2004 NCAA Adjusted Statisticsby Craig Burley
June 02, 2004
I have now completed the analysis and adjustment of 2004 NCAA statistics, to May 30. This will be final release before the draft, and it's a doozy; all Division I pitchers with 25 or more innings pitched and all Division I hitters with at least 75 at-bats. In order to minimize the size of the files, I have made the stats available for download as .pdf files. Please see the links below to get the files; right-click on the link you want and choose "Save Target As..." to save the file to your computer, then open it up using Adobe Acrobat, GhostScript, or any other .pdf viewer.
A few explanatory notes are in order. I have modified my run estimation approach somewhat; instead of using xRuns, I am now using a slightly more accurate Custom Linear Weights approach that Tangotiger has helped me to develop. As a result "LWRAA" and similar statistics appear; these stand for "Linear Weights Runs Above Average" and so on. Offensive Winning Percentage is now calculated using this method as well.
Once again, I have adjusted LWRAA, OWP, and all the pitchers' "runs saved" and "RA+" metrics to account for both the run environment (including all home and road parks played in) and the level of competition a player faced.
I have also ranked pitchers according to RSAA (Runs Saved Above Average) instead of using the linear weights, because those linear weights measures are not available for about 3-5% of the pitchers. Where pitchers have both, though, use the LW numbers to measure performance, because they are considerably more accurate than simple runs allowed.
I would have liked to provide more analysis of the 2004 Draft using these numbers, but real life, as they say, sometimes gets in the way. Enjoy the numbers.
NCAA Hitters, Ranked In Order
NCAA Hitters, Team-By-Team List
NCAA Pitchers, Ranked In Order
NCAA Pitchers, Team-By-Team Listing
Thanks for all your kind words and thoughts and suggestions over the last two weeks. If time permits, I'll answer questions in a "mailbag" article on Friday or on Monday morning.
Craig Burley can be contacted via e-mail.
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