http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-23T08:50:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-23-13/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-23-13/#When:10:18:15 The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

A reminder: The Grind will be going on a one week holiday starting tomorrow.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Kevin Gausman's ownership has more than doubled from 14 to 32 percent. He will face the Blue Jays in his debut.

Edwin Jackson has pitched better than his numbers and should be relatively safe to start against most teams.

Zach McAllister gets the nod only because of the thin pool of options today. Usually I would avoid starts against the Red Sox.

Pitcher (bum): For years, Joe Blanton has underperformed strong peripherals. And now his peripherals have gotten worse and he's still underperforming them. Stack Royals.

Rick Porcello is also underperforming his peripherals, which suggest he's the same 4.50 ERA pitcher he's always been. Remember when he was a monster prospect with swing and miss stuff?

Hitter (power): Nate Schierholtz, Oswaldo Arcia, and Travis Snider are a few names who could swat a long ball today.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain and Aaron Hicks may be your best bets to pick up a stray steal.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Samuel Deduno is an unusual Twins prospect in that he strikes out a lot of batters and walks more than his share. You may not want to get mixed up in this roller coaster, and especially not against the Tigers, but deep league owners should give him some thought.

John Lackey is looking like vintage John Lackey. His strikeout rate looks a bit high while his walk rate may be a shade low. He's currently sporting a low 3's ERA that his peripherals support, but I expect that to be closer to 3.90 over the remainder of the season.

I don't know what to make of Marco Estrada. He has a strong strikeout rate, respectable walk rate and solid ground ball rate, and yet he keeps turning in disaster pieces. I'm entertaining the possibility that we have a new Ricky Nolasco on our hands (or Javier Vazquez is you prefer), but I'm also sticking with him.

Pitcher (bum): Freddy Garcia is having trouble getting pitches past hitters. Right now, he's showing non-terrible numbers thanks to a .179 BABIP against. The Blue Jays are a threat to hit some balls out of play.

The Braves draw buffet manager Jeremy Hefner for tomorrow's feast.

Luis Mendoza: Redefining Mendoza. Actually, he's pitched solidly after some early season combustion. His skill set remains unimpressive and exploitable by most teams.

Apparently, Joe Saunders kills it at Safeco (9-0 with 1.72 ERA), but gets killed everywhere else. I have to bet on the Rangers lineup over Saunders, regardless of locale.

Hitter (power): Let's watch Juan Francisco take some big hacks.

Travis Hafner will see Roberto Hernandez. On the other side of that match-up. Kelly Johnson is showing a lot of value as a platoon option at second base.

Righty Chris Carter will face lefty Tommy Milone.

Cody Ross has been quiet thus far. He's not striking out or hitting for power. He'll face a lefty tomorrow - Eric Stultz.

Hitter (speed): Cain will gain the platoon advantage tomorrow against Jason Vargas.

Craig Gentry should start against Saunders.

Noteworthy news

I learned yesterday that Brian Urlacher was retiring. Today, I learned that he is calling quits on his stealth MLB career. Read the headline, and if it makes sense, it's because they fixed it.

Weather watch

Every game except the Angels and Royals is at risk to see thunderstorms and/or rain. Of course, the Orioles and Blue Jays will be playing in a dome, so it doesn't matter if it rains in Toronto, but the other three games will likely be affected.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Brad Johnson 2013-05-23T10:18:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-22-13/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-22-13/#When:10:37:15 The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Yesterday, some commenters expressed an interest in increasing the ownership threshold to 70 percent for starting pitchers. Is there wider interest in seeing that change? Let's have an informal poll/discussion in today's comments.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Francisco Liriano is the top option available today. He is opposed by the Cubs.

Paul Maholm would fit here if I increased the ownership threshold. He will face the Twins.

Jorge de la Rosa has put together some solid numbers this season, but a low strike out rate is mildly concerning.

Pitcher (bum): The Braves offense against Vance Worley should help out Maholm.

The Tigers will face Ubaldo Jimenez. He is coming off a couple of strong outings, but it's hard to weight a couple of good games over a couple of terrible seasons.

I said it yesterday and I'll say it again: Jason Hammel turned back into a pumpkin. Which puts him on the All-Style team since he now matches the Orioles colors.

Today's marquee match-up is Tyler Lyons versus Burch Smith, a.k.a. two guys whom very few people know anything about.

Hitter (power): Travis Hafner has cooled down, but Hammel could perk him back up.

Scott Hairston could run into a Liriano mistake. He's known to throw his share of mistakes.

Cody Ross will face de la Rosa.

Hitter (speed):
Chris Denorfia gains the platoon advantage against Lyons.

Lorenzo Cain will see Jordan Lyles.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Kevin Gausman will get his first major league start tomorrow against the Blue Jays. His ownership rate is already up to 14 percent, so act fast.

Owners are quitting on Edwin Jackson's poor ERA, but his FIP/xFIP are right around the expected 3.80 mark. The Pirates aren't a walk in the park these days, but he seems to be a pitcher worth owning in way more than 30 percent of leagues.

Zach McAllister has a tough match-up against the Red Sox. He's up to 31 percent owned.

Pitcher (bum):
Joe Blanton is getting smacked around like a ... I think I'll opt not to finish that joke.

I'm actively rooting against Rick Porcello because I want Drew Smyly to get an opportunity. Porcello's peripherals suggest he'll be his usual self going forward.

Hitter (power): Nate Schierholtz will face Jeanmar Gomez.

Travis Snider will see Jackson.

Oswaldo Arcia may enjoy Porcello.

Hitter (speed):
Hang onto Cain.

Aaron Hicks is still struggling mightily, but he's a stretch option for tomorrow's thin slate.

Noteworthy news

I'm not sure why, but Jose Bautista received a rare and much-coveted lifetime pass. He and a guest can attend any MLB game free for life.

Mike Trout hit for the cycle yesterday.

Chris Perez quit Twitter. Surprisingly, people are dicks on the internet. And I'm just being generous by adding that "on the internet" qualifier.

Weather watch

The Midwest has some impending storms, which could affect the Pirates, Cubs, White Sox, Red Sox, Tigers, and Indians.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Brad Johnson 2013-05-22T10:37:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-21-13/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-21-13/#When:09:45:15 The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Yesterday's pitchers didn't work out well. Kazmir bombed and Odorizzi scuffled a bit. I hope today can be better.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Matt Garza's ownership is up a whopping two points to 61 percent. I expected to see a huge jump yesterday, but I think a lot of fans are still unaware of his return.

Jose Fernandez is the only other card up my sleeve for today. He jumped three ownership points to 51 percent. Sorry I don't have somebody more widely available to point at today.

If you absolutely must use somebody, Wade Davis against the Astros seems like the best play.

Pitcher (bum): Is it me, or are there an unusual number of exploitable pitchers this season? I don't recall leaving guys off this portion of the list on a daily basis last year.

I'll limit myself to four picks: Aaron Harang against the Angels, Edinson Volquez versus the Cardinals, Tyler Cloyd against the Marlins (yes I'm picking the Marlins offense) and Mike Pelfrey against the Braves.

Hitter (power): It's Juan Francisco's turn in the platoon.

David Murphy draws Dan Straily, who appears a bit off his game.

Jonny Gomes faces Jose Quintana.

To hedge my bets, Carlos Pena could launch a long ball against Davis.

Hitter (speed):
Kelly Johnson will see ancient journeyman Ramon Ortiz.

Gerardo Parra will face Jhoulys Chacin.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start):
Jorge de la Rosa is erratic, which makes him rather maddening to use. His strike out rate is surprisingly small this season, which eats into his value.

Speaking of maddening pitchers, Francisco Liriano is owned in only 37 percent of leagues and will face the Cubs. The only thing we can tell about him right now is that he's generating whiffs.

Pitcher (bum):
The Braves offense remains a strong pick against Vance Worley.

I don't believe in Ubaldo Jimenez's hot streak and generally speaking, I don't believe in starting pitchers against the Tigers anyway.

Jason Hammel turned pumpkin.

Tyler Lyons versus Burch Smith sounds like a lot of runs.

Hitter (power): Try Travis Hafner against Hammel.

Scott Hairston could be worth employing against Liriano.

You can also try Cody Ross against de la Rosa.

Hitter (speed): Chris Denorfia should start against Lyons.

Lorenzo Cain should like facing Jordan Lyles.

Weather watch

There are scattered storms expected throughout baseball today. The Cubs, Pirates, Mets, Reds, Tigers, Indians, Athletics, and Rangers could be affected. The other storm locations have domes.

Column notes

I will be out from Friday, May 24 through the end of next week.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Brad Johnson 2013-05-21T09:45:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-20-13/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-20-13/#When:09:35:15 The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Scott Kazmir is currently posting some of the best peripherals of his career. The only blemish is an extremely elevated HR/FB ratio: 21.2 percent of fly balls have left the yard.

Jake Odorizzi will make his first start as a Ray today. He was posting solid numbers in Triple-A, including a strikeout rate above nine per nine innings and a walk rate around three per nine. He may be in the rotation for only a few starts while David Price is out.

In terms of expectations, Odorizzi will probably provide top waiver quality output—something like eight K/9, four BB/9, a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His ownership could shoot up quickly since he's a prospect.

I saw Jeremy Guthrie was facing the Astros today and then I saw he's owned in 61 percent of leagues. I hope about 40 of that 61 percent picked him up as a stream starter, but I know better. Tsk tsk.

Pitcher (bum): There are a couple epic exploits in play for today.

Zach Duke versus Ryan Vogelsong promises fireworks aplenty.

Josh Lindblomt—a relievert—is starting against the A's today.

Alex Sanabia tends to bend but not break. He's a good bet to allow four runs on five innings.

Shaun Marcum is coming off his best outing and could be in the process of turning the corner. I'm going to continue betting against him for the time being.

The Yankees should enjoy a reunion with Freddy Garcia.

Hitter (power): Travis Hafner has dropped off his epic pace, but you can try him out against Garcia.

Domonic Brown is a solid play against Sanabia.

Play the Seth Smith and Brandon Moss train today, although they'll face a mix of righties and lefties.

Hitter (speed):
Eric Young Jr. will start against lefty Patrick Corbin. You may also want to try Gerardo Parra against Jon Garland.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Matt Garza is 59 percent owned, but in the leagues where he is not owned, this may be your one shot to scoop him up.

Jose Fernandez barely qualifies for a recommendation at 48 percent owned. He's done well against the Phillies in two outings and they may be without Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz.

Pitcher (bum):
Go ahead and stack Angels against Aaron Harang.

The Cardinals will face erratic righty Edinson Volquez.

Tyler Cloyd has been roughed up by Triple-A lineups worse than the Marlins all season. For daily league owners, this might be a rare opportunity to lean on the Marlins offense for cheap points.

Mike Pelfrey's looking pretty ugly this year. The Braves aren't likely to go hungry tomorrow.

Hitter (power):
Juan Francisco will bring his hard swing against Pelfrey.

Dan Straily has struggled with command, making him a solid match-up for David Murphy.

Jonny Gomes will get to face another non-elite lefty in Jose Quintana.

Did you know that "the Royals are 5-0 when Wade Davis allows four runs or fewer but 0-3 when he does not." Thanks MLB.com. Now try Carlos Pena against him.

Hitter (speed):
Kelly Johnson has a good match-up against Ramon Ortiz.

You can hang onto Parra for his start against Jhoulys Chacin.

Noteworthy news

Johnny Cueto is back in action today.

Jurickson Profar has been recalled and will start at second base while Ian Kinsler recovers from bruised ribs. It will likely be a short stint on the disabled list, so don't cut a key contributor for Profar. Yahoo surprisingly gave him only UTIL eligibility.

Garza will make his first start of the season tomorrow.

Weather watch

Games in Baltimore and Chicago may see isolated storms today, but the weather seems manageable otherwise.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Brad Johnson 2013-05-20T09:35:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-17-13/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-17-13/#When:09:41:15 The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Jeanmar Gomez is the best available starter today, which is not a good thing.

Pitcher (bum): However, there are plenty of bad starters to sift through.

Jordan Lyles, Rick Porcello, Vance Worley, and Burch Smith all look particularly exploitable. In addition to those names, Brandon Maurer is opposed by Ubaldo Jimenez in a probable slugfest.

Hitter (power): Lucas Duda has a nice match-up against Edwin Jackson.

Garrett Jones will see Lyles while Daniel Nava will face Worley.

The Giants seem to directing some frustration at Brandon Belt despite solid performance. I expect Brett Pill to see starts against lefties, although I suppose we'll find out tonight.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain has a solid match-up against Jarrod Parker.

Chris Denorfia should start against Gio Gonzalez.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): I would usually recommend Hector Santiago, Marco Estrada and Justin Grimm, but they face the Angels, Cardinals, and Tigers respectively. So I'm avoiding them.

I mention them because I can't point at anybody else without it being a pure gamble. If you want that gamble pick anyway, it's Juan Nicasio against the Giants. But don't credit/blame me for the results.

Pitcher (bum): Joe Blanton has looked lost at times this season. The White Sox aren't a difficult match-up, but they're good enough to cause trouble.

Erik Bedard has yet to settle in this season. He's been unusually prone to walks and home runs—a bad combination.

Chris Capuano has a tough assignment against the Braves.

The Orioles are throwing the always talented TBA.

Hitter (power): Ervin Santana gives up some home runs, which makes it a good day for Seth Smith and Brandon Moss.

Brandon Belt ought to be owned more frequently than 33 percent. A game against Nicasio is likely to help his numbers.

Chris Johnson should like batting against Capuano.

Jonny Gomes finally sees a mid-tier lefty - Scott Diamond

Hitter (speed): Eric Young Jr. or Charlie Blackmon against Tim Lincecum might produce a steal or two.

Noteworthy news

Word on the street is that expanded replay could hit the shelves as early as 2014. The game will be poorer for it. You can't tell, but that was biting sarcasm.

Weather watch

Minnesota, Atlanta, and Chicago have possible thunderstorms in the forecast.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Brad Johnson 2013-05-17T09:41:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-16-13/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-16-13/#When:09:40:15 The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Today is not a good day to stream. If you must, Jose Quintana, Jerome Williams, Francisco Liriano and Felix Doubront look like the best options.

Pitcher (bum): Hiram Burgos is probably exploitable on a good day and he's had a long rest. Most pitchers don't like that.

Aaron Harang still seems like he's a few starts from putting it all together.

Edinson Volquez will face a depleted Nationals lineup. It sounds like Harper could miss another game.

Hitter (power): Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay face Harang.

Garrett Jones draws Burgos.

Hitter (speed): Eric Young Jr. continues to be an everyday option for steals. I have a suspicion he may be coming off the bench tonight in favor of Charlie Blackmon.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Jeanmar Gomez will face the Astros, who have turned into a feast or famine unit. They starve a lot more frequently than they feast, but Gomez is still hard to justify using.

Pitcher (bum): Jordan Lyles seems to be having trouble adjusting to life in the major leagues.

Brandon Maurer versus Ubaldo Jimenez could produce many runs. The same goes for Jeremy Hellickson versus Jason Hammel.

The Rangers will aim to exploit Rick Porcello. Free Drew Smyly.

There are other exploitable pitchers, but I'll draw the line at Vance Worley against the Red Sox.

Hitter (power): Lucas Duda will face Edwin Jackson, whose 6.02 ERA is balanced by a 3.50 FIP.

Continue using Jones.

Daniel Nava is a good play against Worley.

Brett Pill may start against Jorge de la Rosa in place of Brandon Belt.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain goes against Jarrod Parker.

Chris Denorfia will see Gio Gonzalez.

Noteworthy news

Francisco Rodriguez is expected to join the Brewers soon. Don't expect him to take over the closer's gig immediately. In fact, I wouldn't speculate on him unless you're in desperate need of saves or don't have any other use for the roster spot.

Yasmani Grandal is starting his minor league assignment and is expected to return to the Padres May 28. He will likely platoon with Nick Hundley until he can prove himself.

Weather watch

The Mets and Cardinals might see thunderstorms, but otherwise the coast is clear.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Brad Johnson 2013-05-16T09:40:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-15-13/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-15-13/#When:09:47:15 The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Yesterday was a bit of a disasterpiece. I hope few of you used Scott Kazmir or John Lackey (I used both). There's still reason to be cautiously optimistic about both guys, but I would emphasize the caution part more going forward.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Phil Hughes is up to 52 percent owned and remains the best streaming option for the day. He will face the Mariners.

Mike Leake is a decent fallback due to his match-up with the Marlins.

Pitcher (bum): The Phillies got to lefty Scott Kazmir last night, and I predict they'll hit well against Corey Kluber too.

The only thing keeping Mike Pelfrey from being an everyday mention in the exploit column is the five-day rotation.

Coming off four bad outings to start the season, Shaun Marcum has a tough assignment against the Cardinals.

Wade Davis versus Barry Enright sounds like a high-scoring affair.

Hitter (power): Colby Rasmus and Adam Lind may benefit from facing Ryan Vogelsong.

Domonic Brown homered yesterday and has a friendlier match-up tonight.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain has spent some time circling the waivers in my leagues. He has a nice combination of speed and power. He'll also face Kluber today.

Nate Schierholtz faces Jon Garland.

Eric Young Jr. is starting and leading off on occasion. Use him with impunity.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Honestly, don't try to force it tomorrow. Nobody has a match-up where I can comfortable expect an ERA under 4.00. If you absolutely must use somebody, Jose Quintana, Jerome Williams, Francisco Liriano and Felix Doubront are the best dice throws.

Pitcher (bum): Hiram Burgos got skipped after blowing up against the Reds. The Pirates have a solid offense and will look to exploit any rust he shows.

Aaron Harang will likely struggle against the voodoo Yankees.

Edinson Volquez may be lucky enough to not face Bryce Harper or Jayson Werth, but the Nationals lineup will still be a challenge for him.

Hitter (power): If Harper is out another game, Tyler Moore will get the lovely Volquez match-up.

Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay should enjoy facing Harang.

Garrett Jones will see Burgos.

Hitter (speed): Keep on using Young.

Noteworthy news

Zack Greinke and Curtis Granderson return to the lineup.

Harper was held out yesterday, citing nausea (among other things). That's a bit worrying. The team docs said he did not have a concussion, but nausea is a symptom of a concussion. It bears watching.

Weather watch

There is currently a small risk of storms in St. Louis and Philadelphia, but otherwise it's another fine weather day.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Brad Johnson 2013-05-15T09:47:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-phillies-should-retool-but-not-reboot/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-phillies-should-retool-but-not-reboot/#When:07:08:15
The rapid reconstruction provides a blueprint for the struggling Phillies. Prior to the season, I noted that Roy Halladay was crucial to the Phillies' playoff chances. He's now out through at least mid-August with a partially torn rotator cuff. Without that essential lynch pin, a tepid 18-21 start is probably too much to overcome. Fans are talking about discarding all veterans, including productive ones on relatively cheap contracts like Jimmy Rollins, yet the farm system is fairly barren, with only a handful of names poised to contribute in the majors.

The Phillies probably need to do something very soon, but any plan that may succeed will be brazen, full of risk and hidden dangers. The goal is to emulate the Red Sox and field a relevant team as soon as 2014. There is nothing desirable about an Astros-style blowup and frankly that's probably a very bad idea in the Philadelphia market. The Phans are not known for their understanding nature.

Building blocks

The Phillies are far from flush with future stars, but they do have some building blocks.

Domonic Brown is showing more and more flashes of his above average potential. He's unlikely to set the world afire in 2013, but he's also shown continuous incremental improvement whenever healthy. The story of Carlos Gomez comes to mind. The Brewers' patience allowed them to develop a growing star at the major league level over the course of three seasons. The Phillies should emulate that strategy with Brown—ignoring impatient fans if necessary.

Ben Revere has struggled mightily in his short tenure as a Phillie, but I noted a few weeks ago that he's seeing some peculiar results. At the end of the day, Revere is a high quality complementary player, but Juan Pierre was an important complimentary component to the Marlins World Series victory in 2003.

Cole Hamels is in his age 29 season and under contract through 2018 with a club option for '19. The Phillies would likely need a huge return—think Jurickson Profar or Oscar Taveras - to even consider trading him.

Two pitchers who should slot effectively into the rotation are nearing the majors. Lefty Jesse Biddle, widely considered the best prospect in the system, has toyed with the opposition in five out of six starts in Double-A. He still needs to improve his command and control and is ideally a mid-2014 call-up. Adam Morgan will likely get the call sometime in 2013. He's an effective lefty with a plus change-up and mid-rotation profile. Both pitchers could contribute as soon as 2014 and be reliable, cheap workhorses by 2016. Don't forget TINSTAAPP.

Phillippe Aumont and Justin De Fratus both have the makings of a relief ace. That won't stop the organization from using them to acquire better talent, but they could help form a very potent bullpen if that opportunity doesn't coalesce.

Maikel Franco is arguably the top position prospect in the system (Roman Quinn being the other candidate). He's having an excellent season in Single-A Clearwater with six home runs to date. The only complaints are that he can be over-aggressive at the plate and his swing can get a bit long. He's also at least two seasons away from the majors, so the Phillies need a stopgap (see Asche and Galvis below).

False flags

These are the guys with limited upside who are consistently pointed to as an heir apparent.

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez has started the 2013 season with a .341/.391/.480 batting line at Triple-A Lehigh Valley (don't mind the .404 BABIP). He profiles as a second division starter or utility infielder, combining a slightly below average offensive presence with strong defensive skills. Some Phillies fans are ready to boot Chase Utley to make room for him.

Cody Asche has been on the radar since last season for the third base-starved Phillies. His combination of middling tools across the board will make him a useful stopgap, but his upside appears to be similar to Chris Johnson.

Many hoped Darin Ruf would help the Phillies' outfield this season. He's a bad defender with big power and some bat speed concerns. Again, he can probably hold down a position—especially first base—and provide better than replacement level production, but the ultimate upside is probably similar to Jason Kubel. For those keeping track at home, Kubel has turned in one above-average performance in the last seven seasons.

Freddy Galvis is a no-hitting, defensive wizard. Talk of his replacing Utley or Rollins is premature. His best use is as a defensive replacement, even with second division clubs. He is very young—this is his age 23 season—so he could grow into a more useful complementary player.

Jonathan Pettibone has the makings of a solid work horse, but he's unlikely to be any better than average. Similar pitchers like J.A. Happ and Vance Worley have been shipped out of town at the first opportunity.

What should the Phillies do?

I've already said that the Phillies should not engage in an Astros-style overhaul of the roster. Given their paucity of major league-ready prospects, that direction will produce bad results for many seasons to come. Maintaining a relatively competitive roster should ensure enough revenue to rebuild effectively.

One issue with the roster is a wide array of pricey veterans, which lends itself to the tear-down approach. It may be best to walk a fine line.

There is a blue print that can be followed. If the Phillies find themselves as deadline sellers, they can look to build a salary dump as the Red Sox did. That might look like Cliff Lee (Adrian Gonzalez), Ryan Howard (Carl Crawford), and Michael Young or Rollins (Josh Beckett) for a couple pitchers of with upside. The cash transfer would determine the quality of prospect involved.

Such a trade requires a partner and it may be that the Dodgers last year were a one-of-a-kind opportunity for the Red Sox. However, with the Marlins also doing a major player dump over the offseason and baseball flush with TV dollars, such deals may become more common.

The Yankees are the most obvious partner, assuming that they remain in the playoff hunt and need veteran reinforcements. The Bombers have supposedly given up their attempt to squeeze payroll under the luxury tax threshold after realizing that the potential financial gain was substantially smaller than first thought. That would make Cliff Lee a welcome addition. The case for Howard requires at least one of Travis Hafner or Mark Teixeira to be injured. It seems unlikely that the Phillies would deal Lee without ridding themselves of Howard. Any of Young, Rollins or Carlos Ruiz would be a helpful addition to round out the trade.

The only other teams that might be a potential partner are the Rangers and Red Sox. Both are perceived to have less financial flexibility than the Yankees.

With or without a blockbuster salary dump, the Phillies have several players headed to free agency. Young, Utley, Ruiz and Halladay are the most notable at this time.

Young is the easiest to discard, as a combination of Kevin Frandsen, Asche, Galvis, and potentially even Hernandez could replicate his value on a league minimum contract.

Utley should be re-signed if possible. His veteran leadership, grinder mentality, and talent trump the injury risk associated with his knees - at least from an outsider's perspective. The club could have additional information not publicly available, but Utley is supposedly playing pain free for the first time in years—and it looks like it.

Utley may be the Phillies' Chipper Jones—a fan favorite who provides huge value when healthy and misses more than a few games. A useful back-up like Hernandez or Galvis will help cover for the time he misses. He'll likely cost a little more than he's worth from a purely on-field perspective, but the difference should be acceptable given his tangible intangibles.

Ruiz should also be re-signed assuming he remains healthy and shakes off the rust he's showing. The Phillies have some catching prospects, but none are banging down the door. Meanwhile, Ruiz can help guide the influx of young pitchers. Given his age and recent amphetamine suspension, a modest two-year deal should be sufficient.

The Phillies will also be tempted to trade Rollins and Kyle Kendrick around the trade deadline. In either case, the quality of the offer must be weighed. Replacing Rollins would prove difficult. Galvis can provide marginally better defense at the expense of terrible offense and the only true shortstop prospects are many years away from the majors.

Kendrick has grown into a solid mid-rotation pitcher—like a more groundball-oriented version of Kyle Lohse. The perception around the league may not match his actual value. He's eligible for one more season of arbitration.

Concluding thoughts

The Phillies do not have the luxury of pursuing a pure buy or sell strategy. They must delicately lace the two together to weave a newly competitive roster.

Getting out from under the Howard contract would be hugely helpful in that it would allow the club much needed payroll flexibility while freeing the club to pursue better production at first base. Such an outcome may be impossible at this time, but this would be a good use for valuable veterans like Lee, Rollins, and/or Ruiz.

Beyond pulling off a blockbuster, the Phillies should be open to keeping each of their veterans but also willing to move them in the correct deal. The team does need to get younger, but that cannot be done blindly.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Brad Johnson 2013-05-15T07:08:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-14-13/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-14-13/#When:09:39:15 The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): I'm nervous recommending Scott Kazmir, but it seems like conditions are in his favor. He faces the Phillies and is coming off a superb outing against the A's.

John Lackey is another guy on the retread rack. He'll face the Rays, who seem light-hitting but have actually been a top 10 offense.

John Gast is a potentially interesting choice for those who are comfortable playing minor league success. From what I can gather, Gast is "live-armed," can struggle with command, and has a high ceiling as a reliever.

Andrew Cashner is still out there, waiting to hit triple digits on your team.

Pitcher (bum): The match-up between R.A. Dickey and Barry Zito could provide some 1990s era offense.

Jeff Francis has one of his best assignments so far—the Cubs. That isn't stopping me from recommending against him.

Dillon Gee spent a lot of time in my "to start" section. This isn't me throwing him under the bus, the Cardinals are a tough offense to overcome.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston is the top pick for power output.

Chris Johnson will face Patrick Corbin in a battle to see who can defy regression longer.

Jonny Gomes will start but Matt Moore isn't easy pickin's. Too bad he can't face Francis too.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra is worth a look.

As noted in the comments yesterday, Charlie Blackmon will likely see some of the time I originally slated for Eric Young Jr. Still, Young was already starting frequently, so he's should see a few more games now.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Phil Hughes has settled in after a shaky start to the season and has a favorable assignment against the Mariners. He's also 50 percent owned, so he may not be available to many readers.

For some reason, I'm reticent to recommend Mike Leake, even against the lowly Marlins. There's nothing in his peripherals to justify that reticence besides a low-ish strikeout rate.

Pitcher (bum): For once, I'm going to recommend using the Phillies offense. Corey Kluber is coming off a meltdown outing, though he had previously looked sharp.

Mike Pelfrey will face a struggling White Sox team in a battle to see who can struggle more.

Shaun Marcum has been a mess thus far, and like Gee, he'll also need to turn it around against the Cardinals. Eesh.

Wade Davis faces Barry Enright in what promises to be a high scoring affair. I usually like Davis, but a match-up against the Angels is off-putting.

Hitter (power): Gomes faces another difficult lefty in David Price.

Tomorrow is a good day to try Colby Rasmus against Ryan Vogelsong.

Domonic Brown draws Kluber.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain would be a nice addition against Enright.

Try Nate Schierholtz against Jon Garland.

Noteworthy news

Bryce Harper is showing the portion of his skill set that most worries me. He lost a fight with a wall yesterday that has left him day-to-day with some stitches and a possibly jammed shoulder. Harper has that Griffeyesque penchant for leaving it all on the field (and then some).

Weather watch

Hooray for more great weather.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Brad Johnson 2013-05-14T09:39:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-13-13/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-13-13/#When:09:38:15 The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Hector Santiago will face the Twins today. He sports a 23 percent ownership rate and has posted strong peripherals including an increased whiff rate that has led to a strikeout per inning and low walk rate.

Justin Grimm has a solid match-up away in Oakland. The Athletics can be a challenge for stream-quality pitchers, especially if they don't have their best command and control that day.

Juan Nicasio might be a bit of a stretch, but a game against the Cubs' mediocre offense should help him.

Pitcher (bum): Luis Mendoza will face Joe Blanton—a game that promises to be high scoring.

Jeremy Hefner may have a hard time against the Cardinals.

This could be a big day for the Indians offense. Both David Phelps and Vidal Nuno are exploitable.

Hitter (power): It's a good day for a double play from Travis Hafner.

Travis Snider is off everybody's radar, but Marco Estrada is a good place to target his first long ball of the season.

Hitter (speed): Michael Brantley might get into two games, but I'm guessing he'll actually platoon with Drew Stubbs today.

Eric Young Jr. should be starting quite regularly with Michael Cuddyer on the disabled list.

Lorenzo Cain should like facing Blanton.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Scott Kazmir is coming off two strong outings. In a very small sample, he's pitching like it's 2008 again. The Phillies are exploitable by lefties, which makes it easier to overcome my general distrust of Kazmir.

I never thought I'd still be able to recommend Andrew Cashner. He should be owned in most keeper formats, although his redraft value is probably in line with his ownership rate of 27 percent.

John Lackey will struggle to win the game since he's opposed by Matt Moore, but a match-up against the Rays is fairly friendly.

You may not want to start him, but keep an eye on John Gast. He's filling in for Jake Westbrook and his minor league numbers suggest the potential for solid results.

Pitcher (bum): I don't play feelings very often, but I have a feeling the Blue Jays are going to tee off on Barry Zito. R.A. Dickey's turned into a bit of a punching bag too; he really needs to go to the disabled list and recover.

Jeff Francis starting means Cubs hitters should go wild.

Dillon Gee seems like he needs to reboot. St. Louis is not the place to do it.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston should see action against Francis.

Patrick Corbin is going to turn pumpkin eventually. So is Chris Johnson, which makes this an interesting platoon option. My money is on Corbin winning.

Jonny Gomes has that tough assignment against Moore.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra is worth streaming tomorrow.

Hang onto Young Jr.

Noteworthy news

I have a graduation to attend today, so don't expect any responses. Oh, you expected real major league baseball news...

Apparently there was a kerfuffle over the use of some pink-labeled bats yesterday. Louisville Slugger owns exclusive rights to brand pink bats used by MLB players. Other manufacturers can make pink bats, but they cannot be labeled. I'm not sure why that qualifies as noteworthy, but I've noted it.

Anthony Rizzo was the latest beneficiary of the now common, pre-arbitration contract extension. He's inked for another seven seasons.

Weather watch

No weather to speak of although the Yankees and Indians doubleheader will be chilly and windy.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Brad Johnson 2013-05-13T09:38:15+00:00