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Friday, June 19, 2009
Sell on the news: Rick PorcelloPosted by John Burnson at 3:53pm
When a 20-year-old rookie who hasn't previously pitched above Single-A is compared by his manager to Nolan Ryan, that's probably a good "sell" signal. To be sure, Jim Leyland was speaking heatedly on May 18 when he said of Rick Porcello, ""I'm not going to take him out of the rotation. He's (bleeping) Nolan Ryan right now." Still, Leyland was seeing what the world was seeing, which was a 20-year-old rookie pitcher with a 3.86 ERA and 4 Wins after seven starts.
Yesterday, Porcello won his eighth game, and his ERA now sits at 3.54. But let's see how Porcello's skills have held up since Leyland's remarks:
IP K/9 K/BB ERA ===== ==== ==== ==== MLB < 3/18 39.2 5.7 1.9 3.86 MLB > 3/18 34.0 4.2 1.6 3.18 =========== ===== ==== ==== ==== Single-A 125.0 5.2 2.2 2.66What we were seeing before May 18 was plausibly the best that could have been hoped for Porcello given the jump in level; even then, though, he was hardly mastering batters. Granted, Porcello has a high G/F (and it's actually higher in the later stretch—3.6 G/F, vs. 2.8 G/F beforehand). But you don't survive in the majors with a 4.2 K/9 and 1.6 K/BB.
According to Heater, Porcello has a LIPS ERA of 4.46, and a "True" ERA of 5.53. With a jump of two runs, his rank would fall from the 17th-best ERA in the AL to the 65th-best. That's territory for a seller to make a nice profit.
Compiled by THT Staff.
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