The Hardball Times

Closer watch

by Karl de Vries
May 20, 2013

Welcome to Closer Watch! If you want to look up a team's closer or his possible replacements, or just want a refresher on the league's closing situations, you'll find the answers on our continually updated chart.

AL Bullpens


+-----------+---------------------+----------------+-------------+----------------------------------+
| TEAM      | CLOSER              | INTERIM CLOSER | SECURITY    | NEXT-IN-LINE                     |
+-----------+---------------------+----------------+-------------+----------------------------------+
| Angels    | Ernesto Frieri      |                | Shaky       | Scott Downs, Ryan Madson (DL)    |
| Astros    | Jose Veras          |                | Shaky       | Wesley Wright                    |
| Athletics | Grant Balfour       |                | Secure      | Ryan Cook, Sean Doolittle        |
| Blue Jays | Casey Janssen       |                | Secure      | Steve Delabar, Esmil Rogers      |
| Indians   | Chris Perez         |                | Secure      | Vinnie Pestano                   |
| Mariners  | Tom Wilhelmsen      |                | Locked In   | Pryor, Luetge, Capps             |
| Orioles   | Jim Johnson         |                | Secure      | Pedro Strop, Darren O'Day        |
| Rangers   | Joe Nathan          |                | Locked In   | Jason Frasor, Tanner Scheppers   |
| Rays      | Fernando Rodney     |                | Shaky       | Peralta, McGee, Farnsworth       |
| Red Sox   | Andrew Bailey       |                | Secure      | Junichi Tazawa, Koji Uehara      |
| Royals    | Greg Holland        |                | Secure      | Aaron Crow, Kelvin Herrera       |
| Tigers    | Jose Valverde       |                | Secure      | Coke, Benoit, Rondon             |
| Twins     | Glen Perkins        |                | Secure      | Jared Burton, Casey Fien         |
| White Sox | Addison Reed        |                | Locked In   | Matt Thornton, Jesse Crain       |
| Yankees   | Mariano Rivera      |                | Locked In   | David Robertson                  |
+-----------+---------------------+----------------+-------------+----------------------------------+

NL Bullpens


+-----------+---------------------+----------------+-------------+----------------------------------+
| TEAM      | CLOSER              | INTERIM CLOSER | SECURITY    | NEXT-IN-LINE                     |
+-----------+---------------------+----------------+-------------+----------------------------------+
| Braves    | Craig Kimbrel       |                | Locked In   | Jonny Venters, Walden            |
| Brewers   | Jim Henderson       |                | Secure      | John Axford, Mike Gonzalez       |
| Cardinals | Edward Mujica       |                | Secure      | Trevor Rosenthal                 |
| Cubs      | Kevin Gregg         |                | Shaky       | Kyuji Fujikawa, Carlos Marmol    |
| D'Backs   | Heath Bell          |                | Secure      | David Hernandez, J.J. Putz (DL)  |
| Dodgers   | Brandon League      |                | Shaky       | Kenley Jansen                    |
| Giants    | Sergio Romo         |                | Locked In   | Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez   |
| Marlins   | Steve Cishek        |                | Secure      | Jon Rauch, A.J. Ramos            |
| Mets      | Bobby Parnell       |                | Secure      | Frank Francisco, Brandon Lyon    |
| Nationals | Rafael Soriano      |                | Secure      | Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard      |
| Padres    | Huston Street       |                | Secure      | Luke Gregerson                   |
| Phillies  | Jonathan Papelbon   |                | Locked In   | Mike Adams                       |
| Pirates   | Jason Grilli        |                | Locked In   | Mark Melancon                    |
| Reds      | Aroldis Chapman     |                | Locked In   | Jonathan Broxton                 |
| Rockies   | Rafael Betancourt   |                | Locked In   | Matt Belisle, Rex Brothers       |
+-----------+---------------------+----------------+-------------+----------------------------------+


Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

<< Return to Article The daily grind: 5-20-13 from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The daily grind: 5-20-13

by Brad Johnson
May 20, 2013

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.


Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): Scott Kazmir is currently posting some of the best peripherals of his career. The only blemish is an extremely elevated HR/FB ratio: 21.2 percent of fly balls have left the yard.

Jake Odorizzi will make his first start as a Ray today. He was posting solid numbers in Triple-A, including a strikeout rate above nine per nine innings and a walk rate around three per nine. He may be in the rotation for only a few starts while David Price is out.

In terms of expectations, Odorizzi will probably provide top waiver quality output—something like eight K/9, four BB/9, a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His ownership could shoot up quickly since he's a prospect.

I saw Jeremy Guthrie was facing the Astros today and then I saw he's owned in 61 percent of leagues. I hope about 40 of that 61 percent picked him up as a stream starter, but I know better. Tsk tsk.

Pitcher (bum): There are a couple epic exploits in play for today.

Zach Duke versus Ryan Vogelsong promises fireworks aplenty.

Josh Lindblomt—a relievert—is starting against the A's today.

Alex Sanabia tends to bend but not break. He's a good bet to allow four runs on five innings.

Shaun Marcum is coming off his best outing and could be in the process of turning the corner. I'm going to continue betting against him for the time being.

The Yankees should enjoy a reunion with Freddy Garcia.

Hitter (power): Travis Hafner has dropped off his epic pace, but you can try him out against Garcia.

Domonic Brown is a solid play against Sanabia.

Play the Seth Smith and Brandon Moss train today, although they'll face a mix of righties and lefties.

Hitter (speed):
Eric Young Jr. will start against lefty Patrick Corbin. You may also want to try Gerardo Parra against Jon Garland.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): Matt Garza is 59 percent owned, but in the leagues where he is not owned, this may be your one shot to scoop him up.

Jose Fernandez barely qualifies for a recommendation at 48 percent owned. He's done well against the Phillies in two outings and they may be without Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz.

Pitcher (bum):
Go ahead and stack Angels against Aaron Harang.

The Cardinals will face erratic righty Edinson Volquez.

Tyler Cloyd has been roughed up by Triple-A lineups worse than the Marlins all season. For daily league owners, this might be a rare opportunity to lean on the Marlins offense for cheap points.

Mike Pelfrey's looking pretty ugly this year. The Braves aren't likely to go hungry tomorrow.

Hitter (power):
Juan Francisco will bring his hard swing against Pelfrey.

Dan Straily has struggled with command, making him a solid match-up for David Murphy.

Jonny Gomes will get to face another non-elite lefty in Jose Quintana.

Did you know that "the Royals are 5-0 when Wade Davis allows four runs or fewer but 0-3 when he does not." Thanks MLB.com. Now try Carlos Pena against him.

Hitter (speed):
Kelly Johnson has a good match-up against Ramon Ortiz.

You can hang onto Parra for his start against Jhoulys Chacin.

Noteworthy news


Johnny Cueto is back in action today.

Jurickson Profar has been recalled and will start at second base while Ian Kinsler recovers from bruised ribs. It will likely be a short stint on the disabled list, so don't cut a key contributor for Profar. Yahoo surprisingly gave him only UTIL eligibility.

Garza will make his first start of the season tomorrow.

Weather watch


Games in Baltimore and Chicago may see isolated storms today, but the weather seems manageable otherwise.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

<< Return to Article And That Happened from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

And That Happened

by Craig Calcaterra
May 20, 2013



Craig writes the HardballTalk blog for NBC Sports.com

<< Return to Article The Hot Seat from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The Hot Seat

by Scott Strandberg
May 20, 2013

Remember that feeling you used to get on Christmas Eve, giddy with excitement and unable to sleep? That’s how I’m feeling as I write this, because Jurickson Profar was called up on Sunday to replace the injured Ian Kinsler and is slated to start at second base on Monday.

If he’s on the waiver wire in your league, even in standard mixed leagues, go pick him up right now. If you’re in an AL-only league, he’s almost certainly already owned, but in mixed leagues he’s likely available, seeing as his ownership on Yahoo is currently 29 percent and just 9.8 percent on ESPN.

Profar, regarded by many as the best prospect in all of baseball, earned a cup of coffee with the big-league club last season as a 19-year-old after he hit .281/.368/.452 in Double-A. He started this year in Triple-A, and while his .278/.370/.438 line looks pretty good to start with, especially for a middle infielder, he has been absolutely raking lately. In his last ten games, Profar is hitting an absurd .415 with four walks and four strikeouts in 46 plate appearances, and he homered twice on Saturday before receiving the call-up on Sunday.

Still just 20 years old, Profar has a tremendously mature approach at the plate, as evidenced by the fact that he has 180 walks and 212 strikeouts in his minor-league career. He also possesses one of the best hit tools in the minors, and because of those two factors, he should be able to hit for a high average in the majors right now. Reaching 15 homers and 15 steals wouldn’t be out of the question in a full season, and with his on-base ability, he has the potential to score runs in bunches in the Rangers’ potent lineup.

The big question, of course, is what the Rangers will do with Profar when Kinsler is healthy. As the Twins have shown with Oswaldo Arcia—and which I predicted in this column three weeks ago—there are ways to get a talented player into the lineup on a full-time basis merely by using him to give the regulars days off. I certainly could see the Rangers following this model.

Another option would be to trade him to fill a need elsewhere, such as in the outfield or the rotation. Both Elvis Andrus and Kinsler are locked up for years and, on a pure baseball level, Profar has more value to other teams as a shortstop than he has to the Rangers as a second baseman/utility man. Every team wants an above-average defensive shortstop who can hit; the Rangers just happen to have one already.

Of course, the Rangers could just send him back down to Triple-A. After all, the kid is only 20 years old. If he doesn’t perform in the majors until Kinsler returns, it would be easily justifiable, and even practical, to send him back down. If he does perform, as I fully expect he will, the Rangers will have a very nice problem on their hands.

So why, with all the questions about his potential playing time, am I recommending owners in standard mixed leagues pick him up? It all comes down to a philosophical belief of mine regarding fantasy sports. My response to a question I received on Twitter regarding Profar sums it up nicely:



I can’t tell you whether Profar will be back in Triple-A three weeks from now. I can’t tell you if he’s ready for the majors. What I can tell you is that you do not win fantasy leagues if you are not willing to take risks. This used to be my Achilles’ heel in fantasy.

I was just not willing to take chances, and I always overvalued the players on my roster because I so badly wanted them to all be awesome. As a result, I perennially finished anywhere between third and sixth in my long-running, 12-team home league. I almost always made the playoffs, but I never won. It took me years to figure out why.

Not everyone on your roster is awesome. Jurickson Profar could be. Just go add him already.

Scott Strandberg lives in Norman, OK with his cat, Bea. He is a musician by night and a writer by day. In addition to writing for THT Fantasy, Scott writes for MLBDepthCharts and co-hosts the MLBDepthCharts Fantasy Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @scottstrandberg.

<< Return to Article AL Central: state of the division from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

AL Central: state of the division

by Chris Jaffe
May 20, 2013

image

It’s a quarter the way through the year, and how is the AL Central doing so far?

Well, they’re in the running for baseball’s most improved division. Heading into Sunday’s action (all info in this article is prior to Sunday’s games, unless stated otherwise), the entire AL Central has a combined record of 104-97, putting the division on pace for its first winning record since 2008 and it’s best overall record since 2006. If you exclude games pitting AL Central teams against each other, the division is 67-60. The AL Central can thank the AL West for its high marks so far, as the Central is 32-19 against the West.

What’s most striking about the division is how tightly packed all five teams are. Just five games separate first from last. That’s smaller than the lead the AL West leading Rangers have on the runner-up A's. Five games is less than the gap between the AL East’s cellar-dwelling Jays and fourth-place Rays, while nearly a third of the teams in baseball have a worse record than the AL Central’s last-place squad.

So, it’s a tightly packed division full of solid, though not spectacular, performances so far. This just might be a hard-fought race for the division title all season long. Let’s look a bit more in-depth, team-by-team.

Cleveland Indians


So far, the Cleveland Indians are the most improved team in the AL’s most improved division. After a horrible 94-loss 2012 season, the Indians are in first place at the quarter post with a 24-17 record. It’s a nice turnaround, but Cleveland fans can be forgiven if they are still cautiously skeptical. They were in first place last year at this time, too, and then fell apart.

Well, last year Cleveland’s hot start was done with smoke and mirrors; they were outscored on the season, even when the Tribe was standing in first. That ain’t the case this year, as Cleveland is above average in run scoring and run prevention.

The Indians' offense has been a real juggernaut so far. They are first in the AL in slugging percentage, second in homers, third in on-base percentage, fourth in doubles, triples, and batting average—yeah, they are hitting pretty darn well. In fact, their team OPS+ is a comically high 121.

Strangely, Cleveland ranks just sixth in runs scored, though. It isn’t as bad as it sounds, as there is a tight pack at the top. If you shift to runs per game, the Indians are tied for third in the AL. Still, to date their bats have been at their worst when it matters most, with lousy numbers when batting in close-and-late situations, as well as when the bases are loaded. Odds are that should improve as the year goes on. Then again, they won’t keep a 121 OPS+ all season long.

Aside from hitting, the Indians' other big strength has been their bullpen. Their main five relievers are all getting the job done. In 78 outings, Chris Perez, Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, Joe Smith, and Rich Hill have a 1.96 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning. Granted, there are plenty of unearned runs there, but even adjusting for that fact, you have 2.64 runs allowed per nine innings by the bullpen’s core.

The only thing preventing Cleveland from running away with the division is its starting rotation, and more specifically, the back of their rotation. Justin Masterson and Zach McAllister have been dynamite at the top of the rotation, but the rest of the starters have been dreck. The non-Masterson/McAllister starters have averaged barely five innings per start while posting a 5.67 ERA. It’s a good thing the bullpen has been so good because three times out of five, the club really needs the relievers to save things.

Oh, and last but not least, Cleveland also has been aided by stellar defense, as their defensive efficiency is tops in the league. As bad as the back half of the rotation has been, it could be much worse if the gloves behind them weren’t limiting the number of hits opposing teams got against them. Position players and relievers are giving Cleveland a strong chance to win the division this year.

Detroit Tigers


The Tigers are supposed to win the division, and they very easily could, as they’re clearly in the mix of things.

This Detroit squad is pretty similar to last year’s team. The offense still is anchored heavily by Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. However, the lineup still has some gaping holes at DH and catcher. Overall, the team leads the league in runs scored—and hits, batting average, and on-base percentage—but then again, Comerica Park is playing like an extreme hitters' park so far. Baseball-Reference.com gives it a one-year park factor of 117. Thanks Coors Field copy-cat.

I have no idea what to make of this factor, as Comerica Park isn’t generally considered a hitters' park, let alone a whacky, crazy bat-rific type place.

Detroit’s fielding is still a sore spot; however, it has improved. Instead of being the worst defense in the league (as it was last year), now it’s merely among the worst defenses in the league. Hey, you take your progress where you can find it. (To be fair, the Tigers have a nice fielding average but are pretty bad going by defensive efficiency and total zone. WAR lists their defense as replacement-level).

The starting pitching, on the other hand, is fantastic. Heck, as I write this, uber-ace Justin Verlander has just the third-best ERA in the rotation behind Anibal Sanchez and Doug Fister. That isn’t likely to continue, but it’s the case so far. Max Scherzer is also pitching pretty well. Their numbers are that much more impressive when you figure they prevent runs despite the gloves behind them.

The bullpen in Detroit is truly feast of famine. Like Cleveland, Detroit has a solid core of five relievers, as Jose Valverde, Drew Smyly, Darin Downs, Joaquin Benoit, and Al Alburquerque have combined for a 2.11 ERA in 71 outings. Damn shame for Detroit this is the 2010s and not the 1980s, and teams now use more than five relievers. The rest of the bullpen has an ERA north of 7.00 in nearly 40 outings. So, yeah, that hurts.

Looking at this team, you’d expect it to have a better record than a few ticks over .500, but they’ve lost four of six extra-inning games. That ties for the most extra-inning contests and losses by any AL squad so far.

Random note: reliever Alburquerque has a line unlike anyone else. He’s faced 69 batters so far and walked 13 while fanning 26. A majority of people never put the ball in play against him.

Kansas City Royals


For about a month, 2013 looked like it might be the start of something special for the Royals as they won 17 of their first 27. In a break with all recent tradition, they stood in first place in early May. Since then, they’ve reverted to form, dropping nine of their next dozen and are in danger of soon falling under .500.

Their successes have come from pitching and defense, and their failures from hitting. Aside from Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and Lorenzo Cain, they have no batting threats to speak of.

That’s an understatement, as they have a brutally bad offensive infield. KC'sstarting second and third basemen are hitting under .200, and the shortstop has an empty .252 average. First baseman Eric Hosmer is the only one with an on-base percentage over .300, and he’s barely over it (.320) and is posting an even lower slugging percentage (.313). That’s what you’d expect from a utility infielder, not an everyday first baseman. (Hosmer is also their usual cleanup hitter, and KC vies with Houston for worst production in all baseball from the No. 4 slot.)

On the bright side, the Royals are last in the AL in batter strikeouts. And they’re great on the bases, 30 for 35 in stolen base opportunities. But they still need to figure out a way to steal first.

But Kansas City can pitch. James Shields, Ervin Santana, and Jeremy Guthrie all rank in the top 12 in the AL in ERA, with marks of 2.45, 2.77, and 2.82, respectively. They’ve only used seven relievers all year, and most of them have been pretty damn good. In fact, they are second only to Oakland in bullpen ERA.

Chicago White Sox


The Sox have gotten off to a rocky start. Things have improved for them over the last week, putting them in spitting distance of .500, but if you need a good week to get near .500 early in the season, odds are things aren’t quite going according to plan.

The team lost starting rotation stalwart Gavin Floyd to injury for the year, the bullpen has had some shaky moments, and half of their offense has been a giant black hole of suck. Yet there is a silver lining to this dark cloud for the Sox.

First, as bad as things have gone, they’re still just barely under .500. Five games back with 121 left to play isn’t so bad. Second, this is as bad as they’re going to play all year. It’s hard to imagine them doing much worse.

Just look at Chicago's lineup for a second. At least half of the hitters are replacement level or worse on the season. Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Jeff Keppinger, and Tyler Flowers all have been duds at the plate. Shortstop Alexei Ramirez has a nice batting average but not much more. So far, their entire infield has been even worse than Kansas City’s bunch. And due to injuries, fringe player DeWayne Wise has started in the outfield in almost half of the team's games.

The White Sox just can’t keep hitting this poorly. I’m not saying they’ll be good, but just a less malignant form of bleach. Some guys should improve a bit as the year goes on. Konerko is a decent bet to thurn things around, though he’s unlikely to revert to his prime. Some guys will lose playing time if they keep hitting this poorly. That’s clearly the case with Keppinger, who should find his way to the bench when Gordon Beckham returns from the DL.

Their offense clearly isn’t good and won’t be good, but it might be able to improve from 13th in the AL in runs scored.

Chicago has hung in the race so far despite their woeful hitting due to some typically solid starting pitching. Right now four Sox starters are having good years, with Chris Sale and Jake Peavy both having great seasons. John Danks should return from the DL soon, and, if healthy, should shore up the bottom of the rotation.

It’s funny. Had I written this review a week earlier, it would be a much darker take on the Sox. They were in last place and on pace for a 65-97 season. But in the 2013 AL Central, it takes just a brief winning streak to change things around. They’re still a pretty bad bet to win the division.

They depend on really great pitching, Peavy is always an injury risk, some of their other starting pitchers may fall off the pace, and Danks might not be fully healthy. But it looks like the Sox will be able to hang in there for a while.

Minnesota Twins


Aren’t the Twins supposed to be horrible? They were in 2011-12, dropping 195 games in the past two years. Now, they’re around .500 and were over .500 until a recent slump knocked them back. They’re still break-even in nine-inning contests but have had problems in extra-inning games.

Minnesota only has one bat worth fearing, but my God is it ever fearsome. Joe Mauer is hitting north of .350 with a rather unusual 17:2 ratio of doubles to homers.

However, while the Twins don’t have as many threats in their offense as Kansas City, the lows aren’t as bad as you might guess. Several of Minnesota’s non-Mauer hitters are still decent, and the club’s two main bench players, Oswaldo Arcia and Eduardo Escobar, have been very good.

Traditionally, the strengths of a pitching staff under manager Ron Gardenhire are control and the bullpen, and that’s the case this year. Minnesota is second in the league in fewest walks allowed. The bullpen has been very good, posting an overall ERA of 3.21. While it’s only the third-best bullpen ERA in the division, it’s also the fifth-best in the league.

The starting pitchers, however, can’t strike a person out. In a rather amazing fact for the 21st century, only one of the Twins' main five starting pitchers is averaging better than a strikeout every two innings, and that guy just barely (Pedro Hernandez has 15 strikeouts in 28 innings). Closer Glen Perkins leads the club with 23 strikeouts, a total that puts him tied for 76th in the AL.

The Twins are 12th in the league in ERA and 10th in runs scored. I don’t know how they stand only five games back, but I assume it won’t last.

Summing up


Really, all of these teams have their strengths, but all also clearly are flawed. Whichever squad can do the best job plugging up its holes should end up taking the division. This is one division in which a GM should consider making a trade sooner rather than later if he wants to win this year. That’s especially true for Detroit, Cleveland, and perhaps Kansas City.

References and Resources
Baseball-Reference.com provided the numbers. I received some help from friends (and AL Central fans) Mike Webber (a lifelong Royals fan), former Twins blogger Will Young, and THT's very own business expert and Tigers rooter, Brian Borawski.

History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. Oh, and now he's on twitter.

<< Return to Article Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 8, Vol. 1 from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 8, Vol. 1

by Karl de Vries
May 20, 2013

Okay, so Denard Span and Will Venable have done basically nothing in the days since we had them on the waiver wire, though I remain optimistic that both will see their ownership levels rise as the next few weeks unfold. Meanwhile, our old friend Patrick Corbin continues his ridiculously hot start to the season, even if a major market correction looms, while Yonder Alonso has seen his ownership levels droop slightly despite maintaining a decent batting average.

But that’s in the past. Let’s talk about some fresh faces as we kick off Week 8 on the waiver wire.

David Phelps | New York Yankees | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership; 4 percent ESPN; 38 percent CBS
YTD: 42.1 IP / 3.64 FIP / 9.78 K/9 / 3.83 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 134 IP / 4.06 FIP / 8.33 K/9 / 3.45 BB/9


Every team should be as fortunate to have a Phelps among its pitching corps, and no, I’m not being facetious. Having aided the team’s October run late last summer, Phelps, 26, now finds himself a member of the starting rotation, having posted a 1-1 record with a 2.84 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over four starts. On Saturday, Phelps neutralized the (albeit struggling) Blue Jays, allowing just one earned run over seven strong innings.

That performance continued what’s been a strong major league career so far for Phelps, who’s been a strikeout-per-inning pitcher since his debut last year and has been stingy yielding free passes throughout his professional tenure.

Granted, his current strikeout penchant is not supported by an ability to generate swinging strikes, which portends a drop there, and the career 4.12 FIP is probably closer to Phelps’ future as a back-of-the-rotation guy rather than the savior he’s been over his past few outings. But why carp? A guy who can pitch competently on a first-place team is a no-brainer add in mixed leagues, right?

Not so fast, because the question about Phelps’ fantasy value has less to do with his ability to be a decent major league starter than it does whether he’s the best option at the Yankees’ disposal when Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda get back.

We’ll start with Nova, who looked primed to return last week from a triceps injury, only to suffer a setback with an injury to his side during an extended spring training game, and it’s currently unclear when he’ll return to active duty.

Pineda, of course, is still recovering from that awful labrum injury he suffered last year, and although he’s throwing again (and reportedly hit 95 mph on the radar gun earlier this month), the Yankees don’t expect him back until mid-June at the earliest.

Long story short, neither Nova or Pineda is coming back soon enough to prevent Phelps from making at least a few more starts, and frankly, their return might not be enough to squeeze him out of the rotation anyway. We’ll find out for sure as they get healthy, but in the meantime, I think Phelps will provide solid fantasy help across the board, making him a worthy pickup in deeper leagues.

Recommendation: Can contribute in standard mixed leagues.

Jake Odorizzi | Tampa Bay Rays | SP | 7 percent Yahoo ownership; .1 percent ESPN; 24 percent CBS
YTD: N/A
ZiPS updated: N/A


The fantasy world held its breath last week when Rays ace and reigning Cy Young Award winner David Price went down with what’s being described as a right triceps injury. On the surface, that doesn’t sound too bad, but his fastball had lost velocity from last year, and there’s speculation that the company line is merely a cover for a far more serious ailment. Time will ultimately tell, but in the meantime, it’s probably prudent to wave bye-bye to Price for at least the next few weeks.

In his place comes 23-year-old Odorizzi, a key part of both the 2010 trade that sent Zack Greinke to Milwaukee and the offseason James Shields/Wil Myers deal last year. Boasting a fastball, curve, slider and changeup, Odorizzi appeared on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list in each of the past three years, and came up for two starts last year in Kansas City.

He’s considered a good, not great, prospect, though he was off to a nice start in Triple-A this year, posting a 4-0 record over eight starts with a 3.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a 9.5 K/9. A former first-round draft pick, Odorizzi seems primed for a solid major league career, even if his ceiling has more in common with a mid-rotation role than an ace’s responsibility.

That being said, it seems he’ll have an opportunity to make his mark as Joe Maddon says Odorizzi will gobble up Price’s starts while he’s on the shelf. In Week 8, that makes him a two-start option as Odorizzi prepares to face the hapless Blue Jays in Toronto this afternoon, and, barring disaster, the Yankees at home on Sunday.

Those aren’t impossible matchups for the neophyte, but they’re not exactly charitable foes, either, so while I’m interested to see how Odorizzi does this week, I’m not sure a sense of urgency surrounds him outside of the deepest mixed leagues in which his two starts are absolutely necessary.

Recommendation: Pass in mixed leagues until he pads his resume.

Raul Ibanez | Seattle Mariners | OF/DH | 8 percent Yahoo ownership; 8 percent ESPN; 12 percent CBS
YTD: 94 PA / .236 / .277 / .562 with 8 HR and 0 SB
ZiPS updated: 404 PA / .237 / .287 / .456 with 20 HR and 1 SB


By the time May dawned, the soon-to-be 41-year-old Ibanez, hitting just .158 at the time, was a fantasy corpse, an afterthought in all but the deepest AL-only leagues. But as the weather heated up, so did Ibanez’s bat, and after helping the Mariners tie up Saturday’s game with a home run against the Indians’ Chris Perez, Ibanez has suddenly seen his ownership pick up thanks to a month that, entering Sunday’s action, had him bashing to a .375 average with six home runs and a ridiculous 1.425 OPS.

Anyone who tuned in to the ALDS between the Yankees and Orioles knows that Ibanez still can provide help on a baseball diamond, and he managed to hammer 19 home runs with 62 RBIs last year. But while the past few weeks have reminded us that Ibanez can still provide fantasy help, it’s important to remember that he’s basically a platoon player in Seattle, splitting time with Jason Bay.

In Week 8, the Mariners will face no fewer than three lefties (Scott Kazmir, C.J. Wilson and Derek Holland), which more or less neutralizes Ibanez's bat fantasy-wise in the immediate future. Players like Ibanez are definitely useful while they’re hot, and I have nothing against salvaging old parts to help the fantasy war effort (right, Travis Hafner?). But I’m going to pass on picking him up right now.

Recommendation: Strictly AL-only league material.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

<< Return to Article Louisville slugging in 2013 from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Louisville slugging in 2013

by Frank Jackson
May 20, 2013

Sometime during the 2013 season, a professional baseball player will reach a significant milestone. Unless you live in Louisville, you probably won’t read about it when it happens. And even there, it won’t be headline news. That’s because it concerns a minor league player by the name of Mike Hessman.

If the name sounds vaguely familiar, it might be because he has played parts of five seasons in the major leagues. Put all the games together, however, and they don’t add up to one full-time season. So if Hessman is not a career minor leaguer, he’s pretty close to being one.

During spring training in Florida some years ago, Hessman autographed a 2003 Upper Deck MVP card for me. Since filing the card away in the archives, I hadn’t given him much thought. So imagine my surprise to find out that he’s on the verge of hitting his 400th professional home run.

Of that total, only 14 have been at the big league level, so his 386th minor league home run will be his 400th professional home run. He leads all active minor leaguers in career home runs (378 as I write this; including the 14 he hit at the major league level, that makes 392 for his pro career).

In olden days, when career minor leaguers were more common, this achievement would be a tad less noteworthy. Nowadays, extensive minor league careers are rare. Of course, all but a very few major leaguers start out there, and a lot of them return there, not so much to make a career out of it but in the hopes that some day they will be tapped on the shoulder to return to the Show.

By and large, minor league ball is a means to an end (namely, the majors) and not an end in itself. There are a lot of reasons why a player would want to prolong a major league career; the motivation to prolong a minor league career is much less.

Consequently, Hessman’s total looms much larger on the minor league charts than it would on the major league leader board. In fact, given the shorter minor league season, it is understandable that no minor leaguer has ever hit 500 home runs, which was a sure ticket to Cooperstown for major league sluggers in the pre-steroid era.

In a sense, Hessman is the minor league equivalent of Dave Kingman. He exists to hit home runs. Hessman is built along the same lines as Kingman (6-foot-5, 215 pounds versus Kingman’s 6-foot-6, 210 pounds), and so is his lifetime batting average (Hessman .231 in the minors; Kingman .236 in the majors).

Not surprisingly, Hessman also strikes out a lot. Here he has the edge over Kingman, who struck out a “mere” 1,816 times during his MLB career. At 2,100 and counting, Hessman is way ahead of Sky King.

That strikeout total may be even more impressive than his home run total. Of course, you’d have to be a pretty decent hitter to hang around long enough to strike out that much. If you’re a productive hitter when you’re not striking out, you likely will maintain your roster spot for a long time. Plenty of contact hitters have come and gone since Hessman arrived on the scene.

Drafted by the Braves in the 15th round (452nd pick overall) of the 1996 draft, Hessman, fresh out of high school in Santa Ana, Cal., signed a contract on June 17, then made his professional premiere at age 18 with the Gulf Coast (Rookie) League Braves.

Despite a less-than-promising season (a .216 average and just one home run in 190 at-bats), Hessman was promoted to Macon in the Class A Sally League in 1997. The results there (21 homers, 74 RBIs, and .235) were better and, as it turned out, fairly typical of his early minor league career. As the back of my autographed card notes, “He has averaged 22.5 home runs per year as he has progressively worked his way up the organizational ladder.”

That doesn’t qualify as a meteoric rise, but it does certify Hessman as a power hitter. The card also predicted, “He is expected to get a serious look in Atlanta before the year is over.” Sure enough, on Aug. 22, 2003, at age 25, he made his big league debut with a pinch-hitting appearance against the Rockies at Coors Field. Four days later at Atlanta, he hit his first big league home run, a ninth inning pinch-hit against the Mets’ Mike Stanton.

Between 2003 and 2010, Hessman served played parts of five seasons with the Braves, Tigers, and Mets. He never got more than 69 at-bats in any one season and amassed a career total of 14 home runs in the majors. In between his major league experience, he was logging time, for the most part, in Triple-A ball.

The high point of his minor league career was the five years (2005-2009) he spent with the Toledo Mud Hens. In fact, his worst and best years were back-to-back. If they had a Comeback Player of the Year award in the International League, Hessman would have won it.

After a dismal 2006 (a batting average of just .165, though 24 of his 57 hits were home runs), he came back in 2007 with 31 homers and 101 RBIs and was voted the MVP of the International League—so Upper Deck’s including him in the MVP series proved to be prescient!

Combined with his stats during his tenure with Detroit that year, he had 35 homers and 113 RBIs. He only hit nine home runs for the Tigers during two stints with them in 2007 and 2008, but he remains the Toledo Mud Hens’ all-time home run leader with 140.

In 2008, Hessman took off a month to play for the United States Olympic team that won the bronze medal in Beijing. Despite the lengthy absence, he managed to hit 34 home runs for Toledo. Combined with the five home runs he hit for the Tigers, he had 39 for the year, his best-ever total. And if you throw in the one home run he hit during the Olympics (technically, of course, it was not professional competition), he had an even 40 for the year.

In 2012, at age 34 with Oklahoma City of the Pacific Coast League, Hessman had his best Triple-A home run season with 35. This year he is back in Triple-A, but with the Louisville Bats of the International League.

The Bats are the Triple-A affiliate of the Cincinnati Reds, who are not likely to need Hessman’s services as they contend for the National League Central title. Still, Hessman is a corner infielder (in the past he also played the outfield), so if Joey Votto or Todd Frazier goes down with an injury, it is possible Hessman could be called up.

As a September call-up, he could be a handy pinch-hitter for a contending team like the Reds. But I’m guessing that when he hits his 400th home run as a pro, it will be in a Louisville Bats uniform. Since the Bats play at Louisville Slugger Field, surely the Hillerich & Bradsby people, headquartered just blocks away, will find some way to link up with Hessman’s quest.

I have no idea if Hessman has any personal goals, but he is approaching the all-time top 10 minor league home run hitters. To wit:

Jack Graham 384
Jack Pierce 395
Bobby Prescott 398
Joe Hauser 399
Merv Connors 400
Nick Ullop 420
Buzz Arlett 432
Andres Mora 440
Nelson Barrera 457
Hector Espino 484

Hessman is a good bet to catch Graham in 2013. If he comes back next year, the next four names on the list are also within reach.

At age 35, Hessman is also likely to reach 400, and he has an outside shot—if he stays healthy and if he can keep convincing major league teams to reserve a spot for him at Triple-A ball—to become the all-time leader. The independent minor leagues might be an option if he can get within striking distance—and if he can handle the long bus rides.

Granted, Mike Hessman pursuing Hector Espino isn’t Henry Aaron chasing the Babe, but I have to think a minor league veteran on a quest to break an all-time record would put a few extra fans in the stands as he gets closer to his goal.

For my part, I’m going to check in now and then with the Louisville Bats’ web site to see how he’s progressing. And next season, if he’s still playing, in Louisville or wherever, I’ll keep checking.

Granted, Triple-A ball is not major league ball, but the dimensions of the ballparks are not appreciably different. And as Gertrude Stein might have said, “A long ball is a long ball is a long ball.”

And as the years go by, that frequent flyer mileage adds up.

Frank Jackson has published previous baseball articles in National Pastime and Elysian Fields Quarterly. He was weaned on baseball at Connie Mack Stadium.

<< Return to Article 5,000 days since Eric Milton’s no-hitter from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

5,000 days since Eric Milton’s no-hitter

by Chris Jaffe
May 20, 2013



History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. Oh, and now he's on twitter.

<< Return to Article The daily grind: 5-17-13 from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The daily grind: 5-17-13

by Brad Johnson
May 17, 2013

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.


Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): Jeanmar Gomez is the best available starter today, which is not a good thing.

Pitcher (bum): However, there are plenty of bad starters to sift through.

Jordan Lyles, Rick Porcello, Vance Worley, and Burch Smith all look particularly exploitable. In addition to those names, Brandon Maurer is opposed by Ubaldo Jimenez in a probable slugfest.

Hitter (power): Lucas Duda has a nice match-up against Edwin Jackson.

Garrett Jones will see Lyles while Daniel Nava will face Worley.

The Giants seem to directing some frustration at Brandon Belt despite solid performance. I expect Brett Pill to see starts against lefties, although I suppose we'll find out tonight.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain has a solid match-up against Jarrod Parker.

Chris Denorfia should start against Gio Gonzalez.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): I would usually recommend Hector Santiago, Marco Estrada and Justin Grimm, but they face the Angels, Cardinals, and Tigers respectively. So I'm avoiding them.

I mention them because I can't point at anybody else without it being a pure gamble. If you want that gamble pick anyway, it's Juan Nicasio against the Giants. But don't credit/blame me for the results.

Pitcher (bum): Joe Blanton has looked lost at times this season. The White Sox aren't a difficult match-up, but they're good enough to cause trouble.

Erik Bedard has yet to settle in this season. He's been unusually prone to walks and home runs—a bad combination.

Chris Capuano has a tough assignment against the Braves.

The Orioles are throwing the always talented TBA.

Hitter (power): Ervin Santana gives up some home runs, which makes it a good day for Seth Smith and Brandon Moss.

Brandon Belt ought to be owned more frequently than 33 percent. A game against Nicasio is likely to help his numbers.

Chris Johnson should like batting against Capuano.

Jonny Gomes finally sees a mid-tier lefty - Scott Diamond

Hitter (speed): Eric Young Jr. or Charlie Blackmon against Tim Lincecum might produce a steal or two.

Noteworthy news


Word on the street is that expanded replay could hit the shelves as early as 2014. The game will be poorer for it. You can't tell, but that was biting sarcasm.

Weather watch


Minnesota, Atlanta, and Chicago have possible thunderstorms in the forecast.


Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

<< Return to Article And That Happened from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

And That Happened

by Craig Calcaterra
May 17, 2013



Craig writes the HardballTalk blog for NBC Sports.com

<< Return to Article Gems without whiffs from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Gems without whiffs

by James Gentile
May 17, 2013

I had initially planned to use my time today to write about the immediate effects of games where pitchers have racked up unusually high pitch counts. But after running my initial queries on the highest pitch count games of the past decade, I became distracted by some of the data from one game in particular.

As it turns out, Livan Hernandez gave us the highest pitch count from a single game in the past ten years, throwing 150 pitches against the Florida Marlins back in 2005. A handful of pitchers have rivaled that total since 2002, including Edwin Jackson's 149 pitch no-hitter, eight-walker from just a few years ago. Hard-nosed, flame-throwing strikeout beasts like Randy Johnson, Jason Schmidt and Kerry Wood all topped 140 pitches at one point or another in the last decade, yet remarkably it was the crafty soft-tossing Livan Hernandez who managed to reach this milestone on four separate occasions since 2002.

But something about Livan's 150-pitch game really intrigued me.

We all know that Livan was never feared for his ability to carve through lineups racking up tremendous strikeout totals. He was in many ways the quintessential 'finesse' pitcher, relying on pitch-to-contact philosphies-- forcing the hitters off-balance, keeping the ball in the park, and handing out no free-passes, etc.

But even by Livan's standards, his gargantuan 150-pitch game was remarkably lacking in any sort of whiffability:

Highest pitch counts since 2002






































































































Pitcher Date Team PC IP BFP Swinging Strikes
Livan Hernandez 06/03/05 WAS 150 9.0 37 1
Randy Johnson 07/31/02 ARI 149 9.0 38 33
Edwin Jackson 06/25/10 ARI 149 9.0 36 17
Livan Hernandez 07/31/05 WAS 145 8.0 35 12
Jason Schmidt 05/18/04 SFN 144 9.0 30 18
Livan Hernandez 09/11/04 MON 143 6.3 33 7
Kerry Wood 05/10/03 CHN 141 7.0 29 15
Livan Hernandez 06/27/04 MON 141 7.0 34 9
Mark Redman 07/06/03 FLO 140 9.0 36 12
Randy Johnson 06/05/02 ARI 140 8.0 29 25


Yes, that's correct. Livan threw 150 pitches that evening and only one of them went passed a swinging bat. Originally brought to my attention by Jason Wojciechowski, this feat seemed to me nothing short of amazing for a number of reasons.

1. How does a major league pitcher throw 150 pitches with just one whiff?
2. How does a major league pitcher throw 150 pitches with just one whiff and hold the opposition to just two runs over nine innings?

So I decided to dig deeper and hunt down the greatest games of the modern era with the fewest swing-and-misses. Since 1988, when pitch count data is first available to Retrosheet, there have been five games where a pitcher threw at least 100 pitches without a swinging strike and did not surrender a run. In three of those bizarre outings, the pitcher went the full nine for a complete game shutout:

Greatest whiffless games


















































































































































Pitcher Date PC IP BFP SwStr K NIBB H BABIP RA
Derek Lowe 05/15/12 127 9.0 33 0 0 4 6 0.207 0
Scott Erickson 04/28/02 124 9.0 32 0 0 2 4 0.133 0
Jeff Ballard 08/21/89 112 9.0 33 0 0 0 7 0.226 0
Christian Friedrich 06/04/12 113 7.0 26 0 4 2 4 0.211 0
Casey Fossum 04/28/06 106 6.0 27 0 2 5 3 0.167 0
Steve Trachsel 05/28/07 104 9.0 33 0 0 3 5 0.167 1
Darrell May 07/19/03 108 8.0 30 0 2 4 3 0.087 1
Steve Karsay 04/14/94 100 8.0 31 0 3 2 5 0.208 1
Bruce Chen 09/23/11 102 8.0 27 0 4 1 2 0.048 1
Tom Glavine 04/28/93 101 8.0 35 0 0 6 5 0.179 1


Just last season veteran sinker-baller Derek Lowe went the distance for the Cleveland Indians without giving up a run or producing one singular swing and a miss. Derek recently made headlines by blaming the rise of sabermetrics in front offices for keeping him out of baseball this year. Lowe has never profiled as a particularly FIP-friendly type of a pitcher, but he's had plenty of success at the big league level. I am almost certain he would love to cite this particular FIP-defying performance from last May if he ever makes good on his promise to accost Voros McCraken*.

The whiffless gems Scott Erickson and Jeff Ballard are equally impressive, but I'll admit it was Christian Friedrich's slightly inferior seven-inning outing against the Diamondbacks last season that really caught my eye in this table. In that outing on June fourth, Friedrich struck out four batters without a single whiff. Since 1988, only Vance Worley has managed to strike out more batters without missing a bat in his July 26 outing against the San Francisco Giants in 2011.

Perhaps not so surprisingly, one of the most celebrated 'cerebral' pitchers of the century also shows up on this list with a gem from 1993. Tom Glavine went eight strong innings for his Atlanta Braves, allowing just one run despite very uncharacteristically surrendering seven walks before leaving the mound that night.

Glavine was always able to find ways to get players out other than by missing bats, and it was a skill he carried well into the twilight of his career. Even in 2005 at the ripe old age of 39, when his swinging strike percentage dropped to one of the lowest marks of his career, Glavine still was able to post a hearty four Win season (per Baseball Reference).

In fact, among all pitcher seasons with at least 150 IP and a swinging strike rate below six percent, Glavine's WAR total for 2005 was one of more outstanding whiff-deficient seasons:

Best seasons** low swinging strike rates***
















































































# Name Year SwStr% WAR
1 Mike Mussina 2008 4.6 4.8
2 Ryan Drese 2004 5.4 4.7
3 Jeremy Guthrie 2010 5.5 4.3
4 Aaron Cook 2008 5.3 4.1
5 Ismael Valdez 2002 5.7 4
6 Tom Glavine 2005 5.8 3.9
7 Jon Garland 2007 5.8 3.7
8 Aaron Cook 2006 5.9 3.7
9 Carlos Silva 2004 4.5 3.7
10 Ricky Bones 1994 4.8 3.7


Glavine's 2005 season shows up at number six, and his 2001 season just misses the top ten with an impressive 3.4 WAR.

It is really no surprise that we see Mike Mussina's terrific finale in 2008 at the top of the list. Mussina, famously, is one of the few cases in baseball history where a pitcher re-learned the art of pitching as he lost velocity with age. Part of that late-career adjustment involved learning to get by without nearly as many whiffs, but if we remember from just a few weeks ago, in 2008 Mussina made up for a lack of swinging strikes with the highest called strike percentage on record (presumably on the unrivaled framing strengths of Jose Molina).

One last thing


When we look at the best seasons for pitchers with low swinging strike rates, there is something that jumps out at me as rather odd. Nine of the top ten seasons by WAR have occurred in the last decade. The lone exception is Ricky Bones 1994 season (which also happens to be Ricky's career high). What exactly does that mean?

Why have the 2000s been kinder to these pitchers with outrageously low swinging strike rates than the 1990s?

These pitch-to-contact sinkerball-types like Jon Garland, Aaron Cook, and Carlos Silva are not new to the game of baseball. Pitchers of this genre have arguably been the bread-and-butter of the major leagues since the game began. Yet for some reason their ilk have had more of these successful seasons in recent years than before the turn of the century.

In fact from 2004 to 2008 this type of pitcher became particularly popular compared to past seasons. In 2008 we saw 14 of these pitchers rack up at least 150 innings, far more than any other season in recent history:

image

With the rise of Moneyball, sabermetrics, and DIPS theory, the number of full-time pitch-to-contact pitchers has actually gone up. I'll let you think about that as you enjoy your baseball this weekend.

* Lowe is quoted in another article as saying, "When you see this Voros guy, point him out to me. I want to talk to him." If I ever witnessed Derek Lowe badgering Voros McCraken about DIPS theory, I'm pretty sure that would be my life's zenith.

** I apologize here, but I'm still using the Baseball-Reference WAR totals before the recent replacement level change.

*** Also, I'm using the term swinging strike here and elsewhere in the article to mean "swing-and-miss" strikes only.

References and Resources
Thanks to Baseball Heat Maps, Retrosheet, and Baseball Reference.

James Gentile writes about baseball at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times. You can follow him on twitter @JDGentile

<< Return to Article 40th anniversary: Bobby Valentine breaks his leg from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

40th anniversary: Bobby Valentine breaks his leg

by Chris Jaffe
May 17, 2013



History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. Oh, and now he's on twitter.

<< Return to Article Strength of schedule: Adjusting hitter values from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Strength of schedule: Adjusting hitter values

by Moe Koltun
May 17, 2013

Strength of Schedule (SOS) is a concept usually reserved for discussions about football. That is largely because football has only 16 games per season, and therefore the variance between the easiest schedule and hardest schedule is quite large. Over a 162 game season, that disparity becomes much smaller, which is why now, 40 games into 2013, is the perfect time to gauge schedules in baseball—right now, there is a huge disparity between the best and worst quality of competition faced among specific players.

In fantasy baseball leagues, being aware of that disparity could lead to enormous advantages in valuing players much more accurately than your league mates, because at this point, strength of schedule just isn’t something the average baseball owner factors in. This week, I’m going to focus on the hitters with the best and worst SOS in certain metrics, and next week I will write up the pitchers.

Note: All of the data used in this article is from BaseballProspectus.com, and only includes hitters with a minimum of 75 Plate Appearances.

Nate McLouth, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and the rest of the Orioles lineup:
Baseball Prospectus has a metric called Opponent Slugging (oppSLG), which is the aggregate slugging average of all the pitchers faced against a hitter. The Orioles have nine of the top 20 performers in oppSLG so far this season. Basically, Baltimore as a team has faced pitchers who have given up an inordinately high slugging percentage so far this year, so all of the power-performances on the team must be taken with a slight grain of salt.

I still buy into Adam Jones, Chris Davis and even Nate McLouth as legitimate fantasy performers, but their power production pace might dwindle the rest of the year. That is particularly true in the cases of Chris Davis (11 HR, .659 SLG) J.J. Hardy (7 HR, .396 SLG) and Manny Machado (5 HR, .541 SLG).

The Blue Jays Lineup vs. the Tigers Lineup
At this point in the season, all of these opponent-gauging metrics seem to come in team-wide waves. One of those stats is Opponent On Base Percentage (oppOBP), which measures the aggregate On Base Percentage of all of the pitchers a batter has faced for the year. The Blue Jays have six of the 10 lowest oppOBP’s in major league baseball, and nine of the bottom 18, whereas Detroit actually has six of the top seven performers in the statistic.

The truth of the matter is the Blue Jays have just faced one of the hardest pitching schedules in baseball so far this year, and the Tigers have faced one of the easiest. Players like Brett Lawrie, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Melky Cabrera have all been adversely affected by that fact, and players like Alex Avila, Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter have all been greatly helped by it.

For example, the difference between Lawrie’s oppOBP (.298) and Torii Hunter’s (.330) makes the 100 point disparity in their OBPs more understandable—Hunter has faced significantly worse competition than Lawrie.

While the ratio of how much oppOBP affects a player’s actual OBP isn’t one to one, a shrewd fantasy owner should acknowledge that it has some tangible effect and downgrade some of what Hunter has accomplished this year, while upgrading what Lawrie has done. Both oppOBP and oppSLG should be used as a general tool to modify a player’s value slightly rather than to overhaul it entirely.

Buy Low On: Buster Posey
Posey has managed a .286/.391/.508 triple slash so far this season. The most impressive part of that is certainly the slugging percentage, as Posey is among the bottom thirty in oppSLG. Most fantasy owners are disappointed that Posey only has 5 homers so far this year, but I think that number should spike the rest of the way and owners will be thoroughly satisfied. Posey has also both increased his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate, so he is maturing as a hitter plate discipline-wise despite some bad luck. Now is a prime opportunity to buy low on the guy who is still clearly the best catcher in Major League Baseball.

Sell High On: Coco Crisp
Coco Crisp is tied for the tenth highest oppOBP in baseball. The reason I’ve singled out Crisp from that list as a sell high candidate is that his skillset in particular benefits greatly from facing a lot of high on base allowing competition. Speed-first guys are extremely prone to having value inflation due to their fluky OBP’s, and Crisp seems like a prime example of that phenomenon.

See, stolen bases are all about opportunities, and logically, the more a player gets on base, the more opportunity they will have to steal bases. So not only did Crisp’s value get inflated in the form of a higher batting average, more runs, and a higher OBP, it also gets inflated (disproportionately so) because Crisp now has significantly more stolen bases than he normally would have up to this point in the season. I still like Crisp, but his pace of eight stolen bases in 25 games is completely unsustainable, and I’d project his .375 OBP to regress to around his career norm of .330. If you can still get top 50 player rater value for him, I would pull the trigger on moving Crisp.

Moe Koltun is a co-founder of RotoAnalysis.com and hosts the weekly RotoAnalysis Fantasy Sports Podcast. Follow him on Twitter @moeproblems.

<< Return to Article Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 7, Vol. III from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 7, Vol. III

by Jack Weiland
May 17, 2013

Baseball is funny. Fantasy baseball is especially funny.

Sometimes you're a quarter of the way into the season, all of your teams are in first place, all is right with the world, the sun in shining, the gods are smiling upon you, you're walking tall and feel like a million bucks, and then you happen to notice on twitter that David Price (a key cog on your dynasty team) felt something in his triceps, and then felt it again, and then came out of the game. And then seemingly all at once you think to yourself:

Oh god this is the worst thing that has ever happened to me, how could this happen to me? And to David? Poor, sweet David. I wonder if there's anything I can do to help. Would chicken noodle soup help? I have no idea, I'm not a doctor. It always makes me feel better, I guess. How would I even get chicken noodle soup to him? The mail? Delivery? Is he a spaghetti man? Egg noodles? Fusilli? THIS IS A COMPLETE DISASTER. TAKE ANYONE BUT POOR, SWEET DAVID. TAKE ME! TAKE. ME.

Like I said, baseball is funny.

Unfortunately for certain fantasy baseball writers (hey, that's me!) injuries are a part of the game, and they're part of what bring us together here. Dumpster diving is necessary because you always need a Plan B. Even if Plan A is David Price, who has been really durable and just plain great the entire time you've had him on your team. Plan B. You need one. Before we look at some potential Plan B guys today, let's recap a few of our past subjects.

Recent Waiver Wire honorees Mitch Moreland, James Loney, and Will Venable were all among the most added players on CBS this week. Each can provide value in the right circumstances (those circumstances being that you need help, and not a savior).

John Lackey continues to be a very useful pitcher, despite his tough start against the Rays this week, and is still owned in just 34 percent of CBS leagues. He's out there, and he's undervalued.

Matt Garza is making potentially his last rehab start as this is being written, and could rejoin the Cubs early next week.

Let's start today's coverage with Scott Kazmir, since nobody seems to be doing much of that these days.

Scott Kazmir | Cleveland Indians| SP | ESPN: 20.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 23 percent; CBS: 65 percent
YTD: 2-2, 5.33 ERA, 5.58 FIP, 3.87 xFIP in 25.1 innings pitched
ZiPS Projection: 4-7, 5.80 ERA in 73 innings pitched


Kazmir received all kinds of press last week after he spun a pair of gems against Minnesota and Oakland, and as a result was CBS' most added players last week, jumping from 22 percent to 64 percent. I'm not here to recommend him, though, for a few reasons:

1. He's still a pretty extreme flyball pitcher (getting just 36.5 percent groundballs right now) and one who has seen a career rate of 9.5 percent of them leave the yard. It's worth noting that his home run rate is more than twice his career average right now, so a likely drop in that will improve his 5.53 ERA and 5.58 FIP close to his xFIP of 3.87. But still, those are not great numbers.
2. His control has been better, but we're still just looking at a sample of 25.1 innings pitched, and I'm not ready to buy that he's made significant strides there.
3. Because he gets a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks, and because that gets his pitchcount high early, he has a tough time pitching deep into ballgames. In points leagues, this is a real problem.
4. His strand rate right now (82.2 percent) is high, even for a guy who strikes out as many batters as he does.

Recommendation: He's one of the hot topics this week, and his strikeout totals might be pretty at times, but my hunch is his ERA, walks, and lack of innings will make him much less useful to fantasy owners than he will be in real life to the Indians. There are better options available in your league right now. Pass.

Eric Chavez | Arizona Diamondbacks | 3B | ESPN: 1.8 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 5 percent; CBS: 7 percent
YTD: .310/.376/.536 in 94 plate appearances
ZiPS Projection: .284/.347/.480 in 262 plate appearances


Hey, remember this guy? Would you believe me if I told you he was still just 35 years old? (Yes? Okay, well, good. It wasn't a trick statement or anything, he's 35 years old).

Chavez has to be on everyone's short list for "most frustrating/sad career paths." From 2001-2006, in his Age 23-28 seasons, he racked up 29.1 wins above replacement, combing stellar defense with an offensive profile you dream about. He hit for average, he walked, he hit for power. He accrued plenty of runs and RBI and was just generally a fantasy monster. Then injuries set in. He missed half of 2007 and then played just 122 games combined over the following four seasons. Last year he got his health more or less in order (certainly by his standards, at least) and was able to play in 133 games for the Yankees. He wasn't the monster he once was, but Chavez was sneakily good for New York, putting up a .360 wOBA while posting a strong batting average, walk rate, and ISO.

This year, Chavez has been able to play in 29 of the Diamondbacks 41 games, and is mostly just sitting against lefties. When he's in the lineup, he's been hitting cleanup, and producing at the plate just like the good old days. He is quite literally the biggest injury wild card you could ever have, but his .387 wOBA is worth the gamble. If he stays healthy, this pickup could solidify a championship run. If he adds another in a long line of injuries, well, at least you gave it your best shot.

Recommendation: It's hard to believe a guy with an OPS north of .900 is so widely available at this point of the season, but it's likely the fantasy market isn't buying what Chavez is selling because it's been burned so many times before. Add him now and ride the wave.

Munenori Kawasaki | Toronto Blue Jays | 2B/SS | ESPN: 0.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 1 percent; CBS: 3 percent
YTD: .235/.337/.279 in 83 plate appearances
ZiPS Projection: .257/.311/.311 in 402 plate appearances


Let's be clear, this is pretty deep digging for fantasy purposes, and Kawasaki is not going to help you (like, at all) in terms of batting average or power. Now that we've gotten that out of the way, let's talk about what he can do, which is walk, steal bases, and potentially score runs when he's in the lineup (against right-handed pitching, mostly) while Jose Reyes is on the shelf.

In 83 plate appearances this year, Kawasaki has a very strong walk rate of 13.3 percent. There's a lot to like about his plate discipline numbers, including a very low O-Swing% of 18.7 percent, and an incredible contact rate of 94.4 percent. Essentially, he's not swinging at anything outside the zone, and is making contact with pretty much everything he does offer at. With the amount he's getting on base, he's been able to steal five bases, and has only been caught once.

Recommendation: Kawasaki is not a game breaker by any means, and his value will probably evaporate completely when Reyes returns, but in the short term he can provide some value to teams desperately needing middle infield help.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

<< Return to Article Card Corner: 1973 Topps: Mike Andrews from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Card Corner: 1973 Topps: Mike Andrews

by Bruce Markusen
May 17, 2013

Using a zoom lens from somewhere near the first base dugout, the Topps photographer has given us a nifty head-on view of a classic takeout slide at second base. The baserunner is burly Bob Oliver of the Royals, who appears to have made contact with Mike Andrews just as he is readying a relay throw to first base.

Will Andrews have enough time to make a strong throw to first, or will the impact of the 215-pound Oliver on Andrews’ knees upend the veteran middle infielder, forcing him to hold the ball while falling into a heap at second base? Those are some of the questions that come to mind while examining this photograph from a 1972 game in Kansas City.

As it turns out, this was the last card that Topps issued for Mike Andrews; he would never again play in the major leagues after the 1973 season. No one could have known at the time of this card’s release that Andrews would become embroiled in one of the most infamous World Series controversies of all time, an incident that would make an owner and his players mortal enemies. More on that nasty episode a little later in our program.

image
Andrews’ life in professional baseball began in 1961, when the Red Sox signed him as a free agent shortstop. The following summer, he reported to the town of Olean, the location one of the teams in the NY-Penn League, where he put up surprising power numbers. With 12 home runs and a .461 slugging percentage, Andrews established himself as a shortstop with a potent bat.

Earning a promotion to full-season Single-A ball in 1963, Andrews struggled so much at Winston-Salem that the Red Sox demoted him to Waterloo in midseason. Still, the Red Sox pushed him up to Double-A Reading in 1964. Andrews compiled an impressive .392 on-base percentage, though his power production fell off considerably. The Red Sox felt that he showed enough to earn a promotion to Triple-A Toronto.

Andrews hit poorly in his first go-round at Triple-A, but he bounced back in his second season at Toronto. The parent Red Sox decided to move Andrews to second base, a position to which he adjusted smoothly. With 14 home runs and 89 walks, he proved himself worthy of a spot on the Red Sox’ Opening Day roster in 1967.

The Sox opened the new season with Reggie Smith at second base, and Andrews in the role of a utility infielder. But Boston soon realized that Smith couldn’t play second base every day, so they moved him to center field, while clearing a spot on the middle infield for Andrews. The 23-year-old rookie emerged as a subtle contributor to Boston’s 1967 “Impossible Dream.” Though he hit only eight home runs and slugged .354, he drew 62 walks, reached base 34 per cent of the time, and showed himself to be a skilled bunter, with a league-leading 18 sacrifice hits. Andrews teamed with shortstop Rico Petrocelli to form one of the game’s most reliable double play combinations.

Somewhat strangely, Andrews did not start the first four games of the World Series against the Cardinals, instead giving way to veteran Jerry Adair. This repeated a lineup pattern that manager Dick Williams had used late in the regular season. Andrews finally received a start in Game Five. Perhaps Williams should have played Andrews sooner. Playing in the Series as a rookie, Andrews showed little fear of the game’s largest stage. He batted .308, collecting four hits in 13 at-bats, and laid down two more sacrifice bunts. In the field, he handled all of his chances at second base flawlessly.

Building on his successful rookie season, Andrews improved his game in 1968. He became more proficient at turning the double play, which had been the most difficult part of his transition to second base. While his power output remained the same, he showed more patience at the plate and improved his OPS by 24 points, a significant improvement in the Year of the Pitcher. While the Red Sox slumped, costing Dick Williams his job in midseason, Andrews still managed to draw some consideration for American League MVP.

Andrews drew praise from his teammates, both for his play on the field and his attitude in the clubhouse. “Mike is the key to the success of this team,” Sox outfielder Ken Harrelson told Boston beat writer Larry Claflin. “He’s our leader and I don’t care how young he is. He’s the most underrated player in the American League.”

In 1969, Andrews became a bit less underrated as the power finally arrived in his game.
Filling a role as the Sox’ leadoff man, Andrews hit 15 home runs for the season, drew close to a .400 slugging percentage, and lifted his OPS to .844. He also made his first All-Star Game while again picking up some consideration for league MVP.

But there was a downside. Unfortunately, Andrews was hit with a pitch thrown by Minnesota’s Dave Boswell on May 30. Andrews suffered a badly injured right hand, which forced him to miss nearly 40 days of action. Without Andrews in the lineup, the Red Sox struggled so badly that they fell out of the pennant race.

Andrews bounced back with a solid season in 1970, while appearing in a career-high 151 games. He matched his career high with 81 walks and achieved a personal best with 17 home runs. Given his play over the last three seasons, Andrews had established himself as one of the American League’s best all-round second basemen.

At the age of 26, Andrews should have been looking ahead toward a long tenure of prime seasons in Boston. The Red Sox had another plan in mind. One day after general manager Dick O’Connell claimed that Andrews was untouchable, the GM reversed course. Looking to reconfigure their infield, including a shift of Rico Petrocelli to third base, O’Connell traded Andrews and minor league infielder Luis Alvarado to the White Sox for veteran shortstop Luis Aparicio. The Red Sox planned to replace Andrews with a young Doug Griffin.

It was a strange trade, given that Aparicio was already 37. Loving his life in Boston, Andrews was crushed, as were many Red Sox fans. In contrast, the White Sox were thrilled with the deal. They watched Andrews hit for power and average, while compiling an OPS of .840. But he was also limited to 109 games because of a variety of injuries. His season came to an abrupt end on September 1, when he collided with Minnesota’s Harmon Killebrew and badly fractured his left wrist.

Andrews was never the same after the collision. Though he loved playing for Chuck Tanner in Chicago, he hit only .220 in 1972. He also led American League second basemen in errors. Then came 1973, the most tumultuous season of Andrews’ career. It was a year that would start with a significant chapter in the game’s labor/management history. While most fans have heard of the efforts of Dave McNally and Andy Messersmith, who would play the 1975 season under unsigned contracts in order gain free agency, not as many are aware of the role that Andrews played.

According to research done by writers Maxwell Kates and Stew Thornley, Andrews and three other White Sox veterans took a stand that spring. The four players refused to sign new contracts, instead reporting to training camp under automatically renewed contracts. In addition to Andrews, third baseman Ed Spiezio, onetime bonus baby Rick Reichardt, and veteran right-hander Stan Bahnsen also refused to sign their contracts.

Bahnsen eventually signed his new contract, but the other three refused, instead deciding to play under the renewed contracts with the idea that they would become free agents after the season. Unfortunately, the strategy did not proceed smoothly for the trio of Sox. The threesome soon became “free,” but not in the way that they would have liked. Andrews slumped as the White Sox’ first DH and then became upset when GM Stu Holcomb criticized him in the press, motivating Andrews to ask for his release.

Holcomb, a soccer executive who knew little about baseball, also released both Reichardt and Spiezio, making some skeptics wonder whether they were being punished for refusing to sign their contracts. If the Players’ Association had been as strong in 1973 as it is today, the White Sox’ front office might have faced a grievance. Such was not the case in 1973, in the days before arbitration, free agency, and McNally and Messersmith.

The release ended Spiezio’s career; he would fail to land another major league job. The other two players fared only slightly better. Reichardt signed on with the Royals, but didn’t capture the fancy of manager Jack McKeon, who released him in 1974.

As for Andrews, he managed to find work with a top-tier team, signing a mid-season contract with the A’s, the game’s defending World Champions.

The A’s soon discovered that their new infield acquisition was potentially damaged goods. A solid defensive player in past years, he could not even make a routine throw from his position at second base. Andrews claimed that his arm was fine. After watching him make two bad throws, Dick Williams (by now the manager of the A’s) announced that he would not use Andrews in the field anymore. Williams decided to restrict his new acquisition to pinch-hitting appearances and occasional use as a DH.

The A’s returned to the World Series in the fall of 1973, but Andrews’ participation in the Fall Classic would result only in bitter memories. A tight Game Two between the A’s and Mets remained deadlocked until the top of the 12th, when the Mets came to bat at the Oakland Coliseum. With runners on first and third, an aging Willie Mays bounced a two-out, run-scoring single over Rollie Fingers’ outstretched arms.

When Cleon Jones lined a single to load the bases, Williams replaced Fingers with lefty Paul Lindblad, who faced the slugging John Milner. Milner bounded a routine grounder to second base, where Andrews was deemed healthy enough to field his position. Andrews had pinch-hit for Ted Kubiak in the eighth inning.

Milner’s ground ball had all the earmarks of the inning’s final out. Yet, an uncertain Andrews stabbed clumsily at the ball, allowing it to dribble through his legs. Two runs scored, with Milner and Jones taking second and third, respectively. The A’s now trailed by three runs. Jerry Grote then grounded a ball to the right side of the second base bag. Although a more difficult play than the ball hit by Milner, the grounder remained eminently playable. Andrews handled this bouncer without difficulty, but then threw wide of first baseman Gene Tenace, pulling him off the bag. Andrews’ second error enabled Jones to score the Mets’ fourth run of the inning.

After the disastrous top half of the 12th, Oakland captain Sal Bando noticed A’s owner Charlie Finley placing a call from the owner’s box, located near the A’s’ dugout. On the other end of the line, Oakland’s team physician listened patiently to his angry employer. The impetus for Finley’s call to the doctor would soon overtake the World Series.

Ever the classy veteran, Andrews accepted blame for the loss. “I have no excuses,” Andrews told Leonard Koppett in describing the first play. “I put my glove down for the ball and thought I had it.”

After the game, a reporter asked Dick Williams if the absence of young second baseman Manny Trillo, who had been ruled ineligible for the Series, had cost his team. Williams refused to use the omission of Trillo from the World Series roster as an excuse. “Let’s face it,” Williams bluntly told the New York Times, “when you get down to the 25th man, you’re in trouble.” Andrews was about to find himself in the middle of unwanted trouble.

Moments after the disheartening defeat, Andrews received instructions to report to the team’s orthopedist, Dr. Harry Walker, who promptly examined Andrews’ right shoulder. Andrews then met with Williams and Charlie Finley in a private office. In a sermon that lasted approximately 40 minutes, Finley tried to persuade Andrews to sign a statement, dated October 14, 1973, which made the following claim:

Mike Andrews is unable to play his position because of a bicep groove tencosynotitis of the right shoulder. It is my opinion that he is disabled for the rest of the year.

Dr. Walker had signed his name to the statement. Under the words, “I agree to the above,” Mike Andrews finally agreed to place his signature.

Finley contended that Andrews’ shoulder injury, supposedly sustained prior to the Series, made him unavailable to play during the balance of the World Series. Finley now hoped to make the case to reinstate Trillo to Oakland’s postseason roster. In order to fulfill his wish of adding Trillo, Finley had attempted to break the rules of eligibility, force his team physician into lying about a player’s health, and publicly embarrass a respected veteran.

“The game was over and we sat for a long period of time in the bus waiting to go to the airport,” said Sal Bando, recalling the scene at the Oakland Coliseum. The A’s reacted with disbelief when they realized that Andrews had not boarded the flight. Oakland players had become accustomed to Finley’s bizarre habits: his rampant pettiness and his interference with coaches and managers. Yet, none of those annoying habits had prepared the players for the sinister act that he had committed in essentially firing Andrews. Oakland players simmered on the flight to New York.

On the off day scheduled after Game Two, a furious band of A’s reported to Shea Stadium for a workout. “I suggested at the workout that we wear Mike Andrews’ number on our shirts,” Bando revealed. In response to the captain’s words, several players taped makeshift patches featuring Andrews’ No. 17 on their uniform sleeves.

A report by United Press International clearly painted Finley as the villain, at least according to the testimony of Andrews himself. Andrews told UPI that Finley had threatened to “destroy me in baseball” if he did not sign the statement that declared him injured and unfit to play. Andrews said he did not want to sign the agreement, but did so out of fear that Finley might follow up on his verbal threats.

In Game Four of the Series, a 6-1 blowout for the Mets, Dick Williams sent a not-so-subtle message to Finley that the owner no longer had the final word on Andrews. In the eighth inning, Williams inserted Andrews as a pinch-hitter. As Andrews strode toward home plate, the crowd of 54,817 fans at Shea Stadium treated him as one of their own, bathing him with prolonged applause. Andrews then topped an easy grounder to third baseman Wayne Garrett. As Andrews jogged toward the Oakland dugout, the Mets’ fans once again rose in support of the embattled infielder.

Andrews expressed appreciation for the gesture from the New York fans, not always known for their sympathetic ways. “The ovation gave me chills, it surprised me,” an appreciative Andrews told the New York Daily News. “I don’t think I’ve ever had a standing ovation in my life. To me that meant everything.” In the meantime, Finley remained motionless in his owner’s box. As Andrews ran back to the dugout, an uncomfortable Finley offered some polite applause and awkwardly waved an A’s banner.

The Andrews incident would have a huge impact on the A’s. For Dick Williams, it was the last straw. He secretly told his players that he would resign at the end of the World Series, a promise that he fulfilled. After the season, Finley placed Andrews on waivers, the first step in giving him his release. Finley refused to let Andrews’ exit go at that; he insulted Andrews by quoting baseball’s waiver rules in an interview with The Sporting News. “Any team that wants him can have him for $1.”

Not wanting to give Finley the last word, Andrews announced the filing of a $2.5 million lawsuit against the owner for publicly humiliating him during the World Series. Andrews and Finley ended up settling the suit for an unspecified amount of money.

That winter, Andrews insisted that his arm and shoulder felt fine. A Boston doctor confirmed the condition of the shoulder, saying that he found nothing wrong with the arm. Andrews did admit, however, that he had developed a mental block that affected his throws to first base. It was a problem that had first occurred with the White Sox in 1971 In reaction to the difficulty, he believed he could play a capable first base while still hitting major league pitching. Andrews contacted 22 of the 24 major league teams, but none of the clubs offered him as much as a tryout.

In the aftermath of his release, and Finley’s embarrassing $1 crack, Andrews received an invitation to appear on the Dick Cavett Show, but no interest from any of the ballclubs.

The major league career of the former Red Sox and White Sox second baseman had come to an end—at the age of 30. After sitting out the 1974 season completely, Andrews would play one season in the Japanese Leagues before opting to leave. He did not enjoy the Japanese approach to baseball, which included three-hour practices prior to each game.

Many men might have allowed the embarrassment of the Finley episodes to carry over to their post-baseball days. Andrews is not one of those men. Intelligent and driven, Andrews became an insurance agent specializing in estate planning and also founded two baseball camps, including one he operated with former Red Sox teammate Gerry Moses. He then turned to his true calling, leaving the insurance business to become the assistant director of The Jimmy Fund in Boston.

As the official charity of the Red Sox, The Jimmy Fund provides money for the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute. Andrews first learned about the fund as a player, when he met with a 12-year-old boy at Fenway Park and talked with him for half an hour. Little did Andrews know that the boy was dying from cancer.

When Andrews took over as the charity’s chairman in 1984, The Jimmy Fund was raising less than $1 million annually. Now that annual total is over $50 million. As the fund’s chief spokesman, Andrews deserves his share of credit for the fund’s explosion over the last 30 years.

Andrews has done a lot since he last played baseball. He didn’t permit that Bob Oliver takeout slide to derail him, just like he didn’t allow the bitter pettiness of a difficult owner to ruin his life. Mike Andrews has recovered just fine.

Bruce Markusen is the author of seven books on baseball, including the award-winning A Baseball Dynasty: Charlie Finley’s Swingin’ A’s, the recipient of the Seymour Medal from the Society for American Baseball Research. He has also written The Team That Changed Baseball: Roberto Clemente and the 1971 Pittsburgh Pirates, Tales From The Mets Dugout, and The Orlando Cepeda Story.

<< Return to Article Dear Jonathan Sanchez: Do you mind if we ‘Oliver Perez’ you? from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Dear Jonathan Sanchez: Do you mind if we ‘Oliver Perez’ you?

by Pat Andriola
May 16, 2013



Pat Andriola is a JD/MBA student at NYU. He likes the Mets a lot. You can contact him at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

<< Return to Article The daily grind: 5-16-13 from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The daily grind: 5-16-13

by Brad Johnson
May 16, 2013

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.


Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): Today is not a good day to stream. If you must, Jose Quintana, Jerome Williams, Francisco Liriano and Felix Doubront look like the best options.

Pitcher (bum): Hiram Burgos is probably exploitable on a good day and he's had a long rest. Most pitchers don't like that.

Aaron Harang still seems like he's a few starts from putting it all together.

Edinson Volquez will face a depleted Nationals lineup. It sounds like Harper could miss another game.

Hitter (power): Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay face Harang.

Garrett Jones draws Burgos.

Hitter (speed): Eric Young Jr. continues to be an everyday option for steals. I have a suspicion he may be coming off the bench tonight in favor of Charlie Blackmon.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): Jeanmar Gomez will face the Astros, who have turned into a feast or famine unit. They starve a lot more frequently than they feast, but Gomez is still hard to justify using.

Pitcher (bum): Jordan Lyles seems to be having trouble adjusting to life in the major leagues.

Brandon Maurer versus Ubaldo Jimenez could produce many runs. The same goes for Jeremy Hellickson versus Jason Hammel.

The Rangers will aim to exploit Rick Porcello. Free Drew Smyly.

There are other exploitable pitchers, but I'll draw the line at Vance Worley against the Red Sox.

Hitter (power): Lucas Duda will face Edwin Jackson, whose 6.02 ERA is balanced by a 3.50 FIP.

Continue using Jones.

Daniel Nava is a good play against Worley.

Brett Pill may start against Jorge de la Rosa in place of Brandon Belt.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain goes against Jarrod Parker.

Chris Denorfia will see Gio Gonzalez.

Noteworthy news


Francisco Rodriguez is expected to join the Brewers soon. Don't expect him to take over the closer's gig immediately. In fact, I wouldn't speculate on him unless you're in desperate need of saves or don't have any other use for the roster spot.

Yasmani Grandal is starting his minor league assignment and is expected to return to the Padres May 28. He will likely platoon with Nick Hundley until he can prove himself.

Weather watch


The Mets and Cardinals might see thunderstorms, but otherwise the coast is clear.


Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

<< Return to Article And That Happened from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

And That Happened

by Craig Calcaterra
May 16, 2013



Craig writes the HardballTalk blog for NBC Sports.com

<< Return to Article How Scott Kazmir got his groove back from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

How Scott Kazmir got his groove back

by Kyle Boddy
May 16, 2013

Everyone knows who Scott Kazmir is - or rather, was. The high school flamethrower who threw four straight no-hitters, a cameo in one of the funnier baseball trade jokes (Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano), the tough luck guy stranded in Tampa Bay, and the guy who just lost it all.

Plenty of baseball writers have picked up the story of Kazmir in 2013: the guy who came back from it all, the guy who found his fastball again. The guy who threw 95-96-95 mph heaters straight past Luke Montz to cap off a 10-strikeout performance on May 9.

But scant few have actually picked up on the "how." This is interesting—for a field of study that is so obsessed on creating value in the thinnest areas, how has so little attention been paid to how Scott Kazmir did it?

In December of 2012, I gave a talk at Ron Wolforth's Bootcamp about the power of collecting and presenting data on pitching mechanics, training pitchers, and other equally thrilling subjects. While giving my presentation in front of representatives of 18+ major league teams and countless college and high school coaches, I was able to talk to Ron about Kazmir—after all, he had been working with him all offseason in addition to the guys at Dynamic Sports Training.

Ron told me what he was doing with Kazmir and impressed upon me how hard a worker he was—and not only a hard worker, but one who thought critically about things. Ron joked that nothing was his idea—it always had to be Scott's idea. Scott had to fully internalize the idea and own it before he would implement it. This applied to anything from pitching mechanics tweaks to training philosophies.

After then, speaking to scouts in the room about his performance in indy ball as well a winter league, I was very impressed. After he signed with the Cleveland Indians later in December, I was very happy. In February, I had this Twitter conversation with Adam Burke of The Cleveland Fan:




In the follow-up to that Twitter conversation, I said that baseball didn't believe that such a thing could be done:

Kazmir Tweets

As I said above, no one in baseball thinks velocity development can happen in the professional ranks. In 2012, I wrote an article titled "Making the Sabermetric Case for Increasing Fastball Velocity." (This article was actually about Kazmir. I loosely used him as a baseline for my comparison.) I had a few conversations with front office staffs as a result of it, and here are some snippets out of the emails I received back:

"You can't change [a pitcher's] arm action."
"if his (ed note: referring to Ron Wolforth) or your methods worked, you'd be working in OB already"
"That sounds interesting but how would you even begin to roll it out in an organization? Trainers don't think that way."

In 2008, Paul Nyman outlined this problem on this very website:
Recently I was asked by an MLB team’s baseball operations person to look at one of its pitchers, a player who last year was consistently 92-94 mph and who this year is throwing in the 86-88 mph range. My first question: Do you have good video of this player? The answer was no; they had had what commercial television footage was available. I then lectured this person on the necessity to create and maintain a player video library where camera angles are carefully chosen and the videos maintained to be used in situations like this.

The pitcher (and organization) in question have been revealed by Paul, though that information no longer is accessible on his website, so I will keep it quiet for now. (Astute readers can probably figure it out by looking around.)

Importantly, the fact that this organization did not keep a video archive on its players from various angles—especially ones who are losing velocity— shows how little they believed such a thing mattered. I wish I could say things have changed in five years, but not much has. Organizations still don't really believe in player development from an actual player development standpoint.

Enough talk, more GIFs


Before I show you the differences from 2011 to 2013, I want to show you what Kazmir looked like when he was dominating high school hitters with a fastball that reportedly reached the 97-98 mph range.

The Kazmir of Old

Such rotational violence had Kazmir finishing with his body completely turned to the hitter—the after-effects of trying to throw the ball as hard as possible, with maximum intent.

Here's what he looked like in 2011 compared to 2013, synchronized to release point:

Kazmir 2011 vs. 2013 Pitching Mechanics

Obviously the differences from high school to professional baseball are huge. However, 2011 vs. 2013—and thus 85 vs. 96 mph—is not that readily apparent. But a few things stick out, even with the parallax error introduced by the horrible Kansas City Royals center field camera circa 2011.

Pushing the baseball


Simply put: Kazmir was pushing the baseball. This sequence illustrates the problem perfectly:

image

For comparison, here's a right-handed pitcher who has a strikingly similar arm action to that of the high school Kazmir. He works out in my velocity training program, and he has thrown a baseball 97 mph (and a two-ounce ball 107 mph, which is always fun):

image

What do you see?

Kazmir of 2011 has fully rotated hips and an early-rotated torso. His shoulders don't start closed, and his arm gets into the high-cocked position very early. He is afraid to throw the ball as hard as he can, because he was struggling with command and control. That's when pitching coaches tell you to slow everything down—to just "throw strikes." Slowing down leads to less rotational momentum, which isn't what you used to do, which means the ball comes out 5 mph slower and with LESS command, since you aren't kinesthetically tuned to pushing a ball, and the spiral continues downwards.

The athlete in my video has a similar load/unload action— very violent. His torso stacks late, his hips rotate early, and he has extremely closed shoulders that turn fast. The advice he gets when he misses his target is no different than what Kazmir got when he was struggling: Just slow down, just take it easy.

"Throw 85-87 mph and throw strikes!"

The truth is that even if it worked, it wouldn't have been useful. Kazmir wasn't Jason Neighborball. Kazmir was a 5 WAR pitcher with his "wild" and "violent" delivery. To take him and try to turn him into Barry Zito (on his best day) shouldn't make sense in the slightest, yet this is the advice guys get when they struggle.

Both the athlete in the video and the new Scott Kazmir have a big glove pull, yet another "red flag" that has little to no basis in research. The truth is that the glove pull/yank is an after-effect of elite torso rotational movements (it explains a huge percentage of the variance around fastball velocity when compared to other kinematic factors) and you see it in guys who throw very hard who don't have freakishly huge levers.

Now, I'm not saying that I'm in love with Kazmir's mechanics, because I do think there are things that could be improved. However, if the choice is "slow down and throw strikes" vs. what he's doing now, the latter is far, far better.

And Kazmir may very well fail, get injured, or be ineffective throughout 2013. But he's proven people wrong in the one area that scouts and front offices can't understand: Fastball velocity can be regained and improved.

How baseball failed Scott Kazmir


For the million dollar question that I ask on a regular basis: Why did Kazmir have to go outside professional baseball to figure this out?

Turning a nobody (Scott Kazmir, 2011) into a somebody (Scott Kazmir, 2013) is worth a lot of money to professional teams. So why don't they believe it can be done?

When it comes to player development, I firmly believe we are in a worse place now than when Bill James was writing Baseball Abstracts in-between his shifts as a security guard. At least back then we had guys like Pete Palmer designing the very ground floor for all metrics we use—the concept of linear weights.

You may think that organizations are rolling stuff out like this in secret and not telling anyone. But aside from one club that uses weighted baseballs for rehab/recovery (and its track record for developing pitchers is ridiculously good, I might add), I know of no other that even looks at this stuff—and I work with pitchers from many major league organizations and know plenty of people inside baseball.

I hope Kazmir (and his teammate Trevor Bauer) will throw some light on the subject.

But I'm not holding my breath.

"No one wants to hear about the labor pains, they just want to see the baby."
--Lou Brock

Kyle Boddy is the owner of Driveline Baseball and Driveline Biomechanics Research, both in Seattle, Washington. At his facility, he's melded statistical analysis, strength & conditioning, prehab/rehab, and advanced biomechanical analysis concepts to develop improved efficiency, durability, and fastball velocity of baseball pitchers. He can be reached via email at kyle@drivelinebaseball.com and found on Twitter: @drivelinebases.

<< Return to Article Three more for eternity from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Three more for eternity

by Don Malcolm
May 16, 2013

The results are in.

As wars wind down, as stocks go up in a dizzying cycle, and as another baseball season brings out the best and worst in all of us (on-field, in the front office, and those who ceaselessly jockey for position in baseball’s numbers wars), the Baseball Reliquary stays on course, with an occasional wobble if only to wrest your attention from whatever trifling matter you’re obsessing about.

The Reliquary voters—those anonymous personages who are occasionally compared with the vast legion of the “dis-registered” who used to line the Cook County ballot rolls (and might still constitute a throwback to the old “ghost in the machine” that, among other things, “made this country great”)—have sent in their choices the old-fashioned way.

And, with not even the slightest breath of scandal, or hint of tantrum, or a single reference to Jack Morris, three new members of the Reliquary’s Shrine of the Eternals have been magically, mysteriously selected.

Never has the mystical been so matter-of-fact—or vice-versa.

Oh, you want to know whom they actually selected?? Sorry, that will cost you extra—a few more mugging feints and dodgy delay tactics from yours truly, who asks only that you throw a few spare coins in the direction of his hollowed-out typewriter, the wan relic of a former golden age.

Besides, anyone who’s followed the Reliquary will already know that the members manage, against great and increasing odds, to keep intact the oddly devotional whimsy and loopy, laser-like points of connection that make its version of the Hall of Fame into something above mere excellence and beyond the reach of metaphor, where the trios selected for induction in any year somehow permit those who observe the process to see the forest and the trees at the same time, with pattern and interrelationship between them shifting in a kaleidoscope of wonder.

(That quality—mystical, yet down-to-earth—is what doesn’t quite come across in Jon Leonoudakis’s documentary about the Baseball Reliquary Not Exactly Cooperstown—see the accompanying review for more details.) It is the Shrine of the Eternals that elevates what would otherwise be the prankish put-ons of two precocious schoolkids (executive director Terry Cannon and his mysterious alter ego Albert “Buddy" Kilchesty, who still answer to that description well into their middle years…) into a visionary anti-organization that comes closest to capturing the soul of the game and the strange-but-true exaltation that its most devout practitioners—the Eternals—manage to bring to it.)

But enough forced-air eloquence: it’s time to put aside the puffery. The three new Eternals are, in ascending order of voting percentage received…

{exp:list_maker}Eddie Feigner, the “King” of fast-pitch softball, whose 50-plus years of barnstorming across America produced a .900+ winning percentage despite playing at a more than two-to-one numerical disadvantage on the playing field;

Lefty O’Doul, late-blooming hitting star (.349 lifetime batting average, mostly compiled after the age of 30) who went on to be the Commodore Perry of Japanese baseball, bringing the game to its shores in the 1930s and returning after World War II to assist in using the game to help rebuild the former Japanese empire into a nation that put baseball on an equal footing with Buddhism;

Manny Mota, the greatest pinch-hitter in baseball history, who (as we note in our lengthier essay about him over at the Big Bad Baseball blog) was quite probably the only bench player to receive regular standing ovations by merely making an appearance in the on-deck circle.
{/exp:list_maker}
As is always the case with those elected into the Reliquary’s Shrine of the Eternals, each man brings something unique to the game and to life itself. Like their fellow inductees, they are transformative individuals, each and all capable of “containing multitudes” (as Walt Whitman, poet and early baseball fan, once noted about himself, in a moment of candor and bravado)—but also able to give some of that “multitudinousness” freely to others, via their actions and their achievements.

Those who’ve taken the time to keep a close watch on the Shrine of the Eternals project know that every new election contains a seed of doubt, a kernel of vertigo that seems to leer darkly from the center of the Reliquary’s spider web of baseball shamanism. We fret and furrow our brows, trying not to contemplate the possibility that this project, in its almost aleatory execution, will somehow be swayed by an unknown Circean force to then crash against the rocks and capsize—or, to put it in post-postmodern parlance, simply “jump the shark.”

But somehow, some way, it never happens. And this is the yearly miracle that makes all of the other accumulated agonies of life remain barely bearable; the high-wire act in a windstorm that wobbles but never topples over, somehow remaining upright yet down home, encompassing mirth and reverence, critical distance and the rapture of being alive and in the moment. The Baseball Reliquary is all this, and so much less—but so much more at the same time. Via their vertiginous sleight-of-hand, they manage to make Harry Houdini look like a piker, and they do it without so much as breaking a sweat.

If you come, they will build it. And when you leave, it will melt into air. But the memory of something uncanny and unique will settle into the space behind your eyes, the place where things can be seen for what they really are, and you will never forget the feeling that this mysterious project, this mirthful pilgrimage, this ritual of transformation bestows upon those who experience it.


The 15th Shrine of the Eternals ceremony will be held at 2:30 pm on Sunday, July 21 at the Pasadena Central Library. For more information visit the Baseball Reliquary website.

Don Malcolm edited The Big Bad Baseball Annual from 1995-2001 and still (miraculously) has most of his teeth. His Big Bad Baseball blog survives in spite of itself and is read mostly by those with the nerve to become faint of heart.

<< Return to Article Not exactly definitive from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Not exactly definitive

by Don Malcolm
May 16, 2013

Call it “The Curse of the Baseball Documentary.” Whatever the reason—and whatever the subject or scope—whenever anyone makes a real-life film about the game and its “essence,” something takes hold that steers the vehicle off-course.

Like Billy Martin, who wound up lifeless in a pickup truck at the bottom of a ravine, baseball documentarians tend to get a bit too giddy about their subject…too intoxicated by the color and the trappings of the game and the personalities that populate it.

The old adage “forest for the trees” comes to mind—and, alas, Jon Leonoudakis, in making his film Not Exactly Cooperstown about the Baseball Reliquary, has followed in the footsteps of Ken Burns and has “lovable-ized” his subject to a point where salient details are omitted and the full essence of what is being profiled ultimately fails to fully register. (Leonoudakis, whose previous documentary credit was as the producer of The Wrecking Crew, a film about a legendary set of 1960s studio musicians, spent two years developing Not Exactly Cooperstown, which has yet to achieve a theatrical release and is currently available for purchase as a DVD.)

Burns mostly ignored baseball west of the Hudson River in his massive comb-over of the game’s history, falling back on folksiness and nostalgia to such a degree that the DVD box set of Baseball arguably deserved an “R” rating (“R” for “Retch”). Leonoudakis, working with the Walt Whitman-meets-postmodernist Reliquary, the antidote to the game’s penchant for institutional torpor, takes a lamentably analogous approach.

As with Burns, who could have gone a long way toward redeeming his film with a series of simple entre’actes that put the faces of baseball players from the game’s various eras on screen, Leonoudakis omits mention of nearly three-quarters of the Reliquary’s Shrine of the Eternals (what we’ve taken to calling the “Hall of Fame for the rest of us”).

The film’s biggest failing—just like Burns'—is that it doesn’t consistently put the people who really matter on the screen. The 42 members (now 45: see the accompanying article) of the Reliquary’s Shrine of the Eternals are reduced to around a dozen. (Several more inductees are shown, but not identified. A few others are identified, but not shown.)

To gloss over the evidence of the Reliquary’s unique synthesis of baseball history as manifested in the incredible breadth and variety of the Eternals is to risk leaving the impression that the project is more whimsical and less thought-out than is actually the case.

Elsewhere, Leonoudakis does a solid job of capturing the “day-by-day” activities of the Reliquary—its prolific and imaginative series of exhibitions that showcase the hidden history of baseball and its assimilative aegis within Southern California’s vast array of ethnic communities. A highlight of the film is its examination of baseball’s “circle the wagons” mentality as demonstrated by the Los Angeles Dodgers’ overreaction to the whimsical “Lasordapalooza” event that the Reliquary hosted in 2009. This sequence, along with the Curt Flood-Dock Ellis footage that covers the initial Shrine of the Eternals induction ceremony, is riveting verité.

As creative (and often culturally subversive) as many of the Reliquary’s “floating museum” projects are, however, they do not and cannot stand in for the Shrine of the Eternals, which embodies the inchoate “grand design” that synthesizes their ongoing efforts. Simply presenting the yearly inductees, three at a time, in reverse order throughout the film, would make this point while building to the powerful 1999 opening ceremony, which featured Ellis’s emotional acceptance speech. Alas, it is an opportunity that is missed in the film’s current form.

Leonoudakis, who also serves as the film’s narrator, lets us know at the outset that this is in some ways more of a personal odyssey, a way back into a game from which he had been estranged, and this is oddly reinforced by the front cover of the DVD package—where the Baseball Reliquary, the ostensible subject of the film, is not even mentioned. While this curious oversight is more than compensated for on the back cover, it’s a strangely telling omission.

Also glossed over is the symbiotic relationship between the Reliquary and painter Ben Sakoguchi, whose “Unauthorized History of Baseball”—a series of more than two hundred “orange crate art” paintings—is inextricably intertwined with the impetus behind the Shrine of the Eternals. Sakoguchi is an intensely private man, so his on-camera absence is understandable, but the appearance of his work in the film without a single word of explanation is baffling.

For the Baseball Reliquary is as much about art and culture as it is about baseball. This point is made fleetingly throughout the film, but we don’t get much sense of executive director Terry Cannon’s arts background (he and fellow Reliquary founder Albert Kilchesty were significant presences in Los Angeles’ experimental film world during the '70s and '80s, and continually find ways to incorporate their artistic inclinations into the workings of the Reliquary.)

The film’s discussion of Cannon’s interpolation of religious trappings into the Shrine of the Eternals ceremony is fitfully amusing, but it doesn’t quite make clear that Cannon and Kilchesty have found a way to have their cake and eat it, too—via an irreverent ceremony that pits its choreography against the possibility of anarchic collapse and creates out of the chaos of its performance an unexpected, spontaneous sense of reverence. This magical, self-enfolding transformation is hard enough to describe, much less depict in a film, but there are enough clips from the various ceremonies (and Leonoudakis has picked those wisely) to provide at least a glimpse of that off-beat emotional power. While you won’t walk away from viewing the film with a full sense of what’s going on, you will at least know that something unusual is happening.

As a result of these omissions, Not Exactly Cooperstown is not quite ready for prime-time viewing. Like the Reliquary itself, it’s still a work in progress, and that’s harder to say to the filmmaker than to the architects of the Shrine of the Eternals, which is supposed to grow and change over time. As I’ve noted in posts about the Reliquary over at my Big Bad Baseball blog, it’s the next 15 years that will determine if this singular “anti-organization” can cement itself into the consciousness of baseball in a way that fixes its purpose without finding itself forced into typecasting or trivialization. Like Walt Whitman, it knows that it “contains multitudes,” even if much of what it reveals must remain hidden from those who would otherwise trample its vintage.

For Leonoudakis’s film to capture that mystery, that lingering soap bubble-like paradox, the tension between what is merely written in stone and the spirit of “all that is solid melts into air” that the Reliquary whimsically demands of all who enter into its spell, it needs to honor all the individuals who make up the public face of this progressive force for the full, open and honest embrace of the whole of baseball history (warts, wackiness, and Wambsganss). It should celebrate all of the inductees, even if only in passing; it should double down on the eloquence of keynote speakers such as Robert Elias and Jean Hastings Ardell, who epitomize the balance between a reverence for the game and a critical perspective on the economic and cultural ramifications that filter through it. It should conclude by asking if an “anti-organization” can survive its original creators, and continue to flourish in the same spirit in which it was originally conceived.

A little more work—some restructuring, plus a few additional voices to explicate the Reliquary’s playful mysteries—and those jammed-up bases will be cleared. A few adjustments at the plate, so to speak, can result in a grand slam. (While that might seem like a harsh assessment of the product in its current state, it’s what needs to be said in order to have a film that does justice to a project that began as whimsical performance art but today—against all odds—stands at the brink of becoming something much, much more. To do this, the film also needs to capture that story arc—and, despite these criticisms, such is definitely within its grasp.)

So hunker down, Mr. Leonoudakis, and give the film another time at bat in the editing process. Once you do that, a theatrical release for the film will not only be possible, it will be compulsory. You (and the Reliquary) will be forced to contend with the vagaries of “prime time”—and that will be a sight to see. It’s time to break the “Curse of the Baseball Documentary.” Once—and for all.

Don Malcolm edited The Big Bad Baseball Annual from 1995-2001 and still (miraculously) has most of his teeth. His Big Bad Baseball blog survives in spite of itself and is read mostly by those with the nerve to become faint of heart.

<< Return to Article The all-decade team: the ‘40s from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The all-decade team: the ‘40s

by Richard Barbieri
May 16, 2013

Though it would not be until 1947 that Jackie Robinson integrated baseball, the 1940’s were already an unusual decade in baseball history. Though the game continued through the Second World War, numerous players missed part or all of multiple seasons. Five different teams won the pennant in each league, including the Boston Braves (making their last World Series appearance in that city) and the Chicago Cubs, making their last World Series appearance to date.

The question has to be raised then, with the parity prompted by players missing time and the Yankees going through—by the standards of the surrounding ones—an off decade, would that produce a less talented team?

Before we get to answering that question, let’s do a brief once-over of the rules for picking players: to qualify for any non-pitching position, a player must have played at least 500 games there during his career—though not necessarily during the decade in question. For starting pitchers, to appear on the team requires at least 200 starts in a given decade. Until we hit the more modern usage patterns, relief pitchers will be selected at my discretion, with no game or inning requirements.

Catcher: Walker Cooper
A seven-time All-Star during the decade, Cooper wins the position in a narrow race over Ernie Lombardi. Lombardi was a superior hitter—he won the 1942 batting title and put up an OPS+ nearly 10 points higher—but was a catcher in name only for much of the decade. Meanwhile, Cooper was well-regarded defensively, a fact backed up at least in part by his strong caught stealing numbers—better than league average for his career. Also, Walker’s brother Mort made the team as the fifth starter, and I will admit the idea of a brother battery appeals.

First Base: Johnny Mize
Mize was known as “The Big Cat,” (a nickname later passed on to Andres Galarraga), and put up a .954 OPS for the decade. Only three players put up a higher number during the decade, all of them teammates on the decade squad. Mize’s overalls numbers in the decade, 217 HR, and 744 RBI, may seem relatively low but it must be remembered that he spent three full seasons of baseball in military service. Despite that, Mize still slugged the second most home runs of any player in the 1940s and was in the top 10 for RBI.

Second Base: Joe Gordon
The first “Flash” Gordon, Joe made his debut in 1938, and by the time the 1940s had rolled around, was into his prime. In 1942 he won the American League MVP, and though Ted Williams was probably the best player in the league that year, Gordon was still excellent. He posted a .900 OPS, good for fourth in the league and did so while playing a strong second base.
image
Great hitters get honors, like a Stan Musial statue(US Presswire)


After returning from wartime service—Gordon missed the 1944 and 1945 seasons—he struggled in 1946 and the Yankees sent him to Cleveland for Allie Reynolds. Gordon rebounded in Cleveland, posting two of the best seasons of his career, and helping the Indians win the World Series, along with a player we’ll hear more about shortly.

Third Base: Bob Elliott
The subject of this 2010 column by your humble correspondent, and recipient of one of my all-time favorite nicknames—Mr. Team—Elliott led third basemen in every major offensive category throughout the decade except home runs. Elliott won the 1947 MVP, a year in which he batted .317 with 35 doubles, both good for second in the league. Overall, no one drove in more runs during the ‘40s than Elliott’s 903.

Shortstop: Lou Boudreau
And here we meet Gordon’s teammate referenced above. Boudreau timed his career nearly perfectly for the purposes of the team, playing his third season—but first full one—in 1940. That season he finished fifth in the MVP voting, the first of eight top 10 MVP finishes he would post during the decade. The best of those seasons came in 1948 when Boudreau batted .355 and posted a WAR of 10.4—still one of the five or 10 greatest shortstop seasons of all-time.

Even more impressive was that Boudreau accomplished all that he did as a player-manager—in fact, he won nearly 1,200 games for his managerial career and remains the last player-manager to win a title.

Left Field: Ted Williams
I’m just going to go ahead and say this now so no one has to act surprised later: the outfield for his team is just insanely talented. I haven’t done all the outfields yet, but the chance of a decade topping this one is basically none.

While this is good for the team, it makes my life difficult. There’s not a lot of insight one can offer on Ted Williams that hasn’t already been said. The man could be an indifferent defender but was an astonishing hitter. Despite missing three full seasons thanks to military service, Williams led Major League Baseball in home runs, runs and walks during the decade.

Center Field: Joe DiMaggio
Like Williams, “The Yankee Clipper,” lost three seasons of the decade to wartime service. And like Williams, though it held his totals down, he still ended up with numbers most players would be thrilled to have. For the decade, despite playing just seven full seasons, DiMaggio won two MVP awards, a batting title, and a home run title.

Of course, DiMaggio put up those numbers playing the cavernous original Yankee Stadium and did it all while patrolling center field in a brilliant manner. There are a lot of great center fielders, but Joe DiMaggio deserves to be on the short list for the greatest of all-time.

Right Field: Stan Musial
I’m aware that no one really thinks of Stan Musial has a right fielder. And it is true he played far more games at first base (1,029) and in left field (929) than he did in right (785). The rules say, though, that a player is eligible at any position in which he played 500 games. As great as Musial is, he would not push Ted Williams out of left field. And though Musial is a superior player to Mize—something that tells us more about Musial than Mize—there’s no reason to knock The Big Cat off the team. So instead The Man slots into the right field.

For this decade, Musial put up an OPS over 1.000, won three batting titles, the 1948 Triple Crown award and three MVP awards. Musial might be slightly out of position in right field, but with offensive production like that, I imagine the team can live with it.

Starting Pitchers: Hal Newhouser, Bob Feller, Dizzy Trout, Mort Cooper, Dutch Leonard
I suppose there must be some fans who know Hal Newhouser only as the Astros’ scout who resigned in protest when the team drafted Phil Nevin over his preferred choice of Derek Jeter. At least he got the last laugh. Nonetheless, Newhouser deserves to be remembered more for his feats on the mound. Four times a 20-game winner, he was brilliant through the decade, winning the MVP award back-to-back in 1944 and ’45, years during which he went a combined 54-18 with a 2.01 ERA while averaging 313 innings.
image
Or a Ted Williams stamp (US Presswire)


During the decade 2000-09, only four players (Andy Pettitte, Randy Johnson, Jamie Moyer and Roy Halladay) won more than 137 games. That happens to be the exact total Bob Feller posted during the 1940s. And that was despite Feller serving during the 1942 through 1944 seasons and pitching in only nine games during the ’45 campaign.

Of course, the game has changed a fair amount but Feller’s greatness—he led the AL in strikeouts in all but one of his full seasons—is worth remembering.

The number two pitcher behind Newhouse on many of the great Tiger teams of the decade, Trout here slots in to the number three spot in the rotation. For the decade, he won 126 games and his brilliant pitching in the 1945 World Series—just one earned run in nearly 14 innings—helped the Tigers to the title.

Brother of Walker, Mort Cooper threw 31 shutouts during the decade, a number bettered by no pitcher. Cooper’s feat is even more impressive when you consider the rest of the top five in shutouts for the decade (a list that includes Newhouser, Feller and Trout) averaged more than 250 starts, while Cooper had just 210.

Recently played by former Major Leaguer CJ Nitkowski in 42—though the actual Leonard was a righty—“Dutch” spent time with four times over his 20 year career. He spent most of the 40s with the Senators, winning as many 18 games and making the All-Star team three times on the strength of his knuckleball.

Relief Pitcher: Hugh Casey
This is the first decade in which there are multiple good choices as a reliever who were well and truly relievers. In addition to Casey, there was Johnny Murphy, the choice of the last decade who remained effective until his final Major League season in 1947. There’s also Joe Page, who twice finished in the top five in MVP voting and was christened “The Gay Reliever,” thus reminding us that meant something else back then.

Casey spent all of the 1943-45 seasons in military service, but still managed to record 54 saves in the decade, second only to Page. He was particularly brilliant in 1946; returning to the game, Casey threw an eyelash shy of 100 innings with a 1.99 ERA and finished 27 games for the Dodgers.

Manager: Billy Southworth
Possibly because his greatest success came during 1942-44, a period when baseball was viewed (correctly, to some extent) as weakened by players serving in the Second World War—and the country was a little more focused on that anyway—Southworth is largely forgotten in popular baseball history. When it comes to managing in this decade though, no one had more success. During that ’42-44 period, Southworth’s Cards won either 105 or 106 games, and overall he posted a .615 winning percentage for the decade—the equivalent of a nearly 100 wins in a modern schedule. Of course, Southworth wasn’t just winning games, he also took teams to four World Series during the ‘40s, twice ending the year as World Champion.

Questions, comments and thinly veiled threats can be mailed to Richard on the back of a twenty dollar bill or e-mailed to him at RichardBarbieri@yahoo.com

<< Return to Article Of Uggs and Uggla from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Of Uggs and Uggla

by Derek Ambrosino
May 16, 2013

It’s an age old question for anybody who has ever taken a trip to the grocery store, or to shop for pants—do you buy what you need/want, or do you buy what is on sale? ...and, no, I don't wear Ugg boots (I'm not Tom Brady), but I could pass up the clever title.

Last week, in my shallowest league, a cold Dan Uggla surfaced on the waiver wire. I hadn’t entered the store of available players to look for a power-hitting middle infielder, or any middle infielder at all, actually. I had just stopped in to browse the spot starting pitchers section. But, like when you are in one of those discount stores and you see an item from a brand normally too high-end to show up at that store, my interests were certainly piqued. Now, this is not the nicest model the second baseman brand makes, and as mentioned, I had no intent to pick up a middle infielder, but the allure of discounted luxury goods can be alluring… even if there’s a chance this Dan Uggla is an irregular. So, I picked him up.

But, did I make the right decision? Is it a good idea to pick up a player simply because he represents a bargain?

In some cases, I think there is a very strong argument for this philosophy – amass talent and decide what to do with it later. And, if you are going to employ this strategy, early in the season is the time to do it. However, the other variable with this strategy is whether your team has current glaring needs. In my case, my offense has been stellar but my pitching has been atrocious. Beyond that, I’m falling a bit too far behind the pace in innings. Even if I feel that much of my staff will come around in the long run (and, I do), I still need the flexibility of that roster spot to take advantage of decent waiver wire options matched up against the Astros and Marlins.

So, I did what your favorite rapper or pop star does with the $8,000 outfit from his/her video. I used my Dan Uggla once or twice and then I returned it. After dropping it off, I bought a lovely start from Nick Tepesch against the Astros and then a productive day from Lyle Overbay on the travel day. I was hoping Uggla would remain available, and allow me to use him regularly on those travel days, when I typically look for spot bats as opposed to spot arms. He may have even convinced me to drop or trade somebody else to make room for him as a regular part of my wardrobe. But, unlike when actually shopping, I couldn’t hide a sweater in the housewares section so I could buy it next time I returned to the store. So, a day or two later, somebody else picked up Uggla.

At the end of the day, I’m comfortable with my decision to prioritize need over value in a vacuum. I have way more room to improve in pitching and need to try to augment my rotation via the wire, either by repeated wise plays or by catching lightening in a bottle on that end. The name of the game is to earn the most points, not accumulate the most talent or value.

How do you balance need vs. value when combing the available players in your league?

Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com.

<< Return to Article The daily grind: 5-15-13 from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The daily grind: 5-15-13

by Brad Johnson
May 15, 2013

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.


Yesterday was a bit of a disasterpiece. I hope few of you used Scott Kazmir or John Lackey (I used both). There's still reason to be cautiously optimistic about both guys, but I would emphasize the caution part more going forward.

Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): Phil Hughes is up to 52 percent owned and remains the best streaming option for the day. He will face the Mariners.

Mike Leake is a decent fallback due to his match-up with the Marlins.

Pitcher (bum): The Phillies got to lefty Scott Kazmir last night, and I predict they'll hit well against Corey Kluber too.

The only thing keeping Mike Pelfrey from being an everyday mention in the exploit column is the five-day rotation.

Coming off four bad outings to start the season, Shaun Marcum has a tough assignment against the Cardinals.

Wade Davis versus Barry Enright sounds like a high-scoring affair.

Hitter (power): Colby Rasmus and Adam Lind may benefit from facing Ryan Vogelsong.

Domonic Brown homered yesterday and has a friendlier match-up tonight.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain has spent some time circling the waivers in my leagues. He has a nice combination of speed and power. He'll also face Kluber today.

Nate Schierholtz faces Jon Garland.

Eric Young Jr. is starting and leading off on occasion. Use him with impunity.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): Honestly, don't try to force it tomorrow. Nobody has a match-up where I can comfortable expect an ERA under 4.00. If you absolutely must use somebody, Jose Quintana, Jerome Williams, Francisco Liriano and Felix Doubront are the best dice throws.

Pitcher (bum): Hiram Burgos got skipped after blowing up against the Reds. The Pirates have a solid offense and will look to exploit any rust he shows.

Aaron Harang will likely struggle against the voodoo Yankees.

Edinson Volquez may be lucky enough to not face Bryce Harper or Jayson Werth, but the Nationals lineup will still be a challenge for him.

Hitter (power): If Harper is out another game, Tyler Moore will get the lovely Volquez match-up.

Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay should enjoy facing Harang.

Garrett Jones will see Burgos.

Hitter (speed): Keep on using Young.

Noteworthy news


Zack Greinke and Curtis Granderson return to the lineup.

Harper was held out yesterday, citing nausea (among other things). That's a bit worrying. The team docs said he did not have a concussion, but nausea is a symptom of a concussion. It bears watching.

Weather watch


There is currently a small risk of storms in St. Louis and Philadelphia, but otherwise it's another fine weather day.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

<< Return to Article And That Happened from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

And That Happened

by Craig Calcaterra
May 15, 2013



Craig writes the HardballTalk blog for NBC Sports.com

<< Return to Article Running hot and cold from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Running hot and cold

by Shane Tourtellotte
May 15, 2013

I don't remember the site, or the author, or I would give the link here. This crossed my screen just before I set out on The Grand Tour, and I was preparing for that trip rather than consciously banking ideas to investigate once I came back.

I do remember the assertion made, though: that young baseball players, by nature, are more prone to streaks and slumps than those who have been in the majors for several years. The key ingredient is posited as experience, the accumulation of general knowledge and specific meetings against pitchers that makes each at-bat more like every other, less likely to surprise, pleasantly or otherwise.

Nice theory you've got there. It'd be a shame if something happened to it. Like contrary data.

The groundwork


Taking age 28 as the average peak of a baseball player's career, I chose cohorts equal distances from this point, age 23 and age 33, to represent young players and vets, as well as the sweet spot of 28 itself. I looked for seasons between 2003 and 2012 when players of these ages qualified for the batting title (502 plate appearances). I also required that they have a minimum of 60 plate appearances in each of the six months of the season, to avoid small samples creating artificially large swings.

(For purposes of this survey, late March games count together with April, and early October games count along with September. Postseason play is excluded.)

I found the first potential hiccup in my data in how many players qualified fully for the survey. Among young players, 49 qualified for the batting title, and six fell short on monthly totals. For the prime players, it was 147 and 40; for the veterans, 78 players batted enough for the year, but 20 couldn't keep up 60 PA per month.

The youngsters drop out on monthly totals less than half as often as the older players. One can theorize that older bodies are accumulating more minor injuries that cost them half a month here and there (though it happens somewhat less often for the age-33 cohort than at age 28). Given that nagging injuries could produce more slumps, both before and after a DL stint, this could flatten out the vets' bumps.

(But is this necessarily bad? The hypothesis is that younger players are more streaky because of inexperience. Physical durability isn't part of that equation. Trimming out seasons due to injuries, presumably covering more age-28 and 33 players than age 23, may get us closer to answering the specific question, if further from the general one.)

Another hiccup is that this method probably has a bias toward youngsters getting off to hot starts. A 23-year-old who runs cool in April has a much bigger chance to find himself demoted or benched than the 33-year-old does. Granted, you can bench the veteran, which cuts his chances of making the cutoff lines plenty too. Teams, though, are likelier to play someone with a contract the size of the average age-33 player's longer into a hitting drought, waiting for the rebound. Similar rationales exist for sticking with the age-28 player.

There's also something of a problem with varying sample sizes, but there is little I can do about that. Youngsters are just less likely to get regular playing time. Going back more years for everyone won't really alter the ratios, and doing it just for the kids may confound the numbers. I go with what I've got.

As for determining streaks and slumps, I used monthly figures for each player. Ups and downs surely come in smaller sizes, as well as larger, and they don't necessarily conform to break points on the calendar. Again, I go with the data I have available—which in this case provides something admirably suited to the work.

There is this wonderful abstruse statistic in the Baseball-Reference records called tOPS+. The OPS+ part you probably know: on-base plus slugging, adjusted for park effects and normed to the league average at 100. The 't' part here means the norming is done instead to the player's own total performance. You can thereby measure a batter's splits against what the batter does overall. It works for lefty-righty, home-away, and in this case, month by month.

I take the variation from 100 as the magnitude of streaking or slumping for each month. The direction of the variation by month does not count for my purposes, only the magnitude. A tOPS+ of 120 or 80 will produce the same variation, 20.

For every player season in the survey (some players got in twice at different ages), I took their monthly tOPS+ splits. I then adjusted them further, against the league-wide tOPS+ splits for the months in question. If July of Year X had a tOPS+ of 106 compared to the overall year, a batter's monthly split of 120 would be less of a variation from the norm than it appears. I'd revise the variation from 20 points down to 14.

For an example of how this works, I'll give you Joe Mauer's age-23 season in 2006. Note that Mauer's numbers are relative to himself, not the league, which is why all his monthly numbers aren't well above 100. Also, due to different PA totals in each month, the numbers won't necessarily average out to an even 100.

                    Mar/Apr  May   June   July  August Sep/Oct
Mauer's tOPS+          74    110    146    79     76     104
League tOPS+          100     98     99   106    100      97
Mauer's Variation      26     12     47    27     24       7

That's a total of 143 variation points over six months for Mauer, which is dead average for his age cohort, as you will soon see.

The results


Before diving into the streak numbers, I'll take a quick side-trip to overall monthly performance for the age groups. Different ages could plausibly have differing ebbs and flows in how well they bat. While there are some suggestions of that in the numbers, actual steady patterns are more elusive.

tOPS+ by month   M/A    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    S/O
Age-23 cohort   104.0  100.8  101.0   93.2  100.8   99.1 
Age-28 cohort    97.1   99.8   95.5  105.0  100.8   96.6
Age-33 cohort    93.0   97.0  105.7   98.1  101.9  101.8

For each group, the tOPS+ numbers average out to less than 100, which, the way I've set this up, actually makes sense. Players are naturally likelier to receive more plate appearances when they're running hot, but those bigger PA clumps count as just one month, same as the cold ones. This pulls the average down.

That anticipated selection bias toward fast starts by the youngsters does appear to exist. Less easily explained is their collective slump in July. It could be this is the time when pitchers start getting their second looks at young hitters, start figuring out the holes in their swings, start benefiting from their adjustments before the batters can adjust back in following months. Or maybe it's luck.

The veterans get off to a decidedly slow start, which is just the stereotype one might invent about older players struggling to get back into playing shape and rhythm. Of course, you'd also stereotype them as getting more worn out by season's end, and in reality they hang in pretty well down the stretch. You may insert your own explanations here. You can also try to explain the age-28 spike in July: unless it's pure variance, I'm stumped.

The numbers for streaks and slumps likewise avoid being clearly decisive, but they do give some food for thought.

Variation   M/A    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    S/O    Year  Per Mo.
Age-23     26.9   19.4   24.0   27.3   21.9   23.4   142.9   23.8
Age-28     23.1   25.6   21.7   23.2   20.7   22.8   137.1   22.9
Age-33     27.9   23.9   23.8   23.9   21.2   24.9   145.6   24.3

The veterans show a bit greater variance over the season than the youngsters. As I allowed earlier, the selection bias for the age-23 group may exclude a few early slumpers, suppressing the numbers a little. Even with that taken into account, there's no evidence to say that young players are more inconsistent than the long-timers. The answer to the question that originated this article is "No."

The prime players, though, may have a case for themselves. They show less variation than the other cohorts, and consistently too: they have the lowest monthly splits five out of six times. The biggest gap is in March/April, 3.8 points below their nearer competitor. Getting off to a relatively steady start explains much of their margin, but not all.

The consistency shows through in individuals' numbers as well. The age-23 cohort had six seasons with a variance of 200 or higher, and only two at 75 or lower. For age-33, it was eight at 200+ and three at 75-, a similar ratio. At age-28, however, there were 11 apiece going very high or very low. Great streakiness was about a quarter less common for the prime players, and great steadiness was more than twice as common.

The distribution suggests that prime-age players get a part of their prime performance through consistency. They may avoid the worst dips that knock down the averages of both younger and older players. If experience has its effect on steady performance, maybe the slow decline of the human body does as well, and the age-28 peak represents a sweet spot for steadiness as well as overall ability.

More study may be indicated. (That's intellectual-speak for "Let someone else handle this." I like how that sounds.)

There are some individual performances that, while not doing much to illuminate the overall question, still have interest. Someone in this study had to have the most streaky performance, and the winner is Jason Kendall, age 33 in 2007. This is what a real up-and-down year looks like.

                   Mar/Apr  May   June   July  August Sep/Oct
Kendall's tOPS+       32     55    148    78    202      68
Adjusted Variation    61     42     48    22     99      37

Kendall racked up 309 variation points, the highest total of the 208 players in the survey. The trick seems to be getting two big spikes in the same direction, which is admittedly tautological: the trick to being streaky is to have streaks.

The competition for the steadiest performance was tighter, for a while. Big names cropped up here and there: Albert Pujols, age 23 in 2003; Derek Jeter, age 33 in 2007. But one guy beat them all, and it wasn't close.

It was Ryan Braun, just last year. The 28-year-old put together a monthly tOPS+ line of: 98, 108, 103, 93, 102, 97. After monthly adjustments, his season variation point total came to a microscopic 21, less than the mean variation for a single month. His closest challenger was 2009 Paul Konerko, with 51, a veritable seismograph compared to Braun.

Two questions pop up from the Ryan Braun outlier. The first, regrettably, is what often pops into mind regarding Braun: PED suspicion. I suppose it's possible this is somehow a result of performance enhancers. A brief check of players I surveyed who have been linked to PEDs in various ways came up inconclusive: three above average, three below. Braun's previous four years give two results below average and two above. Absent a lot more evidence, I'll call it luck.

The second question is how much Braun's rock-steady 2012 bends the numbers. Luckily, not much. Without him, the age-28 cohort's monthly variance would be just a tenth of a point higher. Their steadier performance is not due to him alone. Besides which, age-28 players had 107 of the 208 seasons I surveyed. By pure chance, odds were that the lowest variation would belong to one of them. Then again, that's also true for the highest variation, and that ended up in the age-33 bucket instead.

The conclusion


Younger players do not appear to be more prone to streaks and slumps than older ones, but players at the peak age of 28 do look somewhat steadier month to month than either surrounding group. Also, older players are prone to slower starts, at least within the boundaries of this survey.

So the next time a long-time player talks about some fresh kid's bat being on a roller-coaster, look instead at the fellow speaking. It's just as likely he's having his own highs and lows as well.

Shane Tourtellotte is a long-time, occasionally-nominated science fiction writer, currently living in Asheville, North Carolina. He will tell you all about the baseball novel he’s shopping if you give him an inch.

<< Return to Article The Phillies should retool but not reboot from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The Phillies should retool but not reboot

by Brad Johnson
May 15, 2013

Last season, the Boston Red Sox threw in the towel, jettisoning a hefty package of veterans for prospects, cash, and room on the roster. Surprisingly, they parlayed that move into a 22-16 start to the season that has the Red Sox Nation jumping back onto the bandwagon.

The rapid reconstruction provides a blueprint for the struggling Phillies. Prior to the season, I noted that Roy Halladay was crucial to the Phillies' playoff chances. He's now out through at least mid-August with a partially torn rotator cuff. Without that essential lynch pin, a tepid 18-21 start is probably too much to overcome. Fans are talking about discarding all veterans, including productive ones on relatively cheap contracts like Jimmy Rollins, yet the farm system is fairly barren, with only a handful of names poised to contribute in the majors.

The Phillies probably need to do something very soon, but any plan that may succeed will be brazen, full of risk and hidden dangers. The goal is to emulate the Red Sox and field a relevant team as soon as 2014. There is nothing desirable about an Astros-style blowup and frankly that's probably a very bad idea in the Philadelphia market. The Phans are not known for their understanding nature.

Building blocks


The Phillies are far from flush with future stars, but they do have some building blocks.

Domonic Brown is showing more and more flashes of his above average potential. He's unlikely to set the world afire in 2013, but he's also shown continuous incremental improvement whenever healthy. The story of Carlos Gomez comes to mind. The Brewers' patience allowed them to develop a growing star at the major league level over the course of three seasons. The Phillies should emulate that strategy with Brown—ignoring impatient fans if necessary.

Ben Revere has struggled mightily in his short tenure as a Phillie, but I noted a few weeks ago that he's seeing some peculiar results. At the end of the day, Revere is a high quality complementary player, but Juan Pierre was an important complimentary component to the Marlins World Series victory in 2003.

Cole Hamels is in his age 29 season and under contract through 2018 with a club option for '19. The Phillies would likely need a huge return—think Jurickson Profar or Oscar Taveras - to even consider trading him.

Two pitchers who should slot effectively into the rotation are nearing the majors. Lefty Jesse Biddle, widely considered the best prospect in the system, has toyed with the opposition in five out of six starts in Double-A. He still needs to improve his command and control and is ideally a mid-2014 call-up. Adam Morgan will likely get the call sometime in 2013. He's an effective lefty with a plus change-up and mid-rotation profile. Both pitchers could contribute as soon as 2014 and be reliable, cheap workhorses by 2016. Don't forget TINSTAAPP.

Phillippe Aumont and Justin De Fratus both have the makings of a relief ace. That won't stop the organization from using them to acquire better talent, but they could help form a very potent bullpen if that opportunity doesn't coalesce.

Maikel Franco is arguably the top position prospect in the system (Roman Quinn being the other candidate). He's having an excellent season in Single-A Clearwater with six home runs to date. The only complaints are that he can be over-aggressive at the plate and his swing can get a bit long. He's also at least two seasons away from the majors, so the Phillies need a stopgap (see Asche and Galvis below).

False flags


These are the guys with limited upside who are consistently pointed to as an heir apparent.

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez has started the 2013 season with a .341/.391/.480 batting line at Triple-A Lehigh Valley (don't mind the .404 BABIP). He profiles as a second division starter or utility infielder, combining a slightly below average offensive presence with strong defensive skills. Some Phillies fans are ready to boot Chase Utley to make room for him.

Cody Asche has been on the radar since last season for the third base-starved Phillies. His combination of middling tools across the board will make him a useful stopgap, but his upside appears to be similar to Chris Johnson.

Many hoped Darin Ruf would help the Phillies' outfield this season. He's a bad defender with big power and some bat speed concerns. Again, he can probably hold down a position—especially first base—and provide better than replacement level production, but the ultimate upside is probably similar to Jason Kubel. For those keeping track at home, Kubel has turned in one above-average performance in the last seven seasons.

Freddy Galvis is a no-hitting, defensive wizard. Talk of his replacing Utley or Rollins is premature. His best use is as a defensive replacement, even with second division clubs. He is very young—this is his age 23 season—so he could grow into a more useful complementary player.

Jonathan Pettibone has the makings of a solid work horse, but he's unlikely to be any better than average. Similar pitchers like J.A. Happ and Vance Worley have been shipped out of town at the first opportunity.

What should the Phillies do?


I've already said that the Phillies should not engage in an Astros-style overhaul of the roster. Given their paucity of major league-ready prospects, that direction will produce bad results for many seasons to come. Maintaining a relatively competitive roster should ensure enough revenue to rebuild effectively.

One issue with the roster is a wide array of pricey veterans, which lends itself to the tear-down approach. It may be best to walk a fine line.

There is a blue print that can be followed. If the Phillies find themselves as deadline sellers, they can look to build a salary dump as the Red Sox did. That might look like Cliff Lee (Adrian Gonzalez), Ryan Howard (Carl Crawford), and Michael Young or Rollins (Josh Beckett) for a couple pitchers of with upside. The cash transfer would determine the quality of prospect involved.

Such a trade requires a partner and it may be that the Dodgers last year were a one-of-a-kind opportunity for the Red Sox. However, with the Marlins also doing a major player dump over the offseason and baseball flush with TV dollars, such deals may become more common.

The Yankees are the most obvious partner, assuming that they remain in the playoff hunt and need veteran reinforcements. The Bombers have supposedly given up their attempt to squeeze payroll under the luxury tax threshold after realizing that the potential financial gain was substantially smaller than first thought. That would make Cliff Lee a welcome addition. The case for Howard requires at least one of Travis Hafner or Mark Teixeira to be injured. It seems unlikely that the Phillies would deal Lee without ridding themselves of Howard. Any of Young, Rollins or Carlos Ruiz would be a helpful addition to round out the trade.

The only other teams that might be a potential partner are the Rangers and Red Sox. Both are perceived to have less financial flexibility than the Yankees.

With or without a blockbuster salary dump, the Phillies have several players headed to free agency. Young, Utley, Ruiz and Halladay are the most notable at this time.

Young is the easiest to discard, as a combination of Kevin Frandsen, Asche, Galvis, and potentially even Hernandez could replicate his value on a league minimum contract.

Utley should be re-signed if possible. His veteran leadership, grinder mentality, and talent trump the injury risk associated with his knees - at least from an outsider's perspective. The club could have additional information not publicly available, but Utley is supposedly playing pain free for the first time in years—and it looks like it.

Utley may be the Phillies' Chipper Jones—a fan favorite who provides huge value when healthy and misses more than a few games. A useful back-up like Hernandez or Galvis will help cover for the time he misses. He'll likely cost a little more than he's worth from a purely on-field perspective, but the difference should be acceptable given his tangible intangibles.

Ruiz should also be re-signed assuming he remains healthy and shakes off the rust he's showing. The Phillies have some catching prospects, but none are banging down the door. Meanwhile, Ruiz can help guide the influx of young pitchers. Given his age and recent amphetamine suspension, a modest two-year deal should be sufficient.

The Phillies will also be tempted to trade Rollins and Kyle Kendrick around the trade deadline. In either case, the quality of the offer must be weighed. Replacing Rollins would prove difficult. Galvis can provide marginally better defense at the expense of terrible offense and the only true shortstop prospects are many years away from the majors.

Kendrick has grown into a solid mid-rotation pitcher—like a more groundball-oriented version of Kyle Lohse. The perception around the league may not match his actual value. He's eligible for one more season of arbitration.

Concluding thoughts


The Phillies do not have the luxury of pursuing a pure buy or sell strategy. They must delicately lace the two together to weave a newly competitive roster.

Getting out from under the Howard contract would be hugely helpful in that it would allow the club much needed payroll flexibility while freeing the club to pursue better production at first base. Such an outcome may be impossible at this time, but this would be a good use for valuable veterans like Lee, Rollins, and/or Ruiz.

Beyond pulling off a blockbuster, the Phillies should be open to keeping each of their veterans but also willing to move them in the correct deal. The team does need to get younger, but that cannot be done blindly.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

<< Return to Article Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 7, Vol. II from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 7, Vol. II

by Karl de Vries
May 15, 2013

Well, it turns out Andrew Bailey isn’t as close to returning as I may have thought late last week, giving Junichi Tazawa a more lengthy look at the closer’s job in Boston. Problem is, he’s been somewhat terrible since inheriting the job, leading to speculation that a closer platoon with him and Koji Uehara might be possible. Meanwhile, Heath Bell has settled in as the D-Backs closer, though a blown save last week reminded us that he’s hardly a lock for 25-30 saves the rest of the way.

Going even further back in this column’s 2013 track record, Aaron Hicks belted two homers the other day against the White Sox, though that just soothes my ego after the collapse of Jake Westbrook’s fantasy value and Felix Doubront’s recent problems.

But if you wanted to talk about last week’s column, you’d be reading it, wouldn’t you? Let’s look at some new blood.

Will Venable | San Diego Padres | OF | 11 percent Yahoo ownership; 7.6 percent ESPN; 20 percent CBS
YTD: 106 PA / .247 / .327 / .452 with 5 HR and 7 SB
ZiPS updated: 479 PA / .246 / .319 / .421 with 15 HR and 25 SB


Twitter pal Lee Wilson on Friday asked me for my quick thoughts on Venable vs. Craig Gentry and Jordan Schafer. After a quick eyeballing of the three players’ stats, I favored Venable, based on his more consistent playing time and better speed. But the real reason I like Venable—well, at least to the extent one can like a guy with a career .742 OPS—is his 15.4 percent line drive rate entering Wednesday, which is more than three percentage points below his career average. When that climbs, we’ll see his BABIP creep up toward his career .315 level, which will raise his .247 average.

The good news is that Venable is starting to heat up after hitting just .206 last month. Since May began, he’s hit .360 with three home runs and four steals entering Wednesday’s action. Not coincidentally, that hot streak began just after the Padres regained their best offensive player in Chase Headley and Jedd Gyorko began hitting as well. It’s also been encouraging to see Venable hit .327 at Petco Park—yes, that average is inflated by a lofty BABIP, and we’re just talking about a friggin’ six-week stretch here, but for a guy who’s struggled in San Diego throughout his career, perhaps the moved-in fences are a sign that he’ll begin to play better at home.

The 30-year-old Venable, of course, is hardly a newcomer to fantasy circles, having been a full-time player for the past three years after debuting with the Padres in 2008. He's a left-handed-hitter who remains an extreme platoon player, evidenced by a putrid .580 OPS against southpaws. But despite his familiarity as a not-great-but-not-awful fantasy option and someone who’s averaged 26 steals over the past three years, he’s still available in plenty of leagues. He’s never going to be a must-grab, but a hot hand is a hot hand, and the stolen bases alone give him should merit him consideration in five-outfield leagues.

Recommendation: Pass in standard mixed leagues, but pick him up while he’s hot everywhere else.

Jeff Locke | Pittsburgh Pirates | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership; 8.5 percent ESPN; 44 percent CBS
YTD: 39.2 IP / 4.88 FIP / 4.99 K/9 / 4.31 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 154 IP / 4.61 FIP / 6.05 K/9 / 3.92 BB/9


When I saw the southpaw’s CBS ownership jump by more than 20 points in the past week, I figured he was ripe for a spin in the waiver wire. After all, Pittsburgh is about as good a place to stay anonymous as there is in baseball, and perhaps this guy is the real deal looking for just a little positive PR to get his ownership going.

Locke, 25, was drafted in the second round by the Braves in 2006, and was traded, along with two other players, in the 2009 deal between Atlanta and Pittsburgh for Nate McLouth. In the minors, Locke pitched well, compiling a better than 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a fine 1.26 WHIP and an ability to get strikeouts. Armed with a fastball that doesn’t zoom beyond the low-90s, the Princeton grad was never tabbed as a spectacular prospect, but is expected to hang around the majors as a back-of-the-rotation hurler on a good team.

So what explains the jump in his ownership? Well, a 2.95 ERA certainly doesn’t scare away prospective fantasy owners, and a 3-1 record in seven starts isn’t half bad. Unfortunately, that’s where the good news ends. Want proof? Take your pick: A 4.84 xFIP. A crazy 81.5 percent strand rate. A 21 percent balls in play average. A 7.1 swinging strike rate. Yeah, seven starts is not a gigantic sample size, but it’s not a trend that portends a happy ending, either.

I’m not here to discredit Locke as a big leaguer or wish a pox upon his house, and if he can continue to pound the strike zone and limit walks, I don’t think a 4 ERA with a 6 K/9 is impossible by the time 2013 is over. But a market correction is right around the corner, and when that happens, you’ll want to be someplace else, preferably wearing a helmet while nestled in a concrete bunker.

Recommendation: Stay away in mixed leagues.

Denard Span | Washington Nationals | OF | 19 percent Yahoo ownership; 23.9 percent ESPN; 56 percent CBS
YTD: 151 PA / .277 / .344 / .350 with 0 HR and 5 SB
ZiPS updated: 595 PA / .275 / .335 / .369 with 3 HR and 18 SB


Can I ask a dumb question? Why is the leadoff hitter on arguably the best team in the National League hanging around the waiver wire in so many leagues? What’s wrong with a guy who steals bases, scores runs and posts a decent batting average?

Well, past history, for starters: Fantasy owners went ga-ga over Span’s 97 runs, .311 average and 10.4 percent walk rate back in 2009. But they then watched with abject disappointment as his on-base percentage collapsed in subsequent years, a situation compounded by a nasty concussion he suffered in 2011 and a shoulder injury last year that limited him to 128 games. Even after a 3.6 WAR season last year, his wOBA was off by more than 30 points from his 2009 season, and his stock entering 2013 was nowhere near what it was back in his salad days.

Then there’s the dearth of power. We’re talking about just 23 home runs over more than 2,800 career plate appearances (none so far this year) and despite once leading the league in triples, his career ISO barely breaks .100. For Span to be considered a mixed-league outfielder, he needs to keep up his production in his three categories to offset the damage he’ll do to an owner’s batting average and home runs.

So far this year, I’d say the results are mixed. His on-base percentage is acceptable but not ideal, as is his stolen base total, the byproduct of just six attempts. Span’s also suffering from a nasty 19.2 percent infield flyball rate, which will come back down to earth soon enough, and a 14.6 percent strikeout rate that stands to regress back to his career average. As for his health, he had appeared in all but three of the Nationals’ games entering this season, so there’s little reason to believe he’s not 100 percent.

And therein lies the key to Span’s fantasy value: Staying on the field. Assuming a baseline batting average of .280, he could very well produce 90 runs hitting atop a lineup that will produce better as the season unfolds, and I don’t think a return to 20 stolen bases is out of the question. I realize Span, a solid defender, is much more valuable in real life than in fantasy, and in a perfect world, an owner would prefer a more well-rounded stolen base producer than him. But Span does enough things well to justify a hike in his ownership levels, and as the summer progresses, I think that will happen.

Recommendation: It’s time to think about Span in standard mixed leagues again.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

<< Return to Article Currently historic: 300 strikeouts? from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Currently historic: 300 strikeouts?

by Jason Linden
May 15, 2013

Do you know what happened in 2002? Yes, lots of things. Jimmy Carter won the Nobel Peace Prize, for instance. But also, Randy Johnson struck out 334 batters. That is the last time a major league pitcher topped 300 strikeouts.

So far in 2013, Yu Darvish has started eight games. He has 80 strikeouts. If he makes the major league standard 33 starts this year, that would be 330 strikeouts. I don't know if that will happen. (I never know anything. If I did we wouldn't need this column.)

As to Darvish, first, his numbers are appreciably better this year, so we might expect regression. But then, he's throwing his slider a lot more, so maybe that's it. He's 26, so he might still get better.

No one has come close to 300 Ks in recent years. Darvish is certainly the most intriguing candidate thus far, and we'll be keeping an eye on him.

----

Time for a mea culpa. I screwed up last week by saying Cy Young held the single-season BB/9 record. It's actually Carlos Silva, who you only remember because he was active just a few years ago and not because he has a fancy pitching award named for him. Mistakes were made. I feel bad about it.

Still, we need to pay attention to Bartolo Colon. He's starting after this article goes to press, but since we last checked in, he pitched four (very poor) innings without walking a batter. So that's still one walk for the entire season. At 0.22 walks per nine innings, he's currently besting Silva by a couple of tenths. Stay tuned.

----

Strikeout tracking, week 3...

Chris Carter, 57 Ks, 231 K pace: Carter really slowed down substantially this week, but he's still on pace to break the single-season record while providing solid offensive value.

Rickie Weeks 42 Ks, 184 K pace: Striking out 200 times is hard. Not everyone can do it. It's looking like Weeks might not have what it takes. He gets one more week to show us he's up for the challenge.

Adam Dunn, 46 Ks, 201 K pace: Sure, Adam Dunn is down a little, but he's still keeping the pace. His hitting line continues to be anemic, though. He needs to do better.

Will Middlebrooks, 43 Ks, 179 K pace: Middlebrooks is apparently playing hurt and his pace is down. He may be off this list next week.

Pedro Alvarez, 42 Ks, 174 K pace: Ahem. Another one falling off the pace. I expected that eventually the competition would be narrowed to Dunn and Carter, but it's looking like it might happen faster than I thought.

Rick Ankiel, 37 Ks, 154 K pace: Ankiel was cut (something else I missed last week. I promise to hustle to first extra hard in the future), but then the Mets grabbed him. We'll keep him here and see how things materialize.

----

Joey Votto is down to a 137 walk pace. I'm going to drop him for now.

----

The Astros struck out just a little less this week (probably because they don't have Ankiel anymore), but are still averaging almost exactly 10 Ks per game (it's like Yu Darvish is the only starting pitcher they ever face) and are on pace for 1,616. The record is 1,387. I have to keep typing that because I can't believe how not close the Astros are trying to make it.

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The weekly list. It's why you love me...

Doubles:
Todd Helton (573) still needs just one more double to enter the top-20. Come on, Todd, you're really milking it here.

Adrian Beltre keeps hitting doubles and now needs 29 to reach 500.

Home runs:
Albert Pujols' foot hurts. He didn't hit any homers. He still needs 20 to reach 500 and 33 to get into the top 20.

Prince Fielder hit one homer this week and needs 31 to reach 300.

Extra-base hits:
Todd Helton needs 35 extra base hits to get to 1,000. Really thinking about dropping this one. What do you think?

Runs batted in:
Albert Pujols now needs 45 to reach 1,500.

Stolen bases:
Juan Pierre (603) didn't steal any new bases this week. However, he was caught once and now needs only one more to reach 200.

Michael Bourn is back! He even stole a few bases and now needs 21 to get to 300.

Showing up:
Mariano Rivera (1,068) is all by himself in sixth place for the most appearances ever. Hoyt Wilhelm (1,070) and Dennis Eckersley (1,071) may fall by next week.

Andy Pettitte (498), CC Sabathia (391), and Bartolo Colon (382) continue to pitch every five days or so.

Wins:
Sabathia is still hanging out at 195.

Saves:
Jonathan Papelbon (264) needs 36 to get to 300.

Strikeouts:
Once again, Ryan Dempster struck out only four. He now needs 31 to reach 2,000.

Walks:
Pettitte walked one this week and needs 5 to reach 1,000.

Team accomplishments:
Pittsburgh had four wins this week and needs 18 to make it to 10,000.

Thanks for reading. As always, stats are through Monday's games. Tell me if I'm missing anything.

Jason has too many irons in the fire. He fancies himself a fiction writer and also writes about the Reds at Redleg Nation, books at Elephants for Bookends, and everything else at The Winesburg Eagle. Email him at winesburgeagle *at* gmail or follow him on Twitter @jasonlinden

<< Return to Article Mike Moustakas’ hole from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Mike Moustakas’ hole

by Noah Woodward
May 15, 2013

Lately, I’ve been working on a few projects related to the concept of the “opposite field premium.” I think that opposite field hitting ability is something that we don’t pay enough attention to, and that the ability to hit to all fields can only become more valuable to a major league hitter over the next few years.

The majors' best opposite field hitters are better hitters (overall) than the average hitter. Additionally, defenses can't shift against good opposite field hitters. Joey Votto agrees, and so should you.

Considering my interest in this type of work, it makes sense that I’ve been keeping a close eye on Mike Moustakas this year. Almost one out of every two balls that Moustakas hits in play are pulled, but his pull percentage alone doesn’t really do justice to his (in)ability to hit to left field. I don’t think I can come up with words that are strong enough to make this point clear to every reader, so I’ll let the numbers do the talking.

In the table below, I’ll use weighted runs created as a proxy for hitting ability. Weighted runs created (or wRC) measures a hitter's offensive output in runs. The wRC+ metric uses 100 as league average, and we interpret differences from 100 as percentage point differences above/below league average.

image

If you’re wondering how to interpret a negative wRC+ value, I don’t have a great answer for you. FanGraphs defines an awful hitter as someone who posts a 40 wRC+ or lower (a hitter who creates 60 percent less runs than league average). A hitter with a wRC+ of zero technically creates 100 percent less runs than the average player (or zero runs, relative to the average). Moustakas is clearly a very good hitter when he pulls the ball, if not one of the league’s best. But just how awful is Moustakas as an opposite field hitter? It’s hard to tell, actually, because he breaks the scale.

Side note: According to this metric, only two players were worse opposite field hitters than Moustakas was in 2012. Interestingly enough, the first is Jimmy Rollins—a switch hitter. The second is Aaron “I broke my hand because I tried to go the other way” Hill.

I guess it is obvious at this point that Moustakas hasn’t entered 2013 with a more balanced offensive approach. The gap between his pull and opposite field production is even wider now than it was in 2012, and his overall offensive production has been disappointing. Can we attribute Moustakas’ recent struggles to this one, glaring flaw? And what do these splits tell us about Moustakas’ unique swing?

What does he hit where?


Royals fans can find some solace in the fact that Moustakas has average-ish plate discipline. In fact, he has swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone this year (relative to 2012). However, it’s possible that Moustakas has an issue determining which pitches should be pulled, and which pitches should be hit the other way. If you look at the graph below, you’ll see that he is hitting outside pitches to left field—this is a good thing. However, he pulls the ball so often that he likely is also be pulling some of the outside pitches that he sees. I've plotted pitches that Moustakas hit to left field in 2012 below. We see this strike zone from a catcher's point of view.

image

It appears that Moustakas does hit pitches that are thrown on the outer half to left field at least some of the time. He also pulls a good number of these pitches, but he doesn’t have a lot of success doing that. In an earlier article I wrote on Zack Cozart's struggles at the plate, I argued that some dead pull hitters tend roll over and hit lazy ground balls on pulled outside pitches.

The hole


We can get a better idea of how well Moustakas handles fastballs on the outer half if we compare his results to league averages. Below, I’ve pulled up two graphs that do just that (courtesy of baseballheatmaps.com). Moustakas is a better hitter than the rest of major league baseball in the green/red areas of the strike zone, and a worse hitter than average in the blue zones. Again, both strike zones are shown from the catcher’s point of view.

image

With these plots, we can confirm what I originally thought to be true. Moustakas can’t hit pitches that are thrown on the lower outer edge of the plate. My guess is that he has trouble with these pitches because a pitch thrown to the outside corner can’t be effectively pulled by any hitter. I’ll have a full study on this topic soon, but for now you’ll either have to agree with me or write an angry comment below.

These negative run values can be partially explained by fly outs to left field (recall Moustakas’ ridiculous opposite field fly ball rate), but they can also be explained by swinging strikes. Moustakas swings and misses at about the league average rate, but he whiffs most often at pitches low and on the left side of the plate. What’s more, the area of the strike zone in which he swings and misses most often sits just below the area in which he often flies out to left field.

image

Mike Moustakas has a swing that clearly wasn’t built to hit pitches thrown low and away from the lefty. You may not call the outside corner a hole, but Moustakas’ current approach isn’t as versatile as it could be. I think his dead pull ability is extremely impressive, as he was able to heavily rely on it last year while remaining somewhat productive. But is Moustakas still a bona fide major league hitter if pitchers begin to pound the outside corner? Maybe not.

Noah can be reached via email at nowoodward15 AT gmail.com. You can check out his other articles here.

<< Return to Article BOB: How bad is the Marlins’ attendance? from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

BOB: How bad is the Marlins’ attendance?

by Brian Borawski
May 15, 2013

Marlins close upper deck for weeknight games


With the potential for the Miami Marlins to have a historically bad team on the field, ownership has decided to close the upper bowl for weeknight games until attendance recovers. Despite being in just its second season, Marlins Field is last in the National League in attendance.

The Marlins have committed to closing the upper bowl for the next two weeknight home stands and while they haven’t said they’ll close it on weeknight games for the rest of the season, I don’t see attendance picking up anytime soon, so my guess is this move will stick.

The Marlins know all about cost cutting, so this will just be one more way for the team to live on a thinner budget. The fans who have season tickets in the upper bowl will be moved to the lower bowl on those weeknights that it’s closed. Fans can still buy upper bowl tickets, but if they show up and it’s closed, they'll be moved down to the lower deck.


Astros president steps down


George Postolos, who played a big part in Houston Astros owner Jim Crane finally landing a baseball team, stepped down from his post as the team's president and chief executive officer. Postolos worked with Crane to try to acquire both the Texas Rangers and the Chicago Cubs, but it was finally the Astros that turned out to be the prize for Crane. Since the purchase, Postolos has been in charge of rebranding the franchise, which has been tough because of the team's on-field troubles the past couple of years.

Postolos will go back to his consulting practice, where he advises his clients on acquisitions and strategies in buying professional sports teams. Postolos says the decision to leave the team was his alone. There was no comment from Crane on the departure.

Cubs stadium renovation faces first hurdle

The first vote on the Wrigley Field renovations could happen as early as next month with the Chicago City Council considering changing the number of night games the Cubs can play. The proposal was introduced to the council last week. It mirrors the agreement Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, Alderman Tom Tunney and the Cubs reached earlier in the month. The proposal includes increasing the number of evening games from 30 to 40, or up to 46 if MLB requests. It also lets the Cubs host four concerts and lets the team change up to six Friday game times from 1:20 to 3:05.

The renovations include $500 million of stadium improvements as well as a redevelopment of the area surrounding the ballpark. The controversial issues are a 6,000 square foot video board and the amount of advertising the team plans on the surrounding development.

Brian Borawski is a member of SABR's Business of Baseball Committee and writes about the Detroit Tigers at his own website, TigerBlog. He welcomes comments, questions and suggestions via e-mail.

<< Return to Article And That Happened from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

And That Happened

by Craig Calcaterra
May 14, 2013



Craig writes the HardballTalk blog for NBC Sports.com

<< Return to Article The daily grind: 5-14-13 from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The daily grind: 5-14-13

by Brad Johnson
May 14, 2013

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.


Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): I'm nervous recommending Scott Kazmir, but it seems like conditions are in his favor. He faces the Phillies and is coming off a superb outing against the A's.

John Lackey is another guy on the retread rack. He'll face the Rays, who seem light-hitting but have actually been a top 10 offense.

John Gast is a potentially interesting choice for those who are comfortable playing minor league success. From what I can gather, Gast is "live-armed," can struggle with command, and has a high ceiling as a reliever.

Andrew Cashner is still out there, waiting to hit triple digits on your team.

Pitcher (bum): The match-up between R.A. Dickey and Barry Zito could provide some 1990s era offense.

Jeff Francis has one of his best assignments so far—the Cubs. That isn't stopping me from recommending against him.

Dillon Gee spent a lot of time in my "to start" section. This isn't me throwing him under the bus, the Cardinals are a tough offense to overcome.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston is the top pick for power output.

Chris Johnson will face Patrick Corbin in a battle to see who can defy regression longer.

Jonny Gomes will start but Matt Moore isn't easy pickin's. Too bad he can't face Francis too.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra is worth a look.

As noted in the comments yesterday, Charlie Blackmon will likely see some of the time I originally slated for Eric Young Jr. Still, Young was already starting frequently, so he's should see a few more games now.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): Phil Hughes has settled in after a shaky start to the season and has a favorable assignment against the Mariners. He's also 50 percent owned, so he may not be available to many readers.

For some reason, I'm reticent to recommend Mike Leake, even against the lowly Marlins. There's nothing in his peripherals to justify that reticence besides a low-ish strikeout rate.

Pitcher (bum): For once, I'm going to recommend using the Phillies offense. Corey Kluber is coming off a meltdown outing, though he had previously looked sharp.

Mike Pelfrey will face a struggling White Sox team in a battle to see who can struggle more.

Shaun Marcum has been a mess thus far, and like Gee, he'll also need to turn it around against the Cardinals. Eesh.

Wade Davis faces Barry Enright in what promises to be a high scoring affair. I usually like Davis, but a match-up against the Angels is off-putting.

Hitter (power): Gomes faces another difficult lefty in David Price.

Tomorrow is a good day to try Colby Rasmus against Ryan Vogelsong.

Domonic Brown draws Kluber.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain would be a nice addition against Enright.

Try Nate Schierholtz against Jon Garland.

Noteworthy news


Bryce Harper is showing the portion of his skill set that most worries me. He lost a fight with a wall yesterday that has left him day-to-day with some stitches and a possibly jammed shoulder. Harper has that Griffeyesque penchant for leaving it all on the field (and then some).

Weather watch


Hooray for more great weather.


Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

<< Return to Article How much do hot/cold starts matter? from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

How much do hot/cold starts matter?

by Greg Simons
May 14, 2013

Recently, Baseball Prospectus reprinted an article by Rany Jazayerli that estimated how teams would perform based on: 1) the previous three years' results, and 2) their current-year record. His goal was to evaluate whether teams that came out of the gate much better or worse than they had performed in the recent past indicate a new performance level or merely upcoming regression.

My goal is to use Jazayerli's formula to look at: 1) how teams were expected to do this year based on past results, and 2) how this season's early returns have impacted teams' anticipated fortunes. His formula weighs the previous three year's records (plus a regression-to-.500 factor) as approximately:

0.45*Year N-1  +  0.30*.500  +  0.15*Year N-2  +  0.10*Year N-3

Given these variables, here were the projected 2013 standings before play began.

AL East      W   L
Yankees      91  71
Rays         88  74
Orioles      83  79
Blue Jays    78  84
Red Sox      78  84

AL Central   W   L
Tigers       86  76
White Sox    83  79
Royals       74  88
Indians      74  88
Twins        73  89

AL West      W   L
Rangers      89  73
Athletics    86  76
Angels       85  77
Mariners     74  88
Astros       65  97


NL East      W   L
Braves       89  73
Nationals    87  75
Phillies     85  77
Mets         77  85
Marlins      74  88

NL Central   W   L
Reds         89  73
Cardinals    86  76
Brewers      83  79
Pirates      77  85
Cubs         70  92

NL West      W   L
Giants       89  73
Dodgers      83  79
D'backs      81  81
Padres       78  84
Rockies      72  90

There aren't too many big surprises in those numbers, though a few things jump out when compared to THT's preseason predictions.

From a big-picture perspective, it's odd to see four of the six projected division winners with exactly 89 victories, only one team forecast to win more than 90 games, and a single franchise pegged for a sub-70 victory total. Such is regression to the mean.

In the AL East, we thought Toronto's influx of talent from Miami—something the formula would know nothing about—would launch the Blue Jays to a division title, while Rany's rules would leave them in a battle for the cellar. (We'll talk about the "wisdom" of our prediction a little later.) We also thought Baltimore would flop back to the cellar, while Jazayerli's formula keeps the Orioles above .500.

In the AL Central, THTers flip-flopped Cleveland and Chicago, but that's not too much a deviation from history's forecast.

Both systems projected a three-way battle for the AL West title.

Aside from switching the top two teams in the tight race for the NL East championship, we matched up well.

Similar to it's AL counterpart, the NL Central had one mid-pack flip-flop vs. Rany's predictions.

We had the free-spending Los Angeles Dodgers emerging as NL West champs ahead of Jazayerli's Giants, with the rest of the division the same.

Of course, that's how we and Rany's system expected the end-of-season standings to look. What happens between Game 1 and Game 162—the shape of the season on a day-to-day basis—is anybody's guess. We won't know how the two predictions methods compare until October, so that's something worth revisiting at the appropriate time.

-----

For now, we have the opportunity to apply the second part of the Jazayerli methodology to see how teams' early-season results have impacted their expected overall season records. As we approach the quarter pole, some teams are spot on with where they were expected to be, while others have seen big deviations. Below are the updated projections, division by division, which we'll follow with a look at some of the more interesting cases.

Standings through May 12. Rounding caused some Change values not to match the cited win/loss adjustments.

AL East      W   L   Change
Yankees      96  66  +5
Orioles      89  73  +6
Rays         86  76  -2
Red Sox      84  78  +7
Blue Jays    71  91  -6
Is there no stopping the Yankees juggernaut? Even with nearly $100 million—about four full Astros rosters—of player salaries on the disabled list, New York is tied for baseball's best record. This hot start has boosted the Yankees' major league-leading projection of 91 victories up to a stellar 96. It seems that rumors of the Yankees' demise have been greatly exaggerated.

The O's are showing that last season's awesome record in one-run and extra-inning games may have been prescient in general if not in the same specific manner.

The Rays? Yawn.

Boston is bouncing back well from last year's cellar-dwelling debacle, though the Red Sox's red-hot first month has become more of a soft orange glow.

And then we get to Toronto. Rany's formula didn't expect great things, but the Blue Jays' deals with the Marlins and Mets—in which they acquired Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey and others—led many, including us, to forecast a strong season up north. However, it seems the only thing Toronto acquired was expensive misery, as thus far the Jays have underperformed even their modest 78-win prediction by several games.

AL Central   W   L   Change
Tigers       89  73  +2
Indians      81  81  +7
Royals       78  84  +4
White Sox    78  84  -6
Twins        76  86  +3
Detroit continues to be the class of the division, ticking its numbers up slightly with a solid start to the season.

Selfishly, the best thing about Cleveland's nice beginning to the campaign is that the Indians now are projected to finish in second place, where the plurality of THT voters placed them. A .500 record is not what the Tribe is after, so they need to keep their improvements intact to maintain their early-season gains.

Ah, the Royals, steadily drifting along aimlessly, though at least these days they're mediocre instead of awful.

And the next-best thing about the early-season results is Chicago dropping to a projected fourth-place finish (percentage points behind KC), where we put the Sox before the season began. The Pale Hose need to right the ship or their season will be Dunn in.

Minnesota is moderately relevant at the moment, but that's unlikely to last.

AL West      W   L   Change
Rangers      96  66  +6
Athletics    83  79  -3
Angels       77  85  -9
Mariners     75  87  +1
Astros       56  106 -9
Texas is acting as if losing Josh Hamilton was no big deal, though it's the pitching that's leading the way. Despite playing in one of the game's better hitters' parks, the Rangers have allowed the fewest runs in the American League, second in all of baseball.

Oakland will need another late-season charge, something the A's have excelled at in the last decade, if they're going to chase down Texas again. Don't count on it, but don't be surprised by it, either.

Los Angeles is acting as if signing Josh Hamilton was no big deal. His .203/.253/.331 triple-slash line sure hasn't helped the Angels' cause, and neither has Albert Pujols' .234/.317/.390 line. Those are mighty sad returns on $50 million-a-year investments. Maybe they should just go out and get more Mike Trouts.

Seattle has Felix Hernandez and ... well, that's about it.

Ugh! Houston was expected to be awful, forecast to lose 97 games. Reality is so much worse. At least they finally reached double-digit wins. However, at their current pace, the '62 Mets are in their sights.

NL East      W   L   Change
Braves       90  72  +1
Nationals    87  75  +0
Phillies     81  81  -4
Mets         73  89  -4
Marlins      63  99  -11
Atlanta and Washington are right where everyone expected them to be, battling atop the division and ahead of the rest of the pack.

The Phillies are a bit worse than history suggested they would be, but age and injuries are taking their toll rapidly. Unlike the Yankees, the Phillies haven't been able to take other teams' offcasts and turn them into stars. Put another way, Delmon Young is no Vernon Wells.

No one expected the NL New York team to do much, and, well, it hasn't. Maybe the Mets need to find an Iron Man and Thor, and bring back Hulk to go with their Captain America.

Everyone knew Miami was going to stink, but the Marlins' current 115-loss pace is even more odious than expected. While they've already dropped 11 games off their preseason pace, the miniscule bit of good news is that the Marlins currently are projected to lose "only" 99 games. Something tells me that number will hit triple digits by the All-Star break.

NL Central   W   L   Change
Cardinals    93  69  +7
Reds         91  71  +2
Pirates      83  79  +6
Brewers      78  84  -5
Cubs         68  94  -2
St. Louis has gone from being a team expected to battle for a Wild Card to tied for baseball's best record. The Cardinals may end up duking it out for a playoff spot by the time their year is done, but the seven-game bump they've enjoyed since the campaign began certainly positions them much better in their quest for a spot in October.

Cincinnati has edged its projected record up a bit, and the Reds have some key players coming back from injury. They'll be in the hunt all year long, just as everyone anticipated.

Pittsburgh is going to have a winning record! Book it. It's done. What's that? The Pirates have done this before the last couple of years? Oh, yeah. Well, this time it's for real. Maybe. Maybe ... ???

A recent 1-9 stretch has turned things sour for Milwaukee after an earlier nine-game winning streak. The Brew Crew's yo-yo season could bring them back up into contention again, but the recent news that Corey Hart could be out longer than expected won't help their cause.

Chicago is about as bad as expected, but at least the Cubs are locking up their young stars for the time when they once again will be relevant.

NL West      W   L   Change
Giants       92  70  +4
D-backs      85  77  +3
Rockies      78  84  +6
Dodgers      77  85  -6
Padres       75  87  -3
Matt Cain has stunk, and Ryan Vogelsong has been much worse than that, yet San Francisco is playing very well. How are the Giants doing it? Madison Bumgarner has been fantastic, Barry Zito is shocking the world with a terrific year, Tim Lincecum has been solid, and the hitters are spreading the wealth. The starting pitchers may shuffle their roles as the year goes on, but this is a pretty good formula for success.

The Diamondbacks were seen as a possible sleeper team, which means some people overestimated them and others underestimated them. They been slightly better than expected, so I guess they fit the mold so far.

Colorado's hot start has upped its expected record by a half-dozen games, but the Rockies still are forecast to have a losing record. They'd probably be happy just to avoid the cellar.

Especially if it came at the expense of Los Angeles. And speaking of expense, LA's boosting of its payroll well north of the $200 million mark was supposed to be evidence that the Dodgers were going to be serious contenders this season and a team that makes runs deep into October year after year. Yeah, and they were supposed to have eight starting pitchers, too. It's funny how these things work out.

San Diego ... What is there to say? The Padres were supposed to be bad, and they are. The Padres' minor league system has lots of depth, but until it starts spitting out some more good players, many fans will be more tempted by the beach than by the local nine.

-----

We'll come back later in the year to check again on which teams are holding their own compared to their preseason forecasts, which ones are ahead of the curve, and which are lagging behind their expected pace.

Greg Simons finally, sadly has conceded that he won't have an MLB playing career. However, in his dreams, he's still the second coming of Ozzie Smith. Please don't wake him up, though you can e-mail him at gregbsimons AT yahoo DOT com.

<< Return to Article 25th anniversary: The Jose Oquendo Game from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

25th anniversary: The Jose Oquendo Game

by Chris Jaffe
May 14, 2013



History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. Oh, and now he's on twitter.

<< Return to Article Jonathan Schoop and the value of role players from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Jonathan Schoop and the value of role players

by Jeff Moore
May 14, 2013

I'm going to preface this by saying that Jonathan Schoop is a very good prospect and I believe that he will find his niche as a quality big leaguer and have a nice career. He can do a lot of things well on a baseball field and will help a team, likely the Baltimore Orioles, very soon, perhaps even this season.

But thanks to his place next to Manny Machado near the top of most Orioles farm system rankings the past few years, expectations for Schoop as a centerpiece of the team's future may have him set up to let down a rejuvenated Charm City fan base.

Again, there are a lot of things Schoop can do well on a baseball field. He's still playing shortstop, and doing so relatively well, especially now that he no longer has to give way to the development of Machado. He may outgrow the position, but his athleticism should allow him to play it, at least on a part-time/fill-in basis, in the major leagues. He's currently splitting between short and second base, a position that will likely be his permanent destination in the majors, although he may never settle into one spot at baseball's highest level. That's a testament to his versatility more than anything else.

That versatility almost ensures a career in the majors for Schoop no matter how his bat develops. In fact, his ability to play three infield positions (and likely both corner outfield spots, when he's inevitably asked to do it) would make him worthy of a spot on most major league rosters right now. But worthy of a roster spot seems like a long way down for Schoop, who has been a top-five prospect in the Orioles system for two years, a top-100 prospect per Baseball America before the 2012 season, and a starter on the Netherlands WBC team, for which he played very well.

Before this season, I made the case that this was a make-or-break year for Schoop at the plate. So far this year, Schoop is hitting .268/.331/.368 in Triple-A, which is remarkably similar to his .245/.324/.368 he hit in a full season of Double-A last year. It's not the kind of impact offensive production the Orioles had hoped for when he hit .290/.349/.432 as a 19-year-old in 2011, but it's also not terrible for someone who can productively play both middle infield positions.

But a closer look shows a simple problem for Schoop—he crushes lefties and is basically ineffective against righties.

For his career, Schoop has an .877 OPS against left-handed pitching, but just a .689 OPS against righties. Here are the breakdowns the past three seasons:

2011

Split             G  PA  AB   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
                                                                      
vs RHP 
as RHB   117 397 359 100 20  3  7  50 27 46 .279 .335 .409 .744
vs LHP 
as RHB    72 170 152  48  4  2  6  37 15 30 .316 .381 .487 .868 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/13/2013.

2012

Split             G  PA  AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
                                                                     
vs RHP 
as RHB   121 387 339 74 16  0  8  41 30 78 .218 .291 .336 .628
vs LHP 
as RHB    71 168 146 45  8  1  6  22 20 25 .308 .399 .500 .899 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/13/2013.

2013

Split            G  PA  AB 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
vs RHP 
as RHB   33 110 101  3  0  3  11  7 19 .257 .318 .376 .694
vs LHP 
as RHB   19  34  30  3  0  0   9  3  7 .300 .382 .400 .782 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/13/2013.

You should be able to see the trend.

The case for this being a make-or-break season for Schoop was based on his need to prove he can hit right-handed pitching to become more than just a utility man on the wrong side of a platoon. It's obviously a small sample size this season, but when the small sample heads down the path of a previous trend, there's more validity to it. For Schoop to prove he can be an every day player, it would take a dramatic change of course from his current trajectory.

That is not to say that his current trajectory is something to be ashamed of. A player who can play five positions on the field and not just hit, but dominate, left-handed pitching is a valuable commodity to have on a roster. It's just not what the Orioles were hoping for or what their fan base has come to expect.

That's one of the inherent problems with prospect rankings—they require context. Schoop is currently the best position prospect in the Orioles system, despite a ceiling that may very well be that of a utility player, mainly because the Orioles farm system is exceptionally void of impact hitters. Schoop could carve out a career the likes of anyone from Jeff Keppinger to Martin Prado, both of which could help the Orioles in different ways, but as the top hitter in their system, the expectations have been set higher than that.

Which is a shame, especially of those expectations in any way determine the Orioles handling of Schoop. He's likely the player today that he's going to be in the future, and doesn't have too much development left in the minors. He's also likely a better option at second base than the Ryan Flaherty/Alexi Casilla disaster they're running out there right now—especially against lefties.

Schoop should be in Baltimore soon and can help this Orioles this season, but the expectations can't be the same as they were for Machado just because Schoop is the best prospect left in the system. He's going to fill an important role on the Orioles roster sooner rather than later, but it's important to keep his abilities in context to avoid disappointment in the future.

References and Resources
http://www.mlbprospectwatch.com/mlb_prospect_watch/2013/02/make-or-break-year-jonathan-schoop.html


Jeff Moore is the creator of MLBProspectWatch.com, your one-stop site for all the information you need about minor league prospects. He can be reached via e-mail at mlbprospectwatch AT gmail DOT com and can be followed on Twitter at @MLBPW

<< Return to Article THT Awards from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

THT Awards

by John Barten
May 14, 2013

Welcome to the awards.

All stats are for Monday, May 6 through Sunday, May 12. Please see the week one column for category explanations.

This week’s proof that assigning wins and losses to a pitcher is an archaic practice that must stop

Good luck division

Phil Hughes got the win in a game in which he was punished to the tune of six runs in five and two thirds by the Royals. But Wade Davis was crushed by Lyle Overbay and the Yankees, giving Hughes the easy path to victory.

Mark Buehrle was hammered for seven runs in six innings on nine hits and two walks. Six of the seven runs came on home runs by Evan Longoria and Luke Scott. Longoria’s was a grand slam. Buehrle avoided the loss when Fernando Rodney and the Rays bullpen allowed five runs in four innings and blew the lead.

Pedro Hernandez avoided the loss despite making it through only two innings for the Twins. Hernandez allowed six runs on seven hits and a walk. The loss went to Red Sox starter Allen Webster, who was shelled for eight runs. Felix Doubront chipped in with another six runs allowed in his five and a third. Hernandez made it out of there with a no-decision.

Dan Haren allowed four runs in six innings on nine hits and a walk, striking out three. But Doug Fister was touched up for five runs in three and Haren got the win.

Mat Latos was hammered for seven runs in six innings on nine hits and three walks. He got the win as the Reds lineup took Hiram Burgos behind the woodshed for 12 runs in three innings.

Jason Vargas avoided the loss despite allowing five runs in five and two thirds on 10 hits and two walks. Hector Ambriz blew the hold for the Astros.

Barry Enright didn’t make it out of the fourth inning, yielding five runs on four hits and two walks, striking out two. But the Angels bullpen took it the rest of the way and Dylan Axelrod allowed six runs in his six innings and Enright avoided the loss.

Jason Hammel allowed six runs in four frames on eight hits and two walks. The Orioles bullpen threw six scoreless innings against the Twins and the Baltimore lineup forced extra innings before eventually winning the game.

Burch Smith and Jeremy Hellickson combined to allow 12 runs in seven and two thirds. The majority of those innings were thrown by Hellickson as Smith failed to record an out in the second before he was sent to the showers. Neither took the loss.

Vance Worley got the win for the Twins despite yielding five runs in five and a third to the Orioles.

Bad luck division

Matt Harvey pitched nine scoreless innings, allowing only one hit, walking nobody, striking out 12. He didn’t get the win. Hector Santiago was the opposing starter. He shut out the Mets for the first seven frames, allowing four hits, walking two, striking out eight. You probably can figure out for yourself that he joined Harvey in the no decision club.

As I write this, James Shields has a 2-3 record with a 2.48 ERA. He pitched in two games this week. On Monday he threw eight scoreless innings, allowing only two hits and two walks, striking out nine. He was lifted for closer Greg Holland, who allowed a run to the White Sox, ensuring that Shields would not receive the win. He posted an 85 game score and didn’t get the win because the Royals lineup tallied only one run and because of his bullpen, which generally is one of the better ones in the American League.

Then, on Saturday, Shields pitched eight innings against the Yankees, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks. He took the loss as the Kansas City lineup scored two runs. All three of his losses this season have come in quality starts. In eight trips to the mound this season he only has one start that doesn’t count as a quality one.

In the Monday Shields start, opposing starter Chris Sale went seven and a third, allowing just one run to the Royals on six hits, walking none, striking out five. He was in line for the loss when Holland blew the lead and ensured that he would only take a no-decision in the contest.

In Harvey’s second start, he threw seven innings, allowing two runs on five hits and two walks, striking out four Pirates. He failed to get the win.

Tommy Milone gave the A’s seven innings, allowing one run on five hits, walking none, striking out five. He took the loss as Zach McAllister and a pair of Cleveland relievers shut out the white elephants.

Craig Kimbrel’s third blown save of the season wiped out Kris Medlen’s chance of getting the win after the Atlanta starter threw seven innings, allowing two runs on four hits, walking two, striking out six.

Lance Lynn pitched seven innings, allowing two runs on four hits, walking one, striking out eight. He took his first loss of the 2013 campaign as Travis Wood and the Cubs held the Cardinals to one run.

Hiroki Kuroda went seven innings, gave up two runs on seven hits and a walk in Coors Field. He took the loss.

A.J. Burnett also pitched seven, allowing two runs. He posted a game score of 70 with two hits allowed, walking four, striking out nine. He took the loss, as Felix Hernandez is good at baseballing.

Ricky Nolasco took the loss in a game that ended 1-0. So despite Nolasco’s seven innings, yielding one run on four hits and one walk, striking out nine, he had no chance at the win.

Barry Zito lost the win when Sergio Romo blew the save. Zito had pitched seven innings, had allowed one run on four hits and no walks to the Phillies.

Ian Kennedy stuck with the theme of this category and threw seven innings. He allowed two runs on six hits and three walks. The lineup didn’t score enough runs early enough to get Kennedy the win, which went to reliever Tony Sipp after the Phillies bullpen allowed a run and the Diamondbacks pen did not.

Courtesy of a Drew Storen blown hold, Gio Gonzalez’s seven scoreless innings went to waste. Gio allowed only two hits and one walk, striking out six.

Brandon McCarthy and Kyle Kendrick combined to allow two runs in 15 innings on 13 hits, walking none, striking out nine. McCarthy was on track for the win until Heath Bell blew the save.

After Buehrle threw an awful game and didn’t take the loss, he pitched a very good one and didn’t get the win. On Saturday, he combined with Clay Buchholz to throw 15 innings, allowing three runs on 11 hits and five walks, striking out nine. Neither got the victory.

Vulture Award

In the Buehrle/Buchholz game, Darren Oliver blew the lead only to watch as an Adam Lind home run in the next half inning made him a winning pitcher.

Justin Wilson blew the lead for the Pirates and walked away with the win over the Mets.

Wes Littleton Award

In protecting a three run lead in extra innings, Jim Johnson faced Ryan Doumit, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Parmelee and Wilkin Ramirez.

Please hold the applause

Upon entering the game with a three-run lead, Jake McGee proceeded to allow a double and a home run before settling down against the murderer’s row that is Maicer Izturis, Mark DeRosa and Brett Lawrie and ending the inning. McGee got the hold.

Preston Claiborne recorded two outs and allowed three to reach base. He was credited with a hold.

Any sufficiently advanced defense is indistinguishable from pitching

Most of the time I use this category to highlight pitchers who are abnormally lucky on batted balls but from time to time I feel it necessary to run counter to that and highlight a game where a pitcher saw abnormally bad luck on batted balls. You will have to try very hard to find a performance more fitting than Alex Cobb's this week. If you were paying attention at all, you already know he struck out 13 while going only four and two thirds. You know he allowed a run in an inning in which he struck out four batters. I will add to that the fact that he didn’t record a fly ball out and he allowed two home runs.

He allowed only seven fair balls and five of them, including the two home runs, were hits.

Only 10 batters he faced didn’t strike out. Two of those plate appearances were the home runs. Two were walkso. Cobb hit another batter with a pitch. Two others grounded out. The other three all reached base via single.

So he was preposterously unlucky on fly balls and unlucky on balls in play. He compounded that by throwing a wild pitch, by balking, and by hitting Nick Hundley with a pitch. That is just insane even without the historical weirdness documented elsewhere on the net.

Getting back to the conventional theme of the category, Jason Marquis struck out only one of the 28 Marlins he faced. But he was fortunate, as out of all of those balls in play, only five managed to find open pasture and Marquis ended up with the win] after eight innings of shutout baseball.

Hiroki Kuroda struck out one of the 30 Royals he faced on Sunday and still managed to avoid a lot of damage, watching only six batted balls in seven and two thirds land in play for hits. He took the win.

Joe Carter Award

Mark Trumbo and Ian Desmond each drove in six runs this week. Trumbo did it while hitting .200/.231/.360 with two extra base hits and one walk in 26 plate appearances. Desmond did it while hitting .389/.450/.833 with four extra base hits and two walks in 20 PA.

Jonny Gomes received only 14 PA and managed to drive in five runs. Upping the degree of difficulty even more is the fact that he hit .083/.143/.333 in those 14 appearances. Indeed, four of the five runs came on a grand slam and the other was the result of a sacrifice fly in the same game, a game the Red Sox lost handily.

Jimmy Rollins and Lyle Overbay each plated five. Rollins ended the week with a .267/.273/.433 line while Overbay went .261/.292/.478.

Sanchez Award

Salvador Perez struck out only twice in 24 PA, which tells you that the seven hits he collected were no fluke. Unfortunately only two of those hits went for extra bases and he did not walk, leading to an empty .292/.292/.375.

Andre Ethier batted a limp .273/.292/.364 in 23 PA.

Harmon Killebrew Award

Shin-Soo Choo reached via hit only four times in 27 PA. On the other hand, three of those four hits were for extra bases and two of those were home runs. He also walked six times for an improbable .193/.393/.524.

Dan Uggla did what Dan Uggla has been known to do and smashed, walked, and flailed his way to a .240/.345/.560 week.

Uggla’s teammate Justin Upton went .227/.393/.364. He reached base by way of a hit five times in 28 PA and by way of base on balls six times.

Prince Fielder posted a .211/.348/.474 in 22 PA.

Steve Balboni Award

Ryan Howard struck out 13 times in 29 PA and that resulted in a .148/.207/.259 week.

Brandon Moss fanned 12 times in 28 PA and batted .148/.179/.296.

B.J. Upton, Colby Rasmus, and Derek Norris each struck out 11 times. They ended the week batting .150/.320/.150/, .150/.292/.450, and .200/.273/.400 respectively.

In the battle to decide which Astro could strike out the most this week, J.D. Martinez did yeoman’s work in whiffing in eight of his 14 plate appearances but was outmatched by Jimmy Paredes, who was called out on strikes 10 times in 23 PA. Oh, and since you are probably wondering how they did with those strikeout rates in mind, they ended the week at .071/.071/.143 and .182/.217/.318 respectively.

Alfonso Soriano fanned nine times in 21 PA. He lacks the secondary skills to make that work most of the time. .250/.286/.350.

Drew Stubbs fanned nine times in 21 PA and went .143/.143/.143.

Oh, and Adam Dunn had a rough week, batting .071/.188/.071 with seven strikeouts in 16 PA.

Among other notable batters who struggled with high strikeout rates and associated poor overall lines were Yonder Alonso, Ike Davis, Michael Morse, Josh Willingham, John Buck, and Dexter Fowler.

Three true outcomes

Choo TTO’ed his way into the Killebrew category above. He smacked two home runs, walked six times, and struck out seven times in his 27 PA.

Jason Kipnis posted a two-three-eight TTO line in 33 PA this week.

Uggla and Mark Reynolds each went two-four-nine. Uggla did it in 29 PA, Reynolds in 23.

B.J. Upton failed to homer, but zero-five-11 in 25 PA is impressive. His brother went zero-six-seven in 28 PA.

Rasmus gave the Blue Jays a two-four-11 in 24 PA.

The anti-TTO

Michael Brantley posted a zero-one-one in 27 PA.

And Marco Scutaro posted a very rare one-zero-zero in 30 PA.

This week’s MVP

AL: Joe Mauer reached base 21 times this week in 35 PA. He collected 16 hits and six walks. His .533/.600/.833 monster of a week improved his 2013 line from .286/.364/.400 to .341/.418/.496.

Also of note, Longoria went .464/.531/.964 with five singles, five doubles, and three home runs in 32 PA.

NL: Scutaro rode a contact-heavy approach to a brilliant week, going .467/.467/.767 with eight singles, four doubles, a triple, and a home run in 30 PA.

John Barten writes the THT Awards weekly feature. Please send suggestions, comments, corrections, and input to his email address. Follow him on Twitter at JohnMBarten

<< Return to Article The daily grind: 5-13-13 from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The daily grind: 5-13-13

by Brad Johnson
May 13, 2013

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.


Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): Hector Santiago will face the Twins today. He sports a 23 percent ownership rate and has posted strong peripherals including an increased whiff rate that has led to a strikeout per inning and low walk rate.

Justin Grimm has a solid match-up away in Oakland. The Athletics can be a challenge for stream-quality pitchers, especially if they don't have their best command and control that day.

Juan Nicasio might be a bit of a stretch, but a game against the Cubs' mediocre offense should help him.

Pitcher (bum): Luis Mendoza will face Joe Blanton—a game that promises to be high scoring.

Jeremy Hefner may have a hard time against the Cardinals.

This could be a big day for the Indians offense. Both David Phelps and Vidal Nuno are exploitable.

Hitter (power): It's a good day for a double play from Travis Hafner.

Travis Snider is off everybody's radar, but Marco Estrada is a good place to target his first long ball of the season.

Hitter (speed): Michael Brantley might get into two games, but I'm guessing he'll actually platoon with Drew Stubbs today.

Eric Young Jr. should be starting quite regularly with Michael Cuddyer on the disabled list.

Lorenzo Cain should like facing Blanton.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): Scott Kazmir is coming off two strong outings. In a very small sample, he's pitching like it's 2008 again. The Phillies are exploitable by lefties, which makes it easier to overcome my general distrust of Kazmir.

I never thought I'd still be able to recommend Andrew Cashner. He should be owned in most keeper formats, although his redraft value is probably in line with his ownership rate of 27 percent.

John Lackey will struggle to win the game since he's opposed by Matt Moore, but a match-up against the Rays is fairly friendly.

You may not want to start him, but keep an eye on John Gast. He's filling in for Jake Westbrook and his minor league numbers suggest the potential for solid results.

Pitcher (bum): I don't play feelings very often, but I have a feeling the Blue Jays are going to tee off on Barry Zito. R.A. Dickey's turned into a bit of a punching bag too; he really needs to go to the disabled list and recover.

Jeff Francis starting means Cubs hitters should go wild.

Dillon Gee seems like he needs to reboot. St. Louis is not the place to do it.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston should see action against Francis.

Patrick Corbin is going to turn pumpkin eventually. So is Chris Johnson, which makes this an interesting platoon option. My money is on Corbin winning.

Jonny Gomes has that tough assignment against Moore.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra is worth streaming tomorrow.

Hang onto Young Jr.

Noteworthy news


I have a graduation to attend today, so don't expect any responses. Oh, you expected real major league baseball news...

Apparently there was a kerfuffle over the use of some pink-labeled bats yesterday. Louisville Slugger owns exclusive rights to brand pink bats used by MLB players. Other manufacturers can make pink bats, but they cannot be labeled. I'm not sure why that qualifies as noteworthy, but I've noted it.

Anthony Rizzo was the latest beneficiary of the now common, pre-arbitration contract extension. He's inked for another seven seasons.

Weather watch


No weather to speak of although the Yankees and Indians doubleheader will be chilly and windy.


Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

<< Return to Article And That Happened from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

And That Happened

by Craig Calcaterra
May 13, 2013



Craig writes the HardballTalk blog for NBC Sports.com

<< Return to Article 30th anniversary: Reggie’s 2,000th K from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

30th anniversary: Reggie’s 2,000th K

by Chris Jaffe
May 13, 2013



History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. Oh, and now he's on twitter.

<< Return to Article NL Central division update: May edition from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

NL Central division update: May edition

by Jason Linden
May 13, 2013

image

For many years, the NL Central has been maligned as one of the weaker divisions in baseball. The departure of the Astros this season improved the division, but it was expected that the rest of the teams would suffer from not having Houston to kick around anymore. I certainly expected that to happen.

Remarkably, as I write this (with a few games still to be completed Sunday night), the NL Central has, collectively, the best record in the NL and is second only to the AL East in all of baseball. Thus, for the moment, the state of the NL Central is strong.

Cubs (15-22)


If there was one thing everyone knew for sure about the Central this year, it was that the Cubs were going to finish last. Interestingly, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Just about anyway you slice it, the Cubs' win total is lower than it should be. Various methods of projecting their expected win total put the total anywhere from 16 to 19 wins—a .500 team, roughly. How are they doing it?

For the Cubs, this year is all about pitching. Even with Edwin Jackson's disastrous beginning to the season (6.02 ERA), the Cubs rank third in the NL with a 3.56 ERA from their starters. And though they've been a little lucky, the advanced metrics seem to agree that the Cubs have a very solid starting staff so far this year.

Offensively, it's been less promising. The Cubs don't really hit, and they aren't going to. They may, however, bat well enough to muster something like a .500 record.

I'll be honest, when I sat down to write this article, I was prepared to write the standard "Cubs stink, sun rises" section you'd all expect, but looking at what they've done this year, it seems like they might get a little something going this year. They aren't making the playoffs, but I wouldn't be stunned to see them at .500 next time one of these is posted.

Brewers (15-20)


Anyone who writes about sports occasionally finds they wished they had gone with their gut. I did a lot of projections before the season started, and I generally had the Brewers as the third-best team in the Central with an outside shot at the Wild Card. It didn't feel right to me, though. There was something about this team I didn't like.

Of course, now everyone can claim I'm changing my tune because of how poorly they've played, and to an extent that's true. Still, I thought about dropping them lower, and now I wish I had.

Though they don't, at the moment, have the worst record in the Central, they have been the worst team. The pitching hasn't been there at all, with a 4.71 ERA that's dead last in the league. Their 4.36 FIP has the Brewers second to last. xFIP is a little more generous, but this is not a pitching team.

Milwaukee does hit, though. So far, the Brewers have done better at the dish than any other team in the NL. That's good, but let me tell you something: when, due to injury or incompetence, your team is counting on Yuniesky Betancourt at first base, you have a problem. The news I've seen on Corey Hart is encouraging, and the Brewers certainly have to hope he comes back as soon as he can, because Betancourt is not hitting 40 homers this year.

A lot has gone wrong for the Brewers already this year. They are now 7.5 games back and, sadly for Miwaukee fans, in a division as strong as the Central, they may be playing for next year already.

Pirates (21-16)


Hey Pirates fans! Your team is five games over .500! They've spent time in first place! When was the last time that happened? Oh, right, last year. And how did that team finish? Not even a winning record? Bummer.

I write that not to poke fun, but to point out how rough the last few seasons have been for downtrodden Pirates fans. This team has taunted its fans for several years now, and it has to be hard to really believe. My rooting interest is in the Reds, but it's awfully hard not to pull for Pittsburgh at times. So, are they really putting it together? Quite possibly.

I wrote in my Pirates season preview that the rotation was suspect, and that's proven to be true. No one beyond A.J. Burnett has provided real value, though there is at least some hope in the recent appearance of Francisco Liriano.

Right now, the Pirates owe much of their success to Starling Marte and Russell Martin, both of whom have been fabulous. With Martin, it's hard to believe he'll keep it up. Marte is more of a wild card. Though he's never shown this much power in the minors, fans have plenty of reasons to think he'll continue to be one of the top contributors this year.

When I look at the Pirates, I see a textbook picture of what should be expected of a team this early in the season. Some guys are playing over their heads. Others (I'm looking at you Pedro Alvarez) have been much worse than should be expected. In the end, it should balance, and the Pirates may—finally—finish over .500. We'll just have to wait and see.

Reds (22-16)


It's May 13th, and the Reds already have lost their starting left fielder for most of the season, their No. 1 starter for a month, their top catcher for several weeks, and their backup left fielder for two weeks. Even with Joey Votto's knee injury, the Reds were very lucky on the injury front last year. This is not a team with a lot of depth, and injuries are a major concern. However, aside from Ryan Ludwick, everyone is getting healthy and, miraculously, the Reds find themselves six games over .500 having just completed the toughest part of their schedule.

So far, the Reds have had six starting pitchers throw a significant number of innings. Five of them have ERAs better than the average major league starter. The sixth, Mike Leake, is only a tick or two off that average. This team can pitch, but then, we knew that. Any questions about this team revolved around hitting.

Shin-Soo Choo has been a revelation. He has been the best hitter on a team that includes Votto. Choo's .316/.456/.569 line is beyond what even a fan's wildest dreams could hope for. There's no way he keeps this up. Luckily for Reds fans, however, he is the only offensive player who's over-performing. Jay Bruce has been especially bad (though he's been remembering how to hit lately), but this team simply hasn't hit as it should have.

The Reds are getting healthy and, only two games behind the Cardinals, are far from dead. If the bats come around—and they should—this will be a very scary team, which is what most expected when the season began.

Cardinals (23-13)


I don't know how they do it, but the Cardinals always seem to have outstanding pitching. Anyway you want to slice it, any metric you want to look at, the Cardinals have been head and shoulders above every other NL team when it comes to pitching. Unless you root for them, it is profane. There has been some luck, of course, but even when we cancel out the luck, they still have the best pitching in the National League.

When it comes to offense, however, they are much more middle-of-the-pack, and it's hard to see them moving too much. They have some very good hitters, yes, but they also have guys who aren't likely to do much of anything with the bat. Additionally, with a couple of notable exceptions on the pitching side of the coin, the Cardinals haven't had many injuries.

I could write more about the Cardinals, and I feel like maybe I should, but they've played very well. And with very bad teams and very good teams, there is often not much insight to offer. I will say that I think they have played a bit over their heads so far. I am absolutely biased, but I will also say that I think this team is better than I gave it credit for at the beginning of the year. The race between the Cardinals and the Reds should be very interesting to watch as the season progresses.

Jason has too many irons in the fire. He fancies himself a fiction writer and also writes about the Reds at Redleg Nation, books at Elephants for Bookends, and everything else at The Winesburg Eagle. Email him at winesburgeagle *at* gmail or follow him on Twitter @jasonlinden

<< Return to Article Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 7, Vol. I from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 7, Vol. I

by Jack Weiland
May 13, 2013

Dear readers, it's important that you know one of the best parts of our work here at the Waiver Wire desk is our interaction with you. One exchange got me thinking this week, courtesy of reader Fabio, who thanked us for the tips we give. This led me to wonder how often our tips are acted on, how often those tips are successful, and how horribly they fail sometimes (heh, sometimes).

So, friends, feel free to let Karl and I know how we've led you to glory, or how you've followed our help straight into the clutches of defeat. The only way for us to improve our work is to get feedback, both positive and negative.

Now that we're a quarter of the way into the season, our sample of suggestions and warnings is sufficient to vet our work here. In the meantime, let's take a look at some players we've featured here and how they've performed recently.

Felix Doubront was one of the most dropped players at CBS this week, going from 52 percent ownership to 37 percent after being demoted to the bullpen briefly for Allen Webster, who got hit around by the Twins and was then sent back to Triple-A.

Doubront is now back in the rotation, and with an ERA that is 3.58 higher than his FIP (6.40 vs. 2.82) there's a chance to capitalize on a short-term blip in ownership rates. He's a better and more valuable player than the current ownership rates would suggest.

Luis Valbuena has continued his strong play and is still very available in fantasy leagues. He "suffered" a pinkie injury last week, but the team believes (for now) that he'll avoid a stint on the disabled list. The really good news here (for Valbuena and his owners) is that the Cubs also outrighted Ian Stewart to Triple-A and removed him from their 40-man roster, so it appears as though he's further than ever from reclaiming the third base job in Chicago.

Valbuena's stock, therefore, is higher than ever, and the fact that he qualifies at second base as well in many leagues only adds to that value. He's underowned right now, and those seeking help at third or second should take a look.

Kevin Slowey continues to excel, and although his ownership rate is approaching 50 percent on CBS, he's still undervalued by fantasy leagues. Roberto Hernandez also continues to pitch well, and his ownership rate is still down at just 13 percent. That needs to change.

This week we look at a pair of Chicago starting pitchers set to return soon, and a pair of American League first basemen who have been quietly excellent in 2013.

Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | SP | ESPN: 26.3 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 52 percent; CBS: 70 percent
YTD: N/A
ZiPS Projection: 9-8, 3.68 ERA in 151.2 innings pitched


John Danks | Chicago White Sox | SP | ESPN: 0.0 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 1 percent; CBS: 11 percent
YTD: N/A
ZiPS Projection: 8-7, 4.50 ERA in 126 innings pitched


It's rare that we feature such big names here in the Waiver Wire, and rarer still that a player owned by 70 percent of CBS leagues could be deemed a value to fantasy league owners. But such is the case here with Matt Garza, who made his third rehab start Saturday and second at Double-A. He looked solid in doing so, and looks to be two more rehab starts away from rejoining the Cubs. When he's back, his ownership rates should be closer to 90 percent than 70 percent.

Garza had been very good for the Cubs prior to his injury, and assuming his stuff is back where it once was (and there's no reason to believe it's not), there's no reason he can't provide value with his solid ERA and high strikeout totals. Garza has posted ERAs under 4.00 every year since 2007 with strikeout rates over 20 percent and walk rates under 10 percent. He's very good, and if he shows himself to be healthy, he should be owned in pretty much every league.

John Danks is another story. The last time he had a sub-4.00 ERA season was 2010, which also was the last time he was healthy all season. Since that time, his strikeouts have been down and his walks have been up.

If he's 2012 Danks, where he walked almost as many batters as he struck out, he's of little use for fantasy managers. But if he proves those numbers were the result of being injured and can post rates closer to his 2011 figures, he could be a diamond in the rough. Time will tell.

Recommendation: Let this serve as a reminder that two players who should be on your radar are nearing return. Garza should be added now in all leagues. With Danks, I'm inclined to wait until he shows me the Danks of old before I buy in.

James Loney | Tampa Bay Rays | 1B | ESPN: 26.2 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 18 percent; CBS: 31 percent
YTD: .371/.426/.533 in 116 plate appearances
ZiPS Updated Projection: .293/.348/.420 in 545 plate appearances


Mitch Moreland | Texas Rangers | 1B | ESPN: 24.9 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 13 percent; CBS: 38 percent
YTD: .293/.343/.528 in 134 plate appearances
ZiPS Updated Projection: .275/.330/.467 in 535 plate appearances


It's important to note right off the bat what James Loney will not do. Namely, he's not going to hit for power, and he's not going to fare well against left-handed pitching. Still, it's equally important to state that he has the 13th-highest wOBA in Major League Baseball right now. No, I am not kidding.

After putting up a paltry .272 mark last year, Loney currently is at .414. Mike Petriello took a look at Loney last week and pointed out that part of the reason he's succeeding is because he's swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone, making more contact with the pitches he is swinging at, and the Rays have sheltered him against lefties.

Loney is due for a drop across the board because of his unsustainable BABIP of .402, but he is still a player who walks a bunch, can make consistent contact, and plays strong defense that will help keep him in the lineup. Against right-handed opponents, he's not a bad play.

A play I like even more, though, is Mitch Moreland. The Rangers' first baseman doesn't walk as much as Loney and strikes out more, but he does have more power, having put up an ISO of .236 this year and a career ISO of .184.

It's interesting to note that Tampa Bay's offense actually has been better than the Rangers' to this point, although given both lineups and the park effects of their respective home parks, I'm not sure I would expect that to continue all season.

Recommendation: Neither of these guys is going to be Joey Votto for you, but you could do worse, especially while both continue to be penciled into their respective lineups on a daily basis. In deeper leagues and AL-only ones, they're worth pursuing if you have a need at first base or corner infielder.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

<< Return to Article Last remaining teammates from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Last remaining teammates

by Chris Jaffe
May 13, 2013

One more time, let’s get macabre, everybody.

The last few weeks at THT, I’ve had a theme in my columns: death. Or, to put a more positive spin on it, the theme has been long lives. Well, that sounds better.

Inspired by the recent passing of former Tigers pitcher Virgil Trucks at the ripe old age of 95, I did a lot of looking to figure out who are the longest-lasting players. First, I looked at who lived the longest time after playing in a World Series. Then I looked at the last surviving men to have played for some important managers.

Let’s try something similar to last week. Instead of looking at the last remaining links to managers, let’s look at teammates. When did dugout memories of stars fade completely from memory to history? Who were the last surviving teammates of some of the game’s biggest greats?

Let’s start with Joe DiMaggio. We’ll start with him and keep going back until we find whose teammates are all dead.

Last ones left


At any rate, DiMaggio. He’s both one of the games' iconic greats and someone who retired such a long time ago that there aren’t too many of his teammates left. His last season was 1951, 62 years ago. His last game is about as close to us in time as it is to the Oklahoma land rush.

From those Yankees teams through 1951, there are exactly 13 survivors. Two of those survivors are Hall of Famers. Longtime Yankee ace Whitey Ford went 9-1 as a rookie for the 1950 Yankees. At age 84, Ford is the second-youngest surviving DiMaggio teammate, behind only Bob Wiseler, whoever he is.

Even more well-known that Ford is his old battery mate, Yogi Berra. Famous for his on-field ability and off-field mis-speakings, Berra won 10 world titles, more than any other player. He turned 88 years old on Mothers’ Day. Most of DiMaggio’s other survivors are forgotten role players and marginal major leaguers from the late 1940s and early 1950s Yankees squads.

Go back one year before DiMaggio retired, and you come across the final season of another Hall of Famer, one with a much longer career: Luke Appling. Nicknamed Old Aches and Pains, Appling played for the White Sox from 1930 until 1950. When he began, he shared a dugout with Red Faber, born in 1888. And he lasted so long that a dozen of his teammates are still alive.

Of those 12, five are in their 90s, and a sixth, Bob Kusava, will join them later this month. The oldest is Tom Jordan, who caught a handful of games in 1946 and will turn 94 in September. The youngest, by three years, is Joe Kirrene. An 18-year-old prospect in 1950, Kirrene made his big league debut in Appling’s final game, the last day of the 1950 season. In fact, Kirrene batted just before Appling in the lineup. It would be interesting if Kirrene ended up becoming Appling’s last surviving teammate.

Take it back another year, 1948, and the most important retiring player was shortstop Arky Vaughan. All of his teammates from his glory days with the Pirates have since passed on, but he still has eight teammates left from his final seasons with the Dodgers.

Two terrific players retired in 1947, and here’s where we run into the first player on the verge of fading completely from memory into history. Longtime Giants star Mel Ott was the first NL player ever to hit 500 home runs, and he has only one former teammate left alive: Charlie Mead. When he passes, there will be none left.

The other first-rate player to retire in 1947 is Hank Greenberg, and his teammates have had better health. Eight of them are still alive, including Hall of Fame slugger Ralph Kiner, who was Greenberg’s teammate in his last season with the 1947 Pirates. His most famous surviving Tigers teammate is a player no one associates with Detroit: pitcher Billy Pierce. The Tigers traded him to the White Sox, where he later became a teammate of Appling.

Two notable players left in 1945, hit machine Paul Waner and slugger Jimmie Foxx. Both have approximately seven surviving teammates. The most famous by far is Foxx’s Red Sox teammate Bobby Doerr, the Hall of Fame second baseman.

Let’s go back before Pearl Harbor. 1941 was the final season for superstar pitcher Lefty Grove. (In fact, he announced his retirement on the day Pearl Harbor was bombed, Dec. 7.) When you go this far back, there aren’t may surviving players at all. There are just five people who played in 1941 that are still alive, but one played with Grove. Again, it’s Doerr.

All gone


Go back earlier, and you finally run into people who have no surviving teammates. The most recent all-time great to have no living teammates is the Iron Horse, Lou Gehrig. The disease that killed him forced him to retire in 1939. An outfielder for that club was Tommy Henrich, who died on Dec. 1, 2009. He was the last Yankee left who heard Gehrig say that he considered himself the luckiest man on the face of the earth. The day Gehrig gave his famous speech, Henrich appeared as a pinch-hitter for the Yankees and made an out.

Speaking of great Yankees, there is none bigger than the Bambino, Babe Ruth. His last living teammate was Billy Werber. A shortstop, Werber played seven games for the early-1930s Yankees before catching on elsewhere as a starter. Werber died on Jan. 22, 2009, and thus narrowly missed being Gehrig’s last living teammate, as well.

Let’s take it back a few more years to 1930, when a trio of early Hall of Famers retired: Eddie Collins, Pete Alexander, and George Sisler. Collins, a four-decade second baseman with well over 3,000 hits, was last survived by first baseman Joe Hauser. The former Philadelphia A’s infielder died at age 98 on July 11, 1997.

Alexander is in the conversation for best pitcher of the 20th century, and ironically his career ended on perhaps the worst pitching staff of the 20th century, the 1930 Phillies. Another member of that Godforsaken staff was Ray Benge, who departed on June 27, 1997.

Sisler isn’t as big a name as either Alexander or Collins, and I’d skip over him if it wasn’t for the oddity of his last surviving teammate. Whereas almost every player’s last surviving teammate is someone he played with at the very end of his career, in Sisler’s case his last living teammate was someone from his rookie season. As a 22-year-old rookie with the 1915 Browns, he was a teammate with a 24-year-old pitcher named Chet "Red" Hoff. As it happened, Hoff became the longest living pro player ever, dying at age 107 on Sept. 17, 1998. Sisler was barely younger than his last living teammate—incredible.

Since we’re mentioning Hoff, it’s also worth noting that he’s the last surviving player with Hall of Fame infielder Bobby Wallace, whose career began in 1894. They overlapped on the 1915 Browns. Admittedly, Wallace was just a coach by then and played only on very rare occasions, but he did play, and Hoff was on the team. Thus, a man who nearly lived into the 21st century can say he played with a Hall of Famer who began playing in the 19th century.

Though the trio of 1930 retirees didn’t have any teammates live into the 21st century, the same can’t be said for the most famous men to quit playing in the late 1920s. Ty Cobb, the all-time leader in batting average, retired in 1928 but had teammate Ray Hayworth pass away on Sept. 25, 2002. Also retiring in 1928 was Tris Speaker, and his last teammate, Paul Hopkins, died on Jan. 2, 2004. Hopkins was also a teammate of Walter Johnson, who retired in 1927.

Taking it back further, you get perhaps the most famous non-Hall of Famer of them all, Black Sox left fielder Shoeless Joe Jackson. He was banned from baseball after the 1920 season, and his last surviving teammate didn’t even make it until 1990, let alone 2000. Zeb Terry passed away in March of 1988.

Let’s see, we’ve mentioned Ruth, Cobb, and Johnson; that’s three of the inaugural Cooperstown class of Hall of Famers. The other two are Honus Wagner and Christy Mathewson. Their last survivors are a mixture of obscure and famous. The last man to say he laced up spikes with Wagner was Erv Kantlehner, a forgettable pitcher, who died on Feb. 3, 1990.

Mathewson’s last living teammate was himself a Hall of Famer. In fact, this Hall of Famer served as Mathewson’s teammate on two different squads. On July 20, 1916, John McGraw traded his longtime ace Mathewson along with two kids to the Reds. One of those kids was centerfielder Edd Roush. He lived another 72 years before passing away on March 21, 1988.

There is at least one other Hall of Famer whose last surviving teammate was another Hall of Famer. 19th-century slugger Ed Delahanty might be better remembered for his death than his career. Drunk and going through major emotional problems, he went over Niagra Falls without a barrel in the middle of 1903 after being thrown off the team train for his belligerent behavior.

But during his career, he was one of the best and most feared hitters of his generation. At any rate, while with the Phillies at the turn of the century, he teamed with a young Elmer Flick, who had a tremendous 10-12 year stretch before being felled by injuries. Though Flick’s career was shortened, his life wasn’t. He died at age 94 on Jan. 9, 1911.

Between Mathewson and Delahanty, the most famous player to retire has to be legendary pitcher Cy Young, he of 511 wins fame. While Young neared the end of his line with the 1911 Braves, he had a young infielder named Art Butler on the team. Butler died at age 96 on Oct. 7, 1984, the same day the Cubs lost Game Five of the NLCS to the Padres.

Going back to the 19th century, the pre-Babe Ruth home run champion was first baseman Roger Connor. He retired in 1897, and his last teammate, Ike Samuels, passed away 67 years later, on Feb. 22, 1964, at age 90.

The most famous player from baseball’s first 15 years is Charley "Old Hoss" Radbourn. A pitcher, Radbourn won 59 games in 1884, and has since become the object of a recent book and a current Twitter feed. Radbourn played his last game in 1891, but his final teammate died 61 years later, in 1952. That would be like Joe DiMaggio’s last teammate dying last year.

Well, lifespans were shorter back then. In fact, Radbourn himself didn’t even make it into the 20th century, dying at age 42 in 1897. That was 55 years before Arlie Latham, his 1891 Reds teammate, departed. He was 92 when he died on Nov. 29, 1952.

Radbourn, like Gehrig and everyone in between, has faded into history. Over the next decade or so, the same will be true of Grove, DiMaggio, and those who retired between them. All last living links are eventually broken.

References and Resources
Baseball-Reference.com provided the info for this column.

History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. Oh, and now he's on twitter.

<< Return to Article The Hot Seat from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The Hot Seat

by Scott Strandberg
May 13, 2013

There’s no better indicator of a player on the hot seat than the dreaded vote of confidence. On Friday, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported that the Twins will keep Pedro Hernandez in the starting rotation for at least one more start. Sounds like a guy with a firm hold on his job to me! It's time to take a look at why Hernandez will lose his rotation spot in the near future and who could replace him.

To begin with, Hernandez is not long for this rotation, no matter what the Twins are telling the media. The 24-year-old lefty is a prototype left-handed specialist who somehow is starting baseball games—major league baseball games, at that. Andrew Berg, my podcast co-host, referred to Hernandez a couple weeks ago as “the loogiest of loogies.” Andrew, as he often is, was very much right on this one. Hernandez’s split stats so far this season tell the whole story:

{exp:list_maker}vs L: 34 batters faced, .147/.147/.206 (.151 wOBA), 0 BB, 5 K
vs R: 67 batters faced, .414/.493/.810 (.542 wOBA), 9 BB, 4 K {/exp:list_maker}
Wow. Just look at those numbers. When a righty comes to the plate against Hernandez, there’s essentially a 50/50 shot of him getting on base. Then consider the fact that he’s also served up five homers to righties and none to lefties.

But wait, there’s more! Twelve of the 67 righties Hernandez has faced have tagged him for an extra-base hit. Yes, there is seriously a starting pitcher in a major league rotation who is currently surrendering extra-base hits to 18 percent of the right-handed hitters he faces.

Clearly, this little experiment won’t continue for long. To be fair to Hernandez, it’s not that he’s a bad pitcher. He’s just been put in a situation that does not suit his skills. If I was a manager, I’d love to have a lefty-killer like him in my bullpen.

So who takes his spot when Hernandez inevitably loses it? On the 25-man roster, the Twins have some pretty dreary alternatives. Cole DeVries is currently rehabbing his forearm injury but isn’t expected back for at least a couple more weeks. Anthony Swarzak and Ryan Pressly have been starters in the past, but neither of them could be considered anything resembling a long-term option.

Actually, if you’re not a Twins fan and you know who both Swarzak and Pressly are, pat yourself on the back. To be completely honest, I’m a lifelong Twins fan, and I had no clue who Pressly was until a couple months ago when I saw him pitching in a spring training game. Once I looked into his numbers and realized that he put up a tasty 6.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in High-A ball last year, I forgave myself for the oversight.

It is possible the Twins will use some combination of Hernandez, Swarzak and Pressly until DeVries is fully healthy. DeVries, however, is no great shakes himself. Sure, his 4.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 87.2 innings last year look pretty good on the surface, but then you see the .258 BABIP and the 4.90 FIP, and you start to back away.

Then you stumble upon the fact that the Twins turned him from a starter to a reliever in 2010, when he was struggling mightily in his second Double-A season, only to turn him back into a starter last season in Triple-A. In short, the guy the Twins are waiting to get back off the DL to fill the fifth starter’s spot is the same guy they gave up on as a starter in the minors three years ago. Sounds promising!

The long-term answer for the Twins clearly is top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson. The only real question is how long the club will wait to bring him up. The window of opportunity obviously is there (this is the same team that featured Vance Worley as its Opening Day starter this year), and Gibson certainly is pitching like a guy who can improve that rotation.

The 25-year-old righty has bounced back nicely from undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2011 and is having a great season in Triple-A. In 40.2 innings over seven starts this year, Gibson has pitched to a 3.32 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 2.93 FIP, with 35 strikeouts against 11 walks.

Gibson has many of the characteristics of the traditional “Twins starter,” such as the groundball tendencies, low-90s fastball and good command. The difference here is that Gibson stands 6-foot-6 and actually can strike guys out, with a career 8.1 K/9 rate in the minors and the stuff to strike out major-league hitters as well (both his slider and change-up are above-average offerings). His height gives all of his pitches tremendous downward plane, which gives him a bit of deception in the delivery as well as the ability to generate grounders.

Have you guessed yet that I really like Kyle Gibson? He’s ready to be a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter right now, and as the Twins have demonstrated with Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia, they’re more than willing to give their top prospects long looks in the majors this year.

Also of interest is that Gibson’s last Triple-A start (a four-hit shutout) was on Wednesday, which just so happens to be the same day Hernandez was getting ripped for six runs in just two innings with the big-league club. Gibson’s next start is Monday, the same day Hernandez probably will be getting shelled by the White Sox. You get the idea.

As I said earlier, it’s not a question of whether Gibson will be in the Twins rotation this year; it’s more of a question of whether it will be next week or next month. And once he gets there, he’ll be pitching half his games in Target Field, one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in the majors.

Be aware that Gibson’s innings likely will be limited this year as it is his first full season after Tommy John surgery, but I don’t expect his performance to be limited at all. Go ahead and stash him in AL-only leagues right now; don’t wait until he’s up and you have to blow a bunch of your FAAB budget on him.

Scott Strandberg lives in Norman, OK with his cat, Bea. He is a musician by night and a writer by day. In addition to writing for THT Fantasy, Scott writes for MLBDepthCharts and co-hosts the MLBDepthCharts Fantasy Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @scottstrandberg.

<< Return to Article The curious case of Vernon Wells from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The curious case of Vernon Wells

by Matt Filippi
May 12, 2013

All stats used in the article below are through Saturday, May 11

The Yankees came into the 2013 season looking much different than they had in recent years. They lost Nick Swisher, Russell Martin and Raul Ibanez to free agency. Those three combined to hit 64 of the team's 245 homers in 2012. Not to mention that sluggers Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira were going to start the year on the disabled list. The brass was forced to find temporary replacements, including Lyle Overbay at first, Eduardo Nunez and Jayson Nix at short, and Vernon Wells in the outfield.

The Yankees didn't acquire Wells until the very end of spring training, getting him and money from the Angels in exchange for two minor leaguers. The move seemed to get a big “LOL” reaction from people on Twitter, which seemed warranted. After all, a team that was in the American League Championship Series last October was now forced to run Vernon Wells out to left field every day. Wells, 34, had hit .222/.258/.409 over the last two seasons in LA and seemed to be on a decline that wasn't showing signs of ending. On top of that, New York was going to pay this man $13 million over two years.

However, there was a glimmer of hope for Yankees fans. First of all, Wells hit .333/.360/.644 in spring training, and while I don't like to put stock in spring numbers, it gave them optimistic something to hold onto. But then I came across a piece by MLB.com's Richard Justice about Wells and some mechanical adjustments he made during the offseason. Here's an excerpt from that article:

Wells studied hours of video to compare his swing from the last couple of seasons against his best seasons. He immediately saw the difference.

"You get caught up in hitting home runs and seeing how far you can hit 'em and your swing changes," Wells said Tuesday afternoon as he prepared to play his first spring training game for the Yankees.

And that was the focus of Wells' offseason. To shorten his swing. To hit the ball to right field. To stop worrying about home runs.


In the two videos below, you will see a single by Wells with the Angels in spring training 2012 and a home run he hit with the Yankees last week, respectively. Here you go:





In the first clip there is a lot of pre-swing movement and right before he does swing, there is a small, subtle hitch. That's probably what he was talking about when said he was trying to hit homers, since hitches are known to trade quickness to the baseball for power. In the second swing with New York, there is almost no pre-swing movement until the pitcher is about to throw the baseball and the hitch is basically gone.

Whatever he did seems to be working because he's hitting .281/.331/.500 (123 wRC+) through Saturday's action. Some of Wells' comments have come to life in the numbers also. In 2012 only five percent of his hits went to the opposite field while in 2013, he's gone the other way 14 percent of the time, according to FanGraphs. It may not seem like the biggest increase, but it's something. However, Wells has changed even more than this.

He is also being more aggressive at the dish. This year he is seeing only 3.39 pitches per plate appearance, as opposed to last year when he saw 3.64 pitches per plate appearance. This could be because he's swinging at about 12 percent more pitches that are in the strike zone than last year. As a trade off he's also swinging and missing four percent more than he did last season. Maybe he's seeing his pitch earlier in counts and just letting it rip instead of trying to be more passive. I found this really interesting because the Yankees as an organization always seem to preach patience at the plate.

Wells probably isn't going to keep this performance up, but ZiPS does have him posting a 103 wRC+ for the rest of the season, which is still above average and I'm sure the Bombers would be more than happy to get that. The thing is, New York just had to weather this early, injury-plagued stretch and Wells' hot start has helped the Yankees not only tread water, but actually stay near the top of the division. With Curtis Granderson due back in the next week or so, they will probably go to a four-man rotation in the outfield with Wells, Granderson, Brett Gardner, and Ichiro Suzuki. Wells has shown (so far) that he can be a legitimate option for them going forward, but if he does come crashing back down to earth (his 2011-2012 numbers), it won't hurt too much.

Matt Filippi is the creator of Yankees Talk Blog; you can email him at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) and you can follow him at @Matt_Filippi.

<< Return to Article 60th anniversary: Whitey Ford’s near no-hitter from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

60th anniversary: Whitey Ford’s near no-hitter

by Chris Jaffe
May 12, 2013



History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. Oh, and now he's on twitter.

<< Return to Article The daily grind: 5-10-13 from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The daily grind: 5-10-13

by Brad Johnson
May 10, 2013

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of daily league specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.


Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): Ross Detwiler isn't as good as his ERA. He is a solid pitcher, though, and the Cubs don't have a ton of firepower.

Wade Davis receives a recommendation only because the options for today are very shallow. This is a use-only-if-you-must match-up against the Yanquis.

Jose Fernandez is technically under my ownership threshold, as he's owned in 44 percent of leagues. He'll face the Dodgers, but I have a feeling he's not available to many of my readers.

Matt Magill is on the other side of that match-up. I don't know much about Magill except that he's facing the Marlins.

Pitcher (bum): This is another day where I can go on and on about the bad pitchers.

The Diamondbacks should enjoy facing Tyler Cloyd. He has a very similar skill set to Colby Lewis, but it took Lewis a trip overseas before he figured out how to succeed in the majors.

The Cardinals have a difficult offense, and Jon Garland is still on my exploitation list.

Dallas Keuchel has a tough assignment against the Rangers.

The Orioles face Mike Pelfrey, while the Reds will see Ramon Ortiz.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston should get some time against Detwiler.

I'm a big Domonic Brown fan, and while I think his development path will be slow, certain match-ups like Ian Kennedy are worth using.

Ride the streak with Daniel Nava. At the end of the day, I don't think his HR+SB total will be worth owning, but he's certainly earning A+ marks for streaming.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra gets that Cloyd match-up.

Craig Gentry shall be freed today.

Rajai Davis will likely start, but he sees another tough lefty in Jon Lester.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): Andrew Cashner is still available for recommendation at 27-percent owned. The Rays are one of the leaner AL offenses.

The Dodgers aren't very good, so you might want to try Kevin Slowey in H2H leagues, given the paucity of stream-able starters tomorrow.

Pitcher (bum): Edwin Jackson has struggled this season, and the Nationals are a tough assignment.

Vance Worley has a difficult match-up with the Orioles.

The Pirates and Orioles are both using TBA. I don't know how he'll be in two places at once.

The Rangers face Erik Bedard.

Hitter (power): The Red Sox face Mark Buehrle, so it's a good day to use Jonny Gomes and Nava.

Hitter (speed): Try Will Venable against Jeremy Hellickson.

Hang on to Gentry for the Bedard match-up.

Noteworthy news


Zack Greinke, Brandon Beachy, and Johnny Cueto are nearing rehab assignments.

Weather watch


The Brewers and Reds have a high probability of seeing thunderstorms throughout the game. Postponement would not be surprising.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

<< Return to Article And That Happened from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

And That Happened

by Craig Calcaterra
May 10, 2013



Craig writes the HardballTalk blog for NBC Sports.com

<< Return to Article 15,000 days since facial hair returns to baseball from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

15,000 days since facial hair returns to baseball

by Chris Jaffe
May 10, 2013



History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. Oh, and now he's on twitter.

<< Return to Article Cooperstown Confidential: What really happened with Fritz Ostermueller and Jackie Robinson from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Cooperstown Confidential: What really happened with Fritz Ostermueller and Jackie Robinson

by Bruce Markusen
May 10, 2013

By all accounts, 42 is a wonderful movie, beautifully filmed and superbly acted. It is a film that does a skilled job in telling the story of Jackie Robinson’s entrance into the major leagues and the season-long struggles that he faced as the game’s greatest racial pioneer. It is a film that may earn Harrison Ford an Academy Award nomination for his performance as Branch Rickey.

But there is an ongoing controversy with this film, and it involves the characterization of former Pirates pitcher Fritz Ostermueller. The veteran moundsman is seen intentionally throwing a pitch at Robinson’s head, hitting him with that pitch, and then attempting to insult him with a dismissive and racially tinged remark.

The portrayal has drawn the wrath of Ostermueller’s daughter, who contends that her father was not a racist, but a kind and open-hearted man. “I’d just like people to know that the man that they portrayed was not Fritz Ostermueller, was not my dad,” said his daughter, Sherrill Ostermueller Duesterhaus. “It was Hollywood taking maybe a little piece of history and rewriting it their way.”

“I can understand Hollywood making a good story,” said Sherrill, “but not at an expense of someone else and someone else’s memory and legacy.” Sherrill may not be the most objective source on the subject, but it’s also safe to say that she knew her father better than most people did.

Ostermueller is no longer around to defend himself. Diagnosed with cancer in 1956, he died one year later, at the age of 50. He has been gone for nearly 60 years. So we are left to rely on the testimony of others, a group that includes his surviving family members.

Who was the real Fritz Ostermueller? That is a question that historians like myself are trying to contend with as the film continues to enjoy a successful run in theaters nationwide.

There are at least two clear mistakes in the film’s characterization of Ostermueller. 42 shows him to be a right-handed pitcher; baseball fans who recall the 1930s and 40s will surely remember him to be a left-handed pitcher, and a good one at that. He won 114 games over a decade and a half, finishing in the top 10 in league ERA three times.

Far more importantly, the film shows the Ostermueller/Robinson incident to involve a beanball that nails Robinson in the head. The incident refers to a game between the Dodgers and Pirates at Forbes Field on May 17, 1947. In the top of the first inning, Ostermueller hit Robinson with a pitch, marking the fourth time that Jackie had been hit overall that season. But in actuality, when Ostermueller hit Robinson with a pitch that day, it was in the left arm, and nowhere near his head.

My first reaction to hearing of such inaccuracies was this: if the filmmakers couldn’t correctly identify Ostermueller as a left-handed pitcher, and couldn’t accurately portray Robinson being hit in the arm instead of the head, then what else did they get wrong in portraying Ostermueller? Why should we believe anything that 42 says, or even hints at, about the career of Fritz Ostermueller?

First off, let’s provide a biographical summary of Ostermueller. Born in Quincy, Illinois, he was raised on a dairy farm. After some experience playing in a church league and then for his college team, he signed with Quincy’s minor league club and began working his way up the professional ladder within the Cardinals’ organization. A stint at Rochester showcased him as a star; he led the International League in ERA and drew interest from several major league teams.

With their expansive minor league system and a strong major league rotation, the Cardinals had no room for Ostermueller. The Red Sox purchased the talented left-hander and assigned him to work with Hall of Fame southpaw Herb Pennock, who helped him refine his control. As a rookie in 1934, Ostermueller pitched very well, finishing in the top 10 in ERA among American League hurlers.

Ostermueller’s performance began to dip in his second season. As the decade continued, his ERAs rose into the high 4.00s, even though he reached double figures in wins in 1938 and ‘39. His performance seems to have been affected by arm problems that he first encountered in 1937, resulting in eventual surgery.

The Red Sox ran out of patience with Ostey in 1939. After the season, they sold him and veteran right-hander Denny Galehouse to the St. Louis Browns. The war years brought Ostermueller a considerable level of tumult. He struggled so much that the Browns sent him back to the minors. After he returned, he was hit in the elbow by a batted ball and had to undergo another surgery. As a result of the injury, he came up with a distinctive delivery, which mimicked the motion of a rocking chair and caught the attention of fans and writers.

In 1943, Ostey volunteered to enter the military as part of the World War II effort, but an examination showed him to have arthritis, resulting in his rejection for military service. The Army later reclassified him, allowing him to serve briefly in 1945.

In July of 1943, the Browns traded Ostey to the Brooklyn Dodgers for Bobo Newsome. He seemed to find a home with the Dodgers, where he pitched well in relief for the balance of 1943 and the first half of 1944.

Despite his solid pitching, the Dodgers cut him loose in midseason and tried to send him to the minor leagues, a move that Ostey protested. Dodgers GM Branch Rickey didn’t like Ostermueller, whom he referred to as “not my kind of a pitcher.” Part of the dislike stemmed from the feeling that his veteran left-hander drank too much. As sportswriter Tim Cohane once wrote: “[Ostermueller] has been known occasionally in the past to quaff a species of liquid refreshment more stimulating than beef tea.” Rickey took note of the habit, and Ostey never forgave Rickey for the slight.

Initially signing with the Reds, Ostermueller then signed with Pittsburgh and emerged as an effective pitcher for the Pirates over the next three and a half seasons. It was with Pittsburgh that Osty coined the famous saying that was originally credited to his Hall of Fame teammate, Ralph Kiner: “Home run hitters drive Cadillacs; single hitters drive Fords.”

Though Ostermueller was now in his late thirties, he put up two of his best seasons in 1945 and ‘46, winning a combined 25 games. (I guess it was quite appropriate that Ostermueller was nicknamed “Old Folks.”) The consummate crafty left-hander, he relied on control and deception. In some ways, Osty enjoyed the last laugh on Rickey.

Ostermueller remained an effective pitcher in 1947, Robinson’s rookie season. But his career took a downturn in 1948, forcing him into retirement.

As a pitcher, Ostermueller had an uneven but respectable 15-year career. He showed resiliency in coming back from multiple surgeries, and overcoming multiple rejections from various teams.

Now for the more pertinent issue. In trying to come up with answers about Ostermueller’s character, I began my search by examining his file at the National Baseball Hall of Fame Library. It is a decent-sized file, with about 40 or so newspaper clippings. Unfortunately, most of the clips are pre-1947, so they give us no indication as to his feelings regarding race relations. Of the few articles that are dated from 1947, there is no discussion of the game in which he hit Robinson with a pitch; there is not even a passing mention of the now-famous incident.

In looking at the articles post-1947, there are just a few mentions of Ostermueller’s pitching career, along with two different obituaries. Once again, the articles offer no discussion of the Robinson incident, and no examination of his racial attitudes. In a column written by Pittsburgh writer Al Abrams, Ostermueller is described as “a particular favorite” of the writer. There is certainly no indication that he was any kind of a racist or a hater.

So based on his clippings file, Ostermueller looks good. But the absence of any written allegations of racism does not necessarily make him innocent of the charges posed in 42. After all, the issue of race was not always discussed in the mainstream press, even in 1947 when Robinson was making history.

Having exhausted Ostermueller’s clippings file, I next made my move toward the Internet, trying to read as many biographical articles as possible. One of the best sources comes from SABR’s Biographical Project, which features an extensive bio written by John F. Green. There is not a single mention of Jackie Robinson, or even the words “race” or “racism” in this lengthy article, which is perhaps the most extensive biographical effort made of Ostey’s career. Similarly, I found no evidence of race being brought up in other Internet articles that predated the ongoing issue surrounding 42.

That leaves us with one other avenue, and that is perhaps the most useful source in a story of this kind. Are there any surviving teammates of Ostermueller who might give us some insight into his character? This is where the helping hand of a Pittsburgh writer named Bob Hurte, who is a friend of mine, comes into play. A historian and budding author, Hurte has communicated in recent years with one of Ostermueller’s teammates, a man who seemed to have first-hand knowledge of Ostey’s feelings. At the time of Hurte’s conversation with him, this player preferred to remain anonymous; he did not want to publicly impugn his late teammate or his family, nor did he want to become embroiled in a public controversy. But this player told Hurte that Ostermueller did portray bigoted sentiments during his time with the Pirates. The unnamed teammate said that Ostermueller once referred to Robinson by saying, “I’m going to hit that black bastard.” Based on that remark, the teammate believed that Ostermueller threw at Robinson intentionally, and for reasons having to do with race.

It is the player’s prerogative to remain anonymous. And it is certainly ethical for Hurte to respect the player’s right to privacy. At the same time, Hurte believed (and still believes) that the teammate is a credible source, one without an axe to grind. He believed the teammate when he described Ostermueller in such a way. And I happen to think that Hurte is being perfectly forthright and sincere here, to the point that I am willing to use Hurte as a secondary source.

Now for some readers, that might not be good enough. And I understand that. But given the passage of time, and the lack of eyewitnesses surviving from the 1940s, it is the best we have to go on in trying to reconstruct events from nearly 70 years ago.

So what conclusions can we draw from this experience? First off, 42 erred badly in its characterization of Ostermueller, particularly in showing him to have hit head Robinson in the head, when he did not. That’s an important detail to miss, and one that exaggerates the severity of the incident.

Second, Ostermueller does not seem to be completely innocent. Based on the recollections of a teammate, Ostermueller had racist feelings, and allowed those feelings to manifest themselves in the form of a hateful incident. That doesn’t necessarily make Ostermueller any different from many players of that era, but it is an incident that is definitely part of the Robinson story.

Both the filmmakers and Ostermueller appear to have made mistakes. Let’s hope the final record reflects those shortcomings.

References and Resources
Fritz Ostermueller's biographical file at the National Baseball Hall of Fame Library

Bruce Markusen is the author of seven books on baseball, including the award-winning A Baseball Dynasty: Charlie Finley’s Swingin’ A’s, the recipient of the Seymour Medal from the Society for American Baseball Research. He has also written The Team That Changed Baseball: Roberto Clemente and the 1971 Pittsburgh Pirates, Tales From The Mets Dugout, and The Orlando Cepeda Story.

<< Return to Article Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 6, Vol. III from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 6, Vol. III

by Karl de Vries
May 10, 2013

As Week 6 draws to a close, I’ll choose to sing the praises of waiver wire protege and current success story Scott Kazmir, who slammed the door on Oakland in a 10-strikeout performance yesterday. Obviously, he’s already starting to gain traction in mixed leagues, as is Dee Gordon, who was hitting above .300 since his call-up last week. Meanwhile, I’ll choose to look down at the ground and rub my neck as I mention the likes of Lucas Harrell and Jose Quintana, neither of whom have impressed all that much since making cameo appearances on the wire. I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention how Jack Weiland, my waiver wire wingman, somewhat courageously suggested that John Lackey could once again be useful in mixed leagues, evidenced by three decent starts entering Thursday’s action.

Today, we’ll take a look at two troubled bullpens in Boston and Arizona as we mine for fantasy gold. In both cases, my column is a couple of days behind the ball, but surely some of these guys are still available in enough leagues as we near the beginning of Week 7, so let’s get started.

Junichi Tazawa | RP | Boston Red Sox | 50 percent Yahoo ownership; 55.8 percent ESPN; 35 percent CBS
YTD: 15.1 IP / 2.98 FIP / 11.15 K/9 / 1.76 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 78 IP / 3.45 FIP / 9.19 K/9 / 2.91 BB/9


Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan hit the DL this week within three days of each other, plunging the Red Sox’ rotation into a crisis. The bullpen’s depth zapped, the Red Sox have deployed Tazawa, 26, as the team’s closer, a role he’ll retain at least heading into the upcoming week.

Bailey, 28, who excelled in the role in his brief time at the closer’s helm, is ailing from sore right biceps he suffered late last month, and on Monday, he was retroactively placed on the DL. Meanwhile, Hanrahan hit the disabled list on Wednesday with a forearm strain after he “just couldn’t take it anymore” two days earlier in a blown save against the Twins. Although an early MRI showed no structural damage in Hanrahan’s elbow, the team moved him to the 60-day DL yesterday, and even if he doesn’t undergo surgery, it’s clear that his fantasy value has been nuked for much of 2013, making him droppable across the board.

From a fantasy perspective, it’s a bit unfortunate that Tazawa is stuck behind two established closers in the Red Sox’ bullpen, because his credentials at the age of 26 are nice to look at: 8.31 K/9 and a 1.87 walk rate, a career 3.23 FIP in 86.2 innings and a strong ability to strand runners. This year, he’s off to an even better start, and has seen his average fastball velocity tick up to 93 mph, though he does have two blown saves among his 16 appearances.

Unless Bailey’s injury is more catastrophic than was originally let on, there’s no chance we’re looking at a new long-term closer change right now, despite Tazawa’s appeal. Heck, Bailey is due to come back on Tuesday, so Tazawa might not even have that much value for owners in weekly leagues looking to pick up some cheap saves in Week 7. We’ll keep an eye on Bailey’s progress (and whether he'll need a rehab assignment early next week), and with Hanrahan gone, Tazawa is now the logical No. 2 man in Boston’s bullpen. Considering the Jersey boy's own vulnerability, a future scenario where Tazawa gets another chance to step up in 2013 is not inconceivable.

Recommendation: Green light in all leagues until Bailey’s return.

Heath Bell | Arizona Diamondbacks | RP | 40 percent Yahoo ownership; 35.8 percent ESPN; 31 percent CBS
YTD: 14.1 IP / 2.64 FIP / 12.56 K/9 / 1.88 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 62.3 IP / 3.10 FIP / 9.67 K/9 / 2.89 BB/9


David Hernandez | Arizona Diamondbacks | RP | 19 percent Yahoo ownership; 11.5 percent ESPN; 18 percent CBS
YTD: 15.2 IP / 5.79 FIP / 9.19 K/9 / 4.60 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 68.2 IP / 3.70 FIP / 10.75 K/9 / 3.93 BB/9


It’s been a good run in Arizona for J.J. Putz, who’s been a top fantasy earner for the past two seasons. But those days seem to be quickly nearing an end, as the right-hander is plagued by a right elbow strain. For a guy who’s gotten positively abused so far in 2013 (four blown saves in nine chances and a 1.58 WHIP), this news sounds not the least bit ominous, and Putz owners need to untangle themselves from the 36-year-old’s immediate future right away.

That could set up a classic closer battle in Arizona, featuring an experienced name player in Bell and a top set up man in Hernandez, both of whom are qualified for the job.

We’ll start with Bell, whom manager Kirk Gibson said on Wednesday would get first dibs at the ninth inning, proving it by letting him earn the save that night against the Dodgers. Still, despite averaging 38 saves over the past four seasons and being considered a top reliever on the free agent market just 18 months ago, Bell hardly steps up immediately as a set-him-and-forget-him closer option, not after he was demoted by the Marlins last year following a nightmarish first half. In 2013, Bell’s slightly diminished fastball velocity might be responsible for what’s been a bad 29.7 percent line drive rate, which in turn is manifested in an unsightly .417 BABIP. At the same time, however, I’m encouraged by a 9.2 swinging strike rate and the 12.56 K/9 it’s produced, especially in contrast to a 1.88 BB/9, even if it’s necessary to acknowledge what’s just a 15-appearance sample size.

But since we won’t know for a while if Bell can fully regain the magic of his Padres days, we might as well familiarize himself with Hernandez, Arizona’s eighth-inning guardian. With a combined a 2.94 ERA, 11.4 K/9 and 1.08 WHIP between 2011 and 2012, Hernandez, who turns 28 on Monday, established himself as one of the National League’s best setup men entering the year. But it’s been a rough start to 2013 for him so far, and with Gibson clearly preferring Bell’s experience, Hernandez is merely a handcuff option in fantasy until the ex-Padre falters.

Recommendation: Add Bell across the board while keeping an eye on Hernandez.

Kelly Johnson | Tampa Bay Rays | 2B | 24 percent Yahoo ownership; 33 percent ESPN; 44 percent CBS
YTD: 105 PA / .283 / .362 / .489 with 5 HR and 4 SB
ZiPS updated: 559 PA / .239 / .325 / .409 with 19 HR and 14 SB


Back in the good old days of early 2011, Johnson ranked among the top second basemen to target in fantasy, coming off a .866 OPS season that was padded with 26 homers and 13 steals. Unfortunately, the batting average took a nosedive in the next two seasons, and by the time 2013 dawned, the 31-year-old had dipped below the radar screens of many mixed league owners.

But as we embark to enter Week 7, we applaud Johnson’s .283 average and 138 wRC+, because not only are those numbers solid, but they’re even more valuable as a middle infielder. Too bad they’re largely the byproduct of a BABIP surge (.339 entering Thursday’s action) and a generous HR/FB rate that is out of character for an eight-year veteran. It’d be nice to believe that Johnson’s bat has suddenly been invigorated with some kind of magic power, but a 15 percent line drive rate is nothing to write home about, especially as his strikeout rate remains stuck at nearly 25 percent.

Obviously, a second baseman with pop will find a home in large pockets of fantasy baseball, and in Johnson’s case, his outfield eligibility will make him even more attractive. But his value will take a dive once his batting average comes back down to earth, and with hurlers like Jon Lester, Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen lined up in Week 7, that decline might get started in the very near future.

Recommendation: I’m passing in mixed leagues unless someone I care about gets hurt.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

<< Return to Article Still life, after all from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Still life, after all

by Azure Texan
May 10, 2013

On Jan. 19, just 10 days after the Baseball Writers Association of America denied 37 men a place in the pantheon of immortal major leaguers by refusing to elect them to the Hall of Fame, a pair of websites did something like the opposite, crediting two former players with their rightful positions in the larger house, the darker house, of good old-fashioned mortality.

On that day in January—a month named, incidentally, for two-faced Janus, the Roman god who gazed toward the future and the past at once—National Pastime reported that exactly 113 years earlier, in Brookfield, Mass., Boston Beaneaters catcher Marty Bergen murdered his family with an ax and then committed suicide. Meanwhile, over at FanGraphs, writer Carson Cistulli dusted off the sad tale of Al Thake, a 22-year-old Brooklyn Atlantics outfielder who in 1872 drowned while fishing in New York Harbor.

In postmortems of the postmortems, both sites made mention of the treatment accorded each decedent. National Pastime divulged that only one Beaneater teammate, future Hall of Famer Billy Hamilton, attended Bergen’s funeral, while FanGraphs offered proof that no fewer than four obituaries were published in the aftermath of Thake’s unlucky, untimely passing.

Tones and details differed across the obits, with one noting that Thake “stood high in professional fraternity for integrity of character and genial disposition,” and another stating that the body of Thake, “of 293 Smith Street, was found on the beach”—a passage about as flowery as a line from The Plumbers Handbook. A third noted that the “melancholy occurrence” took place when Thake “fell out of the boat and the tide carried him instantly beyond the reach of his comrades,” while a fourth claimed that he “was a good swimmer, but it is thought he got entangled in the fish lines.”

What the obits had in common, of course, was the one fact central to a death notice and thus to life itself: the man had up and died. Like Bergen, though under wholly different circumstances, Thake had succumbed to the equalizing law of nature, the universal rule that inspired 16th-century artists to render unto posterity a vast collection of vanitas still life paintings—the tableaux often included bubbles to symbolize the brevity of life, and human skulls to represent the certain and indiscriminate nature of death—and ancient Romans to conceive of a timeless caution to peasants and patricians alike: memento mori. Remember your mortality. Remember you must die.

Jamie Moyer notwithstanding, baseball is a game best endeavored by relatively young men, players whose ability to hit inner-half heat or throw outer-half cheese has conferred upon them an apparent resistance, if not a seeming immunity, to Father Time and his odious sidekick, the ageless Angel of Death. The age-20 season of Mike Trout, for example, would seem a sturdy wedge against the well-chronicled and otherwise inevitable age-33 decline, a downturn that as far as Trout is concerned has been dispatched to unthinkable distance by a catch that will never get old, that made time hold still, that will preserve the boyish upstart in a moment spent waaaaaaaay above the center field fence, where, as a different ageless Angel, he will always rebel against the graybeard while resisting the demands of gravity.

And what about those headlong baseline sprints of the young Bryce Harper? You can just picture them, can’t you?—the helmet flying off, the legs churning, the 19-year-old body trying to outrace, desperately, an opponent just dyyyying to kill the spirit he so immodestly embodies, a freshness envied by the elders and celebrated with every step its agent takes in defiance of their retaliatory pursuit.

You can say it’s just a bubble, a vapor, smoke that will drift and vanish like all the impermanencies of every still life on Earth, but the paintings are still here, aren’t they?—in permanent collections, before passing audiences, reminding every mortal of the fate that awaits him but also memorializing if not quite eulogizing the artisanal strokes that put a series of passing moments into the permanence of the framed vanitas. Cooperstown waits for this one, you imagine: Harper, heading there fast.

At the same time, those Brycian sprints look like deft warranties against the “anti-aging” strategies of an over-the-hill A-Rod, the secret nostrums and esoteric rituals designed to rescue a 37-year-old body from a hostage-taker—hello, human condition—that is consistently opposed to ransom offers.

It is strange to remember, then, that A-Rod, too, played in the majors at age 19, as did Tony Conigliaro, each so brilliant in the colors of springtime that he never could have foreseen the way his paint would dry, never could have predicted the way the world would eventually view him. And what of Ray Chapman and Cy Bentley? After debuting in the bigs at 21, each would see a final pitch in a way he might never have imagined, and each would add to an unfinished canvas—one that includes Thake’s sad bubbles and Conigliaro’s tragic skull—the specter of death and something like the opposite of aging.




Seasons are long but seem short in hindsight, collapsed into a handy series of summary capsules and clickable lists of synoptic numbers, but the players themselves move swiftly into our memories of them, our mental and sometimes material images of stunning displays of skill and power and mind-blowing speed, each delivered by arms and legs not yet ceded to the greedy clutches of old-age complaint, the gimpy knees and creaky elbows.

Stilled in the frames we hang in our halls, then, are the instant achievements of not-yet-retirement-age cells: Reggie thumping the third of three Game Six homers, his 31-year-old muscles forever poised in a quick uncoiling; Willie closing in on the World Series drive, his 23-year-old body always in a moment that prohibits eternal rest; Jackie Robinson sliding into a precious home plate, his 36-year-old toes always winning (or not!) what could have been lost, and always awarding to the host body an apparent amnesty from the brutal mandates of time; and finally, Robin flailing in an older man’s armpit, his 26-year-old face pummeled into hilarious perpetuity by a 46-year-old fist.

Okay, maybe that last one’s a bad example, but still, there it is, a permanent piece in baseball’s collection of lasting impressions, and an image that steals from time’s trajectory an instant when everyone is young enough to fight, when the pride of vitality is reason enough to bleed, and when, like Gilgamesh, grown men pull against the power of mortality to take the plunge toward the everlasting, because what else is there but to vanish, to be forever retired, to be cast toward the grave and away from the field of play?

Swept into permanence by the swiftest of passing actions, each masterwork—Jackson’s completion of the hat trick, Mays’ over-the-shoulder catch, Robinson’s theft of home—seems indeed to have been a kind of magnum opus, the term ancient alchemists used to describe the process for creating the famed Philosopher’s Stone. And what did people want with this Philosopher’s Stone? Why, when their chances of obtaining it seemed pretty unrealistic, did they work so diligently to produce the magical substance?

The answer still echoes in the silly infomercials of today, with their facile pledges of never-ending youth, and in every religion that still promises what Gilgamesh briefly embraced and then permanently lost: eternal life. Mindful of the bill that everyone must pay, the alchemists claimed that by ingesting just a bit of the stuff, a person could cheat the Reaper and live forever, youthfully, with the speed and vigor of Mercury, Adonis and Zeus, gods whose power derived at least in part from their refusal to surrender to age.

Here in the real world, of course, no such elixir exists. Knees stiffen and postures stoop, regardless of the alchemy that some mortals seek, and sooner or later—though too often sooner—life pulls the plug on the thumping heart, even if that heart belongs to a big-league ballplayer and even if that player yielded exploits so prone to preservation that they will outlast the body that gave them life. And here today is the late Roger Maris, slamming No. 61 into the adhesive permanence of a U.S. postage stamp. Maris, who died in 1983 at a relatively young 51, wouldn’t live long enough to see the stop-action snapshot of his record-setting swing take on the immortality that his body could never match, but he would live long enough to see it enshrined in the venerated canon of baseball imagery, alongside the deathless images of Mays, Robinson and Bobby Thomson, whose Shot Heard Round The World would eventually take shape as The Shot Seen Through Time.

And here for all time, just as he was there for a short time, is the young Flying Scot, his swing needing just 200 microseconds of a single minute—3:58 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, to be precise—of a single day—Oct. 3, actually—in the Year of Our Lord 1951 to send a Ralph Branca fastball into an image so timeless that it seems a keepsake in a precious public gallery, and yet into records so bloodless that they can’t possibly speak to the bliss and heartache that they actually represent—real emotions, permanently divided and distributed by the tiniest slivers of time and space, that in many cases have gone to the grave with the people who carried (or dragged) them around for the rest of their natural lives.

Also left unstated—box scores are good at objective summary but not so good with predictive wisdom—are the future prospects of the 20-year-old center fielder who waited on-deck while Thomson sent that ball into the life of the world to come. Though dispatched in the instant to a portrait at home plate, he would eventually go on to hit some homers, steal some bases and make an immortal catch, but at the time he was just the Say Hey Kid.




Time and gravity. Einstein made note of their teamwork, and he was right: Together they’ve snatched the once and future Willie Mays and brought him back down to Earth, in the form of a figure aged 81 years and change, and yet the man is still the breathing embodiment of what he once was and what he will always be: that almost godlike figure in a picture we don’t even need to see, a picture we can simply conjure from its place in the everlasting.

With it in perpetuity are other snapshots, both in color and black-and-white, of young men elevated into semidivine status not only by the outcomes of those moments but, just as often, of the body of work those moments represent. And here today is Gehrig, long before his everlasting speech, fixed in a follow-through so powerful that it hints at invincibility, an attribute that couldn’t possibly be real. And here tomorrow will be Clemente, in the time before his flight, lifting the left knee high and cocking those powerful hands, the whole of his body coiled for that one pitch, that one fastball or slider or otherwise trivial curve, whose outcome might add its testimony to an inerasable number: 3,000, as it turned out, forever 3,000.

Gehrig and Clemente, like Bergen and Thake, were among the dozens of major leaguers cut down during their careers, each man’s legacy arrested in mid-stride, it seems, and evermore illustrated by pictures that would never let the man go gray and by numbers that would never get past a premature finale.

Some were casualties of illness: Bill Blair died of influenza in 1890, Addie Joss of meningitis in 1911, King Cole of tuberculosis in 1916, Urban Shocker of pneumonia in 1928, Walt Bond of leukemia in 1967 and Danny Thompson of the same disease in 1976. (The list literally goes on.) Some players succumbed to other maladies – Austin McHenry to a brain tumor in 1922, Tiny Bonham to appendicitis in 1949, Harry Agganis to a pulmonary embolism in 1955, Darryl Kile to a heart defect in 2002. Still others, like Tony Boeckel, in 1924, and Nick Adenhart, in 2009, were victims of car accidents, and five players—Charlie Peete, Ken Hubbs, Thurman Munson, Cory Lidle and of course Clemente—sadly went down with the planes.

A boat accident claimed Tim Crews and Steven Olin. A dune buggy accident felled Danny Frisella. Homicide took Gus Polidor, Miguel Fuentes, Lyman Bostock and Greg Halman, and suicide claimed Dan McGann and Willard Hershberger, McGann following two of his siblings and Hershberger ending a slump in the most drastic of fashions. Killed in World Wars I and II, respectively, were Eddie Grant and Elmer Gedeon, and even if Grant’s extraordinary story had already registered his retirement from the game, Gedeon’s had not.

Other players suffered fates considerably less noble: In 1903, drunk and disorderly on a night near Buffalo, future Hall of Famer Ed Delahanty went to his mysterious death in a plunge over Niagara Falls, and in 1935, Len Koenecke, also drunk and disorderly on a night near Buffalo, had his time ended in an almost unfathomably bizarre skirmish.

Denied retirement, each player (except for the suiciders) left the game at a time not of his choosing, but it was Cleveland shortstop Ray Chapman who on Aug. 17, 1920, earned immortality the hard way by suffering a fatal injury on the field, succumbing some 12 hours after taking a Carl Mays fastball to the head. Chapman left behind a lifetime WAR of 27.0, proof that while all men are irreplaceable, some are more irreplaceable than others. Each creates a void that other physiques will never precisely fill, thus consigning to nothingness the customized shape of hustle doubles and off-balance throws, but some bequeath to poor replacements—hey, Babe Dahlgren was good, but he wasn’t Lou Gehrig good—truly unfillable shoes.

Replacement for Chapman arrived first in the form of Harry Lunte, who, after stepping in as a pinch runner, went on to amass a lifetime WAR of -0.7, and then in the person of Joe Sewell, who unlike Lunte and Chapman would earn a place in the Hall of Fame. Still, you could argue that Chapman left a mark more enduring than lifetime stats or even Hall enshrinement. His legacy, in defiance of mere mourning and in a departure from simple synopsis, would become more forward-looking than backward-looking when the ghosts of his fatal beaning inspired the chiefs of Major League Baseball to ban the dangerous spitball and to mandate the use of batting helmets.

You can be sure that Chapman would have preferred not to martyr himself to a future of life-saving practices, preferred not to have given his life, Christ-like, so that others might live. Messiahs are cut from different cloths, not from shirts that say “Cleveland,” and mortal life in its earliest phases is a space in which to ignore the prospect of death, to defer to some remind-me-later time the truth of memento mori and the fact of vanitas still life. But Chapman might rest in a sweeter peace were he to know of his posthumous contribution—that men like Ron Cey, Mike Piazza, David Wright and Ian Kinsler are still around to enjoy the game, reaping the spoils of retirement or striving to create lasting proofs of their time on the field of play. History suggests that if not for the helmet, their stories might have ended in the dirt.

But chaos still favors the margins of baseball, patrolling the narrow dividers between victory and ultimate defeat: One player whom Chapman’s ghost could not save, and whom youth could not resurrect, was Tony Conigliaro. On Aug. 18, 1967, at a time when the 22-year-old Red Sox outfielder had already amassed 104 big-league homers, Conigliaro suffered major damage to his left retina when hit by a fastball just below the helmet. Severely impaired, he missed the rest of that season and all of the next before returning in 1969 and posting career-best numbers in 1970, only to fall victim to compromised eyesight in 1971 and leave the sport. He would return, briefly, in 1975, but by then he was a sad ghost of his former self.

At 30—an age when Jamie Moyer had posted just 36 of his eventual 269 big-league wins—Conigliaro would retire, leaving unfinished what might have been a Hall of Fame career. (For his part, Hamilton would quickly develop a fear of pitching inside and, after posting an 0-5 record and 6.49 ERA in 1969, leave the game for good.) Seven years later, at 37, the onetime teenage rookie would suffer a heart attack and a stroke and then spend the rest of his life in a vegetative state before passing away, in 1990, at 45—an age when Moyer would post a 3.71 ERA and a 16-7 record.

Longevity is a contract that no one can claim; epitaphs and stat lines wait with equal urgency in the same class of margins that divide home runs from fly balls, safe calls from outs. In the end, what lasts is what you could never quite foresee. And so the viewer is left to ask himself: What is my lasting impression of Tony Conigliaro? Is it his Topps All-Star Rookie card, a portrait that shows a teenager’s eyes focused one some unformed future beyond the edges of the frame, or is it a later picture, of a 22-year-old man in a hospital bed, his black eye shut to what his right eye must see?




On Jan. 19, 1937, exactly 37 years after Marty Bergen committed a horrifying murder-suicide, Cy Young, Nap Lajoie and Tris Speaker each earned a place among the immortals by gaining election to the Hall of Fame.

On Jan. 19, 1961, exactly 29 years after Commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis denied Shoeless Joe Jackson’s appeal for reinstatement, and exactly 11 years before former Dodger southpaw Sandy Koufax, at age 36, became the youngest player ever elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame, former Rookie of the Year Don Newcombe announced his retirement, thus ending a once-flourishing career that had already stalled in a whiskey bottle.

Promising starts and premature endings, like first pitches and final outs, are inseparable from the sport of baseball, each anointing this date or that date as a happy or sad anniversary. No doubt, the two-faced god of transitions—of debuts and finales, of springtime hope and lifelong despair—presides as much over baseball as over other earthly endeavors. The facts of life are one with the game and guarantee its persistence through time.

New players will always replace old players before turning old themselves, and old players will always try to prolong their youth, through whatever means possible, before yielding to age and mortality. Koufax, like his successors Conigliaro, A-Rod, Trout and Harper, made his big-league debut at 19, signaling to the realm of possibility that a 300-win career had just begun, but after an age-30 season in which he posted a 27-9 record and a 1.73 ERA while earning his third Cy Young Award, the lefty succumbed to that most old-mannish of maladies, arthritis, and announced his retirement.

But Koufax, like Gilgamesh, has graced the Earth as both a historical figure and an epic figure, a man of the people who nonetheless played a central role in a legendary, cautionary tale while leaving for future generations a legacy of masterpieces to which to aspire. Today he is aging gracefully, and when his time is up he’ll have his hereafter in Cooperstown. Ars longa, vita brevis.

Meantime, though preternaturally gifted and precociously introduced, the man we might call Ozymandiarod has tried to redefine biogenesis and stay “forever young,” prolonging his mojo with pharmaceutical alchemy while boosting his Hall of Fame bona fides, which in a remarkably ironic twist appear to have taken a hit.

A-Rod can knock, but he might not get in. Sic transit 600-plus home runs.

In any case, long after A-Rod is gone from the game, talk of “legacy” will remain a part of his legacy. Math will still merge with biography to weigh on the keepers of fame, and myth will have its junction with fact. And so the viewers will continue to ask: How will we remember these players? Will we remember Marty Bergen as a catcher-turned-killer, or as an example that gifted athletes are not immune to the problems of the world? Will we remember Billy Hamilton as a player who stole 100-plus bases in each of his first three full seasons en route to the Hall of Fame, or as a man so reverent of humanity that he attended the funeral of a fatally troubled teammate?

And what of Charlie Peete? Will we remember him as a player we never had a chance to remember, or as a man we shouldn’t forget? Is he a lost prospect in a grainy photo, or a testament to what might happen and to what will?

And how about Miguel Fuentes? Will we remember the right-hander as the answer to a trivia question? Who threw the final pitch for the Seattle Pilots? Or might we recall him with a question much less trivial? Why must promise sometimes be snuffed?

We know for the most part how we’ll remember, say, the Say Hey Kid and The Luckiest Man On The Face Of The Earth, but no one knows for certain how we’ll look back on the likes of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Their images have taken shape, no doubt, but have yet to finish forming.

Once the season begins, we can wonder if the moments they produce, rather than the proofs of that production, are enough to sustain their passion for the game, or if the prospects of immortal images and everlasting plaques are the engines that drive them upward and onward, the motors that make their young cells go. Meanwhile, the players might realize that the most rabid of fans are kind of right: Baseball is just a game, sure, but it’s still life and death. Every instant, after all, is the beginning of the end, and every end begins always.

Take Al Thake. On Aug. 9, 1872, at Hartford Trotting Park, the 22-year-old left fielder went 2 for 5 at the plate, with one RBI and one run scored, against eventual loser Cy Bentley. Twenty-six days later, Thake was dead.

As for the 21-year-old Bentley, he would end the season—and his career—with a record of 2-15 and an ERA of 6.06. Some seven months after delivering a final pitch to Thake, the pitcher would die of tuberculosis.

To his credit, he did complete 14 of the 17 games he started.

Azure Texan is a writer living in Austin.

<< Return to Article Oh Dusty from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Oh Dusty

by Pat Andriola
May 09, 2013



Pat Andriola is a JD/MBA student at NYU. He likes the Mets a lot. You can contact him at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

<< Return to Article And That Happened from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

And That Happened

by Craig Calcaterra
May 09, 2013



Craig writes the HardballTalk blog for NBC Sports.com

<< Return to Article 40th anniversary: back-to-back first homers from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

40th anniversary: back-to-back first homers

by Chris Jaffe
May 09, 2013



History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. Oh, and now he's on twitter.

<< Return to Article The Roto Grotto: rates versus opportunities from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The Roto Grotto: rates versus opportunities

by Scott Spratt
May 09, 2013

Z-Scores allow you to compare rate and counting statistics because they scale each category based on the average and standard deviation of that category. However, they do not address the issue of opportunity. As a reader pointed out last week, Felix Hernandez went one for three last season, but his .333 batting average was not more valuable in fantasy than the .319 batting average Ryan Braun produced over 598 at bats.

There are several reasons there is not an easy answer. First, the issue applies to counting stats as well as rate stats. Last season, Jose Reyes and Ben Revere each stole 40 bases, but Reyes needed 716 plate appearances while Revere needed only 553 plate appearances. If you were only concerned about winning steals, then Revere was clearly more valuable. You could replace him with a waiver-wire player for the 36 fewer games he played than Reyes and pick up a handful of extra steals.

The Reyes-Revere example illustrates the second complication. There is an additional underlying opportunity that owners have to consider, which is chances to start a player. Hypothetically, two players could have the same number of plate appearances and the same number of stolen bases but play in a different number of games. Over the course of the season, the difference in number of plate appearances for players batting in different spots in the order or batting in the same spot but on teams with different offensive levels can be significant, as Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN recently showed. In addition, players with clear platoon splits tend to pinch hit or be pulled in the late innings of games because of pitcher match-ups.

So, for every statistic, you need to account for opportunities to start a player, and with rate statistics, you need to account for differences in opportunities within each opportunity to start. Your league type will determine the number of opportunities you have to start a player, but I’ll consider leagues with daily lineups for this so I can use games played to approximate it.

First, I calculated each counting stat per games played. Returning to an earlier example, Jose Reyes stole 40 bases in 160 games in 2012, which is 0.25 steals per game. Ben Revere stole 40 bases in 124 games, which is 0.32 steals per game.

Next, I calculated the Z-Scores of counting stats per game. I followed the same method that I used to calculate the Z-Scores for season totals, but substituted the means and standard deviations of those per game statistics. Reyes and Revere had a zSB of 4.00 and 2.90, respectively.

For rate stats, the per game averages are the same as the season averages, but I can then scale those Z-Scores based on opportunities. Last season, Derek Jeter led baseball with 683 at bats. I can use that as my denominator. For example, Felix Hernandez had a raw Z-Score of about 2.45 because of his .333 batting average. However, if I scale that with his three at bats divided by the 683 maximum possible at bats, his scaled zAvg is only 0.01. In contrast, Ryan Braun has a scaled zAvg of 1.63 despite a lesser .319 average because of his 598 at bats.

Now, I finally have counting and rate stats apples to apples. A simple addition of the Z-Scores in each category provides an overall value, similar to a player rate. Here is the top-10 from 2012:













PlayerSeasonzHRzSBzRBIzRunzAvgzTotal
Mike Trout20121.884.451.333.711.6613.02
Ryan Braun20122.642.062.112.131.6310.57
Miguel Cabrera20122.75-0.512.921.961.959.07
Josh Hamilton20123.01-0.172.932.090.748.61
Andrew McCutchen20121.601.041.411.991.807.85
Edwin Encarnacion20122.820.422.121.540.637.52
Giancarlo Stanton20123.16-0.151.941.500.687.13
Jose Bautista20123.05-0.071.982.09-0.146.92
Matt Kemp20121.890.401.652.110.836.88



As you can see, different players reach the top in different ways. Four of the top-10 players are actually negative contributors in a category (or two).

Scott was named Newcomer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for his fantasy football writing at Pro Football Focus. In addition, he contributes to ESPN Insider as a research associate for Baseball Info Solutions. You can reach him on Twitter.

<< Return to Article Swing rates: the John Farrell effect from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Swing rates: the John Farrell effect

by Moe Koltun
May 09, 2013

In 2012, the Boston Red Sox had exactly one pitcher finish inside the bottom 50 of major league baseball in a statistic called ‘Swing Rate Against,’ (tracked by Baseball Prospectus) which is the percentage of the time opposing hitters swing against a certain pitcher. Last year, the John Farrell-managed Blue Jays had five pitchers finish among the 50 lowest Swing Rates Against.

This year, without John Farrell, the Blue Jays currently have two pitchers in the bottom 50 in Swing Rate Against, and after adding him, the Red Sox have four pitchers in the bottom 20. Usually, a manager doesn’t have that much of an impact on the way already-established guys pitch, but Farrell is clearly a pitching-centric manager, and a swing that huge cannot solely be attributed to coincidence. So, what’s changed about the way the Red Sox pitchers are pitching this year?

Having a low swing rate itself doesn’t necessarily correlate to success. Pitchers can put up good stats with high or low swing rates—Stephen Strasburg, Felix Hernandez and Matt Harvey are all in the top 10 highest Swing Rates Against so far this year. So, what specifically has changed about Ryan Dempster, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, and Felix Doubront to garner this lower Swing Rate Against, as well as make them improve as pitchers? Let’s go one by one and see how each has changed their pitching approach this season.

Clay Buchholz: Buchholz has shown the starkest improvement among the Red Sox starters this year, which was mirrored by him also having the starkest contrast in his Swing Rate Against the last two seasons. In 2012, Buchholz posted a 44.55 percent Swing Rate Against, good for 113th in baseball, whereas this year he has a 38.14 percent mark, good for 13th in the league.

That change can be largely attributed to a shift in Buchholz’s pitching style and control—in 2012, the Sox starter managed to land only 52.1 percent of his pitches in the strike zone, and this year he’s upped that number all the way to 66.8 percent. That has led to hitters chasing less against him, but on the other hand, also to way fewer hitter-friendly counts, allowing Buchholz to remain ahead of the hitter in most at bats against him. I think Buchholz’s newfound control is legitimate, and I have him in my top 25 starters the rest of the way.

Jon Lester: The biggest change for Lester this year has been the efficacy of his fastball. In his prime, Lester’s best pitch was his cutter, but as of last year (and continuing into this year) the pitch has been below average for him. The meat of Lester’s arsenal is his fastball/cutter combination, and if those two things can’t play off each other, he won’t have success.

That being said, this year, even if the cutter isn’t back to its old tricks, it is setting up his four seam fastball really nicely. This is leading the pitch to a Fangraphs pitch value of 5.3 so far this year, good for 12th among starters in the majors. Lester is utilizing both his four-seamer and cutter more than in 2012, using the two pitches 61 percent of the time (then) versus 69 percent of the time (now). Even if the cutter hasn’t shown efficacy itself, it has helped his fastball regain its former value. The more he uses both, the more comfortable he’ll be.

Ryan Dempster: Dempster already garnered very few swings-against coming into this year, with a 38.60 percent Swing Rate Against in 2012. That’s nothing compared to his 32.13 percent rate this year, good for lowest in the major leagues. Farrell has really shifted the way Dempster has used his arsenal, as he went from a mostly sinkers guy, throwing his fastball only 18 percent of the time in 2012, to a mostly fourseam fastballs guy, using it 41 percent of the time this season.

Not only is he using the fourseamer more, though, Dempster is also locating the pitch significantly better, largely by just not leaving it up as much. In 2012, he left his fastball in the upper part of the zone or higher 34.5 percent of the time, and so far in 2013 that number has dropped down to 25.5 percent despite using the pitch much more often. This improved command and greater utilization of the fastball has contributed to Dempster’s career-high strikeout rate and, while I don’t think he will stay at that 11.51 K/9 number, I do think he will finish the season above 9.0 K/9 for the first time in his career.

Felix Doubront: Doubront is the only pitcher on this list who is a true "buy low" right now. The biggest shift in Doubront’s pitching style makes the fact that he is garnering way less swings this year make a lot of sense: last year, 19.2 percent of his pitches were in the ‘middle plane’ of the strike zone (neither outside the zone nor on the inner or outer third). This season, only 15.7 percent of his pitches are in the middle plane and in the strike zone.

Focusing his attention on the inner and outer planes of the plate has led Doubront to elevate his walk rate, but as he works out the kinks and works on his control, he should be able to get that walk rate back down into the 4.0 BB/9 range. Right now, Doubront’s BABIP of .397 is the third highest in major league baseball, and that should lead savvy owners to be able to acquire him for a fraction of his value. Doubront has serious strikeout upside, and I’d project him for a 3.50-3.75 ERA the rest of the way with some solid positive regression.

Overall, the moral to the Red Sox story is that John Farrell isn’t the type of manager who has one, overarching theory that he applies to all of his pitchers; rather, he is the type of manager that takes each pitcher case by case and figures out the best strategy to maximize their specific talents. Going forward, any pitcher that goes to the Sox should be treated with the leeway we used to associate with Dave Duncan and still associate with Don Cooper—Farrell just has a way of figuring out how to make these guys pitch their best.


Moe Koltun is a co-founder of RotoAnalysis.com and hosts the weekly RotoAnalysis Fantasy Sports Podcast. Follow him on Twitter @moeproblems.

<< Return to Article Winning, TWTW, and the purpose of baseball from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Winning, TWTW, and the purpose of baseball

by Matt Hunter
May 09, 2013

A few weeks ago, Chicago White Sox broadcaster and former White Sox general manager Hawk Harrelson talked with Brian Kenny, who some are calling the “face of sabermetrics,” on MLB Network. Among many gems from Hawk—and trust me, there were many—was the official introduction of his landmark metric: TWTW, or The Will To Win.

TWTW unleashed a barrage of tweets and articles from the Sabermetric Snark Society (of which I am a proud lifelong member). And for good reason. To say that the only thing that matters in baseball is the will to win is, frankly, silly. In fact, I think, I hope, that Hawk would agree that it’s silly. No matter how much I want to win, I will never be good enough to play professional baseball. Talent matters. That’s a fact, and everyone knows it.

But this isn't a “bash TWTW” article. Bashing is fun, but it’s not terribly productive or interesting. I want to talk about why Hawk brought up TWTW in the first place. I want to talk about where that idea, that idea that we should ignore all other factors because winning is all that matters, is coming from. Because it’s true, in a way. Winning is, when it comes down to it, all that matters.

Now, let’s be clear: I truly believe that the end—that is, the ultimate purpose—of baseball, and of any sport, is not winning. Baseball exists to be enjoyed in whatever way we see fit. Yes, winning is more enjoyable than losing, and yes, for an organization, winning is by far the best way to make money. But in both of those cases, winning is simply a means to the end of either personal happiness or endless riches.*

*Of course, the purpose of endless riches, in theory, is also happiness. In fact, isn't everything just a means to happiness in the end? I think so. But I digress.

So, sure, winning isn't the end goal of the sport. But that’s only if we take an outside perspective of the game. If we look at baseball as a spectator or as a writer or as a broadcaster or as a general manager, we can see a purpose of baseball outside of winning the game.

Yet if we transport ourselves inside the game—empathize, if you will, with the players and coaches—our perspective shifts. The game is no longer about being happy or making money. The game is about winning. Everything is done in order to win the game, because winning the game is the ultimate goal; the reason you play in the first place. The purpose of the game of baseball itself, removed from the outside world, is to win. That seems, at least to me, to be a fundamental and obvious notion.

Of course, once we admit, or at least reluctantly agree to assume for the purposes of moving the argument forward, that winning is the end of a baseball game, we can imagine the following conversation coming about:

A: Ok, fine, I admit that winning is all that matters. So how do you win a game?
B: Oh, well that’s simple! All you have to do to win is score more runs than the other team!
A: And how do you score more runs than the other team?
B: Well, two ways: score runs on offense and prevent runs on defense.
A: Hey, that doesn’t help! How do you do those things?
B: Oh I see what you’re saying. Well, to score runs on offense, you have to somehow get runners on base and then get them to come around to score. To prevent runs on defense, you just have to do the opposite!


You can see where this is going. We keep digging deeper and deeper, slowly but surely figuring out the plethora of factors that go into winning a game, what we can use to measure them, and how to apply our findings to the game itself.

Sometimes the applications of these factors come in the form of scouting. Sometimes they come in the form of statistics. Sometimes they even come in the form of intangibles—those mysterious factors that we can’t measure, the significance of which we can’t really quantify, but which we just know have an effect on winning.

Which is where TWTW comes in. If a hitter or a pitcher or a baserunner or a defender or a coach or a team has this Will To Win, they will win more often! Sure, that makes sense. In fact, on the surface, there’s nothing particularly objectionable about that. If TWTW represents a willingness to do whatever it takes to win the game, to sacrifice your own body and your own stats so that your team wins the game, and if those qualities actually do help the team win the game, then yes, TWTW is an important quality to have.

That’s not my issue. My issue is with the idea that sometimes follows from concepts like TWTW, statements that decry all other statistics or all other methods of evaluating a player because “winning is all that matters.” Of course winning is all that matters! No one is denying that the goal of the game is to win the game. The reason we have statistics and scouting in the first place is in order to figure out how to win!

Is this obvious? Yes. Am I preaching to the choir? Probably. But I think it’s important to state nonetheless. Because when I hear debates like that between Brian Kenny and Hawk Harrelson, or between Kenny and Harold Reynolds almost every day, I realize that the disagreements don’t just stem from a difference in how to evaluate performance. They stem, in part, from a misunderstanding of the end—the purpose, the ultimate goal, of the other side.

TWTW, grit, heart, leadership, hustle, and any other intangible that you can think of, are not the end goal of those who espouse their importance. In the same way, statistics like FIP, BABIP, and WAR do not exist independent of larger goals. Those intangibles and those statistics exist, when it really comes down to it, for the purpose of measuring, of predicting, of evaluating, winning.

Tom Tango recently wrote a blog post about finding a good metric to measure power, and said this:

Forget all the numbers, and forget all the metrics, forget that SLG and ISO even exist, and simply ask the question as to what you need.

That question, for the purposes of most baseball discussion and analysis, is this:

“How does a team win?”

Let's start there, because once we all agree to the question we are trying to answer, we can have a reasonable discussion about how to answer it.


Matt writes for Beyond the Box Score and the Hardball Times. You can contact him via Twitter @MHunterYGY or email.

<< Return to Article And That Happened from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

And That Happened

by Craig Calcaterra
May 08, 2013



Craig writes the HardballTalk blog for NBC Sports.com

<< Return to Article The daily grind: 5-8-13 from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The daily grind: 5-8-13

by Brad Johnson
May 08, 2013

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.


Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): Yesterday, I expanded upon why Jonathan Pettibone has produced good results but isn't trustworthy. Still, a match-up against the Giants is potentially worth exploring. He's opposed by Barry Zito, who also might be worth an add.

A.J. Griffin should be owned in the majority of mixed leagues. He faces the Indians, which is a decent enough match-up to start.

Pitcher (bum): If Coors Field can dodge the rain in the forecast, the combination of David Phelps and Juan Nicasio promises runs.

The Astros will face Joe Blanton.

It's doubtful that Ricky Romero worked out his issues in one month.

Luis Mendoza will see the Orioles. Rain's in the forecast for this one, too.

Hitter (power): The readers let me get away with a silly recommendation for Travis Hafner yesterday, so I'll call myself out. At Coors, there is no DH.

Some regulars are worth a look including Brandon Moss, Seth Smith, Jonny Gomes, and Daniel Nava.

Carlos Pena against Blanton is another great match-up.

Hitter (speed): Will Venable is set to face Ricky Nolasco.

Rajai Davis will likely start, but has a difficult assignment against Matt Moore.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): Bartolo Colon versus Scott Kazmir is an opportunity for two pitchers who may perform well. Kazmir is only for the ballsiest among us, but he's showing his strongest whiff rate since 2008 and is coming off an excellent start. He's likely to regress, but maybe he's that fluky guy who comes back from the dead.

John Lackey has looked solid thus far and might be worth a peek against the Twins. Personally, I'm worried about his high strikeout rate, which I think will decline since he's not generating more whiffs than usual.

Here's another heavily qualified recommendation: Julio Teheran. It's been a bit of a mixed bag with him this season. His velocity is down and he seems to be catching too much of the plate, which could explain an elevated BABIP and HR/FB ratio. On the plus side, he's limiting walks and generating plenty of whiffs, though they aren't translating to a high strikeout rate.

Pitcher (bum): One of these times I'll pick the Braves' feast or famine offense and they'll feast. They see Ryan Vogelsong tomorrow.

Let's see if I can jinx Dillon Gee into performing well. The Pirates have a solid lineup, so it will be a tough assignment for the struggling righty. His velocity is way down, so he is a candidate to be replaced by Ryan Wheeler when the time comes.

The Robinson Canos will face Jeff Francis, who's exploitable against any lineup not named the Marlins at this point. The Canos will be without their best hitter (statistically)—Hafner.

Hitter (power): Big Nate Freiman is likely to be in the lineup against Kazmir.

Break out the Pirates. Particularly, Garrett Jones and Travis Snider.

Jason Vargas is solid enough, but it's still worth giving Chris Carter a spin.

Brandon Belt seems to have a good match-up against Teheran.

Hitter (speed): Davis will see another tough lefty in David Price.

I don't usually reach for Kelly Johnson, but you can give him a try tomorrow against a struggling R.A. Dickey.

Noteworthy news


J.A. Happ was the latest victim of a comeback liner. He's reported to be stable.

Junichi Tazawa is expected to close for the Red Sox. I hope you have heard that already.

Weather watch


Games in Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland, Boston, Pittsburgh, New York, and Colorado could all see some amount of rain and storms. In other words, it's going to be a wet day across the majors.

These are my favorite days to play daily leagues because I can increase my odds of winning simply by selecting players in dry games.


Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

<< Return to Article Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 6, Vol. II from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 6, Vol. II

by Jack Weiland
May 08, 2013

Waiver wire pals, there is something I need to confess. Okay? Yes? Good. Here I go.

When it comes to the Red Sox closers, whom I feature here (seemingly) every week, because the situation changes (seemingly) every minute, I haven't got a clue. Zero clues to be had by this guy.

Last week as soon as I rejoiced that Andrew Bailey had been officially named the Red Sox closer, he missed a save opportunity with bicep soreness that ultimately landed him on the disabled list. Then replacement Joel Hanrahan, who himself had been replaced by Bailey but regained the closer role in Bailey's absence, landed back on the disabled list for the second time this season. So now it's ... you know what? Nope. Not going to do it. I give up. White flag, being waved, by yours truly.

Feels good to get this off my chest.

A recap of other recent players we've featured, now with less frustration!

Scott Feldman spun another gem Tuesday night, this time against the Rangers. I'd recommend him more strongly if I had any clue (gee, that sounds familiar) what the Cubs were going to do upon the return of Matt Garza, who made his second rehab start for the club and according to ESPN's Jesse Rogers is as few as 10 days away from returning. The team has five spots for Jeff Samardzija (not going anywhere), Edwin Jackson (probably not going anywhere), Matt Garza (when he returns), Carlos Villanueva (he of the 2.85 ERA), Travis Wood (2.50 ERA, and the only lefty in the rotation), and Feldman (lights out lately). Scott Baker will also return at some point (maybe), so the Cubs are looking at two men out here. Anyone who says they know what the Cubs will do with the rotation when Garza returns is Theo Epstein. Beyond that, they are full of bologna. Tread carefully here.

(Did I say less frustration? I don't recall saying that. That doesn't sound like something I would say.)

Hey, at least Kevin Slowey, Eric Stults, and Roberto Hernandez remain solid additions for owners in need of starting pitching.

Justin Ruggiano, a player Karl targeted earlier this year, has been hot of late as well.

Today let's look at a few other outfielders you may be thinking of adding.

Marcell Ozuna | Miami Marlins | OF | ESPN: 8.7 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 21 percent; CBS: 28 percent
YTD: .404/.448/.667 in 29 plate appearances
ZiPS Updated Projection: .255/.303/.434 in 453 plate appearances


In lieu of Mike Giancarlo Stanton, the Marlins turned their lonely eyes to Marcell Ozuna, who made his debut last week at the tender age of 22, having played only 10 games at Double-A ball or higher. He's made quite an impression since, as his .476 wOBA can attest. Fantasy league owners have noticed as well, as his ownership rate at CBS jumped from two percent to 28 in one week.

I trotted over to the prospects desk here at THT Global Enterprises (not our real name, and "ambled" would be a more appropriate verb) to get in-house prospect guru Jeff Moore's take on the callup. His full thoughts can be found on his site here, but this is what he told me fantasy owners can expect from Ozuna this season:

In general, he can contribute some power, but it will come at the cost of batting average, and if it's a points league where strikeouts have a negative value, he won't even be worth the home runs. He's absolutely not ready, needed at least another full season in the minors. He's extremely talented but needed a lot more time to figure out how to use it.

I imagine he's only going to be there while Stanton is out, unless he plays well. The Marlins are desperate for power, so if he runs into a few home runs and keeps his batting average above .200, they could get greedy and try to pair him with Stanton. Either way, the league will figure him out and he's going to strike out a ton—enough that it won't let his power play in the majors, at least not yet.


Recommendation: Worth a flier in NL-only leagues, but Ozuna probably won't keep up his Bondsian level of production, and will probably struggle more than he's worth in mixed leagues. This is not the call-up of Wil Myers, who has seemingly been ready to give the majors a shot for two seasons now.

David DeJesus | Chicago Cubs | OF | ESPN: 7.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 5 percent; CBS: 18 percent
YTD: .286/.358/.561 in 109 plate appearances
ZiPS Updated Projection: .269/.347/.440 in 521 plate appearances


Quick, who leads major league outfielders in ISO? Justin Upton? Okay. Let's make this a little tougher. Who is currently 13th?

Really, you guessed David DeJesus? Is it because his name appears in bold five lines above this? I need to get better at this stuff.

Anyway, yeah, David DeJesus is tearing the cover off the ball right now, and nobody seems to care. So, is it real? Should you rush out and add him? The answer is a little complicated.

First and foremost: no, the power is not real. The last time DeJesus had this kind of power was during a 12-game (small sample) stint in 2003, his first taste of major league baseball. Since then he's played 1,173 games, and his careeer ISO is .140, with a high of .152 and a low of .112. He's had consistently decent power, but he's never been a big bopper.

Digging further into his 2013 numbers, DeJesus' current HR/FB rate of 14.3 percent is more than double his career average of 6.8 percent. He's unlikely to sustain that level all season, and accordingly his power will drop as well.

But is he worth owning otherwise? If your league rewards walks (or on-base) and you could use a boost in runs, then DeJesus can help.

Recommendation: He can help, but not in the ways it might seem by taking a quick glance down the list of NL OPS leaders.

Matt Joyce | Tampa Bay Rays | OF | ESPN: 24.7 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 8 percent; CBS: 31 percent
YTD: .212/.237/.435 in 94 plate appearances
ZiPS Updated Projection: .237/.329/.436 in 493 plate appearances


It's easy to forget about Matt Joyce, what with all of the hubbub around Wil Myers and all. His .212 batting average doesn't help him stand out in a positive way, either.

Aside from that, though, there's a capable player buried in here, and one who is currently undervalued by fantasy leagues, especially those with Yahoo! and CBS. It's interesting that his ownership rates in ESPN leagues are relatively high, especially considering ESPN leagues are generally the shallowest, and by a wide margin.

Assuming Joyce can bring his line drive rate up from his absurdly low 9.5 percent, his BABIP of .203 should also rise, and with it his batting average. This will make his triple slash line look much more attractive. He'll never challenge for the Triple Crown, but he can provide power and plenty of walks.

Recommendation:Worth adding for outfield help in mixed leagues.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

<< Return to Article What nobody is talking about from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

What nobody is talking about

by Greg Simons
May 08, 2013



Greg Simons finally, sadly has conceded that he won't have an MLB playing career. However, in his dreams, he's still the second coming of Ozzie Smith. Please don't wake him up, though you can e-mail him at gregbsimons AT yahoo DOT com.

<< Return to Article Currently historic: A truly rare achievement from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Currently historic: A truly rare achievement

by Jason Linden
May 08, 2013

Welcome back. We've got about 20 percent of the season under our belts now, and some interesting things are starting to happen. Let's take a look.

So here's something new: This year, Bartolo Colon has pitched 37.1 innings. Guess how many batters he's walked?

One.

Right now, he is averaging 0.2 walks per nine innings. To find someone else in that league, you have to go back to George Zettlein who once walked six in 234 innings. He also struck out 10 that year. It was 1876. Times were different.

I don't know if Bartolo Colon is going to set a modern record for the infrequency with which he offers free passes. I do know he has been an excellent control pitcher for a long time and I'm going to pay attention.

By the way, in 1904, Cy Young finished the season with 0.687 walks per nine innings. That's the modern record. If Colon throws exactly 162 innings this season, he can walk 11 more batters and still beat that number. Stay tuned.

----

In 2007, Kenny Lofton played his final major league game. Since that time, there have been no active major leaguers with 600 stolen bases. Indeed, Lofton didn't reach that number until that final season. But now, the club has a new member.

This week, Juan Pierre stole base number 600 (and 601, 602, and 603). Pierre has never been a great player, but he has often been a solid one and he has always been able to run. He has fewer years in the majors than all but two of the men ahead of him on the list (dead-ball player Billy Hamilton had 14, the same as Pierre now has, and Vince Coleman had 13). If teams keep giving him the chance to play every day, he could move quite a bit higher on the list.

When Pierre plays, he still seems to be a good bet for 30 or more steals a season. He's off to a banner start this year, with 12 already. If he gets 20 more before the end of the season, he'll pass Kenny Lofton for 15th. Another season of 30 steals on top of that gets him to only 14th. One more and he's 12th.

To enter the top 10, Pierre would need 120 more steals than he has right now. That would tie him with Honus Wagner at 723. That seems like a tall task to me, but it's certainly possible. I hope Pierre continues to be good enough to convince teams to play him every day. We'll keep him on the list here as he continues his climb up the charts and his pursuit of 200 times being caught stealing.

----

Time for week two of strikeout tracking. Remember, we're tracking only players whose career numbers seem to indicate a reasonable chance of hitting 200 strikeouts.

Chris Carter, 51 Ks, 264 K pace: Carter's pace has slowed just slightly. Remarkably, it would take only a good game or two for him to be a league-average hitter.

Rickie Weeks 37 Ks, 199 K pace: Down a bit here. Still basically a 200 K pace, though.

Adam Dunn, 39 Ks, 216 K pace: Dunn turned it up a bit this week. His hitting has been awful so far this year, though. I wonder if he might be done (yes, or Dunn. Fine, fine, I made the joke, are you happy now?)

Will Middlebrooks, 38 Ks, 197 K pace: Down a bit. There was some sentiment in the comments last week that Middlebrooks is going to get only so many chances. I'll try to keep a close eye on him.

Pedro Alvarez, 35 Ks, 193 Ks pace: Exactly the same pace he was on last week.

Rick Ankiel, 35 Ks, 177 K pace: Ankiel is probably not going to K 200 times, he's just striking out so much while playing in only about 80 percent of his teams games that I have to track him. And in some of those games he's pinch-hitting. It's amazing.

----

Joey Votto has been walking a bit less lately (and is currently riding a nine-game hitting streak) and is now on pace for just 147 walks. That's still worth tracking as a decent week will put him back over the 150 walk pace.

----

The Astros actually upped their strikeout pace last week and are now averaging more than 10 per game. Their current pace would have them finish with 1,635. They really might make the current record of 1,387 look trivial as their current pace would have them pass it with almost a month to go in the season.

----

Now's it's time for our weekly list...

Doubles:
Todd Helton (573) is back from the DL, so the one double he needs to enter the top 20 should be forthcoming reasonably soon.

Adrian Beltre had a double this week and needs 31 more to reach 500.

Home runs:
Albert Pujols continues his march to 500. He now needs only 20, and 33 more will get him into the top 20.

Prince Fielder hit two homers this week and needs 32 to reach 300.

Extra-base hits:
Todd Helton still needs 36 extra base hits to get to 1,000. We'll see.

Runs batted in:
Albert Pujols now needs 47 to reach 1,500.

Stolen bases:
Michael Bourn (277) is on the DL, but there are at least rumors of a rehab assignment soon. We'll keep him around.

Showing up:
Mariano Rivera is now in a tie with Dan Plesac for the sixth most appearances ever (1,064). Hoyt Wilhelm (1,070) and Dennis Eckersley (1,071) are next.

Andy Pettitte (497 starts), CC Sabathia (390), and Bartolo Colon (381) keep on keepin' on. Barry Zito started his 400th last week, and Roy Halladay (384) is hurt. (I think we all saw that coming, didn't we?)

Wins:
Tim Hudson, who we've already talked about at some length, got win number 200 before last week's article was even up. It will be interesting to see if he can stick around long enough to get to 250. He might have an interesting Hall of Fame case if he does. Sabathia (195) didn't win any this week. He's try again next week.

Saves:
Jonathan Papelbon (262) needs 38 to get to 300.

Strikeouts:
Ryan Dempster struck out only four last time out and needs 35 to reach 2000.

Walks:
Pettitte needs only six to reach 1000.

Team Accomplishments:
Pittsburgh had a rough week and needs 22 wins to make it to 10,000.

Thanks for reading. As always, stats are through Monday's games. Tell me if I'm missing anything.

Jason has too many irons in the fire. He fancies himself a fiction writer and also writes about the Reds at Redleg Nation, books at Elephants for Bookends, and everything else at The Winesburg Eagle. Email him at winesburgeagle *at* gmail or follow him on Twitter @jasonlinden

<< Return to Article Craig Anderson’s greatest day from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Craig Anderson’s greatest day

by Frank Jackson
May 08, 2013

Thanks to the 162-game schedule, if a ballplayer sticks with a team all season, he will probably have at least one good day to remember. In fact, the less distinguished the career, a day that stands out will be much more obvious than it would be in a more distinguished career. I offer the example of pitcher Craig Anderson.

Anderson was the first Lehigh University alum (Class of 1960) to play in the major leagues. He still holds two school records for strikeouts (18 in one game, 289 in one season). Before the 1960 season, the Cardinals signed him to a three-year guaranteed contract and sent him off to Double-A Tulsa.

As a 22-year-old rookie with the Cardinals in 1961, he compiled a 4-3 record with a 3.26 ERA in 38.2 innings. I think most teams would be satisfied with such a debut. They would likely include such a young pitcher in their plans for the following season. But 1962 was an expansion year and not everyone could be protected.

So on Oct. 10, 1961, four days before his wedding, Craig Anderson was picked in the eighth round (for $75,000) of the expansion draft by the New York Mets. The Cardinals were a team on the rise with a lot of young talent and Anderson was on the cusp.

One of the advantages of expansion is it provides opportunities for players who might otherwise get lost in the shuffle. We’ll never know how much opportunity he would have had with the Cardinals, but he certainly was given plenty of opportunities (131.1 innings) with the Mets in 1962. Whether he failed the Mets or the Mets failed him is debatable. Actually, there was enough blame to go around.

Somehow Anderson managed to avoid the loss column during the Mets’ nine-game losing streak at the beginning of the season. But after the Mets’ first win (a 9-1 complete game victory by Jay Hook at Pittsburgh on April 23), Anderson got his first loss of the season. In classic Mets fashion, the loss was a singular achievement. Anderson was taken out after the first inning with the Mets behind 4-0. The Mets had plenty of opportunities to get him off the hook, however. Sammy Ellis, the Reds’ starting pitcher, walked 11 men in five innings, but the Mets could score no more than three runs.

Anderson’s first victory was just around the corner, however. On May 6, 1962, he pitched four shutout innings in relief at Connie Mack Stadium, earning the win in a 7-5, 12-inning victory over the Phillies.

The Mets were well on their way to making their inaugural season a monument to underachievement. Anderson’s first month, however, was relatively uneventful. He had a 1-1 record and the Mets were 5-17 as of the dawn of May 12.

That day the Mets were to host the Milwaukee Braves in a double-header. The Braves were no longer the National League juggernaut of the late 1950s, but compared to the Mets, they were world-beaters. A sweep by the Braves would have surprised no one. A split would have been a good day for the Mets. The least likely outcome was a sweep by the Mets. Yet that is what happened. And how it happened was even more amazing.

In the first game, Anderson entered in the eighth inning with the Mets behind 2-1. In the bottom of the ninth, Hobie Landrith launched a two-run pinch-hit homer, giving the Mets their first-ever walk-off win. How strange to look at the box score and see Craig Anderson with the (W) and Hall of Fame left-hander Warren Spahn with the (L). You have to wonder what was going through Spahn’s mind as he watched the left-handed hitting Landrith trot around the bases. Spahn led the league with 22 complete games in 1962, but this was one he would have gladly done without.

In the second game, Anderson came into the game in the ninth inning of a 7-7 tie. He came on in relief of Vinegar Bend Mizell, who was making his first appearance for the Mets after being acquired from the Pirates. Surely, Anderson did not want to see extra innings on top of the 18 already played. He kept the Braves from scoring, but could the Mets pull out another victory in the bottom of the ninth?

Could and did. It was their second walk-off victory of the day—and again it came on a home run. This time the hero was Gil Hodges, who had entered the game earlier after Marv Throneberry had been removed for a pinch-runner. Again, Anderson got the victory.

Imagine the euphoria felt by the 19,748 on hand at the Polo Grounds. Inexplicably, the Mets won three double-headers in 1962, including another against the Braves in Milwaukee just eight days later. Braves manager Birdie Tebbetts must have been beside himself.

For the record, the other double-header victory was over the defending NL Champion Reds on Aug. 4 at the Polo Grounds. Reds’ manager Fred Hutchinson, renowned for his temper tantrums, must have been a sight to behold.

But those double-header sweeps could not match the May 12 twin victory for sheer drama. Arguably, that double-header victory was the high point of the Mets’ season. As it turned out, the same was true of Craig Anderson’s career. The difference is that as bad as the Mets were the rest of the season, they did win a few more games. The same could not be said for Craig Anderson.

At the close of business on May 12, Anderson’s record was 3-1. He could not have guessed that at the end of the season he could count his 1962 victories on one hand... even if that hand belonged to Three-Finger Brown. Yet he would need all his fingers and most of his toes to count his losses.

After his red-letter day on May 12, Anderson proceeded to lose 12 in a row. One more and he would tie Dutch McCall, the last hurler to lose 13 in a row, who did so in 1948.

That benchmark was on the line on Aug. 21 when the Mets themselves were riding a 12-game losing streak. Playing back-to-back doubleheaders versus the Pirates at the Polo Grounds, the Mets chose Anderson to go to the mound in the first game of Aug. 21. In classic Mets fashion, they botched it, but Anderson dodged the bullet. Pitching into the ninth inning with a 6-4 lead, Anderson got the first out. After an infield hit and a walk, Roger Craig was summoned from the bullpen. He walked Roberto Clemente, laoding the bases, and up came pinch-hitter Jim Marshall.

Jim Marshall was not the first man in baseball history who could call himself a former Met, but he was one of the first. The first man to be accorded this honor depends on how you define a former Met. For example, pitcher Billy Loes, who was acquired from the Giants on Oct. 16, 1961, was returned to them on March 2, 1962. He never played for the Mets, but Bobby Gene Smith did, and he was traded to the Cubs on April 26. So a case could be made for him.

For his part, Marshall had spent the first month of the season with the Mets and responded with a .344 average (11 for 32 and three home runs). This made him attractive to the Pirates, who acquired him in early May in exchange for Mizell. (This was truly one of those trades that failed miserably for both teams, as Mizell was released by the Mets three months later, while Marshall hit .220 in 100-at bats for the Pirates; neither played major league ball again.)

In his pinch-hit appearance, Marshall grounded to shortstop Felix Mantilla, who had a number of options. Ideally, he could get two by throwing home and then the catcher throwing to first after the force; another possibility would have been a 6-4-3 double-play. A force play at home or second would have been a decent consolation prize. Inexplicably, Mantilla threw to first—wildly. The Mets got no outs on the play, all three runners scored, and the Pirates added one more for good measure. The Mets failed to score in the bottom of the ninth, so the final score remained Pirates 8, Mets 6.

The baseball gods, who could have decreed that both Anderson and the Mets would lose their 13th straight game simultaneously, gave the former a reprieve. Instead, they decided that it was more important for Roger Craig to lose his 20th game of the season (he went on to lose four more). Anderson got a no-decision, but his streak was still intact.

No sense in delaying the inevitable too long, however. So on Aug. 26, Anderson and the Mets rose to the occasion. When Anderson came out of the game after 5.1 innings, he was behind 11-0, thanks to eight unearned runs.

When the 1962 season was history, Anderson’s losing streak was at 16. He finished up with a 3-17 record and a 5.35 ERA. Control was a big problem, as he walked 63 batters in 131.1 innings. His teammates did their part: 30 of the 108 runs scored against Anderson were unearned. He did lead the team with four saves, however. Of course, leading the 1962 Mets in saves is a textbook example of damning with faint praise.

One can imagine how glad Anderson must have been to put aside 1962 and get started in 1963. Little did he know his time in the majors was growing short. In 1963 and 1964, Anderson spent most of his time (155 innings each season) at Triple-A Buffalo.

In 1963, he was 0-2 with an ERA of 8.68 in just 9.1 innings with the Mets. He was around long enough, however, to go down in history as the last pitcher to lose a game at the Polo Grounds. He was the starting and losing pitcher in a 5-1 loss to the Phillies. Again, his teammates helped him out. Of the three runs scored against him, none was earned. A mere 1,752 were on hand to close out the Mets’ two-year tenure at the Polo Grounds.

In 1964, hampered by a broken hand suffered in spring training, Anderson was 0-1 with a 5.54 ERA in 13 innings. And that was the end of his major league career. As luck would have it, Anderson’s losing streak ended at 19—not with a victory but by the end of his tenure in the majors. He lingered in the minors for two more seasons. One suspects that May 12, 1962 often wafted through his mind during those remaining seasons.

Anderson, however, did not give up on baseball—far from it. He served as a pitching coach, among other positions, at his alma mater for 34 years. He was enshrined in the Lehigh Athletics Hall of Fame and retired to Florida in 2001.

Anderson likely paid close attention to Anthony Young’s career with the Mets. Young lost 27 straight games for the Mets covering 1992 and 1993. He really didn’t pitch that badly. His 4.17 ERA in 1992 isn’t so hot, but it isn’t deserving of a 2-14 record. His 3.77 ERA in 1993 should not have resulted in a 1-16 record, but against all odds, it did. Like their 1962 counterparts, the Mets were in the doldrums in those years.

Anderson had been there. Surely, he could have offered Young some advice. Or could he? After all, what can you say in such a situation? Don’t worry, kid, things will turn around.

They didn’t for Anderson.

Frank Jackson has published previous baseball articles in National Pastime and Elysian Fields Quarterly. He was weaned on baseball at Connie Mack Stadium.

<< Return to Article 40th anniversary: Stargell hits one out of Dodger Stadium from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

40th anniversary: Stargell hits one out of Dodger Stadium

by Chris Jaffe
May 08, 2013



History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. Oh, and now he's on twitter.

<< Return to Article BOB:  Stadium updates from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

BOB:  Stadium updates

by Brian Borawski
May 08, 2013

Wrigley Field stadium posturing

Last week I talked about how the city of Chicago and the Chicago Cubs came to an agreement over Wrigley Field stadium renovations as well as the uphill battle both sides face in getting those renovations in place (while keeping everyone happy). Then, Cubs owner Tom Ricketts came out firing and said that if the renovations weren’t approved, the Cubs might have to move. He later backed away from the threats but it looks like the usual stadium posturing is out in full force in Chicago—it happens in just about every other city that goes through this.

As usual, Field of Schemes is all over this one. If the article doesn’t address it directly, it had links to why the Cubs would never move as well as what Ricketts originally said. The article says that while the Cubs aren’t looking for direct public money, they are looking for city subsidies that are just as, if not more, valuable in the long run.

The Cubs are looking to install a new video board as well as add quite a bit of outside signage (to the tune of 35,000 feet). Residents are worried about a “Times Square effect.”

Palm Beach looks to nab two spring training teams

In the past I’ve talked about the “spring training wars” between Arizona and Florida, with Arizona getting the better of it over the last decade. We haven’t seen any teams jump from the Grapefruit League to the Cactus League in a couple of years, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t movement. Florida plans on helping out the area by paying for a two-team complex in Palm Beach County to lock in a couple of teams for the long haul.

The new complex would put two teams just four miles away from the spring training home of the St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins in Jupiter’s Roger Dean Stadium. The two teams that appear to be most likely to occupy the new complex are the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros, because both have agreements that expire in the next couple of years.

Athletics lease extension hits tax revenue snag

It looked like it was a forgone conclusion that the Oakland Athletics and the Oakland Alameda County Coliseum Authority would agree to a lease extension that would give the Athletics a home for the next few years while they hash out their stadium situation. Even that now has hit a snag as it appears that the Athletics may have been short-changing the county.

It all comes down to parking revenue. The team collects a set amount for every car that parks in its lot each game, then is supposed to pay a portion of that back in taxes. The problem is, the A's are supposedly not paying back the taxes and between that and the rent on the extension, we now have a stalemate. The Coliseum says that the team owes $7 million to the authority.

Spring training attendance sets records

But both the Cactus League and Grapefruit League had solid showings at the box office this spring. More than 1.6 million fans bought tickets to spring training games in the Grapefruit League, with seven venues setting attendance records. For the second straight season, eight teams topped the 100,000 mark. The Boston Red Sox edged the New York Yankees in spring training attendance with 164,840 tickets sold.

In Arizona, the Cactus League set an overall attendance record with 1.68 million tickets sold. Of the 15 Cactus League teams, 14 showed an uptick in attendance with only the Colorado Rockies showing a small dip from the year before. The Cactus League Association estimated that the solid attendance brought $360 million to the local economy.

Brian Borawski is a member of SABR's Business of Baseball Committee and writes about the Detroit Tigers at his own website, TigerBlog. He welcomes comments, questions and suggestions via e-mail.

<< Return to Article And That Happened from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

And That Happened

by Craig Calcaterra
May 07, 2013



Craig writes the HardballTalk blog for NBC Sports.com

<< Return to Article The daily grind: 5-7-13 from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The daily grind: 5-7-13

by Brad Johnson
May 07, 2013

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.


Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): There are a few good arms for today, but none of them have a particularly friendly match-up.

Justin Grimm is making his way onto my teams but he has a tough assignment in the Brewers.

Zach McAllister is a frequent denizen of the Grind, but a game against the A's is no easy task.

J.A. Happ sees the worst lineup of the bunch when he faces the Rays, but he's also the least talented of this trio.

Pitcher (bum): If the Pirates game isn't interrupted, I'll predict continuing struggles for Aaron Harang. I do think he'll settle down eventually, but he may need a few more starts.

I'll take the Red Sox over lefty Scott Diamond.

Hitter (power): Brandon Belt has warmed up recently. Kyle Kendrick is still expected to be lefty prone, although AT&T Park is not the best place to bet on home runs.

Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava will face the above-mentioned Diamond.

C.J. Wilson isn't looking like much more than a decent arm these days. Chris Carter could benefit.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra is set to face Josh Beckett.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): Jonathan Pettibone has gotten good results thus far, but I wouldn't necessarily trust that. In particular, a strikeout rate around seven K/9 seems fluky when combined with a 4.4 percent whiff rate. Something has to give there. He's also walking only about one batter per nine innings, which doesn't jibe with his minor league performances. In short, expect fewer strikeouts, more walks, and an overall mediocre line.

Barry Zito opposes Pettibone. I was a bit surprised to find him 47 percent owned. The Phillies aren't a very offensive-minded club, which is the only reason I mention Zito.

A.J. Griffin is 36 percent owned and too good to be available on waivers. Do note that he's an extreme fly-ball pitcher, so you might want to stay away from bandboxes.

Felix Doubront has a pleasant match-up against the Twins. His 5.67 ERA belies a 2.87 FIP.

Pitcher (bum): Last week I recommended in favor of David Phelps. This week, I recommend against. He pitches in Coors tomorrow and is opposed by another exploitable pitcher, Juan Nicasio.

I think the Astros will like facing Joe Blanton.

Ricky Romero is back, but it's too soon to say if he's any better.

I'll draw the line at Luis Mendoza against the Orioles, but I could name more exploitable pitchers.

Hitter (power): Justin Masterson still has slight lefty problems, so this is a good day to go with Seth Smith and Brandon Moss route.

Another lefty and another start for Gomes and Nava.

Is Carlos Pena still around? Because Blanton is a juicy match-up for him.

Travis Hafner is 40 percent owned, but where he is available, a start against Nicasio in Coors seems quite enjoyable.

Hitter (speed): Will Venable will see Ricky Nolasco.

Lefty Matt Moore means Rajai Davis will probably start. Unfortunately, the match-up is difficult.

Weather watch


Storms are expected to interrupt several east coast games, affecting the Tigers, Nationals, Mariners, Pirates, Royals, and Orioles. The Braves and Reds may see a touch of the same storm system.


Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

<< Return to Article Josh Donaldson and the myth of the ‘New Moneyball’ from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Josh Donaldson and the myth of the ‘New Moneyball’

by Pat Andriola
May 07, 2013



Pat Andriola is a JD/MBA student at NYU. He likes the Mets a lot. You can contact him at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

<< Return to Article Fun with minor league leader boards from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Fun with minor league leader boards

by Jeff Moore
May 07, 2013

It's still too early in the baseball season to jump to any conclusions, but with a month in the books, which in the minor leagues constitutes around one-fifth of the season, we have enough of a 2013 sample size to begin to take some baby steps in that direction. A month isn't long enough to allow us to make any determinations about what a player can and can't do, but we can see some trends beginning to take shape within the numbers.

For example, we're getting to the point were I feel comfortable saying that Mike O'Neill can help a major league team, at the worst as a fourth outfielder, and potentially as a leadoff hitter/secret weapon. O'Neill, a 25-year-old outfielder, is leading off for Double-A Springfield of the Texas League, and is doing his best to enter the prospect discussion before he gets too old for consideration.

O'Neill appeared on our radar last season when he posted a .458 on-base percentage, playing primarily in the Florida State League and finishing with a cameo in the Texas League—this despite offering virtually nothing in the way of power to make pitchers avoid him on purpose. The caveats for O'Neill were his lack of true tools (because plate discipline isn't considered a tool, although it should be) and having been old for his level.

But this season, O'Neill has proved that his 2012 season wasn't a fluke. A month into the season, he has increased his on-base ability even more while hitting for even less power, posting a Texas League-leading 22.8 percent walk rate despite an .045 ISO. He's on pace for a 100-plus walk season. Brett Butler in 1991 is the only player in the expansion era to draw more than 100 walks in a major league season while posting an ISO under .050, yet that's the type of player O'Neill looks like he could become. He may not be able to sustain his extreme plate discipline all season, but his progression as a follow-up to last year indicates that what he's doing is legitimate. If he continues to get on base, O'Neill could be a name that other teams inquire about at the trade deadline if the Cardinals are looking to add to their major league roster.

O'Neill could be moving on from the Texas League soon, but you don't have to be old for your league to earn a promotion. Byron Buxton is torching the Midwest League enough, despite being one of its youngest players, that the Minnesota Twins may be forced to promote him at midseason.

It's difficult to find a category in which Buxton isn't among the Midwest League leaders. Walk rate? He's eighth, at 18.4 percent. Isolated slugging? He's second, at .286. wOBA? He's first, at .510. Prefer more traditional stats? That's fine. Buxton is second in batting average at .378, first in on-base percentage at .492, and first in slugging percentage at .663.

It would be premature to promote Buxton yet no matter how well he's done, because it would be based solely on one month of production. The Twins clearly believed he belonged in Low-A ball, and one month shouldn't change that. But three months? That may be a different story.

Making snap judgments based on one month of numbers can be frightening. This is especially true for pitchers, who may have had a run of bad luck in the early going.

Dodgers pitching prospect Garrett Gould is one of those. No one in the California League has a bigger discrepancy between his actual era (8.06) and his FIP (3.71) thanks to having the second-highest BABIP against and strand rate in the league. At some point, a pitcher has to make some good luck happen for himself by getting that final out of the inning, but Gould's luck is sure to get at least a little better this season.

Cincinnati Reds 2011 first-rounder Robert Stephenson is having a similar issue in his first full season in the Midwest League, leading the league in the same discrepancy as Gould. Stephenson has a 5.79 ERA but a 2.91 FIP, largely due to a .408 BABIP against. There's no reason a pitcher with a 2.92 K/BB rate should have an ERA close to six other than a string of bad luck.

But the Reds aren't planning on sending Stephenson anywhere, nor should they, or any of these other teams. We can't make any reasonable determinations based on one month of the season, but we are getting to the point where the numbers mean more. One month of a trend doesn't make a fact, but two or three months makes it that much more likely that the trend will continue, and these trends are worth keeping an eye on.

Jeff Moore is the creator of MLBProspectWatch.com, your one-stop site for all the information you need about minor league prospects. He can be reached via e-mail at mlbprospectwatch AT gmail DOT com and can be followed on Twitter at @MLBPW

<< Return to Article 90th anniversary: Casey Stengel goes bonkers from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

90th anniversary: Casey Stengel goes bonkers

by Chris Jaffe
May 07, 2013



History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. Oh, and now he's on twitter.

<< Return to Article THT Awards from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

THT Awards

by John Barten
May 07, 2013

Welcome to the awards.

All stats are for Monday, April 29 through Sunday, May 5. Please see the week one column for category explanations.

This week’s proof that assigning wins and losses to a pitcher is an archaic practice that must stop

Good luck division

The A’s started Dan Straily on Monday. He was smacked around for six runs in four and two thirds. Oakland’s lineup came back to even the game in the ninth inning, taking Straily off the hook. Then the teams played 10 more innings.

Jon Lester gave up six runs in six frames on six hits and two walks. He was in position for the win at one point as David Ortiz and friends scored three runs in the seventh to put the Red Sox up by one. But Junichi Tazawa blew the save and Lester wound up with a really ugly no decision instead of an ugly, undeserved win.

Matt Magill failed to make it out of the second inning, allowing five runs. He walked four batters and was smacked around for six hits despite facing only 14 batters. Ryan Vogelsong was the opposing starter. He allowed seven runs of his own. Neither starter took the loss.

James McDonald and Marco Estrada combined to allow 12 runs in 10 innings of work on 15 hits and six walks, striking out nine. Each bullpen took its turn blowing the lead and neither starter walked away with the loss.

A Jake McGee implosion took Luis Mendoza off the hook after the Royals starter was peppered with six runs in four innings. Mendoza allowed home runs to Matt Joyce, Ben Zobrist and Luke Scott.

Dillon Gee posted a game score of 32 and got the win. Gee allowed four runs in five innings to Miami on nine hits and two walks, striking out only one. His counterpart, Wade LeBlanc avoided the loss as well despite the fact that he was touched up for four runs in five and two-thirds.

Tim Lincecum continued his struggles, getting shelled for five runs in five innings. No decision as David Hernandez blew the lead for the Snakes.

Pedro Hernandez and Justin Masterson combined to throw 12 innings, allowing 10 runs on 16 hits and six walks, striking out seven. Neither took the loss.

Adam Wainwright allowed five runs in five and a third on 11 hits, striking out five. A blown save by Tom Gorzelanny ensured that Wainwright would not receive the loss.

Bad luck division

Jeremy Hefner had thrown eight scoreless innings for the Mets, allowing only four hits, walking none, striking out eight. When the first two Marlins he faced reached base in the ninth inning, he was lifted for Brandon Lyon, who allowed both runners to score, ending the game. Lyon did not retire a batter. Hefner took the loss despite a 74 game score. On the other side in that game, Kevin Slowey put up eight innings of his own, allowing one run on four hits and no walks, striking out eight. He took the no-decision.

Trevor Cahill gave the Diamondbacks eight innings of work, allowing one run on four hits and one walk, striking out five. J.J. Putz blew the save in the ninth inning and Cahill took the no-decision.

Hiram Burgos went seven frames, allowing two runs to the Pirates on four hits and a walk, striking out six. John Axford blew the save.

Paul Maholm gave the Braves a good start, going eight innings, yielding two runs. He took the loss as Jordan Zimmerman and Rafael Soriano shut out Atlanta.

It should be acknowledged that Bud Norris held the Tigers to two runs in seven frames only to watch Jose Veras blow the lead in the ninth with an Alex Avila two-run homer.

Clayton Kershaw failed to receive the win despite providing the Dodgers with seven innings of work allowing one run. The Dodgers were held to one run in the game by the Giants and Kershaw was not among the pitchers of record.

Vulture Award

In the Jon Lester start above, Steve Delabar allowed a three-run double, blowing the lead for Toronto. Two of the runs were charged to Aaron Loup. An Edwin Encarnacion two-run home run handed Delabar the victory.

Wes Littleton Award

With a two-run lead, two out, and none on in the bottom of the ninth, Grant Balfour was called on to retire Eduardo Nunez. This is the same Eduardo Nunez who currently sports an 83 OPS+ in 576 career plate appearances.

Jonathan Papelbon’s fifth save of the year came with a three-run lead. He retired Rob Brantly, Adeiny Hechavarria and pinch-hitter Chris Coghlan.

Please hold the applause

Shawn Camp faced four batters in the seventh inning. Those four plate appearances went single, single, ground out, walk. At that point, Camp was replaced with James Russell, who helped the Cubs escape from this bases-loaded, one-out situation without yielding a run. Russell and Camp were each credited with a hold despite the fact that Russell was a magician and Camp was wretched.

Any sufficiently advanced defense is indistinguishable from pitching

Bronson Arroyo failed to strike out any of the 27 Cardinals batters he faced. Despite this, he allowed only five hits on balls in play and the only two runs he allowed were on a two-run home run by Matt Holliday.

Madison Bumgarner struck out two Diamondbacks out of the 24 he faced. With 21 balls in play, only three found their way safely to pasture and Bumgarner made it through his seven innings with no runs allowed.

Dylan Axelrod and Jeremy Guthrie combined to allow only 12 hits and two runs despite striking out only three of the 67 batters they faced. Just let that wash over you for a second. There were three strikeouts in the game and 12 hits combined between the two teams. The xFIPs for the two starters were 7.01 and 4.60 in the game.

Joe Carter Award

Brandon Belt popped two home runs and drove in six runs. He was a few singles shy of a good week. Instead, he posted a line of .176/.263/.529.

Edwin Encarnacion went .208/.240/.458 while driving in five runs.

Victor Martinez also plated five. He went .258/.258/.419.

Sanchez Award

Jhonny Peralta gave the Tigers eight hits in 27 PA. Unfortunately, only two of the eight went for extra bases, he drew only one walk, and was caught on his only stolen base attempt. .308/.321/.385.

Howie Kendrick went .303/.303/.394 in 33 PA.

Austin Jackson posted a .286/.310/.357 line in 29 PA.

Denard Span collected five singles and two doubles in 26 PA and that’s about it as he went .280/.308/.360.

Brandon Inge is back in the majors and he hit .278/.278/.333 in 18 PA for the Pirates this week.

Harmon Killebrew Award

Josh Willingham posted a very unconventional line for the Twins at .176/.391/.412 in 23 PA. He reached base by way of base on balls six times and via hit three times.

Michael Morse rapped out only five hits for the Mariners but two of the five were home runs and he also chipped in by drawing four walks in 25 PA for a .238/.360/.524 line.

Ryan Howard posted a .222/.333/.667 line in 21 PA.

Matt Joyce gave the Rays a line that was similar to Howard’s for the Phillies, but with two fewer doubles. He went .222/.333/.556 in 21 PA.

Nelson Cruz went .200/.360/.500 in 25 PA. Half of his four hits were home runs.

Steve Balboni Award

A.J. Pierzynski fanned seven times in 17 PA and as a result went .118/.167/.118.

Jay Bruce’s strikeout rate this year has jumped from a career rate (2008-2012) of 23.4 percent to 31.9 percent. The only thing that has kept his batting line above water this season is a jump in BABIP from .290 before this season to .379 in 2013. This week he struck out 11 times in 27 PA and posted a .222/.222/.370 line.

The Josh Hamilton strugglefest continued unabated this week: The Halos outfielder went .172/.219/.207 and whiffed nine times in 31 PA.

Jason Castro is this week’s Astros leader in strikeouts, which is quite an achievement when you are competing with Chris Carter and Carlos Pena. He struck out 12 times in 28 PA and gave Houston a .222/.250/.444 line.

Three true outcomes

Justin Ruggiano homered three times, walked four times, and struck out 11 times in 31 PA for the Fish.

For one week, Justin Upton didn’t homer, but he did walk five times and strike out eight times in 25 PA for the Braves.

Carlos Santana went two-seven-eight in the TTO categories in 27 PA.

Mark Trumbo gave the Halos a stout TTO performance with a five-seven-nine in 35 PA.

Willingham’s one-six-eight in 23 PA deserves mention here.

The anti-TTO

Robinson Cano gave a very atypical TTO line in that he homered once, walked once, and went the whole week without striking out in 26 PA.

Yadier Molina went zero-zero-three in 28 PA.

This week’s MVP

AL: Miguel Cabrera had a nice week, even by Miguel Cabrera standards, with six singles, two doubles, three home runs, and six walks in 32 PA. This all added up to a .432/.545/.846 line.

NL: Carlos Gomez had a nice week by anybody’s standards. Half of his 12 hits went for extra bases. He also chipped in with three walks and he was five for five in stolen bases. He posted a filthy .462/.533/.962 line for the Brewers.

John Barten writes the THT Awards weekly feature. Please send suggestions, comments, corrections, and input to his email address. Follow him on Twitter at JohnMBarten

<< Return to Article A.J. Ellis: hardly swinging, hardly missing from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

A.J. Ellis: hardly swinging, hardly missing

by Noah Woodward
May 07, 2013

Last week, Dave Cameron wrote an excellent piece on Josh Hamilton and the degradation of his batting eye. Hamilton has been swinging at some terrible pitches this season, and pitchers are beginning to figure out that they can throw just about anything to get Hamilton out.

We’ve seen only a month of baseball, and we all know how meaningful many results thus far are. The good thing about plate discipline statistics, however, is that they don’t take much time to stabilize. Things will obviously change over the course of a season, but April plate discipline data give us something more meaningful to talk about than any April counting statistic does.

With this in mind, I began to look through the FanGraphs plate discipline leaders of 2013. If you sort the leader board one way, you’ll find the league’s free swingers. We know these guys pretty well. Hamilton is ruining his career, while Pablo Sandoval (somehow) continues to make a living off hitting terrible pitches. We hear a lot about this group, and it makes sense that we do. We enjoy watching hitters flail at all sorts of pitches—sometimes connecting, and sometimes looking like Vladimir Guerrero after a night out.

If you sort the leader board the other way, though, you’ll find a group that gets a lot less notoriety (well, at least outside of the sabermetric community). These plate discipline leaders swing at pitches outside the strike zone about a third of the time a Sandoval or Hamilton does. At the top of this list (and by a large margin), you’ll find A.J. Ellis.

Ellis has always had above-average plate discipline, but his eye really improved in 2012. Last year, Ellis saw more pitches per plate appearance (4.43) than any other major league hitter. This year, he remains on top in that regard. The catcher has swung at 13.4 percent of all pitches he has seen outside of the strike zone. He has whiffed at only 23 pitches (out of 473) thus far.

When a career backup catcher suddenly grabs hold of a major league starting job after almost 10 years in the minor leagues, you would think that we would take notice. Ellis has managed to stay under the radar, since he doesn’t hit for power (or average, for that matter). Manager Don Mattingly has typically slotted Ellis in the five or six spot for Los Angeles, and it is possible that he benefits from hitting in the heart of the lineup, behind Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez and Andre Ethier. These hitters have average plate discipline, but they sure appear more threatening than Ellis does. Is it possible that, after dancing around these three hitters, pitchers give Ellis great pitches to hit?

This argument is a convincing one, and the data provide some support for it. This season, 48.3 percent of all pitches Ellis has seen have been in the strike zone. In 2012, the overall league zone percentage was 44.9. Ellis has seen a significantly greater number of pitches in the zone this year than the average hitter typically does, and his high walk totals become even more impressive in this context. However, Ellis posted similar (though not quite as spectacular) plate discipline rates in 2012, a year in which he hit primarily out of the eight hole.

Ellis is also seeing a relatively high number of fastballs (66 percent of all pitches seen) this season, which is obviously working to his advantage in terms of plate discipline and overall offensive production. I do buy the argument that pitchers will throw relatively more fastballs to Ellis after facing Kemp, Gonzalez and Ethier, but we can’t evaluate that argument until we see Ellis hit in other lineup spots.

Is it sustainable?


It’s extremely likely that we will see Ellis’ discipline regress, since he is outperforming his 2012 plate discipline rates. Ellis can continue to be valuable asset for the Dodgers, but it is quite possible that he will have to start swinging the bat a little more often if he is going to do that. Only Brett Gardner and Bobby Abreu have posted lower swing percentages over the last three years, and these hitters give pitchers added motivation to throw strikes. Gardner is dangerous when gets on base, and Abreu could still hit for power when he posted a swing rate of 32.9 percent.

Some might hope that Ellis will start to hit the ball harder when does swing thebat. He will continue to see a good number of fastballs, but he won’t if he starts to hit for power. If Ellis becomes a hitting threat, as opposed to a walking threat, pitchers will also start to offer him fewer pitches in the strike zone.

Kevin Youkilis exemplifies this evolution well. In his early years, Youkilis posted high on-base percentages and little power. Many criticized his patient ways, and some argued that he didn’t hit enough home runs to be a major league corner infielder. In 2008, Youkilis responded with more than a few of those home runs. His zone percentage fell after that breakout year, and he began to see a lot more breaking balls. Youkilis responded well as his plate discipline skills were really put to the test, and he became much more valuable offensively.

This is obviously all speculation, as Ellis has more than a few hills to climb before becoming the next Kevin Youkilis. In many ways, Scott Hatteberg is a much more realistic comparison. Hatteberg’s inability to hit for power was really a blessing in disguise, as his ability to get on base was continually overlooked by pitchers and opposing pitching coaches.

A.J. Ellis has found a way to be successful at the major league level, and I’m sure he isn’t going to try to fix what isn’t broken. The Dodgers should be delighted with what they are getting out of their 32-year-old catcher. While I did bring some attention to his name with this article, my real hope is that we all continue to overlook A.J. Ellis. That’s how the Scott Hattebergs of the world operate best.

Noah can be reached via email at nowoodward15 AT gmail.com. You can check out his other articles here.

<< Return to Article Baseball Press: a fantasy secret weapon from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Baseball Press: a fantasy secret weapon

by Jack Weiland
May 07, 2013

It's tough to recall the exact moment I first discovered Baseball Press, but I do know it's been a daily stop the past two seasons, and with good reason. In standard leagues, you might be able to get away with a set it and forget it approach. But for those of us in deeper leagues, ones where platoon and part-time players have value, the aggregation provided by Baseball Press is invaluable.

Some of the features Baseball Press offers include lineup information almost as it happens, probable starting pitchers, recent bullpen pitch counts, a log of the recent lineups for all 30 teams, and weather reports for that day's games. I recently sat down (across the interwebs) with one of the founders and operators of Baseball Press, Reggie Yinger, to get the story behind the site, and to find out where it's headed next.

Q: How did Baseball Press begin? Was there a void you saw for the information you present, or was this information you saw elsewhere that you thought could be presented better?

Yinger: Baseball Press began in the summer of 2009. I approached a friend who is also a computer programmer and wanted to create my own fantasy baseball site. Previously, I had written baseball articles for other websites, but really wanted the freedom to do my own thing. I think we saw a void in baseball sites as most have a "cookie-cutter" feel and we wanted to get away from that, providing a unique and different approach.

How many users do you guys currently have? How much has it grown since 2009? And was it slow and steady, or was there a period in which you saw a large uptick in traffic?

Yinger: According to our analytics, just under 100,000 people have come to Baseball Press in April. However, since we don't sell anything, we focus more on page views and feedback to determine user interest rather than isolating users, so the growth we view is based on traffic not users. And based on traffic, we saw a substantial jump in traffic in 2009 when we decided to do lineups, and it's been doubling every year since then.

What were your original intentions for the site when it began? How has it evolved since?

Yinger: Good question. I think the original intent in 2009 was to have a website where myself and other potential writers could write about fantasy baseball and have an "anything goes" mentality. We tried to focus on "fantasy baseball" but really wanted to write about anything baseball related. I thought we might write a few articles here and there, and to be honest, I thought the "coolness" of a website might die out. However, we first added lineup information to the website in 2011 and have really focused on helping fantasy baseball players since 2011. We added all MLB lineups in 2011, the My Lineup feature in 2012, and then the Bullpen Usage report in 2013. So yeah, I would say we have evolved to helping fantasy baseball players (like myself).

How the sausage is made: how does Baseball Press work? Is it updated manually when you find lineups posted online? Do you have go-to sources? Or is it automated in some way? How long does it take for lineups to be posted before they appear on Baseball Press?

Yinger: The sausage is made quite easily. I first designed the lineup concept during spring training in 2011 and it was originally updated manually. However, as you can imagine, this resulted in constantly having someone watch lineup information in case of scratches. However, after myself and the other co-founder noticed that the MLB Lineups feature was catching on, we decided to do some computer programming and automate the process. We use multiple sources that consist of beat writers and team affiliated accounts, with a majority of the information coming from Twitter. We typically hope to have lineups for all games within our system and on the website 3-4 hours before the game and we feel like we accomplished this. However, in some cases, we may post a lineup an hour before the game, depending on the source.

Can you quantify the value of the information on your site, particularly for owners in daily leagues? How much of an advantage do you see in having lineup information as it becomes available, and also weather reports, recent bullpen usage, etc?

Yinger: I'm a huge fantasy baseball nerd and I know that this tool is invaluable. Fantasy baseball websites that host the leagues (ESPN, Yahoo!, etc) try to inform users if a player isn't starting, but this information is typically delayed or incorrect. I think having this information hours before a game is great for daily league players because it allows owners to prepare their team for that night's games, whether it be reviewing ballpark factors, weather, or matchups for pitchers vs. batters.

Speaking of the bullpen usage: is that a new feature, or one I just never noticed last year? What practical use do you see for owners using this feature?

Yinger: The bullpen usage is a new feature for 2013. The story behind this feature is simple. I currently play in a fantasy league that counts "holds" as a category. I really dislike fantasy pitching categories and decided I would "stream relievers" simply for the ability to pick up "holds". For example, if David Hernandez has thrown two or three days in a row, he's likely to have off the next day. With the Bullpen Usage page, I can see this information and pick up another late inning reliever for the day in order to try and accumulate a "hold". If you're not into holds, I think owners can use this information to try and pick up "saves" on the cheap. If they see Jason Grilli has pitched three days in a row, they might try and pick up Mark Melancon from the waiver wire. It's also just a nifty tool to see how managers are using their bullpen.

Is there a reason lineups only go back one week, and there is not a deeper historical archive of team's lineups?

Yinger: Lineups currently go back one week (or the last 7 games) on the team page only. However, if you want to see older data, you can go to the main lineups page and select the date and view all lineups from that date. I think you have just booked our next project with that question.

You mentioned on the site that you will not be creating an application that works with Apple products, but that you are working to make the mobile site sufficient for all smartphone users to use. How is that progressing? Do you have an ETA for that mobile site to be running?

Yinger: After great success with our Android application in the Google Play store, we decided to try and make an Apple application. Unfortunately, Apple rejected our application and deemed it to be "too simple". We decided to not continue down the path with Apple after a first rejection (for cost and time reasons). To try and make every mobile device happy (tablets and phones), we've decided to make the entire Baseball Press website mobile friendly. This means that iPhone users can view all the information on their phones and not have to worry about formatting. The progress is coming along nicely. We pushed back the mobile functionality in order to have the Bullpen Usage page ready and in production before the season started. We should have the mobile design finished by mid to late May.

What's cooking for the future of Baseball Press? Any big developments we should get excited about?

Yinger: Considering 30 percent of our viewers are looking at the site on a mobile device, and an iPhone version of our lineup app is the most requested item, the responsive design for the site is the most exciting thing for us. After that, we'll be looking at adjusting the My Lineup page to allow owners to add multiple teams, but our readers keep us on our toes, so a lot of it depends on you.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

<< Return to Article The Verdict: keeping it on the DL from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The Verdict: keeping it on the DL

by Michael Stein
May 07, 2013

There are dozens of ways to customize a fantasy baseball league. Whether it is roto or points, head-to-head or cumulative, daily or weekly, keeper or non-keeper, mixed league or AL/NL only, you get the point. After making those decisions, you must decide how many teams to include in the league and then set roster limits including positions and the number of bench players allowed. After all of that, a decision that is often taken for granted is whether to allow for DL slots, and if so, how many.

Just like death and taxes are the only things guaranteed in life, injuries are all but assured in a fantasy baseball league. We see it almost every day where players go down with injuries, which wreaks havoc on major league teams as well as millions of fantasy baseball players. In actual baseball, teams can place their players on the disabled list where they remain safe and sound until they can come back. On fantasy teams, it isn't always so easy.

Depending on the number of teams and size of rosters in your league, the free agent pool tends to be lacking sufficient replacements when a player gets injured. That is why some leagues opt to not allow for DL slots at all. Sure, not having a DL slot creates drama, intrigue and true strategic planning when deciding whether to hold on to a player. But if a fantasy manager elects to build his bench with players at certain positions, he may not be able to replace that injured player without deviating from his strategy.

That is not to say that fantasy players are entitled to stay committed to the plans they made in the offseason or during the draft. But if we want to truly replicate some semblance of reality in our fantasy games, players need the flexibility to be able to stash certain injured players without being at the expense of someone else. This is why I advocate having DL slots available. But how many?

Deciding how many DL slots are available would logically be based on the number of teams in the league and the size of the rosters. One would think that the more teams and the bigger the rosters, the fewer DL spots a league should have. That does make some sense. But it also makes sense even if it is a smaller league with more limited rosters. Regardless of how many teams are in the league, it is advisable not to let fantasy players hoard injured players. I understand that teams are permitted to allocate their FAAB dollars or waiver positions however they want. But looking at the bigger picture and what is best for the league, the free agent pool should remain as viable as possible for as long as possible.

Most leagues I have participated in have a limit of three DL slots. I think this is a fair number to allow teams the flexibility to stash players who get injured, or even acquire players already injured. If a team sustained more than three injuries at a time, then it becomes a strategic decision who to hold on to and who to let go. This likely won't be an easy decision, but it is something that must be made to keep the size of rosters in check while also maximizing the free agent pool as much as possible.

The decision to have DL slots and the number permissible is something each league must decide. Some leagues prefer to play with the teams they drafted and not have any transactions at all. But if this is a point of contention in your league, it is advisable to settle on three DL slots because it is enough to compensate for a rash of injuries and few enough to prevent excessive hoarding of injured players.

The Court wants to hear your comments on whether you concur or dissent with the verdict by sending an email to michael.stein @ fantasyjudgment.com, or find us on Facebook and Twitter @FantasyJudgment.

<< Return to Article The National League Graph, 2013 from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The National League Graph, 2013

by Dave Studeman
May 06, 2013



Dave was called a "national treasure" by Rob Neyer. Seriously. Comments about this article can be sent to him through the miracle of e-mail.

<< Return to Article And That Happened from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

And That Happened

by Craig Calcaterra
May 06, 2013



Craig writes the HardballTalk blog for NBC Sports.com

<< Return to Article The daily grind: 5-6-13 from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The daily grind: 5-6-13

by Brad Johnson
May 06, 2013

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.


Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): Andrew Cashner is back down to 28 percent owned and the only guy today that I can possibly recommend.

I suppose Nick Tepesch's command and control profile matches-up well with the Cubs.

Pitcher (bum): It's easy to forget that Chris Capuano is coming off the best season of an otherwise mediocre career. He's probably worth trying to exploit until he has a solid start.

Vance Worley has a tough assignment against the Red Sox.

Ubaldo Jimenez is coming off his best outing in years, but the A's present a surprisingly difficult lineup to flummox.

Hitter (power): Cody Ross will see Capuano.

Seth Smith and Brandon Moss draw the righty.

You can try good 'ol Daniel Nava against Worley too.

Hitter (speed): Chris Denorfia will face lefty Wade LeBlanc.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): There are a few names worth a shake today.

Justin Grimm looks like an under-the-radar core fantasy starter. He is opposed by a potent Brewers offense, so beware.

J.A. Happ finally gets a match-up against a mid-tier lineup.

Zach McAllister has a semi-difficult assignment against the A's.

Pitcher (bum): I think the Pirates will plunder the Mariners and Aaron Harang.

I'm predicting some struggles out of Scott Diamond tomorrow despite good results to date.

Hitter (power): Try Brandon Belt against Kyle Kendrick.

Jonny Gomes and Nava will face a hittable lefty.

C.J. Wilson is a nice opponent for Chris Carter.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra will see Josh Beckett.

Noteworthy news


Roy Halladay appears headed to the disabled list with an unspecified shoulder injury. I've been saying all season that he's throwing through a shoulder issue - I've watched enough tape of myself doing the same to know what it looks like.

Weather watch


Three games face a rain threat today, including two in California. The Braves and Reds are most likely to see delays or cancellation, but the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Marlins, and Padres may see some rare California rain.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

<< Return to Article AL East division update: May edition from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

AL East division update: May edition

by Nick Fleder
May 06, 2013

image

If a casual fan were to peek at the AL East standings today, he or she would hardly bat an eye: the powerhouses of the past decade sit pretty atop the pack, a couple of dark horses remain firmly in the hunt, and the bottom feeder is beginning to slip away from contention already.

The order is not what hardcore fans of any flock were predicting, though. You’ll remember quickly that the Toronto Blue Jays added over $35.5 million this offseason and were heavily favored in the division. You’ll remember that the Boston Red Sox could not muster 70 wins last year, and that some were convinced their 2013 also was doomed. And you’ll surely remember that the New York Yankees were left for dead by a number of pundits. The order today may surprise, but all along—and no one seemed to disagree with this characterization—the division has been wide open.

What is eating the Toronto Blue Jays?

A team with raw talent is not necessarily a team with winning chemistry, as evidenced by this particular collection of superstars. The Blue Jays were supposed to beat any opponent with their multi-angular attack: two doses of speed (Jose Reyes and Rajai Davis) and at least two doses of power (Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, and Brett Lawrie)—if their pitching ever failed. And in-between the offensive fireworks, the high-value arms were supposed to sprinkle in a few gems here and there.

No such luck. R.A. Dickey, the NL Cy Young winner last year who was booed off the field on Saturday, called the team “dysfunctional...kind of searching for a way.” But is such a diagnosis, a team lacking chemistry, too easy, too simple?

Injuries are partly to blame. Lawrie, Reyes, Josh Johnson, and Bautista each have missed time. And luck hasn’t been kind to a number of Blue Jay bats.

Adjust the performance, though, for luck; for strength of schedule; for predicted runs scored versus reality; for just about everything, and you’re left with a team that’s won as many games—11, as of this writing—as they should have. Talent has diverged from success, and what better immeasurable factor to blame it on than team chemistry?

Where is the swagger of the Tampa Bay Rays?

There was some level of fear that when the Rays let B.J. Upton walk, their offense would suffer. Fast-forward a few months, and there was some level of feeling that they overcompensated; that when the Rays swapped James Shields for minor-league masher Wil Myers, their pitching would suffer at the hand of offensive reinforcements. The balance seemed delicate any way you sliced it.

The concerns of dismal offensive production surely seem overblown at this juncture: the offense rocks the sixth-highest WAR (per FanGraphs), despite a .279 team BABIP. The pitching has been another story altogether.

While Shields tosses fire in Royal blue (he has a 3.00 ERA supported by a 2.78 FIP and 3.22 xFIP), the Rays starters—at the hand of many too many home runs—have combined for a 4.21 staff ERA. Alex Cobb has experienced a breakout that seems legitimate and withholds tests of luck (he’s riding on superior control) and stay (his hot streak is a continuation of last September’s 2.73 ERA).

Luck will help David Price escape the doldrums, but the recipe for the Rays might be a fifth-starter replacement for Roberto Hernandez. And James Loney’s run of greatness (his 171 wRC+ means he’s 71 percent better than league average in total offensive production) surely will come to an end. So the two ends of the spectrum converge ... a delicate balance, indeed.

Do the Baltimore Orioles have staying power?

The Orioles of last year were a special kind of lucky. Or so we thought. Their 29-9 record in one-run games (a .763 win percentage) was the third-best in baseball history and the best since the 1890 Brooklyn Bridegrooms. Naturally, the line told a story of luck over skill, a story of fate over one of deft field management.

Whether or not luck was to thank for a highly successful 2012, this year, the Orioles are prevailing on talent. Their top three offensive players—Manny Machado, Chris Davis, and Adam Jones, all among the top 50 in WAR, per FanGraphs—have been forces. Despite some luck, the trio should remain forceful all year. Machado has All-Star potential, and the latter two are the magic age of 27.

The intangibles have to be considered: Buck Showalter has a young squad (oldest active player is 32), with home run power (their 39 home runs are among the top five in baseball) and a groundball-heavy bullpen (relievers on the team have a combined 46.7 groundball percentage). Perhaps they aren’t built to last, but right under our noses, the Orioles have built themselves into a division force.

Are the New York Yankees championship contenders?

The conventional wisdom on the Yankees looked something like this in March: if the brittle staff can keep the bed clean, the woefully average offense might be able to muster up enough spark to win a few games. With the overachieving Ivan Nova, the enigmatic Phil Hughes, and the final professional days of Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda, though, the equation looked a bit optimistic.

Perhaps 2013 was to go down in Yankee history as the sacrificed year, where the lifting of the luxury cap burden was the only goal; a painful footnote in an otherwise dominant few decades. It didn’t help matters that Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez were missing in action. April was the month where the house of cards seemed destined fall.

But the Yankees—on the surprising backs of Vernon Wells, Travis Hafner, Lyle Overbay, and Francisco Cervelli, all supported by generally excellent starting pitching— have hovered around the top of the standings for nearly the whole month. And reinforcements are on the way.

The success begs the question: was the panic overstated? The offense was to be anchored all along by a perennial MVP candidate in Robinson Cano. The staff was to be anchored all along by a perennial Cy Young candidate in CC Sabathia. Brett Gardner averaged nearly 5.5 wins in 2010 and 2011, and he was fully healthy going into the season; Kuroda hadn’t a bad season to his name in his major league career.

Whether they’re overperforming or not, reinforcements are on the way. Perhaps the Yankees can sneak into the playoffs, and a team built around the home run and the pitching staff surely can make a run.

How poisonous was Bobby Valentine’s presence?

Clock in with a top-five offense and a top-five pitching staff, and you’ll surely find yourself atop your division, no matter what demons follow you from the previous season. The Sox have piggybacked on the performances of Clay Buchholz (Cy Young candidate, or spit baller, or both?) and Jacoby Ellsbury.

A couple of things about this accomplishment are noteworthy. Firstly, besides a four-game set at the end of the month against the Astros, the Red Sox haven’t played a bad team all year. (This requires us to give Toronto the benefit of the doubt, but we’ve established that they are, though flawed, extremely talented.)

Secondly, the highest xFIP on the starting staff belongs to Jon Lester, who is generating ground balls at nearly a 50-percent rate. Besides a slightly prolonged Alfredo Aceves hiccup for a handful of starts, the Red Sox arms—and this shockingly includes John Lackey—have been superb.

If you haven’t already, it’s time to admit you were wrong about the Red Sox. Even I didn’t have them pinned down right. This year, discipline and camaraderie are staples. The boys are playing with confidence, and love—even with the Valentine departed—is in the dugout.

Nick can be reached for questions, comments, or concerns via email: nick.fleder AT gmail DOT com.

<< Return to Article That other infield shift, and five hitters who should fear it from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

That other infield shift, and five hitters who should fear it

by Noah Woodward
May 06, 2013

There’s no denying that the infield shift has changed the way teams approach the game defensively. In recent years, we have seen teams shift more often than ever before, and most dead-pull left-handed hitters have struggled to respond adequately. If the left-handed hitter infield shift is so effective, then why have so few major league clubs implemented the right-handed hitter infield shift?

For those unfamiliar with the right-handed pull shift, the shot below depicts the Astros using one against Franklin Gutierrez in early April. The second baseman stands on the left-hand side of second base, and the shortstop plays deeper in the hole.

image

The right-handed infield shift presents a few logistical difficulties for a defense that a left-handed hitter infield shift doesn’t. The obvious difference concerns the first baseman. For this shift to work, the first baseman must be able to cover the entire right side of the infield. However, the first baseman also must be quick enough to cover first base on any ground ball that isn’t hit to him. A capable and quick defensive first baseman is thus a necessity if a team is to pull of this type of shift.

Additionally, the right-handed infield shift requires that the second baseman be comfortable essentially playing shortstop. Arm strength might be a limiting factor for some second basemen playing in this shift, especially if the second baseman is to make a play by ranging to his right. Finally, as is the case with any type of infield shift, some hitters can beat the right-handed hitter infield shift by bunting.

What makes a good shift candidate?


Think about how poorly some left-handed hitters have responded to infield shifts in years past. The difficulties that the right-handed infield shift presents can’t outweigh those benefits. It makes sense to shift against a significant proportion of right-handed hitters, but I’ve laid out a more conservative list below of hitters that you’d have to be crazy not to shift against.

I considered several criteria in creating this list of hitters. The most obvious initial factor that must be considered in shifting against a hitter is opposite-field hitting ability. Pull percentage, pull-vs.-opposite-field batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and pull-vs.-opposite-field power all are indicators of this ability. I considered all three of these but included only pull percentage as a reference below.

Once I determined that a hitter might have trouble going the other way, I looked at batted-ball data based on pull and opposite-field hitting splits. I gave special consideration to those hitters who hit a large proportion of pulled batted balls on the ground. For these five hitters, pulled ground balls make up almost 25 percent of all balls hit in play.

Conversely, I took note of how often a hitter hits ground balls to the opposite field. These indicators, while not necessarily indicative of future performance, serve as rough and relevant signals of pull and opposite-field hitting tendencies.

Finally, the groundball density plots that I present with each hitter allow us to consider the finer aspects of defensive positioning. For example, some hitters would be especially hurt if an infielder played directly behind second base, while other hitters wouldn’t like to see two middle infielders playing shortstop. Think of the plots as topographic maps, with each additional contour line representing a greater concentration of ground balls.

The list


Alfonso Soriano

Pull percentage: 41.6
Groundball percentage for pulled balls: 52.3
Groundball percentage to the opposite field: 19.8

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Soriano doesn’t pull the ball as much as the other guys on this list, but his groundball distribution makes him the poster child for the right-handed infield shift. He has long been a pull-only hitter, and he can’t threaten any teams that wish to leave the right side of the infield uncovered. Soriano’s overall groundball percentage shot upward in 2012, and it continues to rise in 2013. Nearly 65 percent of all balls Soriano hit to the right side 2012 were fly balls, and in 2011 that rate was a staggering 80 percent. I’ll take my chances here.

Dan Uggla

Pull percentage: 50.9
Groundball percentage for pulled balls: 45.6
Groundball percentage to the opposite field: 12.5

image

Poor guy. We knock him for his defense. We knock him for his bloated contract. Now I’m going knock him for hitting too many ground balls to the same area of the field? You’ll notice that Uggla pulls the ball to third base more frequently than any other hitter on this list, and around 60-70 ground balls he hit in 2012 were hit directly at third basemen.

A more extreme shift might be in order for Uggla, because he doesn’t hit anything up the middle or to the right side. I counted eight ground balls hit by Uggla to second base last year—eight ground balls in 630 plate appearances.

Ian Kinsler

Pull percentage: 48.1
Groundball percentage for pulled balls: 53.9
Groundball percentage to the opposite field: 14.5

image

Kinsler likely will be the subject of trade talks later this season, and his pull tendencies definitely are worth watching. We love Kinsler because he steals bases and has some pop in his bat, but it isn’t surprising that he has hit exactly two opposite-field home runs over his entire career. If Kinsler hits a ball to the right side of the field, he’s doing something wrong.

Aaron Hill

Pull percentage: 47.9
Groundball percentage for pulled balls: 42.7
Groundball percentage to the opposite field: 20.0

image

Hill’s profile is extremely similar to Kinsler’s. Hill hit 26 home runs in 2012, and all 26 of those were hit to left field. Hill’s power splits are indicative of his inability to hit to right field. His line-drive rate is also much lower to right field than to left field. The Diamondbacks are hoping that Hill can match his breakout performance from last year, but his batting average could take a dive if teams begin to shift against him.

Albert Pujols

Pull percentage: 52.3
Groundball percentage for pulled balls: 50.9
Groundball percentage to the opposite field: 15.9

image

I had heard that this shift had been attempted against Pujols, but I was surprised to see that he qualified for this list. Skeptics may argue that Pujols has the opposite-field hitting ability to beat the shift, but I don’t see how it could hurt to at least give it a try. I’d ask these skeptics to consider his 2012 season. Last year, opposite-field ground balls represented 2.4 percent of Pujols’ balls hit in play, while pulled ground balls made up 26.9 percent of his batted balls put in play.

Conclusions


The infield overshift for right-handed hitters obviously deserves more consideration across the league. It should be used on pull hitters who don’t hit ground balls to second base, and it should be used on these hitters until they demonstrate the ability to beat it.

We have seen that many lefties still attempt to pull the ball in the face of an extreme shift. Hitters like Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn appear either unable or unwilling to change approaches. Why should we assume that this wouldn’t be the case for Pujols or Soriano?

This shift is out there, and we know it can work effectively. The only thing I see standing in the way of league-wide shifting against the above hitters is conventional wisdom. Then again, if it weren't for conventional wisdom, some of us wouldn't have anything to write about.

Noah can be reached via email at nowoodward15 AT gmail.com. You can check out his other articles here.

<< Return to Article The Hot Seat from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The Hot Seat

by Scott Strandberg
May 06, 2013

The big news in baseball this week was Roy Halladay succumbing to the injury bug, and it seems as though the concerns about him during Spring Training were legitimate after all. There’s all sorts of speculation out there regarding who will take his rotation spot, so I’m going to dig deep and try to predict the Phillies’ next move.

After three consecutive quality starts, Halladay had a total meltdown on Tuesday, giving up eight runs on nine hits (including three home runs) and two walks in 3.2 innings against Cleveland. Then came Sunday, when he imploded in a most spectacular fashion, exiting after just 2.1 innings, having surrendered nine runs on four hits (including another homer), four walks and two hit-by-pitches.

It was the first time the 35-year-old had given up five or more runs in the first inning of a game since his rookie season in 1999. The most disturbing part is that he did this facing the Miami Marlins, whose lineup for the day looked more like a Triple-A roster: Juan Pierre, Chris Valaika, Placido Polanco, Justin Ruggiano, Marcell Ozuna, Greg Dobbs, Miguel Olivo, Adeiny Hechavarria and Kevin Slowey.

Coming into Sunday, Halladay’s average fastball velocity for the season was 89.9 mph. Against the Marlins, he averaged 88.2 mph on his heater. More alarming than the drop in velocity, which can fluctuate from start to start, was his fastball location, or complete lack thereof. In the eight plate appearances that ended with a fastball, the Marlins roasted Halladay for a single, a double, a homer, a walk and a hit batsman, while recording just three outs.

He also seemed to know he didn’t have command of his fastball (or his cutter, for that matter), as he threw nothing but curveballs in three-ball counts. After the game, Halladay admitted that his shoulder has been bothering him since before the Cleveland game, while Ruben Amaro said that Halladay will see Dr. Lewis Yocum and is almost certainly headed to the disabled list. With John Lannan expected out for at least another month, the Phillies will have to turn to their farm system for a replacement.

Phillies fans have been taking to Twitter all day to express their desire for the team to call up top prospect Jesse Biddle. Sure, his overall numbers in Double-A this year are extremely impressive (2.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 11.37 K/9), but he recorded four walks while retiring just two batters before getting pulled after 41 pitches in his start on Saturday. He’s not ready.

The most likely candidate for a call-up is lefty Adam Morgan, another of the club’s top prospects who is pitching pretty well in Triple-A (3.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6.75 K/9 in six starts) after a spectacular 2012 season (3.35 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 9.59 K/9, 2.21 BB/9) in 26 starts between High-A and Double-A.

When Lannan originally got hurt, Amaro said that Morgan was not an option to fill the rotation spot because he would have been pitching on short rest. It was even expected by many (myself included) that Morgan would replace Jonathan Pettibone the next time through the rotation. As it turned out, Pettibone has done an admirable job and hasn’t given the Phillies any reason to replace him yet. This time, it’s a different story. Morgan, like Halladay, pitched on Sunday and would be on normal rest to take Halladay’s rotation spot.

The problem with Morgan is that he isn’t currently on the team’s 40-man roster, so the Phillies would have to open up a spot for him. Tyler Cloyd, also in Triple-A, is on the 40-man and actually started six games for the major league club in 2012. Cloyd is coming off a fantastic start on Friday in which he allowed one run on four hits with ten strikeouts and zero walks in eight innings of work.

Unfortunately for Cloyd, that’s the only impressive start he’s had this year. He had given up at least three runs in all five of his previous starts, his K/BB ratio was just 1.83 before Friday’s gem, and even after that start he owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.

Furthermore, despite the fact that he’s had good numbers in the minors throughout most of his career, Cloyd is little more than a warm body who has never been considered to be amongst the Phillies’ top 15 prospects. Ethan Martin also is on the 40-man, but he has been beyond horrible in Triple-A this year; I don’t feel the need to cite any stats other than his outrageous 8.06 BB/9.

By the time you’re reading this, it is possible that the Phillies have already announced their move. The thing is, it really doesn’t matter too much. The way I see it, it’s between Morgan and Cloyd.

If Cloyd gets the call, he’s worth an add only in the very deepest of NL-only leagues. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher, his secondary offerings (cutter, curve, change-up) are all fringe-average or worse, and he has a four-seamer that pretty much tops out around 87 mph. Yay.

Morgan, however, has the ability to be a mid-rotation starter in the majors for years to come. The 23-year-old has good command of his deep arsenal, which includes a plus slider, a change-up and a curveball to go with his low-90s fastball.

He doesn’t have as much experience in the high minors as one would like, and Morgan may have to do some learning on the job at the major league level, but the potential is there for a solid fantasy starter. He’s worth adding in the majority of NL-only leagues and possibly even in very deep mixed formats.

Even if the Phillies go with Cloyd for now, Morgan still is worth a stash because he’s simply a better pitcher than either Cloyd or Pettibone. He’ll find a spot in this rotation.

Scott Strandberg lives in Norman, OK with his cat, Bea. He is a musician by night and a writer by day. In addition to writing for THT Fantasy, Scott writes for MLBDepthCharts and co-hosts the MLBDepthCharts Fantasy Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @scottstrandberg.

<< Return to Article Last living links from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Last living links

by Chris Jaffe
May 06, 2013

It always has to be someone. There always has to be some last link. Someone always has to be the final man standing.

Last week I wrote a somewhat morbid column here at THT noting who were the last survivors for various pennant winners. It was interesting to see who the guys were who held on the longest after their brightest days in the sun.

Since I’m on this weird death kick, let’s combine it with another of my ongoing sources of interest: managers. I did write a book about them, after all, so let’s see who was the last surviving ballplayer for various prominent managers.

Obviously, there’s a ton of guys from recent times still alive. Most players from 40 years ago are still alive, and plenty from 50 years ago, too. Trying to find out how many men are left alive who played for Casey Stengel would result in too long a list.

Let’s start with 1950. That has two advantages. First, it’s a very long time ago. A 22-year-old kid rookie from then would now be 85, and most men die before they’re that old. Second, several prominent managers phased out of baseball around that time, including some Hall of Famers. Last see who their last living links are.

As it happens, every single team from 1950 has at least one surviving player. (The most recent team that is entirely demised is the 1949 Indians, if you’re curious.) Also, 1950 was a big year for managerial retirements, as a quarter of pennant-winning managers left: Burt Shotton, Eddie Dyer, and Hall of Famers Joe McCarthy and Connie Mack.

Last living links


Let’s not waste time; Mack is the most interesting fellow of the bunch. The man piloted teams in seven decades, a feat that no one will ever match. He began playing in the majors in 1886. That’s barely after the game legalized overhand pitching and before pitchers threw from mounds. It’s before the three-strike, four-ball count. And there are still some guys still alive who played for him, 14 to be exact.

The youngest of them is Carl Scheib, a pitcher who turned 86 years old on New Year’s Day. If Scheib does end up being Mack’s last living link, it’ll be his second claim to trivia fame. He’s already the answer to the question, who is the youngest player in AL history? Thanks to the demands of WWII, Mack debuted Scheib in 1943, when he was just 16 years old. Once he matured, Scheib established himself, winning 14 games for a surprisingly good 1948 A’s club.

Scheib is one of five more Mack-men under 90 years old. The others are Vern Benson, Billy DeMars, Lou Brissie, and Bobby Shantz. The first two are forgettable call-ups, Brissie had a few good years as a pitcher, and Shantz was a star pitcher in the early 1950s, even winning the 1952 MVP Award. Obviously, that was after Mack stepped down.

Predictably, most of these guys are from the end of Mack’s career. He still has one player left from the 1930s, Ace Parker. He played outfield for the A’s in 1937 and '38. His birthday is next week, and he’ll turn 101 years old. Mack’s other half-dozen survivors were all born between 1918 and 1922: Carl Miles, Dick Adams, Larry Eschen, Bob Savage, Joe Astroth, and George Yankowski.

With 14 survivors, Mack has more than the other skippers who stepped down at that time. Joe McCarthy also managed throughout the 1940s, but he has just 10 men left. The most prominent of them is Yogi Berra, who turns 88 later this week. Yogi is one of just two men to survive from McCarthy’s Yankees, the other being Bobby Brown, who later served as AL president.

McCarthy has one other Hall of Famer left alive, Red Sox second baseman Bobby Doerr. The most prominent non-Cooperstown McCarthy survivors are Sam Mele, who piloted the 1965 Twins to the pennant, and Dave Ferriss, the Dontrelle Willis of his day, a stud youngster with no second act. Charlie Maxwell is McCarthy’s youngest survivor, 85 years old.

Shotton managed the 1930s Phillies, who are all dead, and late 1940s Dodgers, who have 10 survivors, most notably pitchers Don Newcombe, and Ralph Branca. Dyer wasn’t nearly as important a manager—he lasted just five years—but he has eight men left alive who played for him. One is Hall of Famer Red Schoendienst, and another had quite a successful post-playing career: catcher-turned-broadcaster Joe Garagiola.

Before moving backwards, in early 1951 another Hall of Fame manager retired, Billy Southworth. Only one player survives from his days helming the mid-1940s Cardinals, Schoendienst again. Several notable players from his days with the Boston Braves are left, including Alvin Dark, Johnny Logan, and Johnny Antonelli (who, born in 1930, is Southworth’s youngest surviving player).

Working backwards


Let’s start going back a ways and see when we finally reach a manager with no remaining living links.

The next notable manager you come to is Mel Ott. One of the last prominent player-managers, Ott managed over 1,000 games for the Giants from 1942 to 1948. However, those Giants haven’t aged as well as Mack’s A’s. Only two are left alive.

Well, Ott’s hardly a prominent manager, more a prominent player who lasted a bit in the dugout.

Go back a little further, though, and you hit the real deal: Bill McKechnie. One of only two men to win pennants with three different teams, he managed for 25 years and won nearly 2,000 games.

McKechnie’s last stop came in Cincinnati, and only four players are left from those squads, none of them at all notable. The baby of the group, Bob Usher, is 88. The others are 90. So in a few years, there will be no living connection to McKechnie.

At about the same time McKechnie left the dugout, so did Joe Cronin. More famous as a Hall of Fame shortstop, he did manage over 2,000 games and is still easily the all-time winningest Red Sox skipper. A half-dozen of his players remain, all of whom are in their 90s. Heck, 95-year-old Bobby Doerr isn’t even the oldest, as his WWII teammate Lou Lucier is two weeks older. Cot Deal, a call up in Cronin’s last month helming Boston, is the youngest, having just turned 90 earlier this year.

During WWII, the only manager of any prominence to retire was Jimmie Wilson. Because he managed the 1930s Phillies when they were at their most pathetic, Wilson has the unenviable distinction of the most games under .500 by any manager: 242. He later piloted the early-1940s Cubs, and two of his players are still with us: Lennie Merullo and Andy Pafko. (As noted last week, they’re also the only men left alive who have played for the Cubs in a World Series).

Last man no longer standing


You have to go back to pre-Pearl Harbor baseball to find a manager whose players are all gone.

As it happens, the most recent notable manager to have no surviving players is Bill Terry. Famous as a Hall of Fame first baseman and the last National Leaguer to bat .400, Terry succeeded John McGraw as Giants manager, lasting a decade in the role and winning three pennants. His last surviving player was Eddie Mayo, who passed away around Thanksgiving of 2006.

Go back further, and there aren’t too many notable managers who retired in the mid-to-late 1930s. Really, there’s no one memorable until you go back to the big man himself, John McGraw.

One of the iconic names in the game, McGraw managed from the 1890s until he was near death in the 1930s. McGraw retired early in the 1932 season, and his last remaining player was Hank Boney, who died on June 12, 2002. Am I the only one who finds it awesome that one of McGraw’s players lived long enough to see the John Mabry-for-Jeremy Giambi trade? Hell, he nearly outlived Darryl Kile.

Shortly before McGraw retired, his longtime friend turned bitter enemy—and fellow Cooperstown skipper—Wilbert Robinson retired. He ran the Dodgers until 1931, and his last living player is also a Hall of Fame manager: Al Lopez. In fact, Lopez was the last ballplayer from the 1920s still alive.

In fact, the Robinson-Lopez connection serves as a key link in one of my favorite baseball chains. When Robinson broke into baseball as a catcher in the 19th century, he briefly was a teammate of a veteran pitcher named Bobby Mathews. Mathews had first pitched in the 1871 National Association, the first ever professional league.

So the Mathews-Robinson-Lopez chain takes you from the game’s first season until 1969, when Lopez retired, in just three steps. Unfortunately, neither Tony LaRussa nor Joe Torre nor anyone else like that played for Lopez. Here’s the best I can do. Lopez’s later White Sox teams had a young third baseman named Bill Melton, who is still active in the Chicago sports media doing postgame coverage on Sox cable TV broadcasters. So if you count that, you have the duration of baseball history in just four people.

Walking back further, two years before Robinson retired, Hall of Fame Yankee manager Miller Huggins died in Sept., 1929. His last surviving player was Milt Gaston, who passed away in April of 1996 at age 100.

It’s odd that Gaston would be the last survivor of the first great Yankee manager. He started out with the Yankees in the 1920s, but then they dealt him away. He spent the rest of his career toiling for terrible teams, resulting in a 97-164 record despite an average ERA. Yet this pitcher with the woeful record is the last survivor of the man who began the great Yankee tradition. I guess it’s fitting Gaston died just at the Yankees were about to begin a new stretch of glory.

People don’t typically think of Frank Chance as a great manager, but he was. The Peerless Leader earned his nickname, as you can’t imagine his teams doing any better than they actually did. Unfortunately for him, he took too many fastballs to the head, which shortened his dugout career and eventually his life.

Chance stopped managing in 1923, but he had a former player make it all the way until Sept. 17, 1998. That’s when Chet "Red" Hoff passed away. Remarkably, Hoff played for Chance way back in 1913, when Chance ran the Yankees for a brief spell. Hoff died at age 107, the oldest ballplayer ever. Hoff also is the last person to have played for manager Branch Rickey.

Go back further and there is Fred Clarke. Like Chance, he’s better known for his Hall of Fame on-field career, but not only did Clarke guide his Pirates teams to several pennants, but when he retired, Clarke was the game’s all-time winningest manager. His last player was Erv Kantlehner, who did in Feb., 1990. That barely beat out Carmen Hill, who died on New Year’s Day, 1990.

The man Clarke passed up as all-time winningest manager is Hall of Fame skipper Ned Hanlon, most famous for piloting the 1890s Orioles clubs featuring the likes of McGraw and Robinson. Hanlon managed until 1907, and his last living player made it to America’s bicentennial: Chick Autry, who passed away on Jan. 16, 1976.

Hanlon’s longtime antagonist was 1890s Braves manager Frank Selee, who later assembled the Tinker-Evers-Chance Cubs in the 1900s. A deadly illness forced Selee to retire in 1905, and his last player made it until 1972. That was Davy Jones, who played briefly for Selee’s Cubs before catching on with Ty Cobb’s Tigers. Jones is one of the people interviewed in The Glory of Their Times.

There is only one manager who retired before 1900 in Cooperstown: Harry Wright, the game’s first great manager. He stepped down after 1893, and his last player died in 1961: John Grim.

All of these men had at least one player survive 65 years after their last seasons in the dugout, and none had anyone make it beyond the 75-season mark. On average, the last living player passes on 70 years after a skipper’s last season.

So we should still have some Mack-men with us for another seven years or so. There is something comforting in that.

History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. Oh, and now he's on twitter.

<< Return to Article Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 6, Vol. I from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 6, Vol. I

by Karl de Vries
May 06, 2013

Greetings, fellow fantasy travelers. Just five days ago, Nolan Arenado was a fantasy neophyte looking to establish himself in the vocabulary of casual fans, but that was before he cranked out two home runs, including a grand slam. Brian Dozier, still the Twins’ primary leadoff hitter for the time being, has yet to establish himself as a regular fantasy play, though Justin Grimm posted nine strikeouts in a start against the White Sox on Thursday night.

Speaking of waiver wire alumni, Garrett Richards lost his rotation spot to Jerome Williams, Andrew Cashner’s control issues surfaced in a bad start against the Cubs, and Aaron Hicks actually hit a home run in Week 5, even though he continues to struggle to keep his head above water at the big league level.

But you didn’t come here to read about yesterday’s mashed potatoes. Let’s get to work dissecting some new guests on today’s waiver wire column.

Scott Kazmir | Cleveland Indians | SP | 2 percent Yahoo ownership; .3 percent ESPN; 6 percent CBS
YTD: 14.1 IP / 5.79 FIP / 9.42 K/9 / 3.77 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 64.3 IP / 5.72 FIP / 7.13 K/9 / 4.48 BB/9


Ah, 2007. Motorola’s RAZR was the hot cell phone to own. Rudy Giuliani was the odds-on favorite to represent the Republican Party in the upcoming presidential race, where he was sure to face Hillary Clinton. The Mets? They were actually good—well, good if you subtract the last 17 games of the season.

But it was also a season in which a young phenom named Scott Kazmir ran the table in the American League, leading the pack with 239 punchouts while compiling a tasty 5.1 WAR. For the 23-year-old, the future couldn’t look brighter, as the ace so many thought the Mets gave away in the Victor “10 minutes to glory” Zambrano trade made his bones among Major League Baseball’s best.

Unfortunately, the baseball gods would have no part of it, banishing Kazmir to an odyssey of arm problems that destroyed his former ace-like ceiling. He made just one start in 2011, none in 2012, and by the time we ushered in 2013, he had gone from being a former strikeout king to a fantasy oversight.

But then came the invitation to Indians’ spring training. Kazmir, now 29, pitched well enough in 13 innings, and with some help from the Indians’ reluctance to start the year with Trevor Bauer at the big league level, snuck into Cleveland’s rotation, though a strained rib cage delayed his debut until April 20, when he got vaporized by the Astros.

Still, Kazmir has turned in two decent starts since, including a six-inning, two-run job on Saturday against the Twins. Yeah, they’re the Twins, but I’ll take seven strikeouts any day, whomever they’re against, and a player who has a strikeout title on his resume should forever deserve some respect.

With Kazmir, two things really matter: his health, of course, and the zip on his fastball, which is not unrelated to his health. The good news is that through his three starts, Kazmir’s average fastball velocity, as per FanGraphs, is 91.7 mph, and overall, he’s earning a 9.9 SwStr percentage, both of which are his best since 2008.

Obviously, we’re dealing with a microscopic sample size, but it’s certainly a step in the right direction, especially when you consider peripherals like a BABIP (.350) and HR/FB rate (18.2 percent) that won’t suck so much once he adds a few more starts to his season.

Kazmir, that super prospect from Mets days of yore, is a pitcher I’d like to see succeed, so maybe I’m reading too much into two weeks’ worth of performance while ignoring the shrieking reality that Kazmir could (will?) get injured again. It’s also hard to ignore Bauer’s looming presence, as he’s sure to get a tour in the Indians’ rotation at some point this year, which would squeeze out either Kazmir or Corey Kluber.

But it’s time to get back to considering Kazmir as a potentially viable fantasy baseball starter, a former phenom still chasing that upside as he looks to make good on the promise of yesteryear.

Recommendation: I want to see one more good start. Then I’m going to add him in deeper mixed leagues with the intent of using him as a match-up guy.

Dee Gordon | Los Angeles Dodgers | SS | 13 percent Yahoo ownership; 7.4 percent ESPN; 22 percent CBS
YTD: 5 PA / .500 / .600 / 1.000 with 0 HR and 2 SB
ZiPS updated: 176 PA / .253 / .301 / .323 with 1 HR and 14 SB


If cynicism is a disease, then consider me a terminal case. Example: When I saw Hanley Ramirez limp off the field with the help of trainers on Friday, I didn’t think about his career, his pain, his family, or the rest of his 2013 season because, hey, I don’t own him in any of my leagues, so why should I care? He’s an often-cranky multimillionaire who gets paid to play a children’s game, and in a country where millions of people are out of work and the desperate among us eat out of trash cans for subsistence, I’ll choose to donate my concern elsewhere.

But because it was immediately clear that HanRam and his strained left hamstring will be gone for at least several weeks, I, like a vulture waiting for its prey to gasp its last breath, immediately wondered whether a replacement, blessed with steady playing time, could provide any hidden fantasy value. And as fate would have it, he might.

You remember Gordon, 25, that speedster shortstop who was supposed to provide a fantasy kick in 2012 when he broke camp with the team. Too bad his bat was screamingly inadequate at the plate, as he was only able to compile a .561 OPS in 330 plate appearances, and when you factor in the 18 errors that were second-highest among shortstops last year—in only 79 games, I might add—you saw a raw talent who looked out of his depth in the big leagues.

But let’s get one thing straight: Gordon steals bases. Lots of ‘em. One hundred and ninety-two at the minor league level. Fifty-eight in the majors despite having appeared in just 144 games entering Sunday. That kind of speed, coming from a shortstop, deserves notice in fantasy.

As long as he can hit, of course. Gordon was smacking the ball around to the tune of a .314/.397/.431 line in the Pacific Coast League at the time of his call-up, and he carries a lifetime .303/.357/.390 line over his 1,963 plate appearances in the minors. Gordon also has flashed the makings of a top-of-the-order hitter when you consider a very decent 13.7 percent strikeout rate down on the farm, which goes nicely with an 85 percent contact rate.

Even when he was drowning in Los Angeles last year with a .228 average, Gordon’s 18.8 percent K rate suggested he wasn’t going up to the plate to flail around helplessly. But a solid average in the hitter-friendly PCL does not end the discussion over whether he can produce a better batting average than, say, .260, and a lack of walks is very troubling.

Also, keep an eye on his defense. While it won’t hurt us fantasy folks, abysmal play at the infield’s most critical position could affect his playing time, and with eight errors in 25 Triple-A games, it’s far from clear that he can play a competent shortstop. Fortunately, the bats of shortstop alternatives Justin Sellers and Luis Cruz have been nothing more than putty so far in 2013, and with the Dodgers needing offense, Gordon should get a serious opportunity to play.

I’m not a scout nor a soothsayer, so I don’t know whether Gordon will get on base regularly enough to be a significant fantasy factor in the month or so that he’ll have shortstop all to himself. But I think about Everth Cabrera and his lifetime .657 OPS, which hasn’t prevented many fantasy owners from using him. Obviously, Cabrera has more experience than Gordon and is probably a better player, but it’s not the worst comparison.

The bottom line: Middle infielders who steal bases always will have a place in fantasy, and in deep enough leagues, they typically find themselves on more than a few rosters.

Recommendation: If you need steals and can live with Gordon’s offensive shortcomings and lack of long-term job security, grab him in leagues mixed and otherwise.

Yonder Alonso | San Diego Padres | 1B | 19 percent Yahoo ownership; 21.4 percent ESPN; 65 percent CBS
YTD: 121 PA / .284 / .347 / .450 with 4 HR and 1 SB
ZiPS updated: 608 PA / .270 / .339 / .417 with 15 HR and 6 SB


No, Alonso will never mutate into a 35-home run fantasy wildebeast, and in standard mixed leagues, that hurts his value as a first baseman. But we don’t often look for shallow mixed-league players on the fantasy scrap heap, and if you can get a guy who will help you across the board in deeper leagues without hurting you in any particular area, you count your blessings.

Enter Alonso, 26. A key piece in the Mat Latos trade a couple of years ago, Alonso has proven his ability to take a base without striking out too much, witnessed by a career 16.5 percent strikeout rate against a 9.6 percent walk rate. He’s off to a good start this year, with a solid slash line and four home runs.

Part of what makes Alonso intriguing is his offseason efforts to improve his swing. Working out alongside Alex Rodriguez (a sentence that feels strange to write, let alone read), Alonso watched video and looked to incorporate more power into his swing. That improvement helped lead to five home runs in spring training, and, with four dingers already under his belt, a good bet to double up on last year’s home run total of nine.

Chase Headley is back, Jedd Gyorko’s bat is showing signs of a pulse, and those fences at Petco Park remain moved in. Alonso won’t appear on any fantasy baseball magazine covers heading into next season, but if you believe his ZiPS projections as I do, then you agree he can provide some help at a corner infield spot in many a mixed league.

Recommendation: Not yet a standard mixed-league play, but he should be owned in deeper leagues.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

<< Return to Article The American League Graph, 2013 from The Hardball Times

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The American League Graph, 2013

by Dave Studeman
May 05, 2013



Dave was called a "national treasure" by Rob Neyer. Seriously. Comments about this article can be sent to him through the miracle of e-mail.

<< Return to Article 50th anniversary: Braves balk-a-thon from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

50th anniversary: Braves balk-a-thon

by Chris Jaffe
May 04, 2013



History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. Oh, and now he's on twitter.

<< Return to Article The daily grind: 5-3-13 from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The daily grind: 5-3-13

by Brad Johnson
May 03, 2013

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.


Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): Jonathan Pettibone is today's auto-start. The Stanton-less Marlins have been preventing their opponents from putting up great fantasy lines thus far.

I refuse to change my tune on the Yankees until their lineup has more than two players with an expected wOBA above league average. I do think it's prudent to avoid starts at Yankee Stadium when CC Sabathia is pitching, but A.J. Griffin is a pretty good pitcher.

Felix Doubront remains intriguing, but this might be the start to sit him if you don't need the innings. He faces the Rangers.

Pitcher (bum): Seeing Jason Marquis, Shaun Marcum, and Jeff Francis starting today takes me back to 2007. All three are prone to crooked numbers.

Hitter (power): Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava are seeing a lot of face time here recently. Nava's been a little more responsive to my favor than Gomes.

Juan Francisco faces Marcum tonight, but he sometimes sits when he should start, like last night. *shakes fist at Chris Johnson/Fredi Gonzalez*

We need a taser because Ryan Raburn is streaking. I hope that joke hurt your insides as much as it hurt mine. But seriously, he's known to go on these streaks where he's a top player in the game, it's just been awhile.

Hitter (speed): Nate Schierholtz, Craig Gentry and Gerardo Parra rep Team Speed today.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): I'm a little more uncomfortable with Bartolo Colon against the Yankees lineup. He's a better play for H2H leagues, since his strikeout rate is fairly low.

Speaking of Yankees, Phil Hughes has been solid in three straight outings.

Some extra luck has taken Pat Corbin past my 50 percent ownership threshold. But if he's still available in your league, a start at Petco is a must-own.

Pitcher (bum): Jon Garland at Coors still strikes me as very exploitable.

Clayton Richard is on the other side of that Corbin match-up, and he's looking like a minor leaguer these days.

Even the Twins can hit Scott Kazmir...is what I'm saying by recommending against him. We'll see if it's true.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston should be back in the lineup for Tony Cingrani. At some point, that boy is going to give up a couple long balls.

We're back to Seth Smith and Brandon Moss for the Hughes match-up. As you see, I'm hedging my bets on that one. Let's just include Travis Hafner against Colon while we're at the hedge.

Tomorrow is a Chris Johnson day.

Hitter (speed): Try Leonys Martin, I haven't used that name in awhile.

Alternatively, Chris Denorfia is likely to start against Corbin.

Noteworthy news


Roy Oswalt signed a minor league deal with the Rockies, which is not an ideal destination for him. I'm expecting to see him out of the bullpen, honestly.

Weather watch


The midwest is expected to see showers throughout the day, which affects the White Sox, Royals, Reds and Cubs.


Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

<< Return to Article And That Happened from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

And That Happened

by Craig Calcaterra
May 03, 2013



Craig writes the HardballTalk blog for NBC Sports.com

<< Return to Article 50th anniversary: player homers in only PA of season from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

50th anniversary: player homers in only PA of season

by Chris Jaffe
May 03, 2013



History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. Oh, and now he's on twitter.

<< Return to Article Debut class WAR-fare from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Debut class WAR-fare

by James Gentile
May 03, 2013

Each new baseball season brings with it a new slate of promising rookies, full of hope and enthusiasm, who are then casually tossed into the dream-smashing furnace that is major league baseball.

This year is no different with the likes of Jose Fernandez, Aaron Hicks, and Jedd Gyorko all making their major league debuts so far in 2013. We also expect to catch our first glimpse of the very hyped trio of Wil Myers, Oscar Taveras, and Jurickson Profar at some point later this summer.

Last January, in a piece called WAR of the Ages, I looked at which age groups were hogging up their share of the WAR trough for each season dating back to 1900. As it turns out, baseball is in fact in the midst of another youth movement, but one that is really just returning the balance between youth and veterans to its previous status quo.

In a post-Moneyball world, it seems plausible to expect that teams might be opting to trust in their low-salary triple-A role players now more so than ever. Teams seem to be paying more attention to stockpiling scouting resources and expanding their scouting outreach to parts all over the globe, overall adding more and more depth to their farm systems.

And it may be more than just young prospects, too. We are also seeing some very useful, seasoned veterans of the lower leagues come up and contribute a great deal for their teams. It would seem that these older players are then promoted to the majors, wrenched of any usefulness, and then quickly discarded.

Perhaps there is a window of opportunity to exploit a debut season. That is, before the opposing team's scouts can discover a non-prospects weaknesses, use him as much as you can, then DFA him. Repeat.

All this is wild speculation of course, but I intrigued myself enough to ask, are players in their debut season seeing more playing time than in the past? Or are they performing better than in the past?

I used data from Baseball-Reference's super sublime WAR .csv file to query all players in their debut season in the major leagues to determine if the debut crowd is:

{exp:list_maker}1. Actually seeing more playing time than in years past?
2. Contributing more WAR than in years past? {/exp:list_maker}

As it turns out, fans were witness to one of the worst debut classes of position players in over four decades in 1993. That group, led by the disappointing efforts of David McCarty (-2.7), Darrell Whitmore (-1.7), and Phil Hiatt (-1.3), amassed a painfully low -15 WAR.

Fortunately, freshmen would rebound from that embarrassing nadir in the subsequent strike-shortened seasons, and matters have continued to improve for debut classes up until the present day. While debuting position players haven't necessarily been given more playing time since 1993, they have certainly contributed more to the league's overall WAR totals:

image

It may be too soon to tell if baseball is entering an era where the share of its WAR earned by debuting players is consistently more so than in the past. But, consider that the debut class of 2010 accounted for just over five percent of the leagues position player WAR. Only once has a debuting class come close to reaching that mark since the diluted talent pool during World War II:

image

The 2010 class was led by a powerhouse debut seasons from Jason Heyward and Austin Jackson (each contributing seasons totaling over five Wins), as well as impressive first rounds from Ike Davis and Giancarlo (then Mike) Stanton.

Their rivals from the 1977 debut class were led by another pair of outstanding five Win seasons from the now-forgotten Mitchell Page and Bump Wills. Interestingly, both of these first year phenoms fizzled out shortly after their rookie seasons, and neither was able to produce a career more than eight seasons in duration.

Historically, however, the current state of playing time for position player freshmen is still very near the levels it has remained at for over forty years. This is generally true for pitchers as well, with perhaps only the most marginal of increase in innings pitched beginning in the early 90s:

image

Debuting pitchers typically see about twice as much playing time as debuting position players. Since 1990, the debut class of pitchers has accounted for roughly 10 percent of all innings pitched, and about five percent of the WAR pie.

The obvious exception to this, of course, is the very bizarre 1995 season. The arrival of Hideo Nomo to the major leagues had a lot to do with this surge, as the rookie from Osaka amassed four and a half Wins on behalf of the Los Angeles Dodgers. In addition to Nomo, however, 1995 also gave us our first glimpse of Andy Pettitte, Troy Percival, and Jason Isringhausen—all with very impressive WAR totals in their rookie campaigns. Felipe Lira and the knuckle-balling Steve Sparks also chime in with nearly three Wins a piece that season, representing the pitchers from this class that time would ultimately forget.

Certainly, pitchers in their first season in the majors have been considerably more volatile than their position player counterparts. Throughout history, both their share of the innings pitched totals and WAR totals seem to swing wildy from season to season:

image

Of course we're not simply measuring baseball's reliance on its youth from year-to-year in these charts, but rather it's willingness to trust those players with absolutely no major league experience. Already we have a number of impact 2013 debuts from players well above what we'd typically consider prospect age a la Hyun-Jin Ryu and Atlanta's Evan Gattis. And this current season in particular appears to be another fine one for players of their ilk.

So, let me ask you? Are debuting ballplayers becoming more relevant to the game of baseball in recent seasons? Or is this simply baseball's notoriously ever-present randomness at work once again?

References and Resources
Thanks to Baseball Reference for the data

James Gentile writes about baseball at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times. You can follow him on twitter @JDGentile

<< Return to Article Card Corner: 1973 Topps: Jose Cardenal from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Card Corner: 1973 Topps: Jose Cardenal

by Bruce Markusen
May 03, 2013

It is cards like this 1973 Topps classic that make me wonder what exactly is said between Topps cameramen and ballplayers during their film shoots. Do the Topps photographers instruct players as to how they would like them to pose on the sidelines? Or do the players themselves have the final say over how they are hold their bats and their gloves in trying to look athletic in front of the camera lens? And how often do these conversations end up in shouting matches with both sides unable to come to agreement over the best way to represent a player on a baseball card?

Let’s speculate as that might have been said between the Topps cameraman and Cubs outfielder Jose Cardenal during a road game in 1972, when this photograph was likely snapped. “Bunt the ball, Jose,” the cameraman might have shouted in encouragement to Cardenal as he sought the proper pose for his 1973 baseball card. That might have been an odd instruction to utter to someone like Rico Carty, Jim Ray Hart, or Bobby Bonds. Those guys were noted for their slugging ability and were rarely called upon to lay down a sacrifice bunt.

In contrast, Cardenal was a skilled bunter who could handle the bat with dexterity. He could do just about everything at the plate, from lashing line drives into the gaps to hitting an occasional home run at County Stadium or Wrigley Field or Busch Stadium.

image
At the start of his career, Cardenal did everything well on the playing field. Signed by the Giants as an amateur free agent out of Cuba in 1960 (he was one of the last players to leave Cuba before Fidel Castro tightened restrictions), he put huge numbers at Double-A El Paso in 1963. He hit 36 home runs, stole 35 bases, and slugged an otherworldly .617, to lift his OPS to 1.011. He seemed so promising as a minor leaguer that it’s somewhat startling he ended up settling for a vagabond career that saw him make stops in St. Louis, Milwaukee, Chicago, Philadelphia, New York, and Kansas City.

Simply put, Cardenal was a coveted prospect with five-tool talents. Some scouts, including a few in the Giants’ organization, loved Cardenal’s combination of speed, arm strength, and power. Unfortunately, the Giants of that era also had a bevy of good young outfielders. Some, like Bonds and Hart, worked their way through the system and became stars in San Francisco. Many others, like Cardenal and Leon Wagner and Matty Alou, fell though the cracks and had to find their way in other organizations.

The Giants compounded the situation by doing a poor job of evaluating their outfield prospects. In particular, they didn’t handle their Latino players particularly well at the time. It’s quite possible that the Giants regarded Cardenal as a “hothead;” that was a common stereotype of Latino ballplayers in the 1960s and 70s.

There was at least one incident in which Cardenal showed his temper. According to a story told by fellow author Dan Epstein, Cardenal took the issue of retaliation very seriously. While playing for the Giants’ affiliate at El Paso in the early 1960s, Cardenal found himself being thrown at repeatedly by rival pitchers. He believed that the frequent knockdowns and beanball attempts were motivated largely by the dark color of his skin and his Cuban heritage.

One pitcher, in particular, threw at Cardenal with annoying regularity. So Cardenal decided that the next time he faced the pitcher, he would come to the plate prepared, by carrying a switchblade in his sock. When the pitcher promptly hit him with a pitch, Cardenal bent down, picked out the switchblade, and began chasing the guilty moundsman. As soon as the pitcher saw the blade, he turned around and headed straight for center field. With Cardenal in hot pursuit, the pitcher ran all the way to the center field warning track and hurdled himself over the outfield wall!

While it’s impossible to prove whether incidents like this may have soured the Giants on Cardenal, it’s probably impossible to know whether his temper was the tipping point in the Giants’ decision to trade him. Whatever the Giants’ reasoning, they ended up making a deal in November of 1964. They sent Cardenal out of the league but kept him in the state by trading him to the California Angels for a fringe back-up catcher named Jack Hiatt. It was a puzzling trade at the time; it’s downright confounding in retrospect.

The trade to the American League not only gave Cardenal a chance to play more regularly, but it also gave him the opportunity to play head-to-head against his cousin, Kansas City A’s shortstop Bert Campaneris. In a rather remarkable coincidence, Cardenal became the first batter to step in against his cousin when Campy moved to the mound as part of Charlie Finley’s nine-positions-in-a-day stunt in 1965.

Showing promise in his first two seasons with the Angels, including a 16-home run season in 1966, Cardenal then flopped in his third year, prompting a trade to the Indians for infielder/outfielder Chuck Hinton. Cardenal played two seasons by the lake but couldn’t lift his OPS out of the .600 range. Disappointed in his output, the Indians traded him back to the National League, sending him to St. Louis for veteran star Vada Pinson.

The Cardinals, playing half of their games on the expansive artificial turf of Busch Stadium, seemed like an ideal fit for a fast flychaser like Cardenal. (He also became “Cardenal the Cardinal,” creating all sorts of marketing possibilities.) With Cardenal in center and Lou Brock in left field, the Cardinals featured speed galore in the outfield. Cardenal put up a .775 OPS in 1970, but the marriage between Cardenal and the Cardinals didn’t last. After a season and a half, the Redbirds dealt Cardenal to Milwaukee as part of a five-player deal that brought back young middle infielder Ted Kubiak.

Cardenal played dismally during a half season with the Brewers. It would not be until his next stop that Cardenal would find some long-term stability. After the 1971 season, the Cubs packaged right-hander Jim Colborn with two lesser players and sent them to the Brewers for Cardenal. Grouping him with Billy Williams (left field) and Rick Monday (center field), the Cubs formulated one of their best outfields in years, consisting of a Hall of Famer in Williams and two players with the speed to cover center field in Cardenal and Monday. Cardenal would remain a fixture in front of the Wrigley Field ivy for six seasons. On a more cultural level, he would also develop his trademark king-sized Afro during his halcyon days in Chicago.

In each of his first four seasons with the Cubs, Cardenal put up an OPS of over .800, including two seasons in which he received small consideration for league MVP. In 1973, he led the Cubs in batting average and emerged as the team’s player of the year. Two years later, he batted a career-high .317 and also drew a personal best of 77 walks. An underrated player, Cardenal became one of the National League’s better corner outfielders.

Then came Cardenal’s decline phase. With the Cubs realizing that the 33-year-old Cardenal could no longer play every day, they traded him to the Phillies after the 1977 season. He struggled as a bench player with Philly, found himself traded to the Mets in the middle of a doubleheader, and endured two more half-seasons of utility play with the lowly Mets before enjoying a last hurrah with the 1980 Royals. Signed off the waiver wire in late August, Cardenal batted .340 in 53 at-bats and then delivered a pinch-hit in the ninth inning of Game Six of the World Series. Even though his hit against Tug McGraw ultimately didn’t matter in a Royals loss, it did allow Cardenal to leave his major league career on a high note.

So why did Cardenal, a solid ballplayer who hit for a decent average, ran the bases aggressively and smartly, and played all three outfield positions to a capable level, find himself suiting up in nine different uniforms over a journeyman 18-year career? Two factors may have been at work. First, Cardenal didn’t hit with the kind of power that he had flashed as a prospect in the Giants’ system. Satisfied with spraying the ball from alley to alley, he never hit more than 17 home runs in a single season.

Second, Cardenal may have aggravated some of his teams with his behavior, which was either quaint or bizarre, depending on your perspective. Some of his managers considered him moody, though that could have resulted from racial and ethnic misunderstanding. A free spirit with an odd sense of logic, Cardenal did frustrate his managers and front office bosses with his quirks and habits. Some of those habits damaged his reputation, while others were flat-out harmless, but all of them made Cardenal one of the great characters of 1960s and 70s baseball.

Let’s consider a few of the eccentricities that made Cardenal one of the game’s memorable figures:

*Playing in the 1960s, Cardenal preferred his uniform pants remarkably tight in an era when most players opted to wear their flannel uniforms loose and baggy. According to the late Seattle Pilots right-hander Fred Talbot, who was quoted in Ball Four, Cardenal once sat out three straight games in winter league play for an odd reason: he could not find pants that were tight enough around his legs. And yes, in case you’re wondering, that does sound like something straight out of a Seinfeld episode.

*Tight pants were just one of Cardenal’s habits. He became legendary for concocting strange excuses for an inability to play. In addition to his preference for skin-tight pants, there were bizarre eye injuries and nighttime distractions created by thoughtless crickets. In 1972, Cardenal claimed that he couldn’t see properly. The reason? He had woken up with his eyelid and his eyelashes stuck to his eyeball. “I woke up and my eye was swollen shut,” Cardenal explained to a reporter. “My eyelashes were stuck together. I couldn’t see, so I couldn’t play.”

On another occasion, Cardenal told Cubs manager Jim Marshall that he couldn’t play in a 1972 spring training game because some particularly loud crickets had kept him up the entire night. Marshall didn’t believe him, but gave the veteran outfielder the day off. When it came to odd excuses not to play, Cardenal was the Chris Brown of the 1970s.

*Unlike many Latino players of his era, Cardenal spoke English well enough to give him a comfort level with reporters. Sometimes, his ability to handle interviews translated into too much irreverence for some people’s liking. When teammate Rick Monday rescued an American flag from two migrant workers in a celebrated 1976 game, drawing praise from most corners of the game, Cardenal became one of the few players to react with a level of derision. He sarcastically wondered whether Monday would be regarded as much of an American patriot as President Lincoln or George Washington.

*Cardenal became well known for sporting one of the game’s largest Afros. In fact, other than the celebrated Oscar Gamble, no one had an Afro the height or girth of Cardenal’s. As a result, Cardenal required caps and helmets that were appreciably larger than his head size—somewhere in the Bruce Bochy/Hideki Matsui range.

*According to his Philadelphia teammate, Pete Rose, Cardenal corked bats blatantly during his days with the Phillies. Rose says he could plainly hear the “sounds of the drill” in the Phillies’ clubhouse, as Cardenal plied his woodwork to a variety of bats. Rose claimed that he used one of Cardenal’s corked bats in batting practice, but never in an actual game.


In spite of his reputation for offbeat behavior that defied logic, Cardenal remained in the game as a coach. He went on to enjoy a long career, winning respect for his knowledge of baserunning and outfield play. After a stint coaching with the Reds, Cardenal joined Joe Torre’s staff with the Yankees. Employed as the team’s first base and outfield coach, he more than earned his salary by providing some sage guidance during the 1996 World Series. With the Yankees holding onto a 1-0 lead in the ninth inning of Game Five, the Atlanta Braves threatened to tie the score—and possibly win the game. As Chipper Jones led off third base and Ryan Klesko took his lead at first base, Luis Polonia stepped into the batter’s box against Yankee closer John Wetteland. Moments before the at-bat, Cardenal noticed that Paul O’Neill was out of position in right field. From his position in the Yankee dugout, Cardenal waved frantically at O’Neill, motioning him to move several steps toward right-center field.

Surely enough, Polonia swatted a Wetteland delivery toward the right-field alley, high and far, but short of home run distance. Racing toward the wall, O’Neill finally caught up with the drive, barely snaring it in the webbing of his glove.

If Cardenal had not moved O’Neill several feet toward the gap, Polonia’s drive would have eluded him. At the very least, Jones would have scored, tying the game. Although it’s not a certainty, Klesko very possibly would have scored from first, giving the Braves a dramatic come-from-back victory. Who knows what the rest of the Series might have held in store for the Yankees, who ended up completing a dramatic comeback in six games.

Although he was a widely respected member of Torre’s staff, he eventually ran into a contract dispute with the Yankees. Cardenal left New York, becoming a coach with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays before rejoining the staff of the Reds. From there, he hooked on with the Nationals as a senior advisor to the general manager, a position that he held until 2009, when the Nats decided to cut him loose.

Cardenal is out of baseball now, a sad development for a man who has been so intertwined with the game as a prospect, journeyman player, colorful character, seasoned coach, and front office advisor. I’d like to think that a faithful baseball lifer like Cardenal would always have a job in the game until he had decided that enough was enough, but I guess that’s just not realistic within the corporate structure of baseball.

Even at the age of 69, I’d wager that Jose Cardenal could still get himself down in a crouch, square his body toward the pitcher, and give us a good bunt, just like he once did for the Topps cameraman.


Bruce Markusen is the author of seven books on baseball, including the award-winning A Baseball Dynasty: Charlie Finley’s Swingin’ A’s, the recipient of the Seymour Medal from the Society for American Baseball Research. He has also written The Team That Changed Baseball: Roberto Clemente and the 1971 Pittsburgh Pirates, Tales From The Mets Dugout, and The Orlando Cepeda Story.

<< Return to Article Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 5, Vol. III from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 5, Vol. III

by Jack Weiland
May 03, 2013

One thing that's wonderful about baseball (fantasy or otherwise) is when your team has a stud that is so studly nothing else matters.

Take me, for instance. I drafted Clayton Kershaw in my dynasty league after the 2008 season and have watched his work with glee ever since. I've also appreciated the notoriety that comes with rostering such a prestigious player. Women want me and men want to be me. When I walk down the street (in a crowded mob, always) children ask to be put on their father's shoulders just to catch a better glimpse of me. Wizened old men and ladies ask for my thoughts about life. It's a burden at times to be sure, but it's also a privilege. I own Clayton Kershaw (figuratively, that would be illegal otherwise) and that makes me a totally bad dude.

(Be advised: it's possible that this section of today's column is slightly/significantly exaggerated)

Ahem. Today's edition of Waiver Wire is not about those kinds of players. No one is going to be giddy watching the guys we'll discuss today, but that doesn't mean they can't help hang a flag.

First, as always, a look at some of our past honorees:

Andrew Cashner did not have his best stuff Wednesday night, and got roughed up by the lowly Chicago Cubs offense. He remains a solid pickup with significant upside, however.

It didn't take long for the Red Sox to ditch Joel Hanrahan in favor of Andrew Bailey full-time. Bailey is still (right now!) owned at much lesser rates than other stud closers, and that should not be the case. If he's available in your league, go get him.

It was suggested on the internet once that J.A. Happ was a capable starting pitcher for owners in mixed leagues. This remains the case, and the person who suggested this is probably one of the top five fantasy baseball writers of all-time. Or his name is Jack Weiland, and he occasionally writes about himself in the third person. Either/or.

John Lackey. Still healthy. Add him.

Luis Valbuena continued his strong play, and although the Cubs keep sitting him in favor of Cody Ransom against lefties, he's still a good buy. The Cubs batted him third against Cashner, which doesn't mean much considering it was a one-off, lefty-centric lineup, but it is telling that the folks in Chicago feel good about Valbuena's offense as well. The luck dragon is catching up with fellow Cub Welington Castillo, but he's still a good source of power from a position that generally lacks it, and he's still widely available. I still recommend grabbing him. Like, fantasy wise. Not in real life, since that's probably assault.

On to this week's features!

Kevin Slowey | Miami Marlins | SP | ESPN: 5 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 8 percent; CBS: 19 percent
YTD: 0-2, 2.15 ERA in 37.2 IP
ZiPS Updated Projection: 3-7. 3.77 ERA in 121.2 IP


Slowey is the poster boy for unsexiness. He was a good prospect with the Twins, but never a great one. He strikes out a good number of batters, but not enough to excite anybody. His walk rate is superb, but his groundball rate is terrible. He's found a home in South Florida, though, and the results so far have been excellent.

While he's unlikely to maintain his sub-3 ERA, he does have a minuscule walk rate (four percent), solid strikeout rate (19.5 percent) and Miami's new ballpark should mitigate some of the risk from his flyball tendencies, as Marlins Park was MLB's fifth stingiest when it came to home runs last year. But as a guy with a sub-90 fastball, and middling stuff, the upside is not here for a run at the National League ERA title.

Recommendation: Strong add in NL-only leagues, and a solid replacement in deeper mixed leagues for injuries/spot starts.

Roberto Hernandez | Tampa Bay Rays | SP | ESPN: 1.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 3 percent; CBS: 9 percent
YTD: 1-4, 5.28 ERA in 30.2 IP
ZiPS Updated Projection: 6-12, 4.79 ERA in 129.2 IP


Oh hey, remember Fausto Carmona? And how people call him Roberto Hernandez now? No, not that Roberto Hernandez. The new one!

Well, this one is utterly undervalued by fantasy leagues right now. He's been covered in great detail by our pals over at Fangraphs here and here. To summarize: Carmona Hernandez's ERA is ugly right now, but he has been both very good and very unlucky this season. A brief review of the facts behind those statements:

1. He's striking out batters at a career-high rate of 21.9 percent.
2. He has a superb groundball rate of 52.2 percent.
3. He has a supremely unlucky home run rate of 23.8 percent, and a similarly unfortunate strand rate of just 62.2 percent (especially considering the rate at which he's striking batters out).

Recommendation: Carmona Hernandez is likely on the verge of a very hot stretch, and therefore is worth adding in mixed leagues as well as AL-only.

Eric Stults | San Diego Padres | SP | ESPN: 0.6 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 6 percent; CBS: 10 percent
YTD: 2-2, 5.67 ERA in 27 IP
ZiPS Updated Projection: 7-8, 4.64ERA in 128 IP


This soft-tossing San Diego lefty is another player with an ugly ERA, but solid underlying peripherals. Despite a fastball that averages just 86.4 miles per hour, Stults has been able to post a solid strikeout rate of 18 percent. Coupled with an excellent walk rate (3.4 percent) and decent groundball tendencies (42.7 percent), there's a lot to like here.

He's been victimized by a slightly elevated BABIP (.322) and low strand rate (63.7 percent). Assuming both of those come in line, and Stults is able to maintain his strikeout and walk rates, he can be of use on Fantasy Island.

Recommendation: Worth adding in NL-only leagues. Worth being streamed in the right situation (like, against the Cubs) in mixed leagues.

Scott Feldman | Chicago Cubs | SP | ESPN: 0.5 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 2 percent; CBS: 6 percent
YTD: 2-3, 3.34 ERA in 29.2 IP
ZiPS Updated Projection: 7-10, 4.33 ERA in 124.2 IP


Prior to his complete game against the Padres Wednesday, Feldman was striking out about as many batters as he was walking, which is generally not a recipe for success. Fanning 12 and walking just one did a lot to change that, though. His rates now look more healthy (18.3 percent strikeouts 9.9 percent walks) but he'd do well to drop his walk rate further in an effort to maintain such a sparkling ERA. Since he's pumping across first pitch strikes at the highest rate of his career (61.8 percent) that seems very possible.

He's not going to set the world on fire (because that would be rude) but he can be handy with decent strikeout rates, decent walk rates, and decent groundball rates. He's decidedly decent.

It bears mentioning that the Cubs currently have both Scott Baker and Matt Garza on the disabled list, and when they return the Cubs will certainly be doing some rotation shuffling.

Recommendation: Worth using in NL-only formats for now. His value is tempered by the fact that he may lose his job at some point this season, but you could do worse for a short term solution on the cheap.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

<< Return to Article The Grand Tour, part five from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The Grand Tour, part five

by Shane Tourtellotte
May 03, 2013

The previous installments of this series can be found here, here, here, and here.

I said earlier that, except where noted, we drove through beautiful countryside. This is the note. The corridor between Philadelphia and Baltimore is just too built-up to be uniformly attractive, although there are patches here and there. It's also sufficiently built-up to give Samantha Daisy TomTom some further problems, though we didn't end up in any unexpected states.

The drive down is quite short compared to all the other legs of our trip. That meant no rushing in the morning, and a good margin for sightseeing in the afternoon. We had just the place picked out.

I didn't see any ball games by the roadside, though I did see a ballpark: Bank of America Stadium at Ripken Field. The construction of that name shows a certain influence, no?

Our hotel in Baltimore had been a luxury apartment building back when it was constructed in the 1920s. The good news: a big, comfy room. The bad news: perhaps the smallest elevators I have ever seen. If two of you are in one, and two others want to board at an intermediate floor, they will wait for the next one.
image
The seven retired Orioles numbers ("20" is obscured), plus the B&O Warehouse. And a ballpark on the right.

The other good news: it was close enough to Camden Yards that we could walk to the ballpark. We passed some non-baseball statuary along the way— a column topped by George Washington, the Marquis de Lafayette on horseback—and eventually started seeing banners with baseball players on them. The banner zone extends for a few blocks, so our arrival wasn't quite imminent, but it came.

I'd been to Baltimore once before in 1998, and got a look at Camden Yards from the outside though I had no opportunity to attend a game. The park was as famous then as now, the gold standard for modern ballpark design. Things were a little different today. The retired numbers outside the park were new, for one. I'm not sure "Babe Ruth's Dream," a statue of a young George Ruth looking into a future not even he could imagine, was there in '98 either.

Baltimore is Babe Ruth's hometown, and there are plenty of reminders about the fact. After our quick first look at Camden Yards, we were off to visit the biggest of those reminders. Following a trail of baseballs stenciled onto the sidewalks, passing a statue of Brooks Robinson fielding with a shiny gold glove, we made our way to the Babe Ruth Birthplace Museum.

The museum is a genuine multi-family dwelling, three stories in brick, from the 19th century, refitted within to its modern purpose. Ruth's mother's mother lived here, and when Mom felt moral qualms about giving birth above the saloon that Dad owned, she came here. The room where he was born is recreated in period detail, as is a parlor on the first floor. Both are blocked off, but left highly visible. My best evidence that this is a real 19th-century home: the floorboards creak.

Compared to, say, the Reds museum, this is a quite modest place. The combination admissions desk/gift shop is maybe as big as your bathroom. The video room, while pleasantly open, has one short bench for viewers: they don't expect huge traffic. (The video that day linked Ruth to the emergence of "The Star-Spangled Banner" as a mainstay of baseball games in 1918, 13 years before it official became the national anthem. The bicentennial of the song's composition, in Baltimore, is nearly upon us.)

The mainstays of baseball museums are here: balls, bats, uniforms, photos, programs, press pins. One wall is covered with 714 small plaques, marking each of Ruth's career home runs. Another section honors the 500 home run club, with autographed balls by a majority of its members. My favorite: Sadaharu Oh, signed in both Roman and katakana characters. One nice hands-on exhibit lets you grip bats used by Ruth and Cal Ripken, to feel how different the narrow handles of today are from the sticks Ruth swung.
image
Baseball is America's mythology. And some of our myths are even true.

My true "wow" moment came from a dingy old brown ball in a case. Babe's signature is front and center, dominating the others on the sphere. Next to it, he added a further inscription: "I'll knock a homer for Wednesday's game."

It's the Johnny Sylvester ball. Sylvester was a gravely ill boy in the hospital, and the ball was Ruth's promise to hit a home run for him in the World Series. Ruth fulfilled his promise, in triplicate, Sylvester made an unexpected full recovery, and a legend was born, hatched out of that egg. Sylvester would live long enough to make his own visit to Ruth's sickbed as he was dying of throat cancer. The magic, of course, worked only one way.

The connection remains to this day: Johnny Sylvester's nephew is the curator of the Babe Ruth Birthplace Museum. No question how the museum got that ball.

If the Ruth museum feels a touch empty, it's because of its twin, the Sports Legends Museum. Built at Camden Station, just beyond the B&O Warehouse, it houses all the non-Babe items and exhibits that had been crowding the birthplace museum. You can buy separate or combined admissions, and though Paul and I passed that day, I'm guessing it's worth a look if you've got the time.

Paul and I didn't have the time. We had batting practice to attend.

Game 5: April 22, 2013
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland
Attendance: 11,168 (not announced at game)
image
Buck Showalter (front & center, white cap) confers with players. Probable wisdom imparted: "Those one-run wins last year were great. We should do that again."

The gates across Eutaw Street, running between the park and the warehouse, opened promptly at five, two hours before game time. This wasn't for general admission (except for season-ticket holders, if what I overheard from an usher was right), but for spectators going to the right-field porch to watch BP and have a chance at a few home-run balls.

This is the Flag Court at Camden Yards, a plaza beyond the high right-field wall. It was sparsely occupied when we arrived—a precursor of the light crowd to come that evening—so Paul and I got our pick of places. I went right to the rail, caring less about ball-hawking than watching the proceedings.

I made the right bargain. There weren't many balls hit to the court that day, perhaps two or three, and neither Paul nor I had a good shot at any of them. I did see something noteworthy near the end of BP, though.

The last batters of the session were all lefties, a long string of them. Lefties, of course, are likelier to pull the ball deep to right. Someone, whether management, coaches, or the players themselves, arranged for a sustained effort to reach the Flag Court when there would be maximum fans there trying to catch what came their way. I haven't any reason to believe they don't do this every day. That is a textbook fan-friendly policy, a little gesture that can go a long way.

Once BP ended, we could get back to exploring. Eutaw Street virtually forms an outer concourse for the park, bounded by the B&O Warehouse which itself has a gift shop and other fan-oriented businesses. A long Hall of Fame wall holds plaques for dozens of Orioles. And then there's Boog's BBQ, Boog Powell doing for this park what Greg Luzinski did for Citizens Bank Park. Paul would be handling this one.

I got to the statue plaza past center field, with representations of all the Orioles whose numbers have been retired. Sizing up Earl Weaver, I concluded his statue had been made bigger than life-size. Would've been cruel to do otherwise.

As always, I cruised the concourse. It stands at street level (the field well below), with frequent openings to the outside. It felt the broadest and most open one we had seen, but the sunshine of the day may have influenced that perception.

It was also the happiest concourse. When the piped-in music started playing "I Can't Help Myself" by the Four Tops, all the workers at an "O What a Dog" booth started dancing to the Motown beat. Good taste in music, folks. It would be at a booth closer to our seats, but I knew where I'd be finishing the five-city hot-dog taste test.

Comparing Wieners: O What a Dog ($4.75)
And ... it was just a hot dog. The weakest of the lot. Maybe I should have gone back to the Motown stand instead.

Paul split his bet, going to two places. When we passed a stand in the concourse called Polock Johnny's, my part-Polish friend knew he had to go there. He got himself a kielbasa with the works—which he reported was decent, not great. From my own experience, I know that a kielbasa should be better than decent, so this was a negative review.

The second part of his ballpark dinner was a BBQ sandwich from Boog's BBQ. This was outright disappointing. The worst part was seeing barbecue sauce being applied from a squeeze bottle. Nobody who eats Kansas City barbecue on business trips like Paul does is going to settle for something that weak.

Hence, Luzinski beats Powell in this round of the Heavy-Set Retired Ballplayer's Food Service Showdown, and goes on to meet Rusty Staub in the finals. Plus, Asheville's Sausage Shack holds its early lead and wins my prize for the best hot dog on our trip. Come with a full wallet and an empty stomach: it'll be worth it.
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No humorous captioning here. Just one of the great glory shots in all of baseball.

Closing out the series


I assumed from the outset that a Monday game in Baltimore would have the smallest crowd of our four big-league games, and suggested to Paul that if he splurged anywhere for close seats, it should be here. He actually went big in three of our locales, and this was one of them. I steered him toward the third-base side, for reasons that the photo on the side should make obvious.

Here I must report that, no, Camden Yards is not perfect. For the first time on the trip, including the car, I found myself with inadequate leg-room. The rows in our section are just too close together. I am not a big man, but I do like to stretch out some, and I felt cramped. I'll chalk that up as a mistake all the other ballparks have learned from in the last couple decades.

The nationals anthems, Canadian and American, were performed by the same man, diminutive, bearded, and quite good. Orioles fans did belt out "O!" at the appropriate part of "The Star-Spangled Banner." They missed several opportunities during "O Canada," however. I must also note that the flag in center was a 15-star, 15-stripe replica of the one that flew over Fort McHenry. Baltimore is taking this anniversary seriously.

There were some boos when PED suspendee Melky Cabrera first came up for Toronto. This was as exciting as the top of the first got, unless grounders to the left side give you the tingles. The bottom was slightly more active. An Adam Jones fly to center drew "Ohs," but Colby Rasmus actually came in to make the catch. A moment later, a large fellow down the right-field line appeared to take a long slicing foul off his face. He recovered from whatever actually did happen pretty quickly, thankfully.

In the second, Adam Lind's one-out flare down the left-field line confused Nolan Reimold, who staggered to his right at the last second but had it plop a little beyond him. The wind probably had a hand in that. Chris Tillman walked J.P. Arencibia—whose on-base before than had been just 10 points higher than his batting average—but escaped on a double play. J.A. Happ put two on in his second, but kept them off the board.

Between innings, I reached a milestone in my life: I got to high-five a major-league sports mascot. The Oriole Bird (teams don't waste creativity on avian mascots: c.f. the Pirate Parrot) came off the visitors' dugout and up our aisle, and I did what the sitaution demanded.

He wasn't the only visitor to the aisles. We had endured very heavy vendor action in the bottom of the first, along with a stream of late arrivals for a couple innings providing obstructions reminiscent of Great American Ball Park and the late, unlamented Shea Stadium. One thing I learned on this trip is that aisle seats can be overrated.

The wind truly asserted itself in the fourth. For Toronto, Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion both went deep into center, but Jones reined them both in a little shy of the track.

In Baltimore's half, Matt Wieters' fly to center was visibly knocked down by the wind. Chris Davis hit a longer one that met the same fate. J.J. Hardy tried one into the right-field corner, but the wind handled that too.

Temperatures had started out a little warmer for this game, but between the wind and nightfall, they were coming down. Again. Each night had been a tiny bit warmer than the previous one, but that left a lot of room for the heat to get sucked out of us.

Toronto started adding its own defensive work in the fifth to supplement the weather. Encarnacion did a split at first base to haul in a wide throw from Emilio Bonifacio at second, nipping Steve Pearce. Bret Lawrie did well getting to a ball topped to third by Alexi Casilla, and did better eating it with no shot at the runner. Nick Markakis then grounded one hard off the top of Encarnacion's glove, but Bonifacio was right on it, producing your standard 3-4-3 out.

Happ and Tillman were cruising, with three hits and seven total baserunners over five innings. They worked fast, as though they didn't like the wind and falling temperatures any more than I did. The first five innings had passed in less than eighty minutes. For someone who lived through some midnight-bound Orioles-Yankees marathons in the late 1990s, this was a refreshing switch.

Baltimore responded with its own defensive pearl in the sixth, Manny Machado making a great barehand pickup well in toward home to get Munenori Kawasaki. Machado then turned the wind to his benefit, his liner driven down just in front of a diving Colby Rasmus. Jones lined one off Lawrie's glove for a second hit. A passed ball (it was ruled a wild pitch at the time, but Baseball-Reference says differently now) and a Davis sac fly brought Machado home for the first run of the contest.

Offhand fact guaranteed to make us all feel old: Manny Machado is exactly three months younger than Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Toronto got it back, Rasmus' two-out, full-count knock getting past Casilla in the 3.5 hole to score Encarnacion. Tillman got the hook, and was on the hook for the two runners he left on base. Submariner Darren O'Day put Lawrie on to load them, but Bonifacio struck out to keep it 1-1.

And before I knew it, we were into "Take Me Out to the Ball Game." Not a note of intro; not a second's pause to actually stand. The bus pulled away without opening its doors. I stayed seated in mute protest.

Happ met his end after walking Pearce. After such a strong and quick five innings, both pitchers were gone before seven, and the pace was slowing. Nolan Reimold did his bit to speed things up by grounding into a DP, though Encarnacion had to do another split to save the second out. Steve Delabar got Casilla golfing at ball four to fan.

The top of the eighth featured a walk, a modest chant of "Steeee-roids!" for Cabrera, and Jose Bautista looking bad chasing a slider to strike out. The bottom of the eighth featured the fifth, sixth, and seventh Harry Belafonte "Daaaaaay-O!" blasts from the PA. Paul encapsulated both our opinions nicely: "Count the [censored] bananas, already!" (Don't leap to conclusions: my threshold of bleeping is pretty low.)

The ninth arrived, still knotted 1-1. with the stiff wind and stiffer pitching, I was envisioning a 17-inning monster ahead of us. Would've been worse if we'd had another game the next day, but the falling temperature still made free baseball a dubious bargain. During the periodic chants of "Let's Go O's!" I had been interspersing the occasional "I'm so froze!" Paul contributed "Can't feel my toes!"

Buck Showalter sent Jim Johnson in to pitch. The home team using its closer with a tie in the top of the ninth: proper and sound strategy. The reward was a 1-2-3 inning.

John Gibbons sent Aaron Loup in to pitch. Toronto's designated closer is Casey Janssen. The visiting team withholding its closer from a tie in the bottom of the ninth, preserving him for a save situation. Sabermetricians do not consider this proper and sound strategy, however common it may be. Baltimore jumping on him to win the game would be condign punishment, but how often does real life serve up such desserts? Even if properly chilled?

With his first pitch, Loup clipped Chris Davis. Hardy bunted him over. I note here the wisdom of the Earl of Baltimore, who said the only time you should sacrifice is when the one run you are attempting to score will win the game. Modern analysts might be even more restrictive. This strategic morality tale just got way more complicated.

Pearce popped out to second. Last stop before extra innings. Reimold got the intentional walk, so Loup could face nine-hitter Alexi Casilla. Add some further complexity: is Reimold to Casilla a big enough drop in production to justify putting Reimold on? I'd feed these questions to Deep Thought, but it'd just sit thinking for 7.5 million years, then spit out a cryptic reference to Jackie Robinson.

Casilla could only ground to the shortstop. Kawasaki got it, threw it, bounced it! Encarnacion couldn't come up with the pick this time. Any other day, I might have written "E-5 couldn't prevent the E-6," but Edwin earned better than that this game. The bases were jammed, with the top of the order coming up: Nick Markakis.
image
Orioles players celebrate, having taken Buck's advice.

The PA should have been playing the appropriate snippet from Billy Joel's "Pressure" here. You don't often get the chance to hammer at a reliever's psyche that way. Take it when it's there.

The sparse crowd was putting forth impressive noise. Markakis fell behind fast, 0-2. He fouled one off, and then the liner! Into short left field, down the chalk. Cabrera never had any chance at it. 2-1, Orioles win it!

The last play of our five-city baseball trip was a walkoff hit. Thank you, Nick.

I walked down to the front row behind the Toronto dugout, taking shots of the post-game interviews. I wanted to immortalize the "pie moment," Markakis taking a shaving-cream pie in the face live on camera. That's virtually standard procedure for any walk-off hero today. One interview ended, another began, and Markakis was still untouched.

An usher asked what I was doing, and I told him. He told me there wouldn't be any pie: Markakis was too much the veteran for that. He noted how Markakis was facing down the length of the dugout, the tunnel mouth in full view so he'd see anybody coming with lather aforethought. Seeing the wisdom of his observations, I abandoned the attempt.

We weren't walking back to the hotel, not at night through unfamiliar neighborhoods. Paul has scant experience with mass transit—his work is in-state, not in New York—but he did look up a light rail line we could take to a stop close to the hotel. Said stop is named "Center Street at Howards Park." The naming pattern is, apparently, everywhere in Maryland.

Paul still cannot believe we bought tickets for the train, and nobody ever came to collect them. You have much to learn about the mass transit experience, grasshopper.

This was the end of baseball for our trip, even if the trip wasn't quite over. The next day had a lot of farm country, and a whole lot of cows. It had another radio call of a long-ago baseball game, including celebratory singing in the dugout afterward. It also ended the only way it could: with our navigation program getting us lost within Asheville city limits. Samantha Daisy TomTom!

Summing up


This was, in terms of pure baseball, a wonderfully lucky trip. We did not have a single sub-par game the whole way. Readers who remember my WPS system for rating ballgames for excitement may recall that its median score for playoff games comes to about 300. I ran the numbers for our four big-league contests, and this is how they look:

Mia@Cin:  386.1
Atl@Pit:  318.7
StL@Phi:  449.9
Tor@Bal:  446.3

Consistently above average, if none that are outright classics. Our opening game in Asheville, the extra-inning affair, would surely score very well by this system also. We got five good games, none of which remotely tempted us to sneak out early.

Not even in the weather we were experiencing. Hey, at least we didn't get rained out. Or snowed out.

I've already stated my choice as the best ballpark of the four, PNC Park in Pittsburgh. As for the worst ... I don't think there was a worst. Gun to head, I'd say Great American, but the inclement weather skews my opinion. There wasn't a bad ballpark; there wasn't a mediocre one. Calling any of them "worst" distorts reality. I suppose I can reach back to the minors and say McCormick Field, where our tour began, but that's an unfair dodge.

I went into this tour with a certain set opinion on modern baseball architecture: that this is the second Golden Age of ballpark design. What I saw over four days changed my mind. The quirks and idiosyncrasies of the original steel-and-concrete generation are worth remembering and even preserving, but today's work has built mightily on that foundation. The retro-classical wave has relegated the original classics to an honorable silver. This, today, is the Golden Age. Even if the leg-room is tight here and there.

Is it possible to induct an entire architectural firm into the Hall of Fame? All four parks we visited were built by HOK Sport—now called Populous because somebody thought they needed to separate themselves from the name under which they gained their shining reputation—along with most of the other baseball stadia of the current generation. They have made a great, tangible, and hopefully enduring contribution to baseball. They deserve the recognition, although in a pinch, the ballparks themselves can stand as their monuments.

As a final review of our baseball tour, I can do no better than to say that Paul is ready to do it again. Not this year, maybe not next year, but sometime. I will be with him. Maybe we'll get to Wrigley Field this time.

But definitely, we're waiting until at least June.

Shane Tourtellotte is a long-time, occasionally-nominated science fiction writer, currently living in Asheville, North Carolina. He will tell you all about the baseball novel he’s shopping if you give him an inch.

<< Return to Article Yankees acquire Chris Nelson from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Yankees acquire Chris Nelson

by Pat Andriola
May 02, 2013



Pat Andriola is a JD/MBA student at NYU. He likes the Mets a lot. You can contact him at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

<< Return to Article And That Happened from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

And That Happened

by Craig Calcaterra
May 02, 2013



Craig writes the HardballTalk blog for NBC Sports.com

<< Return to Article The daily grind: 5-2-13 from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The daily grind: 5-2-13

by Brad Johnson
May 02, 2013

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.


Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): Yesterday I recommended Roberto Hernandez and Ervin Santana for today. Rain and wind will make that game interesting to say the least. Predictable outcomes are out the door.

Despite Dillon Gee failing me again, I love almost anybody starting against the Marlins. Today that is Kyle Kendrick, who is probably worth owning outright. Lefties (like Lucas Duda) can still take advantage, but he seems to have made legitimate improvements last season that have carried over to 2013.

Justin Grimm is also on that fringe of guys who can be rostered outright. I never saw through his 9.00 ERA last year to the solid peripherals, but he generates a good number of whiffs and rarely walks anybody. In a small sample this year, he's not getting mashed. In last season's mini-sample, he gave up a 29 percent line drive rate and .438 BABIP compared to this season's more sane rates of 19 percent line drives and .288 BABIP.

Pitcher (bum): I'm suppressing the urge to make a Joe Blanton fat joke, which is a shame for you because I had a good one loaded up. Anyway, start Orioles.

What's the over/under on runs scored in a Rick Porcello versus Jordan Lyles match-up? 15?

Dan Haren has lovely peripherals. The question is, do his .386 BABIP against, near 16 percent HR/FB ratio, and continued decline in whiff rate tell us that he's serving them up? I'm betting the Braves have a feast.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston sees a lefty. Which is one of Dr. Seuss' most conventional stories.

Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava also see a lefty.

Juan Francisco sees a righty. He's different.

Hitter (speed): Chris Denorfia sees...a lefty! But you knew that as soon as I wrote Denorfia—he doesn't play otherwise.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): Jonathan Pettibone faces Ricky Nolasco and the Marlins. Have I mentioned that this is a near auto-start?

The Yankees' fairy tale has to end sometime, right? A.J. Griffin is down to 32 percent owned. He's a solid pitcher with a solid match-up. He does oppose C.C. Sabathia, so he shouldn't be choice 1A.

Felix Doubront has a fringy match-up in Arlington. I'm not sure that goes well with his penchant for home runs allowed.

Barry Zito is a wild card. I'm a fool for associating with him, but I don't much respect the Dodgers offense at the moment.

Pitcher (bum): Jason Marquis has been good this season, but I'm betting on the Diamondbacks' offense.

The Rays will be the latest team to prey on lefty Jeff Francis.

Poor Shaun Marcum has a tough game ahead of him against the Braves.

Hitter (power): Marcum starting equals Francisco in the fantasy lineup.

Ryan Raburn looks like he's on one of those hot streaks he used to supply once a year. And he'll have the platoon advantage.

Another lefty for Gomes and Nava.

Hitter (speed): Try Nate Schierholtz against Mike Leake.

It's a Craig Gentry start day.

Also try Gerardo Parra.

Weather watch


A windy, rainy game is expected in Kansas City between the Rays and Royals. Games hosted by the Rangers and Cubs could also see a spate here or there.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

<< Return to Article The Roto Grotto: average averages and comparing rate stats from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The Roto Grotto: average averages and comparing rate stats

by Scott Spratt
May 02, 2013

Counting statistics are relatively easy to compare to one another. With an idea of how many fantasy points they are worth, how many it will take to typically earn a specific number of roto points, and how many will be available in all of baseball in a season, you can compare counting stats to each other with appropriate context.

Rate statistics are more difficult to handle because they are really two stats in one, the first a standard counting stat and the second the opportunities for that counting stat. For example, batting average is a rate statistic comprised of hits, a counting statistic, and the opportunity for hits, which is at bats.

As with other counting stats, hits can be more or less valuable for your team depending on their context. If you are one hit away from tying another team’s total on the last day of the season, then one hit is tremendously valuable. If you are far away from both the closest leader and trailer of you, then one hit will be less valuable. However, every hit is a positive event.

In contrast, the opportunity event is always a negative event, a fact that requires a bit of framing to understand. Yes, a .300 average is more valuable over 600 at bats than over 300 at bats, assuming a .300 average will increase your team average. However, the reason that is the case is because of the additional hits, not because of the additional at bats.

I could calculate both hits and at bats as a percentage of league totals, as I did with the counting stats. The problem is that a hit is a positive event that does not equal the negative event of one at bat. A batter that produces one hit per three at bats is among the best in baseball.

I can, however, still calculate the league average, and then use it as a benchmark for comparison. Here is the batting average of all non-pitchers over the last three seasons:







SeasonAverageStdDev
2010.261.026
2011.259.028
2012.258.031



In recent years, league average has declined slightly. In 2012, it was .258. I also included the standard deviation of the batting averages of players with at least 300 at bats in those seasons, which has been close to 30 points in each season.

With the league average and standard deviations, I can calculate the Z-score of a specific player’s batting average. A Z-score is a simple expression of how much better or worse a sample statistic is compared to the mean on a scale of its standard deviation. A Z-score of 1 is one standard deviation above the mean while a Z-score of -1 is one standard deviation below the mean.

Here are the Z-scores of the batters that were closest to each whole deviation in 2012:









PlayerAverageZ-score
Ryan Braun.3192
Ruben Tejada.2891
Mark Ellis.2580
Mike Napoli.227-1
Carlos Pena.197-2



A player with a high Z-score will have a correspondingly high average. The reason Z-score is a useful statistic is that it allows you to compare different statistics on different scales. Jeffrey Gross explains it well in his article from a few years ago on his auction-pricing model. I’ll hit on a lot of those same points in the coming weeks, and I will try to apply some of those principles of draft preparation to in-season strategy.

Scott was named Newcomer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for his fantasy football writing at Pro Football Focus. In addition, he contributes to ESPN Insider as a research associate for Baseball Info Solutions. You can reach him on Twitter.

<< Return to Article Tales from the scorebook from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Tales from the scorebook

by Richard Barbieri
May 02, 2013

A couple of weeks ago I attended my first Yankee game of the season—Yankees 4, Diamondbacks 3—and, per usual, kept score in my scorebook. On the train home, a couple sitting across from us, also game attendees, asked about the scorebook in which I was filling in the totals. This is not an uncommon event, but the man of the couple asked a question I’ve never really heard before: “what do you do with it?”

On short notice I could only come up with, of course, a smart-ass answer. (“Whatever I do with it, you’re watching me do it right now.”) This did get me thinking that I’ve now had this scorebook for nearly four full years, and brought it along to nearly 50 games. So in the spirit of doing something “with it” besides keeping score, we’ll look through the scorebook and find a few highlights to discuss:

Best Game: Tampa Bay Rays 2, New York Yankees 4


Full disclosure: It’s my scorebook, so any best game is going to be a Yankee victory. I’m afraid that’s just the way things are. Still, this was a pretty great game, even for a neutral. Tampa Bay scored two quick runs in the first but were shut out by a Yankees’ cast-of-thousands bullpen performance which included the likes of Alfredo Aceves, Jonathan Albaladejo and Brian Bruney (but not Mariano Rivera) allowing no runs in six innings of work. Meanwhile, Rays’ starter Jeff Niemann held the Yankees in check for seven innings.
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Best Mustache: This guy


In the eighth, Alex Rodriguez led off with a single, ending Niemann’s night. After another single, and a run-scoring error, Robinson Cano struck out bringing up Brett Gardner’s spot in the order. Instead Joe Girardi sent up Jorge Posada to pinch-hit. Posada drove a pitch from Grant Balfour deep into the Bronx night, good for a go-ahead three-run home run. The combination of Bruney and Phil Coke retired the Rays in the ninth for the win.

As if that were not enough excitement, in the seventh inning, Derek Jeter (already 2-for-3 on the day) tied Lou Gehrig’s franchise hit record. Jeter would come up in the eighth with a chance to break the record but would end up drawing a walk.

And, of course, a game is not merely the play on the field. It was a beautiful night and I attended the game with my best friend. While it is true she spent much of the game mocking my scorekeeping—a system which involves black, blue and red pens causing her to dub it the “coloring book”—it was still a very good time.

In that spirit, I decided not to do a “worst game,” because really, any day at the ballpark can never be that bad. But it can be strange…

Strangest Game: Southern Maryland Blueclaws 11, Newark Bears 4


I’ve written before about my experiences watching independent league baseball, but this was an entirely different thing. While the Long Island Ducks, described in that column, could make a good case for being crown jewel of the Atlantic League, the Newark franchise was not as successful. In fact, the winter before I attended this game the franchise had filed for bankruptcy. They are still playing but have moved from the Atlantic to Can-Am League.

In any case, this game started nearly an hour late, owing to a Noah-level rainstorm. The Bears (as their bankruptcy filing indicates) have never drawn well, but the rain storm drove off all but a handful of the crowd. At the time of first pitch, there were probably only 250 people in attendance. The Bears’ stadium is not a large one—capacity is listed at 6,200—but still looked rather sparse.

And this was before the Bears surrender an improbable 11 runs in the sixth inning to the Blueclaws (which is an outstanding team name, by the way) obliterating a four-run lead and ruining the evening for the collection of former Major League talent in the Bears’ employ, including manager Tim Raines and both Jacque Jones
and Carl Everett.

(I had come to the game with the notion of heckling Everett, but there was no way I was doing that with so few people in the stands; especially since Everett is no longer welcome in the Venezuelan Winter League on account of attacking fans in the stands.)
image
Coco Crisp, hitting his second home on August 24th (US Presswire)


By the time the game ended, there were perhaps two dozen people left in the crowd. Somewhere in my apartment, presumably, is the official Atlantic League baseball that I acquired after it was fouled off and I simply walked over and picked it up.

While I don’t wish the franchise any ill, I’ve not been back to a Newark Bears game since. The whole experience was just so surreal; going back would only serve as a disappointment in one way or another.

Best Performance, Hitter: Coco Crisp, vs. Yankees, August 24, 2011


Ugh. I can’t say I enjoyed this very much, but I have to give Crisp his due. In the first inning, Crisp hit a solo home run to give the A’s the lead. He would later walk and have two singles, the latter driving in the go-ahead run in the eighth inning. In the bottom half of that inning the Yankees tied it up on a Mark Teixeira home run and the game headed to extra innings.

Facing Rafael Soriano with two runners on and two out in the tenth, Crisp his second home run of the game, providing the decisive blow. For the day, he was 4-for-4, with 2 HRs, 5 RBI and a walk. It was just the second two-homer game of Crisp’s career—he’s since had a third—and represented a career-high in RBI as well. Combined with the clutch nature of his performance, this spot belongs to Crisp.

Still, ugh.

Best Performance, Pitcher: Livan Hernandez, vs. Nationals, May 26, 2009


I’m as surprised as you are. Truthfully, though this scorebook has seen a number of very talented pitchers—including the likes of Pedro Martinez, Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia—it is shockingly low on truly great starts. So Hernandez takes the cake. Livan pitched masterfully to record this victory, throwing a complete game (the first in CitiField history) while allowing just one run and striking out eight.

Worst Performance, Pitcher: Oliver Perez, vs. Phillies, August 23, 2009


This is an easy one. Over the course of his start, Perez retired just two hitters, allowing two home runs and six runs overall before being lifted—hilariously—after going to a 3-0 count on Pedro Martinez. Yes, the pitcher.

Luckily for Perez, his poor performance was soon forgotten as it was at this game that Eric Brunlett turned a game-ending unassisted triple play, the first in National League history and the inspiration for another column of mine.

As I said, there are still more than 50 blank pages in my scorebook waiting for games to fill them. I’m sure we’ll have a chance to revisit this topic when that has happened.

Questions, comments and thinly veiled threats can be mailed to Richard on the back of a twenty dollar bill or e-mailed to him at RichardBarbieri@yahoo.com

<< Return to Article Daily fantasy gaming: Five adages from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Daily fantasy gaming: Five adages

by Moe Koltun
May 02, 2013

Up until this fantasy baseball season, I solely played the game in the traditional formats. While I was never a rotisserie purist, submitting myself to the variance (and fun) of head to head leagues, I just never had interest in creating a new team on a daily basis—to me, a lot of the fun in fantasy comes from managing a team as you would a real one throughout the ups and downs of the season.

This year though, that changed. After my 2012 fantasy season debacle of being an owner or co-owner in 13 separate leagues, and subsequently not having the time necessary to manage any of them to their full potential, I cut back to only five teams for 2013. To fill the void left by shedding those eight leagues, this season I have traversed into the murky, but opportunity-filled, waters of daily fantasy gaming. And I have to say I’ve loved it.

Although there’s something ideologically nice about having the same team and sticking with it all season long, the most entertaining part of fantasy to me is definitely drafting. And that’s essentially all daily gaming is: drafting a team, just for one day, at any point throughout the season.

There are many strategies for success in daily fantasy gaming, and they often mirror strategies that work in full-season leagues as well. However, because the season has already started and statistical results have started to flood in, there is more opportunity to subvert the norm and go against the grain in daily games because the public is overly inclined to change their opinion on a player in early season small samples. So, here are five rules to follow to help you win more consistently (or perhaps lose less consistently) in daily fantasy baseball games.


1) Shy Away From Pitchers with High Win Totals


In preparation for this piece, I spoke with five of my amateur (non-fantasy expert) friends who consistently partake in daily fantasy gaming. One common thread among them was the heavy use of the "Fantasy Points Per Game" statistic in their decision-making, which is available next to every player’s name on many platforms. It is a very simple calculation that takes a player’s total points and divides it by the number of games he’s played. Sounds useful, right?

Wrong. That’s because of two things: one, it is so widely available that using the stat gives you little to no statistical advantage over your competition, and; two, those results are both in a small sample, as well as extremely misleading anyway. This line of thought leads to rule number one: try to stay away from pitchers that have accumulated an inordinate amount of wins early in the year. It really boosts their "Fantasy Points Per Game" number, which subsequently leads to many more daily fantasy teams starting that player, which, when you’re in a contest against hundreds of other people, is counterintuitive to success.


2) Take Advantage of Platoon Splits


Baseball is a unique sport in many ways, one of which is the concept of platoon splits. Much value in daily baseball gaming can be derived from figuring out which guys fare better against one side of the plate, and utilizing them accordingly.

For example, Buster Posey is a great hitter no matter who he is facing, but for his career so far he is hitting .352 off of lefties with a .654 slugging as compared to a .296 average with a .444 slugging against righties. If I start a high-profile guy like Posey, it has to be in a matchup that is particularly favorable, so I look to only start him in daily games when he’s facing lefties.

On the other side of the spectrum, Neil Walker is an okay player, but seems like nothing special, and is a guy who rarely gets chosen in daily fantasy games. But, he is actually a really solid player against righties—he hits .285/.348/.445 against them versus .261/.318/.349 against lefties. These one-side-of-the-plate guys are omnipresent in baseball, and those little platoon advantages added up over a full year can make the difference between having a winning and losing season.

3) Do Not Get Fooled By Variance


When I read daily fantasy analysis, one common theme is choosing a hitter based on extreme success against a pitcher in a limited sample. While I don’t think that line of reasoning is completely invalid, I would be cautious when using it. The vast majority of the time, those results are just based on small sample sizes, and before selecting a draft pick based on that analysis, I would recommend personally going to MLB.com and watching a few of the match-ups between that hitter and pitcher. Sometimes there really is a legitimate advantage (every single time I’ve watched Ryan Braun face Octavio Dotel, Braun has looked lost) but it’s mostly just small sample size. Be wary of using small-sample matchup reasoning.

4) Always Look At The Bottom Of The List


The technology of price updates on many of the daily fantasy platforms is not 100 percent up to speed with the latest news. Sometimes, if you just scroll down to the bottom of the list where the retired, hurt or bench guys are, there happens to be a rock-bottom priced guy who should be valued as a starter. This mostly happens right after rookies get called up, or a guy comes off of the disabled list early, but even if you’re not expecting it, I’d recommend checking the bottom at every position, just in case there is a mistake. The potential value is enormous.


5) Check The Vig


This is more of a general gambling adage, but daily fantasy games run exactly the same way a casino does: the sites make money by charging you a small fee for entering a game, as a casino charges a small percentage fee when you lose a bet. The thing about daily games though is that the amount of ‘vig’ (that extra percent you pay) varies wildly from game to game and site to site.
Generally, the cheaper the game, the more expensive the vig—most five dollar fantasy games will charge a one dollar vig, which is way, way, way too much. My general advice is to never enter a contest that exceeds 10 percent, which sometimes means having to play some of the slightly more expensive games. But, in the long run, if your bankroll can take the variance, that strategy will help to maximize your profits.


Moe Koltun is a co-founder of RotoAnalysis.com and hosts the weekly RotoAnalysis Fantasy Sports Podcast. Follow him on Twitter @moeproblems.

<< Return to Article The Grand Tour, part four from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

The Grand Tour, part four

by Shane Tourtellotte
May 02, 2013

Earlier installments of this series can be found here, here, and here.

Pennsylvania is not a very big state—nobody from Texas on west is going to be impressed by its size—but it's a pretty broad state, especially for two people trying to drive across it in much less than one day. That meant a pretty early start, not much lingering for lunch, and not many extra-curriculars before we hit the ballpark. We weren't actually rushed, but we were aware of time.

I did have another experience like the previous day's: a ballfield by the highway, and a game under way. This one wasn't professional, just a bunch of adults, some looking older, playing ball early on a Sunday afternoon. Blur out the clothing details, and it could almost have been a scene from a hundred years ago. Almost, because Sunday baseball was still banned in Pennsylvania back then. Or maybe that's just if you charged admission.

We got to our hotel, out on Industrial Highway near the airport. Gotta economize somewhere. The room was about as far from the lobby as the dimensions of the building allowed. Maximum inconvenience, which wasn't actually that inconvenient. At least the takeoff and landing vectors weren't anywhere near us: I don't think we heard an airplane all the time we were there.

There wasn't time for outside sight-seeing, which suited me: I saw Independence Hall and the Liberty Bell a dozen years ago. It was straight to the ballpark, to be there when the gates opened. They let fans into the left-field stands early for batting practice, and Paul still had the ball-hawking itch.

It was here that our navigation program began letting us down. TomTom had been directing us between cities very well, but in the tangle of streets near Citizens Bank Park things got confused pretty fast. Put two turns very close together, and it doesn't efficiently direct you to one over the other. This led to unexpected detours.

Paul began speaking back to the automated voice, called Samantha. (He had used Mr. Burns from The Simpsons early in the trip, but Burns doesn't do street names, and that's lousy for navigation.) His tone was that of a stern parent toward a wayward child, so he needed a middle name to deliver the full chiding effect. This is how our navigation software became Samantha Daisy TomTom.

Samantha Daisy did get us to our parking lot, one we had bypassed some minutes before. Now she would have several hours to sit by herself and think about it.

Game 4: April 21, 2013
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Attendance: 35,115
image
The one place where standing in front of a pitching Steve Carlton is a good idea.

Both of us had visited Citizens Bank Park before, years back. Then, we had seats in the right-field stands. Tonight, we were behind home plate. Not low enough that we'd be getting on ESPN (this was their Sunday night game), but still a very good central location. Paul did some great work getting our tickets.

We had a half-hour before left field opened, so Paul joined me on my statue-seeking circuit of the park. There's one statue out in the parking lot of a generic batter, which didn't do much for me. Specific players are way more fun. Take Steve Carlton over to the side. He's rared back, scowling, looking ready to brain you with the ball he's about to throw. What's not to love?

It took easily half a counter-clockwise tour of the exterior to find our next statue, Robin Roberts. This one took an unusual twist: he was done in black and white. As he pitched in an era when almost all the video you would have of him came from monochrome newsreels or fuzzy little home TV's that hadn't discovered color yet, it makes a kind of sense. If you have this historical perspective, it's a bold choice. If you're a kid who doesn't know 1950's TV, it's just going to be weird.

Next was Mike Schmidt, captured in full follow-through, the "20" on his back stretched diagonally from the torque on his swing. Nice detail, that. His statue stood across the walkway from a 20-foot-tall inflated Phillie Phanatic. Why am I including a shot of the mascot rather than the Hall-of-Famer? Because one of them would figure prominently before the game began, and it wasn't Mike.
image
The Phillie Phanatic, or an inphlatable phacsimile thereoph.

Set off from the stadium, back toward the parking lot, I spied another statue, presumably moved over from Veterans Stadium and likely even Shibe Park. It was the Tall Tactician himself, Connie Mack. As Paul and I did the honors by taking our photos, someone came along to loudly opine on what an SOB Mack was. This can't be a regular feature at the park, or there would have been someone else for at least Carlton. And maybe the Phanatic.

We settled down on line outside the gate—where I got my first and only security pat-down of the tour. I don't care if this might have been standing policy before the Boston Marathon: I'm still blaming the Tsarnaevs.

Paul headed to the left-field stands, and I ended up following. Here I had my second pleasant revelation of the trip. All our previous games had been under overcast skies, any sun that peeked through diminished by approaching dusk. This was the first time I had seen one of the fields bathed in sunlight. The grass was perfect, cross-hatched by the passage of the mowers, bright and green and superbly maintained. Players talked and shagged flies, at home in their natural environment.

I had needed that sight.

Paul picked himself a spot, and I found one for myself, in the aisle a few rows behind the fence. Not too much was reaching us, but some dingers were going to right field, and staff in Philadelphia livery who were the only ones allowed there. One shot went well to Paul's left, and he had no real chance. I stayed loose, eyeing the space between the rows of seats, keeping lateral mobility in mind.
image
Spring officially arrives. (Offer not valid in Colorado or Minnesota.)

Another long shot came in, directly in line with me. Gloveless, I had my Phillies cap off as a makeshift, but I was feeling defenseless, about to freeze. The crisis didn't quite arrive: the ball thumped into the planter just below the first row of seats, and someone from the families lining the edge claimed it.

Not long after, another ball headed for the seats, close to the pole. Lateral mobility! I moved between rows, not fast enough to reach it on the fly. But it looked likely to ricochet, and if it went the right way, I could have an easy cap-trap.

It went one of the many other ways. Soon after, Cardinals were in the outfield, and Phillies BP broke up. We had lost the lottery for the day.

I had briefly explored Ashburn Alley behind the outfield at Citizens Bank Park in my previous visit, and was even more pleased the second time. It's named after Phillies star player and broadcaster Richie Ashburn, who naturally has a statue of himself running through a base, presumably beating out an infield hit. Another standout attraction there is Memory Lane, three long photo-collages of Philadelphia baseball history, generously including the Athletics and the Negro Leagues. The history stops in 2003, their last year at Veterans Stadium. Too bad: they've made some nice history since then.

Beyond left field stands Harry the K's Broadcast Bar & Grille, after the recently departed broadcaster Harry Kalas. He gets his own statue, too: leaning on a bat, microphone in hand, beaming a smile. You're missed, Harry.

The corner of the Alley past right field has The Games of Baseball area. There's a trivia game, and Phanatic races, getting your color of mascot around the bases first. Centered there is something a little less for the kids: Bull's BBQ, named after Greg "The Bull" Luzinski. If you remember how beefy he was, you can imagine the stuff they sell.

Paul went for Bull's right away. I, both trying to conserve money and stick with my plan, went for something more conventional.

Comparing Wieners: Hatfield Phillie Franks Jumbo Hot Dog ($5.75)
This was like my hot dog in Pittsburgh, only more so: pricier, bigger, juicier, and stayed warmer longer. A solid entry, though Asheville's footlong still held the lead. For his part, Paul got himself a "Bull Dog," which was really a bratwurst in a bun. That wouldn't have been a fair fight, so I'm glad I refrained. (Though Paul still said the Asheville dog came out ahead. Adopted hometown, represent!)

I did my standard tour of the concourse. Very broad, very high-ceilinged, more open to the field but less to the outside. Trash can location was better here than elsewhere: I found some on the inner perimeter rather than midway or beyond. I also appreciated the restrooms being very clearly marked.

It was on the concourse that I deduced that something unusual was afoot. Off to one side were about half a dozen people, mostly women, dressed in Tudor-style royal outfits. They seemed to be ignoring the guy wearing the giant Jack Nicholson head. Not long afterward, I happened across a trio of cavemen.

Luckily, I had the two to put together with this two. The night was already promoted as the Phillie Phanatic's birthday, and somewhere around Ashburn Alley I had spotted something about the imminent release of a DVD called Time Travelin' Phanatic. I suspected embarrassing promotion was on the way, and boy, was I ever right.

The birthday party was set up as a Hollywood premiere (which would explain the red carpet I spotted near Mike Schmidt's statue: another piece of the puzzle!). The various characters out of time were from the movie itself, and it turned out the royalty was meant to be Queen Elizabeth I and her court. There was another queen along for the ride, Cleopatra, whom Paul noted due to her strong nose more closely resembled the genuine article than most women portraying her.

Big-headed Jack was there as well, along with a few other faux stars. The big-head represented as Marilyn Monroe looked more to me like Dolly Parton, and looked more to Paul like Phyllis Diller masquerading as Dolly Parton. Lacking the giant artificial head was some palooka in a gray sweatsuit and black woolen cap who was being passed off as Rocky Balboa, and actually being accepted by the crowd as such.

I swear I am not making this up. I write science fiction, but crazy stuff like this is beyond me.

There was cake and singing and highlights from Time Travelin' Phanatic, but I won't go into more detail because my brain is already reeling. (Well, okay: he taught the cavemen baseball.) Suffice it to say that for one night, the Phillies' ballpark was cornier than Ray Kinsella's.

Baseball, in 2013 only


image
First pitch. Wacky fact: batter Jon Jay's nickname is "The Federalist." Checking ... nope, Josh Hamilton's middle name is not "Alexander."

St. Louis attacked starter Kyle Kendrick early. Matt Carpenter's homer lined into right was only part of it. Cardinals batters worked Kendrick deep, making him throw 33 pitches to only five batters in the first.

Jake Westbrook opened the game on the hill for the Cardinals, his record at 1-1 with a 0.00 ERA. Jimmy Rollins greeted this incongruity with a gapper to left-center, sliding under a high throw for a triple. He's been studying under Shin-Soo Choo! John Mayberry walked, and Chase Utley grounded one through the hole where Matt Adams was holding Mayberry on. Tie score, runners at the corners, none down, and Westbrook's ERA no longer clashed with his won-lost record.

Ryan Howard boomed a fly to center, 20 feet short of the 401' marker, advancing both runners and pushing Philly ahead. Michael Young flied out to left, for the easy 7-4 double play. Easy, because Utley apparently lost track of the outs (or less likely the ball) and ran full-tilt through third for home. If he's lucky, that'll cost Chase 20 bucks in kangaroo court. If he's not, they'll make him screen Time Travelin' Phanatic in its entirety.

Keeping with one pattern for our trip, it was very cool again. Keeping with the other pattern, I felt a couple drops from the sky. Not more rain! But there was no more, and Paul hypothesized that someone had spilled a little beer from the upper deck. Not likely: it's set too far back.

Down past our section, in the seats you get to see on TV, there were some big-screen TVs showing the ESPN broadcast of our game. It was running several seconds behind the live events, which I guess helps if you missed something. I recall the bleachers at new Yankee Stadium having their big-screens out there, where they might actually help fans see some action better. If you're in the first row behind the plate, and need video assistance to follow the game, I think you have overpaid for your ticket.

The scoring settled down, even if the game didn't. St. Louis put their first two aboard in the second, and while they didn't tally, they did get Kendrick's pitch count up to 53. Kyle got back in control in the third, retiring the Birds in order on just 10 pitches. In the home third, Mayberry grounded a single past Westbrook's attempted skate save, and stole second without a throw. Utley fanned on a full count, though, to strand him.

Again in the fourth, St. Louis got their first two on. The second was on an Adams bloop that fell in front of Domonic Brown, who played the ball at less than full speed. The boos poured down upon him, something like what Paul thought happened with my "rain." Kendrick froze Freese for a K, then induced a fly to left. Brown caught it, to cheers of derisory long length. Kendrick escaped, but now he had thrown 83 over four.

Ryan Howard had been driving balls the opposite way to left field in BP. He did it again here on a 2-0 pitch, missing just foul. He adjusted and singled to right, but Michael Young's DP erased him.

In the fifth, Kendrick reasserted control with a 10-pitch frame. The home half began with Erik Kratz getting a big rise out of the crowd with a deep fly to right-center, but it was an out all the way. I wasn't one of the cheerers: I was finally training myself to follow outfielders rather than the ball on flies. Rollins squeezed one through the hole to right, but Mayberry looked hacky striking out. Still 2-1 Phillies through five.

Allen Craig opened the sixth with a base hit, and the bullpen started working. Yadier Molina went down looking, but Adams inside-outed a dunker double down the left-field line. No shame in Brown not getting that one. Freese's grounder to third tied it at two.

Then Pete Kozma singled to right, and the madness began. Mayberry threw to cutoff man Howard who, once he saw Adams wasn't going home, threw to second to try to get Kozma. They couldn't do it, but they then threw on to third, hoping to nab Adams off the bag. They couldn't do it. After that, Jake Westbrook, batting for himself, tried to get on with a bunt. There were two outs, so I am hoping he was bunting for a hit. A nice try, but it didn't quite work.

Between innings, the scoreboard screen showed various patrons. One of them was a rotund man with white hair and a full white beard, dressed in red and white. He got a sustained round of cheers from the fans. I, of course, know my Philadelphia sports history. "That can't be Santa Claus," I told Paul. "They're not booing him."

For the home sixth, Utley got an even bigger response than Not Santa with a ground-rule double to center. Howard's grounder moved him over. Westbrook walked the next two, as the bullpen got going. Then Ben Revere grounded into the 6-3 twin killing. Rally dies; crowd boos. Welcome back to Philadelphia.

The Phillie Phanatic was joined atop the home dugout by QEI and her court. I will just note for the record Paul's observation that Good Queen Bess and company can really boogie down, and leave it at that.

Kendrick was finally gone after six, and everybody's favorite naughty-surnamed reliever, Antonio Bastardo, came in. Chase Utley greeted his teammate by throwing a grounder to the wall for a two-base error. Carpenter bunted Jon Jay over, Carlos Beltran walked, and we got to see Chad Durbin instead. The dirty language probably continued, as Allen Craig got the go-ahead hit through the 5.5 hole and Molina walked to pack the sacks. Durbin dug out of the hole, as Adams struck out looking and Freese's liner found Howard's glove.

Get up and stretch! That is, stretch "God Bless America" into the longest, most self-indulgent rendition I have ever weathered. That woman's going to be at McCormick Field the next time I'm at a Tourists game, I can tell. Then we got "Take Me Out to the Ball Game," and I felt better.

Kratz began the seventh with a single that Westbrook again tried, again unsuccessfully, to skate-save. With lefty Laynce Nix pinch-hitting, Westbrook gave way to Martin Brodeur Fernando Salas. Who is likewise a righty. Mike Matheny is not slavishly following Tony LaRussa's playbook—and here it cost him. On the 10th pitch, Nix shot one to the left-field gap for two bases and the tying RBI. Salas and Randy Choate shut down the rally there, but we were 3-3, with two—or more—to play.

St. Louis couldn't do anything against Mike Adams in the eighth, and they sent Mitchell Boggs to the mound for the Phillies half. Paul expressed his lack of full confidence in Boggs, but to be fair, he did get one out before the deluge. Michael Young grounded one off Boggs' glove that Carpenter couldn't run down in time. Delmon Brown lined one to center, and Ben Revere went up the middle, past Boggs' upraised glove, to plate Young.
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Send not to ask for whom the bell tolls. It tolls for Erik Kratz.

Then Erik Kratz rang the bell! Down the left-field line, a three-run home run. The giant Liberty Bell past right-center swung and tolled twice in celebration. (They should have it ring once for every run the tater drives in. Or would that be rubbing it in?)

That was effectively the end. As Paul was observing, "They should play more day games in April," the Phillies did get a couple more hits off Mark Rzepczynski without another tally. Jonathan Papelbon came on for the non-save. "Umpire's cold," Paul observed after a dubious strike call. Yadier finally ended it with a swinging strikeout. It was the widest margin of victory so far on our tour, four runs, but still the best game that didn't involve between-inning underwear races.

We got out of the parking lot, and into a heated car, in good order. As for the rest—Samantha Daisy Tomtom! Another miscommunication between two nearby turns, and almost before we knew it we were across the Delaware and in New Jersey. My old home state. I thought I might never set foot in New Jersey again.

Still haven't. Getting out of our car in an unknown Philadelphia suburb in the dead of night is not on our lists of warranted risks. We made it back to our hotel without much further misadventure, another good game under our belts. One more to go, this one in the godfather of all modern ballparks: Camden Yards.

Tomorrow: The only fitting way we could end this tour.

Note: The concluding installment will be/is available at this link.

Shane Tourtellotte is a long-time, occasionally-nominated science fiction writer, currently living in Asheville, North Carolina. He will tell you all about the baseball novel he’s shopping if you give him an inch.

<< Return to Article Ryan Howard’s odd decline continues from The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times

Ryan Howard’s odd decline continues

by Pat Andriola
May 01, 2013



Pat Andriola is a JD/MBA student at NYU. He likes the Mets a lot. You can contact him at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

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