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Thursday, June 18, 2009
Yesterday, Boston SS Nick Green went 1-for-3 to raise his average to .293. He now has a line on the season of 293/.344/.442.
Those numbers are unlikely to last. Entering this season, Green had a career line in the majors of .240/.309/.347, and he hadn't appeared substantially since 2006. As a 29-year-old in Triple-A last year, Green batted .233/.285/.373; his career Triple-A line is .268/.318/.434.
Key number: 22%. That's Green's K/AB, and it bodes ill for a healthy BA. I looked at all player-seasons from 2006-08 of >200 AB and K% between 20-25%. The aggregate BA is .270. And the batters in this group were collectively stronger than Green (192 IsoSLG for pool vs. 149 IsoSLG for Green), which suggests that Green's BA would fall on the low side of that .270.
Heater has a YTD OPS rank for Green (among AL SS) of #7 but a "True" rank of #14 (and True BA of .242). It would be ideal to sell him now while he is getting regular playing time.
Posted by John Burnson at 10:15am
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