The Verdict: the risks of NL and AL-only leaguesby Michael Stein
July 30, 2013
With the major league trade deadline almost upon us, some trades already have had a major impact in fantasy baseball leagues. Two of the biggest involved the Chicago Cubs, who first dealt Matt Garza to the Texas Rangers, and then Alfonso Soriano to the New York Yankees.
Your first impression may be that both Garza and Soriano will see an increase in production by being on better teams that are in pennant races. That is accurate. But if you play in a NL-only or AL-only fantasy baseball league, is that the first thing that crosses your mind?
For fantasy owners in NL-only leagues who had Garza or Soriano on your rosters, you now have an empty roster spot with nothing to show for it. Players who are traded to the other league are rendered useless in most AL or NL-only formats. That can hurt your chances at a championship if you are not prepared. That is not to say that Garza or Soriano would lead you to victory on their own. But they are solid complementary players; you would expect compensation if they were taken off your team.
In AL-only leagues, fantasy owners now have two tremendous free agents available on the waiver wire. That is why it is important to keep enough free agent auction dollars in your pocket or do your best to manage your waiver priority position around this time of year to be able to acquire free agents who change leagues.
The lesson from all of this, especially in AL or NL-only leagues, is to pay close attention to the rumor mill. Certain players every year are the subject of trade rumors all winter and all spring. Those players can become big risks to hold onto deep into July, so you need to carefully evaluate whether it is in your best interests to take the chance that they will survive the trade deadline. Part of that evaluation must include accepting some sort of discount for these players. Remember, if they are risky for you, they are just as risky for someone else. That isn't to say you shouldn't try to get as much as you can for a player under these circumstances. But you need to be realistic in assessing a player's value when he is likely to get traded and there is a possibility of that player changing leagues.
There are some players who you just know going into the season are going to be the center of trade rumors. Garza was heavily rumored to be traded last year and it never happened, so we all knew it was just a matter of time before it did happen this year. Other players more surprisingly find themselves amid trade rumors if their team falls out of contention or contract extension talks break down. You as a fantasy baseball player need to be keenly aware of everything going on so you can be as prepared as possible to manage your roster if you own any of these players.
Of course, this is all depends on how your AL or NL-only league rules are set up. Some leagues could allow a player to continue to accrue points while he is playing for a team outside the confines of your league-specific universe. If that is the case, then this is all a moot point.
But in most such leagues, a player traded to the other league will no longer accrue points and is rendered useless. Make sure you know your league's rules and take appropriate action when it comes to handling players who are rumored to be traded. While rumors are not fact at the moment, we have so much inside information within the baseball and fantasy baseball community that it elevates your mere conjecture into an educated preemptive strike.
The Court wants to hear your comments on whether you concur or dissent with the verdict by sending an email to michael.stein @ fantasyjudgment.com, or find us on Facebook and Twitter @FantasyJudgment.
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