The Hardball Times -- Ben Pritchett http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-20T08:09:15+00:00 Daily fantasy gaming advice http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-gaming-advice/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-gaming-advice/#When:09:29:15 CLICK HERE. I hope you do. You are running out of time so don’t delay. It should be a lot of fun, and I can’t think of a better way to kick off the season than a chance at putting Nick, Dave, or me in our place. I guess the free cash prize could entice some of you degenerates. Seriously, daily fantasy at FANDUEL is one of my favorite ways to compete in fantasy period. I am now stepping off my soapbox and into my analyst chair.

Over the next several weeks, I will be attempting to school you guys on the ins-and-outs of playing daily fantasy baseball. It’s not that dissimilar from the old school salary cap leagues you were doing on ESPN in the 1990s. You take a salary cap of 35,000 dollars and allocate it however you wish and fill out a line-up. It’s really that simple, or is it? If you want to play for fun, I totally understand. Filling out a line-up of “your guys” should provide for a fun day of game watching. Before now, this was usually the camp I belonged to. But if you want to play to win, you must do your homework.

Daily fantasy baseball is more than just throwing together a line up. You must cycle through several important nuances that any given day’s worth of match-ups could offer. Here are some tips that the hardcore daily guys don’t want you to know.

First of all, always pay attention to the weather. You know that point in the news forecast that you sit through waiting for the sports. Yeah, that’s suddenly very important. If a game gets rained out in yearly fantasy baseball, it’s usually no big deal. You’ll benefit from a doubleheader somewhere down the road. That’s not so in daily fantasy. You must make sure your game is not going to get rained out because if the game is rained out, you forfeit that players possible stats for that game. Translation: you get a big zero. It’s not that hard to find out the chance of weather around the nation. There is a site that caters itself to providing you with this kind of information. It’s called Daily Baseball Data. The guys at DBD give you everything you need to know from an hourly rain chance percentage down to a wind speed projection at all the parks for that day. This website is priceless.

Daily baseball data goes one step further and gives you another crucial facet of daily gaming, the pitcher/hitter match-up. You have to know your splits. That means you need to know if Alfonso Soriano has ever played against Stephen Strasburg. If Soriano has played Strasburg how has he fared? How has Strasburg handled hitters like Soriano? The scenarios go on and on. Most importantly, you need to focus on how each do against the handedness of their opponents. Before I ever select a hitter, I count my opportunity cost by formulating how that particular hitter should fare against the opposing pitcher.

For example, I like Freddie Freeman. He’s coming off a great Spring. There may not be a hotter hitter in all of baseball, but Freeman will be facing Johan Santana today. At 3,400 dollars, Freeman isn’t cheap, but he isn’t incredibly expensive either by Fanduel’s pricing set-up. So Santana is a lefty as we all know. I would not be doing my due diligence without considering how a left-handed Freeman should play against a left-handed Santana. The lefty versus lefty match up is typically one to avoid in most cases. Freeman hit .249 against southpaws in 2011 and had about 130 fewer points in his OPS compared to facing right-handed pitchers. It’s not good, but I wouldn’t say that we get an indicator that Santana will dominate him. Freeman will also be playing in Citi Field, which may or may not still be a pitcher’s park. We shall see.

There is a slight hitch to this equation. Bucking conventional wisdom, Santana has performed far worse against left-handed hitters over the past four years. He gave up a higher OPS and over 44 points in batting average to lefties. I wonder that, as the speed of his fastball has diminished, so might has its effectiveness on left-handers. Never forget about his change up, of course, but I wonder how Santana will do moving forward against the lefties of baseball.

The point to my rambling thought process isn’t to sway you into picking Freeman or that Santana should be avoided as he faces a lefty-heavy Braves line up. My point was to give you an example of how you should approach every single position choice up and down your roster.

So we’ve covered the weather and lefty/righty splits. Now, we must focus on the most simple but also the most crucial facet of them all, playing time. If a guy doesn’t play, he doesn’t get points. I know I’m brilliant, but you must make sure that your players are playing in their game before finalizing your roster. Baseball, unlike any other sport, has a tendency to shift, change, rearrange, and reconstruct a line up on an almost daily basis. Since the season is so long, players will get days off. The most important position to monitor here is catcher. Your chances of a catcher missing a start is very high. Factors like age and day game after a night game are some good starting points on figuring out line up cards before they are actually listed to the public. I like to go to a website called Rotoinfo. They are tops in the industry at getting daily line ups out very early to the consumer, more than any other site including MLB.com and ESPN.

Furthering on that point, you must also account for the sudden revelation of injuries. Josh Beckett may or may not pitch on Saturday. You won’t know until Saturday. To pick Beckett as your pitcher means you must stay informed on whether or not he will truly make the Saturday start. I understand that this is elementary stuff, but to the classic, yearly fantasy player that has never had to focus on these nuances, it should be very informative.

Lastly, don’t play the “sharks”. Check your ego at the door. Like any competition you will be as good as the effort you put into being good. The guys that have accrued large amounts of winnings have done so by playing large amounts of games and by putting large amounts of time into it. You wouldn’t walk into a weight room and throw several 45-pound slabs on the bar and do bench press if you’ve never bench pressed before. So you shouldn’t try to prove yourself against guys that have huge chests. Win against the other new guys or else you’ll lose against the veterans. Trust me on this. I learned the hard way. There is definitely a learning curve to transitioning from being yearly focused to daily focused. It’s like changing your personality from being a macromanager viewing life from the helicopter to being a micromanager where every single detail is pored over until it’s etched into you.

I hope you have enjoyed my take on the basic ways to play daily fantasy baseball. I also hope you take the opportunity to join your THT brethren in the FANDUEL free roll. I’m super excited to be bringing you a weekly look into different strategies and other nuggets of information for all you new daily fantasy players. Next week, I will focus on players that are undervalued by Fanduel. Until then, good luck to all. If you have any daily fantasy questions shoot me an email at wbpritchett@gmail.com.

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For example, I wouldn’t draft Johan Santana based on my rankings, but if my team conditions favor an ERA upside play, then there may not be a better, cheaper option than Santana. I obviously would pull the trigger no matter my previous feelings or, more importantly, my rankings.

The other thing I learned is that I am fascinated by standard deviation in “expert” rankings. I will spend the most time on this topic because I think it has a real use for you as well as my mindless musings.

Basically, for all you non-mathletes out there, standard deviation is the movement from the mean (average). Thanks to Fantasy Pros , we can actually look at how the greatest minds in the industry feel about a player, even if it’s in an arbitrary ranking. I firmly believe the standard deviation table may be of more use than the overall rankings list itself.

One of the biggest question marks I have when I go into a draft is how other managers truly value players. Obviously, I feel pretty confident about the players I want and how I’m going to go about getting them. The unknown is how the other managers feel about those same players.

By looking at the standard deviation, we are able to understand draft volatility a little bit better than we may have ever before. If a player has an extreme movement from the "expert" consensus thought, then there’s a chance that somebody in your league may share the positive/negative feelings surrounding the player.

Understanding a player with extreme volatility could be a huge bonus for a manager that knows how to use this information properly. I like using a volatile player early in the nomination process of an auction draft. The idea is that the draft room will either overspend or underspend. Either way, that benefits you. People, this is good stuff. I hope you are paying attention.

Here is what I’m going to call the “Kipnis Effect”. Another benefit of using standard deviation as a draft tool may be the way it can enhance your strategy towards certain players that you feel favorably about. For example, take a look at Jason Kipnis. He ranges from 62 overall all the way to 250 with a deviation from the mean of 50.4.

Looking a little further into who has him ranked where, Kipnis becomes an even more interesting case. His ranking amongst individual experts is down at 163 at its lowest. The 174 and 250 rankings are that of CBS Sports and ESPN’s site rankings, respectively. I take this to mean that Kipnis will inherently be cheaper on these sites.

There have been studies, I believe performed by Rotoauthority or Baseball HQ, that confirm draft prices are dictated by site rankings. So if you like Kipnis at 62 overall, you won’t have to spend nearly that much to get him. This is all assuming you aren’t drafting with Kipnis himself or someone related to Kipnis or someone that’s crushing on Kipnis. Here are some other players I found experiencing the Kipnis Effect: Alejandro De Aza, Seth Smith, and J.P. Arencibia.

Just like extreme deviation is important, I think no deviation at all has equal value. Assuming multiple sources provide the same rating, you can have a better idea of what the room is willing to pay for that particular player. I don’t think there would be a more valuable tool than to know nearly every move my opponents are going to make before they make it.

It’s not as easy to garner useful information off non-deviating rankings since most of the pertaining players are the earlier-round selections where consensus thought tends to reign supreme, or they are found in the last three hundred where the expert rankings become fewer. If you focus on the guys in the forty-and-beyond range, you might find a little more useful consistency.

For example, David Price has the lowest deviation of 8.5 with a consensus ranking of 47. I think that you can expect Price to stay in this general area of drafts. For me, a guy that likes Price as a fantasy ace this year, this information is priceless. I can safely assume I will be able to draft him as the 40th player and still find value without much risk of losing him to other owners.

Now, this practice may be reserved more towards snake drafts, but the principle can be used in auction, as well, if you focus your attention on the positional rankings.

Put a pen to paper and map out the players you want on your fantasy team. Winning fantasy baseball isn’t necessarily how much you know, it’s how much work you are willing to put into winning. I believe there’s less pre-work that needs to be done in a snake draft than an auction draft. So, using standard deviation in these postional rankings should help with designing tiers more efficiently in auction leagues. Effective use of tiers is all up to a particular manager’s roster-building strategy.

I actually learned through this exercise with rankings deviation that there is a strong chance I will draft Carlos Gonzalez. Upon looking at where I have him ranked in contrast with my colleagues, I apparently like him more, and he will baseline a tier I fully expect to draft early in all leagues, including my snake and auction leagues.

I must close with my final thoughts about the whole THT rankings process. I always loved my own personal rankings as a basis for thought and have never had to be held accountable for their accuracy. So this whole exercise was new and different. However, I didn’t realize how difficult it would be.

I spend an average of two hours a day totally dedicated to reading, analyzing, and researching fantasy baseball. For these rankings I spent at least six to eight hours of concentrated thinking. Even with that effort, I don’t think they are anywhere near where they should be. I pride myself on the knowledge base I’ve built, which is why I began writing for THT in the first place.

The ranking of players made me realize that any one person’s personal rankings are fatally flawed. We are influenced by the baseline rankings provided by Fantasy Pros. We are slaves to our own bias. I found myself driven to the point of frustration over whether Colby Rasmus should be higher than Brandon Belt when it really doesn’t matter.

Furthermore, I know that my fellow writers would agree that rankings do not and will never account for shifts in draft momentum, nor do they adapt themselves to the fluidity of your lineup. Rankings are cold and dead. Tiers are better, but I don’t think that being constrained by making sure a specific tier is targeted is that much better, though I like the idea of building talent tiers. I figure the name of the game in fantasy baseball is all about accruing stats in the most efficient manner.

Obviously, the most efficient manner to accrue stats is to draft the perfect team and never have to manage or do anything. Now, that wouldn’t be fun, but I started thinking about all the talent monikers we bestow on different types of fantasy players. Now, this is just in the early stages of my thought process, but shouldn’t it be smarter, especially in deeper leagues, to draft based on a specific type of talent rather than a blank name ranking?

Take the famed “five-tool” fantasy player. You could easily tier that out with Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Justin Upton, and Jacoby Ellsbury in the first tier. Follow that up with an Ian Kinsler, Hanley Ramirez, Curtis Granderson, David Wright, and Andrew McCutchen tier. Then you have the likes of Brett Lawrie, Hunter Pence, and such. You get the idea.

This exercise can be repeated with power, speed, average/contact, RBI (batting order placement), prospects, wins (good teams), strikeouts, ERA/WHIP, and even five-tool pitchers (do-everything talents). I believe that I have always done this type of rationalization in drafts before now, but it was always done in my head as I was making quick decisions. All this list-making made me really feel like some lists are more beneficial than others.

Do these kinds of rankings rather than the ones we did. The Baseball Forecaster by Ron Shandler does a decent job of presenting data in previous stats-based tables that mimic the kind of tiers I’m talking about. However, you have to build these talent tiers yourself.

No one can account for the future, and no one can account for the daily changes in fantasy. Nailing down where to put which player in which talent tier can only come with research. I hope over the month of March to focus on building some of these talent tiers for you guys. Until then, happy spring training to all.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Ben Pritchett 2012-02-27T09:10:15+00:00 The catcher and the why http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/catcher-and-the-why/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/catcher-and-the-why/#When:06:19:15 Fantasy Pros and our own Nick Fleder for putting together our positional rankings. As far as I know, this will be the first time THT has released any form of consensus rankings. It’s a proud day for me, and I know you all will appreciate the painstaking work it takes to get this done. As I’m sure Nick will agree, our rankings weren’t necessarily a draft cheat sheet but a reflection of where we feel these players’ stats will measure up against each other at season’s end.

For day one, we rank the catchers. It's the most undervalued position in fantasy baseball, so it’s generally difficult to get too excited about backstops. I see my catcher as little more than a seat warmer. Most years, I peg a certain catcher or tier of catchers I think the room is undervaluing, and I make sure I get my guy. I hardly ever draft the number one catcher or even a top five catcher for that matter.

Last year, I targeted Wilson Ramos and Miguel Montero, and that worked out quite well. In leagues with deeper benches, I will usually draft a lower level catcher and pair him with a top prospect. This tag-team method would probably be my favorite strategy in addressing the catcher position. However, all drafts are different, and you can never tell how a draft is going to play out until you are already well into the battle.

I have concluded that Mike Napoli is the number one catcher in 2012. Upon finally getting his chance to shine in Texas, Napoli built a second half that was nothing short of magical.

I didn’t see his 2011 breakout coming. I knew Napoli had prodigious power unrivaled by any other catcher, but I never thought he would hit as consistently as he did. To think he put up 30 HR/75 RBI/.320 AVG in only 439 plate appearances is astonishing. The fact that he continued that success well into the playoffs further solidifies his elite status.

At 32 years old, Napoli isn’t getting any younger, so being “elite” could be a very short experience for him, but his 2011 season wasn’t so different from his 2008 season. The only real difference was plate appearances, batting eye, and some luck, all of which are trending upwards. Obviously he will face some extreme batting average regression; I’ll bet my house he doesn’t hit .320 again. If he’s your guy, I totally understand, but I won’t reach for him in the first three rounds, which is where he will undoubtedly be selected.

Like Napoli, Carlos Santana has caught the imaginations of experts and fans alike.

First, getting 658 plate appearances from your catcher is unfair. No other catcher was within a hundred plate appearances of Santana in 2011. That in itself should drive the value of a catcher, but Santana offers so much more. He’ll be only 25 at the beginning of the season, and he’s also a switch-hitter. He has 30+ home run potential, and I think most scouts see him as a higher batting average guy than he was last season.

The Indians have already saidthat Santana is the face and future of their franchise. so look for them to continue to shelter him more at first base. We all love catchers who spend significant time at other positions. I don’t think any catcher profiles as a better source for RBIs and runs. His awesome potential will cost an owner roughly the same as Napoli, which drives me out of the bidding. I’ll stand on the sidelines and admire Santana, but he probably won’t be my catcher in 2012.

Never, and I will repeat this, never have I ever seen so many viable catchers for a basic 5X5, 12-team standard league. After Napoli and Santana, at least eight catchers could all have the same value as the other. In my rankings you’ll see that I have Brian McCann as my No. 3 catcher, but my No. 8, Yadier Molina, could easily put up comparable numbers.

So, if you are like me, this conundrum really gets your engines thumping. As soon as Santana and Napoli, jump off the board, I will immediately go into value mode. I have McCann ranked as No. 3 for a variety of reasons. I am a fan of the Braves so I have seen enough of McCann to know what he’s capable of producing. Before his injuries, 2011 was shaping up to be the finest year of his career. He should be healthy and firmly set in the middle of a lineup that will produce better than it did last year, surely. McCann offers generally the same skill set as Santana but should be had two or three rounds later. I have him drafted in the fiffh round. Anything beyond that, and I’m drafting McCann.

After McCann, I struggled among Joe Mauer, Buster Posey, Matt Wieters and Miguel Montero for the fourth spot in my rankings. I love the potential of every one for different reasons.

With much angst, I chose Mauer. The reason I like Mauer isn’t because he’s safe. He’s not. It’s not because he’s coming off some sort of breakout season. That’s already happened. When Mauer is healthy he is a great source of runs and RBIs for a catcher. He averaged around 93 runs and 85 RBIs in the three seasons before last year. I think he still had double digit power even though the 28 home runs of 2009 are conclusively an aberration at this point. Target Field will also squander any future power potential.

The No. 1 reason I love Mauer is because he improves your batting average so much that it allows you to draft a Mark Reynolds or Ryan Howard-like player without fear of what those players will do to your batting average. Mauer is still an elite hitter, and he won’t come much cheaper than he will in 2012. If there’s any catcher who has the best chance of finding a way onto all my fantasy teams, it’s Mauer.

Picking Posey over Wieters will be considered blasphemy by my colleagues I’m sure, but I’m don’t care. I’m not as sold on Wieters as everybody else, apparently. He batted only .235 against right-handed pitching in 2011, which is the worst of his career. His career batting average rates have been directly tied to his BABIP successes and failures. I worry that he may constantly struggle with a certain level of volatility.

I also understand that Wieters fits the profile of a guy I typically like, but I’m not convinced that he’s ready yet. I need to see more, and I’m not willing to pay the price to find out. In our THT mock draft, Wieters was selected third overall among catchers. He may warrant such consideration when the season is over, but I’ll play it a little safer. Last tidbit on Wieters: power seems legit, and there’s no reason to think he can’t hit more than 20 home runs again 2012.

Posey is a poor man’s Mauer. Scouts love the term “Mauer with power,” and I have seen that said about both Wieters and Posey. Where I see Wieters as diet Mauer with power, I see Posey as just Mauer. Posey is obviously less proven than Maue,r but can’t be considered as big an injury risk. One freak play can’t label a player as an injury risk. I’d say he has an injury "mark." I assume that Posey will be healthy, and the Giants seem ready to play him more at first base this year to preserve that health. I secretly want Posey more than Mauer, but I don’t know if I have the guts to show that in my rankings.

When I entered 2011, I was ready to proceed with Montero as my catcher. He was so cheap, and no one believed he could improve on his successful 2009 season. I would point to his disappointing 2010 season as the reason. I like Montero because Arizona likes Montero. He isn’t going anywhere, and with ISOs much like all the more beloved catchers ranked ahead of him, he has a very underrated power stroke. If he continues to put up solid, across-the-board numbers and sees some increase in his power, Montero should still be a bargain in 2012, but this may be the last year to get him on the cheap. I doubt I will invest in Montero in any leagues other than my N- only leagues. He’s stable, but his ceiling isn’t quite as high as the others ranked ahead of him.

Speaking of stability, Yadier Molina took an impressive leap forward in 2011. He finally established himself as something more than the best defensive catcher and a solid source of batting average. He hit 14 home runs and didn’t compromise his other stats.

If he maintains power somewhere in the same level as last year, there really isn’t a catcher you can consider more stable than Molina. According to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Molina looks “buff.” I don’t know how to properly handle these kinds of news tidbits, but if he’s stronger than last year, why not think he can hit a few more home runs? Molina is a pick for guys looking to play it safe. For example, if you’ve already added some riskier selections or unreliables, then Molina is a perfect catcher to use for balance.

I often will draft from a lower tier of catchers, Nos. 9 through 15. If your bench is deep enough, I strongly encourage you to draft one of these lower-tier catchers preferably Wilson Ramos, Geovanny Soto or Kurt Suzuki, then grab the top prospect, which is Devin Mesoraco.

I don’t think there is enough difference among all these catchers to go into too much depth. Soto is power and experience. Suzuki is the RBIs and runs guy of the bunch. Ramos is the head of this group. If not for his kidnapping this winter, I would probably have him in the tier with the more valuable catchers, but I worry about his mind. Stress can be a powerful thing and could affect his performance. So even though he broke out in his first season as a starter, I’m not ready to pronounce him a star.

He is far from a slam-dunk but I could definitely see myself grabbing Mesoraco as his counterpart. That could be a dynamic duo especially in deep, two-catcher or NL-only leagues. I love the up-and-coming prospects, and none is more heralded than Mesoraco. Don’t be surprised if he unseats Ryan Hanigan as the Reds' primary catcher by the All-Star break. He is every bit as good as his hype.

What is amazing is the number of catchers lying in wait. Salvador Perez seems like he could have some promise, but expectations for him should be tempered. Wilin Rosario is a future star, but he still has some growing to do. Yasmani Grandal, now with the San Diego Padres, could be impressive if given the opportunity. Ryan Lavarnway is the reigning Boston Red Sox minor league player of the year and could be ready to expand on his late season successes.

Basically, there’s a lot to get excited about for the future of fantasy catchers. This list may look very different in 2013.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Ben Pritchett 2012-02-13T06:19:15+00:00 What was I thinking? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/what-was-i-thinking/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/what-was-i-thinking/#When:09:39:15 here.

When I took on the duty of organizing and putting together the mock draft, never did it occur to me that I would be forced into the No. 1 pick. I hate drafting first, and not for the reasons you may think. Sure, it’s a nice problem to have. You get your choice of anybody. Who could have a problem with that?

Personally, I really hate the length of time in between picks, which is probably the reason why I am a proponent of the auction draft. I like to pick players on my terms. I enjoy taking the bidding process to decide how much I value a guy. In a snake draft, you are a slave to the draft order and the clock. I digress.

Upon learning of my first pick, I narrowed my selection down to four guys: Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp, Miguel Cabrera, and Jose Bautista. I labored through several different scenarios. I had it all narrowed down to Pujols, then God and Mike Ilitch gave Cabrera back his third-base eligibility. For me, my decision became clear. Miguel was my man.

Even though third base isn't as bad as it was last year, that distinction is just enough to set Cabrera above Pujols. Cabrera is old in baseball years, but not in real life. He’s only 29. He’s every bit as capable as Pujols to put up the same stats, but I would much rather my third baseman flourish than my first baseman.

One note I made in my head during our mock draft was that first base isn’t quite as deep as you may think. So I wouldn’t sleep on the middle tier, because once those guys are gone, it gets really nasty.

Here I am, ecstatic with my selection of Cabrera. I was set on drafting another big first baseman like Prince Fielder or Mark Teixeira and either Mike Stanton or Ryan Braun during my swing picks. I had underestimated the stock of both Stanton and Braun as they flew off in the second round before I got the chance. I adjusted and grabbed Tex. So I decided the remaining hitters weren’t quite up to the talent level of the starting pitching so I nailed Tim Lincecum down as my ace.

With Lincecum, Cabrera, and Teixeira in my quiver, I aimed my sights on speed and talent. Nelson Cruz was the most talented player on the board, and Michael Bourn was the best source of speed to help offset all the power I was starting to amass. Bourn is a very undervalued commodity even if he loses some of his batting average in 2012. With an assumption that Cruz could stay healthy, I am very happy with the way my team is starting to look.

As we entered round six, I really wanted a studly catcher, but Derek Ambrosino decided he needed to not only draft Brian McCann but also Joe Mauer, a sleeper pick of mine. Ambrosino’s greed forced me to go back to the starting pitching. I struggled with the safe pick of Matt Cain or the riskier, more-talented Adam Wainwright. Anybody that knows how I play fantasy baseball knows the decision I will make here. When in doubt, draft talent, so the result was Wainwright.

I paired him with Kevin Youkilis, who had dropped way too far. I understand the age, health, and production problems he displayed in 2011. But I don’t need him to mash 30 home runs. Throughout Youky’s career he’s been an OBP monster. That’s what he gives me. He also gives me some flexibility at the hot corner if I were to need to trade later. I know this is a mock draft, and it’s silly to prepare for trading, but that’s how you prepare, people!

Okay, here’s where I start taking some chances. Lured in by the two front-end aces and underwhelmed by the hitters available, I paired Yu Darvish with Josh Johnson to complete a solid front four in my rotation. I’m not usually so pitcher-heavy, but I absolutely love the talent of all four starting pitchers I’ve assembled.

Everybody is wrong about their hesitation against Darvish, and I’m tired of saying why. Johnson is ridiculously good when he toes the rubber. How often he toes that rubber is the real question, but I think that’s worth a ninth-round pick to figure out.

I spent the next four picks filling out my positional needs with upside. Andre Ethier will bounce back now that he’s healthy. Ike Davis will benefit from the cozier home park and natural growth. I’m not usually a Dustin Ackley fan, but he was far-and-away the best second baseman available, and he should help my average. Alexei Ramirez gives me a solid shortstop. I have him pegged as an upper-middle-tier option up the middle. He still has potential, but if he continues to do what he’s been doing, then that would be fine for this roster.

I decided to go all talent with the next four picks. Cory Luebke is a stud in the making. For those that don’t know, you should really acquaint yourself with this guy. Part of the reason the Padres were ready to let Mat Latos move on was because Luebke is ready to take that next step and lead that staff.

Yes, I did draft Darvish and Yoenis Cespedes. I literally looked at the players available, and I couldn’t get the scouts' comparison of his power to Mike Stanton. With a 70-plus scouting grade on his speed, we really don’t know how good this guy really is. He’ll strike out, I’m sure, but I’m all about spending a fifteenth-round pick sheerly on chance, especially in the outfield position.

My next two picks were pretty obvious and easy for me. I still felt like I could add some more speed, and I still hadn’t garnered the services of a closer, hence my selections of Jason Motte and Mike Trout.

I believe Carlos Quentin has the power to still hit home runs in Petco if he stays healthy. That’s a really big “if,” but there’s little risk this late. Quentin will serve as a solid backup to Trout and Cespedes.

I absolutely love Jim Johnson. I’m glad he’s getting a chance to close, but I secretly hoped he would get his chance to start. He’s a special talent that the rest of the baseball world doesn’t know yet.

Round twenty marks a stretch of five out of seven picks I do not like. Gordon Beckham was really the best available middle infielder, but I’m by no means sold on a breakout. I don’t know if I’d draft him on a real team, but he’ll do as a middle infielder. If not for the forcing of Jason Kubel as my last pick (we had to roster an actual DH), I would have drafted Tyler Pastornicky to back up the unstable Beckham.

I learned my lesson that I will need to draft a catcher, earlier than I did especially in a two-catcher league. I drafted Geovany Soto and prayed that Devin Mesoraco would last to me in the next pick. Well, he didn’t, and I settled with Salvador Perez.

Perez hit very well in Kansas City last year, but I’d be fooling myself if I thought he could replicate those stats. However, the full-time gig is his to lose, and Wil Myers has moved from behind the plate to the outfield, so he doesn’t have that talented rookie pushing him. It’s worth a wait-and-see.

I don’t like Francisco Liriano anymore, but I didn’t have much choice. I probably should have drafted Matt Thornton with this pick, but hindsight is always twenty-twenty.

My other two pertinent picks were Yonder Alonso and Jair Jurrjens. I was very excited to get Alonso this late. He has pole-to-pole gap power, and he’ll finally get his chance to show the baseball world his skill set. It’s a shame it’s taken this long.

I’m not a huge believer in Jurrjens, but at some point, the hate has to end. Round 25 is about that time. Jurrjens enters 2012 still recovering from his injuries, but that has been the theme with my pitching staff. Why stop now?

Here’s the final product:

C- Geovany Soto CHC
C- Salvador Perez KC
1B- Mark Teixeira NYY
2B- Dustin Ackley SEA
3B- Miguel Cabrera DET
SS- Alexei Ramirez CHW
CI- Kevin Youkilis BOS
MI- Gordon Beckham CHW
OF- Nelson Cruz TEX
OF- Michael Bourn ATL
OF- Andre Ethier LAD
OF- Yoenis Cespedes FA
OF- Mike Trout LAA
DH- Ike Davis NYM
B- Carlos Quentin OF SD
B- Yonder Alonso OF SD
B- Jason Kubel OF ARI

P- Tim Lincecum SP SFO
P- Adam Wainwright SP STL
P- Josh Johnson SP FLA
P- Yu Darvish SP TEX
P- Cory Luebke SP SD
P- Francisco Liriano SP MIN
P- Jair Jurrjens SP ATL
P- Jason Motte RP STL
P- Jim Johnson RP BAL

I’m not overly impressed, but I’m not embarrassed. I was able to get a lot of my guys, and I missed a lot of my guys. Personally, I felt Paul Singman’s team was the best, but I enjoyed the practice.

I hope that I, along with you, will take this opportunity to refine some of my flawed draft practices. I won’t make a real team this volatile. I know that, but I don’t see where I necessarily would have strayed too far from the guys I drafted. I like eighty percent of my team, and that’s not too bad. I look forward to seeing your opinions and comments.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Ben Pritchett 2012-01-30T09:39:15+00:00 THT mock draft 2012 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/tht-mock-draft-2012/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/tht-mock-draft-2012/#When:14:58:15
First we need to give a collective thanks to Mock Draft Central. MDC hosted the THT mock without issue and put everything together for us amazingly quickly.

Here’s the draft order:

1. Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times
2. Derek Carty, Baseball Prospectus
3. Robert Burghardt, TG Fantasy Baseball
4. Mike Stein, Fantasy Judgment
5. Dave Shovein, The Hardball Times
6. Paul Singman, The Hardball Times
7. Al O’Harra,Fantasy Sports R Us
8. Derek Ambrosino, The Hardball Times
9. Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times, Fantasy Baseballl 365
10. Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms
11. Nick Fleder, The Hardball Times
12. Brad Johnson, The Hardball Times

I know you didn’t come here for the draft order, but I want everyone to notice the writers/owners of the other sites that were so gracious to lend their own expertise to our draft. Without them, we would not have been able to accomplish this draft, especially in such short notice. I personally know or compete against all these guys. They are some of the best minds in the business. I have visited all the sites above, and they all offer something a little different. Please take the time to visit their sites and see for yourself.

Now here are the results for The Hardball Times Mock Draft 2012 . We used the standard 5X5 rotisserie settings with a 1,600 innings pitched limit, 20-game eligibility. For all you fantasy nerds, including me, I also have the THT mock draft spreadsheet. Over the next weeks, we will be doing some further breakdown. For the time being, feel free to digest these results and comment below.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Ben Pritchett 2012-01-28T14:58:15+00:00 Players I like more than you do http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/players-i-like-more-than-you/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/players-i-like-more-than-you/#When:09:38:15
He took us on a roller coaster of emotions that I didn’t want to get off. He was borderline brilliant. As an artist, he took his one-hour time slot and turned it into a two-and-half hour masterpiece.

I didn’t agree with everything he said. Actually, I would say we probably disagree on just about everything, but that didn’t change my appreciation for his talent. It’s a talent that the mainstream comedy industry has relegated to small clubs and occasional late-night television show appearances.

Granted, May can be a larger-than-life figure and push every envelope put in front of him, but he seems to be really developing into greatness. Just recently, May became very ill, ill nearly to the point of death. He’s battled back, and it’s morphed his crude humor into a morally impactful journey.

I must say that my feelings for Ralphie May extend past the stage. I actually work another job that lets me meet every kind of celebrity. From country singers to rappers, from athletes to actors, I’ve met them all over the last 10 years. Some have been great, and some weren’t so great.

Of all the people I’ve met, May has had the greatest impact on me personally. He’s gracious and genuine. I feel like he’s my best friend, and I guarantee he doesn’t even know my last name. Even in a hard day for him physically, he’ll stand ready to deliver a joke to make you smile. His heart is really as big as his waistline, and I am a fan for life.

Sorry for my tangent, but this kind of guy got me really thinking about some players in baseball that I know I like more than you. I will try over the next several paragraphs to gently push my bias upon you. There are a few that will be harder to convince you of than others, but my mission remains the same.

David Wright 3B NYM - If you build it, and David Wright is awful, you should rebuild it. I can’t even get my wife to let me clear out the bonus room so that I can have a retreat in my own house, but Wright has the Mets redesigning a whole stadium for him. Maybe the Mets love Wright more.

So now that I’m depressed, let’s look at these changes. It looks as though the Mets have reduced the gap dimensions. Does Wright still have gap power? I don’t know. His line-drive rate has been in a free fall for the past two years, but his actual power numbers are trending in a positive. I would like to think that the Mets' decision to build around Wright is indicative of their faith in the 29-year-old to regain his stroke, but I can’t tell for sure. I blame it on his back injury and move along.

I have no rationale for liking him this season, none at all. For a site like THT, liking a guy without a statistically backed reason is frowned upon. So everyone collectively frown and get over it.

I’m sure I’ll get the commenter who will point to Pablo Sandoval’s potential to improve, or that Brett Lawrie could be had far cheaper and put up similar numbers. I understand the argument that Kevin Youkilis and Ryan Zimmerman have just as good a chance at success as Wright, but you can’t help what you feel. I also believe Wright’s value will cool from being a second-round pick by the time draft season goes into full swing.

I see him as a mid-third rounder. When he falls out of the second round, I’m buying. For you auction types, I think Wright’s price should fall in drafts. This, too, may be just a feeling, but every “expert” in the industry has already thrown Wright under the bus for 2012. I’m not ready to do that, and I’m willing to bet that his talent rises, as it always does with elite players.

Wright will be my riskiest, most biased player pick for 2012, and I could die by this one. But I’d rather be Wright than wrong. My real mission was to sneak that joke in. Mission accomplished.

David Price SP TB - Going from a 19-6 season to a losing one has to be a mental drain on a starting pitcher. I can’t fathom how you can understand improvement when your win/loss record makes that dramatic a shift. But that’s just what Price is having to deal with as we enter 2012.

Last season, Price increased his innings from 208 to 224 and his strikeout rate from 8.11 to 8.75. He decreased his walk rate down from 3.41 to 2.53. His BABIP and his strand rate are destined to get more luck eventually. If we see more growth from Price as a pitcher, he could get that ERA under 3.00, easily rack up 220-plus strikeouts and find a few more wins along the way.

I will put my reputation out there that Price will be the ace of not only the Rays, but also the AL East. At 26 years old, this could be Price’s big season to begin a trend of many more great years in the future. I plan to target Price as my No. 1 pitcher in drafts. I suggest you do the same, for this Price is worth the price. I’d say I’m two-for-two, bad boy.

Ubaldo Jimenez SP CLE - Oh, I don’t think anybody’s had the fall from grace as quickly as Jimenez. His trade to Cleveland only intensified an already disappointing 2011 season. Jimenez pitched one of the best half-seasons in baseball history in early 2010. Since then, his ERA has fluctuated more than the housing market. There are, however, some very interesting positives underlying Jimenez’ awful stat lines.

First of all, only Fausto "Roberto Hernandez Heredia" Carmona had a worse strand rate than Jimenez in 2011. At 65 percent, Jimenez couldn’t keep anybody from scoring. That’s a positive, because unbelievably bad strand rates in talented pitchers tend to correct themselves over time. His BABIP against was a hefty .314, good for twelfth-unluckiest starter in the game.

I’d say pretty much all of Jimenez's 2011 advanced stats were similar to his career averages. He’ll walk batters and strike out just under nine a game. He’s still filthy and only saw a slight velocity decrease (-2.6 mph) that probably was linked to some health issues Jimenez battled while playing with the Rockies.

Pay attention to his stock come draft day. Jimenez definitely will have his detractors, and there’s really nothing to detract. Live with the dicey WHIP and draft the skills of this 28-year-old hurler. He’ll likely deliver profit in the middle rounds of drafts. I see him as a No. 3 starter on a fantasy team.

Dexter Fowler OF COL - Fowler will be my prototypical, post-hype sleeper for this list. Buzz is rumbling around Colorado that Fowler has trimmed down his body fat and added seven pounds of muscle while working out with teammates this offseason. This could be that typical athlete chatter, but it could also mark a change in work ethic for a guy that really needs to start proving himself.

Toward the end of the 2011 season, Fowler really started to show off those five tools we’ve always heard he had. His OPS was 1.000, .799, .901 in the months of July, August, and September. He stole 10 bases during that stretch, as well. Earlier this offseason, Carlos Gonzalez linked his future success to that of the health of Fowler.

Fowler enters 2012 as the undisputed leadoff hitter on a team that will do its best to drive him in. He still projects as a double-digit home run guy who could legitimately steal 35-plus bases. He strikes me as a 6-foot-4 Shane Victorino. I think we could really see him push those numbers in 2012, and I doubt many fantasy managers will be drafting him. Most of those managers who want a guy like this will focus on Cameron Maybin, who will cost significantly more.

Brandon Belt 1B/OF SFO - I am an admitted Belt fan. He made me look foolish in 2011, but I’m not ready to give up on him just yet. There’s no more Pat Burrell in San Francisco, leaving Belt the opportunity to carve out everyday playing time to prove himself.

In Belt’s final 130 at-bats, he hit eight home runs. The power for this lefty is legit. There’s really no reason to think he can’t belt 25-plus home runs next year. I refuse to believe that his contact percentage will continue to be as dismal as it was in 2011. You must remember Belt will be only 22 when the first pitch is thrown in 2012. He has ridiculous ability but still needs to show more discipline at the plate.

I believe that his successes against lefty pitchers and failures against righties will flip-flop in 2012. We’ll also get a chance to see how Belt reacts to less pressure. The glimmer has faded off this rookie, and that could really work to his and your advantage.

I don’t think we'll see Belt reach his full potential this year, but he’ll bring great power numbers to offset the batting average woes. That’s why I’m bringing in his services on all my NL-only teams if at all possible. He should also be a great one-dollar play later in drafts.

Oh, and don’t forget about Yu Darvish. I like Yu more than you. Well, I like him more than every one of you other than Bobby Valentine. Darvish is ready to succeed now, but I’ve already lamented my feelings about him earlier this month in my article, Ben's 2012 wish list-starting pitchers.

I’m interested to see how everyone feels. Do you like these guys more than me, or have I completely lost it? Leave those comments, and we’ll work it out.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Ben Pritchett 2012-01-23T09:38:15+00:00 Ye believe in me, believe also in Mike Stanton http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/ye-believe-in-me-believe-also-in-mike-stanton/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/ye-believe-in-me-believe-also-in-mike-stanton/#When:09:37:15 Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson. I told you that both of them would accomplish this feat.

Calling Bautista was relatively easy even though everybody in the industry said that he couldn’t maintain. I argued that he would be better, sacrificing some home runs for batting average.

Granderson was a little bit more of a gut call. He always has had a good power stroke for a little player, but I was infatuated with how his swing would benefit by the move to Yankee Stadium. I was fortunate that feeling was right.

That’s what playing fantasy baseball is all about. It’s about taking the stats—basic and advanced—scouting reports, newswire, gut calls, and personal preference and forming a stable, statistical-accumulating team structure.

Mike Stanton is my first flag-staking player for 2012. Well, you may say that's an easy call. Stanton should be drafted in the first four rounds, which in itself makes him worthy to everybody. According to the 2012 Baseball Forecaster, 80 percent of all players that will yield first-round value are found in the first four rounds of drafts. Less than half of the players drafted in the first round actually yield first-round value. So this is really the most interesting and exciting part of drafting to me. We face a conundrum of making your early picks count even though the odds are stacked against you.

Assuming that just five players picked in the first round actually retain first-round value, that leaves ten draft positions available to be filled by players drafted in the next three rounds. Using the 80 percent success rate discovered by the Forecaster guys, that means only seven of the remaining 45 possible players will deliver first-round-caliber stats.

You have roughly a 15.6 percent chance per round to nail a first-round player while drafting in rounds two through four. When you break it down like that, you realize why we feel such great satisfaction when these players succeed. You would have a greater chance at winning lottery scratch-offs or playing blackjack. So how do we improve our odds? Well, I believe that old-fashioned work always beats any other variable, whether it be draft position, luck, bias, etc.

I have just begun to research for my Fantasy Sports R Us NL-only expert league, and I really just stumbled upon Stanton. Honestly, going into last year, I felt like Stanton’s stock was too high. I was unwilling to pay such a high price for a 21-year-old hitter. Today, I stand corrected. Not only do I think Stanton will improve on his studly sophomore season, he will be a top-15 hitter. That will also make him a borderline first-round talent.

Will Stanton get drafted in the first round? No, and he shouldn’t be. Most consider him a third-round pick. I will have no reservations with someone taking him in the second round. I will slate him as a late first-round/early second-round pick in my FSIC NL-only league. I would hope to hold out to the third round in standard formats. Don’t hold your breath that he lasts that long, though. In auction leagues, it should be significantly easier to gauge his value.

Why is Stanton a first-round player in 2012? The two guys I mentioned earlier in this article were ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in isolated power (ISOP) last season. That’s Bautista and Granderson for those of you not paying attention. Stanton was third. The funny thing about ISOP is that it usually hits a peak in ages 24-26. Stanton is only 22. It’s scary to think what his ceiling might be. If he sees ISOP growth in 2012, you should expect 40-plus home runs.

Secondly, the table is now set for Stanton to feast. Assuming that Stanton bats cleanup, let’s put newly acquired Jose Reyes at leadoff. Emilio Bonifacio can handle batting second, and Hanley Ramirez should be just fine batting third.

Stanton couldn’t ask for a better group of guys to get on base in front of him. Lots of what I’m able to decipher about Stanton is speculation, but if he gets the same number of plate appearances as last year, he will hit more than 100 RBIs with all those speed demons batting ahead of him.

Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez should be good enough to give Stanton protection in the lineup and should help him improve his run total. The 2011 campaign saw both Morrison and Sanchez disappoint for different reasons, but one or both should bounce back. Confidence can do a lot for a ballclub, and I think the Marlins, especially Morrison and Sanchez, could finally regain some of what was lost in 2011 if they can catch fire early in the 2012.

Stanton improved his walk rates and strikeout rates in 2011. I can only assume that with his athletic ability and young age, he should continue to show growth, even with his propensity to strike out in bunches. A better OBP and batting eye would further improve his chances of putting up gigantic numbers and should help his batting average.

Stanton’s batting average will always be his largest liability and could be the difference between him having first-round value or fourth-round value. I’m willing to gamble that he hits in the .270s in 2012. I can live with that if he sees the growth I expect him to have in all the other categories.

Here’s my favorite nugget of information I was able to dredge up. Jeff Zimmerman of Rotographs took batted ball information and deduced that Stanton had an average increase of 20 feet on his hit distance from 2010 to 2011. That was the third-best increase of all players, and as I can see, his average of 322 feet was best in baseball. Basically, if Stanton gets a hold of a pitch, it goes a long way, but we all knew that.

Further evidence of that raw power was his 15 “no doubt” home runs. “No doubt” home runs is a category developed by Hittracker that assigns a categorical value to the distance of home runs. “No doubt” represents the highest possible tier for home run distance. Only Bautista hit more “no doubt” home runs than Stanton in 2011.

If you are still wavering, I must also mention the fact that Stanton stole four bases in the second half of 2011. Hoping for double-digit steals may not be totally crazy. An improved batting average, OBP and protection could give Stanton a better incentive to advance as a runner. His baserunning skills are a far cry from average, but most powerful middle-of-the-order hitters can luck into double-digit steals if they are in a breakout season. This may all be wishful thinking, but it’s not totally insane.

So we’ve established that Stanton is powerful, athletic and ready to succeed at a very young baseball age. Let’s look at what kind of line I project he will have in 2012. Stanton should post a line of .271 AVG/ 44 HRs/ 123 RBIs/ 102 Rs/ 10 SBs. I know that these numbers are lofty, but I almost feel like I am undervaluing what kind of season he could have because I’m afraid of being too bold to avoid claims of lunacy.

In my FSIC team, I plan to get a stable first rounder like Joey Votto, pair him with Stanton, and add a stolen-base hound like Michael Bourn in the third. I would be ecstatic if these were my first three picks in my NL only league. But man plans; God laughs.

Do you think Stanton has what it takes? Please let me know what you think below. Also, feel free to give me your 16 percent guy that you plan to target in rounds 2-4. There’s obvious risk with Stanton and the Marlins in general, but that’s why it’s a 15 percent chance and not 100 percent. Happy hunting.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Ben Pritchett 2012-01-16T09:37:15+00:00 What do you do with Ryan Braun? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/what-do-you-do-with-ryan-braun/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/what-do-you-do-with-ryan-braun/#When:09:30:15 Ryan Braun should be the consensus No. 1 overall pick for the 2012 season. On Dec. 11, I would have said he doesn’t deserve to even be on anyone’s fantasy radar at all.

What changed? Well, I was shocked to learn that Braun, one of my own personal favorite players, had tested positive for PEDs. Actually, it was a “banned” substance. You can google what that substance is speculated to be. I won’t substantiate those rumors here.

Historically I am a massive steroid user apologist, as are most fantasy sports enthusiasts, I would think. We tend to be all about winning the statistics and have little regard for the purity/integrity of how those stats are accumulated. I may be generalizing, and forgive me for that, but this isn’t doing your taxes, and I’m not leading the free world. I want guys that produce. You produce, I’m happy. If you don’t produce, I cut/trade you. It’s all pretty simple.

Braun struck me differently. I didn’t believe it. From all accounts that I’ve ever read about him, I have never heard one thing that would indicate him as a purposeful cheater, so I was very disappointed. My passion that spurned my love for him as a player quickly turned to disdain for him as a 2012 fantasy option. Fifty games will be the sentence if Braun’s suspension is upheld.

Here we are a month later, and my emotions have settled. I’ve started to think about how I could use this to my advantage. We are going to assume that Braun is not granted his appeal seeing as most of your fellow drafters will be doing the same. So in what round can we expect Braun to be taken? I can’t imagine he will be anywhere near a forty dollar value or near the first three rounds of any redraft league as he was prior to December.

I went to Mock Draft Central to get the pulse of his current ADP. Well, that was a total fail. MDC’s player rankings are way off, and only three team managers were present for the ten-team mock. I left the draft room to gander upon the ADP reports they have listed. Braun apparently rated from the second pick all the way to pick 96. For the sake of argument, I’m going to take both the second pick out as an outlier, or rather a draft that was done prior to the news of the 50-game suspension.

To understand what you should pay for Braun, you need to understand what you could expect statistically from him. I set out on this journey to help myself and you get a better, more reasonable expectation for Braun’s 2012 season. So, obviously, Braun is facing a season where he can play a maximum of 112 games. Since Braun has never played 162 games in a season, you can’t automatically assume he plays all 112 of those games.

Braun’s career average is 154 games, not including his midseason call-up year during his rookie season. Furthermore, I didn’t include any of his rookie stats in my averages considering the amount of games he played and the outlier-like stats he was able to accrue. We will not dismiss these stats; however, we will return to this rookie season later in my analysis.

If you take that 154-game average Braun amassed during his four years of service time and project it across 112 games, you will come to about 106-107 games. Taking this 106.45-game average and inputting that against his career averages, it’s actually quite easy to come up with a fun look at what a 2012 season could look like it. Granted, this methodology is as basic as it gets, but I think it will go far towards proving my point.

Here’s the line I was able to come up with: .310 AVG/ 22 HR/ 72 R/ 75 RBI/ 14 SB. All those stats were slightly rounded up. I must first say that Braun’s value will be greatly different to head-to-head and dynasty leaguers than it will be to a standard 5x5 roto league. Braun will have significantly more value in H2H than roto because of replacement value.

Roto is about amassing the most possible stats out of a set amount of games. H2H is about beating an opponent’s lineup any single week. Stashing Braun on the bench would be more valuable to a H2H gamer because of his ability to dramatically affect the second half of the season and even into the fantasy playoffs.

For you roto-heads out there, I think Braun may be worth more than you think. When I set out to write this piece, I had Braun pegged as a seventh-to-eight-round guy. Once I averaged out that projected stat line above, I began to have a little different feeling.

Bear with me here, but how about pairing the pick of Braun with another emerging outfielder that surely won’t cost much? I like Chris Heisey or Dayan Viciedo. If you take these cheap outfielders and live with their production for fifty games, how good a collective season could we be talking about for this OF position on your starting lineup?

If Heisey hits 8-10 home runs during that span, we’re talking a 30-plus HR season when you combine that with Braun. It’s very possible, seeing as he put 18 HR in 279 at-bats, and it sounds like he will be in for everyday playing time. If Viciedo hits 4-5 homers with nearly a .300 average, your talking about a surefire second-round pick. I love Viciedo as a sneaky outfield play this year with the departure of Carlos Quentin to San Diego.

I almost feel it would be stupid not to take advantage of everybody else’s propensity to stay away from Braun. I think I like the idea of bringing in a stud on a suspension because I can take the value and strategize how to deal with the playing time gap. Anybody I get to fill that gap should do a good enough job to make this OF position uber-valuable.

Let’s get back to that rookie season. I had so much fun looking at Braun because his stat lines are built for this kind of speculation and strategy. If you look at that rookie season, he appeared in 113 games. That’s an interesting coincidence. In 2007, Braun hit .324 AVG/ 34 HR/ 91 R/ 97 RBI/ 15 SB. Could you imagine getting that stat line out of 112 games? It wouldn’t matter who you got to be the fill-in. You would automatically have first-round value.

That’s what I’m trying to say. Braun’s rookie year is an obvious outlier, but there is a definite “what if.” He has the talent, and you know he’ll have the motivation.

I will say this. I will be paying upwards of $25-30 for Braun, and I will be targeting him beginning in the fourth round. I think he slots in there ahead of Hunter Pence, Adam Jones, and even Alex Gordon. You could argue Josh Hamilton, but I will always overvalue Hamilton.

I am very curious to see if anybody has similar or differing opinions about Mr. Braun. Please feel free to leave your comments and questions below.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Ben Pritchett 2012-01-09T09:30:15+00:00 Neftali Feliz Navidad: relievers turning starters in 2012 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/neftali-feliz-navidad-relievers-turning-starters-in-2012/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/neftali-feliz-navidad-relievers-turning-starters-in-2012/#When:09:32:15
It has become the “en vogue” thing to turn talented relievers into starting pitchers. Whether that was the intention from the beginning for their careers or not, more and more prospects are taking this path to the big leagues. For fantasy purposes, it can be a source of gold mining for cheap production.

During the 2011 season, we saw two pitchers in particular make the transition from reliever to starter without missing a beat. Alexi Ogando posted a very respectable 3.51 ERA and showed flashes of brilliance during stretches. As with all reliever-to-starter prospects, there’s always the fatigue due to the increase in innings pitched.

Philip Humber was another youthful pitcher who pitched very well for the White Sox when tasked with the change over to starter. He managed to decrease his walks and maintain a solid strikeout rate above six per nine innings.

Two other notable relievers turned starters in 2011 are Kyle McClellan and Josh Collmenter, both of whom had both some success and some failure.

First and foremost, please do not build your draft strategy around a transitioning pitcher. There is much risk involved, and as Steve Treder wrote in "Examining the relief of relieving," relief pitching is significantly easier than starting. Not only should you anticipate regression from a reliever turning starter, you should plan around it. That being said, a find like Ogando or Humber could have been a real jewel of a draft, especially in a AL- or NL-only league.

I play in a very high-stakes weekly league where a reliever who accumulates starter innings loads is extremely valuable. I was able to manipulate this to my advantage, as none of my other 14 leaguemates has realized this strategy, and it’s become a staple in my draft plans.

If any of you find yourselves in a similar situation, please enjoy my research below. If you do not, then you should still note this as an interesting way to find cheap starting pitcher help. Additionally, I don't think there's been a season with a more intriguing list of relievers making the jump to starter. Let's get this party started.

Neftali Feliz, Texas;- Last year, we all held our collective breaths as ol' Nolan Ryan and company lured us into the tantalizing possibility of the young Feliz as a future ace of the Ranger staff. We were led to believe that Feliz would find himself in this role as soon as 2011. Well, here we are a year later, and it feels as though we will finally get our wish.

The departure of C.J. Wilson has left a huge hole for the Rangers rotation. Ryan and the other front office personnel have been linked to several big-name free agents, including the Japanese sensation, Yu Darvish. Most interesting, however, was the signing of Joe Nathan, which not only opened the door for Feliz in the rotation, but flung it wide open.

Feliz brings a youth and skill set that the Rangers haven’t had in several years. if ever. He has an upper 90s fastball that should sit around the mid 90s as a starter. He complements that with a very solid curveball. It’ll be interesting to see if he starts to refine his change-up and slider as he figures out how to effectively manage a baseball game as a starter.

Feliz will only be 24 as the 2012 season begins, and his talent level has long been admired. Once a centerpiece of the Mark Teixeira deal with Atlanta, he will now slide into a role that we should all be excited about. Feliz offers all the things fantasy managers want out of a high-upside play. He has youth, talent, opportunity and, even more impressively, experience.

Feliz will be a solid middle-round draft pick as a starter. He should at least deliver that much to his owners as a return on investment. I will be watching in spring training to see how his arm reacts to the innings increase, though I’m not worried. I will be drafting him in all leagues where he has that No. 4 starter value.

Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox— I don’t think there’s anybody on this list that I’m more excited about seeing as a starter than Sale. He has everything you would want from a starter and was used solely out of the bullpen in Chi-town because of the sub-par relief corps there. Sale could be drafted as a mid-to-late-round pick. If you are lucky enough to nab him in these later rounds, you will find a sneaky talent who will deliver.

I don’t know if he’ll be as cheap in super-competitive fantasy leagues, but I will spend to secure Sale's talent in my lineup. He's a skilled lefty with an unknown ceiling on his talent, and I don’t think there will be a more fascinating starter as we enter draft season for 2012.

Sale can strike out batters above that nine-per-nine-innings benchmark. He could struggle with control, but I believe that we might end the 2012 season talking about a reliever turned starter who could also be in the Cy Young discussion. I am that confident in his skills. This is coming from the guy who told you to believe in Jose Bautista and that Curtis Granderson could hit 50 home runs as a Yankee. I’m just saying.

Aaron Crow, Kansas City—Crow could be boom or bust for Kansas City in 2012. He was an All-Star as a reliever in 2011. One should wonder why he’s been moved to the rotation when he had such success as a reliever. Part of the reason he was moved to the bullpen in the first place was his mediocre performance in the minors as a starting pitcher. The Royals threw him into the pen as a see-what-sticks maneuver with a young pitcher they planned to move back to starter eventually.

Crow walks a lot of batters, and I don’t think that will change as a starter. Furthermore, I think he’s as risky a guy as there is on this list. Sure, he could strike out a ton of batters and have a sub-3.50 ERA, but the smart money has him slated to have serious growing pains.

Take the strikeouts out of the equation, and you see a pitcher who will kill your WHIP, and that lack of control could lead to a high ERA amid a load of bad pitching performances. I don’t see a lot of wins, either. While I do like Crow as a pitcher, and I also think he could make a great starter one day, I just don’t think he’ll come anywhere close to that in 2012. If you’re an AL-only leaguer looking to speculate, Crow is the perfect guy for you. All others should stay away.

Jim Johnson, Baltimore— You might wonder, “Who is Jim Johnson?” I don’t blame you. This guy could be the find of the year for a fantasy team. He could be one of those guys that goes undrafted or is had for a dollar. Don’t let the cheap price tag fool you. Johnson is a very respected pitcher in his relatively short career. The 2011 season saw him mature as a pitcher and has essentially pushed management to moving him into the Orioles rotation.

Johnson brings a three-pitch repertoire to the table. His fastball is a good pitch that sits in the mid 90s, but watch to see how much velocity he loses as the innings begin to increase. His best pitch is a curveball he uses effectively to both righties and lefties.

Johnson's transition to starter could be very smooth. I don’t know if anybody can get excited about most AL East pitchers, but I definitely would target Johnson in AL-only leagues, and he should be owned in 12-team leagues as a late-round flier. If there’s anybody who fits a “C.J. Wilson” mold, it would be Johnson. You heard it here first.

Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati— This guy is the most interesting player on this list. He may be over-hyped leading into draft day, and thus should be left for others to bid up his price. He should, however, be discussed.

Chapman's shoulder discomfort, brought on while stretching out in the Arizona Fall League, has led to some speculation that he’ll remain in the bullpen during the 2012 season. The Reds also have traded for Mat Latos to solidify their rotation as a front-line starter, so the necessity of Chapman starting has waned.

That being said, Chapman has a world-renowned fastball that we all love to talk about and salivate over, but past that there isn't much else I would want out of a starter. He gets lost on the mound sometimes, and he’s not as overpowering as some of the other young flame throwers (see Kenley Jansen).

Chapman will strike out batters, but he could walk a ton of them as well. I don’t think I’ve ever been a “buyer” on this guy, and you won’t find me doing that now. I like him as a setup man or closer who will get loads of strikeouts. If he’s that, draft him late in deeper leagues. If he’s a starter, definitely pass and let someone else buy the hype.

Rumored relievers to starters:


Joakim Soria, Kansas City— Soria struggled for the first time in his career in 2011. He was a little unlucky and gave up a lot more long balls than he ever had. Nobody would argue that Soria doesn’t have the skills to bounce back to his stellar reliever self, though the A's addition of Jonathan Broxton has caused many to question if Soria could jump into the rotation.

Reports are that Broxton will simply be the setup man in Kansas City, but some—myself included—wonder if the Broxton insurance policy is indicative of Soria having some mental adjustment problems that are all too common to dominant closers who fail. We’ll see, but it’s at least something to monitor going forward.

Daniel Bard, Boston— Bard is rumored to be entering 2012 as a starter for the Red Sox. Some believe he will end up as the closer. I’m not sure which way to go and how to accurately rank him. I like him better as a closer, obviously, but I’d be lying if I didn’t tell you how glued I’m going to be to Bard’s “situation.” Boston's acquisition of Mark Melancon seems to preclude Bard as the closer, but Melancon is far from an experienced stopper, so the job still could be up for grabs.`

Bard's stats were really solid last year. He didn’t walk too many people, and nobody—I mean nobody—hit him. He has such a nasty fast fastball and knee-buckling slider.

I wonder if we’ll see Bard develop that change-up further. He’ll have to if he expects to get major league hitters out the second time through the order. Basically, I love Bard as a closer, and I could love him as a starter. I need to see more, but I think we should all be willing to pay the price to find out.

To recap, I love Sale and Feliz. I’m fascinated by Johnson and Bard. I’m staying away from Crow, Chapman and Soria.

Thanks, everybody, for your continued support of The Hardball Times, and especially the fantasy guys as we continue to try to provide you with the best fantasy information and advice available on the web. Merry Christmas to all.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Ben Pritchett 2011-12-19T09:32:15+00:00 Ben’s 2012 wish list: starting pitchers http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/bens-2012-wish-list-starting-pitchers/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/bens-2012-wish-list-starting-pitchers/#When:10:07:15 Yu had me at konnichiwa. Yu had me when I saw him hit triple digits back in the 2008 World Baseball Classic at the tender age of 22. Yu had me when I realized that his 6-foot-4 frame and repeatable delivery was much more akin to the Western style of pitching than the unorthodox Japanese release points and windups.

Yu had me when I watched him dominate Japanese hitters with a deadly shuto (backwards slider) and other above-average off-speed stuff. Most of all, Yu had me when I heard that he didn’t need to come to America to prove his worth.

But when will the majors have Yu Darvish? Speculation has begun that 2012 finally will be the year we get to see this great talent make the jump across the Pacific. We, as fantasy baseball enthusiasts, are a buzz with when and where this talent will land. I liken his talent level to Stephen Strasburg. That me be blasphemy to some, but I’m all in on Darvish.

I know there is warranted hesitancy when assessing Japanese pitchers now that we’ve seen several expensive mistakes over the past few years. Darvish is different. He’s young enough (25) and doesn’t put himself through all the stressful pitching regimen that his countrymen submit their arms to. Now nothing has been set in stone, but if Darvish makes the jump to the show, we will see him claim a front-end-of-the-rotation role and a $100 million price tag.

For fantasy purposes, Darvish gives great talent at what should be a discounted price. He’ll most likely find a draft position in the Daniel Hudson realm when the season draws closer. My head-over-heels feelings about him will not make me overreach like I might for Strasburg, but I will have my draft trigger firmly pressed if Darvish has the value I anticipate he will in 2012.

Clayton Kershaw SP LAD - I like Kershaw for a multitude of reasons. He’s a top-five guy in every sabermetric category. He was a 21-game winner in 2012, but I have a feeling most still will rank him outside their top three starting pitchers. For me, he’s the No. 1 pitcher to own. I like Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander, but if I decide that my fake team needs the best pitcher in the game, I will bypass those two for Kershaw.

He strikes out batters (9.57 K/9). He keeps the ball in the park (6.7 HR/FB). He’s a left-handed 24 year old. What would you not like when projecting him for 2012? He’s healthy and doesn’t have the mileage on his arm that some of the other top starting pitchers do. He’s great defensively (Gold Glove winner). I’m done talking about him. That should be enough to convince all of you that he’s worthy.

Now it’s time for some bounce-back studs.

Tommy Hanson SP ATL - Once thought of as the next great Atlanta Braves pitcher, Hanson has seen those expectations wane amidst injuries. My belief is the talent that had us all infatuated remains in the arm of Hanson. He has had to deal with several issues, but these injuries don’t necessarily lend to inconsistencies, or rather, consistently bad play. Of his 22 starts in 2011, he gave up more than three earned runs in only four starts. That’s awesome.

To give you an example, Verlander had seven starts out of 34 in which he gave up more than three earned runs. So Hanson had fewer bad games using this math than Verlander. (Of course, Verlander pitched more innings in his starts on average than Hanson.) The point is that Hanson is still a front-end-of-the-rotation guy you shouldn’t eliminate from your cheat sheet.

Zack Greinke SP MIL - I know we’ve all heard the phrase “outkicked coverage.” Well, Greinke “underkicked” his coverage. In what one could call the best pitched season with the worst results, Greinke showed why most thought he would find success in Milwaukee. He led baseball in K/9 with a 10.54 mark. His xFIP was also tops with a staggering 2.56. Greinke’s ERA of 3.83 will scare off the ignorant drafters, but his advanced statistics point to a stellar 2011 season.

One thing he will need to control to help offset that ERA and xFIP discrepancy is the flyball in order to keep the ball in the park. Similar to the next guy on this list, Greinke should have tons and tons of value at the draft table. I am assuming, of course, that your leaguemates don’t read my columns. I think Greinke will be very good in 2012, and I’ll have him ranked in my top seven or so, no lower than 10.

Josh Johnson SP MIA - What better way to give a guy confidence than to surround him with tons of offensive talent. If the offseason has shown us anything so far, it is that the Miami Marlins are going to spend what it takes to do just that. It will be scary to see what a healthy Johnson and a formidable lineup might be capable of.

I don’t think anyone can debate the talent level of Johnson when he pitches. He wasn’t quite as flawless in his shortened 2011 season as he was in 2010, but he was not nearly human enough to question his deity. Seriously, Johnson is as talented a starting pitcher as there is in baseball unless you consider health a skill.

Normally, I will not factor injuries into my evaluation of a player, but there are some guys like Grady Sizemore who force you to pay attention. Johnson is that kind of player. For every bit of skill that he has, he has an equal amount of risk. I won’t reach for Johnson in 2012, but if given the choice between him and a safer play with less talent, I will take Jonson all day, every day.

Tim Lincecum SP SFO - What happened to Lincecum in 2011? Maybe even worse, why could the Giants not give him support? It’s pretty incredible when a starting pitcher has a 2.74 ERA and a losing record in the same season. Granted, this was Lincecum’s worst season since his sophomore year. He posted his lowest strikeout rate and highest walk rate in that span.

That’s where my criticism will end. Lincecum is a competitor in every sense of the word. He is the definition of ace and doesn’t miss time to injury.

The walks don’t scare me, and the innings don’t either. I will have Lincecum back in my top five pitchers to begin the year, and I think that most drafters will let him slide. I think he had trouble locating his curveball and, therefore, was forced to lean more heavily on his slider. I expect him to take the offseason to bring that curveball back up to snuff, which should help his fastball by keeping the batters honest.

I’ve always loved Lincecum, and he may be the most likely of all these guys to find his way on all my teams in 2012.

Jon Lester SP BOS - Lester had a slight velocity drop (about 0.5 mph) on his fastball, which may or may not be to blame for his regression in strikeouts. In fact, Lester’s 2011 season was much more similar to his 2008 season than the dominant two-year stretch 2009-2010. He gave up a tad more home runs, but he had his best line drive rate of his career (15.9 percent). That at least tells me they weren’t hitting the ball hard against him.

It’s going to be a tough sell if you think Lester will be drafted as a top-10 pitcher like he was last year, but if you believe as I do that he’ll find a much more favorable value in 2012, then he should garner attention moving forward. I love his mentality and style of play. His cutter wasn’t as effective as it has been in the past, but Lester still has the makings of a top pitcher on your fantasy staff.

David Price SP TB - Price is from my home town, so I must say I’m slightly partial, but what some may see as a regression year for Price, I saw as growth. He had a better WAR, xFIP and K/9 and a lower BB/9, and he maintained his stellar .227 batting average against in the tough AL East. At just 26, Price should really start coming into his own. I think the progression of James Shields should only further Price’s growth in 2012.

I don’t think he’s necessarily a head case, but it seems that in high-stress situations, Price can struggle. Now, I know he had success in that role during the 2009 playoff run, but when he played for Vanderbilt and even last year down the stretch, he seemed to pitch better when the game wasn’t as crucial. That’s just my casual observation and doesn’t have much of anything to do with his 2012 fantasy value.

I really struggle to find holes in Price's game. My rose-colored glasses will always want him on my fantasy teams, and his continued growth will keep him there.

If you can walk out of a draft with Lincecum or Kershaw, Johnson, Lester, Hanson or Price, and Strasburg or Darvish, I promise you will have the best staff in your league. Now, to be a dominant all-around team, there must also be some balance, and I would never advise wasting all your money on front-line starters. It’s not ridiculous to think that you could grab three to four of these guys without compromising the integrity of your hitting.

Please let me know if you input any of these guys into your own draft strategy. It will be interesting to see if my draft process hunches will play out. Stay tuned for the "Ben’s 2012 Wish List: infielders" edition.


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