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Friday, July 31, 2009
Jake Peavy to White Sox… for real this timePosted by Derek Carty at 4:42pm
The trade: Padres' SP Jake Peavy for White Sox prospects SP Aaron Poreda, SP Clayton Richard, RP Adam Russell, and SP Dexter Carter
The most unexpected trade of the day (and yes, Peavy approved it). Peavy may not even pitch again in 2009, but he's worth a small bid in AL-only leagues in case. From Chris Neault this past Sunday: "Best case scenario - if he does return at all - is a return around September 1st, with a few starts, tops."
For the Padres, they get a pretty decent haul. Clayton Richard will almost certainly slide right into San Diego's rotation, ending the Edward Mujica-as-a-starter experiment before it began. Richard is an underrated pitcher to begin with and should greatly benefit from the move. Not only is he moving from the AL to the NL, he's moving from the most extreme hitter's park in the majors to one of the most extreme pitcher's parks (in terms of HRs) — a 40.3% swing! He'll also see a positive 9.2% swing in Ks, a slight bump in his GB%, and only a small increase in BBs.
NL-only leaguers who miss out on Cliff Lee, make sure you push Richard to the top of your backup list. An ERA around 4.00 is quite possible, perhaps even likely.
Poreda is a guy scouts like more than the numbers, never posting a good K and BB rate together since Rookie league ball. Even if the Padres recall him over the next couple months (not entirely likely), expectations should be low. Only consider stashing in very deep NL-only leagues, though the move definitely improves his keeper league value moving to the NL and PETCO.
Russell never put up great numbers before either, but he has turned it on at Triple-A this year. He might not see any action this year, but if he does, keep a close eye on him in NL-only.
Carter's still in A-ball and a ways away.
This does make things a bit murky for when Cha Baek returns (which should be coming within a week or two), but he's a great, undervalued pitcher who should be stashed in deep mixed and NL-only leagues regardless. Hopefully the Padres will make room for him.
Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.
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