .220/.273/.416 12 Wilson Ramos WAS .265/.311/.430 13 Devin Mesoraco CIN .250/.313/.449 TIER 5 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 14 Yadier Molina STL .284/.340/.401 15 Salvador Perez KCR .263/.292/.386 16 Russell Martin NYY .244/.334/.363 17 Kurt Suzuki OAK .253/.306/.397 TIER 6 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 18 Jarrod Saltalamacchia BOS .222/.284/.387 19 Jonathan Lucroy MIL .257/.314/.372 20 Chris Iannetta ANA .225/.342/.399 Tier 1 analysisYou'll always feel safe with a tier-one catcher, but, Mike Napoli arguably aside, how confident overall are you with paying top dollar for a top-tier catcher when the most you can reasonably expect from him is likely a high of a .270 batting average, maybe 25 home runs, 60-ish runs and hopefully 70-plus RBI? Between injury propensity and the constant need to rest, catchers are a risky and relatively lackluster position of production. Aside from closers, if there's any position to ditch, it's catchers. The big names will costs you a premium price over the return; unless you have extra money to blow, give drafting a top-flight catcher serious reconsideration. That said, I doubt the three names in this tier, or their order, are very controversial. Napoli won't hit .300 again, but 2012 might be the first year his team finally believes in him enough to give him regular, consistent playing time to start the season. Of all the catchers on the list, Napoli and Carlos Santana are the only ones I feel confident projecting for 25-plus home runs next year. Both players have their batting average risks—and never let a catcher's low BABIP fool you; it's not just bad luck when you get thrown out on more routine plays when you squat all day—but at least a .260 average won't kill you (especially since it'll come with a lot fewer at-bats than a guy like Ichiro Suzuki or even Carlos Pena). Both Napoli and Santana should help out pretty well on the OBP side, as well. Santana is probably the better bargain for 2012, likely to cost up to $10 less, but I doubt the difference in their end-of-season production will be that great. I always love Brian McCann, and he was great when healthy last season, but at this point in his career, he is what he is: a .275 or so hitter with 20-to-25 home run power, modest high 60s run production, 80 RBI potential, and a handful of stolen bases thrown in for good measure. McCann produces at a consistent clip every year, year in and year out, and consistency at that level for a catcher is rare, especially when you consider he's a middle-of-the-order hitter for the Braves. Tier 2 analysisTier two is compromised of a pair of players with the potential to put up numbers on par with McCann/Santana/Napoli but with clear risks that keep their floors from putting them on par. Joe Mauer is not a model of health. Even with consistent DH/first base reps every week that should bolster his playing time and the value of his batting-average contributions, there is no guarantee he will/can stay healthy. I have now owned Mauer in two seasons—2007 and 2011—and I have sworn him off forever more. How much stock do you want to put into a catcher with modest-at-best "low teens" home run power whose biggest assets in standard leagues is his batting average talents when his knees just won't stay healthy? When Mauer isn't hitting .330, he looks an awful lot like a Yadier Molina clone. Buster Posey, likewise, has two major risks. The first is coming back from injury/surgery. So far, all signs on that front seem positive. The second risk is that Posey just is not the player he teased us with in 2010. Last preseason, I noted: I ranked Buster Posey below Victor Martinez because I am concerned that much of Posey's 2010 power was a "fluke." A look at Posey's monthly splits reveals that his power bursts were largely limited to two months (July/September). In fact, his July power output was largely relegated to a five/six day span between the fifth and 10th of the month. I think Posey's .290+ AVG potential is certainly legit, but his power leaves me with questions..."Posey has done nothing since to overcome that worry, and last year's .105 ISO and four home runs over his first 45 games hardly did anything to dispel my concerns. Posey's posted a consistent ISO right around .200 at every level in the minor leagues, and he did the same in 2010 for the Giants, but how often does a .200 ISO directly translate at the major league level? Consider me continuously skeptical. i think the batting average is still legit, and his floor is much higher than the guys in the lower tier, but let's temper out expectations for the return of Posey. Oliver projects a .285/.353/.442 line (.795 OPS) for Posey this season, with only 13 homers per 400 or so at-bats. I'd likely take the over on that, but not by much. A .290-.295 batting average with 15-18 home runs is my best guess. Tier 3 analysisPretty much every guy in this tier is the same mold of player with roughly the same expected type of production. The rankings in this tier, then, are by each player's floor. Miguel Montero is probably the best bet of the group to turn in a McCann-like season and not be a total bust for you if he does not. McCann gets tier one status, however, because he's a production machine whereas Montero's breakout year was just last season. I expect Montero to do just about what Posey should do, with a little more power upside and a noticeably lower batting average. Once he qualifies for the position (it could take up to a month, with him expected to catch only 1-2 days per week), Jesus Montero could be a top-five catcher this year. He could even be a top-three catcher by season end, and he is the most likely person on this list to be the No. 1 overall catcher outside tier one. So why the low rating? With fewer than 100 plate appearances to his name, a lot of what I expect Jesus Montero to do is still mere projection. His brief showing at the end of September last year was impressive, and we all know how the now-only-22 year old pummeled minor league pitching, but can he sustain that level of production at Safeco Park? Only time will tell, but I'm betting yes. If I had ranked the younger Montero in my top five, I would have surely been ostracized in the comments and looked a total fool if he busted. So consider his "relatively low" ranking a CYA kinda thing that acknowledges the floors of rookies can get awful low sometimes. Was Matt Wieters' second half legit, or should we be buying into his overall line? Or is more of 2009 and 2010 and the first half of 2011 to be expected? This is why Wieters can't be ranked any higher. His floor is still pretty high, though, and considering the pedigree, there is plenty of reason to buy into the breakout theory. What I said about Wieters can also apply to Alex Avila, only without the pedigree. Avila's power fell off the map in July, rebounded in August, and then dipped again in September. Those swings raise serious questions about Avila's ability to repeat his 20-home-run power in 2012. A greater sample size will be necessary to determine where his true batting talents lie, for now making him more of a risk with more of a floor (see his 2010 production) that most of the other guys in this group. For what it's worth, Oliver thinks Avila has legit "Matt Kemp power" (a term of art invented by yours truly several years ago). Last, but certainly not least, this tier rounds out with my boy Geovany Soto. I own his jersey, and he seems to hit a home run or multiple run-scoring double every game I attend, but Soto's inconsistencies are too hard for me to ignore, even with my homer-glasses. Will he hit .270-plus or around .220? At least Soto's power has been consistently legit save for a shoulder-injury-related fluke of a season in 2009. Worrisome are Soto's steps back in the strikeout and walks department last year after consistent strides forward since 2008. On the bright side, Soto seems to alternate great seasons in even-numbered years with disappointing ones in odd-numbered years, so 2012 could be the rebound year for jersey No. 18! Tier 4 analysisTier four is comprised of an interesting mix of players. By and large, Arencibia is a one-tool player. His walk rate is slightly below average, at best, and he has Carlos Pena batting average upside with 144 strikeouts in 523 career at-bats. Additionally, he is not a fast runner and has been caught stealing (one time) as many times as he has been successful (again, a meager one time). But man, that one tool, power, is totally legit and enough to make you overlook the rest of his flaws when you consider catcher's batting averages are less important than players at other positions. (It's an at-bat thing). Arencibia is almost a lock for 20 home runs with consistent playing time in 2012, and 25 is surely not out of the question. Wilson Ramos does not seem to have a whole lot of upside, but at the same time he doesn't seem to have a whole lot of downside. A .270 batting average with 10 home run as the floor and a high teens home run ceiling is pretty solid catcher production, and it makes Ramos just barely mixed-league starting catcher relevant. Devin Mesoraco has the pedigree to rank among the guys listed in tier three, but with less of a pedigree than Jesus Montero and a less-than-successful first cup of tea last year, Mesoraco's floor is clearly much lower than anyone else in tier three. Consider further that, even with Yasmani Grandal out of the picture, Dusty Baker still hates his rookies, and you can see Ryan Hanigan easily sticking around long enough to zap Mesoraco's 2012 relevance despite "Geovany Soto in his prime"-like upside. Mesoraco is a much better play in dynasty leagues, where 2012 is the ideal "getting in on the ground floor"-type pick with the hope to see returns in the second half of the season. Take my word and don't draft Mesoraco as your primary guy. Stash him with the hopes he makes his way to starting catcher status by the end of May. Tier 5 analysisThis is the tier of players where you cringe with risk-averse fear if they are your No. 1 catcher, but you feel comfortable enough if they are your No. 2 catcher. Yadier Molina leads the pack with a modest ceiling but high floor. A useful batting average and potential double digit home runs is better "in the bag" production to draft than hoping for more while planning for much less. Salvador Perez seems like a Molina clone with a little more power upside and a lot less track record. Perez has the potential to hit in the mid-.280s with double digit home runs, but will he? Oliver's a bit bearish on Perez, but a mid-.260s batting average with 10 home runs per 500 plate appearances is pretty solid for a second catcher. With no one really "waiting in the wings" for the Royals at the catcher position and the Royals projecting for another season middling in the AL Central at best, Perez should have a moderately long leash (unlike Mike Aviles last year). Russell Martin and Kurt Suzuki are about the same player in my mind. Potential double-digit power, .250-.260 projected batting averages, and five-plus stolen-base potential if/when healthy. But health is a huge issue for these guys. Both are about the same age, so there's no "youth edge" between then, but Martin's higher perpensity for running on the basepaths gives him the edge over Suzuki. Martin's always been an overrated catcher, but now that most people are so down on him, if he can stay healthy, he could be a sleeper to be borderline mixed-league relevant in 2012. Perpetual injury issues keep him outside the top 15, however. Tier 6 analysisLast, but not least, we have the dregs—guys with modest ceilings but poor floors. Jarrod Saltalamacchia has inconsistent flashes of potential at times, showing us why he once had the kind of hype that Miguel Montero had coming up, but too often he does too little to be relied on consistently. Salty could make a nice streaming option if you believe in riding the streak. Jonathan Lucroy has Yadier Molina-like upside, with Salvador Perez-like downside. He likely won't do much of anything, but at least he won't totally kill you. To me, Lucroy is the quintessential midseason stopgap for those silly enough to draft Mauer. Chris Iannetta is a lot like Saltalamacchia, but it's been a while since his last useful flashes of brilliance. Can a change of scenery help? Moving away from Coors is never a good thing for a power-hitter, and if Napoli is a cautionary tale, we know Mike Scioscia is probably not the best manager to bank your starting fantasy catcher on. As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below. Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:13am (12) Comments This week in (fantasy) baseball 3/5-3/11It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a regular basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below. Yanks' Robertson hurt while taking out recyclablesThe good news is the Yankees’ most valuable setup man suffered only a bone bruise while taking out the recyclables last week, not a ligament tear, bone fracture or the dreaded Lisfranc sprain that torpedoed Chien-Ming Wang’s career in the Bronx. The bad news is the right-hander, who turns 27 in early April, is wearing a protective boot and is on crutches and will lose significant spring action as he gets ready for the 2012 season. The team will understandably be cautious with the pitcher considered the front-runner to succeed Mariano Rivera, who has hinted at retiring after this season. In the meantime, Rafael Soriano will assume the role of eighth-inning man until Robertson’s return, which could be in time for Opening Day. Robertson’s injury could have a profound impact on Phil Hughes’ fantasy value, as the Yankees could consider moving the 25-year-old (former?) phenom to the bullpen if more manpower is needed in the late innings. The Yankees, after all, have four rotation spots locked down in the forms of CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda and Ivan Nova, and Freddy Garcia has looked good so far in early spring action. After reporting to camp out of shape last year, a noticeably trimmer Hughes arrived in Florida early this year, and reached 93 on the radar gun multiple times during his one-and-two-thirds-inning appearance last week. Certainly, a healthy Hughes would be the favorite to crack the Yankees’ rotation, with Garcia then moving to long relief. And it goes without saying that any starting pitcher on the mighty Yankees carries significant fantasy value, as Hughes did in 2010, when a pedestrian ERA and WHIP didn’t stop him from compiling 18 wins. But his fate, along with Garcia’s, resides with Robertson’s recovery. Let’s see how long it takes for one of baseball’s top setup men to recover, and for the Yankees to rush one of their most valuable players back into major league action. Hart recovering well from knee surgeryManager Ron Roenicke told Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Saturday that Corey Hart is walking around without crutches, which is an encouraging sign considering the right-fielder underwent surgery last week to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee. Hart, who turns 30 later this month, is expected to miss a month after the surgery, though he still has an outside shot to be ready for Opening Day. In his absence, Norichika Aoki and Carlos Gomez could pick up additional playing time, while Mat Gamel is now seeing at-bats from the fifth spot in the batting order. Sore shoulder shuts down MarcumShaun Marcum is dealing with shoulder stiffness, which forced Milwaukee to shut down the right-hander early last week. Roenicke refused to rule out the possibility that Marcum, 30, will return to the rotation by Opening Day, though it remains to be seen how much playing time he’ll miss in March. If this sounds familiar, that’s because Marcum was bothered by a sore shoulder during last year’s spring training as well, except he was able to recover well enough to go 6-2 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.047 WHIP over 2011’s first two months. As fantasy owners keep an eye on Marcum’s progress, backup plans include Marco Estrada, who went 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA in seven starts last year, along with prospects Wily Peralta and Michael Fiers. Towel turmoil cuts Price start shortWho knew toweling off between innings could carry such physical risk? In what has to be regarded as one of the strangest spring training injuries of all time, David Price strained his neck Wednesday as he mopped off sweat during his first start of the spring, forcing him to cut short his appearance. Fortunately, the injury doesn’t seem all that serious, and Price isn’t projected to miss his next start. Chris Carpenter sidelined with neck issueAs the Cardinals welcomed Adam Wainwright’s two scoreless innings on Friday, his first start in more than a year since undergoing Tommy John surgery, the team revealed that co-ace Chris Carpenter is suffering from a bulging cervical disc that will force him to miss his debut start. Joe Strauss of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports Carpenter’s spring schedule has not yet been set by the team. For Cardinals fans, the good news is the injury is less severe than a nerve issue, which the team feared given Carpenter’s injury history. But it will be interesting to see if the news has any impact on the 36-year-old starter’s fantasy value among anxious owners. Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:10am (5) Comments Tuesday, March 13, 2012Second look: Top 20 fantasy shortstops for 2012Over the next week or so, in an attempt to catch up on fantasy season, I am going to do a top 20 or so list by position for the players who will either be eligible at that position under Yahoo! default standards to start the season or who are projected to gain eligibility within the first month of the season (e.g., Miguel Cabrera and Jesus Montero). The rules of eligibility for Yahoo fantasy leagues: The following conditions apply to a player's position eligibility: ESPN imposes a more rigorous default position eligibility standard (e.g., 20 games played at the position last season, 10 games played in the present season), so you may have to do additional research if you play ESPN fantasy to verify that players listed in these articles are in fact "position eligible" in your league. These rankings are based on 5x5 standard Yahoo! Roto leagues. Rankings are not based on real-life value but fantasy value. Hence, players like Juan Pierre tend to have value for you closer to what Kenny Williams is willing to pay him in real life. Projections listed below are courtesy of Brian Cartwright's Oliver projection system. I recommend that you purchase a subscription, as the pre- and in-season updates are an invaluable fantasy tool. My rankings are not exclusively based on Oliver's projections, however. Rankings are primarily determined based on total production by category, balance in production, and scarcity of production level. Because I am ranking players by position, positional flexibility is not taken into account in my rankings (though you should absolutely consider positional flexibility at the draft board). Tiers represent groups of relatively fungible players, guys who if you traded me the guy at the bottom of that tier for the top guy would not require you to add "too much" value to pull off a trade. In other words, guys within a tier are relatively easy to trade for one another. If you have any specific questions about my rankings, please post them in the comments. Here are my top 20 fantasy shortstops for 2012. TIER 1 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 1 Troy Tulowitzki COL .302/.370/.543 2 Hanley Ramirez MIA .295/.369/.457 TIER 2 Rank Player Name Team Oliver Projected Triple-Slash 3 Jose Reyes MIA .302/.348/.442 TIER 3 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 4 Starlin Castro CHC .308/.345/.426 5 Asdrubal Cabrera CLE .270/.324/.403 TIER 4 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 6 Elvis Andrus TEX .269/.333/.344 7 Jimmy Rollins PHI .253/.315/.387 TIER 5 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 8 J.J. Hardy BAL .254/.303/.412 9 Derek Jeter NYY .281/.340/.374 10 Alexei Ramirez CHW .267/.313/.391 TIER 6 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 11 Dee Gordon LAD .267/.304/.333 TIER 7 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 12 Erick Aybar ANA .270/.310/.375 13 Jhonny Peralta DET .264/.317/.406 TIER 8 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 14 Emilio Bonifacio MIA .272/.330/.351 15 Stephen Drew ARI .262/.326/.414 TIER 9 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 16 Tyler Pastornicky ATL .260/.302/.358 17 Zack Cozart CIN .247/.298/.395 18 Ian Desmond WAS .264/.305/.381 19 Yunel Escobar TOR .274/.348/.379 20 Alcides Escobar KCR .252/.287/.340 You'll notice that my shortstop rankings have a lot of narrowly filled tiers. That is because the talent pool at shortstop is thin and drops off exponentially. Unlike others, I do not play the "empty tier" ranking game when "the next" tier is a major step below the previous tier. I recommend reading the analysis by tier to glean any major talent gaps between tiers. Tier 1Oh how the mighty have fallen. Shortstop was a relatively robust fantasy position a decade ago. Even through the mid-2000's, you had a healthy regiment of productive players—many of whom you'll find, no longer as productive as they used to be, ranked below. Remember 2006? You had a young Hanley Ramirez, and up-and-coming Jose Reyes, a still productive Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada, and others lighting up the box scores. Nowadays, unless you get a top three name, you've gotta worry. And even then, you can't discount the serious risk of injury. For the first time ever since writing about fantasy, Hanley Ramirez is no longer my top shortstop. Once a seemingly perennial threat to hit .310+ with 180 runs scored plus RBI and 60 or more stolen bases plus home runs, it seems like Hanley fans are praying for .300/20/20 with a respectable R+RBI campaign. From the reports I have read, Hanley's back issues and shoulder issues have healed, and he's shown up to camp absolutely ripped. That should support his recent strides towards being a legitimate 25+ home run hitter, but what will it mean for his ever-declining stolen base totals? Only time will tell. A healthy Hanley should be able to turn in an elite .295/25/25 campaign, and there's no reason to think he can't reach the 180 runs plus RBI plateau with a reinvigorated offense that includes Jose Reyes and hopefully, barring demotion, Logan Morrison. Injury risk still exists, however, and I doubt I can recommend paying upwards of $40 for a player no longer guaranteed to crack the top 30—even with positional scarcity considered. Hanley's problem has never been his ceiling—it's an issue of his floor. That floor is still pretty darn high—high enough to merit ranking in the first tier along with Tulo—but not high enough, especially with declining stolen bases and increasing injuries in recent seasons, to push him over the edge as the No. 1 overall shortstop for 2012. He certain has No. 1 shortstop potential, however. Just do not overpay for the risk inherent. On the flipside, Troy Tulowitzki has continued to battle some form of injury throughout his career, but he has not let injury slow him down since his sophomore campaign. Despite barely playing in 85 percent of the Rockies' games over the past three seasons (even less over the past two), Tulo has managed to turn in an aggregate 89 home runs and 40 stolen bases over that span while averaging a batting average over .300, reaching the 80 run plateau in each season and accumulating at least 90 RBI each of those seasons as well. Tulo is downright elite, and if he could get to the 150 games plateau this season, 30 home runs and double digit stolen bases are easily in the cards—and even if he only gets to 140 games again this year, there is no reason he can't reach that plateau anyway. Tulo has a very high floor despite minor injury concerns, and his "100% healthy" ceiling is strong enough to make him the number one overall shortstop heading into 2012—even if he projects for a similar batting average and slightly less home runs plus stolen bases than Hanley Ramirez. Tier 2Reyes being in his own, separate tier should go without explanation. He's clearly light years ahead of Starlin Castro and company in terms of fantasy value, but he is too inconsistent an injury risk to legitimately belong in tier number one. Reyes' stolen base prowess has never been questioned, but he needs to be healthy and get on base to steal and steal successfully. Note first Reyes' walk rate by season starting with his first full season in 2005: 3.7%, 7.5%, 10.1%, 8.7%, 10.8%, 5.1%, 7.3%. Further consider that only once has Reyes had consecutive seasons of batting averages within 0.015 points of each other (in 2009 he hit .279 and in 2010, he hit .280). Reyes has posted an OBP above .350 in 6 of the past 7 season, but his inconsistent on base rate, paired with hamstring injuries that have limited him to 295 combined games played over the past three seasons, have lead to stolen base totals of 11, 30 and 39. Those are still incredibly useful, elite stolen base numbers, but the combination of injuries that affect his key tool and ability to play the game at all means that while elite stolen bases are possible, so is an injury-derailed campaign or an underwhelming season based on what it is going to take to acquire Reyes on draft day. This is not to say that Reyes is not a candidate to return to his 15+ home run, 60+ stolen base days—he certainly isn't. But like Carl Crawford, with Reyes, you're always paying for the upside because someone is always going to like him for it and because he is a brand name commodity. Reyes' floor is surprisingly low for a top tier player considering his injury propensity. In fact, let's go back to that Carl Crawford analogy of yesteryear for the moment. I think it is very fitting. Jose Reyes is the Carl Crawford of shortstop—a guy with loads of potential that you're always paying for, despite plenty of risk that he won't get there. Tier 3Tier three represents a huge dropoff from tier two. Whereas Reyes is reasonably capable of elite 50-60 stolen bases plus home run production (albeit at a likely overinflated price), it's a stretch to say that Castro or Cabrera have a ceiling of even 35. Castro took some modest strides forward in the power department last year, reaching the double digit home run plateau, but there's no real indication yet at this point that he'll be capable of more than 15 in his prime. Despite being a legitimate .300+ batting average guy who could legitimately compete for plenty of future batting titles, his career walk rate of 5.2 percent is going to severely limit his stolen base value which is arguably its highest potential in Castro's younger seasons. Let's be honest. Castro's .040 isolate discipline is downright pitiful. That means his potential to reach the 30 stolen base plateau and turn in a 40+ home run plus stolen base season is a serious question mark. But hey, when pickins are slim, you can't complain too much. Castro's ceiling is pretty high given his age and production to date and while last year's step backward in the walks department was a disappointment, there is always the pipe dream that a Cubs prospect can learn to walk...right? .300/12/25 is totally in the cards, but like his stolen base totals, Castro's runs totals will be contingent on his on base rate (in addition to how the Cubs' offense falls into place in 2012). Asdrubal Cabrera is a solid shortstop option that, before 2011, never got enough credit for his potential. .280/15/15 capable shortstops are not easy to come by (especially in the American League) and although 15 stolen bases or home runs is hardly going to light any worlds on fire, balanced above average production across the board like that is a seriously underrated fantasy commodity. Diversified players are easier to replace when they go down with injury, and supplement when they disappoint. That might be a pessimistic way to view fantasy, but a wise man once told me to always plan for the worst and hope for the best. Plus, injuries are not exactly a non-factor in fantasy. Be careful not to draft Cabrera in 2012 for the wrong reasons, however. Anyone expecting another 25 home run campaign, or much power growth above that is guaranteed to be sorely disappointed. Consider Cabrera's isolated power and plate appearance totals by month last year: .175/123, .245/114, .171/18, .170/105, .195/77. In the context of a career .133 ISO and pre-2011 career high ISO of .138, the "breakout," if legit is probably closer to the .170 ISO mark (approximately 18 home run potential) than the 25 bombs he blasted last year. Not convinced? Consider his home run profile. 15 of his 25 home runs (60 percent) were "just enough" homers. Only Miguel Cabrera, with 16, had more "just enough" home runs than Asdrubal Cabrea. Whereas Miggy has a track record of power and whereas Miggy averaged 396.7 feet per home run last season, Cabrera's average home run distance was 383.2 feet. Draft Asdrubal for the safety net that .280/15/15 provides. Don't draft him expecting top 50, or likely even top 100, overall production. Tier 4Andrus' ceiling is arguably as high as Asdrubal Cabrera and Castro, but his inefficient stolen base rate could lead to fewer stolen bases overall. Ron Washington has not been afraid to apply the red light to his speedsters over the past two seasons, and Andrus only accumulated two net steals in the second half. Andrus also saw his walk rate dip last year after major strides forward in 2010. That's a serious risk worth noting for a guy whose value almost entirely derives from his stolen base totals. .280+/40+ is still in the cards, though. Once upon a time, Jimmy Rollins was a top tier shortstop. While he still has plenty of defensive value that is totally irrelevant to fantasy, Rollins' ceiling at this point is pretty modest and his floor is pretty low. Now that we can all agree that Rollins is not a legitimate 30/30 candidate, his draft day value has finally approached his actual value. A 15/30 campaign is certainly realistic, but it's likely to come with a negative .250 batting average and injury risk. And Rollins has seen injury zap his playing time in three of the past four years. Rollins could easily end up among the top five shortstops by the end of the year if he repeats his 2011 performance, but there's a lot of "if" floating around that statement. Tier 5J.J. Hardy's always been an intriguing player, and despite ranking him in the lower portion of my shortstop rankings last year, I cautioned he was a name to watch with potential. And he delivered on that potential. Can he sustain it again for 2012? Talent has never been a question for Hardy. He has legitimate power when healthy and "on," but ever since the beginning of the second half of 2008, he's either been "off" or injured. 2011 was a huge return to form, but it remains uncertain what level of production Hardy can sustain in 2012 for fantasy owners. A look at Hardy's month-to-month splits positively indicates consistency over "burst production," which is always a great sign that a player can/will retain prior year gains, but whether Hardy can stave off injury next year is a serious question. Furthermore, it was never really clear what distinguished Hardy's first half of 2008 from his second half. Yips? Unspoken injury? I am cautiously optimistic about Hardy for 2012. By the middle of 2011, people were pretty much done with Derek Jeter and the $15 I paid for him last year at the draft table in the THT Fantasy league looked like an absolute joke. But give the Captain some credit. He ended the season with respectable, Jeterian numbers. He batted .297 (.327 in the second half) with a .355 overall OBP (.383 in the second half) with 16 stolen bases and 6 home runs. His runs total was a bit lower than hoped for, at 84, but his RBI total (61) was more or less par for the post-2007 Jeterian course. No one legitimately expected more than a .300 batting average, 5-10 home run, 15-20 stolen base, 100 run campaign, and Jeter delivered, more or less, on those expectations (albeit on the lower end with plenty of runs scored disappointment). Now I am not going to look too far into his second half, but Jeter's overall line is about comparable to what I am expecting in 2012—hopefully with maybe 10+ more runs scored. Jeter is a shell of his former fantasy self, but he's still a top 10 shortstop that is the model of consistency and expectations at this point in his career. Jeter will provide a little all around by season end, and that's certainly worth something. Alexei Ramirez has a higher ceiling than Jeter at at this point in their careers, but where did he go in the second half of 2011? Will Ramirez ever return to the 20 home run power with above average batting average production he flashed in his rookie season? No clue. That's why he's ranked lower than Jeter—especially with the stolen base drop off last year. Tier 6Dee Gordon is pure speed. He's a modern day Juan Pierre with positional scarcity on his side. In 131 games in A-ball in 2009, Flash Gordon swiped 73 bases. Gordon is not an exceptionally talented hitter, however, and since he has a deathly allergy to walking (3.0% in the majors last year, 5.8% in Triple-A last year), his value is going to be entirely contingent on his BABIP luck. With lightning speed (7.7 speed score!), that's a bet I'd be willing to take. But batting average (a vicarious representation of his OBP potential) is always a risky stat to bank on -- especially for young, unproven players. Thankfully Gordon does not strikeout a lot, and slaps the ball on the ground a lot (56 percent groundball rate). Like Hardy, I'm cautiously optimistic. If he hits .290 or higher next season, Dee Gordon could be a huge breakout player. If he hits below .280, he's going to provide empty stolen bases. With zero power, a less than exciting MLE, and no RBI prospects, I can't seriously consider ranking Gordon any higher. But don't let that fool you; I always tend to undervalue pure speed and Gordon could easily make this ranking look too conservative with a good enough batting average. Tier 7Risk plus moderate potential abound here. Erick Aybar offers "Derek Jeter power" with 20-30 stolen bases and the potential for a respectable batting average to boot in a great offensive line up. And he's only 28. But until I see him do it again, the most I'm going to project Aybar for is a .270/7/25 campaign with R/RBI potential contingent upon lineup slotting. Jhonny Peralta, on the other hand, is a guy whose shown he can do it while demonstrating he's can't necessarily be relied on to follow through. Since being traded to the Tigers a year and half ago, Peralta certainly returned to his 2005-2008 form last year, but 2009 and 2010 are too recent in memory to forget. Especially when you consider that the bulk of Peralta's "return to power" came in May and June (the other months resembled 2009-2010). Still, with shortstop such a shallow position, Peralta's move off the hot corner gives him plenty of mixed-league relevant value. Begrudgingly, someone is going to have to take this risk, but it could be worse I suppose... Tier 8Is Emilio Bonifacio seriously bona fide? He's always had a knack for speed, but his 2009 and 2010 combined output, over 200 games played, is still a less than enthralling 33 stolen bases (9 caught stealing), one home run, 100 runs scored and 37 RBI with a sub-.260 batting average. So color me skeptical when that player hits .296 with 40 stolen bases and 5 home runs over 152 games. Still, that kind of upside is about as good as it gets once Peralta is off the board... Stephen Drew used to always be one of those guys a few people in every league inevitably liked as a sleeper—but the best season of his career, 2008, was really only Jhonny Peraltaian at best. Can we finally acknowledge Drew for what he is: an inconsistent batting average risk with teens home run power and modest "first baseman like" stolen base contributions. With injuries looming, the floor is too low to call Drew mixed league relevant, but as a $1 late round flier, Drew could certainly payoff as a bargain buy if he's healthy as a middle infielder or mid-season trade chip. Tier 9I can't really decide who I like more for deeper mixed and NL-only leagues: Tyler Pastornicky or Zack Cozart. Cozart certainly has the higher pedigree and more balanced offering (15/15 capable), but his batting average potential is certainly negative. Pastornicky, on the other hand, offers Jeter-like power with 30 stolen base potential. I personally see Pastornicky as a more legit Bonafacio-type for 2012 without any track record to back up that statement. Pastornicky's going to probably bat 8th, however, and that's usually a death bell for fantasy relevance. Do you think the Braves regret trading Yunel Escobar yet? Speaking of which, his .280/15/5 upside when healthy can't be ignored—especially in AL-only leagues. Yunel Escobar could be a solid, cheap handcuff for Jose Reyes. There's just no real upside at all here, though, which is why Escobar is ranked so low. Ian Desmond arguably offers 30 stolen base plus home run potential, but he is a huge batting average liability that does not walk very much at all. Desmond's stolen base totals last year were also feast or famine throughout the season, so H2H players need to be wary. Lastly, we have Alcides Escobar. He's got massive stolen base potential, right? Well he does not walk and so far has not hit for average either, so his actual fantasy relevance outside AL-only leagues is highly questionable at this point in the game. Guys who just missed out on being ranked include Mike Aviles (playing time concerns) and Cliff Pennington (a really poor man's Elvis Andrus). Aviles could arguably be a top 15 shortstop this year if consistent enough playing time falls his way. As always, leave the love/hate in the comments section below. Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 12:22am (12) Comments The Verdict: fantasy baseball league constitutionsOver 200 years ago, the Founding Fathers of the United States of America collaborated on the most important document in this country's history. No, I am not talking about Kris Humphries and Kim Kardashian's marriage certificate. Of course I am referring to the U.S. Constitution, which is the foundation for the laws that we live by every day. The Constitution places checks and balances on all branches of government so that no one individual has absolute power. Granted, there is quite a bit of ambiguity and controversy interpreting the intent and meaning behind the words in the Constitution. But it still remains the basis behind our democracy and of maintaining some semblance of stability within society. The U.S. Constitution contained a Preamble that is famously quoted and recited. Because fantasy baseball is arguably just as important as democracy, I thought I would modify the Preamble to apply to fantasy baseball as we know it: We the People of the fantasy sports industry, in order to form a more perfect fantasy baseball league, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility within the league, provide for the appropriate evaluation of trades, promote fairness in the best interests of the league, and secure the commitments of returning teams in a dynasty keeper league, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the fantasy baseball league. Admittedly, running a fantasy baseball league is slightly less arduous than upholding the laws of society. Regardless, the presence of a league constitution will provide similar benefits and stability. This is because the rules and procedures of a league are clearly delineated so that the commissioner and all league members have an understanding of their respective responsibilities and duties. By putting your league's rules in writing, everyone involved is on notice and has instant access to them in the event of a controversy. One prominent perception of the U.S. Constitution is that it is a living, breathing document. This way of thinking was best summed up by former Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes who said the Constitution "must be considered in the light of our whole experience and not merely in that of what was said a hundred years ago." What this means is that as times change, so should the interpretation and scope of the written rules. We live in a time of tremendous technological innovations and the ability to do almost everything via smartphones. So rules that were written in 1990 regarding the submission of lineups and transactions probably are not applicable today. That is why a league's constitution needs to be updated and modified to conform to current times. Whether you have an existing league constitution or are looking to create one for the first time, there are several generally accepted provisions that should be incorporated in the document irrespective of the format, style, structure, cost or complexity of the league you are in. The following list is not exhaustive, but at the very least forms the skeleton by which you can craft your league's constitution. 1. Mission statement - the purpose of the league. 2. Description of the league – how many teams, how many years of the league, keeper/non-keeper, AL/NL or mixed league, etc. 3. Important dates and deadlines – when money is due, lineups due (daily or weekly), trade deadline, draft, end of regular season, start of playoffs, etc. 4. Draft – the style of draft (snake vs. auction), the draft order, budget/auction dollars, time limits per pick, penalties for late picks. 5. Roster requirements – list the required starting positions and how many of each must be in a lineup. 6. Points/scoring system – list the point values for each statistic your league keeps track of. 7. Transactions – your rules about making add/drops, waiver wire, free agents, disabled list, injuries, etc. 8. Trades – your rules about making trades, criteria for evaluating them, process for approval (league vote or commissioner approval). 9. Standings – how many divisions your league is broken up into, the list of teams in each division, tie-breakers. 10. Playoffs – how many teams make the playoffs, how many weeks the playoffs are, the seeding for each week of playoffs. 11. Position eligibility – how many games are required for a player to be eligible at a position (from the previous year and current season). 12. Issues of first impression – how you will handle an issue or situation that is not delineated in the constitution (i.e., setting up a committee to resolve the issue, send out for a league vote, use a dispute resolution service like Fantasy Judgment, etc.) 13. League finances – entry fee, transactions fees, penalties (if any), prize money distribution, weekly awards (if any). The mere presence of a constitution does not mean that your fantasy baseball league will be free from drama or controversy. It is unreasonable to expect a commissioner to foresee every possible scenario that can arise during a season. However, if the proper guidelines are in place to handle unforeseen issues, then the league is at least equipped with the best possible way of amicably resolving a conflict. Posted by Michael Stein at 10:29am (0) Comments Wednesday, March 14, 2012Second look: Top 30 fantasy first basemen for 2012Over the next week or so, in an attempt to catch up on fantasy season, I am going to do a top 20 or so list by position for the players who will either be eligible at that position under Yahoo! default standards to start the season or who are projected to gain eligibility within the first month of the season (e.g., Miguel Cabrera and Jesus Montero). The rules of eligibility for Yahoo fantasy leagues: The following conditions apply to a player's position eligibility: ESPN imposes a more rigorous default position eligibility standard (e.g., 20 games played at the position last season, 10 games played in the present season), so you may have to do additional research if you play ESPN fantasy to verify that players listed in these articles are in fact "position eligible" in your league. These rankings are based on 5x5 standard Yahoo! Roto leagues. Rankings are not based on real-life value but fantasy value. Hence, players like Juan Pierre tend to have value for you closer to what Kenny Williams is willing to pay him in real life. Projections listed below are courtesy of Brian Cartwright's Oliver projection system. I recommend that you purchase a subscription, as the pre- and in-season updates are an invaluable fantasy tool. My rankings are not exclusively based on Oliver's projections, however. Rankings are primarily determined based on total production by category, balance in production, and scarcity of production level. Because I am ranking players by position, positional flexibility is not taken into account in my rankings (though you should absolutely consider positional flexibility at the draft board). Tiers represent groups of relatively fungible players, guys who if you traded me the guy at the bottom of that tier for the top guy would not require you to add "too much" value to pull off a trade. In other words, guys within a tier are relatively easy to trade for one another. If you have any specific questions about my rankings, please post them in the comments. Here are my top 20 fantasy first basemen for 2012. Tier 1 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 1 Albert Pujols ANA .307/.393/.578 2 Miguel Cabrera DET .327/.415/.564 3 Joey Votto CIN .314/.412/.548 4 Adrian Gonzalez BOS .320/.406/.550 Tier 2 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 5 Prince Fielder DET .290/.402/.520 6 Mark Teixeira NYY .255/.349/.479 7 Paul Konerko CHW .285/.364/.498 8 Mike Napoli TEX .272/.355/.519 Tier 3 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 9 Eric Hosmer KCR .292/.348/.457 10 Michael Morse WAS .287/.344/.493 11 Paul Goldschmidt ARI .272/.347/.523 12 Pablo Sandoval SFG .300/.351/.498 Tier 4 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 13 Billy Butler KCR .298/.365/.464 14 Michael Young TEX .302/.349/.447 15 Lance Berkman STL .270/.380/.459 16 Carlos Santana CLE .248/.362/.451 17 Ike Davis NYM .271/.351/.462 Tier 5 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 18 Joe Mauer MIN .313/.385/.458 19 Kevin Youkilis BOS .278/.382/.488 20 Adam Dunn CHW .226/.343/.445 21 Bryan LaHair CHC .267/.338/.501 Tier 6 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 22 Kendrys Morales ANA .291/.337/.501 23 Michael Cuddyer COL .288/.349/.482 24 Freddie Freeman ATL .281/.343/.450 25 Adam Lind TOR .257/.309/.451 Tier 7 Rank Player Name Team Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash 26 Mark Reynolds BAL .226/.326/.482 27 Mark Trumbo ANA .250/.295/.440 28 Lucas Duda NYM .267/.346/.455 29 Carlos Pena TBR .214/.338/.436 30 Ryan Howard PHI .269/.350/.509 Tier 1This tier goes without explanation. Albert Pujols and Joey Votto are five-category studs, offering .300/30/100/100/5 or more. Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez, on the other hand, offer bankable elite four-category production. Everyone in this tier should at least reach the .300/30/100/100 mark this season, though Votto probably has the "least" power of the group (which he more than makes up for with stolen-base upside). If you get someone in this tier, you're absolutely golden. Tier 2Tier two features some pretty productive names, but there's either a flaw or question looming around each player. Prince Fielder has legitimate power and is in a pretty strong lineup, but how much better is batting around Cabrera than Ryan Braun when you're moving to an arguably harder division in a less hitter-friendly park? Fielder's batting average has always been a wild card, and he does not steal bases. Fielder is a guaranteed 30/100/100 player with elite production, but the question of whether he'll be a three- or four-category guy this year is what keeps him outside the top tier, which is reserved for the guaranteed four/five category guys. During his three seasons as a Yankee, Mark Teixeira has 111 home runs, 341 RBIs and 306 runs scored. Like Fielder, he's almost guaranteed elite three-category production. Also like Fielder as well, he does not really steal (though it is worth noting that Tex amassed four stolen bases last season). But where Fielder has batted .299 in two of the past three seasons (bookmarking a .261 batting average campaign), Tex has seen his batting average trend in the wrong direction over the past four seasons, from .308 in 2008 to .292 in 2009 to .256 in 2010 to .248 in 2011. Tex is now 32, so how much "rebound" we can expect from his batting average is questionable at its most optimistic. Last year's .239 BABIP was a career-low mark that will likely see some regression, and his xBABIP last season was close to .300, but older players do not run as well as the "league average" and Teixeira is one of the slower baserunners in baseball (meaning the likelihood he "underperforms" his xBABIP is high). I think he should hit around .270 next year, but the days of Tex as a four-category elite first baseman are over. Paul Konerko is patently underrated. Over the past two years, he's hit .300/30/100, and in six of the past eight seasons he's hit 30 or more home runs. In the other two seasons, 2008 and 2009, he hit 28 and 22. And in '08, when he only hit 22, injuries limited Konerko to 122 games. A career .282 hitter, Konerko is one of the hard-to-find guys who can hit for power without killing your batting average. I still do not buy his late-career resurgence as a "high average" hitter, but the rest is totally legit. Oliver sees Konerko hitting .285/.364/.498 this season with just under 30 home runs and close to 100 RBI. That seems right on the money. The loss of Quentin in the lineup might affect Konerko's RBI and run totals, but an expected rebound from Dunn and Rios (though how much both with improve is questionable) should at least offset that. Konerko is a rock of three-category production with strong runs score performance, as well. First and foremost, we need to note that if you draft Mike Napoli, you sure as heck are not going to use him as your first baseman (the same is true about Joe Mauer and Carlos Santana and, if he gets first baseman eligibility, Buster Posey as well, all of whom I will skip in my subsequent tier analysis). Still, he qualifies for the position, and assuming he finally gets regular full-time playing time, Napoli should be about as valuable as Konerko. Tier 3Tier three consists of the three-category guys with plenty of upside but no real "bankability." A .290+ campaign with 25-home run upside out of the middle of the order makes Eric Hosmer an intriguing option, but that's really the upside, and there's no real track record here. Downside should be Billy Butler-like power numbers and an above-average (.280-something) batting average. Hosmer could be the next Votto in a few years. Until then, he has .300/20-25/5-10 upside, which is rare enough for a first baseman. Michael Morse was one of my trendy early-season sleeper picks last year, and he really broke out in a big way after a questionable start to the season when Adam LaRoche went down with an injury. Morse, like Hosmer, has the ability to hit for power and average. There's no stolen-base upside here, however, which is why Morse is ranked below Hosmer despite having a little more power upside in a slightly better lineup. You might think I am overrating Paul Goldschmidt, but I'm worried about underrating him by putting him just outside the top ten. Goldilocks won't hit for a high average (but he should be able to hit for a respectable enough average (.270?)), but he is the most likely player outside the first tier to reach 30 home runs and 10 stolen bases this season. Goldschmidt's power is absolutely legit, and he'll get middle-of-the-order-slotting. In 2011, he stole a combined 13 bases between Double-A and the major leaues, and I have an unproven theory that rookies tend to run more to "add to their value" and show their team that they deserve to stick. That's not to say Goldschmidt necessarily will steal double digit bases this season, but I am absolutely buying Oliver's forecast of a .270+/30+/5/100+ season. Pablo Sandoval's weight regain heading into spring training worries me. Should I look at 2011 and 2009, or should I be concerned about 2010? You'll notice I'm cautious in my ranking of him in the third basemen rankings as well. I like Fat Panda in theory, but when he's not in shape, I do not know what to expect. Tier 4Butler showed more of the "power upside" he was once touted to have, though playing in Kaufman Stadium will always limit Butler's home run upside potential. With an upgraded offense due to the infusion of Moustakas and Hosmer, Butler should be able to reach the 180 R+RBI plateau this year. And 22 home runs with a .300 batting average is underrated production. Another couple of stolen bases would be nice as well, but don't expect it. Michael Young is a player that I want, with all my heart, to rank lower, but I just can't. First basemen with teens home run power upside are so boring, but Young has the potential to hit for a +.300 batting average with five-to-10 stolen bases out of the middle of one of baseball's best lineups, which makes 190 R+RBI very likely. Every year I hate on Matt Cain and Young, and every year, they do more than I claim they will. Maybe this year—the year I finally rank them where everyone else does—will be the year they prove my gut right. Alas, assuming Young can repeat his 2010-2011 performance, he's a top-flight, albeit non-traditional, first-base option. Lance Berkman had a big bounceback campaign last year, but he tapered off in a big way in the second half last season. Ike Davis' Valley Fever worries me. The fungal infection absolutely derailed the career of Conor Jackson. But Davis was only technically diagnosed with Valley Fever symptoms and is being treated as if he has the illness. The Mets are being quite cautious and, from what I have read, it seems the Mets caught whatever it is Davis has very early on, which makes successful treatment without the horrible derailing effects that much more likely. Though I wish him the best and healthiest recovery, this makes Davis a wild card. Consider Davis a high-risk, high-reward draft pick at this point. He has .280 batting average, 25-plus home run potential and would get middle-of-the-order slotting if healthy. His upside is too good too ignore. If you draft Davis, however, you absolutely need to draft a handcuff like Lucas Duda or a potential replacement like Bryan LaHair. You're not drafting Carlos Santana to be your first baseman. And if you do, trade him to someone who needs a catcher. Tier 5You're not drafting Joe Mauer to be your first baseman. And if you do, trade him to someone who needs a catcher. This might seem like a low ranking for Kevin Youkilis, but I just don't trust him to stay healthy. Adam Dunn, on the flip side, might seem ranked a little high given his Carlos Pena-like outlook for 2012. Maybe I am putting too much stock in the effects of his appendectomy, but I think Dunn can at least perform at the .230-batting average, 30-home run, 80-plus-RBI level next year with the potential to return to his pre-2011 form (which would make him much more valuable than Mark Reynolds). And then there's Bryan LaHair, from whom I expect a major breakout this year. Unlike most Cubs prospects (largely because they weren't the organization that drafted him), LaHair takes a walk. Like a lot of Cubs prospects, unfortunately, he's old for his level. But that doesn't mean he can't be productive. PCL numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt, but LaHair did lead the league with 38 homers. He had another two, in 70 at bats, with the Cubs in addition to a .220 ISO in a brief 20-game major-league stint. Call me overly optimistic, but despite the high strikeout rate, LaHair is legitimately capable of a Goldschmidt-like season without the stolen-base upside. LaHair's past three season MLEs are pretty strong and trending upwards (.769 OPS in 2009, .806 OPS in 2010, and .910 OPS in 2011). I think he's pretty capable of the .267 batting average, 25-20 home runs per 600 plate appearances, and 90 RBI that Oliver forecasts for him. I only projected LaHair for 311 plate appearances this year because I am uncertain of what happens with Anthony Rizzo and Alfonso Soriano down the stretch. As you might have noticed, the Cubs have Rizzo and Brett Jackson coming up quickly with Marlon Byrd penciled in to center field in the last year of his contract, David DeJesus comfortably plopped in right for a couple of seasons, and Soriano entenched in the left-field spot with one of baseball's most bloated contracts. Because of this logjam, it's likely Jackson won't see full-time/regular playing time in the outfield until 2013 because, even if the Cubs manage to move Soriano, Rizzo is likely to push LaHair to left field (or get traded). LaHair will probably get full time playing time in 2012 as either the Cubs' first baseman, right fielder or another team's first baseman or designated hitter around the trade deadline—assuming he produces this year. LaHair is a medium-risk, high-reward play for 2012. I just couldn't justify putting him in the top 20 without being called too much of a homer (especially when you see where I have ranked Ian Stewart among third basemen for 2012). Tier 6Kendrys Morales is pretty risky since he ha almost two years of rust on him and is only now just starting to run the bases after one of the flukiest injuries in baseball history. Still, I think he's less of a risk for 2012 than Justin Morneau was heading into 2011, for what that's worth. If healthy and not too rusty, Morales certainly has plenty of fantasy relevance as a 20-plus home run capable hitter with a moderately useful batting average potential. Plus, the addition of some guy named "Albert" can't hurt R/RBI potential (though it does create a positional logjam). Michael Cuddyer seems to disappoint every other year, so maybe this is just a baselesly low ranking. A 15-20 home run capable hitter with five-plus stolen bases is certainly valuable, but but unless Cuddyer can hit above .289, he'll just be a two-category guy with modest other-category offerings, at best. The move to Coors certainly legitimizes his likelihood to repeat 20 home runs next season. Cuddyer's real fantasy tool is his positional flexibility. Call me overly bearish on Freddie Freeman, but I just don't see him as anything more than a 2007-2011 Derrek Lee type: 20-ish home run power, low/mid-.280s batting average, and maybe a few stolen bases. The Braves' offense is not fearsome enough to even bank 85 RBI with a Freeman pick. He's a solid late-round flier corner infielder, but I wouldn't want him as my starting first baseman. Adam Lind: feast or famine? He started out the 2011 season hot and seemingly returned to form, but then he fizzled out. Lind's 20-25 home run power is still there, but the days of hoping for an elite batting average too are likely behind us. He offers minimal speed but good lineup slotting. Lind can give you a .250 batting average, maybe 23 home runs and 90 runs batted in as a corner infielder or utility option for 2012. Tier 7Mark Reynolds' upside is 30-something home runs with a horrible batting average. That's Carlos Pena with a little more power and positional flexibility. You're probably using Reynolds as your third baseman before your first baseman, however. The Orioles aren't going anywhere anytime soon, so Reynolds is pretty much a lock to get his playing time as long as he's hitting above .210. Assuming he gets his playing time, and assuming you don't play in an on-base league, Mark Trumbo is a solid low-average, high-power producer as a corner infielder, and he's third-base eligible. The Angels offense is pretty potent, so Trumbo should get plenty of RBI opportunities. Lucas Duda is the mandatory handcuff for whomever drafts Ike Davis, but Duda has 20-plus home run power with decent batting average skills if he can just find regular playing time. Carlos Pena is what he is. A 25-plus home run guy who struggles to hit .230. He's the epitome of cheap power and has a lot more use in on-base percentage leagues. I do not expect Ryan Howard to play in the majors until July. But half a season of 15-home run power with a .250 batting average and above-average RBI production, when paired with a Duda type or some other fantasy league-average first baseman for the first three months could collectively result in top-20 production. Just don't overpay for Howards' services at draft day just to stash him. As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below. Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:15am (15) Comments Solve for ADP pt. 2A few weeks ago, I published a column that took generally reasonable, though arbitrary projections for various players and ran those numbers through baseballmonster’s player rate data for last year to get a feel for what those players would have to do to live up to their ADP. A more thorough explanation of the process is included in the original column. That column got a good reaction, and some of you specifically asked me to do some more of these. So, here’s another mini-round of Solving for ADP, taking three more players whose ADPs jumped out at me as intriguing for one reason or another. Giancarlo Stanton ADP: 25 Okay, so what if I just wanted to type “Giancarlo Stanton?” Pretty big things are expected of this young man, and I wouldn’t claim the following hypothetical season to be among the most aggressive projections I’ve seen. R:90 HR: 37 RBI: 103 SB: 4 AVG: .264 2010 Equivalent overall rank: 21 Many of us at THT are high on Stanton. I’m not the highest, but I am aboard the bandwagon. Still, when I saw an ADP of 25, I was quite curious as to how much profit and loss potential there would be at that price. Well, it appears that if you love Stanton, there’s still a legitimate chance at profit at the 25th overall pick. If Stanton steps even further forward in the power department, or is the beneficiary of some modest BABIP luck, there’s top 15 potential to be tapped, top 12 if he can swipe double digit bases, which many young players are able to do just by virtue of being young. Stanton certainly would be on my radar in the mid 20s. In fact, if you’re among those of us who generally stay away from the super elite starting pitchers, he might start popping up into your sights in the late teens. Starlin Castro ADP: 42 Castro strikes me as a medium fish in a small pond. Let’s see what the following season would net you. R:85 HR: 10 RBI: 68 SB: 23 AVG: .300 2010 Equivalent overall rank: 47 There are two ways to interpret the data above. If you want to focus on the positional value aspect of Castro’s fourth-rounder candidacy, you can note that shortstop is a barren wasteland and getting the consensus fourth-best player at his position in the fourth round isn’t a bad deal. The fact that a fairly standard season would return about 90 cents on your dollar while earning you a sound positional advantage over a number of teams in your league paints a picture of Castro as a somewhat safe investment around his ADP. That doesn’t happen to be the camp to which I belong. I tend to think Castro is being overdrafted. I want production over “value” early in the draft. I’d rather invest highly in one of the Big Three shortstops, or wait for the last player in the Castro, Rollins, Cabrera, Andrus (and maybe Jeter) tier. Basically, Castro projects to be the first player from the second tier at his position to be drafted, and that’s a pick I try to avoid making. I just don’t see the potential to profit from this pick. It should be mentioned that there’s a minority out there who believe Castro will have a bit of a power breakout this season. This would be the key to Castro turning a positive return on his ADP. If you think 16–18 homers is in the cards for Castro, then that changes his projected value, and maybe you should take the plunge. With 40 combined steals and homers, he would separate himself a bit further from the others in his tier and stand alone between the Tulos and and Hanleys and the Cabreras and Andruses. On another note, while it wouldn’t come the same way, it’s possible that Dee Gordon nets similar overall value, by basically being Michael Bourn as a shortstop. Alex Rodriguez ADP: 58 Has the A-Rod backlash jumped the shark? It’s hard to project a season for A-Rod, given that he’s been unable to stay healthy the last several seasons. Still, the counting numbers tally prolifically when he’s on the field. How about something like this? R:78 HR: 27 RBI: 80 SB: 6 AVG: .268 2010 Equivalent overall rank: 53 Perhaps the A-Rod hate has gone too far. There are two things about the Rodriguez equation that I like from a fantasy investment perspective. The first thing to like is that if he plays a full season, you get massive value from this pick. He’s no longer an MVP candidate, but as far as I can tell, Rodriguez probably is a good bet to produce similarly to Mark Teixeira in a full season’s worth of at-bats. The other side of the equation is that A-Rod, if he were to miss time, is likely to miss consecutive chunks of games as opposed to suffering nagging injuries. That DNP profile is easier to manage, as weekly-lineup-settings leaguers have certainty, and all A-Rod owners can pick up a decent player off waivers and plug him into their lineups for a week or two at a time. While A-Rod may or may not return his ADP value, he will outproduce his ADP in per-game production, which means that if you spend a late-round pick, or a dollar or two, on a contingency plan, you should probably be able to eke out a profit from your investment in the third base position if you select in A-Rod. That is not to say Rodriguez is the only value to be had at the position. Aramis Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, and Kevin Youkilis are all being drafted after A-Rod and have their own appealing upsides, as well. Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:11am (8) Comments Thursday, March 15, 2012I’ve got my eyes on you…Firstly, disregard the creepy title—I am not watching you literally. Hell, I’m not even referring to you. It’s my original rendering of the tired “Love/Hate” titling. And for what it’s worth, I’m only in the business of loving in this column. Secondly, let me explain myself a bit here. I, like every fantasy analyst in the world, have a list of players I like to breakout, outperform expectations, steal a job, jump a tier, etc. I am conscious that once you see plenty of “Sleeper” and “Love” lists, you’ll either knowingly or unknowingly catch on to names that appear regularly. A Bryan LaHair, let’s say. So, at risk of throwing 10 or so names at you that you’ve already heard, targeted, and perhaps drafted, I will divulge my favorite players, some sleepier than even I would like. But, let’s see if I can’t spin it a little differently. I’ll give three reasons for each players—whether they be a managerial change, a home ballpark alteration, a minor league breakout or what not, I’ll stick to three for each—in hopes that it sticks in your head a little better than a whole lot of stats thrown at you. Which isn’t to say I won’t throw stats at you. And these guys widely vary in their draft-ability; maybe they’ll fit in certain formats, or maybe they’re a one-size-fits-all. So, you ready? My eyes are on… Frank Francisco because he’s a cheap closer who switched leagues and secretly has a top-notch strikeout rate. Yes, Frankie has never topped a quarter-century in the saves category, and yes, he’s as injury prone as anyone, but his strikeout rate – his personal low in three years – was among the top 40 in the league for qualified relievers. He bested Sean Marshall, Daniel Bard, Mike Adams, Joakim Soria, Drew Storen, Brian Wilson, Mariano Rivera, and Jose Valverde, for illustration’s sake, and while his home-run rate gives me a bit of pause, a switch to the NL could offset the new fences in Citi Field. He’s currently the 35th reliever off the board per Mock Draft Central, meaning Mark Melancon and noted set-up man Francisco Rodriguez are being taken ahead of a much worthier Francisco. Oh, the disgust! Mike Moustakas because he broke out in September like his top-prospect status dictated he would, and because third base is shallow. Let me pose a question. What’s a realistic expectation for Kevin Youkilis? 22 homers and 86 runs batted in, coupled with a .278 batting average? Now tell me what you think Mike Moustakas can do. How about 18 homers and 81 runs batted in with a .264 batting average, the Oliver projection. Factor in the injury risks—which is to say Youk’s injury risks—and the average draft positions—Youk’s is 85 and Moustakas’ is 218—and you have yourself a steal. Moose broke out to a fine tune in September and has real power upside (high line-drive rate, mid-range fly-ball percentage) without high strikeout tendencies, leading me to believe his batting average upside is higher even. I’d be thrilled to draft him in the 200s. Marco Scutaro because he moved to a hitter’s heaven and has a full-time gig at a top-heavy position. Say you miss on Troy Tulowitzki in the first round. Say you then miss on Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes in the second round. By the time the fourth round rolls through, Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro are off the board. If your faith isn’t in Asdrubal Cabrera, then why not wait ‘till the last round to snag Marco Scutaro for a buck? Scutaro has double-digit steal and homer upside, especially in the high-flying Coors Field, and can challenge for .300 like he did last year. I’d highly advise him even in mixed leagues. Mat Gamel because he’s finally getting his chance to shine after another monster showing at Triple-A and because he qualifies at a scarce position in some leagues. Mat Gamel is now a first baseman, but carries third base eligibility in ESPN leagues still. Mat Gamel has 25 home run power. Mat Gamel finally has a starting gig. Read more about him here, and do yourself a favor and spend one of your last dollars on him. Cory Luebke because he has elite ratio stats and the friendliest of home parks yet is still masquerading as a fourth starter in many drafts. Luebke broke out big time last year; striking out nearly 10 per nine innings, while putting up elite triple-slash numbers and equally elite WHIP numbers. So why isn’t he a top 20 pitcher? The Padres are inept on offense, as you may well know. Luebke’s strikeout rate is a bit suspect, as it far outpaced his minor league totals, so a dip will likely be in order. And perhaps there’s a little bit of bias because he wasn’t a prospect with much pedigree and didn’t impress in his first major league cup of tea. Sleeping on Luebke would be a mistake—and though he is among the first 40 pitchers taken… barely—he could serve as a number two pitcher on a perfectly fine pitching staff. After all, his fastball was fifth in value among pitchers with 100+ innings, and his slider was a plus pitch as well. Bryan LaHair because he can be had for a buck despite his minor-league home run rampage that led to a starting gig in 2012. LaHair nearly hit 40 homers in Triple-A last year, and the 29-year-old journeyman thusly enters 2012 with the starting first base gig on the Cubs. Though I see Anthony Rizzo as legitimate competition midseason for playing time, the fact of the matter is that LaHair will have several months, in my estimation, to prove his worth on the major league club. He was 55 percent better than league average in Triple-A, and has shown a good eye at the dish throughout his minor-league journey. 20 home runs is a legitimate expectation, and considering the lack of risk associated with a late-round pick on LaHair, he seems like a perfect lottery ticket. Shawn Tolleson because he registered a sub-zero FIP in A ball and is on the cusp of the majors, armed with elite strikeout potential in the late innings. Sean who? Hear me out: I can imagine at least one scenario in which Kenley Jansen is injured as per usual, while Javy Guerra chokes like his minor-league numbers suggest he one day should/will, and the Dodgers are left with no clear-cut ninth inning option. Enter Shawn Tolleson in my hypothetical, he whose strikeout-per-nine has been between 11.1 and 19.8 in what is a storied minor league career. He might start the year at Triple-A or in the Dodgers bullpen, but either way, he could end up with a large role by season’s end, and perhaps could vulture a couple of saves in a dreamy scenario. Deep NL-Only owners take note, and keeper leaguers do the same. He could be a sneaky value pick in at least one category. Nolan Arenado because he will occupy a scarce position in a fun home park after a likely major league promotion by midsummer and notable minor league track record of mashing. A power hitting third base prospect—of top 10 status, no less—playing half his games at Coors Field. How’s that for a hook? Arenado has yet to play at Double-A yet is considered a near-lock for a summer call-up, which is a testament both to Colorado’s lack of depth at the hot corner as well as the kid’s raw talent. His Major League Equivalency projections, courtesy of The Hardball Times’ Oliver forecasts, have Arenado down for 19 homers and 74 runs batted in in 469 at-bats, and he has yet to play an at-bat in the high minors. Talent is on his side, management is on his side, and his form of competition is Casey Blake, who is old and injury-prone. Look for Arenado sometime around June or July unless the strugglin’ is mighty in Double-A, which is an unlikely scenario in my estimation. Henderson Alvarez because he’ll cost a mere dollar, despite his pinpoint control and impressive cup of coffee in the majors last year. A 5.0 K/BB is impressive, but such a ratio that features a 5.65 K/9 is all the more impressive. Alvarez surrendered a mere eight walks in his 63 innings last year, while mixing a 93 mile per hour fastball, a slider nearly 10 miles per hour slower, and a sneaky good changeup. The projection systems don’t like Alvarez because he has little minor league dominance—rather, he has his trademark top notch K/BB ratio. His swinging strike percentage is due for a jump, though, and his home run rate is due for a drop, so a 3.50 ERA is a realistic projection. Match that with his 1.13 WHIP last year and you have a mid-range starter, snagged for a single Washington. | ||||