May 19, 2013
THT Essentials:
And here's the full roster.
Now available
You can now purchase the Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2013, with 300 pages of great content. It's also available on Amazon and Kindle. Read more about it here.
Or you can search by:
THT E-book
Third Base: The Crossroads is THT's e-book, available for $3.99 from the Kindle store. The good news is that anyone can read a Kindle book, even on a PC. So enjoy the best from THT in a new format.
Get your very own THT merchandise from our CafePress store. We've got baseball caps, t-shirts, coffee mugs and even wall clocks with the classy THT logo prominently displayed. Also, check out the THT Bookstore. Please support your favorite baseball site by purchasing something today.
All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a
Creative Commons
License.
|
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
All stats updated at All-Star break
Pitchers to target
Cliff Lee
On the surface, Lee has been a colossal disappointment, with only one win and a 3.98 ERA to show for his 100 or so innings. Fear not, though, as the same Cliff Lee that’s always been exists in Philadelphia.
Sure, he rode a coaster of Phine Phortune to a 2.40 ERA last year (or more specifically, he road an 81.4 left-on-base percentage). But Lee’s groundball rates and control are consistent with his 2011 numbers, and his 3.00 FIP indicates better things to come. Some owners who doled out a fat sum to acquire Lee, like yours truly, have suffered through the uncharacteristic inconsistency and are reasonably frustrated.
Full disclosure: I looked into the trade market for the guy with the 10th-best FIP and fourth-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the land and was almost tempted into jumping off the Cliff, so to speak. That would be self-mutilation (selling his best days short while suffering through his worst) and I don’t promote that. Buy the man, as he’ll be among the top five pitchers in the waning months of the season.
~Nick Fleder
Adam Wainwright
Adam Wainwright has not had the best first half for fantasy owners in his return from Tommy John surgery. Despite a respectable seven wins on the season, his ERA (4.56) and WHIP (1.35) are well off the league average (4.17 and 1.31, respectively), and his average fastball velocity is the lowest it’s been since he became a full-time starter in 2008. For all the negatives on the surface, however, there are ample encouraging signs for a strong second half.
Pitchers tend to have plenty of rust in their first few months back from Tommy John, but Wainwright has looked pretty sharp. His control is still as pinpoint as ever (6.6 percent walk rate, 6.8 percent career and 8.1 percent major league average) while his strikeout stuff, unlike Jordan Zimmermann's, is still there (22.3 percent this year, 20.2 percent career and 19.6 percent major leagie average). Even though Wainwright is leaning on the curveball and slider less than ever before, he is inducing a career high clip of ground balls (51.8 percent, 49.4 percent career).
Furthermore, Wainwright’s 2012 velocity (90.0 mph) is not too far off his career average fastball velocity (90.5 mph). Since June 1, Wainwright has a 41:9 K/BB ratio over his past 37.2 innings. Wainwright's 3.08 xFIP, 3.33 FIP and 3.29 SIERA promise great things for those willing to buy low.
~Jeff Gross
James Shields
James Shields is an enigma. He does not walk anyone and has struck out over eight batters per nine each of the past three seasons. Yet, despite posting an xFIP of 3.55 or lower in each of the past three campaigns, Shield’s brilliant 2.82 ERA last season has been bookended by ERAs of 5.18 and 4.17. His problem has always been the gopher ball. The major league average home run-per-fly ball rate has historically been around 10-11 percent, but Shields' 2010 and 2012 rates clocked in at 13.8 percent and 14.0 percent, respectively.
A lot of his 2011 success arguably could be the result of an increased groundball rate. After two disappointing season from 2009-2010 with career-low groundball rates, Shields upped the worm burn to 46.2 percent. His homer-to-fly ball ratio remained on the higher end of the league average at 11.1 percent, but fewer fly balls meant fewer overall home runs. That, paired with a stingy groundball rate, allowed him to beat out his peripherals last season to post a career year.
This season has seen Shields continue to struggle with poor home run luck on his fly balls (14.0 percent), but his groundball rate is a career high by a mile (53.8 percent). Shields' strikeout rate has fallen off a bit since the beginning of June, but he is still racking up 50 percent-plus groundball outings with even stingier walk rates.
Assuming the trend continues, expect his ERA to better resemble his xFIP and SIERA (3.44/3.45) in the second half. Whereas Max Scherzer’s inconsistency makes him a medium-risk, high-reward second-half play, I’d peg Shields as a lower-risk, almost-as-high-reward, stud-capable starter to pry away from an impatient owner.
~Jeff Gross
James Shields
Jeff has already touched on Shields at length, so I'll keep it short. All of his components say he's the same pitcher as last year. While last season's .258 BABIP against was certainly lucky, this year's rate of .335 is unlucky. He's also stranding fewer than 70 percent of base runners. Unlike in 2010, he's not suffering a case of gopheritis. See if his owner is fed up with him.
~Brad Johnson
Pitchers to avoid
Jeremy Hellickson
Behind the mask of a respectable 3.41 ERA (11 percent better than league average), Hellickson is having a miserable season. FanGraphs has him pinned as a sub-replacement level pitcher, and while Baseball Reference and THT’s Oliver valuations are, respectively, kinder (in that order), I’m apt to go with the first reading. The silver lining in his smoke-and-mirrors, red-flags-abound Rookie of the Year campaign last summer was his swinging strike rate, which has faded to mere respectability where it was once elite.
In fact, Hellickson is spinning four-below average pitches (per FanGraphs pitch values) and is generating far fewer swings in the zone when he even hits the zone (which, of course, is also occurring at a lower rate). The control remains suspect—his 1.60 strikeout to walk ratio, three hundredths lower than last year’s mark, will drop few jaws—and the home runs are crawling over the fence this year at a higher rate.
One of these days, one would suppose, Hellickson’s above-average strand-rate will fall—even though it’s consistently hovered around 82 percent, the Rays defense hasn’t always been below average per UZR—and so, too, will the dominoes that keep him owned in 73 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
~Nick Fleder
R.A. Dickey
There's not much analysis to this. It's not that I don't believe in Dickey's breakout first half. I don't even expect a ton of regression in the second half. It's just that I refuse to buy high on a pitcher who lacks a UCL in his elbow. And the corollary to that is that I'd be happy to sell high.
If you own Dickey, don't force a trade just because I'm worried half of his arm is going to detach. But if someone offers you good value, especially in keeper leagues where his age might be forgotten, I'd urge you to take it. Likewise, if you have the chance to acquire Dickey and you're not paying out the nose, it could make sense to take the risk.
~ Brad Johnson
Hitters to target
Anthony Rizzo
Call me a homer all you want. Anthony Rizzo is going to bash 15 home runs in the second half and hit close to .280 doing it. If you are in a keeper league, as I am, you need to pay a premium for this slugger.
Since his breakout with the Red Sox in 2010, Rizzo has shown a good ability to make contact for power. His strikeout rate in the minor leagues is just over 20 percent, which is miniscule for a player with a raw power score in upper 70s on the 20-80 scale. It does not hurt, either, that Rizzo has shown the ability to take a walk, although he is sporting just a two percent walk rate through his first 12 major league games.
Rizzo’s big weakness in the past has been his splits against lefties, but he held his own against them in the minors this year, and two of his four major league home runs have been against lefties this season, including one against the reincarnation of vintage Johan Santana.
Oliver's MLEs for Rizzo this year peg a cumulative expected .315/.364/.625 triple-slash line with 25 homers over 310 at-bats. Oliver further forecasts Rizzo as a legit 30-plus home run hitter annually over the next six seasons with a respectable .270 bating average. Given that Rizzo is only 23 years old and starting to figure out lefties, I would take the over on that batting average.
~Jeff Gross
Ben Zobrist
Since his breakout season in 2009, Zobrist has offered fantasy owners five-category production at myriad positions. His perceived value is down yet again with a batting average that is teetering on the brink of painful. He's no longer eligible at half a dozen positions, but he can still man second base or right field. A glance at his 5x5 stats might cause you to wrinkle your nose, but a closer examination reveals reason for optimism. His season BABIP is just .266. He's hitting slightly more line drives than in the past and isn't hitting more infield flies than usual.
With that in mind, a BABIP below his career .284 mark seems likely to bounce back. He's also walking more than striking out, which has a lot to do with his reduced swinging-strike rate (5.5 percent 2012, 6.3 percent career) and he's swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone than the past two seasons. I'm predicting roughly 45 runs, 10 home runs, 40 RBI, 10 steals, and a .270 batting average over the rest of the season.
~ Brad Johnson
Wil Myers
In a major league season whose “young 'un” news has been dominated by the promotions and successes of top prospects Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and Anthony Rizzo, the resurgence of the Royals’ Wil Myers has been an under-the-radar story. After an injury-plagued season of disappointment in 2011, a seemingly healthy Myers has picked up where he left off in 2010.
After batting .343/.415/.731 with 13 home runs in 36 games at Double-A this year, Myers was promoted to Triple-A, and he has not stopped hitting. Through his first 50 games in the PCL, Myers is batting a robust .315/.395/.636 with 14 home runs.
Though only 22 years old, Myers has shown a veteran’s ability to command the strike zone with a career minor league walk rate of 13.5 percent and a strikeout rate right around 20 percent (strong for a slugger). Harper’s always gotten the bulk of the media hype as the up-and-coming young superstar catcher-turned-outfielder, but Myers is no slouch. Oliver pegs his combined Double-A and Triple-A MLE on the season at a very strong .282/.347/.575.
With Royals outfielders hitting a combined .253/.319/.368 and posting a cumulative +1.9 WAR (the worst mark in the majors), Myers might force the hands of the struggling Royals in the second half to serve him an extended cup of coffee. If so, you will want to pounce immediately. Players in deeper leagues would be advised pull the trigger early. You will be hard pressed to find a guy with Myers' upside on the waiver wire in the second half.
~Jeff Gross
Chase Headley
Blessed with supreme talent and cursed with an unforgiving hellhole of a home to hit in, Headley’s been wrongly labeled as a middle-of-the-pack talent. In reality, he possesses 20/20 potential, hunky walk rates, and elite defense. His All-Star caliber potential is being well wasted in an ugly home park and in a last-place, going-nowhere-since-April organization in full-fledged rebuilding mode.
That is precisely why he makes for a perfect second-half breakout candidate. Throw out his home games in Headley’s career, and you have the following batting line: .299/.366/.445. This year, he’s hitting a homer every 25 or so at-bats on the road, which would make for a tasty 24 over a full 600 at-bat season.
The Padres represent one of the few sure-fire sales corps in the major leagues this deadline, and Headley’s a valuable chip who won’t realize his full value in San Diego. I’m giddy at the thought of young Headley in a Pirates uni (with Pedro Alvarez moving to first base, however far-fetched the idea is). Good storyline, meet good storyline.
~Nick Fleder
Hitters to avoid
Josh Hamilton
How does one sell "high" on one of the major leagues' most fearsome hitters of the past few years when he is hitting .308/.380/.635 with more home runs in the first half (27 over 79 games) than he hit all of last year (25 over 121 games)?
Well, for one thing, since May 13 (the end of “the week that was”), Hamilton has hit .238/.327/.465 (.792 OPS) with nine home runs over 47 games (199 plate appearances). He is always an injury risk; despite being on pace to play over 150 games this year , he has played more than 133 in a season only once (2008). Furthermore, in the first half of the season, he has already likely done more than you expected him to do all season.
Do not get greedy. Ship him off for a better, more consistent player like Carlos Gonzalez or a long-term keeper like Mike Trout before anyone else notices he hasn’t been as good over the past 50 days as his full-season numbers indicate.
~Jeff Gross
Alex Rios
Rios has been bouncing between fantasy stalwart and black sheep for several seasons now. While there's no reason to say that Rios will definitely fall apart in the second half, I'm very skeptical he can continue to be a five-category monster. Much of Rios' success this season rides on a career-high 23.2 percent line drive rate. I'm not sure I believe that is anywhere close to sustainable. He's posted rates of 16.4, 16.9, and 18.4 over the previous three seasons.
The good news is that Rios also is swinging and missing at a career-low rate of 5.1 percent. That's a number I'm more willing to believe in, and it's an indication that a subtle change MAY have been made that could also account for the line drive rate. Still, I'd happily bet on Rios not being a top-100 player in the second half.
~Brad Johnson
Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:04am
(7) Comments
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Sell high candidates: starting pitchers
Chris Sale
Owner of a 2.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, Chris Sale has been one of the league’s most pleasant surprises this year. Night after night, Sale gives owners quality production, ranking among the top five at his position all season long.
Unfortunately, there’s only so much longer this can continue. The easy money is on his BABIP to regress closer to .300 (I have his BABIP at .3052 going forward, ZIPS has .303) while the bandbox in Chicago pushes his HR/FB back to the 9.0 to 9.5 percent range.
His exceptional peripherals should survive the season intact: going forward I see an 8.144 K/9 and 2.692 BB/9 based on his plate discipline indicators. However, this alone won’t sustain his place among the top five, as he is closer to a top 25 hurler the rest of the way.
If you’re weighing the option of trading Sale, no doubt many potential trade partners will point to the low BABIP (.264) as pretext to decline a trade. Counter by pointing to his xFIP of 3.19 which, though not a stellar 2.11, should ease their nerves on Sale's downside. However, I think his ERA will be in the mid-3s from here on out.
Projection: 3.664 ERA, 1.296 WHIP, 8.144 K/9, 2.692 BB/9, 12.553 Wins/32 GS.
FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: 0.360 points above average (10-team leagues)
Jered Weaver
Another hurler who I think is likely to see a decline in all meaningful fantasy statistics, Jered Weaver should still be able to rake in a considerable haul. Over the last three seasons, Weaver has established himself among the top starters in fantasy, though it can be argued whether he really belongs there. Coming off his stellar 2010 season when he registered in excess of 9.0 K/9, I would say he belonged in such a discussion. Since then, however, his K-rate has dropped to the mid-sevens and below, removing him from consideration of such accolades. Worse, his current K/9 of 6.68 is thoroughly mediocre.
Perhaps more troubling is his fading comprehension of the strike zone, as his Zone percentage has dropped 1.5 percent. Further complicating matters is his falling O-Swing percentage, down 1.8 percent from last season. Altogether, his plate discipline peripherals point to a walk rate of 3.216 BB/9, not his current level of 2.00 BB/9. For other pitchers, this number could suffice, but for a hurler with a lower K-rate this cannot continue without consequence.
Nevertheless, we shouldn’t write off Weaver so fast. He has somewhat of a Matt Cain quality to him (sustained low BABIP and HR/FB) that makes him difficult to project in many respects. However, most owners I've talked to prefer to own players who can be projected with greater certainty.
That said, I think he can continue his HR/FB magic—I expect an 8.3 HR/FB percentage going forward. However, his BABIP is anyones guess. I estimate a .2911 going forward while ZIPS has a .288. The problem with BABIP projections is that they tend to come with a good amount of volatility. And, in Weaver's case, a considerable amount of his value hinges here. As the projection currently stands, a .2911 BABIP would yield a 3.798 ERA and 1.365 WHIP. However, a .273 BABIP (his career mark) yields a 3.469 ERA and 1.284 WHIP. In essence, this one figure represents the line between fringe #6 hurler and rotation stalwart.
Nevertheless, no matter which way you slice it, Jered Weaver is in for a big turnaround in the wrong direction. Do the decent thing and trade him away to an owner who doesn’t see it coming and reap the rewards of a shrewd, timely deal. And don’t be afraid to ask for a lot—he’s a guy with a long history of results and the name to go with it. He should fetch you an excellent player.
Projection: 3.798 ERA, 1.365 WHIP, 6.617 K/9, 3.188 BB/9, 12.2 Wins/32 GS
FantasyPlayerRater.com value: -1.802 points below average (10-team leagues)
Jordan Zimmermann
I can’t really understand why, but in the last 12-15 months, the fantasy baseball realm has fallen head over heels in love with this guy. Sure, he showed some flashes in 2009 before being struck down for TJ surgery the next season, but since then, his K/9 rate has fallen off the Earth and taken much of his value with it.
So here Zimmermann stands with a 2.48 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 6.19 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9. I like the Ks to improve slightly (to 6.414 K/9) and, to my surprise, I like his already stellar BB/9 to improve as well (to 1.569 BB/9). However, the sum of the parts just doesn’t add up to a 2.48 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, and his value will come crashing down as those figures normalize.
Projection: 3.797 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, 6.414 K/9, 1.569 BB/9, and 11.923 Wins/32 GS.
FantasyPlayerRater.com value: -1.184 points below average
Johnny Cueto
I have a very hard time looking at Johnny Cueto without seeing a big-time regression. Perhaps more than anyone else on this list, his fantastic ERA (2.28) and WHIP (1.16) is very much a house of cards.
Pitching in the Cincinnati bandbox, his 4.5 HR/FB percentage is very, very unlikely to continue—reflected in his projection of 9.9 percent going forward. His BABIP will probably stay in about the same area (I’ve got him projected at a .2999 BABIP), though a small drop such as 5 points can still have a noticeable affect on his overall line (see: Jered Weaver, but not so drastic).
What really troubles me is what is coming for his K/9 and BB/9 rates. I expect his K/9 to drop by about a full strikeout per nine (6.70 down to 5.709) and his BB/9 to rise over half a walk (2.21 BB/9 to 2.840 BB/9).
Put that all together and Cueto looks practically un-ownable. Deal him as soon as you can, but don’t settle for peanuts. He should still be able to net you a pretty good player.
Projection: 4.065 ERA, 1.411 WHIP, 5.709 K/9, 2.840 BB/9, and 12.7 Wins/32 GS.
FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: -3.232 points below average (10-team leagues)
Posted by Mike Silver at 5:06am
(5) Comments
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Yet another day where the pickings are slim. Wei-Yin Chen and Clay Buchholz have imagined upside but also carry more risk than I find acceptable. Buchholz isn't even cheap in daily leagues.
Pitcher (bum): I don't expect to say this very often, but I really expect the Padres to beat up on Lucas Harrell. I might also bet on the Tigers lineup against Jerome Williams.
Hitter (power): I'm a fan of Todd Frazier against Joe Saunders if he gets enough fastballs to work with. I'm also hoping to see Brandon Moss get to Freddy Garcia.
Hitter (speed): I'm going to pick Will Venable, Michael Saunders, and (of course) Ben Revere.
Tomorrow's grind
One pitcher tomorrow stands out above the rest. I've been very impressed by Marco Estrada this season. He's striking out a ton of hitters while generating plenty of swings and misses and he's walking nobody. Excellent recipe for success. The Reds have a little bit of swing and miss in their bat, so tomorrow's match-up is favorable. He's only eight percent owned, so snag him. I've been holding him in a couple leagues.
You could try Miguel Gonzalez against the Indians. I've yet to see him pitch so all I can say is he has a solid pedigree.
The Red Sox have one outfield slot and DH for two of Ross, Gomez and Nava. I think Ross and Gomez are most likely to start.
I expect the Royals to tee off on Blackburn. Ownership of Perez and Cain should spike very soon.
Jones will be cut loose yet again. Definitely one of the most reliable power streamers.
I expect some TTO outcomes from the match-up between Pena and Iwakuma.
Reliever watch
Santiago Casilla has gone from an iron grip on the closer's role to none. With another blown save on Wednesday—this time in extra innings —Casilla will almost certainly be demoted. Sergio Romo should benefit most, although he seems to require more recovery time than most relievers.
Tyler Clippard earned the save last night but it included two solo home runs. He needs to rattle off another streak of scoreless innings to keep the job away from Drew Storen. Speaking of Storen, he's expected to be activated today.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:45am
(0) Comments
Friday, July 20, 2012
All stats current through July 19.
Francisco Liriano | Twins | SP | 50 percent Yahoo ownership
YTD: 4.81 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 25.2% K%, 12.7% BB%, 2.0 K/BB
Oliver ROS: 4.06 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.2 K/BB
Much like we saw with Javier Vazquez last season, Francisco Liriano is covertly bouncing back to form after an incredibly rough start to the season that saw most fantasy owners abandon hope for him.
If you peek at the surface numbers, Liriano's season still looks pretty ugly in the aggregate. His 4.81 ERA is well below average (the league average this year is 4.15) and only recently dipped below the 5.00 mark. His WHIP (1.40) is not much prettier. He is getting a lot of strikeouts (107 in 97.1 innings), but he has given away almost enough walks to totally offset that fact (54, not including four hit batsmen). And it is not like he has been contributing wins (three on the season) to owners' bottom lines.
But something's happened since the Twins put Liriano back in the rotation—and it may have something to do with his velocity and better mixing of pitches (ignore the increased injury concerns from the greater than 30 percent slider usage for now).
|
FB Velo |
FB% |
SL% |
K% |
K/BB |
ERA |
BAA |
|---|
First Six Starts |
91.9 |
52.4% |
26.0% |
15.9% |
1.11 |
9.45 |
0.346 |
Past Ten Starts |
93.0 |
42.3% |
34.3% |
29.7% |
2.75 |
2.84 |
0.171 |
It has been well established that fastball velocity is highly correlated to a pitcher's strikeout rates, ERA, FIP, and batting averages against. Baseball Time in Arlington found that 91 miles per hour was a significant inflection point in the fastball data; pitchers with fastballs averaging above 91 mph significantly and disproportionately posted stronger ERAs than pitchers with average fastball velocities below 91. Liriano topped the 91 mph threshold only twice in his first six starts.
Look at the above chart comparing Liriano's pre- and post-demotion statistics. His first six and past 10 starts are nearly inverse, with one data set looking like an Orioles pitching prospect and the other like a bona fide ace. Check Liriano's full battery of relevant numbers since returning to the rotation: 63.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 77 K (30 percent K rate), 2.75 K/BB, 1.04 WHIP, 2.71 FIP. To be sure, Liriano is still walking more than an average number of batters (28 over the past 10 games, for a 10.9 percent walk rate), but it's a much more tolerable rate than his pre-demotion rate (14.4 percent).
A lot of this recent success likely has something to do with the extra tick of gas on his heat and better mixing his two most often thrown pitches. It also does not hurt that Liriano is inducing twice as many swings as misses on his slider now than he was to start the season (his fastball is also getting more swings and misses as well).
Alas, if Liriano's recent string of success and increased velocity was not enough of a reason to believe, let's check in with the xWHIP calculator for more reassuring data:
The xWHIP calculator further confirms that Liriano's past 10 games have been talent-fueled, not luck based. xWHIP pegs Liriano's past 10 starts as good for a slightly sub-3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP independent of defensive and park considerations. Some combination of the Twins' above-average defense and Liriano's home park should help his second half resemble that talent line, assuming Liriano continues pitching like he has his past 10 starts. His upped velocity, better mixing of pitches and upped swing-and-miss rate (a possible byproduct of different spin and movement measured on his pitches over his last ten starts compared to his first six) also indicate that Liriano's recent improvement is potentially somewhat sustainable.
I warned fantasy owners to keep a close eye on Liriano, whose spring statistics and spring K/BB ratio were eye-popping (27.0 IP, 2.33 ERA, 33 K, 6.5 K/BB ratio), upon his return to the rotation at the end of May. For those who have not taken the leap yet, it is time to hop on board. With 25 strikeouts in his past 14 innings, the secret of Liriano is likely out of the bag. Shockingly, as of Wednesday, Liriano is still available in 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Half of you need to pick Liriano up immediately. The other half need to trade for him before he totally loses "buy low" status. Liriano is the Javier Vazquez of 2012.
Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 2:54am
(3) Comments
First, it was Josh Shepardson. Then it was Paul Singman. Now, I'm taking over THT's AL Waiver Wire column, looking at some less notable names lurking on the scrap heap of fantasy baseball leagues the nation over. Entering week 17, here's are a few names that might be overlooked in your league.
Greg Holland | Kansas City Royals | RP | ESPN: 1.7 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 10 percent ownership
YTD: 3.55 ERA / 1.55 WHIP / 12.8 K/9
Oliver ROS: 3.51 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 10.3 K/9
Let’s play a game of pretend, shall we? Let’s “pretend” the Royals stink, and won’t be much better for the rest of the year. While we’re at it, let’s “pretend” the Royals will be sellers over the next week or so, looking to unload veterans in the hopes of importing younger talent. Quite obviously, you don’t have to be Buster Olney to engage in this scenario when it comes to 28-year-old Jonathan Broxton, already the subject of sustained trade rumors, and, with a balky elbow and a one-year contract, perhaps as sure a player to be traded as any in baseball right now.
Assuming he leaves, that leaves Kansas City with two options in the ninth inning: Aaron Crow and Greg Holland, the same two sleepers who were discussed as possible replacements for Joakim Soria back when the season began. Although Crow has more appearances (43) and holds (12) than Holland, he also has more blown saves (four), two of which have come since Saturday. And if you take away a mediocre April for Holland—during which he was nagged by a rib injury, an ailment that eventually landed him on the DL in the season’s third week—he’s been very good, pitching to the tune of a 1.63 ERA and a 12.69 K/9 since.
Factor in a FIP (2.33) and xFIP (2.89) that’s well below his 3.44 ERA and you have a guy who’s pitched pretty well for a future closer.
Recommendation: Since there might be an opening for the job by the end of the month, Holland is a guy to grab in all AL-only leagues, and, perhaps, some deeper mixed ones as well.
Nick Castellanos | Detroit Tigers | OF | ESPN: 0 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 0 percent ownership
YTD: .318/.354/.462 (Double-A)
Oliver ROS: N/A
Meet Castellanos. Former first round pick. No. 44 among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects entering this season. Third baseman turned right fielder by way of some guy named Miguel Cabrera. And now, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski tells MLive.com, a guy who’s “very close” to breaking into the big leagues.
Pretty much anyone with Castellanos’ hype deserves the moniker of “sleeper,” but before he becomes the next fantasy darling, he’ll have to address some big questions first.
Big question No. 1: How harsh will his major league learning curve be? Let’s remember that this kid is only 20, and has never taken a hack higher than Double-A. Sure, he’s developed into one of the minor leagues’ brighter hitting talents, but one imagines he won’t come out of the gate like gangbusters.
Big question No. 2: Can he secure enough playing time to be a fantasy factor? Currently, Detroit’s right field is occupied by a platoon of Brennan Boesch and Ryan Raburn, which doesn’t sound all that imposing. But Boesch is starting to show signs of life for the first time this year: He’s hammered out a .395/.425/.684 line in July. Plus, Castellanos has been a right-fielder for about as long as Chief Justice John Roberts has been a liberal hero; even Dombrowski had to admit that the defense will be a work in progress over the upcoming months, if not years.
Big question No. 3: What would he bring to fantasy? He doesn’t steal bases—he has just eight over his minor league career—and he hasn’t really hit home runs down on the farm either, chalking up just 16 long balls since entering professional play two years ago. The power will come around, analysts believe, but that might not happen in 2012. Comerica Park won’t really do him any favors as a right-handed hitter, either. It’s also worth noting that while his minor league career strikeout rate is a very reasonable 21.3 percent, his 7.7 percent walk rate (3.4 percent this year) leaves room for improvement.
Still, there’s a lot to like about this kid, and the Tigers are very much in the hunt for the AL Central title. If Dombrowski is already talking about promoting Castellanos, I have to think it’s going to happen before September, and chances are he won’t be called up to Detroit so he can merely sit on the pine.
Recommendation: Castellanos is probably worth a flier in most AL-only leagues right now, though I'd pass on him in mixed leagues until it's clear when he'll be called up and what his role will be.
Zach Britton | Baltimore Orioles | SP | ESPN: 1.2 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 2 percent ownership
YTD: 9.00 ERA / 3.00 WHIP / 2.3 K/9
Oliver ROS: 4.36 ERA / 1.44 WHIP / 5.5 K/9
You remember Britton, of course, part of the vaunted new wave of Orioles pitching that never materialized. But Britton, by and large, has been a victim of bad luck in his two-year major league career thus far: He lost the first half of 2012 due to a shoulder injury, and, while managing to compile a 2.5 FanGraphs WAR campaign in his rookie season last year, still finished with a frustrating 11-11 record and a bloated 4.61 ERA.
But he’s back now, and with Jason Hammel on the shelf and Brian Matusz doing his Brian Matusz thing, Britton, 24, likely has a rotation spot all to himself in Baltimore—assuming he can hold down the job. On Tuesday, Britton made his first start of the year, taking the loss against the lowly Twins in a four inning-plus performance that saw him surrender four earned runs and a disturbing six walks against just one strikeout. But the southpaw will still able to touch 93 on the radar gun, which is an encouraging sign for someone coming off a significant injury.
The Orioles hope that velocity will translate into some strikeouts, since Britton has yet to live up to the potential that made him a nearly strikeout-per-inning pitcher prior to his big league tenure. In nearly 60 minor league innings this year (10 starts), Britton amassed a meh 6.2 K/9 rate, though he was able to keep the home runs and walks in check.
Basically, he looks like a guy who’s (a) still learning how to develop at the major league level, and (b) someone whose full recovery from injury is going to take some more time. For the time being, Britton’s got a full-time job, but he’s yet to establish the low-level consistency he achieved in his 2011 season—let alone the ceiling that once made him one of the most coveted minor league pitchers in the game.
Recommendation: He has a few more starts to make before he can be considered dependable, but you could probably do worse in deeper mixed leagues when it comes to upside among available starting pitching.
Lorenzo Cain | Kansas City Royals | OF | ESPN: 11.7 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 12 percent ownership
YTD: .324/.342/.559
Oliver ROS: .274/.326/.407
It’s hard to calculate just how far Cain’s stock has fallen since the season began. Consider: After gaining a job following the Melky Cabrera- Jonathan Sanchez trade/highway robbery, Cain, 26, put together a monster spring training, slamming his way to a .371/.450/.743 line with five homers and five steals. But that was before a hip injury destroyed the first half of his season, and before a prospect named Wil Myers decided to devour every Double-A and Triple-A pitcher he could get his hands on. Now, Cain is back, but he’s almost an afterthought in fantasy, perhaps better known as the guy blocking Myers’ path to the majors more than a guy who can contribute on the diamond.
And make no mistake: Cain still has plenty of fantasy value, evidenced by the .289 average he’s flashed since returning to duty last Friday. Manager Ned Yost insists the team will ease him back to full-time duty as he recovers, but Cain’s clearly making a case for himself as an everyday player right now. He’s probably not going to help with home runs or RBIs that much—though he did slam 16 long balls and knock in 81 as recently as last year in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League—but he can help with average and steals, though it’s worth noting he hasn’t yet attempted a steal so far this year (a side effect of his injury, perhaps?).
Obviously, Myers’ name deserves to be attached to any consideration of Cain, since despite Kansas City’s repeated insistence that the phenom will spend the better part of 2012 down on the farm, he’s simply too good to keep out of the big leagues. But with Alex Gordon in left field and Jeff Francoeur in right, Cain is the man who stands to be squeezed out of a job if/when Myers gets the call.
Recommendation: We’ll worry about Myers' impending arrival when it happens. In the meantime, Cain is worth a pickup across the board as he jumps out to his first real stretch of playing time this season.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 4:25am
(0) Comments
Consider this second half a new dawn; don’t forget your first half, but build off it and grow out of it. Play aggressively, take risks, and stay as many steps ahead as you can. I’m going to attempt to sift through speculation, rumor, and unstable depth charts to give you a handful of options to help you make the most of the last several months. A hundred words or less for the next handful of names, some new, some old, but all uniquely useful, I think. You ready?
Josh Rutledge | Rockies | SS | 1 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .300 / .348 / .500
Oliver ROS: .282 / .316 / .422 (2012 forecast)
Troy Tulowitzki is injured, Marco Scutaro is on his way out of town, and a Double-A player was summoned to lighten the load. So why am I recommending him? He hit .348 in High-A ball (albeit as a 22-year old) last season, and held his own this year in Double-A with a .303 batting average, all while flashing plus speed and pop. Oliver projects double digits in the steal and home run departments with an above-.280 batting average to boot. It’s too early to call him a rich man’s Scutaro, but he could well be in his rookie season.
Will Venable | Padres | OF | 2 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.1 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .245 / .319 / .406
Oliver ROS: .245 / .319 / .406
Venable isn’t even an everyday starter, but has remained fantasy relevant (to an extent) for years because of his plus-plus speed and here-and-there displays of power. Surprisingly, here and there hasn’t just been away from PETCO Park, as he’s hit an equal 17 homers in both PETCO and away parks over the last three years (a total of about 1,000 at-bats). He’s stolen 61 bases at a prime rate, and though he can’t hit lefties, he certainly could end up in a hitter’s park at the deadline. Should he, he might find himself a candidate for a 10/10 second half.
Ramon Hernandez | Rockies | C | 4 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .196 / .237 / .355
Oliver ROS: .281 / .339 / .430
So it didn’t go exactly how I wrote it up. “Hernandez may be the best dollar catcher you can find (we’ll call the 26th round equivalent to the dollar-player point in auctions), providing home run value without low batting average. “ Funny how it works—nice offensive catcher struggles mightily in the hitter’s park of all hitter’s parks—but we can blame the ugly .592 OPS on a whole lot of bad luck and injuries, mostly. He’s not an every-day guy anymore, but he can still hit .280 with power in the waning months.
Adam Eaton | Diamondbacks | OF | N/A in Yahoo leagues| 0.1 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .300 / .348 / .500
Oliver ROS: .282 / .316 / .422 (2012 forecast)
Farm-system standout Adam Eaton started getting major press with the Justin Upton sweepstakes, as there was some speculation that the Diamondbacks would call him up and give him some burn as their season slips away. And why not? Oliver pins him as a ~4.0 win player for the next six years, with an above-average bat and glove. Most impressive are his speed totals—he’s an efficient base stealer, having swiped 28 of 34 in Triple-A Reno, and has posted a .319/.391/.435 Major League Equivalent in the hitter’s league of the minors. He’s knock knock knockin’ on Arizona’s door.
Domonic Brown | Phillies | OF | 1 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.1 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .281 / .328 / .427 (Triple-A)
Oliver ROS: .267 / .334 / .436
It’s easy to label Brown a flameout or flop after a rough double-dip at the major league level. His early defensive returns were atrocious—he lost nearly 11 runs in 91 games per UZR—and he put together a sub-.700 OPS without the power and speed so raved about in the scouting reports. And Triple-A hasn’t welcomed him back this year, as he’s put up a below-average offensive performance in his third go-round at Lehigh Valley. So to everyone, it seems as plain as the sky above; Brown needs a change of scenery. If so, he’s a go.
Jedd Gyorko | Padres | 2B or 3B | 0 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.0 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .346 / .391 / .615 (Triple-A)
Oliver ROS: Not applicable.
Gyorko (n.) 1. A shorty, stocky, slow righty who excels at generating power and taking a walk. 2. A top prospect in the Padres system who struggled with generic stats (.262 batting average, six homers) in the Double-A Southern League (a pitcher’s league) and killed it, thus far (1.000+ OPS), in his Triple-A run in the Pacific Coast League (a hitter’s league). 3. A converted third baseman who may be summoned to replace current Padres third baseman Chase Headley, who perhaps will be traded at the July 31 deadline.
Wilton Lopez | Astros | RP | 2 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.0 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 2.30 ERA / 0.96 WHIP / 7.1 K/9
Oliver ROS: 3.46 ERA / 1.16 WHIP / 6.5 K/9
Lopez regularly posts ridiculous groundball rates and couples it with sparkling 7.00 strikeout to walk ratio this season (three better than his career mark). So, in other words, he possesses the goods to close. Guys like him need to be owned for their prime ratio stats and be held, in tough times, for their save potential— Brett Myers will be shipped out of Houston if it’s the last thing he ever does, and Brandon Lyon, however good he’s been this year, isn’t half the pitcher Wilton Lopez is. He’ll get the opportunity if you're patient, I speculate.
Christian Friedrich | Rockies | SP | 2 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.5 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 5.70 ERA / 1.54 WHIP / 8.6 K/9
Oliver ROS: 5.81 ERA / 1.60 WHIP / 6.9 K/9
If Friedrich belonged to another organization—say, the Padres—he’d be a gem. Alas, he does not, and alas, he is not—at least not to fantasy owners. But away from Coors Field, he is employable, as he’s the owner of a 3.79 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, a robust 8.93 strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.56 FIP. In other words, he’s nearly mixed league worthy and a bit unlucky with balls in play. I’ve been pushing him as a platoon-play for weeks now, and the time is as prime as it’ll ever be to pick him up.
Luke Gregerson | Padres | RP | 3 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.8 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 3.32 ERA / 1.15 WHIP / 10.0 K/9
Oliver ROS: 3.25 / 1.14 WHIP / 8.6 K/9
Recent rumor out of San Diego is that Huston Street may be tendered a multi-year contract to close for the Friars. It is now, if it was ever not, commonplace wisdom that it’s usually unwise to offer up multi-year deals to relievers, especially those of the brittle variety like Street. But a 1.33 FIP can be tempting, and Street is a good match for a huge park. So the Gregerson recommendation that once seemed natural and somewhat imminent should be taken with a grain of salt. But should the Padres balk from a Street extension, Gregerson, not Dale Thayer, is the man to own.
Todd Frazier | Reds | 3B | 7 percent Yahoo ownership | 4.6 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .277 / .343 / .554
Oliver ROS: .249 / .312 / .460
Please, oh please, pick up Todd Frazier on my third or fourth recommendation (if you haven’t already). He’s going to get a hefty dose of playing time between Joey Votto’s freak injury and Scott Rolen’s various non-freak injuries, and he has very legitimate power in a very legitimately power-friendly home park. He’s a true asset who isn’t being utilized in nearly as many leagues as he should, and could be the second-half Waiver Wire MVP.
Posted by Nick Fleder at 4:43am
(4) Comments
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): As I stated yesterday, I've found Marco Estrada's stuff to be quite impressive this season. He's offering generous helpings of strikeouts with a scanty side of walks. Based purely on numbers, Miguel Gonzalez has a tolerable match-up against the Indians.
Pitcher (bum): Is Nick Blackburn the worst pitcher of the season? I think so. And I expect the Royals to add some more whoopin' to his line. As an alternative, I think the Rays could get to Hisashi Iwakuma in a big way.
Hitter (power): Who but Andruw Jones. Carlos Pena and Luke Scott are a nice pair of alternatives.
Hitter (speed): I don't really think Lorenzo Cain is likely to steal a base, but I love his match-up and expect big things today. Beyond the usual suspects, I'd look at Tony Campana, Gerardo Parra, and Denard Span.
Tomorrow's grind
Chris Tillman against the Indians is one of the better freely available match-ups. You could also try Carlos Zambrano against the Pirates and hope that it's a day that Andrew McCutchen doesn't hit a bomb.
Alex Cobb against the feeble Mariners is worth a glance despite the fact that Cobb has struggled against mediocre competition lately.
J.A. Happ still looks like he should be having a much better year than he is. A game against the lefty-heavy Diamondbacks could help his numbers.
It might be a good day to own Adam Lind.
I'm hoping that Tyler Colvin keeps finding his way into the lineup as he frequently draws exploitable match-ups like Kip Wells.
The options above from the Royals and Twins probably have the best combination of talent, availability, and favorable match-ups. And they play each other, which should make things interesting.
Reliever watch
An uneventful evening although Drew Storen threw a clean inning in his return from the disabled list. He was brought into a game in which the Nationals were behind five runs in the ninth. Tyler Clippard still has a grip on the job, but it's slipping.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:37am
(4) Comments
Monday, July 23, 2012
It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a weekly basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.
Fantasy infirmary
• A left wrist strain landed Jose Bautista on the DL last week, sidelining the slugger until at least August. That opens up a spot in Toronto’s outfield and could translate to regular playing time for promising 21-year-old prospect Anthony Gose, who was called up in Bautista’s absence.
Gose, who was batting .292/.375/.432 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League at the time of his call-up, probably figures to contribute more defensively than offensively, especially in the near term, though he’s an immediate stolen-base threat, having swiped 223 bags in his minor league career.
In his quest for playing time, the biggest problem facing Gose is Travis Snider, who was also called up last week after shredding Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .335 average and 1.021 OPS in 56 games. Both players are worth a look in AL-only leagues while Bautista recovers, though I suspect Snider will secure more at-bats over the next week or so as Gose is used as a late-inning defensive replacement/pinch runner.
• Joey Votto underwent arthroscopic knee surgery last week, giving Todd Frazier a chance to pick up at-bats at first base for the Reds. Early reports suggest Votto is making progress ahead of schedule, but he’s probably going to miss the next couple of weeks.
• Ian Desmond’s oblique injury is more serious than previously realized, as an MRI revealed late last week that he suffered a tear, which will keep him out for at least a few weeks. Danny Espinosa will continue to see starts at shortstop, while Steve Lombardozzi will continue to anchor second base.
• After getting rocked over his last three appearances, Johan Santana landed on the DL late last week with a sore ankle, opening up another wound in the Mets’ already thin rotation. But after being passed over for a promotion earlier in the month, it now looks as if prospect Matt Harvey will make his major league debut on Thursday, even though he was lit up in his last Triple-A start. The Mets have been reluctant to push their second-best pitching prospect, but one imagines they'll give him an opportunity to stick around given the loss of Gee and Santana's absence. Harvey is worth a flier in all NL-only leagues and someone worth considering in deeper mixed leagues.
Meanwhile, rookie Jeremy Hefner (1-3, 5.85 ERA, 1.360 WHIP, 5.01 K/9) will pick up a start on Wednesday.
• Injuries have limited Matt Capps to just 28.1 innings this season, and that number is not going to get any higher for a while, as rotator cuff irritation has placed the Twins’ closer on the DL until at least September. Glen Perkins and Jared Burton are the obvious choices to pick up saves in Capps’ absence, and both players closed games this week.
• Luke Scott was placed on the DL for the second time in a month after straining his right oblique, giving both Hideki Matsui and Jeff Keppinger more playing time.
Other bumps and bruises
• It’s bad enough that Hanley Ramirez sliced up a finger on his right hand after punching a fan in the dugout a few weeks ago (fan as in mechanical object, not paying customer, for what it’s worth). But now, we’re learning that Ramirez failed to take his medication one day last week, leading him to an infection which will cost him at least the upcoming series against Atlanta, Ozzie Guillen said. Greg Dobbs picked up some starts at third base over the weekend, so it’s fair to assume he’ll keep Han-Ram’s seat warm until he returns.
• Lower back tightness will force Roy Oswalt to miss Monday’s start against the Red Sox, giving Scott Feldman a chance to pitch, the team announced Sunday. Also, it seems as if Colby Lewis will miss Tuesday’s start with forearm stiffness, which could result in Martin Perez getting promoted to the majors for the second time this season.
• Matt Garza left his start on Saturday after just three innings due to a triceps cramp, which could land the Cubs’ veteran on the DL. It will be interesting to see what, if any, impact the injury has on Garza’s trade value as the deadline nears.
• It sounds as if a left hip flexor strain will torpedo Nick Swisher in week 17, as he’s not expected to be back in the lineup until Friday.
• Drew Pomeranz will miss his next start with arm soreness, the Rockies announced Sunday. In his place, Carlos Torres (1-0, 2.19 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 5.8 K/9 in 12.1 relief innings) could take the ball on Tuesday, or the team could dip into the minors to call up a replacement, manager Jim Tracy said.
• Erick Aybar suffered a toe contusion after fouling a ball off his right foot over the weekend, and he could miss playing time in week 16. In response, the Angels called up infielder Jean Segura, who was hitting .294/.346/.404 in 414 Double-A plate appearances this year. Segura, 22, was listed as Baseball America’s 55th rated prospect entering this season, but it’s unclear whether he’ll gather enough at-bats to make a fantasy impact, or whether Aybar’s injury is significant enough to open up a spot in the starting lineup.
• Wilin Rosario could land on the disabled list after spraining his ankle trying to block a pitch last week.
Road to recovery
• Although he doesn’t yet have a timetable for his return to the majors, Jayson Werth (wrist) made his first rehab appearance over the weekend.
• After missing nearly two months with a right Achilles injury, Andy Dirks was assigned to Triple-A Toledo on Sunday to begin his rehab assignment.
• It looks as if Gavin Floyd will make the start today after missing a few weeks with right elbow tendinitis.
Minor developments
• Phenom Trevor Bauer was demoted to Triple-A after struggling in a start last week against the Reds. One imagines he’ll be back with the club before long, but owners in shallower redraft leagues might consider cutting him, as he won’t be a fantasy factor in the immediate future.
• After torching Triple-A pitching this year (.351/.388/.572) and leading the minors in RBIs, third baseman Ryan Wheeler was called up to the Diamondbacks over the weekend. Unfortunately, it’s not clear how much playing time he’ll garner, as the team still plans to use Ryan Roberts and Willie Bloomquist at the hot corner for the time being. But if Wheeler can get off to a fast start, he’s definitely someone to watch in mixed leagues, since the power is legit, and he could force his way into regular playing time to finish out the season.
Commodities on the move
• Remember when people actually debated which team got the better end of the Melky Cabrera- Jonathan Sanchez trade? Me neither. Ditto goes for the Jeremy Guthrie- Jason Hammel trade that also went down over the offseason between the Rockies and the Orioles, as Hammel enjoyed a breakout season while Guthrie wallowed in a 3-9 record with a 6.35 ERA and 1.688 WHIP. So last week’s deal was a classic change-of-scenery opportunity, as the teams swapped Guthrie and Sanchez.
For Sanchez, a once-formidable strikeout pitcher with a no-hitter under his belt, the chronic control problems that have plagued his career came roaring back in an ugly way this season thanks to a 7.4 BB/9, and somehow I don’t think Colorado will grant him any favors, even if a return to the National League can only help him.
As for Guthrie, he’ll be joining a team that features a bullpen with a better ERA and strand rate, and a guy suffering from a 18.6 percent HR/FB rate will almost certainly keep more balls in the park, despite facing a designated hitter every time through the batting order.
• The White Sox solidified their bullpen in a big way last week when they acquired Brett Myers from Houston, dealing the Astros two minor leaguers and a player to be named later. Myers, 31, has put together a solid season in his return to closing duties, compiling 19 saves, a 1.340 WHIP and a 54.3 percent ground ball rate, though his 5.87 K/9 was well below expectations, considering he was a strikeout-per-inning pitcher during his 2007 campaign as the Phillies closer.
No matter; he brings credibility to the back end of the White Sox bullpen, and while Robin Ventura insists that Addison Reed will continue to get the ball in the ninth inning, Reed’s recent inconsistency—and the White Sox need to perform during the stretch run—leads me to believe Myers could emerge as the man in Chicago before long.
As for Houston, Francisco Cordero will take over as Myers’ replacement, though the 38-year-old will only have NL-only value until he can prove to be a reliably daily option, as well as fending off advances from Wilton Lopez, who’s had a solid season thus far.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:03am
(0) Comments
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
There is no table for yesterday, but I do have some quick picks below.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): I guess Clayton Richard against the Giants is the match-up to go with today. If that doesn't sound convincing...
Francisco Liriano against the White Sox seems like a worthwhile throw of the dice if you're open to an all or nothing gamble.
Pitcher (bum): I'd expect the Angels to smack Bruce Chen around. However, it's hard to roster many Angels as they tend to be expensive. You can also try Red Sox players against Scott Feldman. A more under-the-radar play is Gavin Floyd against the Twins.
Hitter (power): John Mayberry Jr. matches up well against soft-tossing lefties like Randy Wolf. If you're looking for someone less widely available, Alfonso Soriano might be able to swat one against Erik Bedard.
Hitter (speed): Go with Ben Revere, Denard Span, and Craig Gentry. The latter has more potential as a five category presence.
Tomorrow's grind
It's another one of those days where there really isn't a freely available pitcher worth streaming. Mike Leake against the Astros might come the closest.
Jonny Gomes against Brett Cecil seems like a perfect match-up (for Gomes).
Adoption rates for Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez are picking up. They're both worth owning in most formats. Cain is actually batting clean-up with some frequency.
Rajai Davis has the best pure speed match-up against Travis Blackley. As I noted in the past, the pitcher match-up is slightly less important for burner types. They tend to follow the "put it in play and see what happens" model of hitting.
David Murphy has a good match-up to show off his well-rounded talent against Clay Buchholz. However, Buchholz has looked pretty good since coming off the disabled list.
Reliever watch
Looks like Francisco Cordero is a closer again. Unless you desperately need those saves and have some ERA and WHIP to spare, you may want to let an opponent swallow that bitter pill.
Jose Valverde is battling another day-to-day injury. Joaquin Benoit locked down the save yesterday but he doesn't seem poised to take over the role despite Valverde's struggles this season.
Javy Guerra blew a save opportunity, further solidifying Kenley Jansen's standing. Jansen had gone a couple days in a row and was unavailable.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:01am
(2) Comments
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): There aren't any starters I'm even remotely interested in. Mike Leake might have the best match-up of the day for available arms. Garrett Richards and Paul Maholm are the not-so-pleasant alternatives.
Edwar Cabrera against the Diamondbacks could be interesting if only because he's a relatively unknown quantity. He survived the PCL, which has to count for something.
To answer yesterday's reader question about Maholm, I do not like his match-up. The Pirates are killing it lately.
Pitcher (bum): We've got our share of bums today. Will Smith against the Angels and Brett Cecil against the A's look like the most exploitable.
Masher with a Match-up: It's hard to pass up Jonny Gomes against a struggling left-hander like Cecil. Not a lot of true power options out there as alternatives today, but I'd expect a couple hits from Lorenzo Cain.
Hitter (speed): Rajai Davis has a nice match-up against Richards. I'm not sure if he'll steal a bag, but David Murphy has one of the best well-rounded match-ups of the day.
Tomorrow's grind
My favorite waiver starter— Marco Estrada—has a survivable match-up against the Phillies. However, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have been providing some firepower lately, so be wary.
Trevor Cahill is a little over 50 percent owned, but I've seen him surface in a couple of my leagues and I like him against the patchwork Rockies.
Kevin Correia reliably gives up about three runs in about six innings. The Pirates have been providing plenty of run support so his start against the Cubs appears playable.
Gomes returns with a second consecutive day of relevance and Adam Lind joins him as a masher with a match-up. I might have to rename the Hitters (power) section now...
I'll throw Quintin Berry's name out there as a guy who could steal a couple bags against Derek Lowe.
I like Salvador Perez and Cain enough to recommend them against Jered Weaver, which makes me wonder why either of them are on the majority of waiver wires. Second half laziness?
Reliever watch
Francisco Rodriguez has blown five of eight save attempts including an ugly four run comeback last night. Granted, some of those blown saves were of the setup variety.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:43am
(0) Comments
This is Page 3 of 5 THT Fantasy Focus pages < 1 2 3 4 5 >
|
