THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:58am (4) Comments

Friday, May 18, 2012

AL Waiver Wire: Week 6

Dayan Viciedo| Chicago White Sox| OF| ESPN: 0.4 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 8 percent ownership
YTD: .237/.262/.407
Oliver ROS: .265/.310/.430

The man Hawk Harrelson calls Tank has his share of faults. He isn't patient, walking in just 2.5 percent of his plate appearances, and chasing 39.2 percent of pitches outside the strike zone (league average this season is 29.4 percent). He's striking out at an all-time high, albeit in a short major league career, and he's hitting a ton of ground balls. Finally, he's being slotted near the bottom of the White Sox order, which limits his opportunities to score runs and drive them in.

With the negatives out of the way, let's move on to why Viciedo needs to be rostered in a higher percentage of leagues. He has huge raw power, much of which is derived from his big body build. He has already crushed six home runs this year, and is on quite the tear, hitting a home run in three of his last four games. He has also collected multiple hits in three of those four games, and with only one strikeout in that time frame, could be finding his groove at the dish.

There are few ballparks that are as friendly to right-handed home run power as U.S. Cellular Field is. Pair Viciedo's home run happy digs with his plus power and you have a recipe for an easy 25 plus home run season. Owners would be hard pressed to find cheaper power available than that which Viciedo provides.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all large mixed leagues and AL-only formats as well as some shallow mixed leagues.

Xavier Avery| Baltimore Orioles| OF| ESPN: 0.4 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 0 percent ownership
YTD: .238/.304/.381
Oliver ROS: .237/.286/.332

Avery has long been considered more athlete than baseball player. He began translating his athleticism into usable skills in the Arizona Fall League (AFL), which I discussed in an AFL update last November. He has carried over his solid showing in Arizona to 2012, opening the year at Triple-A Norfolk before earning a call-up to the Orioles to replace injured left fielders Nolan Reimold and Endy Chavez.

I looked at Avery in depth for the Fantasy Baseball Cafe on Tuesday, so rather than rehashing the long version of what he brings to the table, I'd suggest reading that article.

In short, Avery is a speedy prototypical leadoff hitter. He's not afraid to work a walk, and while he has yet to steal a base for the Orioles, he did steal eight in eight chances for his Triple-A club. He has played in all five games since being summoned from the minors, and he has hit in the leadoff spot in four. The one game he did not bat leadoff was against Yankees southpaw CC Sabathia, the only left-handed starter the Orioles have faced in that time frame. He was slotted ninth in the order for that game.

He hasn't been over-matched in his limited taste of the majors, and so long as he is hitting atop the Orioles order, he has a chance to be an asset in not only the stolen base category, but also runs.

Recommendation: Should be owned by owners in need of steals in large mixed leagues and AL-only formats.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia| Boston Red Sox| C| ESPN: 4.3 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 18 percent ownership
YTD: .272/.299/.533
Oliver ROS: .236/.293/.424

Since I wrote Saltalamacchia's obituary as the Red Sox starting catcher in week one, suggesting that the team may turn to Ryan Lavarnway instead, he has come to life at the plate in a big way. In the last 30 days Salty is slashing .319/.333/.597 with four home runs in 72 at-bats.

He remains impatient, and he continues to strike out often, but he is hitting for power, and is a part of a Red Sox lineup that is fourth in the majors in runs scored. He's doing the bulk of his damage against right-handed pitchers, sitting occasionally for backup Kelly Shoppach against southpaws. On the favorable side of a platoon, Salty is proving to be valuable to fantasy owners.

Owned in far fewer leagues than J.P. Arencibia, Salty is essentially his fantasy equal. As long as he is getting regular playing time, he slots in the 10-15 range of catchers, making him ownable in 12-team mixed leagues, and long gone in two-catcher formats. Owners in single catcher leagues that are employing the cheap backstop strategy would be wise to look Salty's way.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all two catcher leagues, all AL-only leagues, and all single catcher leagues with 12 or more teams.

Wei-Yin Chen| Baltimore Orioles| SP| ESPN: 15.8 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 19 percent ownership
YTD: 2.66 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2.86 BB/9, 6.55 K/9, 33.3 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 3.66 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9

The Oliver projection system liked Chen more than I did coming into the season. Oliver is getting the better of me thus far, and having taken a look at his PITCHf/x player card at Brooks Baseball, I'm beginning to warm up to Chen.

His four-seam fastball and sinker sit in the low-90s on average, good velocity for a left-handed starting pitcher. Both pitches have well above average whiff/swing rates, with the sinker's rate being exceptionally high. His pitch location graphs in two-strike counts show that he is no stranger to going up the ladder with his fastball to attempt to induce empty swings.

The trade-off is his low groundball percentage, which will likely eventually lead to a few more taters than he has yielded in the early going. In addition to his four-seam fastball and sinker, Chen throws two breaking balls, a curveball and slider, as well as a third offspeed offering, a change-up. Of the non-fastball pitches, his curveball is the only one that results in empty swings at an above average rate. Neither the slider or change-up are hopeless pitches in regards to fishing for a strikeout, but neither would be classified as a put-away pitch at this juncture.

Chen has faced some stiff competition to date, and has been up to the challenge. He has allowed no more than three earned runs in seven starts, and has hit that total only one time in a turn against the Red Sox at Fenway. Four of his seven starts have come against top five run scoring offenses, with one start against the Red Sox, one against the Rangers, and two against the Yankees. He was outstanding in two of those starts, and didn't embarrass himself in the other two.

It will be interesting to see how the league adjusts to Chen as more tape and information is available, but it should be noted that he was better in his second start against the Yankees than in his first. That start provides encouragement that he won't turn into a pumpkin when batters see him a second time. He won't carry fantasy staffs, but he should be a reliable option to round out them out in larger mixed leagues and AL-only leagues.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all large mixed leagues and AL-only formats, and should be owned in some shallow mixed leagues.

Ryan Cook| Oakland A's| RP| ESPN: 1.8 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 13 percent ownership
YTD: 0.00 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 4.58 BB/9, 8.24 K/9, 46.5 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 4.13 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9, 6.3 K/9

One of the feel-good stories of 2012 has been the play of the A's. General manager Billy Beane overhauled the roster during the winter, trading away young starting pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill as well as young closer Andrew Bailey in an attempt to get—you guessed it—younger and cheaper.

In the midst of a rebuild, it is a bit surprising to see the club one game above .500, and ahead of the offseason's big spenders, the Angels, in the American League West. All that said, the A's aren't going to contend for a playoff spot, and should be sellers at the trade deadline. Teams are always in need of relief pitching, and Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes should provide Beane a couple of trade chips to continue the A's face lift.

Balfour began the year as the club's closer, and has since been demoted in favor of Fuentes. Neither has been the best reliever for the A's in 2012, though. That distinction is held by Cook, who has yet to yield an earned run. Cook was acquired from the Diamondbacks as part of the Cahill package, and he has been used in late-inning, high-leverage situations regularly.

He began his professional career being developed as a starting pitcher, but didn't truly flourish until the Diamondbacks turned him into a reliever full-time last year. He dominated at the Double-A level, pitched respectably at the Triple-A level, and struggled in less than 10 innings in the majors for the Diamondbacks.

As the stats would indicate, he has been much better this season. Cook possesses a live arm that generates two fastballs that average better than 95 mph. He flashed a change-up on occasion last year, but has thrown only four this year. When he's not lighting up the radar gun, he is throwing his slider.

In spite of a pitch mix that should show a platoon split, he has been equally tough on right-handed and left-handed batters. There is a good chance that the A's will eventually look to Cook to close games, whether that is because they trade Balfour and Fuentes or not. Owners in need of saves should act now before a change in ninth inning duties occurs. Meanwhile, Cook will provide cheap ratio help, some strikeouts, and possibly a few vulture wins and saves.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues in which non-closing relievers have value, and should be stashed by save-needy owners in large mixed leagues and AL-only leagues.

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 5:40am (4) Comments

NL Waiver Wire: Week 6

Anthony Bass | Padres | SP | 17 percent Yahoo ownership | 6 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 2.87 ERA / 1.13 WHIP / 8.6 K/9
Oliver ROS: 4.10 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 6.3 K/9
Bass is the latest bullpen-to-rotation convert in San Diego (in the same vein as a one Cory Luebke) whose profile raises questions of why he wasn’t in the rotation in the first place. While his strikeout ratio is likely unsustainable, Bass is finding mostly sustainable success with a groundball rate above 50 percent. His ERA is 2.87 with a normal strand rate and three plus pitches—his 3.20 xFIP means regression will be minimal.

Soon, hitters will start making more contact with Bass—his rate is well below average. That isn’t to say he won’t continue to thrive in a massive home park with an above average defense.
Recommendation: Worthy of an add in all formats.

Gregor Blanco | Giants | OF | 4 percent Yahoo ownership | 7.9 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .283 / .371 / .400
Oliver ROS: .245 / .336 / .340
The near-30 journeyman found success at the major league level last year, where he was essentially league average at 2.28 WAR/162 games, and this year, his offense has jumped with an increased walk rate. It’d be easy to dismiss it as unsustainable if he hadn’t have posted spiked rates in his brief Triple-A service time last year, but it looks legitimate. With a .400 on base percentage (sure to fall, but still impressive), Blanco should steal more than 6.5 bases per 100 at-bats.

He should handle leadoff duties for the Giants most of the time with his ideal mix of speed and patience, and should be a boon to fantasy rosters for the remainder of the year.
Recommendation: Worthy of an add in deeper mixed leagues and NL-only formats.

Bobby Abreu | Dodgers | OF | 3 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.3 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .255 / .300 / .382
Oliver ROS: .261 / .359 / .408
Abreu has stolen 20 bases in each of the past 13 years yet hasn’t swiped a single base in his 60 plate appearances this year. That’ll change, and his plate discipline should return to incredibly consistent career norms, too. I’d wager that the playing time jam in Los Angeles led to some pressing on the part of old Bobby, but with Matt Kemp on the DL, he should find a comfort zone at least temporarily in Chavez Ravine. Buy him now, worry later.
Recommendation: Worthy of an add in all formats.

John Mayberry Jr. | Phillies | OF | 5 percent Yahoo ownership | 2.8 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .234 / .255 / .319
Oliver ROS: .254 / .304 / .436
Laynce Nix hit the DL the day of my Week 5 column, which leaves a vacuum of playing time that Mayberry is likely to fill. I say likely because Mayberry was promised a full-time gig at the beginning of the season by manager Charlie Manuel, yet has found himself on the lineup bill for only 20 games.

In the past seven days, he’s hit a homer, driven in three runs, and hit six times in 23 at-bats, which constitutes as improvement across the board. Power will come, as his lifetime .216 isolated power can vouch for.
Recommendation: Worthy of an add in deeper mixed leagues and on NL-only rosters.

Everth Cabrera | Padres | SS | 0 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.0 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: No stats accrued
Oliver ROS: .233 / .302 / .307
Cabrera was once the hyped prospect who stole 73 bases in Single-A ball and was on the fast track to the majors. But a speedster who doesn’t hit or field with much success rarely survives at the major league level, especially when his success rate with steals hovers around 70 percent and was at 63 percent in his most recent major league stint. While it doesn’t seem like he’s figured out how to hit sustainably and consistently—he’s thriving off of batted ball luck in Triple-A currently—he is nonetheless putting up video game numbers, and can provide steals if and when the Padres clean house.
Recommendation: Worthy of a stash on all rosters that crave speed.

Anthony Rizzo | Cubs | 1B | 3 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.8 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: No stats accrued
Oliver ROS: .255 / .324 / .474
New year, same story with Anthony Rizzo. He’s mashing at Triple-A, yet has made no apparent progress that might carry over the major leagues. Perhaps new seasoning, a new mindset, or competition in the form of Bryan LaHair will push Rizzo to new, replacement-level heights. He’s striking out slightly less than last year, and walking slightly less as well—and while his power will play better in Chicago, expectations should be held in check. He’ll get some burn though; LaHair can be pushed to the outfield and the Cubs have a typical Cubs record. Rizzo will hit a few homers when he's up, for sure.
Recommendation: Worthy of a stash in all deeper mixed formats and NL-only leagues.

Trevor Bauer | D-Backs | SP | 6 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.3 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: No stats accrued
Oliver ROS: 4.97 ERA / 1.43 WHIP / 8.4 K/9
Bauer’s made an appearance on this column before, but his promotion seems around the corner, and thus he should be picked up if he’s still on your league’s wire. While his 4.8 walks per nine innings leaves a lot to be desired, he made a clear adjustment in his May 11 start and walked a season-low one in seven sterling innings. He also struck out nine, and has given up only seven hits and hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last two starts, totaling 14 innings.

With Patrick Corbin only mildly impressive in his four starts and with Joe Saunders predictably slipping, room may open up quickly for Bauer if he keeps pushing improvement like he has. Triple-A, here he comes.
Recommendation: Worthy of a stash in all formats.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:48am (5) Comments

The daily grind 5-18

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

Today's grind

There are several pitchers you can try. Some options are better than others.

Marco Estrada against the Twins tops my list for today. I'm using him in two leagues.

Jarrod Parker takes on the Giants in what newsmongers call the battle of the bay.

Daniel Bard will face a fairly impotent Phillies lineup.

You could reach even further and take Alex White against the Mariners or Philip Humber against the Cubs. Both are fine match-ups, although both pitchers have exhibited reason for concern.

Andy Dirks sees Charlie Morton today. He should be owned outright for now.

Raul Ibanez gets a friendly match-up against Bronson Arroyo.

Dexter Fowler is starting to crop up on waiver wires. He faces Kevin Millwood at Coors, so pick him up liberally.

Rajai Davis should be in to face the lefty.

Tomorrow's grind

Roster Drew Smyly. He's owned in 39 percent of leagues so he's available to somebody. He faces the Pirates tomorrow. Use him tomorrow and then keep him.

Christian Friedrich makes his third favorable match-up start. It's also his third big league start. Someday, he'll face a real lineup, but the Mariners won't provide that challenge tomorrow.

Jeanmar Gomez against the Marlins isn't a terrible match-up if the juicy ones above aren't available.

Keep using Ibanez. This time it will be against Homer Bailey.

Eric Thames sees the inflammable Miguel Batista.

Ryan Sweeney should pop a couple hits against Joe Blanton.

Hang on to Dirks against A.J. Burnett.

Reliever watch

It was yet another one of those nights...

Aroldis Chapman blew the save in the seventh inning yesterday.

Brandon League blew his third save of the year.

Rafael Betancourt took the loss after allowing a two-run home run to Justin Upton in the ninth.

Yesterday’s results

James McDonald was helpful: 5.2 IP, 11 K, 4.76 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

Zach McAllister's outing was similar, but less exciting: 5.2 IP, 6 K, 4.76 ERA, 1.41

Juan Pierre was 2-for-5 with one run.

Thames was 1-for-4 with one run.

Ibanez was 0-for-3 with a walk.

Dirks was 1-for-3 with a home run, one run, one RBI, and one walk.

Challenge

I'll make the usual offer. Get me up to 270 Twitter followers and I'll make sure you have TDG picks through the weekend.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:33am (0) Comments

Sunday, May 20, 2012

The daily grind 5-20

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

Today's grind

There are some pitching choices for today, but all have their share of warts.

Anthony Bass might be the best choice out there. He's 25 percent owned and faces the Angels. Bass is available in none of my five leagues, although I own him in two.

If you're feeling adventurous (perhaps very adventurous), you could try Max Scherzer against the Pirates. He's 64 percent owned, but he's on the waiver wire in three of my leagues so I'm assuming advanced leagues are more likely to see him on the wire.

Wei-Yin Chen has a nice match-up against the Nationals. Most of the Nats' best hitters are lefty.

If none of those guys are available for you, Derek Lowe faces the Marlins. I'd stay away, personally.

Andy Dirks. I'm firmly on the band wagon. He's quickly becoming unavailable at 37 percent owned. This might be his last day appearing in this column for awhile.

I keep waiting for Eric Thames to find another gear. He faces Dillon Gee today so the match-up is tasty.

I've been completely overlooking David Murphy because I thought he was more widely owned. With only eight percent ownership, expect to see him mentioned more frequently. Oh, and he faces Jordan Lyles.

Rumor has it that Carlos Gomez is returning today. Rumor also has it that Jason Marquis is starting for the Twins. I don't see why they would activate Gomez if they didn't plan to start him, but don't be surprised if he sits.

Tomorrow's grind

I don't know what to tell you. Felipe Paulino faces the Yankees tomorrow. Are you comfortable with that match-up? Because that about covers your choices.

Jamie Moyer has a history of dominating the Florida Marlins, but who knows how he'll fare against the Miami product.

If you can find a Nationals lefty to start against Kyle Kendrick, do so. They're all snapped up where I work.

I went to recommend Josh Reddick and found him 78 percent owned. That leaves Seth Smith who's only four percent owned. He faces Jerome Williams.

Thames faces Jeremy Hellickson, which isn't an awesome match-up but at least he has the platoon advantage.

Reliever watch

Kenley Jansen blew the save on Friday but vultured the win.

Sean Marshall appears to have lost the closer gig in Cincinnati. He had a rough outing yesterday but was pulled before he could blow the save.

Yesterday’s results

Let's just say, the last two days have gone VERY badly from a pitching perspective.

The hitters performed quite admirably. If you went with Rajai Davis on Friday, you were rewarded with two surprise home runs.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 8:34am (2) Comments

Monday, May 21, 2012

This week in (fantasy) baseball 5/14-5/20

It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a weekly basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.

Fantasy infirmary

• Emilio Bonifacio sprained his left thumb Friday, sending the majors’ stolen-base leader to the disabled list. In his place, the Marlins recalled former Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan.

• The exact nature of Lance Berkman’s right knee injury wasn’t made clear Sunday, but regardless, he’ll be out of action for at least week eight, as the Cardinals’ first baseman was placed on the DL. Sunday, Berkman said the injury felt similar to the ACL tear he suffered in 2005, so this could be really, really bad. While he’s gone, welcome 23-year-old Matt Adams to the big leagues, as the first baseman put up a .340/.375/.603 line with nine homers in the Pacific Coast League thus far in 2012 and could emerge as a bright young talent this season.

• Joining Berkman on the Redbirds’ DL is outfielders Allen Craig, who suffered a left hamstring strain this week, Jon Jay, who’s dealing with shoulder soreness, and hurler Kyle McClellan, who’s out with an elbow injury.

• As if the Phillies’ 2012 injury woes couldn’t get any worse, Vance Worley is down with bone chips in his right elbow and will be gone for at least the upcoming week. Kyle Kendrick (5.96 ERA, 1.675 WHIP, 5.6 K/9) has assumed his place in the rotation, and while he’s been mostly dreadful to start the year, it’s worth noting he’s dealt with a .341 BABIP and 63.5 percent left-on-base rate, numbers that should improve over time.

• Jose Valverde’s week was torpedoed by a lower back strain, but it’s possible he’ll be available for duty in week eight. If not, Joaquin Benoit (2.70 ERA, 1.620 WHIP, 14 K/9) would be the most logical choice to pick up Tigers save opportunities.

• A shoulder issue landed Brandon McCarthy to the DL, which could open up an opportunity for Brad Peacock, considered the A’s best pitching prospect. On the other hand, Graham Godfrey (5.06 ERA, 1.375 WHIP, 3.9 K/9 in three 2012 major league starts) was pulled early from his Triple-A start on Friday, so it’s very possible the 28-year-old will re-join Oakland’s rotation.

• Although he picked up a win, Stephen Strasburg left after five innings Sunday with right bicep tightness. Strasburg and manager Davey Johnson insisted after the game that the injury isn’t serious, so he should be in line to make his next start.

• A calf injury was supposed to knock Ryan Doumit to the disabled list this week, but a favorable MRI has led the Twins to keep their infielder on the active roster—for now. That’s a shame, since Doumit, 31, was providing fantasy owners with production at the thin catcher position, but he might be something of a risky play in week eight.

• Jeff Niemann was diagnosed with a fractured right fibula last week, which will erase him from the minds of fantasy owners until at least late June, if not later. Alex Cobb, 24, sure looked ready to hold down the rotation spot for the time being after posting seven strong innings Saturday, earning the win against the Braves. As someone who posted better than a strikeout-per-inning rate during the last two seasons at Triple-A, Cobb is definitely an intriguing pick-up in mixed leagues right now.

• When Danny Duffy was pulled from a start earlier this month in the first inning with an elbow strain, fantasy owners feared the worst, and with good reason: the Royals’ impressive lefty will undergo Tommy John surgery to fix a torn ulnar collateral ligament, annihilating his 2012 season.

Minor developments

• When was the last time a Red Sox season started so frustratingly for fans? After all the melodrama, bullpen meltdowns and Bobby Valentine opinions that have marred the team’s first few weeks, the shining light of Will Middlebrooks will be demoted to Triple-A to make room for a returning Kevin Youkilis.

Obviously, it’s good to get the impressive Middlebrooks regular playing time, but this move hurts fantasy owners, since a) Middlebrooks was crushing the ball, and b) Youkilis’ best days clearly are behind him. It goes without saying that owners with the requisite roster space should hold onto Middlebrooks with the expectation that another injury eventually lands Youk on the DL and gives the 23-year-old some more PT and the major league level.

• Last year, Gaby Sanchez made the All-Star team, finishing with a .266/.352/.427 line with 19 home runs and 78 RBIs. For him to make the All-Star team this year, he would have to … Okay, he’s not going to make the team this year, especially after the Marlins sent him down to Triple-A over the weekend. It likely won’t be a long-term move, but it’s symptomatic of a .197/.244/.295 season that has been completely disappointing for fantasy owners thus far.

• Speaking of former stars who will be donning minor league uniforms this week, Adam Lind was demoted by the Blue Jays and placed on waivers. Ouch.

• Chris Parmelee might have some decent potential at the major league level, but his career suffered a setback earlier this week when the Twins optioned the first baseman to Triple-A.

Closer moves

• Sean Marshall has carved out an impressive major league career for himself as one of the National League’s best setup men over the past two seasons, but 2012 was not his time to emerge as a full-time closer, apparently. It might be, however, the year Aroldis Chapman emerged as a full-fledged star, which he’ll now have an opportunity to prove as the Reds’ new closer.

Chapman, of course, throws cheddar of the highest order and has been dominant as Marshall’s caddy to start the year (3-0, no earned runs allowed, 0.656 WHIP, 16 K/9 in 21.1 innings). Consider him a potentially high-end closer and someone who, if he hasn’t been scooped up in your league already, is a high-priority addition in fantasy.

• Those of us who were so certain David Robertson would succeed Mariano Rivera in New York should have guessed that in a season where pretty much everybody’s closer has been replaced, not even the Yankees would be spared from a second shakeup. Robertson, placed on the disabled list with an oblique issue, will have to fight Rafael Soriano for the closer’s job when he returns, as the former Rays fireman has been solid thus far in the role.

Anger management

• For ballplayers with short fuses (and tremendous star potential), Brett Lawrie’s outrageously lenient four-game suspension for last week’s helmet-throwing incident will hopefully provide a good precedent should anyone threaten the physical safety of umpires down the road. After missing the weekend series against the Mets, Lawrie should be ready to contribute full-time in week eight.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:02am (2) Comments

The daily grind 5-21

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

Today's grind

Thin list of choices for today.

Felipe Paulino is pitching well, but he is scheduled against the Yankees. I'm starting him in a couple leagues where I'm behind on my innings requirement, but I don't feel good about it.

Any fantasy victory is hollow if you don't use Jamie Moyer at least once. He's set to face the Miami Marlins today.

Seth Smith has a solid match-up against the surprisingly effective Jerome Williams.

Eric Thames has a mediocre match-up against Jeremy Hellickson, but at least he has the platoon advantage.

Tomorrow's grind

R.A. Dickey is set to take on a feeble Pirates club. His next start is against the Padres so consider hanging on to him.

Juan Nicasio will face the Marlins.

David Murphy has a strong match-up against Hector Noesi.

Matt Adams will face Edinson Volquez. In case you haven't been keeping track, the Cardinals just purchased Adams' contract. He's set to be the strong half of a platoon with Matt Carpenter.

Rajai Davis should start against Matt Moore.

Reed Johnson will probably start against J.A. Happ, although the above options are better plays.

Marlon Byrd gets a lefty tomorrow. He's done well against southpaws this season, at least when I pick him.

Reliever watch

In a rare turn of events, I failed to uncover any major reliever news.

Yesterday’s results

Those who chose their own adventure with Max Scherzer were amply rewarded with a win: 7 IP, 15 K, 2.57, 0.71 WHIP

Anthony Bass pitched well but failed to take the win: 6 IP, 6 K, 3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

The Wei-Yin Chen bubble burst: 4.1 IP, 5 K, 12.46 ERA, 2.54 WHIP

In retrospect, I have no idea why I even mentioned Derek Lowe. That said, he had a fine outing but still took the loss: 6 IP, 2 K, 3.00 ERA, 1.17 ERA

Andy Dirks was 0-for-4. Keep owning him though.

David Murphy pulled out the boom stick with a 1-for-4 night, two runs, one RBI, one home run, and one walk.

Carlos Gomez was 1-for-2 with one run.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:02am (2) Comments

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

The Verdict: Collusion - if it quacks like a duck…

Generally speaking, people play fantasy baseball for fun. Sure there is an opportunity for financial gain and bragging rights through the competitive nature of the activity. But the reason most people play fantasy baseball is for the enjoyment it brings as an extension of the love of baseball and the desire to interact collectively with friends, family, colleagues, peers and complete strangers.

As we all know, fantasy sports has become an extremely profitable industry and affords many opportunities for people to earn significant money. But deep down, the most passionate fantasy baseball players participate in leagues because they enjoy it, regardless of whether the league costs $0, $25, $100, or $1000.

Irrespective of whether your league is governed by a constitution or other written set of rules, I have argued that there is a generally accepted code of conduct that all fantasy players should adhere to with respect to playing in good faith and fair dealings in the spirit of competition. There should be a mutual respect afforded amongst fantasy players when it comes to interactions within a league. I realize that this sounds a bit idealistic and may even be unrealistic in certain circumstances. However, it is absolutely necessary in order for leagues to be sustainable from year to year.

There are myriad disputes that can arise within a fantasy baseball league, including unfair trades, improper rule interpretations, abuse of discretion by a commissioner, etc. Of course, dealing with the collection and distribution of league money will always be the most contentious issue there is because that could have real legal implications.

In terms of the day-to-day administration and functioning of a league, there is no more serious offense than collusion. Unfortunately, collusion is not easily discernible outside of written proof. But there are telling signs that can indicate it exists. You and your league members should know how to handle those situations, because if ignored, it could completely undermine the integrity of the whole league.

The Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment defines collusion as "a secret agreement or conspiracy, especially for fraudulent or treacherous purposes." Collusion requires the involvement of two or more people with the collective intent to benefit from circumventing the rules. Collusion can manifest itself in many forms, but there are two particular scenarios that are most common in fantasy baseball leagues.

The first scenario involves two or more teams orchestrating an inequitable trade to stack one team's roster in an effort to bolster their chance of winning prize money. In return, the money would be shared with the co-conspirator(s). The second scenario also involves roster stacking where two teams manipulate the waiver priority list so that one team drops a player that would normally not be dropped in order to let another team have the first opportunity to add him as a free agent. Granted, each case must be looked at individually taking into account all of the circumstances. Not all scenarios with these fact patterns are collusion. But if things like this are happening in your league, you may want to investigate further.

People in fantasy baseball leagues attempt to make uneven trades all the time. In keeper leagues, trades that are facially uneven may be approved because of the very nature of keeper leagues where people opt to sell high priced talent in an effort to build for the future. The criteria used to analyze the fairness of trades in a keeper league is different than that of a non-keeper league. Thus, not all uneven or inequitable trades are indicative of collusion. There must be something else inherently illicit going on between multiple teams.

It is quite rare that a league commissioner or anyone else would be able to prove that collusion exists. On a personal note, I actually did obtain proof of a team attempting to collude in one of my fantasy baseball leagues back in 2002. A league member was trying to solicit "partners" in the league by agreeing to make questionable trades in exchange for monetary gain. Unfortunately for him, he made these solicitations on AOL instant messenger, and the other league members were honest and noble people.

They rejected the overtures and sent me copies of the IM conversations so I had proof of what was going on. Once this was discovered, I ruled that the colluding team was prohibited from making any more trades during the season. If he won prize money, he would still be entitled to it. But he was immediately removed from the league after the season was over. Did I handle it the right way? Perhaps, but that is open for debate. I did what I felt was best for the league at the time.

Because obtaining actual proof of collusion is unlikely, you need to dig deeper to find out what, if anything, may be happening between the suspected league members. A closer look at the personal relationship between the league members is a good start. However, the fact that two people engaging in a questionable trade are either friends or family members is not demonstrative in and of itself that there is collusion.

It is helpful to know how each of the league members know each other and what their relationships are with the commissioner, who in all likelihood was the common denominator in bringing them into the league in the first place. You should also look at the trade history of the suspected members, if any exist. In addition, you should consider each team's place in the standings and their patterns of roster management and transactions.

But remember, before casting aspersions and accusations against anyone, you should have a solid basis for your suspicion. When the Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment analyzes cases involving suspected collusion, the Court views the evidence in the light most favorable to the accused. This is because an act of collusion is one of the most serious fantasy sports crimes that can be committed.

Without actual proof, we must look at the totality of the circumstances in order to determine whether it is more likely than not that there is collusive conduct. Collusion can exist in many forms, some of which are not overtly offensive to the league. But the mere act of conspiring to evade the rules in order to receive a benefit of any kind should never be tolerated. If you suspect teams in your league are colluding, bring it to the league commissioner's attention and seek intervention.

The fact is that it is virtually impossible to prevent collusion. You can't necessarily stop or prevent two people from attempting to collude. The best thing you can do is be aware of what is going on in your league and consult with the commissioner if you are suspicious. It would be equally as offensive if you unjustly accuse innocent people of collusion, so you want to be sure you have your facts and evidence in order before taking the next step.

If the commissioner agrees that there is evidence of collusion, then he should take action by undoing whatever trades or transactions were made, preventing further moves between the teams from being made, and making an instant decision on the future status of these teams in the league.

Posted by Michael Stein at 4:18am (0) Comments

Which lineups should be feared?

As fantasy baseball players we develop certain rules that we use as shortcuts when making personnel decisions. Stream pitchers against the Padres at home or avoid the Rangers lineup are two common examples. Admit it, you use these, too.

Everything is constantly changing in the baseball landscape though, so every so often it's a good idea to make sure the stats still support the rules. To do this I checked out the FanGraphs team leaderboard, which shows us how many runs each team is scoring. Here are the top 10 scoring teams in 2012:


+============+=====+
| Team       |	R  |
+============+=====+
| Rangers    | 235 |
| Red Sox    | 221 |
| Cardinals  | 217 |
| Braves     | 216 |
| Blue Jays  | 200 |
| Orioles    | 193 |
| Rockies    | 191 |
| Yankees    | 189 | 
| Dodgers    | 183 |
| Rays       | 182 |
+============+=====+

First off, notice that every AL East club makes the cut. Pity the modern-day AL East pitcher, for his challenge is great. Unless you are Jeremy Hellickson, of course.

Overall the top scoring teams look pretty much in accordance with what people expect, but there are a few surprises. Despite currently employing an outfield Theo Epstein might not even recognize, the Sawx are still a team to avoid. Their infield is one of the best offensive units and thankfully Will Middlebrooks is purportedly here to stay even when Kevin Youkilis returns.

The Braves are a somewhat sneaky offensive machine, lacking any real star power. Regardless, Michael Bourn and Martin Prado are great table setters and then Freddie Freeman, Dan Uggla, and Co. feast in driving them home. Bottom line: The Braves are not a team you want your pitcher pitching against.

Obviously right now the Rays are a bit less scary without Evan Longoria anchoring that lineup.

+===========+=====+
| Team      |  R  | 
+===========+=====+
| Tigers    | 180 |
| Indians   | 179 |
| Brewers   | 176 |
| White Sox | 174 |
| Mets      | 172 |
| Phillies  | 171 |
| D'backs   | 169 |
| Astros    | 167 |
| Mariners  | 164 |
| Royals    | 160 |
+===========+=====+

The next set of 10 teams features two that people generally associate with anemic offense, the Mariners and Astros. Give these teams some credit, though, they've been better this year and are no Sunday stroll for opposing pitchers. The Mariners in particular have been "dragon slaying" a lot of quality starters this year, most recently with their encore performance against Yu Darvish last night.

It's a little surprising to see the Tigers and White Sox here, considering how well both teams' stars have played. However both have a few clunkers at the end of the lineup, highlighted by Ryan Raburn's .144/.213/.216 line. How did this guy ever hit in the .280s in half seasons?

+===========+=====+
| Team      |  R  |
+===========+=====+
| Giants    | 155 |
| Nationals | 155 |
| Twins     | 155 |
| Reds      | 155 |
| Angels    | 153 |
| Marlins   | 152 |
| Athletics | 150 |
| Cubs      | 149 |
| Padres    | 133 |
| Pirates   | 118 |
+===========+=====+

Wow, the Pirates have really been that bad, creating a sizable gap between them and the second-to-last Padres? No wonder Justin Verlander almost no-hit them.

No surprise here with the A's and Cubs near the bottom, but seeing the Cincinnati offense ranked this low is unexpected. I still fully expect the Reds offense to heat up—keep in mind their home park is a haven to hitters—but right now they are a team not scoring many runs and striking out a lot. Especially away from their home, don't hesitate to start a pitcher against the Reds.

Lastly, it's sad to see the Angels ranked so low. Albert Pujols can't do all the heavy lifting on his own, I suppose.

Posted by Paul Singman at 5:06am (6) Comments

The daily grind 5-21

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

Today's grind

R.A. Dickey gets the lucky Pirates match-up. Unfortunately, he's 42 percent owned.

Juan Nicasio has a decent match-up with the Marlins.

Travis Wood gets to face the Astros. I picked him up twice.

David Murphy should start against the hittable Hector Noesi.

Matt Adams' ownership has jumped to 15 percent. The match-up with Edinson Volquez isn't exciting or anything, but you might not have long to pick him up despite that. He's also plastered all over the Yahoo! fantasy splash page, so his ownership will skyrocket. He's not a lock to start any given night until he establishes himself.

Rajai Davis will get another chance to hit multiple home runs, this time against the Rays' Matt Moore.

Marlon Byrd and Reed Johnson are both set to face hitable lefties.

Tomorrow's grind

Marco Estrada is a reliable source of strike outs. The rest of the results could be anything. He faces the Giants.

Scott Feldman rarely crosses my radar, but he faces the Mariners tomorrow.

Andy Pettitte against the Royals sounds like a workable match-up. It also sounds like I'm playing an outdated video game.

Murphy's set to see Kevin Millwood.

Carlos Gomez should get a start against Barry Zito.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis faces Charlie Morton.

Reliever watch

Jason Motte picked up the coveted blown save, vulture win last night. He's pitched well despite the three blown saves.

Jonathan Broxton blew his second save. He's done well to date but there's reason for concern in his peripherals. It might be time to start quietly adding alternative Royals.

Andrew Cashner blew a non-ninth inning save. I didn't have eyes on this game, but my impression is that Cashner isn't quite polished enough for a high leverage role yet.

Henry Rodriguez was pulled from a save situation after recording one out. The Nationals are said to be considering alternatives, but there aren't many available. Tyler Clippard is probably the best reliever in the pen, but he has history of trouble in the ninth and management has been adamant that Clippard will remain the setup man.

Yesterday’s results

Great start from Felipe Paulino. He earned the win while shutting down the Yankees: 6.2 IP, 8 K, 0.00 ERA, 1.20

Jamie Moyer did not get through that outing with the Marlins. I hope you have less fantasy hubris than I and passed on that recommendation: 3.2 IP, 5 K, 14.73 ERA, 3.55 WHIP

Seth Smith was 1-for-2 with one run and a pair of walks.

Eric Thames was 1-for-3 with one RBI.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:51am (8) Comments

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