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Monday, July 06, 2009Lots of Escobar rumorsPosted by Derek Carty at 12:29pmI seem to be hearing rumors all over the place about the possibility of the Braves trading young SS Yunel Escobar, although the likelihood of such a move seems to be up for debate. Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says that Escobar is "legit possibility to be moved" despite his affordable contract, while ESPN's Jayson Stark says that "an Escobar trade seems highly unlikely", citing a couple of non-Brave, MLB team sources. I don't really get all the hooplah — he's a below-average defender and only a slightly above average offensive player — but teams seem to want him (like the Royals and Red Sox). The Braves will want a lot in return for him, but in the event he is traded, the stock of MI Diory Hernandez would likely skyrocket. The Braves like Martin Prado better, allowing him to play over Kelly Johnson before he hit the DL, so he could see some time at SS, but Prado has never really played much there at the big league level and his -23.8 UZR/150 at second base (including poor range) indicates it wouldn't be a sound move. That leaves Diory Hernandez with an open path to playing time as he's the only guy on the active roster capable of playing short. He's not a tremendous player, but he would make a great add in NL-only leagues with his solid power/speed combination and respectable enough batting average skills. If he's available in your league and you have an open roster spot, it might not hurt to stash him, depending on whether you believe O'Brien or Stark more. Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.
Derek Carty said...
More on Escobar. Trade not looking likely: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/braves-not-likely-to-move-escobar.html Posted 07/06 at 07:13 PM
Arun said...
Has Escobar become a below-average defender just based on his play this year? He finished 3rd in the fielding bible awards last season. He was 5th in RZR last year, and would have been 5th had he qualified in 2007. He’s also 3rd in RC this year (but was 12th last year). That, and he’s under contract through 2012, his age 29 season. You don’t see the hooplah? Posted 07/07 at 10:43 AM
Derek Carty said...
Well, I like UZR better than RZR, and it had Escobar at just a 1.9 UZR/150 last season - slightly above average. This season, he’s at -10.0 UZR/150. In his major league career, he clocks in at -2.4 UZR/150, a little below average. He does play a premium position, is cheap, and is an above average offensive player, but he’s also not as good as RC indicates. RC is a bit flawed, and wOBA is better to use. He ranks 6th among shortstops this year with 150 TPAs and was 12th last year among SSs with 300 TPAs. If we do a quick check of FanGraphs, we see that he is 11th among SSs with 150 TPAs this year in WAR, checking in at just 1.4 wins above replacement when all is considered. Maybe I’m overly pessimistic about Escobar, or maybe my understanding of everyone else’s feelings towards him are off, but he just seems overrated to me for a guy the Royals apparently ‘covet’ and who has been talked about at such great lengths over the past month. Posted 07/07 at 03:40 PM
Dave Studeman said...
Dewan has him about average in fielding this year. He’s probably at least an average fielder overall with an above-average stick. And he’s cheap. Given their shortstop situation, I can understand why the Royals and others would “covet” him. Posted 07/08 at 10:43 AM
Arun said...
I think it’s a combination of your pessimism and the attention he’s been getting over the past month. He’s clearly good (top 10) with a very attractive contract. There’s not that many SS that can say that. Posted 07/08 at 11:16 AM
Derek Carty said...
That’s true Arun. My opinion may also have been colored a bit by the fact that I’m a fantasy guy, where a top 10 SS isn’t necessarily anything special. I’m kind of surprised, though, that Dewan has him about average. His +/- and MGL’s UZR have very similar methodologies, if I’m not mistaken. Still, I can see where teams are coming from. Posted 07/09 at 02:38 PM
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More Escobar talk:
http://markbowman.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/07/johnson_placed_on_the_disabled.html#comment-3750741
MLB.com’s Mark Bowman: “I don’t think you should fret too much about the possibility of the Braves moving Escobar. I’m still not getting any sense that they have any desire to do so.”
h/t MLBTR: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/odds-and-ends-rays-hairston.html