Yes, we actually classified every pitch
by Dan BrooksFebruary 03, 2012
Dan Brooks is a Neuroscientist at Brown University. He operates BrooksBaseball.net and eats Fried Chicken during every Red Sox game, especially in September. Come follow him @brooksbaseball.
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The Hardball Times
Card Corner: 1972 Topps—Bob Veale
by Bruce MarkusenFebruary 03, 2012
Baseball cards of the early 1970s are known for many attributes, not the least of which is the appearance of the dreaded windbreaker, or the warm-up jacket. During spring training, players of that era often wore windbreakers, in particular to deal with the early days of camp, when the weather tended to be cooler and windier. Some players would wear the windbreaker under their jerseys, an unusual look that became quite a trendsetting fashion in the early '70s. That little trick might have also been a way to sweat off a few extra pounds that had gathered on a player’s physique during the winter months.
Intimidating in his look and pose, Veale is putting his left arm to good use in this photograph, as he finishes off the kind of simulated throwing motion that became a trademark of Topps cards. We know that Veale wasn’t throwing an actual ball on that overcast day in Bradenton, Fla. With steely eyes squinting behind those outsized tinted glasses and his mouth clenched shut, Veale is doing his serious best to imitate the act of pitching, but his tensed fist is a dead giveaway that his pitching motion is staged and not genuine.
The card also has a bit of a surreal quality, thanks to the large steel cage in the background. Is that a batting cage or a storm shelter? If it is indeed a batting cage, it is a behemoth, one that looks like it might be better suited for a fight between two combatants from a Road Warrior sequel.
At the time this memorable card was created, Veale had won 114 games in a career that began in 1962. He had pitched only for the Pirates and almost exclusively as a starting pitcher. In his early years, his blazing fastball had drawn comparisons to that of Dodgers ace Sandy Koufax, who was generally acknowledged as the hardest thrower of the 1960s. Any comparison that puts a pitcher in the same neighborhood as Koufax indicates just how terrifying Veale must have been at his peak.
The statistics support the image of the 6-foot-6 Veale as a monster on the mound. In 1964, he struck out 250 batters, leading the league, including the great Koufax. The following year, he pumped up his total to 276. In 1969, he would post his final 200-strikeout season. Though radar gun readings were not commonly used in the 1960s, it’s a safe bet that Veale, at his peak, threw his regulation fastball upwards of 95 miles per hour.
Veale’s level of intimidation was enhanced by his wildness. Four times in his career, he led the National League in walks. Three of those times, he topped the 100-mark. He was “Wild Thing” long before the movie came out.
When reporters ask hitters from the 1960s to name the left-handed pitchers they most feared facing, Veale's name usually comes up, along with Koufax and Sudden Sam McDowell. Some hitters, like Lou Brock and Willie McCovey, have claimed that Veale sometimes took off his glasses while pitching, as a way of furthering the notion that he didn’t know where the ball was going.
By 1971, a bad back and the onset of age had taken several miles per hour away from Veale’s repertoire and now mandated a move to the bullpen. The transition brought with it a series of questions. Would Veale’s lapses in control discourage manager Danny Murtaugh from using him in critical late-inning situations? Would Veale’s arm be able to hold up to pitching three to four times a week, instead of the one to two starts a rotation pitcher would make? And what effect would Veale’s lack of conditioning have on his effectiveness. Veale had reported to spring training at 242 pounds, the heaviest weight of his career. The increase prompted the bluntest of headlines in the Pittsburgh Press: “Pirate Fat Man Battles Weight.”
An even larger question shadowed Veale in the spring of 1971. Would he start the season in a Pirates uniform? The large left hander’s name repeatedly popped up in spring training trade rumors. One round of speculation had the Tigers inquiring about Veale, perhaps in a deal involving slick-fielding shortstop Eddie Brinkman (the subject of an earlier “Card Corner” in this space). With veteran shortstop Gene Alley hurt and young Jackie Hernandez considered a borderline major leaguer at best, the slick-fielding Brinkman seemed like a perfect fit for the Pirates. Nonetheless, Pirates general manager Joe Brown denied that any discussions with Detroit took place.
As it turned out, Veale remained in Pittsburgh for the entire season, pitching primarily in long and mop-up relief. He recovered from a bad first impression by losing a dozen pounds during the spring, dropping to a more svelte 230 pounds. Perhaps wearing the warm-up jacket aided the cause. Looking leaner as February faded into March, Veale pitched well in frequent relief appearances during the exhibition season. By the end of spring training, Veale survived his own weight problems, the spring training trade rumors, and a simmering contract dispute with Joe Brown to make the Pirates’ Opening Day roster.
By maintaining a spot on the Pirates’ roster throughout the season, Veale earned the first and only world championship ring of his career. After winning the National League East, Veale’s Pirates upended the hard-hitting Giants in the Championship Series before stunning the favored Orioles in a classic seven-game World Series.
The 1971 season also provided Veale with an opportunity to take part in an unusual episode of baseball history. On Sept. 1, the Pirates became the first team in major league history to field an all-black lineup. Veale pitched out of the bullpen that day, one of three Pirates relievers to take his turn in place of an ineffective Dock Ellis.
Veale did not pitch particularly well for the ‘71 Pirates. In fact, it was the worst season of his career. He struggled through some brutal relief outings, which ballooned his ERA to nearly the 7.00 mark. After the season, several Pittsburgh writers predicted that Veale would draw his unconditional release.
To the surprise of many, the Pirates retained Veale and his 6.99 ERA on their 40-man roster. His spot secured, Topps printed a 1972 card for Veale. The card, numbered at 729, did not come out until later in the season. In fact, by the time the card hit candy and dime stores, Veale was no longer a Pirate. In his first five appearances in 1972, Veale had pitched brutally, giving up seven walks and 10 hits in nine innings. The Pirates responded by placing him on waivers. When no other major league team claimed him, Veale agreed to report to the Bucs’ Triple-A affiliate at Charleston.
Veale remained an International League pitcher until Sept. 2. Opting not to bring Veale up for the stretch run as they made their way to another division title, the Pirates instead sold him to the Red Sox, who were contending for a title of their own in the American League East.
Veale found AL batters to his liking. He pitched extremely well in six games for Boston, hurling eight scoreless innings of relief, while picking up two wins and two saves. Unfortunately, Veale’s pitching wasn’t enough to help the Red Sox overtake the Tigers in the pennant race, but his impressive showing convinced the front office to bring him back for the 1973 season.
Appearing in a Boston uniform (and with a windbreaker underneath the jersey) on his 1973 Topps card, Veale pitched so well for the Red Sox that he became their second-best reliever, behind only Bobby Bolin, who was having a career year. But suddenly, Veale’s performance fell off in 1974, Dogged by injuries, he pitched only 13 innings in 18 appearances, saw his ERA balloon above five and a half, and watched his 13-year major league career wind down to its finish.
Veale was not done with baseball, however. He wanted to coach, even though very few black men held managing or coaching positions at the time. Yes, Frank Robinson had just become the Indians’ skipper, making him the first African-American manager in big league history, but outside of Cleveland, very few blacks held any coaching jobs. Veale had to sit out the 1975 season, but the following year, he signed on with the Braves, who made him one of their minor league pitching instructors.
In 1983, he landed in Utica, N.Y., the hometown of his former Pirates teammate Dave Cash. The Utica Blue Sox, an independent minor league team owned by writer Roger Kahn, hired Veale as pitching coach. Kahn’s ownership of the team was something of a sham, a publicity stunt designed to generate a plot for his next book. But the Sox became a success under Kahn. Stocked with minor league veterans, the Blue Sox ended up winning the New York-Penn League championship that summer.
I started working in Utica in 1987, missing Veale by four years. Veale is long since retired from coaching, but baseball diehards in Utica still remember him. Quotable and outgoing, Veale seemed to be well-liked by everybody, not an easy feat in a Blue Sox organization that had its share of disharmony and dysfunction. On a team where the entire front office and coaching staff seemed to be at odds with one another, Veale remained calm and above the fray. In other words, he acted very differently from the image portrayed on his baseball card. He looked a bit frightening in his pose for Topps, but Bob Veale is not so monstrous after all.
Bruce Markusen is the author of seven books on baseball, including the award-winning A Baseball Dynasty: Charlie Finley’s Swingin’ A’s, the recipient of the Seymour Medal from the Society for American Baseball Research. He has also written The Team That Changed Baseball: Roberto Clemente and the 1971 Pittsburgh Pirates, Tales From The Mets Dugout, and The Orlando Cepeda Story.
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The Hardball Times
Supplementing the dynasty rankings (Part 2)
by Jeffrey GrossFebruary 03, 2012
Jeffrey Gross is a 24-year old law student (and die-hard Cubs fan) who currently resides in Madison, WI. In addition to writing for The Hardball Times, he currently writes baseball analysis for the Game Of Inches blog under the pseudonym David "MVP" Eckstein and has previously worked for The Daily Illini and Northern Star newspapers as a film critic and sportswriter (respectively). You can reach him by email at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or by comment at http://www.gameofinches.blogspot.com
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The Hardball Times
10,000 days: 500th homer for Mr. October
by Chris JaffeFebruary 03, 2012
History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail.
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The Hardball Times
Edwin Jackson finally signs
by Matt FilippiFebruary 02, 2012
Matt Filippi is the creator of Yankees Talk Blog; you can email him at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) and you can follow him at @Matt_Filippi.
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THT Forecasts - 2012 fantasy price guides
by Greg TamerFebruary 02, 2012
Greg Tamer is the Manager of THT Forecasts. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions via e-mail.
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The Hardball Times
The all-month team: February
by Richard BarbieriFebruary 02, 2012
As I have mentioned in the past with these columns, it occurred to me that while constructing variously goofy all-Something teams is fun, they are essentially one-shots. Creating teams based on the best players born in each month, on the other hand, produces squads that can be compared to see which is best. With that in mind, each month through November I will be constructing a team from the players born in that month, and come December, attempting to determine who—or when—comes out on top.
Before we begin this month’s list—which I am curious to see, given February’s status as the shortest month—a quick review of the ground rules: each player’s date of birth is as listed on his Baseball-Reference.com page and the player must have played at least 50 percent of his games at a position to qualify for the spot. And—most importantly of all—I reserve the right to realize I made a terrible mistake and change the team up to next December when we compare.
Having gotten that out of the way, let’s begin:
Catcher: Elston Howard
Generally speaking, I use Baseball-Reference’s WAR to pick each of these positions, though I am not necessarily wedded to it. In this case, for example, Elston Howard is technically second in WAR by a February catcher to Smoky Burgess. Burgess was a fine player—he would be a fine choice behind the plate—but never reached Howard’s heights in peak value. Moreover, Burgess spent much of his career as a pinch hitter, never catching more than 113 games in a season.
Also of note: By the end of his career, this spot might belong to Brian McCann. The Braves’ catcher seems unlikely to ever match Howard’s peak, but having started as a regular at 22, could accumulate enough value to overwhelm that advantage.
First Base: Eddie Murray
Conversely, there was no question for picking Eddie Murray at the first base spot. In addition to his substantial lead in WAR over second-place Wally Pipp, Murray is undoubtedly an all-time great. Playing primarily for the Orioles, the switch-hitter finished his career with more than 500 home runs and placed fifth or higher in the MVP voting every year from 1981 through to 1985.
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| His time in NY was not the best, but no one can question Roberto Alomar's greatness (Icon/SMI) |
Second Base: Roberto Alomar
Every month seems to have a position where there is a wealth of good choices. For February, that position is second base. In addition to Alomar—about whom more in a moment—the Groundhogs (what else would a February team be called?) could turn to Hall of Famer Joe Gordon or Hall of Famer Red Schoendienst.
Despite those names, Alomar is an easy choice. The switch-hitting second generation player was a 12-time All-Star, 10-time Gold Glove winner at second (no one has more) and four-time Silver Slugger award winner.
Third Base: Ron Santo
Finally elected—a year too late to see it, shamefully—to the Hall of Fame this past December, Ron Santo is one of the 10 best third basemen who ever lived. Santo’s skills, including leading the National League in walks four times and finishing in the top five eight times, were severely underappreciated in their time but will be on Team February.
Shortstop: Honus Wagner
There have been some tremendous shortstops in baseball history: Hall of Famers like Cal Ripken, Arky Vaughn and recent electee Barry Larkin. They go along, of course, with recent and still active greats like Alan Trammell (a February birth himself) and Derek Jeter. But Honus Wagner stands alone as the greatest. The Flying Dutchman—an outstanding nickname, incidentally—remained a dominant offensive force while playing short through age 38 and his performance in the years before that was simply outstanding. If, as the saying goes, great teams are built up the middle, February is in good shape with their double-play combination.
Left Field: Monte Irvin
Monte Irvin did not debut in the Major Leagues until age 30 and because of this played fewer than 775 games. This holds his career numbers down considerably; he has fewer than 750 hits, 500 RBI and 100 home runs. He earns the spot on the all-February team, ahead of players with better career numbers like Chick Hafey and Rondell White because Irvin’s debut at age 30 came in 1949, nearly as soon as he could if not for baseball’s segregation policy.
Irvin—who made five Negro League All-Star teams and hit a reported .358 over his Negro League career—was clearly ready for the Majors long before ’49, and any reasonable person would have to award him credit for that time.
Center Field: Cesar Cedeno
On the subject of players, like Santo, who are underappreciated, we come to Cesar Cedeno. Cedeno was the victim of his home park, one which made his actual performance appear far less than it was. At age 21, for example, in 1972, Cedeno put up a total line of .320/.385/.537 in Houston’s Astrodome. He finished sixth in the MVP voting. The third place finisher was Pittsburgh’s Willie Stargell, who hit .293/.373/.558 at Three Rivers Stadium.
In raw terms, Cedeno’s OPS was nine points lower. If one adjusts for their home parks, however, and puts Stargell into the Astrodome his line drops to .291/.371/.551, identical OPS to Cedeno with a batting average nearly 30 points less.
Right Field: Hank Aaron
What is there to say about Aaron that you don’t already know? Outside of Barry Bonds, no one has ever hit more home runs. (And inside of Barry Bonds, as Groucho Marx almost said, it is too dark to hit home runs.) If not for Babe Ruth, Hammerin’ Hank could lay claim to being the best right fielder of all-time. For this team though, he and Wagner form a tremendous one-two punch, the best seen on any month team thus far.
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| Just Verlander, climbing the list of February greats (Icon/SMI) |
Starting Pitchers: Pete Alexander, Wilbur Cooper, Wes Ferrell, Herb Pennock, Justin Verlander
Yikes, that is some drop from staff ace down to the rest of the staff. Of course, when one is discussing a pitcher as great as Alexander—who is arguably a top five starter of all-time—there will be inevitably be a slump in quality. None of which is speak ill of Wilbur Cooper and his cohorts. For his part, Cooper won 216 games pitching primarily for the Pirates in the teens and early ‘20s. Wes Ferrell could not match that total for victories; he won 193 over his career, but made up substantial value with his bat: he was a lifetime .280 hitter and was a greater than two WAR player with the bat alone in 1935.
Herb Pennock is actually second all-time in February wins, behind Alexander. Most of Pennock’s 241 wins came after age 30. Already 29, and owner of a 77-72 lifetime record, the Knight of Kennett Square was traded to the Yankees in 1923 and proceeded to go 164-90 for the rest of his career.
Verlander is a bit of an unusual choice. Though several February pitchers had better careers, a peak does count for something and Verlander’s last three years (averaging 238 IP with a 140 ERA+) are pretty impressive. Moreover, Verlander is still on the “right” side of 30, and while pitchers are always dangerous to predict, it seems a strong bet that by the time his career is over, this spot will be his without question.
Relief Pitcher: Dan Quisenberry
These days, I suspect Quisenberry is remembered as much for his wit (I found a delivery in my flaw…Natural grass is a wonderful thing for little bugs and sinkerball pitchers, etc.) and his tragic early death at age 45, as he is for his pitching. That’s too bad. At his absolute best, “Quiz” was a masterful reliever in what might be roughly called the Mariano Rivera Model of Relief Pitching: force the other guys to beat you. That is, no walks, no home runs, make them string together a bunch of hits to beat you. That earned him his place on the February team.
(The other way to do it is what might be called the Billy Wagner Model of Relief Pitching: giving up the occasion—or more than occasional—walk or home run, but covering your sins with a huge number of strikeouts.)
Manager: Pat Moran
February, if we’re being honest, is a little shallow in the managerial department. Nonetheless, one could do far worse than Pat Moran. Moran’s greatest gift was apparently his leadership in his first season. First taking over the Phillies in 1915, who finished 74-80 the year before, Moran led them to a 90-62 record and the National League pennant. The Phillies would finish second the next two years, before Moran lost his job after a 55-68 year in 1918.
Taking over the Cincinnati Reds the next season, Moran again led a turnaround, taking the Reds, who finished 68-60 the year prior, to a 96-44 record and a trip to the World Series. The Reds’ victory in that World Series, is, of course, somewhat tainted by the “Black Sox” scandal, but Moran nonetheless led his team to victory.
For his career, Moran finished with 748 wins and a .561 winning percentage—the latter number higher than that of names like Bobby Cox, Miller Huggins and Sparky Anderson.
Questions, comments and thinly veiled threats can be mailed to Richard on the back of a twenty dollar bill or e-mailed to him at RichardBarbieri@yahoo.com
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We will, we will (mock) you
by Nick FlederFebruary 02, 2012
Nick Fleder has been a die-hard Yankee fan since birth and has played fantasy baseball obsessively since around the age of ten. He can be reached for all inquiries or comments at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). You can ask him any baseball or fantasy baseball related questions on Twitter: @fishfle
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How are wins, attendance and payroll all related?
by Dan LependorfFebruary 02, 2012
"...there are rich teams and there are poor teams. Then there's fifty feet of crap. And then there's us." — Moneyball (2011)
The release of Moneyball helped bring baseball economics into the mainstream. Obviously, given the subject matter, a lot of the attention has been centered on the plight of the small-market team, and how small-market general managers need to be smarter to survive. A common refrain I hear is that small-market teams are often pulled into a death spiral where payroll, attendance, and the quality of the team drag each other down, sinking the team into the gutter with no easy way out. And it intuitively makes sense. But is it really that simple? How strong are the links between those three variables?
Thankfully, testing the strength of the links is fairly easy. I created a data set comprised of all MLB teams between 2000-2011, consisting of team payroll at the beginning of the season (via USA Today), total attendance per game figures (via Baseball-Reference), and winning percentage. Sure, it seems intuitive that all three of the possible pair combinations between payroll, attendance, and wins would have noticeable correlations. More money should buy more wins, wins should go hand-in-hand with more people in seats, and attendance should mean more revenue dollars for the front office to play with. But instead of relying on conjecture, why not actually test it?
Before I continue, I need to touch on a very important point. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Two variables may be correlated, but the existence of a correlation does not mean that one of the variables caused the other. The percentage of US households with a television over the last 50 years correlates with the price of a gallon of milk, as both have increased over time, but the correlation certainly doesn't mean that the price of milk caused more US families to purchase TVs. Correlation can certainly point in the direction of causation, but proving causation is a rather tricky proposition that requires research in a controlled environment. So think of this as a loose suggestion, rather than anything that's set in stone.
Now, onto business. What conclusions can we draw?
By far, the biggest correlation is between payroll and attendance.
| Variable Pair | R2 |
|---|---|
| Payroll/Wins | 0.16 |
| Attendance/Wins | 0.27 |
| Payroll/Attendance | 0.54 |
The R2 between payroll and attendance is 0.54, which is a fancy, statistical way of saying that 54 percent of the variation in payroll can be attributed to changes in attendance. The R2 figures for payroll/wins and attendance/wins are far lower, indicating a lesser degree of correlation. It makes sense that the two other pairs should be related, but the links between those pairs don't seem to be quite as strong as payroll/attendance.
But is it possible to shed a little more light on the correlation? Sure, A and B share a correlation, but does A influence B more than B influences A? It's easy enough to test by looking at correlations between a set of variables and another set of variables from the previous year.
Again, before delving into this, I have to give a similar warning as above. Another common logical fallacy is to assume that if an event happened after a previous event, the first caused the second. After writing this article, I made myself a sandwich, but typing about baseball didn't cause me to get hungry. An event that follows another can certainly be the caused by the first event, but it's not necessarily true. So again, nothing here is set in stone as an emphatic "this is how it is" conclusion.
Attendance follows wins, not the other way around.
| Variable Pair | R2 |
|---|---|
| Attendance/Wins | 0.27 |
| Attendance/Last Year's Wins | 0.30 |
| Wins/Last Year's Attendance | 0.13 |
If we compare attendance with the previous year's wins, the R2 jumps up a little from the same-year correlation. But when reversed, when wins are compared to last year's attendance, the R2 falls to 0.13. This seems to suggest that a fanbase shows up in larger numbers if the team is doing well, but the reverse effect of a team doing well because of a large fan base (more revenue from ticket sales) doesn't generally exist.
Payrolls expand after a team does well more often than the reverse.
| Variable Pair | R2 |
|---|---|
| Payroll/Wins | 0.16 |
| Payroll/Last Year's Wins | 0.25 |
| Wins/Last Year's Payroll | 0.12 |
Again, we see an R2 change as these variables are moved around in time. This indicates that teams generally expand payroll to push a talented team over the edge, instead of using payroll to give a bad team a talent spike. Nothing surprising here, but it's nice to have it in black and white numbers.
Payroll and attendance are far "stickier" than wins.
| Variable Pair | R2 |
|---|---|
| Payroll/Last Year's Payroll | 0.83 |
| Attendance/Last Year's Attendance | 0.80 |
| Wins/Last Year's Wins | 0.31 |
For this set, I ran a correlation analysis between each variable and it's value in the previous year. (To borrow a term from economics, a variable is called "sticky" when it isn't very susceptible to change over time.) The year-to-year correlations between payroll and attendance are extremely high, whereas wins are much more volatile.
So what does it all mean, as far as small-market teams? Having a healthy fan base and a strong payroll is extremely important for the health of a franchise. Wins are volatile, but payroll and attendance will stick around for a while. Of course, the problem is that wins lead to payroll and attendance, so there seems to be truth in the death spiral idea after all. It's also interesting to note that the correlation between payroll and wins isn't nearly as strong as one might expect. An R2 of only 0.16 is absolutely tiny, indicating a relationship that is far from ironclad. (That's your cue to gloat or sulk, Rays and Cubs fans.)
References and Resources
- USA Today MLB Salary Database
- Baseball-Reference Attendance Database
- My data set, with payroll, attendance, and win percentage figures from 2000-2011.
Dan can be contacted here (email) or here (twitter). He welcomes all comments, even offers for cheap male enhancement pills and winnings from lotteries he didn't realize he had entered.
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2012 Fantasy Price Guides
by Greg TamerFebruary 02, 2012
Greg Tamer is the Manager of THT Forecasts. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions via e-mail.
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The Hardball Times
2012 Players Comments
by Greg TamerFebruary 02, 2012
Greg Tamer is the Manager of THT Forecasts. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions via e-mail.
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Are you mocking me?
by Derek AmbrosinoFebruary 01, 2012
Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com.
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Why Oliver Loves Yu
by Brian CartwrightFebruary 01, 2012
WAR ERA WHIP W L IP H HR BB SO HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 6.2 2.57 0.97 16 4 185 138 8 41 198 0.4 2.0 9.6
It looks like Yu broke Oliver. That's Yu Darvish; Oliver is the engine of The Hardball Times Forecasts. It's not the first time it's happened, but when a player so dominates his non-major league competition that that his derived major league true talent exceeds generally accepted norms, it offers an opportunity to examine the system and make some changes for the better.
Darvish's performance against batters in Nippon Professional Baseball, the world's second best professional league, is indeed mind-boggling: consistently low hits, home runs and walks, with more than a strikeout an inning.
Patrick Newman of npbtracker shows pitch type, velocity and usage rate for pitchers in that league. This past year, Darvish's fastball sat at 94 to 95 mph, with a slider in the low 80s, and a high 80s change-up. He also mixes in a low 90s cut fastball, forkball, shuuto and slow curve.
Newman also pointed me to Pro Yakyu Nuru Data Okijyo from which I was able to get Darvish's ground ball rates.
Year Age ERA W L IP H HR BB SO GB% 2007 20 1.82 15 5 208 123 9 49 210 59.9 2008 21 1.88 16 4 201 136 11 44 208 57.8 2009 22 1.73 15 5 182 118 9 45 167 59.2 2010 23 1.78 12 8 202 158 5 47 222 57.4 2011 24 1.44 18 6 232 156 5 36 276 60.0
Still the question remains, how accurately can that performance be projected into a major league equivalent? The standard process is to find as many players as possible who have played in both leagues, comparing their performance, as a group, in both situations.
If, for example, starting pitchers might translate differently from relievers, players can be divided into different groups that better fit their role and profile, but at the risk of having the comparisons based on smaller, and thus less reliable, sample sizes.
Oliver's Japanese translations are based on the performances of 260 pitchers who have performed on both sides of the Pacific from 1998 to 2011. Of these, 185 have been North American players who have gone to Japan, with 75 Japanese pitchers coming here, but only 28 of those 75 appearing in the major leagues. Since 1998, only five pitchers who were starters in Japan were given starting roles in the majors.
Oliver is rule based. Given a supply of play by play and seasonal data, I write code that describes how different parts of the data relate to one another. If I believe Darvish's translations are too strong, adjusting the code will also affect every other Japanese pitcher. Changes must be made in a way that balances the performances of all in the group. There did appear to be differences in whether the pitcher started his career in North America or Japan, and whether he was a starter or a reliever. After adjustments were made, Darvish's projection hardly budged.
With a projected 2.57 ERA, give or take a few tenths, Oliver is putting Darvish ahead of every current major league starting pitcher. The Texas Rangers were willing to commit $111 million dollars over the next six years to procure his services, but can he realistically be expected to out-perform this projected list of 2012's top 15 starting pitchers?
ERA Name 2.75 Clayton Kershaw 2.79 Stephen Strasburg 2.88 Justin Verlander 2.97 Roy Halladay 3.05 Cliff Lee 3.05 Josh Johnson 3.15 Matt Cain 3.16 Jered Weaver 3.17 Felix Hernandez 3.25 Ian Kennedy 3.25 Mat Latos 3.25 Adam Wainwright 3.26 Cole Hamels 3.28 Tim Lincecum 3.33 Michael Pineda
Let's look at how Oliver's past projections for Japanese starting pitchers compare to their actual performances. I will note that the major league performance is a weighted mean of the player's first three seasons in the majors, with the first season weighted at 1.0, the second 0.7 and the third 0.5. This is the reverse ordering of how past seasons are used to generate the projections. No minor league data are included. Also, the projected ERA is based on the expected wOBA allowed, while the major league ERA is the actual, and not park adjusted.
Kei Igawa Size ERA BH% HR% BB% SO% Projection 1788 3.89 0.297 0.046 0.072 0.218 MLB 1st 3 years 330 6.54 0.317 0.064 0.109 0.161
Igawa was signed by the Yankees in 2007 and was expected to provide an above-average numbers of strikeouts, although accompanied by a few extra home runs. Maybe the pressure of working for George Steinbrenner was too much; Igawa allowed far too many walks and long balls and lasted only 12 starts that year and one the next before returning to Japan.
Kaz Ishii Size ERA BH% HR% BB% SO% Projection 1547 3.96 0.284 0.048 0.119 0.246 MLB 1st 3 years 1525 4.25 0.279 0.042 0.144 0.191
Ishii signed with the Dodgers in 2002, spending three years in their rotation. After one more with the Mets, he also returned to Japan. Wild in Japan, he walked even more here and also underperformed his projected strikeout rate, although the ERA projection was fairly close.
Kenshin Kawakami Size ERA BH% HR% BB% SO% Projection 1381 3.50 0.284 0.044 0.046 0.205 MLB 1st 3 years 943 4.22 0.295 0.032 0.071 0.157
Kawakami joined the Braves in 2009 and had a respectable 3.86 ERA, but suffered through a 1-10, 5.15 year in 2010, then spent the entire 2011 season in the minors. He walked more and struck out fewer than projected (I'm beginning to notice a pattern).
Hiroki Kuroda Size ERA BH% HR% BB% SO% Projection 1685 3.54 0.278 0.037 0.048 0.167 MLB 1st 3 Years 1520 3.65 0.283 0.025 0.045 0.170
Kuroda delivered four quality season from 2008 to 2011 for the Dodgers, almost exactly matching his projection, and just signed a 1 year, $10 million deal with the Yankees.
Daisuke Matsuzaka Size ERA BH% HR% BB% SO% Projection 1630 2.77 0.273 0.030 0.061 0.245 MLB 1st 3 years 1517 4.01 0.295 0.039 0.105 0.221
The Japanese import everyone loves to hate, Matsuzaka did have two solid seasons, in 2007 and 2008, for the Red Sox, but injuries have kept him sidelined and/or ineffective for the past three years. Showing fine control his last two years in Japan, he's issued an above-average numbers of walks in the majors.
Hideki Irabu Size ERA BH% HR% BB% SO% Projection 1658 3.19 0.281 0.028 0.100 0.258 MLB 1st 3 years 1125 4.94 0.283 0.058 0.085 0.187 Hideo Nomo Size ERA BH% HR% BB% SO% Projection 1707 4.40 0.291 0.040 0.157 0.243 MLB 1st 3 years 1884 3.16 0.269 0.035 0.094 0.275 Colby Lewis Size ERA BH% HR% BB% SO% Projection 1479 3.26 0.302 0.034 0.039 0.230 MLB 1st 3 years 1431 4.03 0.273 0.046 0.072 0.220
I looked at three more pitchers - Hideo Nomo and Hideki Irabu from the 1990s, and Colby Lewis, who after never experiencing any success in the majors spent 2008 and 2009 in Japan before returning the past two years with the Rangers.
Irabu issued fewer walks but also fewer strikeouts than expected, and couldn't avoid the long ball. Nomo was very wild in Japan but pitched much better than expected in the major leagues. Lewis' strikeout rates were as expected, but his walks jumped up.
Hisanori Takahashi Size ERA BH% HR% BB% SO% Projection 1355 4.27 0.292 0.047 0.066 0.175 MLB 1st 3 Years 713 3.60 0.294 0.037 0.068 0.215 Ken Takahashi Size ERA BH% HR% BB% SO% Projection 940 5.28 0.293 0.052 0.088 0.133 MLB 1st 3 Years 116 2.96 0.280 0.026 0.113 0.200 Koji Uehara Size ERA BH% HR% BB% SO% Projection 872 3.65 0.290 0.050 0.037 0.201 MLB 1st 3 years 522 3.34 0.282 0.043 0.036 0.248 Keiichi Yabu Size ERA BH% HR% BB% SO% Projection 1030 4.30 0.284 0.041 0.076 0.149 MLB 1st 3 years 262 4.50 0.330 0.033 0.089 0.170
These last four were all primarily starting pitchers in Japan, but did most or all of their major league pitching out of the bullpen. All showed better-than-expected strikeout rates, with Uehara almost doubling his rate after the Orioles removed him from the rotation.
It is known that on average pitchers perform better out of the bullpen. Tango calls it his rule of 15: Home runs and walks down 15 percent, strikeouts up 15 percent. I believe I can improve the Japanese translation factors by adjusting the stats as starters and relievers to the same baseline before compiling sets of matched pairs. Where I have play-by-play data from Gameday I am able to tabulate how each pitcher has performed as a starter and as a reliever, which then needs to be regressed to the standard splits. However, the available seasonal level stats from Japan do not offer this breakdown. The number of innings pitched as a starter and reliever can be estimated, but the Japanese leagues have not published games started for the past three seasons.
The records for the eight starting pitchers above suggest that the translation factors currently being used by Oliver are too generous: As a group, the observed major league performances of the eight compared to their projections were 0.99 for base hits (BABIP), 1.11 for home runs, 1.24 for walks and 0.91 for strikeouts. But, how much more should we trust the record of eight starting pitchers in the majors compared to the 75 Japanese pitchers who have pitched in the minors and majors over the past 13 seasons? How much different should we expect them to be from the 185 pitchers who have left here for Japan?
Yu Darvish Size ERA BH% HR% BB% SO% Projection 1799 2.57 0.280 0.019 0.058 0.272 Adjusted 0.278 0.021 0.071 0.248
The first line is Darvish's current Oliver projection, while the second shows the rate stats adjusted for those eight starters (still very good).
These are Darvish's top comparables using his current projection—a higher ERA than 2.57, but the top five still puts him right at the top with Kershaw and Strasburg, while a larger sample of comps still rates high enough to rank him fifth of sixth in the major leagues.
Rank Name Season ERA BH% HR% BB% SO%
1 Martinez, Pedro 2004 2.55 0.288 0.020 0.056 0.285
2 Verlander, Justin 2012 2.87 0.281 0.033 0.064 0.263
3 Johnson, Randy 2005 2.96 0.290 0.034 0.054 0.272
4 Santana, Johan 2007 2.78 0.274 0.039 0.056 0.269
5 Kershaw, Clayton 2012 2.75 0.284 0.024 0.078 0.274
6 Prior, Mark 2003 3.19 0.302 0.032 0.073 0.278
7 Schmidt, Jason 2004 2.97 0.283 0.028 0.074 0.247
8 Peavy, Jake 2008 3.47 0.304 0.034 0.063 0.254
9 Greinke, Zack 2010 3.20 0.307 0.029 0.058 0.253
10 Lincecum, Tim 2012 3.27 0.300 0.030 0.084 0.268
11 Schilling, Curt 2005 3.02 0.292 0.039 0.042 0.248
12 Matsuzaka, Daisuke 2008 3.29 0.283 0.038 0.072 0.243
13 Hamels, Cole 2008 3.52 0.290 0.043 0.070 0.246
14 Bedard, Erik 2008 3.39 0.303 0.031 0.079 0.250
Top 5 2.78 0.283 0.030 0.062 0.273
Top 10 3.00 0.291 0.030 0.066 0.266
All 3.09 0.292 0.033 0.066 0.261
Now using the adjusted projection. The composite ERA of the top five comps again puts Darvish fifth or sixth, while the larger list drops him closer to 15th.
Rank Name Season ERA BH% HR% BB% SO%
1 Schmidt, Jason 2004 2.97 0.283 0.028 0.074 0.247
2 Martinez, Pedro 2006 3.01 0.281 0.032 0.059 0.243
3 Matsuzaka, Daisuke 2008 3.29 0.283 0.038 0.072 0.243
4 Verlander, Justin 2012 2.87 0.281 0.033 0.064 0.263
5 Latos, Mat 2012 3.25 0.290 0.032 0.069 0.234
6 Hanson, Tommy 2012 3.43 0.285 0.036 0.072 0.233
7 Peavy, Jake 2010 3.40 0.298 0.034 0.076 0.243
8 Lester, Jon 2011 3.34 0.298 0.029 0.083 0.241
9 Hamels, Cole 2008 3.52 0.290 0.043 0.070 0.246
10 Kennedy, Ian 2012 3.24 0.277 0.036 0.071 0.226
11 Jimenez, Ubaldo 2012 3.49 0.295 0.024 0.091 0.240
12 Scherzer, Max 2011 3.59 0.296 0.038 0.084 0.249
13 Kershaw, Clayton 2012 2.75 0.284 0.024 0.078 0.274
14 Bedard, Erik 2009 3.57 0.296 0.036 0.083 0.237
15 Beckett, Josh 2005 3.50 0.303 0.031 0.077 0.238
16 Santana, Johan 2009 3.37 0.286 0.043 0.059 0.235
Top 5 3.08 0.284 0.032 0.068 0.246
Top 10 3.23 0.287 0.034 0.071 0.242
All 3.29 0.289 0.033 0.074 0.243
For the final set of comparable projections, I used a defense independent approach, using only groundball, walk and strikeout rate. Assuming that major league baseball has a slightly lower rate of ground balls than the Nippon league, I found Darvish's top comps using a ground ball rate of 0.55, a walk rate of 0.071, and a strikeout rate of 0.248. There's no difference between the different sized groups, each with a composite ERA out of major league baseball's top 15, but much of the ERA difference between this and the previous sets of comps is in the home run rate, almost 50 percent higher here than in Oliver's projection.
Rank Name Season ERA GB% BH% HR% BB% SO%
1 Liriano, Francisco 2007 3.58 0.53 0.304 0.037 0.087 0.254
2 Hernandez, Felix 2011 3.16 0.54 0.287 0.026 0.071 0.219
3 Burnett, A.J. 2008 3.81 0.55 0.295 0.037 0.082 0.217
4 Jimenez, Ubaldo 2011 3.18 0.52 0.284 0.020 0.097 0.240
5 Lester, Jon 2011 3.34 0.51 0.298 0.029 0.083 0.241
6 Wainwright, Adam 2011 3.12 0.51 0.295 0.028 0.061 0.226
7 Garcia, Jaime 2012 3.64 0.54 0.310 0.027 0.069 0.201
8 Carpenter, Chris 2006 3.27 0.54 0.292 0.031 0.052 0.205
9 Zambrano, Carlos 2006 3.23 0.51 0.276 0.023 0.088 0.215
10 Chacin, Jhoulys 2012 3.61 0.52 0.271 0.033 0.105 0.213
11 Halladay, Roy 2012 2.96 0.52 0.305 0.024 0.034 0.216
12 Wilson, C.J. 2012 3.47 0.51 0.290 0.024 0.089 0.212
Top 5 3.41 0.53 0.294 0.030 0.084 0.234
Top 10 3.39 0.53 0.291 0.029 0.079 0.223
All 3.36 0.53 0.292 0.028 0.076 0.221
Yu Darvish is clearly a very talented pitcher, enough that the Texas Rangers were willing to put $51 million down and $60 million over the next six years to have him in their starting rotation. Just how well his future major league performances can be projected is a work of art, with different available methods where even small changes in estimated base hits allowed can vary the ERA estimate by a few tenths. Oliver has had a good record so far, such as with Stephen Strasburg and Ian Kennedy. However, players have some amount of natural variance each year as well as changes in their true talent.
Examining several sets of comparable pitchers shows an expected ERA for Darvish anywhere from 2.78 to 3.40, which is from excellent down to merely very good, but no recent major league pitchers have the combination of Darvish's expected home runs, walks and strikeouts. Looking at those comparables and Darvish’s pitch metrics give me a personal opinion: I would compare him to Felix Hernandez with more strikeouts or Ubaldo Jimenez with fewer walks.
Meanwhile, as these customized estimates all gave a higher ERA projection than Oliver, I’ll retreat to my office, where first things on the drawing board are incorporating ground ball rates to give regression means for base hit and home run rates, and separately consider pitching as a starter and reliever.
Brian got his start in amateur baseball way back in the 1970's as the statistician for his local college summer league in Johnstown, Pa, which also hosts the annual All-American Amateur Baseball Association. A longtime APBA and Strat-o-Matic player, he still tends to look at everything as a simulation. He has also written for StatSpeak and Fangraphs, was runnerup in the Baseball Prospectus Idol competition, and has consulted for a major league team. You can contact him at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).
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The Hardball Times
Reflections after a long offseason
by Chris LundFebruary 01, 2012
"What a team. What a ride. The Cardinals are world champs in 2011."
And that was that. Eight months of projections, pontification and paying attention for a criminal number of hours boiled down to the St. Louis Cardinals and that damn squirrel taking a world championship.
For most of us, the chase ended well before then. We bid farewell to those who share our cheers and jeers in our favorite section of the diamond, those who haul beer around for the thirstiest of fans, those who bring the game into our homes with their play-by-play and compelling (or otherwise) insights. Our little baseball families dispersed for another long, lonely winter spent staring at coutndowns that remind of us the exhausting wait until we're reunited once again.
Sure, there were little glimmers of hope. A round of winter meeting rumors sparked a phone conversation about whether or not you would fill that elusive leadoff spot. A division rival bolsters its rotation in exchange for a bevy of prospects. Sure, you say, they may have the edge on us this year, but just wait until The Kid makes the leap. They won't have a prayer. Those damn Yankees have been so quiet. They just have to be up to something, right?
It's natural, really. We can try to fill the void with football all we want, but it's just not the same. The weather, for one, is no fun at all. You can't settle into a spot in the stands underneath the sun the way you want to. Not to mention there is no majesty in a bowl stadium. Where are the towering walls, waterfalls and patterns cut in to the grass? The peanut vendors? Well, they just have it all wrong.
And don't even try watching on television, unless you're a fan of people simultaneously yelling at each other and laughing. It only makes you want the summer to return that much more.
Now we've reached that part of the year where the resolutions begin. This will be the year where you get out to the park more. You're planning the weekend road trips to the Wrigley Fields and Fenway Parks of the world. A picture next to the Babe Ruth monument would make a nice little mantlepiece. Maybe you'll head out west and occupy a kayak in the middle of McCovey Cove. Perhaps it'll be that trip to Cooperstown you've always wanted to take.
At the very least you know you could do just about whatever you want with any two teams and be just fine. It may not have the familiar feel of your home park with your seats and your friends and your colors, but it doesn't take away from how badly you would love to check it off your list.
It's simply a matter of counting down the days. The lure of the Grapefruit League and the Cactus League is slowly building. Sure, those of us not lucky enough to make it down in person won't be as enamored as those who are, but it will be refreshing to see a pitcher's windup on television or hear the crack of the bat on the radio after so much waiting.
I know I'm looking forward to that walk up to the box office on Opening Day, standing amongst all of those people I've stood with for so many years now and waiting to get into the ballpark. I'll go in with my premeditated refusal to give in to the money pit that is criminally overpriced beer and popcorn, but I'll likely crack under the pressure of being asked whether or not I would like some.
From there I will no doubt be enamored with this season's carefully selected theme song and exhilarating video, and for a moment I'll think, "This feels like the year." Then the teams will take the field, and I'll be thrust back into the throngs of reason. Scoring games, pitch counts, and bullpen matchups once again become my daily thought process, and all will be right once again.
Until that day, my countdown reads: 18 days until pitchers and catchers report. The longest 18 days of the year.
References and Resources
Thanks to Joe Buck for the call that ended 2011 and started this story.
It should be noted that the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners will report in 11 days, not 18.
Chris is a writer-at-large and encourages you to talk baseball.
For further baseball discussion, you can follow him on twitter under @thechrislund or send him an e-mail at chris (dot) lund89 AT gmail (dot) com
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The Hardball Times
The virtual 1958-68 Giants, Reds, and Cardinals (Part 9: 1965-66)
by Steve TrederFebruary 01, 2012
We've completed eight seasons of triangulated time travel:
1957-58
1958-59
1959-60
1960-61
1961-62
1962-63
1963-64
1964-65
The pinnacle of the National League standings has been the site of a sustained heavyweight slugfest between our Giants and Reds, with each so far bagging three-and-a-half pennants and coming very close nearly every time the other wins it. But for our Cardinals, it's been eight long years of not-good-enough. Could this be the year this persistent dynamic is finally altered?
Giants: Actual Reds: Actual Cardinals: Actual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1958 80 74 3 727 698 76 78 4 695 623 72 82 5T 619 704
1959 83 71 3 705 613 74 80 5T 764 738 71 83 7 641 725
1960 79 75 5 671 631 67 87 6 640 692 86 68 3 639 616
1961 85 69 3 773 655 93 61 1 710 653 80 74 5 703 668
1962 103 62 1 878 690 98 64 3 802 685 84 78 6 774 664
1963 88 74 3 725 641 86 76 5 648 594 93 69 2 747 628
1964 90 72 4 656 587 92 70 2T 660 566 93 69 1 715 652
1965 95 67 2 682 593 89 73 4 825 704 80 81 7 707 674
Giants: Virtual Reds: Virtual Cardinals: Virtual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1958 83 71 2T 747 692 73 81 5 683 637 77 77 4 640 677
1959 87 67 1T 737 615 87 67 1T 802 662 84 70 4 725 685
1960 93 61 1 709 561 76 78 6 705 666 86 68 4 661 632
1961 88 66 2 787 648 106 48 1 813 629 72 82 6 689 724
1962 103 59 1 800 632 101 61 2T 779 663 84 78 6 809 703
1963 97 65 3 726 578 100 62 1 704 540 80 82 6 664 668
1964 100 62 2 726 576 101 61 1 689 533 87 75 4 662 657
1965 99 63 1 697 587 98 64 2 843 646 85 76 5 692 622The 1965-66 offseason: Actual deals we will make
Nov. 29, 1965: The Cincinnati Reds drafted pitcher Don Nottebart from the Houston Astros in the 1965 Rule 5 draft.
Nov. 29, 1965: The St. Louis Cardinals drafted pitcher Joe Hoerner from the Houston Astros in the 1965 Rule 5 draft.
We haven’t generally been listing the Rule 5 picks in this series, because they’re usually quite unimpactful.
But both of these guys are better talents than one usually finds available in Rule 5 drafts, and both our Reds and our Cardinals will snap them up as eagerly as their real-life counterparts. (The fact that both Nottebart and Hoerner were left off the Houston 40-man roster that fall may suggest some disarray in the Astros’ front office as GM Paul Richards and owner Roy Hofheinz quarreled, leading to the Wizard of Waxahachie’s you-can’t-fire-me-I-quit departure in December.)
Nov. 29, 1965: The San Francisco Giants drafted second baseman Don Mason from the Washington Senators in the 1965 Rule 5 draft.
And then there’s this selection. It isn’t odd on its face, as Mason is an intriguing prospect, a 20-year-old left-handed-batting second baseman who’s hit .285 with 18 homers in Class A in 1965.
But the Giants have already devoted a "bonus baby" investment to Bob Schroder, a left-handed-batting second baseman, and been forced to commit a major-league roster spot to an unproductive Schroder in 1965. Keeping Mason will require doing the same for this left-handed-batting second baseman in 1966, and while left-handed-batting second basemen are pretty cool, just how far in this direction is it prudent for a team to go?
Our Giants will draft Mason; at this point in the process there’s no downside. But in spring training, we’ll make him prove to us that he can pull his weight on the full-season roster or we’ll relinquish him.
The 1965-66 offseason: Actual deals we will not make
Oct. 20, 1965: The St. Louis Cardinals traded third baseman Ken Boyer to the New York Mets for pitcher Al Jackson and third baseman Charley Smith.
Oct. 27, 1965: The St. Louis Cardinals traded first baseman Bill White, shortstop Dick Groat, and catcher Bob Uecker to the Philadelphia Phillies for outfielder Alex Johnson, catcher Pat Corrales, and pitcher Art Mahaffey.
Our Cardinals don’t have Boyer, White, or Groat, so they can’t pull off this dramatic infield demolition engineered by St. Louis GM Bob Howsam.
Dec. 9, 1965: The Cincinnati Reds traded outfielder Frank Robinson to the Baltimore Orioles for pitchers Milt Pappas and Jack Baldschun and outfielder Dick Simpson.
Well, one might put it this way:
The Big One; a deal so notorious that more than 40 years later it remains high on everyone’s short list of All-time Bad Trades.While our version of the Reds has some pitching concerns, we’re nowhere close to being tempted to doing something like this.
We’ve discussed before how clever a maneuver it was on the part of the Orioles. From the Reds’ point of view, the deal was prompted by Cincinnati Owner/GM Bill DeWitt’s concern that Robinson, his franchise player for a decade, was “an old 30” (along with a not-so-subtle undertone of discomfort with Robinson’s strong personality—read whatever racial implications into this you deem appropriate), as well as the opportunity to shore up the pitching staff following a season in which the Reds led the world in runs scored but finished fourth.
In such a circumstance, leveraging hitting surplus into pitching help was a fine strategy. But DeWitt, shall we say, whiffed on the execution: He guessed wrong in the estimation that decline was imminent for Robinson (strike one), he guessed wrong that the value garnered in this exchange was somewhere close to equivalent (strike two), and in any case he guessed wrong that Robinson’s contribution to the Reds—in terms of tangible play as well as intangible leadership—was indeed a surplus and not an essential (grab some pine).
The 1965-66 offseason: Deals we will invoke
Nov., 1965: The Cincinnati Reds purchased catcher Dave Ricketts from the St. Louis Cardinals.
With Ed Bailey appearing as though he's nearing the end, this switch-hitting backup catcher is more valuable to our Reds than to our Cardinals.
Dec. 1, 1965: The St. Louis Cardinals traded outfielder Matty Alou to the Pittsburgh Pirates for pitcher Joe Gibbon.
Actually, on this date the Pirates made this one with the Giants. Since it’s our Cards who have Alou, they’ll accept Pittsburgh’s offer of the lefty Gibbon, whose peripherals in 1965 were incomparably superior to his 4.51 ERA. (Even an eight-year-old scrutinizing Gibbon’s 1965 Strat-o-Matic card could figure that out.)
Dec. 2, 1965: The San Francisco Giants traded pitcher Bill Hands, outfielder Ollie Brown, and catcher Randy Hundley to the Chicago Cubs for pitcher Dick Ellsworth.
Actually, the Giants traded Hands and Hundley to the Cubs for pitcher Lindy McDaniel and outfielder Don Landrum. But in our scenario, the Cubs don’t have McDaniel (our Cards do, and they aren’t parting with him), and we’re not sure if the Cubs have Landrum, but it doesn’t matter because our Giants don’t want him.
But as in reality, in our scenario the Cubs at this point would be struggling (even moreso than in reality), quite ready to deal marketable assets in return for high-potential young talent. This offer our Giants present is that for sure, and it’s hefty enough to plausibly command the durable, still-young southpaw Ellsworth, who’d been just so-so in 1964 and ’65 after busting out with a tremendous year in ’63.
Much as our Giants like Hands, Brown, and Hundley, our roster is so deep that the only one we have a spot for is Hands. And the resulting upgrade from Hands to Ellsworth in our starting rotation is worth this considerable price.
Dec., 1965: The San Francisco Giants traded outfielder-infielder Cap Peterson to the Washington Senators for outfielder Fred Valentine.
Valentine is a toolsy switch-hitting journeyman, but at the age of almost-31 is the type of player the still-struggling Senators would surrender for the right offer. Our Giants haven’t been able to find major league room for Peterson, but he’s a line-drive hitter with defensive versatility, and he’s just 23.
April, 1966: The San Francisco Giants returned infielder Don Mason (earlier draft pick) to the Washington Senators.
Yeah, we’re just not ready for that commitment. It isn’t you, Don, it’s us.
April, 1966: The Cincinnati Reds traded pitcher Joe Nuxhall to the Atlanta Braves for pitcher Hank Fischer.
We're big fans of Nuxhall, who’s given us back-to-back-to-back fine years as a long reliever-spot starter in his Cincinnati career renaissance. But for 1966, he’s shaking out as our sixth left-handed pitcher, and on a staff of 10, that’s really not advisable. So we’ll exchange him for the right-hander Fischer, who isn’t as good, but is a decade younger.
April, 1966: The St. Louis Cardinals sold pitcher Bill Henry to the Philadelphia Phillies.
April, 1966: The Cincinnati Reds sold infielder Chico Ruiz to the Minnesota Twins.
End-of-spring training roster culling.
The 1966 season: Actual deals we will make
Aug. 15, 1966: The Cincinnati Reds traded pitcher Hank Fischer to the Boston Red Sox for players to be named later and cash. (On Dec. 15, 1966, the Red Sox sent pitchers Dick Stigman and Rollie Sheldon to the Reds, completing the deal.)
Fischer does poorly in Cincinnati, and like the actual Reds, we’ll scrap him in August. The price the Red Sox are willing to pay is generous; both Stigman and Sheldon have fallen on hard times, but each is young enough to have an Act III yet to play.
The 1966 season: Actual deals we will not make
May 8, 1966: The San Francisco Giants traded first baseman-outfielder Orlando Cepeda to the St. Louis Cardinals for pitcher Ray Sadecki.
Mmm-hmm. As we put it in Blockbusters:
Branch Rickey's famous trading maxim was, "It's better to trade a player a year too soon than a year too late." That's sound wisdom, and a variant on it might be, "It's better to trade a player when his market value is high than when his market value is low." Buy low/sell high, in other words. Well, the Giants spectacularly botched this one in that regard.Our Giants won’t go there.
Cepeda had been a superstar, of course, but he was coming off a season lost to major knee surgery, and it wasn't yet clear just how fully he'd regain his form, so the Giants went ahead and dealt him while that doubt was holding his market value way down. Therefore, all they could get for him was Sadecki, who at just 25 was already in his seventh big-league season but had yet to establish himself as even so much as a consistent, dependable league-average starter.
May 11, 1966: The San Francisco Giants sold infielder Dick Schofield to the New York Yankees.
Like the actual Giants, we’ve been frustrated by Schofield’s offensive woes. But not frustrated enough to just cut him loose; we still see him contributing in a utility role.
May 20, 1966: The Cincinnati Reds sold pitcher Gerry Arrigo to the New York Mets.
Our Reds don’t have Arrigo. (And our Reds do still have Cesar Tovar.)
June 15, 1966: The Cincinnati Reds traded pitcher Joey Jay to the Atlanta Braves for pitcher Hank Fischer.
This is how the Reds actually acquired Fischer.
Aug. 16, 1966: The Cincinnati Reds purchased pitcher Gerry Arrigo from the New York Mets.
Interestingly, Cesar Tovar was not being sold and re-sold every three months in 1966.
The 1966 season: Deals we will invoke
May, 1966: The St. Louis Cardinals sold pitcher Joe Gibbon to the Washington Senators.
We still like Gibbon, but our Cards have not one but two emerging southpaws this year that will squeeze him off our staff at mid-May cut-down time.
1966 season results
Giants
We won the pennant in 1965, but that was despite three nagging problems. We have plans to address all three.
Problem No. 1 was the absence of Cepeda, and the strain that put on run production. He’s back for 1966 (though just how completely, we’ll have to find out) and ready to reclaim left field. We could move Jim Ray Hart, who handled left in Cepeda’s stead, back to right field, but that would deprive young Jose Cardenal of playing time, and he’s a multi-faceted talent we want to try to develop.
So instead, we’ll make Hart our primary third baseman (in the minors, he played mostly third, and—how about this—shortstop), easing 35-year-old Ken Boyer into a part-time role.
The second issue was the starting rotation behind Juan Marichal. We’re beefing that up with the addition of Ellsworth, and we think the enigmatic Gaylord Perry is capable of better than he delivered in 1965.
And problem No. 3 was twin offensive sinkholes in the middle infield. We’re dealing with that by sliding young Hal Lanier from second base over to shortstop, where he’ll share the position with Schofield, and we anticipate pinch-hitting liberally at this spot in the order.
At second base, we’ll introduce 22-year-old rookie Tito Fuentes, who, though he’s just a little guy, is coming off a monster Triple-A season in which he slugged .543 while playing his home games in a pitchers’ park, in a league that slugged .386.
1966 San Francisco Giants Won 106 Lost 55 Finished 1st
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B W. McCovey* 28 150 502 85 148 26 6 36 96 76 100 .295 .391 .586 .977 163
2B T. Fuentes 22 133 487 57 127 19 3 8 36 8 51 .261 .272 .361 .633 72
SS H. Lanier 23 134 344 28 79 11 2 2 28 12 37 .230 .251 .291 .541 48
3B-OF J. Hart 24 156 578 88 165 23 4 33 93 48 75 .285 .341 .510 .852 129
RF-CF J. Cardenal 22 128 374 54 108 11 3 11 32 21 45 .289 .328 .422 .750 104
CF W. Mays 35 152 552 99 159 29 4 37 103 70 81 .288 .367 .556 .923 149
LF-1B O. Cepeda 28 137 456 62 136 24 0 21 74 36 70 .298 .360 .489 .849 130
C T. Haller* 29 137 455 72 109 18 2 26 65 51 72 .240 .320 .459 .780 111
3B-1B K. Boyer 35 91 273 34 77 15 1 8 34 19 33 .282 .324 .432 .757 105
SS D. Schofield# 31 80 194 26 42 3 0 0 8 24 24 .216 .303 .232 .535 49
OF-1B W. Bond* 28 81 181 20 41 5 1 6 25 14 25 .227 .290 .365 .655 78
OF F. Valentine# 31 73 169 31 47 10 3 5 20 14 22 .278 .339 .462 .800 117
IF A. Rodgers 31 54 137 16 32 6 0 2 13 18 27 .234 .314 .321 .636 75
OF J. Alou 24 66 148 16 38 3 0 0 8 3 10 .257 .271 .277 .548 51
C B. Barton 24 43 91 1 16 2 1 0 3 5 5 .176 .216 .220 .436 20
C T. Talton* 27 37 53 8 18 3 1 3 6 1 5 .340 .364 .604 .967 159
IF R. Peña 26 21 40 3 8 1 0 0 3 3 7 .200 .256 .225 .481 33
C J. Orsino 28 14 23 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 7 .174 .174 .217 .391 6
Others 75 4 17 0 1 1 3 2 10 .227 .241 .293 .534 45
Pitchers 432 34 80 10 3 3 36 17 142 .184 .208 .240 .448 22
Total 5564 739 1451 220 35 202 686 442 848 .261 .316 .422 .737 100
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
J. Marichal 28 37 36 25 26 5 0 307 228 88 76 32 36 222 2.23 167
G. Perry 27 36 35 13 22 7 0 256 242 92 85 15 40 201 2.99 125
B. Bolin 27 36 34 10 13 9 1 224 174 85 72 25 70 143 2.89 129
D. Ellsworth* 26 31 29 7 8 9 0 179 204 92 72 17 33 104 3.62 103
D. LeMay* 27 17 15 2 2 2 0 66 84 43 36 12 28 27 4.91 76
B. Garibaldi 24 11 6 1 3 2 0 44 55 26 22 3 17 23 4.50 83
D. McMahon 36 61 0 0 10 5 7 90 76 34 27 8 39 62 2.70 138
B. O'Dell* 33 59 0 0 5 3 3 102 104 35 30 5 38 62 2.65 141
S. Miller 38 51 0 0 9 4 15 92 71 30 26 5 20 66 2.54 147
F. Linzy 25 42 2 0 6 7 4 86 92 34 28 4 29 49 2.93 127
Others 4 0 2 2 0 31 34 22 19 3 19 20 5.52 68
Total 161 58 106 55 30 1477 1364 581 493 129 369 979 3.00 124
* Throws leftCepeda doesn't display peak form, but he’s very good. Hart proves able to handle third base (as had Cepeda several years ago), and Boyer is productive coming off the bench. Cardenal hits well, as does catcher Tom Haller. Willie Mays finally begins to show signs of slowing down, but he remains extremely good, and Willie McCovey is as productive as ever.Fuentes struggles with strike zone judgment but hits adequately. Our lineup overall is once again fearsome, leading the major leagues in home run production, blasting over 200 bombs for the fifth time in six years.
Ellsworth isn’t great, but he’s solid, and he fits in nicely as a southpaw fourth starter behind right-handers Bob Bolin (who’s excellent), Perry (who does bust out as a star), and Marichal (who’s utterly brilliant). Sophomore sinkerballer Frank Linzy, who worked as a starter as a midseason call-up in 1965, moves to the bullpen to replace Masanori Murakami (who’s returned to Japan) and completes a rock-solid, four-deep relief corps.
It’s an outstanding team without significant weakness. With an assist from Pythagoras, who allows us to outperform our projection by seven full games, we cruise to a glittering 106-55 record, tying the all-time franchise record for wins set way back in 1904.
In most seasons, that would be more than enough for a runaway pennant, but not this year. We do capture the flag, our fourth outright (plus one first-place tie) in nine seasons since coming West. But it turns out to be a magnificent squeaker of a race, and we're grateful for every last bit of that good Pythagorean fortune as we sweat it out.
Reds
We’ve made minimal changes to the roster that finished second by an eyelash in 1965. Ricketts is taking over as third-string catcher, and sophomore Tommy Helms beats out Chico Ruiz for one of the backup infielder spots. Nottebart and rookie Ted Davidson will join the bullpen.
1966 Cincinnati Reds Won 87 Lost 73 Finished 5th
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B B. White* 32 144 471 81 140 19 5 21 85 59 82 .297 .372 .493 .865 129
2B P. Rose# 25 156 654 107 205 38 5 16 70 37 61 .313 .347 .460 .807 114
SS L. Cardenas 27 144 454 52 116 20 3 16 65 36 70 .256 .307 .419 .725 92
3B-1B D. Johnson 27 128 404 66 104 20 2 19 65 31 70 .257 .309 .458 .766 102
RF F. Robinson 30 155 576 124 189 36 3 47 123 75 92 .328 .410 .646 1.056 177
CF V. Pinson* 27 156 618 77 178 35 6 16 76 33 83 .288 .323 .442 .765 102
LF T. Gonzalez* 29 132 384 58 114 21 4 7 40 25 61 .297 .342 .427 .769 105
C J. Edwards* 28 98 282 24 54 8 0 6 39 31 42 .191 .266 .284 .550 47
OF T. Harper 25 99 277 45 75 11 3 3 16 27 44 .271 .337 .365 .701 88
C J. Azcue 26 93 272 24 81 10 1 8 44 15 21 .298 .332 .430 .762 102
3B T. Perez 24 99 257 25 68 10 4 4 41 14 44 .265 .302 .381 .683 82
IF T. Helms 25 69 181 24 50 7 0 3 16 7 11 .276 .302 .365 .667 78
UT C. Tovar 25 67 116 14 30 5 2 1 10 8 14 .259 .302 .362 .664 77
C D. Ricketts# 30 46 75 7 20 2 1 0 5 3 3 .267 .288 .320 .608 62
LF J. Lynch* 35 64 56 5 12 2 0 1 6 4 11 .214 .267 .304 .570 52
Others 34 5 9 2 0 1 4 2 7 .265 .306 .412 .717 90
Pitchers 417 31 67 10 2 1 18 19 131 .161 .188 .203 .391 5
Total 5528 769 1512 256 41 170 723 426 847 .274 .323 .427 .750 99
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
C. Osteen* 26 39 38 9 18 12 0 252 260 101 97 11 70 141 3.46 114
J. Maloney 26 32 32 10 17 7 0 225 174 75 70 18 90 216 2.80 141
S. Ellis 25 37 32 6 12 14 0 199 201 120 115 31 71 140 5.20 76
J. O'Toole* 29 25 24 2 5 6 0 142 139 65 56 16 49 96 3.55 111
J. Jay 30 27 12 1 6 4 1 103 118 60 58 11 44 65 5.07 78
H. Fischer 26 29 12 0 2 8 0 86 108 52 49 5 30 47 5.13 77
D. Nottebart 30 59 1 0 5 4 12 111 97 45 38 11 43 69 3.08 128
B. McCool* 21 57 0 0 8 7 19 105 76 32 29 5 41 104 2.49 159
T. Davidson* 26 54 0 0 5 4 4 85 82 41 37 11 23 54 3.92 101
J. Pizarro* 29 34 9 1 8 4 3 89 109 54 49 13 33 43 4.96 80
D. Zanni 34 15 0 0 1 1 0 25 20 9 8 2 11 20 2.88 137
D. Osteen 23 13 0 0 0 2 1 15 26 21 20 3 9 17 12.00 33
Others 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 2 0 1 0 18.00 22
Total 160 29 87 73 40 1438 1413 677 628 137 515 1012 3.93 100
* Throws leftRobinson emphatically vindicates our decision to keep him by delivering perhaps his greatest year, leading the majors in home runs, runs scored, RBIs, slugging, and OPS. Our hitting encounters just one problem, an inexplicably terrible year from catcher Johnny Edwards, and while we aren’t the juggernaut we were in ’65, our offense is very good, scoring the most runs in the major leagues.On the mound, we get strong years from top starters Claude Osteen and Jim Maloney and ace reliever Billy McCool. But we also get a host of problems. Neither Fischer nor Jay are effective. Our sore-armed lefties of 1965, Jim O'Toole and Juan Pizarro, both avoid the DL this time, but neither is an ace like before, as O’Toole is so-so and Pizarro pretty bad.
But the worst problem is that young Sammy Ellis, a relief sensation as a rookie in 1964 and a 20-game winner as a sophomore in ’65, becomes extremely hittable this time around, his ERA ballooning well over 5.00.
The result is a Cincinnati team dropping to fifth place after finishing first or second for five straight years. It isn’t our Reds who challenge the Giants for the pennant this time.
Cardinals
Despite finishing in fifth in 1965, we liked what we were seeing at most positions and have made only a few alterations for ’66. Rookie left-hander Larry Jaster will compete for a spot in the starting rotation, and the Rule 5 pick Hoerner will claim a role in our bullpen.
There will be a big change in venue, as in 1966 St. Louis unveils brand-new, circular, state-of-the-art Busch Memorial Stadium.
1966 St. Louis Cardinals Won 105 Lost 57 Finished 2nd
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B L. Thomas* 30 114 275 26 62 5 1 6 29 24 30 .225 .294 .316 .610 70
2B J. Javier 29 140 414 35 95 12 5 6 35 23 57 .229 .267 .326 .593 64
SS-2B J. Buchek 24 123 358 32 85 13 5 6 36 29 90 .237 .289 .352 .641 78
3B M. Shannon 26 137 459 61 132 20 6 16 77 37 106 .288 .337 .462 .799 120
RF-1B F. Alou 31 154 633 94 211 31 7 24 92 23 48 .333 .365 .518 .883 143
CF C. Flood 28 152 563 77 150 19 5 9 61 23 45 .266 .295 .366 .661 83
LF L. Brock* 27 156 643 103 183 24 12 15 51 31 134 .285 .320 .429 .749 106
C T. McCarver* 24 146 516 64 143 18 13 11 64 34 36 .277 .321 .426 .748 106
1B-OF A. Shamsky* 24 96 257 37 63 8 1 16 42 35 52 .245 .330 .471 .801 120
SS D. Maxvill 27 112 263 17 64 9 2 0 18 25 41 .243 .307 .293 .600 68
1B-C D. Pavletich 27 83 235 28 70 14 2 8 36 18 39 .298 .348 .477 .824 127
3B-2B P. Gagliano 24 90 213 23 54 8 2 2 19 24 29 .254 .326 .338 .664 85
OF T. Savage 29 70 123 21 28 8 2 3 20 16 27 .228 .312 .398 .710 96
C B. Uecker 31 39 52 4 9 1 0 2 7 4 10 .173 .224 .308 .532 46
IF J. Williams 22 19 30 2 7 1 0 0 2 2 7 .233 .281 .267 .548 54
Others 94 9 20 6 1 1 8 7 13 .213 .272 .330 .602 67
Pitchers 410 34 68 14 1 4 26 15 154 .166 .182 .234 .416 15
Total 5538 667 1444 211 65 129 623 370 918 .261 .305 .392 .698 93
* Bats left
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
B. Gibson 30 35 35 20 24 9 0 280 210 90 76 20 78 225 2.44 148
L. Jackson 35 38 35 10 16 11 0 230 230 91 84 22 58 103 3.29 110
A. Jackson* 30 36 30 9 16 10 0 210 197 72 57 16 41 82 2.44 148
L. Jaster* 22 23 21 6 12 4 0 145 117 54 52 16 42 87 3.23 112
N. Briles 22 28 17 0 5 8 2 104 110 46 40 11 40 69 3.46 105
J. Gelnar 23 27 17 1 6 4 0 99 111 46 44 13 31 49 4.00 91
E. Fisher 29 60 0 0 5 5 15 86 77 30 26 4 24 47 2.72 133
H. Woodeshick* 33 59 0 0 3 0 4 70 57 17 15 5 23 30 1.93 188
L. McDaniel 30 58 0 0 9 3 5 98 80 33 27 3 29 76 2.48 146
J. Hoerner* 29 57 0 0 6 0 13 76 57 16 13 5 21 63 1.54 235
Others 7 3 3 3 2 59 48 19 16 2 19 40 2.44 148
Total 162 49 105 57 41 1457 1294 514 450 117 406 871 2.78 130
* Throws leftIt isn’t a season in which everything goes according to plan. First baseman Lee Thomas slumps so badly that he loses his starting role. Second baseman Julian Javier hits quite poorly, as well, though his slick glove allows him to retain his first-string job, more or less. And The Phantom's fellow defensive whiz, center fielder Curt Flood, wields a third slump-ridden bat.But the parade of good news is long and boisterous. Right fielder Felipe Alou delivers his best year, leading the league in hits and finishing second in batting average. Third baseman Mike Shannon breaks through as a productive regular. Art Shamsky comes off the bench with outstanding power to grab the first-base job from Thomas. With solid years from left fielder Lou Brock and catcher Tim McCarver, and robust lefty-mashing work from platoon hitter Don Pavletich, we mount a league-average offense despite our slumps.
And this competent offense is paired with a pitching staff of rare and exquisite excellence. Ace Bob Gibson has never been more terrific. Southpaw Al Jackson, a humdrum innings-eater in seasons past, comes up with a marvelous performance of his own, combining with Gibson and veteran right-hander Larry Jackson to form an outstanding top three. Jaster and sophomore Nelson Briles provide reliable spot starting.
Hoerner is tremendous. He joins fellow lefty Hal Woodeshick and right-handers Lindy McDaniel and Eddie Fisher to form a four-man relief unit that is an impervious and dazzling gem.
No major league ball club since 1954 has presented an ERA+ better than ours. Led by this phenomenal staff (and helped a little bit by a three-win Pythag cushion), our 105 victories are the second-most in St. Louis history. We finish, heartbreakingly, in second, but there is no question that our long struggle to produce a contender is over. These Cardinals are, at last, absolutely for real.
Next time
In a suddenly new reality, we find ourselves asking if it's the Reds who might be able to get within hailing distance of the front-runners in 1967.
Giants: Actual Reds: Actual Cardinals: Actual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1958 80 74 3 727 698 76 78 4 695 623 72 82 5T 619 704
1959 83 71 3 705 613 74 80 5T 764 738 71 83 7 641 725
1960 79 75 5 671 631 67 87 6 640 692 86 68 3 639 616
1961 85 69 3 773 655 93 61 1 710 653 80 74 5 703 668
1962 103 62 1 878 690 98 64 3 802 685 84 78 6 774 664
1963 88 74 3 725 641 86 76 5 648 594 93 69 2 747 628
1964 90 72 4 656 587 92 70 2T 660 566 93 69 1 715 652
1965 95 67 2 682 593 89 73 4 825 704 80 81 7 707 674
1966 93 68 2 675 626 76 84 7 692 702 83 79 6 571 577
Giants: Virtual Reds: Virtual Cardinals: Virtual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1958 83 71 2T 747 692 73 81 5 683 637 77 77 4 640 677
1959 87 67 1T 737 615 87 67 1T 802 662 84 70 4 725 685
1960 93 61 1 709 561 76 78 6 705 666 86 68 4 661 632
1961 88 66 2 787 648 106 48 1 813 629 72 82 6 689 724
1962 103 59 1 800 632 101 61 2T 779 663 84 78 6 809 703
1963 97 65 3 726 578 100 62 1 704 540 80 82 6 664 668
1964 100 62 2 726 576 101 61 1 689 533 87 75 4 662 657
1965 99 63 1 697 587 98 64 2 843 646 85 76 5 692 622
1966 106 55 1 739 581 87 73 5 769 677 105 57 2 667 514
References and Resources
In case you're wondering what a league might look like that has its top two teams combining for 211 wins, and its fifth-place team capturing 87...
I certainly haven't "spreadsheeted" any of the other teams the way I have our three protagonists, but through this exercise, I have kept an off-the-top-of-the-head estimate of how each year's NL standings would turn out, given the probable moves everyone else would be making in this scenario. And here's how the 1966 National League standings might have been:
Team W L Pos SAN FRANCISCO 106 55 1 ST. LOUIS 105 57 2 Pittsburgh 90 72 3 Los Angeles 89 73 4 CINCINNATI 87 73 5 Philadelphia 71 91 6T Houston 71 91 6T Atlanta 70 92 8 New York 62 99 9 Chicago 57 105 10Quite a peculiar outcome, no doubt: a league not only with extreme totals at both ends, but also with no team close to .500, just five clear winners and five clear losers.
Steve Treder can often be found spending way too much time talking baseball at Baseball Primer. He welcomes your questions and comments via e-mail.
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The Hardball Times
Dissecting a mystery pitch
by Alan NathanJanuary 31, 2012
Alan Nathan is Professor Emeritus of Physics at the University of Illinois who spends his time these days working on the physics of baseball.
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The Hardball Times
A baseball card mystery: Ken Holtzman’s 1974 Topps card
by Bruce MarkusenJanuary 31, 2012
Bruce Markusen is the author of seven books on baseball, including the award-winning A Baseball Dynasty: Charlie Finley’s Swingin’ A’s, the recipient of the Seymour Medal from the Society for American Baseball Research. He has also written The Team That Changed Baseball: Roberto Clemente and the 1971 Pittsburgh Pirates, Tales From The Mets Dugout, and The Orlando Cepeda Story.
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The Hardball Times
The new golden age of catching
by Troy PattersonJanuary 31, 2012
Since 1976, the total fWAR accumulated by all catchers has been higher than that totaled in 2011 only once. That was in 1977, when catchers in both leagues totaled 86.1 fWAR. Last season in nearly an extra 500 games, catchers had an fWAR of 84.3. Considering that 2011 includes FanGraphs base running skill, but pre-2002 years do not, the comparison is even more impressive for the seasons after 2002, since in no year have catchers had a base running value higher than -45.8.
During the span from 2004 to 2009, only Ivan Rodriguez was among that group in fWAR and he was the only one largely included for defensive value. That group was always the best of the best, with Mauer being the far and away best. Then, in the span of two seasons, we saw an influx of talent both at the plate and behind the plate.
In 2010 the majors saw seven players top 3 fWAR at catcher including Buster Posey in his first full season. There were also a few random blips in the cases of Miguel Olivo and Carlos Ruiz, who were not young players and had little history of being that level of catcher. Olivo benefited from a solid season defensively to reach this level. This seemed like a nice season from the backstops, but what happened next was a boon of catchers.
Last season 11 players totaled more than 3 fWAR; not one was by benefit of an above-average defensive value. This new group included Mike Napoli (pictured) in a breakout season, Alex Avila, Matt Wieters, Yadier Molina, Carlos Santana, Nick Hundley, Chris Iannetta and Wilson Ramos. Surprisingly Mauer and Martinez missed this group, making this influx of new talent even more impressive.
That list also misses Posey after his gruesome leg injury and 2012 will welcome Jesus Montero to the majors. Although playing in Seattle might hurt his overall numbers offensively, his Oliver projections give him enough to enter this group in 2012 with a projected WAR of 3.2. A few players might come down to earth or play less time behind the plate, but 2012 looks to continue the elite play at backstop.
Explaining the new catchers
This sudden boom of catching talent seems to coincide with many teams and analysts trying to put a value to catching defense and most finding the value is quite a bit less than had been thought. Sure, there are some butchers with the glove, but the highest lost value in most seasons is 10 runs or one win. So a player like Napoli is going to cost you a few runs behind the plate, but spending a majority of his time there still makes him a better team asset than at first base or DH.
So teams are willing to slide even poor defenders behind the plate to see their offense carry a poor glove. Dave Cameron did a look at this value when reviewing where to put Montero. Even his theoretical worst catcher makes sense behind the plate over the DH spot. That's not to say someone like David Ortiz should have been playing catcher all these years, but perhaps the Red Sox should not view Ryan Lavarnway as a future DH just to keep Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate.
Lavarnway is an excellent example of the new catcher. He played outfield in high school and his early college career until 2007 when he moved to catcher. His defense has grown in the two college years and three minor league seasons since, but he still is labeled most often as future DH. If his glove and arm do just enough not to embarrass or draw negative attention to himself, then he is exactly the type of catcher the majors have seen emerge recently.
So the new catching group is allowed to make some defensive gaffes because the offense at that position is so valuable. This seems to come with a fan and manager limit, though. If a player like Martinez just can't throw anyone out, then the manager and fans just can't agree with any numbers. The same is true when you look at Napoli—his label as defensive liability has pushed him to limited catching duty.
As many have said, there are plenty of ways we could be discounting the defensive value or cost. Regardless, the consensus is that one to one-and-a-half wins is the limit for any catcher to gain or lose for his team. If you can find someone who is passable behind the plate, it's a lot simpler to find another bat to fill your DH spot than the other way around.
Next season
According to Oliver forecasts, seven catchers are headed for WAR totals over three. That includes Montero at the position and another season of Napoli at catcher for at least most of his games. There doesn't seen to be a benefit to moving catchers away from the position and teams have started to take advantage of that. The 2011 season was arguably the best by catchers in 35 seasons and with last year's catchers expected to stay behind the plate in 2012, there is no reason we shouldn't see another great year from catchers.
Check out more work from Troy at the Boston Red Sox blog Fire Brand of the AL. You can contact him with questions or recommendations email me or @TroyPatterson
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The Hardball Times
10,000 days since Carlton becomes Phillies win leader
by Chris JaffeJanuary 31, 2012
History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail.
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The Hardball Times
The Verdict: Hardball Times mock draft analysis
by Michael SteinJanuary 31, 2012
The Court wants to hear your comments on whether you concur or dissent with the verdict by sending an email to michael.stein @ fantasyjudgment.com, or find us on Facebook and Twitter @FantasyJudgment.
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The Hardball Times
Let there be news - Volume 6
by Brad JohnsonJanuary 30, 2012
Let There Be News is a recap of the most interesting stories and transactions from the previous week.
In case it wasn’t clear, the lead-in was a joke. There is no team named the Mysteries, although I imagine they would be based in Montreal were they to exist. The Montreal Mysteries are now expected to focus their attention on Cuban imports Yoenis Cespedes, Gerardo Concepcion and Jorge Soler.
This week’s feedback request: How often do you use links from LTBN? This week’s issue is fairly light on links (outside of the Fielder section). Does that negatively affect the quality of the column?
On to real stuff…
The Detroit Tigers hook Prince Fielder
Oh, to imagine how many words could I write about Fielder and the Tigers right now.
The contract, a nine-year, $214 million behemoth, will pay Fielder $23 million in 2012 and 2013 and then $24 million for the remaining seasons. Rather than rehash all the fallout from the signing, let’s take this in a different direction, shall we?
A timeline of the deal.
Too many DHs?
On defense and brick gloves.
Jay Jaffe has more about those brick gloves.
Joe Sheehan thinks the Cabrera-to-third base plan is a mistake.
The consensus is that Prince was overpaid. Is that true?
When owners attack. Or more specifically, when owners take a personal interest in fielding a high-quality product. Yeah, that’s a less interesting title, let’s stick with “when owners attack.”
R.J. Anderson does a great job covering the many aspects of this signing. Unfortunately, it is behind a paywall.
The Blue Jays sign Brandon Morrow to a three-year deal
The three-year, $21 million deal covers Morrow’s final two arbitration seasons plus a free-agent season. The club holds a $10 million option on a fourth season with a $1 million buyout.
The contract is a calculated risk on the part of the Jays. Morrow shows frequent flashes of ability, akin to the best pitchers in baseball, yet his actual results have been below average. Three years from now, we might be talking about Morrow as an elite pitcher or as a slightly better version of Ricky Nolasco. Only time will tell in that regard.
Morrow consistently fans over 10 batters per nine innings, and his walk rate has trended in a rapidly positive direction. That’s the good news.
The bad news has to do with his ability to strand baserunners, specifically that he’s been below average in that category the last few years. Chris Cwik offers some theories over at Fangraphs.
So, will Morrow continue to improve his control? Will he get a handle on baserunners? The answers to these questions probably will determine whether the Blue Jays just signed a great contract or a mediocre one.
The Giants sign Tim Lincecum to a two-year deal
The two-year, $40.5 million contract buys out Lincecum’s final two seasons of arbitration eligibility.
Players and teams exchanged arbitration figures last week. The Giants submitted a $17 million figure while team Lincecum countered with $21.5 million. Rather than face arbitration, the two parties agreed to a contract that calls for $18 million in 2012 and $22 million in 2013 with a $500k signing bonus.
The deal is seemingly an admission by Lincecum and his representation that their figure might not have been entirely reasonable. Perhaps they expected a lower bid from the Giants?
The deal has a bit of a head-scratcher quality from the Giants' perspective. Going year-to-year with Lincecum would have cost the club “only” an additional $2.5 million.*
*estimated $19.25 million mid-point for 2012 + roughly $23.75 mil in 2013
Given the available information—including continuously declining velocity from Lincecum, an atypical body type for a pitcher, and mechanics that still cause some scouts to bite their nails—it seems like a roughly $2.5 million savings is on the light side when over $20 million is at stake.
Then again, the Giants will undoubtedly insure their ace, so they’ll be just fine monetarily so long as Lincecum is productive or on the disabled list. And the added cost certainty may make it easier to deal Lincecum if the Giants discover that their ship is sinking at the trade deadline.
The Blue Jays sign Francisco Cordero
And with that, the last closer is finally signed. Cordero agreed to a one-year, $4.5 million contract to head north of the border.
Of course, the interesting part of this deal is that Cordero will not serve as the Blue Jays closer. That honor goes to Sergio Santos, who has emerged as one of the game’s better relievers in recent seasons. Santos was acquired earlier this offseason from the White Sox in exchange for Nestor Molina.
It’s possible, perhaps likely, that Cordero overplayed his hand this offseason. His peripherals have declined rapidly, but he still has the record of proven success that some front offices appreciate.
If he'd had more modest salary demands earlier in the offseason, he probably could have found a more advantageous situation, be that an actual closer's role or simply more money over more years. Instead, he found himself without leverage, choosing between teams with lukewarm interest.
It’s impossible to blame Cordero or his representation for that. Pitchers with a lesser reputation than Cordero have signed for more in recent seasons—Brandon Lyon comes to mind—and Jonathan Papelbon found a massive contract with the Phillies that sent a false signal to free-agent closers.
Quick Hits
Only a few players have generated more speculation this offseason than Yoenis Cespedes. He’s finally a free agent, and negotiations could move quickly with spring training only a few weeks away.
The Phillies signed Juan Pierre to a minor-league deal. He will compete with John Mayberry Jr. and Laynce Nix for playing time in left field. His primary role may be as a pinch runner for when Jim Thome or Ty Wigginton reach base late in games.
The Phillies have one roster spot unaccounted for while Ryan Howard is sidelined with an Achilles injury, but his return will result in a roster crunch. I have more to say about the move and how it affects Domonic Brown over on THT Live.
The Red Sox signed outfielder Cody Ross to a one-year deal and figure to use him in the light half of a platoon with Ryan Sweeney. If Carl Crawford’s struggles from 2011 continue into 2012, Ross may find some time in left field as well.
Last Monday, the Yankees and Mariners officially completed their blockbuster trade from two weeks ago. For those living under a rock, the Yankees will receive Michael Pineda and pitching prospect Jose Campos from the Mariners in return for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi.
Whilst the internet melted from the stunning Fielder signing, the Orioles quietly signed utility infielder Wilson Betemit. He has emerged as a useful platoon option and will earn $3.25 million over the next two seasons.
The Nationals inked Brad Lidge to a one-year, $1 million deal. The Nationals’ spacious home park seems ideally suited to the injury-prone slider specialist.
The Athletics designated utility infielder Adrian Cardenas for assignment. The A’s originally received Cardenas as part of the Joe Blanton trade. The other major piece in that trade, Josh Outman, was already dealt this offseason.
The Rays signed utility infielder Jeff Keppinger to a one-year, $1.525 million deal. Keppinger’s flexibility should prove useful to a club that is famous for its ability to get the most out of its players. Russ Canzler was designated for assignment in a related move.
The Giants signed Ryan Theriot to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with incentives that could take the deal up to $2 million. Theriot will join a crowded mix of undistinguished shortstops in San Francisco.
Closing thoughts
LTBN may take a one-week hiatus in observance of the national holiday next Sunday. More likely, an abbreviated version will appear.
Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com
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The Hardball Times
Juan Pierre, Domonic Brown, and plans
by Brad JohnsonJanuary 30, 2012
Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com
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The Hardball Times
Dave Duncan, the 1982 Mariners and lost glory
by Paul Francis SullivanJanuary 30, 2012
Pitching coach extraordinaire Dave Duncan has stepped down from his position with the St. Louis Cardinals. Chances are he has coached his last game, leaving as a world champion. But he’s been more than a great pitching coach. He has left in his wake a multitude of pitchers who turned their careers around, tapped into their potential, and had their best seasons under his tutelage.
In his time as a coach for the White Sox, A’s and Cardinals, four different pitchers won Cy Young Awards. (LaMarr Hoyt, Bob Welch, Dennis Eckersley and Chris Carpenter.) He turned a journeyman into one of the best postseason aces of all time (Dave Stewart.) He made a Hall of Famer out of one washed-up starter-turned-reliever (Eckersley) and a top setup man out of another (Rick Honeycutt.) And he transformed a reliever into a 20-win, Cy Young-contending starter (Adam Wainwright).
Pitchers like Storm Davis, Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan, Matt Morris and Joel Pineiro all became millionaires many times over after reviving their careers under Duncan’s watch. Twenty times one of his pitchers received Cy Young consideration. He has a remarkable resume of success with three different playoff-bound franchises (and world championships in both leagues.)
And to think, the team that could have benefitted from this wisdom was the Seattle Mariners.
The potential turning point of 1982
Managers Darrell Johnson and Maury Wills couldn’t turn the team into a .500 club, let alone a contender. But when manager Rene Lachemann brought Duncan onto his coaching staff, things began to turn around.
The Mariners were contending at the All-Star break and had a winning record going into August before tailing off. But their 76-86 record was by far their best season to date.
The main reason for the turnaround was the pitching. With Duncan in charge of the staff, Seattle led the league in strikeouts and finished second in saves and shutouts.
Seattle’s 1982 season was best remembered for an ancient Mariner. Gaylord Perry earned his 300th win (and cemented his Hall of Fame resume) in the Kingdome that year. But it was their young pitchers that gave the team hope.
Twenty-seven-year-old Floyd Bannister was starting to fulfill his talent. Jim Beattie already had World Series experience and success but was also only 27 and pitched to a good 3.34 ERA. Twenty-five-year-old Bill Caudill was the bullpen ace, winning 12 and saving 26 with a 2.35 ERA.
Left-handers Bryan Clark and Ed Vande Berg were both excellent that year out of the pen. And a trio of youngsters, Edwin Nunez, Mike Moore and Gene Nelson, all struggled but showed promise. Moore, at age 22, was the elder statesman of the three. Jerry Don Gleaton and Larry Andersen, both of whom would pitch for many years to come, were also on the staff.
The staff that could have been
What if Duncan were allowed to mold this group? Picture the same coach who transformed so many careers using his wisdom and turning around the franchise.
Moore would spend years being agonizingly inconsistent in Seattle before becoming an ace after joining the A’s (and Duncan’s supervision.) Nunez never quite put it together in his career, shuttling between the rotation and the bullpen before bouncing around as a mop-up man for the next 12 seasons. Perhaps Duncan could have been his anchor.
Meanwhile, the Mariners farm system included future ace Mark Langston and the talented, but inconsistent, Matt Young.
Imagine the Mariners pitching in the mid 1980s with Duncan on the coaching staff. As history actually unfolded, neither Moore nor Langston could synchronize their solid seasons. One was always off when the other was on. Could Duncan have made them the devastating 1-2 punch in the AL West?
Along with Bannister and Young in the rotation and Caudill, Gleaton, Nunez and Andersen in the bullpen, the team could have had the best pitching staff in the division. Nelson would become an effective pitcher under Duncan in Oakland. Why not in Seattle?
Remove Duncan’s influence from the 1983 White Sox and the 1988-1992 A’s, and the AL West would have been a very winnable division.
No team other than the LaRussa/Duncan White Sox had even a winning record in the West in 1983. The 84-win Royals were the lone winning AL West team in 1984, and 91 wins were enough for the Royals to win in 1985. The Twins won the AL West (and eventually the World Series) with just 85 wins. And then the LaRussa/Duncan juggernaut went to Oakland.
Sure, this change in history would have meant that Ken Griffey, Jr. would have been drafted by another team, but the foundation of a good offense was there as well.
Big leaguers Dave Henderson, Julio Cruz and Todd Cruz were all on the 1982 squad. Future major leaguers like Spike Owen, Phil Bradley, Harold Reynolds, Alvin Davis and Jim Presley were already in the Mariners system. And Danny Tartabull was acquired between the 1982 and 1983 seasons.
None of those players were superstars, but they could have given Seattle a good infield and a powerful outfield to compliment their deep pitching.
A great pitching staff could have finished in first one of those years. The franchise that had 15 of 16 losing years to begin their existence could have found the postseason around the same time as their partner in expansion, the Toronto Blue Jays, did in the mid 1980s.
The ugly truth
Alas, that didn’t happen. Mariners owner George Argyros was notoriously cheap and wouldn’t give Duncan more than a one-year contract. Duncan went to the White Sox in 1983 in time for their first postseason berth since 1959. The Mariners regressed to a 100-loss team and even Dick Williams couldn’t turn the squad around.
As Duncan collaborated with LaRussa on 14 playoff teams, six pennant winners and three world champions, the city of Seattle remains the only current big-league city never to have hosted a World Series.
(The Nationals/Expos franchise has never won a pennant, either. But the city of Washington was host to the 1924, 1925 and 1933 World Series, and Montreal is no longer a big-league city.)
Could the Mariners have won in the mediocre West of the 1980s? Nobody will know for sure. But it is safe to guess that a pitching coach who could win a World Series starting Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan and Anthony Reyes could have done a good job Mike Moore and Mark Langston in their primes.
Alas, more reasons to cry in Seattle’s coffee.
References and Resources
SB Nation, Lookout Landing, Baseball Reference
Visit http://sullybaseball.blogspot.com/
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This week in (fantasy) baseball
by Karl de VriesJanuary 30, 2012
Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.
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What was I thinking?
by Ben PritchettJanuary 30, 2012
Ben Pritchett can be reached for questions, comments, gripes, or considerations at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or you could follow his whims on twitter @pritchettclan.
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THT mock draft 2012
by Ben PritchettJanuary 28, 2012
Ben Pritchett can be reached for questions, comments, gripes, or considerations at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or you could follow his whims on twitter @pritchettclan.
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Price’s backdoor cutter
by Lucas ApostolerisJanuary 27, 2012
You can read more of Lucas's work at Beyond the Boxscore and Don't Bring In The Lefty. Also, you can contact him at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or on Twitter @DBITLefty.
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Cliff Lee and the four-seam fastball
by Harry PavlidisJanuary 27, 2012
Harry Pavlidis admits he has a baseball problem. He is a member of Complete Game Consulting and has his own blog, Cubs f/x. Feedback, questions and comments are appreciated - Email harrypav@gmail.com and Twitter @harrypav
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Outfield assist of another kind
by Bojan KoprivicaJanuary 27, 2012
After playing, coaching and umpiring more than 500 games all over Europe, Bojan realized that it's actually writing about baseball that can be most easily done while holding a beer in a hand. If you want to discuss either baseball or beer with him, drop him a line.
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In the old days, the game was more exciting
by Max MarchiJanuary 27, 2012
There was no paraphernalia in the old days with which one could protect himself. No mitts; no, not even gloves, and masks, why you would have been laughed off the diamond had you worn one behind the bat.
- Jim O'Rourke, 1913
I don't think the major league baseball players of today can be compared to the old-timers. I think the slider is a nickel curve and I detest hearing the modern sissies moan about how it has ruined batting averages.
- Frankie Frisch, 1962
I think probably after my generation, the game is going to change. My generation is the last of the old school.
- Darren Daulton, 1997
Former players will always tell you that nowadays the game is easier, while back in their day the pay was low, the fields were uneven, and you had to be a very tough guy to get and keep a job in baseball.
Thus, while I never read about anyone saying the line used for the title, it's quite possible that if you ask a bunch of old-timers, you'll discover that they did used to play a more exciting game, and that today's millionaires take part in rather dull contests.
During the last offseason I introduced a method to rank games by their "excitement factor." The relevant articles that lay down the foundation for the algorithm are What makes an exciting game, revisited and More than three decades of exciting games.
However imperfect a measure of something so subjective will always be, the method was shown to do a pretty good job. When teams traded the lead and the outcome was in discussion until the very end, the games were ranked high. Conversely, whenever one team run out for good with the lead very early, the contest was listed at the bottom. As a refresher, you may want to look at the articles dealing with Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series (World Series at its best and Fall Classics countdown).
One reader e-mailed me with an interesting question. Looking at the top postseason games list, he had the impression that the highest ranks were dominated by recent games. Thus he asked whether that was just an artifact due to the increased number of postseason games. Or are we witnessing an increase in spectacular playoff contests?
Retrosheet has play-by-play data for every postseason game in major league history. I applied my algorithm to the games and grouped them by decades.
The chart below shows the average scores by decade.
Unfortunately it's hard (if not impossible) to interpret what a change of 0.10 in the excitement factor means, as the final number is obtained through a series of statistical transformations. The best I can do to help interpret these difference is to outline a couple of games for comparison.
Game One of the 1927 World Series, a 5-4 Yankees victory over the Pirates, scores very close to 0.1 (the typical postseason game of the '20s), while Game Five of the 1967 World Series, won by the Red Sox 3-1 over the Cardinals, is around -0.1, much in line with the average 1960s postseason game.
If you look both at the line score and the win probability chart of those games, you'll have a hard time telling which must have been the more exciting. Going through the 1927 play-by-play, we see the Pirates threatened in the bottom of the eighth, cutting the Yankees' lead to one run and leaving the tying runner 90 feet from home.
On the other hand the 1967 Cardinals never figured out Jim Lonborg: They connected for just three hits and never were in contention despite the close final score (Roger Maris belted a homer to right with two outs in the ninth for the lone Cardinals run).
However, back to the question. Have postseason games gotten more exciting lately? The chart seems to say that the games got worse from the '20s to the '60s, then bounced back to the original standard.
There's a peak in the '90s. If we think about that decade, a lot of great games come to mind:
{exp:list_maker}Joe Carter's game winner in 1993
Sid Bream coming home in 1991
The entire 1991 World Series
The Marlins winning in extra innings in Game Seven in 1997
and many more{/exp:list_maker}
I don't feel we can come out with anything conclusive from this analysis. From the beginning of the 20th century to the end of the 1960s the postseason was just the World Series, with a maximum of seven games played in a given year. Thus just 50-60 games contribute to the average scores until the '60s, compared to 140 in the '70s, 176 in the '80s, 228 in the '90s and 322 in the first decade of the new millennium.
Luckily, we have a lot more games to work with. In fact Retrosheet offers play-by-play data for regular season contests going back to 1948, thus giving us the opportunity to compare thousands of games each year.
The question can be reformulated: Have the games gotten better in the last 60 years?
Look at the chart below, showing the average score by year.
Even without the superposed smooth line, it appears the answer is a resounding no. The games seem to have steadily been getting more boring since the '70s.
Okay, that's quite a bold statement, as the golden year of 1966 scores 0.04 on average while in the dark times of 2001 the average game scored -0.02. I challenge the readers to choose the better game between the May 30, 1966 one featuring the Orioles at Minnesota (Baltimore won 5-1) and the Sept. 9, 2001 contest in which the Blue Jays visited the Tigers (and won 6-3).
Again, if you look closely, the 1966 game is locked for the first half, while the 2001 Jays take an early lead they never relinquish, and this can make for the difference (0.04 versus -0.02) in the excitement factor.
Sure, the difference separating the best and worst years is very thin. However a trend is there: Starting from the 1970s, the line has steadily gone downward. Is it possible to find a cause for this?
Everyone knows that 1969 is the year of a four-team expansion. It's also the year when divisions were born and the mound was lowered. Any of the three, or their combination, could be the culprit. However, if it was a single change in the game (or a combination of events happening together), I would expect the line to have an initial steep decline, then become flat. If it were expansion, for example, we should see a step down in 1969, then other steps when the major leagues expanded again in 1977, 1993 and 1998.
You might remember that the game excitement score is the synthesis of three factors, one for the importance of the final part of games, one for rallies and one for equilibrium.
The next charts depicts the trend for the three factors.
The rally factor seems to be the force driving down the game excitement. It seems that coming back has consistently become more difficult over the years.
Does this make sense? I think so.
I would indicate relief pitching as the explanation for that. Baseball has gradually moved from having the starting pitcher going the full nine innings to the current habit of having multiple relievers come out of the bullpen in a single game and, perhaps, in a single inning.
Coming back has to be harder when there's never a tired arm on the mound, the superstar left-handed batter has to face a southpaw specialist brought in just for him, and setup-closer combinations like Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel can make games just seven- inning affairs.
Will the trend continue? Are we doomed to watch fewer and fewer thrilling contests in the future?
If the relievers usage hypothesis is sound, it's hard to imagine an increase of specialization from where we stand right now, unless teams completely abandon the concept of starting rotation and select their pitchers inning by inning.
Thus, we should not get worse than this. Let's hope the evolutions that sooner or later will happen in baseball can make up for what we have lost during the past decades.
References and Resources
The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at http://www.retrosheet.org.
After creating a baseball rendition of The Beatles' Sgt. Pepper cover, Max began his baseball writing because he needed an excuse to show the picture. He wrote for an Italian audience for six years before making the jump to The Hardball Times. You can contact him by e-mail.
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Supplementing the dynasty rankings (Part 1)
by Jeffrey GrossJanuary 27, 2012
Jeffrey Gross is a 24-year old law student (and die-hard Cubs fan) who currently resides in Madison, WI. In addition to writing for The Hardball Times, he currently writes baseball analysis for the Game Of Inches blog under the pseudonym David "MVP" Eckstein and has previously worked for The Daily Illini and Northern Star newspapers as a film critic and sportswriter (respectively). You can reach him by email at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or by comment at http://www.gameofinches.blogspot.com
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30th anniversary: The Ryne Sandberg trade
by Chris JaffeJanuary 27, 2012
History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail.
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Cooperstown Confidential: thinking about Al Smith
by Bruce MarkusenJanuary 27, 2012
I must confess that when I first heard about the death of Al Smith 10 years ago, I knew little about him or his career. I remembered him mainly as being the pour soul who had a glass of beer dumped on him by a careless fan at the old Comiskey Park. The photo of Smith being doused with beer has become iconic for baseball fans. But there is more, so much more, to the story of a very fine ballplayer.
With a name like Al Smith, it’s easy to become overlooked. He did have a colorful nickname in “Fuzzy,“ pinned on him by a minor league teammate who noticed how quickly his facial hair grew. But his actual name was exceedingly bland. Coco Crisp, minor leaguer Wonderful Monds, and Orval Overall have names that make you curious to learn more about their accomplishments and personalities. With an Al Smith, the motivation to learn more must come from somewhere else. In Smith’s case, he was not only a good player but a man who overcame obstacles, including the color line, position switches, unpopular trades and displeased fans.
Although Smith played through the mid-1960s, his professional career actually began in the Negro Leagues, at a time when segregation was only beginning to break down in baseball. He broke in with the now forgotten Cleveland Buckeyes in 1947, the same year that Jackie Robinson was making history for the Brooklyn Dodgers. Smith and the Buckeyes claimed the 1947 Negro American League championship. One year later, Smith signed a contract with the Indians organization, but it was a minor league assignment with no promise of major league glory. Smith spent nearly six full seasons working his way through Cleveland’s system, improving his OPS almost every season, before finally receiving the big league call in 1953.
A right-handed hitter and thrower, Smith didn’t hit much as a rookie, but immediately impressed the Indians with his defense in left field. By the following year, his offensive game showed enough improvement to earn placement in the starting lineup. Initially, he played infield for the 1954 Indians, before being switched to left field, where he beat out veteran Dale Mitchell.
Impressed with his patient approach to hitting, the Indians installed him as their leadoff man. He responded by reaching base at a clip of .398, scoring 101 runs, and skillfully setting the table for middle-of-the-lineup mashers like Al Rosen, Larry Doby and Vic Wertz. (Yeah, those ‘54 Indians could play a little bit.) Though overshadowed by the bigger names in a deep and talented lineup, Smith played a huge role in the Indians winning 111 games, at the time an American League record.
Smith and the Indians ended up losing the World Series in stunning fashion, dropping four straight games to the upstart New York Giants. It wasn’t really Smith’s fault; he reached base 35 per cent of the time and hit a leadoff home run on the first pitch of Game Two.
As well as Smith played in 1954, he elevated his game the following summer. With a .407 on-base percentage, 22 home runs, and a league-leading 123 runs scored, Smith emerged as the Indians’ best everyday player. His career season earned him a third-place finish in the MVP race, ahead of such immortals as Ted Williams and Mickey Mantle. Only Yogi Berra and Al Kaline, two other Hall of Famers, bettered him in the MVP balloting.
Unfortunately, Smith’s 1955 season would represent his pinnacle. His play fell off appreciably the following two seasons. In 1957, the Indians switched him between the outfield and third base, a move that displeased him, and somewhat understandably so, considering his defensive acumen in the outfield. The Indians told Smith they wanted to make him their fulltime third baseman in 1958. So Smith asked for a trade.
The White Sox accommodated Smith during the offseason. The Indians sent him and Hall of Fame right-hander Early Wynn to the White Sox for Minnie Minoso and Fred Hatfield.
The trade became a public relations disaster for the White Sox. Smith became well-liked by his new teammates, but Minoso was such a popular player with the ChiSox that Chicago fans blamed Smith for being his replacement. Unfairly, Smith became a frequent target of boobirds at Comiskey Park. Given such a negative atmosphere, it’s not surprising that Smith batted only .252 and .237 in his first two seasons in the Windy City.
Bill Veeck, the legendary owner of the Indians, sensed that Smith was being made a scapegoat and tried to soothe the situation. On Aug. 26, 1959, he held “Al Smith Night” at Comiskey Park. Anyone with the last name of Smith (or any name that resembled Smith) would be admitted to the ballpark free and given a button that said, “I’m A Smith and I’m For Al.” It was the pure promotional genius of Veeck at its best, but it initially seemed to backfire. That night, Smith dropped a fly ball that led directly to a 7-6 loss for the White Sox.
After that moment of embarrassment, Smith responded with a late-season charge. He hit six home runs over the final five weeks of the season, including a key blast on Sept. 22. His home run, coming against his former mates in Cleveland, helped the White Sox to a win that clinched the American League pennant. The “Go Go Sox,” so named for their emphasis on singles hitting and speed, advanced to the 1959 World Series to play the Dodgers.
That World Series would provide the singular moment of fame in Smith’s career. In Game Two, he ran back toward the wall on Charlie Neal’s long drive. As Smith stood at the brick wall, forlornly watching Neal’s drive land a few rows deep into the Comiskey Park stands, he was greeted by a face full of beer, dumped on him from the stands.
“It hit the bill of my cap and came down the side of my face,” Smith said later. “It was in my nose and everywhere.” The Chicago Tribune ran a picture spread of the famous dousing. Taken by photographer Ray Gora using a new high tech camera designed to cover NASA rocket launches, the photos presented an eight-part sequence of the incident. The photos were picked up nationwide, making Smith a celebrity of sorts, but for all the wrong reasons.
At first, Smith thought a fan had tossed the beer at him intentionally. But the left field umpire told him that the fan had accidentally knocked the beer over while trying to catch the home run ball. The fan, a motor oil company executive named Melvin Piehl, later explained that he was trying to make the catch so that the ball wouldn’t hit his boss’ wife, who was sitting next to him. At least Smith could take some consolation in knowing that one of the hometown fans meant him no harm.
The White Sox ended up losing that game, and the Series, just as the Indians had in 1954. Perhaps that’s one reason Smith is not better remembered.
By 1960, Smith’s popularity in Chicago seemed to turn a corner, as he became accepted by the Chicago fans who were now placated by the return of Minoso via trade. To make room for him, the Sox asked Smith to move to right field. He not only made the move unflinchingly, but he also batted .315, good enough for second in the league batting race, and earned a spot on his second All-Star team. The following year, he put together his best season in terms of raw power, reaching career highs with 28 home runs and 93 RBI.
Smith followed with a slightly less productive season in 1962, but he would run into a more significant roadblock because of a change in Sox ownership. Veeck, whom Smith loved to the point of calling him “the greatest man… in baseball,” had sold the team. His departure left the Sox’ day-to-day operations in the hands of new general manager Ed Short.
Smith bristled when Short asked him to move back to third base. White Sox management also asked Smith to become an off-season ticket seller. When Smith balked at the proposed wintertime job, the White Sox traded him and Luis Aparicio to the Orioles for Hoyt Wilhelm, Ron Hansen, Pete Ward and Dave Nicholson.
By now 35, Smith started to slip badly. He played a year in Baltimore before making a short return to Cleveland for a half-season and then finishing up his career with the Red Sox. At 36, the talented and versatile Mr. Smith was done.
After his playing career, Smith remained in baseball, just not in the major leagues. He went to work managing the park district baseball program for the city of Chicago, remaining in that position from 1966 to 1981. He also did some part-time work for the White Sox in the field of community relations.
Ten years ago, Smith, by then retired, underwent arterial surgery. Afterward, he suffered cardiac arrest and died at the age of 73.
The headlines of some of his obituaries highlighted the incident with the cup of beer. Yet, there was so much more to this man, who was a Negro Leagues standout, a productive player for two World Series teams, a highly regarded teammate, and a popular citizen in the city of Chicago. Al Smith might have had a plain name, but he had a rather remarkable life.
Bruce Markusen is the author of seven books on baseball, including the award-winning A Baseball Dynasty: Charlie Finley’s Swingin’ A’s, the recipient of the Seymour Medal from the Society for American Baseball Research. He has also written The Team That Changed Baseball: Roberto Clemente and the 1971 Pittsburgh Pirates, Tales From The Mets Dugout, and The Orlando Cepeda Story.
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Closer watch
by Paul SingmanJanuary 26, 2012
Paul has been managing fantasy baseball teams for many seasons and writing for THT Fantasy over the past three years. He is currently a student at UPenn welcomes readers' thoughts at his email here or in the comments below.
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Jack Morris: the winningest pitcher of the 1980s
by Bobby MuellerJanuary 26, 2012
The only two certainties in life are death and taxes.
—Mark Twain.
At times attributed to Mark Twain, Benjamin Franklin, and Christopher Bullock, the above quote isn’t exactly correct. One other certainty in life is that a sportswriter supporting Jack Morris for the Hall of Fame will ALWAYS mention two things about Morris: His 10-inning, complete-game, 1-0 shutout of the Braves in game seven of the 1991 World Series and that he won more games than any other pitcher during the 1980s.
This article supporting Jack Morris for the Hall of Fame mentions both, of course, even adding a little something extra: "Morris won more games than any pitcher during the 1980s. Every pitcher that won the most games in a given decade deep into history before that has been inducted into the Hall." It’s the second part of that statement that sent me to Baseball-Reference’s Play Index.
Yes, it’s true, every "Winningest Pitcher of the ____s" before Morris is in the Hall of Fame. But is this important? Does anyone know who the winningest pitcher of the 1970s was? Or the 1960s? Or any decade before Morris? It seems that the only pitcher ever mentioned as the "Winningest Pitcher of the ____s" is Jack Morris. This is often a big part of the writer’s argument that Morris should be in the Hall of Fame.
With the "Winningest Pitcher of the ____s" in mind, I decided to look back at the men who hold this title for the previous nine decades to see how Morris compares.
| Range | Pitcher | Decade Wins | Decade WAR | Decade WAR Rank | Decade ERA+ | Decade ERA+ Rank | Career WAR | Career WAR Rank | Career ERA+ | Career ERA+ Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The 1900s | Christy Mathewson | 236 | 61.1 | 2nd | 142 | 4th | 87.7 | 14th | 137 | 11th |
| The 1910s | Walter Johnson | 265 | 90.8 | 1st | 183 | 1st | 127.7 | 3rd | 147 | 3rd |
| The 1920s | Burleigh Grimes | 190 | 32.4 | 9th | 112 | 18th | 37.2 | 158th | 108 | 170th |
| The 1930s | Lefty Grove | 199 | 69.4 | 1st | 162 | 1st | 98.3 | 7th | 148 | 2nd |
| The 1940s | Hal Newhouser | 170 | 50 | 1st | 138 | 1st | 56.3 | 52nd | 130 | 19th |
| The 1950s | Warren Spahn | 202 | 58.6 | 2nd | 126 | 4th | 93.4 | 11th | 119 | 61st |
| The 1960s | Juan Marichal | 191 | 56.7 | 2nd | 136 | 2nd | 64 | 37th | 123 | 37th |
| The 1970s | Jim Palmer | 186 | 52.5 | 5th | 137 | 2nd | 63.5 | 39th | 126 | 29th |
| The 1980s | Jack Morris | 162 | 27.9 | 12th | 109 | 13th | 39.3 | 141st | 105 | 219th |
Yikes! Two of these guys clearly do not belong with the others—Burleigh Grimes and Jack Morris. Most of the other "Winningest Pitchers of the ____s" are among the best pitchers in the history of baseball (Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove) and are more than worthy Hall of Fame pitchers. Every pitcher except Grimes and Morris not only led the decade in wins, but were also among the top five in WAR and ERA+ for that decade. Grimes and Morris, despite leading their respective decades in wins, do not come close to the others in WAR and ERA+. Let’s take a closer look:
Christy Mathewson—Winningest Pitcher of the 00s—From 1900 to 1909, Mathewson won the most games, had the second-highest WAR, and the fourth-best ERA+ of pitchers with more than 1000 innings pitched. In addition, Mathewson won 373 games over 17 seasons with a career ERA+ of 137, good for 11th all-time among pitchers with a minimum of 2000 innings pitched. He is 14th in career WAR. Mathewson was among the inaugural inductees to the Hall of Fame in 1936, getting 90.7% of the vote and joining Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, and Walter Johnson in that first class. He’s a slam-dunk Hall of Fame pitcher, regardless of his status as the winningest pitcher of the 00s. That he won more games than any other pitcher from 1900 to 1909 is incidental to his Hall of Fame credentials.
Walter Johnson—Winningest Pitcher of the 10s—From 1910 to 1919, Johnson won 265 games and accumulated 90.8 WAR with an ERA+ of 183, leading all pitchers in each category. Johnson is in the running for greatest pitcher of all time. He won 416 games with an ERA+ of 147. He is 3rd in career WAR and career ERA+. Of all the "Winningest Pitchers of the ____s" on this list, he’s the best. Johnson, like Mathewson, was part of the first class of honorees at the Hall of Fame in 1936.
Burleigh Grimes—Winningest Pitcher of the 20s—Ack! Grimes is the most-comparable pitcher on this list to Jack Morris and he clearly does not rank with the other Hall of Fame pitchers listed here. While he did win the most games of any pitcher during the 1920s, Grimes was 9th in WAR for the decade and 18th in ERA+. His rank in career WAR is 158th. His career ERA+ is 170th. In his first year of eligibility for the Hall of Fame (1937), Grimes got 0.5 percent of the vote. He received votes in 10 Hall of Fame elections over the next 18 years and never received more than 6 percent of the vote. In 1956, more than 20 years after he’d been retired, Grimes started to gain some traction in Hall of Fame voting when his total increased from 1.2 to 13 percent. Two years later, he was up to 26.7 percent. In 1960, he peaked at 34.2 percent, then dropped back down to 26.9 percent in 1962. He was not elected by the BBWAA but did get into the Hall of Fame in 1964 thanks to the Veteran’s Committee. By most measures, Grimes is among the worst starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame, and possibly THE worst.
Lefty Grove—Winningest Pitcher of the 30s—Grove, like Walter Johnson, has a case as the greatest pitcher of all time. He won exactly 300 games in his career but that total would have been much higher if his debut in the major leagues hadn’t been delayed. Grove won over 100 games for the independently-operated minor league Baltimore Orioles before owner Jack Dunn finally sold his rights to the Philadelphia Athletics, so Grove didn’t pitch in the major leagues until he was 25 years old. In the 1930s, Grove won the most games, accumulated the most WAR, and had the best ERA+ of any pitcher. For his career, Grove is 7th all time in WAR and 2nd in ERA+. He doesn’t need the title of “Winningest Pitcher of the 30s” to seal his Hall of Fame case.
Hal Newhouser—Winningest Pitcher of the 40s—like Grove, Newhouser led his decade in wins, WAR, and ERA+. Unlike Grove, Newhouser is not among the “inner circle” of Hall of Fame pitchers. Newhouser had fewer wins (207) than many Hall of Fame starting pitchers and he got the bulk of those wins in just seven seasons. From 1944 to 1950, Newhouser won 151 games with an ERA+ of 145. He won 80 games over a three-year stretch from 1944 to 1946, when he won back-to-back MVP awards and finished 2nd the third year. In the five years before and after that stretch, Newhouser never won more than 9 games. For his career, Newhouser ranks 52nd in WAR and 19th in ERA+. In 12 years on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, Newhouser was generally in the 20 percent range, peaking at 42.8 percent in 1975, the last year he was eligible. His induction to the Hall of Fame came by way of the Veteran’s Committee in 1992. His place in the Hall of Fame is almost entirely due to his excellent stretch of pitching from ’44 to ’50.
Warren Spahn—Winningest Pitcher of the 50s—Spahn doesn’t have the peak of Grove or Newhouser, but he had a longer career than either and finished with 363 wins. During the 1950s, Spahn had 202 wins, was second in WAR and fourth in ERA+. In his career, Spahn was 11th all time in WAR, but just 61st in ERA+, which ranks him just below Bob Lemon and above Bert Blyleven. Spahn was selected to the HOF in his first year of eligibility in 1973 by the BBWAA, with 83.2% of the vote.
Juan Marichal—Winningest Pitcher of the 60s—Marichal finished second to Bob Gibson in WAR for the decade and second to Sandy Koufax in ERA+. By Hall of Fame standards, Marichal had a relatively short career (16 seasons) and low number of wins (243). The bulk of his career came in 13 years between 1961 and 1973 and he was effectively done as a major league pitcher at the age of 36. Marichal finished his career with 64 WAR, good for 37th all time, and an ERA+ of 123, also 37th all time. It took him three years to be elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA, going from 58.1 percent of the vote to 73.5 percent to 83.7 percent, gaining entry in 1983.
Jim Palmer—Winningest Pitcher of the 70s—Palmer is similar to Marichal. While he did win more games than any other pitcher during the 1970s, he did not lead in WAR or ERA+, finished fifth in WAR and second in ERA+ for the decade. In his career, Palmer had 63.5 WAR, good for 39th place, two spots behind Marichal. He did outdo Marichal in ERA+, finishing at 126 and 29th place all time. Palmer was selected to the Hall of Fame in 1990, his first year on the ballot, getting 92.6% of the vote.
Jack Morris—Winningest Pitcher of the 80s—Now we get to the main man, Jack Morris. All of the pitchers above, except for Burleigh Grimes, not only led their decade in wins, but also finished among the top five in WAR and ERA+ for their decade. These "Winningest Pitchers of the ____s" include three pitchers among the top 15 in career WAR, two others in the top forty, one ranked 52nd in career WAR . . . and Burleigh Grimes, ranked 158th. Back to Morris. During the 1980s, Jack Morris won more games than any other pitcher. He was also 12th in WAR for the decade and 13th in ERA+. The pitchers who had similar value to Morris in the 80s include John Tudor, Bret Saberhagen, Charlie Hough, and Mario Soto. None of those pitchers have sportswriters banging a drum for their Hall of Fame candidacy. In his career, Morris had 39.3 WAR, good for 141st all time, just behind Javier Vazquez and a bit ahead of Al Leiter. His ERA+ is even worse—105, which ranks him 219th, in the company of Tim Wakefield and Ken Holtzman.
When it comes to "Winningest Pitchers of the ____s," Jack Morris is much closer to Burleigh Grimes than any other pitcher on this list. Grimes, as mentioned above, may be the worst starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame. Every pitcher on this list, except Grimes, has a legitimate Hall of Fame case that does not rest on their status of having won more games than any other pitcher during a specified number of years.
If you can’t build a Hall of Fame case for Jack Morris based on traditional metrics, such as wins or ERA (42nd and 326th all time), and you can’t build one on advanced metrics likes career WAR or ERA+ (141st and 219th all time), then you have to build it on one great World Series victory and a mantra, “Winningest Pitcher of the 1980s.” That mantra falls apart upon closer inspection. Jack Morris does not belong in a group that includes Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, or Lefty Grove. He does not belong in a group that includes Warren Spahn, Juan Marichal, and Jim Palmer. He can keep company with Burleigh Grimes, but that does not make him a Hall of Fame pitcher.
Looking Ahead
| Range | Pitcher | Decade Wins | Decade WAR | Decade WAR Rank | Decade ERA+ | Decade ERA+ Rank | Career WAR | Career WAR Rank | Career ERA+ | Career ERA+ Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The 1990s | Greg Maddux | 176 | 61.1 | 2nd | 162 | 1st | 96.8 | 8th | 132 | 17th |
| The 2000s | Andy Pettitte | 148 | 26.8 | 17th | 115 | 15th | 49.9 | 78th | 117 | 71st |
That being said, Morris is on the cusp of entry. He became eligible in 2000 and sat in the 20 percent range for the first five years on the ballot. In year six, he gained 7 percent, up to 33.3 percent. After eight years on the ballot, he was up to 37.1 percent. After 10 years, he was at 44 percent. He made another jump in 2010, held steady in 2011, then made his biggest leap yet in 2012, up to 66.7 percent. He’s close. If he does make it, then the narrative can continue, even if it is misleading.
As quoted above, "Every pitcher that won the most games in a given decade deep into history before that has been inducted into the Hall." Morris has a good chance of continuing this trend. If he does, the next "Winningest Pitcher of the ____s" is a no-brainer Hall of Famer—Greg Maddux. We likely won’t repeatedly hear that Maddux won more games in the 90s than any other pitcher because his accomplishments don’t need that piece of trivia to uphold his candidacy. Maddux won 355 games. He’s eighth all time in WAR and 17th in ERA+. His credentials are beyond reproach.
After Maddux, though, comes another questionable Hall of Fame candidate—Andy Pettitte. Andy Pettitte won more games than any other pitcher from 2000 to 2009, just like Jack Morris and Burleigh Grimes in their respective decades. Also like Morris and Grimes, Pettitte was nowhere near the best pitcher of the decade. In fact, he was 17th in WAR and 15th in ERA+ from 2000 to 2009, marks even worse than Jack Morris in the 80s. For his career, Pettitte is 78th in WAR and 71st in ERA+.
Still, in a few years, when Andy Pettitte hits the ballot and his career accomplishments do not make him a slam-dunk Hall of Fame pitcher, get ready to hear that Andy Pettitte won more games than any other pitcher in the 00s. There will be sportswriters who will use it to support his candidacy, but that piece of trivia shouldn’t make him a Hall of Fame pitcher. It shouldn’t work for Jack Morris either.
References and Resources
WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and ERA+ are from Baseball-Reference. ERA+ or ERA plus adjusts a pitcher's earned run average (ERA) according to the pitcher's ballpark and the ERA of the pitcher's league. Average ERA+ is set to be 100; a score above 100 indicates that the pitcher performed better than average, below 100 indicates worse than average.
For the Decade ERA+ Rankings, I used a minimum of 1000 innings pitched.
For the Career ERA+ Rankings, I used a minimum of 2000 innings pitched.
Bobby Mueller is a long-suffering Pittsburgh Pirates fan (Damn you Francisco Cabrera in 1992!) currently living in the Pacific Northwest. He welcomes comments via e-mail.
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The Hardball Times
Marshall McDougall’s greatest game
by Frank JacksonJanuary 26, 2012
In my collection of approximately 2,300 autographed baseball cards, a large proportion have been obtained at minor league parks. A visit to most minor league team shops will usually yield a set of cards for the local Mudville Nine, and sometimes a set of the league’s best prospects. Getting said cards autographed at the minor league level is much easier and much less stressful than attempting same at a major league ballpark. And over the years, I have come across a fair number of once obscure minor leaguers who went on to major league and, sometimes, All-Star status. No inductees at Cooperstown yet, but I remain optimistic.
Obscure minor leaguers were on my mind on a warm summer evening in 2003 at the Dr Pepper/7Up Ballpark (now known as simply the Dr Pepper Ballpark), home of the Frisco Rough Riders. It was the inaugural year for the stadium and the franchise, then and now the Texas League (AA) affiliate of the Texas Rangers. I took out my minor league cards and scorecards and started matching names and numbers.
At the time none of the names meant much to me, including the Frisco infielder who signed a Texas League prospect card from the year before when he was a member of the Midland Rockhounds, What I didn’t realize at the time was that this young man (he was 24 at the time) was not just another long shot to achieve baseball immortality. He had already done that.
His name was Marshall McDougall. That name may not be a household world, but it looms large in the NCAA baseball record book.
Now before we review McDougall’s achievement, think of the best day you ever had in your life. Now don’t go all soft and gooey and hearken back to the day your son/daughter was born or the day you got married or any of the usual sentimental claptrap. I mean a day when you ruled, when you ran the table, when you took on all comers and bested them all. Now I’m not talking about buying a winning lottery ticket, hitting four trifectas in a row or walking away from your local church bingo parlor with a fistful of cash.
Sure, a certain amount of luck is involved in any achievement, but I’m thinking about a day when all your efforts finally bear fruit in abundance, when all doubts about your abilities are erased. It would be like acing the SAT test, or getting notified you had been accepted by all the colleges you applied to and they were all offering scholarships. Author Truman Capote relates how he sent out short stories with no results for two years, and then he received three acceptance letters in one mail delivery.
That’s the sort of day I’m talking about. Not just a lucky day, but a day that offers vindication of your talents, an assurance that you are truly on the right track. You aren’t just wasting your time or spinning your wheels. On a really good day, you might even entertain notions that you have godlike powers.
Well, think of just such a day—and it’s not a given that you’ve ever had or ever will have such a day—and I guarantee you your best day was nowhere near as good as the day Marshall McDougall enjoyed on May 9, 1999.
On that day, Marshall McDougall and the Florida State Seminoles found themselves at Shipley Field in College Park, Maryland for a game against an Atlantic Coast Conference rival, the University of Maryland Terrapins. Well, on that day it was no contest. Remember how Indians used to make rattles out of turtle shells? That’s one way to envision what the Seminoles did to the Terrapins that day—and Marshall McDougall was right in the middle of his team’s 26-2 victory—on a day when they took no batting practice!
The Seminioles were ranked #4 in the nation with a 43-10 record, which would culminate in a 57-14 record and their 17th trip to the College World Series (where they were eliminated in the title game by the University of Miami). In addition to McDougall, three other players (John-Ford Griffin, Matt Diaz, and Kevin Cash) would go on to play major league ball. It was a typically successful season for the legendary head coach Mike Martin, then in his 20th season (and still at the helm today) at Florida State. The Terps’ record was more modest. They were 21-26 and just 6-14 in the ACC. Only Duke had a worse record. The Terps would finish the season with a forgettable 23-33-1 record.
For McDougall, it was his first visit to College Park. 1999 was his first season playing big-time college baseball. Born December 19, 1978, in Jacksonville, McDougall graduated from Buchholz High School in Valrico, Florida, where he was named to the all-state second team and was drafted by the Chicago White Sox in 1996. From there, it was on to Santa Fe Community College, where he was second team all-state his first year (and was drafted by the Yankees) and first team all-state in his second year. Santa Fe was located in Gainesville, Florida, the hometown of the University of Florida Gators, the Florida State Seminoles’ arch-rival, so how McDougall ended up in Tallahassee rather than remaining in Gainesville is a bit of a mystery.
In 1999 at Florida State, McDougall was a heavy-set (6'1", 200 lbs.) second baseman in his junior year. He had been enjoying a good season, to put it mildly. At the season’s end a few weeks later his batting average was .419, and he led all Division I teams in hits (126), RBI’s (106), total bases (242) and runs (104). He led the ACC in average, runs, hits, RBIs and homers. He was the ACC player of the year and a consensus first-team All-American.
Obviously, Marshall McDougall had a lot of good games in 1999. But none came close to surpassing his game on May 9th. He started off with a single to left in the top of the first inning. No one could have known at the time, but that was the only “underachieving” at bat he had all day. The rest of his day looked like this:
2nd inning - solo home run (his 18th of the season)
4th inning - three-run home run (#19)
6th inning - two run home run #20)
7th inning - three run home run (#21)
8th inning - grand slam (#22)
9th inning - three-run home run (#23)
Now I don’t know where he stood in the ACC before the day started, but by the end of the day he was the home run leader. And if you’re wondering whose record, he broke, it was Henry Rochelle of Campbell University who hit five homers in a 1985 contest against Radford. With his 16 RBIs in one game, McDougall set another record, surpassing the old mark of 14 set by Jim La Fountain of the University of Louisville in a game against Western Kentucky on March 24, 1987 (La Fountain hit three grand slams that day, so he still has his name in the record books for that achievement). McDougall’s 25 total bases is yet another NCAA record.
A game and a season like McDougall had (for good measure, he was chosen MVP of the College World Series, even though the Seminoles came up a game short) cannot help but attract attention. The Red Sox took him in the 26th round of the draft, but McDougall elected to return to Florida State for his senior year. It would have been tough to improve on his junior year, and indeed he backslid a bit, with a .346 average, 15 homers, and 67 RBIs—a good year by any standard except the benchmark McDougall had set the year before. Even so, the Oakland A’s took him in the 9th round of the draft.
He worked his way up in the A’s system, via Vancouver and Visalia, to AA Midland where Baseball America rated him as the A’s 24th best prospect. The A’s traded him to Cleveland for Ricardo Rincón. He played only seven games for the AA Akron Aeros before being injured. He finished his 2002 season with a couple of rehab games for the Mahoning Valley Scrappers. The Rangers took him in the Rule 5 Minor League Draft on December 16, 2002. He spent most of the 2003 season as a shortstop with Frisco (where I encountered him) but also gained his first AAA experience in Oklahoma City. Learning to play third base, he played with the same franchises in 2004.
In 2005 he started the season at a .341 clip with Oklahoma City and got called up by the Rangers as a utility player. Here he garnered his sole big league experience. He spent roughly half the season on the Rangers’ roster and played five positions but only came to bat 18 times, thanks to the fact that the Rangers had a set infield, one that was young and healthy. Then injuries, primarily to his wrist, caught up to him. He later played in the Dodgers and Padres systems but never made it back to the Show.
Along the way, there were stops in the Mexican League and with independent minor league ball, along with more injuries. In 2010 he played for the Uni-President Lions of Taiwan. His offensive stats were solid—he was even leading the team in home runs—but his defense at third base just wasn’t there and he was released in August. He spent the 2011 season with Reynosa of the Mexican league. Where he will spend the 2012 season, at age 33, is an open question at this point.
Given his status as a career minor-leaguer might lead the nay-sayers to denigrate McDougall’s achievement of May 9, 1999. First of all, the University of Maryland was a weak sister in the ACC, and their pitching staff finished the season with a 6.73 ERA. The pitchers he faced (Jamie Hammond, Ryan Fleetwood, and Aaron McFarling) ended the season with ERAs, respectively, of 5.56, 6.68 and 6.97.
His last home run was hit off Kevin McDonald, a position player who was brought in to do some mop-up work. Also, Shipley Field was something of a bandbox with the left field foul pole just 320 feet away, the right field foul pole five feet farther, and a straightaway center field distance of just 380 feet (McDougall himself characterized his six-HR output as “four good ones and two cheap ones”). And, of course, there’s the aluminum bat, rendering all amateur offensive statistics suspect.
On the other hand, you could turn around all these things, and list them as enabling factors rather than mitigating factors. They created the perfect storm, the conditions under which the right individual could hit six consecutive home runs.
When the subject of records that will never be broken arises, this one just might be at the top of the list. First of all, just to tie the record, a batter would have to come to bat six times in a game. That doesn’t happen often. To break the record, one would have to come to bat seven times. The year McDougall set the record, he only had one other game with seven at bats (on June 18, during a 14-11 victory over Stanford in the College World Series). The chances of a player coming to bat seven times in a game are slim.
On the other hand, the NCAA record for hits in a game goes to the Air Force Academy’s John McBroom (now a retired general), who got two hits more than McDougall when he went 9 for 9 in a May 10, 1967 contest against the Colorado Buffaloes. Still, the chances of a player coming to bat a seventh time after hitting home runs in his six previous appearances is slim to the point of non-existent—but in extra inning games, anything can happen. And if you’re looking at consecutive home runs, not just home runs in one game, then six straight home runs spread over two games is always possible.
By contrast, the major league record of four home runs in a game is threatened, at least theoretically, at the start of every game because most position players will come to bat four times in a game unless they are removed early. I suspect we’ll see someone hit five home runs in a big league game before we see someone hit seven in a collegiate contest.
It’s hard to conceive of the euphoria one would feel while trotting around the bases after hitting one’s sixth home run of the day. If you could induce the same brain chemistry via a pill and gain FDA approval, your company’s stock price would soar even in a down market.
Whatever McDougall felt that day, he soon grew tired of talking about his record. But I have to think that if McDougall had not had that record-breaking day, he would not have stuck it out in professional baseball as long as he has. The gods of baseball seduced him by granting him one day of godlike powers. After hitting six home runs in one game, how could he ever feel he was born to be anything other than a baseball player? Would Hercules have attempted as much if he did not know he was a demigod?
Hercules, of course, never had to perform in front of wiseacre baseball fans. One can just imagine the sort of comments McDougall inspired when he stepped into the batter’s box in the minor leagues. I imagine he heard something along the lines of:
"How many homers did you hit today, Doogie?"
"Set any records lately, kid?"
"No aluminum bats in this league, college boy."
But after more than 12 years, McDougall appears to have accepted if not embraced his past.
"You want to be remembered for a lot more than one game," he said, "but you can’t be too upset. It’s better to be remembered for something good than something bad."
Pete Rose, Joe Jackson, Mark McGwire, and Barry Bonds would doubtless agree.
References and Resources
Tampa Bay Tribune, May 9, 2009
http://www.seminoles.com
http://www.uterps.com
http://www.baseball-reference.com
Frank Jackson has published previous baseball articles in National Pastime and Elysian Fields Quarterly. He was weaned on baseball at Connie Mack Stadium.
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The Hardball Times
Players I’ll avoid this year
by Dave ShoveinJanuary 26, 2012
Dave Shovein is a graduate student and aspiring fantasy baseball guru. He welcomes all comments and questions at shove1dm AT yahoo DOT com.
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The Hardball Times
It’s THT Dispatch
by Dave StudemanJanuary 25, 2012
Dave was called a "national treasure" by Rob Neyer. Seriously. Comments about this article can be sent to him through the miracle of e-mail.
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The Hardball Times
THT Forecasts - 2012 Oliver projected-WAR starting lineup
by Greg TamerJanuary 25, 2012
Greg Tamer is the Manager of THT Forecasts. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions via e-mail.
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The Hardball Times
The anticipated return of Wainwright’s curveball
by Harry PavlidisJanuary 25, 2012
Harry Pavlidis admits he has a baseball problem. He is a member of Complete Game Consulting and has his own blog, Cubs f/x. Feedback, questions and comments are appreciated - Email harrypav@gmail.com and Twitter @harrypav
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The Hardball Times
Another Fielder for Detroit
by THT StaffJanuary 25, 2012
The other superslugger free agent first baseman, Prince Fielder, is going to Detroit, where he spent his preteen years while his dad, Cecil, played first base for the Tigers. He joins future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols in jumping to the American League.
Fielder's signing, courtesy of Tigers owner Mike Ilitch, who wants a championship, and agent Scott Boros, who wants, dropped jaws around the baseball world and here at The Hardball Times. There are questions:
{exp:list_maker}He's apparently signing for nine years. He'll be 28 years old this year and, as a Mlwaukee Brewer last year, was listed officially at 285 pounds. In nine years, he'll be 37 and presumably no lighter.
The Tigers already have a first baseman named Miguel Cabrera, generally regarded as one of the top handful of hitters in baseball. And they already have a fine hitter in Victor Martinez, out with an injury this year but expected back in 2013 as a first baseman/designated hitter.
And then there's the matter of money: An average of almost $24 million a year—a little less that Pujols, a little more than Mitt Romney. All told, Detroit has agreed to pay Fielder $214 million between now and the end of his contract. Foresight is 2020. {/exp:list_maker}
Here's what some of our writers had to say:
David Wade:
Full disclosure here: I am a lifelong Detroit Tigers fan. I also write about baseball and often criticize bad contracts that hamstring some teams.
So, while I think signing a big first baseman to a nine-year deal for over $200 million is crazy, it gets crazier when you already have a big first baseman in Miguel Cabrera, who is signed for several more years. And it gets even crazier when you have yet another player—a high-priced catcher—who will likely need to play a great deal of designated hitter or first base starting in 2013. And it gets even crazier when you look at the Tigers' need for an upgrade at third base, for instance.
For crying out loud, everyone knew the Yankees were out of the bidding for many of the same reasons we thought Detroit was.
But it seems Detroit's ownership and management just doesn't give a damn. They have an impact bat from the left side, something they've coveted for years. And while Alex Avila and Victor Martinez helped add punch to the lineup last year, the former will have to catch a bunch of games in 2012 and the latter will miss the entire year.
Plus, Prince is a better hitter than both of them.
So, when switching out my baseball writer hat for my Detroit hat, I find myself very excited about this signing. After all, it's not my money. The only negative that the money can have on me as a fan at all is if it keeps ownership from spending on good players in the future.
While what we've seen in the past does not guarantee what we'll see in the future, it's comforting for the Tigers fan in me to remember that the team's owner, Mike Ilitch, carried Magglio Ordonez' god-awful contract for years and his general manager still found a way to bring elite talent to the roster. Whether it was in trades with quick and expensive contract extensions, free agent signings, or spending over slot on the draft, Detroit has kept bringing in talent for the past few years.
It'll be harder to spend over slot on the draft, given changes to baseball's collective bargaining agreement. But, as long as Ilitch keeps spending his money to make my team better, what do I care if the last five years of Fielder's contract are not a good deal?
As surely some others will point out, Fielder will be only 28 next year. For the next few years he'll probably even be worth the money.
Nick Fleder:
Comerica is a more friendly home park for Prince—the walls in right-center and right field are shorter than those at Miller Park—despite clocking in behind Miller Park in home run rate two years running. He sprays his homers around the field a good amount (this is evidence of that: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2011_678&type=hitter), and whoever is providing him lineup protection will likely be better than the 2011 version of Casey McGehee (perhaps it'll be Jhonny Peralta). He should see more bean balls as a result.
McGehee's struggles must have contributed to Fielder's career-high 32 intentional bases on balls, higher than his previous range of 17-21. Sure, that's not a huge factor, as he might see a boost of only 10 plate appearances in the statistics, but in actuality, pitchers were probably playing it safe with Fielder more often that not last season. Take the following stats as an example of the conservative pitching and resulting aggression at the dish from Fielder: He swung at 31.1 percent of pitches outside the zone (up nearly 3 percent from his career average) and made contact on nearly 10 percent more pitches outside the strike zone last year. Perhaps the luck involved in this equation is another discussion, but his change in approach is certainly noteworthy.
More on lineup: Per my imprecise calculations, the Milwaukee 1-2-3 of Rickie Weeks, Nyjer Morgan and Ryan Braun—who were featured in that order ahead of Prince in 2011—compiled a .368 on-base percentage and stole 57 bases, providing him ample RBI opportunities. If we assume Ordonez is dropped to fifth in the 2011 Tigers lineup, behind Cabrera and the man of the hour, the 1-2-3 of Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch and Cabrera posted—would you know it—a .369 on-base-percentage (though they stole 30 fewer bases). It won't be the most noteworthy transition in terms of lineup adjustment, and the park should be friendly. Overall, a short-term recipe for success.
Now he just has to keep that weight in line, and can't get hung over from the $214 million contract-celebration bash. I can't imagine any scenario in which Fielder provides any sort of return on investment in even the same ballpark, and the most convincing argument for why the Tigers gave up this kind of moolah is the Bucket List wish of 82-year-old owner Ilitch to win a World Series. That, and Boras' deft negotiations. I don't even wanna know what's going on there.
Brad Johnson:
When something unexpected happens that seemingly doesn't make any sense, it's a good policy to wait before offering an opinion. Sometimes, time can offer perspective.
In this case, that perspective might be a second move. At first glance, it doesn't appear that the Tigers can hold onto Fielder, Cabrera and Martinez for the 2013 season. On the face of it, it looks like Detroit will try to play Cabrera at third base or left field and/or trade Martinez. I'm going to pull on my predictions hat and choose hidden answer C: I believe the Tigers may shop Cabrera.
Think about it: They had a franchise first baseman already and opted to sign another one. The incumbent has had recurring off-field problems and isn't exactly a poster child for hard, diligent work. Yet he's also massively talented and still potentially valuable to a large market franchise (the Dodgers have been known to invest in troubled stars). Shifting to Fielder allows them to position a role model as the centerpiece of the franchise. And the marketing department must love the father-son connection.
Myron Logan:
Detroit looked like the class of the America League Central even without Martinez, but the addition of Fielder certainly helps to solidify the Tigers as a true World Series contender.
There's obviously a lot of risk in signing a really big, already below-average first basemen through his age-36 season. Okay, it's downright scary. Further, if it seems like a redundant addition. Cabrera shifted over to first base in 2008 and he hasn't logged significant innings at third since 2007. He's passable at first, but a shift back to the hot corner might not go well. Martinez is signed through 2014 and he's more of a first base/DH-type than a catcher at this point. An infield defense of Cabrera, Fielder, Peralta, and Ryan Raburn/Ramon Santiago has the makings of a ground ball's best friend.
The Tigers are at a point on the win-curve where you could argue that paying a premium for Fielder makes some sense. His addition will give them better playoff odds in 2012 (and in the short-term) and naturally improve their probability of advancing in the playoffs. And you know, flags fly forever. With the inherent randomness of postseason baseball, though, it's dangerous to put so much emphasis on October success. If the Tigers don't break through within the next few years, Fielder's contract will quickly turn into an albatross that never paid major dividends.
Derek Ambrosino:
So, it looks like the Detroit Tigers have chosen to assemble a softball team. How this strategy will influence their ability to win games over the next few years remains to be seen, but from a fantasy perspective this could be a boon. If the Tigers have a realistic intent of playing Cabrera at third base, that would have huge fantasy implications. A third-base-eligible Miggy would immediately vie for consideration as the top overall pick in a fantasy draft. Even the possibility of added positional eligibility nudges Cabrera's ADP up a few spots.
Jeff Gross:
The old adage says like father, like son. The Tigers better hope not, because we all know how Cecil Fielder's 30s went, and the Tigers just signed Prince through his age 36 season. With Martinez out for the year, Fielder fills a role for 2012, but what about 2013 and 2014? Apparently Cabrera has agreed to slide to third, which makes him a potential No. 1 overall fantasy player in my book. Adding Fielder also bolsters the runs/RBI production of rest of the Tigers team. Alas, an infield of Fielder, Miggy and Peralta means Tigers pitchers are going to have to learn to avoid contact this season.
Bruce Markusen
The idea of playing Cabrera at third base, given his current weight, is preposterous. It would be akin to the Giants putting Jim Ray Hart at third, or the Mets putting Dave Kingman at third, and expecting one of them to play the position creditably. Unless Cabrera loses about 30 pounds and makes a conscious effort to improve his footwork and throwing, I think he'll be a disaster. The Tigers should either cut their losses and make him a DH, or trade him.
Short term, the signing of Fielder gives the Tigers a frightful lineup, though they're still lacking a good leadoff batter. Long term, this is a move that is clearly unreasonable. With that body, can we really expect Fielder to still be an effective player in four years, when he's 32? And then at 35, 36, what are those seasons going to look like?
One offshoot of the Fielder signing: Johnny Damon won't sign with the Tigers, where he had expressed interest in going, and may be headed back to New York.
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AL West: offseason check-in
by David WadeJanuary 25, 2012
The Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics will open the 2012 major league season with a two-game series at the Tokyo Dome in Japan, March 28-29. If you are thinking that this is not exactly a riveting and interesting matchup chosen by MLB, you are exactly right, given how the two teams look at that moment.
Most baseball fans will react to the remaining 17 meetings between these two teams in the coming season with extreme indifference. However, those first two in March should generate a great deal of excitement in Japan.
For the host country, the two-game series will represent a homecoming for Seattle right fielder—and Japan's most famous and successful baseball export—Ichiro Suzuki. Unfortunately, the matchup has taken a slight hit since another former Nippon Professional Baseball All-Star, Hideki Matsui, doesn't look like he will return to Oakland's roster for the 2012 season.
But even without him, fans in and around Tokyo likely will be more interested in the series than folks in and around Seattle and Oakland. In fact, it might be that only the staunchest supporters of the green and gold would notice if the A's if they never came back at all.
But they will come back. After they play in front of exuberant crowds in late March, they will return to a park the owner doesn't want to play in anymore, and they probably will play in front of sparse crowds. General Manager Billy Beane is, with the exception of a confusing Coco Crisp signing, whittling the Oakland payroll down to a sliver, and the few recognizable names that were due back from last year's roster will be gone in 2012.
Crisp is a 32-year-old outfielder who is below average with the bat, even if he is above average in the field. In an offseason that's featured trades of Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Andrew Bailey, and seemingly anyone else who is within five years of free agency and not currently injured, the Crisp move doesn't fit in with what has turned into a complete rebuild in Oakland.
It is a plan that Oakland ownership feels is partly due to much-needed roster reconstruction. It's also partly, and very publicly, a declaration that they believe they cannot compete while playing in their current stadium. Oakland owner Lewis Wolff has repeatedly cited the team's current facilities and location as an albatross that will continue to force low payrolls and, subsequently, poor records for his team.
Wolff feels that a move to the very affluent area of San Jose would boost team revenue and allow him to actually keep his good players and even sign better free agents than Crisp now and then. But the San Francisco organization currently has the rights to the San Jose market. For any move there, Wolff will need his fellow owners' approval.
Wolff hopes a move to a new stadium would prompt several years of sellouts and a vast improvement in revenue. Beane hopes he could convert that revenue into results like those the Cleveland organization enjoyed when they moved into Jacobs (now called Progressive) Field. The Indians rode the gate receipts that came with their new stadium to five consecutive playoff appearances.
Without such a move, and barring another innovative strategy that garners results with even smaller budgets than he's had in the past, Beane's chances for inspiring a Moneyball sequel seem slim.
In addition to the revenue problems, Oakland management also knows that the strength of its divisional rivals means the A's probably would fall short of the playoffs even if they had their pick of locations.
The 2010 and 2011 Division Champion Texas Rangers are coming off of back-to-back World Series appearances. While they lost valuable starter C.J. Wilson to free agency, they reinforced their rotation by adding their own Nippon All-Star, starting pitcher Yu Darvish. Darvish hopes to become the biggest thing in the majors since Ichiro, while Texas hopes he lives up to the huge posting fee it had to pay to get him.
Texas paid big because Darvish dominated his competition in Japan. Last season, he posted a 1.44 ERA and struck out 276 batters in 232 innings. Everyone knows the competition is not the same in Japan. Most also know the league used a new type of baseball that sent offensive numbers plummeting across the board.
But even with the benefit of facing inferior hitters and the use of a dead ball in 2011, his numbers in other seasons were still spectacular and give the Rangers reason to believe he'll be successful in the U.S., particularly when several of his starts will come against the struggling offenses of Oakland and Seattle, which feature inferior hitters of their own.
Texas was rumored to have been an aggressive bidder back in 2006 when the Boston Red Sox eventually won the rights to sign Daisuke Matsuzaka, another Japanese starter with a ton of hype. Despite a solid beginning to his major league career, Matsuzaka has not lived up to his contract.
While their paths to the majors and previous successes are similar, Darvish differs from Matsuzaka in both size and pitch selection and more resembles a prototypical major league pitcher than does his predecessor. Texas is banking on a successful transition for Darvish that, combined with a continuation of the offensive success the Rangers have enjoyed the past few seasons, will go a long way toward making them World Series contenders once again in 2012.
THT Forecasts is bullish on Darvish and has him as a 7.0-WAR player for the next six years, and more specifically a projection of an ERA of 2.40, a 0.97 WHIP, and 223 strikeouts in 208 innings pitched in his debut major league season.
Yes, this is just a projection. Yes, that would put Darvish among the best pitchers in the game, and it's not likely he'll post results nearly that high. But it's interesting in that while the forecast is clouded by his lack of innings in the majors, Darvish's numbers dwarf those predicted by the same system for Wilson. It is possible Darvish will significantly outpitch Wilson in the coming years.
Texas' offense remains intact, and as briefly alluded to earlier, it is formidable. If Darvish pitches anywhere close to what Oliver projects as his major league equivalent forecast, about the only knock on the Rangers' offseason will be that there wasn't enough money to make a run at free agent Prince Fielder. Of course, if reports of Fielder's contract with Detroit are accurate, Darvish's contract wasn't as big an impediment as the demands for Fielder were.
Scott Boras had taken his clients deep into the offseason without a deal before, and once again he was able to get a team to meet his exorbitant demands. Even though Fielder would have been a significant upgrade for one of the very few average spots in Texas' lineup, the cost was ultimately too high. That is a good thing for the other teams in the AL West.
Seattle, another of Texas' divisional cohabitants, was also thought to be a possible fit for Fielder. There is little doubt that the slugger would have made a big difference to the Mariners' punchless lineup because it was a lineup that finished last in several important offensive categories last season—hits and runs, among others.
Seattle has worked to improve its offense for next season by trading starting pitcher Michael Pineda to the New York Yankees for their top prospect, catcher Jesus Montero. Montero's bat is so good, and his catching so suspect, that he may play the designated hitter role in Seattle right away in hopes that he can boost the Mariners' run-scoring totals. He will fit in with other young bats that the Mariners have high hopes for, like Dustin Ackley and Mike Carp.
Then there is the final team in this puzzle, and the team that's made the biggest moves so far. As every baseball fan knows, the Angels signed baseball's best player this offseason and dramatically improved their own moribund offense. While the contract for Albert Pujols is one of the largest in baseball history, and like Fielder's may become a burden in its final years, the immediate payoff is a chance to narrow the gap that has grown between the Angels and the Rangers.
Angels owner Arte Moreno decided to spend big after he hired new general manager Jerry Dipito a few months ago. In addition to Pujols, the Angels were able to improve their already daunting pitching staff (and strike a blow to Texas' own pitching) by signing the aforementioned Wilson.
With those two huge signings—and a trade for catcher Chris Iannetta, who will no doubt improve the production from that position over what they've had the past couple of seasons—the Angels figure to have enough talent to compete with Texas for years to come.
Unfortunately for their other competitors, the big-money additions Texas and Anaheim made have widened what was already a large gulf that separated the Mariners and A's from the top two teams in the division.
We know Oakland will probably not be adding any proven major league talent before the season starts. The Mariners are a candidate to rebound a bit from last season's 67-95 record, but as constructed, the A's may have a hard time reaching even 60 wins, which is a total that Texas and Anaheim may be nearing by the All-Star break.
David welcomes comments below. You can reach him via email at david DOT wade AT insightbb DOT com.
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Ask Oliver
by Derek AmbrosinoJanuary 25, 2012
Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com.
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BOB: Astros ponder new look
by Brian BorawskiJanuary 25, 2012
Selig’s extension finalized
Bud Selig’s two-year extension as commissioner of MLB was finalized this week. There was one holdup because of the nature of the extension. Since the contract extension wasn’t on the original agenda for the owners’ meeting, there needed to be unanimous consent from all 30 owners. One owner, John Moores of the San Diego Padres, initially voted no because his sale of the Padres to Jeff Moorad wasn’t approved.As a compromise, they convened and decided to do the vote conducted by return ballot, and Moores voted yes this time. Selig’s extension will make him commissioner through the end of 2014.
Astros’ owner looking at name and uniform change
Jim Crane, the new owner of the Houston Astros, is looking into changing the team’s name and uniforms. Right now, he’s put it out to his consultants and staff members, but it’s looking like he’s targeting a 2013 date, which is when the Astros will enter the American League.The announcement came at an event where several fan initiatives were unveiled. Other programs include a five-percent rebate on full-season and 27-game ticket packages if you buy by January 31, 2012. The cheap seats will see their price cut from $7 to $5, and kids can sit in those cheap seats for just $1. There’s also a newly discounted club-level ticket that costs $35 (formerly $46) and includes $15 in food vouchers.
Dodgers’ sale roundup
There’s not big news coming out camp McCourt, but a bunch of mundane things are happening that are slowly making the sale of the Los Angeles Dodgers a reality. The Dodgers have filed a bankruptcy plan and McCourt put an April 30, 2012, deadline to sell the team.This date coincides with the date Frank McCourt has to pay his ex-wife, Jamie McCourt, $131 million out of the proceeds from the sale. The Dodgers are looking for the blessing from the bankruptcy court on Feb. 22, 2012, so they can move ahead with the sale.
In the meantime, the opening bids for the team are starting to come in. More than 10 opening bids were received from suitors like Magic Johnson, Mark Cuban and Peter O’Malley. These opening bids aren’t binding, so they appear to be more of a reflection of each person’s level of interest in the team.
Mets’ owners look for March resolution in Madoff case
Mets’ owners Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz appear to be getting closer to finally resolving their financial woes. When spring training is heating up, they’ll be in court defending themselves against Irving Picard, the trustee in charge of recovering damages that resulted from the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Picard is looking for $1 billion from the two owners because he thought the two were complicit in the ponzi scheme.Fortunately for the two owners, the amount the two will have to pay has been capped at $386 million, which is the amount they pulled from the fund. There’s also a chance the amount could be as little as $83.3 million, depending on how the proceeds are split up between return of capital and gains. Of course, all of this uncertainty hasn’t done the team any good as they look to be as bad on the field as they were last year.
Athletics must contend with expiring lease in stadium situation
Another month has passed without the league signing off on an Oakland Athletics move to San Jose. Without a stadium even in the works, it means the Athletics probably will remain in Oakland through 2015. The problem is, their lease is up with the city of Oakland and the county at the end of the 2013, which means the city has quite a bit of power in any lease extension negotiations.For now, things are at a standstill. The Athletics sent a proposed lease extension to the city last year, but it got a mixed response. It’s just one more problem that will have to be contended with, and my guess is it won’t get resolved until the relocation issue is taken care of.
Brian Borawski is a member of SABR's Business of Baseball Committee and writes about the Detroit Tigers at his own website, TigerBlog. He welcomes comments, questions and suggestions via e-mail.
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40th anniversary: Dave Winfield and the NCAA basket-brawl
by Chris JaffeJanuary 25, 2012
History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail.
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Fast goes Astro
by Dave StudemanJanuary 24, 2012
Dave was called a "national treasure" by Rob Neyer. Seriously. Comments about this article can be sent to him through the miracle of e-mail.
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The greatest eye in baseball
by Troy PattersonJanuary 24, 2012
As a fan of numbers, I always look for the player who did something better than anyone else. We all know the best power hitters, for instance, but what about something a bit more subjective? When you ask what player had the best eye, you might say Ted Williams' OBP of .482 is a pretty good measure and call it a day, but that wouldn't be much fun, and I also don't think it's the right answer anyway.
On-base percentage is a combination of too many things outside just a good eye at the plate. A great hitter like Williams can use power to add some hits that another hitter might not. So perhaps then walk rate might make the best hitter. That leads us to a similar discovery, though, when we look at the top 15 walk rates of all time.
Name BB% Ted Williams 20.6 Barry Bonds 20.3 Max Bishop 20.0 Babe Ruth 19.4 Ferris Fain 18.4 Eddie Stanky 18.3 Roy Cullenbine 17.8 Gene Tenace 17.8 Jack Crooks 17.6 Eddie Yost 17.6 Mickie Mantle 17.5 Bill Salkeld 17.4 Bill Joyce 17.3 Randy Milligan 17.2 Jack Cust 17.2
So Williams, Barry Bonds, Max Bishop and Babe Ruth seem to be the best all time at taking a walk. Few would complain if we said they had the best eyes in all of baseball, but something doesn't feel right about just using walk rate. When Jack Cust can crack the all-time top 15 in a stat, I have to make sure I'm doing it right.
The next place to look would have to be strikeouts, but K percentage is littered with players at the low end who make good contact and yet can't walk. I decided the best way to go would be BB/K. This list was something completely different and quite surprising.
Name BB/K Joe Sewell 7.39 Monk Cline 6.33 Johnny Bassle 5.4 Cupid Childs 5.26 Tris Speaker 5.20 Eddie Collins 4.23 John McGraw 4.15 Bill Gleason 4.00 Mickey Cochrane 3.95 Tommy Holmes 3.93 Willie Keeler 3.58 Davy Jones 3.56 Dan Brouthers 3.53 Ferris Fain 3.46 Johnny Evers 3.44
At first, the list looks like a bust as nothing matches with our first list, and perhaps we again are seeing a lot of extremely low strikeout guys with okay walk rates. That's not what I set out to find when looking for the greatest eye in baseball history. That's when I noticed one name repeats on both lists. Ferris Fain ranks fifth in baseball history with a walk rate of 18.4 percent, but he also has a walk per strikeout rate of 3.46, making the top 15 on that list. Could Fain be the greatest eye in baseball, or is he just an anomaly that fits the search criteria?
Fain was a first baseman who played only nine seasons, all in the American League, from 1947 to 1955 and had the great nicknames Burrhead and Cocky. He spent time with the Philadelphia Athletics, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians. His debut was delayed due to military service from 1943-1945. His skills were that of the perfect leadoff hitter but odd for a first baseman. In 4,904 plate appearances, Fain carried a line of .290/.424/.396 and led the league in average twice and OBP once. He never struck out more than 7.6 percent in any season and had his best BB/K of 5.12 in 1950.
Fain was a very interesting character and known for a hot temper, which led to several barroom brawls, including a broken hand during a fight after the 1952 season. The temper and the fighting didn't affect him on the field until 1954, when he suffered a broken leg and played only 65 games with his lowest walk rate at 14.2 percent. This, along with the drinking and fighting, seemed to spell his demise. He was still amazing at the plate in 1955 with 114 games and a walk rate of 26.2 percent, but that would be the last season for Fain and what might have been the greatest eye in baseball. At only 34, it's a shame he had only nine years in the majors.
His final fWAR of 31.6 was very good for a player of nine seasons, with a wOBA of .390 and wRC+ of 127. He wasn't a Hall of Fame candidate, but thanks to his amazing eye at the plate, he was an All-Star-level player. Now perhaps we can recognize him as the greatest eye in baseball.
After baseball, things didn't get better for Fain as he was arrested twice for growing marijuana. The first time, he was placed under house arrest, and the second time he received 18 months in prison. In response to questions about his marijuana production, Fain was quoted saying, ''I knew how to grow the stuff. I was as adept at it as I was in playing baseball.'' He died in 2001 at the age of 80, regretting only that his off the field behavior likely kept him from a managerial chance later in life.
Check out more work from Troy at the Boston Red Sox blog Fire Brand of the AL. You can contact him with questions or recommendations email me or @TroyPatterson
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A baseball card mystery: Bob Didier and Cleon Jones
by Bruce MarkusenJanuary 24, 2012
Bruce Markusen is the author of seven books on baseball, including the award-winning A Baseball Dynasty: Charlie Finley’s Swingin’ A’s, the recipient of the Seymour Medal from the Society for American Baseball Research. He has also written The Team That Changed Baseball: Roberto Clemente and the 1971 Pittsburgh Pirates, Tales From The Mets Dugout, and The Orlando Cepeda Story.
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20,000 days since the Phillies integrate
by Chris JaffeJanuary 24, 2012
History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail.
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The virtual 1958-68 Giants, Reds, and Cardinals (Part 8: 1964-65)
by Steve TrederJanuary 24, 2012
Our grand excursion has taken us from the late 1950s fully into the mid-'60s:
1957-58
1958-59
1959-60
1960-61
1961-62
1962-63
1963-64
For the Giants and Reds, it's been a thrill ride of great success, with the only frustration for each franchise being the presence of the other. Meanwhile, frustration has been the constant theme for St. Louis, while in reality the Cards captured a World Championship in 1964.
Giants: Actual Reds: Actual Cardinals: Actual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1958 80 74 3 727 698 76 78 4 695 623 72 82 5T 619 704
1959 83 71 3 705 613 74 80 5T 764 738 71 83 7 641 725
1960 79 75 5 671 631 67 87 6 640 692 86 68 3 639 616
1961 85 69 3 773 655 93 61 1 710 653 80 74 5 703 668
1962 103 62 1 878 690 98 64 3 802 685 84 78 6 774 664
1963 88 74 3 725 641 86 76 5 648 594 93 69 2 747 628
1964 90 72 4 656 587 92 70 2T 660 566 93 69 1 715 652
Giants: Virtual Reds: Virtual Cardinals: Virtual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1958 83 71 2T 747 692 73 81 5 683 637 77 77 4 640 677
1959 87 67 1T 737 615 87 67 1T 802 662 84 70 4 725 685
1960 93 61 1 709 561 76 78 6 705 666 86 68 4 661 632
1961 88 66 2 787 648 106 48 1 813 629 72 82 6 689 724
1962 103 59 1 800 632 101 61 2T 779 663 84 78 6 809 703
1963 97 65 3 726 578 100 62 1 704 540 80 82 6 664 668
1964 100 62 2 726 576 101 61 1 689 533 87 75 4 662 657Who'll get some satisfaction this time around?
The 1964-65 offseason: Actual deals we will make
None. How about that?
The 1964-65 offseason: Actual deals we will not make
Nov. 21, 1964: The San Francisco Giants traded outfielder Jose Cardenal to the California Angels for catcher Jack Hiatt.
We’ve examined this peculiar transaction before:
It was a trade that simply didn't make sense from the Giants' standpoint, and it worked out dismally. Cardenal, given a chance to play with the Angels in 1965, immediately became a solid regular, and played in the major leagues though 1980. Hiatt, with little opportunity to play given the crowd of Giants behind the plate, didn't make the majors to stay until 1967, and never became anything more than a utility player. Cardenal would earn 212 Win Shares in his major league career, while Hiatt earned 48.
Dec. 4, 1964: The Cincinnati Reds traded infielder-outfielder Cesar Tovar to the Minnesota Twins for pitcher Gerry Arrigo.
And this similarly inscrutable one as well:
All along, the Reds’ handling of Tovar was, well, puzzling. After signing him at the age of 17 and immediately making him a first-string second baseman in the minors, the Cincinnati organization spent six years failing to promote this blazing-fast Venezuelan to the major leagues ….Suffice to say that both Cardenal and Tovar presented minor league resumés of the sort that very rarely result in a trade before a chance to play in the majors. Moreover, in neither of these deals does the return provide a sensible explanation.
Instead the Reds swapped Tovar for Gerry Arrigo, who was, to be sure, an intriguing young pitcher: a hard-throwing 23-year-old lefty. But he was one with dubious control, and a minor league track record that paled in comparison to Tovar’s.
But, then, consider this fact: Cardenal and Tovar were both black Latins. And Hiatt and Arrigo were both white Americans.
And, then, consider this fact: in the 15-year period from October 1959 through October 1974, the Giants conducted a total of 95 transactions with other major league clubs. In these deals the Giants relinquished 27 African-American or Latin American players. They acquired just three players of color (Ozzie Virgil in 1965, Nate Oliver in 1968, and Dick Simpson in 1969), all of whom were throw-ins in deals in which the primary acquisition was a white player.
Consider that.
The Reds in this period didn’t demonstrate a pattern that stark. But Cincinnati as well made several key trades that were essentially black-for-white exchanges when they surrendered Curt Flood, Tony Gonzalez, Juan Pizarro, and, of course, Frank Robinson, and these deals were not balanced by trades for significant black talent.
Both the Giants and Reds in the 1950s and ‘60s were bold pioneers, leaders, in the scouting and signing of amateur players of color. The core stars developed by both franchises were black, either African-American or Latin American. But neither franchise demonstrated a corresponding eagerness to acquire players of color in the trade market, and both demonstrated a pattern of clumsy undervaluation of (or at least impatience with) young black players, surrendering them abruptly (in exchange for white players) before giving them a chance to develop: that describes not only these Cardenal and Tovar deals, but also Cincinnati’s Flood, Gonzalez, and Pizarro trades, and San Francisco’s handling of Leon Wagner, Andre Rodgers, and George Foster.
Our Giants and Reds are striving to avoid such blunders. Neither Cardenal nor Tovar will be dealt away here.
Dec. 14, 1964: The Cincinnati Reds traded pitcher Bob Purkey to the St. Louis Cardinals for pitcher Roger Craig and outfielder Charlie James.
Our Cardinals don’t have Craig, and in any case our Reds don’t want to deal away Purkey, who was quite effective in 1964.
Dec. 15, 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals purchased outfielder-first baseman Tito Francona from the Cleveland Indians.
We don’t have a spot for this veteran.
Jan., 1965: The San Francisco Giants traded catcher Tim Talton to the Kansas City Athletics for outfielder George Alusik.
He wasn’t much defensively, but Talton was a good hitter for average. It doesn’t make sense to toss away a left-handed-batting catcher in exchange for a right-handed-batting outfielder for which we have no need.
Feb. 1, 1965: The San Francisco Giants traded pitcher Billy O'Dell to the Milwaukee Braves for catcher Ed Bailey.
As we discussed here:
The lefty O’Dell had been a consistently fine pitcher for the Giants since they’d acquired him from Baltimore in 1959. But he encountered his first off-year in 1964, his ERA ballooning to 5.40, and he lost his spot in the starting rotation.We won’t deal O’Dell at this juncture, but will instead give him a full season to show what he can do as a reliever.
However, O’Dell’s peripherals in 1964 didn’t look nearly as bad as that ERA. Moreover, his starter versus reliever splits in ’64 were extreme: In his eight starts, O’Dell had been blown out with 46 hits in 34 innings and an 8.55 ERA, while in relief he was quite effective, allowing just 36 hits in 51 innings, and posting an ERA of 3.33. At the age of 33, it appeared as though O’Dell was entering the phase of his career in which he might no longer be capable of doing well as a starter, but might thrive in the bullpen.
Feb. 11, 1965: The San Francisco Giants traded catcher Del Crandall to the Pittsburgh Pirates for pitcher Bob Priddy and outfielder-first baseman Bob Burda.
Our version of the Giants doesn't include Crandall, and at this point in our scenario the Pirates have neither Priddy nor Burda anyway.
The 1964-65 offseason: Deals we will invoke
Oct., 1964: The Cincinnati Reds released first baseman Wally Moon.
He’s had a fine run in Cincinnati, but we don’t see him generating any meaningful trade value now. So it’s time to free up the roster room.
Dec. 7, 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals traded outfielder Johnny Lewis to the New York Mets for infielder Elio Chacon and cash.
Actually on this date the Cardinals traded Lewis to the Mets along with pitcher Gordie Richardson for Chacon and pitcher Tracy Stallard. We like Stallard, but we see our Ray Sadecki-less staff as having more need for the left-hander Richardson than the right-hander Stallard.
Dec. 9, 1964: The San Francisco Giants traded infielder Jose Pagan to the Pittsburgh Pirates for infielder Roberto Peña.
Peña is a modest prospect we’ll probably just park in triple-A, but we’re ready to say adios to Pagan’s backsliding performance.
Dec. 14, 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals traded first baseman Bill White to the Cincinnati Reds for outfielder-infielder Curt Flood, catcher-first baseman Don Pavletich, and outfielders Art Shamsky and Ted Savage.
Woah, Nelly!
It isn’t as big a bombshell as when our Cardinals traded away Ken Boyer back in 1960, but this is pretty doggone explosive. And the reasoning is essentially the same as it was for our Cards back in 1960: being honest with ourselves, we simply don’t see our current nucleus as plausibly pennant-bound.
We love White, but he’s in his thirties now, and he’s never going to generate more trade value than he is today. And what a bountiful package of trade value this is. The not-yet-27-year-old Flood has been perpetually in search of a position in Cincinnati, but we love the idea of seeing how he’ll do as a full-time center fielder. And Pavletich and Shamsky are serious young bats.
From the perspective of our Reds, it’s leveraging some of our exceptional depth into a single star performer who’s as well-rounded and consistent as they come. White hasn’t yet begun to decline, so we can confidently expect at least a couple of years of first-rate production.
Dec. 15, 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals traded shortstop Dick Schofield to the San Francisco Giants for outfielder Matty Alou, infielder Gil Garrido, and cash.
So, we embrace the rebuilding spirit in St. Louis. Schofield has been a steady performer, but he’s turning 30 and we don’t see him as the regular shortstop of a future Cardinals championship club. We’ll commit to youth at the position and see what develops, and we’ll give the 26-year-old Alou—who’s stagnated in San Francisco after looking like he might be something special—an opportunity in our outfield.
As for our Giants, a short-term horizon properly prevails. We’ve gotten a decent run from Andre Rodgers at shortstop, but his range is beginning to decline. Schofield shores us up defensively, and allows us to slide Rodgers over to second base.
Dec. 15, 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals traded third baseman Jim Davenport to the Pittsburgh Pirates for pitchers Earl Francis and John Gelnar and cash.
And our St. Louisans will complete the infield bust-up by scrapping the 31-year-old Davenport, who’d hit surprisingly well for us in 1961-62 but then quickly faded. Third base is another spot where we’ll go with kids, while giving the talented-but-erratic Francis and the soft-tossing prospect Gelnar a chance to make the staff.
Feb. 11, 1965: The San Francisco Giants sold second baseman Chuck Hiller to the New York Mets.
Hiller’s batting average has dropped a neat 100 points in two years, which isn’t the sort of thing one often sees. We’ve shopped him around and found no trade offers, so we’ll just take some cash from the Mets instead.
March, 1965: The Cincinnati Reds sold outfielder-first baseman Marty Keough to the Milwaukee Braves.
March, 1965: The St. Louis Cardinals sold outfielder Charlie James to the Houston Astros.
March, 1965: The St. Louis Cardinals sold outfielder Bob Burda to the San Francisco Giants.
Late-in-spring-training roster pruning. Our Giants will stash Burda in triple-A as Walt Bond injury insurance.
The 1965 season: Actual deals we will make
None. So there.
The 1965 season: Actual deals we will not make
May 4, 1965: The Cincinnati Reds traded pitcher Bill Henry to the San Francisco Giants for pitcher Jim Duffalo.
Our Reds never had Henry and our Giants no longer have Duffalo.
May 22, 1965: The San Francisco Giants traded shortstop Jose Pagan to the Pittsburgh Pirates for shortstop Dick Schofield.
We already sent Pagan to Pittsburgh and Schofield to San Francisco.
May 29, 1965: The San Francisco Giants traded pitcher Bob Hendley, catcher Ed Bailey, and outfielder Harvey Kuenn to the Chicago Cubs for outfielder Len Gabrielson and catcher Dick Bertell.
Our Giants don’t have any of those guys, and have no interest in Gabrielson or Bertell anyway.
July 19, 1965: The San Francisco Giants signed pitcher Warren Spahn as a free agent.
We love the wonderful Spahnie, even this superannuated version, but don’t have an opening on the staff.
The 1965 season: Deals we will invoke
June 15, 1965: The St. Louis Cardinals traded pitchers Ray Washburn and Mike Cuellar to the Houston Astros for pitchers Hal Woodeshick and Larry Yellen.
Actually on this date St. Louis traded pitcher Ron Taylor to Houston along with Cuellar in exchange for the standout reliever Woodeshick and so-so pitching prospect Chuck Taylor. Our Cardinals don’t have R. Taylor and do have C. Taylor, so we’ll rework the deal. Washburn has shown flashes, but hasn’t developed as we’d hoped, so we’ll take this opportunity to bolster the bullpen.
June 30, 1965: The Cincinnati Reds sold pitcher Bob Purkey to the Chicago Cubs.
Purkey this year is encountering the kind of struggle that doesn’t bode well for a 35-year-old. He’s been a splendid asset since we acquired him so long ago, but the time has come to cut him loose.
July 10, 1965: The San Francisco Giants sold pitcher Jack Sanford to the California Angels.
As it is for our Giants and the 36-year-old Sanford.
1965 season results
Giants
We’re installing Schofield as our primary shortstop, and having Rodgers compete with Hal Lanier for the second base job. And in the bullpen, we’ll have rookie Masanori Murakami replace the retired Billy Pierce—Murakami is the first Japanese-born player in the major leagues (the next won’t come along for another 30 years), and we didn’t plan for him to be here, but he’s just blown away everyone he’s faced.
But our biggest change is forced upon us by an injury. Orlando Cepeda underwent knee surgery over the winter, and arrives at spring training entirely unable to do anything more than limp to the plate to pinch hit. His absence from the lineup will provide an opportunity for the rookie Cardenal and sophomore Jesus Alou to compete for serious playing time in the outfield, and put extra pressure on Willie McCovey to bounce back from his dreadful 1964 performance.
1965 San Francisco Giants Won 99 Lost 63 Finished 1st
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B W. McCovey* 27 160 540 93 149 17 4 39 92 88 118 .276 .380 .539 .919 152
2B-SS H. Lanier 22 143 418 28 94 12 7 0 31 17 54 .225 .249 .287 .536 48
SS D. Schofield# 30 125 439 44 92 14 1 2 23 44 61 .210 .281 .260 .541 51
3B K. Boyer 34 144 535 66 137 17 2 12 55 58 71 .256 .324 .363 .687 90
RF-CF J. Cardenal 21 100 282 37 72 13 2 6 23 13 40 .255 .286 .379 .665 83
CF W. Mays 34 157 558 118 177 21 3 52 112 76 71 .317 .397 .645 1.042 184
LF-3B J. Hart 23 160 591 91 177 30 6 23 96 47 75 .299 .348 .487 .836 129
C T. Haller* 28 109 349 35 87 4 3 14 42 41 51 .249 .335 .398 .733 103
IF A. Rodgers 30 125 352 41 91 19 1 8 31 43 66 .259 .333 .386 .720 99
OF-1B W. Bond* 27 98 271 31 72 11 1 8 31 28 33 .266 .338 .402 .740 105
OF J. Alou 23 84 260 30 79 13 1 5 26 6 17 .304 .321 .419 .740 104
C J. Orsino 27 71 147 18 35 7 1 6 18 12 32 .238 .305 .422 .727 99
2B B. Schroder* 20 57 83 14 18 2 0 0 5 9 8 .217 .287 .241 .528 49
OF K. Henderson# 19 63 73 10 14 1 1 0 7 9 19 .192 .277 .233 .510 43
C T. Talton* 26 28 39 4 8 1 0 0 4 5 6 .205 .295 .231 .526 48
LF-1B O. Cepeda 27 33 34 1 6 1 0 1 5 3 9 .176 .225 .294 .519 43
Others 114 12 24 3 0 1 7 7 20 .211 .256 .263 .519 45
Pitchers 428 24 67 3 1 2 29 13 143 .156 .172 .181 .354 -2
Total 5513 697 1399 189 34 179 637 519 894 .254 .315 .398 .713 97
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
J. Marichal 27 39 37 24 23 12 1 295 224 78 70 27 46 240 2.14 169
G. Perry 26 33 30 7 9 13 0 206 213 113 98 23 74 178 4.28 84
B. Bolin 26 33 29 4 11 7 0 182 167 65 64 24 62 148 3.16 114
D. LeMay* 26 29 18 4 9 6 0 139 135 65 57 12 41 55 3.69 98
F. Linzy 24 15 12 2 6 1 0 70 74 28 23 4 18 28 2.96 122
J. Sanford 36 17 14 0 4 3 0 68 65 33 31 7 19 33 4.10 88
B. Hands 25 13 10 2 5 3 0 65 69 34 26 4 24 44 3.60 100
D. Estelle* 23 16 10 1 2 3 0 56 57 36 28 5 31 35 4.50 80
S. Miller 37 67 0 0 14 6 20 119 92 27 26 5 29 104 1.97 184
B. O'Dell* 32 53 1 0 9 5 11 100 81 32 24 9 26 73 2.16 167
D. McMahon 35 52 0 0 3 2 7 81 79 36 30 8 31 57 3.33 108
M. Murakami* 21 45 1 0 4 1 4 74 57 31 31 9 22 85 3.77 96
Others 1 0 0 1 0 10 13 9 8 1 9 4 7.20 50
Total 163 44 99 63 43 1465 1326 587 516 138 432 1084 3.17 114
* Throws leftIn St. Louis, Schofield had never been a good hitter, but he hadn’t been a bad one, slapping out a .260-ish batting average and drawing frequent walks. But he shows up in San Francisco and resolutely forgets how to hit. We spend all year waiting for him to snap out of it, to no avail. And Lanier doesn’t hit a lick, either.
Cardenal and Alou aren’t terrible, but Cepeda’s bat is definitely missed, even moreso because Boyer, at 34, finally begins to show his age. Fortunately, Jim Ray Hart proves he’s for real, McCovey does rebound, and Willie Mays—astonishingly, at the same age as Boyer—delivers a staggering season, a power-hitting clinic of historic proportion.
Our pitching isn’t quite the same patchwork quilt of sublime and ridiculous as our hitting, but it’s close. The starting staff behind ace Juan Marichal is shaky—the biggest issue being Ernie Broglio imploding due to elbow trouble—but the Dominican Dandy is tremendous, and so is our bullpen, headed up in scintillating fashion by the ageless Stu Miller.
And Pythagoras is kind to us, as we squeak in at four wins above projection. We need every inch of that extension in order to defeat the extremely tough competition.
Reds
The arrival of White at first base bumps Deron Johnson over to third, where he’ll compete with rookie Tony Perez. That bumps incumbent third baseman Tommy Harper to the outfield, where he’ll assume the platoon/utility role Flood had been filling.
The only other alteration is on the pitching staff, where we’re introducing an exceptionally hard-throwing rookie, Billy McCool, and last year’s rookie sensation reliever Sammy Ellis is promoted to the starting ranks.
1965 Cincinnati Reds Won 98 Lost 64 Finished 2nd
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B B. White* 31 142 472 80 139 23 3 21 75 55 69 .294 .367 .489 .856 133
2B P. Rose# 24 162 670 119 209 35 11 11 84 69 76 .312 .378 .446 .824 125
SS L. Cardenas 26 156 557 67 160 25 11 11 59 60 100 .287 .353 .431 .784 114
3B-1B D. Johnson 26 125 415 68 120 21 4 23 94 38 62 .289 .344 .525 .869 135
RF F. Robinson 29 156 582 111 172 33 5 33 116 70 100 .296 .386 .540 .925 151
CF V. Pinson* 26 159 669 99 204 34 10 22 97 43 81 .305 .349 .484 .833 126
LF T. Gonzalez* 28 108 370 62 112 19 1 15 49 29 52 .303 .356 .481 .837 127
C J. Edwards* 27 114 371 48 99 22 2 17 53 50 45 .267 .351 .474 .826 124
OF-3B T. Harper 24 80 257 52 68 10 1 8 30 32 48 .265 .343 .405 .748 104
3B T. Perez 23 99 253 38 65 13 4 11 45 19 60 .257 .310 .470 .781 111
C J. Azcue 25 71 175 14 41 4 0 2 18 11 29 .234 .283 .291 .574 58
UT C. Tovar 24 74 157 25 38 8 2 2 14 11 18 .242 .287 .357 .643 75
LF J. Lynch* 34 73 121 11 34 1 0 6 20 7 25 .281 .323 .438 .761 107
C E. Bailey* 34 45 80 8 18 3 0 2 13 16 16 .225 .347 .338 .684 89
IF T. Helms 24 21 42 4 16 2 2 0 6 3 7 .381 .435 .524 .959 162
IF C. Ruiz# 26 29 18 7 2 1 0 0 1 0 5 .111 .111 .167 .278 -25
Others 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 -100
Pitchers 449 29 62 7 3 1 19 26 168 .138 .173 .174 .347 -4
Total 5665 843 1559 261 59 185 793 539 963 .275 .338 .440 .778 112
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
C. Osteen* 25 36 36 9 16 10 0 258 238 98 90 21 68 145 3.14 119
J. Maloney 25 33 33 14 20 9 0 255 189 78 72 13 110 244 2.54 148
S. Ellis 24 40 35 13 20 8 2 238 198 105 98 20 94 167 3.71 101
J. Jay 29 41 20 3 9 8 1 156 148 82 72 20 63 104 4.15 90
J. Pizarro* 28 18 18 2 7 2 0 97 105 51 45 10 33 65 4.18 90
J. O'Toole* 28 12 9 1 1 4 1 46 51 37 34 7 21 32 6.65 56
B. McCool* 20 53 2 0 9 9 20 90 78 43 41 8 40 105 4.10 91
J. Nuxhall* 36 47 2 0 6 3 10 99 92 36 35 10 21 81 3.18 118
J. Tsitouris 29 31 2 0 2 4 2 66 62 39 31 7 33 51 4.23 89
D. Zanni 33 28 1 0 1 2 1 52 41 17 13 5 24 35 2.25 167
H. Haddix* 39 24 0 0 3 1 1 34 33 25 15 5 21 21 3.97 94
B. Purkey 35 15 4 1 3 3 1 41 46 28 25 6 11 14 5.49 68
Others 0 0 1 1 0 26 21 7 6 2 10 19 2.08 181
Total 162 43 98 64 39 1458 1302 646 577 134 549 1083 3.56 105
* Throws leftTremendous staff-wide pitching was the key to our pennants in 1963 and ’64. But this year we encounter some serious challenges on the mound. Purkey and Harvey Haddix both finally run out of gas, and Joey Jay isn't sharp. Worst of all, our two top southpaws, Juan Pizarro and Jim O'Toole, both go down with arm trouble, with O’Toole especially ineffective.
Thus Jim Maloney, Claude Osteen, and Ellis emerge as a new top three, and though they’re excellent, they carry a heavy load. Overall our staff is good but not comparable to past versions.
But our hitting, as though responding to a distress signal, heroically rides to the rescue. Pete Rose ignites into stardom, heading a lineup that rolls out relentlessly ferocious thump, carpet-bombing opponents into submission. Our team OPS+ of 112 is the highest achieved by any team since the Boys of Summer were at their towering peak in 1953.
Alas, to the same four-game degree the Giants are helped by the Pythagorean whims, we’re hurt. Our resulting record of 98-64 noses out the Los Angeles Dodgers, but falls just short of the Giants.*
Cardinals
In our revamped lineup, Flood takes over in center field, moving Felipe Alou and his hopefully-healed knee over to right. Lee Thomas moves in from right field to first base.
Another outfielder, rifle-armed sophomore Mike Shannon, is converted to third base, where he’ll compete with fellow sophomore Phil Gagliano. And at shortstop we’re going with youngsters Jerry Buchek and Dal Maxvill.
1965 St. Louis Cardinals Won 85 Lost 76 Finished 5th
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B L. Thomas* 29 143 496 71 139 24 5 23 74 61 36 .280 .358 .488 .845 127
2B J. Javier 28 77 229 20 52 6 4 2 25 8 44 .227 .256 .314 .571 54
SS-2B J. Buchek 23 139 487 45 118 19 7 11 48 37 128 .242 .293 .378 .671 80
3B M. Shannon 25 124 383 40 90 23 4 6 43 39 72 .235 .305 .363 .668 80
RF F. Alou 30 143 555 88 172 30 2 24 78 32 64 .310 .348 .501 .849 127
CF C. Flood 27 150 577 84 179 28 3 10 68 48 47 .310 .365 .421 .786 113
LF L. Brock* 26 155 631 105 182 35 8 16 68 45 116 .288 .340 .445 .785 111
C T. McCarver* 23 113 409 48 113 17 2 11 48 31 26 .276 .327 .408 .735 98
3B-2B P. Gagliano 23 128 399 46 96 15 2 9 46 44 50 .241 .312 .356 .668 81
SS D. Maxvill 26 102 220 17 40 5 3 0 15 21 35 .182 .252 .232 .484 32
C-1B D. Pavletich 26 68 191 23 62 11 1 8 29 24 28 .325 .399 .518 .917 147
OF A. Shamsky* 23 79 178 20 46 7 4 5 19 20 42 .258 .335 .427 .762 105
OF M. Alou* 26 70 108 12 24 4 1 1 6 4 11 .222 .250 .306 .556 50
1B-OF J. Beauchamp 25 46 84 7 17 2 0 1 7 9 18 .202 .284 .262 .546 49
IF E. Chacon 28 36 63 9 15 2 0 1 5 9 8 .238 .324 .317 .642 75
OF T. Savage 28 30 63 7 10 3 0 1 4 6 9 .159 .232 .254 .486 32
C B. Uecker 30 27 58 7 12 3 0 1 4 9 12 .207 .324 .310 .634 73
C D. Ricketts# 29 11 15 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .188 .200 .388 5
Others 48 5 11 2 1 0 8 2 7 .229 .275 .313 .587 59
Pitchers 400 37 62 6 2 7 36 19 155 .155 .182 .233 .415 12
Total 5594 692 1443 242 49 137 631 468 910 .258 .314 .392 .706 90
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
B. Gibson 29 38 36 20 20 12 1 299 243 110 102 34 103 270 3.07 126
L. Jackson 34 39 39 12 16 17 0 257 276 126 115 28 58 132 4.03 96
A. Jackson* 29 34 31 5 12 12 1 185 205 99 88 15 53 113 4.28 91
J. Gelnar 22 11 9 1 2 3 0 63 67 24 23 5 16 30 3.29 118
R. Washburn 27 11 8 1 4 6 0 57 55 27 24 7 12 30 3.79 102
N. Briles 21 15 6 0 2 3 1 55 58 25 24 4 15 31 3.93 99
G. Richardson* 26 13 7 0 1 3 0 54 57 28 26 6 19 38 4.33 90
D. Hughes 27 13 8 1 1 4 0 53 57 31 26 5 25 31 4.42 88
L. McDaniel 29 71 0 0 6 5 2 129 120 46 39 12 48 93 2.72 143
E. Fisher 28 56 13 1 12 8 12 144 126 55 51 13 34 77 3.19 122
H. Woodeshick* 32 41 0 0 3 1 13 48 37 11 9 1 22 31 1.69 230
B. Henry* 37 38 0 0 3 1 4 42 40 17 16 2 8 37 3.43 113
S. Carlton* 20 15 2 0 0 0 0 25 27 7 7 3 8 21 2.52 154
Others 3 3 3 1 2 51 43 16 15 3 15 26 2.65 147
Total 162 44 85 76 36 1462 1411 622 565 138 436 960 3.48 112
* Throws leftSecond baseman Julian Javier, our only holdover regular infielder, breaks a finger and misses half the season, then struggles with the bat when he returns. This widens the window of opportunity for the younger infielders, but no one does much with the chance.
But by and large things go pretty well. Our bench gets a shot in the arm from Shamsky and (especially) Pavletich. With Lou Brock and Flood at the top of the order, and a rejuvenated Alou and Thomas in the middle, we don’t scare anybody but our offense is nudging toward league-average again.
Our pitching is a work in progress as well, as rookie right-handers Gelnar and Nelson Briles are introduced to the rotation in mid-season. But Bob Gibson is terrific, and the bullpen led by workhorses Lindy McDaniel and Eddie Fisher is outstanding.
At the end of the year, we’re still stuck in middle-of-the-pack traffic. However, our Pythag suggests we’re a little better than that, and so much of our key talent is still young that we think—perhaps we're kidding ourselves?—we may at last be headed on the road toward contention.
Next time
We'll enter the final three years of this long-range experiment. Can the Cardinals' persistence be rewarded? Is anyone going to be able to break the San Francisco-Cincinnati stranglehold on first place?
Giants: Actual Reds: Actual Cardinals: Actual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1958 80 74 3 727 698 76 78 4 695 623 72 82 5T 619 704
1959 83 71 3 705 613 74 80 5T 764 738 71 83 7 641 725
1960 79 75 5 671 631 67 87 6 640 692 86 68 3 639 616
1961 85 69 3 773 655 93 61 1 710 653 80 74 5 703 668
1962 103 62 1 878 690 98 64 3 802 685 84 78 6 774 664
1963 88 74 3 725 641 86 76 5 648 594 93 69 2 747 628
1964 90 72 4 656 587 92 70 2T 660 566 93 69 1 715 652
1965 95 67 2 682 593 89 73 4 825 704 80 81 7 707 674
Giants: Virtual Reds: Virtual Cardinals: Virtual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1958 83 71 2T 747 692 73 81 5 683 637 77 77 4 640 677
1959 87 67 1T 737 615 87 67 1T 802 662 84 70 4 725 685
1960 93 61 1 709 561 76 78 6 705 666 86 68 4 661 632
1961 88 66 2 787 648 106 48 1 813 629 72 82 6 689 724
1962 103 59 1 800 632 101 61 2T 779 663 84 78 6 809 703
1963 97 65 3 726 578 100 62 1 704 540 80 82 6 664 668
1964 100 62 2 726 576 101 61 1 689 533 87 75 4 662 657
1965 99 63 1 697 587 98 64 2 843 646 85 76 5 692 622
References and Resources
* Bear in mind that in our scenario, the Dodgers don't have Claude Osteen. Since they were unable to acquire Osteen in the 1964-65 offseason, we assume they didn't trade the key talents they surrendered to the Washington Senators in the Osteen deal, namely outfielder Frank Howard and pitcher Pete Richert. We do assume the Dodgers would have made the rest of that elaborate transaction, and sent third baseman Ken McMullen, pitcher Phil Ortega, and first baseman Dick Nen to Washington in exchange for infielder John Kennedy and a large sum of cash.
The resulting 1965 Dodger team would have Howard taking the roster spot occupied for most of that season by Al Ferrara (because you really don't need two slow, poor-fielding, right-handed-batting, power-hitting corner outfielders on your roster; given the cozy relationship between those franchises, Ferrara would almost certainly have been sold to the Senators). This would have Howard taking playing time away from first baseman Wes Parker and outfielder Lou Johnson, and thus cost the Dodgers defensively but meaningfully help them offensively.
The southpaw Richert would take Osteen's spot. Richert was very good in 1965, about as effective per inning as Osteen, in fact, but Richert wasn't nearly as durable. Thus the 90-plus innings pitched difference between Osteen and Richert would need to be covered by someone else, most likely fellow left-hander Nick Willhite, and that would hurt.
We estimate the bottom line impact to be a slight deficit. We certainly don't see the modified '65 Dodgers winning any more than the 97 games they actually did (without "spreadsheeting" it, we'll go with an estimate of 94 wins), and thus in our scenario they finish third, though not far behind our Giants and Reds.
Steve Treder can often be found spending way too much time talking baseball at Baseball Primer. He welcomes your questions and comments via e-mail.
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The Hardball Times
Putnam f/x
by Lucas ApostolerisJanuary 23, 2012
You can read more of Lucas's work at Beyond the Boxscore and Don't Bring In The Lefty. Also, you can contact him at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or on Twitter @DBITLefty.
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The Hardball Times
Carmona points out an MLB inequity
by Mat KovachJanuary 23, 2012
Indians fan, member of the Duane Kuiper Fan Club, Spitball Researcher, Contact me on twitter, @siddfinch, via email or avian carrier
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The Hardball Times
Career highlights: Orlando Cabrera
by Chris JaffeJanuary 23, 2012
History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail.
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The Hardball Times
Players I like more than you do
by Ben PritchettJanuary 23, 2012
Ben Pritchett can be reached for questions, comments, gripes, or considerations at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or you could follow his whims on twitter @pritchettclan.
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The Hardball Times
Let there be news - Volume 5
by Brad JohnsonJanuary 23, 2012
Let There Be News is a roundup of the most interesting baseball stories from the previous week.
The week of Jan. 22, 2012, was a busy one and, thus, I am going to experiment with the delivery of this column. Instead of the four most interesting stories, I will comment very briefly on more stories and leave a couple of links for each topic. Experiments aren’t useful without feedback, so let me know how you think this presentation compares to previous iterations.
The Rockies sign Jamie Moyer
Given his advanced age, it’s tempting to describe Moyer as ageless, although it’s probably more accurate to say he learned to cope with an old man’s skill set at a relatively young age.
The deal is a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. The Rockies have a crowd of youngsters vying to join the rotation, but only Jorge de la Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin and Jason Hammel can count on rotation slots. Moyer will battle with a plethora of back-of-the-rotation options, including Tyler Chatwood, Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman.
Moyer has long been considered baseball’s version of a gentleman and a scholar, which is to say that he brings a positive (perhaps grandfatherly?) clubhouse presence to the table and serves as a de facto pitching coach. All of the names above could potentially benefit from Moyer’s nearly three decades of experience in professional baseball.
The Rockies acquire Marco Scutaro
This trade tastes weird. Scutaro is a serviceable player who would have been in demand earlier in the offseason when the Cardinals, Brewers and Phillies were all trying to solve their shortstop situation. Now the Rockies acquired him for a song—the cost of his contract (likely below market value) and Claytom Mortensen.
The scouting reports available on Mortensen date from his days as a Cardinal, and hence aren’t terribly relevant. His stats describe a guy who could perform swingman duties or fill out a Triple-A rotation. His fastball averaged 87 mph in 2011. Unsurprisingly, he strikes out few batters, 4.63 strikeouts per nine. His groundball rate is over 50 percent, but it’s not at the kind of elite level that supports his slow fastball and low strikeout rate.
It’s hard to imagine the Red Sox finding utility from Mortensen. This trade was all about freeing up $6 million to spend on pitching and/or the outfield. Roy Oswalt and Cody Ross are rumored to be their top targets. The Sox will move forward with Mike Aviles, Nick Punto and Jose Iglesias at shortstop. Given that downgrade, they must feel very uncomfortable at other positions.
The Rays sign Carlos Pena
Does it feel like Pena belongs with the Rays? He signed a one-year, $7.25 million contract to play first base, which takes pressure off recent signee Luke Scott.
Pena has devolved into a left-handed platoon bat, as evidenced by his .383 wOBA versus righties and .266 wOBA versus lefties. Those samples are small, but it is a problem that has plagued him to varying degrees throughout his career. Assuming the Rays do intend to platoon Pena, Russ Canzler or Brandon Guyer could be the right-handed complement. An additional (cheap) signing is not out of the question.
The Rays could still potentially deal a pitcher or B.J. Upton. However, their weaknesses—catcher and shortstop—are in short supply around the league.
Fausto Carmona is really Roberto Hernandez Heredia
Somehow, the novelty of the whole fake identity game never wears off. It has a superhero feel to it: By day Roberto Hernandez Heredia is a Cleveland-based immigrant-rights advocate. But under the lights, he’s Fausto Carmona, super pitcher (okay, roughly league-average pitcher).
The proliferation of faked identities in baseball also reminds us of the harsher side of the game, where a talented, late-blooming Latin prospect is given fewer opportunities based on age alone.
Given the number of successful major leaguers who have faked their age (if not their identity), perhaps there is an exploitable market inefficiency at play here. Teams already sign older Latin prospects to cheap contracts by the dozens, but perhaps exposure to better opportunities could result in more major league-caliber athletes.
Victor Martinez injures ACL
And he’s likely to miss the season. This is a brutal loss for the Detroit Tigers, but not insurmountable. Martinez lost the ability to be both a catcher and healthy in 2011. Alex Avila’s emergence mitigated the problem, and Martinez was shifted to full-time DH. Now an offseason workout has ruined that plan.
The Tigers will have trouble replacing Martinez’s production, but they already have the start of a useful platoon on the roster in either Ryan Raburn or Delmon Young. A host of declining veteran DHs are still hanging around the free agent market. Several, like Johnny Damon, have the sort of left-handed bat who could help the Tigers in a platoon role.
It will be interesting to see how the Tigers ultimately deal with this loss. Yeonis Cespedes will be much talked about in Detroit over the next few weeks, but the club will probably settle for a much cheaper band-aid.
Rangers sign Yu Darvish
This is where the replacement-level Whirling Darvish pun goes.
The Rangers agreed to a six-year, $56 million deal with Darvish. The signing also means that the Nippon Ham Fighters are set to receive a substantial $51.7 million posting fee. There are a number of incentives that could bring the deal to $60 million or allow Darvish to opt out after five seasons.
It’s a hefty price to pay for the Japanese import, but as Dave Cameron outlines, for any given six-season sample, there are about two dozen pitchers who earn $111.7 million (the full value of his contract) in compensation. The Rangers are essentially saying that they think he will be a top-24 pitcher over the next six years.
This is one of those situations where foresight is 20/200. It’s easy to imagine Darvish being a consistent top-24 pitcher, but baseball is a fickle game. Darvish should help the Rangers in 2012. Based on scouting reports, he is a safer bet to produce in the majors than Daisuke Matsuzaka. Darvish comes to the majors with superior tools at his disposal, but he might take some time to adjust to major league conditions.
Quick hits:
The Astros signed catcher Chris Snyder last week. Humberto Quintero will be relegated to a bench role. The Astros look like they have a fairly interesting team, even if it’s a certain bet to be among the worst in the league.
The Indians acquired Kevin Slowey from the Colorado Rockies. Given the plethora of similarly talented pitchers on the Rockies' roster, it didn’t make any sense for them to hold onto him. The Rockies received righty reliever Zach Putnam. Mark Anderson of Baseball Prospect Nation has more on the trade.
The Athletics signed outfielder Jonny Gomes to join a suddenly quite-crowded outfield. Remember when the team depth chart page had Ryan Sweeney listed as the starter at all three outfield positions?
Mike Morse agreed to a two-year extension with the Nationals worth $10.5 million. The deal covers his final two arbitration seasons.
Pablo Sandoval received a three-year extension worth a rumored $17.5 million from the Giants this past week. As with Morse, it covers his remaining arbitration seasons.
Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com
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The Hardball Times
Ten least-likely guys to break up a no-hitter
by Chris JaffeJanuary 23, 2012
So close.
Not that it matters, but so close.
It’s happened many times in baseball history. A team pitches for nine full innings (or more) and walks away having surrendered just one hit. One hit allowed is almost always enough to win the game, but it’s always enough to keep a pitcher from making a bit of history.
All pitchers would like to throw no-hitters, but it rarely happens. A one-hitter sure beats a loss, but it’s got to be a bit frustrating. If only that one pitch had been a bit different, the game might have been something more than a simple victory.
Oh well. Oftentimes, the guy getting the hit is a star, perhaps even a Hall of Famer. More often he’s at least a solid player. Yeah, but then there are other times. There are times the guy isn’t a star or a role player. He’s someone who, well, sucks. Sometimes the player getting the hit is a guy who has no business whatsoever getting the hit. Yet he did anyway.
Let’s look them up. Who are the least likely batters to be that guy, the only batter standing between the pitcher and a no-hitter?
Since 1919, there have been 958 times in the regular season a team pitched at least nine innings and allowed exactly one hit. There are all also 10 such postseason games on record. So we’re looking for the least likely out of that bunch.
Please note one key qualifier: The team has to throw nine full innings, which does throw out a few games. For example, on Sept. 9, 1965, in one of the most famous pitching duels of all time, Chicago Cubs pitcher Bob Hendley threw a complete-game one-hitter but only went eight innings. The opposing Dodgers turned that hit into a run, and with Sandy Koufax pitching a perfect game, that’s all they needed for a 1-0 win.
It was a great game, but eight innings isn’t nine. We’re looking at the 968 times a team went at least nine innings.
To make the list, we’ll look at a few things. Most importantly is hits per plate appearance (H/PA), as that tells us how likely a guy is to get a hit. Let’s also look at good old-fashioned batting average. Also, let’s note guys who didn’t play much at all, either that season or in their career. If they were so good (and thus deserving to break up a no-hitter), they would’ve played more.
There’s no magic formula for putting this list together, but those are the key factors at work. In general, H/PA means the most.
Okay, with that said, here’s the list:
10. Only three games? Sept. 29, 2007: Florida Marlins’ Paul Hoover (season numbers: 3 H, 8 AB, 8 PA, .375 AVG, .375 H/PA).
The elusive Paul Hoover
Second, his three hits in 2007 weren’t an aberration for him. Though he played in parts of seven seasons, he only has 25 career hits in 40 games. Weird. He keeps making the majors but never gets any playing time.
And here’s a nice added bonus: He wasn’t even supposed to play in this game. Florida’s starting catcher in that day’s game against the Mets was Miguel Olivo.
However, in the fifth inning, Olivo was ejected for throwing a punch at Jose Reyes. (Strangely, Olivo and Reyes were supposedly friends, too).
And Hoover’s hit wasn’t even much of a hit. It was an infield grounder that dribbled so weakly even a backup catcher could beat it out.
One final note, by getting that hit, he prevented John Maine from pitching the first no-hitter in franchise history. A half-century of baseball and the Mets franchise still doesn’t have a no-hitter.
And Paul Hoover, of all people, is one reason why that’s the case.
9. Worst pinch hitter comes through: Sept. 11, 1965: Mets’ Cleon Jones (season numbers: 11 H, 74 AB, 76 PA, .149 AVG, .145 H/PA).
Cleon Jones turned into a nice hitter, but he wasn’t one in 1965. His .149 batting average is the third-lowest for any position player that accounted for his team’s only hit. His OPS+ on the year was seven. That’s right, it was in single digits. His H/PA is “only” sixth-worst among position players, which is why he ranks back here.
Jones wasn’t even supposed to play that day. However, the Mets had pitching problems, and in the fifth inning they needed a pinch hitter for the night’s second reliever. That pinch hitter was Jones, and his single was the only hit Atlanta’s Tony Cloninger allowed all night long.
8. Here’s to you, Mr. Robinson: May 25, 1957: Indians’ Eddie Robinson (season numbers: 6 H, 39 AB, 46 PA, .154 AVG, .130 H/PA)
Eddie Robinson was a nice player for a number of years, but those years were all but over, as 1957 proved to be his final season, and it went out with a whimper. Not only did he get a total of six hits all year (spread out over three teams), but his single on May 25 was his first hit of the year.
To be fair, he hadn’t played much—zero starts and only 14 PA—but it was May 25, and he didn’t have any hits yet. In this game, he got a second-inning double off Chicago’s Dick Donovan for Cleveland’s only hit.
Robinson got three more hits in a doubleheader the next day, and then a pinch-hit homer on May 28. Then he went 1-for-16 in 19 PA to end his career.
7. How could a hitter this bad get so many PA? April 26, 1975: A’s Ray Fosse (season numbers: 19 H, 136 AB, 147 PA, .140 AVG, .129 H/PA)
A few years ago, I wrote an article for The 2011 Hardball Times Baseball Annual on the best and worst benches in baseball history. The 20th century’s worst bench, adjusted for era and park, belonged to the 1975 A’s. Ray Fosse is a big part of the reason that was the case.
His batting average and H/PA are both among the worst ever for a guy who got the only hit. He didn’t just lack hits, he lacked everything. He had five extra-base hits in 82 games played. He walked eight times and stole no bases.
Yet despite playing in a lineup stocked with talent on April 26, Fosse was the guy who laced a single against California’s Frank Tanana. Billy Williams, Joe Rudi, Gene Tenace, Bert Campaneris, Claudell Washington, Phil Garner and Sal Bando all went hitless, as did the lineup’s only never-All-Star, Angel Mangual.
6. Good timing for your only hit of the year. April 21, 1956: White Sox’s Earl Battey (season numbers: 1 H, 4 AB, 5 PA, .250 AVG, .200 H/PA).
Earl Battey was a pretty good player, but for purposes of this list, he has one resounding claim to fame: He’s the only guy to get exactly one hit in a season and have that one hit be the only hit in a one-hitter.
Like Paul Hoover, Battey wasn’t supposed to play this day. Sherm Lollar was Chicago’s starting catcher. But then the White Sox allowed 13 runs in the second inning to the Kansas City A’s, and the team decided to give old Sherm a breather. Battey singled against KC’s Art Ditmar in the fourth inning, and that was all Chicago could do on the day.
5. 26 up, 26 down. April 20, 1990: A’s Ken Phelps (season numbers: 18 H, 120 AB, 143 PA, .150 AVG, .126 H/PA).
Ken Phelps was a Moneyball player before there was Moneyball. He was a masher who drew a ton of walks but was widely ignored because his batting average was never that good.
After a nice run with the Mainers in the 1980s, Phelps was playing out the string by 1990. It was his last season, and he split it with the A’s and Indians, but he had one nice moment of revenge for himself.
On April 20, 1990, Seattle pitcher Brian Holman was one out from throwing a perfect game against the A’s. Manager Tony LaRussa decided to call on Phelps as a pinch hitter, and he responded by bashing a home run.
Phelps wouldn’t get a hit for another week, going 0-for-12 with a walk. He wouldn’t hit another home run ever.
4. (TIE) The Tom Seaver duo: April 15, 1970: Phillies’ Mike Compton (season numbers: 18 H, 110 AB, 121 PA, .164 AVG, .149 H/PA. July 9, 1969: Cubs’ Jim Qualls (season numbers: 30 H, 120 AB, 124 PA, .250 AVG, .242 H/PA).
The Jim Qualls game is more famous, but it’s the Mike Compton game that causes this duo to make the list. Qualls is just piggybacking here.
In the Qualls game, Tom Seaver flirted with perfection. He retired the first 25 batters he faced, fanning 11 along the way. Then came Qualls, the No. 8 hitter in the order, playing in just his 18th major league game. Of course, he singled, becoming the Cubs' only baserunner in the game. Qualls went on to a short career, in which he got exactly 31 lifetime hits, but that includes one some still remember.
Thirty-one lifetime hits is one of the lowest totals ever for a position player that broke up a no-hitter but, improbably, it’s not the lowest by anyone that broke up a Tom Seaver no-hitter.
The year after Qualls, Seaver again got burned by a No. 8 hitter, in this case Phillies catcher Compton. Playing in just his 12th game, he laced out his seventh career hit. Compton ended the season, and his big-league career, with just 18 hits. That’s the fewest career hits by any non-pitcher who got the only hit in a one-hitter.
3. The worst position player ever. Sept. 9, 1993: Padres’ Luis Lopez (season numbers: 5 H, 43 AB, 44 PA, .116 AVG, .114 H/PA).
Yes, it’s only a sample size of 44 PA, but it’s an impressively horrible sample size. Luis Lopez wins the award for worst batting average for a position player who got the only hit. He also has the lowest H/PA. Oh, and his OPS+ of –33 (yes, negative 33) is nearly the worst for anyone, including pitchers.
Oh, and there’s another distinctive feature for Lopez: This was his first career hit. He’s the only position player whose first career hit was the only hit for his team in the entire game. It came off Atlanta reliever Mark Wohlers in the eighth inning. The team had taken out starting pitcher Kent Mercker for a pinch hitter because the game was tied, 0-0. Atlanta won in 10 frames, 1-0.
2. (TIE). Opposing starting pitchers. (Too many to name right here).
Question: How many times has the only hit in a full game come from the bat of the opposing pitcher? Answer: 17 times.
That’s more than I would’ve guessed, but there you go. There’s no sense in discussing them all, so this list will have to suffice. It lists the date, team of the hitting pitcher, his offensive stats on the year and his name. Here they are, in chronological order:
Date Team H AB PA Avg H/PA Guy 6/8/1919 CHW 10 54 63 0.185 0.159 Red Faber 8/27/1925 WSH 42 97 107 0.433 0.393 Walter Johnson 6/9/1947 CHC 7 56 59 0.125 0.119 Hank Borowy 8/30/1948 DET 19 92 108 0.207 0.176 Hal Newhouser 9/13/1951 STL 5 46 46 0.109 0.109 Al Brazle 5/12/1953 CLE 25 91 104 0.275 0.240 Early Wynn 8/22/1958 WSH 11 69 73 0.159 0.151 Russ Kemmerer 5/23/1960 PIT 3 16 16 0.188 0.188 Bennie Daniels 7/15/1963 BAL 16 79 92 0.203 0.174 Robin Roberts 4/13/1964 WSA 14 90 103 0.156 0.136 Claude Osteen 5/4/1966 STL 14 41 45 0.341 0.311 Ray Sadecki 6/29/1974 STL 10 63 73 0.159 0.137 John Curtis 9/21/1986 HOU 9 91 95 0.099 0.095 Bob Knepper 6/8/1992 NYM 3 27 30 0.111 0.100 Anthony Young 8/18/2003 COL 2 13 15 0.154 0.133 Chin-hui Tsao 5/1/2006 COL 8 62 75 0.129 0.107 Jason Jennings 8/13/2010 PHI 10 67 72 0.149 0.139 Cole Hamels
Hamels: The most recent pitcher to ruin a fellow hurler's no-hitter.
Bob Knepper has the lowest batting average, and his game was especially fun because he hit a triple—the only thing preventing San Diego pitcher Jimmy Jones from throwing a perfect game. Weird.
Speaking of opposing pitchers, some of these hits came against Hall of Famers. Bennie Daniels' came against a young Koufax.
Al Brazle’s hit came against Warren Spahn. That’s impressive, especially given that Brazle has the worst OPS+ of them all: -41. Eventually, Spahn would throw a no-hitter, but it took him nine more years.
Whitey Ford had no such luck. He won 236 games in his career but never threw a no-hitter. The closest he ever came was May 12, 1953, when an Early Wynn single got in his way. Ouch.
Yes, Wynn was a good hitter for a pitcher, but that “for a pitcher” is a heck of a qualifier. Also, Wynn’s single was an infield single. Ford lost his no-hitter on an infield single by the opposing pitcher. Ouch, indeed.
Finally, Tsao only had two hits in his entire career, but one of them prevented Steve Trachsel from throwing a no-hitter. I’m not sure which is more embarrassing, having the opposing pitcher ruin your no-hitter or being a team nearly no-hit by Steve Trachsel.
1. (TIE). Relief pitchers. April 28, 1935: Phillies' Orville Jorgens: (season numbers: 6 H, 62 AB, 68 PA, .097 AVG, .088 H/PA. June 28, 1935: Pirates' Mace Brown (season numbers: 4 H, 24 AB, 27 PA, .167 AVG, .148 H/PA
It’s bad enough to lose a no-hitter because the opposing starting pitcher got a hit off of you, but to lose it when a reliever sneaks out a hit? Aw man, that’s as low as it gets.
It doesn’t happen often, but it has happened twice. Incredibly, the two times were exactly two months apart.
On April 28, 1935, something happened to Phillies starting pitcher Euel Moore, and he had to leave the game after facing just three batters. In relief came rookie Orville Jorgens, making just his fifth career appearance. 0-for-2 previously in his career, he managed to lash out a single against Giants pitcher Hal Schumacher.
Jorgens and Luis Lopez are the only guys whose first career hit was the only hit their teams got in a game. Strangely, both ended up having really horrible seasons at the plate.
Two months later, on June 28, 1935, another rookie got his unlikely chance at offensive glory. On that day, Pirate starting pitcher Jim Weaver didn’t have it, nor did initial reliever Ralph Birkofer. That pair allowed eight runs while only recording five outs.
In came pitcher Mace Brown. Like Jorgens, it was just the fifth game for Brown. Unlike Jorgens, he’d previously gotten a hit—one hit, to be exact. On this day, he got his second hit. He also prevented the Cubs from scoring any more runs, but that didn’t matter. Between their 8-0 lead and Roy Henshaw’s near no-hit pitching, the game was already over.
But Henshaw must’ve been bugged that it was only a near no-hitter. If he could have just gotten the reliever out, it would’ve been a no-hitter. He and Hal Schumacher suffered the most annoying way to blow a no-hitter, losing it to a pitcher who wasn’t even supposed to be in the game.
Aside from that, there are plenty of other odd nuggets I discovered about one-hitters while researching this piece. But I’ll save those for another time.
References and Resources
The Play Index at Baseball-Reference.com was vital for creating this list.
I also did a Google search to look up the game account for the Paul Hoover game.
History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail.
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The Hardball Times
Craig Counsell career highlights
by Chris JaffeJanuary 22, 2012
History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail.
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The Hardball Times
Thinking big in Big D in 1950
by Frank JacksonJanuary 20, 2012
Part of the fun of being a fan of minor league baseball is handicapping the talent on display. Who’s got the right stuff to make it to the big leagues? Who’s got what it takes to stay there any length of time? Is it possible I’m seeing one of tomorrow’s Hall of Famers today?
At the Texas League season opener for the Dallas Eagles on Tuesday, April 11, 1950, fans were guaranteed that some members of the team would be in Cooperstown. But how could team officials guarantee such a thing? Were they psychic? No, the reality was that several of the players in the starting lineup were already “immortals” enshrined in the Hall of Fame.
This unique minor league contest was the brainchild of Dick Burnett, a renowned promoter, and the owner of the Dallas Eagles. He desperately wanted to set a Texas League Opening Day attendance record (held by the Fort Worth Cats with 16,018 in 1930).
That was a reasonable target, but Burnett had a problem: His home field in the Oak Cliff section of Dallas had only 10,500 seats. After he purchased the Dallas Rebels (whose previous nicknames included Hams, Giants, Submarines and Steers) before the 1948 season, he spent $250,000 fixing up the ballpark (not given to false modesty, he renamed the park Burnett Field and renamed the team the Eagles), but there was no guarantee, even with standing room, that he could eclipse the Texas League record, at least not without inviting the ire of the local fire marshal.
But "Rampant Richard" Wesley Burnett, your basic Texas multimillionaire oil man, was not one to let details get in his way.
During the late 1940s, the Cotton Bowl, located in Dallas’ Fair Park, had been expanded to more than 75,000 seats, largely because of ticket demand for SMU football games during the Doak Walker era. Some Dallas people were boasting that the Cotton Bowl now held more people than Yankee Stadium. Perhaps that was what put the idea in Dick Burnett’s head to stage a baseball game there.
Thinking big was nothing new for Dick Burnett. After all, when he bought the Dallas Rebels, he paid $550,000 for them—the largest amount ever paid for a minor league franchise. The previous owner, Julius Schepps, had no interest in selling, but when a suitor escalates the price to historic proportions, the seller can’t help but have a change of heart.
Burnett also made Texas League history by bringing in the league’s first organist and first black player (pitcher Dave Hoskins, debuted in 1952 with a 22-10 record, a 2.12 ERA, and 26 complete games and was later inducted into the Texas League Hall of Fame). On the other hand, Burnett was also remembered for hurling a typewriter from the press box to the diamond after a tough loss. Minor league records are often sketchy, but Burnett just might hold the distance record for a Texas League typewriter toss.
Dick Burnett was once described as "the poor man’s Tom Yawkey." It might be more accurate to describe him as an aspiring Tom Yawkey—or even more accurate, an aspiring Tom Yawkey/Bill Veeck. True, he once had dreams of being a big leaguer himself and was a lifelong fan of the game, but he wasn’t just a rich guy who woke up one day and thought, gee, it sure would be fun to own the local Texas League franchise. He had served an apprenticeship of sorts by owning teams at lower minor league classifications.
And he didn’t intend to stop at the Texas League. Several major league franchises were ripe for relocation, and Burnett was definitely interested in bringing big league ball to Dallas. A big crowd at the Cotton Bowl was certain to get the attention of the movers and shakers of major league baseball.
The sheer size of the Cotton Bowl also brought other minor league records into Burnett’s crosshairs. Then, as today, however, there was controversy as to whether the official attendance should reflect the number of tickets sold or the number of people who actually showed up for the game.
In 1940 and 1941, the Jersey City Giants undoubtedly had large Opening Day crowds, but just how big were they? Thanks to some Jersey City political machinations, 56,391 tickets were sold in 1941, but since the ballpark held around 25,000, a number of ticket-holders had to be turned away. The previous year’s Opening Day attendance was estimated at 40,000. So depending on your interpretation of attendance, the minor league attendance record for Opening Day was 40,000 or 56,391.
Another distant target was 52,833, the attendance at a 1944 Junior World Series game, Baltimore hosting Louisville at Memorial Stadium—duly noted as being 16,265 more than any of that year’s major league World Series games, played entirely at Sportsman’s Park in St. Louis.
But those targets, ambitious but reachable, were all for minor league contests. Burnett had his eye on a bigger prize. Newspaper advertisements in Dallas invited fans to come out and establish a new Opening Day attendance record for "organized baseball." So Burnett wasn’t just going after the Fort Worth Cats or the Jersey City Giants. He was gunning for the Yankees, the White Sox, the Indians and the other major league clubs who played in capacious stadiums.
If he could beat the big leagues at their own game, then it followed that Big D was big league. His quest appealed to local politicians, businessmen and civic leaders, many of whom were eager to get involved. J.G. Taylor Spink, editor of The Sporting News, understood what Burnett was striving for and came down from St. Louis to attend the game.
Ticket sales for the game were supervised by the Dallas Jaycees, but the event was kick-started by a First National Bank executive who purchased a block of 15,100 tickets and distributed them to local schools. Surpassing the Opening Day Texas League record was assured. The only question was how wide the margin would be. To induce fans to arrive early, the first fan to arrive in each section was to receive a ball autographed by the immortals in the starting lineup.
But that was not the only reason to get an early start. The schedule called for the Eagles to take batting practice at 5:50, the visiting Tulsa Oilers at 6:10, and the Immortals at 6:30. The pregame ceremonies were set for 7:15 and the game itself was to begin at 8.
Of course, playing a baseball game in a football-only facility presents challenges for the grounds crew as well as the players. Descriptions cite that there was no dirt on the infield, but the grass was cut shorter than the grass in the outfield. The only dirt portions of the field were the pitcher’s mound and the batter’s box. The left and right field fences were described as being barely more than 200 feet away, necessitating a ground rule of two bases for any fair ball hit into the stands. One sportswriter described doubles landing in the end zone and at the 50-yard-line, so it is hard to get an exact picture of the layout. The sportswriters in the football press box needed to field glasses to follow the action on the diamond, so home plate was likely in the far reaches of one of the end zones.
Playing a baseball game in the Cotton Bowl was one half of Dick Burnett’s big idea. The other half was fielding a starting lineup of living legends. Their participation, however, was not immediately assured. Charlie Grimm was all for it, but he was the Eagles manager and he had to be there anyway. Some of the old-timers were reluctant to commit, but once Ty Cobb agreed, they fell into line. After all, if the cantankerous Cobb said yes, then how could anybody else say no?
The starting line-up consisted of:
Home Run Baker 3B (age 64) Duffy Lewis LF (age 61) Charlie Grimm 1B (age 51) Tris Speaker CF (age 62) Charlie Gehringer 2B (age 46) Travis Jackson SS (age 46) Ty Cobb RF (age 63) Mickey Cochrane C (age 47) Dizzy Dean P (age 40)
Tris Speaker and Dizzy Dean were no strangers to the Texas League. Speaker, a native Texan and a second cousin of Dick Burnett, had played with Cleburne in 1906 and Houston in 1907, while Dean had played with Houston in 1930 and 1931 (when he went 26-10 with 11 shutouts and 303 strikeouts) and Tulsa in 1940.
The Eagles’ regular starting lineup, however, had no candidates for Cooperstown, though one of the players was older than Dizzy Dean:
Billy Klaus 3B (age 22) Lew Morton LF (age 30) Heinz Becker 1B (age 34) Vern Washington RF (age 42) Bob Cullins 2B (age 25) Clyde Perry SS (age 23/24) Jim Kirby CF (age 26) Dick Aylward C (age 24) Tom Finger P (age 31/32)
Obviously, the name recognition gap was enormous. But so was the statistical gap. The eight position players of the immortals had a combined lifetime major league batting average of .327 (19,617 for 59,987). At their careers’ end, the eight position players of the Eagles had a combined major league batting average of .250 (720 for 2,876). The bulk of that was Billy Klaus’ contribution of 626 hits. Heinz Becker had 94 hits, while Jim Kirby and Dick Aylward were hitless in their brief stays on major league rosters.
Of the immortals, four (Speaker, Charlie Gehringer, Cobb, and Cochrane) had already been elected to the Hall of Fame. Three more (Home Run Baker, Travis Jackson and Dean would follow. Duffy Lewis and Grimm were the only "slackers" in the bunch. I’m not familiar with the balloting procedures of the Veterans Committee at Cooperstown, but perhaps a clean sweep is still possible.
On the afternoon of the game, the immortals, the Eagles, and 200 invited guests, including Texas Gov. Alan Shivers, started the festivities with a 12:15 luncheon. Each of the old-timers expounded on his biggest thrill in baseball. All went smoothly except for Cobb's turn at the microphone, when he let slip a "goddamn." That utterance horrified the master of ceremonies, local media magnate Gordon McLendon, whose Liberty Radio Network was broadcasting the event.
McLendon was an appropriate choice for emcee, as his network had featured daily major league broadcasts, most of which were in-studio re-creations. McLendon himself, along with Lindsey Nelson and Jerry Doggett (who had two tours of duty as a Dallas Eagles broadcaster and was elected to the Texas League Hall of Fame), had announced a number of re-creations. McLendon was behind the mike at the Polo Grounds when his network broadcast the final 1951 Dodgers-Giants playoff game and Bobby Thomson’s home run heard ‘round the world.
Among his other media achievements, he served as producer for such movies as The Giant Gila Monster and The Killer Shrews (in which he also acted as Dr. Radford Baines) to provide product for his chain of drive-in movie theaters. McLendon probably had one of the most unusual resumes of any of the Bonesmen of Yale University’s legendary Skull and Bones Society.
After the luncheon, the next big event was a parade from downtown Dallas to Fair Park. The nearby town of Greenville, observing its centennial, contributed a high school marching band, as well as a parade of local men who had grown beards as part of the centennial celebration. Most intriguing was a troupe of young women clad in swimsuits with guns and holsters as accessories. I seem to recall a similar scene in Apocalypse Now, but I wouldn’t go so far as to accuse Francis Ford Coppola of plagiarism. He was only 11 years old at the time and reliable sources assert he was not in Dallas the day it all went down.
After arriving at the Cotton Bowl, the players and old-timers took batting practice (Cobb wowed the crowd with his bunting skills) and worked out. The final round of pregame entertainment was provided by the renowned Kilgore Rangerettes drill team, who performed a routine involving miniature white baseball bats. Then Gov. Shivers took the mound (with Burnett as his battery mate) to throw out the first ball.
Finally, it was game time. The Dallas Eagles, fresh off a 15-5 exhibition game victory against the Paris Panthers of the East Texas League, took the field to take on the Tulsa Oilers, the defending Texas League champions. The Oilers, at that time affiliated with Cincinnati, had a roster with a few familiar names. One was Eddie Knoblauch (uncle of major league All-Star Chuck Knoblauch), a minor league veteran who accrued 2,543 hits, mostly in the Texas League, which gained him admittance to the Texas League Hall of Fame. Another was slick-fielding shortstop Roy McMillan (born in Bonham), who debuted with the Reds in 1951 and remained in the National League until 1966.
Yet another was Bob Nieman, who broke into the big leagues with the St. Louis Browns in 1951 and enjoyed a 12-year career with a .295 average and more than 1,000 hits. Yet another was catcher Hobie Landrith, who also made history that evening when he broke his ankle sliding into home plate, thus becoming the only man to ever break a bone while playing baseball in the Cotton Bowl (it was, of course, an accepted occupational hazard for the regular denizens of the Cotton Bowl turf).
Landrith later went down in baseball history as the first man selected by the New York Mets in the expansion draft, so the "jinx" stigma might be appropriate. The Dallas papers duly noted that the unfortunate catcher wore number 13. Even so, he recovered sufficiently to make his big league debut with the Reds a few months later at the age of 20.
Dean, who had a farm in nearby Lancaster, was the starting pitcher for the Immortals. Dean, the youngest of the old-timers, had been working as a broadcaster for the St. Louis Browns. At that stage of his broadcast career, he was so thoroughly disgusted with the feeble Browns that he seriously considered Dick Burnett’s offer to broadcast Dallas Eagle games for $20,000 a year—and might have done so if the Yankees had not come along with an even better offer.
It was not unusual for Dick Burnett to bring in big league talent to a minor league market. Grimm, who took over as the Eagles manager in 1950, had skippered the Cubs for the previous 13 years. Managing the Texas League was undoubtedly a step down in class, but his $30,000 salary was definitely major league in 1950. Burnett doubtless realized that if Dallas was going to become a big league city, it wouldn’t hurt to put out the word that has was paying big league salaries.
In the first inning, Dean went to a full count before he walked Tulsa lead-off hitter Donabedian, then got into an “argument” with the home plate umpire, and was thrown out. His teammates, supposedly in a show of solidarity, followed and the regular starting lineup for the Dallas Eagles took over. Dean, suffering from bursitis, was doubtless glad to keep the pitch count from getting out of hand. "I’ll bet if I had curved the ball, my arm might have snapped off," he cracked.
Donabedian’s "walk" was nullified and he returned to the batter’s box to begin the game anew (this time around, he got a base hit off Tom Finger, who came on in "relief"). This procedure had been well publicized beforehand so none of the fans could claim they had been victimized by a bait-and-switch maneuver.
The final tally showed that 53,378 people showed up for the game. Considering that 54,151 tickets were sold, the turnout was remarkable. Equally remarkable, the police estimated that only a few hundred people left the stadium before the game was over. Even casual fans must have realized that they were witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime event and wanted to see every bit of it. Since arch-rival Fort Worth opened the season on the same date and drew a mere 3,852, one would probably be justified in concluding that more than a few Fort Worth fans had made the trip to Dallas to see history in the making.
And there was the game itself. Oh, yes, they did play a real game—not an exhibition—after all the brouhaha. In that contest Tulsa was victorious by a 10-3 score. In essence, it was a battle of ground-rule doubles won by Tulsa.
Ironically, the Opening Day Texas League attendance record was broken during a year when league attendance plummeted by 350,000. It was a common enough tale in the minor leagues in those days. Thanks to televised major league baseball and other post-war leisure-time activities, minor league baseball attendance was taking a beating. Curiously, the Dallas Eagles were in the forefront of minor league televised ball. The next night’s game at Burnett field was scheduled to be televised.
As it turned out, the Cotton Bowl game attendance was roughly one-fifth of the Eagles’ season attendance. On the field, the rest of the season was lackluster for the Eagles, who finished at 74-78. The bright spot in the season was pitcher Wayne McLeland, who won 21 games and the league’s Most Valuable Pitcher award.
Other than the major league attendance record, Burnett achieved his other goals. He had the Texas League Opening Day attendance record and he also had the Dallas franchise’s attendance record. Curiously, the previous Dallas attendance record had also been set at Fair Park. On Aug. 3, 1924, 16,484 turned out for a Dallas-Fort Worth contest played at a horse racing arena because a July 19 fire had destroyed Gardner Park, the Eagles’ regular park in Oak Cliff. So both franchise attendance records had been set not at the team’s home park but at facilities in Fair Park. Ironically, Dallas had once played home games at Gaston Park located on the state fairgrounds.
The ideal attendance, of course, would have been 75,347, the capacity of the Cotton Bowl at that time, but a full house was not necessary for the night to be a success. “I’m very happy over this turnout,” said Burnett. “I think this proves that Dallas would support a major league team. I’d be willing to take that gamble if I could get a big league franchise."
If you discount the Jersey City shenanigans, the Eagles also set a record for attendance at a minor league game. The Jersey City dispute became moot a few decades later when 65,666 people poured into Mile High Stadium for a July 4 Denver Bears (Triple-A) game and fireworks display. That crowd certainly helped Denver polish its resume when it went courting major league baseball. In fact, the Mile High Stadium total was surpassed on the first day of major league baseball in that facility when the Colorado Rockies hosted 80,227 people on April 9, 1993. The Rockies’ 1993 season attendance of 4,483,350 breaks down to an average of 55,350 per game—better than Burnett’s one-time-only record.
But if you were a baseball fan in Dallas in 1950, you had to love Dick Burnett. "Here’s a guy that is doing everything possible to give the Dallas fans a fine ball club, a fine ball park, and the very best in the way of entertainment," noted Lewis, the Immortals’ left fielder. What more could a fan ask for? In 1950 or 2012? Since Burnett had 100 pdercent ownership of the Eagles and the team was then unaffiliated with any major league franchise, he had about as much independence as any owner in baseball at that time.
Had he not died at age 57 in 1955 (while watching his team play in Shreveport), he might have gotten the jump on Tom Vandergriff, et al. who snared the Washington Senators and brought them to Arlington in 1972. If you had told Burnett in 1950 that major league ball in North Texas was still more than two decades away, he probably would have scoffed. He must have been sorely disappointed to see the likes of Baltimore, Milwaukee and Kansas City get major league franchises while Dallas remained in the wings.
Burnett’s 1950 Cotton Bowl opener didn’t immediately result in a big league franchise, but it occupies a unique place in Dallas sports history. There is no reason to suppose that it must remain unique, however. In other words, baseball history could repeat itself!
Denver’s Mile High Stadium is no more but its minor league single-game attendance record of 65,666 still stands. The Cotton Bowl, on the other hand, is still alive and kicking... at least for football. In fact, in 2008 the capacity was expanded to 92,108. So it would be possible to overturn that Denver minor league record by a large margin.
Indeed, it would be possible to re-create the 1950 event. The Dallas Eagles flew the coop a long time ago, but there is a Texas League franchise located in the Dallas suburb of Frisco. Sure, there would be some logistical details involved—notably setting up a football-only facility for baseball—and the Frisco Rough Riders would have to agree... as would a visiting team (in fact, Tulsa is still in the Texas League, though now called the Drillers, not the Oilers)... as would the Texas League... as would the City of Dallas, which owns the Cotton Bowl... as would Dallas Area Rapid Transit, which would need to run extra trains to Fair Park... as would who knows how many other minor jurisdictional entities.
How many people would show up for such a contest? Well, bringing back the original slate of old-timers is out of the question (unless you want to stage the game at a cornfield in Iowa), but if a fresh supply of old-timers could be persuaded to "start" the game... if the ticket prices were reasonable... if the weather cooperated. A new minor league record could be set. It might make a good Opening Night stimulus, or it might be a great combo deal with a fireworks display, as was done at Denver. A pregame parade wouldn’t hurt either. The atmosphere could be enhanced by making the event one of those turn-back-the-clock nights and giving the players retro uniforms. And 1950 concession prices (beer excepted, of course) would certainly enhance attendance.
I, for one, would show up—as early as possible—and I know I’d have plenty of company. Would it be enough to break the Mile High Stadium record? Would the Cotton Bowl be filled to its current capacity of 92,100? Would it surpass the facility’s record attendance of 96,009 set during the 2009 Texas-Oklahoma football game? I don’t know, but I’d sure like to find out.
As an added attraction, how about bringing back the surviving players from the Eagles and Oilers? Baseball-Reference informs me that Harry Donabedian is still among the living at age 89.
Imagine the Cotton Bowl filled to the brim on a warm Texas evening. The fans are chanting "Har-ree! Har-ree! Har-ree!" The umpire cries, "Play ball," and the PA announcer says, "Leading off for the Tulsa Oilers, second baseman Harry Donabedian." And the crowd goes wild! Make that wilder!
Far-fetched, you say? It was far-fetched in 1950, yet it happened.
I think the only missing piece of the puzzle is Dick Burnett.
References and Resources
Alexander, Charles C., Spoke: A Biography of Tris Speaker. Southern Methodist University Press, Dallas, 2007
Baseball-Almanac.com
Baseball-Reference.com
Dallas Morning News, April 11 and 12, 1950
Dallas Times Herald, April 11 and 12, 1950
Gregory, Robert, Diz: The Story of Dizzy Dean and Baseball During the Great Depression, Penguin Books, New York, 1993
Guinn, Jeff with Bragan, Bobby. When Panthers Roared: The Fort Worth Cats and Minor League Baseball, Texas Christian University Press, Fort Worth, 1999
Holaday, Chris, and Presswood, Mark. Baseball in Dallas, Arcadia Press, Charleston, SC; Chicago; Portsmouth, NH; San Francisco, 2004
Kayser, Tom, and King, David, Baseball in the Lone Star State: The Texas League’s Greatest Hits, Trinity University Press, San Antonio, 2005
Legacies: a History Journal for Dallas and North Central Texas, Spring 1994, “Eagles in the Cotton Bowl: How a Team of Immortals Brought Baseball to a Football Stadium,” by Larry Bowman
O’Neal, Bill, The Texas League 1888-1987, Eakin Press, Austin, 1987
The Sporting News, April 19, 1950
Frank Jackson has published previous baseball articles in National Pastime and Elysian Fields Quarterly. He was weaned on baseball at Connie Mack Stadium.
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The Hardball Times
Card Corner: 1972 Topps: George Hendrick
by Bruce MarkusenJanuary 20, 2012
George Hendrick’s 1972 Topps card has long been a source of puzzlement for this confused card collector. I wondered whether his green and gold A’s uniform was airbrushed by one of the artists at Topps. I couldn’t tell for sure. I solicited the thoughts of some baseball card experts. The consensus maintains that there was no airbrushing involved. Instead, they believe that the brightness of the green and gold comes from the glare of the sun in Arizona, where the A’s have traditionally held spring training. With the sun blinding the sky overhead, the card takes on an unusually brilliant, almost surreal tone.
Rather than a stiff, forced pose, we have an opportunity to see a player in a more sincere moment, the kind of moment that is elusive on baseball cards.
The 1972 season turned out to be a pivotal one in the career of George Hendrick. He had played briefly for the A’s in 1971, but he failed to make the roster out of spring training, instead starting the ’72 season at Triple-A Iowa. Hendrick bided his time in the American Association while fellow prospects Bobby Brooks and Angel Mangual tried to fill the center field gap created by the wintertime trade of Rick Monday to the Cubs. When Brooks and Mangual failed to put a stranglehold on the position, the A’s summoned the lean and lanky Hendrick from the minor leagues. He responded by hitting game-winning home runs in two consecutive games against the White Sox.
Hendrick played well for a brief stretch before showing that he was not ready to handle major league pitching. Hendrick’s wrist-snap batting style reminded scouts of Ernie Banks, who had unusually powerful wrists, but it did not yield the same kind of positive results. So Hendrick became part of Oakland’s revolving door in center field. In addition to Brooks, Mangual and Hendrick, the A’s tried midseason pickups Bill Voss and Downtown Ollie Brown, before finally settling on Reggie Jackson, converted from right field. Hendrick receded into a reserve role, sometimes filling in for Jackson, or starting left fielder Joe Rudi, or whomever the A’s might have in right field on a given day.
Remaining in the shadows for most of the 1972 season, Hendrick found himself in the center of the storm during the postseason. Playing a decisive Game Five of the Championship Series against the Tigers, Jackson injured his hamstring while scoring from third base on the front end of a double steal. Oakland manager Dick Williams called on Hendrick to take Jackson’s place in center field. In the fourth inning, Hendrick reached base on an error by Dick McAuliffe. With Hendrick on second base and two men out, Gene Tenace delivered a sharp single to left field. Hendrick rounded third, swiftly approaching home plate. The fleet-footed Hendrick slid feet first, away from the sweeping glove of catcher Bill Freehan. As Freehan tried to apply a tag, he bobbled the ball, allowing Hendrick to score the go-ahead run.
That run, which would be documented on a 1973 Topps card, would prove decisive. It was the difference in a 2-1 win for the A’s, who advanced to their first World Series since the franchise’s days in Philadelphia.
With Jackson unavailable due to a torn hamstring, Williams decided to move Hendrick into center field for Game One. About an hour before the first pitch, Jackson spent several minutes talking with the rookie outfielder, instructing him on the subtleties of playing center field at Cincinnati’s Riverfront Stadium.
Hendrick played five of the seven Series games against the Reds, but he batted only .133. That winter, the A’s considered the possibility of trading him, in part because of his reputation as a loner who was not very cooperative with the media. According to one wintertime rumor, the A’s considered a trade that would have sent Hendrick to the Rangers for veteran right-hander Dick Bosman, but the deal never took place.
Remaining with the A’s, Hendrick reported to spring training but quickly became unhappy with his situation in Oakland. He met with owner and GM Charlie Finley, who told him that he would not be considered for the starting center field job. The A’s planned to have Hendrick start the season at Triple-A, playing for Oakland’s new affiliate in Tucson. Hendrick, who had experienced the thrill of starting games in the World Series, wanted no part of extended duty in the minor leagues. He asked Finley to be traded.
On March 24, Finley announced a major four-player trade, sending Hendrick and catcher Dave Duncan to the Indians for former All-Star catcher Ray Fosse and utility infielder Jack Heidemann. The trade was especially interesting because of Finley’s decision to make a trade with Cleveland. When Hendrick had asked to be traded, he had expressed an interest in being dealt to the Indians. (I’m not sure why that was the case; Hendrick wasn’t from Cleveland, but from east Los Angeles. Perhaps he just realized that the Indians needed help in the outfield.)
Though Hendrick had been upset by Finley’s initial plan to have him start the season in Triple-A, the young outfielder took something favorable from his time in Oakland. He credited Joe Rudi with helping to make him a more complete player, especially on defense.
The Indians would benefit from Rudi’s tutelage. The Indians could also offer Hendrick a situation that the A’s could not: plenty of playing time. While Oakland’s talented outfield included Jackson and Rudi, and an emerging young center fielder in Billy North, the Indians had more questionable talents in their outfield. On Opening Day, Hendrick started in center field, flanked by journeymen Charlie Spikes in left and Rusty Torres in right. By the end of the 1973 season, Hendrick hit 21 home runs and slugged .452, while establishing himself as the best all-round outfielder on the Indians’ roster.
All should have been well in Cleveland. A few of Hendrick’s supporters lauded his style of play as smooth and effortless, but his detractors considered him lazy. Even opposing coaches criticized Hendrick. “He’s a real dog,” Yankee coach Elston Howard said in a brutally candid interview with sportswriter Dick Young. “You could see that the way he played against us. Half-trying. What a shame.”
Critics aside, Hendrick made the All-Star team in 1974 and ’75. He put up decent OPS numbers, usually in the .760 range, but his defense in center field was found wanting, resulting in a move to right field, and then to left. Though Hendrick didn’t walk much and never hit more than 25 home runs in a season, he emerged as a good, solid everyday player who would hit .280 to .300, steal a base on occasion, cover the ground in an outfield corner, and discourage opposing baserunners with a strong throwing arm.
Yet, a lack of effort continued to cloud Hendrick’s reputation. He would not always run out routine ground balls or pop-ups. In particular, he irritated Indians manager Frank Robinson, an old school baseball man who had played the game with fire and verve. After the 1976 season, the Indians made what would turn out to be a foolish trade, sending Hendrick to the Padres for platoon outfielder Johnny Grubb, backup catcher Fred Kendall and utility infielder Hector Torres. It was exactly the kind of unwise transaction that would epitomize Indian fortunes during the frantic 1970s.
Hendrick responded by putting together his finest season in 1977. So how did the Padres react? They traded him the following year, sending him to the Cardinals in midseason for right-hander Eric Rasmussen. Much like the Indians, the Padres would come to regret the trade.
The move to St. Louis would turn out to be the best break of Hendrick’s career. More a line drive hitter than a pure slugger, Hendrick found St. Louis’ Busch Stadium to his liking, with its big gaps in the alleys and fast artificial turf. Sharing the middle of the order with Keith Hernandez and Ted Simmons, Hendrick boosted his OPS to the .840 range. He hit .300 or better three times for the Cardinals, while reaching the 100-RBI mark twice. In 1982, he became an important part of the Cardinals’ world championship effort, as St. Louis defeated Milwaukee in the World Series. For his efforts, Hendrick earned his second world championship ring.
Hendrick also showed the ability to adjust. After Cardinals manager Whitey Herzog reprimanded him once for not running hard, Hendrick took heed. He started to run out grounders and fly balls. And when the Cardinals made the controversial trade that sent Hernandez to the Mets, Herzog asked Hendrick to move to first base fulltime. Hendrick made the move willingly; in fact, he had been the one to approach Herzog earlier about taking ground balls at first because he was concerned that one day he would no longer be able to play the outfield. Moving to first base without a whimper, Hendrick cemented his standing as a popular player with both his teammates and Cardinals fans.
Although Hendrick played the best ball of his career for the Cardinals, he remained somewhat of an overlooked player. That was partly his own doing, specifically his continuing reluctance to talk to the media. By now, Hendrick was well known as “Silent George,” a player who was unwilling to cooperate with any form of media. (Hendrick reportedly became upset with reports about his off-the-field activities, thus he instituted his ban against the media.) Other detractors called him “Jogging George” or “Captain Easy,” in reference to his past reputation as a player who did not always hustle.
Hendrick also became known for doing things his way. He would let the bottoms of his pant legs all the way down to his ankles, so that they would cover his stockings. He became the first player to do so—everyone else in baseball showed their stockings and stirrups at the time—making him a pioneer in baseball fashion.
After the 1984 season, the Cardinals traded Hendrick, not because of any dissatisfaction with him, but because they needed pitching. Dealt to the Pirates for John Tudor, Hendrick wrapped up a long career with a forgettable tenure in Pittsburgh, followed by a large trade that sent him, John Candelaria and Al Holland to the Angels for three younger players. By now Hendrick was in his late 30s and very much on the decline. After the 1988 season, he became a free agent, but ended up retiring.
To the surprise of many, Hendrick turned to coaching after his playing days. He didn’t seem like the coaching type, given his quiet, laid-back nature, but appearances can be deceiving. He joined the Cardinals, the organization where he had succeeded the most, and later coached for the Angels and Dodgers. He eventually became the first base and outfield coach for the Rays; it’s a position that he has held for the last six seasons.
While he was coaching with the Cardinals one spring training, I had a chance to meet Hendrick. Working as part of a Hall of Fame multimedia crew, I was conducting video interviews for the Hall’s archive. I knew about Hendrick’s reputation for being non-talkative, but I decided to approach him anyway, partly because we had found coaches to be among our best interview subjects. I asked George if he would be willing to answer some questions. He declined politely, explaining that he preferred the spotlight to be on the players, and not the coaches. Even though he had turned me down, he couldn’t have been nicer about it.
My favorable impression of Hendrick was confirmed by one of my cohorts at the Hall of Fame. This person had met Hendrick while he was playing minor league ball for the Burlington Bees in the late 1960s. They talked for two full hours, engaging in a pleasant and wide-ranging conversation. Later on, Hendrick sent my Hall of Fame colleague an autographed baseball.
It turned out that Silent George is a pretty good guy after all.
Bruce Markusen is the author of seven books on baseball, including the award-winning A Baseball Dynasty: Charlie Finley’s Swingin’ A’s, the recipient of the Seymour Medal from the Society for American Baseball Research. He has also written The Team That Changed Baseball: Roberto Clemente and the 1971 Pittsburgh Pirates, Tales From The Mets Dugout, and The Orlando Cepeda Story.
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The Hardball Times
The extra 2 percent: A fantasy market inefficency
by Josh ShepardsonJanuary 20, 2012
Feel free to reach me at my e-mail, JoshShep50 AT Yahoo DOT com with any questions, feedback, or any other general inquiries.
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The Hardball Times
Evaluating a strange offseason in San Diego
by Myron LoganJanuary 19, 2012
Earlier this offseason, we talked about whether the San Diego Padres should rebuild this offseason or try to assemble a contender. Since then, the Padres have made a number of big moves, trading away ace right hander Mat Latos to the Cincinnati Reds, acquiring outfielder Carlos Quentin from the Chicago White Sox, and dealing highly-rated first base prospect Anthony Rizzo to the Chicago Cubs.
Before we get into the specific deals, let's cover a little of the background story. The Padres manic offseason got underway in less-than-ideal fashion when general manager Jed Hoyer abruptly left the organization to join his former boss (with the Boston Red Sox), Theo Epstein, in the Windy City. We discussed Hoyer's shortened tenure with the Padres just last month. Obviously, it's tough to fully evaluate Hoyer's skills as a general manager in two seasons, but he appeared to have a long-term vision for the organization, as he took a run-of-the-mill farm system and quickly turned it into one of baseball's finest.
The vacancy at GM was quickly filled in-house, when the Padres appointed senior vice president of baseball operations Josh Byrnes to the position. Byrnes, like Hoyer, worked for the Red Sox in the mid-2000s. He went on to get his first general manager gig with the Arizona Diamondbacks in November of 2005. He was fired in July of 2010, with Arizona some 20 games back in the NL West.
An important figure in all of this is Jeff Moorad. Moorad was part-owner and CEO of the Diamondbacks when they hired Byrnes as GM. Currently, he's the Padres CEO and leads a group of investors purchasing the team from John Moores. He was still part-owner of Arizona when the sale went down. It's a bit of a convoluted situation (the transfer from Moores to Moorad and company was recently held up by MLB owners), but it's important to establish the idea that Moorad has a relationship with Byrnes and clearly did not hesitate to promote him as GM of the Padres.
Minor moves
The Padres offseason started off inconspicuously enough, with Josh Byrnes sending 27-year-old left-handed starter Wade LeBlanc to the Miami Marlins for catcher John Baker. By both fWAR and rWAR, LeBlanc has performed right around replacement level in 293 and a third major league innings. Despite pitching his home games in Petco Park, a pitcher's paradise, LeBlanc gave up 1.4 home runs per nine and posted a 4.54 ERA during his Padres career. With his fastball velocity limited to the mid-80s, there probably isn't much room for growth, though LeBlanc could certainly put in slightly better than replacement level work in Miami.
John Baker is a 30-year-old part-time catcher who has racked up only 104 plate appearances over the past two seasons. Baker underwent Tommy John surgery on his right arm late in the 2010 season. Questions surrounding his health (and ability to throw out base runners) are prevalent, but Baker did have a nice start to his career with the bat, hitting .281/.364/.423 in 2008 and '09 combined. He's merely insurance behind incumbent backstop Nick Hundley at this point. This is a minor transaction, obviously, and appears to be pretty neutral on the surface. It doesn't tell us too much about Byrnes' long-term approach.
With closer Heath Bell leaving via free agency, Byrnes and the Padres were destined to find a replacement on the market, bypassing such in-house options as Luke Gregerson, Ernesto Frieri, and the less-heralded bullpen-by-committee. San Diego settled on Colorado Rockies right hander Huston Street, dealing a player-to-be-named-later (Nick Schmidt, it turns out) and cash considerations to the Rockies for their closer. Street has one year and $8 million remaining on his three-year, $22.5 million deal (plus a 2013 option).
Street was naturally better early in his career with Oakland (think age and park effects), but he remained effective over the last three seasons in Colorado. Street posted a 3.50 ERA with the Rockies, but put up an impressive 5.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He struggled with the long ball, though, giving up 1.2 HR/9 with Colorado (that number was .6 in Oakland). Street will benefit greatly from swapping Coors for Petco, and there's little reason, outside of the general vagaries of relief performance, not to expect him to be a shut-down closer for the Padres.
Still, you could perceive this move as a little curious for a team coming off a 71-win season. Lefty starter Nick Schmidt isn't a highly-touted prospect and the Padres have a deep system, but $8 million instantly makes Street the highest paid Padre. While he could be worth every penny, you might wonder if those resources could be better spent elsewhere for a team that still appears a year of two away.
Shortly after completing the Street acquisition, the Padres sent outfielder Aaron Cunningham to the Cleveland Indians for right-handed reliever Cory Burns. Cunningham, shipped over from Oakland in the 2010 offseason, debuted nicely in San Diego with a .288/.331/.417 line (147 PAs) in 2010. Still, Cunningham spent most of last season toiling in Triple-A Tuscon, OPSing .931 and waiting until June for another major league plate appearance. He struggled with the big club, but given sporadic playing time, that's not too surprising. With a solid minor league track record, Cunningham could make a decent third or fourth outfielder with the A's.
Cory Burns is a 24-year-old right hander with a Hideo Nomo-like delivery. In three seasons in the minor leagues, Burns has dominated all levels of Single-A and Double-A, recording a 2.02 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and .4 HR/9 in 147 and a third innings. There are obvious questions about how that'll transfer to the majors, but we'll likely find out quickly as Burns could be a contributor to the major league pen in 2012.
Up until now, the Padres have had a pretty standard offseason. They made a couple of roster-filling type moves, adding Burns and Baker. The addition of Huston Street filled a major void in the bullpen after Heath Bell's departure. The Padres were just getting started.
Byrnes puts his stamp on the organization
Padres acquire first basemen Yonder Alonso, catcher Yasmani Grandal, and right handers Brad Boxberger and Edinson Volquez from the Cincinnati Reds for right hander Mat Latos
There were some initial rumblings prior to this deal that Mat Latos might not be in the Padres long-term plans. A few days later, he was gone. Latos was a draft-and-follow back in 2006 and he quickly worked his way through the minor league system. By 2010, he was a 22-year-old ace in a contending Padres rotation, throwing 184 and two thirds innings with a 2.92 ERA and a 3.8 strikeout-to-walk-ratio. Latos regressed last season, but still posted respectable numbers.
He has not quite established himself as a true top tier pitcher yet, as there are some questions about his ability to handle a big workload and some apparent maturity issues. Further, like any other pitcher, he benefited from pitcher-friendly Petco Park and will have to adjust to life in a more neutral environment. Still, Latos is under control for four more seasons and he should be a valuable asset for the Reds. Our own THT Forecasts project Latos to be worth 17 WAR over the next four years, and if he approaches those numbers he'll provide significant surplus value for Cincinnati.
Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal appear to be the key pieces heading to San Diego. Alonso is a 24-year-old first basemen who hit .330/.398/.545 in 98 plate appearances last season with Cincinnati. His prospect status has gradually dropped over the past few seasons as he's failed to put up monster numbers in the minor leagues, never slugging higher than .486. Still, he's a polished line-drive hitter and he's expected to fit better in Petco than the occasionally pull-happy Anthony Rizzo. He should be starting at first base in 2012 for the Padres.
Yasmani Grandal, a 23-year-old catcher, might still be a year or two away, but he raked at High-A and Double-A last season, putting together a .305/.401/.500 line. There are some questions about his defense behind the plate and he still has more to prove with the bat, but he has a chance to be a major coup as a catcher with good power and patience. Nick Hundley is holding down the fort at the major league level, so there's no rush with Grandal. Brad Boxberger, 23, is a right-handed reliever who struck out 13.5 per nine last season in 62 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. His control hasn't been great, but he's dominated so far in the minors. It's not hard seeing Boxberger contributing to the 2012 Padres bullpen.
Edinson Volquez is a wild card, to say the least, but he'll benefit from the move to Petco. Last year Volquez posted a 5.71 ERA in 108 and two thirds innings. He gave up only 30 percent fly balls, but 21 percent of them flew out of the ball park, resulting in 1.6 home runs per nine. Over the last three years, he's given up home runs on nearly 17 percent of his fly balls. Again, with the move to Petco, there might be some hope, as Volzquez still strikes out over 20 percent of batters faced.
Overall, this deal was almost unanimously praised nationally for San Diego. They traded a valuable chip in Latos, but they received too much in return to pass it up. However, the Padres did already have a top first base prospect in Anthony Rizzo, acquired from the Boston Red Sox in the Adrian Gonzalez deal last offseason. Rizzo struggled in his first big league experience last season, but he's a couple of years younger than Alonso and has put up more impressive minor league statistics. More on this soon.
Padres acquire outfielder Carlos Quentin from the Chicago White Sox for right hander Simon Castro and left hander Pedro Hernandez
Carlos Quentin is in his final year of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency. He recently signed a one-year, $7.025 deal with the Padres, avoiding an arbitration hearing. Quentin was a Diamondback when Josh Byrnes was Arizona's GM, and Byrnes dealt him to the Chicago White Sox for first basemen/outfielder Chris Carter in 2007. Quentin went on to have a career year in 2008, blasting 36 homers and hitting .288/.394/.571. He hasn't approached that level since 2008, but he still possesses a solid bat (his OPS+ is 115 from 2009-11).
Quentin has split time between right field and left field throughout his career. The fielding metrics generally agree that he isn't very good out there. His career Defensive Runs Saved is -22. His career UZR/150 is -9.3 runs. Tango's Fans' Scouting Report rates him well below average in each of the past three seasons. As a corner outfielder, Quentin's bat is good-not-great (and moves from hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular to Petco) and his defense leaves something to be desired. There's not a whole lot of value to be added here, especially when a guy like Kyle Blanks is all but forgotten.
The Padres didn't give up any upper-level prospects in the deal, as long as you ignore the fact that righty Simon Castro was rated as a top prospect prior to the 2011 year. Castro's prospect status cratered when the 23-year-old repeated Double-A and posted a 4.33 ERA (his numbers were much worse in 25 and two-thirds innings in Triple-A Tucson). Still, his peripherals in Double-A stayed largely the same and it's hard to believe a guy with a lot of hype last season could fall so quickly. The influx of talent in San Diego's organization certainly didn't help.
Left hander Pedro Hernandez is a small (5-10, 200), 22-year-old who has split time starting and relieving. He's put up some impressive numbers in the minors, including a minuscule 1.5 walks per nine and a 5.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. There are questions about his size and durability as a starter and he may be relegated to the pen, but he certainly isn't just a throw-in here.
While losing Castro and Hernandez isn't going to cripple the Padres minor league system, you have to wonder if it's worth the prospects and dollars to acquire a guy like Quentin. If the Padres were at a different point in the win-cycle, the move would make more sense, but it's unclear if anyone outside of San Diego's brass believes they are ready to compete in 2012.
Padres acquire right hander Andrew Cashner and center fielder Kyung-Min Na from the Chicago Cubs for first basemen Anthony Rizzo and right hander Zach Cates
As mentioned, when the Padres acquired Yonder Alonso in the Mat Latos deal, that gave them two excellent first base prospects. Although they didn't necessarily have to trade one of them right away, they apparently didn't want any playing time issues going into spring training and the odd man out was Anthony Rizzo. Jed Hoyer, who acquired Rizzo while in Boston (via the draft) and San Diego, picked him up again in Chicago for an injury-prone reliever and an unproven center field prospect. The Padres also had to throw in a mid-level pitching prospect in Zach Cates.
Cashner could certainly develop into a shut-down eighth inning guy or closer soon enough in San Diego (it doesn't look like he's destined to start), but you might expect more for a player with Rizzo's minor league track record and general prospect status. Further, it's always dangerous trading a position player for an arm, especially a reliever, when the two player's perceived value is similar. There's a larger injury risk with Cashner and there's limited value for relief pitchers in general. Admittedly, they can often garner quite a bit in return on the trade market (see: Adams, Mike).
Rizzo's value probably took a hit based on his first look in the majors, where he hit .141/.282/.242 in 153 plate appearances last year in San Diego. Further, the Padres may have lost some leverage in dealing him, when it was apparent that Yonder Alonso was higher up on the organizational depth chart. Of course, you can blame that squarely on the Padres who perhaps could have tried dealing Rizzo before they got Alonso or simply held onto both of them until someone offered a better package.
A changing of the guard
Initially, it appeared that replacing Jed Hoyer with Josh Byrnes was merely a formality, and that the organization would march forward on the same path that Hoyer had set. Byrnes and Hoyer are similarly educated (think small Northeast private colleges), they were both in the Red Sox organization in middle of the last decade, and they worked together in San Diego. While Byrnes may have a similar overall approach to Hoyer, he definitely has different thoughts on the specifics of the Padres organization.
Byrnes obviously didn't have much faith in Anthony Rizzo, picking up Yonder Alonso and dealing Rizzo to Hoyer and the Cubs. Further, Hoyer made it clear in San Diego that he was going to trade relief pitching for position players and/or starting pitchers. He dealt Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb to the Marlins for Cameron Maybin and he traded Mike Adams to the Rangers for Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland, for example. Byrnes, on the other hand, traded Rizzo to the Cubs for Andrew Cashner, a reliever. He also acquired closer Huston Street.
Reading between the lines, it seems quite obvious that Jeff Moorad has more trust built up with Josh Byrnes. In a recent interview with Darren Smith (1090 radio, San Diego), Hoyer admitted to being jealous that Byrnes was given the go-ahead to acquire Carlos Quentin and his $7 million salary. Hoyer wasn't given the same flexibility with the Padres, though part of that is certainly circumstantial: the payroll was going to gradually increase in time, regardless of whether it was Jed Hoyer or Josh Byrnes at the helm.
While Byrnes' transactions have been sporadic, to say the least, it's not as though he has failed in his first months as Padres general manager. The Latos haul by itself has a chance to override any of the less significant moves he's made this offseason. There's also more than a small chance that Yonder Alonso outperforms Anthony Rizzo, giving Byrnes a head-to-head win with his former boss. Still, in looking at the entirety of the offseason, it is worrisome that the Padres are suffering from a bit of an identity crisis, building themselves up as a contender in 2012 when the season could have been better spent building for 2013 and beyond.
References and Resources
Baseball Reference and FanGraphs
Myron Logan covers the San Diego Padres at Friar Forecast. Feel free to contact him via email.
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The Hardball Times
On Edgar Martinez
by Richard BarbieriJanuary 19, 2012
In the last round of Hall of Fame voting, Edgar Martinez set a new high in his percentage for the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately, for Martinez, that percentage was barely more than a third of eligible voters. While usually such predictions are left to our Nostradamus of the Hall of Fame ballot, Chris Jaffe, it seems a safe bet that, though Martinez will spend the full 15 years on the Hall of Fame ballot, his chance of being elected is relatively low.
And if it were up to me, that’s just the way it should be. Though Martinez has his adamant supporters—his Baseball-Reference page is sponsored by a fan linking to an article by ESPN’s David Schoenfield in favor of Martinez’ case—I remain largely unimpressed.
Before we get into the reasons I don’t believe Martinez belongs in the Hall of Fame, it is only fair I point out that were he to earn election, he would hardly be the worse choice. The list of players worse than Martinez in the Hall is not a short one and includes names like Lou Brock, Ross Youngs and everyone’s favorite recent inductee Jim Rice.
Having said that, there are three reasons I believe Martinez does not belong in the Hall. These are presented in no particular order, although I’m saving the most subjective—and by extension, probably most debatable—point for last.
(1) He Didn’t Play Enough
This was part of the comment I made explaining why I did not support Edgar in the THT Hall of Fame vote. It was not until Martinez was 27 that he received 500 at-bats in a season. It is almost indisputable that Martinez should have been playing long before that. In 1987, coming off a year when he put up a .329/.434/.473 line at Triple-A Calgary, Martinez earned a September call-up with the Mariners. In just under 50 plate appearances, Martinez hit .372 and slugged .581 for a mediocre (78-84) Seattle team.
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| Like Edgar Martinez, David Ortiz does not spend enough time doing this (Icon/SMI) |
Instead of giving their obviously ready young hitter a chance, in 1988 the Mariners stuck with the dreadful Jim Presley who hit .230 and posted a .635 OPS—worse than all but fourteen batting title qualifiers that year. In a related story, the Mariners went 68-93. Meanwhile, Martinez proved he had nothing else to learn at Triple-A, hitting .363 with a .983 OPS, putting the power into the Calgary Cannons.
The Mariners still didn’t learn from this as it was not until 1990—at age 27, as I mentioned before—that Martinez finally earned a full-time job. Unfortunately for Martinez, though he would be a regular when healthy for the rest of his career, health issues (and later interleague play) limited his action. Martinez played until he was 41 but still only had 10 seasons of 550 or more plate appearances.
For his career, he only came up to the plate 8,672 times. Had the Mariners given Martinez a job when he deserved one—likely before the ’87 season—and he had the benefit of better health, that might be enough to push him over the top of Hall of Fame worthiness.
(2) His Best Wasn’t Quite Great Enough
There’s no denying that at his best Martinez was a tremendous hitter. In 1995, he won the American League batting title, while also leading in good measure in runs, doubles, and slugging percentage. Just to prove this was no fluke of the hitter-friendly Kingdome, Martinez led the league in OPS+ by six points over Frank Thomas. Further cementing his legend, Martinez terrorized the Yankees—and by extension, my 11-year old self—in the ALDS putting up a ridiculous .571/.667/1.000 line which included the series-winning double.
Despite this, Martinez simply does not have the numbers to support his induction. As someone whose Hall of Fame has to be defined entirely by offensive production—and despite playing in a strong hitters ballpark for much of his career—Martinez’ ranks in offensive statistics are underwhelming. In the “Black Ink Test,” which rewards a player for leading his league in meaningful statistics, Martinez accumulated fewer points in his entire career than names like Ryan Howard and Don Mattingly. As great as Martinez could be, he was never quite as dominating a hitter as people sometimes remember.
(3) Being a DH is Easy
As mentioned earlier, this one is subjective. Nonetheless, I think it is a major part of why Martinez does not belong in the Hall of Fame. For his career, Martinez played less than 600 games in the field. After suffering an injury—something of a fluke owing to a temporary field at Vancouver’s BC Place stadium—before the 1993 season, Martinez was essentially finished as a defensive player. Martinez’ last season of more than 100 defensive games was in 1992, and by the time the strike was resolved prior to the 1995 season it was clear that Martinez’ days as anything but a DH were essentially over. (And indeed, from 1995 until he retired, he played well under 50 games in the field.)
This means that from 1995 on, Martinez had all the benefits that being a DH has. He could train in the off-season able to focus entirely on hitting, with no concerns for his defense. Martinez never had to come to the plate after spending a day in the field in roasting August heat or freezing April sleet. A DH never has to bat having just endured a rough slide on a double play, nor had the wind knocked out of him diving for a ball in the outfield.
Most statistical measures attempt to account for a DH in some manner, usually centered on penalizing them for their defense—or lack thereof. This is something which obviously needs to be accounted for, but I remain convinced that the standard for a full-time DH needs to be set tremendously high when you consider the multitude of inherent advantages.
As I said at the outset, while Martinez would hardly be the worst choice for the Hall of Fame—I’d still rather see him in than Jack Morris—I would not be giving him my vote, a view it appears I share with the majority of the Hall’s voters.
Questions, comments and thinly veiled threats can be mailed to Richard on the back of a twenty dollar bill or e-mailed to him at RichardBarbieri@yahoo.com
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Searching for sleepers
by Nick FlederJanuary 19, 2012
Nick Fleder has been a die-hard Yankee fan since birth and has played fantasy baseball obsessively since around the age of ten. He can be reached for all inquiries or comments at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). You can ask him any baseball or fantasy baseball related questions on Twitter: @fishfle
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SABR Analytics Conference
by Dave StudemanJanuary 18, 2012
Dave was called a "national treasure" by Rob Neyer. Seriously. Comments about this article can be sent to him through the miracle of e-mail.
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BOB: Mets owner scores another win in court
by Brian BorawskiJanuary 18, 2012
Bud Selig signs two year extension
We thought Bud Selig's reign as commissioner of MLB would be over at the end of 2012, but depending on who believe, Selig either changed his mind to take care of some unfinished business or was coaxed into serving for another two years for the good of the league. If you carve out Selig's last five or six years, I guess you can defend the move, but you know the biggest reason Selig was being kept on is because he's one of the owners' best friends.It also means we go an extra two years trying to determine who the next commissioner will be. At this point, by the time Selig is done, all of the old potential heirs will be retired, and we'll have a brand new plate of potential suitors for the job.
Mets owners win again in court
A federal judge said that Irving Picard, the trustee in charge of the Bernie Madoff scandal, can't immediately appeal the ruling that limits the amount that New York Mets owner Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz will have to pay back because of their gains in Madoff's fund. At this point, the judge limited the amount the two owners would have to pay to $386 million while Picard was looking for $1 billion.This is definitely good news for the two owners, but they still have to deal with their sinking ship in the New York Mets. Now they just need to turn this into a marketing campaign to try to draw those investors in the team to help right the ship.
Dodgers and Fox settle media rights dispute
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Fox Sports settled their dispute that will now clear the way for Frank McCourt to sell the team. With the help of a court-appointed mediator, the two sides agreed that the Dodgers won't shop for a new television deal until after Fox's 45-day exclusive negotiating window expires after the end of the season. This wasn't a huge surprise because a judge basically said that this was how he was going to rule, which put the Dodgers' backs against the wall.This agreement ultimately could decrease the amount McCourt will get from the sale because it creates some revenue uncertainty. New owners now would have to go in not knowing how much television money they'll be getting as early as the 2013 season.
Athletics' ballpark a priority for Selig
I'm not sure why he choose after getting a two-year extension to announce this, but Selig said that one of his first orders of business is to resolve the Oakland Athletics stadium situation. Apparently, the special commission that has been examining the issue for well more than two years has issued its report, and while it looks like they had more important things to do at this past meeting, Selig said a resolution could be brought to the owners soon.Of course, he still has the San Francisco Giants to contend with, and you wonder if this was one of the reasons Selig was given another two years. If the A's are going to move to San Jose, he has to get the Giants in line, and that's the kind of brokering that Selig has been good at.
One thing I didn't know was that the Giants' territorial rights can be overturned with a 75-percent vote, but that would create a bit of animosity amongst the ownership family. Of course, even if their rights are overturned, the Giants could still make things difficult by filing a lawsuit. With the Dodgers' and the Mets' situations causing problems, I think they want to avoid the courtroom on this one.
Cubs to add patio to right field bleachers
The Cubs are back to work on Wrigley Field and the latest project is a patio in the right-field bleacher section. The new Budweiser Patio will sport a 75-foot-long LED sign above the right field wall, and it can accommodate 150 fans. The Cubs are hoping to sell 50 ticket lots for the area, though at this point they haven't announced prices.Brian Borawski is a member of SABR's Business of Baseball Committee and writes about the Detroit Tigers at his own website, TigerBlog. He welcomes comments, questions and suggestions via e-mail.
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Is Jorge Posada toast as a righty hitter?
by George SzaboJanuary 18, 2012
In 2011, when Jorge Posada hit right-handed, it was worse than having a pitcher hit. As a righty, Jorge had a BA/OBP/SLG of .092/.169/.108 over 71 plate appearances; pitchers in 2011 had a line of .141/.175/.153.
Posada did not get a hit batting right-handed until June 7, starting the season 0-for-27. Thus, since last May, Yankee beat writers and other local media have been constantly citing Posada's bad righty splits. The consensus of such observers for a while has been that Posada is done as a right-handed hitter, as was expressed, for example, by Professional Baseball Player Career Adviser Bob Klapisch.
Of course, if you are reading The Hardball Times, you do not need me to prove that Posada's 2011 righty splits, amounting to about 2.5 weeks of plate appearances, alone are not enough to assert anything with great confidence. Rather, what happened is that Mr. Klapisch's article annoyed me. It was the straw that broke the camel's back in terms of incessantly coming across articles about Posada's $#@%$#@ splits.
So for some winter fun, I used the Retrosheet data to explore the implications of confidently asserting judgments based on 71 plate appearances. The first thing I wanted to do was quantify the degree of confidence one can in general place in 71 trips to the plate. One quick method is to calculate the range of OBP an average 2011 hitter could be expected to have in 71 plate appearances.
In 2011, non-pitchers averaged an OBP of .325. The R formula qbinom(c(.1,.9),71,.325)/71 indicates that with 90 percent confidence, an average hitter would have an OBP in the range of .253-.394. In other words, after 71 plate appearances, an average hitter's OBP could be anywhere between Miguel Olivo's and Ryan Braun's, and we'd really have no way of knowing the difference.
That being said, Posada's OBP was well below .253, the low end of that range. The binomial distribution probability indicates that the likelihood of an average hitter having an OBP of .169 after 71 plate appearances is approximately .0025.
At first glance, those odds—one out of 400—may make it seem that Posada's righty skills indeed have gone the way of all flesh. However, these are hardly astronomical odds in a baseball context; thousands of streaks of 71 consecutive plate appearances occur each season, and I would expect such ugly streaks occasionally happen to average-and-above players.
But does my expectation here reflect reality? To study that, I wrote a program that pulls from the Retrosheet data the stats batters compiled in streaks of 71 consecutive plate appearances; for example, a batter's first "streak" would span from his first to 71st appearances of the season, his second streak would span his second through 72nd, etc. The results will reveal whether average and above-average hitters experience such horrible streaks.
For 2011, excluding pitchers, there were 485 players who had 71 or more plate appearances; these players had a total of 140,813 streaks that consisted of 71 plate appearances. A total of 685 of those streaks resulted in an OBP less than or equal to Posada's right-handed OBP of .169.
Of course, not all the players in this latter set have at least average OBP skills, so to quickly identify whether players with at least average OBP skills had such bad streaks, I pulled the players with at least 400 plate appearances in both 2010 and 2011. This will not eliminate all players with below-average OBP skills—for example, the results will include players kept in the lineup for real/perceived defensive skills, players on lousy teams, and players with offensive skills other than OBP.
But for this purpose, it is a non-issue if some or even most of the players in the query results are crappy hitters. All we are looking for here is whether a few average-or-above players had such poor streaks. The following table lists the players, their OBPs for the last two seasons, and their lowest OBP in a set of 71 consecutive plate appearances.
Player 2011 - worst OBP, 71 PA 2011 OBP 2010 OBP Aybar, Erick .127 .317 .306 Beckham, Gordon .129 .293 .317 Betancourt, Yuniesk .141 .271 .288 Dunn, Adam .155 .292 .356 Ellis, Mark .116 .283 .358 Lind, Adam .155 .295 .287 Loney, James .157 .337 .329 McGehee, Casey .169 .280 .337 Olivo, Miguel .155 .252 .315 Raburn, Ryan .130 .294 .340 Rasmus, Colby .155 .297 .361 Rios, Alexis .169 .265 .334 Soriano, Alfonso .141 .289 .322 Suzuki, Ichiro .155 .309 .359 Theriot, Ryan .169 .317 .321 Uggla, Dan .127 .311 .369 Wells, Vernon .155 .248 .331 TOTAL na .293 .332It is fair to say, I think, that at minimum, Ichiro, Loney, and Uggla can be considered to have at least average OBP skills, despite their horrific 71-PA streaks within 2011. You could make arguments for or against others as well, based on various criteria, but again, I am merely looking for evidence that such streaks happen to a few at-least-average players.
In terms of overall offense, the following table shows some putrid 71-PA streaks in 2011 for players with arguably average-or-above skills.
Player BA OBP SLG wOBA Uggla, Dan .090 .127 .104 .111 Raburn, Ryan .104 .130 .119 .114 Aybar, Erick .101 .127 .130 .119 Loney, James .109 .157 .125 .124 Suzuki, Ichiro .118 .155 .162 .126 Smoak, Justin .079 .155 .111 .134 McGehee, Casey .123 .169 .123 .142As expected, average-or-above players do experience 71-PA streaks during which they hit worse than pitchers. But for further validation, I wanted to see whether such hideous streaks happen to proven good players. So I ran the program for all players who have accumulated 6,000 at-bats and have played at some point since Posada's career began. The following table lists selected horrific streaks of name-brand players.
Player Year BA OBP SLG wOBA Konerko, Paul 2003 .079 .169 .079 .124 Suzuki, Ichiro 2011 .119 .157 .164 .126 Beltran, Carlos 2009 .116 .141 .159 .126 Rollins, Jimmy 2005 .104 .155 .104 .129 Helton, Todd 2005 .085 .229 .102 .139 Sosa, Sammy 1991 .116 .129 .203 .141 Bonds, Barry 1988 .136 .183 .167 .144 Suzuki, Ichiro 2003 .118 .155 .162 .146 Jeter, Derek 2004 .123 .174 .185 .151 Gonzalez, Luis 1992 .092 .155 .169 .152 Delgado, Carlos 2008 .098 .211 .115 .152 Ibanez, Raul 2002 .134 .169 .194 .154 Piazza, Mike 2001 .132 .169 .191 .154 Ortiz, David 2009 .118 .155 .221 .166 Guerrero, Vladimir 2006 .155 .155 .268 .178 Guerrero, Vladimir 2005 .134 .169 .284 .184 Rodriguez, Alex 1999 .119 .169 .299 .201The data here speaks for themselves, but I do have a couple of comments.
First, to put the 1-in-400 odds that led to this exercise in context, let's look at Alex Rodriguez's 1999 streak. A-Rod's on-base percentage in 1999 was .357; the previous year's was .360 and the following year's .420. So it is reasonable to think that his actual on-base skills were something in the range of .357-.420. Using the lowest end of the range, .357, as the probability, the binomial distribution indicates the odds of A-Rod performing as poorly as he actually did were 1 in 2,500.
Second, as a Yankee fan, I wish ESPN writer Bill Simmons had been the Red Sox GM during Big Papi's 2009 slump, which included the above 71 plate appearances.
Circling back to Posada, the 1-in-400 odds clearly do not mean his 71 plate appearances are predictive; his hideous 71 righty plate appearances certainly could be due to a collapse in skills but also to random fluctuation or bad luck.
Let's look at luck. Posada's BABIP batting right-handed was .146, suggesting bad luck may have been a factor. For fun, let's play the role of the Baseball Gods and give Posada six more hits to get him to a typical BABIP of around .300; with that, his OBP would be .254.
Coincidence or not, .254 happens to be the bottom of the expected range that pbinom() calculates as the expected OBP of an average player. Does this prove that luck was behind Jorge's abominable righty hitting? Of course not; the .146 BABIP could reflect a washed-up hitter capable of only weak contact; it merely suggests the possibility of horrendous luck.
Since Posada's righty 2011 stats alone are not useful to gauge his skills, what I next checked were splits from the last few years. Was Posada showing signs of a righty-hitting collapse before 2011? The following table lists Posada's righty splits over the last few years, along with his career righty splits.
Year Hand PAs BA BABIP OBP SLG wOBA 2009 R 139 .290 .397 .360 .476 .366 2010 R 153 .257 .300 .340 .493 .360 2011 R 71 .092 .146 .169 .108 .132 Career R 2052 .288 .341 .371 .482 .375In 2009-2010, Posada's right-handed hitting, as measured by wOBA, was slightly below his career average but still very good. However, the bulk of his career was in a higher-scoring era than 2010. In terms of park factor, the new Yankee Stadium has been more of a hitter's park than the old stadium—however, Yankee Stadiums old and new favor lefty hitters, so it also would be useful to look at adjusted stats with and without park factors.
The following table shows both actual and adjusted wOBA for Posada's right-handed hitting, adjusted against the AL 2011 environment of 4.46 runs-per-game.
Adjusted wOBA Year R/G Park Factor PAs wOBA (Park Factor) (No Park Factor) 1996 5.39 1.01 5 .180 .165 .165 1997 4.93 1.00 43 .350 .337 .337 1998 5.01 0.97 122 .421 .408 .403 1999 5.18 0.98 106 .367 .349 .346 2000 5.30 0.99 186 .404 .381 .380 2001 4.86 1.02 175 .375 .362 .365 2002 4.81 1.00 157 .419 .408 .408 2003 4.86 0.98 144 .436 .428 .425 2004 5.01 0.98 169 .385 .371 .368 2005 4.76 0.98 195 .372 .367 .364 2006 4.97 1.01 158 .356 .343 .344 2007 4.90 1.01 168 .396 .382 .383 2008 4.78 1.03 61 .308 .297 .300 2009 4.82 1.05 139 .366 .350 .356 2010 4.45 1.05 153 .360 .354 .361 2011 4.46 1.08 71 .132 .127 .132 Total NA NA 2052 .375 .372 .372This perspective suggests Posada's 2011 righty performance was not part of a trend but rather either an outlier or a falling off of the cliff.
In terms of looking for decline patterns, it's worth also checking his lefty-hitting over the years.
Adjusted wOBA Year R/G Park Factor PAs wOBA (Park Factor) (No Park Factor) 1996 5.39 1.01 10 .072 .072 .072 1997 4.93 1.00 181 .342 .330 .330 1998 5.01 0.97 287 .318 .308 .304 1999 5.18 0.98 331 .317 .302 .300 2000 5.30 0.99 438 .404 .381 .380 2001 4.86 1.02 382 .355 .341 .344 2002 4.81 1.00 441 .343 .334 .334 2003 4.86 0.98 444 .394 .385 .382 2004 5.01 0.98 378 .395 .382 .380 2005 4.76 0.98 351 .341 .335 .332 2006 4.97 1.01 386 .398 .381 .382 2007 4.90 1.01 421 .427 .412 .413 2008 4.78 1.03 134 .347 .335 .338 2009 4.82 1.05 299 .387 .369 .376 2010 4.45 1.05 298 .353 .347 .353 2011 4.46 1.08 316 .362 .352 .362 Total NA NA 5097 .369 .363 .364Posada's .352 lefty wOBA in 2011 would have been a positive at any position, the point being that there is nothing to suggest a general physical breakdown in 2011. Of course, it is possible that some physical issue impacted some part of Posada's body that only affects his righty hitting.
Finally, apart from statistics, one might argue that the Yankees only giving Posada 71 plate appearances as a righty, while giving him a representative number of lefty plate appearances, suggests manager Joe Girardi considered him washed up as a righty. But as someone who pays too much attention to the Yankees, I suggest that this playing pattern more likely reflects an accident of roster construction and injuries.
What I mean is that Posada lost his job as righty DH in mid-May after 30 righty plate appearances with zero hits and six walks. But he was slumping from both sides of the plate at the time, and I suspect that if Eric Chavez was not injured at the time, Posada would have been benched from both sides of the plate. After all, that is what Girardi did in August; he benched Posada for awhile when he again fell into a slump and used Chavez as the lefty DH (or sometimes Chavez at third base and A-Rod at DH).
Posada later played himself back into the lineup as the lefty DH for the stretch run and playoffs, showing that Girardi was inclined to periodically change lineups in order to play the hot, and sit the cool, hand. Andruw Jones, and later Jesus Montero, hit so well as righty DH options that Girardi never had a reason to give Posada another shot in that role.
Given Posada's rumored retirement, we may never get a chance to see whether his 2011 righty splits were predictive or mere noise. However, a careful reading of the details suggests the rumors are conditional—according to the New York Times, Posada "told teammates that he plans to retire rather than attempt to play for another team at 40." The trading of Montero may open a door for Posada, because the trade opens up the DH slot.
It seems likely the Yankees would prefer someone willing to be a part-time DH so they can give a fair amount of DH time to A-Rod and other starters for the purposes of occasional rest. Will some of the rumored candidates such as Carlos Pena be willing to play such a limited role? It's conceivable that Posada may emerge as the best available candidate for that type of role.
In weighing the Posada option, I would expect Brian Cashman to evaluate factors such as Posada's age and the degree to which Posada's ability to play a decent first base and be an emergency catcher provides Girardi with roster flexibility when compared with other options. If this is more than mere idle speculation on my part, I would also expect Cashman and Girardi to view Posada's switch-hitting as a potential benefit, not to assume that 71 horrible plate appearances mean he is done as a righty.
George serves Mammon as a software developer, lives in Sandy Hook CT, and is starting up the Gutty Gritty Yankees blog at http://www.guttygrittyyankees.com.
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Can you really play it safe?
by Derek AmbrosinoJanuary 18, 2012
Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com.
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A baseball card mystery: Thurman Munson and who?
by Bruce MarkusenJanuary 18, 2012
Bruce Markusen is the author of seven books on baseball, including the award-winning A Baseball Dynasty: Charlie Finley’s Swingin’ A’s, the recipient of the Seymour Medal from the Society for American Baseball Research. He has also written The Team That Changed Baseball: Roberto Clemente and the 1971 Pittsburgh Pirates, Tales From The Mets Dugout, and The Orlando Cepeda Story.
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10th anniversary: Randy Winn’s greatest shot
by Chris JaffeJanuary 18, 2012
History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail.
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10,000 days since Buddy Bell walk-off slam
by Chris JaffeJanuary 17, 2012
History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail.
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The virtual 1958-68 Giants, Reds, and Cardinals (Part 7: 1963-64)
by Steve TrederJanuary 17, 2012
Our extended counterfactual journey has now completed six seasons:
1957-58
1958-59
1959-60
1960-61
1961-62
1962-63
One of our Giants or Reds teams has achieved a first-place finish in every virtual seasons since 1959, when they tied for first. Meanwhile, the real each franchises snagged just one pennant each in that period. Our Cardinals, who actually broke through as a contender in 1963, remain mired in the middle of our version of the National League.
Giants: Actual Reds: Actual Cardinals: Actual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1958 80 74 3 727 698 76 78 4 695 623 72 82 5T 619 704
1959 83 71 3 705 613 74 80 5T 764 738 71 83 7 641 725
1960 79 75 5 671 631 67 87 6 640 692 86 68 3 639 616
1961 85 69 3 773 655 93 61 1 710 653 80 74 5 703 668
1962 103 62 1 878 690 98 64 3 802 685 84 78 6 774 664
1963 88 74 3 725 641 86 76 5 648 594 93 69 2 747 628
Giants: Virtual Reds: Virtual Cardinals: Virtual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1958 83 71 2T 747 692 73 81 5 683 637 77 77 4 640 677
1959 87 67 1T 737 615 87 67 1T 802 662 84 70 4 725 685
1960 93 61 1 709 561 76 78 6 705 666 86 68 4 661 632
1961 88 66 2 787 648 106 48 1 813 629 72 82 6 689 724
1962 103 59 1 800 632 101 61 2T 779 663 84 78 6 809 703
1963 97 65 3 726 578 100 62 1 704 540 80 82 6 664 668The 1963-64 offseason: Actual deals we will make
April 9, 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals traded outfielder-infielder Gary Kolb and catcher Jimmie Coker to the Milwaukee Braves for catcher Bob Uecker.
In an unusually light trading season, we see just one and only. And it barely makes it, coming on the eve of Opening Day. It’s no earth-shaker, as our Cards and their real-life counterparts, swap a pair of bench parts for a good-defense-little-offense backup catcher (albeit one with a notably wry sense of humor).
The 1963-64 offseason: Actual deals we will not make
Nov. 4, 1963: The St. Louis Cardinals traded outfielder George Altman and pitcher Bill Wakefield to the New York Mets for pitcher Roger Craig.
We never acquired Big George, and so won’t be acquiring Mr. Humm Baby.
Dec. 3, 1963: The San Francisco Giants traded outfielder Felipe Alou, catcher Ed Bailey, pitcher Billy Hoeft, and a player to be named later to the Milwaukee Braves for pitchers Bob Hendley and Bob Shaw and catcher Del Crandall. (On Jan. 8, 1964, the Giants sent infielder Ernie Bowman to the Braves, completing the deal.)
Since our Giants no longer have the eldest Alou brother, they won’t be able to partake in this big shakeup. Our Cardinals do have Felipe, but don’t wish to part with him.
Dec. 14, 1963: The Cincinnati Reds purchased third baseman Steve Boros from the Chicago Cubs.
Nor do our Reds have any interest in this journeyman.
Feb. 17, 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals traded outfielder Jim Beauchamp and pitcher Chuck Taylor to the Houston Colt .45s for outfielder Carl Warwick.
Beauchamp has jumped way up on our prospect list by hitting .337 with 31 homers in the Texas League in 1963. Our Cardinals would rather give him a chance to make the major league team in ’64 than exchange him for the journeyman Warwick.
The 1963-64 offseason: Deals we will invoke
Sep. 30, 1963: The San Francisco Giants purchased pitcher Don McMahon from the Houston Colt .45s.
On this date in real-life, Houston sold McMahon to Cleveland, but our Giants think he can bolster the bullpen at low cost, and won’t let him clear waivers.
Oct. 1, 1963: The Cincinnati Reds traded catcher Jimmie Coker to the St. Louis Cardinals for pitcher Dom Zanni.
Our Cincinnati organization stashed Coker in triple-A in ’63, but our St. Louisans think they might have a use for him. (He will be included in the Uecker trade in the spring.)
Oct. 10, 1963: In a special National League draft, the San Francisco Giants surrendered pitcher Mike McCormick to the New York Mets.
The NL decided (quite sensibly, it's always seemed) to conduct a small supplementary expansion draft to help out the still-struggling Mets and Colt .45s. Each of the eight pre-expansion franchises made a list of non-marginal players available, and New York and Houston got one pick apiece. The player the Mets actually chose was pitcher Jack Fisher from the Giants, but since we didn’t trade McCormick for Fisher a year ago, it seems reasonable that in our scenario it’s McCormick they’ll take.
Nov. 30, 1963: The San Francisco Giants signed catcher Hal Smith as a free agent.
The Colt .45s have released this veteran, and our Giants will give him a shot at third-string catcher.
(And here we go again with the coincidental names … there have been three Hal Smiths to play in the major leagues, and two of them were right-handed-batting catchers playing at almost exactly the same time, this one from 1955-64 and the other one from 1956-65.)
Jan. 20, 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals traded infielder Eddie Kasko to the Houston Colt .45s for pitchers Jim Dickson and Wally Wolf and cash.
Actually, Houston made this trade with Cincinnati, but since it’s our Cardinals who still have Kasko, they’ll do it instead. Dickson and Wolf are second-tier prospects, but in St. Louis we have younger talent we believe ready to take over the utility infielder gig from Kasko.
March 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals traded pitcher Dick LeMay to the San Francisco Giants for pitcher Paul Doyle.
The southpaw LeMay has never been able to break through since our Cardinals acquired him back in 1960, and now St. Louis is ready to give someone else a shot. Doyle is also a left-hander, a year younger than LeMay and more raw, but harder throwing. Our Giants, in need of a lefty spot starter to replace McCormick, will give LeMay another chance, and the St. Louis organization will give Doyle the opportunity to further develop in the minors.
The 1964 season: Actual deals we will make
June 26, 1964: The Cincinnati Reds sold pitcher Al Worthington to the Minnesota Twins.
Worthington did well for our Reds in 1963, but has gotten squeezed back to triple-A this year, so we’ll let the Twins have him. (Oops. The 35-year-old Worthington, better late than never, will blossom into a splendid relief ace in Minnesota.)
The 1964 season: Actual deals we will not make
April 14, 1964: The San Francisco Giants purchased outfielder Duke Snider from the New York Mets.
May 13, 1964: The Cincinnati Reds purchased pitcher Ryne Duren from the Philadelphia Phillies.
As much fun as both of these additions would be, neither of our rosters have room.
June 15, 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals traded pitchers Ernie Broglio and Bobby Shantz and outfielder Doug Clemens to the Chicago Cubs for outfielder Lou Brock and pitchers Paul Toth and Jack Spring.
And then, of course, there was this little piece of business.
Alas, our Cards don’t have Broglio. And though our Giants do, as tempting as the toolsy-but-still-spinning-his-remarkable-wheels Brock is, there’s no room for him in the San Francisco outfield.
But, you know, there is room in the St. Louis outfield. So …
The 1964 season: Deals we will invoke
June 15, 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals traded pitcher Ray Sadecki to the Chicago Cubs for outfielder Lou Brock.
Sadecki doesn’t have anything near Broglio’s track record of success, but he’s still just 23 (five years younger than Broglio—heck, he’s two years younger than Brock), and looks as though he might be on the verge of busting out. So far in 1964, Sadecki's displaying better control than ever before, and has six wins and four complete games.
Of course, he might not bust out, just as Brock might never fulfill his abundant potential. There’s risk on both sides of this one, as there is any time when talented young underperformers of this type are exchanged. But the Cubs need pitching help, and have other options in the outfield, and our Cards need outfield help and have other options on the mound. Both teams will roll the dice.
1964 season results
Giants
Our roster changes are minimal. McMahon joins the bullpen and LeMay gets an opportunity to join the back end of the rotation. The most significant alteration is in right field, where we’ll give Jim Ray Hart the regular job (assuming he can avoid beanballs) and move Walt Bond to a utility role.
1964 San Francisco Giants Won 100 Lost 62 Finished 2nd
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B W. McCovey* 26 130 364 61 80 14 1 18 54 61 73 .220 .336 .412 .748 108
2B-SS H. Lanier 21 98 306 29 84 13 2 2 24 4 35 .275 .274 .350 .624 73
SS A. Rodgers 29 129 448 53 106 17 3 12 44 52 85 .237 .312 .368 .680 90
3B K. Boyer 33 162 649 103 187 30 8 24 66 71 85 .288 .358 .470 .828 130
RF J. Hart 22 153 566 73 162 15 6 31 83 47 94 .286 .341 .498 .839 132
CF W. Mays 33 157 578 123 171 21 9 47 114 82 72 .296 .382 .607 .989 172
LF-1B O. Cepeda 26 142 529 77 161 27 2 31 100 43 83 .304 .361 .539 .900 148
C T. Haller* 27 105 332 40 84 12 3 14 41 47 44 .253 .346 .434 .780 117
OF-1B W. Bond* 26 99 272 29 70 8 3 12 39 18 46 .257 .309 .441 .750 107
C J. Orsino 26 81 248 21 57 10 0 7 23 20 51 .230 .288 .355 .643 79
IF J. Pagan 29 101 221 19 50 6 1 1 17 21 40 .226 .288 .276 .564 59
OF J. Alou 22 77 188 21 50 5 0 2 14 6 18 .266 .291 .324 .616 72
2B C. Hiller* 29 72 164 17 30 6 1 1 14 14 18 .183 .245 .250 .495 39
OF M. Alou* 25 73 100 14 25 2 1 0 6 3 11 .250 .276 .290 .566 59
SS G. Garrido 23 38 70 6 11 1 0 0 3 4 11 .157 .197 .171 .369 4
C H. Smith 33 21 44 4 5 1 0 0 2 8 13 .114 .245 .136 .382 10
C T. Talton* 25 16 37 2 9 1 0 0 3 2 5 .243 .282 .270 .552 56
1B N. Larker* 33 14 24 2 6 1 0 0 1 3 2 .250 .333 .292 .625 77
Others 29 6 4 1 0 0 3 3 8 .138 .219 .172 .391 11
Pitchers 404 23 52 7 0 0 22 23 150 .129 .167 .146 .313 -11
Total 5573 726 1404 198 40 202 673 532 944 .252 .316 .411 .726 102
* Bats left
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
J. Marichal 26 33 33 22 23 6 0 269 241 89 74 18 52 206 2.48 144
G. Perry 25 44 19 5 14 9 4 206 179 65 63 16 43 155 2.75 129
E. Broglio 28 29 27 6 9 10 1 170 172 78 68 18 57 84 3.60 99
B. Bolin 25 30 23 4 7 6 0 157 130 65 58 15 69 130 3.32 107
D. LeMay* 25 29 23 5 11 8 0 151 140 60 54 14 48 86 3.22 111
J. Sanford 35 18 17 3 7 5 0 106 91 44 39 7 37 64 3.31 108
D. Estelle* 22 13 10 1 3 3 0 72 67 30 27 4 39 51 3.38 105
S. Miller 36 66 0 0 8 6 20 97 81 38 34 6 30 80 3.15 113
D. McMahon 34 56 0 0 6 2 5 81 56 26 21 7 34 66 2.33 153
B. O'Dell* 31 36 8 1 8 6 1 85 82 55 51 10 35 54 5.40 66
B. Pierce* 37 34 1 0 3 0 2 49 40 14 12 6 10 29 2.20 162
Others 1 0 1 1 1 34 29 12 12 4 6 26 3.18 112
Total 162 47 100 62 34 1477 1308 576 513 125 460 1031 3.13 114
* Throws leftThe good news for the offense is that Hart is healthy and terrific, an immediate star. The bad news is that our second base platoon partners Chuck Hiller and Jose Pagan, who’d hit pretty well back in 1962, and less well in ’63, hit terribly this time around. In frustration, we promote smooth-fielding, slap-hitting Hal Lanier from the minors in mid-season, and while he doesn’t hit well (that .274 OBP alongside a .275 batting average is a neat trick), he hits better than Pagan and (especially) Hiller.
The worst news is that our young star first baseman Willie McCovey is gripped by a season-long slump. The supposed explanation is chronically sore feet brought on by a pair of ill-fitting shoes. All we can say is, that must have been one truly nasty pair of shoes.
We’re still getting tremendous performances from Willie Mays, Orlando Cepeda and Ken Boyer. Though we don’t present quite the run production capability of the past few years, we remain remarkably power-laden, exceeding 200 team home runs for a staggering fourth year in a row.
We have a few pitching issues. Jack Sanford misses almost half of the season with a shoulder injury, and Ernie Broglio and Billy O'Dell both endure off-years. But positives abound, including stepping-forward years from 25-year-old right-handers Gaylord Perry and Bob Bolin. McMahon more than repays our confidence, and LeMay is a delightful surprise. With Juan Marichal once again leading the way, our staff is outstanding, our best since 1960.
We win 100 ball games.
And finish in second place.
Reds
Cincinnati’s modifications are even more marginal than San Francisco’s. The only new names are a hard-throwing 22-year-old rookie right-hander, Sammy Ellis, to whom we’ll grant a bullpen slot, and second-chance corner infielder Deron Johnson fresh off a 33-homer season in triple-A.
1964 Cincinnati Reds Won 101 Lost 61 Finished 1st
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B-3B D. Johnson 25 126 382 50 104 19 3 17 62 30 78 .272 .327 .471 .798 120
2B P. Rose# 23 129 464 53 125 12 2 4 30 32 46 .269 .317 .330 .646 81
SS L. Cardenas 25 155 537 56 137 29 2 8 60 38 98 .255 .302 .361 .663 84
3B T. Harper 23 134 429 60 106 10 3 7 32 52 75 .247 .325 .333 .658 84
RF F. Robinson 28 156 568 104 174 38 6 29 95 79 67 .306 .396 .548 .943 160
CF-LF V. Pinson* 25 148 584 95 158 21 11 22 80 39 90 .271 .320 .457 .777 114
LF T. Gonzalez* 27 124 379 47 108 23 3 5 36 40 64 .285 .357 .401 .758 111
C J. Edwards* 26 110 317 35 90 17 1 6 41 26 48 .284 .333 .401 .734 104
O-2-3 C. Flood 26 118 340 48 103 12 1 3 22 22 25 .303 .345 .371 .716 100
C-1B E. Bailey* 33 82 217 23 56 8 1 5 25 27 30 .258 .340 .373 .713 99
1B-OF M. Keough* 30 98 221 23 56 7 1 7 22 17 47 .253 .310 .389 .699 94
LF J. Lynch* 33 95 198 23 53 9 1 11 39 18 37 .268 .327 .490 .817 124
C J. Azcue 24 69 181 13 49 6 1 3 23 9 23 .271 .303 .365 .667 85
1B W. Moon* 34 79 157 12 37 3 1 3 12 16 29 .236 .301 .325 .626 75
IF C. Ruiz# 25 51 104 11 24 4 1 1 5 1 15 .231 .234 .317 .552 52
IF B. Klaus 26 20 47 5 9 2 1 1 3 2 7 .191 .216 .340 .556 52
Others 79 8 14 2 0 2 7 7 20 .177 .244 .278 .523 45
Pitchers 427 23 53 6 1 5 38 17 163 .125 .154 .177 .331 -8
Total 5631 689 1456 228 40 139 632 472 962 .259 .315 .387 .702 95
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
J. Pizarro* 27 33 33 11 19 8 0 239 203 84 74 22 49 158 2.79 130
J. O'Toole* 27 30 30 9 17 7 0 220 194 71 65 8 51 145 2.66 136
J. Maloney 24 31 31 11 15 10 0 216 175 72 65 16 83 214 2.71 134
C. Osteen* 24 37 24 8 12 7 0 171 164 68 60 11 38 90 3.16 115
B. Purkey 34 34 20 7 9 7 1 157 141 59 50 12 39 64 2.87 126
J. Jay 28 34 18 8 9 9 2 146 131 58 53 13 29 110 3.27 111
S. Ellis 23 52 4 1 9 2