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 Monday, August 13, 2012The daily grind: 8-13The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo! The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. There will be no column tomorrow. Today's grindThe Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are: Pitcher (to start): I keep saying "try Alex Cobb" and it keeps not working, but I'm going to go ahead and do it again. Cobb against the Mariners should turn out all right for you. I might take a peek at Jeff Samardzija against the Astros. Or alternately, Mike Minor is 46 percent owned but he's facing the Padres and he's on an extended run of excellent pitching. He should be owned. Pitcher (bum): Bums aplenty this year. Armando Galarraga should help the baby Cubs provide some offense. Chief Bum Jeff Francis will be plying his trade against the Brewers today in the match-up of the day. Hitter (power): Brennan Boesch has been heating up and at some point, Samuel Deduno is going to reveal that he's a swing man quality pitcher. David Murphy will get the start against David Phelps. Hitter (speed): Carlos Gomez is foolishly only 31 percent owned despite being a regular fantasy start for the past four or more weeks. Against Francis he should wreak havoc. Juan Pierre's always a useful alternative. Tomorrow's grindI recommend Clayton Richard and Jarrod Parker for pitchers tomorrow. For anyone needing a hitter, it's Bumsgiving tomorrow so you'll be tripping over options in even the deepest of leagues.
Of speed, we have plenty. Carlos Gomez, Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp, Jemile Weeks, Will Venable and Eric Young Jr. all have tasty match-ups and a better than normal shot at providing a stolen base. Of power, we have equal plenty. Andruw Jones, Carlos Pena, Brandon Moss, Chris Carter, Delmon Young, Brett Wallace (!) and Todd Frazier all have a match-up that could reasonably produce a home run. Reliever watchKameron Loe picked up a save for the Brewers, further confusing the world about the closer situation. Personally, I would divest entirely or hold John Axford as neither Jim Henderson or Kameron Loe are suitable high leverage relievers. Frank Francisco tried to blow the save, but Jon Rauch bailed him out. The moral of the story is that sometimes it pays to invest in a closer. Francisco has a two-year, $12 million contract while Rauch is on a one-year, $3.5 million contract. This might be a case where the Mets could have combined that money and saved themselves from reliever hell. Although the theoretically available names at that price, Joe Nathan and Ryan Madson in particular, probably would have refused to sign with the Mets. Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:44am (0) Comments Tuesday, August 14, 2012The Verdict: the court rejects a trade deadline dump tradeSUPREME COURT OF FANTASY JUDGMENT Stud Muffins vs. Carson City Cocks ON PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI FROM THE INCONTINENT LEAGUE Decided August 7, 2012 Cite as 4 F.J. 167 (August 2012) Factual Background A rotisserie fantasy baseball league called The Incontinent League (hereinafter referred to as “roto league” or “IL”) is an 11-team NL-only keeper league utilizing an auction-style draft and transaction platform. Teams are permitted to maintain up to ten (10) players during each off-season with individual players allowed to be kept for a maximum of three (3) consecutive years under contract. Each team is also permitted to keep two minor league players which are in addition to the ten players kept. This roto league also has a $26.00 draft salary cap, as well as a $36.00 in-season salary cap that is applicable for all teams. As with many rotisserie leagues, the Incontinent League uses the standard 5×5 scoring categories to determine the standings and prize money. For offensive players, the five categories are: (1) batting average; (2) homeruns; (3) runs batted in; (4) runs scored; and (5) stolen bases. For pitchers, the five categories are: (1) wins; (2) earned run average; (3) WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched); (4) strikeouts; and (5) saves. Statistics are cumulative throughout the course of the season and there are no head to head games contained within the Roto league. The Incontinent League submitted a proposed trade between two league members and seeks an opinion on whether the trade should be approved. Procedural History The Stud Muffins ("SM") have made a trade with the Carson City Cocks (“CCC”). SM traded Cliff Lee (SP-PHI, $3.20 with one year remaining on his existing contract) and Jose Altuve (2B-HOU, $0.50 with one year remaining on his existing contract) to CCC in exchange for Bobby Parnell (RP-NYM, $1.00 in the first year of his existing contract), Martin Maldonado (C-MIL, $1.00 in the first year of his existing contract), Wilson Ramos (C-WAS, $0.50 with one year remaining on his existing contract), Logan Forsythe (2B-SD, $1.00 with one year remaining on his existing contract), and Cory Luebke (SP-SD, $1.00 with one year remaining on his existing contract). Issue Presented (1) Should the trade between the Stud Muffins and CCC be approved? Decision The Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment typically favors individual fantasy sports participants and teams’ ability to make moves, transactions, and trades. People pay money to participate in fantasy leagues, and generally they should be afforded the freedom to manage their team accordingly. Whether success is bred from that individual’s decision-making is purely left to some skill, luck, dedication, and savviness. See 4 Ponies v. Carson City Cocks, 3 F.J. 13 (May 2011). It is well documented that there is a different analysis of trades in a keeper league as opposed to a non-keeper league. A trade that may look facially uneven or lopsided could easily pass muster in a keeper league. Trades made between teams in a keeper league need to be analyzed by other factors besides merely comparing statistics. Grave Diggers vs. Chilidogs, 4 F.J. 5, 8 (January 2012). These other factors include salary cap flexibility, contractual status of players, and long-term planning at the expense of the current season. Smittydogs vs. Moneyball, 1 F.J. 32, 33 (June 2010); Winners vs. Seven Shades of Shite, 3 F.J. 97, 102 (July 2011) (holding that team owners in keeper leagues with no hope of contending in the current season must make critical roster management decisions of whether to trade established players to help build for the future). The Court will evaluate the objective merits of a deal and ensure that the integrity of the league is maintained. See Victoria’s Secret vs. C-Train, 2 F.J. 32, 35 (October 2010). The Court will not undermine a fantasy owner’s ability to manage his/her team unless a deal is unfair or inequitable, ripe with collusion, or not in the best interests of the league. Whether a trade is objectively intelligent or popular will not be part of the analysis. 4 Ponies vs. Beaver Hunters, 3 F.J. 26, 27 (June 2011). The virtue of a trade is measured in both quantifiable criteria and subjective needs of the teams involved. Carson City Cocks vs. Stud Muffins, 3 F.J. 23, 24 (May 2011). No evidence has been submitted indicating any alleged collusion or malfeasance. As such, the Court will operate on the presumption that there is no collusive conduct between the parties. At first glance, the trade of Cliff Lee and Jose Altuve in exchange for Bobby Parnell, Martin Maldonado, Wilson Ramos, Logan Forsythe and Corey Luebke does not look inequitable. Despite having a sub-par season for an underachieving Phillies team, Cliff Lee is still considered a borderline elite fantasy pitcher, especially in an NL-only league. See Steelers vs. Patriots, 3 F.J. 216, 220 (November 2011). Granted, his value is somewhat diminished based on the fact he only has two wins and has been inconsistent all season. However, his peripheral numbers still warrant this classification. Lee, winless until July 4 this year, still has a respectable 3.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 124 strikeouts in 133.1 innings. This may not be what was expected from him this year, but it doesn’t mean he has lost elite status. In an NL-only league, he still ranks amongst the top starting pitching options despite his overall record this year. Along with Lee, the Stud Muffins traded 2012 All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve. Likely undrafted in most fantasy leagues, Altuve has been a pleasant surprise for an otherwise horrendous Houston Astros team. Through August 6, 2012, Altuve is batting .290 with five homeruns, 30 RBI, 60 runs scored and 21 stolen bases. He has been a viable option in mixed leagues, and certainly one of the better second baseman in an NL-only league. In exchange, the Stud Muffins acquired a package of five players which include Bobby Parnell, Martin Maldonado, Wilson Ramos, Logan Forsythe and Corey Luebke. Under no circumstances can this package be deemed fair or equivalent value for Lee and Altuve. A player’s value is not necessarily equivalent to the accumulation of several other less valuable players’ statistics. See Team Sabo v. Nub Vader, 3 F.J. 55, 56 (July 2011). Of these five players, Luebke is arguably the best player and he just underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2012. While it is very likely he will pitch at some point in 2013, it is completely unpredictable when that will be or how effective he will be upon his return. With only one year remaining on his contract, SM will not get much in terms of value for him in 2013. Bobby Parnell looked to be the future closer for the Mets until he once again proved he cannot handle ninth inning responsibilities over the past six weeks. Blessed with an electric fastball, Parnell doesn’t appear to have the mental make-up to close out games and is destined to be a set-up man for the foreseeable future. He may pick up some vulture wins and have a respectable strikeout ratio, but he does not possess much value beyond that. SM also acquired two catchers in the deal – Martin Maldonado and Wilson Ramos. Maldonado did a nice job for the Brewers filling in for Jonathan Lucroy while he was on the disabled list. But with Lucroy back and enjoying a career season, Maldonado’s opportunities will be limited going forward. Ramos underwent season-ending ACL surgery earlier this year and is hopeful that he will be back by spring training. He has proven he can hit in the big leagues so he could be a decent fantasy option if he comes back healthy in 2013. But, that will also be his final year under contract so any production or value from him hinges on his pending recovery. The final player included in the package is Logan Forsythe. Forsythe has been given the opportunity to play semi-regularly for the offensively-starved Padres and he has not produced much, especially since the All-Star break. Any San Diego player is going to be handicapped by the mere fact they play their home games at Petco Park. However, this is even more of an issue for a light-hitting infielder with limited playing time. While he could see time at third base in 2013 if Chase Headley departs, he is by no means a reliable option in terms of fantasy value. When analyzing the fairness and equity of a trade, the Court will consider each team’s individual needs to assess whether the trade subjectively made sense from each team’s perspective. See Cajon Crawdads vs. Carson City Cocks, 1 F.J. 41, 42 (June 2010) (upholding a trade for Jason Bay because of the Carson City Cocks’ desperate need for a starting outfielder due to the demotion of Cameron Maybin). There is no dispute that CCC, currently in first place with a 3.5 point lead, will benefit significantly from this deal. Obtaining an ace pitcher like Lee and a solid second baseman such as Altuve greatly increases his chances of maintaining his lead and winning a championship. This is amplified by the fact he did not give away anything of value. It is difficult to see how this trade helps the Stud Muffins, who are currently in 4th place and only one point out of 3rd place. Even with the loss of Cliff Lee, they still have solid starting pitching with Clayton Kershaw, Jordan Zimmermann, Edinson Volquez, and Trevor Cahill. However, taking Lee out of the lineup will have a detrimental effect on their team. Additionally, SM sustains a noticeable downgrade at second base by exchanging Altuve for Forsythe. Even more perplexing is the fact that SM will now have five catchers on his roster after this trade. The additions of Maldonado and Ramos do not represent such significant upgrades over the incumbents Michael McKenry, Chris Snyder and Nick Hundley. The only conclusion the Court can draw is that the Stud Muffins are punting the current season. When a team owner in a keeper league no longer has any hope for contending in the current season, he must make a critical roster management decision of whether to trade off established players. See Winners v. Seven Shades of Shite, 3 F.J. 97, 102 (July 2011). However, when doing so, there must be sufficient and cognizable compensation obtained in exchange for such current assets. Otherwise, a trade will be deemed inequitable and contrary to the best interests of the league if the Court cannot objectively ascertain any benefit to one of the teams and the net result in no way makes a team better now or in the future. Los Pollos Hermanos v. Little Stumps, 3 F.J. 192, 195 (October 2011). This trade is so lopsided that it cannot possibly be considered equitable. Lopsided trades throw off the competitive balance of the league and create a slippery slope for future trades. The Court has no issues with the idea of trading superstar players so long as the package in return is equitable and makes sense given the needs of both teams. See 4 Ponies v. Beaver Hunters, 3 F.J. 26, 29 (June 2011). Moreover, the Stud Muffins don’t even get the benefit of salary cap flexibility because they are actually taking on an additional $0.80 by making this deal. There is no discernible benefit to the Stud Muffins based on the compensation provided by CCC. It is normally acceptable for teams in keeper leagues to make trades that do not have equivalent present-day value. However, a deal that is so completely lopsided and goes against the best interests of the league will be rejected. See Smittydogs vs. Moneyball, 4 F.J. 57 (May 2012) (rejecting a trade of Ryan Braun and Edwin Jackson in exchange for Randall Delgado, Dee Gordon and Bobby Abreu); Team Sabo vs. 4 Ponies, 4 F.J. 50 (May 2012) (rejecting a trade of Joey Votto and Tyler Clippard in exchange for Drew Stubbs, Francisco Rodriguez and Starling Marte). Based on the foregoing, the Court rejects this trade and deems it inequitable and contrary to the best interests of the league. IT IS SO ORDERED. Posted by Michael Stein at 5:10am (2) Comments Wednesday, August 15, 2012Saving for tomorrowPlayers’ fantasy values change when one or more of the following three determinants change: skill level, run environment, or role. If you can predict any of these changes, you can acquire value. Often, it is easiest to predict the latter. Each year, there’s turnover in many teams’ bullpens. Numerous teams change closers. A player who is not a closer now, but could be a closer next year, could be a valuable add in a keeper league, either through free agency or trade. So, I want to take a look into some players who may see a fantasy-relevant change in role between today and the beginning of next season. There are many different league setups regarding keeper structure that may make some of these players more or less appealing as possible adds. So, I will refrain from making too many specific recommendations and instead focus more the players potentially in play. In each of the sections below, I’ll discuss players generally in the order of most valuable/likely to least valuable/probable. Entered 2012 as a closer, lost the job one way or other, should/could have a job back in 2013 Brian Wilson lost his job to injury but likely should have a closing gig next season. He says he’ll be ready for the season opener. Even if that’s not the case, I’d expect him to get the most save chances in San Fran next year. Sergio Santos was signed to be a closer and proved he had the stuff to do it last year. Casey Janssen has been fantastic taking over but is a free agent next year. I’d expect them both to have closing gigs next year. Joakim Soria is not a lock to close next year. He’s a free agent and could be signed either as a higher-priced set-up man by a contender or a closer by a more mid-level, budget-conscious team. He has closer pedigree, however. I have to think John Axford will be given another chance next year, if not this year. Sean Marshall has been quite good for the Reds after some early-season hiccups. However, once he faltered, he got Wally Pipped by Aroldis Chapman. Marshall was a trendy pick to be a below-the-radar stud closer. He’s a free agent next year, and the Reds may try to keep him, given their status as sustainable contenders. But somebody else may very well sign him to close. Who knows what is going to happen to Brett Myers? He’s a free agent. He could be signed as a closer by a non-contender. He could be signed as a setup guy. I could even see a budget-conscious team or a team with a strong, expensive front three or four taking a chance on him as a back-end rotation/spot-starter-reliever hybrid guy. I put Myers ahead of Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour because I think he’s a better bet to retain a job if he’s given one. I will mention Balfour and Fuentes, as well as Matt Capps, because they represent possible closers in 2013, even if not probable ones. Ditto for David Aardsma. Finally, there’s Drew Storen. Both he and Clippard are under team control, and I assume they’ll both be in Washington again next season. There’s only one job there, though. Storen certainly has closer talent, but I don’t expect him to move in the offseason. Doesn’t have a closer job now, but could have on next year Sean Burnett has been one of the best middle relievers in baseball this year. He’s a free agent, and the Nationals already have two studs in their bullpen deserving of closing gigs. Burnett is the most likely to go. Like some of the other players discussed here, he could wind up setting up on a contender or closing on a non-contender or budget-conscious team. Frank Francisco may or may not survive this season, but the Mets will have a new closer in 2013 one way or another. If they stay internal, Bobby Parnell is the leading candidate to be given the reins. The Rockies did not move Rafael Betancourt at the break, but they could do so in the offseason and give Rex Brothers a shot. Betancourt has earned the opportunity to close wherever he goes (should he go). Betancourt is also under a team-friendly contract with a team option next year, and Brothers hasn’t been amazing, so they’ll have to get a pretty nice offer to move him. Has a job now, but likely will be out of one next year. If you have Francisco, Francisco Rodriguez, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, or Santiago Casilla—or any other Giants reliever somebody in need of saves may covet, you might want to consider swapping them for a player likely to gain a job next year, as these players will lose them. The Giants trio is currently competing for rights to first chair if Wilson has a hiccup in his recovery or is egregiously ineffective upon initial return, something we’ve seen before, a la Joe Nathan. Inherited a job this year and won’t be giving it back Chapman is not going anywhere in Cincinnati unless it’s to the starting rotation. Janssen and Tom Wilhelmsen should close again in 2013. I also think Tyler Clippard will remain a closer. As the incumbent, he’s close to a lock to close. I doubt the Nationals would demote him to move Storen back to the role, so that means if Storen ends up closing, he would do that through a trade. I guess it’s possible that they trade Storen and re-sign Burnett, as they’d be set to lose Burnett outright, while they could likely get legitimate assets for Storen. Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:13am (7) Comments The daily grind: 8-15The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo! The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Today's grindThe Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are: Pitcher (to start): Uhg. Everyone remotely trustworthy is owned or in a bad match-up today. You could try Mark Rogers at Coors Field or Bud Norris against the Cubs. If you're looking to pull an unusual move out of the hat, Roberto Hernandez, aka Fausto Carmona, is set to start today. Pitcher (bum): On second thought, Hernandez probably belongs on this bum list. He faces the Angels. The Brewers take on Guillermo Moscoso, who isn't as bad as his 8.23 ERA, but he's still pretty flammable. Scott Feldman and the Rangers versus Freddy Garcia and the Yankees smells like a high scoring shootout. Hitter (power): Let's take Raul Ibanez, Brennan Boesch, David Murphy and Jonny Gomes for the power category today. Hitter (speed): The usual suspects, Carlos Gomez, Rajai Davis and Ben Revere come to mind. Tomorrow's grindTomorrow is loaded with pitchers worth a second thought but maybe not good enough to trigger the add button. That includes Joe Blanton against the Pirates, Matt Harvey at Cincinnati, Kris Medlen versus the Padres, Dan Straily against the Royals, and Marco Estrada against the Phillies. Double down on Medlen.
Cliff Lee has been homer prone, making Gomez an interesting multi-threat play tomorrow. In the pure speed category, Davis has the platoon advantage against the volatile Francisco Liriano. Eric Young should be able to get on and swipe a bag or two from Ricky Nolasco. Column favorite Andruw Jones returns for a dance with Derek Holland. Domonic Brown against Marco Estrada appears to be a great power match-up on the surface, but Brown's swing isn't generating many fly balls these days. His contact tends to range between hard grounder and fliner. Fangraphs credits him with a 23.3 percent fly ball rate, but I'd hazard a guess that most are those fliner types I mentioned. Reliever watchFernando Rodney blew his first save of the season yesterday, aided by a Carlos Pena error. Nothing to see here yet. Casey Janssen also blew his first save, but the Blue Jays held on to win. Those kinds of blown saves are always more forgivable. Janssen's job is very safe as the Jays pen lacks a reliable alternative. Andrew Bailey is back in a big league uniform. We'll be treated the Red Sox media debating who should now be the closer. With Alfredo Aceves and Mark Melancon settling in, the Sox now have one of the strongest bullpens in the game. Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:44am (4) Comments Thursday, August 16, 2012The daily grind: 8-16The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo! The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Today's grindThose in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table. The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are: Pitcher (to start): There are five worth considering today. My top pick is Kris Medlen against the Padres. My second pick is Marco Estrada. Visit yesterday for the other three picks. Pitcher (bum): I'm going to do something I never thought I'd do and recommend the Brewers against Cliff Lee. He's been home run prone this season and the Brewers have a lineup that could exploit that. Alex White and Francisco Liriano could have rough outings too. Hitter (power): Andruw Jones makes his regular appearance and let's give a hand to Chris Carter, who should appear more regularly than he does. Hitter (speed): Carlos Gomez has the match-up I'm excited about against Lee. Rajai Davis has the platoon advantage against Liriano and Eric Young has finally earned the chance to start for the Rockies. Tomorrow's grindRoss Detwiler has a solid match-up against the Mets. Wade LeBlanc might be able to survive the Rockies. My favorite pick of the day is Zach McAllister against the A's.
Plenty of names to choose from for tomorrow. Outside the usual and common options, you could try Chris Johnson, Eric Thames, Carlos Lee, Justin Ruggiano and Brandon Belt. Reliever watchIn the realm of completely expected developments, Jim Henderson blew the save yesterday. Just stay clear of the Brewers bullpen unless you are very confident about your ratios. Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:48am (2) Comments Friday, August 17, 2012AL Waiver Wire: Week 17Greetings, fellow traveler in fantasy. Since we touched base, Blake Beavan got touched up in his one start (though he has one more opportunity this week to help that him justify my endorsement) and Chris Tillman dropped two decisions, though Scott Feldman pitched well in a tough assignment at Yankee Stadium and Grant Balfour quickly ascended to Oakland’s closer role, so I’ll say I’m shooting par for the week. Once again, we plunge down into the depths of AL leagues to see which players are worth taking a flier on as we head toward fantasy postseason. Alex Cobb | Tampa Bay Rays | SP | 17 percent Yahoo ownership | 27.8 percent ESPN ownership YTD: 4.08 ERA / 1.262 WHIP / 6.7 K/9 Oliver ROS: 4.29 ERA / 1.36 WHIP / 6.8 K/9 I believed in Cobb. Lured by the prospect of adding a talented young Rays starter to my squad, I picked him up in late May, and watched him promptly sink to a 2-5 record over his next seven starts, with an unsightly 5.32 ERA and just a 6.14 K/9 to show for his work over that span. With roster space a precious commodity, I cut Cobb in early July and chose to move forward. You can probably guess where this story is going: No sooner did I cut Cobb than he started to turn things around, pitching to the tune of a 4-3 record with a 2.97 ERA, 1.195 WHIP and better than seven K/9 since July 2 (seven starts). Those are pretty solid numbers that more than justify higher ownership percentages in everything resembling an AL-only league—or a mixed league, for that matter—unless, of course, owners feel that Early Cobb is more genuine than Recent Cobb. Well, I’m here to tell you that yes, Cobb is for real. Why? Because he was never that mediocre to begin with. Let’s zoom out for a second and look at his season stats: 7-8, 4.08 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 6.7 K/9. Granted, those numbers won’t include him in Cy Young discussions at the end of the season, but then again, they’re really not so bad, are they? Especially when you take a deeper look, and realize that this 24-year-old has maintained a 58.5 ground ball rate with a 3.28 FIP, 3.60 xFIP and a meager 2.59 BB/9. If you want to be generous, take a look at his 65.9 percent strand rate and you'll realize that, hey, this guy, if anything, is probably getting the shaft with regard to his overall numbers. Put simply, the seasonal stats more than explain why he’s pitching so well lately: He does the little things correctly, and if he were a better strikeout pitcher, he’d be included among the breakout stars of 2012. Instead, he’s just a workmanlike starter in his first full season who’s receiving just 3.3 runs scored per game started, a figure that ranks him 126th among pitchers with more than 60 innings pitched. Cobb is solid, and pitches for a team that should give him a legitimate chance to win every time he takes the ball. What more can you ask for from a free agent pickup in mid-August? Recommendation: Get this guy on your squad in all AL-only leagues, and think about making him a part of your postseason push in deeper mixed leagues. Manny Machado | Baltimore Orioles | 3B | 52 percent Yahoo ownership; 84.5 percent ESPN ownership YTD: .304 / .304 / .826 Oliver ROS: .247 / .303 / .397 There’s not much to say about Machado that hasn’t been written by, well, pretty much everyone with an opinion/educated point of view, so I’m not going to pretend that I have anything new to say about the Orioles’ third baseman. You should also know that, when it comes to younger players, I like to be aggressive, since every year seems to present a Ryan Braun or Mike Trout who just seems to lock into major league pitching from Day One and bring his fantasy owners along for the glorious ride. Machado, at least at the outset, looks like he could be one of those players. Although he’s only 20 years old, the former first-round pick slammed two home runs in just his second major league game, and through Wednesday was batting .304/.304/.826 with three home runs in 23 plate appearances. So yes, I think you should pick him up in every seasonal format, AL-only or otherwise, if he’s available and you have the roster space. But I figured I’d sniff around for some possible red flags that could hurt his value in 2012, perhaps a clue or two that might suggest how much we should buy into this guy. Fortunately, I won’t have to look far for my first exhibit, since THT’s Jeff Moore has already pointed out how Machado, given his first-round status and quick advancement through the minors (928 plate appearances), enters the big leagues as arguably one of the rawest talents in recent memory. There’s nothing necessarily wrong with that, of course, but even a great talent like Machado could still take time to adjust. It’s also not like the AL East is interested in granting Machado a learning curve either, as he’ll have to navigate a web of Yankees and Rays pitchers over the season’s final six weeks, and, for good measure, play six games in Oakland and Seattle, not exactly the most homer-happy ballparks in the country. Machado fans did receive some good news on Thursday when Wilson Betemit was placed on the DL with a wrist injury, which should clear away his biggest obstacle in securing playing time. And with the Orioles sticking around in the Wild Card race, Buck Showalter is going to have to play every card he’s got—including potential impact bats who entered the season ranked among baseball’s best prospects and didn’t arrive in Baltimore to sit on the bench. Where does all this leave us? Basically right back where we started—Machado has all the promise in the world, and shouldn’t be left hanging out to dry in anything but the shallowest of mixed formats. But just keep in mind that nothing is certain, and we’re not yet at the point where Machado should be given the keys to a third base slot in fantasy without owners saving a spare player in case he’s not magical out of the gate. Recommendation: Be happy to have him on your squad, but it never hurts to prepare for a rainy day scenario, right? Geovany Soto | Texas Rangers | C | 25 percent Yahoo ownership; 10.6 percent ESPN ownership YTD: .191 / .275 / .335 Oliver ROS: .236 / .323 / .412 Remember when Soto was good? I only have a vague recollection, though I was fortunate enough to own him in 2008 during his rookie of the year campaign, when he rewarded fantasy owners with a .285/.364/.504 line with 23 home runs and 86 RBIs. Problem is, he’s been mediocre since then, and batted just .199/.284/.347 in 197 plate appearances for the Cubs this year before being shipped over to the Rangers, a fortuitous turn of events for Soto, it would seem, since Mike Napoli just got hurt and now gives the 29-year-old a chance to redeem himself. Obviously, we’re going to need to see a lot, lot more from Soto before we congratulate him on a return to form. But at least for the moment, take a look at his .214 BABIP, which he’s maintained despite a 22.4 percent line drive rate. If the season were to end today, that would be his best mark since 2010, when he belted 17 home runs and tallied a wRC+ of 135. Soto isn’t finished yet, even if fantasy owners have every right to look elsewhere for a catcher. The Rangers are scheduled to play a full seven games next week at home, and although Soto will face Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez, both of whom are pitching well, he’ll also have a chance to feast on the very hittable Minnesota pitching staff. That alone should make Soto worth consideration in fantasy again. Recommendation: Worth picking up in AL-only leagues that use two catchers, and probably worth a flier in single-catcher AL-only leagues. Miguel Gonzalez | Baltimore Orioles | SP | 8 percent Yahoo ownership; 11.6 percent ESPN ownership YTD: 3.38 ERA / 1.223 WHIP / 6.9 K/9 Oliver ROS: 4.91 ERA / 1.38 WHIP / 6.4 K/9 It’s been a journey for Gonzalez, 28, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2009 and has knocked around the minors until coming to Baltimore this year. Thing is, he’s been solid in 2012: The guy had a 1.61 ERA and 10.7 K/9 over six minor league starts, and then joined the Orioles’ rotation for good in July and has an overall big league mark of 5-2, 3.38 ERA, 1.223 WHIP and 6.9 K/9 in eight starts. With two starts coming up in week 20 (at Texas against Scott Feldman, home against Toronto and Henderson Alvarez), Gonzalez definitely looks like the kind of guy who more than deserves a flier in AL-only leagues. But make sure you realize he has a 86.2 percent strand rate, and features a FIP (4.96) and xFIP (4.83) far above his ERA, and a helpful .253 BABIP to boot. Those stats don’t negate his under-the-radar value—at least not immediately—but they’re sobering reminders that diamonds in the rough are sorta hard to come by at this time of the year. Consider picking up Gonzalez, but be warned—a market correction is in the mail. Recommendation: Worth picking up in some AL-only and deeper mixed leagues as long as he stays hot. Posted by Karl de Vries at 4:17am (5) Comments NL Waiver Wire: Week 17Recap: Tyler Greene likes playing for the Astros, apparently, and post-recommendation, appropriately homered, stole a base, and got seven hits in a span of a week... The speculative recs of John Lannan, Javier Lopez and Rudy Owens have hardly paid off yet, but stash those names as potential helpers down the stretch... Jean Segura is holding his own thus far, riding a six-game hitting streak into Friday at this writing; the stolen bases will soon follow... My prediction of a 40 percent strikeout rate for Brett Jackson so far looks conservative, what with his toxic 51.4 percent rate at the moment.... And the Pick of the Week goes to the Eric Young Jr. call, as he lit the world on fire in San Fran and forgot to turn it off in a home series versus the Brewers: 12 hits in five games, two homers, a stolen base, and six runs. Week 15 recommendations Patrick Corbin and Wade LeBlanc did good things pitching baseballs... What's this week got in store? Travis Snider | Pirates | OF | 5 percent Yahoo ownership | 2.3 percent ESPN ownership YTD: .299 / .341 / .519 Oliver ROS: .261 / .314 / .426 Snider probably has universal ownership in competitive NL-only leagues. But hey, he's recommended here in case your among the 0.9 percent of ESPN leaguers who inexplicably dropped Snider. He lost nearly a percent on his ownership rates despite pretty numbers as a Pirate: he's hit a homer, stolen a base, driven in five, scored eight times, and hit for a .341 clip in his 41 at-bats. Snider will take the outfield on a near-daily basis, and has 15/10 potential next year according to Oliver. To name a few with outfield eligibility that I'd ditch for Snider: Gerardo Parra (owned in 6.3 percent of ESPN leagues), Juan Pierre (18.1 percent ESPN), Alexei Amarista (7.2 percent ESPN), Tyler Colvin (11.7 percent ESPN), Bryan LaHair (22.1 percent ESPN), Carlos Quentin (35.2 percent ESPN), and Chris Young (41.7 percent ESPN). Now is the time for a shakeup, and if you own one of the above and Snider is available in your league, make the swap. Recommendation: Worth an add on most teams for his all-around offensive contributions. Replace Melky Cabrera with him where possible. Gregor Blanco | Giants | OF | 3 percent Yahoo ownership | 2 percent ESPN ownership YTD: .236 / .331 / .346 Oliver ROS: .246 / .337 / .351 More scarcely owned than Snider, Blanco is nonetheless a deplorable NL-only commodity in light of Cabrera's PED suspension. Blanco fizzled after some sizzle to start to the year, but most importantly, provided speed even when his batting average hovered around .220. In May, he stole five bases with a .315 batting clip; in June, he stole eight bases with a .218 clip. So the lesson is: When he gets on-base as a leadoff man (a role he'll have to wrestle from the hot Angel Pagan), he'll run. Nate Schierholtz forced his way out of town, Cabrera is now rendered to nothing, and Blanco slips into an everyday role. His stolen bases can hardly be found in abundance elsewhere, so add Blanco, shoot up the standings if you're within strike, and count your blessings. Recommendation: Worth an add if eight or so steals and a hefty runs scored total can help your team. Kameron Loe | Brewers | RP | 1 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.1 percent ESPN ownership YTD: 3.86 ERA / 1.37 WHIP / 7.2 K/9 Oliver ROS: 3.64 ERA / 1.17 WHIP / 6.8 K/9 It's a shame Loe is having an off year in high leverage situations, or he might have already assumed ninth-inning duties for your Barnum & Bailey Brewers bullpen. Everyone who's been given a brief bit of slack on the closer's role has quickly ceded his grip: John Axford blew up too consistently and too extravagantly to hand it back easily, Francisco Rodriguez never once flashed his dominant former self, and Jim Henderson (this year's Axford), survived on deception for less than a week it seems. So despite Loe's suspect performance in high leverage situations in his career (6.10 FIP), it's hard to imagine he won't get the next save chance after a glorious, unexpected clean ninth inning on Aug. 12. Loe flashed new high leverage chops, generating a ground ball and two strikeouts. Granted, it was against the Astros offense, but he did generate four swinging strikes on his sinker. If he can channel the nastiness in that pitch on an every-night basis, he may just succeed. Recommendation: Worth a speculative add in case he runs away with the closer's role in Milwaukee. Fernando Martinez | Astros | OF | 0 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.0 percent ESPN ownership YTD: .121 / .121 / .242 (33 at-bats) Oliver ROS: .243 / .294 / .409 (2012 forecast) The pros: -Former top prospect -.314/.367/.507 in his healthiest healthy minor league season since 2008 (92 games). -Reasonably good power -Playing time for a crappy team is still playing time The cons: -Hardly ever healthy (from our player forecasts on Oliver: "has had severe hamstring strains on both sides, knee surgery, hip strains, and now has arthritic knees at age 23") -Strikes out a lot -Has failed to impress in 57 major league games -Might get depressed playing for Astros The verdict/recommendation: Why not take a chance on him? Will probably score a good number of runs playing every day, and has flashed new level of power (mid teen level) in Triple-A this year. Eric Stults | Padres | SP| 2 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.1 percent ESPN ownership YTD: 3.02 ERA / 1.18 WHIP / 4.3 K/9 Oliver ROS: 4.25 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / 6.4 K/9 Before I begin with a Stults recommendation, take a look at this hastily made table of the home stats of Padres pitchers with 30+ innings at PETCO Park this year: Pitcher K/9 K/BB WHIP ERA FIP xFIP Luke Gregerson 8.33 3.22 0.89 1.44 2.2 3.33 Edinson Volquez 8.69 1.79 1.22 3.24 3.29 3.91 Anthony Bass 7.44 2.19 1.28 3.4 3.5 3.66 Clayton Richard 5.05 3.07 1.12 3.05 3.92 3.93 Jason Marquis 8.42 4.25 1.32 3.72 4.03 3.3 What do you notice? Every pitcher found above is worth deploying on any fantasy team in his home starts. Edinson Volquez may own a 5.60 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP on the road... ignore it. Pretend as though you only own him half the time. The newest PETCO product worth owning is ragged old Eric Stults, a minor league journeyman who failed to find a friendly home at Dodger Stadium or Coors Field. In his 200+ major league innings, he's struggled with the very thing PETCO suppresses—the home run ball—surrendering 1.13 per nine innings. His small sample size returns in his home park don't add up—three homers in 19 innings—but Hit Tracker Online confirms that all three homers allowed had "Just Enough" juice to make it into the outfield stands. Stults is like most any past PETCO recommendation: a Quad-A talent level, at best, in an opportune situation. Recommendation: Worth an add on practically any team: as a home-only stream, he won't blow up your ratio stats and might fetch you a few wins. Posted by Nick Fleder at 4:23am (2) Comments The daily grind: 8-17The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo! The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Today's grindThose in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table. The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are: Pitcher (to start): Zach McAllister against the A's is one of the better match-ups available on the wire at this time. Ross Detwiler against the Mets isn't a bad consolation prize. Pitcher (bum): Tommy Hunter has a tough match-up against the Tigers lineup. Vance Worley has bone chips in his elbow and shows. He's simply not "on" with his location or pitch movement. His two-seamer is the only reason he gets through major league outings and it's not been moving as much as when he's healthy. Three of the top five bums also pitch tonight—Jeff Francis, Nick Blackburn, and Ross Ohlendorf. They face the Marlins, Mariners and Twins respectively, but they'll probably still give up bunches of runs. Hitter (power): Besides the common names, Eric Thames, Brandon Belt and Carlos Lee are interesting power plays. Hitter (speed): For speed, look to Trayvon Robinson, Quintin Berry and Eric Young. Tomorrow's grindPatrick Corbin is looking like the top get for the day. He takes on the Astros' Triple-A affiliate. Sometimes ownership patterns befuddle me. Plenty of pitchers like Bartolo Colon are heavily owned, but he weighs in at the 29 percent level. In any case, he faces a mediocre Indians lineup, so take a shot. He's 51 percent owned, but a lot of savvy fantasy owners are afraid to touch Scott Diamond and his non-existent strikeout rate. But he's up against the Mariners tomorrow so that should work out to be a playable match-up. The Reds and Cubs have a double header, but the second game is listed as TBA. In addition to the listed Reds players, you could try Brett Jackson or David DeJesus who I did not list above due to the match-up against Cueto. In addition to double header guys, any of the A's hitters against Corey Kluber make sense. Andruw Jones is up against a resurgent Jon Lester and Dayan Viciedo has as good a chance as any to pop a bomb against Bruce Chen. Reliever watchJason Motte blew the save yesterday, but there's nothing to worry about here. Grant Balfour looks to be re-taking the closer job in Oakland. Nothing to get excited about unless you are desperate for the saves. Frank Francisco had another ugly outing, but it was a non-save situation. Look for Jon Rauch or Bobby Parnell to get the next save opportunity. Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:45am (0) Comments Monday, August 20, 2012This week in (fantasy) baseball 8/13-8/19It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a weekly basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below. 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