The Hardball Times Fantasy

Sleepers awoken

by Paul Singman
March 30, 2010

Every year it happens and this year is no exception: There are a few players who start off as great values where they are drafted early in the offseason but by the time March rolls around, these players are everybody's favorite picks and are snatched faster than cupcakes at a child's birthday party.

While these players are great players with inspiring potential for the upcoming season, I feel too many people are looking too far into what these players might possibly do as opposed to what they most likely will do.

Here is a list of a few of those players whose hype trains are being boarded a few stops too early:

Julio Borbon

In the 12th round, where Borbon is taken on average in drafts, he is a decent pick. However I've seen him go as high as the eighth round, which is like buying a seed and expecting a tree to grow, instead of simply buying the tree itself for the same price. That was a bad metaphor—I'm aware—but nevertheless he most likely will bat around .275 with a handful of home runs and about 30 to 40 steals.

When taken in the eighth round, his ceiling of a .300 average and 40 steals is needed to justify the pick while that line is much closer to Shane Victorino's average line and he can be taken around this time as well.

Brett Anderson

I love Anderson as much as the next guy, but I admittedly loved him more when he could be drafted comfortably around round 16. Now the word is clearly out and I've seen him go as high as pick 108, which would be fine assuming he throws 200 innings with a 3.75 ERA and 175 strikeouts.

Even though I certainly believe he is capable of posting those type of numbers based on what he did last year as a 21-year-old, taking him there means picking him over an impressive array of pitchers with more proven track records. I find that difficult to do.

Elvis Andrus

There is certainly a lot to like about Andrus—his name, his slick fielding abilities, his youth, his position—to name some of the attractors. However, I think people are forgetting what his 2009 line looked like, allow me to remind you:

And his 2010 line probably won't look much different from that. Maybe a few more runs (though he is slated to bat ninth), bump the steals total up to 40 and the average to .275 at the highest. At his current Yahoo ADP of 115, I would begrudgingly take him, but people are actually drafting him significantly above that. I've seen him go as high as pick 80 and there is a small chance to get good value in return at that position.

Concluding thoughts

The bottom line is to always look at things objectively and not get swept up when the hype builds around certain players, even if their name is Elvis and you have a clever team name planned if you get them.

Paul has been managing fantasy baseball teams for many seasons and writing for THT Fantasy over the past three years. He is currently a student at UPenn welcomes readers' thoughts at his email here or in the comments below.


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