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May 18, 2013
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![]() Monday, October 01, 2012The daily grind: 10-1The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo! The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Today's grindThe Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are: Pitcher (to start): It's thin today. Too thin. Alex Cobb and Wei-Yin Chin face off today in a heated battle of tolerable waiver starter. Jarrod Parker would be a better option if he weren't burdened with defeating the Rangers. Pitcher (bum): The Tigers will deliver the coup de grace to the White Sox if they can defeat Bruce Chen and the Royals tonight. The Nationals are in a similar position, although their victory will merely ensure that the Braves host the Wild Card game. The Nationals and Reds are currently tied for the best record in the National League, so the Nats have plenty of incentive to finish hot. They'll try their hands against Kyle Kendrick tonight. The White Sox are praying to stay alive and correct their season-killing slump. Corey Kluber and the Indians are likely to cooperate, but they need to sweep and see the Tigers swept in turn. Hitter (power): Darin Ruf, the minor league home run king, has an everyday job for the remainder of the season. I don't think a right-handed power hitter could ask for a better match-up than John Lannan. Delmon Young's become popular around these parts. I recently recommended him in a start against Chen and I see no reason not to repeat it. Jonny Gomes and Martin Perez will meet to discuss philosophy and whether Perez will allow Gomes to hit a ball 400 feet. Hitter (speed): Will Venable wants to finish the season on a high note. I know his motivations. Carlos Gomez has the platoon advantage against Clayton Richard, and good things happen when Gomez has the upper hand. Tomorrow's grindPitcher (to start): Carlos Villanueva has had a solid season, despite that I've rarely if ever recommended in his favor. If you need the innings, his match-up against the Twins is tolerable. Jacob Turner has pitched well of late. I'm extremely skeptical, but I also haven't seen these outings, so maybe he has turned a corner. In any case, good recent performance plus a Mets match-up plus the end of the season equals a playable pickup. There are others I want to recommend, but they're just not good picks for tomorrow. Pitcher (bum): Chris Volstad keeps facing crappy teams, which might be the difference between his current high sixes ERA and an ERA over eight. He's having some kind of horrible season, but the Cubs have stuck with him. I wanted to recommend in favor of Patrick Corbin, but young pitchers sometimes crumble at the end of the season. He's looked quite bad in his last few outings. Hitter (power): Tomorrow will quite possibly be a tune-up outing for Gio Gonzalez, which makes me more comfortable recommending Ruf again. Andruw Jones gets one last crack at Jon Lester this year. Hitter (speed): Adam Eaton can do a little bit of everything. Jhoulys Chacin on a low pitch count is a fine match-up to do that. Norichika Aoki is fighting for a starting role next year. The battle is likely out of his hands, but that shouldn't stop him from trying. Reliever watchWhat, you think relievers can save you now? Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:59am (4) Comments Tuesday, October 02, 2012The daily grind: 10-2The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo! The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Today's grindThe Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are: Pitcher (to start): There have been some changes between yesterday and today. If you're looking for pitchers today, that tells me you have no choice. That's unfortunate, because today's pitchers are bad. Jacob Turner is somehow the top recommendation of the day. It wasn't very long ago when I considered him the top bum of the day. And frankly, my opinion of him has barely changed. David Phelps has been bumped to the rotation in place of Ivan Nova. I'm unsure how stretched out he is, so don't be caught off guard by an early exit. Miguel Gonzalez and the Orioles are still fighting to win a division. The Rays were only recently eliminated, so they might be running some experiments today. Pitcher (bum): Chris Volstad remains in no danger of promotion to the "Start" list. Against the Astros, his downside is somewhat limited. I'm not confident that Patrick Corbin will finish strong after several consecutive clunkers. Phillies starter Tyler Cloyd has a sore arm, so we'll be seeing a bullpen game. B.J. Rosenberg will kick off the festivities. Hitter (power): Gio Gonzalez is playing for a Cy Young, but to the Nationals, tonight's game does not matter. Gonzalez is a tough pitcher to face for any rookie, but given the undercurrents, I'm comfortable trying Darin Ruf. Andruw Jones and Jon Lester will have another rematch. Hitter (speed): The Brewers are eliminated, but Norichika Aoki could still snag a bag. Tomorrow's grindPitcher (to start): A.J. Griffin has been friendly to his owners this year. This could be the biggest game of the season for the A's, or it could be a rest day. If the A's lose tonight, expect to see the backups out there tomorrow. Homer Bailey is coming off a no-hitter, so he deserves an honorable mention here. But I don't actually like him for tomorrow. It's a tune-up outing against the Cardinals. Pitcher (bum): Jeremy Hefner recently rewarded me with a terrible outing, so I'm going to hitch my wagon and try again. Daisuke Matsuzaka has immolation down to a science. The Yankees might still need to win tomorrow's game if the Orioles win today. Hitter (power): Raul Ibanez will try to hook a couple cheap ones against Matsuzaka. Edwin Jackson will be getting ready for his postseason run, so try Domonic Brown. Hitter (speed): More platoon advantage for Carlos Gomez. It's been a good year for a favorite son of this column. Rajai Davis also has the platoon advantage, although that matters less. Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:45am (5) Comments Wednesday, October 03, 2012The daily grind: 10-3And so we come to the last day. For those of you still alive and in a same day moves league, let's use the comments to discuss what you need today. Here is a list of today's probable pitchers courtesy of MLB.com. Unsurprisingly, a lot of unusual names are on the list today. I'm most intrigued by Shelby Miller, who used to be a super prospect before supposed disciplinary issues soured scouts on him. Today, three games "count." The Rangers and Athletics will enter pitched battle with the winner taking the AL West and the loser falling to the Wild Card play-in. A.J. Griffin and Ryan Dempster are scheduled to start. The winner of the game will have 94 wins and the loser 93 wins. The Yankees need to win to prevent the Orioles from tying them with 94 wins. They have an easy assignment with Hiroki Kuroda facing Daisuke Matsuzaka and the Red Sox. Winning tonight also guarantees the top seed to the Yankees. The Orioles have a tougher task. Behind Chris Tillman, they need to beat Jeremy Hellickson and hope for a Yankees loss. The good news for all involved is that they are clinched for the playoffs, which isn't a bad consolation prize for a loss. Some hitters for today include Darin Ruf and Domonic Brown against Edwin Jackson, Raul Ibanez versus Matsuzaka, and speedsters Carlos Gomez and Rajai Davis. It's been a fun season. Good luck today. Cheers, Brad Johnson Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:56am (2) Comments Tuesday, October 09, 2012The Verdict: and the winner is…Over the past few years, the Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment has been presented with a myriad of cases that range from mundane trade disputes to contentious allegations of collusion. While they all have some affect on the league overall, very rarely do they affect the actual outcome of the league in terms of who wins the championship. However, we recently received a case where the Court’s decision would have directly decided the winner of a fantasy baseball league. The issue presented before the Court involved a 12-team rotisserie keeper league with a dispute over the statistics accumulated and tabulated at the conclusion of the MLB regular season on Wednesday night, October 3, 2012. It should be noted up front that all teams involved in this issue closely watched all of that day’s games and statistics that were accumulated. On October 3, 2012, C-Train hit two homeruns giving him a total of 195 which yielded eight (8) points for that category. This fell one homerun short of 196 which would have tied him with the Road Runners who hit one homerun on October 3. At the conclusion of games on October 3, C-Train and the Knights ended up tied for first place with 98 points. This meant the league’s tie-breaker system would be applied putting the two teams head to head in each of the ten scoring categories. The Knights won five of the categories, C-Train won four of the categories, and they were tied in the final category. As a result, the tie-breaker went to the Knights to win the championship. However, at some point after 2:00 AM on October 4, 2012, C-Train was awarded an additional home run which gave him a total of 196 and awarded him a tie in that category. As a result, he was given another .5 points which gave him the championship. By all accounts, C-Train’s team did not hit three home runs on the final day as the games, statistics and players were all monitored extensively by all members of the league. Even C-Train admitted that he had no idea where the additional home run came from. When the league commissioner and other members tried investigating, they understandably could not come up with an accurate snapshot of each team and its statistics for the days prior which could have accounted for a retroactive stat adjustment. The commissioner did in fact reach out to CBSSports.com’s help and support which did not lead to any concrete determination. So on October 4, 2012, the final overall standings now read that C-Train finished in sole possession of first place with 98.5 points and the Knights finished in second place with 98 points. In trying to discern how this could have happened, the league commissioner provided me with some possible scenarios. They are as follows: 1. It was a statistical error that lasted all season long and was ultimately corrected after the season concluded. However, without sensitive data from CBS, it would be all but impossible to determine whether that player was on C-Train’s team at the time the homerun was allegedly hit. Another important fact provided by the league commissioner was that multiple league members had commissioner access at various points of the season due to work travel, weddings and honeymoons. The commissioner does not believe that anyone manipulated the system, but he could not rule it out. He had no evidence or reason to suspect anyone did this, so normally the Court would not make such presumptions. As stated previously, there was corroborating testimony from other members of the league, including C-Train, regarding the overall surprise and lack of understanding about how he was awarded with an additional homerun after the season ended. I was asked to determine how this should play out and who should be awarded the championship. Because this was such a sensitive issue with literally everything on the line, I had several conversations with the commissioner about this issue and gave him an idea of where I was leaning. I wanted to give the league members every opportunity to figure this out for themselves because of what was at stake. Before I began writing the decision on this case, the commissioner contacted me and informed me that the league collectively came to an agreement on how to handle the situation. The two teams that were vying for the championship also have been friends nearly 30 years and were able to reach a "gentlemen’s agreement." They agreed to be co-champions of the most competitive, best year in their league’s long history. They also agreed to pool the prizes for first and second place and split it 50/50, as well as agreeing to split the league’s lunch tradition (the league champion always buys lunch at the next year’s draft day). I created Fantasy Judgment to help leagues resolve conflicts just like this. However, it is always best when people can compromise and work things out on their own just like this league did. For the record, I would have ruled that without concrete proof or a likely inference that the statistics were fraudulently manipulated, the final standings as distributed by CBS on October 4, 2012 should be honored. I understand that people saw the way the statistics were tracked the night before, but scores, points and statistics do tend to get updated and finalized overnight in between scoring periods. There simply wasn’t enough evidence to disregard CBS’s standings. In the end, the league amicably came to a resolution that worked for them. Justice was served. Posted by Michael Stein at 4:19am (3) Comments Wednesday, October 10, 2012Chatting with the mixed Tout Wars champThis year, Cory Schwartz took down the mixed Tout Wars championship. In addition to this new title, Cory is a multiple-time NFBC main event winner, an on-air fantasy expert for MLB Network and vice president of the Statistics Department at MLB Advanced Media. He’s also a friend of mine and all-around nice guy. While he's fresh off a record-setting point total in the 15-team mixed Tout Wars league, I decided to pick his brain a bit about strategy… but first he had to wash the Yoohoo out of his ears. You can follow Cory on Twitter at @schwartzstops Do you approach drafts/auctions with a predetermined plan or budget split for pitching/hitting, or do you just follow the value and build as you go? I prioritize offense first, bullpen second and starting pitching last in all leagues, with the exact distribution of dollars and draft picks determined by the league format. In a 15-team mixed league like Tout Wars I usually maintain a relatively typical 70/30 split during auctions, but the distribution of that 30 is somewhat atypical compared to other clubs. My split at Tout Wars this year was 71/29, with the $79 I spent on pitching only a dollar less than the league average, but only Eric Mack spent as much on his bullpen as my $39, and no one spent more on relievers than we did. Meanwhile, only Seth Trachtman spent less on starting pitching than I did, underspending me by one dollar, $40 to $39. Starting pitchers are the most volatile and unreliable category of players, and there's a great depth to choose from in deep, mixed leagues, so it's unnecessary to spend heavily to acquire them. Constructing an effective team requires balancing stability and risk; how do you manage risk when building a team? John Benson, one of the pioneers of using analytics in fantasy baseball, taught me that "strength loves certainty, but weakness loves risk." As a result, I try to look for reasonably predictable offensive picks, with balanced category value and some upside, while I spend more aggressively and take on more risk in my starting pitching. My top seven most expensive offensive purchases all returned full value or close to it, as even relative disappointments like Ian Kinsler ($31), Asdrubal Cabrera ($18) and Jesus Montero ($14) provided decent value for their positions. Eric Hosmer ($26) was a bigger disappointment, but even he produced double-digit homers and steals, so Brennan Boesch ($12) was clearly my most expensive flop, and none of my other offensive disappointments cost more than $4. On the other hand, the discounted upside picks of Edwin Encarnacion ($9) and Chase Headley ($1) paid huge profits, while the reserve selection of Garrett Jones more than made up for the miss on Boesch and low-cost fliers Alex Presley ($4) and Chris Heisey ($1). Spending less on starting pitching prompted me to take more risks to find value, and for the most part they all paid off in terms in terms of performance, if not health. Brandon Morrow ($13), Jordan Zimmermann ($9), Brandon McCarthy ($7) and Johan Santana ($3) formed the core of my auction-bought rotation, along with the less-risky but still high-upside Max Scherzer ($12), while I earned considerable profit on the risky upside picks of Homer Bailey and Bartolo Colon during the reserve round.
What do you think are some of the most common misconceptions about team building/player evaluation that lead to draft day mistakes? Overspending on any one player is always a risk, particularly a starting pitcher, because it limits flexibility during the auction and leaves too big a hole in a team's production if the that player is injured or underproduces. Of the top 10 most expensive hitters purchased in Tout Wars this year, only Miguel Cabrera ($41) and Ryan Braun ($40) came close to earning full value, while Carlos Gonzalez ($40), Robinson Cano ($39) and Hanley Ramirez ($39) produced solid seasons but none provided full value. However, Albert Pujols ($43), Matt Kemp ($40), Justin Upton ($40), Adrian Gonzalez ($40) and Joey Votto ($39) all incurred considerable losses on their owners. The picture was similarly grim for starters, as Roy Halladay ($26), Cliff Lee ($26), Tim Lincecum ($22), C.J. Wilson ($20) and Dan Haren ($19) were high-priced sinkholes at a position where depth and bargains are plentiful. To me, it seems that corner infielder positions have lost depth over the past few years; have you perceived any recent shifts in positional value? And, do you anticipate anything similar going forward? I think that's purely perception, as offensive depth at the infield corners is typically greater than any other position because that's where MLB teams look for offense first. A run of injuries among third base-eligible players (particularly Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie, Ryan Zimmerman, Pablo Sandoval and Alex Rodriguez) could fuel that perception, but certainly the talent is there. I was confident enough in corner infield talent this year that I spent somewhat aggressively on it on draft day (Hosmer $26, Paul Goldschmidt $18 and Encarnacion $9), and used my utility spot on a corner infielder (Headley $1), too. Those four were all key players in my offense this season. What is your favorite league format and why? Draft vs auction. Mixed vs AL- or NL-only, head to head vs. Roto? I like mixed leagues over unmixed simply because I enjoy having the opportunity to pick players from both leagues rather than being forced to choose from a limited player pool. I'm indifferent on the question of draft vs. auction, as both have their pros and cons and unique appeals, but I definitely prefer roto formats to head-to-head. In my opinion, the team that proves itself the strongest over the entire 26-week season, should win. | ||||||