The Hardball Times -- Craig Brown

Don’t you forget about me

Craig Brown — 2010-01-08T10:30:15+00:00

In December, perhaps lost among the holiday shuffle, the Associated Press released the final payroll numbers for 2009. These amounts differ from Opening Day payrolls in that they account for player moves during the season, along with the entire expense of the 40-man roster, including prorated signing bonuses, incentive bonuses and buyouts.

Overall, teams spent a combined $2.9 billion in payroll in 2009, an increase of 1.2 percent from the previous year.

The final list isn’t Earth-shattering. We know the Yankees outspend everyone by a gazillion dollars. We know the Marlins snag as many free refills as possible at the McDonald’s. And we know that if your team has serious playoff aspirations, it had better live in the top third of this list—in 2009, six of the eight playoff teams came from the top 11 spenders. A seventh, the Detroit Tigers, barely missed.

Naturally, because the best teams have the higher payrolls, the best players and the lion’s share of media coverage seem to follow. We know the Red Sox signed John Lackey, the Phillies traded for Roy Halladay and the Mets signed Jason Bay. It's impossible to follow the game and not know the details of all these moves. The rich stay rich.

What about the bottom half of the payroll spectrum? Is anything going on this winter with these guys? What happens when a team isn’t in the hunt for any of the top 10 free agents? How do these teams approach the offseason?

If your team is listed here, you are already familiar with the moves made. That’s not the point of this article. The point is to look at the financial second division clubs as a group, to see how they are approaching the winter differently from the teams with more money. This is a big picture look at the lower end of baseball’s current financial structure—the middle to lower class, if you will. You’re not going to find names like Holliday, Lackey, Bay or Halladay here. Instead, we’ll be talking about Capps, Cust, Gomes and Atkins.

Colorado Rockies
Final 2009 payroll: $84,450,797

The Rockies are one of only two teams below the median that reached the postseason—or, as they fondly refer to it in Colorado, “Rocktober.”

With nearly $50 million tied up among Todd Helton, Aaron Cook, Brad Hawpe, Jeff Francis, Troy Tulowitzki and the arbitration-eligible Huston Street, the Rockies' big move this winter has been to stand pat. They non-tendered Garrett Atkins (.226/.308/.342, -0.4 WAR) which allowed him to walk to Baltimore as a free agent, but that’s fine since they have a younger, cheaper and better option in place with Ian Stewart. Stewart finished with 47 extra base hits in 491 plate appearances while posting a slash line of .228/.322/.464 and a 1.2 WAR.

They were looking for a capable catching backup should Chris Iannetta (.228/.344/.460, 2.0 WAR) falter, and with the current rate for crummy catchers is two years at $6 million, found a one-year, $2 million bargain in Miguel Olivo, who hit .249/.292/.490 with 23 home runs last summer.

The Helton renaissance (.325/.416/.489, 3.6 WAR) won’t continue—CHONE projects him at .286/.387/.432 and a 3.0 WAR—but the Rockies entered this winter in good shape with a strong young nucleus. Despite the Helton contract, they seem to be in a good position.

Toronto Blue Jays
Final 2009 payroll: $84,130,513

Well, about $10 million of that obligation went away when the Jays shipped starter Roy Halladay to the Phillies for a bushel of prospects. Unfortunately, they owe $6 million to the Phils to complete the trade and they are on the hook to B.J. Ryan for $10 million, although he was released last July after posting a gaudy 7.60 FIP. Add the staggering $21 million ($12.5 million in salary and $8.5 million in a signing bonus) they owe Vernon Wells (.260/.311/.400, -0.1 WAR) and the Blue Jays are shelling out $37 million to dead weight. That’s unacceptable for any team. In the AL East, that’s a death wish.

As you would expect, the Jays are repositioning and going for youth. They added starting pitcher Kyle Drabek and infielder Brett Wallace in the Halladay deal along with catcher Travis d’Arnaud. Of the three, Wallace is the closest to the majors after hitting .297/.354/.460 in 106 games in Triple-A last summer. The Jays say Drabek will open in Double-A, but I don’t believe that for a second.

Then, after the Halladay blockbuster, the Jays acquired pitcher Brandon Morrow from Seattle. Morrow has a career 4.56 FIP, mostly as a reliever, but he’ll get a crack at a Toronto rotation thin on starting pitching depth. The latest rumors have them making a charge for Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman.

Purging the sins of the Riccardi administration will take some time, but the new regime seems headed down the correct path.

Kansas City Royals
Final 2009 payroll: $81,917,563

Some of you—okay, make that all of you—are undoubtedly surprised the lowly Royals outspent 12 teams last summer. All that got them was 65 wins and another last-place finish.

What does that mean for 2010? For starters, there is a lack of payroll flexibility; the Royals have already committed more than $62 million to contracts for next year. This has led to a winter in which Jason Kendall and Brian Anderson are the big free agent signings and the big trade was Mark Teahen, who was eligible for arbitration, being dealt for Josh Fields and Chris Getz, who are both a couple of years away from arbitration. Despite some questionable major league moves that have left their hands tied, the Royals are stepping up on the international front by signing Cuban defector Noel Argulles for a reported $7 million.

The big contracts belong to Gil Meche ($12 million) and Jose Guillen ($12 million). Meche has two years left on his contract and could be trade fodder if he proves himself healthy. However, Kansas City will likely have to suffer through another season of Guillen before he comes off the books next winter. The Royals project to hold steady on their Opening Day payroll, with projections keeping them around $70 million.

Keep an eye on the Royals. They could be setting records for offensive futility in 2010.

Baltimore Orioles
Final 2009 payroll: $79,308,066

Remember when the Orioles were big spenders and competing against the Yankees every year for supremacy in the AL East? Ahhh, nostalgia for the ‘90s.

Things are different in Baltimore these days. Gone are two of their three highest-paid players entering the 2009 season. Aubrey Huff, who hit .253/.321/.405 with a -0.4 WAR for Baltimore was shipped to Detroit for the final month and a half of the season where he promptly tanked with a slash line of .189/.265/.302 and a -0.7 WAR. Long-time Oriole Melvin Mora was allowed to walk after posting a .260/.321/.356 line with 0.9 WAR, by far his worst season of his Baltimore career.

Brian Roberts remains, but shedding $16 million of unproductive veterans allowed the Orioles to take on Kevin Millwood. He’ll cost the Orioles $9 million, with the Rangers kicking in the balance of his contract. The O’s took the balance of the savings— and then some—by welcoming free agents Garrett Atkins and Mike Gonzalez into the fold at a total 2010 cost of $10 million. It's possible there's still some cash floating around, as the Orioles were reportedly in the Holliday Sweepstakes, but it’s difficult to believe they were serious players.

Some may look at the three newcomers and say they only need to earn a combined positive WAR to better the two high-priced veterans they’re essentially replacing on the payroll. But that’s just an excuse to spend money just because you have money to spend. Teams that operate in this fashion are rarely successful. Of course, we can debate the merits of throwing multi-million dollar contracts at relievers until the snow melts. Gonzalez was certainly productive as Atlanta’s closer last year with a 3.51 FIP while posting a strikeout rate of 10.9 K/9, but he’s coming off a year in which he set career highs for appearances (80) and innings pitched (74.1) and will be tasked with transitioning to a new league. Millwood’s strikeout rate and health have been in precipitous decline since 2004. And Atkins is a career .327/.385/.507 hitter at Coors Field and a .252/.324/.411 hitter everywhere else, and is below average defensively.

The good thing is, these are all short-term deals. That way, they can make the same mistakes next year.

Texas Rangers
Final 2009 payroll: $77,208,810

The Rangers allowed Millwood to trigger the clause on his 2010 contract by throwing in more than 180 innings (he pitched 198) and then were able to shift him to Baltimore for Chris Ray. With the savings they realized, they were able to sign Rich Harden to a deal that will pay him $6.5 million this year. If Harden can stay healthy (that's such a huge "if," I should have put it in all caps and bold. IF Harden can stay healthy...) he could benefit from the Rangers' solid infield defense and pile up his usual strikeout numbers, making him a tremendous bargain.

As it stands, Harden is one of just four Rangers currently signed, along with Michael Young ($16 million), Ian Kinsler ($4.2 million) and Darren Oliver ($3 million) bringing their total current commitment to 2010 to $36 million. (The numbers don’t add up because of the amount they sent to Baltimore in the Millwood deal, along with some other cash owed to former players.) They have a few key players eligible for arbitration, including Frank Francisco—who will get closer money— and Josh Hamilton.

Currently, the Rangers are targeting a designated hitter, with free agents Vladimir Guerrero along with usual suspects Jim Thome and Gary Sheffield mentioned as possible candidates.

The Rangers have been a paragon of fiscal stability when it comes to payroll matters. From 2006 to 2009, their Opening Day payroll ranged from $68.3 million to $67.7 million. That’s some consistency. GM Jon Daniels maintains that the impending sale won’t have an impact on the planning for the upcoming season. We’ll see.

Cleveland Indians
Final 2009 payroll: $77,192,253

With nearly $50 million in commitments to 2010 already in place, the Indians don’t have a great deal of flexibility.

They’ve handled their potential arbitration cases by trading Kelly Shoppach to Tampa and non-tendering Anthony Reyes and Jose Veras. Reyes was resigned to a minor league deal and won’t pitch until at least the middle of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery while Veras became a free agent. Only Rafael Perez remains and he posted a 7.31 ERA and 4.81 FIP in 48 relief innings. He’s had some success in the past, but he’s not going to break the bank.

Otherwise, they’ve been mining the bottom of the free agent barrel, signing Austin Kearns and Shelley Duncan to minor league contracts.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Final 2009 payroll: $73,800,852

The Diamondbacks sneaked into the gated community of baseball’s fiscal elite when they were the third team in the three-team deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees. Their portion of the deal—they sent Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit and picked up Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy in return—was universally panned.

From a fiscal standpoint, Arizona loses a cost-controlled Scherzer, gains a cost-controlled Kennedy but takes on Scott Boras client Jackson in his second year of arbitration eligibility. In his third year as a starter, Jackson topped 200 innings for the first time while posting a career-best 4.28 FIP.

On the free agent front, they’ve committed less than $5 million combined for Kelly Johnson and Bobby Howry. At $2.25 million for Howry with a $3 million club option for 2011, the Diamondbacks have avoided the pitfall of overpaying for relievers. That’s a good thing given his falling strikeout rate, but he’s still been rather effective over the last several years with a FIP hovering around 3.50.

The Diamondbacks currently have roughly $45 million spoken for with a current projected payroll around $75 million. That leaves them little room to add another contract, unless the market drops out as we get closer to spring training.

Minnesota Twins
Final 2009 payroll: $73,068,407

Three teams in the AL Central fall into the fiscal range of this article, with the Twins bringing up the rear. Yet, they’re the defending Central champs.

The Twins seem to have found the correct blend of high-priced talent with low-cost youth. Three of their top five players ranked by WAR are also three of the top four earners on the club: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer. The fourth is closer Joe Nathan. This gives the Twins the comfort of knowing they’re spending the most on their best players.

Not many teams at this end of the fiscal spectrum can make a similar boast. Take the team just above them in this article, the Arizona Diamondbacks, for example. Their top earner next year will be Eric Byrnes at $11 million. He posted a 0.5 WAR last summer, making him the 10th best offensive player on his team. CHONE projects him at .251/.308/.411 for 2010 with a 1.2 WAR.

There’s a right way and a wrong way. The Twins do things the right way.

So far this winter the Twins made one trade, sending Carlos Gomez to Milwaukee for J.J. Hardy. That fills their shortstop hole with a player who should bounce back from a subpar .229/.302/.357 season with just a 1.4 WAR. CHONE projects him at .253/.307/.404 and a WAR of 2.5, which is among the most pessimistic of projections I’ve seen for Hardy.

With a few players eligible for arbitration, indications are the Twins will bump their payroll to around $90 million for 2010 as they move into their new digs at Target Field. This could be very bad news for the rest of the AL Central.

Cincinnati Reds
Final 2009 payroll: $72,693,206

The Reds already have a whopping $64 million committed for 2010. More than $36 million of that will go to three pitchers: Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and Francisco Cordero. While all can be solid pitchers, teams at this end of the spectrum normally can carry just one of these types of contracts with minimal damage to the budget. Three of these really hurt. Then add the $7.66 million to Scott Rolen and the $4 million to Willy Taveras, and you can see how this budget is a mess.

To avoid adding to that amount, the Reds non-tendered Jonny Gomes, who at .267/.338/.541 was Cincinnati’s second best hitter last summer (but was brutal in the field with a -23.7 UZR/150) and did the same with Laynce Nix. Nix was re-signed to a minor league deal.

Until some of these contracts are off the books—Harang and Arroyo have club options and will almost certainly be bought out at $2 million each next winter—it will be slow going in Cincinnati. The Reds are currently looking at adding players through minor league deals and recently signed Josh Anderson to such a contract.

Tampa Bay Rays
Final 2009 payroll: $71,222,532

The Rays found that winning comes with a cost. Their Opening Day payroll jumped from $47 million in 2008 to $67 million last year with their final outlay listed above. Their final payroll in 2009 represented the largest increase among all teams—39.6 percent—from the previous season.

And there's still some fiscal flexibility to be found in Tampa. They shipped Akinori Iwamura to the Pirates for Jesse Chavez to free up salary and to open a regular spot for the Zorilla—Ben Zobrist. They then turned Chavez and all that money around (and then some) on Rafael Soriano. At $7.25 million, Soriano figures to get a shot at the Rays closing job. As long as his elbow holds together, this could be a nifty pickup for Tampa. As David Golebiewski points out, Soriano had the second lowest strike zone contact percentage among all relief pitchers.

They are already on the hook for $57 million in 2010, and that amount figures to climb with deals for Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, B.J. Upton and J.P. Howell yet to be settled. Tampa looks to head into the 2010 season with a payroll of around $70 million">payroll of around $70 million, which would be the highest in team history.

Washington Nationals
Final 2009 payroll: $69,321,137

With the contracts of Austin Kearns, Nick Johnson and Dimitri Young totaling $18.5 million off the books, the Nats have been fairly active this winter, signing free agents Jason Marquis, Matt Capps and Ivan Rodriguez at a combined $14 million for 2010. Given that Kearns, Johnson and Young all logged more time in the trainer's room than the dugout in ’09, it’s a fairly safe assumption that the new group will provide more value than the old.

Besides, Marquis has that playoff streak going. I’d be more impressed if he made playoff appearances in all of those years.

The Nationals will likely open the year with around $60 million in commitments, which was where they were at the beginning of last year. Mike Rizzo promises the Nats aren’t finished adding players—they could use some help in the rotation and improving their defense— but it’s difficult to see what they could add outside of a few minor league deals with invites to spring training.

Oakland Athletics
Final 2009 payroll: $61,688,124

The A’s have allocated only $30 million for 2010 and $12.5 million of that goes to Eric Chavez, who has appeared in only 31 games over the last two years. Mercifully, this is the final year of his contract.

So far this winter, the A’s have parted with Adam Kennedy and Bobby Crosby, dealt for Jake Fox and Aaron Miles, signed free agent Coco Crisp and re-signed Jack Cust to a $2.5 million deal. That represents a pay cut for the slugger whom CHONE projects to bash .240/.370/.445 next summer with 28 home runs. They also re-signed Justin Duchscherer, who hasn’t pitched since 2008 because of injuries, to a $2 million deal. Business as usual on the east side of the bay. They will look to fill a hole at shortstop; it probably will be closer to the beginning of camp before they make a move.

Looking even further down the road, the A’s have virtually no commitments in 2011 outside of a few club option buyouts and the usual arbitration decisions. This makes Oakland worth watching as the A's position themselves for the future.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Final 2009 payroll: $47,991,132

The Pirates are trying to manage costs and build through youth so it was kind of strange they would trade for Iwamura, who will be the second highest earner on the team next year and is projected by CHONE to hit .284/.365/.393 with a 2.2 WAR. However, it’s not a bad contract and it’s not like he’s blocking anyone at second. I guess they had to do something. Otherwise, the Pirates are rummaging through the injured pitcher discount bin, picking up the likes of Brian Burres and Neal Cotts while bringing back Tyler Yates to minor league deals. To date, the Pirates have extended 13 pitchers non-roster invites to spring training.

The Pirates are currently committed to $20.5 million for 2010, but after settling with Ronny Cedeno, they have only Zach Duke eligible for arbitration. If the Pirates' budget is similar to last year’s, there is still some room—around $15 million—to add a contract or three.

Currently, Paul Mahom is the highest paid Pirate, earning $5 million next year. That gives him the dubious distinction of having the lowest team-best salary in baseball.

San Diego Padres
Final 2009 payroll: $43,210,258

After trading Jake Peavy last summer and letting Brian Giles walk via free agency, the Padres are in position to have their lowest club payroll since 2001 when they shelled out just under $40 million. Their final payroll number was down 39.3 percent from 2008, the largest decline among all teams.

The fiscal belt-tightening remains in place. New GM Jed Hoyer is shopping for bargains and is willing to wait. Indeed, no team has been as silent as the Padres this winter. When your top acquisition is Dusty Ryan, who hit .154/.267/.192 in 30 plate appearances last year, that should be the first sign that it’s going to be a slow winter. (I chose Ryan as the top acquisition over Radhames Liz, who was a waiver claim from Baltimore after pitching 1.1 innings and giving up 10 earned runs last summer.)

Florida Marlins
Final 2009 payroll: $37,532,482

The Marlins will occupy the payroll basement until at least 2012, when they move into their new Miami stadium. Until then, look for Florida to make more moves to avoid arbitration eligible players, like the trade of Jeremy Hermida to Boston or Matt Lindstrom to Houston. Still, they won’t be able to completely dodge the arbitration bullet. This month they’ll have to deal with Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Cody Ross, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Leo Nunez and Renyel Pinto. Don’t be surprised if some or all of these names are the subject of rumors over the next few weeks.

At least Hanley Ramirez is locked up until 2014.

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An impartial observer

Craig Brown — 2009-10-30T10:00:15+00:00

I’m a baseball fan.

Not exactly a surprise, considering you’re reading this at a baseball website to which I regularly contribute.

As you may know, the Royals are my team. I grew up in Kansas City and came of age when October baseball was the rule, not the exception. So the last 24 years have left me out in the cold once the postseason begins. Of course, since I’m a fan, I’ll watch the games. I find it's always more fun when you have a rooting interest (or a wager) in the outcome. Usually, I'll find a team that interests me for one reason or another and that will be the team I tepidly support for October. Sometimes, I’ll find a team to root against. Last year, I climbed aboard the Rays bandwagon early (like, in May) so I rode that one all the way to the bitter end.

In search of a team early this October, I decided I’d cast my lot with the Angels. No reason, really. They seemed like a nice team with some quality players who were fun to watch. I caught a lot of their games on television this summer when they’re were on late in the Central Time Zone thanks to Extra Innings, so I had followed them more closely than the other teams in the hunt. (I watched my share of Dodgers games as well—love listening to Vin Scully—but what can I say? I’m an American League kind of guy.)

It’s really more a process of elimination when your team isn’t playing in October and you need to find a temporary team to cheer. Here’s how my thought process broke down:

Boston - No. I liked the Sox more when they had that Curse.
Twins - No. They play in the Central, so I’m contractually obligated to hate them.
Los Angeles - The Angels are fine.
Yankees - No. We’ll get to them in a minute.

St. Louis - No. Never. There are simply too many reasons to list.
Colorado - No. Does anyone have an opinion on the Rockies?
Los Angeles - Maybe. Although I always took San Francisco in the whole Dodger/Giant debate.
Phillies - No. We’ll get to them in a minute.

By a straightforward process of elimination, I adopted the Angels as my October team.

Unfortunately, as will happen, my chosen team didn’t win the pennant. This left me without a team. Normally, I’d reassess and pick a new team (the benefits of temporary fandom) but this year posed a special risk.

You see, the Yankees are my least favorite team in the American League. And the Phillies are my least favorite team in the National League.

Oh, no.

This hatred for the Yankees and the Phillies isn’t something I manufactured. This is real. It’s part of being a fan.

Why I don’t like the Yankees

Forget all that Evil Empire stuff. It’s personal…

1976, 1977, 1978.

God, those years were painful. The Chris Chambliss home run to end the series in ’76… The Freddie Patek double play to end the series in ’77…. We're talking some permanent psychological scars.

In ’76. the Royals took an early lead in the decisive fifth game, but were trailing by the third after a Thurman Munson single and a Chambliss ground out. The Royals couldn’t do a thing against starter Ed Figueroa after the second inning and were down 6-3 entering the eighth. An Al Cowens single leading off the inning chased Figueroa. Reliever Grant Jackson gave up a single to Jim Wohlford, bringing up George Brett who promptly tied the game with a home run.

It was a cruel lifeline. Mark Littell, starting his third inning in relief in the bottom of the ninth, grooved a pitch to Chambliss, who set off a pandemonium bomb in the Bronx.

The next year was worse: The Royals were at home and led the fifth game from the beginning. They put two runs across in the first as Brett tripled to score Hal McRae, setting off a brawl in the process. Brett slid hard into third, angering Graig Nettles, who appeared to kick Brett. Brett jumped up and began swinging, landing a solid punch to Nettles’ jaw before the melee was halted. I loved every minute.

Tensions aside, the Royals held the lead until the ninth. Just three outs away from their first pennant, the Royals unraveled. A Paul Blair single, a walk to Roy White and a Mickey Rivers single tied the game at three. New reliever Littell (him again!) is brought in to face Willie Randolph, who drives in the go-ahead run on a sacrifice fly. A Brett error plates the third run of the inning and suddenly the Royals, who were on the brink of celebration, are on the edge of despair.

The collapse was complete when relief ace Sparky Lyle induced Patek into a series ending double play.

The ’78 ALCS was difficult as well, but since the Yankees won in four, it wasn’t as heartbreaking as the previous two. I mean, Ron Guidry pitched the fourth game of that series because the Yankees needed him in their one-game playoff with the Red Sox. Nobody was beating Guidry in ’78. The final game was a quality pitchers duel as both starters went eight innings, but the Yankees touched Dennis Leonard for two home runs. That was the difference. Doesn’t mean it didn’t sting.

Why I hate the Phillies

It’s simple…

1980

Finally, the Royals got by the Yankees in ’80, sweeping the ALCS in three games. The iconic moment in that series was the towering Brett home run against Goose Gossage to vault the Royals ahead in the seventh. Dan Quisenberry salted the game away with the final nine outs and the Royals celebrated the first pennant in their relatively short history

All was right in the world.

Until they went to Philadelphia.

The Royals dropped the first two at the Vet, the second a heartbreaker when Quisenberry couldn’t hold a two-run lead in the eighth. They returned to Kansas City and won Game Three in the 10th, then evened the Series behind a pair of Willie Aikens home runs the next day. With the Series even at two games apiece, it perhaps was destined to go the full seven.

Then Quisenberry coughed up another lead. A Del Unser pinch-hit double drove home Mike Schmidt and Manny Trillo brought Unser home with the go-ahead run on a two-out single, forcing the Royals to return to Philly needing both games to win the Series.

Of course, that didn’t happen as Steve Carlton and Tug McGraw held the Royals to a single tally in Game Six to bring the Phillies their first title in club history.

So I have an unpleasant history with these two teams.

Is it silly to dislike these teams so long after they crushed my preadolescent hopes of glory? Perhaps. However, as my friend Minda told me last night, there is no statute of limitations on sports grudges. I figured I’d just settle into this year’s Series with a certain degree of apathy. Maybe sometimes that’s the best way to view a major sporting event. This way, I can appreciate the good plays, chuckle at the blunders and wonder what the hell the umpires were watching when they inevitably blow a call. Without an emotional investment, I’m free to be a fan of the game.

Then, a funny thing happened on the way to impartiality and indifference...

I enjoy well-played, fundamentally sound baseball. (Which is strange considering I’m a Royals fan. Maybe there’s something there about wanting what you cannot have.) So in the first two innings of Wednesday’s game, I found myself locked in to the broadcast. An impartial observer. Sure, C.C. Sabathia wasn’t exactly sharp in the first inning, but his escape from a potentially disastrous start was compelling.

As we all know, Sabathia retired Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino to start the third. Then Chase Utley stepped to the plate.

Really, this at-bat was just awesome baseball. A great pitcher against a great hitter. Sabathia threw fastballs, sliders and a sinker. Utley took three pitches out of the zone and swung at five, fouling off all of them. On pitch number nine, Utley skied one to deep right…

“Get up!” I said to my television.

Huh? I thought I was impartial. I thought I’d just watch these games without a rooting interest. I thought I just wanted to see some baseball.

“Get up!” I said again, only louder.

Home run.

I did a little fist pump.

From there, it became effortless. I clapped when Utley crushed his second home run and marveled at how Cliff Lee toyed with the most potent offense in the game. I was delighted when Joe Girardi tried to find a reliever capable of getting an out and thought Alex Rodriguez looked right at home with his three-strikeout night.

It turns out that over 30 years later, I’m still not over the devastation of those playoff losses to the Yankees. I’m probably not over the World Series loss of ’80 either, but when it comes down to it, the Phillies broke my heart only once. The Yankees stomped on it thrice.

Don't get me wrong. If the Phillies win, I’m not going to climb up a light pole in celebration, or buy any of that overpriced, ugly championship gear that MLB will immediately begin hawking. I won’t do Google searches for the Phillie Phanatic or name my next child after Jayson Werth. I just know I would be happier with a Phillies championship than if the Yankees emerge as victors. Sometimes, that’s all it takes to be the team I pull for in the World Series. And since my Royals won't be returning to the postseason any time soon, this will be a ritual I'll continue to fine tune over the next several years.

Go Phillies. I guess.

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Your vote for the AL Cy Young

Craig Brown — 2009-10-06T19:05:15+00:00

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Making their pitch for the Cy

Craig Brown — 2009-10-02T05:05:15+00:00

With most of the pennant races a snooze—excepting the AL Central—we need a diversion as the season winds down. This year, it seems there’s been a plethora of attention given to the balloting for the postseason awards that will be bestowed by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA). It’s made for a lively couple of months.

Today, I’d like to focus on the American League Cy Young Award. Here are the candidates and their statistics in starts through Sept. 29, with leaders in a particular category indicated in bold.

The first thing that jumps out is the fact this is a fine class of starters who are in the running for this award. CC Sabathia leads the league in wins. Felix Hernandez is tops in won-loss percentage. Justin Verlander has thrown more innings and recorded more strikeouts than any pitcher in the AL. Zack Greinke has the best ERA and is tied with Roy Halladay with the most shutouts. Halladay owns the most complete games. Halladay also has the lowest walk total among qualified pitchers in the league.

Baseball award voting is similar to political elections in that one issue can sway a voter into making a decision for or against a candidate. There are 28 Cy Young ballots distributed to two writers from each American League city. The ballots are blank, leaving the voters the chore of deciding among the entire universe of pitchers. It could be a daunting task, given that more than 330 pitchers toed the slab this summer. Thankfully, most of the potential candidates eliminate themselves.

This year, it seems we’re left with five starting pitchers worthy of consideration. So when the pool is whittled to the remaining few, how does a voter reach his final decision? Maybe wins is the most important stat to some because this is, after all, a game and wins are the ultimate measure of success. Others may put more weight on ERA. Hell, there even could be a throwback who enjoys a starter with stamina, thus giving the edge to a pitcher who throws more innings and complete games.

Going back to the raw stats, this year seems difficult. Fortunately, other data allow us to go a little deeper than wins and ERA.

Again, we’re all over the board. Verlander is the strikeout king, while Halladay is the best in the league when it comes to controlling the strike zone. Greinke has the best average Game Score and laps the field in ERA+. Hernandez made more quality starts (defined as going six innings or more in a start while allowing three earned runs or fewer) than anyone in the league and was the stingiest when it came to giving up the extra base hit.

Whew.

With such a statistical spectrum, we need to look a little deeper... beyond the bold of the leaders.

Greinke is second in strikeout percentage, strikeouts per nine, extra base hit rate and quality start percentage. He’s allowed the second fewest walks and has the second lowest walk rate among qualifiers for the AL ERA title. Hernandez ranks third in most categories and is second in the categories in which Grienke is the leader. Statistically, those two seem to be the most consistent.

Perhaps the most impressive of all the stats I've listed so far is the ERA+ for Greinke. In the aughts in the American League, only one starter has posted an ERA+ higher than 200—Pedro Martinez. In fact, Martinez accomplished this twice. He had an ERA+ of 210 in 2003 and a mindblowing ERA+ of 291 (which is the record) in his magical 2000 season.

It also should be noted that Greinke has a shot at lowering his ERA to below 2.00. He’ll need to throw seven or more scoreless innings in his Saturday start in the Metrodome to have any kind of a shot. He can’t allow an earned run or it won’t happen. If it does, he’ll be in rare company. Since 1973, when the AL began using the designated hitter, only three AL starting pitchers have posted a sub 2.00 ERA while qualifying for the ERA title.

Pedro Martinez—1.74 ERA in 2000
Roger Clemens—1.93 ERA in 1990
Ron Guidry—1.74 ERA in 1978

Amazingly, just two of those three won the Cy Young. Clemens was beaten by Oakland’s Bob Welch in 1990 despite having a statistical advantage in every category except for wins. Welch won 27 games, Clemens won 21.

Speaking of wins, here's how valuable each of the five candidates has been this season:

That all are in the top five in the AL in each category validates these pitchers as clearly the best starters in 2009. Greinke leads in both Wins Above Replacement and Pitching Runs Created. Sabathia is fifth in both. The remaining three are left to play musical chairs.

If I had a vote, I'd give it to Greinke. That's not my bias talking—even though I picked him to win the award in the preseason prediction article here at THT. For me, the important measurements are runs prevented (as measured by ERA and ERA+) and overall value (represented by WAR and PRC). Greinke leads in all four categories, and by a sizable margin.

On wins

There's been some discussion about the value of wins when measuring the effectiveness of starting pitchers. The knock on Greinke this summer has been he hasn't won enough games. Detractors will point to his record of 16-8 and the fact that the Royals are barely above .500 in his starts (they are 17-15). There are several things that are out of the pitchers control once the ball leaves his hand and is met by the bat. Greinke had the misfortune of pitching in an environment that was hostile to quality starting pitching.

Defense

The pitcher can’t be everywhere. Unfortunately for Greinke, he played in front of one of the worst defenses in baseball.

As Dave Cameron notes, Seattle’s defense has been outstanding this summer, which benefits Hernandez. Kansas City’s hasn’t been historically bad, but the Royals still have been awful with the leather. Greinke's hit rate of 7.6 per nine innings is second only to Sabathia's 7.5. Imagine what Greinke (and Sabathia) could have done if they'sd had average defenses behind them. Certainly some of those hits would have been turned into outs.

His own team’s offense

Greinke had the misfortune of pitching for an inept collection of bats. The Royals ranked at or near the bottom in every meaningful offensive category. It actually got worse when their ace was on the hill.

Greinke wasn’t the only one who suffered. As bad as the Royals offense was, the Mariners was worse.

They still couldn’t hit a lick, but they give did Hernandez a little more pop than they usually provided their pitchers. The Mariners hitters supported their ace a little better than those on the Royals did theirs. Let’s see how someone did with a real offense behind him.

Yankees hitters slugged 100 points higher for Sabathia than the Royals did for Greinke. New York’s offense has been going full throttle for most of the season. The Yanks hit the pedal a little harder—if that’s possible—for Sabathia.

The Tigers offense was fairly middle of the road. Let’s call them consistent. That consistency extended to Verlander's starts.

The bullpen

The starter can't get the win if his bullpen can't protect the lead.

The “Blown W” represents the additional number of wins a pitcher would have to his credit if the bullpen hadn’t given up the lead it was entrusted to protect. The “Avg RA” was the average number of runs the bullpen surrendered in a start for that particular pitcher. This number includes allowing inherited runners to score.

Sabathia didn’t have the strongest bullpen behind him, but usually left the game with a large enough margin—thanks to the 4.4 runs given to him by his offense in his starts—that the bullpen coughing up a couple of runs wasn’t going to cost the Yankees a win. On the other hand, the Royals bullpen in Greinke’s starts didn’t have that buffer thanks to an offense that plated just 3.3 runs per start, which would help explain his four blown wins. Then you have Verlander, who was handicapped with the most unsupportive bullpen of the bunch, while Hernandez had the stingiest.

When you combine the bullpen and a given team's offense, you can get a good handle on the chore facing a starting pitcher just to keep his team in the game. The following graphs represent the number of runs scored for a starting pitcher while he was in the game. The color codes represent the outcome for the starter: A win, a blown win or a loss/no decision.

Lack of run support in the middle of the season doomed Greinke to just two wins in 12 starts.

Hernandez's run support isn't much better than Greinke's, but it's fairly consistent. Unfortunately, when it falls out of the three-to-six run range, it falls to the wrong (lower) side.

Since the end of June, Sabathia has received some quality offensive support on his way to 13 wins

Verlander's run support is all over the place, and he's done well when his team scores four or fewer runs.

Once the amazing run support disappeared for Halladay, so did the wins.

Both Greinke and Hernandez made eight starts in which their team scored one run or none while they were on the mound. However the edge for number of starts with less than ideal run support would go to Verlander, who made nine starts in which he received one or zero runs while he was in the game. But note the peaks on his graph... much higher than the peaks for Hernandez or Greinke. The same could be said for Halladay and Sabathia.

Interesting tidbits

A little trivia to finish...

—Verlander faced the pitchers in this article head to head more than any other starter. He made one start against Halladay, one start against Hernandez and two starts against Sabathia. He also made two starts against Cliff Lee, who could be in this conversation had he stayed with the Indians.

—Greinke was the only pitcher in this group who didn’t go head to head against any of the other four starters.

—Yankees batters were hit 15 times in Sabathia starts.

-- Halladay was never pulled from the game in the middle of an inning.

Finale

The five starters discussed all have had quality seasons and are deserving of consideration. You know who I would choose; now it's time to cast your vote for the AL Cy Young Award. We'll collect votes over the weekend and post the results to THT Live on Monday.

{exp:freeform:form form_name="al_cy_a"prevent_duplicate_on="ip_address" return="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/forms/thanks/"}

Select your choice for the AL Cy Young award:

Zack Greinke
Justin Verlander
Felix Hernandez
Roy Halladay
C.C. Sabathia

Or write in your own candidate:

{/exp:freeform:form}

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Oh, Hanley!

Craig Brown — 2009-09-18T05:05:15+00:00

Just another year for the Florida Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez. Look! There’s Hanley leading the league with 186 base hits. Look! There he is at the top of the leaderboard in batting average at .358. Hey! He has 63 extra base hits. Wow! His OPS+ of 160 trails only Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez.

(Icon/SMI)

Next to the Great Pujols, there isn’t a better hitter in the National League right now than Hanley Ramierz. Why can’t the guy get any love?

Sure, he plays his home games in Miami in front of crowds so small you need your fingers and just a couple of toes to count the fans. So is that it? Are most of us ignoring Ramirez because of geography and apathy from the locals? Or is it because his Marlins haven’t been truly competitive in his first three seasons in the big leagues? The Marlins certainly don’t get time from ESPN or FOX. Or is it because Florida is in the same division as the Mets and the Phillies—two teams that have staged some epic battles over the last few years? Those two teams have overshadowed their competition in the East.

(Disclaimer: On the video game, "MLB, The Show," I created myself as a right-handed throwing, left-handed batting shortstop and picked Ramirez’s batting stance as my own. I’m aware Ramirez bats right, but it’s easier for me to hit as a lefty in video games. Anyway, other than that I modeled my entire player after Ramirez. It’s funny because in high school I threw left, was a first baseman and modeled my batting stance after Rod Carew. I love video games.)

Ramirez has been raking since his professional debut earlier this decade. And it's possible the 2009 season is his best yet. His offensive performance isn't a surprise to those who have followed him for his whole career.

Prologue

Ramirez was signed as an amateur free agent in 2000 by the Boston Red Sox at the age of 16. He made his professional debut in America two years later in the Gulf Coast Rookie League, where he hit .341/.402/.555 in 45 games before earning a promotion to short season A ball in the New York-Penn League. He appeared in 22 games for Lowell and didn’t miss a beat, hitting .371/.400/.356. It was a performance that wowed the prospect watchers who immediately moved him to the head of the Red Sox class. Here’s what Baseball America had to say about the 18 year old following the 2002 season:

"Ramirez is a legitimate five-tool shortstop who has instincts to go with his athletic talents.... Ramirez has quick hands and the ball jumps off his bat… Ramirez recognizes pitches, can hit the breaking ball and uses the whole field… Ramirez projects to be a plus hitter for both average and power in the big leagues...."

Ramirez struggled a bit in Single-A in 2003, hitting .275/.327/.403 in 111 games. At times, his temper landed him in the hot seat. The Sox sent him to extended spring training that year for 10 days after he made an obscene gesture to fans. He had also been sent home from the Instructional League the previous season after cursing at a team trainer. These aren’t good incidents for sure, but the Sox worked with him on his maturity and he played 2004 as a model citizen.

The 2004 season didn’t start well for Ramirez: He fell running the bases and landed on his left wrist. With the young shortstop in pain, doctors initially thought he strained his wrist, but it turned out to be a hairline fracture that caused him to miss almost eight weeks. Once he returned, he turned in a solid performance for High-A Sarasota, hitting .310/.364/.389. That earned him a promotion to Double-A where he hit .310/.360/.512 in 32 games. He was named the Sarasota MVP in 2004, the third time in four professional seasons in which Ramirez was named the team MVP. Baseball America was impressed:

"Ramirez' five-tool package easily stands out.… He's the best athlete in the system with the potential to excel in all aspects of the game."

He played a full season at Double-A in 2005 and hit .271/.335/.385. With the Red Sox having plenty of prospects in the minor league system, Ramirez was a highly tradeable commodity. A deal happened early that offseason. Ramirez arrived in Florida thanks to a trade that sent Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to the Red Sox on Nov. 25.

With Alex Gonzalez departing Florida via free agency and lacking a certain amount of depth at shortstop in their system, the Marlins penciled in Ramirez as their Opening Day starter at short.

His minor league numbers:

   Year     Level       PA        BA       OBP       SLG       BB%       SO%
   2002     Rookie     184       .341      .402      .555      9.7%      9.1%
   2002      A-SS      105       .371      .400      .536      3.8%     14.3%
   2003       A        464       .275      .327      .403      7.6%     17.3%
   2004     A-ADV      263       .310      .364      .389      6.5%     16.3%
   2004       AA       139       .310      .360      .512      7.2%     20.2%
   2005       AA       519       .271      .335      .385      7.5%     13.3%

The first year

In his debut for the Marlins (he went 0-for-2 with two strikeouts in a late September call-up for the Red Sox in 2005), Ramirez led off against Houston’s Roy Oswalt and singled up the middle in his first at bat. He then struck out looking in his next three plate appearances.

Things went much better in his second game: He went 4-for-5 with a double and two RBI. Ramirez closed out his first full month hitting .304/.379/.489 with 11 extra base hits in 92 at bats. Everyone knew Ramirez could hit, but his 11 walks in his first month were a pleasant surprise; his career high for free passes in the minor leagues was only 39.

Touted as a five-tool player, Ramirez was developing power in the minor leagues. (It figures. He was only 21 in his final minor league season.) His biggest home run season was only eight, in 2003 when he was in the Sally League. He hit only six home runs in 465 at bats in his final season in the minors, in Double-A Portland, and his .385 slugging percentage was his lowest rate at any of his minor league stops. Although he was flashing gap power, it seemed it could be a while before he could mature enough as a hitter to drive the ball over the fences with regularity.

Then Ramirez found his power stroke that July in Florida. In 30 games from July 2 to Aug. 2, Ramirez smashed eight home runs and slugged .553. That was a span in which 47 percent of his hits (15 for 32) were for extra bases.

And he was still drawing the walks. He had 12 bases on balls in 129 plate appearances which contributed to his .354 OBP. A walk rate under 10 percent isn’t ideal for a leadoff hitter, but the Marlins didn’t really have anyone else who fit the bill. Miguel Cabrera, with a .430 OBP, was the best Marlin at reaching base, but he was a classic No. 3 hitter. For awhile the Marlins tried Alfredo Amezaga at the top of the order, shifting Ramirez to second, but the lineup worked better with Ramirez leading off and followed by the power of Dan Uggla and then Cabrera.

Ramirez finished strong, hitting .336/.380/.583 over the final two months with 22 doubles, six triples and eight home runs. More than 45 percent of his base hits were for extra bases.

Among rookies who qualified for the batting title, Ramirez led with a .292 batting average and was second to teammate Josh Willingham with an .833 OPS. His final line of .292/.353/.480 with 46 doubles, 11 triples, 17 home runs and 119 runs scored was barely enough to edge Ryan Zimmerman for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. It was an impressive win for Ramirez: The Marlins had an outstanding rookie class, with three of the top four rookie hitters as ranked by WAR. They also had the top two rookie starting pitchers in 2006 with Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez.

NL Rookie hitters, ranked by WAR
Ramirez          4.5
Zimmerman        4.1
Uggla            4.1
Willingham       2.9
Martin           2.8
Ethier           2.2
Fielder          1.1

In all, six Marlins received at least one point in Rookie of the Year balloting. Ramirez was the head of a very impressive class.

The second year

Ramirez returned to the leadoff role and continued to set the table for the Marlins offense. Quite simply, he was the best fulltime leadoff hitter in the game in 2007. He led all hitters with an .405 on-base percentage, batting at the top of the order. (Don’t let certain major league managers fool you—the job of the leadoff man is to get on base.) And thanks to his 68 extra base hits as a leadoff man, he also led his peers with a .596 slugging percentage.

He wasn't just a great leadoff hitter. It's unfair to pigeon-hole him like that. He was a great hitter. Period. Let’s compare two shortstops from that season.

Player A - .332 BA, .386 OBP, .562 SLG, 145 OPS+, 83 XBH, .230 ISO, 6.0 WAR
Player B - .296 BA, .344 OBP, .531 SLG, 118 OPS+, 88 XBH, .235 ISO, 6.8 WAR

Player A is Ramirez. Player B was the National League MVP Jimmy Rollins. Ramirez finished 10th in the balloting.

That summer, Ramirez finished fifth in the league in batting average and ninth in slugging percentage. His 125 runs scored were behind only Rollins, who crossed the plate 139 times. He was second in hits with 212 and his 359 total bases placed him behind only Matt Holliday (386) and Rollins (380).

Granted, Ramirez’s defense was still a little unrefined. (Although putting it that way is probably showing my bias. An impartial observer probably would have termed his defense as horrible or dreadful.) His UZR/150 that year was -20.9, which was the worst rate among qualified shortstops. And according to John Dewan’s Fielding Bible, his plus/minus rating was a -37. Yikes. Rollins, who added the Gold Glove to his hardware that winter, was a +7 and had a UZR/150 of 6.3. He wasn't the best defensive shortstop in the NL that year, but we all know that sometimes offensive performance creeps into the defensive awards.

So maybe it was his defense that held Ramirez back in the MVP balloting, although if that was the case it was probably the first time in the history of the vote that the writers were perceptive enough to downgrade a poor fielding shortstop. Not to take anything away from Rollins, who had a fine season, but if Rollins was the MVP, then Ramirez deserved a little more respect than 10th.

The third year

Ramirez was still in the leadoff spot for the Marlins and posted a .400 on base percentage. Again, that was the best OBP among regular (those with more than 300 plate appearances) leadoff hitters.

His average dropped a bit to .301, but he changed his approach to become much more selective at the plate and drew a career high 92 walks. Here are Ramirez’s walk rates throughout his career:

2006 - 8.0%
2007 - 7.4%
2008 - 13.3%
2009 - 9.2%

It may be that his 2008 walk rate, being four percentage points higher than his second best rate, is an outlier. However, it's obvious he changed his approach at the plate for the 2008 season and was much more selective than he had been in the past.

Swing rate
2006 - 42.3%
2007 - 45.3%
2008 - 40.9%
2009 - 47.6%

With his ability to get on base and the Marlins' powerful lineup behind him, Ramirez again scored 125 runs. This time, that was good enough for the league lead.

Perhaps even more impressive was the fact that he improved his defense. He was no longer a butcher with the glove; he was now slightly below average. His UZR/150 was -0.6 and his Fielding Bible Plus/Minus number improved to +3.

Overall, he again had an outstanding season.

NL Hitters, Ranked by WAR
Pujols           8.9
Utley            8.1
Ramirez          7.6
C. Jones         7.6
Wright           7.4

Still, voters failed to see his greatness. He finished 11th in the MVP balloting. He was behind Carlos Delgado and Aramis Ramirez, whom Ramirez bested in every meaningful statistical category. Sigh. (Ramirez wasn’t the only one overlooked. Chipper Jones led the league with a .364 batting average and a .470 OBP and finished 12th.)

In May of that year, the Marlins locked up their star, signing him to a six year, $70 million deal. The contract effectively buys out his arbitration and first three years of free agency.

The fourth (and current) year

This season, Ramirez is leading the National League with 187 hits and with a .357 batting average. His .422 OBP is the best of his career, as is his current .567 slugging percentage. Here are his stats through Sept. 16:

593 PA, 187 H, 83 XBH, 9.3% BB%, 15.7% SO%, .357 BA, .422 OBP, 567 SLG

This year, Ramirez has a .402 BABIP. That’s crazy high. Part of that is thanks to a career-best 22 percent line drive rate.

Last year, Ramirez hit .239 with runners in scoring position and drove in just 10 percent of all base runners. This year, he’s hitting .379 with runners in scoring position and has cashed in on 20 percent of his RBI opportunities. That’s well above the league average rate of 14 percent and trails only Ryan Ludwick at 21 percent as the hitter most likely to drive in a runner.

Defensively, Ramirez has made strides following his disastrous 2007 season. Bad reputations are difficult to shake, but he’s now posted two solid— if unspectacular—defensive seasons at short.

   Year    UZR/150     P/M
   2006      -6.0      -6
   2007     -20.9      -37
   2008      -0.6       3
   2009      2.4        6

Unfortunately, issues about his maturity have surfaced once again. He was publicly called out by Uggla after coming out of a game in early September with cramping in his left hamstring for his perceived lack of desire and commitment to the team. Other teammates privately felt Ramirez pulled himself from the game to protect his batting average. At the time, he was in an 0-14 slide at the plate and had lost 11 points off his batting average.

Since then, he’s hit in 11 of 13 games (.378/.474/.689) with four home runs.

The immediate future

Ramirez isn’t going to win the 2009 MVP Award. I think the world of the guy, but there’s no way he can beat out The Great Pujols. But with his batting average currently 24 points higher than Pujols, Ramirez is positioned to be the hitter who prevents the first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967.

However, as things currently stand, he should come in second. This reminds me of early in Pujols' career when he was stringing together great season after great season but found himself behind some guy named Bonds. Pujols eventually broke through, winning his first MVP in his fifth major league season in 2005.

The Marlins have won 11 of their last 20 and through the games of Sep. 16 are seven games behind Philadelphia in the NL East and four and a half games out of the wild card spot, trailing Colorado and San Francisco. The Marlins have six games remaining with the Phillies, so a sweep is needed if they have postseason aspirations. It’s a longshot at best. At some point, Ramirez may get his team to the playoffs. Barring a trade to a large market, postseason baseball seems like the only way Ramirez will ever gain the attention and notoriety he deserves.

The long-term future

Is it too soon to compare Ramirez to the great offensive shortstops of all time? Probably, although RJ Anderson did a nifty comparison among Ramirez and a couple of all-time greats. However, any comparison will likely be rendered moot when Ramirez shifts his defensive position sometime in the next couple of years. As great as his bat is, his glove just isn’t up to playing shortstop in the long term. While he’s improved defensively, the minute the Marlins have an adequate replacement lined up, they should shift him to third.

By that stage in his career, maybe we won’t be talking about him being among the greatest hitting shortstops or the greatest hitting third basemen ever… We may be talking about him being one of the best hitters of all time.

Do yourself a favor and try to catch a Marlins game before the season is over in a few weeks—maybe one of their games against the Phillies if you can only watch games that impact the divisional races. Ramirez is definitely worth the time.

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Making their mark

Craig Brown — 2009-08-28T05:04:15+00:00

In its baseball preview issue in March of 2007, Sports Illustrated was flush with Daisuke Matsuzaka mania. The Red Sox' new import was the cover feature and was proclaimed “worthy” of the hype by the magazine.

The staff then pointed to eight young players who, like Dice-K, would be making their mark in the major leagues in 2007. SI ran features on all eight and included a tag line to help identify why they were destined for major league greatness. Three years later (and inspired by a current event you’ll read about in a couple of paragraphs) it seems like a perfect time to check in on the eight and chart their development.

Identifying the next big thing or even solid prospects is a tricky business. This article isn't meant to demean SI for its "misses" or to celebrate its "hits." This is simply a look at eight young players who were singled out and how their careers have progressed over the last three seasons.

Alex Gordon - The Sure Thing

Following the 2006 season where Gordon was the Texas League player of the year, he skipped Triple-A and opened the season in Kansas City. Undoubtedly, he was rushed. In his first 53 games, Gordon hit .173/.285/.281 and seemed destined to spend time in Omaha.

The Royals stuck with him, however and Gordon steadied himself somewhat to hit .306/.347/.519, which would certainly justify his tag as “The Sure Thing.” He tired a bit over the last couple of weeks and finished the year with an overall line of .247/.314/.411. It wasn’t a great line, but given where he stood in mid-June, it was quite an accomplishment for a first year player.

In 2008, Gordon improved his plate discipline and improved on his rookie campaign, which set the stage for what many hoped would be a breakthrough year.

             Year      BB%    O-Swing %  Z-Swing%  Swing %  Contact %    P/PA
             2007      6.8%     25.8%     71.7%     48.4%     75.5%      3.79
             2008     11.6%     24.1%     68.3%     45.9%     76.3%      3.92

Gordon became more selective at the plate and improved his contact rate. The gains weren't enormous, but they were enough to make his sophomore season much better than his rookie campaign. He would be counted on to deliver in 2009.

Unfortunately, this season has been a lost year for The Sure Thing. He hit just .095/.269/.238 through his first seven games before hitting the disabled list with a tear in his hip cartilage that required surgery. When he returned two months later, he hit .292/.382/.354 in his first 14 games, but his power was gone. He went more than 50 plate appearances before collecting his first extra base hit. He had a good week in which he tallied four extra base hits (two doubles and a pair of homers) but followed that by going hitless in his next 11 plate appearances. That got him demoted to Omaha.

Predictably, the Royals came under fire for seemingly manipulating Gordon’s service time. He’s in his third full season, but if he stays in Triple-A for more than 20 days, he will fall short of three years of service time, which will delay his free agency by a year. Perhaps it was sheer coincidence that the O-Royals had exactly 20 days left in their season. When Gordon was optioned, Royals general manager Dayton Moore said. "He'll go down there until the Triple-A season is completed.”

Then, when everyone who could count figured what that meant for Gordon, Moore quickly backtracked:

“Of course there’s that chance (that Gordon could return before Omaha’s season ends on Sept. 7). We’ll evaluate it. I don’t put any timelines on when a player is going to return when they get sent down. Never have.”

Next year, Gordon will be 26 and entering what should be the prime of his career. Three seasons into his career and he’s now as far from being the Sure Thing as a player can get. He's in Triple-A and fighting for his career.

Chris Iannetta - The Quick Study

Iannetta broke camp with the Rockies to begin the ’07 season but immediately struggled. The Quick Study got off to a slow start, hitting .158/.327/.184 in April—he had just one extra base hit (a double) in 49 plate appearances, but eight walks—and never found his footing. He was hitting .179/.300/.285 in 181 plate appearances, when Colorado sent him to Triple-A on Aug. 6. While in Colorado Springs, Iannetta played every day and found his stroke (although his power was still missing), batting .296/.397/.407.

Iannetta had what many considered to be a breakthrough year last summer when he hit .264/.390/.505. While the plate discipline was always present, even through his struggles in his rookie campaign, the Rockies were undoubtedly encouraged by the rediscovery of his power. His 18 home runs were the fifth highest total among backstops last year and his OPS+ of 127 also ranked fifth.

This season has been a letdown; Iannetta’s numbers have tumbled across the board. Currently at .221/.332/.433, he’s become a victim of a lower line drive rate (he’s hitting them roughly 15 percent of the time), which has likely contributed to a meager .237 BABIP. It certainly didn’t help that he spent time on the DL with a hamstring strain.

What’s also hampering Iannetta is a creeping fly ball rate that is certainly suppressing his BABIP.

 
            Year     AB/SO     AB/HR     GB/FB     BABIP
             2007      3.4       49.3      0.71      .285
             2008      3.6       18.5      0.61      .311
             2009      3.8       19.0      0.50      .239

Yes, he’s taken a step back this year, but if you’re looking for a consolation, the fact he’s held onto his power gains should give you reason for optimism. There’s only one Joe Mauer. But if you can’t have him, Iannetta isn’t a bad option.

Dustin Pedroia - The Little Big Man

Easily, Pedroia has been the most successful player on this list. He hit .317/.380/.442 as a 23-yea- old rookie and won the AL Rookie of the Year award. As a sophomore, Pedroia posted a line of .326/.376/.493 and won the AL MVP.

Whatever you think of the awards and the voters, you can’t deny Pedroia put up solid numbers in his first two seasons in the big leagues. He dashed out of the starting blocks this year, hitting .341/.429/.443 through May 26. Then, he slumped, hitting just .214/.279/.293 over his next 33 games which dropped his overall numbers to .285/.365/.377. Since then, he’s steadied himself and has hit .329/.393/.582.

He has the proclivity to be streaky, but his hot streaks are far longer than his cold streaks.

Stud.

Chris Young - The Five Tools Guy

"I would love to be a 30-30 man, but I have to keep working."

With 32 home runs and 27 steals, he sure came close to 30-30 in his rookie season. Perhaps there was some consolation with the fact he was the first rookie to post a 30-25 season. The power and speed counting numbers helped cover a less than stellar .237/.295/.467 offensive line.

Last year, he gained 20 points in OBP—which was a positive development—but hit 10 fewer home runs despite having 50 more plate appearances. In his three years, there’s a definite power trend for Young. And it’s not a good one.

             Year      XBH%      ISO      AB/HR     GB/FB
             2007     10.3%      .230      17.8      0.59
             2008     10.2%      .195      28.4      0.61
             2009      9.3%      .165      45.0      0.35

Young is an extreme fly ball hitter, so his average will always be low. For a player of his skill set to be successful, he has to stay patient at the plate and hit with power. In three years in the majors, he’s consistently found difficulty in reaching base. He owns a career OPB of .304. That’s despite a walk rate of 8.8 percent. The fly balls are just killing him. With his current totals (45 walks and a .297 OBP) Young finds himself on a very short list of players who take walks, yet fail to get on base consistently. Since 2000, 11 players have walked more than 45 times while posting a sub-.300 OBP:

               Name        Year       BB       OBP
          Scott Brosius    2000       45       .299
          Cristian Guzma   2000       46       .299
          Terrence Long    2002       48       .298
          Alex Gonzalez    2003       47       .295
          Jose Hernandez   2003       46       .287
           Mike Lowell     2005       46       .298
            Ray Durham     2007       53       .295
            Julio Lugo     2007       48       .294
            Nick Punto     2007       55       .291
          Richie Sexson    2007       51       .295
           Bobby Crosby    2008       47       .296
           Chris Young     2009       45       .297

The Diamondbacks optioned Young to Triple-A Reno at the beginning of the month. Many of the things the Royals said about Gordon, the Diamondbacks said about Young. He needed to “clear his head” and “rebuild his swing and approach.”

In the short time he’s been in the minors, it seems to be working. In 49 plate appearances, he’s hitting .333/.429/.524. Undoubtedly, he’ll be back with the team in September. Perhaps whatever he’s doing in Triple-A will stick and he’ll be able to boost his OBP and remove his name from the above list.

Phil Hughes - The Pocket Rocket

“Baseball is always going to be the thing that drives me. I want to be the best there is.”

2008 was a wasted year for Hughes. He opened the year in the Yankees rotation, but landed on the DL with a fractured rib at the end of April. If it hadn’t been the DL, he was likely going to be out of the rotation anyway. Through his first six starts, he had a 9.00 ERA with 13 walks and 13 strikeouts in just 22 innings.

Hughes opened this year back in Triple-A, but was up in the majors before the end of April when Chien-Ming Wang hit the disabled list. Again, he was roughed up in several of his starts, although he did throw in a pair of excellent performances. However, when Wang was deemed ready to return to the rotation, Hughes was sent to the bullpen. Sometimes, the minor moves are the ones that pay the largest dividends.

Since moving to the bullpen at the beginning of June, Hughes has been unhittable. Opposing hitters are managing just a .175/.235/.222 line against him in just under 36 innings of relief work. He’s now become Joe Girardi’s prime set-up option. With good reason: In 28 relief appearances he owns a 1.26 ERA and 45 strikeouts with 10 walks. There was talk of shifting him back to the rotation when Wang again went down with injury, but the Yankees wisely decided to keep him in the bullpen.

             Role       IP       ERA       SO/9      BB/9      HR/9     SO/BB     OPP BA   OPP OPS
          As starter  141.1      5.22      7.1       3.8       1.1       1.9       .265      .778
          As reliever  35.2      1.26      11.4      2.5       0.3       4.5       .175      .458

Sure it’s a small sample size, but it’s clear that Hughes is doing much better as a reliever. Despite his recent successes, it would be criminal to keep Hughes in the bullpen beyond this season. This is all part of the process of learning how to pitch and Hughes has demonstrated over his last 35 innings that he does have what it takes to get big league hitters out on a consistent basis. The Yankees have the luxury of a comfortable lead in the standings, so they can give their 23-year-old pitcher the opportunity to refine his craft in the bullpen.

The rotation remains Hughes’ future—he should be there next year—but for now he’s doing just fine in the bullpen.

Homer Bailey - The Good Ol' Boy

After posting a 2.31 ERA in 10 Triple-A starts, Bailey was promoted to Cincinnati in June of 2007. He made six starts for the Reds and was hammered in four of them. By the time he was returned to Nashville, Bailey had worked 28 major league innings with 21 walks and 15 strikeouts and an unseemly 6.99 ERA. The fastball that ranged from 92 to 98 mph in the minors vanished, replaced by one that averaged 92 mph.

Control always has been an issue for Bailey. Here are his minor league walk rates:

2005: 5.4 BB/9 in Single-A
2006: 3.2 BB/9 between Hi-A and Double-A
2007: 4.3 BB/9 in Triple-A
2008: 3.7 BB/9 in Triple-A
2009: 2.7 BB/9 in Triple-A

He managed to cut the walk rate that ballooned when he started Triple-A back in ’07, but he hasn’t been able to translate that reduction to the majors. Here are Bailey’s major league walk rates:

2007: 5.6 BB/9
2008: 4.5 BB/9
2009: 4.6 BB/9

This year, Bailey has a 6.82 ERA in 62 innings of work and has allowed 10 home runs. While his fastball has found its giddyup (it’s averaging 94 mph this summer in the majors), he has scrapped his change-up. He’s now relying almost exclusively on his fastball and curve. According to PITCHf/x, in his start against the Pirates on Aug. 23, Bailey threw 114 pitches—90 fastballs, 21 curves and just three change-ups.

If he’s going to feature only two pitches while fighting through bouts of wildness, you have to wonder if a trip to the bullpen is in his future. It worked for Hughes, maybe it will do the same for Bailey.

Matt Garza - The Gas Can

Garza was a Twin when profiled and after posting a 3.69 ERA in 83 innings in 2007, he was dealt to Tampa Bay as the key guy (along with Jason Bartlett) for the Rays in the Delmon Young deal. With starting pitching at a premium, it’s easy to declare the Rays winners in this deal.

  Year      ERA       H/9       SO/9      BB/9     OPP BA
   2006      3.69      10.4      7.3       3.5       .294
   2007      3.70      8.3       6.2       2.9       .245
   2008      3.74      7.8       8.2       3.5       .232

Control has been an issue with Garza ever since he arrived in the majors. This year, he’s regressed a bit and his 3.5 BB/9 is among the highest in the league among qualified starting pitchers. However, he’s been able to offset damage from the bases on balls by being extremely difficult to hit. His 7.6 H/9 and opponents' batting average of .232 certainly help prevent the big inning.

When SI profiled Garza, it mentioned his power (hence, the “Gas” reference in the title.) Garza had to dial back some on his velocity to straighten out command issues, but he’s still bringing the heat. This year his average fastball is 93 mph and he’s throwing the pitch more than 70 percent of the time. A strong curve and slider give Garza a full arsenal of pitches. While he may never be a top of the rotation kind of guy, he’s settled comfortably into the role of No. 2.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - The History Maker

SI hung the “History” moniker on Kouzmanoff because he was the first player to hit a grand slam on the first pitch he saw in the majors, against Edinson Volquez while playing for the Indians in September of 2006.. Undeniably, it was a great start for the young third baseman. However since then, he hasn’t made so much history.

Since his rookie season, his numbers have been in decline.

             Year       PA        BA       OBP       SLG       XBH%      SO%       BB%       WAR
             2007      534       .275      .329      .457      9.4%     17.6%      6.0%      2.6
             2008      668       .260      .299      .433      8.7%     20.8%      3.4%      2.7
             2009      503       .256      .298      .419      8.6%     19.1%      4.0%      1.9

His production puts him in the lower half of all third basemen, and that's mainly thanks to his defense which has improved. Here's his UZR/150 over the last three years:

2007: -2.3
2008: 3.1
2009: 4.2

In three years with the Padres, Kouzmanoff has become a steady, if unspectacular performer. That's not a bad thing... But it's not good, either.

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Cycling up

Craig Brown — 2009-08-07T05:03:15+00:00

Since 1901, there have been 245 cycles recorded in the major leagues. That means this event of hitting symmetry—single, double, triple, homer by one hitter in the same game—occurs with less frequency than a no-hitter. Some teams have had more than their share where others have gone decades between them. And some teams have never had one happen, ever.

Here's a look at all 30 teams and their most recent cycles or near-cycles.

Atlanta Braves
Mark Kotsay - 8/14/08 vs. CHC

It doesn’t have anything to do with Kotsay, but the Braves had the longest stretch between cycles in baseball history. Bill Collins collected a cycle in 1910, then the Braves went 77 years (and two moves) before Albert Hall got them off the cycle duck in 1987.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Stephen Drew - 9/1/08 vs. STL

Drew capped his cycle with a ground rule double in the seventh and added another in the eighth in collecting the only five-hit game of his career.

Baltimore Orioles
Aubrey Huff - 6/30/07 vs. LAA

The triple Huff collected for his cycle was the 1,000th hit of his career.

Prior to Huff, the two previous Baltimore Orioles to hit for the cycle were Cal Ripken, Jr. (5/6/84) and Brooks Robinson (7/15/60).

Boston Red Sox
John Valentin - 6/6/96 vs. CHW

Fans who were at this game at Fenway saw a pair of rare feats. Not only did Valentin hit for the cycle, the White Sox turned a triple play. After Valentin hit a home run in the bottom of the first, White Sox starter Joe Magrane walked Mo Vaughn and Jose Canseco to bring up Tim Naehring. Naehring drilled a grounder to third baseman Robin Ventura, who started the 5-4-3 triple play. Were there three slower base runners in 1996 than Vaughn, Canseco and Naehring?

Red Sox hitters have completed the cycle 19 times, most in the American League. Yet they haven’t had one in more than 13 years.

Chicago Cubs
Mark Grace - 5/9/93 vs. SDP

Lacking power and speed, Grace still managed to hit a triple and a home run in the same game five times in his career. This is despite averaging three triples and 12 home runs a season over his 16-year career. But in four of his five games, the triple and home run were his only hits.

Grace’s cycle was notable because he needed some help from his teammates. With the single, double and triple out of the way, he was due up fifth in the bottom of the ninth. Catcher Rick Wilkins led off with a single, but the next two hitters made outs. With Grace on deck, Luis Vizcaino grounded a single up the middle, setting the stage for Grace’s place in baseball history. His three-run home run completed the cycle and cut the Padres lead to 5-4, which was the final score.

Chicago White Sox
Jose Valentin - 4/27/00 vs. BAL

A charter member of the American League, the White Sox have only five cycles in team history.

Valentin’s cycle was a so-called “natural” cycle in that his hits came in order. He did throw in a strikeout between his triple and home run, though.

Cincinnati Reds
Eric Davis - 6/2/89 vs SDP

Each one of Davis’ four hits plated a run in a 9-4 win over the Padres, making him the first Red since Frank Robinson in 1959 to hit for the cycle.

Cleveland Indians
Travis Hafner - 8/14/03 @ MIN

Hafner isn’t exactly synonymous with speed, but he used his wheels to collect his cycle at the Metrodome. He followed his second inning home run by legging out a double to shallow center field on a slow ground ball that skidded through the middle of the infield. In his next at-bat, he hit a tapper in front of the plate that he legged out for an infield single. Then, in his final plate appearance of the evening, needing a triple, he skied a fly ball over the head of the Twins center fielder Torii Hunter that bounced against the wall.

Hafner became the first Indian since Andre Thornton in 1978 to hit for the cycle.

Colorado Rockies
Mike Lansing - 6/18/00 vs ARI

A typical Coors Field affair from 2000 saw Lansing complete his cycle by the fourth inning. By that time, the Rockies were leading 14-1. Somehow, he made it to the plate only one more time all afternoon, striking out swinging in the seventh.

Detroit Tigers
Carlos Guillen - 8/1/06 @ TB

Needing a double to complete his cycle, Guillen took a chance on a liner to center and went for it, barely reaching the bag ahead of the throw.

Guillen’s cycle was a team affair in that he used Dmitri Young’s bat for his triple and home run and his own for the single and double. He used Magglio Ordonez’s bat for a lineout in the fourth.

Florida Marlins
Never had a cycle

Josh Willingham probably has come the closest, needing just a single in his final at-bat in a game against the Phillies in 2007. He struck out.

In 2002, Juan Encarnacion hit in the ninth inning of a game against the Expos needing a double for the cycle. He hit a home run.

Houston Astros
Luke Scott - 7/28/06 vs. ARI

If Valentin’s cycle for the White Sox was considered a “natural” because his hits came in order, then Scott’s was a “reverse” cycle. Scott grounded out to open his game and then homered, tripled and doubled before hitting in the ninth. He grounded out, but was the benficiary of extra innings, collecting his single in the 11th.

Kansas City Royals
George Brett - 7/25/90 @ TOR

Brett struggled early in 1990 and entered July hitting .256/.330/.324. In the game in which he hit for the cycle, he pushed his batting average above .300 for the first time all season. That July, he hit .388/.442/.716.

He finished 1990 hitting .329/.387/.515, collecting his third batting title.

The Royals' cycle drought is the longest in the American League. Figures.

Los Angeles Angels
Chone Figgins - 9/16/06 @ TEX

Figgins’ cycle came the hard way. For starters, he was hitting ninth. Since 1954, there have been 141 cycles, but only three of them were completed by hitters batting ninth. Plus, Figgins needed a triple in his final plate appearance to finish the feat. And it came in the ninth inning.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Orlando Hudson - 4/13/09 vs. SFG

Entering this season, the Dodgers had gone the longest of any team without a cycle. The last time it had happened for the Dodgers was when Wes Parker accomplished the feat back in 1970. Before Parker, the previous cycle was hit by Gil Hodges when the Dodgers were still in Brooklyn, in 1949. Hudson completed the circuit in the Dodgers' 2009 home opener—his first home game for his new club.

Hudson’s cycle was only the second in Dodger Stadium history. The first cycle hit there didn’t even include the Dodgers. It was collected by Jim Fregosi for the California Angels in 1964 when the two LA teams shared the stadium.

Milwaukee Brewers
Chad Moeller - 4/27/04 vs. CIN

Moeller went four for five with four RBI, but his most important plate appearance was when he reached on an error with two out in the bottom of the ninth. That was a good thing, because it cut the Reds lead to 8-7. The next batter, pinch hitter Bill Hall, clubbed the game-winning home run.

Milwaukee, home to Harley Davidson, had a lon- running promotion that offered a motorcycle to a Brewer who hit for the cycle. Too bad for Moeller, that promotion ended in 2003. His team got him a bicycle instead.

Minnesota Twins
Michael Cuddyer - 5/22/09 vs. MIL and Jason Kubel - 4/17/09 vs. LAA

The Twins are the first team since the 2003 Montreal Expos' (Vladimir Guerrero and Brad Wilkerson) to have a pair of cycles in a single season. It’s a feat that has been accomplished 12 times since 1901 and just three times since 1979. Dante Bichette and Neifi Perez went for the cycle for the 1998 Colorado Rockies and Frank White and George Brett accomplished the same for the 1979 Kansas City Royals.

Kubel completed his cycle by hitting a grand slam in the eighth. It was the seventh time in that a cycle included a grand slam and the first since Miguel Tejada did it for Oakland in 2001.

New York Mets
Jose Reyes - 6/21/06 vs CIN

Reyes was scorching in mid-June in 2006. His cycle marked his ninth game in a row with a hit, a streak he would extend to 13 games—his longest hitting streak of the season. During that time, he hit .561/.583/.912 in 60 plate appearances.

Reyes’ cycle was overshadowed by a bullpen meltdown that saw Billy Wagner cough up a 5-4 lead in a 6-5 Mets loss. Does everything in Queens end with the bullpen melting down?

New York Yankees
Melky Cabrera - 8/2/09 @ CHW

Before Cabrera, the most recent Yankee cycle came off the bat of Tony Fernandez in 1995. How long ago was that? Since then, the Yankees have won four World Series titles and had two pitchers throw perfect games.

When Fernandez hit for the cycle, Derek Jeter had 11 career hits. When Cabrera hit for the cycle, Jeter was playing in his 2,084th game, tying Babe Ruth for the fourth most games played as a Yankee.

Oakland Athletics
Mark Ellis - 6/4/07 vs. BOS

Ellis’ cycle comes with an asterisk in that he needed extra innings to accomplish the feat. His final plate appearance of the evening came in the bottom of the 10th, with Ellis needing a single. The cycle capped an epic week for the A’s second baseman: His wife had given birth to their first child just a few days earlier.

Philadelphia Phillies
David Bell - 6/28/04 vs MON

Bell hit a triple to complete his cycle, but Expos manager Frank Robinson argued for fan interference, claiming a spectator handled the ball in play.

Bell’s grandfather, Gus Bell, hit for the cycle on June 4, 1951, making them the only grandfather-grandson tandem to have accomplished this feat. David’s father, Buddy Bell, never hit for the cycle, although with 2,514 hits in his career, he has more than anyone in the Bell clan. Buddy was a double short on three occasions, a triple short seven times and missing the home run seven times.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Daryle Ward - 5/27/04 @ STL

When Ward hit for the cycle against the Cardinals, he joined his father Gary Ward in becoming the first father-son tandem to hit for the cycle.

Daryle Ward is probably the most unlikely candidate to hit for the cycle we will come across in this article. Not exactly fleet of foot, he had just five triples in his 11-year major league career. His triple in this game was his first since 2000. Reggie Sanders, getting a late jump on Ward’s line drive to right field, had the ball glance off his glove as he was laying out for the catch. Ward completed his cycle with a chopper over a drawn-in infield in the eighth.

St. Louis Cardinals
Mark Grudzielanek - 4/27/05

The list of Cardinals who have hit for the cycle is amazing. It’s a who’s who of Cardinal baseball. From 1927 to 1984, Jim Bottomley, Chick Hafey, Pepper Martin, Joe Medwick, Johnny Mize, Stan Musial, Bill White, Ken Boyer, Joe Torre, Lou Brock and Willie McGee all hit for the cycle.

Since 1991, it’s been Ray Lankford, John Mabry and now Grudzielanek. Not to take anything away from these players, but they’re lacking the star quality of their predecessors.

When’s Albert Pujols going to get his?

San Diego Padres
Never had a cycle

The Padres are also one of four teams (Mets, Rays, Rockies) without a no-hitter. Five players have hit for the cycle against the Padres. They’ve been no-hit seven times.

San Francisco Giants
Fred Lewis - 5/13/07 @ COL

Lewis opened the 2007 season in Triple-A Fresno before getting the call to the majors when Dave Roberts went down with an elbow injury. In just his third game following his promotion, Lewis hit for the cycle.

Entering the seventh inning, needing just a single to finish his cycle, Lewis did it— twice. He led off the inning with a single on a line drive to right-center. Then, the Giants batted around and Lewis came up again in the seventh and delivered another single. He finished with five hits in six at-bats.

Seattle Mariners
Adrian Beltre - 9/1/08 @ TEX

Beltre’s first (and only) triple of the 2008 season capped his cycle against the Rangers.

Tampa Bay Rays
Never had a cycle

Perhaps the closest Ray was Eric Hinske in a game against the Blue Jays on April 22, 2008. Hinske doubled, tripled and homered in his first three plate appearances. Needing just a single to complete the cycle, Hinske whiffed in the bottom of the eighth.

Texas Rangers
Ian Kinsler - 4/15/09 vs. BAL

Kinsler needed only six innings to polish off his cycle earlier this year. He had two more plate appearances after his accomplishment and finished his day a perfect six for six with five runs scored.

Toronto Blue Jays
Jeff Frye - 8/17/01 vs. TEX

Like Figgins', Frye’s cycle came from the number nine spot in the batting order. That was Frye’s final season in the majors, a year where he hit six doubles, a triple and two home runs in 194 plate appearances—an extra base hit rate of 4.6 percent. Of course, three of those nine extra base hits came in the same game.

After his cycle, Frye came to the plate only 18 more times in his career, collecting five singles.

Washington Nationals
Cristian Guzman - 8/28/08 vs. LAD

More impressive than the triple that sealed Guzman’s cycle in the eighth inning was the fact that Aaron Boone scored from first on the play.

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Working the count

Craig Brown — 2009-07-24T05:05:15+00:00

Hitters will tell you that it helps when the count is in their favor. And nothing favors the hitter like a 3-0 count. The average batter sees roughly 31 3-0 counts in a season, which works out to around five percent of all plate appearances.

And once they get to that point, batters own a huge advantage. This year in the American League, hitters have posted a .748 OBP after pushing the count to 3-0. Their National League counterparts are even more successful with a .761 OBP. Plate discipline, combined with a little patience early in an at-bat, pays.

Here’s a look at four players (two from each league) who are among the best at jumping way ahead in the count, and what happens once they get there.

Ben Zobrist

The Zorilla is the only player not named Albert Pujols who is working pitchers for a 3-0 count at least 10 percent of the time. In 324 plate appearances this year, Zobrist has seen a 3-0 count 31 times.

Here’s the great thing about Zobrist in a 3-0 count: In those 31 appearances, Zobrist hasn’t swung the bat once. Not once.

Of those 31 3-0 counts, Zobrist has seen ball four 16 times (four of those have been intentional.) If he doesn’t walk on the fourth pitch, the odds he sees a pitch outside the zone are still in his favor. Overall, he’s walked 24 times after pushing the count to 3-0. Of the six times he’s put the ball in play, he’s collected three hits (he’s struck out once after moving ahead 3-0). Overall, Zobrist has a line of .429/.871/.857 after a 3-0 count. And since he’s seeing more 3-0 counts than any player in the AL, it’s not difficult to figure out how he’s been so successful this year.

After being a fringe player his first three seasons for the Rays, Zobrist has become one of the best hitters on the club.

Here's a look at how Zobrist has evolved by looking at his pitches per plate appearance over the years:
2006 - 3.68
2007 - 3.65
2008 - 3.77
2009 - 4.12

Zobrist is swinging at just 36 percent of all pitches, which makes him one of the more selective hitters in the game. Only five hitters swing at a fewer percentage. One of them is featured next...

Bobby Abreu & David Wright

While you can bet the farm that Zobrist will keep the bat on his shoulders with a 3-0 count, likewise you can bank on Abreu and Wright to do the same. Both players have been at the plate with a 3-0 count 32 times and both have kept their bat on their shoulder for the fourth pitch of their at-bat every single time.

Abreu, like Zobrist, is stingy with his swings. This year, he’s offering at just 34 percent of all pitches, which is the second lowest rate in the game. (Luis Castillo leads baseball at 31 percent.)

And when the count tilts in his favor at 3-0, you have a better chance at winning the lottery than seeing Abreu swing the bat. Abreu hasn’t offered at a 3-0 pitch since 2007. Going back to 2003, Abreu has faced a 3-0 count 372 times and has swung at the next pitch exactly twice. Twice! It’s no wonder that over that time, Abreu has posted a .401 OBP, which is the sixth best rate in baseball.

This season, Abreu is hitting .167/.844/.333 following a 3-0 count.

What’s interesting is despite being at different places in their careers, Wright and Abreu are having remarkably similar seasons.

              PA        BA       OBP       SLG       OPS+      SO%       BB%       XBH%
  Abreu      383       .305      .397      .442      119      15.7%     13.6%      7.6%
  Wright     406       .316      .404      .447      127      22.9%     12.6%      8.1%

While Wright is nine years younger than Abreu, the Mets third baseman is following Abreu’s lead at laying off the 3-0 pitch. Over the last two seasons, Wright has offered at a 3-0 pitch once in 72 plate appearances—and he fouled it off.

Where Abreu and Wright are having similar seasons, they diverge after pushing the count to 3-0. Abreu has walked in 26 of his 32 plate appearances while Wright has walked just 21 times. His .719 OBP is certainly sharp, but it’s nowhere near the heights reached by the other hitters featured in this article.

What’s interesting is that Wright, after jumping out to a 3-0 lead in the count, has struck out four times. It seems that if he doesn’t take pitch number four for a ball (and draws a walk) he expands his strike zone and allows the pitcher to level the playing field. He’s hitting .182/.719/.182 after working the count to 3-0. It's not surprising that his overall strikeout rate far outpaces Abreu's. While the Angels outfielder is stingy with his swings, Wright is offering at 42 percent of all pitches. Still below average, but well off Abreu's rate.

Albert Pujols

It’s not surprising the best (and most feared) hitter in baseball has seen more 3-0 counts than anyone in the game. Pitchers have gone to 3-0 against Pujols 69 times this year, which works out to about 17 percent of all his plate appearances. Obviously, a number of those counts are the result of pitchers who are avoiding confrontation and intentionally walking the Cardinals slugger. He’s been given a free pass on purpose 33 times, so if we remove those, Pujols has faced 36 “live” 3-0 counts.

Of those appearances, he’s swung at a 3-0 pitch 14 times, making contact (and resolving the at-bat) in seven instances. There are a ton of adjectives you can apply to Pujols. I’m not sure “patient” is one of them. For the season, he’s seeing 3.74 pitches per plate appearance, which ranks him 64th among qualifying hitters in the NL. Yes, he leads the league in walks (77), but if you remove the intentional walks, he’s down to 40.

That’s not a knock on Pujols. The man is clearly the best hitter in baseball. If it appears he’s not patient, that because he’s too busy knocking the cover off the ball instead of working the count. And that ain’t a problem.

Overall, if you give Pujols a 3-0 advantage, he’s going to hurt you. Following a 3-0 count, he’s hitting .286/.855/.929.

Yet another reason he’s the best hitter in baseball.

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Joel Pineiro’s scorched-earth policy

Craig Brown — 2009-06-26T05:03:15+00:00

By now you’ve heard about Joel Pineiro’s gem he hurled against the New York Mets on Tuesday night at Citi Field in Queens. In his second complete game shutout of the season, (his first coming on May 19 against the Cubs) Pineiro threw just 100 pitches in tossing a ground ball tour-de-force.

Pineiro didn't set any records, although it was the second most GB outs recorded by a starter since Brandon Webb had 23 in 2003 in a game against the Detroit Tigers. That was against a Tigers team that would hit .240/.300/.375, finishing last in the AL in all categories en route to 119 losses.

The Mets, on the other hand, (despite the injuries to Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado) have a decent offense. As a team they’re hitting .280 with a .357 OBP, both marks tops in the NL. They’re scoring 4.7 runs per game, which is second in the league. Their power is down—they’re slugging just .398 since the beginning of June—but with a .277 team average and .342 OBP during that time, they’re still creating opportunities. They’re just having difficulty cashing those opportunities in for runs. (Like I have to point this out to Mets fans.)

So while the Mets of 2009 clearly swing the bats better than the Tigers of 2003, that doesn't mean they're not prone to the occasional clunker at the plate. However, it would be wrong to pin the blame on the outcome of this particular game entirely on their lumber. Pinero located his pitches amazingly well and gave his opposition nothing to hit all evening. It was a perfect storm of a pitcher developing and executing an outstanding game plan, combined with some over-anxious bats. The result wasn’t a perfect game… but it was close.

Let's look at the game as it developed.

Innings 1-3

Pineiro started strong, facing six Mets and getting six ground ball outs in the first two innings. Then, a monsoon interrupted play for about an hour with the Cardinals hitting in the top of the third. Pineiro had thrown only 22 pitches to that point, so it would seem there was never any doubt that Tony LaRussa would bring him back to the mound once the game resumed.

Pineiro isn’t a hard thrower by any stretch of the imagination. As David Golebiewski pointed out at FanGraphs, he’s sacrificed speed for a more pronounced break on his sinking fastball. This year he’s throwing his fastball at an average speed of 88.5 mph, down from the 90.8 mph he threw back in 2007. Not only does he gain movement via his reduction in velocity, it makes him a great candidate to sit out a long rain delay (or inning) and pick up right where he left off.

(His pitch speed graph from his start is courtesy BrooksBaseball.net. The red line at his 23rd pitch of the evening represents his return to the mound after the rain delay.)

The fact that the Mets came up swinging in the bottom of the third certainly helped. Pineiro, despite giving up a single to Luis Castillo (the hardest-hit ground ball to this point), needed only eight pitches to complete the inning.

Below is a graphical representation of where Cardinals fielders picked up the batted ball in each of the first three innings. The most difficult play was the grounder David Murphy hit to shortstop Brendan Ryan, who had to charge the ball hit slightly to his right and make a strong throw to retire the Mets first baseman. The ground ball to center in the third inning was the Castillo five-hopper back up the middle. The ground ball off the mound was the Livan Hernandez sacrifice bunt to push Castillo to second following his single.

Through three innings, Pineiro faced 10 hitters and all 10 put the ball on the ground.

Innings 4-6

In the bottom of the fourth, Pineiro induced only two ground balls because he recorded the second out of the inning when David Wright swung and missed an 0-2 change-up that fell out of the strike zone. It was one of only two times all evening a Mets batter swung and missed a Pineiro pitch. Read that again. Of the 100 pitches Pineiro threw in this game, only twice did the Mets completely miss when swinging the bat. Broken down even further, Pineiro threw 62 strikes. Of those, 24 were called strikes by home plate umpire Jerry Meals, 36 were offered at and either fouled off or put into play and then there were those two that were completely missed.

In the fifth inning, the first Mets hitter got the ball in the air. Omir Santos hit a breaking ball that hung in the zone (one of the rare hangers Pineiro threw all night) and lofted a harmless fly to center. The location was key for Pineiro all evening. That’s obvious, but consider that no pitcher is perfect in that he can spot his pitches in the exact location he would like every time the ball leaves his hand. So even on a night when the sinking action on his fastball is working marvelously, there will still be opportunities for the hitters to pounce on a mistake.

Except Pineiro didn’t make a mistake all evening. The pitches he threw outside the strike zone were away from left-handed hitters and down to right-handed hitters, and they were far enough out of the zone that there was no way a hitter could make solid contact. He didn’t leave any pitches in the hitter’s wheelhouse. The chart at left (again, courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net) plots all 100 of Pineiro's pitches. It illustrates how well he was locating all evening. The pitches he left out of the strike zone (whether on purpose or not) were in such that if the Mets hitters were swinging (and they were swinging) there was no way they were going to make solid contact. Pineiro was pitching on his terms all night long.

Pineiro faltered a bit in the sixth, walking Castillo on six pitches to lead off the inning. Not only was it Pineiro’s first walk of the night, it was the first time he went to a three-ball count. When Mets manager Jerry Manuel decided to hit-and-run with his pitcher at the plate, Hernandez swung and missed (there’s the only other miss) on a pitch down in the zone and Castillo was thrown out by Yadier Molina. The fly out behind second base was on another pitch that was low, but Alex Cora dropped the bat head and managed a feeble pop.

Through six innings, Pineiro had faced 19 hitters, thrown 61 pitches and retired 14 on ground balls.

Innings 7-9

One pitch that got away from Pineiro was an 86 mph fastball that drilled Wright in the shoulder with one out in the seventh. Then he threw two almost identical fastballs to Fernando Tatis to get a double play and got out of the inning by throwing only eight pitches. That was tied for his second most effective inning of the night behind the seven-pitch effort in the fourth.

The hardest-hit ball of the evening for the Mets came in the ninth inning with one out when pinch-hitter Jeremy Reed lined a change-up into center field. He advanced to second on a weak Cora ground out and was stranded when Murphy ended the game with… another ground out.

When a pitcher is inducing a high rate of ground balls, it’s obviously imperative that he have a stout defense backing him up on the infield. The Cardinals' team UZR is just 1.1, which makes their team defense decidedly average. On the infield, the great Albert Pujols is masterful with the glove at first. Up the middle Skip Schumaker is probably a little below average at second but Ryan covers more than his share of ground at short. Then you have Khalil Green, a decidedly average shortstop who was making only the fifth start of his major league career at third. The defense might have been a factor if any Met had been able to square up and drive the ball. Instead, almost all the ground outs were four-hoppers, hit within one or two steps of where the fielders were positioned, that could only be considered routine.

Before this yea,r if you had 10 guesses as to who would throw 20 or more ground ball outs in a game, there’s no way you would have chosen Pineiro. In fact, he’s always been more of a flyball pitcher, although barely. While he’s never trended more to the groundball side, his career 0.89 GB/FB ratio reveals a fairly even split. His 0.99 GB/FB ratio from 2007 was the closest he’s ever come to the groundball side in his nine previous seasons. This year however, that’s all changed. After Tuesday’s gem, his ratio currently stands at 1.59. And his 2.3 ground out to fly out ratio is likewise the highest of his career. Here's how Pineiro has evolved over the last three seasons:

   Year      SO%       BB%       XBH%     GB/FB     AO/FO   Contact %
   2007      14.3      6.2       10.7      0.99      1.32       84
   2008      12.6      5.4       11.5      0.92      1.69       84
   2009      10.7      3.2       8.3       1.59      2.31       87

  Career     14.7       7        8.6       0.89      1.27       83

It would seem he's mastered the art of the sinking fastball and is allowing hitters to make contact, put the ball on the ground and basically get themselves out. He's striking out hitters at a career low rate, yet his walk rate is at a career low as well. However his 3.33 K/BB ratio is the best of his career. His infield defense isn't spectacular, but it's not going to cost him many runs either. He's kept hitters off balance all season, allowing just two home runs in 92 innings on the way to a 3.83 xFIP, which ranks him 11th among NL starters.

It's taken Pineiro 10 years, but it looks like he's discovered a formula for success. Defying the cliche, I guess you can teach an old pitcher new tricks.

Pineiro's June 23 start by the numbers

29 Batters faced
22 Ground balls
3 Fly balls
1 Line drive
1 Strikeout
1 Walk
1 HBP
2 Swinging strikes
2 Singles
3 3-ball counts
4 The number of pitches thrown to Fernando Tatis in three plate appearances.

83 Game Score

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See the ball, hit the ball

Craig Brown — 2009-06-12T05:01:15+00:00

At this time last year, I looked at a group of players who were adept at putting the ball in play, forcing the defense to work for the out. It was an interesting mix that yielded a catcher (Bengie Molina), a light hitting outfielder who is always putting the ball in play (Juan Pierre) and a pair of shortstops (Cristian Guzman and Yuniesky Betancourt.)

Do any of the above four make a return engagement? Using the reverse Three True Outcomes, read on for the 2009 version of the top four players at putting the ball in play this year.

Placido Polanco: 1 HR, 14 BB, 16 SO in 244 plate appearances
True Outcome Percentage: 12.7 percent

Although he didn’t make the list at this time last season, Polanco’s ability to make contact at such a high rate means he’s a mainstay on lists like these. He makes contact when he swings at a ball in the strike zone an astonishing 98 percent of the time. Wow. Overall, he’s swung and missed on just 5 percent of all strikes he’s seen this year.

Now if he could only get some of that contact to fall. His BABIP is .263 which is the lowest rate of his career.

What made Polanco a successful hitter in the past was the fact he could handle falling behind in the count. For his career, he’s hit .283/.313/.375 after falling behind with a first pitch strike. This season, he sees a first pitch strike around 57 percent of the time which is slightly better than league average, but in those 95 plate appearances that start with a strike, he’s hitting a meager .193/.253/.284. That’s well off his career numbers and a huge change from last year’s .301/.323/.383 he hit following a 0-1 count.

The silver lining is, if pitchers fall behind, watch out. In 87 plate appearances this season where he’s started with ball one, Polanco is hitting .342/.391/.456. It appears to be feast or famine for Polanco.

Yuniesky Betancourt: 2 HR, 8 BB, 14 SO in 196 plate appearances
True Outcome Percentage: 12.2 percent

Betancourt is the only repeat player from last summer’s list. This time last year, he was the contact leader, putting the ball in play 90.3 percent of the time. That was on the strength of just four walks (along with 16 strikeouts and three home runs) in his first 236 plate appearances.

This season, not much has changed as far as the amount of contact. Rather the change has come in the type of contact.

Simply put, Betancourt has become a fly ball hitter this year. His 0.9 GB/FB ratio is the most fly ball skewed (outside of a 0.82 GB/FB ratio in 211 at-bats as a rookie in 2005) of his career. The increase in fly balls has led to a decrease in batting average; he’s currently hitting just .248. And since base hits is usually the only way for him to actually get on base, the lack of knocks has suppressed his OBP to .277, which would be a career low.

Perhaps it has something to do with his contact rates on balls outside of the zone. Betancourt has always been a free swinger taking a rip at anything close to the strike zone. His career O-Swing percentage (the percentage of balls swung at that are outside the zone) of 30.9 percent attests to this. However this year, he’s actually making contact on a higher percentage of those “bad” swings.

O-Contact %
2007: 68.2%
2008: 77.7%
2009: 85.1%

As his O-Contact rate has increased, his performance has decreased.

2007: .289/.308/.418 OPS+ 93
2008: .279/.300/.392 OPS+ 85
2009: .243/.271/.322 OPS+ 59

Betancourt is going to swing and he’s going to make contact. That’s what he does. With 27 career home runs and a slugging percentage of .394, let’s just say it would behoove Betancourt to change his contact approach and try to keep the ball on the ground. Maybe then he could inch his OBP back to around .300.

Cesar Izturis: 1 HR, 5 BB, 12 SO in 159 plate appearances
True Outcome Percent: 11.3 percent

Setting our minimum plate appearances at 150, Izturis ducks just under the bar to qualify for inclusion.

Izturis is truly a pitcher’s best friend. Nearly 70 percent of all pitches thrown to him are strikes. Seventy percent! That’s because he’s up there swinging, taking a hack at at least half the pitches he sees in an at bat. What makes him different from the others on this list is he will actually take a strike. For the season, he’s kept the bat on his shoulder for 27 percent of the strikes he’s seen.

Izturis won’t be swinging at anything for awhile as he’s out for an unspecified amount of time after undergoing an appendectomy.

Miguel Tejada: 6 HR, 6 BB, 15 SO in 246 plate appearances
True Outcome Percent: 11 percent

This is a huge surprise. Tejada has always had plenty of power (and the walks and strikeouts) to avoid a list like this. To be named here is shocking enough, but at the bottom?

For his career, Tejada’s strikeout rate remains above 13 percent. That’s due to some free swinging at the beginning of his career when he whiffed around 22 percent of the time. After that rocky start, Tejada went to work on improving his contact and subsequently sliced several points off his percentage. The graph from FanGraphs neatly illustrates how he bottomed out in 2003 for the A’s at 10.2 percent and has been - for the most part - holding steady ever since.

This season however, Tejada has cut his strikeouts like never before. Through Wednesday, he’s struck out just 15 times in 230 at bats. At 6.5 percent, he’s whiffing at the lowest rate of his career. And his 15.6 AB/K ratio is the best in the league.

And while he’s not striking out, he’s not taking the free pass, either. Tejada has drawn just six walks (one intentional) in his 242 plate appearances. Patience hasn’t been his strength over his career - his highest walk rate was in 2000 when he drew a career high 66 walks and strolled to first 9.8 percent of the time.

This year, Tejada is swinging as aggressive as ever. He’s seeing just 3.3 pitches per plate appearance - the 12th lowest total among all players with at least 150 plate appearances. He’s hacking right out of the box. Tejada is swinging at the first pitch 27 percent of the time.

What is most intriguing is that a (former?) power hitter like Tejada is anywhere near a list like this. At the bottom is just downright shocking. For the year he’s hit just six home runs and that follows his 2008 season where he left the yard only 13 times, his lowest total since hitting 11 in 365 at-bats in 1998. He went 86 plate appearances this year before he hit his first home run on May 7. He then went on a tear where he hit six (his total for the year) in his next 85 plate appearances, slugging .800. Since then, he’s cooled off a bit. Over his last 27 plate appearances, he hasn’t left the yard and has just one double while slugging a mere .333. It’s his longest homerless stretch since the beginning of the season.

While his home run numbers are down, Tejada’s ISO is up. At .170, it’s at it’s highest level since he was at .211 for the Orioles in 2005. The ISO is so high because he’s hitting doubles like crazy. With 21 on the year, he’s tied for the league lead with Freddy Sanchez and appears poised to take aim at his career high of 50.

When someone like Tejada suddenly makes an appearance on a list like this and is backing it up with an outstanding performance, the question quickly turns from, “How did he get here?” to, “Can he keep going?”

In Tejada’s case his .358 BABIP is certainly lofty, which would point to a return to the mean. His recent performance—he wrapped up a 17 game hitting streak last week (.444/.467/.736) and has hit in his last four contests since taking the collar in that game—points to the tremendous roll he's been on of late. Overall, he's hit in 21 of his last 22 games, a span of .415/.433/.649 over 96 plate appearances.

That's a great run, but he's walked twice since April 21. He's actually reached base more by being hit by a pitch since then, having been plunked three times.

He's certainly performing at a high level and it's been going on for most of the season. But at some point, he'll have to tone things down or his free swinging ways catch up. Pitchers are undoubtedly aware of this. As the season continues, look for Tejada to see fewer strikes, forcing him to be patient. He's been around the block a few times, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts. He's also in the final year of a contract and will almost certainly see his name floated in trade rumors and it would be wise for the Astros to sell high—or as high as they can. On Thursday, he was linked to the Cardinals. It could be an interesting second half.

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