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Monday, September 03, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
A call to arms: With September games underway, playing time trends can become unpredictable. I can't watch 30 teams at once so if you discover a trend that can be leveraged, please share.
Today's grind
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start):Ross Detwiler is fairly reliable and it's hard to ask for a better match-up than the Cubs.
I don't know much about Jeff Locke besides his minor league numbers, but said numbers are good and the Astros lineup is not.
I'm an early fan of Patrick Corbin and I expect he'll survive his match-up with the division leading Giants just fine.
Pitcher (bum): If you're looking for a bum today, it's Bruce Chen against the Rangers. Alternatively, I don't see the Brewers being too kind to Ricky Nolasco.
Hitter (power): Jonny Gomes against C.J. Wilson tops the list of power options today. That list trails off surprisingly quick, mostly because there are a lot of solid pitchers going today.
Hitter (speed): Rajai Davis will have the platoon advantage against a thoroughly mediocre pitcher. Jon Jay has a fair match-up and could score a handful of points.
Tomorrow's grind
Kyle Kendrick is on the best run of his lifetime, allowing only four runs over his last four starts. I know some of my readers will want to ride the wave. Good luck to you, I'm going to observe from a distance.
You can try Jarrod Parker against the Angels, because he's a solid pitcher and he at least has the Oakland Coliseum on his side to slow down the Angels' powerful lineup.
Scott Hairston stands out as possessing a strong match-up.
Carlos Gomez and Norichika Aoki get to face Jacob Turner, who simply isn't ready for MLB hitters.
Our old favorite David Murphy should turn in a couple of hits against Jeremy Guthrie.
Tommy Hanson has struggled lately (to the point that I cut him in a league), which is why I like Tyler Colvin tomorrow.
Reliever watch
The Phillies received an ugly combined effort from Jeremy Horst and Jonathan Papelbon that ended in a Chipper Jones walk-off home run. The Phillies will overreact in the offseason to "fix" their struggling bullpen, but clearly Papelbon is more than safe at this point.
A question
I'm thinking about taking my down time today to experiment with a subtle format change. Basically, I would be moving the table behind the scenes and going back to reporting only the top match-ups of the day. I hope to provide some additional information as well.
My question is: given that we're in the stretch run, should I wait until next season to try a new format?
Posted by Brad Johnson at 7:17am
(6) Comments
Tuesday, September 04, 2012
It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a weekly basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.
Fantasy infirmary
• Fantasy owners who reaped the rewards of Kenley Jansen’s strong season as the Dodgers’ closer likely knew about the 24-year-old’s history with an irregular heartbeat problem, but couldn’t turn down the 25 saves and 13.7 K/9 rate. But the problem, which has cost Jansen significant playing time over the past two seasons, has popped up again, and there’s a chance Jansen could miss the rest of the season. We’ll see if he pitches again in 2012, but prudent owners might want to start taking a look at Ronald Belisario and Brandon League, each of whom could pick up save opportunities the rest of the way (for the moment, however, Belisario looks like he has the edge).
• Rafael Furcal is done for the season after injuring the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow last week. Role player Daniel Descalso will likely take things over at shortstop for the redbirds the rest of the way.
• A shoulder injury has knocked Denard Span to the disabled list, and he could be done for the season.
• Speaking of guys at risk of being lost for the season, David Ortiz remains on the DL due to a right Achilles injury.
Bumps and bruises
• Mark Teixeira has missed the last several games with a sore calf, and believes he’ll be ready to return on Thursday.
• Lower back tightness ruined Neil Walker’s usefulness in week 22, and he probably won’t be able to produce much this week.
• Just back from the DL after a fractured bone in his right leg, Jeff Niemann could be out of action after leaving Saturday’s start with right arm tightness. We’ll know in a few days the extent of the injury’s seriousness, but at the very least, Alex Cobb’s job security has increased in the starting rotation.
• Chris Tillman is scheduled to have an MRI on his right elbow today after leaving Sunday’s start against the Yankees early.
Closer moves
• It took long enough, but now that we’ve reached September, we can officially call Andrew Bailey the closer of the Red Sox. He’s yet to earn a save since taking over the job from Alfredo Aceves, but he’s worth an add in all leagues that reward saves, since his velocity appears to be back to normal upon his return.
Phenom watch
• After an up-and-down (mostly down) year in Triple-A, Cardinals’ starter Shelby Miller has been called up to the show, though it’s unclear when he’ll make his first major league start. Miller, 21, comes to the majors with mediocre stats this year (11-10, 4.74 ERA, 1.376 WHIP), but pitched in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and was 7-2 with a 2.88 ERA from July 14 onward. With a solid offense backing him up, Miller could be an intriguing spot starter down the stretch for fantasy owners.
• Jurickson Profar wowed the world with a home run in his first major league at-bat over the weekend, but he’s trying to break into a crowded infield that already features Elvis Andrus at shortstop and Ian Kinsler at second base. Profar is worth adding in all keeper leagues, but it’s not yet clear whether he’ll hold any value in 2012.
Innings watch
• All along, we knew the Nationals were thinking about shutting down Stephen Strasburg, but with the team contending to go deep into the playoffs, one couldn’t be positive that we’d actually see Washington’s ace voluntarily lost for the year. Well, now we have our answer: Strasburg will get two more starts this year, with his last coming on Sept. 12 against the Mets. Obviously, this hurts fantasy owners big time, so plan ahead.
• There’s no firm cutoff date for Jeff Samardzija, but the Cubs’ big right-hander and 2012 breakout hurler will also be shut down later this month, so keep an eye out.
Road to recovery
• Alex Rodriguez is back in action after missing nearly six weeks with a broken left hand.
• The Padres’ Andrew Cashner has returned to San Diego’s starting rotation, and the team will likely use six starters now that he’s back.
• Troy Tulowitzki has begun a minor league rehab assignment, but it doesn’t appear as if he’s close to returning.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:18am
(0) Comments
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): I feel a little silly recommend Kyle Kendrick, but the options are thin today and he's been getting the job done. I'd much rather use Jarrod Parker—even against the Angels—but his ownership rate is much higher than Kendrick's.
Pitcher (bum): There are some players in the Tigers lineup who should hit Justin Masterson pretty hard. Likewise for the Rangers and Jeremy Guthrie.
Hitter (power): Scott Hairston and Tyler Colvin have fair match-ups today against Jaime Garcia and Tommy Hanson respectively. Both pitchers are usually good but appear to be suffering from injury induced funks. Let's call David Murphy against Guthrie a power hitter since he fits neither category squarely.
Hitter (speed): Rajai Davis has the platoon advantage against the Orioles and Carlos Gomez can boast the same advantage versus Miami.
Tomorrow's grind
Mike Minor is supposedly owned in only 39 percent of leagues, but I've seen no sign of him in any of mine. In any case, I like him to put up big numbers at home against the Rockies. I also have a gut feeling he's going to be the next Javier Vazquez/ Ricky Nolasco to saber-friendly fantasy owners.
Aaron Harang against the Padres is a fine match-up.
I'm tempted to recommend the Brewers' TBA. Whoever it is will face a terrible Marlins lineup.
It's not often I point to Mariners hitters, but give the above a try tomorrow. Failing that, Brandon Moss will face an unrecognizable Dan Haren and for some reason I think the Giants might get to Trevor Cahill. The latter is one of those intuitive hunches that is really just me talking out of my bum.
Reliever watch
J.J. Putz blew the save yesterday. At this point in the season, I'm tempted to say it's too late to expect them to install David Hernandez, who I have patiently stashed for most of the season believing him to be the superior pitcher. Put him on your short list for next year.
Luke Gregerson also blew the save. Unlike with Putz, the closer situation is settled in San Diego, assuming Huston Street is ever healthy.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:01am
(9) Comments
Wednesday, September 05, 2012
As fantasy players, why are we more willing to overlook some flaws than others? This was a question I came across in a discussion regarding players like Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn. Those of us who tend to prioritize power a bit more than average are indeed guilty of seeing the glass half full for some and half empty for others. However, this isn’t a blind or arbitrary preference, as some who question this bias would have you believe.
In advance of true keeper talk, I’d like to present a few reasons why hitching yourself to the power cart is a sensible strategy.
Home run hitters drive Cadillacs
Deciding how to react to group-think can be tricky in fantasy baseball. As a veteran player, one might be tempted to see the value in zigging when everybody else zags. So, if I were to tell you that you should value power highly because others do, you might think that I’m flying right in the face of the statistical bent and market pressure point identification style of analysis for which THT is known and respected. But, it’s not that simple…
For one, unlike actual baseball, in fantasy baseball there are fewer routes to victory. You can’t just decide that batting average is the cheapest category in which to buy advantage and thus triple down on that commodity to create enough added value to win. Fantasy baseball doesn’t work that way; it inherently values balance. Even in H2H leagues, you need to dominate several categories to win. In roto leagues, you need to be near the top of every category to win. This leads to two conclusions.
First, you have to buy enough power to be competitive. This means you have to consider power at a premium if others do. If you fall too far behind in this category early into your roster, it’s difficult to make up the differential.
Second, this is a closed market. So, one category is underpriced because another is overpriced. And, since you and your competitors all have the same amount of resources to purchase your commodities, you can still get the batting average you need at a cost-effective price point even if you go along with the market and overspend for power.
The old standby
If you look at the waiver wire in a standard size league, it’s very hard to find a player who will provide even the average amount of power you need, per roster spot, to compete for a championship. Looking at a few of my 12-team leagues, at this point in the season, a team needs to average in the range of 17 homers per roster spot to be in the upper third of that category. At the same time, a batting average in the low .270s can get your there in that category.
Predictably and stemming from the first point of discussion in this article, there aren’t any players on the waiver wire in any of my 12-team leagues with 18 or more homers. The point is that if I want to improve my team’s batting average or even find a player better than championship roster slot average at that category, I can find that for free. I can alter my team’s make-up in this direction at no cost, should I deem it prudent to do so. Retooling in the opposite direction will cost you. And, post-trade- eadline, it’s essentially impossible.
This is critical to understand because it can be difficult to assemble a team that is strong in all categories throughout the season. Often, a team will have to retool a bit and strategically change its strengths at certain points in the season to reach an outcome that will ultimately achieve balanced performance across each category. Knowing which types of retooling are easier to achieve than others and how to get from one set of strengths to another is an important part of the fantasy GM’s toolkit. Personally, I learned the importance of this knowledge and sharpened my abilities to implement such strategies in fantasy basketball leagues, where some categories are ostensibly antithetical to others—turnovers/assist, or three-pointers/field goal percentage.
You always want to be going from a team skilled in the expensive stats to a team skilled in the cheap stats. You can buy a lot of less dense batting average for a 35-homer bat.
The power of predictability... of power
While both the players I referenced as archetypal power monsters and batting average killers have suffered power outages one of the past two seasons, power is generally predictable from season to season—more so than batting average.
This is effect is magnified in H2H leagues, where a team’s true skill in a category may not lead to actual wins week to week. Power skills are more predictive of actual weekly wins in the HR category than batting average strength is of categorical wins.
As you are deciding which of your marginal players to start in your playoff push weeks, I’d suggest reading Michael Lerra’s great article on weekly category influence from 2008.
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 4:38am
(1) Comments
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Mike Minor has his share of warts, but a match-up against the Rockies at Turner Field should turn out pretty well.
Aaron Harang is rarely impressive. Against the Padres he doesn't have to be.
The Brewers' TBA turned out to be Wily Peralta. I definitely recommend him against the limp-batted Marlins.
Pitcher (bum): Chris Volstad is chief among bums today with his match-up against the Nationals. There is the usual range of alternative options including Alex White against the Braves and P.J. Walters against the White Sox.
Hitter (power): Dan Haren is not himself lately and Brandon Moss stands to benefit. Take a look at Cody Ross while you're at it.
Hitter (speed): For some reason, I expect Angel Pagan to reach base repeatedly and maybe swipe a bag today. I'm not as confident about Coco Crisp, but he's more likely to make an attempt if he reaches base. Norichika Aoki has a good running match-up, so keep an eye on him as well.
Tomorrow's grind
Tomorrow might be the first truly Thin Thursday of the season. Only five games will be played, weather permitting.
And of those five, I love Marco Estrada's match-up against the Marlins. He's only 18 percent owned too.
David Phelps against the Orioles is probably playable, but that's all I can say in his favor.
Prepare for Tiny Table.
Not much to look at, eh?
Raul Ibanez has a decent match-up if Jason Hammel isn't sharp. Tyler Colvin against Tim Hudson is the other match-up that jumps out as palatable.
Reliever watch
Nothing much to see here.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:52am
(4) Comments
Thursday, September 06, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Definitely Marco Estrada against the Marlins. That's a good match-up on any day and today it's a great match-up.
I think you can get away with using David Phelps, but he's a definite step down from Estrada.
Pitcher (bum): Justin Germano is an organizational soldier, not a major league starting pitcher. He's out there to absorb innings and it wouldn't shock me if the Nationals battered him.
The Rangers vs. Royals features Scott Feldman vs. Luke Hochevar. That sounds like a high scoring game in the making.
Hitter (power): For power, Raul Ibanez and Tyler Colvin take top honors for the day. They both have the platoon advantage against decent pitchers.
Hitter (speed): David Murphy and Alcides Escobar might be the best plays for speed today/
Tomorrow's grind
Late night action will provide the tolerable pitching match-ups.
Tyler Skaggs is set to oppose Andrew Cashner at Petco in a game that makes no promises. Both pitchers are very talented and very much unpolished, so anything could happen. I'm using both throughout my various leagues.
A.J. Griffin is back from the disabled list to face the Mariners (which is good) and Felix Hernandez (which is not)
Our old favorite, Rajai Davis, is back with the platoon advantage.
The Twins have a lovely match-up against Jeanmar Gomez that could result in a whole heap of runs.
I like the Phillies against Jeff Francis, especially Erik Kratz and John Mayberry. Both hitters are among the hottest in baseball.
Reliever watch
All's quiet in the trenches.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:57am
(4) Comments
Friday, September 07, 2012
What we've learned since the last time we touched base ... Pedro Ciriaco has come back down to Earth in a big way, hitting just .118 over the past week ... Andrew Bailey converted his first save opportunity since "officially" becoming the Red Sox closer ... Dice-K got torched in his start against the A's ... David Phelps gave up six walks in less than five innings against the Orioles ... and looking even further back in the archives, our old friend Zach Britton is helping the Orioles spook the Yankees down the stretch.
Josh Donaldson | Oakland A’s | 3B/C | 13 percent Yahoo ownership; 12.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .226 / .262 / .395
ZiPS ROS: .213 / .273 / .361
No one considers Brandon Inge to be indispensable, but the veteran third baseman was helping the A’s on their way to what’s been a strong enough second half to keep them in the postseason conversation. So it was a tough break for both Inge and Oakland when the 35-year-old went down with a shoulder injury last month, one severe enough to require season-ending surgery.
That’s when Josh Donaldson took over. A catcher by trade, Donaldson, 26, learned third base entering the 2012 season, and wasn’t impressive in two major league stints in the season’s first half. But he hit .335 with 13 home runs in 234 plate appearances while down in the Pacific Coast League, and was sent for when Inge went down in mid-August.
For Donaldson, a former first-round pick, the third time around this season was most definitely the charm. The right-handed hitter has smoked a .316/.379/.595 line with five home runs since Aug. 14, when he became the team’s regular third baseman. Using the same bat as fellow under-the-radar traveler Chris Carter, Donaldson has allowed the A’s to use his power at third while giving Derek Norris playing time in the wake of Kurt Suzuki’s trade.
Donaldson’s OPS is about 70 points higher against lefties than righties, which is worth keeping in mind for week 24, when the only southpaws he faces are Joe Saunders and a hot Zach Britton. But you can’t argue with the usefulness of a player who can plug holes at both third and catcher, and considering his widespread availability, he’s probably the best available option at those positions in deeper leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in AL-only leagues so long as he’s hitting well.
Delmon Young | Detroit Tigers | OF | 37 percent Yahoo ownership; 63.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .277 / .308 / .438
ZiPS ROS: .278 / .313 / .433
Best part of drafting Young? There’s a good chance he won’t have to miss time this month to attend High Holy Day services. OK, seriously, Young has been smashing the cowhide recently, and although he’s never quite lived up to the lofty expectations he had entering the big leagues in 2006 (or the 2010 form that produced 21 home runs and 112 RBIs), he’s still useful, and will likely surpass 20 home runs and put up around 80 ribbies, so it’s not like he’s having a bad season.
But as the season enters its last month, his value has really started to flourish considering how hot he is right now. Entering Thursday’s action, Young was hitting .371/.405/.857 with four home runs since Aug. 26, the soon-to-be 27-year-old has posted a nearly 80-point improvement in OPS in the second half.
Lastly, in case anyone needs reminding, let’s not forget where Young hangs his hat every day: a lineup spot right after Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. That kind of protection and opportunity has to be worth something, especially now that the fantasy season is on the line. Find out if Young is still being overlooked in your league and introduce him to the rest of your fantasy roster.
Recommendation: Worth picking up in deeper mixed leagues.
Samuel Deduno | Minnesota Twins | SP | 3 percent Yahoo ownership; 1.3 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 3.66 ERA / 1.500 WHIP / 5.9 K/9
ZiPS ROS: 5.25 ERA / 1.83 WHIP / 6.75 K/9
Let’s start with Deduno’s best qualification for being on this list: He’s lined up for two starts in week 24, one against the abysmal Justin Masterson and the sorry Indians, and another against the White Sox and a starter to be decided. But here’s the best part: both starts are at Target Field, where Deduno, 29, is 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA, 1.184 WHIP and 9.2 K/9.
A native of the Dominican Republic, Deduno was signed by the Rockies in 2003 and entered this season as a guy who had all of 5.2 major league innings under his belt. But the Twins, desperate for pitching and not a whole lot to lose, called him up in early July, and since then, he’s allowed four runs or more in just two of his 11 starts.
He’s just below a 6 K/9 rate, and features a swinging strike rate (7.2) that’s below league average, but was able to put together a better than strikeout-per-inning clip in more than 780 minor league innings, which provides hope for the rest of 2012 and beyond. Plus, he’s throwing out grounders like a man on a mission, posting a 56.6 ground ball percentage this season, which has allowed him to brush aside a high 15.8 HR/FB rate.
True, he’s prospered partially on the strength of a soft .270 BABIP, his nearly 80 percent strand rate will probably catch up to him before the season is out, and his FIP (5.12) and xFIP (4.78) look down on his spiffy ERA. But those two match-ups are tempting, especially during the fantasy playoff crunch time.
Recommendation: Worth a pickup in AL-only leagues and some deeper mixed leagues.
Mark Reynolds | Baltimore Orioles | 1B / 3B | 50 percent Yahoo ownership; 49.6 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .232 / .350 / .447
ZiPS ROS: .228 / .337 / .468
Like pretty much everything associated with the Baltimore Orioles right now, Reynolds is on fire, having crushed six home runs and a 1.174 OPS over the past six games (excluding Thursday night’s action). At this point, you already know that harboring the 29-year-old slugger is going to leave you awash in strikeouts, and he’s typically a very streaky player, but he’s capable of putting up monster stretches.
Will week 24 be one of them? He has to play against the pitching staffs of the Rays and A’s, and has to play three games in pitcher-happy Oakland to boot, so he’s got his work cut out for him. Still, he’s on pace to post the best walk rate (14.3 percent) and strikeout rate (30.3 percent) of his career, and even though he has “only” 18 home runs, his corner eligibility should make him attractive enough for a look in deeper leagues—even if he can be expected to stay hot for only so long.
Recommendation: Reynolds’ streaky history makes me wonder how much longer he can keep it up, but then again, the Orioles seem to be riding a magic wave right now. Worth a look in AL-only leagues this week.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 3:29am
(5) Comments
Monday, September 10, 2012
It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a weekly basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.
Fantasy infirmary
• Nick Markakis fractured his thumb on Saturday, which will torpedo his season at least through the rest of this month.
• It’s official: Stephen Strasburg is done for 2012. The heated controversy behind his shutdown aside, John Lannan (2-0, 3.46 ERA, 4.8 K/9 in two starts) will take his spot in the rotation.
• Speaking of shutdowns, say goodbye to Cubs breakout star Jeff Samardzija, who finished his season on Saturday with a strong complete-game win against the Pirates.
• Considering the Red Sox’s chronic misfortunes this year, it doesn’t sound as if there’s a need to rush back David Ortiz, who’s still suffering from a right Achilles’ strain.
• J.A. Happ fractured his right foot and won’t be returning in 2012. Expect the Blue Jays to plug the rotation spot with Brandon Morrow, who last week made his first start since June and pitched six strong innings.
• Chad Billingsley is looking at Tommy John surgery after a MRI revealed a partially torn ligament in his right elbow.
• It doesn’t sound as if Franklin Morales will be returning this season due to a sore shoulder.
Other bumps and bruises
• Jake Westbrook is suffering from a strained right oblique and will miss at least his next start. As of Sunday, the team did not announce his replacement, though Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller are logical options.
Road to recovery
• Look for Troy Tulowitzki to return to major league action this week after missing more than three months with a left groin injury. When he returns, it sounds as if Josh Rutledge will move over to second base.
• Ivan Nova is back from a shoulder injury, but it appears as if he’ll pitch out of the bullpen in the immediate term. He’ll likely return to the starting rotation soon enough, so it comes down to him either bumping Freddy Garcia or David Phelps out of a job (as of Sunday, Phelps looked like the leading candidate to lose his rotation spot).
• The Blue Jays got Brett Lawrie and J.P. Arencibia back last week.
• Jason Hammel looked strong in his return from knee surgery last week, pitching into the sixth inning while allowing just one run against the Yankees on Friday.
• Starling Marte returned over the weekend from an oblique injury.
• Indians third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall rejoined the team on Sunday after missing two months with a fractured wrist.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:03am
(0) Comments
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): It feels weird to keep recommending Kyle Kendrick. The Marlins have a dreadful offense, so the match-up is right, but I'm eventually going to get egg on my face.
Opposing Kendrick is Wade LeBlanc, who basically has the same story. He's a low strikeout guy who's performed much better than expected recently.
I like Jarrod Parker, so I'll recommend him against the Angels again.
Pitcher (bum): A few of the Rockies' best relievers will be out today after yesterday's doubleheader. With Alex White on a 75-pitch count, the Giants need only knock him out early and get to the soft underbelly of call-ups.
Usually it brings me much joy to point out when Chris Volstad is starting, but the Astros' lineup is singularly uninspiring. They've scored the fewest runs in baseball, mostly because they hired half their team off the street.
Dallas Keuchel opposes Volstad and you know what? It's kind of the same story. The Cubs are the second most terribad offense.
Hitter (power): John Mayberry Jr. didn't have a big doubleheader, but he's a hot commodity right now and he'll have the platoon advantage tomorrow. He puts up good numbers versus lefties.
Ryan Doumit will face Justin Masterson. He's had some past issues with lefty power hitters although Doumit is hardly Babe Ruth.
Hitter (speed): Have I ever mentioned this guy whose bandwagon I drive? His name is Carlos Gomez and he has the platoon advantage tomorrow.
Ben Revere and Denard Span also face Masterson from the left side. We'll see if they can reach base and swipe a few.
Tomorrow's grind
You have options, but they don't have great match-ups.
First up is Marco Estrada, who will face the curiously productive Braves. I've yet to figure out why that lineup is scoring runs since it's the same bland group of guys as the last two years.
Jhoulys Chacin against the Giants combines one of my favorite waiver guys with a palatable match-up. Unfortunately, that 75-pitch limit really ruins things.
The Angels have some key contributors slumping and Dan Straily will hope that continues tomorrow.
I skipped Andruw Jones the last couple times he's shown up, but against Jon Lester he should be a good start.
Garrett Jones is over-owned for this column, but I've seen him in a couple leagues. It's worth noting that Travis Snider would be a good option if he wasn't banged up. So don't pick up Travis Snider for tomorrow.
I half expect Brandon Belt to conclude the season with some solid production. Similar to above, Angel Pagan is owned by too many people, but I forgot to remove him from the table.
I'm going to climb out on my thinnest limb and whisper the name Brett Jackson...
...and then leap down to a sturdier limb and suggest David Murphy.
Reliever watch
Alfredo Aceves is being stretched out to start, so grab Andrew Bailey while you can. I was saying they should do this weeks ago (right around when I noticed Aaron Cook was still taking regular turns).
Addison Reed is kind of imploding down the stretch. With Hector Santiago in the rotation and Matt Thornton overexposed as the ninth inning man, Brett Myers could see the save opportunities down the stretch. Reed still has the makings of an elite reliever long term.
Someone let Heath Bell (cough*Ozzie*) onto the field where he proceeded to cough up the lead. Color me surprised. While you're doing that, describe to me how one colors another surprised. I imagine a heady mix of blues and yellows and reds.
Chris Perez is gurgling about being traded and the Indians ownership will likely oblige. Perez may have a rude awakening when a first-division team uses him as a middle reliever.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:42am
(4) Comments
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
SUPREME COURT OF FANTASY JUDGMENT
Nub Vader vs. 4 Ponies
ON PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI FROM THE INCONTINENT LEAGUE
Decided September 1, 2012
Cite as 4 F.J. 233 (September 2012)
Factual Background
A rotisserie fantasy baseball league called The Incontinent League (hereinafter referred to as “roto league” or “IL” is an 11-team NL-only keeper league utilizing an auction-style draft and transaction platform. Teams are permitted to maintain up to ten (10) players during each off-season with individual players allowed to be kept for a maximum of three (3) consecutive years under contract. Each team is also permitted to keep two minor league players which are in addition to the ten players kept. This roto league also has a $26.00 draft salary cap, as well as a $36.00 in-season salary cap that is applicable for all teams.
As with many rotisserie leagues, the Incontinent League uses the standard 5×5 scoring categories to determine the standings and prize money. For offensive players, the five categories are: (1) batting average; (2) homeruns; (3) runs batted in; (4) runs scored; and (5) stolen bases. For pitchers, the five categories are: (1) wins; (2) earned run average; (3) WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched); (4) strikeouts; and (5) saves. Statistics are cumulative throughout the course of the season and there are no head to head games contained within the Roto league.
The Incontinent League submitted a proposed trade between two league members and seeks an opinion on whether the trade should be approved.
Procedural History
Nub Vader has made a trade with the 4 Ponies. Nub Vader traded Dee Gordon (SS-LAD, $0.50 with one year remaining on his existing contract), Anthony Rizzo ($0.50 with one year remaining on his existing contract), Andrelton Simmons (SS-ATL, $1.00 in the first year of his existing contract), Devin Mesoraco (C-CIN, $0.50 in the first year of his existing contract) and Jacob Turner (SP-MIA, $0.50 minor league salary) to the 4 Ponies in exchange for Wilin Rosario (C-COL, $0.50 with one year remaining on his existing contract), Michael Fiers (SP-MIL, $0.50 in the first year of his existing contract), Tyler Colvin (OF-COL, $0.20 in the first year of his existing contract) and Oscar Taveras (OF-STL, $0.50 minor league salary).
Issue Presented
(1) Should the trade between Nub Vader and the 4 Ponies be approved?
Decision
The Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment typically favors individual fantasy sports participants and teams’ ability to make moves, transactions, and trades. People pay money to participate in fantasy leagues, and generally they should be afforded the freedom to manage their team accordingly. Whether success is bred from that individual’s decision-making is purely left to some skill, luck, dedication, and savviness. See 4 Ponies v. Carson City Cocks, 3 F.J. 13 (May 2011).
It is well documented that there is a different analysis of trades in a keeper league as opposed to a non-keeper league. A trade that may look facially uneven or lopsided could easily pass muster in a keeper league. Trades made between teams in a keeper league need to be analyzed by other factors besides merely comparing statistics. Grave Diggers vs. Chilidogs, 4 F.J. 5, 8 (January 2012). These other factors include salary cap flexibility, contractual status of players, and long-term planning at the expense of the current season. Smittydogs vs. Moneyball, 1 F.J. 32, 33 (June 2010); Winners vs. Seven Shades of Shite, 3 F.J. 97, 102 (July 2011) (holding that team owners in keeper leagues with no hope of contending in the current season must make critical roster management decisions of whether to trade established players to help build for the future).
The Court will evaluate the objective merits of a deal and ensure that the integrity of the league is maintained. See Victoria’s Secret vs. C-Train, 2 F.J. 32, 35 (October 2010). The Court will not undermine a fantasy owner’s ability to manage his/her team unless a deal is unfair or inequitable, ripe with collusion, or not in the best interests of the league. Whether a trade is objectively intelligent or popular will not be part of the analysis. 4 Ponies vs. Beaver Hunters, 3 F.J. 26, 27 (June 2011). The virtue of a trade is measured in both quantifiable criteria and subjective needs of the teams involved. Carson City Cocks vs. Stud Muffins, 3 F.J. 23, 24 (May 2011).
No evidence has been submitted indicating any alleged collusion or malfeasance. As such, the Court will operate on the presumption that there is no collusive conduct between the parties.
At first glance, the trade of Dee Gordon, Anthony Rizzo, Andrelton Simmons, Devin Mesoraco and Jacob Turner in exchange for Wilin Rosario, Michael Fiers, Tyler Colvin and Oscar Taveras looks fair and equitable. None of the players involved in this deal are considered elite for purposes of requiring additional scrutiny merely because of how valuable they are based on their statistics and name recognition See Steelers vs. Patriots, 3 F.J. 216, 220 (November 2011). However, several of these players are stars with significant value.
This trade represents two teams who have already punted the current season after previous trades they have made, including with each other. See Nub Vader vs. 4 Ponies, 4 F.J. 122 (July 2012). When a team owner in a keeper league no longer has any hope for contending in the current season, he must make a critical roster management decision of whether to trade off established players in an attempt to build for the future. Winners v. Seven Shades of Shite, 3 F.J. 97, 102 (July 2011). This trade demonstrates an ability for two rebuilding teams to satisfy each other’s needs in a non-remarkable manner.
The best player in this trade is arguably Anthony Rizzo, who is now being traded back to the 4 Ponies only after being acquired less than two months before. See Nub Vader vs. 4 Ponies, 4 F.J. 122 (July 2012). The Court notes the record is devoid of any rules in the Incontinent League which prohibits tradebacks. Tradebacks are defined as trades made between two teams whereby a player is returned directly to the team that previously traded him from the team he was directly traded to. The Court also notes that it is common for fantasy leagues to prohibit this type of transaction in order to prevent a “player rental” scenario. Given that the rules are silent about this, it will not factor in the analysis of the trade itself.
The rest of the players involved are all relatively young and unproven commodities with different degrees of upside. Rosario has displayed impressive power for a catcher with 23 homeruns, but Mesoraco is certainly equitable compensation for him when considering his potential. Despite platooning most of the season and not having great offensive numbers, Mesoraco is the catcher of the future for the Reds and should become more consistent over time.
Jacob Turner was a highly-touted prospect with the Tigers before being dealt to Miami earlier in the season. He will get an opportunity to entrench himself as a fixture in the Marlins’ rotation as they attempt to establish an identity going forward. In exchange, Nub Vader acquires Michael Fiers who has been a pleasant surprise on a disappointing Milwaukee Brewers team. Fiers has amassed 8 wins with a 2.85 ERA and is averaging over a strikeout per inning.
Andrelton Simmons was very impressive in his time with the Braves before sustaining an injury which derailed his season. He replaced an unproductive Tyler Pastornicky and should be given the chance to establish himself as the Braves shortstop of the future. But the biggest question mark in this trade is arguably Dee Gordon. Gordon was given the everyday shortstop job but did not produce anything offensively, and then his fielding skills suffered. Blessed with tremendous speed, Gordon could not get on base enough to sustain fantasy value with stolen bases. Then Gordon got hurt and Los Angeles acquired Hanley Ramirez to take over at shortstop. The plan going forward is to leave Ramirez there which means Gordon is likely going to end up back in the minors or get traded.
When analyzing the fairness and equity of a trade, the Court will consider each team’s individual needs to assess whether the trade subjectively made sense from each team’s perspective. See Cajon Crawdads vs. Carson City Cocks, 1 F.J. 41, 42 (June 2010) (upholding a trade for Jason Bay because of the Carson City Cocks’ desperate need for a starting outfielder due to the demotion of Cameron Maybin). This trade makes sense for both teams. The players included in both packages have upside and are relatively inexpensive in terms of fantasy salary cap value so that neither team is handcuffed with a burdensome contract.
A trade will be rejected when the Court cannot objectively ascertain any benefit to one of the teams and the net result in no way makes a team better now or in the future. Los Pollos Hermanos v. Little Stumps, 3 F.J. 192, 195 (October 2011). As previously discussed, the trade includes a plethora of young players with upside. Both teams assume the same risks involved with unproven talent, but there is enough talent included to make it worth the exchange.
The difference in salary cap with this trade is $1.30 which is negligible for both teams. This deal epitomizes trades that are made in keeper leagues where teams decide to either compete for the current season or look to build for the future. The value of the players involved is commensurate with both teams’ needs. Based on the foregoing reasons, the Court hereby decides that the subject trade should be approved as it comports with the best interests of the league.
IT IS SO ORDERED.
Posted by Michael Stein at 4:53am
(4) Comments
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