The Hardball Times Fantasy

Will Brett Gardner perform in pinstripes?

by Paul Singman
March 02, 2010


This offseason the Yankees did not sign Matt Holliday to a seven-year, $120 million contract, nor did they try to lure in Jason Bay with a four-year, $66 million deal. They would not even let incumbent left fielder Johnny Damon sniff at a deal more than one year that paid over $6 million per.

Forgoing the traditional Yankee way of paying the biggest name the most money, the Yankees seem content to let 2005 third-round pick Brett Gardner patrol their left field for somewhere in the neighborhood of $400,000. It is not my place to determine whether it is the right move from a team standpoint but since the Yankees are opting to give Gardner plenty of at-bats in 2010, as fantasy owners we might as well look at what Gardner can offer to fantasy teams with those at-bats.

First, a look at his past numbers:

As you can see, Gardner has progressed nicely up to the major league level, never becoming too overmatched at any level along the way. Thanks to good plate discipline and contact ability (something we will look into further later), Gardner was able to maintain respectable batting averages, and after an uninspiring major league debut in 2008, Gardner showed he has the tools to stick around the majors with his 2009 performance.

Speed

Of course what sticks out the most are Gardner's stolen base totals—especially that 37-steal mark he posted in Triple-A in 2008. On the right is a chart of his stolen base success rates, showing he has the ability to steal bases efficiently and therefore accumulate steals quickly.

Also working in his favor are his tendencies to hit singles and draw a fair amount of walks. What these singles and walks do is put Gardner on first base often—as opposed to second base after a double or the dugout after a strikeout—which puts him in prime stealing position. The more opportunities you have to steal, the more stolen bases you'll be able to attempt, and the more successful you'll be.

Given almost a full season of at-bats, Gardner should have little problem breaking 30 steals and I feel most likely he will steal around 40 bases. Clearly Gardner is an elite base stealer, but without enough skill in the other aspects of baseball even the fastest of players begin to lose playing time (a la Scott Podsednik).

So how do Gardner's other skills stack up?

Power

In the power department Gardner is obviously lacking, even in gap power. And since no amount of short right-field porch can save him, Gardner's home run potential is capped at a measly six home runs. Even without any power game to speak of Gardner can still provide solid fantasy production, most easily if his batting average stays in the .270s or above. For that reason, let's take a look at his plate discipline stats.

Plate discipline

To learn these stats or for a refresher on them click here.

+------+-------+-----+----+----------+------+-------------+-----------+
| Year | Level | BB% | K% | Judgment | A/P  | Bat Control | Bad Ball  |
+------+-------+-----+----+----------+------+-------------+-----------+
| 2008 |  AAA  |  16 | 22 |     ---  | ---- |        --   |       --  |
| 2008 |  MLB  |   6 | 24 |      83  | 0.14 |        97   |       75  |
| 2009 |  MLB  |   9 | 16 |     102  | 0.06 |        92   |       76  |
+------+-------+-----+----+----------+------+-------------+-----------+

From the looks of this table, Gardner has the plate discipline of a polished hitter, one certainly capable of posting batting averages in the .270s and most likely even higher. Despite average judgment in deciding which pitches to swing at, Gardner is excellent at making contact with all pitches, both inside and out of the strike zone. With his generally passive approach at the plate he draws his fair share of walks and has done well at cutting back on the number of strikeouts pitchers get on him.

Coupling his good approach at the plate with his ability to hit the ball on the ground and run—a great recipe for BABIP success—I would expect his BABIP to rise from his 2009 mark of .311 to his CHONE-projected BABIP of .324. When you factor these things together, I see the picture of a .290 and possibly .300 hitter forming, and certainly not one below .270.

Final thoughts

Summing the parts together, Gardner is a player I see capable of posting a line of 85 runs, four home runs, 60 RBIs, 40 steals, and a .290 batting average. Call me optimistic, but looking at Gardner's skill set and also players he has aptly been compared to like Nyjer Morgan, I feel that line is within Gardner's limits.

Even with Randy Winn applying some pressure in terms of playing time, as long as Gardner does not stumble out of the gate I feel he will secure for himself the lion's share of starts in left field. And although he is slated to bat last in the Yankee lineup, with Nick Swisher or Robinson Cano in front of him and Derek Jeter behind him, batting ninth in that lineup will provide similar run and RBI opportunities to batting second in many other lineups.

Currently Gardner's ADP over at Mock Draft Central is 333 and he is going undrafted in most drafts. In Yahoo's preseason ranks he ranked as the 83rd outfielder, behind plenty of players I feel he will outproduce in 2010, including Jermaine Dye, Mark Teahen, and Conor Jackson to name a few. So at the moment he is flying under most people's radars.

Gardner probably won't find his way on teams in shallow mixed leagues, but in deeper mixed leagues and AL-only leagues he makes a solid late-round outfield option with elite stolen base potential.

Paul has been managing fantasy baseball teams for many seasons and writing for THT Fantasy over the past three years. He is currently a student at UPenn welcomes readers' thoughts at his email here or in the comments below.


<< Return to Article