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Friday, July 31, 2009
With so many trades occurring over the past few days, most of our Buy on the Rumor, trade deadline, fantasy fallout analysis has gotten knocked off the front page. Here is a list of everything we've written, in case you missed anything.
Questions on anything? Waiver claims, FAAB bids, additional fallout, whatever, feel free to ask away.
Posted by Derek Carty at 5:39pm
Moves with some fantasy relevance
Jerry Hairston to Yankees
Should backup several positions for the Yankees. Loses some value due to lost PT, but the rates shouldn't be affected much. In Cincy, Alex Gonzalez is more secure at SS and the crowded OF gets a little less crowded, though Wladimir Balentein could go right into the Jerry-Hairston-Jr.-as-an-outfielder role, so maybe it's not less crowded.
Moves with minimal fantasy relevance
Joe Beimel to Rockies
No more save chances for Beimel; keep an eye on Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard in Washington. Mike MacDougal is imploding... soon.
Claudio Vargas to Brewers
Good news for my LABR NL team (Vargas was the throw-in when I acquired Max Scherzer), but of minimal importance to most others. Vargas will get some starts in Milwaukee and could be solid. Worth a pickup in NL-only.
John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny to Cubs; Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio, and Josh Harrison to Pirates
Grabow is no longer next in line for saves. Fantasy value, done. Gorzelanny is still not good and doesn't deserve a chance in your fantasy rotation, even if the Cubs give him one in theirs. Hart has posted good minor league numbers, but it's never really translated to the majors. Should slide into Pitt's rotation, but he looks like a high variance guy. Worth a shot in deep NL-only leagues, though he's probably already owned in the leagues he's worth owning in.
Posted by Derek Carty at 5:25pm
The trade: Red Sox' 1B Adam LaRoche for Braves' 1B Casey Kotchman
Like the Reds-Jays trade, we see a simple swap of corner infielders. Unlike that trade, the values of these two guys change drastically. LaRoche becomes the Braves' new starting 1B, and if he was dropped in any NL-only leagues (either by choice or league rules), he makes a great pickup. Not the coziest park, but it's neutral-ish and much better than playing part-time.
Kotchman, on the other hand, sees his value plummet. He won't see many starts in Boston with Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez getting most of the 1B ABs. A Mike Lowell injury is one of the few things that can save Kotchman's fantasy season, forcing Youkilis to third and opening up a spot for him.
Posted by Derek Carty at 5:19pm
The trade: Blue Jays' 3B Scott Rolen for Reds' 3B Edwin Encarnacion, RP Josh Roenicke, and P Zach Stewart.
The Jays and Reds swap third basemen here, to the delight of 'only'-league owners. Neither's value changes much. Toronto has the more favorable park (by a little bit — Great American is still a good HR park), but the tougher AL league will offset much of the difference. The batting order impact is still yet to be seen.
Roenicke is a reliever, and though he has good skills, has limited fantasy relevance. Stewart looked decent at Double-A but had big control problems when promoted to Triple-A (and moved to the bullpen) earlier in the season. We shouldn't see him in the majors in 2009.
Posted by Derek Carty at 5:11pm
The trade: Nationals' 1B Nick Johnson for Marlins' prospect Aaron Thompson
The Nats needed to move Johnson, but Thompson isn't a guy I'd be thrilled with. He's not fantasy relevant, in any case. Johnson's value rises a bit moving to the better offense as he should collect some more RBI and runs. He'll move Jorge Cantu back to third base and finally push Emilio Bonifacio to the bench. He'll play some games all over the infield and in left field, so his value isn't trashed, but he won't be particularly useful except for a handful of steals. If you were still hanging onto him at this point, guys, sorry, but you probably deserve this.
This also eliminates much of 1B Gaby Sanchez's speculative value for this year. It looked like he might find regular PT at 1B in the near future, but that won't happen unless Johnson gets injured (crazier things have happened ) and the team decides to play Sanchez over Bonifacio.
Posted by Derek Carty at 5:04pm
The trade: Padres' SP Jake Peavy for White Sox prospects SP Aaron Poreda, SP Clayton Richard, RP Adam Russell, and SP Dexter Carter
The most unexpected trade of the day (and yes, Peavy approved it). Peavy may not even pitch again in 2009, but he's worth a small bid in AL-only leagues in case. From Chris Neault this past Sunday: "Best case scenario - if he does return at all - is a return around September 1st, with a few starts, tops."
For the Padres, they get a pretty decent haul. Clayton Richard will almost certainly slide right into San Diego's rotation, ending the Edward Mujica-as-a-starter experiment before it began. Richard is an underrated pitcher to begin with and should greatly benefit from the move. Not only is he moving from the AL to the NL, he's moving from the most extreme hitter's park in the majors to one of the most extreme pitcher's parks (in terms of HRs) — a 40.3% swing! He'll also see a positive 9.2% swing in Ks, a slight bump in his GB%, and only a small increase in BBs.
NL-only leaguers who miss out on Cliff Lee, make sure you push Richard to the top of your backup list. An ERA around 4.00 is quite possible, perhaps even likely.
Poreda is a guy scouts like more than the numbers, never posting a good K and BB rate together since Rookie league ball. Even if the Padres recall him over the next couple months (not entirely likely), expectations should be low. Only consider stashing in very deep NL-only leagues, though the move definitely improves his keeper league value moving to the NL and PETCO.
Russell never put up great numbers before either, but he has turned it on at Triple-A this year. He might not see any action this year, but if he does, keep a close eye on him in NL-only.
Carter's still in A-ball and a ways away.
This does make things a bit murky for when Cha Baek returns (which should be coming within a week or two), but he's a great, undervalued pitcher who should be stashed in deep mixed and NL-only leagues regardless. Hopefully the Padres will make room for him.
Posted by Derek Carty at 4:42pm
The trade: Mariners' SP Jarrod Washburn for Tigers' P Luke French and P Mauricio Robles
Washburn's value takes a clear hit here. As a flyball pitcher, he was taking full-advantage of the Mariners' excellent defensive outfield. In addition, Comerica suppresses Ks by nearly 14% over Safeco (although it also suppresses walks by 6.5%), a very big figure. Comerica reduces HRs, but his HR/FB is due for a regression anyway, and we should expect his ERA to be over 4.50 the rest of the way. Hopefully you sold Washburn while you had the chance.
No one affected in Detroit with Washburn sliding into French's spot in the rotation. French will probably do the same in Seattle, though his job is surely less secure. His numbers were never particularly promising in the minors and he doesn't have the kind of stuff scouts rave about, but he did post solid numbers at Triple-A this year. His major league numbers were barely passable, especially considering that he put up an extreme flyball rate. It was more normal in the minors, but we should still only consider him in the deepest of AL-only leagues.
Robles isn't fantasy relevant for 2009.
Posted by Derek Carty at 4:31pm
The trade: A's SS Orlando Cabrera for Twins' SS Tyler Ladendorf.
Cabrera's K% should increase, but so should his BABIP, so his batting average probably won't change too much. The power should also stay the same, so the lineup around him is really the only difference. Cabrera had been batting second for the A's, and the Twins could do the same with him (as they did with 2B Alexi Casilla and Brendan Harris to start the season) and push Joe Mauer to #3 and Justin Morneau to #4. In this case, his run scoring should see a solid increase and he could net a few more RBIs as well.
Cabrera will likely take lots of time away from Nick Punto and Harris unless the team decides it wants to demote Casilla again and let Punto play second.
In Oakland, the big beneficiary is Cliff Pennington. He's a very speed SS prospect who will get a chance to start everyday. He has almost no power, won't post a great batting average, and will likely bat towards the bottom of the order, so he's strictly an AL-only play. If you need speed, though, there may not be a better guy coming. The #2 hole will now be open, but it's not clear who will occupy it yet. Whoever does will get a nice boost in value.
Ladendorf is still far away from the majors.
Trade RumorsFrom MLB Trade Rumors
Dodgers To Sign Brian Wilson
Phillies Sign Jeff Manship
Phillies Sign Wil Nieves
Tigers Sign Joe Nathan
Mariners Sign Willie Bloomquist
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