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THT Essentials: Now available 
 Derek Ambrosino
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Friday, July 03, 2009Wright power bounceback? Maybe not too likelyDavid Wright owners? Sorry, but that power bounceback you're expecting might not be coming. The excellent Sean Smith ran some numbers a week or so ago and found that Wright should only be expected to hit around 11 more dingers from now until the end of the season. He does estimate the BABIP to be a very high .368, but the expected 76 percent contact rate would put his rest-of-season batting average at around .303. All said, expect Wright to be a good fantasy contributor the rest of the way, but don't expect him to reach 30 or even 20 HRs — and of course the batting average will drop. Also, for what it's worth, True Home Runs wasn't the biggest fan of Wright coming into the year. I originally thought he might have been a lone outlier, somehow beating the system (and it's possible this 2009 outage is caused more by CitiField than anything else), but perhaps not. Worth noting. It's on my list to check into further. Posted by Derek Carty at 10:30pm Vazquez trade rumorsThere have been some trade rumors regarding Javier Vazquez over the past month or so (h/t MLBTR), and given my fascination with the guy, I thought I should chime in on these. If he is traded, he'd likely still be a top fantasy option, though his park is more favorable than most in many regards. Strikeouts are boosted 3.9 percent, BABIP is suppressed by at least 4 percent, and HRs are suppressed by 0.9 percent (though BBs are boosted and GBs are suppressed by about 1.5 percent each). Overall, Turner Field only suppressed run scoring by 0.4 percent, so a move could end up being beneficial for Vazquez if he stays within the National League, especially if he finds himself with a better offense going to bat for him and a better defense behind him (the Braves are 22nd in run scoring and 28th in UZR/150 this season). |
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