Addendum to the Waiver Wireby Derek Carty
June 16, 2007
I forgot to talk about a few guys in yesterday's Waiver Wire, so I'll do that now.
Brendan Harris | TB | SS - Has only hit 1 HR past 400 true feet, so I wouldn't expect this trend to continue. His BA is a little inflated, but his 82% Contact and 8% Walk rates are decent. His 27.7% LD rate should come down a little, but Harris could be counted on for a .280 BA. Better SS options are probably out there in shallower leagues.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Casey Kotchman | LAA | 1B - The one-time top prospect is tearing it up this year. His power has been decent, hitting 4 of 7 HRs HitTracker has data on past 400 true feet. The furthest only went 410 feet so it's not like he's tearing the cover off the ball, though. He isn't exactly getting lucky, either, so 20 HRs isn't out of reach. His 31.2% Fly ball rate is pretty low, but it doesn't seem to be affecting him too much. If it increases, he should only hit more HRs. Scouts have marveled at how 'clean' Kotchman's swing is, and his contact numbers are pretty good. He has a spectacular 92% Contact rate this year, and although it was never quite that high in the minors, it shouldn't end up any lower than 87%. His 10% walk rate is good, and the only thing to be concerned about is his 14% Line Drive rate. A .285-.290 average is still quite likely, and if the LD rate improves he could end up at .300. Hitting fifth for the Angels should provide plenty of RBI opportunities and allow him to score a respectable number of runs.
Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest AL-only leagues.
Dmitri Young | WAS | 1B - Young is putting up his best Contact rate/Walk rate combination since 1997. I doubt it will last, but Young is worth riding out until it stops. His Line Drive rate is also his highest since 2003, so a little bit of a decline might be in order. His .377 BABIP will dip, but for now a .290 BA should be in the cards for Young. 4 of his 6 HRs have gone past 400 feet, and he should hit at least 20 HRs. Only being eligible at First Base and playing for the Nats hurts his value, but he is still a pretty good player. Be aware that he is always prone to injury.
Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.
Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.
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