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Friday, July 31, 2009
Victor Martinez to Red SoxPosted by Derek Carty at 3:37pm
Lots going on today, as you've surely noticed, and not all of the details are out yet. I'll try to spin everything with what we've got and makes changes later on as more details become available.
Today saw several big trades, one of which being Indians C Victor Martinez for Red Sox P Justin Masterson and prospects P Nick Hagadone and P Bryan Price. Pretty good trade for both sides. The Red Sox got their man without giving up Clay Buchholz, and the Tribe got the MLB-ready arm they were looking for and a couple of intriguing prospects.
Masterson gets the biggest boost in value as he should slide right into the Cleveland rotation and could do pretty well for himself. I'd expect an ERA in the low 4.00s and a WHIP in the 1.35 area. He's got pretty good skills to begin with and Jacobs Field boosts Ks by 9.1% and GBs by 2.9% over Fenway. It also boosts walks by 6.8%, but the net impact is well in positive territory. He can be considered in deep 12-team mixed leagues and should be owned in all AL-only and deep mixed leagues.
Victor Martinez's value won't change much. He'll split time at catcher with Jason Varitek and play some games at first and DH, like he did in Cleveland. His power numbers may drop a little, especially from the left side, but he will be hitting in a very potent lineup for RBI and runs and Fenway will be much better for his batting average.
The two prospects in the deal are still at least a couple years away from the majors.
Indirectly affected are Varitek and Tribe C Kelly Shoppach. Varitek's value drops considerably, while Shoppach sees his value rise since he won't have to split time anymore (at least until the team decides to recall top prospect C Carlos Santana, though that may not come until 2010). Feel free to pick him up in medium-sized mixed leagues if you need power and can take the batting average hit.
The addition of Masterson will push someone out of the Cleveland rotation. My guess would be David Huff, though Aaron Laffey or Jeremy Sowers could be the choice. Fausto Carmona deserves it, but just coming back from the DL, they'll give him one more shot. This also makes it somewhat unlikely that recently-acquired Carlos Carrasco will get to face major league hitters this season.
Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.
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