May 19, 2013
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Wednesday, March 06, 2013
As we all know, the Houston Astros are now members of the American League West after spending their first 50 years in the National League. Houston transitions to the AL to create two 15-team leagues with three divisions of five teams each. They are the first franchise to switch leagues since the Milwaukee Brewers moved to the National League over 15 years ago.
Despite the Astros being one of the worst teams in baseball and having a limited number of relevant fantasy baseball options, their move will have an impact on fantasy leagues.
Because there are two 15-team leagues, there now must be interleague games every day of the season. This means that each team will play 20 more interleague games throughout the season, not just during two specific periods, as we have been accustomed to since 1997. This will have a profound impact on fantasy teams that rely on designated hitters who will potentially lose at-bats due to more games being played in National League parks.
In addition, NL Central pitchers will not get the benefit of facing the Astros, a poor team destined for more than 100 losses, several times during the year. On the other hand, AL West pitchers now reap the benefits of having Houston in their division.
There's an even more important issue in fantasy leagues arising from Houston's move to the AL. This has a direct impact on AL or NL-only leagues. NL-only leagues now lose an entire team's worth of players and minor leaguers. Granted, second baseman Jose Altuve is probably the only Astro worth drafting in many formats. But plenty of deeper leagues would necessitate going further into the Astros' organization for fantasy help, including players such as Bud Norris, Carlos Pena, Justin Maxwell, Jose Veras, Lucas Harrell, Brett Wallace, Fernando Martinez, or Jason Castro. Now these players are off-limits to NL-only leagues and all of a sudden available for AL-only leagues.
Taking this a step further, AL or NL-only keeper leagues have a dilemma on their hands. If a team in an NL-only keeper league had Altuve, chances are he would be kept since the pool for second baseman is relatively thin. Now that team will lose its second baseman because the Astros are in the American League. Fantasy commissioners need to come up with a plan to handle the transition. While we have known about this for quite some time, we cannot expect all fantasy league commissioners to have implemented a process for dealing with this situation. Now is the time to act before drafts take place.
One option is to offer a one-year extension or grace period where NL-only teams can better prepare for losing a player such as Altuve, or even minor leaguers in dynasty leagues. This would allow everyone an opportunity to set themselves up for the future without being unduly prejudiced because of the move by maintaining ownership of Astro players knowing they will be lost at the end of the 2013 season. Or you could set up some sort of arrangement that would allow trades with other AL-only teams to even things out.
There is more than one way to handle this unique situation, and they are all equally meritorious. But whichever one is selected, fantasy league commissioners need to have the answers immediately. All league members should know how to proceed if the Houston transition directly affects their league. As long as the commissioner is specific, expeditious and rational in his decision-making, then the league can smoothly handle any questions or issues that may arise.
Posted by Michael Stein at 3:04am
(8) Comments
Friday, March 08, 2013
Identifying and leveraging easy-to-manage platoons can be a fantasy boon. It typically is not a good idea to plan a draft around such platoons, but knowing they are available can help if you find yourself with a hole in the late rounds of your draft.
Effective third base platoons are somewhat rare, so this tandem will really help savvy owners who run into trouble at the hot corner.
Francisco will see the strong side of the platoon. In 2012, he had the second highest swinging strike rate (16.9 perecent) among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances. That led to the fourth highest strikeout rate (34.1 percent). On the positive side, he has excellent raw power and will hit his share of long balls. He's best matched up against contact-oriented pitchers.
Johnson will see the lefties and his performance is a bit more predictable than Francisco's. The offensive skill set is fairly similar, but with less power and fewer whiffs. Like with Francisco, he matches up best against contact-oriented or low-quality pitchers.
Hairston is the prize here, but since his predictable starts will come against left-handed pitchers, his fantasy value suffers. The only true shortcoming in his game (at least against LHP) is a low walk rate. Still, he'll hit for power, post a usable average, and provide some counting stats.
Scheirholtz is less exciting. He's a typical grinder who will put the ball in play and occasionally surprise you with a home run or a stolen base. He's useful as a fantasy spot starter, but probably won't be a frequent target like Hairston.
Brandon Moss and Seth Smith, Athletics first base and designated hitter
Moss and Smith won't be forming a platoon together, but they will likely be platooned. Both are valuable assets against right-handed pitching.
Smith tends to post predictably average production against RHP. He'll bash a few home runs, reach base at an acceptable rate, and post a tolerable average. He's provided some stolen bases in the past but shouldn't be counted on in that regard.
Moss is harder to predict after breaking out in 2012. He posted career bests in isolated power and balls in play average while showing strikeout problems similar to Francisco (above). It's possible the power could hold up in a platoon role, which should mean similar production to Smith but with more home runs and a lower on-base percentage.
Venable is a consistently above-average hitter against right-handed pitching. While most of the names on this list are here for power numbers, Venable's contribution is to reach base at an average rate, swipe a couple dozen bags, and chip in with the occasional home run. It feels like he's been a deep sleeper forever, but now that he's entering his age 30 season, it may be time to stop imagining upside.
Denorfia is the kind of fourth outfielder most teams wish they had. For fantasy purposes, he has enough power and speed to be interesting at the plate and on the bases. He can also take his share of walks without posting a high strikeout rate. The result is a kind of "anything-can-happen" player. His stat line won't be sexy at the end of the season, but if you're looking for a guy who might hit a home run or steal a base on a given day, he's not a bad pick.
In leagues that count center field as a separate position (two-thirds of mine do), this tandem could prove helpful.
As the only prospect on this list, Martin has some upside appeal that the others lack. He has good raw power and useful speed, but reports on his game emphasize the rawness of his baseball skills. He's also credited as being a baseball rat, which is a scout's way of saying that he thinks Martin's skills will eventually play up. In 2012, he's more likely to steal you a base than hit a home run. Use him against right-handed pitching.
Gentry isn't anything to get excited about. His best contribution is a solid batting average and he'll also steal the occasional base. He shouldn't be your first pick if you need a spot starter, but there will be plenty of thin Monday and Thursdays where you may have need of his services.
Tune in next time when I cover potential breakouts.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 3:26am
(11) Comments
Monday, March 11, 2013
| | A guy who'll love Chase Field after O.co |
Seven hypotheticals
- Cliff Pennington may hit .220.
-Cliff Pennington may lose his job as Arizona's shortstop to young Didi Gregorius within a month.
-Cliff Pennington may injure his left shoulder in a freak accident.
-Cliff Pennington may steal 20 bases.
-Cliff Pennington may field the ball at a superb level again this year.
-Cliff Pennington may even reach double-digit home runs in wet, humid Chase Field.
-Cliff Pennington may be the 29th most valuable shortstop in 2013.
Seven expansions upon seven above hypotheticals
-Cliff Pennington is a lifetime .249 hitter: one who faced some miserable luck last year while hitting under .220, but also one who stopped making the considerable contact he’d been used to.
-Cliff Pennington is not the shortstop of the Diamondbacks’ future, the title of which belongs to a young Didi Gregorius (6-foot-1/185), a minor-league level hitter at current state with a Gold Glove-worthy leather to flash; young Didi, for now, is bothered by an elbow injury, which could linger.
-Cliff Pennington probably won’t injure his left shoulder in a freak accident, and his generally solid health actually might tip the job competition in his favor.
-Cliff Pennington was on a 20-steal pace last year but played only 125 games, after averaging roughly 152 the previous two seasons.
-Cliff Pennington can flirt with league-average production with the stick—and would certainly appear to be a better hitter than Gregorius—but is generally regarded as a slick fielder; if he can have another plus year on the dirt, he may stick around enough to tally some golden counting stats.
-Cliff Pennington’s aforementioned golden potential previously has been limited to his speed, and speed alone. With a move to Chase Field, he has the chance to tap into his modest power (6.67 homers per year over his last three years) and push his longball total to double digits.
-Cliff Pennington is being drafted as the 29th shortstop, per Mock Draft Central, but with any semblance of playing time, he’ll best that slot; so if you have a patchy middle infield, take a flier on Pennington with the last pick of your draft.
Posted by Nick Fleder at 3:12am
(0) Comments
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
These players appear primed for a platoon role or should otherwise feature low ownership rates to start the season.
Smoak qualifies as a classic post-hype sleeper. He may also qualify as a classic case of wish-casting. He's potentially capable of adding substantial gains to his power numbers and batting average.
It's very dangerous to put much weight on one month of performance, but in this case, a strong September plus a very impressive spring training are encouraging. After struggling throughout the entire 2012 season, Smoak turned the corner in September by posting a 1.005 OPS for the month. He had 13 walks and 13 strikeouts. His .239 ISO was consistent with his minor league numbers. His BABIP was elevated at .357, but that's only one or two hits on the lucky side for such a small sample.
His spring numbers are silly, but he's been here before, so be ready to deploy your grains of salt. Through 23 plate appearances, he has nine hits, two home runs, two walks, and four strikeouts—good for a 1.335 OPS. Research suggests that .250 point increases in spring OPS can predict breakouts.
And now for the salt. Last season, his spring OPS was .966 over twice as many plate appearances, and that campaign went quite poorly.
He's also credited with implementing mechanical changes late last season—which makes the breakout narrative more compelling (if not more probable). He'll need to dodge competition from Michael Morse, Kendrys Morales, Raul Ibanez and Jason Bay for playing time, but so far he has the inside track on a regular role.
Belt has settled in as a reliable fantasy role player. In 2012, he was slightly below average in all five standard categories and provided some utility with his first base and outfield eligibility. He's potentially capable of doubling his home runs per plate appearance while seeing more playing time.
The good news is that projection systems uniformly believe he will hit more home runs in 2013. That jibes with his prospect billing as a patient, mid-quality power bat. Strangely, he cut his strikeout rate in 2012 while actually whiffing more frequently. He needs a strikeout rate around 20 percent to post an acceptable average.
It's easy to be skeptical about a power breakout from Belt. Mechanics play such a large role in generating power and loft. Belt has received criticism for swing mechanics that limit his ability to produce that power and loft. Batted ball data from 2012 supports that hypothesis (small sample alert). He posted an excellent 25.6 percent line drive rate, but his home run per fly ball rate was only 6.2 percent. Parsed to standard English, he hit the ball hard with frequency but not in a way that produces home runs.
Between first base and left field, he should play almost daily. For what it's worth, his spring OPS is currently 1.393.
Brown was briefly the top prospect in baseball a few years ago, but now he's forgotten by everyone outside of Philadelphia. Health has played a large role in his shaky performance to date, but he appears to finally be healthy. He has the potential to break out across all five categories.
He's the proverbial tool shed, with speed, power, and hand-eye coordination in spades. Inconsistent mechanics caused by minor injuries to both knees, a broken hamate bone, and other leg related problems have prevented those tools from playing in-game. A strong spring performance (1.280 OPS, six walks, five strikeouts in 36 plate appearances) and good health have him in line for a starting job.
The downside is clear but also isn't devastating. If major league pitchers are able to continue exploiting his mechanics, he'll hover around a league average bat. That would put him in a position where he's most useful against lesser quality right-handed pitchers.
Donaldson was probably more interesting last season, when he had catcher eligibility and a second half hot streak that brought him into fantasy relevance. Those second half numbers have fantasy watchers naming him a cheap sleeper for average third base production.
That could be a boon for those who missed out on quality third baseman this season. A sampling of four projection systems on Fangraphs all expect an OPS between .734 and .738 (it's worth noting that ZiPS diverges from popular opinion with a .680 projection). If he manages to start most games, double digit power numbers and a handful of steals are likely.
Conspiring against him are some poor spring numbers—two singles in 27 plate appearances—and the Athletics' very deep roster of infielders. Continued struggles in spring training or any in-season slump will likely result in reduced and difficult-to-predict playing time.
Cain is an excellent post-hype sleeper. In 2012, he was viewed as a potential five-category contributor and was heavily targeted in high-quality leagues. A variety of injuries and middling performance have calmed expectations, although he is still owned in 52 percent of Yahoo leagues.
His spring training has been slowed by a hand injury in February, but he seems to be performing well in a small sample —412/.565/.529 in 23 plate appearances with six walks and zero strikeouts. Projection systems expect league-average production with double digit contributions to home runs and stolen bases. For fantasy, he appears to be an excellent fourth outfielder or a valuable low cost center fielder.
Unlike with those above, there's little to worry about with Cain. His combination of athleticism and polished baseball skills should result in predictably acceptable performance.
Reimold was on fire in early 2012 before neck surgery forced him to miss the majority of the season. Health has been the bane of Reimold's career as he's missed substantial time for that neck injury as well as an Achilles tear. When he's on the field, he shows an advanced approach at the plate that generates double digit home runs with the occasional steal.
His role in 2013 is uncertain. It appears he is a logical candidate to platoon with Nate McLouth. However, since Wilson Betemit appears to be the primary designated hitter, Reimold could earn a full time role split between the two positions.
If he can stay away from major injuries, he should be a useful plug-and-play option with upside for more value.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 2:43am
(5) Comments
Last year, I gave you five endgame options that might have—depending on your league structure—cost you a buck. Three of them panned out: Jose Altuve was about the only sight to behold on the Astros; Mike Minor cemented himself in the long-term plans of the Braves with a stellar season; and Mike Aviles flaunted his underrated power-speed combination for the cost of a McDouble. Two of them panned: John Mayberry was a tease that wouldn’t stop teasing, and Mat Gamel blew out his knee. I’ll go five for five this year.
 | | Less swinging and missing this year. (Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports/US Presswire) |
with Cliff Pennington. And the second “future steal of your draft” is none other than Justin Smoak.
Remember when Justin Smoak was traded for Cliff Lee? Yes, this actually happened.
Remember that time Justin Smoak hit .240 in the majors? I sure don’t!
Remember Justin Smoak ‘s final line last year? Ryan Howard could do better with one Achilles.
If Justin Smoak is to you a running joke, I must ask you to reconsider. I understand his track record is far from shiny—three years has gone so fast, and he’s proven himself to be a 20-homer, batting average sucking black hole at one of the deepest positions in the fantasy sphere. But if you slept through last September, I’m finally waking you up. Justin Smoak’s a changed man; a hitting machine; an artist at the plate; and a bell-ringer in the spring.
Perhaps this is a foolhardy analysis, but my theory is that Justin Smoak learned patience in the fall of last year. His swing percentage outside the zone (23.4 percent) was more than three percent below his career average; he also struck out at roughly half (11.5 percent) his career rate in September. What might have caused this? Your guess is as good as mine…if your guess is “demotion.”
I don’t know what changed him in Tacoma—it doesn’t exactly scream “life-altering vacation”—but I know he was walking like a madman on the farm, and upon return, was indeed a more patient fellow at the plate. He smashed five homers in a month, hit like Willie Mays, and even decided to act like a plus fielder for a brief period.
Chalk him up for 20 or 25 home runs this year, and forget the crowd of powerful bats taking Safeco this year: Michael Morse, Kendrys Morales, Jesus Montero, and Young Justin can all reasonably fit on the field, smashing long balls, smashing away.
Posted by Nick Fleder at 3:05am
(1) Comments
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
estrada (n.) An otherworldly master of finesse. That dude in the Brewers uniform, the one who struck out nine while walking only a deuce: he’s a real estrada.
Ladies and gentlemen,
I once thought I knew what pitching was. Yet, I was toiling around the lower levels of the farm system like a pigeon away from his flock; alone, lost, untrusting in my stuff. I polished, and polished, but soon found myself to enjoy only the ugly Washington days where I once expected glory; with empty seats and empty promises and bloated ratios consuming my day-to-day.
I needed a change—they barely used me, barely wanted me, not trusting that I could control my fastball, concerned that I was addicted to the thrill of the strikeout.
So I went to the only logical place on Earth: Milwaukee. No empty seats, plenty of beer, and a fresh start. I thought I was ready, but once again I faced the harsh realities of suck. Another year shared between Triple-A and the major leagues, another year devoid of control. I thought I was done.
I decided to try anything and everything. I tweaked my release points, letting it go at a higher vertical point for all pitches. I stopped fooling around with a three-pitch repertoire. Welcome, cutter. Welcome, sinker. Hello fame and fortune. Hello, Kate Upton. My strikeout to walk ratio spiked, and those fools from Milwaukee even gave me seven games to start.
I speak with you today on the cusp of the 2013 season. I really killed it last year—one of the five best strikeout-to-walk ratios in the entire league. I really believe I can do it again—I wasn’t just getting lucky last year, wasn’t just “stranding runners” or “having balls fall my way” or “getting an absurd amount of swinging strikes” or any of that pizzazz.
Okay, maybe I won’t strike out more than a guy an inning again, but I certainly deserve to be drafted ahead of that freak Fiers I call my teammate. I promise I won’t let you down. I promise you I’ve become an estrada, like I always knew I could. And if you can get me for a dollar... hell, I'll make it worth your while.
-Marco Estrada, Hilton Milwaukee River Hotel, circa March 2013
Posted by Nick Fleder at 3:09am
(2) Comments
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
There are a number of strategies regarding how to spend your money in a fantasy auction. Some like to spend heavily on high-end players, some prefer to spread the wealth and focus on acquiring a core of $20-ish players. For some, reserving enough money to be king of the dollar days is integral.
Whatever your strategy, the common goal is to have control of who winds up on your roster. Therefore, one of the drivers of your budget allocation strategy should be to put your money where your opinions are. If you have strong preferences among the high-priced players, spend early and freely to get your choice. But if you prefer to have your pick of sleepers and later-round players, make sure you save enough money to do so.
One of the trappings of the barstool fantasy chatter is that you may feel as if you have to have very strong opinions on every player, and particularly on the marquee players. I reject this notion. Counter-intuitively, one of the hallmarks of a well-studied owner is that some decisions don’t matter as much as others. It’s okay to decide you want a top-tier first baseman, but not have super strong preferences among them.
In an auction league, you have to back your opinion with dollars, and each dollar you put up to acquire your choice of player should represent your relative strength of opinion in favor of that player versus a counterpart. Keeping this in mind helps elucidate the value of ranking players in tiers or grouping similar types of players.
For example, while I see both Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Gonzalez individually, I also see them similarly as cornerstone outfield assets. In an auction setting, if you were to ask me which one I like better, my answer would probably be "whichever one I can get cheaper.” I’d rather have the $4 (or whatever) between their costs than have my pick of the two.
The reason why I often decide “I’d rather have the money” is that the leverage of each extra dollar you hold increases as the overall pot of money in owners’ hands dwindles (provided you don’t wildly mismanage your funds). So, the dollar you save by making the frugal choice among the elite players can give you substantial control over the player pool in the middle and later rounds. If Cutch and Cargo have seasons as expected, having one as opposed to the other is unlikely to be the reason you win, but correctly identifying a $2 breakout star turns exponential profits.
All things equal, I usually prefer to have the extra dollar to pay $2 for my sleeper than the choice between two similar elite options I both like.
This is not to say that the examples I used in this post represent the only, or the absolute correct, way to allocate your funds. You may have a very strong opinion on some of the highest ranked players, or even a strong opinion between two seemingly similar players. If that’s the case, vote with your dollars. I simply want to reiterate that sometimes the decisions made between high-end players have actually the least impact overall. If you can avoid losing your league on your three most expensive players, you’ll be in a position to contend.
When studying the player pool, make note of your strongest opinions. Consider whether they cluster among high-end, mid-tier, or low-price players. From there, make sure you use your “discretionary” dollars in the areas of the auction where your opinions are strongest, not simply where the prices are highest.
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 3:01am
(3) Comments
Thursday, March 21, 2013
In wine and craft beer, blind tastings are the true measure of the quality of the product. Brand names stripped aside, judging only on merit, a raw analysis of the object can be a liberating experiencing in valuation. So let's take a step back for a moment, dial up the projector with some numbers, and ask why this player is essentially a fourth-round pick right now.
Name |
ADP |
PA |
AVG |
HR |
SB |
R |
RBI |
R+RBI |
|---|
Player A |
35 |
597 |
0.270 |
22 |
18 |
98 |
59 |
157 |
Player B |
23 |
628 |
0.280 |
17 |
18 |
107 |
67 |
174 |
Player C |
8 |
701 |
0.290 |
23 |
28 |
102 |
83 |
185 |
Player D |
27 |
655 |
0.261 |
22 |
16 |
86 |
74 |
160 |
Player E |
34 |
658 |
0.284 |
28 |
14 |
86 |
82 |
168 |
Player F |
9 |
579 |
0.303 |
22 |
20 |
89 |
85 |
174 |
On the surface, Player A holds his own against the sample in home runs (fifth out of six), stolen bases (tied for third out of six) and runs (third out of six), but lacks overall in the RBI (sixth of six) and batting average departments (sixth of six). As you might notice, however, players B, C, D and E got more playing time than Player A. Player A was healthy in 2012, but did not get regular major league playing time until May. In 2013, there is no indication that Player A will not play at least 150-155 games. He's athletic and young. Based on his 2012 numbers, that would prorate him to 665 plate appearances next year.
If we prorate Player A's 2012 campaign to 665 plate appearances, his numbers stack up:
Name |
AVG |
HR |
SB |
R |
RBI |
R+RBI |
HR+SB |
|---|
Player A per 650 PA |
0.270 |
24.5 |
20 |
109 |
66 |
175 |
44.5 |
Player B |
0.280 |
17 |
18 |
107 |
67 |
174 |
35 |
Player C |
0.290 |
23 |
28 |
102 |
83 |
185 |
51 |
Player D |
0.261 |
22 |
16 |
86 |
74 |
160 |
38 |
Player E |
0.284 |
28 |
14 |
86 |
82 |
168 |
42 |
Player F |
0.303 |
22 |
20 |
89 |
85 |
174 |
42 |
Player A Sample Rank |
6th |
2nd |
T-2nd |
T-1st |
6th |
2nd |
1st |
Player A's power/speed combination tops the sample, and his lackluster performance in RBIs last year (which I strongly anticipate to improve in 2013 since he will be batting in the three hole) was more than made up for in prorated runs scored. I find runs an incredibly underrated and undervalued statistic in fantasy baseball—and only Mike Trout scored more runs that our prorated Player A last season.
Before I name the mystery player, I want to give away the mystery by listing the ages of each of the unnamed players:
Player A: 19
Player B: 25
Player C: 26
Player D: 23
Player E: 27
Player F: 27
What does this all tell us? Player A is the youngest of the sample, by a healthy margin in light of hitters' historical aging curve data, and putting up numbers on par with older players at the same position that are being drafted ahead of him.
In case you have not guessed it, Player A is Bryce Harper's 2012 season. Player B is Justin Upton's 2012 season. Player C is Andrew McCutchen's career 162-game average batting line. Player D is Jason Heyward's career 162-game average batting line. Player E is Adam Jones' two-year (2011-12) 162-game average batting line. Player F is Carlos Gonzalez's 2012 season.
Now Bryce Harper, ranked 35th overall in Yahoo (37 in ESPN), is not a guy who is "falling far" and "getting forgotten." He's still a marginal third-round pick in 12-team formats. But does he really deserve to be taken there?
I have Harper valued just north of $30 ($32-33) in standard 12 team 5x5 formats. I think he can hit .280+ with 30 home runs, 15-20 stolen bases and a shot at 100 runs/RBI with upside to spare. Keep in mind that Harper will not be able to legally drink until the end of the 2014 season. ZiPS projects a .274 batting average, 26 home runs, 21 stolen bases, 89 runs and 70 RBI over 150 games played (641 PA).
Harper is the 27th overall rated hitter in fantasy per Yahoo. However, there are really only 10 or 11 hitters I'd take ahead of him at that cost: (in order): Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Carlos Gonzalez, Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Bautista, Adrian Beltre, and maybe Matt Holliday.
Out of the pool of pitchers, I would consider taking only Justin Verlander, Stephen Strasburg, Clayton Kershaw and maybe Felix Hernandez over him. That said, I would not take a single pitcher ahead of Harper because in my experience, a later-round pitcher is more likely to outperform an early-round pitcher than a later-round hitter is to outperform an early-round one. Anecdotally speaking, I presume this is because a single pitcher's starts makes up a larger percentage of total team pitching contributions (assuming innings pitched limits) than does a single day of hitting for a given player.
In other words, you can better cherry-pick pitcher match-ups to maximize outcomes and require less day-to-day (consistent) contribution from pitchers than hitters to be successful in fantasy. That may not be true, but that is my experience/strategy.
Put that together and Harper is a borderline first-round, guaranteed early second-round pick. Considering that he has Trout's pedigree (Harper was ranked ahead of Trout in the 2012 preseason by Baseball America and Fangraphs), that he posted All-Star caliber production at age 19 in the majors last year, and that he's absolutely mashing the ball in spring training (a grain of salt required, but he has a .438/.455/.750 triple slash line), I expect the young batter to break out in a major way in the majors this year.
Of all the upside plays in baseball this year, Harper is the best one. He might not come the cheapest, but he has a high floor, minimal health risk and one of the best chances of finishing in the top 10 after picks 15-20. Spend big, regret nothing.
Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 3:02am
(13) Comments
One of the great things about the internet ( besides this) is its ability to preserve statements forever. And by great, I really mean the worst thing about the internet ever. It was about a year ago that I had the following exchange with Cubs Den blogger John Arguello regarding Chicago pitcher Jeff Samardzija:
Arguello went on to make his case (which was reasonable) and I backtracked slightly, but ended with the following statement:
In hindsight, this makes me look quite bad. We know now that Samardzija easily cleared the "competent bullpen arm" bar I set last March, throwing 174.2 quality innings for a mostly hapless Cubs team, with an ERA of 3.81, a FIP of 3.55, and an xFIP of 3.38. His strikeouts per nine innings (9.27) and walks per nine innings (2.89) were similarly strong. The Notre Dame product even ended the year as the Cubs' ace (because every other candidate was injured or traded, but still). Just this week he turned down a Cubs' offer of "well above" $30MM to sign him through his next three years of arbitration and first two years of free agency. In April he will make the first Opening Day start of his career. And so on.
The dude had a solid year, okay?
So, what happened? And how did I miss it? I've been thinking a lot about this lately, because as much as I hate being wrong, I value the ability to learn from such missteps more. Being wrong is not the enemy. Being wrong happens, especially in a venture like this, where so much luck is involved, our information on these players is far from complete, and even Hall of Fame hitters get out as much as they reach base.
So why did I whiff?
Very simply, I took my eye off the ball. I stopped collecting data because I had already decided what Jeff Samardzija was and what Jeff Samardzija wasn't. He was the football guy from Notre Dame, the one the Cubs threw too much money at. The one with the stupid ( okay, awesome) hair. He was the pitcher with the good fastball, an inconsistent slider, and poor command. He was the guy who laughably saw himself as a starter heading into camp last spring when most thought he was competing for a bullpen job. He certainly was not a starting pitcher. Not hardly.
A cursory check of Samardzija's statistics told me all that I knew I already knew. The problem being, as is often the case, things were more complicated than that. Too often in sports we forget that each athlete is a human being, with a unique set of circumstances behind their personal evolution. Yes, we're also barraged with stories that mean nothing and have no effect on that player's performance going forward, but sometimes that stuff isn't bogus. Sometimes the 27-year-old prospect really is still developing after having split his interests between two sports on college. Sometimes coaches make a tweak that dramatically alters a player's career arc. Sometimes the numbers are trying to tell us things that we are too busy talking over to hear.
I won't go into too much detail here, because Samardzija has been covered well enough here, here, and here. What concerns me now is the data from 2011 that I missed because I glanced at Samardzija's 5.11 BB/9, saw an unsustainably low BABIP of .253, confirmed my bias, and moved on with my life. What I missed, were the details. Specifically, just how much Samardzija's control improved during his time as a reliever in 2011. Yes, the final tally wasn't pretty, but it belied strong and steady progress throughout the season.
| | | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | K% | BB% |
|---|
| 2011 | Mar/Apr | 9.98 | 9.39 | 1.06 | 24.30% | 22.90% | | 2011 | May | 11.05 | 5.52 | 2 | 26.10% | 13.00% | | 2011 | Jun | 8.22 | 4.7 | 1.75 | 21.50% | 12.30% | | 2011 | Jul | 7.07 | 3.86 | 1.83 | 17.20% | 9.40% | | 2011 | Aug | 9.56 | 3.38 | 2.83 | 27.90% | 9.80% | | 2011 | Sept/Oct | 7.11 | 3.5 | 2 | 19.60% | 9.80% | | 2011 | 1st Half | 9.06 | 5.9 | 1.53 | 22.40% | 14.70% | | 2011 | 2nd Half | 8.67 | 3.96 | 2.19 | 23.70% | 10.80% |
Samardzija dropped his walk rate virtually every month. His ability to do that while maintaining his strong strikeout numbers make it all the more impressive. There were other signs of his progress from 2011, as well, including jumps in his ability to elicit more swings on pitches outside the strike zone, and more swinging strikes in general. It's clear that, by the end of 2011, the Jeff Samardzija coming out of the pen was not the same one who was doing so the previous April. He already was more than a "competent bullpen arm" and was well on his way to last year's breakout. My eyes were just too closed to notice.
That said, he made even more progress last season:
| | | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | K% | BB% |
|---|
| 2012 | Mar/Apr | 9.38 | 3 | 3.13 | 23.80% | 7.60% | | 2012 | May | 9 | 2.48 | 3.64 | 25.50% | 7.00% | | 2012 | Jun | 7.71 | 5.79 | 1.33 | 17.20% | 12.90% | | 2012 | Jul | 9.82 | 3.55 | 2.77 | 27.70% | 10.00% | | 2012 | Aug | 9.86 | 1.64 | 6 | 27.50% | 4.60% | | 2012 | Sept/Oct | 9.56 | 1.13 | 8.5 | 27.40% | 3.20% | | 2012 | 1st Half | 8.88 | 3.29 | 2.7 | 23.20% | 8.60% | | 2012 | 2nd Half | 9.82 | 2.33 | 4.21 | 27.50% | 6.50% |
There's one obvious outlier there (June) and it's fair to wonder if that was related to the curveball he was screwing around with. When he dropped it, his walk rates were downright elite.
Where do we go from here? The cat is well out of the bag on this particular player, and I was smart enough last year to realize the folly of my ways before it was too late, acquiring Samardzija for virtually nothing in my dynasty league. And now, having reflected on my past error, maybe (just maybe) I'll think before I scoff next time.
Posted by Jack Weiland at 3:06am
(4) Comments
Monday, March 25, 2013
2012 was the inaugural season of The Daily Grind. The column originally was intended to highlight a few waiver-wire players who could help traditional fantasy owners for a given day, but it quickly became clear that the article applied to daily fantasy games like Fanduel, as well.
The format of the column will remain much the same, with picks for today and tomorrow broken down by four categories: pitcher to start, pitcher to exploit, power hitter, speed hitter.
The availability of a player in a traditional fantasy league is unpredictable. In essence, my leagues are not your leagues. I may be able to acquire and cut Justin Smoak at will, but you may not have that option.
To combat that shortcoming, I have created a report that highlights 110 players and position battles*. This should help owners in leagues that are shallower or deeper than the original target audience. The report will be updated continuously, and I encourage regular reader participation to make it even better. I'm not a beat writer for one team, let alone 30, so information will escape my attention.
There are two major additions I plan to incorporate at some point in the season. Both will require some experimentation in order to implement effectively.
Home run conditions: SI Weather has an iPhone/Android app that displays home run conditions in each ballpark for a given day. It's a simple 1-to-10 scale ranging from bad to great.
Unfortunately, my iPhone 3 cannot use it, so I cannot directly implement it into the column. Some basic research suggests I could successfully emulate Android apps on my PC. If anyone knows more about that, leave your contact info in the comments (or email me if you can solve the puzzle in my signature). I'm not a developer, so I expect it to be difficult.
Please be aware, I have not used the app, and this is not a recommendation to purchase it. However, I am told there will be free versions made available this season.
Weather conditions: Along the same vein, I'm looking to implement some sort of system that will alert me of impending weather events. The column runs half a day before most games, so don't expect perfection.
To recap in brief:
{exp:list_maker}Last season's format was effective and parsimonious
More detailed information can be displayed in an attached report
The column will work best as a team effort
Weather is important and should be included {/exp:list_maker}I'm looking forward to Season Two of The Daily Grind. I accept payment in the form of Twitter follows.
*Please note, the current report is incomplete and not finalized. It makes little sense to update during spring training.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 3:01am
(0) Comments
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