THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:11am (6) Comments

Top 100 Fantasy baseball Prospects, Part 2: 26-50

26: Hak-Ju Lee/SS/Tampa Bay Rays/11-4-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Not much power projection, but breakout 2011 resulted in an MLE slash of .272/.325/.385.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Sure, everyone loves power. Lee won't provide much of it, but that doesn't mean he can't be an impact player at a position where offense is a luxury. What Lee lacks in power he can easily make up for in pure hitting ability and speed. The fact that he recognizes home run hitting isn't a part of his game is a big plus.

Lee slaps the ball around the field, and isn't afraid to work walks to get on base where his speed is a headache for opponents. His efficiency was down last year, but that should improve with work and further coaching. His speed, on-base skills, and modest power make him an ideal player to hit at or near the top of the order. As a table setter, he could be a big contributor in runs scored and stolen bases. He should also provide ample production in batting average. He struggled in his first crack at Double-A, and he'll open the year back with Montgomery hoping for more success in attempt two. With fellow shortstop prospect Tim Beckham a level ahead of him, the Rays can afford to take their time with Lee.

October 2011: Prior to the season the Rays dealt Matt Garza to the Cubs for a gaggle of prospects. The highest rated prospect was Chris Archer who was coming off a solid 2010 campaign. The true crown jewel appears to be Hak-Ju Lee, who had a breakout 2011 season.

The primary responsibility of any up-the-middle player is defense, and Lee's is banner. What matters more to fantasy gamers, though, is that he comes equipped with the ability to hit. His power may never show itself as more than average, and his MLEs suggest it won't, but some scouting reports suggest his plus bat speed could result in gap power with some round trippers tossed in as he matures. His speed should allow him to take advantage of his strong on-base skills and steal bases. He's one level below Tim Beckham who is in Triple-A right now, but is the better bet to play shortstop for the Rays when he gets there.

27: Kolten Wong/2B/St. Louis Cardinals/10-10-90/ETA:2013
Forecast notes:: Oliver's forecast loves Wong, and believes he's ready now. Double digit power and speed combination with a plus batting average: That would play great at second base.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Wong won't wow fantasy gamers in any one statistical category, but his ability to help across the board will make him a very valuable player at the keystone position. The one category he should shine the brightest in is batting average. He has an advanced understanding of the strike zone and a compact swing that leads to ropes to the gaps. He has enough pop in his bat to hit teen taters in the Show, and enough baserunning savvy and speed to match or best that stealing bases.

Lineup position will be key for Wong, as he'll need to score a healthy number of runs or drive them in to maximize his fantasy value. His strong on-base skills profile well for the top of an order, and little stands in his way to eventually laying claim to the Cardinals' leadoff duties in the future. Wong's pro debut exemplified his polish, and he should fly through the system. Second base is messy on the parent club, but Wong should clean things up, laying claim to keystone duties sometime in 2013.

October 2011: Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks is a Wong believer but alludes to a potential move to left field that would cripple his value in fantasy. Baseball America also cites his ability to play a super utility type role. Small in stature, but not lacking for pop, he could produce teens home run totals. He's a plus hitter with average speed but good base running instincts that could net him useful stolen base totals.

28: Cheslor Cuthbert/3B/Kansas City Royals/11-16-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: Oliver projects that Cuthbert is a few years from being fantasy relevant. By 2015 he is projected to hit high teens home run totals with a low batting average.
Scouting notes: March 2012: The dog days of summer took their toll on Cuthbert, and his final season line paid for it. In May, June and July he hit .308, .307, and .356 respectively with seven home runs in 204 at-bats. He showed patience, walking 19 times, and made contact frequently, striking out only 33 times. The wheels fell off the bus in July, and he was unable to recover in August. His .135 average was putrid, and he struck out 32 times in his final 96 at-bats.

The culprit for his struggles was mostly fatigue. Cuthbert played more than twice as many games in 2011 as he had played in 2010. He also played all season as an 18-year-old. He made strides in the field, but not everyone is sold he'll stick at third. Cuthbert has the arm to stick there; the concern is that he'll outgrow the position.

For now, he'll rank this highly with the thought being he'll stick at third base. If he moves off the position, he'll see a significant hit to his fantasy stock. He'll start the year in High-A playing in a park, Wilmington, that according to ballpark factors found at Baseball Think Factory (thanks to the work of Jeff Sackman and Dan Szymborsk)i, suppressed home runs substantially (0.78 multiplier, with 1.00 being neutral). Keep that in mind if his power numbers aren't off the charts. Cuthbert projects to hit for power in the future, and as long as the scouting reports continue to read as such, don't adjust your expectations for him too drastically if he fails to put up a gaudy home run total in 2012.

October 2011: Cuthbert doesn't get the due he deserves as part of a loaded Royals farm system. At just 18, he's playing in a full season league and playing well. He has struggled of late, but some scouts believe it's a product of him wearing down. Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks called him a breakout candidate coming into the season. He describes Cuthbert as having "some of the best barrel awareness" he has ever seen in a teen. He uses the whole field as a hitter and has developing power.

He's got enough defensive skills to stick at third base as well. He was an honorable mention on Keith Law's midseason top-50 prospect list as well, and is a C+ high upside prospect in the eyes of Sickels.

29: Jacob Turner/SP/Detroit Tigers/5-21-91/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Two solid years with good control but only average strikeout rates.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Having not spent a full season at any one minor league level, Turner is on the Tigers' accelerated pitcher development plan (see: The Rick Porcello Plan). Turner has acquitted himself well at each stop save for struggling in a couple major league starts after a decent debut in the Show.

Turner's control and command are excellent. His high water walk mark in the minors was a plenty good 2.53 BB/9 in 113.2 innings pitched at the Double-A level. He's walked under two batters per nine innings at every other level of the minors. Turner throws three average or better pitches, a couple of fastballs that sit in the low-90s with movement, a plus curveball, and an average change-up that flashes more on occasion.

His strikeout rates have been a little low for a prospect who occasionally gets future ace grades, and at worst, gets top-flight number two starter grades. A big part of that is likely the speed at which he has been moved through the system after being selected in the first round of the 2009 amateur draft. In three Triple-A starts made after his major league debut, he was at his best, striking out 20 batters in 17.1 innings pitched (10.38 K/9), all while still pounding the strike zone (1.56 BB/9). Turner is in the mix for the Tigers' fifth starter gig this spring. If he doesn't break camp in that role, expect him to lay claim to it sometime early in the summer.

October 2011: Turner was considered the top high school pitcher in the 2009 draft, and the Tigers promptly snapped him up and paid him an above-slot $5.5 million. He's a three-pitch starter with a fastball around 92-94 mph that can be bumped up a bit when he needs a little extra oomph. Most scouting reports describe his heater as having sink or boring action, which help him induce ground balls. His best secondary offering is a developing 12-to-6 curveball with plus potential and a change-up that could end up being an average big league pitch.

He has moved quickly, and in a perfect world has the package to develop into a top of the rotation starter. His control is quite good, but his strikeout rate leaves something to be desired from a fantasy perspective. The natural fear for those who have followed the Tigers' recent development of pitching arms is that Turner turns into Rick Porcello version 2.0. He hasn't been rushed as quickly, and has struck out more hitters in his brief Triple-A and major league time, so don't rush to that assumption just yet

30: Taijuan Walker/SP/Seattle Mariners/8-13-92/ ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Control is a work in progress, but strikeouts in bunches.
Scouting notes: March 2012: The Mariners have a trio of starting pitching prospects that compares favorably to just about any in all of baseball, and Walker's ceiling is the highest of the bunch. He is also the furthest away. That said, his play in 2011 was excellent for a 2010 draftee who was a multi-sport prep star, and he should move faster than most would have anticipated.

Walker joined professional ball with a live arm that fired blazing fastballs. He still has that fastball, but now backs it with a developing change-up he's able to use in games, and a hammer curveball that is a doozy and can make opposing hitters look foolish. It's unclear where he'll begin the year in the minors. He may open in High-A playing in a hitter-friendly environment, or he may open skipping a level and pitching at Double-A. Either assignment will prove challenging for Walker, and will better help set an accurate timetable for his arrival to the bigs.

October 2011: Impressive season in Single-A as an 18-year-old who was considered a raw high school pitcher when the Mariners selected him in the supplemental first round of the 2010 draft. In part, he was considered raw because he was a high school basketball player and played shortstop as well. He throws a fastball with heavy sink and premier velocity (can reach 98 mph). As one would expect, that sinking fastball has helped him rack up the groundball outs (1.54 ground out-to-fly out). He also throws a plus curveball and is developing a change-up. His control has been described as spotty by both Kevin Goldstein and Sickels, so a 2014 ETA may be a bit ambitious. When he does arrive in the majors, calling Safeco Field home will be a nice perk.

31: Bubba Starling/OF/Kansas City Royals/8-3-92/ETA: 2016
Forecast notes: 2011 Draftee out of high school. No forecast.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Little has change with Starling since his October write-up. He still oozes with tools, and still doesn't have any professional game experience. He did see time in instructional league with the organization, and will look to earn a full-season league assignment in the spring. The sky is the limit for Starling, but there are countless stories of great athletes who failed as baseball players.

October 2011: The toolsy Nebraska football recruit chose professional baseball at Major League Baseball's signing deadline. His two-sport prowess limited his opportunities to play in premium high school baseball showcase events, and leave him an exciting piece of clay that needs molding to become something special at the major league level. He's a high-risk/high-reward type who may never be able to translate his physical abilities into baseball skills, or he may take well to coaching and turn into a superstar capable of 30/30 seasons with batting average. Starling's ranking on this list is likely to be polarizing, but at a certain point that tantalizing upside is too hard to pass on.

32: Jedd Gyorko/3B/San Diego Padres/9-23-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: 2011 MLE slash line of .303/.357/.510 suggests he's ready now.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Don't always judge a book by its cover. Gyorko isn't going to earn high marks for his physical appearance, but that hasn't stopped him from playing defense well enough at third base to project him to stick there. It also hasn't prevented him from ripping the cover off of baseballs at the dish.

He has hit a scintillating .323/.392/.518 in 844 professional at-bats. He was even better than that in the AFL, slashing an almost unfathomable .437/.500/.704 with five home runs in 82 plate appearances. His power grades out as average to a hair above and will be done no favors playing his home games at Petco in the future (though, Petco isn't nearly as tough on right-handed power as it is on left-handed power). What he lacks in power from the corner, he makes up for with projections of a high batting averages from seemingly every scouting outlet. All laud his short swing and strike zone awareness. Whether it be in Double-A, or in Triple-A, he'll begin the year in the high minors with a chance for a September call-up.

October 2011: Gyorko isn't a great defender, but he's a passable one who won't need to be moved off the hot corner, which immediately makes his offensive success this year more exciting. Most of his home run production came in the hitter-friendly Cal League, but he has done well moving up to Double-A, hitting six home runs in 221 at-bats. He squeaked his way onto Baseball America's and Goldstein's MidSeason Top 50 Prospect list, but missed Keith Law's.

He was a college hitter drafted in last year's second round, so low minor league success was to be expected. His complete dominance was better than expectations, though, and his success in Double-A is most promising for future big league success. Goldstein really likes his bat speed and projects average power. Playing in Petco is no walk in the park, but right-handed hitters like Gyorko don't have to deal with the soul-crushing home run suppression left-handed hitters do. He has a higher floor and safer projection than most of the third basemen in front of him on this list, but lacks the high ceiling of the others.

33: Martin Perez/SP/Texas Rangers/4-4-91/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Too many walks and hasn't put together a major league-quality season yet. Still young and in Triple-A.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Southpaws with Perez's stuff don't grow on trees. It is important to keep in perspective that his struggles in Triple-A came as a 20-year-old. The Rangers' official website says he has added a two-seam fastball to his pitch mix. Any extra weapons he can deploy to effectively retire hitters is a good thing.

Perez is likely to open the year at Triple-A, continuing to work as a starter, but there were some rumblings from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram in late February that he may break camp as the lone lefty in the Rangers bullpen. Perez wouldn't be the first big-time southpaw prospect to get his first introduction to the bigs in a relief capacity, but he'd probably be best served taking another crack at Triple-A hitters as a starting pitcher.

October 2011: As I ranked players using good old-fashioned pen and paper, Perez made me regret not opting for pencil as he was moved on the list often. Like Oliver and the Forecaster, I'd like to see more results. That said, it's hard not to get excited about a 20-year-old southpaw in Triple-A with gaudy scouting reports and plus velocity. Baseball America thinks highly enough of him to rank him sixth on its midseason top-50 prospect rankings list.

J.J. Cooper's July 8 midseason top-50 prospect chat wrap addressed a reader's question about Perez's performance, citing scouts saying he's shown three plus pitches. Let that sink in for a second: not one, not two, but three plus pitches from a left-handed pitcher with plus velocity and is in Triple-A at 20 Those who have faith in him putting things together would be justified in ranking him higher, and those who wish to see him perform better in games would be equally justified in moving him down the list. This serves as a happy medium ranking.

34: Manny Banuelos/SP/New York Yankees/3-13-91/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Control and strikeout rates took a significant step backwards, and it shows in comparing his 2010 MLE to his 2011 MLE.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Banuelos took a step back in his control, and in his strikeout rate in 2011. He still has plus stuff, and is quite young. He's getting work in spring training with the Yankees, but will return to Triple-A to begin the year. If he is able to recapture the command and control he showed in the lower levels of the minors, he could be a spot starter candidate over the summer.

October 2011: Good 2009 at age 18 followed by an average 2010. Way too many walks (4.8 BB/9, 5.7 BB/9) but young enough to be projectable to 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 4.27 ERA in 2014.

The gap between him and the higher-ranked Martin Perez probably isn't as big as this list might suggest. Both are young left-handers in Triple-A with plus stuff, according to industry experts. Banuelos' two best pitches by most accounts are his fastball and his change-up. His fastball resides in the low 90s and can touch 95 mph. He also throws a curveball with plus potential. The biggest concern surrounding Banuelos is his command, which has eroded since moving up the minor league ladder. At just 20, he has time to work that out.

The biggest difference between Banuelos and Perez is that Banuelos will pitch his home games at Yankee Stadium, which is more homer-happy than Rangers Ballpark at Arlington, and in the more treacherous American League East.

35: Danny Hultzen/SP/Seattle Mariners/11-28-89/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Sterling walk and strikeout rate projections from Oliver.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Hultzen pitched very well in the AFL, starting in six games and firing 19.1 innings to the tune of a 1.40 ERA and 2.79 FIP. He didn't miss many bats in his first three turns, striking out just two batters in nine innings, and failing to strike out a batter in his second and third starts, which spanned three and four innings respectively. He picked up his strikeout pace in his last three games, though, recording 16 in 10.1 innings.

Not included on his MiLB player page, or in the stats rattled off above, is his impressive two-inning start in the AFL Rising Stars game in which he allowed no hits, no runs and one walk, and struck out two. He is a very polished 2011 college draftee who is likely to begin the year in Double-A and finish the year in the majors.

October 2011: Most scouting reports describe him as having a No. 2 starter's ceiling. While that's solid, some of the other pitchers drafted around him are viewed as having more upside. That said, Hultzen is considered polished and has a seemingly higher floor than those same higher upside starters.

He's a southpaw who throws a fastball in the 92-94 mph range, but can touch 96. He also throws a slider that Kevin Goldstein calls a plus pitch, Baseball America calls an average pitch that shows plus potential, John Sickels refers to as improved, and Lincoln Hamilton of Project Prospect says has shown plus break but occasionally flattens out. All those scouting gurus rave about his change-up and call it a plus pitch, with most declaring it his best offering.

His command and control are above average, which along with three quality offerings helps support his high floor. His fantasy value is boosted with Safeco being his home ballpark.

36: Drew Pomeranz/SP/Colorado Rockies/11-22-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Outstanding professional debut MLE 3.74 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 2011.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Pomeranz is a big southpaw with plus velocity on his fastball. That velocity was down a bit in his major league debut that followed an emergency appendectomy. His plus fastball is actually his second-best pitch, trailing his knee-buckling curveball. Unfortunately, Pomeranz's change-up lags behind both plus offerings and is currently below average. He's gotten by primarily as a two pitch pitcher, but will need to develop his change-up to at least average if he hopes to have sustainable success in the bigs. The pitch has shown promise, and it's expected that he'll just need time and repetition for that to be the case.
He'll have a shot to be in the Rockies rotation on Opening Day. If he struggles in the spring, the team may opt to take it slower with him and send him down to Triple-A, a level he bypassed in his ascent to the majors.

October 2011: Who better to describe his pitching arsenal than Pomeranz himself? Pomeranz's bread and butter is a spike curve that he can use to get hitters from each side of the plate. As a lefty with plus velocity and a plus breaking ball, the foundation is already in place for success. The key is his ability to use his change-up to keep hitters off balance. It's not pre-humidor Coors, but it is still a launching pad so he'll need to turn some of his flyball outs into groundball outs. Overall, a solid debut in professional baseball that points to a promising future if he continues to develop accordingly.

37: Carlos Martinez (formerly Carlos Matias)/SP/St. Louis Cardinals/9-21-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Control issues and poor performance in High-A in 2011, but strikes batters out at a high rate.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Martinez's fastball is arguably the best in the minors. The pitch has velocity and movement, but is thrown with effort. The effort required for him to pump out heaters leads many to believe he'll end up closing games, not starting them.

His secondary pitches remain, well, secondary by a wide margin. He throws both a curveball and a change-up. The curveball flashes plus, but the change-up is further behind and he'll occasionally throw it too hard. As long as he remains a starter, he'll rank this highly, as his ceiling is fronting a rotation. The fallback of closing games and piling up strikeouts out of the bullpen isn't the end of the world for those choosing to gamble on Martinez.

October 2011: Martinez is another example of scouting reports straying from future projection based on current statistical performance. He throws with easy velocity, according to Keith Law, and can hit triple digits on the radar gun. Guys who throw plus-plus velocity heaters that light up the radar gun are few and far between.

Even more exciting is that the pitch is far from straight and has natural cutting action, according to Baseball America. He ranked 18th on its Top-50 Midseason Prospect list, and fourth on Law's. In addition to his exceptional fastball he features a curveball and is developing a change-up. His poor walk rate and high ERA in High-A may allow a buying window on this youngster in dynasty leagues. Once the performance catches up to the stuff, or perhaps if it catches up, he'll be a tough player to pry away from an opposing owner.

38: Anthony Rizzo/1B/Chicago Cubs/8-8-89/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Had a breakout 2011 despite major league struggles. Mid-20s homer run totals projected.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Rizzo found himself on the move again this offseason. Then-Padres general manager Jed Hoyer made a big splash with them in 2010, sending Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox in a deal that involved acquiring Rizzo. One of his first moves in the same position with the Cubs was acquiring Rizzo yet again.

He had a breakout season in 2011, putting up huge numbers in the Pacific Coast League. Hitter friendly environment or not, a .331/.404/.652 line is impressive. In 413 plate appearances he hit 26 home runs as well. He struggled in 153 plate appearances in the majors, striking out often (30.1 percent strikeout rate), and failing to hit for power. In reality, he failed to hit at all. He showed excellent plate discipline, but was over-matched by big league pitching. Rizzo has excellent power, but Kevin Goldstein mentioned in his prospect write-up that it comes partly as a result of a pull-happy approach. At his best, Rizzo uses the whole field and lets his natural power play.

He should start the year in Triple-A, with Bryan LaHair opening the year as the Cubs starting first baseman. A summer promotion is highly likely. Trading Petco Park for Wrigley Field is a dream move for Rizzo. Petco Park is hell on left-handed power, while Wrigley Field has enhanced power production 11 percent over the last three years according to the Bill James Ballpark Index.

October 2011: Rizzo has had a huge season in the Pacific Coast League. Unfortunately, numbers in the PCL are inflated due to friendly hitting environments, so take the raw numbers with a spoonful of salt. Scouting reports aren't all glowing for Rizzo; there are questions about whether he can hit for both power and average. His desire to hit for pop has resulted in more strikeouts and a pull-happy approach.

Possibly a positive to take away from Rizzo's numbers is a dominance against right-handed pitching and struggles against left-handed pitchers (his same-handed counterparts). If it is simply a matter of needing more exposure and repetition against them, Rizzo could take another step forward in his development. The biggest knock against Rizzo may just be his home ballpark. Petco is hell on left-handed batters, which is unfortunate because it will lower the ceiling on his greatest fantasy skill.

Two years younger than Paul Goldschmidt, Rizzo would rank ahead of him if they played if their games in similar home ballparks. Alas, they do not.

39: Jacob Marisnick/OF/Toronto Blue Jays/3-30-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Projected to offer a bit of power, speed and some average. No one standout fantasy asset, but a contributor in all facets of the fantasy game.
Scouting notes: March 2012: His tools run the gamut, and began to translate into skills this past season. Marisnick showed some power, and he projects to hit more home runs as he matures. There are questions about just how high his home run ceiling is, though, because his swing is currently conducive to roping line drives and not clearing fences.

He has above average speed, and he put it to good use, stealing 37 bases in 45 chances. His sky high BABIP of .371 last year suggests his .320 average was probably a touch lucky. That said, above-average runners tend to have a higher than average BABIP, and line drives have the highest average of balls put in play.

Marisnick would rank higher if his breakout didn't come while repeating Low-A. He was still age-appropriate for the level, but his stock will soar if he even comes close to repeating his stats in High-A. It's also probable that if his stellar play continues, he'll see Double-A before the end of the year.

October 2011: Scouting reports loved Marisnick's tools coming into the season, but they didn't translate onto the field in 2010. This season saw him turn the corner and put them into good use on the field, and turn many of his detractors into believers. All his tools project to be average or better. If he develops a bit more home run power, he can leapfrog most of the outfielders in front of him.

40: Josh Bell/OF/Pittsburgh Pirates/8-12-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: 2011 Draftee out of high school. No forecast.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Without his having played a professional game yet, there is little to add to Bell's scouting notes. He should begin his pro career in Low-A playing for West Virginia.

October 2011: Many considered Bell unsignable because he and his family wrote to all major league teams before the draft informing them he wanted to attend college at the University of Texas. Ultimately, the Pirates threw caution to the wind when the risk became minimal at the top of the second round, and the gamble paid off as he signed at the deadline.

Bell is a switch-hitter who most scouting reports describe as having been the best high school hitter in the draft. Scouts project him to hit for both average and power. He doesn't offer the same speed upside of Starling, but his chance of failure seems less than Starling's as he has succeeded frequently against the top high school competition available. Power that doesn't require selling out average isn't easy to find in fantasy leagues, making Bell's potential something to covet.

41: Eddie Rosario/OF-2B/Minnesota Twins/9-29-91/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: Power outburst in 2011. Projects to offer home runs at a solid clip, but poor walk rate is reflected in his low on-base percentage projection.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Rosario had a fine 2010, but nothing in his statistical profile foreshadowed his offensive explosion 2011. He crushed 21 home runs in 298 plate appearances at the Rookie League level. Put another way, he hit one home run in every 14.19 plate appearances. Comparatively, Mike Napoli hit one home run in every 14.4 plate appearances. Therein lies the problem with looking at stats without scouting reports.

Rosario isn't a hulking figure who projects to be a 30-plus home run hitter annually, but he does project to hit for above average power. He also runs well enough—17 stolen bases in 23 chances—to expect helpful stolen base totals in his big league future. He spent 2011 playing the outfield, but the Twins are transitioning him to second base. If he takes to the position change, and he continues to rake in full-season ball, he'll be a big mover on this list. Rosario will open the year in Low-A.

42: Zack Wheeler/SP/New York Mets/5-30-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Projection not as good as the scouting reports and he needs to lower his walk rate.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Wheeler's walk rate improved by leaps and bounds after he joined the Mets. Matt Eddy of Baseball America reports the gains in his control were a result of reverting back to his high school mechanics in July. He already misses bats, leaving him wiggle room in the walk department, but if he maintains his control gains, he'll be an absolute monster. He'll open the year in Double-A, and is creeping ever closer to breaking Giants' fans hearts in the majors.

October 2011: The Mets strengthened their farm system at the trade deadline by shipping Carlos Beltran to the Giants in return for Wheeler. Since joining the Mets system his walk rate has taken a giant step forward, dropping from 4.81 BB/9 to 1.67 BB/9. His strikeout rate has remained elite, and is supported by plus fastball and developing curveball and change-up. Both of his secondary offerings lag behind his fastball, and while neither is a plus pitch at this moment, they both have flashed that type of potential.

Adam Foster of Project Prospect offered a scouting report in May on Wheeler, and while the write-up is solid, the most interesting part is the embedded video of each of his pitches. He still has to tackle the upper minors, but his first two seasons have gone well and shown promise.

43: James Paxton/SP/Seattle Mariners/11-6-88/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Needs to further refine his control, but he should be an asset in strikeouts and hover around 9.0 K/9.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Paxton's route to affiliated professional ball was winding. He declared for the 2009 draft, and was selected in the supplemental first round by the Blue Jays. He didn't agree to a contract, and planned to resume his college career at the University of Kentucky. Unfortunately, he lost his college eligibility due to being represented by an agent, Scott Boras, in his contract negotiatons. He spent 2010 pitching in an independent league, and was drafted in the fourth round of the 2010 draft by the Mariners. He didn't sign in time to make his affiliated professional ball debut in 2010, and instead impressed debuting in 2011.

Paxton is a large, 6-foot-4 and 220 pound, southpaw with a power arsenal. He throws his fastball in the low-to-mid-90s, and can reach back for 97 mph when he needs it. His repertoire also includes a plus curveball, and a change-up that made big strides last year. Paxton used that pitch mix to confound Low-A and Double-A hitters alike, striking them out at a 12.41 K/9 clip. His control needs work, though, it was better after his promotion from Low-A to Double-A. Paxton was a non-roster invitee to the Mariners' spring training camp, and a long shot to win a rotation spot. He should start the year in the upper minors with an in-season promotion to the majors probable.

44: Gary Brown/OF/San Francisco Giants/9-28-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Projects to steal around 20 bases with a solid average and a handful of home runs in the coming seasons.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Brown capped his big minor league season with a lackluster showing in the AFL. In 55 plate appearances he hit just .220/.278/.300 with only three extra base hits, none of which were home runs.

One of the knocks on Brown following his college career was that he didn't walk as much as one would like for a potential leadoff hitter to. His 7.2 percent walk rate in High-A was passable, and leads to some hope he'll develop the “old man” skill of working walks. Unfortunately, he reverted back to being unacceptably impatient in the AFL walking just one time.

A small sample size warning for his AFL work is in order, and it is important to understand he may have simply been exhausted after a long season. That said, summarily dismissing his poor play in the AFL is probably taking it too far. It was Brown's first exposure to advanced pitchers, and that knowledge should be tucked away in the back of one's mind. He's set to open the year at Double-A with Richmond. If everything goes according to plan, he'll be pressing for the Giants center field job by early 2013, and attempting to nail down the leadoff job as well.

October 2011: The Giants' 2010 first round pick played tremendously in his full season debut this year. The next step will be succeeding against upper minor league talent. He should be on the fast track to the majors, and if his tools fully develop could be a top-of-the-order hitter. He may not offer more than a handful of home runs (though Kevin Goldstein suggested in a recent podcast he could flirt with 20), but his speed is a clear 80 on the 20-80 scale and should allow him to be a big stolen base contributor (he stole 53 this year). He makes contact at a high rate, and punished the ball in the offensive-friendly Cal League, hinting at being a batting average contributor in fantasy as well.

45: Christian Yelich/OF/Florida Marlins/12-5-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Oliver sees a blend of moderate power and speed with a decent batting average.
Scouting notes: March 2012: With new scouting reports available on Yelich, I no longer can say “I've yet to find a scouting report that describes his speed as better than average,” as I do below. His speed is rated as average to slightly better, and his base running instincts are excellent. He has pop, but doesn't project to have elite power even after he fills out. However, he'll offer enough power to be an asset in home runs at peak maturity.

His swing lends itself to high batting averages, but he'll need to close the gap in his platoon split if he hopes to avoid being exploited late in games. Yelich hit a robust .341/.413/.531 against right-handed pitching, but stumbled against southpaws, hitting just .256/.337/.391. Given time, I expect he'll make the necessary adjustments. Yelich will open the year in High-A, and could finish it in Double-A.

October 2011: His hitting grades out as a plus, but his power is somewhat questionable. He may develop above-average game power, but that remains to be seen as he fills out and physically matures. He did hit 15 home runs in 461 at-bats in Single-A, which is promising. He also stole 32 bases, but I've yet to find a scouting report that describes his speed as better than average. He was caught only five times, so he may be able to get the most out of that tool with intelligent base running.

He should be able to reach base often because in addition to his plus hit tool, he walks frequently (55 walks). If he continues to steal bases in the upper minors, or his power takes a step up, he'll shoot up this prospect list.

46: Brett Jackson/OF/Chicago Cubs/8-2-88/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: .250s hitter with playable teens power and speed.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Jackson is one of those players who is able to get away with a low contact rate. He has enough power and speed to be a 20/20 guy, and is a good enough defender to remain in the lineup should he go through a dry spell due to his high strikeout rate. More than one quarter of his plate appearances at Double-A or higher (780 plate appearances) have resulted in strike three.

On the impressive side of the ledger, in those same 780 plate appearances he has walked 13.2 percent of the time. Those in leagues that count OBP should bump Jackson a bit higher up this list as he'll have more value there than in standard scoring formats. His on-base skills could help him eventually settle into the top third of the Cubs order. As a veteran of less than 200 Triple-A at-bats, Jackson will likely open the year in Triple-A. He should reach the majors over the summer.

October 2011: He doesn't have any jaw-dropping tools, but he's average to above average across the board. He's hit his way to Triple-A, and succeeded there in spite of a high strikeout rate that may pose problems in the majors. He can walk some, he can hit for some power and he can steal some bags. In a lot of ways, he resembles a Drew Stubbs-lite to me.

47: Jonathan Singleton/1B/Houston Astros/9-18-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Excellent hitter with low-20s home run power and stellar on-base percentages.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Singleton is the one minor league first baseman I believe has “near superstar,” potential. He ranks lower than fellow first base prospect Anthony Rizzo because he has yet to take an at-bat above the High-A level, and he's further from reaching his ceiling. Singleton draws walks like a grizzled vet, and has kept his strikeout rate in check for a developing slugger, though, it did spike to 27 percent as a member of the Astros organization.

His in-game power lags behind his raw batting practice strength, but it is expected the gap will close with experience. Singleton will open the year in Double-A as a 20-year-old, and won't turn 21 until September. If he were to spend all of 2012 in Double-A, and all of 2013 in Triple-A, it is possible Houston's first baseman of the future could get his first cup of Joe in September 2013.

October 2011: Singleton has played first base since the Astros acquired him at the trade deadline, but he played some outfield in the Phillies system before the trade. He's a big guy, but athletic enough that scouts think he could man left field. His power projects to be a plus, and could be a plus-plus tool in the future. Despite his young age, he has already shown the ability to draw walks. If he's a first baseman, his ranking is about right, but if he's developed as an outfielder and sticks, he should be ranked a bit higher.

48: Oscar Taveras/OF/St. Louis Cardinals/6-19-92/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Breakout 2011 leads to projections of near .300 averages as soon as 2015.
Scouting notes: March 2012: After he played the entire year in Low-A, where he swung a scorching hot stick, the Cardinals challenged Taveras, sending him to the AFL. Taveras proved the Cardinals' confidence wasn't misplaced, hitting .307/.312/.413 with one home run and five doubles in 77 plate appearances. He failed to walk even once, but his showing as a 19-year-old against advanced pitching was plenty encouraging. Taveras will probably begin the year in High-A, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Cardinals opened him in Double-A.

October 2011: He put up video game numbers in Single-A this year, but will be tested in the Arizona Fall League. He didn't appear high on most Cardinals prospect lists coming into the year, but should see his name move up this coming year. He would rank higher, but not all scouting reports are bullish on his future stock, and see his advanced approach for his age being the biggest reason he has been so successful, not outstanding developing tools.

Others believe his total package gives him a reasonably high offensive ceiling. Such widely divergent scouting reports makes him tough to peg. If his hitting and power develop to 60 level, he should be higher, but if they fall flat and sit closer to 40, he probably doesn't belong on the list at all. Watch his Arizona Fall League performance, and more importantly, his larger sample of performance moving up a level next year.

49: Yasmani Grandal/C/San Diego Padres/11-8-88/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Two good years with a 2011 MLE line of .265/.341/.425.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Grandal is no longer behind fellow prospect Devin Mesoraco. That's the positive. The negative is that instead of calling Great American Ballpark his home, that distinction is now bestowed upon Petco Park.

As a switch-hitter, he won't feel the full brunt of the power-crushing effects left-handed batters do. That said, most of his cuts will come as a left-handed batter, and that has to be taken into account when projecting his fantasy home run output. He displayed a sound approach at the dish in his first full professional season, and should continue to hit for a high average so long as that approach holds while moving up the professional ladder. He finished 2011 in Triple-A, and he'll begin 2012 there. I expect the Padres to take a look at him after rosters expand in September.

October 2011: Grandal's surface numbers are more impressive than Wilin Rosario's, but the ceiling isn't described as being as high by most scouting outlets. He's also behind Mesoraco, further hurting his ranking. That said, he's a switch-hitting catcher with the potential for plus offensive contributions. Catchers have a wide variety of skills they need to hone in the minors, so they develop at different speeds. He may not take the same leap fellow Reds prospect Mesoraco made because of lesser tools, but even a slight jump in production would be reason for excitement.

50: Anthony Gose/OF/Toronto Blue Jays/8-10-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Monster stolen base projection with double-digit power, but ugly batting averages.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Gose's play in the AFL was essentially an extension of his play in Double-A all year. His .250/.348/.433 slash in the AFL was a near carbon copy of his .253/.349/.415 with New Hampshire in the Eastern League.

He understands the value of a walk, but struggles mightily to make contact. After inefficiency stealing bases in 2010, he became a great base stealer in 2011. While hitting is a completely different skill, if his growth as a base runner foreshadows his ability to be coached elsewhere, Gose could really turn the corner in 2012. He's primed to enjoy the friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League, but is stuck behind a crowded outfield on the parent club.

October 2011: Forecast doesn't like his defense, but most scouting grades suggest his best attributes are his range and arm in the outfield, and his speed. His hitting is what comes under the most scrutiny. Some reports suggest he'll be able to make enough contact to take advantage of his speed and post a decent average. Others see a guy who strikes out too frequently to hit for average.

He offers some pop, and is capable of drawing walks. If he's can get on base at even a moderate rate in the majors, he can be an impact stolen base threat with better than negligible power. If he isn't able to cut back on the strikeouts, he'll be a defensive-minded center fielder or fourth outfielder. Either of those scenarios would make him a fantasy non-contributor. The ceiling may not be high enough to offset the floor and justify this ranking. I'm buying in based on the leap he was able to make in stolen base success, and hoping that's evidence of him being coachable.

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 5:44am (10) Comments

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Roto Chat this Sunday, March 18

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:09am (4) Comments

Monday, March 19, 2012

Second look: Top 25 fantasy third basemen for 2012

Over the next week or so, in an attempt to catch up on fantasy season, I am going to do a top 20 or so list by position for the players who will either be eligible at that position under Yahoo! default standards to start the season or who are projected to gain eligibility within the first month of the season (e.g., Miguel Cabrera and Jesus Montero). The rules of eligibility for Yahoo fantasy leagues:

The following conditions apply to a player's position eligibility:
1. A player's position eligibility will not be adjusted prior to the beginning of the season. (If a player in spring training is playing a "new" position, that position will not appear until a player has met the criteria for a change.)
2. Players will not lose eligibility at a previously established position at any time. (For example, if a catcher-eligible player begins to play first base exclusively, he will remain eligible at catcher for the entire season.)
3. It is not possible to customize this setting within Custom Leagues. All leagues are subject to the same constraints.

Gaining eligibility at a new position:
If a position player makes five (5) starts or 10 total appearances at a new position during this season, he will become eligible to play that position in Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball. Pitchers need to make three starts to become eligible as a starter and five relief appearances to qualify as a reliever.

ESPN imposes a more rigorous default position eligibility standard (e.g., 20 games played at the position last season, 10 games played in the present season), so you may have to do additional research if you play ESPN fantasy to verify that players listed in these articles are in fact "position eligible" in your league.

These rankings are based on 5x5 standard Yahoo! Roto leagues. Rankings are not based on real-life value but fantasy value. Hence, players like Juan Pierre tend to have value for you closer to what Kenny Williams is willing to pay him in real life. Projections listed below are courtesy of Brian Cartwright's Oliver projection system. I recommend that you purchase a subscription, as the pre- and in-season updates are an invaluable fantasy tool.

My rankings are not exclusively based on Oliver's projections, however. Rankings are primarily determined based on total production by category, balance in production, and scarcity of production level. Because I am ranking players by position, positional flexibility is not taken into account in my rankings (though you should absolutely consider positional flexibility at the draft board).

Tiers represent groups of relatively fungible players, guys who if you traded me the guy at the bottom of that tier for the top guy would not require you to add "too much" value to pull off a trade. In other words, guys within a tier are relatively easy to trade for one another.

If you have any specific questions about my rankings, please post them in the comments.

Here are my top 20 fantasy third basemen for 2012.

TIER 1
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
1         Miguel Cabrera*     DET       .327/.415/.564
2         Jose Bautista       TOR       .268/.392/.553

TIER 2
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
3         Hanley Ramirez*     MIA       .295/.369/.457
4         Evan Longoria       TBR       .269/.357/.501
5         Adrian Beltre       TEX       .292/.333/.497

TIER 3
6         Ryan Zimmerman      WAS       .293/.364/.483
7         Brett Lawrie        TOR       .268/.322/.474
8         Pablo Sandoval      SFG       .300/.351/.498
9         David Wright**      NYM       .279/.358/.448
10        Alex Rodriguez      NYY       .264/.347/.462
11        Aramis Ramirez      MIL       .276/.333/.466
12        Michael Young       TEX       .302/.349/.447
13        Kevin Youkilis      BOS       .278/.382/.488

TIER 4
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
14        Mark Reynolds       BAL       .226/.326/.482
15        Edwin Encarnacion   TOR       .251/.320/.443
16        Martin Prado        ATL       .281/.325/.415

TIER 5
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
17        Mike Moustakas      KCR       .264/.308/.434
18        Ian Stewart         CHC       .226/.308/.422
19        Emilio Bonifacio    MIA       .272/.330/.351

TIER 6
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
20        Ryan Roberts        ARI       .245/.326/.397
21        David Freese        STL       .279/.336/.416
22        Chipper Jones       ATL       .258/.347/.410
23        Ty Wigginton        PHI       .239/.300/.382
23        Lonnie Chisenhall   CLE       .242/.300/.404

TIER 7
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
24        Chris Davis         BAL       .271/.325/.479
25        Pedro Alvarez       PIT       .243/.320/.435

Tier 1

Tier one is pretty non-controversial. Once he obtains third-base eligibility, Miguel Cabrera projects as the No. 1 overall fantasy third baseman because, despite a dearth of speed, he is a four-category monster. He annually appears atop the league leaderboard for batting average and runs batted in and has elite 30-plus home run power and plenty of runs contribution out of the middle of the Tigers' fearsome lineup.

The only real "risk" in drafting Miggy as your third baseman is that he never becomes third-base eligible. Now, the Tigers have been adamant about the fact that Miggy will be their Opening Day third baseman, but keep in mind a few things.

First, Cabrera has not played third base in a regular-season game since April 19, 2008. Second, he has a -5 career UZR/150 fielding score. Cabrera is only 29(!) this season, but defense is "the first thing to go," tending to peak in a player's early 20s, per historical aging curves. Considering he was not much of a third baseman to begin with (-6 UZR and -11 total zone in 2007, his last full season as a third baseman), who knows what he's capable now?

Third and finally, considering the first two points, the Tigers have no immediate need to play Cabrera at third base. They moved him off third because of his defense in 2008, and with Victor Martinez out for the year, even if you play Prince Fielder at first, you have an open designated hitter spot to hide Cabrera until 2012 (assuming the Tigers do not trade Martinez next offseason).

At most, the Tigers will only need to slot Cabrera at third base for one season, 2013. They'll certainly want to give him plenty of practice in 2012, which bodes well for leagues with low games-played eligibility thresholds, but how often they'll force play Miggy to play third, with Fielder and Jhonny Peralta taking up two-thirds of the rest of the infield, will likely depend on how often the opposing team decides to bunt the first week of the season.

That isn't to say Miggy will not get third-base eligibility for even the deepest of eligibility threshold leagues by the end of April, but it is a calculated risk that you need to be aware of, and potentially plan for, on draft day.

Jose Bautista legitimately offers monster power, but hitting for average is not really one of his tools. He rewarded his believers in a big way last year, even with a "down" second half (if you call a second-half pro-rated pace of batting .257 (.419 OBP) with 28 home runs, 88 RBI, nine stolen bases and 74 runs scored disappointing).

However, anyone expecting him to repeat a .290-plus batting average is downright foolish. A .270/35/10 performance with 200 runs-plus-RBI is certainly in the cards, but Bautista does carry some batting average risk. Pay accordingly, hold him confidently—just do not do so delusionally expecting a five-category guy.

Tier 2

Tier two is comprised of fantasy superstars who should easily contribute in four-plus fantasy categories in 2012. These are players who are arguably as valuable as the guys in tier one but carry some questionable risk that will necessitate some degree of relative discount in their services in comparison to tier one players.

I expect my Hanley Ramirez at No. 3 pick to be a bit controversial. He is coming off a career-worst season and two consecutive seasons of decline following several seasons of dwindling stolen base totals. Still, he is arguably the only true five-category player likely to have third-base eligibility in 2012. Ramirez's back allegedly is healed, and he's reported to camp ripped.

A 20/20 campaign should be no problem for Ramirez, who still put up a 10/20 in under 100 games last season, and if his back and shoulder are truly healed, there is reason to expect a major uptick in the batting average (.275 BABIP in 2011, career .339 mark).

The Marlins also seriously upgraded their team for 2012, and MLB Depth Charts is forecasting Ramirez to bat out of the No. 3 hole. That makes a .300/20/30/100/100 campaign entirely plausible. Health and questions of what portion of his two-year decline can be attributed solely to injury (that is no longer a worry) are the lingering question marks that keeps Ramirez outside of tier one.

Next comes the most volatile stud of the third-base group. Evan Longoria has the potential to do it all and has shown flashes of five-category production. He stole 15 bases in 2010, and nine bases in 2009. He also batted .294 in 2010 and has hit 113 home runs in 563 career games played (which averages out to just over 30 home runs per 150 games played). He also has elite on-base skills out of the middle of the Rays lineup, producing a combined 326 RBI over the past three years combined.

Still, Longoria has not been a five-category player in any of his first four seasons. In all honesty, he is likely to be a three-category monster this season (HR/R/RBI) with modest contributions in a fourth category (SB) without really hurting you in the fifth (AVG), but he has that four-/five-category upside and is still plenty youthful. (He turns 27 in October).

Expect Longoria to hit in the .270s with 10 stolen bases to boot, give or take a few of bags. You can already rely on him for home runs and RBI, and the Rays offense still looks potent enough to drive Longoria in 90-plus times over the course of a full and healthy season. Inconsistency is what keeps Longoria out of the first tier, along with modest health questions that a productive spring training should set aside.

Adrian Beltre is arguably the "safest" pick of the elite third baseman, and he is arguably a touch more valuable than Longoria because of this. He offers minimal stolen bases, but he should hit for a relatively high batting average (high .280s) with 25-30 home run power out of the middle of a deep offensive lineup that should easily net him 80-plus runs scored and 90-plus RBI.

It's hard to believe this is the player, just a few seasons ago, many people were so foolishly writing off as a washed up, "contract year only" guy, perpetuating the myth that Beltre was overpaid on the Mariners. The reason I ranked Beltre lower than Longoria is that he is an older health risk and because Longoria offers four-/five-category upside, all else being equal. Hamstring concerns and multiple injuries in 2011 that limited Beltre to 124 (very productive) games are what keep him outside tier one.

Tier 3

Tier three is deep, consisting of guys with lots of upside but serious question marks (talent, injury, etc.) surrounding their ability to reach their potential. If you could get any two of these three guys to mitigate the risk, you'd be golden, but doing so would cost way too much.

The Nationals belong on that TV show Hoarders for having Ryan Zimmerman locked up at third base long term with Anthony Rendon in their system. (They're also apparently hoarding players with the last name of Zimmerman(n)). That is such a nice problem to have. Zimmerman is not immune to injury—see 2012 and 2008 as examples—but when he's healthy, Z-pack is a consistent force.

Zimmerman offers batting average upside (.290-plus) with 25-30 home run power and moderate stolen base contributions. He also bats out of the middle of a Washington Nationals' lineup I expect bigger things from in 2012 with a rebound from Jayson Werth and more playing time for Michael Morse. Bryce Harper might even make an appearance by the end of the year. That means the potential for 200 R+RBI is not off the table, with the reasonable expectation of 180.

Few third basemen can tout 25-plus homer upside and batting average upside, which is what makes Z-pack so valuable. Let's just hope he can stay healthy this year!

Brett Lawrie is overrated and being overdrafted for what he is. Still, given the state of third base, he merits ranking as the seventh overall player at the hot corner. Just be aware that his current value takes all the profit out of the pick, leaving you totally exposed to the downside risk. Lawrie was never a "can't-miss" prospect until his explosion in the minors last season. As I noted a little over a month ago:

Lawrie was the Blue Jays' big prize for trading away talented starting pitcher Shaun Marcum. Heading into 2011, Lawrie was ranked the No. 40 overall prospect in the minors. His 2009 and 2010 seasons in Single-A and Double-A ball had been solid (composite .777 OPS in 2009 and a .797 OPS in 2010) but nothing special. He projected as a major league-capable player with a relatively modest, but appealing, ceiling...

...Lawrie's 2011 power breakout could be legit, but how legit is it? After posting a .180 ISO in Single-A and .154 ISO in Double-A, you have to wonder how much of his .308 Triple-A ISO and .287 major league ISO Lawrie can repeat in 2012, especially given his two hand injuries last season. I am not saying that he is not healthy by now; I am just noting the things you need to be aware of.

Oliver projects a solid .180+ ISO from Lawrie this year, with 20 home run potential if he stays healthy enough to accumulate 600-plus plate appearances. Oliver also forecasts a .280 batting average and 10-15 stolen bases. Those are undoubtedly strong numbers, and Lawrie, of course, has the potential to top them. I think Oliver's forecast is pretty spot on, though I would project Lawrie for a slightly higher batting average. You find me another .285/20/15-capable third baseman for 2012 not named David Wright, and I will call you a liar.

My thoughts and opinions on Lawrie have not changed since drafting that article, though it is worth noting that Hanley Ramirez is certainly " another .285/20/15-capable third baseman."

In that same article I quoted on Lawrie from, you might notice that Pablo Sandoval is ranked higher than Lawrie. So why is he ranked lower here? The answer has to do with reports that Sandoval showed up to camp out of shape. The haunting memories of 2010 are still too fresh in my mind. I was big on Kung Fu Panda last year, but worries about his weight have my expectations slightly tempered in 2012. But hey, I am not counting on him to prove me right.

David Wright has an abdomen tear. With Citi Field's dimensions being overhauled, I was projecting a solid bounce-back year for Wright. But with lingering health issues such as back problems, and now this abdominal tear, in tandem with a post-concussion-inflated strikeout rate that has eroded his once-bankable .300 batting average production, I'm not sure just how high I can be on Wright without looking too insane.

Third base is pretty shallow this year, which automatically makes Wright pretty mixed-league relevant regardless. Once you consider his 20/20 upside, even with a .270 batting average (I do not expect him to produce, at worst, a batting average much lower than that) and injury risk, Wright is a player that needs to be owned. Wright is certainly not worth spending "top money" on, and he's been drafted entirely too soon in most leagues (as a top-four third baseman) this offseason, but hopefully, for you late-drafting leagues, Wright's injury will seriously discount his services.

I am not taking the risk on Wright in 2012, but then again, I'm the same guy who refused to take the risk on Albert Pujols in 2009, Beltre in 2010, or Lance Berkman in 2011 even though I liked them a lot (despite injury and decline) in their respective preseasons.

Alex Rodriguez's slotting logic is pretty similar to Wrights, but he is older, potentially more injury-prone, and no longer offers the stolen base upside he used to. Does .280/25/8/100/100 seem like a reasonable ceiling? The floor has to at least be last year's .276/16/4/67/62 line, if even that high. Volatile injury risk is what keep Rodriguez's rank so low despite his upside.

Which Aramis Ramirez is going to show up in 2012? The 2011 version? The 2010 version? Will he be injured? And will he finally be able to stay productive when the team needs him most and when he is in the limelight—say, when Ryan Braun goes through an offensive slump?

These are the questions that qualify Ramirez's .280 batting average (without much OBP or speed to boot), 25 home run, and 90-100 RBI upside. That and a Brewers offense counting on Rickie Weeks to stay healthy and Mat Gamel to prove he can hit the ball.

Plenty has been written by me about Michael Young, who might qualify at pitcher next season at this rate. You can read my thoughts on him here and here.

As I also noted in my first baseman rankings, "[t]his might seem like a low ranking for Kevin Youkilis, but I just don't trust him to stay healthy." He's still plenty valuable to own in order to have a cool fantasy baseball team name like "We Kill You Before Youkilis."

Tier 4

By tier four, the players no longer just lack three-category upside, but they also have negative value in one or more fantasy categories (or, in the case of Prado, a lack of much positive value all around).

Mark Reynolds has 35-home run and 100-RBI upside. Why is he ranked so low? Because he has Adam Dunn-like batting average upside. You'll have to plan to offset his batting average drain in a big way to roster his otherwise cheap power.

Little known fact: Edwin Encarnacion is an anagram for "Adam Lind clone with OBP upside." A .260/25/100 season is quite plausible, but so is a lot less production. Encarnacion's dip in ISO might be a little worrisome considering that pop is his flashiest tool, but at age 29, given his June through August production, there's plenty reason to believe the power will uptick again in 2012. Oh, and he steals the occasional base.

Encarnacion is a great insurance policy for those who draft a Wright/A-Rod/Youkilis-type, and he could make a really solid showing as a corner infielder for your fantasy team this season.

Martin Prado offers the least downside in any single fantasy category, but he also offers minimal upside. Prado does a little bit of everything. He'll hit for a respectable, above-average fantasy batting average, struggle to put up a home run total in the teens, swipe five or so bases, and add maybe 140 very balanced runs-plus-RBI contribution to your bottom line. Losing a lot of his positional flexibility has drained much of his fantasy value, and he's no Ben Zobrist.

Tier 5

First and foremost, let's get this out of the way. I am not an Emilio Bonifacio believer. I just don't think he is bona fide. He might possess .270/30 upside, but as I explained last week:

He's always had a knack for speed, but his 2009 and 2010 combined output, over 200 games played, is still a less-than-enthralling 33 stolen bases (nine caught stealing), one home run, 100 runs scored and 37 RBI with a sub-.260 batting average. So color me skeptical when that player hits .296 with 40 stolen bases and five home runs over 152 games.

I view Mike Moustakas and Ian Stewart as flip sides of a coin for 2012. Oliver, ZiPS and other services project the two players for near identical OPS marks and similar home run, stolen base and RBI production rates. Moustakas will likely have an edge on Stewart in batting average (though I expect Stewart to hit in the low-to-mid .240s this year), but Stewart has more power and patience. Even with a high strikeout clip, 10-plus percent walk rates do not exactly grow on trees.

Stewart essentially has two full seasons worth of at-bats to his name, and that's entirely too few to write off a former first-round, top-10 overall pick whose minor league numbers have previously shown plenty of promise. The Cubs took a low-risk, medium-reward approach when they acquired Stewart this summer.

For the one dollar it will cost you to acquire him, Stewart is worth the low risk at a shallow position when he could return fantasy relevant production—potentially top-12 at third base if all were to go right. Think of him as Carlos Pena but with positional scarcity on his side. A .240/22/5 performance is in the cards.

Moustakas gets the edge, however, because he is younger and has a more recent track record of productive minor league productivity. I think he's very overrated, and he has an atrocious walk rate. I think what you saw last year is what you'll see this year, but with closer to a .180 ISO and a handful more strikeouts. Moose likely will cost you much more than Stewart at draft day on brand name alone, but my production expectations for the two are practically identical in leagues that use OBP or OPS in place of batting average.

Tier 6

No one in this tier really has the potential to light the world on fire, but each players offers enough modest upside or 1-2 category production to make a solid late-round flier. Ryan Roberts and Ty Wigginton have extra value out of their mutli-positional flexibility, but neither really does too much.

Roberts could get you double-digit home runs and stolen bases, and maybe even 140 runs-plus-RBI, but his batting average is likely going to stink. Wigginton offers solid pop and arguably 15-20 home run upside with enough playing time (though if he couldn't do it in Coors...), but his batting average will be even worse than Roberts, and his only "other" category of contribution, if any, is likely to be RBI.

David Freese is an overated guy with 15-17 home run power. Maybe it's because people always expect the injury-prone third baseman to break out, or maybe it's just because of the post-World Series hype, but I feel Freese is getting more love than his upside—maybe .280/15/70/60/2?—deserves.

Chipper Jones is Chipper Jones. OBP leagues should keep an eye on him. He's pretty likely to repeat his 2009-2011 numbers this season, if that sort of thing appeals to the type of league you play in.

Lonnie Chisenhall probably has the most upside of anyone in this group, but I question his ability to reach that potential, at least in 2012. His 2009 MLE was a .236/.287/.443 line, and 2010 wasn't too much better at .246/.308/.398. And last year? A .242/.299/.388 MLE doesn't seem good enough in my mind to warrant getting berated by Indians fans for claiming Cleveland has a long-term hole at third base.

Chisenhall does not project to do much at this point. His 2015 projected line based on career MLB/MiLB performance to date: .243/.302/.405 (.309 wOBA). He's not much better than Wiggington in my eyes, but at least Wiggington has proven himself capable of doing it at the major league level.

Tier 7

Chris Davis arguably belongs much higher than this. I have drafted him in a couple of my leagues, and he's got legitimate 25-home run power with the skills to hit .275 or higher. At the same time, however, I have historically put too much blind stock in Davis' potential. I can only write about him so many times before you reach the point where you just have to say, despite all your faith, that this guy needs to prove something before I actively recommend him again.

Pedro Alvarez rounds out the top 25 because he has legitimate power potential and solid walk stills but a questionable contact/strikeout rate that makes him a high-risk, medium-reward play. The presence of Casey McGehee certain complicates things and shortens Alvarez's leash, but his minor league production to date says he shouldn't be nearly as bad in 2012 and beyond as he was in 2011. Assuming you have faith and can get him for a dollar, now is the time to buy low for keeper leagues.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:08am (18) Comments

This week in (fantasy) baseball 3/12-3/18

It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a regular basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.

Andy Pettitte returns to Yankees

Like his old buddy Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte apparently decided the allure of playing baseball was too hard to resist after one year away from the game and announced his return to the Yankees this week. Pettitte, 39, was last seen in 2010, when he posted a 11-3 record with a 3.28 ERA and 1.271 WHIP over 21 starts.

How long will it take to get ready for action? Pettitte says he’s been keeping in shape over the offseason, but he won’t break camp with the team in time for Opening Day. Instead, he’ll spend the upcoming weeks getting his repertoire into shape and proving his left arm can stand up to the strains of pitching every fifth day. His return also could be delayed by Clemens’ perjury trial next month, at which Pettitte is scheduled to testify.

But perhaps most importantly for fantasy owners, Pettitte’s minor-league contract shakes up the back end of the Yankees’ rotation. CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda account for three spots, while Ivan Nova is a likely fourth.

The early storyline this spring has been a fifth-starter battle between Phil Hughes—who continued his strong spring Friday by posting four scoreless innings against the Nationals—and Freddy Garcia. Last week, I wrote that a healthy Hughes would have the advantage over Garcia in cracking the rotation, but now, a healthy Pettitte would likely have the upper hand over both of them.

Garcia also has spent the past few days dealing with a bruised right hand, which he suffered Wednesday after a comebacker struck him. X-rays were negative, but he’ll likely miss his next turn in the rotation, which certainly doesn’t help his chances for breaking into the rotation. As for Hughes, there’s still a chance manager Joe Girardi could move him to the bullpen if David Robertson’s foot injury lingers.

Carlos Quentin to undergo knee surgery

As if being traded to the Padres and the vast expanse of Petco Park wasn’t enough to bruise Carlos Quentin’s fantasy value, the 29-year-old right-fielder will miss four to six weeks after he undergoes arthroscopic knee surgery today. That obliterates his first month of the season, calls into question how well he’ll fare upon returning and doesn’t do the San Diego lineup any favors.

Granted, Quentin has yet to recapture the MVP form he achieved in 2008 when he blasted 36 home runs and knocked in 100 runs, but he still offered fantasy owners decent power production at a potential discount. Considering San Diego’s dearth of offense, anything Quentin provides as a middle-of-the-order hitter stands to benefit Cameron Maybin, Nick Hundley and Will Venable, in turn boosting their fantasy value.

As for the Padres’ left-field options, look for Kyle Blanks, Jesus Guzman and Chris Denorfia to gain playing time, with Blanks and Guzman in particular offering intriguing upside. Blanks was a popular sleeper heading into the 2010 season, but elbow surgery nuked his past two seasons, and he’s not yet assured of a spot on San Diego’s 25-man roster by the time spring training ends.

Guzman, on the other hand, will likely break camp with the team and could take advantage of some added playing time. Producing a .312/.369/.478 line in 271 plate appearances last year, Guzman, 27, played well in parts of four seasons in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but fantasy owners shouldn’t expect much power or steals from him if he does emerge as the regular starter in Quentin’s absence.

Royals lose Salvador Perez for at least three months

In a significant blow to fantasy owners, Royals catcher Salvador Perez last week suffered a meniscus tear in his left knee that will zap at least three months of his season. Part of a deep 2012 sleeper class at catcher, Perez, 21, was rewarded with a five-year contract extension recently after posting a .331 average in 158 plate appearances last year.

Brayan Pena will take over as the club’s primary backstop and will likely see extended playing time, as GM Dayton Moore has indicated he won’t deal prospects to acquire a bigger name at the position. Pena, 30, posted a .625 OPS last year in 240 plate appearances with just three home runs, so he’s strictly an AL-only option in deep leagues.

Mets' injury woes continue as David Wright strains rib cage muscle

As if the Mets need any more problems, David Wright’s availability for Opening Day took a hit last week when he received a cortisone shot in the left side of his rib cage for a strained rectus abdominis. Although the 29-year-old third baseman says he’ll be ready for the start of the season, it’s reasonable to believe the first few weeks of his season are in jeopardy, especially since Ryan Zimmerman missed two months last year after suffering the same injury.

Wright’s past few years—and well-documented problems with Citi Field—probably keep him just out of the top tier of third basemen anyway, but he’s probably not worth plucking until at least the third round of mixed fantasy leagues until more news on his ability to stay on the field comes in.

As backup options go, take a look at Justin Turner, who showed some flashes of batting ability during an up-and-down 2011, his first full season.

Other news and notes from around MLB

• Michael Morse continues to battle a lat strain that has kept him out of the lineup since spring training began. Meanwhile, a strained left ankle has shut down Adam LaRoche, whose return is currently unknown.

• Speaking of players yet to appear this spring, Chase Utley’s right knee has held him out of action this month. Utley, 33, finished 2011 with fewer than 400 at-bats after the same knee bothered him throughout the season.

• Chien-Ming Wang strained his left hamstring Thursday while fielding, leaving his ability to make the Opening Day roster in jeopardy. That’s a shame, since he’s pitched well so far this spring and looked good down the stretch for Washington last year. But even if he wasn’t faced with losing playing time, he was still entrenched in a battle with John Lannan for the Nationals’ fifth-starter job, so Lannan’s odds of having a regular gig to start the season have increased significantly.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:11am (3) Comments

Fantasy, trending now

All in on de Aza

His draft ranking sure hasn’t shown it, but come September, Alejandro de Aza might just be one of the biggest draft day steals of 2012.

Skepticism from drafters, to this point, has circled around his light power totals and lack of opportunity. While his power numbers do leave a little to be desired, the opportunity part seems to have been solved. He’s projected to start the season as the White Sox’ leadoff hitter—a slot that should afford him ample opportunity to make good on his base stealing ability and batting average potential.

With the 700+ plate appearances that batting atop the White Sox lineup is sure to bring, he should finish the season among the top 20 outfielders in fantasy. Regressing his on-base skills and lineup strength, de Aza should supply between 100-110 runs to go along with 60-70 RBI. Combine that with double digit home runs, a .290+ batting average, and 35-40 stolen bases, and you have quite a player.

Plugging this line into FantasyPlayerRater.com’s points calculator, he’d be worth about 2.7 roto points above average in 10-team leagues—exceeding such standouts as Andrew McCutchen (1.78 points, ADP: 25.67), Hunter Pence (1.89 points, ADP: 42.86), and Jay Bruce (1.42 points, ADP: 39.92).

His major league resume may be somewhat short, but that's fine. With a suprisingly low draft price (MockDraftCentral has his ADP at 228.65, while ESPN drafts have him at 225.7), he's a classic low-risk, high-reward play. This is a guy you want on your team—he's talented, has the opportunity, and comes extremely cheap.

One league I’m in lets members keep one player for 2013 at the round you drafted him in ’12. I took de Aza in the 19th—and I’m planning on having him lead my squad again next year for this highly discounted price.

There’s a bit of risk with any player taking over starting duties for the first time—scouting reports, attrition, expectations. But, de Aza’s a five-category contributor with a 400-plate appearance track record. He’s a great guy to bet on and you won't regret it.

Three-hole huge for Starlin Castro

For a fantasy shortstop, Starlin Castro is quite the complete player. He fills out the stat sheet quite well, with a good combination of average, speed, and even a little bit of pop. For Castro, the question mark is whether he can overcome a poor supporting staff to contribute the runs and RBIs to justify his lofty draft ranking (Mock Draft Central ADPMockDraftCentral ADP: 41.88, ESPN ADP: 57.9)

News that Castro will be batting in the three-hole (MLBDepthCharts) this season should alleviate those concerns. Though he doesn’t have the power typical of that lineup spot, it won’t hold back his ability to pile up the RBIs. In fact, the difference between him batting in the three hole and batting leadoff is substantial—about 20 RBIs (we regressed his RBIs to 75 in the three-hole, versus 55 leading off).

Those 20 RBIs are nothing to scoff at—FantasyPlayerRater.com has that difference in lineup spot contributing about a full point to his value in 10-team leagues. That point will come up big when you’re jockeying for position in the standings come September. Whether Castro can hold onto the three spot all year is another issue—but he’ll be all fun and games while he can.

Beachy could walk among league elite this year

While all the preseason hype this year has centered on the untapped potential of Stephen Strasburg and Matt Moore, Brandon Beachy's upcoming sophomore season has flown way under the radar.

And that’s good for you—Beachy is perhaps the biggest pitching bargain of this draft season. He's a potential No. 1 starter who has fallen far down the rankings to 114.15 according to MockDraftCentral and 135.3 in ESPN leagues.

Plugging in his plate discipline characteristics and batted ball profile, Beachy’s translated numbers point to a 3.00-3.10 ERA, 1.05-1.10 WHIP, and 9.5-10 K/9. Needless to say, this is an extraordinarily valuable pitcher. FantasyPlayerRater.com rates that profile as 5.53 points above average—comparable to Justin Verlander (5.31 points, ADP: 9.24) and better than Cliff Lee (4.00 points, ADP: 20.58).

Though he should be discounted somewhat as a pitcher taking on a full season load for the first time, Beachy is the exactly the kind of guy you want to bet on, having enough skill to finish among the top 10 pitchers of 2012.

Posted by Mike Silver at 9:03pm (12) Comments

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Razzball expert league roster analysis

Jonathan Halket is participating in an expert league run by Razzball this year that features well-known fantasy analysts from around the web such as Scott Pianowski, Andy Behrens, and Eric Mack. Jonathan could not be present for the first hour of the draft, so he had me (Jeff) proxy draft the first 10 players for him. Jonathan returned just in time to draft players 11 and 12 and finish out the rest of the draft for himself.

Due to a miscommunication on my part, Jonathan and I both ended up writing the analysis below. Rather than have that all go to waste, we figured the readers might be interested in some insight into the draft day mind of two analysts. Perhaps we're just being presumptuous.

First, the league dynamics. This is a draft (not auction) league with 12 teams, standard 5x5 scoring, and standard rosters save for the fact that each team needs only one catcher; this means five outfielders, corner and middle infielders, etc. The league is hosted on ESPN.

Here is the roster of players drafted. Each line represents a round, and the number to the left of the player's name is his overall pick number. For example, Adrian Gonzalez was the 11th player picked overall.

11 Adrian Gonzalez, Bos 1B
14 Ian Kinsler, Tex 2B
35 Matt Holliday, StL OF
38 Michael Bourn, Atl OF
59 Brian McCann, Atl C
62 Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle SS
83 Michael Young, Tex 1B
86 Yu Darvish, Tex SP
107 Cameron Maybin, SD OF
110 Matt Garza, ChC SP
131 Josh Johnson, Mia SP
134 Cory Luebke, SD SP
155 Lucas Duda, NYM 1B
158 Frank Francisco, NYM RP
179 Matt Thornton, CWS RP
182 Chris Sale, CWS RP
203 Ryan Howard, Phi 1B
206 Daniel Murphy, NYM 2B
227 John Mayberry Jr., Phi OF
230 Jonathon Niese, NYM SP
251 Carlos Pena, TB 1B
254 Ben Revere, Min OF
275 David Robertson, NYY RP
278 Ryan Doumit, Min C
299 Chris Heisey, Cin OF

Jeffrey's analysis

Pick No. 1: Adrian Gonzalez
Proxy drafting for someone is always hard, especially when you have the potential for fundamentally different drafting philosophies. Thankfully, draft over auction simplifies the complications of stars and scrubs (how I live and die) versus the merits of patient value hunting and the risk of leaving money on the table. (“The soup that got away,” for you Family Guy fans out there).

Still, even in a draft format, you have to ask yourself, and you have to ask it early on, whether you are going to pick the best player possible or strategize based on positional scarcity. This means making the choice in round one between drafting Ryan Braun (more raw value) over Troy Tulowitzki (lower absolute value, but high positional scarcity value). Particularly at a position like shortstop, where there are only a few elite options, even if those options are less elite in comparison to other players on the board, the choice sets up the rest of your draft.

Drafting Tulo early makes sense because he and Paul Goldschmidt in tandem are arguably a lot more valuable than Joey Votto and Derek Jeter. But if you draft Tulo in the first round and change your strategy 180 degrees a few rounds later, you might find your team loaded with underwhelming talent and a lack of value maximization.

Keeping this in mind, drafting 11th complicates things greatly. The earlier you draft, the more of a “choice” of which strategy to pursue you get—the best guy on the table or positional scarcity. It is no secret that, at least among the most elite players in fantasy, there is a noticeable dropoff between picks 1-4, picks 5-9, and the rest of the field. Few players have the potential to do what guys like Matt Kemp and Miguel Cabrera can do, and even fewer can do it with positional scarcity on their side.

When Gonzalez fell to me at 11, I felt it would be a disservice to Jonathan’s team not to take the best overall player on the board, even though he plays at the deepest position in (fantasy) baseball. I had two of the next four picks, and I seriously thought about drafting Ian Kinsler and either Hanley Ramirez or Evan Longoria and going the positional scarcity route, but I am a firm believer that Gonzalez was the last true “top-eight” guy on the board and that his fantasy value over either Kinsler or Longoria was worth sacrificing the opportunity to fill hard-to-fill positions with lesser elite players.

THT's player forecasting engine, Oliver, which can be accessed by subscription here, projects only 10 hitters it expects to be worth more than $30 by the end of the 2012 season using a 65/35 allocative budget split between hitters and pitchers: Kemp, Albert Pujols, Votto, Cabrera, Justin Upton, Braun, Gonzalez, Jose Bautista, Carlos Gonzalez and Giancarlo "Don't Call Me Mike" Stanton.

Gonzalez, being the best and safest pick on the board, just seemed to make the most sense, especially if you believe in a rebound in A-Gone’s home run output in 2012. Besides, it’s not like Jonathan wouldn’t be able to trade Gonzalez away at “market value” if he did not like my decision (which you cannot per se claim about a guy like Evan Longoria, who is more polarizing).

Pick No. 2: Ian Kinsler
In the world of fantasy baseball, it is absolutely no secret that I am the “expert” with the biggest mancrush on Ian Kinsler. I think he is more valuable than Cano (equally valuable if/when injured, in tandem with the right replacement player), and I own Kinsler in essentially every league I am in.

Based on my analysis, independent of position, Kinsler is more or less a lock to end up as a top 15-25 overall fantasy hitter this year given his expected batting average rebound. With positional eligibility on his side, Kinsler was a no-brainer choice. Considering Dustin Pedroia was still on the board before I nabbed Gonzalez, I had little fear, with two picks out of four, that I would not get Kinsler with my second pick.

Pick No. 3: Matt Holliday
Holliday’s down year was still pretty valuable. Over a career-low 124 games, some lost due to an appendectomy that I think skewed his early-season performance, Holliday still managed a robust .296 batting average with 22 home runs and a couple of stolen bases. Now seemingly entrenched as the Cardinals No. 3 hitter, there's no reason to think Holliday can't go .300/25/5/100/100 with upside to spare.

That’s elite overall production, and given the fact that a minimum of 60 outfielders get drafted in 12-team, five-outfielder leagues, he arguably fills out positional scarcity with somewhat bankable four-plus category production. Holliday was another no-brainer choice that I was shocked fell past pick No. 30, especially considering I just missed out on Adrian Beltre.

Pick No. 4: Michael Bourn
I am not the world’s biggest fan of Bourn, but I am seemingly ending up with him on most of the teams this year. I have historically undervalued elite speedsters with good batting averages, so 2012 just seems like the year to make the right change.

The two fantasy categories I always seem to do the worst in are runs scored and stolen bases, and I did not want to short Jonathan on either. Accordingly, I drafted the best all-around speedster left on the board (my No. 18 overall outfielder, and Oliver’s No. 13 overall outfielder).

Pick No. 5: Brian McCann
I wanted Mike Napoli, especially because this is a one-catcher league, but I narrowly missed out. Interestingly, Carlos Santana was drafted before Napoli. In my fantasy experience, getting an elite catcher like McCann, one who bats out of the upper middle of the lineup, this late is rare, and I did not calculate him to last much longer (Buster Posey barely lasted another round.) A .275 average and 25 homers with 160-plus runs plus RBI potential out of the catcher slot seemed too promising to let slip by.

Pick No. 6:: Asdrubal Cabrera
Having passed on Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes, and never having a shot at Tulo, I decided to wait a bit to grab a useful shortstop. I was a little worried when Starlin Castro and Elvis Andrus went off the board, but Jimmy Rollins, J.J. Hardy, Dee Gordon and Cabrera were still around.

Of the bunch, I like Cabrera the most as a guy who does a little bit of everything, and since I already had my “all speed” guy in Bourn, I did not need a Gordon to help fill a hole early on. Cabrera offers .280/15/15 production, and I got him around market value. Diversification of production is an underrated fantasy asset for players. Consider this a risk-averse pick at a scarce position that would be hard to fill if I took a risk for Jonathan and missed.

Pick No. 7: Michael Young
I hate Michael Young. He’s the kind of guy who is always productive, but I can never predict why. One year he’ll have an elite batting average. In another, he’ll hit 20-plus home runs. In another, he’ll steal a ton of bases. In another, he’ll rack up huge RBI totals. Young makes planning your team a headache, and his biggest tool is being in a stacked lineup with solid batting average skills—the least bankable type of production in fantasy.

Young offers 15-home run upside, the potential for double-digit steals, the chance at 200 runs-plus-RBI, and he should hit for an above-average batting average at the very least. Having struck out on any truly legitimate third baseman, Young just seemed like the best choice.

Only Aramis Ramirez and Young were left on the board, and after them, it was a huge dropoff in terms of what you could expect from your hot corner plug. That’s why I acted when I did, and I chose Young’s surrounding lineup over Ramirez’s inconsistent and injury-riddled 25-home run and above-average batting average ceiling.

Pick No. 8: Yu Darvish
Jonathan’s only proclamation to me was to fill out hitting and not draft pitching too early. Otherwise, he (foolishly?) trusted me to make those critical first-hour-of-the-draft decisions for him. I begrudgingly and obediently watched guys like Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw fly by at arguably sub-market points in the draft, but when our eighth-round pick came around, I couldn’t let the only other pitcher I comfortably expected to be worth over $20 in 2012 fly off the board.

That’s why I took Darvish, as I have in so many other leagues, confidently buying into Oliver’s major league equivalencies for his Japan numbers that make the first few years of Hideo Nomo’s career look like Dice-K's past three. Beyond the “will he translate” question, there might be some concern about Darvish’s durability in the Texas summer heat, but there’s no reason you can’t ride him out through an elite first half and flip him for someone else in July.

Pick No. 9: Cameron Maybin
With a minimum of 60 outfielders to get drafted (do not forget positional flexibility and the utility role), the outfield position quickly turns scarce in deep-league drafts. I had two solid guys in Holliday and Bourn, but players who were likely to be productive without hurting you in at least one category were starting to fly off the board. When I saw Maybin fall to me, I was pretty satisfied.

Petco is a better park for Maybin’s power stroke than the old Marlins stadium was, and he’s still young enough to grow out to 15-plus bombs in 2012. The Padres’ offense is not fierce enough to allow Maybin owners to legitimately bank over 150 runs-plus-RBI production, but in tandem with 40-plus stolen base production, Maybin looks like a poor man’s B.J. Upton or what people are expecting from Desmond Jennings in 2012—at a fraction of the price.

Maybe I bit a round too early in drafting Maybin, but it was worth avoiding the risk he would have been off the board some 20 picks later.

Pick No. 10: Matt Garza
Having filled out a good chunk of Jonathan’s hitting, I decided to turn to pitching to get another quality arm to anchor his staff with minimal risk. I debated taking either Anibal Sanchez, Cory Luebke or Max Scherzer—all of whom I like more than Garza—but I made the calculated decision that at least two of Sanchez, Luebke and Scherzer would be available by the time I got to pick next. With Ian Kennedy freshly off the board, Garza just seemed like the next-best starting pitcher option who likely wouldn’t be there 20 picks later.

For what it’s worth, per my expected WHIP calculator calculations, Sanchez and Garza are very, very close players in terms of talent shown last season and expectations for 2012. Per those calculations, Sanchez should have produced a defense- and luck-independent ERA of 3.10 with a WHIP between 1.187 and 1.212. Garza, meanwhile, clocked in similarly with an expected ERA of 3.13 and expected WHIP (xWHIP) range of 1.196 to 1.221. But that, of course, assumes Garza is the higher strikeout pitcher than he was in the second half of last season.

A look at Sanchez’s monthly strikeout rate (K%) and xFIP compared to Garza reveals just why, in a vacuum, I would prefer Sanchez:

April
Sanchez: 23.4% K%, 3.34 xFIP
Garza: 30.5% K%, 2.09 xFIP

May
Sanchez: 26.0% K%, 3.24 xFIP
Garza: 22.7% K%, 3.90 xFIP

June
Sanchez: 25.4% K%, 2.73 xFIP
Garza: 16.5% K%, 3.71 xFIP

July
Sanchez: 24.3% K%, 3.27 xFIP
Garza: 21.1% K%, 3.70 xFIP

Aug:
Sanchez: 19.7% K%, 3.75 xFIP
Garza: 26.1% K%, 2.98 xFIP

September
Sanchez: 26.6% K%, 3.24 xFIP
Garza: 21.5% K%, 3.30 xFIP

Of course we were not drafting in a vacuum, so Garza, whom I have come to like more and more in the offseason, just seemed like the better “value” pick here.

Jonathan's analysis

It was hard for me to enter the draft on the fly and get a quick sense of what was left on the board. It was even harder when you factor in that I was unfamiliar with ESPN's draft interface. At 90 seconds per pick, things were coming fast.

Fortunately, Jeff's expert drafting had left me in a pretty good position. I didn't feel like we had any major holes that needed swift attention. Since this league is a daily league, I felt comfortable going for high-upside starting pitchers who would often have particularly tasty match-ups. The plan was to go for a few starters with excellent skills who, if healthy, I would feel good about starting on a regular basis; then I could patch in good match-ups on a week-by-week basis.

Josh Johnson's an obvious risk/reward guy. If he's healthy, he should be great. In a weekly league where it is harder to play the waiver wire for starters, his injury risk discount would be higher. Here I felt that an 11th-round pick was good value.

Likewise, I feel like a reasonable "floor" for Cory Luebke is that he becomes a great match-up starter—all those Petco starts and any against week offenses. I'm high on skills, though, so I think he could become a solid regular in my rotation.

After the 12th round, I felt like I need to address two concerns pronto: power and saves. So in the next five rounds I got Lucas Duda, Frank Francisco, Matt Thornton, Chris Sale (obviously not a reliever anymore) and Ryan Howard. With five outfield spots, a utility spot and a corner infield spot, Duda's position flexibility allowed me to take a risk on Howard.

After taking Daniel Murphy for my middle-infield spot, and given that Jeff had picked up Young for third base, I knew we could sacrifice some batting average. So by the late rounds, I was looking for players who had good platoon splits (attractive since this is a daily league) and could give me some counting numbers. I went for Carlos Pena, John Mayberry Jr. and, with my last pick, Chris Heisey.

In a daily league, there's no reason to have an idle catching spot if you can fill it with something productive. So I grabbed Ryan Doumit to play there when McCann gets days off. I also think there's a chance Doumit ends up having value in a trade as a starting catcher in his own right. I threw in Ben Revere as a speed guy who may be a useful chip for trading later.

To round out my pitching staff, I grabbed Jonathon Niese and David Robertson. Niese has the skills to put together a great season with decent strikeout potential. Robertson has all the qualities I want in a middle reliever: high strikeout rates, solid ratios and an outside chance at a few saves during the season. On days where I'm not starting a full roster, he'll definitely be in my lineup.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:11am (15) Comments

Cramming the smart way

The Boy Scouts’ motto is to always be prepared, but we’re not all boy scouts. If you’re one of the many out there who has a draft in a few days but who hasn’t done much in the way of preparation, this article is for you. I’m not going to provide you with a crash course in draft prep but rather some advice on how to spend your limited preparation time most wisely.

I consider myself a good test taker, and because I got that reputation, I was often sought for advice in regard to taking the SAT. Many of those who asked me about it hadn’t really prepared and began freaking out as the test crept up. The first piece of advice I always gave people in that situation is to focus on information and knowledge that you can guarantee you will use. This means focusing on breadth of knowledge instead of depth, and focusing on strategy and familiarizing yourself with scoring systems and such as opposed to trying to cram as much content into your head as possible.

The first instinct many of the frantic students had was to begin studying vocabulary lists, as that was a major piece of many of the SAT review books. Similarly, a frantic fantasy leaguer may be tempted to start reading as many articles as possible, gobbling up any list of “sleepers” his or her Google search pings back. This is exactly the wrong approach. Instead, bring your attention to higher-level issues.

Understand your league scoring and settings
On the SAT, one of the most important things people needed to learn was the math of guessing—when it was to your advantage to do so. In fantasy baseball, one of the first things to acquaint yourself with is your league settings. If you’re not in a traditional 5x5 league, here is your first opportunity to start identifying value. Sometimes, there is categorical imbalance in the settings chosen.

Does your league scoring disproportionately value rate stats? Do you have a very low innings limit? Do you use on-base percentage instead of batting average? Two catchers? These are all opportunities to identify players with enhanced value in your particular league.

Focus on grouping players into tiers
Instead of trying to read in-depth on every player, take a look at ADPs or projected draft prices and try to identify patterns within positions. For example, here are a few patterns I’ve noticed this year. First basemen aren’t as plentiful as often thought, and second base is deeper than people think. Shortstop is very thin, while thid base is top-heavy, but not deep.

Within these positions you will also find additional patterns. Take shortstop, for example. You have a big three, then a handful of fairly similar decent options, and then not much to be excited about, minus a few interesting gambles.

A general rule of thumb by which one can often abide is to avoid being the drafter who breaks the barrier between tiers. If there are five players whose auction value all project to be within four dollars, more often than not, you will get a better bargain buying the second-to-last player in that group than buying the first player in that group. Jeff Gross recently published a series of articles that focuses on breaking players into tiers at each position.

Devise a general strategy
It’s important to approach a draft with a plan. Some of the overall principles guiding your strategy will likely come from any insight you glean from analyzing your league setup. Other principles will be guided by insights derived from taking your bird’s-eye approach to the player pool. Maybe you want to fill your middle infield early. Maybe you don’t like the back-end closer options. Thinking strategically can help force you to turn your opinions into actionable knowledge.

Make cheat sheets for steals and saves
Steals and saves are the two single categories in most limited supply. Make sure you have a list of each team’s projected closer as well as the next-in-lines for the most tenuous situations. Compile a list of players likely to steal 20 or bases. If it gets late in the draft and you find yourself behind in these categories, you should be able to find a cheap player to fill this need. Plus, given the thin supply of these categories, you want to track as they come off the board.

Set some benchmarks
If your league is a repeat league, it should be synched to the previous years’ standings. Look at what it took to win each category the previous season and get a feel for what statistical totals are required to compete in each category.

Understand the type of player you are
Are you quick to wire? Do you have an itchy drop finger? If you don’t think you can’t be the first to act on closer news, you might want to draft more or better closers. If you don’t have a lot of patience, you may not want to draft unproven younger players. Think about how to assemble a team that matches your personality. This is also a way to differentiate similarly priced players on grounds not explicitly tied to having intimate knowledge of their skill sets, spring performance, etc.

Plan to make use of the draft clock
While skill is one side of the production equation, opportunity is the other. If you are in a draft, start anticipating who the highest-ranked available players will be when it’s your turn. Then you can do some quick cramming. Are there injury issues? Is there a plan to shuffle their prior batting order position? Will playing time be an issue?

If you haven’t had a chance to do much research in advance, this is one way to narrow the player pool to those on whom you will likely have to actually make a decision. Many players are not viable options for your team, either because of need or because of what other drafters do. If you spend your cram time reading deeply on a player, it goes for zilch if you wind up never having to make a decision on that particular player.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:12am (0) Comments

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Fantasy focus: Danny Duffy

Harry Pavlidis (of the Dispatch section) and I have been going back and forth on various young starting pitchers we expect to break out in real life and fantasy this year. Using advanced metrics, minor league data and PITCHf/x, we plan to give an encompassing look at what you can expect from these players in 2012.

Harry kicked things off with a PITCHf/x look at Danny Duffy. Now it is my turn to put the fantasy spin on Duffy. In the next article in this series, I will look at Harry's first breakout player—fantasy zombie Brian Matusz.

I am an unashamed Danny Duffy fan. Last year, I pegged Duffy as a post-All Star starting pitcher break breakout candidate for the American League (the National League break out pitcher that I identified was Javier Vazquez).

The reason I liked Duffy so much last year was his monster pedigree and strong minor league track record. As a "big boy" lefty, Duffy's put up a cumulative 2.65 ERA with 407 strikeouts to only 110 walks (a superior 3.7:1 rate). Duffy showed electric strikeout stuff with above average control that stayed the same or improved with every level jump of his career (well, at least until he reached the majors).

By the time Duffy reached Triple-A last year, he was striking out 28 percent of batters faced while walking fewer than six percent in the hitter-friendly PCL league. Duffy throws a four-seam fastball that consistently, and comfortably, sits in the mid-90s, and he comes armed with a deeper-than-most five pitch arsenal (albeit, only a couple are "plus pitches" at this point). That gives him a lot of weapons to work from not only mechanically, but psychologically.

Put that all together, and you have monster major league potential. From a fantasy perspective at least, velocity plus strikeouts plus control plus weapons plus recent PCL success equals huge sleeper potential. Remember that Mat Latos guy? Or Jordan Zimmermann. Or Brandon Beachy (who had a much shorter record of success heading into 2011)? Okay, so those guys are not lefties, which works to Duffy's advantage, but you get the point.

A look at Duffy's first half major league numbers showed that he had caught some bad breaks, and that he was stringing together a series of refined starts that brimmed with the type of potential he showed in the minors. Of course, history is history, and Duffy did not end up breaking out as I projected. And his second half numbers (6.41 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9) ended up worse than his first half numbers (52 IP, 4.85 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9). Does this mean I was just way off base?

Well first off, 105 innings of your first taste of major league play is nothing to get too down about. When a prospect first reaches the major league level, I look more at the basics, the underlying stuff, before I look at the results. Provided there is some translation of the tools and talent flashed in the minors, you could put up a 10.00 ERA over 100-plus innings in your rookie season and I would still love you. I remind you again of Jordan Zimmermann and Mat Latos.

There was not a whole lot of minor league to major league translation, with a sub-average 7.7 percent induced whiff rate (8.6 percent major league average) and 51.9 percent first pitch strike rate (59.4 percent major league average), but Duffy showed brilliance at times. His five starts heading into the All-Star break last year were a good example of this. Overall, Duffy looked a little raw and overmatched at the major league average, but he still looked pretty strong for a rookie—which is encouraging.

Part of the reason I am discounting Duffy's overall season performance and relatively lackluster peripherals is fatigue. Duffy's career high in total innings pitched was 126.2 innings, back in 2009. Duffy "retired" for a few months in 2010, and ended up pitching only 62.1 innings that season. Last season saw Duffy ultimately reach 157.1 innings. That's almost 100 innings over his previous season load.

Evidence of fatigue appeared after the All-Star break. As Harry noted in his article on Duffy, "Duffy's fastball speed declined in late July, recovering briefly before declining steadily through his last start." Further, as Harry notes, "Duffy's highest pitch count came in that final start on Sept. 6, throwing 119 after not crossing 105 in his other starts."

Now that's not to highlight any substantial injury risk concerns. A 100-inning jump is hefty, but 157 innings is not to the level of abuse for a guy, even one who retired for part of a season, who has been a starter his entire minor league career. Furthermore, given Duffy's healthy mix of pitches and power fastball, his breaking ball usage, despite his strikeout rate, isn't skewed like Madison Bumgardner's or Bud Norris'. To the contrary, this fatigue highlights the fact that Duffy didn't reach his potential because he was not able to build up the necessary durability to break out in the second half of last year. Six months of offseason rest should get him ready to go for the beginning of the season with plenty of that potential still brimming.

So what to make of Harry's conclusions about Duffy's stuff still needing refining and Duffy needing to build up durability in 2012 (making Duffy more likely a 2013 breakout candidate)? Harry observes the following:

Duffy's fastball is above average in whiff rate, pop-up rate and flyball rate compared to other fastballs. His change-up is mostly average but his curveball doesn't miss too many bats but yields plenty of ground balls. At least in 2011, that is. He's yet to develop a swing-and-miss secondary pitch, and that's going to hold him back. You can't pitch on fastballs alone in a big league rotation. Or not for long.

If he's going to rely on his impressive power, he would benefit in the long run by further developing his two-seamer, which was ineffective in yielding worm killers in its limited use. With his high arm slot, a true sinker isn't likely to emerge. He may get more ground balls out of a cut fastball if he were to develop one.

The long and short—Harry is concerned about Duffy developing and refining a quality breaking pitch to make his laser beam four-seamer more effective. The curveball is not cutting it—at least not yet—though it is a groundball machine. Does this mean Duffy is a mere wait and see project?

Well, as Lucas Apostoleris points out in the comments, Duffy is also working in a cutter to his arsenal. Depending on how that pitch, plus the further development of his curveball, pans out in 2012, Duffy could start showing strong results this season. He is a guy to keep an eye on in April.

I would not recommend drafting him in shallow leagues, or for more than $1 at this point (though it will be interesting to see what Duffy goes for in AL Tout Wars this weekend), but people in keeper leagues need to particularly be paying attention to what Duffy does early on. If he starts showing more of what I discussed during the 2011 All-Star break, I would recommend taking an early flier on him to prevent him from landing in the hands of an opponent. But I would not recommend consistently starting him until he shows the world that he's put it all together and developed in the ways that Harry identified in his article.

In hindsight, I think labeling Duffy as my breakout player for 2012 might have been a little premature. After all, Oliver's major league equivalency forecast is surprisingly bearish, projecting a mere 4.84 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 for Duffy in 2015 based on historical performance to date. He's certainly got the potential I love, but durability questions and a developing breaking pitch are short term wild cards. The addition of a cutter, if effective, will certainly make things interesting for the Royals' current fifth starter in 2012, however. A "this year" breakout is not out of the cards, though again, as Harry notes, 2013 might be the better bet.

Duffy has "number two" starting pitcher projectability with some upside to spare depending on how his groundball-inducing curve develops. A few years ago, guys like Bud Norris, Jorge De La Rosa and Scott Baker were king. If you could cobble together a roster of underrated guys with high mid-three ERA potential, high 1.2s WHIP production and good strikeout rates, you were set. But with everyone in the league seemingly posting a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP these days, Felipe Paulino-like guys have become spot starters at best.

What separates Duffy is a good blend of strikeout potential and historical control over his mix of pitches. Unlike a cobbled-together roster of flawed pitchers with elite discreet category production, Duffy projects to do some of it all. Average groundballs, lots of whiffs, and minimal batters on base. Control is going to be the make-or-break of Duffy's fantasy relevance outside the development of his secondary pitches. If Duffy commands the zone, he's going to succeed. If he is too wild, his upside is going to be Bud Norris, and as much as I love Bud, that's not going to make Duffy too relevant an everyday starting pitcher in most mixed formats.

Thus, for the forgoing reasons, I humbly request you add Danny Duffy to your watch list immediately.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 1:26am (4) Comments

Spring flings

Anyone who thinks spring training stats are wholeheartedly dumb, I’d like to introduce you to Michael Morse. After the 29-year-old blasted 15 homers in less than half a season in 2010, he continued his torrid pace the subsequent spring, painting himself as a worthy sleeper and affirming (perhaps wrongly) his previous season’s performance. And what an affirmation it was. He slugged nine homers in 66 at-bats, and followed said spring up with 31 dingers and a .300 average. Not bad, Morse.

Of course, that’s an incredibly small sample of meaningful spring stats: one single player. I could find hundreds of breakouts, slumps, tumbles and rises that can be correlated to superb springs. And on the contrary, I can find hundreds more that meant absolutely nothing.

You need to know what to be looking for, of course, and I have my eyes on a handful of springs that mean something to me. I thought of the idea and threw together a makeshift list on my twitter (@fishfle) which I will expand upon below.

Whether it’s an uncharacteristic home run rate, a pathetic showing at the plate, or a leash that was thinned, there are a handful of reasons the following “bad” spring trainings mean something to me. Likewise, there are a lot of “good” spring training showings that are worthwhile of consideration and dissection, whether it’s because they set a player up for a promotion, sealed him a job, or prove to me that an injury is far in the rear view mirror. Let’s jump in.

Bad, yet meaningful, springs

Tyler Pastornicky’s leash just got shortened
Pastornicky was entrusted with the starting shortstop gig on the Braves this offseason despite zero major league at-bats, a testament to both their thrift and his excellent minor league numbers. Lo and behold, though, Pastornicky allowed low-minors straggler Andrelton Simmons, a 22 year old speedster who still hasn’t touched Double-A, to enter the picture and serve, seemingly, as a check for Pastornicky. And he deserves one after a 5-for-40 showing (equating to a .125 batting average) with one single walk and only one stolen base (his calling card). I’d be worried if I were Tyler Pastornicky.

Devin Mesoraco didn’t buy himself any at-bats
Mesoraco enters 2012 in an undefined role, seemingly stuck behind Ryan Hanigan in Cincinnati, but looking at 300+ at-bats per some projections. I’d take the under—perhaps well under—after an unimpressive cup of coffee in the majors last year and an equally anemic spring. Given that he plays for Dusty Baker, hater of all that is young, and that he hit .180 in his 53 late-season at-bats and .136 in his 22 at-bat cameo this spring, I wouldn’t touch him in fantasy leagues this year.

Justin Morneau looks overmatched
There was some talk this offseason and spring—from Twins camp—that Justin Morneau may be at the end of the road in his career, which was/is badly derailed by concussions and other injuries. He’s followed up his weakest showing in the majors, a .227/.285/.333 triple-slash last year, with an equally underwhelming (if you even want to call it that) spring training, where he’s garnered only three hits in 30 at-bats, good for a .100 average. That’s not going to cut it.

Roy Halladay’s home-run rate is uncharacteristically high
His velocity is down, and in his own words, “"I'm 34 and (with) 2,500 innings, it does take a while to get going.” Chalk this up to my paranoia if you will, but it’s not just the 6+ ERA that has me scared. Hell, you can throw that number out for all I care. Doc has given up five homers in a mere 13+ innings. For illustration’s sake, he gave up 10 round-trippers last year in 233+ innings. His fastball had a negative pitch value last year for the first time since 2003, and if his velocity diminishes on said pitch just one mile per hour, the biting 91 mile per hour cutter will be the same speed as his heater, which has been historically in the 92 range; thus, the cutter would likely be far less effective. I’d be worried enough to pass on him for another ace early—there’s too much money tied up in a Halladay investment to carry any doubt. I’ll take the Cy Young winner from last year, please.

Good springs that mean a lick

Jeff Samardzija earned himself a rotation spot
Always possessive of a nasty slider, Samardzija’s main hindrance was his subpar control. His career BB/9 mark of 5.30 just wasn’t going to cut it as a starting pitcher, but by all accounts, the Cubs are going to give him a shot based off his advances last year and his gleaming spring training. His 1.61 K/BB rate in 2011 was not impressive by any means, but was a far cry from his previous 0.45 mark. Couple that with his 9:0 strikeout to walk ratio this spring in 10 six-hit innings, and the suits in the Cubs' front office are believers. Thus, I am too.

Juan Nicasio proved the gruesome neck injury to be behind him
Nicasio suffered an injury that could’ve well killed or paralyzed him last August. So what is he doing on this list? Rocking. His 9:2 strike to walk ratio in 12 innings is fairly indicative of his true skill level, and his Double-A numbers should provide all the context you need: a 10.01 K/9 ratio supported by a mere 1.59 walks per nine innings. The kid’s got talent and has sealed his rotation spot with a solid spring showing. Cheers to that.

Zack Cozart is as healthy as can be
A hyperextended left elbow ended Cozart’s September run, where he turned heads with a couple of long balls and a .324/.324/.486 triple-slash in just 11 games. All is well in Cincinnati camp, though, as Cozart went 12-for-29 in his springtime games. A clean bill of health, a hot bat, and a job sealed, all of which is supported by solid minor league numbers. Sounds like a 26-year-old breakout to me.

Starling Marte may have set himself up for a mid-season promotion
So the kid can play. One would assume that Marte is one of the central figures in the Pirates plan to compete in the next several years after an incredibly impressive showing in Double-A. He boasted speed (24 stolen bases), power (12 home runs), average (.332), leaving only plate discipline to be desired (a 3.8 percent walk rate). Marte backed up his power-speed-average showing last year with a .520 average, three homers, and two steals in just 25 at-bats. For fun, those extrapolate to 72 homers and 48 steals over 600 at-bats, and while I’m obviously kidding about such potential, he can fit into the Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Carlos Gonzalez, and Andrew McCutchen category of triple-threat outfielders one day; that is, as soon as he gets the opportunity. Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and the aforementioned McCutchen are all occupying spaces in the Pittsburgh outfield and Nate McLouth is hoping for a bounce-back as a fourth outfielder. If Marte mashes in Triple-A, he could force the Pirates’ hands in giving him at-bats. If Tabata or Presley stumble big time, then watch out.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:15am (3) Comments

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Friday, March 16, 2012

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Tier 6

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Monday, March 19, 2012

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Tier 6

Tier 7

Andy Pettitte returns to Yankees

Carlos Quentin to undergo knee surgery

Royals lose Salvador Perez for at least three months

Mets' injury woes continue as David Wright strains rib cage muscle

Other news and notes from around MLB

All in on de Aza

Three-hole huge for Starlin Castro

Beachy could walk among league elite this year

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Jeffrey's analysis

Jonathan's analysis

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Bad, yet meaningful, springs

Good springs that mean a lick