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Thursday, January 28, 2010Jose Arredondo the RedPosted by Josh Shepardson at 4:03pmOn January 22, 2010 the Cincinnati Reds made an under the radar signing of Jose Arredondo to a Major League contract. The biggest reason this signing flew under the radar, among others, is that Jose Arredondo will be missing the 2010 season due to Tommy John surgery he'll be having this month. Another likely reason this deal hasn't been well covered is due to the fact Francisco Cordero is already the closer in place in Cincinnati. All that said, the Arredondo signing is one that should be of interest depending on your league's format. Jose Arredondo was a very useful reliever during the 2008 season for the LA Angels of Anaheim, and was being referred to by some as a closer in waiting. Arredondo's LIPS ERA for the 2008 season was 3.67 and his DIPS WHIP was 1.25, rather solid for a rookie reliever pitching in the more difficult league. Arredondo was unable to repeat his 2008 performance last year. Arredondo's LIPS ERA jumped to 4.34 and his DIPS WHIP to 1.46. The question that now arises is why the jump in his LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP, was it due to injury, or was he simply less effective? Well according to fangraphs player page for Arredondo his average fastball velocity dropped from 93.7 MPH to 92.4 MPH, his slider velocity dropped from 85.4 MPH to 84.9 MPH, his slitter dropped from 85.2 MPH to 83.9 MPH, and his changeup velocity remained almost identical as it was 84.4 MPH in 2008 and 84.5 MPH in 2009. While none of those velocity drops are staggering, they are of note, and could help explain his regression. Another problem, which without question hurt Arredondo was a jump in walks per nine innings (BB/9) from 3.25 in 2008 to 4.60 in 2009. His groundball ratio (GB%) also regressed from 51.2% to 44.2% which likely hurt his LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP as well. It remains to be seen how Arredondo will recover from TJ surgery, and how long it takes him to rehab. Fantasy owners can be thankful that Arredondo is expected to (or perhaps has had, though I haven't been able to find anything) surgery in January. That means even if he takes the full twelve months to recover and rehab, he'll have a few months to display good health before most fantasy drafts. Those fantasy gamers who play in deeper leagues, or in leagues that use holds, should keep tabs on Arredondo's rehab this season. Early next year the first things I'll be keeping tabs on are where his velocity is, what his walk rate is, and what his groundball ratio is. If Arredondo is able to keep his GB% around 51.2%, as it was in 2008, he'll have a reasonable shot at managing the perils of his homeballpark (12.3% greater rate of home runs per flyball according to David Gassko's Ball Park Factors). If he can keep the ball in the yard, he should also enjoy the fruits of the move from the AL to the NL, which in the least should help his strikeouts per nine innings (K/9). In conclusion, Jose Arredondo is a player I'll be keeping tabs on this year with the intention of scooping him up in 2011 if healthy. Feel free to reach me at my e-mail, JoshShep50 AT Yahoo DOT com with any questions, feedback, or any other general inquiries. Commenting is not available in this weblog entry. Next Post: Moving Middle Infielders Pt. 1: Orlando Cabrera Signs With Reds>> <<Previous Post: Jon Garland stays out west with Padres | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
