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 Tuesday, September 11, 2012The daily grind: 9-11The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo! The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Today's grindThose in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday's table. The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are: Pitcher (to start): Marco Estrada is back with yet another chance to impress me. I keep giving him chances and he keeps turning in middling performances. He'll be facing the Braves today, so he's far from a lock for strong production. Dan Straily is back on the bump after nearly a month-long hiatus from the majors. He's had two strong outings and one poor one thus far, so it will be interesting to see how he does against a potent offense like the Angels. Pitcher (bum): Ubaldo Jimenez is a shadow of his former self, and the Rangers will get an opportunity to see if they can hit shadows. Maybe I've been watching too many Phillies games, but I have this feeling that Nathan Eovaldi is not going to have a pleasant experience tonight. Hitter (power): Seth Smith is back in the game and will be up against Jerome Williams. Brandon Moss will also benefit from that match-up. Column favorite Andruw Jones draws Jon Lester today. I like the idea of Brandon Belt in Colorado. Hitter (speed): If you truly have the need for speed, I recommend Coco Crisp. If what you really need is a well rounded player who might swipe a bag, take a look at David Murphy. Tomorrow's grindAlex Cobb is another guy I keep trying only to receive mediocre results. The Orioles are a solid match-up for the Rays and the series has playoff implications, which is doubly interesting. A.J. Griffin has certainly impressed thus far, and he turned in another great outing last week in his return from the disabled list. Clayton Richard and the Padres have been surging. They'll look to play spoiler to the Cardinals this week. It's a busy day for hitters. Smith, Moss and Crisp return tomorrow, although Ervin Santana has performed very well over the past month. Carlos Gomez has the platoon advantage on his side against a weak pitcher. Ditto for David Murphy and Scott Hairston. The Tigers, Twins and Royals are all facing flammable pitchers. Reliever watchA month later, the Astros listened to me and released Francisco Cordero. Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:43am (5) Comments Wednesday, September 12, 2012Red light, green lightThe nitty gritty is upon us. Over the past few weeks, I’ve stressed the importance of grinding out points and scraping the margins for the extra handful of stats that can steal the point or two you may need to win your league. Here at THT Fantasy, we often preach the advantages to be gained from getting the best of your players, especially those toward the end of your roster. To achieve this—like a real manager—you must populate your lineup spots with players who are in a position to succeed. Stolen bases is often a close category, where a team that is able to manufacture a mini-surge at the end of a season can climb multiple points in the standings. I spent some time this week looking at catchers who are best at preventing stolen bases as well as most teams’ end-of-season schedules (starting from next Monday). Marginal basestealers, of whom there are often several on your waiver wire, can become full-fledged speedsters against teams inept at stopping the running game. Players whose stats may lead you to think are helpful in the steal category often turn shy against the Yadier Molinas and Miguel Monteros of the world. First, for those of you motivated enough to drop and add by series, here are my list of red light and green light teams. Red light: Arizona Diamondbacks St. Louis Cardinals Cincinnati Reds Philadelphia Phillies Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Dodgers These six teams all have ostensible everyday catchers who are adept at controlling the running game. Baltimore and Los Angeles aren’t as proficient as the teams above them, but they are certainly good enough to force non-elite speedsters and their managers to think twice. Green light Houston Pittsburgh Boston Minnesota Chicago (A) New York (A) Cleveland New York (N) Texas *San Francisco Many of these teams have a catcher-by-committee approach, but don’t worry about who is behind the dish when in most of these cases all options are unable to protect against the steal. The top four teams in this list strike me as the absolute worst in the league at stopping the running game. I’ve included San Francisco with an asterisk because while Buster Posey has thrown out a very respectable 28.6 percent of base stealers this year, teams run an awful lot against the Giants (perhaps because of their ballpark and pitching staff, which compel teams to try to “manufacture” runs). So, while rate isn’t particularly favorable there, volume seems to be on your side. Big picture For those less willing to micromanage and would rather pick up a player or two off the wire and run with them, here are a few things I noticed when looking at overall schedules and how they may affect one’s ability to steal a few steals.
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 2:12am (1) Comments Thursday, September 13, 2012The daily grind: 9-13The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo! The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Today's grindThe Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are: Pitcher (to start): Today's a big start for Wei-Yin Chen against the Rays. The O's are in a dog fight for first with the Yankees, while the Rays have fallen to three games back. Phil Hughes is 53 percent owned, but his match-up against the depleted Red Sox should reap some rewards. Tyler Cloyd is underwhelming and he's pitching on short rest, but the Astros offense is particularly pitiful these days. Pitcher (bum): Liam Hendriks against the Royals. Need I explain myself? Honorable mention goes to Fernando Abad against the white hot Phillies. Hitter (power): I'm crossing my fingers that the Phillies throw Darin Ruf a start against the left-handed Abad. Andruw Jones is also on the docket with Felix Doubront opposing. Hitter (speed): Ben Revere, Denard Span and Alcides Escobar round out the speed crew today. Tomorrow's grindThere are four solid options to choose from today. A couple are solid pitchers against good lineups, like Ross Detwiler against the Braves and Hisashi Iwakuma versus the Rangers. And a the other two are inconsistent youngsters who have great talent—namely Tyler Skaggs against the Giants and Andrew Cashner at Petco against the Rockies. It's been awhile since I've gotten to use Jonny Gomes around these parts. Teammates Chris Carter and Coco Crisp join him in a solid match-up. Will Venable is hot these days and Tyler Chatwood is not. That combination could result in some stolen bases. Cody Ross is owned at a 43 percent rate, but his match-up against Aaron Laffey is first rate if he's available. Reliever watchNothing to see here. Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:39am (2) Comments Friday, September 14, 2012NL Waiver Wire: Week 21Recap: Brandon League appeared in three one-run victories by the Dodgers in his past five games, with two saves and a win to show for it... Ronald Belisario seems to be the superior pitcher—more ground balls, more biting sliders that League nowadays lacks, and a faster fastball—but League has the experience that Dodgers manager Don Mattinglyapparently assigns heavy weight to... Hope you picked up the former despite my recommendation... John Mayberry has been excellent in September, but unfortunately, his home runs have turned into doubles... He’ll hit a few more down the stretch run, and the plate discipline displayed this month (nine walks in 40 at-bats, compared to 20 in his previous 336 at-bats) is both unexpected and welcomed...Yasmani Grandal’s managed a single home run since we last chatted, and Jimmy Paredes only a single stolen base. Meanwhile, Casey Kelly’s been a bona fide disaster since his debut... Two home runs surrendered at Coors Field: acceptable; three home runs surrendered at PETCO Park: inexcusable... Opponents have pounded the following pitches over the fence against Kelly: a change-up slightly up from the center of the zone that caught a good deal of the plate (Tyler Colvin), a fastball down the middle that caught a good deal of the plate (Ramon Hernandez), a fastball low and inside that still caught a good deal of the plate (Jason Kubel), a waist-high fastball that caught a good deal of the plate (Aaron Hill), and a hanging curveball that caught a good deal of the plate... I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that Casey Kelly should try to pitch more to the corners of the zone... For this week, let’s try something new. How about we go category-by-category? No recommendations, no upside plays: you decide where you need the most help in the stretch run, and you target these guys for help. RunsChris Denorfia | Padres | OF | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 4.4 percent ESPN ownership YTD: 48 runs in 300 at-bats ZiPS ROS: Six runs in 14 games Scrappy and speedy, Denorfia won’t play every day, but might be your best bet to squeak a few runs out of the waiver wire. He’s tallied a run scored in six out of his last seven starts (all coming in September), scoring multiple times in three of those games. The Padres, by the way, are managing 5.72 runs a game in the current month, and Denorfia is the benefactor as the leadoff man. When he plays, he scores. Mark Ellis | Dodgers | 2B | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 3.4 percent ESPN ownership YTD: 57 runs in 351 at-bats ZiPS ROS: Six runs in 13 games With Dee Gordon relegated to the bench as a result of the Hanley Ramirez Experiment, Mark Ellis has assumed leadoff duties. The Dodgers offense is stagnant as can be—13 runs in their last seven games—but in the past week, the team has a batting average on balls in play of .237. Roll the dice on the luck correcting itself, and those middle-of-the-order guys in blue driving Ellis home. Stolen basesJustin Maxwell | Astros | OF | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.3 percent ESPN ownership YTD: Eight steals, 14 homers in 255 at-bats ZiPS ROS: Two steals, two homers in 13 games Maxwell is finding himself with more and more playing time as the Astros hold auditions for 2013, and his power/speed platter should help plenty of owners with just a single switch. In these messy days of the season, he might be unclaimed or ignored: don’t let it stay that way. Home runsScott Hairston | Mets | OF | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.9 percent ESPN ownership YTD: 17 home runs in 318 at-bats ZiPS ROS: Two home runs in 13 games The notable lefty-masher should be inserted into some lineups every day: he’s hit three pinch hit home runs, 10 off of lefties, and two in his three games this week. Skill is of secondary importance in the final days; a hot masher who could hit a few more long balls by season’s end is a more valuable commodity than some realize. WinsEdgar Gonzalez | Astros | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.9 percent ESPN ownership YTD: Two wins in two starts ZiPS ROS: Zero wins in one start Having an able-working body is more than three-fourths of the game at this point. Unless you’re within striking distance in the ratio categories, why not deploy every starter you can get your hands on? A blowup will hardly make a mark. Take that into consideration when using Gonzalez, who has a shoddy track record from 41 previous major league starts (a near-six ERA) but has flashed an improved slider and control in his two starts thus far with the Astros (both wins). Why not roll the dice? StrikeoutsJeff Francis | Rockies | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.6 percent ESPN ownership YTD: 67 strikeouts in 95 innings ZiPS ROS: Nine strikeouts in 13 innings With the above point in mind, look at Francis, who's upped his strikeout per nine innings ratio in each month. In September, his ERA of 7.30 is only slightly lower than his 11.68 strikeout per nine innings ratio. Such a rate won’t continue, but there's no harm in seeing if Francis' mixed bag won't produce another dozen or so strikeouts amidst the runs on runs on runs. Andrew Werner | Padres | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 5.6 percent ESPN ownership YTD: 23 strikeouts in 24-plus innings ZiPS ROS: N/A A superior option to Francis, Werner isn’t likely available in many still-competitive leagues. If he is, though, pounce without hesitation; opponents have yet to figure out Werner’s tricks. He generates ground balls, pounds the strike zone early, and throws a sneaky-deceptive mix of a slider, four-seamer, curveball and changeup. Six strikeouts or more in his past three starts is eye-catching; why not see if he can continue the streak? Posted by Nick Fleder at 3:50am (0) Comments The daily grind: 9-14The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo! The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Today's grindThose in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table. The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are: Pitcher (to start): You have your choice today. You can choose one of two reliable starters against a strong lineup. That's Ross Detwiler against the Braves or Hisashi Iwakuma against the Rangers. Or you can choose one of two high upside prospects against a weak lineup. That's Tyler Skaggs versus the Giants or Andrew Cashner at Petco against the Rockies. Pitcher (bum): You have some choices here as well. The Reds face Jacob Turner in one of the most exploitable match-ups of the day. The Tigers will see Corey Kluber. Hitter (power): Jonny Gomes, Chris Carter, and Cody Ross are the power plays of the day. Hitter (speed): I stick by my assertion that Will Venable is hot, even if that isn't strictly true in the last two weeks. It's all a matter of perspective. Coco Crisp is a nice alternative. Tomorrow's grindPhillies fans have pretty much accepted that Kyle Kendrick is now a good pitcher, but I'm not buying. He's reduced his repertoire from three pitches to two and while his command and control are very sharp at the moment, I've seen similar stretches from him in the past and they've ended in time. There's a decent chance he holds it together through the end of the season and against the Astros there's all the more reason to roll the dice. Jenrry Mejia will be starting for the Mets against the Brewers. I wouldn't try him, but he's certainly interesting enough to mention. What's going on with Jarrod Parker's ownership (40 percent)? He should be owned in twice that number of leagues and that statement has been true for months now. Is it because he's an Athletic? Plenty of power choices today. Chris Johnson will get some hacks against Barry Zito. Elsewhere, Gomes, Carter and Crisp will be at it against another lefty opponent in Zach Britton. Carlos Ruiz is surprisingly over-owned for a guy who starts every couple of days—53 percent. However, I'm told he is expected to start today and Sunday and he doesn't seem to have missed a beat during his time off. He will join John Mayberry Jr. with a strong match-up against Dallas Keuchel. Maybe you're saying, I need a speedster. I have a hunch that Quintin Berry will get the start against Justin Masterson. Reliever watchJoe Nathan blew his second save of the season, which at this late stage is probably all I need to say. Nevertheless, I will specifically state that Nathan's job is very secure. Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:39am (10) Comments Monday, September 17, 2012This week in (fantasy) baseball 9/10-9/16It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a weekly basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below. Fantasy infirmary | ||||