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 Monday, September 24, 2012The daily grind: 9-24The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo! The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. It's down to the wire and with that comes a slight shift in presentation. Today's grindThe Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are: Pitcher (to start): Grind favorite Marco Estrada is being noticed by more people (35 percent owned). Against the Nationals, it is best to tread carefully. Wei-Yin Chen is owned at a 44 percent rate, but I picked him up in two leagues yesterday, so he's ostensibly available for some of you. Dan Straily is interesting, but he also is opposed by the Rangers. Andy Pettitte is scheduled against the lefty-leaning Twins lineup. It's just the second start back from the disabled list for Pettitte, so expect it to be a high variance outing. Pitcher (bum): Bums don't mean much these days since teams have 15-man bullpens to clean up any messes. That said, Ricky Romero has had a difficult season and will be starting game two of today's double header. Liam Hendriks isn't a very good pitcher. The Yankees lineup is depleted, but not THAT depleted. Hitter (power): Raul Ibanez popped a couple home runs the other day and against Hendriks, he'll have a chance to repeat. It's a Jonny Gomes day with lefty Derek Holland opposing the A's. Hitter (speed): With two games today, Rajai Davis and Nate McLouth are both solid selections. McLouth isn't much of a runner, but Davis could potentially swipe several. Tomorrow's grindPitcher (to start): None of tomorrow's pitchers combine the qualities of good match-up with availability. Tyler Skaggs might be the best pitcher you can acquire on short notice. He has great stuff, but he hasn't quite figured out the big league level yet. Edinson Volquez pitches at home against the Dodgers and is 47 percent owned. Pitcher (bum): While all the good names are taken, there are plenty of bums to exploit. The game between the Indians and White Sox pits Corey Kluber against Francisco Liriano. Expect runs to score. The Tigers should rough up Bruce Chen and the Royals. They still trail the White Sox by just one game, so they need to take advantage of weak opponents. The Yankees are likely to touch up Esmerling Vasquez for a couple runs. I haven't scouted the guy yet, so I can't say more. Hitter (power): Vasquez is a good match-up for Yankees' lefty Ibanez, so hold him a second day. Delmon Young will be pleased to face Chen. Young likes lefties and it's probably fair to say that Chen is one of the easier ones to face. Hitter (speed): Ben Revere slaps a lot of balls into play, and the Yankees infield defense isn't known for its flash. Norichika Aoki has closed out the season on a strong note. Let's see if he can continue swiping bags at will. Davis will get another start with the platoon advantage tomorrow. It's hard to decide where Craig Gentry goes as he's mostly an average hitter with little power or stolen base potentially. He's more likely to steal a bag than hit a home run, so I'll slot him in here. Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:40am (3) Comments Tuesday, September 25, 2012The daily grind: 9-25The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo! The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Today's grindThe Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are: Pitcher (to start): Yesterday I felt pretty safe using Marco Estrada and Wei-Yin Chen. How wrong I was. Today I feel very uncomfortable with Tyler Skaggs and Edinson Volquez, but that's what's available. Reader Tom likes Erasmo Ramirez, but I'm not on that particular bandwagon yet. Pitcher (bum): A couple of offensive powerhouses face weak pitching today. The Yankees will see Esmerling Vazquez, who has struggled in big league exposure. Meanwhile, in the Motor City, you'll find Bruce Chen opposing the Tigers. The Indians and White Sox game could also feature some fireworks. Both Corey Kluber and Francisco Liriano have struggled this season. Hitter (power): Raul Ibanez has been very good over the last few days going 7-for-12 in his last three games with five extra base hits and three home runs. Against Vasquez, that performance could very well continue. Delmon Young has great career numbers against Chen, which means very little. He has strong numbers against lefties as a whole which means a lot more. What's probably most important is that we're talking about Bruce Chen. Hitter (speed): There's not a lot to say about the speed guys today. Ben Revere, Norichika Aoki and Rajai Davis are solid gambles to snag a base. Tomorrow's grindPitcher (to start): It's another rough day for starters as fantasy owners look for that one last hurrah. Kyle Kendrick stands out, but he's got to turn back into a pumpkin eventually and he's up to 39 percent owned. Alex Cobb against the Red Sox is a stealthy pick. Cobb is an inconsistent, mid-rotation pitcher, but the Red Sox are quite depleted. I'm not comfortable with Jarrod Parker against the Rangers and I'm not a fan of Martin Perez for fantasy purposes, but they're going to end up being some of the better gambles to make up an innings deficit over the next week. Pitcher (bum): The Cardinals looked like they were going to fall on their face down the stretch, but they merely tripped and recovered. Against Bud Norris tomorrow I expect them to unleash a punishing assault. Jeremy Hefner didn't record an out in his last start. The Pirates are playing for more in this game, aiming at a .500 or better season. How do the Twins have so many terrible pitchers? The Yankees should continue their slugging ways against Samuel Deduno. Hitter (power): Hold the course with Ibanez, who has yet another good match-up. I usually recommend guys with the platoon advantage, but try Starling Marte against Hefner. Jonny Gomes will get a look at Rangers prospect Perez. Hitter (speed): Will Venable has a solid match-up with Aaron Harang. Venable is a little too prone to strikeouts for a speedster type, but Harang doesn't exactly record heaps of those. Stick with Aoki for speed. He's swiping bags in bunches. Reliever watchHeath Bell caused some controversy in a radio interview yesterday by suggesting the Marlins could benefit from a manager less prone to buffoonery. He also seems to be disgruntled about not being the closer, stating that he's pitched well since a rough April. I'm not sure he's looked at his numbers. It might be worth noting that his FIPs are considerably better than his ERAs. Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:37am (5) Comments Wednesday, September 26, 2012Building backwards?Those who have kept up with the position-by-position dynamics of fantasy baseball have noticed the emergence of pitching depth in the past few years. There are two predominant and opposing schools of thought regarding how to work with this dynamic from a team-building perspective. One view tells us that depth allows us to deprioritize pitching in your draft/auction because adequate quality players at that position can be found late and cheap. The alternative view preaches that because adequate quality players are so abundant, an extra premium should be placed on acquiring the elite pitchers, as that’s where the top teams will separate themselves from the pack. In most situations I play out the first perspective when building my team. In one of my leagues this year, a co-owner and I were attempting to work this strategy again, but as the season began to play out we found our team somewhat accidentally employing a different strategy altogether. We’ve been doing okay with it, and are currently holding down second place in a very competitive 12-team mixed league. I’ll spare you the details of how we got where we did, except to say that trading wasn’t really involved. Ostensibly, we wound up with a pitching staff that looked like it was built in reverse. Only one starter we drafted has remained on our team the entire season (others were lost to both injury and performance), but we hit several homers on our bullpen construction and have a really solid core anchored by Aroldis Chapman, Jim Johnson and Ernesto Freire. This core has been supplemented by a revolving door of elite non-closer relievers and a few part-time closers we managed to land. We are holding our own with 38 pitching points as I’m writing this and have spent most of the season somewhere between the third and sixth best staff in terms of total points held. So, this got me to thinking: Is this strategy viable—meaning both doable and reasonably likely to yield success—if you tried to do execute it consciously? I’m not sure there’s an objective way to analyze that question, so I’d rather pose it for discussion instead. To start off, I’m going to list some benefits, drawbacks, assumptions, and risks for this approach. I hope we can all discuss whether they translate into a hit, a dud, or something in between. Strengths
Weaknesses
Risks
Assumptions
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 3:51am (5) Comments The daily grind: 9-26The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo! The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Today's grindThe Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are: Pitcher (to start): As a reader pointed out yesterday, if I'm going to take the time to mention that Jarrod Parker and Martin Perez have marginal match-ups, then I might as well point out that Clayton Richard is a nice option to accrue innings. He's a low-risk, low-reward option and he's category-neutral across the board. Alex Cobb has been up and down all season. I like him as a mid-rotation pitcher and somebody you can outright own in a deep league. On a start-to-start basis there is a lot of noise. The match-up against the Red Sox is a good one. Kyle Kendrick is the divisive player of the day. I sketched up a brief scouting report yesterday in the comments section, which I'll quote below. If you need to throw a Hail Mary, use him. If you need to conservatively defend your position, maybe try Richard. Re: Kendrick. I’ve been in the Philly area for his last 10 starts, so I’ve seen them. I’ve also seen him pitch a LOT over the years. He’s a solid pitcher when he has command of his fastball. During that impressive stretch, he had that requirement down. During his last two outings, it has not been the same. Pitcher (bum): I spilled some words about Bud Norris, Jeremy Hefner and Samuel Deduno yesterday. It suffices to say that these pitchers are prone to crooked numbers. Hitter (power): Raul Ibanez has been popular around these parts since the Twins feature so many terrible right-handed pitchers. Starling Marte against the aforementioned Hefner offers some five category potential. Jonny Gomes will get a shot at Martin Perez. Hitter (speed): Will Venable has a decent match-up and could swipe a bag. Now that the Brewers are all but eliminated, Norichika Aoki might stop swiping bags. Then again, he's probably playing for a job next year so he might finish at full throttle. Tomorrow's grindPitcher (to start): I picked up Roy Halladay, Chris Capuano and Tommy Hanson for tomorrow, but I assume they aren't available to you. What is available is a whole mess of blah. Patrick Corbin should survive an outing against the Giants with little damage. I like Corbin as one of those mid-rotation pitchers who can help a fantasy roster. Wily Peralta has a tougher match-up against the Reds, but at this point, they're trying to get guys rested for the postseason. Pitcher (bum): I don't think Chris Volstad is going to like pitching in Coors. I have a bad feeling about Tyler Cloyd tonight. The Nationals have quite a few potent lefties to call upon. I foresee the Braves walloping Jacob Turner. It might be worth noting that five of his last six outings have been of the "not terrible" variety. Hitter (power): Tyler Colvin is an ideal play against Volstad. Hold the course with Gomes, although Matt Harrison is a tough opponent. Hitter (speed): I suppose Rajai Davis against Ivan Nova is what you're looking for here. Nobody stands out as an A+ option today. Reliever watchThere are a number of bullpens in an utter shambles now, but it hardly matters for fantasy purposes at this point. Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:39am (1) Comments Thursday, September 27, 2012The daily grind: 9-27The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo! The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Today's grindThe Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are: Pitcher (to start): Not much to go on tonight. Patrick Corbin is a solid pitcher and the Giants are coasting toward the playoffs. On the one hand, it's not an ideal match-up. On the other hand, there isn't enough time left to wait for a better one. Wily Peralta has a similar story in that he has solid stuff and he's facing a clinched team. The downside here is that the Reds are still playing for the right to face the Wild Card team in the division series. It's another match-up that isn't great but might be unavoidable. Pitcher (bum): A fine trio of bums tonight, headlined by Chris Volstad at Coors, followed by Tyler Cloyd against the Nationals, and anchored by Jacob Turner against the Braves. Hitter (power): It doesn't get too much better than Tyler Colvin against Volstad. At least not on the waiver wire. Jonny Gomes will face Matt Harrison. Hitter (speed): Rajai Davis will look to slap some hits against a hot and cold Ivan Nova and a sketchy Yankees infield defense. Once on base, the fun begins. Tomorrow's grindPitcher (to start): Usually, this is the time of year where you can find some unusual match-ups and interesting pitchers to role the dice on. Not so much this year. Homer Bailey is kind of a rich man's version of Clayton Richard (which did not work out yesterday) in that he's fairly stable start to start and doesn't offer much in a fantasy sense. Being a Red with some strikeout ability, he's more likely to win games and accrue some strikeouts. Tomorrow, he'll face the Pirates. A.J. Griffin has been quite good this season. He really came out of nowhere for me and I haven't had an opportunity to scout him at all. I don't know what to expect going forward, but given his results to date and his match-up against the Mariners, I'm going to use him. Pitcher (bum): The Red Sox have had a terrible season. That Aaron Cook will be starting his 18th game is probably a good example as to why that might have happened. He'll face the Orioles and the dread hurler TBA. The Royals Will Smith is not very good, but neither is the Indians' offense. Across the diamond, David Huff is not very good, but neither is the Royals offense. Who will break first? Hitter (power): Try Salvador Perez against Huff. Raul Ibanez is back in play against Chad Jenkins. Jenkins most certainly does not have "The Face." Dust off Delmon Young for a game against Scott Diamond. You could also try the usual assortment of A's hitters like Seth Smith and Brandon Moss Hitter (speed): Will Venable and Ben Revere are fair bets to attempt a steal or two between them. Reliever watchFrank Francisco is out for the season. I assume that means Bobby Parnell is back in action. Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:39am (4) Comments Friday, September 28, 2012The daily grind: 9-28The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo! The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Today's grindThe Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are: Pitcher (to start): There are a couple options to throw against the wall today. The Orioles have decided to go with Chris Tillman rather than TBA, which means Tillman gets to face the Red Sox. Homer Bailey is a non-terrible pitcher facing a non-excellent lineup. I know that's a thrilling recommendation. A.J. Griffin is the guy I'm excited about, but as I mentioned yesterday, I have no real cause to feel that way. I'm recommending him purely on numbers. Pitcher (bum): Another reason to like Tillman is that he'll be working opposite Aaron Cook. The Orioles should throw a couple crooked numbers before the fifth inning is completed. On a typical day, Will Smith and David Huff would be easy to point out as bums. But since the Indians and Royals feature uninspiring lineups, it might not work out as planned. Hitter (power): There are several good platoon match-ups to exploit today. Salvador Perez against Huff is a good place to start, since most owners have plenty of catcher games leftover. If you want outfielders, Raul Ibanez, Delmon Young, Seth Smith and Brandon Moss are waiting. Hitter (speed): Will Venable and Ben Revere have the best match-ups from the speed contingent. Tomorrow's grindPitcher (to start): This is the day you have been waiting for to exploit Yahoo's innings limit. I hope you are ready. Andy Pettitte faces the Blue Jays. Ervin Santana has been very hot recently. A match-up with the Rangers is worrisome, but he won't kill you if you lump him in with five others. Dan Straily will be starring down a Mariners lineup that might be spending more effort on travel plans than baseball by now. Steve Johnson will pitch against the Red Sox. He has a 0.00 ERA in his last 16.1 innings. Royals prospect Jake Odorizzi will spin his second start. The Indians oppose. Marco Estrada burned us recently, but he faces the Astros. Eric Stults has pitched very well, especially in Petco, despite being Eric Stults. Trevor Cahill and Mike Minor are slightly over 50 percent owned, but they have strong match-ups and I've seen them floating around. Pitcher (bum): With all those names above, there are still a couple bums. Ricky Romero has the misfortune of closing his season against the Yankees. P.J. Walters might have it worse. He has to survive a potent, desperate Tigers offense AND he's opposed by Justin Verlander. Justin Germano is a journeyman minor leaguer and it shows in his stat line. Hitter (power): It's another Andruw Jones day. His running mate on tomorrow's ticket is Jonny Gomes. There's a pretty good chance the Diamondbacks will start Adam Eaton against Germano. Hitter (speed): Carlos Gomez has the platoon advantage, which morphs him from a decent player to a five category contributor. Rajai Davis will face Pettitte. Reliever watchFormer friend of the column, Todd Frazier, returned a John Axford fastball to the bleachers yesterday. Axford had been cruising along until this blown save. It's late enough in the season that this is a curiosity rather than actionable information. | ||||