THT Dartboard: September 9, 2007
by Matthew CarruthSeptember 09, 2007
Dartboard
Divisional Picture
Dartboard
Welcome to The Hardball Times Dartboard, our weekly attempt to rank all the teams in baseball. The Dartboard Factor is how many wins a team would be expected to have at the end of the season if it played a neutral schedule. Next to that, you'll find the Dartboard Factor from the previous week. An explanation of our method can be found here.
#1 Boston Red Sox (Dartboard Factor = 99, 98): Is Daisuke Matsuzaka tiring down the stretch in his first season as part of a five-man rotation? Or is this just what he's going to be talent-wise?
#2 Los Angeles Angels (Dartboard Factor = 96, 96): Is there a more underrated pair of starting pitchers than Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey?
#3 Cleveland Indians (Dartboard Factor = 93, 93): C.C. Sabathia is another guy who gets nowhere near the recognition that his performance warrants.
#4 New York Yankees (Dartboard Factor = 92, 92): Alex Rodriguez eclipses 50 homeruns and now the Bronx faithful start to embrace him finally as a Yankee. Just in time for A-Rod to opt out of his contract and go somewhere else. For pure entertainment, can this please happen?
#5 New York Mets (Dartboard Factor = 91, 89): An 8-2 stretch all but clinches the division for the Mets and launched them back into the top spot in the National League.
#6 Arizona Diamondbacks (Dartboard Factor = 89, 87): The Diamondbacks might be walking a little bit on eggshells after seeing the freefall of Seattle, their AL kin when it comes to outperforming Pythagoras. So far though, the Diamondbacks are holding on and they have the benefit of an easier schedule and an easier league.
#7 San Diego Padres (Dartboard Factor = 89, 90): The Padres need to get Chris Young healthy, not just to hold onto their playoff spot, but to hope to advance past the first round this time.
#8 Detroit Tigers (Dartboard Factor = 88, 87): The Tigers are going to need to work hard to catch up to the Yankees. Jeremy Bonderman continues to struggle mightily and if he doesn't turn it around, it's hard to see the Tigers triumphing in the wildcard.
#9 Los Angeles Dodgers (Dartboard Factor = 86, 85): To reach the playoffs they're going to have to overcome the Padres and Phillies and hold off the Rockies and Braves behind them. It doesn't look good.
#10 Seattle Mariners (Dartboard Factor = 85, 88): Technically still in the playoff race for the wildcard, the Mariners are finished and the Seattle-faithful can only hope that a collapse this hard might teach the front office a lesson about roster construction. Yeah, right.
#11 Philadelphia Phillies (Dartboard Factor = 84, 86): Because of the weaker division, the Phillies have a better shot than some of their western competition and hanging around in the wildcard race.
#12 Toronto Blue Jays (Dartboard Factor = 84, 84): The Blue Jays get a chance to play spoiler against the Yankees. The Tigers will be rooting them on.
#13 Atlanta Braves (Dartboard Factor = 84, 83): Still with an outside shot at the wildcard spot, but they'll need to start playing better within the division to climb over the teams ahead.
#14 Colorado Rockies (Dartboard Factor = 84, 83): With a great crop of young players and still more waiting in the wings, the Rockies could be on the verge of a dynastic run in the NL West over the remainder of the decade.
#15 Chicago Cubs (Dartboard Factor = 81, 82): The Cubs and the Brewers or whomever emerges from the NL Central, is going to be the worst ranked team from this list to make the playoffs. The other seven playoff teams currently occupy the top seven sports on the dartboard.
#16 Milwaukee Brewers (Dartboard Factor = 81, 80): If the Brewers manage to worm their way into the playoffs, do not be surprised to see Prince Fielder take home the NL MVP and Ryan Braun the NL ROY.
#17 Oakland Athletics (Dartboard Factor = 79, 81): What do the Athletics chances in 2008 look like? With one of the most barren farm systems in baseball and many of their young hopefuls flat lining, can the As compete with the Angels and Mariners over the next few years?
#18 Minnesota Twins (Dartboard Factor = 79, 82): The Twins will return a dynamite pitching staff next season, getting back Francisco Liriano to pair up with Johan Santana, but will Terry Ryan do anything about the offense?
#19 St Louis Cardinals (Dartboard Factor = 78, 79): Anyone else notice how many players connected to steroids have connections to Tony La Russa? Probably just a coincidence.
#20 Texas Rangers (Dartboard Factor = 78, 76): The Rangers have quietly recovered from the early season nose dive to bring themselves back into respectability in the AL. Not sure what that means except for a worse draft pick next year, but I'm sure the players are pleased.
#21 San Francisco Giants (Dartboard Factor = 74, 75): The Giants are tied for the highest groundball percentage among NL hitting teams. When you have a team as old as San Francisco does, hitting lots and lots of ground balls isn't conducive to high batting averages. Age usually equals slow.
#22 Cincinnati Reds (Dartboard Factor = 73, 73): Though it's not rare for a team to hit worse with runners in scoring position than overall, it is uncommon. The Reds, hitting 9 points worse, are near the bottom of the league in that regards.
#23 Baltimore Orioles (Dartboard Factor = 72, 74): Erik Bedard will sit out the rest of the season, thus eliminating any baseball-related reason for watching the Orioles for the remainder of 2007.
#24 Kansas City Royals (Dartboard Factor = 71, 72): So Alex Gordon isn't lighting up the ROY ballots, but Billy Butler is having a fine rookie campaign.
#25 Washington Nationals (Dartboard Factor = 71, 69): The Nationals own the NL's worst run differential, patience will be a needed virtue for DC-area fans.
#26 Chicago White Sox (Dartboard Factor = 70, 69): Did you know the White Sox have the worst run differential in baseball? It's funny how geeks with computers but without playing experience managed to predict the collapse. Science, it works.
#27 Houston Astros (Dartboard Factor = 69, 71): You want evidence about how big a role defense plays in preventing runs? The spread between the most runs allowed per game (the Rays at 5.89) and the best (Red Sox at 4.03) is 65% more than the spread between the highest team FIP (Nats at 4.82) and the lowest (Padres at 3.69). Hey Astros, get a better defensive infield. And some sluggers.
#28 Florida Marlins (Dartboard Factor = 69, 70): It's pretty well known that the Rays have the worst defense in baseball, but did you know that the Marlins have the NL's worst defense at 89 plays below average?
#29 Pittsburgh Pirates (Dartboard Factor = 69, 69): Finally Dave Littlefield gets canned. Now the Pirates have a chance to shed the "worst run organization" label that they've rightfully deserved for the past five or so years.
#30 Tampa Bay Devil Rays (Dartboard Factor = 68, 67): Combining with Marlins, the AL worst defense from Tampa Bay, the two Florida teams are 217 plays under average on defense. That's... there are no words for how bad that is. Maybe it's the weather?
Divisional Picture
The playoff picture takes the above ranking and reforms the teams back into their leagues and divisions including the wild card. This is in no ways a prediction, this is an assessment of how teams have played so far this season, not how each team is going to play.
AL EAST
Red Sox - 99
Yankees - 92
Blue Jays - 84
Orioles - 72
Devil Rays - 68
AL CENTRAL
Indians - 93
Tigers - 88
Twins - 79
Royals - 71
White Sox - 70
AL WEST
Angels - 96
Mariners - 85
Athletics - 79
Rangers - 78
AL WILD CARD
Yankees - 92
Tigers - 88
NL EAST
Mets - 91
Phillies - 84
Braves - 84
Nationals - 71
Marlins - 69
NL CENTRAL
Cubs - 81
Brewers - 81
Cardinals - 78
Reds - 73
Astros - 69
Pirates - 69
NL WEST
Diamondbacks - 89
Padres - 89
Dodgers - 86
Rockies - 84
Giants - 74
NL WILD CARD
Padres - 89
Dodgers - 86
Phillies - 84
Braves - 84
Rockies - 84
Matthew Carruth is an editor for The Hardball Times. He welcomes any and all sorts of communication at his email.
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