The Hardball Times and THT Fantasy http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-06-18T08:13:15+00:00 The Verdict: absolute power corrupts absolutely http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-verdict-absolute-power-corrupts-absolutely/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-verdict-absolute-power-corrupts-absolutely/#When:08:47:15
But along with the power and authority of being commissioner comes the risk of that person potentially abusing such power and authority. As commissioner, you have access to various league tools that no one else does. You have the ability to circumvent certain restrictions that other league members do not have. Unfortunately, some commissioners unfairly take advantage of this authority.

Recently, the Court was presented with a case involving such nefarious actions by a league commissioner. This 12-team mixed roto league used an auction bidding process to determine free agent and waiver wire claims. The league’s auction was set to run every Monday and Thursday at 2:59 a.m. Only the commissioner had the ability to enter transactions or change the waiver results after the bidding process was completed.

On June 3, league members were able to view the list of all of the transactions made during the previous night’s auction. Team Bundy, one of the teams in the league, noticed that there was a transaction made at 10:04 a.m. that day: The commissioner’s team added Ike Davis and dropped Dustin Ackley. Team Bundy brought this to the league’s attention on the message board and criticized the commissioner for abusing his power by entering transactions after the auction was completed. The commissioner responded by saying that his actions had no detrimental effect on the league since no other team claimed Davis and he simply forgot to put a bid in for him the previous night.

Team Bundy submitted this case seeking revocation of the commissioner’s transaction and a reprimand.

The Court took this issue seriously because any alleged abuse of discretion by a commissioner jeopardizes the integrity of the entire league. Not only must commissioners enforce the league's rules, but they must abide by them as well. Here, the commissioner was also a member of the league so he is subject to the same rules and procedures as everyone else.

Whether there are written rules or not, there is a generally accepted code of conduct within fantasy sports premised on good faith and fair dealings within leagues and among league members. That code of conduct includes commissioners as well. In most instances, the Court will uphold a commissioner’s decision or actions so long as it is in the best interests of the league and absent any self-serving motivation. Unfortunately, this case was wrought with self-serving motivation and went against the best interests of the league.

Generally, rules and guidelines should be enforced consistently unless there is valid justification to create an exception. Any exception made to an existing rule should be corroborated by a thorough explanation by the commissioner. This is especially true if the exception being made is for the benefit of the commissioner himself.

In this case, the commissioner was either oblivious or deliberately indifferent to the possible reaction by his fellow league members toward his actions. This is disturbing because commissioners are understandably under more scrutiny than the other members of the league simply because of the power and authority that they possess. As such, commissioners should be cognizant of how their actions will be perceived by others. Because the league commissioner dismissed Team Bundy’s dissent and did not consider any ramifications for his own actions, the Court easily concluded that he did not consider what was best for the league overall. Rather, he put his own interests ahead of the rest of the league.

When a commissioner takes advantage of his authority by accessing certain tools that no one else has, he creates an environment within the league that is ripe with bitterness, resentment, mistrust, and anger. The free agent auction bidding process is automated by the league’s host provider. It is set to run on the days that are scheduled—in this case on Monday and Thursday. Once the transactions are awarded, a log is generated showing each team’s moves. Lineup and roster transactions are also kept and time-stamped, available for anyone to access. The commissioner should have known that his actions would be discoverable after he added Ike Davis seven hours after the auction ran.

The Court had precedent to enforce the strict applicability of the FAAB settings. In Green Eggs & Hamels vs. Megan Fox is Hot, the Court upheld the league commissioner’s denial of an appeal by a league member who claimed that he should have been awarded a free agent because he placed a bid prior to another team that was ranked higher on the waiver priority order. The Court held that the rules and settings for the FAAB process were clearly explained and implemented. That is exactly what we have in the present case. The only difference in this case is that it was the commissioner circumventing the rules.

The Verdict: The commissioner's post-auction transaction should be nullified and Ike Davis should return to the free agent pool. In addition, the commissioner should apologize to his fellow league members and ensure that this never happens again. (It should be noted that I suggested to the appellant that if he and his fellow owners want to remain in this league, a new commissioner be put in place next season and the current commissioner be removed from the league).


Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> Michael Stein 2013-06-18T08:47:28+00:00 All-time two-first-names team http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/all-time-two-first-names-team/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/all-time-two-first-names-team/#When:07:13:15
Sounds easy, right? Well, there are two issues to consider. One is how to identify the best players. If forced to choose, do you want a slugger or a defensive stud? A long-term solid starter or pitcher who was an ace for only a brief period? Fortunately, there are enough players to select from that this predicament is minor.

Where things get more confusing is figuring out what last names are considered first names. William is a first name, but Williams isn't, so Teddy Ballgame won't make the cut. Women's names count. Yes, major league ballplayers (to this point) have all been male, but a first name is a first name, regardless of gender, and this allowance helps populate the team with some of the game's very best players.

In a similar vein, some names now are considered first names that weren't in the past, and there's one name in particular that deserves special mention. It's usage as a first name opens up the range of player candidates nicely. We'll see what that name is shortly. But for now, let's dig in.

Catcher


When trying to determine a position's best player, this may be the easiest call. I've never heard of any couples naming their kid Bench, Fisk, Berra or Piazza, so Gary Carter earns the honor. An 11-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove winner, Carter was a terrific player who handled pitchers for the Expos and Mets over the bulk of his 19-year career.

He displayed excellent power for his position, averaging over 24 home runs person during an 11-year stretch and finishing his career with 324 long balls. Despite playing a position that requires frequent days off, Carter led the league in RBI in 1984 with 106 amidst a stellar .294/.366/.487 campaign in which he also launched 27 long balls. That was one of four seasons with 100 or more RBI.

Carter wasn't a great average hitter, as few catchers are, but he took enough walks to boost his on-base percentage to a respectable .335. Combining that with his thump, he posted a 115 OPS+ during his time in the bigs. His competition for this spot may be weak, but Carter's performance makes his a worthy member of the roster.

Other well-known Carters: Okay, I don't know any really well-known Carters, but I once had a pastor with that name. See if you recognize one of these guys.

Honorable mentions: Bill Dickey and Jason Kendall.

First base


Things get a little contentious here, as a debate can be had about what qualifies a player for a position. (You also could argue about whether Gehrig and Anson are first names, but Curt Schilling's son and Potsie Weber don't provide a large enough sample size to convince me to allow those names.)

I have a strong interest in pre-1900 baseball, including playing vintage base ball using the rules, clothing and terminology of the times. However, I have difficulty reckoning the stats of those early days with more modern numbers. Was Roger Connor really the best first sacker with two first names? From 1880 to 1897, he hit .316/.397/.486 for a 153 OPS+, and he contributed 138 home runs when such gaudy displays of power often were looked upon with disdain.

Still, the rules and level of competition were such that a solid comparison between then and now is sketchy. So, while I'll acknowledge that Connor was a terrific ballplayer, I'm going with a different choice for this spot.

Eddie Murray is a Hall of Famer just like Connor, and his stats certainly support his candidacy on this team. He batted .287/.359/.476 for a career OPS+ mark of 129. His 504 homers put him second only to Mickey Mantle among switch-hitters, and Murray drove in 1917 runs while scoring 1627.

His initial big league campaign earned him Rookie of the Year honors, and he was good enough with the leather when he was young to garner three Gold Gloves. Eight All-Star nods and nine top-11 MVP finishes—including back-to-back runner-up seasons in 1982 and '83—put the finishing touches on Murray's resume.

Other well-known Murrays: Everyone's favorite blogger, the infamous Murray Chass (I refuse to provide a link) and the dog from "Mad About You."

Honorable mentions: Roger Connor, Bill Terry, and Will Clark.

Second base


With Robinson Cano's emergence as a superstar, he not only is climbing up the leader board of top second sackers, his first name—given in honor of Jackie Robinson—has made several prominent players eligible for this squad. (Yes, I disqualified Lou Gehrig earlier despite Curt Schilling naming his son after the Iron Horse, but let's wait until the younger Schilling reaches the majors before granting a waiver on the name.)

Jackie Robinson was a terrific player and a man of impressive character, but his relatively short career doesn't match up to the premiere two-first-names player at his position.

It's very difficult to argue that this should be anyone other than Joe Morgan. After receiving two cups of coffee in 1963 and '64, Morgan hit the ground running as a 21-year-old keystoner in 1965, leading the league in walks while finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting. His amazing patience and bat control led to a lifetime strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1015:1865. Yep, Morgan walked close to twice as often as he went down swinging.

His fantastic all-around game included:

{exp:list_maker}18 seasons of double-digit steals, including eight years with over 40 swipes, a single-season high of 67 in both 1973 and '75, and a grand total of 689 steals, 11th all time
13 seasons with double-digit homers (peaking in 1976 with 27)
10 All-Star appearances
eight seasons scoring 100-plus runs
two MVPs (in 1975 and '76) and three other top-10 finishes {/exp:list_maker}
His triple-slash line of .271/.392/.427 may seem impressive only in the second category, but overall it yielded a 132 OPS+. Morgan was a vital cog in the Big Red Machine and one of the most complete players in big league history.

Other well-known Morgans: Morgan Ensberg and Morgan Fairchild. Also, this seems like a good opportunity to remind everyone about Morganna, the Kissing Bandit.

Honorable mentions: Jackie Robinson, Joe Gordon, Jeff Kent, and Billy Herman.

Third base


Brooks Robinson earned his Human Vacuum Cleaner reputation with his 16 Gold Gloves, and he was awarded the 1964 American League MVP. He's clearly a deserving Hall of Famer, but there's one hot corner player better in this competition—George Brett. While Brett didn't have the defensive chops of Robinson, he has just enough of an edge in the other components of the game to come out ahead.

While Brett earned only a single Gold Glove, he matched Robinson with an MVP award, and Brett also came in second in the voting two more times and third once (Robinson also had one second-place and two third-place finishes). The home run advantage goes to Brett, 317-268, as do the RBI (1,596-1,357) and runs scored (1,583-1,232) categories. There's no contest in stolen bases, with Brett's 201 dominating Robinson's 28.

Yes, the eras these two men played in were different, but Brett's .305/.369/.487 line translates to a 135 OPS+, well ahead of Robinson's 104 mark based on his .267/.322/.401 totals. Baseball-Reference's WAR give Brett a 10-point edge, 88.4 to 78.4, and I concur that Brett takes the title in this close contest.

Other well-known Bretts: Brett Butler, Brett Favre and Bret Michaels

Honorable mentions: Brooks Robinson, Dick Allen, and Bob Elliott.

Shortstop


Nope, the existence of Vaughn Eshelman isn't quite enough to make Arky Vaughan eligible. However, Wallace Shawn and his famous quote (along with others named Wally) resonate enough for Bobby Wallace to merit consideration, though his turn-of-the-century career and therefore incomplete numbers make evaluating his total contribution difficult.

Delving deeper into the shortstop list, we find Pee Wee Reese. His first name was actually Harold, but when was the last time anyone ever called him that? The Brooklyn Dodgers spark plug was another of those all-around solid talents. Reese topped out at 16 homers in 1949, and he only once stole 30 bases (leading the league with that total in 1952), but he sure knew how to work a walk, as his .269/.366/.377 triple-slash numbers evince.

Reese also crossed the plate 1,338 times despite missing three seasons due to military service. The 10-time All-Star earned MVP votes in 13 of his 16 major league seasons, finishing in the top 10 eight times. He was on seven squads that appeared in the World Series, though the Dodgers only came out on top in one of their seven meetings with the Yankees during his tenure.

He may not be the most impressive member of this roster, but Reese was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veteran's Committee in 1984, and the Little Colonel is a fine addition to this team.

Other well-known Reeses: Reese Witherspoon, and I had two co-workers each with a child named Reese, one boy and one girl.

Honorable mentions: Bobby Wallace, Travis Jackson, and Cecil Travis.

Left field


Pete Rose is not only the best left fielder fitting our needs, his name also is a sentence unto itself. (And no, I'm not letting Henderson Alvarez make Rickey Henderson eligible. Hey, it's my list.)

Rose really could have qualified for this team at five different positions, as he played more than 500 games each in left field and right field and at first, second and third bases.

What's there to say that's not known about Rose? We're all familiar with his 4,256 hits to go along with the most games played and plate appearances marks. He won the 1963 NL ROY award and the NL MVP a decade later and was a top-10 vote-getter for that award 10 times. Rose made the All-Star team in 17 different seasons and won Gold Gloves in 1969 and '70, though he was primarily a right fielder in those campaigns.

His willingness—and ability—to play wherever he was needed, and to do so with a burning passion that earned him the nickname "Charlie Hustle," endeared Rose to his teammates, management and fans, particularly those in his home town of Cincinnati, where he achieved his greatest glory.

How much did Rose love the game of baseball? This quote says it all: "I'd walk through hell in a gasoline suit to play baseball." You want a guy with that much desire and intensity on your team.

Other well-known Roses: Red, American Beauty (what an awful movie), and this lady.

Honorable mentions: Fred Clarke, Joe Kelley, Sid Gordon, and Frank Howard.

Center field


This one took some digging. There's no Mays-, Cobb- or Mantle-level players to choose from, and we finally get to our first non-Hall of Famer (among those eligible). He's no slouch, and he may be better than a few Hall of Fame center fielders, so it's with pleasure that Fred Lynn is appointed to the roster.

The first—and until Ichiro Suzuki crossed the Pacific, the only—player to win the MVP and ROY awards in the same season, Lynn may rarely, if ever, have reached that height again, but he certainly was a heck of a ballplayer. He also earned an All-Star nod (one of nine total) and a Gold Glove (one of four overall) in his initial season of 1975. Solid performances followed for the next three years until 1979, when Lynn posted a line of .333/.424/.637, leading the league in all three categories and in OPS+ at 176.

After a trade from the Red Sox to the Angels prior to the 1981 season, he slumped badly in his first campaign in California, but he bounced back to again produce steady numbers across the board. Lynn had a freakish seven-year run from 1982 to 1988 in which he hit 21, 22, 23, 23, 23, 23, and 25 home runs.

Lynn's career totals of 306 long balls, 1,111 RBI, 1,063 runs and a 129 OPS+ highlight that he was a strong player for a long time. He falls short of Hall of Fame worthiness, but he's an asset to this team.

Other well-known Lynns: Lynn Swann, Lynn Redgrave, Loretta Lynn, and my uncle. (You don't want links to those last three.)

Honorable mentions: Willie Wilson, Hack Wilson, Torii Hunter, Mike Cameron, and Amos Otis.

Right field


I have to choose? Seriously, Frank Robinson doesn't merit more than a passing mention in this discussion, and he was awesome. But when the competition has last names of Ruth and Aaron, you're out of luck.

Unfortunately, I have to say the same about Hank Aaron. Despite being a consistently stellar ballplayer for two decades, I have to give the nod to the guy who revolutionized the game.

Babe Ruth hit homers when homers weren't cool, but he did so with such gusto and flamboyance that he made them cool. When he retired with his 714 home runs, only two other players—Gehrig and Rogers Hornsby—had even 300.

A full list of Ruth's accomplishments would take too long and mostly be retelling things everyone already knows. Still, various seasons throughout his career—when they only played 154 games—produced 60 homers, 171 RBI, 177 runs scored, batting averages topping .370, on-base percentages over .500, slugging marks over .800, and OPS+ values above 220. In fact, his career OPS+ was 206!

Oh, yeah, and there's the fact that he began his career as a pitcher, going 94-46 with a 122 ERA+. In two World Series, he went 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA. The man simply can not be topped.

Other well-known Ruths: Ruth Bader Ginsberg, the book of the bible, and Baby Ruth.

Honorable mentions: Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson,Reggie Jackson and Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Starting pitcher


Beginning his career in a low-scoring environment but finishing in a significant higher-scoring one, Grover Cleveland "Pete" Alexander held his own for the better part of 20 years. Not surprisingly, he was at his best in his late 20s, when his physical talents and mental prowess were at their combined peak.

From his age-24 rookie year in 1911 through his seventh season, Alexander threw over 300 innings each year and won between 19 and 33 games. An all-but-lost year in 1918 was followed by a return to form for a couple more seasons before he tapered off into merely very, very good for another decade.

All told, Alexander won 373 games with a .642 winning percentage, throwing 5,190 innings with a 136 ERA+. He completed 437 of the 600 games he started, and he finished off another 80 in relief, retroactively being credited with 32 saves. His 90 shutouts are second all time behind Walter Johnson, though his 2,198 strikeouts (3.8 K/9) demonstrate how the game has changed.

He had one of the longer full names in baseball history, but giving him the nod as the ace of this squad took a very short time.

Other well-known Alexanders: Alexander the Great, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Graham Bell. (Yes, I'm running out of good links. Sorry.)

Honorable mentions: Oh, forget the honorable mentions; these guys round out the phenomenal rotation: Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan, Gaylord Perry, and Tommy John.

Relief pitcher


The clear leader in saves of two-first-name relievers is John Franco with 424, including 11 seasons with 28 or more. The only closers ahead of him on the saves list are Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman,and Lee Smith, and he is two saves ahead of Billy Wagner for the lead among southpaws.

Franco was a four-time All-Star who recorded a 138 ERA+ in 1,245.2 innings. He managed to win 90 games, including 12 in 1985, despite never starting a single game.

We're talking about a reliever on a squad with this starting pitching staff, so it's not like he'd throw many innings. Still, if the need arose to slam the door shut at the end of the ballgame, Franco would be an excellent choice.

Other well-known Francos: Franco Harris is the only one that comes to mind, but this catch is more than enough to make up for his lack of colleagues.

Honorable mentions: Tom Gordon, Stu Miller, and Joe Nathan.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> Greg Simons 2013-06-18T07:13:26+00:00 AL East division update: June edition http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/al-east-division-update-june-edition/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/al-east-division-update-june-edition/#When:07:07:15

Boston Red Sox


Standings
The Sox are first (42-29), on the strength of the league’s best offense per Fangraphs’ WAR. Sporting almost identical home (21-14) and road (21-15) records, they are a game and a half above Baltimore, having scored 73 more runs than they have given up,
Most valuable player
Clay Buchholz looks as shiny as Cy Young in June. After doubts about the sustainability of his April dominance, he’s posted, in June, his best strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.00 even) and is generating ground balls (52.9 percent groundball rate) and weak contact (22.2 percent infield fly ball rate) aplenty. Spitball rumors aside, Buchholz looks like a top 10 pitcher this calendar year.
Least valuable player
To call Will Middlebrooks’ sophomore season anything short of a disaster would be kind. After 75 thoroughly impressive games last season that left a resume littered with red flags (0.19 walk to strikeout rate) and pop-outs (15 homers in less than half-a-season’s worth of at-bats), Middlebrooks has tumbled, becoming an offensive and defensive liability. He’s been slower (his speed rating has dropped), less patient at the dish (a terrible 0.14 walk to strikeout rate), and worse in the field (he’s been more than four fielding runs below average, per UZR). At this writing, Middlebrooks is the only Boston everydayer who has clocked in below the Mendoza Line and Replacement Level Lines both.
Deadline necessity
The Sox have a deluge of capable bullpen arms, even after Joel Hanrahan’s fall to a torn flexor tendon, and could swing one of the redundant, talented Japanese righties in their pen—Koji Uehera or Junichi Tazawa—or even a low-level prospect for a lefty-masher to have on the bench. The Sox hitters are only .248/.326/.390 against left-handed pitching this year, and that with some minor good fortune on the fall of the ball (.311 batting average on balls in play).
Playoff odds
Per ESPN, 81.2 percent; per Baseball Prospectus, 77.4 percent.
Sustainability (10 scale)
Eight. Though there’s still a half a season of baseball left, the Sox have no glaring holes, a properly stocked farm system (in Triple-A alone, there lies starting pitching in Rubby de la Rosa and Allen Webster; catching in the major-league christened Ryan Lavarnway; explosive talent up the middle of the field in the recently-promoted Xander Bogaerts; and a future lefty-killer in Jackie Bradley Jr.), and the advantage of middling juggernauts like the Los Angeles Angels and, to a lesser extent, the Toronto Blue Jays. Look for the Sox to make the playoffs cleanly.

Baltimore Orioles


Standings
The O’s are second (40-30), thanks in part to an offense that leads the league in home runs (92) and slugging percentage (.453).
Most Valuable Player
Just three years ago, Chris Davis was spending half of another season with the Texas Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate, the Round Rock Express. Today, Davis has transformed himself into a patient masher with similar plate discipline to Carlos Gonzalez and Paul Goldschmidt: four true outcomes—a lot of walks, a lot of strikeouts, a lot of line drives, and a lot of bullet home runs. Davis leads the league in home runs (23) and isolated power (.363), among other categories, and has anchored a surprising offensive force in Baltimore.
Least valuable player
The grand honor is a toss-up between Nolan Reimold, he of 113 wasteful plate appearances and Freddy Garcia, who has allowed an absurd 15 home runs in just nine starts. Let’s focus on Garcia as a way to segue into the Orioles’ desperate need for starting pitching at the deadline; after all, he still has a rotation spot, this despite his best efforts. He, kid you not, has received considerable good fortune from the powers that be: he has a .232 BABIP (50 points below his career average) and he’s stranding far too many men on base (his 82.5 percent left-on-base rate should look closer to 70). Oh... this all while his strikeout rate has reached new lows.
Deadline necessity
How better to illustrate the glaring necessity than through Freddy Garcia? The Orioles have tried patch-ups and preemptive call-ups (Kevin Gausman, power-prospect, had no business making five starts at his development level), and must be longing for a clean bill of health from wunderkind pitcher Dylan Bundy, who has suffered from elbow issues this year. The O’s staff is, by most measurements, near the bottom of the bottom third in all of baseball; they could use a Yovani Gallardo, a Ricky Nolasco, a Bud Norris and a Matt Garza, all.
Playoff odds
Per ESPN, 43.8 percent; per Baseball Prospectus, 40.1 percent.
Sustainability
Four. Unless they stitch their starting rotation in a real manner, the Orioles might be in trouble. Count me among those who believe Chris Davis’ batting average will end up closer to .280 than .340. Count me among those who believe Manny Machado will look like a league-average offensive third baseman the rest of the way. And count me among those who would be ultra-worried—if I had any allegiance to the O’s—about the fact that not a single Orioles starter—save Gausman, ironically—has an xFIP below 4.00.

New York Yankees


Standings
The Yankees are third (38-31), and are the first of the three teams we have studied with stronger pitching than hitting. The Yankees have a noteworthy discrepancy between home and away performance so far: their record at home (19-13) is much shinier than their road record (19-18).
Most valuable player
The easiest prize to give belongs, unquestionably, to Robinson Cano. Sure, Brett Gardner matches his hits total and surpasses him in fielding metrics, batting average, on-base percentage, runs scored, and stolen bases. Forget about all of that: Gardner has batted with Cano behind him more than half the time, the ultimate form of protection. But Cano—with volatile Vernon Wells, the up-and-down Kevin Youkilis, and the free-swinging Travis Hafner on his back—has been a force, even as his batting average has tumbled. Take his June, for example: even as his balls fail to fall (.227 BABIP and a .222 batting average), he’s remained a league average batsman, thanks to his skyrocketed patience (1.13 walks per every strikeout in June, compared to a 0.45 mark in May).
Least valuable player
Call me bitter, but Mark Teixeira has been the biggest parasite to the Yankees over the past month, which, incidentally, has been the worst stretch of the season for the Bombers. Since he’s returned from a nagging wrist injury (that he just re-aggravated, begging the question: did he come back too soon?), the team has gone 8-8. The offensive output is dismal: there are only four games in all of June in which the Yankees have scored more four or more runs. And in that span, Tex has had more than 50 mostly empty at-bats (.151/.270/.340) in the heart of the Yankees order.
Deadline necessity
With Curtis Granderson (who will take Vernon Wells’ spot) and Derek Jeter (who will render David Adams useless) on the mend (but still on the horizon), the Yankees have a few necessary offensive reinforcements on the way. The Yankees sport a dismal .240 team batting average at this writing, and have holes all over the field: they could use offense in the left side of their infield (Adams and Jayson Nix have a combined three home runs and 65 hits in 71 combined games), in the outfield (to spell the offensively challenged Ichiro Suzuki every once in a blue moon), and in the DH hole (preferably a lefty-killer who can share time with Hafner, which would also bolster the bench).
Playoff odds
Per ESPN, 32.9 percent; per Baseball Prospectus, 62.4 percent.
Sustainability
Six. June has been a slightly tumultuous time to be a Yankees fan, but this tumble is during the peak of storm of injuries—the offense should see a big lift with the impending return of Granderson and Jeter soon after the All-Star break. The shine has worn off the offensive stopgaps like Wells, Youkilis and Lyle Overbay, and the Yankees needn’t wait until the July 31 deadline to make a splash in the market. In a year of survival, the Yankees are on the verge of thriving.

Tampa Bay Rays


Standings
The Rays are more talented than their record (36-33) and fourth-place standing might indicate. Based on how many runs they should have scored and projected winning percentage, respectively, the Rays are—according to Baseball Prospectus —closer to a 38 or 39 win team at this juncture.
Most valuable player
Evan Longoria is showing what he can do with a clean bill of health: riding the wave of a fortunate BABIP, Longoria is besting his career highs in slugging percentage (.552, better than his .531 mark his rookie year), weighted on-base percentage (.390, better than last year’s .378), and batting average (.306, better than his .294 total in 2010). After missing 29 and 88 games the previous two seasons, respectively, he’s been a steady boon in the middle of the Rays’ batting order, not missing a single game. Icing on the cake, in summary: 3.8 fWAR is more than double the next-best total on the team, which belongs to the surprise story of the century, James Loney.
Least valuable player
Yes, closers are often some combination of overrated, misused, abused or overhyped. But Fernando Rodney, slotted in the ninth inning all year, has a win probability added of -1.53; by most metrics, Rodney has hurt the Rays more than he’s helped them, and seems to be holding his post simply because of superior work in 2012. Most were surprised when Rodney—fresh from a disastrous 39-game stint with the Angels, in which he walked 28 and only struck out 26—posted a 76:15 strikeout to walk ratio last year while tallying 48 saves. Hell: he got Cy Young votes. But the past is a grotesque animal: he’s a mere 14-for-19 this year on save chances, has reverted to his wild ways with the walk, and has sunk below the replacement level. It’s time for a change.
Deadline necessity
The fearsome threesome that was supposed to be Matt Moore and David Price and Jeremy Hellickson has been subpar, bad, and worse. Alex Cobb, breakout pitcher of 2013 (3.00 xFIP, clean!) just got smoked with an liner to the head, and will undoubtedly miss some time and the artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona is a fifth starter in name, practice and dreaming. The Rays need pitching, and not in the form of Chris Archer (top pitcher at Triple-A, who nonetheless cannot manage a sub-4.00 FIP this year on the farm), if they want to sneak into the playoffs as a Wild Card team again.
Playoff odds
Per ESPN, 41.1 percent; per Baseball Prospectus, 35.0 percent.
Sustainability
Five. The Rays are riding on the coattails of Longoria and a few unsustainable hitters otherwise (i.e., Loney), though their offense is third in the league in fWAR despite a .290 BABIP and a .258 batting average. Wil Myers should help keep the offense afloat as some come back down to Earth; but without a deadline shakeup, the pitching seems destined to sink this ship.

Toronto Blue Jays


Standings
Eight and two in their last 10 games, the Blue Jays have climbed all the way up to 32-36, still last in the AL East, and still outscored (by 15 runs overall). The bad news: The Jays are, by Baseball Prospectus metrics, as subpar as they seem so far, scoring as many runs as would have been expected (if not more). None of their three algorithms have the Blue Jays as a .500 team or better so far.
Most valuable player
This iteration of Jose Bautista has been closer to last season (roughly 40 percent better than league average on offense) than the year before (roughly 82 percent better than league average, both per wRC+), but he is undoubtedly the Blue Jays’ best player in 2013. His line is mostly built on the strength of an otherworldly May, where he reached 57 times in 130 plate appearances. Colby Rasmus looks rejuvenated, too, and is a close second in this voting.
Least valuable player
The easy answer is R.A. Dickey, if expectations (another Cy Young season) versus reality (half a win above the replacement level) is the main criterion considered. The real answer is Brandon Morrow, who owns an awful trio of ratios (5.63/5.43/4.56), an awfully ineffective fastball (nine runs below average on his four-seamer, per Fangraphs’ PITCHf/x), and a still-dwindling strikeout rate (at sub-seven strikeouts per nine, he’s inching farther away from his double digit readings in 2010 and 2011).
Deadline necessity
N/A. With such playoff odds, the Blue Jays should call this season the bust it is. They should rest the broken and battered (Dickey included), shop the overpaid (Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson, and maybe Melky Cabrera, too, if anyone wants him), and give a few youngsters a taste of time in the big leagues.
Playoff odds
Per ESPN, 12.1 percent; per Baseball Prospectus, 5.0 percent.
Sustainability
Nine. The glitter was not gold: they have an offense too reliant on the home run (fourth in baseball in homers; 17th in total offensive fWAR), an enigmatic pitching staff and an injury-plagued roster up and down. I don’t foresee a turnaround from the doldrums of spring.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> Nick Fleder 2013-06-18T07:07:01+00:00 THT Awards http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/tht-awards061813/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/tht-awards061813/#When:07:06:15
All stats are for Monday, June 10 through Sunday, June 16. Please see the week one column for category explanations.

This week’s proof that assigning wins and losses to a pitcher is an archaic practice that must stop

Good luck division

Lance Lynn managed to get the win despite getting blasted for seven runs in five innings on the road in Miami. The Marlins smacked nine hits and walked three times. The Cardinals scored nine runs off Marlins starter Tom Koehler in four and two thirds.

Jordan Zimmermann and Scott Kazmir combined to allow 11 runs on 12 hits and five walks in seven and two thirds. Neither took the loss.

Alex Cobb started Monday’s 14-inning game for the Rays, yielding six runs to the Red Sox in four innings before getting pulled. In the remaining 10 innings of action, the Rays bullpen allowed four runs. All the best to Cobb as it looks like he's going to okay after taking that liner off the head.

Thanks to R.A. Dickey’s continued struggles, Dylan Axelrod escaped with six runs allowed in four innings on eight hits and four walks, striking out only one but no loss.

Chien-Ming Wang and Jose Quintana combined to allow nine runs in 13 and two thirds on 16 hits and four walks, striking out eight. Neither took the loss.

Mat Latos and Jeff Samardzija combined to allow nine runs on 18 hits and five walks in 12 innings. Neither was given the loss in what ended up as a 14-inning game.

Kyle Kendrick and Juan Nicasio combined to allow 12 runs on 17 hits and four walks in 10 innings. Neither took the loss.

Bad luck division

Justin Verlander held the Royals scoreless for seven innings, allowing only three hits and two walks, striking out eight. He fell victim to a Jose Valverde blown save. The other starting pitcher in the game was James Shields, who is having an epic bad luck season. This time the Valverde implosion was the only thing keeping him from the loss. He held the Tigers to two runs in six innings on seven hits and two walks, striking out six. Both starters performed admirably. Verlander was let down by his bullpen. Shields was let down by the Kansas City lineup.

Jeremy Bonderman pitched eight scoreless for the Mariners against the Astros, giving up only three hits and two walks, striking out five. Tom Wilhelmsen blew the save. On the other side of this one was Jordan Lyles, who threw seven shutout for Houston, yielding only three hits and two walks, striking out 10 Seattle batters. Obviously neither pitcher took the win despite their matching 79 games scores.

Brandon League is awful right now and it cost Clayton Kershaw a win at home against the Diamondbacks. Kershaw held the Snakes to one runs in seven frames on six hits and two walks, striking out five. But League was able to retire only two batters and was charged with four runs.

In Kershaw’s second start of the week, he held the Pirates to one run in seven frames on three hits and three walks, striking out eight. This time it was Kenley Jansen who let Kershaw down, blowing the save.

Matt Harvey’s first loss of 2013 came at the hands of the Cardinals, who scored all of one run off the wunderkind. Harvey yielded five hits and one walk, striking out seven along the way. Seven scoreless innings from Adam Wainwright and another one from Trevor Rosenthal ensured the loss.

Chris Sale went eight innings, allowed two runs on five hits and one walk, struck out 14, and took the loss as the Astros held the White Sox to one run in the game.

P.J. Walters gave the Twins seven and a third, allowing two runs on six hits and one walk, striking out five Phillies along the way. He failed to record the win.

Zack Greinke went seven innings for the Dodgers, allowing two runs on two hits and two walks, striking out five. The Dodgers failed to score in time to get him the win that went to reliever Matt Guerrier.

Travis Wood went seven frames for the Cubs, allowing two runs on four hits and two walks, striking out four. He took the loss as the North Siders could manage only one run off Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman.

Hiroki Kuroda and Jarrod Parker combined to allow four runs in 16 innings. Neither took the win.

Gio Gonzalez and Justin Masterson combined to allow two runs in 14 innings on five hits and eight walks, striking out 18. They each took a no-decision.

Matt Garza posted a game score of 74 at Citi Field. He was victimized by Carlos Marmol’s blown save, in which he allowed four runs and notably two home runs and recorded only one out—that on a sacrifice bunt.

Vulture Award

Brian Duensing blew the save, his second blown save of the season and was later redeemed when the Twins scored a run off Mike Adams and Antonio Bastardo. Duensing was granted his first win of the season.

Wes Littleton Award

In protecting a three-run lead at home against the Yankees, Grant Balfour retired the amazingly not on the disabled list yet Travis Hafner, the suddenly noticing it isn’t April anymore Vernon Wells, and the always Jayson Nix Jayson Nix.

With a three-un lead, Ernesto Frieri retired David Adams, Reid Brignac, and pinch hitter Hafner for his 15th save of the year.

Andrew Bailey nearly blew the save in Baltimore. He entered with a three-run lead and allowed a single and a home run. He allowed another single and escaped when Alexi Casilla got doubled off first base on a Ryan Flaherty fly ball for the third out.

Please hold the applause

In recording his fifth hold of the season and protecting a three-run lead, Marmol retired John Buck, Omar Quintanilla and Juan Lagares.

Any sufficiently advanced defense is indistinguishable from pitching

Clayton Richard held the Diamondbacks to one run on seven hits in eight innings despite striking out only one of the 28 batters he faced.

Doug Fister held the Royals to three runs in a complete game on Monday. He did this despite striking out only three of the 31 Royals he faced.

Joe Carter Award

Unbelievably, Brandon Phillips drove in 10 runs this week while batting a horrific .194/.242/.290 in 33 plate appearances. A runner was in scoring position for every one of his six hits. His one extra base hit was a grand slam. And he even had two opportunities to drive in a run on a ground out. It strange how often you come to bat with runners in scoring position when you bat immediately behind Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Votto, who are currently first and second place in the National League in OBP. Wait, strange isn’t the correct word. The word I’m looking for is obvious.

Logan Forsythe batted .222/.250/.389 and plated six runs for the Padres in 19 PA.

Sanchez Award

Peter Bourjos collected seven hits in 21 PA. That was the sum total of his production at the plate as he ended the week at .333/.333/.333.

Similarly, Willie Bloomquist went .316/.316/.316 in 19 PA.

Omar Infante put up a .300/.300/.300 line in 20 PA.

Maicer Izturis went .308/.308/.385 in 26 PA.

Jayson Nix posted a limp .280/.280/.320 in 25 PA.

Ryan Sweeney is a career .281/.339/.381 hitter in 1,788 AB, so it is of no surprise that he tossed up .278/.316/.389 in 19 PA this week.

Given his career rates, it is a bit more surprising that Justin Morneau went .273/.304/.364 this week, but it is in line with his .288/.341/.379 line for the season, it isn’t a shocker.

Harmon Killebrew Award

All of Colby Rasmus’ four hits were home runs and he added four walks for a unique .222/.364/.889 line in 22 PA.

Lucas Duda managed only four hits in 22 PA, but because of three walks and the fact that two of the four hits were of the extra base variety, he posted a .211/.348/.421 line.

Nelson Cruz went .227/.346/.445 in 26 PA.

Jayson Werth overcame seven strikeouts in 21 at-bats and the fact that his name is misspelled to hit .238/.360/.476.

Lastly, Jhonny Peralta rode six walks to a .222/.417/.333 line in 24 PA.

Steve Balboni Award

Mark Reynolds struck out 11 times this week, most in baseball. He posted a .136/.174/.273 line in his 23 PA.

Chris McGuiness whiffed in 10 of his 23 PA and went .174/.174/.174.

Dan Uggla struck out eight times in 19 PA and posted a .125/.263/.125 line.

Adam LaRoche struck out eight times and gave the Nationals a limp .091/.167/.136 line in 24 PA.

Chris Carter led the Astros in strikeouts this week with nine in 22 PA. He ended the week at .190/.227/.429.

Stephen Drew’s .083/.115/.125 week can be traced back to nine Ks in 25 PA.

Finally, long time readers of the Awards will expect me to note Alfonso Soriano’s 10 strikeouts in 29 PA and his .143/.138/.143. I wouldn’t want to disappoint my loyal readers.

Among other notable batters who had poor weeks punctuated by alarming strikeout rates were Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Lorenzo Cain, Travis Hafner, Chase Headley, Josh Donaldson, Omar Quintanilla, J.D. Martinez and Kyle Blanks.

Three true outcomes

Ryan Zimmerman homered twice, walked three times, and struck out nine times in 26 PA.

Evan Longoria smacked four home runs, walked four times, and struck out eight times in 30 PA.

Rasmus was able to do what he did by his four-four-seven TTO line in 22 PA.

Chris Davis did what Chris Davis does, going three-three-eight in 29 PA for the Orioles.

He’s a little shy on the strikeouts, but Matt Joyce’s four-five-three is worth a mention.

Jose Bautista went three-two-eight in 27 PA.

Rounding out the group, Werth went one-four-seven in 25 PA.

The anti-TTO

Melky Cabrera did not homer or walk and he struck out only once in 27 PA.

Prince Fielder is a bit of a surprise with his zero-one-zero in 26 PA.

Nolan Arenado went zero-two-zero in 25 PA.

Darwin Barney and Ben Revere each went zero-zero-two . Barney did it in 31 PA while Revere had 28 PA.

Finally, Cody Ross went zero-zero-three in 27 PA.

This week’s MVP

AL: Joyce went .385/.500/.923 in 31 PA. Of his 10 hits, four were singles, two were doubles, and four went over the fence.

Also notable was Jason Kipnis, who posted a .524/.593/.762 in 25 PA.

NL: Buster Posey had a good week, even on a Buster Posey scale. The defending MVP collected 11 hits, including five doubles. His line was a sparkling .423/.464/.615.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> John Barten 2013-06-18T07:06:35+00:00 The Rangers have painted themselves into a corner http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-rangers-have-painted-themselves-into-a-corner/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-rangers-have-painted-themselves-into-a-corner/#When:07:05:15 Ian Kinsler from the disabled list, the Rangers were forced to make a decision on top prospect Jurickson Profar. He had been the primary fill-in at second base for Kinsler during his absence, although inexplicably the Rangers elected not to start him at second or his natural shortstop position in a quarter (seven) of the 28 games Kinsler missed.

But now upon Kinsler's return, the Rangers have three choices if they want Profar to continue see consistent at-bats: (1) send him back to Triple-A where he can play every day, (2) find another position on the field for Profar, or (3) find another position on the field for Kinsler.

With their desire to keep the most talented team on the major league roster (which seems obvious, but isn't always the only determining factor when it comes to roster decisions), the Rangers have elected to send utility infielder Leury Garcia to the minors and keep Profar on the major league roster, leaving them with the best team on paper, but the challenge of working Profar into the lineup on some sort of regular basis.

It also leaves the Rangers right back where they were in spring training.

This situation could not have come as a surprise for the Rangers, and yet they are scrambling for ideas like a panicked babysitter looking for a clean diaper. Ideas were tossed about all spring in an attempt to find a way to get Profar, Kinsler and current shortstop Elvis Andrus all in the lineup at the same time. The solution in April was to send Profar to Triple-A, which was essentially just delaying the inevitable dilemma that is now at hand. Moving Kinsler either to first base or left field was considered, and Kinsler said all the right things despite reports that he might not be too keen on the idea of moving.

Asking a veteran to move is one thing. Asking him to move midseason is another altogether. A position change is bound to come with an embarrassing moment or two, and veteran players are a proud bunch who don't like to be embarrassed. If the Rangers were going to move Kinsler, the time was this March, or the time will be this winter. The time is not now.

Which leaves Profar as the one to move. Such is the hierarchy of baseball. The Rangers came to this conclusion as well, declaring that they are going to attempt to turn Profar into a "functional left fielder" in an attempt to play him there a couple of times per week.

The idea of playing Profar in the outfield is fine, for now, given that the alternative is putting him in the minors or letting him waste away on the bench. It's certainly worth a shot, assuming that the move is only a temporary fix for this season. It wouldn't be the first time a top prospect played an inferior defensive position simply to work his bat into the lineup. We remember a 19-year-old Andruw Jones hitting two home runs in Game One of the 1996 World Series, but don't forget that be played primarily left field on that team after his call up, despite having all of the ability that let to 10 straight Gold Gloves starting just two years later.

So as long as this is a temporary move, the Rangers really have very little to lose here, and they haven't exactly told Profar to burn his infielder's glove. In fact, the plan remains to work him into the infield a few times a week as well, spelling Kinsler and Andrus occasionally while also working Kinsler in at DH from time to time. We don't know if Profar can handle left field, but between the options of Profar and Kinsler trying to learn a new position on the fly, I'll take the more cooperative 20-year-old with more athleticism any day.

But the fact that we don't know if Profar can handle the outfield is the real problem for the Rangers here, and it's the one that's going mostly overlooked. We can debate all day whether moving Profar to left field is a good move, but the facts of that one are pretty simple—if the move is permanent, then it's a terrible use of a player with incredibly more positional value and he should probably be traded instead, but if it's just for this year, than it probably won't hurt. But how can the Rangers have no idea at this point if Profar can play left field?

This problem did not sneak up on the Rangers. The articles about Kinsler that I linked above were all from this spring. Most of March in Rangers camp was surrounded by the uncertainty of how this problem would inevitably be played out. Hell, I wrote about it in February when the possibility of Nelson Cruz getting suspended for his role in the Biogenesis Scandal came out.

The solution of sending Profar to the minors was only temporary, and we all knew that he would be up in the majors at some point, likely to fill in for an injured player, which is exactly what happened. Knowing that second base would be a possibility, the Rangers used Profar there some in the minors this season and had done the same last year. But why did no one think to try him out a few games in the outfield? How is this overlooked? Just a few games, just in case. It wasn't a far-fetched possibility.

This was a problem that could be seen from a mile away, or in this case, three months away. They had the wherewithal to use Profar at second base despite a proven veteran who doesn't want to move blocking Profar's path there, but no one thought it would be a good idea to let him play four or five games in the outfield, just to see how he tracks a fly ball? Profar didn't even play the outfield in little league. His first test is really going to be in Arlington, not Round Rock?

He might be fine. We don't know. The Rangers don't know. But they should. Profar is absolutely one of the 25 most talented players in the Rangers organization and needs to be on the major league roster and in the lineup as often as possible, but to roll the dice in a pennant race is irresponsible. The Rangers have said they think Profar can pick up left field in "7-10 days." They have to hope a misplayed fly ball doesn't cost them a game between now and then.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> Jeff Moore 2013-06-18T07:05:46+00:00 Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 12, Vol. I http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-12-vol.-i/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-12-vol.-i/#When:07:06:15
So it is with immense pleasure that I abuse the privilege of writing for The Hardball Times (which is just a great place, in spite of me) to point out that the Cubs won their series against the Mets this weekend and would have swept them were it not for a garbage walk-off home run by Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Better luck next time, Karl! Time to dive into the wire, but first let's look at some players who have appeared in this space recently.

Corey Kluber threw eight innings of one-run ball Sunday and remains a guy I like.

Luis Valbuena's triple slash is at .237/.354/.414, and although he's still splitting time with Cody Ransom, he's provided value where most saw none at third base in Chicago.

Logan Morrison has missed time recently with lower-back stiffness, although the team expects him back in the lineup Monday. The injuries are frustrating since he could have real value if he could stay on the field.

Brandon McCarthy has resumed throwing, and reportedly his shoulder feels good. He could be back sooner than many think and will be a nice pickup upon his return.

Tyler Chatwood returned from his triceps injury and will remain in the Rockies rotation for the time being.

Today let's look at three potential outfield pickups.

Wil Myers | Tampa Bay Rays | OF | ESPN: 56.2 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 38 percent; CBS: 81 percent
YTD: N/A
ZiPS projection: .253/.317/.444 in 558 plate appearances

He's here!

The Rays made the long-awaited call to bring up Wil Myers over the weekend, and his ownership levels already have soared. After a slow start this season, Myers has picked it up lately, hitting .283/.354/.514 in Triple-A after posting a .304/.378/.554 triple slash last year at Triple-A and a sparkling .343/.414/.731 triple slash at Double-A in 2011.

His call to The Show has been a long time coming, as Hardball Times Prospect Guru Jeff Moore dug into a couple of weeks ago:
It's difficult to make the case that Myers is not ready for the majors. Despite his struggles this season, he's now had almost a full year of plate appearances at the highest level of the minors and has hit .286/.366/.505 while there. Most of that success came last season, but it's also understandable to see a 22-year-old kid play somewhat unmotivated baseball when he knows he's ready for the next level, so I'm not too worried about Myers' performance this season. He has enough of a track record.
Recommendation: If you haven't missed the boat on Myers, act now. If you can trade with an owner who thinks he may be cashing in at the apex of Myers' value, you should pursue that.

Marlon Byrd | New York Mets | OF | ESPN: 3.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 3 percent; CBS: 6 percent
YTD: .253/.311/.494 in 181 plate appearances
ZiPS projection: .256/.302/.372 in 372 plate appearances

Now we come to the part of today's column where I recommend adding Marlon Byrd, which is as strange for me to write as anything I've published here all season.

As mentioned earlier, I'm a Cubs fan, and way back in 2010 I really fancied Byrd. The team had signed him cheaply, he provided plus defense in center field, and his bat was respectable. In 2011, he got beaned in the face, his defense wasn't as strong, and his bat was far worse (from a .343 wOBA in 2010 to .317 in 2011).

Last season, he was about as bad at baseball as one could possibly be (for a major league ballplayer, that is), the Cubs dealt him to the Red Sox, and he then was slapped with a PED suspension that seemingly shattered any value he had left. The guy was done. Cooked. Gone.

Last offseason he signed with New York, though, put together a strong spring training, and won the Mets job in right field to open the season. To the astonishment of many, he hasn't relinquished it because he's simply been too good.

Byrd's offensive numbers are back where they were in 2010 with a wOBA of .342. His ISO is the highest it's ever been, at .241. Much of that has to do with an unsustainable home run rate of 20 percent, and it is worrisome that he's hitting only 13.8 percent line drives, but there is clear offensive value here.

Recommendation: Byrd is still just 35 years old, has power and patience in his offensive profile, and will play good enough defense to keep his name on the lineup card for the time being. I cannot believe I'm doing this as I type it, but Byrd is worth owning again. Can't predict baseball, I guess.

Mike Carp | Boston Red Sox | OF | ESPN: 36.8 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 19 percent; CBS: 33 percent
YTD: .320/.372/.680 in 113 plate appearances
ZiPS projection: .287/.345/.541 in 366 plate appearances

Every week when I look for subjects to write about, I look as much for players to caution against as I do for players to add. So when I saw Mike Carp's ownership go through the roof this week on CBS, I knew I'd probably end up writing about him.

Carp's ownership rate jumped from four percent to 30 percent over the past week, in part because of an injury to first baseman Mike Napoli, and in part because the journeyman's power production has been otherworldly thus far in 2013.

I'm not buying here, for two reasons.

First and foremost, the Red Sox say they are "pretty confident" Napoli did not receive a concussion from the ball that hit him in the face (despite having the symptoms of one). Teams have been wrong about these things before, but if Napoli doesn't have a concussion, he surely will be back soon, relegating Carp back to the bench in the process.

Even if Napoli does have a concussion, there's a real chance he could be back soon anyway. In short, I'm not buying an extended absence for Napoli as of yet, and without one, Carp's value is pretty minimal. This is especially true because ...

Beyond that, I'm not buying the power, at least to this extent. Carp's current ISO of .359 is downright Ruthian, and while Carp does have better-than-average power, there's virtually no chance that he's turned into the best power hitter in the history of the game overnight.

Carp's highest ISO at any stop of his professional career before this season was .307, which he posted as a 25-year-old in the Pacific Coast League. His next highest was a .259 mark the season before, also in the PCL. His major league ISO, in 721 plate appearances spread across five partial seasons, is .190—good, but not great.

His .359 mark this year likely benefits from a HR/FB rate that's far above his career average (26.7 percent vs. 15.9 percent). It does bear mentioning, however, that of his eight home runs this season, Hit Tracker Online has five of them listed as "Plenty," along with one "No Doubt" and two "Just Enough." Carp's triple slash also benefits from a BABIP of .391, which very likely will drop, and in turn will lower his numbers across the board.

Recommendation: Carp's value to date has been based too much on factors out of his control (health of other players and luck), and I just don't see enough upside here unless you're very desperate for a short-term fill-in.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> Jack Weiland 2013-06-17T07:06:28+00:00 The Hot Seat http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-hot-seat7/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-hot-seat7/#When:07:02:15 Wil Myers. Heck, even I thought I would write about Myers this week.

His upside is absolutely worth rostering in any league, and he's one of the top prospects in baseball, but I feel pretty confident that there's already plenty of Myers analysis out there for you to enjoy. Also, a conversation I had with THT Fantasy's own Jeffrey Gross on my podcast this week has been on my mind for days, and I feel the need to dig into it.

This week, a spry youngster by the name of Roy Oswalt is expected to be called up from Double-A Tulsa to join the Colorado rotation. While the 35-year-old is certainly a bit old for the level, he has been utterly fantastic, prompting the Rockies to make the call.

Oswalt, who was rated as the #13 overall prospect by Baseball America in 2001, may not have that shiny prospect status he used to, but he still could provide plenty of value for the Rockies and fantasy owners. In his last three starts for Tulsa, Oswalt has tossed 22.1 innings, allowing just four earned runs with a terrific 16:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His last start was especially good, as he pitched 8.1 scoreless innings, scattering five hits and one walk while striking out seven.

When Oswalt signed his minor-league contract with the Rockies last month, few expected him to make an impact this season after his rough stint with Texas last year that ended with a demotion to the bullpen. It sure didn’t help matters that Oswalt would be pitching half his games in hitters' haven Coors Field this season, if he even reached the majors at all. However, there are now plenty of reasons to be optimistic about his potential 2013 contributions.

Last year with the Rangers, Oswalt was pretty bad on the surface, with an ugly 5.80 ERA and a WHIP over 1.50 in 59 innings. However, even a cursory glance at the underlying numbers makes it obvious that he was getting tremendously unlucky. His FIP for the season was 4.23, and his xFIP was even better at 3.27. Also, he struck out a batter an inning and issued just 1.68 walks per nine innings. In fact, his 5.36 K/BB ratio was the best he’d posted since way back in 2001, his rookie season.

The reason Oswalt’s surface stats were so bad last year is a combination of three factors. His strand rate of 67 percent was the worst of his career, his .378 opponents’ BABIP was another career-worst, and the same can be said of his insane 18.6 percent home run-to-flyball ratio.

Please stop yourself before you get all smart and say, “Of course he gave up all those dingers! He was pitching in Arlington! That place is a bandbox! Why should we expect him to be better in Coors?!” Of the eleven homers Oswalt served up last year, just three of them came at home, further underscoring the notion that he was simply experiencing some terrible luck.

His velocity is reportedly up considerably, sitting around 92 and topping out at 95. Since July of 2010, Oswalt has thrown exactly one major league pitch that hit 95 on the radar gun. If his velocity is seriously back to the level it was at three years ago and not just the product of a juiced Double-A ballpark radar gun, this could be exciting.

Oswalt himself has said he feels much better about his chances this year than last year, saying that the Rangers “rushed me a little bit getting me up” last season, while the Rockies “have a better plan, and I feel like I’m a lot more ahead of the game than I was last year.” When you take into context that he didn’t even really pitch that badly last year, it’s an encouraging sign.

Will Oswalt return to his All-Star form from the mid-2000s? It’s incredibly unlikely, but it also wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he’s owned in the majority of fantasy leagues by season’s end. This is a guy with a 3.28 career ERA in 2,213 innings who, because of one “bad” 59-inning sample from last year in Texas, is suddenly an afterthought and a has-been. Kick the tires on Oswalt; you might find more air in them than you expect.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> Scott Strandberg 2013-06-17T07:02:44+00:00 Red Line doubleheaders (part I) http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/red-line-doubleheaders-part-i/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/red-line-doubleheaders-part-i/#When:07:01:15
For each of the last two years, the Chicago contingency at The Hardball Times has a special day at the ballpark—because it’s a special day at two ballparks. We get together and catch a day game on the North Side of town and then sojourn to the South Side for a night game.

It’s an easy trip, as both Wrigley Field and Sox Park are just west of Chicago’s Red Line “L.” (Even with this year’s Red Line construction on the South Side, it’s still a really short walk from the nearby Green Line stop not far from U.S. Cellular Field.) While the interleague crosstown classic where the Cubs and Sox play each other gets more attention, the Red Line double-header gives you two games and four teams a day, a nice little perk of life in Chicago.

This year, for example, the THT gang got to see both Chicago squads lose in unusually cool weather on Friday, June 7. Last year we went during warmer August weather on a Saturday.

Chicago has long had two baseball teams, of course. And while the schedule is set up to assure that they are almost never home at the same time, there are typically a few times in the year when both are in town at the same time. Often it’s impossible to see them both at the same time. They might both be playing day games or night games, for instance.

This year’s THT shindig got me wondering about the history of these games. How often has their been a day game on one side of town and a night game on the other? What are its highlights? How often has there been a double-header involved? Has Chicago ever hosted a pair of double-headers in one day?

Let’s look up these questions. Before we look at a true Red Line double-header—day game on one side, night game on the other—we first have to look at how often both teams played in Chicago on the same day.

The early years: an initial eruption


From 1901 to 2012, there have been 406 occasions where both Sox and Cubs played at home on the same day. They were never so likely to do as in those very first few seasons. In 1901, the Cubs and Sox played at home on the same day 24 times. From July 12 to Aug. 4 alone they did it 13 times. In 1902, they did it 16 more times&mdash. That's 40 times in two years, a tenth of the times they’ve ever done it.

There is a simple explanation for this. Back then, the AL was the upstart league trying to prove itself. The NL was its rival, not yet its partner. The Sox had the better team—they won the first AL pennant in 1901—so they played in Chicago up against the Cubs frequently.

In the 1902-03 offseason, however, the two leagues came to a truce, agreeing to work together instead of fighting one another. Not so coincidentally, the Cubs and Sox hosted games on the same days just 12 times in 1903 and then nine times in 1904. They still had joint home game dates about 7-10 times a year, but nothing like the 1901-02 explosion.

Decline of mutual home games


Even this wouldn’t last, however. In 1912, the Cubs and Sox had nine mutual home games, for a total of 124 through 12 seasons. It would be a long time before they had as many as nine days like this again. In 1913, they set a new low with just six dates where they both played at home. In 1914, it fell further, to three days. That became common.

What’s more, the nature of the double home date changed. It used to be that the two clubs would host entire series opposite each other. Now, it was more like a one-day affair. The last day of a Cubs home stand would be the opening game of a Sox home stand, or vice versa.

And even those games became increasingly sparse. In the 1910s, there were 46 times both Cubs and White Sox played at home on the same day, but in the 1920s it happened just 24 times. Only once in the 1920s was there back-to-back days with each team at home: the last two days of the 1925 season. Conversely, the 1923 season became the first one without a single day where both squads played at home.

The dormant years


And then it stopped. Completely. On Sept. 3, 1933, the Cubs lost to the Cardinals, 3-1, while the Indians trampled the Sox, 14-3— and then there were no more mutual home game dates for a long, long time. Not for the rest of the 1930s and not for the entire 1940s. Not until July 1, 1958, did it ever happen again. What the heck happened? Why did it stop entirely?

Well, a few ideas can be offered. First, these games clearly had become rarer and rarer for quite some time. Ending these games was less a break with the past than it was the continuation of an ongoing trend.

Second, let’s look at the timing. 1933 was the bottom of the Great Depression. Teams were desperate for cash as fewer fans wanted to waste their dwindling income at the ballpark. The Cubs were one of the best teams of this period, and despite that saw their attendance drop by almost two-thirds from 1929-33. Heck, after winning the 1932 NL pennant, they lost 400,000 fans in 1933. That isn’t normally how it plays out.

As bleak as it was for the Cubs, they still easily outdrew the Sox, who had two years under a quarter-million fans from 1932 to '34. With turnstile clicks down so badly, the teams didn’t want anything to happen to reduce the number of fans coming in. Thus, the days of mutual home games came to an end.

There’s one other factor to be noted: the rise of the double-header. I wrote about this a few years ago at THT, and the short version is that the double-header really entered its golden age during the Depression. Apparently, teams sought two-for-one deals as a way to bring more fans out to the park.

As double-headers became more frequent, it became far less likely that both Chicago teams would host games on the same day. After all, more double-headers means more off days. It also means clubs are more likely to schedule rainouts on days where there is already a game than on a free day (when the other squad might be in town).

So the teams never played in Chicago on the same day.

The aborted return


Finally, the pattern came to an end in July of 1958. Why go back to the old ways? Again, it’s hard to say exactly. I will note that if the golden age of double-headers began with the Great Depression, their long, slow phase-out began in the late 1950s. So, with fewer off days and more one-game days, a mutual home-game date became more likely. Besides, the Great Depression was long since a memory.

At any rate, these double home-game dates were pretty rare. It happened once in 1958, once in 1959, and twice in both 1960 and 1961. It picked up a little after that, and in July, 1962, baseball schedule-makers did something long forgotten in Chicago. From July 12-14, 1962, for the first time in about 40 years, both the White Sox and Cubs hosted a series at the same time. It wasn’t just a one-off date, it was a full series.

Alas, rather than being the harbinger of a new era, schedules for Chicago teams quickly reverted to the 1933-58 era. From 1964-74, there were only seven days both teams played at home at the same time, including five straight years where it never happened from 1964 to '68.

Red Line double-headers: 1970s onward


In the mid-1970s, the comeback began and essentially never has gone away. Only twice in the last 42 seasons has Chicago been deprived of at least one time a year when both teams played at home on the same daet: 1982 and 2010.

It’s actually picked up over time. There were just 20 of these games in the 1970s, 46 in the 1980s, 70 in the 1990s, before dipping a bit to 62 in the 2000s. It peaked with 14 such days in 1999, the most in any season since 1902. From 1958 to2012, there have been 224 days both teams have been in town at the same time.

Here is how these days break down by decade: 
Decade	Both
1900s	105
1910s	 46
1920s	 24
1930s	  7
1940s	  0
1950s	  2
1960s	 14
1970s	 20
1980s	 46
1990s	 70
2000s	 62
2010-12	 10
All this brings up another question: why don't the Cubs and White Sox push back against the schedule-makers on this, if that’s probably what happened way back when?

There’s a similar underlying trend in all this: attendance. Back in the day, the Chicago teams wanted to end these overlapping days due to attendance fears, but that really isn’t as big an issue any more. The new era of two home games in one day began in the mid-1970s. That’s also when attendance began to pick up all across baseball. It was stuck around 15,000 a game for 20-25 years across the big leagues but began a rise in the mid-1970s.

This was when you had the Baby Boomers coming of age with more income, and there was an overall national shift to spending more money on entertainment. The same years baseball’s attendance went up, Jaws and Star Wars shattered box office records. (Previously, the biggest grossing flick was Gone with the Wind, way back in 1939.) The Super Bowl became a national secular holiday. Rock ’n roll, just a decade removed from when the Beatles were the only band that could play stadiums, entered the era of arena rock.

Look back at Chicago for a second. Prior to the 1970s, the combined attendance for the Cubs and Sox had never been more than 2,454,230 (a figure that happened in 1960). That mark was bested each year from 1971 to 1973. In fact, from 1977 onward, there has been just one full season in Chicago history where the Cubs and Sox haven’t topped their 1960 total. The old ceiling is below the modern-day floor.

Ultimately, playing on the same day doesn’t hurt the clubs, so it keeps on happening.

Red Line double-header: day game and night game


The above tells us when the Sox and Cubs are in town the same day. But for a true Red Line double-header, you need to have sufficiently staggered start times. What you really need are a day game at one end of town and a night game at the other.

Neither park had lights until the Great Depression. In fact, no baseball park did. Night baseball came to the South Side in 1939 and to the North Side nearly a half-century later, in 1988.

The first true Red Line double-header came on Friday Sept. 18, 1959. That was a strange time to do it. The Sox were on the verge of clinching their first pennant in 40 years while the Cubs were playing out the string in another dismal season. Just 971 showed up for the weekday afternoon game at Wrigley Field while 37,352 flooded into Comiskey Park that night. Given how absurdly one-sided attendance was that day, it’s amazing the Cubs didn’t protest loud enough to prevent schedule-makers from letting this happen again.

From 1959 to 2012, there have been 164 Red Line double-header days with a day game on one side off town and a night game on the other. That’s three-fourths of the times both teams have been at home on the same day. Here’s the list from above, but with the chart now also showing how many Red Line double-headers there have been per decade.
Decade	Both	Red
1900s	105	 0
1910s	 46	 0
1920s	 24	 0
1930s	  7	 0
1940s	  0	 0
1950s	  2	 1
1960s	 14	13
1970s	 20	18
1980s	 46	43
1990s	 70	46
2000s	 62	35
2010-12	 10	 8
You can see the impact of night games at Wrigley. Even since that’s happened, there are more occasions when you can’t see both teams play, even if they’re both at home on the same day. It makes sense if you think about it.

Obviously, they’ve almost all been Cub day games and White Sox night games, but not always. The first reverse Red Line double-header—South Side day game and North Side nightcap—came on June 7, 1990. They’ve happened sporadically since then, 11 times in all. Even now, 25 years after Wrigley got its lights, the Cubs still play far more day games than any other team.

There is plenty more to look at with these Red Line doubleheaders, but this column has gone on long enough. We’ll pick it up again later.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> Chris Jaffe 2013-06-17T07:01:07+00:00 The daily grind: 6-14-13 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-6-14-13/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-6-14-13/#When:10:08:15 The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

I will be out for the next two weeks on honeymoon. I'm going to try to issue posts next week, but will be completely unavailable for the following week. Undoubtedly, some of you won't read this and will be wondering why I've left you over the next two weeks.

Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): You have some very good options sitting on the wire today. Top of the pile is Rick Porcello, who has upped his whiff and strikeout rates while maintaining the quality of his other peripherals. He faces the Twins.

Shaun Marcum is my number two pick for the day. He's displaying strong command and control in recent outings. He's opposed by Edwin Jackson, who is pick number three for me today. Expect lots of strikeouts, a few more walks than I'd like, and tons of ground balls.

Jake Westbrook is a good option to chase a win with the Cardinals taking on the Marlins. Just don't expect strikeouts.

Pitcher (bum): Every day has exploitable pitchers. Today, Mark Buerhle faces Justin Grimm at Arlington in what could end up being a bit of a laser light show. I really do like Grimm but I swear all of his match-ups are terrible.

Scott Diamond has a tough assignment against the Tigers.

Hitter (power): I'm calling today's class of sluggers retro chic for no reason at all. Try one or all of Garrett Jones, Lucas Duda, Dayan Viciedo or Cody Ross.

Hitter (speed): For speed, you have Drew Stubbs, Craig Gentry, and Will Venable all holding the platoon advantage.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): Owners have been understandably slow to jump on the John Lackey train. He's just 38 percent owned. His match-up with the Orioles is a bit of a challenge, but I consider him an every start guy at the moment.

I feel like I've been waiting to say Tyler Chatwood for weeks and now I'm uncertain. He had experienced slight peripheral improvements prior to his minor injury, but I'm worried those might go away.

A.J. Griffin is 52 percent owned and will face the Mariners. The drawback is that he'll face Felix Hernandez.

Pitcher (bum): The Pirates are expected to use Brandon Cumpton in place of A.J. Burnett, but that's not set in stone. I don't actually know a single thing about Cumpton besides that his FanGraphs page is unimpressive.

Chad Gaudin is pitching well out of the Giants rotation, but I have to believe it's all smoke and mirrors.

Josh Lindblom is not pitching well, while providing innings to the Rangers. Someone has to do the yeoman's work.

Clayton Richard has had a tough season and he's opposed by Wade Miley who has been little better.

Hitter (power): Hang onto Ross for the Richard match-up.

Give Chris Carter a spin against John Danks.

Scott Hairston will face Jon Niese.

Hitter (speed): Chris Denorfia will start against Miley.

I have this feeling that Alex Cobb is going to over-regress in his next few outings. No reason why. Do yourself a favor and don't play my pure hunches, but you can still use Lorenzo Cain.

Noteworthy news


The Dodgers and MLB have settled on what the Dodgers own from their new, massive TV contract. Over the 25-year life of the deal, the Dodgers will keep $6 billion and MLB will receive between $2-2.5 billion for revenue sharing. I'd appreciate it if just one percent of that rounding error was dropped in my bank account.

Weather watch


The Tigers and Twins may see storms building throughout the game and the Cubs and Mets need to dodge a 30 percent chance for "few showers." I don't quite know how to interpret that. Is there a one-third chance that it kind of, sort of rains?

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> Brad Johnson 2013-06-14T10:08:09+00:00 Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 11, Vol. III http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-11-vol.-iii/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-11-vol.-iii/#When:06:53:15
Of course, that could unearth some unpleasant memories, since I’ve profiled several dozen players thus far in 2013. And for every success story, there are probably at least two or three losers, so this could get messy. To keep things brief, I’m going to look at the waiver wire posts I’ve submitted this year through the end of May and pick one player to check in on. (I figure we might as well give the June guys some more time to play ball before rendering judgment on their post-waiver wire performances.) Let’s just hope that hindsight has been gentle to my acts of faith in some of these guys.

WEEK 1: March 29

Patrick Corbin | Arizona Diamondbacks | SP
YTD at time of writing: n/a
Since: 86.2 IP / 2.28 ERA / 6.96 K/9 / 2.28 BB/9 with 9 wins

I began the season with a pretty good pick in Corbin, who had yet to be tapped as the team’s fifth starter. But the guy had a spotless spring and pitched decently in his rookie season last year, so I figured he would surpass Oliver’s modest expectations for him (4.13 ERA, 1.367 WHIP). Boy, was I wrong: Corbin has blown away just about everyone’s wildest dreams, going 9-0 with a decent strikeout rate and very little in the way of walks. Of course, he’s done so with a very high 81.2 percent strand rate, which, while not completely unsustainable, would certainly bump his ERA back up toward 3 were it to fall back to earth, and a 4.8 percent HR/FB rate that’s a far cry from last year, when he fed his gopher 14 times in a little over 100 innings. Still, my faith in Corbin was rewarded (to say the very, very least), so this recommendation was one that’s stood the test of time.

Verdict: One for one so far on my test.

WEEK 1: April 5

Collin Cowgill | New York Mets | OF
YTD at time of writing: 12 PA / .167 / .167 / .500 with 1 HR and 0 SB
Since: 40 PA / .154 / .175 / .231 with 1 HR and 0 SB

So if Corbin was a home run pick, Cowgill was a strikeout. Or a ground ball double play. Or a seppuku ritual. That’s because Cowgill, who hit a grand slam on Opening Day, has done diddly squat since, losing playing time in center field to Jordany Valdespin before being sent down when the Mets picked up Rick Ankiel. Cowgill, whose on-base abilities and stolen base potential made him someone to watch in my eyes, is now back up in the majors, but is clearly not worth much in any league. Granted, I was a bit hesitant in my advocacy, but he was clearly not worth picking up in NL-only leagues, revealing just how foolhardy my recommendation was.

Verdict: Wrong answer.

WEEK 2: April 10

Trevor Rosenthal | St. Louis Cardinals | RP
YTD at time of writing: 6 IP / 3.00 ERA / 12 K/9 / 1.5 BB/9 with 0 saves
Since: 26 IP / 1.38 ERA / 13.2 K/9 / 1.7 BB/9

Some guys, no matter how talented, are just not cut out for the ninth inning (hey there, Armando Benitez). That’s not to say Rosenthal, a legit fireballer, won’t return to the closer’s role later in his career, but I wasn’t buying the converted starter’s bid to replace Mitchell Boggs and his terrible start. Since I wrote about Rosenthal, Jason Motte has been lost for the year, and while I give myself some credit for at least mentioning Edward Mujica’s name, hindsight suggests I should have trusted the established reliever more to be a long-term save artist than Rosenthal.

Verdict: I’ll call this a split decision; I was bearish on Rosenthal, which was the right call, though I underestimated Mujica’s potential to blossom into a No. 1 relief pitcher.

WEEK 2: April 12

Nick Tepesch | Texas Rangers | SP
YTD at time of writing: 7.1 IP / 1.23 ERA / 6.1 K/9 / 3.7 BB/9
Since: 59.2 IP / 4.68 ERA / 6.8 K/9 / 2.1 BB/9 with two wins

Ah, April. How quaint such sentences look just two months later:

“Must-add” labels shouldn’t be given out frivolously, and mixed league owners might benefit from waiting an extra start or two from the 24-year-old Tepesch before kicking someone off the island.


Well, if you waited, you probably did benefit, since Tepesch has been mediocre thus far in 2013. Although I correctly took note of his meh strikeout ability and stingy ways when it came to free passes, I thought a pitcher who could hold his own would benefit from a strong supporting cast in Texas. But despite a decent 1.28 WHIP, a 2-6 record and underwhelming ERA make Tepesch no more than pitching depth in AL-only leagues.

Verdict: I didn’t go overboard in recommending him, but Tepesch has certainly disappointed.

WEEK 3: April 15

Jake Westbrook | St. Louis Cardinals | SP
YTD at time of writing: 15.2 IP / 0.00 ERA / 2.3 K/9 / 5.7 BB/9 with 1 win
Since: 23.1 IP / 2.70 ERA / 5.8 K/9 / 3.1 BB/9 with 1 win

Here’s a fun sentence that serves as a reminder of why this is such an unforgiving business:

Westbrook, 35, has largely shed the injury history that gutted a good portion of his career, as he’s made at least 28 starts in each of the past three seasons.

Yep, that was before Westbrook landed on the DL with an elbow problem that’s explained why he’s been MIA since early May. Like Tepesch, I qualified my endorsement of Westbrook by playing down his long-term expectations, but as with the rookie right-hander, I overcompensated on his value by assuming the Cardinals would elevate his fantasy value (and, of course, I ignored his injury risk).

Verdict: No, I’m not a doctor nor a clairvoyant, but I should have assigned more risk to Westbrook.

WEEK 4: April 22

Jose Quintana | Chicago White Sox | SP
YTD at time of writing: 17.2 IP / 2.55 ERA / 8.7 K/9 / 2 BB/9 with 1 win
Since: 59.1 IP / 4.25 ERA / 5.8 K/9 / 2.7 BB/9 with two wins

Let’s cut right to the chase here: Quintana, who I somewhat strongly recommended as an across-the-board pickup in April, simply forgot how to strike out people, despite an increase in fastball velocity. The walk rate, which has been key to his success in the minors and in his solid debut last year, has remained steady, but he’s basically turned into a right-handed Tepesch: good WHIP, good walk rate, mediocre everything else. Right now, he’s a fringe mixed-league starter.

Verdict: I don’t regret recommending him, but the results have clearly not been there.

WEEK 4: April 26

Andrew Cashner | San Diego Padres | SP
YTD at time of writing: 13.1 IP / 4.05 ERA / 9.5 K/9 / 4.7 BB/9
Since: 58.1 IP / 3.39 ERA / 5.7 K/9 / 2 BB/9 with 5 wins

I strongly endorsed Cashner when it became clear that he’d move to the starting rotation in late April, and to be honest, I’d say he’s done pretty well, as he’s yet to allow more than four earned runs in a start since. The big question, of course, is where the strikeouts have gone: FanGraphs’ Chris Cwik (and others) have noticed a drop in velocity on his hard slider, which could be a byproduct of him being stretched out in the rotation. Regardless, he’s not the strikeout machine I’d hoped for, so while he’s mostly lived up to my expectations as a great upside guy, he’s yet to fully deliver on his strong potential.

Verdict: Cashner has justified my faith up to this point, but we will need to see those strikeouts return eventually.

WEEK 5: May 1

Brian Dozier | Minnesota Twins | 2B / SS
YTD at time of writing: YTD: 79 PA / .243 / .295 / .314 with 0 HR and 1 SB
Since: 119 PA / .218 / .271 / .327 with 3 HR and 5 SB

A .308 average in June has helped resuscitate Dozier’s fantasy value to some degree, though he clearly hasn’t blossomed as a dependable middle infield option despite his contact-heavy ways. The five steals, however, is an encouraging sign, and as the season goes on, Dozier might be worth keeping an eye on.

Verdict: I didn’t have the highest hopes for Dozier, but his fantasy value has been zilch since I wrote about him.

WEEK 6: May 6

Scott Kazmir | Cleveland Indians | SP
YTD at time of writing: 14.1 IP / 6.28 ERA / 9.4 K/9 / 3.8 BB/9 with 1 win
Since: 38 IP / 4.97 ERA / 9 K/9 / 3 BB/9 with 2 wins

What can I say? I remember Kazmir’s days as an up-and-coming super prospect in the Mets organization, and wanted to believe that a return to his 2008 velocity would lead to strikeouts. It has, actually, and he’s been able to maintain his strikeout-per-inning rate while keeping the walks in check. Trouble is, he’s been wildly inconsistent in his appearances, and has allowed four earned runs or more in four of his seven appearances since he graced the waiver wire. That doesn’t mean we should write him off completely, but it’s hard to trust a guy who provides such volatile results week-to-week.

Verdict: I remain a fan of Kazmir’s, but he’s not really a mixed-league option right now.

WEEK 6: May 10

Kelly Johnson | Tampa Bay Rays | 2B
YTD at time of writing: 105 PA / .283 / .362 / .489 with 5 HR and 4 SB
Since: 103 PA / .234 / .282 / .457 with 5 HR and 2 SB

So far, we’ve mostly touched upon guys whose disappointment came in the way of my lofty expectations and their inability to fulfill them. Well, in the case of Johnson, I was waiting for him to come back to the pack a bit, thanks to what was a generous BABIP and HR/FB rate. The average certainly has—sorry, but a .300 hitter who’s not producing line drives at even a 15 percent clip are two things that don’t go together—but the power remains, making Johnson a great waiver wire pickup considering his low value. I’m not ready to sign off on him returning to his excellent 2010 level, but he’s clearly doing better than I gave him credit for a month ago—even if I wonder if many value him too highly.

Verdict: Although the average has dipped, the slugging percentage reminds us that Johnson has been solid this year.

WEEK 7: May 15

Jeff Locke | Pittsburgh Pirates | SP
YTD at the time of writing: 45.2 IP / 3.15 ERA / 5.5 K/9 / 3.9 BB/9 with 3 wins
Since: 29.2 IP / 1.21 ERA / 8.2 K/9 / 4.6 BB/9 with 2 wins

I poured cold water on Locke last month, dismissing his strand rate, balls in play average and bad FIP/ERA splits. Not much has changed—frankly, if anything, his peripherals have gotten worse—and since we’re talking about a guy who offers barely acceptable strikeouts and a pedestrian walk rate, I’m still staying away in mixed leagues, even if Locke, who’s now 5-1, continues to defy my nay-saying.

Verdict: Locke has yet to prove my doubts, but I’m not buying his production.

WEEK 8: May 20

David Phelps | New York Yankees | SP
YTD at time of writing: 42.1 IP / 3.83 ERA / 9.8 K/9 / 3.8 BB/9 with 2 wins
Since: 20 IP / 4.05 ERA / 7.7 K/9 / 4 BB/9 with 2 wins

This isn’t a hard one, since Phelps was solid dating back to last year and has impressed thus far in 2013. Michael Pineda still isn’t back from his shoulder injury, Ivan Nova is in Triple-A and Phelps has pitched well all season, though he got bombed by the Mets in a first-inning rout not too long after I sang his praises last month. Still, I felt Phelps could contribute in standard mixed leagues, a sentiment on which I’m standing pat.

Verdict: Not the most difficult of endorsements, but Phelps has continued to roll.

WEEK 8: May 24

Rick Porcello | Detroit Tigers | SP
YTD at time of writing: 43 IP / 6.28 ERA / 6 K/9 / 1.9 BB/9 with 2 wins
Since: 20 IP / 1.80 ERA / 11.3 K/9 / 1.8 BB/9 with 1 win

I’m happy to end this column with Porcello, one of the guys of whom I’m most proud this season. Since rediscovering his curveball and ditching his slider, Porcello, a former top prospect, has suddenly turned into a strikeout machine, posting solid strikeout numbers since the beginning of May. It will take some more time before he grows into a must-start hurler across the board, but my faith in Porcello has been rewarded, as he’s virtually stopped walking people altogether and kept his team in the game more often than not. I’m still on board with Porcello turning into one of the great success stories of 2013, and his recent appearances have only encouraged such optimism.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> Karl de Vries 2013-06-14T06:53:46+00:00