The Hardball Times -- Jeff Moore http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2012 2012-05-26T10:48:15+00:00 The prospect three-day weekend http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-prospect-three-day-weekend3/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-prospect-three-day-weekend3/#When:06:17:15
I looked at some of these earlier in the week, including an absolutely brutal start at the plate for Jose Iglesias, who is hitting .195/.277/.195 on the early season. The bright spot for Iglesias at the plate is...wait, there is no bright spot. He's been awful. He's making Rey Ordonez look like Ozzie Smith, and Ozzie Smith look like Cal Ripken, and...well you get the idea.

The Red Sox almost kept him out of spring training because of his defense, but whoever got the final say on that decision got it right. Iglesias now has a career .546 OPS in 112 games against Triple-A pitching, and it's looking more and more like he's never going to be anywhere close to a productive major league hitter. In fact, it's getting to the point that, he may not ever provide average value as a ballplayer, even if he is in the class of Smith, Ordonez or Omar Vizquel with the glove.

One player who wasn't struggling was the Padres' Casey Kelly, but his numbers are going to stay where they are for a while. Kelly had his right (throwing) elbow examined after he reported soreness in it after his latest start, which is an even bigger shame than usual, given that Kelly was off to a solid start to the season.

Kelly has been included in the discussion of top prospects his entire professional career, despite a lot of non-top prospect-like performances. Kelly has the stuff that scouts love, and was given a free pass early in his career because he had never dedicated all of his efforts to pitching, having entered his pro career as a two-way player. Even in a repeat season of Double-A last year, he posted just a 3.98 ERA and struck out just 6.6 batters per nine innings. Heading to the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League in 2012, however, Kelly had turned in two strong starts, posting a 2.25 ERA thus far and striking out 14 batters in 12 innings.

Kelly was sent to San Diego to have an MRI, which revealed no structural damage—a great piece of news for the Padres. The team will shut him down for a few weeks, get him on a throwing program, and send him back to Tucson when he's ready, which will likely be in six to eight weeks. The lack of structural damage brings a sigh of relief for the Padres, but Kelly had been likely to get a call-up at some point this season, and now the Padres will have to look elsewhere when they eventually need reinforcements.

Several teams have already had to make such calls. The Diamondbacks brought A.J. Pollock up to Arizona to help out in a banged up outfield. With Chris Young and Geoff Blum on the DL, and Justin Upton battling a nagging wrist injury, Pollock will be manning center field for the next few weeks.

Pollock is a solid prospect, but he will end up being a lengthy step down from Chris Young, whose Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field will be sorely missed. Pollock can man the position in the meantime, but his range is fringy. In fact, he could end up being a tweener in the outfield, without the range of a true center fielder or the power of a true corner guy. On Wednesday, I did a full breakdown of Pollock, and what players he might compare best with.

Also getting the call to the majors this week was Todd Frazier, the Reds' super-utility man in the making, whose appearance in Cincinnati is about two years too late, thanks to Dusty Baker's always-present reluctance to play anyone under the age of 25. The crotchety old, tooth-pick chewing Baker won't have much of a choice but to play Frazier, who takes the place of the injured Miguel Cairo on the Reds roster. He will have to fill in at third base anytime Scott Rolen can't go.

Frazier offers true value to the Reds in terms of roster flexibility, and his ability to play three infield positions and both corner outfield spots virtually eliminates the need for Cairo in the first place. But given how Baker is handling the playing time of Devin Mesoraco, a far superior prospect, splitting it with the vastly inferior Ryan Hanigan, Frazier likely shouldn't get too comfortable in Cincinnati.

Game to watch this weekend


Gerrit Cole pitches on Friday, and we'll see if the Pirates will ever let him throw more than four innings in a ballgame. The kid gloves with which the Pirates are handling their top pitching prospects, especially Cole, a seasoned college pitcher, has passed beyond frustrating to the point that I'm interested to see the potentially harmful effects it has on their development long-term. Cole will face off in Bradenton against Adrian Salcedo of the Twins, an intriguing prospect in his own right.


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The Tigers are aggressive over-spenders in the draft, a strategy which has landed them Rick Porcello, and most recently, Jacob Turner. They are also aggressive when it comes to trading prospects, not afraid to unload potential for proven veterans, having unloaded the likes of Cameron Maybin and Francisco Martinez in recent years to bolster the major league roster. Lastly, they are aggressive in promoting their pitching through their system, not afraid to skip levels and use young players in the majors.

The result, at least at the moment, is a system that has some intriguing talent, but not a ton of depth.

On the mound, the Tigers' stable of arms is impressive, especially from the left side, and fans got a good look at many of them this spring, as the team essentially held a month-long tryout for the final spot in its major league rotation with six of the system's top pitching prospects.

Turner entered the spring as the front-runner, both because of his record and talent. Turner, the team's top pick in 2009, is an example of the Tigers' big spending, as he fell to them at the ninth spot in the draft despite being the consensus top high school pitcher, and the Tigers grabbed him for the price of $4.7 million. His spring did not go as planned, however; he experienced a dead arm in the middle of March, taking him out of consideration for a major league spot on Opening Day.

It might be a blessing for the Tigers, however, since Turner has only three starts in Triple-A and three rough starts in the majors to his resume above Double-A. Once he's healthy, a half-season in Triple-A certainly couldn't hurt Turner, and despite the success the Tigers have had at promoting their pitching prospects aggressively, Turner's 8.53 ERA in the majors last season might suggest that he could use a little more time in the minors.

The other five prospects competing this spring were all southpaws, and the group ranks among the best of any organization in baseball. Adam Wilk parlayed a strong minor league career into five long-relief appearances in the majors last fall, though his success didn't translate as well as the team had hoped. He's a soft-tossing lefty with average stuff that plays up because of impeccable control. He won't miss too many bats, but he also won't give up any additional base runners either. He could be back and forth from the minors to the majors a number of times this season, and once in the majors for good, could be a swing man between the rotation and bullpen.

Also a possibility for that role on the Tigers roster over the next few years is Duane Below, who almost won the job as the fifth starter before being a late cut this spring, but then was recalled a day later to fill the team's long-reliever role when an injury produced a vacancy opened up due to injury. Below throws a little harder that Wilk but with less control. Primarily a starter in the minors, he'll likely end up being a bullpen pitcher or spot starter in the majors, and could spend the entire season in the Tigers' bullpen this season.

Andy Oliver has spent parts of the past two seasons in the majors, but hasn't been able to stick. In seven career starts, he has an ERA over 7.00 and hasn't missed bats in Detroit the way he did in the minors. His control has also escaped him. Oliver will lose his prospect status and will likely take the train between Toledo and Detroit a few times this season and fill in if the Tigers need an additional starter.

Casey Crosby was taken in the same draft as fellow prep pitcher Porcello, which is a testament to Porcello, who enters his fourth season in the majors. Crosby hasn't progressed as quickly, partially due to some elbow issues that caused him to miss a season and a half. When he's out there, he's battled moderate-to-severe control issues. If he gets his command, he could be a starter. If not, he could end up being a power reliever where his lack of control won't be exploited as easily and his mid-90s velocity can play up.

The issues of each of the above pitchers led to the selection of Drew Smyly for the final spot in the Tigers' big league rotation this spring. He is the most polished of the healthy lefties this spring, which makes him the safest choice for the team, despite having far and away the least experience of the group.

A second-round pick out of college in 2010, he has just one pro season, in which he made 21 strong starts between High-A and Double-A. Unlike the others, he has good command and struck out more than a batter an inning last season. He profiles as a starter, with four potential above-average pitches that give him a chance against batters on both sides of the plate.

Outside of the mound, the Tigers are quite barren. Their 2010 supplement first-rounder, Nick Castellanos, had a strong first full season while playing third base full time for Low-A West Michigan. The good news is he batted .312 with 36 doubles, a sign of future power to come, but his 130-to-45 strikeout-to-walk ratio brings reason for concern. He has a pro frame that he'll grow into, and the Tigers hope he'll grow into some plate discipline at the same time.

Others to watch

—Rob Brantly and James Mccann
The Tigers have taken catchers high in the past two drafts, with Brantley going in the third round in 2010 and McCann in the second round in 2011. Both are college picks, and should progress at the same pace, with Brantley jumping to Double-A despite struggles in 39 games in the Florida State League after a midseason promotion last year, and McCann making his full-season debut in the FSL this season. Brantley, a left-handed hitter, had a strong season in Low-A ball in 2011 and is has the better offense of the two, while McCann will need his bat to develop if he wants to be a big league starter.

—Aaron Westlake
A big boy with a big bat, Westlake must hit to have value. A first base-only option, he was taken in the third round last season with a reputation as a hitter. The 6-foot-4 Westlake appeared in just 32 games last season after signing. He should develop plus-power. Of course, as a first baseman, he won't be doing it for the Tigers in the majors, with Prince Fielder there, but if he hits, he could turn into a valuable trade chip for the team to use in the near future.

—Tyler Gibson
Taking him in the 15th round, the Tigers paid way over-slot ($550,000) to sign him before the August deadline, only to watch him go 2-for-14 with nine strikeouts in the Gulf Coast League soon thereafter. He's a toolsy player who will need a lot of work, but could be a solid center fielder when it's all said and done. He's sticking around in extended spring training for the time being, and should spend the year in short-season Connecticut.

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—The Nationals sent down Bryce Harper, and are going to have him play primarily center field in Triple-A. As far as I'm concerned, it's about time they tried this.

—The Diamondbacks have said they are sticking with Josh Collmenter as their fifth starter to start the season, and yet Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer remain in camp, and have all been more impressive than Collmenter this spring. Even if they do stick with Collmenter, and I imagine manager Kirk Gibson's word is as good as gold on matters like this, I can't imagine it's very long before he's replaced by someone from the Diamondbacks talented stable of pitching prospects. They're just too good, and Collmenter relies an awful lot on deception, which you would expect to become less deceptive each time the league sees him.

—Arodys Vizcaino, one of the Braves Big Three pitching prospects, will miss the entire 2012 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this week. He's young enough that it shouldn't set him back much further than this year, but it might spell the end of him being a starter.

—You haven't heard much about Mike Trout this spring, because he's been on the sidelines with a bad case of the flu. It caused him to lose 20 pounds and much of his strength. It's nothing to worry about long-term, but it might be just the excuse the Angels need to send him back to the minors to start the season. They were likely going to be forced to do that anyway due to the presence of Vernon Wells, Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter in the outfield, and Bobby Abreu and Kendrys Morales at the DH spot.

There simply aren't at-bats for Trout, who got back into action this week, unless the Angels can move somebody. Once he gets his strength back and gets his version of spring training in during the early days of the Triple-A season, the Angels will find a way to get him to the majors and have him play every day.

—Chase Utley's knees are as bad as ever, which probably means Freddy Galvis is going to make the big league club—and the Opening Day lineup. The shortstop prospect, who may have as big a disparity between his defensive and offensive abilities as any prospect in the minors, has taken nicely to second base, where he was getting work for a potential role as a utility man.

Given his defensive reputation at shortstop, the only question at second would be whether he can make the double play turn with his back to the runner. Apparently the Phillies have liked what they have seen. He's going to have to be one heck of a defender to make up for his bat, but apparently he is one heck of a defender.

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They did so with mixed results. They traded emerging closer Sergio Santos, getting in return Nestor Molina, who some claimed instantly became the best prospect in their farm system.

That’s as much a knock on the White Sox system as it is a testament to Molina. A nice prospect, Molina is not the type of high-ceiling player you want as the crown jewel of your farm system. He’s a pitcher with above-average stuff and plus command who profiles as either a back-of-the-rotation starter who’s almost big league ready or possibly a late-inning reliever.

If Molina isn’t the best prospect in the White Sox system, it’s because of Addison Reed. Reed falls into the same category as Molina, in that it’s still uncertain whether he will start or relieve, but Reed functions with much more electric stuff. If Reed ends up in a bullpen, he will likely be closing, and he could play that role in Chicago this season. He’s started only two games as a professional, but he has the repertoire to do so if the White Sox choose to stretch him out. Otherwise, he could be a dominant reliever.

Yet another player in the starter/reliever flux is the player the White Sox got in return for Carlos Quentin, Simon Castro, formerly of the Padres. Castro entered last season in the Padres farm system as the type of high-ceiling pitcher the White Sox lacked in their system. Lack of command and mechanical issues led to a disaster of a season in 2011 for Castro, but also is likely what allowed the White Sox to pluck him from the Padres this winter. If he can get his issues worked out, he could still be a mid-rotation starter, but with his mid-90s fastball and lack of a real change-up, he could also be destined for the bullpen.

The starter/reliever development quandary also includes Jacob Petricka, a right-hander with a legitimate 100 mph arm, but questionable secondary pitches. At least Petricka is currently working as a starter in the minors, and will continue to do so until he proves otherwise.

This is the issue with the White Sox system. Lots of interesting arms, but lots of question marks.

The same applies to many of their top position players.

Their top pick in the 2009 draft was Jared Mitchell, a two-sport athlete at LSU. He’s been largely forgotten for the past two years after blowing out his Achilles making a spectacular catch in a 2010 spring training game, an injury that cost him the entire 2010 season. This was especially devastating for a player like Mitchell who relies on his athleticism to make up for lack of baseball experience, and who needed all the professional at-bats he could get after splitting time in college with his football duties.

Mitchell came back and played a full season last year, but the results weren’t what the Sox had hoped to get out of him by this time in his career. Mitchell hit just .222 and struck out 183 times. He’s always been a high-risk prospect, but that type of swinging and missing doesn’t bode well for his future development, especially when it comes with only nine home runs.

Trayce Thompson had similar contact issues in 2011, batting just .249 and striking out in almost 29 percent of his at-bats, but he brought 24 homers and 36 doubles to the table with all those whiffs. While Thompson’s contact issues are still significant, his production in spite of it still makes him an intriguing prospect.

Others to watch


Charlie Leesman: Leesman is a nice prospect who should be a back-of-the-rotation starter when it’s all said and done. He struggled more than expected in Double-A last season, mainly because his control wasn’t great. He doesn’t miss enough bats to miss the strike zone, but if he can just hit the mitt a little more often, he’ll turn into a usable starter in the next year or so.

Jordan Danks: The brother of current White Sox starter John Danks swings and misses too often to ever hit for a high average, and doesn’t have the power to go along with it. If he could become even an average hitter, his defense in center field would make him a very usable player.

Keenyn Walker: The Sox' first pick in this past year’s draft (47th overall) is a big (6-foot-3) switch-hitter with tools out the wazoo. We’ll see if he can hit.

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I spent last week in Florida, visiting a number of sites. As a prospect guy, I went to see the back fields as much as the Grapefruit League games, although I took in plenty of them as well.

Here are a few of my thoughts:

On facilities


It's not like free agents in baseball make their decisions based on facilities the way we're hearing they apparently do in football, but the disparity among facilities is obvious. The Red Sox' facilities, for instance, are newly renovated and beautiful. In fact, if there's one place you need to hit on a spring training trip, its JetBlue Park at Fenway South, which they have re-done to replicate Fenway Park almost perfectly. They even have a Green Monster you can sit in, or on top of, without going broke the way you would in Boston.

Other newer facilities, such as the Phillies' and Braves' locations, are both player and fan friendly. Others, like the Twins', for example, are outdated and boring, much like the Metrodome was.

From Braves camp


—Andrelton Simmons is their best defensive shortstop. Not for the future, not next year. Right now. And it's not that close. I broke down the Braves decision between Tyler Pastornicky and Simmons, which wasn't a decision they thought they were going to have to make when camp broke. But Pastornicky has struggled, and Simmons has shined this spring.

Simmons is certainly not ready to hit at the major league level, but he is much more the Braves shortstop of the future than Pastornicky, so the Braves could be tempted to make that future this year. If they do, Simmons will struggle at the plate, but he is a smooth defender and can handle that part of the job just fine today, if need be.

—Joey Terdoslavich, who moved back across the diamond to third base after playing first base last season, was smoother than I expected him to be defensively. The former college third baseman has plenty of arm for the position, and moves his feet better than I had imagined, which makes me wonder why the Braves moved him off the position in the first place.

From Rays camp


The Rays have a decision looming: where former first overall pick Tim Beckham will ultimately play. It's not going to be shortstop, but not because he can't do it. In fact, he didn't look terrible taking ground balls at short. He's a little stiff and too upright, but he could handle it in stints, if not for a whole season while he's still young and athletic.

But Hak-Ju Lee is much better. He's smooth and fluid and makes tough plays look routine. Assuming he hits, and I believe he will, he will be the Rays' shortstop of the future. As for Beckham, I could see him in a super-utility mold (assuming he hits, which is a bigger question for him than it is for Lee), and the Rays will give him some time at second base this year. Third base would be a more natural move for him, and he's clearly blocked there by Evan Longoria, but don't be surprised to see him learn that position as well to give him more versatility.

Ultimately, I see Beckham as a backup who gets 300-400 at-bats per season, playing multiple positions, in a Wilson Betimit-type role, which manager Joe Maddon is excellent at using to its greatest extent.

From Phillies camp


—The most impressive player on the back fields of Phillies camp was third base prospect Maikel Franco. He moves well for a big kid who is still growing into his body. He looks like he has plenty of athleticism to stay at third base, but his hands will ultimately make the decision. He has plenty of arm to stay at the position, but he needs to stay on top of his throws. He drops his arm slot and slings the ball when he gets lazy.

If his hands force a move, or if he outgrows the position, he has plenty of arm for right field. At the plate, he has natural raw power. I saw him get jammed pretty badly on one swing in batting practice and still one-hop the center field fence.

—Catching prospect Sebastian Valle looks like the real deal. He has a smooth swing and great swing path. He needs to watch wrapping his bat around his head in his load, which tends to lengthen his swing from time to time, but as long as he gets his hands in the right position and gets his foot down in time, he will hit. He has good natural power and a solid frame to grow into. He'll be the Phillies' catcher as soon as they need to move on from Carlos Ruiz.

—There are a number of different ways to do a spring training trip. If you want to take your son or daughter, there is a ton to do (especially for young kids). If you have a teenage son or daughter, I recommend the back fields where they can see the practices, especially if your son or daughter is an aspiring baseball or softball player. They'll get to see some of the drills major league players are doing, which can be a great experience.

But if you're going with your buddies and are into things like drinking beers (which happens to be a favorite pastime of mine), there's no better spot than BrightHouse Networks Field in Clearwater. The Phillies' spring training home has the best atmosphere for those who enjoy the party aspect of a ballgame. Phillies fans come down in droves, and the tiki bar in left field not only creates a nice watering hole during the game, but doesn't close at the typical last call in the seventh inning; it stays open (and crowded) hours after the game.

From Pirates camp


—Gorkys Hernandez, one of the pieces the Pirates got back in the Nate McLouth trade and who is now playing alongside the player he was traded for, can't quite figure out what type of player he's supposed to be. He's got a small-man's game in a bigger body than you'd think. He's a speed guy with a power-hitter's swing. He takes monster hacks at the plate, but doesn't produce the power to go along with his swings and misses. He either needs to shorten up his swing and make more contact or figure out how to produce more power. Given his speed, I'd choose the first option.

—Josh Bell is a grown man. Just standing on the field next to big leaguers, he looks imposing. His swing looks good, although I got to see o0nly a brief round of batting practice before rains cancelled the rest. But the most impressive thing was just how big, and developed, he is for a recent high school draft pick.

Overall, a spring training trip is a wonderful experience for a baseball fan, and one that I recommend to anyone who enjoys the game, no matter how you enjoy it. If you're a serious fan, it's your best chance to see an entire organization in one place, and most facilities give you access to the back fields. If you're an autograph hound, you won't be alone, and most players are pretty gracious with their time in March. If you're more into the social aspect of the game, there's plenty of places and people for that as well.

It's a trip that every baseball fan should do at least once.

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That’s the kind of stuff fans cling to—ideas like a general manager actually having the ability to undo curses, and that there are curses in the first place. But, in addition to the hope that Theo Epstein arrived on the North Side with some kind of anti-goat wizardry, there is a nice little farm system that could have a little more to do with turning things around at Wrigley.

Notice I didn’t say best. The Cubs farm system is not the best. In fact, if I ranked the entire league, the Cubs would probably land somewhere in the middle of the pack. But they do have some intriguing prospects who could be solid regulars and a few potential impact players.

The best trait of the Cubs system is the proximity of most of their top prospects to the majors. Third baseman Josh Vitters, shortstop Junior Lake, and pitchers Trey Mcnutt and Rafael Dolis have all appeared at Double-A or higher. And the best of all of their prospects, outfielder Brett Jackson, got 185 at-bats in Triple-A last year and should be ready for the majors at some point in 2012.

I’m higher on Jackson than a lot of people. After being drafted out of Cal, Jackson got the “good at everything, not great at anything label,” which can be a positive assessment for some, but typically comes with a ceiling somewhere below star player.

Jackson fell to the Cubs at the end of the first round in 2009 because scouts were concerned whether he would make enough contact at the professional level. He’s had some issues with strikeouts, but he’s been productive in spite of it and he’s shown no reason yet why that won’t continue. His power/speed production combo puts him in rare company in the minor leagues, and the only real knock on him is that his inconsistencies making contact could make him a .270-.280 hitter rather than a true five-tool guy.

Luckily, these issues don’t have anything to do with over-aggressiveness. Jackson still takes enough walks to post above-average on-base percentages.

Once in the majors, he should be good for a solid prime of .275 with 30 doubles, 20 homers and 15 steals. The only center fielders in the game who did that last season were Matt Kemp and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Jackson isn’t quite in their class, but he’s going to be an above-average player. If we search for the same criteria among all outfielders, we add Ryan Braun, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur to the list.

I like Gordon as a decent comparison to what Jackson could become, but with the ability to play center field. Gordon hit .300 this season, and Jackson might do that once or twice in his career, but he should come in just below that. But given his ability to play center field, a few points lower in batting average is a fair trade off for the Cubs.

Jackson is the club’s top prospect, but the development of the rest of the aforementioned crew from the upper minors will go a long way in determining the success of the Cubs. Vitters, for instance, was the club's first-round pick in 2008, and while he hasn’t quite lived up to expectations, he did have his best all-around year in 2011 and could still be the team’s third baseman of the future within the next year or two.

Lake has yet to put it all together for an entire season, but he’s shown flashes of tools worth getting excited about, and his performance in the Arizona Fall League this past year has left the team excited. He won’t be a shortstop in Chicago with Starlin Castro around, but he could hop across the second base bag and man the keystone if he shows enough offensive consistency.

On the mound, Dolis has been a starter throughout most of his professional career, but could be an impact reliever in the back of the Cubs bullpen by the end of 2012. McNutt is slated to head back to Double-A after a disappointing 2011 season, but the minute he turns it back around and looks like the 2010 version of himself, he could be fast-tracked to Chicago.

But the Cubs' depth doesn’t just reside at the top of their system. They have some legitimate talent in the lower levels as well. They spent a lot of money to buy Matt Szczur out of a potential football career, and he made it look like a good decision in his first full season of professional ball. He should head back for more at-bats in the Florida State League, where he spent the second half of last season, and he should only get better as he makes the transition from athlete to baseball player.

The Cubs first-round pick in 2011 was yet another shortstop, Javier Baez, a prep prospect from Jacksonville, Fla. In a draft that had a number of strong prep shortstops, Baez was a good fit for the Cubs, as a strong bat that might outgrow the position. Given that the Cubs have Castro at short, they could afford to draft an impact hitter who might have to change positions.

Others to watch


Logan Watkins: As a player without any power to speak of and no true position on the field, Watkins still profiles as someone who has some value for a big league club. He’s held his own at shortstop, while also playing second base, third base and both corner outfield spots. He has doubles and triples power, good speed, and enough versatility that he should be able to carve out a utility role on a big league club. He’s continuing to refine his game, and should head to Double-A next year, meaning he might be ready for that utility role around the time the Cubs are getting competitive.

Daniel Vogelbach:Big boy, big power. The Cubs' second-round pick in 2011 is a first baseman with all his value tied into his bat. He got only 24 at-bats after signing, so there’s no telling how it’s going to turn out just yet, so this season will tell us which direction Vogelbach’s career is headed. At 18 years old, he’s already had weight issues, but if he can keep things under control, he should hit, and has plenty of power to play at first base.

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In the past four years, the Red Sox have signed eight players to seven-figure deals—after the first round. Two of those players—Anthony Ranaudo and Ryan Westmoreland—signed for more than $2 million. They’ve also had five first-rounders in the past four years, the least expensive of whom (Reymond Fuentes in 2009) signed for over $1.3 million.

Their big spending has not always paid off in major league production, as no draft pick from the past four years has made a significant contribution in Boston, but the Red Sox draft for trading chips as much as anything else. This new was more evident than when they traded their first-round picks from back-to-back years (Casey Kelly from 2008 and Fuentes from 2009), along with Anthony Rizzo, for current first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, then gave him a huge contract.

With many long-term contracts at the major league level, there just aren’t always openings for upcoming prospects, but if the Red Sox want to make a move in the future involving prospects, they have plenty left in the system to work with.

With Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford in the Red Sox outfield for the foreseeable future, there aren’t a lot of at-bats available for up-and-coming outfielders, meaning that prospects like Bryce Brentz, Brandon Jacobs and Jackie Bradley may never roam the outfield at Fenway.

But then again, they could. After adjusting to eye issues, Brentz went swing-for-swing with Bryce Harper in the South Atlantic League for the first half of the season, then more than held his own in High-A ball after a midseason promotion. His biggest deficiency is his plate discipline, which will be exploited at higher levels if not improved, but if he can refine his approach without losing his power potential, he could man right field alongside Ellsbury and Crawford.

Jacobs, a year behind Brentz, broke out in his first full professional season, hitting .303/.376/.505 in Low-A ball in 2011. Unfortunately, he’s a left field-only outfielder, meaning if he’s ready anytime before 2018 (which he will be) when Crawford’s contract is up, he won’t get much playing time in Boston.

Bradley was a College World Series star who suffered from poor play and injury in his draft year, but the Red Sox have the payroll flexibility to take a chance on his high ceiling by paying over slot after drafting him in the first supplemental round last year. It’s not the first time they’ve pulled this move.

One year earlier, the Sox grabbed another former college star whose junior year had been a disappointment—Anthony Ranaudo out of LSU. They were able to follow Ranaudo into the Cape Cod League after drafting him, and after liking what they saw, signed him for just over $2.5 million. The risk has still yet to be determined as wise or not, but Ranaudo did have a solid first year and made a full season of starts while displaying his college velocity. The Red Sox are excited about those two facts, assuming he continues to build on them.

The Red Sox do have some openings at the major league level from time to time, and the most obvious one entering this season is behind the plate. Jarrod Saltalamacchia returns as the probable starter, and the team brought in Kelly Shoppach to push him, but neither is entrenched in the position with the departure of long-time captain Jason Varitek.

That opens the door for Ryan Lavarnway, who saw some playing time down the stretch during the team’s collapse last season. He’s not a strong defensive catcher, but he can hold his own and has a bat that could end up being above average for a catcher. At worst, he should be a solid backup, but if he gets a chance to play, he could prove his worth as a solid starting catcher.

If Lavarnway doesn’t firmly entrench himself in the backstop position, there is more help on the way, albeit somewhat far away. Blake Swihart was drafted out of high school this past summer, and got just six professional at-bats, but he has an advanced bat that could move quickly through the minors once he gets started. He’s certainly far enough from the majors that the Red Sox wouldn’t make any decisions at the top level based on him, but Swihart is regarded highly enough that they could start factoring him into their decision making by this time next year.

Catcher is the most obvious opening for the Red Sox, but third base isn’t nearly as stable as it might seem. Sure Kevin Youkilis is the man at the hot corner for now, but he is in the last guaranteed year of his contract with a team option for 2013.. He's battled injuries the past two seasons, so the Sox might turn to 2007 fifth-rounder Will Middlebrooks, the team’s top prospect, rather than pick up the $13 million option on Youkilis.

Middlebrooks is a strong all-around player, including defensively at third base, and will play the entire 2012 season at Triple-A, where a strong season could make the Youkilis option decision an easy one.

Others to watch
Xander Bogaerts. The top power hitting prospect in the system and among the most powerful in the minors, Bogaerts is likely to outgrow shortstop but could settle at third base or a corner outfield position. He’s slated for High-A ball in 2012.

Jose Iglesias. He's the best defensive shortstop in the Red Sox organization—majors included—but might not hit his weight. And he’s pretty skinny.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jeff Moore 2012-02-28T09:48:15+00:00 State of the system - Baltimore Orioles http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/state-of-the-system-baltimore-orioles/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/state-of-the-system-baltimore-orioles/#When:06:32:15 Manny Machado.

That’s really all you need to know about the Orioles farm system.

Want to know more?

Jonathan Schoop.

That’s the next level. He’s pretty good too.

After that? It’s a long way down for the Orioles' farm system.

A farm system that was as good as any a few years ago, a system that offered Matt Wieters , Adam Jones, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz, is long gone.

No farm system in the majors has a bigger disparity between top and bottom as the Baltimore Orioles'. Bundy and Machado, the best prospects in the system, are a part of the reason for that.

Machado is among the best shortstop prospects in baseball. Bundy is among the most refined pitching prospects to have come out of high school in years.

Machado debuted last season in Low-A ball, and tore it up before a knee injury interrupted his season. Playing alongside him was Schoop, who was a natural shortstop, but played third base in deference to Machado. This is what happens when a third overall pick and a signee from Curacao play the same position at the same level.

Schoop posted an .890 OPS in Low-A Delmarva before a promotion to High-A Frederick. where he struggled with his power, a struggle on par to the .859 to .692 OPS drop Machado experienced making the same jump.

Schoop doesn’t have the same draft pedigree that Machado does, but the two are the future of the Orioles in the field, and as long as they are committed to Machado at short, Schoop will have to learn either second or third base—both moves the team thinks he can handle.

After Schoop and Machado, the position player pool gets pretty shallow. I’d like to say that luckily after that the pitcher pool is deep, but I’d be lying. It’s Dylan Bundy or Bust.

Bundy was a good enough draft pick out of high school to warrant a major league contract, and is a better prospect at 18 than was Arrieta, Matusz or Timlan. He’s still a long way away from Camden Yards, but not as far away as your typical prep pitcher. He has yet to pitch professionally, but he’ll start in full season ball and might not be more than two years away from the majors.

After that big three, there’s a significant dropoff. The Orioles have some interesting athletes in the field, but there are some serious questions about whether any of them will hit enough to stick.

L.J. Hoes has been on the prospect radar since being drafted in 2008, and in a weak system, his athleticism stands out. Last year, for the first time in professional career, his production caught up with his tools, and he finally hit over .300, and more importantly, walked almost as much as he stuck out. He’s been playing second base primarily and needs to stay, a significant question, for his bat to play properly.

An even better athlete than Hoes is Xavier Avery, a fellow 2008 draftee who has yet to hit at all, and has an atrocious strikeout-to-walk ratio, but has enough athleticism to keep the Orioles interested. In over 600 Double-A at-bats, he’s yet to slug over .400.

Others to watch
Nicky Delmonico and Jason Esposito—a pair of 2011 corner infield draftees, both need to develop for the Orioles system to bounce back.

Bobby Bundy, Dylan’s older brother is a capable pitcher in his own right. He’s a mid-to-low level prospect in most systems, but he’s worth keeping an eye on for the Orioles.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jeff Moore 2012-02-21T06:32:15+00:00 Prospect news: The first camp opens http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/prospect-news-the-first-camp-opens/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/prospect-news-the-first-camp-opens/#When:05:09:15 two-game spring training trip to Tokyo), but some notables pieces of news have begun to trickle out as spring approaches.

—Matt Harvey, the Mets' 2010 first-round pick who tore up the Florida State League last season and held his own in Double-A, has added a two-seamer to his arsenal. Baseball America, in its Top-10 prospects write-up (subscription needed), notes that Harvey already throws a two-seamer, but if he says he's adding one, then I'll assume that he didn't throw too many last season.

As a pitcher with plus velocity but a lack of fastball command, how he takes to the two-seamer could end up being the difference between him remaining a starter down the road and a possible move to the bullpen, where he could no doubt be a strong late-inning reliever.

—Another pitcher whose future role is still up in the air is Jordan Swagerty of the St. Louis Cardinals. A reliever in college, Swagerty began last year as a starter, but finished in the bullpen when the Cardinals wanted to curtail his innings pitched. Entering 2012, Swagerty will once again be working as a starter, with the Cardinals planning to leave him in that role as long as he has success. Swagerty uses four pitches, so if he can fully develop them he has the potential to be a starter.

—In case you were wondering how unique Trevor Bauer is as a pitcher, you can consult one of his nine different pitches for verification.

—The Cardinals signed two international free agents this week. The first is Dominican right-hander Andres Serrano, who Baseball America describes as a 6-foot-3 17-year-old who throws between 90-95 mph. Serrano signed for a reported $750,000. Just two days later, the team announced the signing of a 17-year-old left hander from the Dominican, Erick Hurtado. His signing bonus was not announced, but reports have him as more raw than Serrano, so it is reasonable to expect that it was significantly less.

—Reports coming out of the only spring training camp under way so far are saying that left-hander James Paxton has been impressive in his first couple of bullpen sessions. The Mariners rotation is crowded, with as many as seven potential starters competing for rotation spots (Felix Hernandez, Jason Vargus, Kevin Millwood, Hisashi Iwakuma, Hector Noesi, Blake Beavan and Charlie Furbush), but this is the team that let Michael Pineda jump to the majors despite limited minor league experience, so nothing can be ruled out completely.

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The past two seasons have been prime examples of that, as they have allowed Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman to take over starting roles in the field right out of spring training. As it appears now, they plan to do the same this year at shortstop, with Tyler Pastornicky entering the spring as the frontrunner for the position. But while Pastornicky may have the inside track on a starting job this spring, the Braves' true depth lies on the mound.

The best known pitching prospects in the Braves farm system are known as the Big Three—Randall Delgado, Arodys Vizcaino, and their top prospect, Julio Teheran.

Delgado made seven starts in the majors last season and did quite well, but has the lowest ceiling of the three; he's projected as a middle-of-the-rotation starter who needs to improve his fastball command. Vizcaino transitioned to the bullpen last year as he rose to the higher levels of the minors and really embraced the role before making 17 relief appearances in the majors last year. He could always go back to being a starter, but it would take some more development and the Braves are already log-jammed in their rotation. For 2012, Vizcaino could easily grab a bullpen spot in spring training.

Teheran is the make-or-break piece in the Braves farm system, its only truly elite talent. Most prospect lists rank Teheran as the top right-handed pitching prospect in baseball and second-best pitching prospect overall, behind only Matt Moore of Tampa Bay. Teheran has all the makings of a true ace, and needs only slight refinements to make it happen. The only thing that could keep him from making the Braves rotation this spring is lack of an opening.

But the Braves have even more depth after the Big Three, with potential major league contributors at all levels of big league preparedness. Left-hander Sean Gilmartin was the team’s first-round pick in the 2011 draft, and while he threw just 39 innings last season (including in the Arizona Fall League), he is not expected to need much time in the minors and projects as a mid-rotation starter and innings eater. He should start 2012 in Double-A and could be ready when called upon.

Inthe Double-A rotation, Gilmartin should join Zeke Spruill, a 6-foot-4 right hander who profiles as a true innings eater, throwing 175 innings last season between High and Double-A. Spruill was a part of a 2008 draft in which the Braves took pitchers in their first four picks, the last of which was last year’s Rookie of the Year, Craig Kimbrel. They also nabbed Paul Clemens and Brett Oberholtzer in the seventh and eighth rounds. They were flipped to Houston last season for Michael Bourn and 10th-round pick J.J. Hoover, a right-handed pitcher who had been a starter his entire minor league career before a switch to the bullpen midway through last season. Hoover owns a career 3.14 minor league ERA and 9.5 K/9 in 400-plus minor league innings.

Strong drafts have long been a part of the reloading process for the Braves farm system, and while the 2009 draft hasn’t shown a ton of production outside of first-rounder Mike Minor, the 2010 draft is shaping up to potentially bear fruit. First-round pick Matt Lipka hasn’t had the success the Braves had hoped for when they drafted his as a high school shortstop out of Texas. In his first full season in 2011, he posted an OPS of just .608 and split time between shortstop and second base. But while their first-round pick is still very much up in the air, thee Braves are seeing positive signs from some later-round picks.

Their second of two second-round picks (70th overall) was Andrelton Simmons, a two-way player in junior college who wanted to hit, and has since become the Braves' top position prospect. He is already the best defensive shortstop in the Braves system, and if Pastornicky falters at all in the majors, Simmons won’t be far behind him.

Sixth-round pick Joey Terdoslavich shifted from third to first base last season and hit everything in sight. He posted 52 doubles and 20 home runs in the always pitcher-friendly Carolina League. While he doesn’t walk much, he also doesn’t have atrocious strikeout numbers for a power hitter. He’ll have to show he can do it against advanced pitching, but should get the chance in Double-A this season.


Others to watch


Brandon Drury—Taken in the 13th round of the 2010 draft, Drury was a high school infielder who hit .347 in his second pro season. Giant red flags come with Drury, since he walked only six times, but that kind of hit tool is worth a look.

Christian Bethancourt—A super-talented catcher from the Braves' 2008 international signing class, Bethancourt swings at everything thrown his way and won’t fully reach his potential until he figures out how to stop.

Todd Cunningham—A 2010 second-rounder, Cunningham has a high upside and above-average athleticism, but hasn’t translated it into production yet.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jeff Moore 2012-02-14T06:58:15+00:00